Yay Dan Shulman! I almost forgot...

There's something funny about Steven Wright.

What is the 1-0 ERA 3.00 line about?

Why not bring in Cecil to face Holt? I did not like that move at all.

keep your starters in, gibber.

Really?  Cecil in the 6th inning with a 7-2 lead?  I wouldn't have done that. 

Well, given the way Gibbons (and most managers) use a staff, it wasn't going to be Cecil.

As for taking out Stroman, he's had a couple long innings this game, so I can see thinking he's tired and wanting a fresh arm in there. This wasn't a Leon type "euagh?" for me.

This wasn't a Leon type "euagh?" for me.

My reaction exactly.  I am never excited about bringing in Chavez with multiple runners on because of his vulnerability to the home run, but I can at least see why Gibbons did what he did. 

I guess I'm more of a pragmatist (less orthodox) when it comes to bullpen usage. With Storen and Osuna rested and in reserve for the later innings, in that situation, I would have preferred an elite reliever with demonstrated competence in high-leverage situations. With a 7-2 lead and the Red Sox mounting what might be their biggest threat of the game, why lead with a weaker reliever (really a swingman who is unproven in the RC) and run a higher risk of letting Boston back in the game?

7-2 in the 6th and Not-Ortiz. Calling that unorthodox is an understatement.

Can we clone Sanchez and have him start and setup?

As exciting as it is to have him start (definitely the right decision long term) his presence in the pen has clearly been missed in first handful of games (including the game he started!).

Also, not using Storen at closer was a mistake. His confidence is shaken (limiting his value) and the Jays could get more value out of Osuna by using him more often in higher leverage situations earlier in games.

7-2 in the 6th with one out, the bases loaded in the RC, an underrated hitter at the plate, an important game against a key rival, and a fully rested bullpen.

Context matters.

Why would you prefer Cecil over Morales in that situation?

Giving somebody the closer job because you're worried he can't pitch in the 7th or 8th wouldn't be my way of thinking.

An underrated hitter who still posted a 98 wRC+ the past two years (and a .100 ISO), so an approximately average hitter with below average power. The Brock Holts of the world are not the ones to burn your best lefty on in the 6th with a 5 run lead (no matter what, since there can never be 4 or more runners on base at the same time). Cecil was used when he should have been used. And it didn't work out. That happens.

no matter what

That's what I mean - orthodoxy. I get that some people think that way; I just can't bring myself to do it.

What exactly do you think Brock Holt is? I'm getting the impression it's significantly better than average.

Morales was another option I guess. Holt actually has reverse splits over his career, so I can see why Gibbons went with Chavez. In any event, Cecil has been a vastly superior reliever to those two over the last few years. In that situation, I prefer to lead strong and put out the fire on the kitchen stove, rather than lead weak and then call the fire department when the entire house is about to burn down.

Morales would have likely seen young pinch hit for Holt.

I think in this case, they used water on the stove fire, but against all odds it was a magnesium fire. I mean, who cooks with gas anymore?

No matter what happens, the fact the Red Sox employ Craig Kimbrel will be annoying more than once or twice this season.

Yet again the offence fails to add on runs. The bullpen has blown 3 consecutive leads, which stings, but Jose, EE, Tulo & Martin have not started hitting yet....scary offence once they get on track.

I know it's early, but I'm starting to wonder about Tulo's current offensive ability. He's had about 200 PA as a Blue Jay, and has posted a wRC+ of about 90 over that stretch. To my untrained eyes, he has never really looked all that comfortable at the plate since the trade. His career wRC+ is 122, so you would expect him to be much better than this, even with some modest decline in skills due to age and injuries. I guess we'll have more data in a few months.

If you start the 6, it's a low leverage situation, but bases loaded one out, it's not.

Let's see, you give up a double. It happens.
You walk Ortiz. That's fine.
Ground ball at 3rd. That's good.
You give a walk. Replace the ace?

It's a though call because the reliever that was warming up isn't your top guy.
Not in the 6th. And he comes in with the bases loaded.

At this point the starters are 2-0 and the pen is 0-3.
The starters would have been 5-0 with an average pen.

What bothers me the most is using so many pitchers to not protect leads.

I don't particularly like Chavez to rescue Stroman, with the entire pen available.
I don't like Storen coming out after 7 pitches either.
I understand that Cecil had better odds against Ortiz,  but maybe he was supposed to pitch the next inning and was quite ready.

Nothing related to the game action itself.

I'd like to mention how enjoyable it was to have Dan Shulman doing play by play for a Blue Jays broadcast again. When I was a young lad and started following the team, he was the voice that made baseball accessible to me while I listened and watched. Now his presence as a pro play-by-play guy allows the broadcast usuals to lessen their load and play to their strengths, like how Buck is a great observer of specific action within the game, or how Pat Tabler is very good at being Pat Tabler.

You and me both, greenfrog. I'd be delighted to be proven wrong, but I think what we've seen from Tulo is what we can reasonably expect from him going forward. You would expect his injury history to have taken a greater toll on his defensive performance than his offensive abilities, but it's a funny game.

Eephus, you would think that would be the case, but instead Buck & Tabby somehow talked MORE than usual. How is that possible? You could hear Shulman roll his eyes more than once tonight after he asked a powder puff question and Buck answered it with a 5 minute speech about nothing. I wish there was some way to hear just the baseball noise.

I think Toronto must be only baseball town where after the manager pulls his purported ace in the 6th inning, with a 7-2 lead, to start his ritual clownshow bullpen escapade, and blows his third game in a row, that the fans are critiquing the announcers.

Hopefully the new front office can bring to an end the culture of incompetence that has characterized the franchise. Having seen Roy Hartsfield, Jimy one M, and Carlos Tosca, I find it hard to accuse any of them of being a worse field manager than John Gibbons. I can't see him lasting beyond June. In 2004, Tosca was kept on for over 100 games, but I'm hoping that we have a more professional front office now.

Having seen Roy Hartsfield, Jimy one M, and Carlos Tosca, I find it hard to accuse any of them of being a worse field manager than John Gibbons

I find it easy! Very, very easy! I am, no doubt, much older than you are (law of averages - I'm older than most humans. You could look it up!). While you may have seen them, you may not remember them particularly well. Especially Roy and Jimy.

(Gives a little shudder...)

Morales would have likely seen Young pinch hit for Holt.

Academic. Morales felt something amiss in his shoulder while warming up. Couldn't come in.

And another game ends with the Utley rule being invoked, on Colby Rasmus' slide into second. A.J. Hinch says "It's a joke we lost the game based on that when there wasn't intent or contact. It was a baseball slide."

0-2 in one run games.

Gibbons bullpen management is no surprise. He has quick hooked relievers at the first sign of trouble for years. Personally I don't like it but like all approaches sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

My biggest concern right now is Cecil. Back from injury and has looked poor in ST and first two games. As the beginning and end of last season showed, the Jays need a good Brett Cecil. Hopefully he puts it together more quickly this year.

A blown 5 run lead isn't what I have in mind when I think one run games.

If Gibby can't keep this team over .500, this year's big mid season trade will be a new manager.

"....If Gibby can't keep this team over .500, this year's big mid season trade will be a new manager...."

Five games into the season, the Jays are 2-3 and the panic begins. 

I guess I should just be grateful that fans weren't panicking even earlier in the season.  People could have panicked when the Jays were 2-2.   Nobody did.  So how does one game change everything?  There are 162 games in the season, guys....

"...Hopefully the new front office can bring to an end the culture of incompetence that has characterized the franchise..."

You're referring to the "new front office" that brilliantly assembled the brand-new bullpen that imploded 3 times in the first 5 games, blowing the lead in each of the 3 games and causing all of the losses this season?

Actually I don't blame the front office at all, but if I used the absurd logic of some fans, I could just as easily blame "the front office" instead of Gibbons.  The front office assembled a bullpen of 8 relievers, of which 6 are new. Of those 6 new relievers, only Biagini and Morales have failed to give up any runs in their brief appearances so far.  Of the two holdovers from last season, only Osuna has pitched well.  So where is the logic in blaming Gibbons?  Should we assume that the same pitchers who blew the leads would have pitched flawlessly if only their sequence was slightly shuffled?  It wasn't Gibbons on the mound when those leads were blown, as far as I can tell.

The guy complaining about "the culture of incompetence" and the "ritual clownshow bullpen escapade" is the same guy who spent the whole off-season writing praise of Rogers and Shapiro.  If there really is a "culture of incompetence" (which is rather dubious after the 2015 successes), shouldn't the owners and president and general manager be accountable for that?  Why blame the underlings?  What is this paradigm -- is it the "wise czar who was unknowingly betrayed by his traitorous underlings?"  If there is incompetence in the organization, why single out one man in the organization as the only one to blame?

My fondest wish is that we could develop some perspective here.  The Jays have an excellent team that succeeded greatly in 2015 and has a chance of doing very well in 2016.  Are we really going to have extreme rhetoric about "ritual clownshows" and "incompetence" after every loss?  Even a good team is going to lose 70 times in a season, so that's a lot of days where we'll have to listen to nonsense.

On the positive side, I liked Bautista's approach against Uehara. Smart and disciplined but it just didn't work out. Biagini also looked much better.

I can see why the team kept Biagini ... he looked good out there.

Great vibe at the dome last night, but their one beer per person policy lead to some ridiculous lines ... you couldn't even walk to the bathroom without fighting through a crowd.  Rogers just continues to make the fan experience as negative as possible.  Props to the vendors for staying cheerful.

Also on a positive vibe is this story penned by Marcus Stroman about his love for the city.

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/marcus-stroman-blue-jays-toronto-acl-comeback/

I bought 4 beers at once. Maybe the 100 level is different than the nose bleeds

I'd still love to know if Floyd can start or not. I guess its too late for the 6 man rotation.

so much for the upgraded bullpen.

The only thing I'll criticize gibber for is pulling Stroman. I want stroman to have the chance to get out of that.

but i'm not surprised that with all the hullabaloo from top of management on down about the deep bullpen that gibber has been a bit overeager to use it.

I thought pulling Stroman was reasonable, he seemed to be laboring, and the game was moving at a snail's pace, the top of the 6th inning was probably around 9:30, Stroman had been working for awhile. To me, last night seemed more a case of not executing, rather than the managerial blunders of the final game in Tampa with Leon. Storen gave up 2 hits in 3ABs then Cecil gave up consecutive hits. So 2 of your 3 best RPs giving up 4 consecutive hits is hardly on the manager.

Just feels like some growing pains of bullpen assignments. The offense, other than the 4th, had very poor results again despite what I thought were some good at-bats. They'll be ok.

I bought 4 beers at once. Maybe the 100 level is different than the nose bleeds

Ya, ya, you've made this point before. (Jerjapan i dont think you read my post correctly. Probably related to why you watch games from the nose bleeds).  I forgot that you were morally superior to those of us who sit in the cheap seats.

Now could you stop trolling and stick to baseball please?  I'm sure I'm not the only one who's tired of it. 

please be good dickey.

even though he's the only out so far this inning I appreciate that leadoff at bat by Pillar - down quick 0-2 but battled back to a nice long 6 or 7 pitch at bat. I'll take that for his outs.

wait - carrera is in the lineup and hitting 6th? is gibby trying to get fired?

I've been pleasantly surprised by the quality of his ABs so far this year, and the early O-Swing% and SwStr% numbers give some comfort to the confirmation bias. He's waiting for strikes to swing at, and making contact when he does swing. He still might not walk a lot, but waiting for decent pitches to hit might allow him to ride a high BABIP to a decent OBP. It'a something to keep an eye on going forward, at least.

I'm getting a bit worried that Bautista's decline in RF has accelerated. I'm not too confident in him making anything but routine plays.

dickey drives me nuts.

I wouldn't want to be Thole catching Dickey today, that ball is moving. I have no idea how to gauge Dickey ... he's got the movement but the Sox are tagging him.

Carrera is getting too much play IMO. I didn't mind him making the team when I thought he'd be cheering from the bench, but what does he offer as a starter? It's not like he can sub in for Jose on D - and agreed that jose isn't looking great in right.

He's definitely looking good at bat though ...

Historically, April/May are Dickey's worst months - something to keep in mind in the early going. Also, according to fangraphs, Dickey's FIP so far today is 0.60 (xFIP 2.29), so by those measures at least, he's been pitching pretty well.

I was ready to move on from dickey this offseason. Picking up that option wasn't a no brainer to me.

Jer you brought up your trouble buying beer. I shared my experience.

They probably wont serve more than a beer at a time if they think your drunk. Altho my buddy was pretty drunk n he bought a round.

It's strange. For me, by and large his knuckleball has looked good, but the few rollers he's made in the zone have had some good swings on them to hit the ball hard to the opposite field. It's not a good outing by any means, but for me it's closer to one than the box score makes it look. It's something potentially to build off of, anyway.

The dedicated knuckle ball receiver isn't doing himself or Dickey any favours this afternoon. The knuckler is dancing, but this is Thole's ticket to MLB is it not? Dickey has been extremely unlucky today with passed balls, and Ramirez's ball off the turf seam. Offensively, the high K rates continue.

I wouldve been ok starting thole n dickey in AAA

"It's strange."

the knuckler always is.

Why not pinch hit for Thole with 2 on and Dickey out of the game? Don't understand that one, other than wanting to give Martin more rest.

And I'll say it again - Barney may well be the better option to fill in at 2B than Goins.

Mom used to say "if you can't say something nice, don't say anything" so I'm not gonna say anything about the Jays. Nice day to spend outside here in the sunny Shuswap anyway. :)

bullpen chokes up 3 games in a row....and now the best reliever is pitching mop up duty. no matter what the reasons, that's not a good look for the manager.

Well, on the plus side it can only get better from here. Between the weird seam bounce and hard hit balls directly at the Red Sox we definitely can't say we're getting lucky. We also can't say we're playing well, on either side of the ball. However, this team won't hit .220 or whatever all year, and our bullpen should improve. One day we'll start playing well, and if we start getting lucky too we'll be unstoppable.

Gibbons said that Carrera was in the lineup to protect Saunders' hamstring in a day game after a night game.  Saunders did not play on Wednesday and the club had Thursday off.  If this is what is needed for him to stay healthy (i.e. more than an occasional day off), the club ought to have Ceciliani here now.

The Jays could really use a Zobrist-type utility player - someone who can play multiple positions competently and give the team quality PAs. The team now has a lot of veterans who may (or should) be limited to about 130-140 games (instead of the 140-150 games they've averaged historically) because of injury issues. In a go-for-it year, it would be good to have a high-level veteran to replace some of those PAs and innings on defense.

Things should be a lot better if/when Travis returns, of course.

So whats killing the Jays?
OPS sub 600 so far: Pillar, Tulowitzki, Goins, Carrera, Colabello, Martin (118)

OPS over 900: Bautista, Donaldson

That explains the issue right away. Just 2 guys with a great OPS and 6 with very bad ones.

ERA's at 0: Biagini, Morales, Osuna
ERA's sub 3: Sanchez
ERA 5-9.99: Stroman, Floyd, Leon, Dickey, Cecil
ERA over 10: Storen

Again, lots of guys off to bad starts but few off to good starts.

Realistically this isn't what anyone would expect to continue. This team right now isn't pitching, isn't hitting and thus isn't winning. Safe to say that the hitters and pitchers will get better soon and with this many issues early I think we should be glad to have 2 wins and should've had 4 with a tiny bit of luck. The Jays right now have to hope no one gets off to a great start (Baltimore is 4-0 right now) so they can stay close until things get back in sync.

John's right, of course, about the small sample size. But what I don't like is the re-emergence of the type of player that I thought the organization had finally banished after last year's trade deadline -- "he's terrible, but cheap and out of options so he stays." Carrera badly lost his spring training competition but won the job anyway to protect the "asset"...shades of Tolleson, McCoy, Woodward, etc.

Time has shown, again and again, that if you give John Gibbons a player he will use him regularly. He plays all 25 guys, so if you care about keeping sub-replacement players off the field, you must remove them from John Gibbons' roster.

Marathon. How one finishes. Don't. I repeat don't. Don't eat the babies. This too shall pass.

"the re-emergence of the type of player that I thought the organization had finally banished after last year's trade deadline -- "he's terrible, but cheap and out of options so he stays." Carrera badly lost his spring training competition but won the job anyway to protect the "asset".."

this is the shapiro way. best get used to it.

So whats killing the Jays?
OPS sub 600 so far: Pillar, Tulowitzki, Goins, Carrera, Colabello, Martin (118)

OPS over 900: Bautista, Donaldson

That explains the issue right away. Just 2 guys with a great OPS and 6 with very bad ones.

Pillar, Tulo, Goins, Carrera, Cola and Martin could easily average an OPS around 600 for the entire month. Or more. Tulo and Martin are getting older, the others aren't all-stars.

I'll point out that they have scored enough runs to win in all 6 games played so far.
That is not the problem at all. If anything, expect to see fewer runs scored next week when the Yankees come to town.

ERA's at 0: Biagini, Morales, Osuna
ERA's sub 3: Sanchez
ERA 5-9.99: Stroman, Floyd, Leon, Dickey, Cecil
ERA over 10: Storen

Again, lots of guys off to bad starts but few off to good starts.

Stroman is not off to a bad start. It's not his fault that the manager brought in Chavez to score all the runners he left on base. Stroman gave only 5 hits on Friday, most of them singles. That should be enough to win with 7 runs of support. It's the same thing with Floyd. He pitched fine but the manager panicked and pull him out.

Realistically this isn't what anyone would expect to continue.

It's a team. Some players get hot while other slump.
Some players will get hurt. I don't see how we can expect them to score 8 or 9 runs every night.

I don't know if Chavez and Leon will get any better. It's really up in the air.
It's the same with Dickey. He racks up the wins and the losses. You have to live with it and let him soak innings.
At the end of the year he'll be around 13-13 and that's fine.
It's hard to know with Cecil. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable.
Storen pitched poorly in Washington after he was demoted from the closer role. (for Papelbon)
Looking at his splits from last year. tOPS+ of 56 when closing. tOPS+ of 107 when setting up.
With  tOPS+ 34 with bases empty, tOPS+ 114 with men on.
That's for a whole year.

It's really unfortunate that the best reliever is now a slave to the save and can't be used when needed.

We had Carrera in left field last year and it wasn't working.

The team isn't playing any worse their their opponents are.
Many decisions being made aren't working out. Maybe it's just luck, but maybe we're playing the long odds.

I don't think you can blame Carrera on Shapiro.

That one falls under pre-existing conditions.
It seems to me that Shapiro acquired several options for the 4th outfielder.

this is the shapiro way. best get used to it.

Did you even follow the Jays under Anthopoulos?

The Shaprio way seems to be to let the division-winning manager have the team he wants within the confines of reasonable asset management, while the Anthopoulos way was to let the unproven manager with a poor track record have the team he wanted within the confines of reasonable asset management.

I know this is likely not happening -- Aaron Hill becomes a Jays again... Looking at the Brewers this season, they could use Matt Hague at 3B and Hill at 2B and 3B.

Anyway, for the moment, could Saunders be slotted behind EE and in front of Tulo ?

You must have been dancing of joy when Shapiro signed Happ.
And when AA brought back Gibby.

Franklin Morales placed on the DL to open a spot for Estrada. Back down to one lefty and I guess we'll get to see more of Arnold Leon, though I've seen enough already...

I'd be very surprised if Carrera was Atkins or Shapiro's call. Very surprised. It seemed like every roster decision that lasted to the end of the spring was Gibby's (the "reverse split killer" Ryan Tepera making the team for no reason was sort of a dead giveaway). Pompey/Saunders is an example of the FO using options to their advantage. Carrera was simply a manager bringing back someone he was comfortable with from the year before. To suggest the team was 'afraid' to lose a replacement level player like Carrera on waivers is laughable, especially to a FO that understands the value of marginal wins. Carrera provides nothing.

Gibbons is the same over-thinking manager he was last season with the pen from the looks of it. There is no reason to play with "match-ups" with Storen and Cecil. Let them pitch the entire inning. If they give up a couple of singles, it's not a big time. Hard hits and/or home runs, sure, take them out, but singles are not indicative of struggling. The Floyd/Leon thing was inexcusable, but even replacing Storen mid-inning was strange. If that's the way Gibbons is going to use him, then what's the point of even having him?

It will be interesting to see if Gibbons can survive if the team starts the year 23-30 like they did last season. I don't think this FO will be as trusting as AA was with him.

Yeah, I think the management team has a replacement in mind for Gibbons and plans to bring him in come June or July. Meanwhile they try to get all the assets they can and let Gibby have what he wants from that list.

They know 2017 will be a tough year with Bautista/Encarnacion/Cecil/Saunders/Dickey/Storen/Smoak/Floyd/Morales all being free agents. That is a lot of players to replace, from stars to scrubs. 4 hitters (2 stars), a starter, 2 key relievers, a swing man, a scrub. If Gibbons crashes and burns then the new manager gets a pass for a bit and new players brought in will be given a real shot without as much pressure.

7-2 in the 6th with one out, the bases loaded in the RC, an underrated hitter at the plate, an important game against a key rival, and a fully rested bullpen.

Exactly my sentiment, only punctuated by "having to give Osuna work" during garbage time yesterday.

It's a long season, but it's been disheartening to see the things that frustrated me the most coming out of ST biting us early.

"Did you even follow the Jays under Anthopoulos?"

yep. I saw a young GM learning on the job, learning from his mistakes, and finally abandoning the incremental asset-building game and succeeding as a result.

For Shapiro, though, this is his permanent, unchangeable core.

Just on friday, at Pitch Talks, he finally expanded a bit on the saunders-bruce scenario, and confirmed exactly what I thought. He straight up said that he liked Saunders' upside better, but Bruce brought an extra year of control and more certainty. That is the way Shapiro thinks, and will always think. The priority is asset management and lowering risk, not upside. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but that's the way it's gonna be.

"I'd be very surprised if Carrera was Atkins or Shapiro's call. Very surprised."

I wouldn't.

All the guys who "won" the final spots on the roster are guys who would have had to go on waivers if they didn't make the team. That's no coincidence, imo, and I doubt the manager cares as much about asset management as about winning games.

Maybe Shapiro gave him a choice between carrera and lake, but probably not much more than that.

I see a GM who didn't learn from his mistakes of selling young assets off and doubled down on it. And then he left when he likely foresaw what Tulo and Martins contracts would turn into, not to mention the PR nightmare of having to deal with the necessity of letting EE and/or Jose go. I'm very concerned right now with having to pay Martin and Tulo for multiple years of 20 million given how quick they're aging and their injury histories.

He left the team with 2 contracts committed past this year.

what a nightmare.

1st must win game of the season!

Bautista learned from his stupid slide and made a great hard CLEAN slide there. Not difficult.

Much too early yet to panic, this Jays' Roster is too good to suck for long. I do think easing up in Spring Training so they have something left at the end of the Season is never a good idea no matter how good it sounded earlier. I don't think everyone is as ready as they could be. The Hitting will come around soon, while Defense never goes away.

I'm not sure what Chavez is right now, because what he's shown thus far doesn't explain his use. This Bullpen is much better than last year's, but it's still giving Gibbons the same type of problems he had last year. Who can he trust? Another bad start to the season for Cecil, even though it's just two games. Is it just a timing issue or of more significance?

Gibbons spoke about how long the season was and the need for conserving assets which totally surprised the hell out of me. I can see the need, even though others don't seem to. Maintain as many alternatives as possible for as long as possible. I don't see any changes until a Roster squeeze is evident.

Paying Tulo and Martin $20M a season each on their declines is definitely going to be an issue that the team has to work around. I still think Martin can recoup the value of his contract by the end of his deal, but the decline towards the end of it will hurt. Tulo is more of a wild card. He essentially has 5/100 left with a full NTC in his 30's. Luckily they are both 2-way players so whatever they lose offensively in their 30's they should be able to provide on the defensive end, but if the defense starts to slip, then it's danger time.

I said prior to the season that Shapiro/Atkins just catered to Gibbons because they know the 2016 team is an extension of the prior two months of 2015. The team is still good enough to make the playoffs, and other than adding depth in the rotation, they kept the roster relatively unchanged. The fact that they have accepted that this is AA/Gibbons team is fine with me. They are letting the AA core sink or swim in their last season together. Whether it means giving Gibbons enough rope to hang himself is a separate issue. Pillar leading off, Carrera making the team, letting Tepera's "reverse split" narrative grow, Sanchez to the rotation (this move looks good for now), Osuna as the closer rather than the 7th/8th inning guy, etc, seem like Gibbons moves for familiarity and comfort reasons.

Whether they should be catering to Gibbons is something that should be questioned, but as someone else mentioned, I think it's somewhat strategic as well (scapegoating purposes if things go sour). The fact that he got a 2 year deal indicates to me that they feel comfortable that they can make a run in 2016 regardless of who the manager is, and then can fire him in 2017 if the team struggles and give the new manager a clean slate. But you never never really know.

Our D finally showed up!

$20m per year for even an average SS and C is good spending, and they'll most likely be well above average for most the remaining years.

Completely agree with John's analysis here. The numbers are pretty simple, especially if you look at the team numbers. OPS of .654 as a team (20th), ERA of 5.08 (also 20th). These numbers will obviously not continue as such (the hitting more obviously than the pitching). Things will come around in time - even great teams have slumps.

Mostly came here to say though that I love watching Estrada pitch. He sure gets some funny-looking swings, and is consistently in control of at-bats. He looks like one of those guys who consistently will outperform their FIP, and I expect he'll nicely serve the role of a #3 (give or take) this year.

Let the heated debate about when Gibbons should / should not take Estrada out of the game begin.

Buck Martinez keeps calling Steven Wright David Wright. You would think someone would correct him...

He also called Josh Thole Josh Donaldson early on. Of course, if he wouldn't insist on saying their full name almost every time (or maybe *gasp* mixing in some pronouns), there would be far fewer opportunities for this all-too-common Buck mistake.

Goins is having a very nice game today.

On broadcasters calling the wrong name, I have a feeling that the unwritten rule is not to correct your partner on air. Jerry H. screws up a lot of names and Wilner (who seems like the kind of guy who takes a lot of pleasure in correcting others) never corrects him. And maybe the second part of that unwritten rule is that you don't correct yourself unless you do so right after the mistake is made

Shutouts are nice, but we need a win here.

Using the bullpen is fine, just don't load up the bases first.

You're right on that, Super Bluto - if you don't catch it right away, just move on. I just think this tandem does weird things that sets themselves up for more of these errors than most. Of course, if that was their worst flaw, I might almost think it was endearing. It is not.

On broadcasters calling the wrong name, I have a feeling that the unwritten rule is not to correct your partner on air. Jerry H. screws up a lot of names and Wilner (who seems like the kind of guy who takes a lot of pleasure in correcting others) never corrects him. And maybe the second part of that unwritten rule is that you don't correct yourself unless you do so right after the mistake is made

I just can't listen to Howarth or Buck at all. Unfortunately this means no radio; at least for TV broadcasts I can mute the volume.

I was in the US last week and it was such a pleasure listening to Shulman call the first game of the series (broadcast nationally on ESPN).

If people are going to get upset about Shapiro's asset management with respect to players like Carrera and Dickey, they should probably also acknowledge Shapiro's success (in a tiny sample size) with some of his other off-season moves. Happ and Estrada, in particular, have both been very good. And putting Sanchez in the rotation has looked like the right move.

It might turn out that the team has a very good, inexpensive, deep, and low-risk (in terms of contract length) rotation. That would be a major win for the front office in my books.

To me, this article strongly suggests that Price would have come back to Toronto if the Jays had made a competitive bid for him (especially if Anthopoulos had remained GM or been promoted to president):

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/david-price-opens-departure-blue-jays/

I think the Price question will recede from fans' consciousness if the Jays end up winning the division, but I could see it lingering as a sore spot - raising once again the perennial issue of Rogers' level of commitment to the Jays - if the team misses the playoffs (or gets ousted early on) for want of an ace (and "ultimate team guy" as Gibbons described Price).

I suspect the Price issue will only be big if the Jays just miss the playoffs this year or if Price goes on to win a couple of Cy's while the Jays struggle due to weak starting pitching.

Odds are the further out we get and the longer the Red Sox go without reaching the playoffs the more fans will go 'meh' to it.

Plus of course, this winter the media will go nuts when either Bautista or Encarnacion sign with the Red Sox as well to replace Ortiz thus putting Price into the background much like Farrell has moved into the background.

Although I'm kinda tired about talking about Price, I will say that if Price was really that interested in returning to Toronto on a "competitive bid", Price always could have simply told Toronto what he would take to return to Toronto.  If he did that, why not come right out and say what it was?

Price was always taking top dollar, or something very close to it.

Inexpensive is a bit strong when describing Dickey, Happ and Estrada.

No question Price wanted top dollar and to stay here he MIGHT have taken one less guaranteed year or SLIGHTLY less money but he'd have been at least $30 mil a year for 6 years and sorry, but if I was a GM I'd say no to that too as the risk is so high for the team there it is crazy. Unless the Jays felt he was the last piece needed for a WS run (ala Jack Morris & David Winfield in 1992) then going nuts for him wouldn't make sense and we know he isn't the last piece as he was here for the playoffs and we know how that went.

Right now the Jays are in 1986 mode - just won a title after a long wait, had the better team but lost to a good/lucky Royals team. The post-85 title lost the manager (Bobby Cox, a HOF'er) and did little in the offseason (years later it was a useful one with Luis Sojo signed as a free agent, and Mark Whiten drafted in the old winter draft). Mid-Season they traded their top winner from the previous year (Doyle Alexander) for a minor leaguer (Duane Ward - very useful years later). The new manager made a lot of dumb mistakes (gave future All-Star Cecil Fielder only 49 PA before saying 'screw it' [602 OPS] and putting a old vet in his last year the DH job [Cliff Johnson]). A 25 year old was kept in the pen despite showing great endurance and incredible effectiveness (Eichhorn - 157 IP in 69 games, no idea why he wasn't tried in the rotation given the mess it was that year, even Duane Ward got a start).

So the challenge now is for the team not to repeat the key mistakes from the past. Namely not giving kids a real shot who might be very good (Pillar is the youngest hitter on the team who has played in his age 27 season). Osuna, Sanchez and Stroman are the only ones in their age 25 and under season right now. I'd say only Pompey and Tellez are young hitters near the majors at the moment (AAA & AA).

you forgot Travis and Hutch. both 25.

and of course he's the last piece in a contender. with Price on this team we'd be consensus favorites, elite in every facet.

Price 30
Stroman .5
1 of Dickey/Estrada 12
1 of sanchez/hutch/osuna/floyd/xxx .5
1 of sanchez/hutch/osuna/floyd/xxx .5

43.5

Stroman 0.5
Dickey 12
Estrada 12
Happ 12
chavez 5

41.5

1 of Dickey/Estrada 12

As I've indicated in previous threads, I was really hoping the team could re-invest Dickey's contract (and by extension, Thole's roster spot) elsewhere during the offseason. I'm actually surprised Shapiro rolled with Dickey given his aversion to risk - Dickey's age alone screams drop-off. I suppose he's gambling that it won't happen THIS season. Hopefully it doesn't, but he's going to fall off the proverbial cliff relatively soon. Nobody beats father time.

Regardless, I don't think the team would be any worse off with Floyd or Hutch in that final rotation spot. I'd love to see him converted into another quality reliever, with some extra money for trade deadline maneuverings.

Dickey's age alone screams drop-off.

Does it? Knuckleballers are notorious for aging slowly. Wakefield retired at 45, Phil Niekro was pitching at 48 and Hoyt Wilhelm's last pitch was 16 days before his 50th birthday.

No matter how many times you post it, it will never be the case that Price signed for only one year. Bringing that I misinformation into every thread, in both the off season and now the regular season, is very tiresome.

"I'm actually surprised Shapiro rolled with Dickey given his aversion to risk"


Dickey was brought back precisely due to 'risk aversion', although I'm not sure that's fair to Dickey. He has thrown 225, 215 and 214 innings the past three seasons, and his RA9-WAR has gotten better each season (2.4, 2.6, 3.6). For $12M over one year, that's pretty much a no brainer contract. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of having Thole around either, and replacing Dickey with a higher upside 'conventional' arm would be ideal, but the Jays rotation is by no means a lock even after a solid first week, and Dickey has a track record. Plus, his start against Boston looked more like bad luck than a sign of his knuckleball not working (9 K, 2 BB, 0 HR).

It's a long season. The Orioles are 5-0. No need to draw conclusions yet.

"No matter how many times you post it, it will never be the case that Price signed for only one year. Bringing that I misinformation into every thread, in both the off season and now the regular season, is very tiresome."

I never posted he waw signed for one year.

Of course, i view having price for more than one year as a good thing, not a bad thing.

Yeah, I was just talking about who is on the roster playing for under 25's. That was why no Travis or Hutch. To be honest Travis was blanked from my mind while I wrote that. Hutch is in AAA now. Both are dead on 25 too with neither having a lot of ML success. I'm hopeful with both but given Hutch couldn't make the team in spring and Travis is DL'ed and has just 239 ML PA's so far in his career it is hard to be excited about either. Skipped them both as prospects since if you are in the minors odds are you won't be a big help until next year at the earliest.

The one oddity from yesterday's game was (as Martinez and Tabler pointed out) the decision to warm up Cecil in the bottom of the eighth.  For the benefit of those who weren't watching, in the top of the 8th, the Red Sox had Pedroia on base with one out, Bogaerts up, in a 2-0 game with Ortiz, Hanley and Shaw following.  Storen was pitching and no one was warming.  Bogaerts grounded into a DP.  In the bottom of the inning, Donaldson homered and Cecil joined Osuna in the bullpen.  When the Jays did not score, Osuna came into the game for the save.  I can only infer that if the Jays had tacked on another run, Cecil would have come on because it was a non-save situation.  Perhaps there is some other explanation that I am missing.

The Jays have one lefty in the pen.  If 4-0 in the ninth and a left-leaning lineup coming up is a "lefty situation" in Gibbons' view (even more than a 2-0 lead with 2 runners on in the eighth, which would have been the situation if Bogaerts got a hit), it's clear that they need another a lefty.  I don't like Gibbons' management of the pen, but at this point, it is up to Shapiro to adapt to it.  Shapiro had a decision to make in the off-season about Gibbons and having retained him, he needs to work with Gibbons.  This means not hoarding prospects at the back end of the pen, much as he would like to. 

it's hard to be excited about a kid whose only month in the majors won rookie of the month? really?

besides, how many teams do you see out there with more and better 25 and unders than stroman, sanchez, osuna, travis (pompey, hutch)?

I don't get how people think it's common for teams to have a group of kids this good.

Travis is, if healthy, a terrific young player- perhaps the best second baseman in baseball. That's a big if.

Venditte for Leon and Cecilliani for Carrera are the moves that interest me right now.  Little things to help the club stay on an even keel in the early going. 

Does it? Knuckleballers are notorious for aging slowly. Wakefield retired at 45, Phil Niekro was pitching at 48 and Hoyt Wilhelm's last pitch was 16 days before his 50th birthday.

I get that, but Dickey's secret sauce has been throwing his knuckler for velocity - somewhere around 80mph. When he's struggled, he's specifically cited this as a cause at times. I would have to think this makes him more susceptible than knuckleballers who've lived in the 60s and low 70s (also - longevity even for these guys is a mixed bag; Tom Candiotti last pitched as a 41 year old)

Maybe it's recency bias (i.e. his non-usefulness during the playoffs) but in terms of $$ allocation, I'd have been much more comfortable diverting those funds to other areas of weakness and letting Floyd/Hutch/whoever roll with it.

For the benefit of those who weren't watching, in the top of the 8th, the Red Sox had Pedroia on base with one out, Bogaerts up, in a 2-0 game with Ortiz, Hanley and Shaw following. Storen was pitching and no one was warming. Bogaerts grounded into a DP. In the bottom of the inning, Donaldson homered and Cecil joined Osuna in the bullpen. When the Jays did not score, Osuna came into the game for the save. I can only infer that if the Jays had tacked on another run, Cecil would have come on because it was a non-save situation. Perhaps there is some other explanation that I am missing.

I was at the game, and I was a little mystified that Cecil wasn't warming in the top of the 8th. I assume that the main reason to have Cecil ready would be to pitch to Ortiz in a close situation. Perhaps the Jays wanted to wait to see how Storen did first. If Storen had gotten into trouble, they could have had Cecil start warming up, then gone through the whole routine of bringing in the pitching coach to talk to Storen while Cecil continued to get ready.

Had the Jays had only a 2-0 lead going into the ninth, they might have used Cecil to pitch to Ortiz and then brought Osuna in. With a three-run lead, they were more comfortable bringing Osuna in to pitch to Ortiz - even if he launches one, it's still only 3-1.

They starting warming up Cecil after the Donaldson homer, at least according to the broadcast.

So this Trevor Story guy, not even a top prospect, is off to some kind of start playing SS for the Rockies ... and Miguel Castro looks great thus far too.  Suddenly their end of the Tulo deal is looking a lot better...

Jose's charges were dropped as his wife refused to be a witness, but he's likely to (and should) get a suspension anyway.  Sad to see his fall from grace, I really enjoyed watching him play for us.   

Oh, and BP had this to say about Jeff Hoffman's first AAA start:  "Hoffman had an excellent start to the 2016 season, throwing six shutout innings with six strikeouts and three walks against an experienced Tacoma lineup. Hoffman sat 94-95 mph, hitting as high as 97, and he held his velocity all the way until the last batter or two he faced."

Even with Tulo scuffling to start the year, I still like that deal from our POV.

Looks like David Price was under the impression he was pitching in a playoff game today. 

and Kimbrel takes the loss.  Suck it, Boston.

thoroughly enjoyable learning that price and kimbrel ruined the sox home opener.

"....Pillar leading off, Carrera making the team, letting Tepera's "reverse split" narrative grow, Sanchez to the rotation (this move looks good for now), Osuna as the closer rather than the 7th/8th inning guy, etc, seem like Gibbons moves for familiarity and comfort reasons...."

Not just "familiarity and comfort."  All of these decisions are either completely valid or at least arguably defensible.  I'm definitely glad that Osuna has been pitching in the 9th inning this season, rather than Storen. Pillar is not the ideal leadoff guy, but neither is Tulo, whose OBP this season has been even worse than Pillar, and neither is Saunders, whose .474 SLG would be wasted in the leadoff spot.  And why are you blaming Gibbons for a "narrative" on Tepera that briefly emerged on a few blogs and sports websites about a fringe pitcher who is currently in the minors?  Would you expect Gibbons to proclaim publicly that Tepera has trouble with LHB?

osuna closing might not only be because he's awesome, but also because storen's velocity hasn't been there yet this year for some reason.

I find it easy! Very, very easy! I am, no doubt, much older than you are (law of averages - I'm older than most humans. You could look it up!). While you may have seen them, you may not remember them particularly well. Especially Roy and Jimy.

I suspect you're wrong there on every account. If I can remember Roy and Jimy, chances are I'm probably not younger than the average person (39,) as you suggest. In fact, given that Hartsfield was fired in '79, there's a good chance the average person doesn't remember Hartsfield. I was in my late 30's when Jimy one M got canned. But moreover, while Roy may have been the worst of the lot, Tosca was worse than Jimy and Jimy was also (sadly) better than Gibbons. In fact Jimy, unlike either Roy, Tosca or Gibbons, was at least able to land another major league managing job, which neither Roy, Tosca nor Gibbons could do. That's not definitive of course, but it's probably at least some indicator of 'badness'.

Tosca's schtick of course, was 'one relief batter per pitcher'. Batter hits left, pitcher must throw left. It was unbearable to watch. With Gibbons, his use of pitchers is overall similar, but it is his use (or misuse) of starters that is so depressing.

On Friday, he took out his ace in the 6th to blow a 5 run lead. Stroman had given up 6 hits against a very good-hitting Red Sox team. He brought in the inestimable Jesse Chavez, a guy who makes sense as a depth starter, but not as a 'game situation' reliever of your best pitcher. It was 7-2. If the Red Sox came back to hammer Stroman instead of Gibbons and his Bullpen Show, then all the power to them. We won't get to see if Stroman could pitch himself out of trouble of course, because Gibbons never gave him the chance.
,
I commented earlier in the week that blowing games when leading after 7 isn't a common thing, yet Toronto lost two such games in their opening series. I'm left to wonder if ever a team has in its first five games lost two games that it was leading after 7 and a third with a 5 run lead in the 6th, in its first five games. I suspect this may be uncharted waters.

their one beer per person policy

Apparently the 'blame Rogers' crew is so desperate for material they make up new 'policies'.

It's not made up at all.

https://twitter.com/sbrooksbaseball/status/718631843088764930?lang=en

(why one person one beer? --- Same policy applied to past home openers.)

Jimy was also (sadly) better than Gibbons.

Well, if you had a first place team and you didn't want to finish first again - Jimy was definitely your man.

More to the point - and I'm not going to talk about game management because I think it's about the least significant part of the job - Jimy's defining trait as a manager was the endless juggling. Pitchers went back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation, and back and forth again. He quite literally changed his starting second baseman every six weeks for two whole seasons. And so on and so forth. No one knew what their job was supposed to be. It's simply not an approach that I think very highly of. And I say that knowing full well that the two most successful managers of the last half century - Stengel and Torre - were themselves both compulsive jugglers. (And even Stengel and Torre managed to fail everywhere they went until they got to the Bronx).

I don't see how Pillar leading off is even remotely defensible. When Travis gets back, you could make a case that Pillar is the worst hitter on the team. Given that he doesn't draw walks and doesn't have much power, he's someone who will have to BABIP his way into a good season offensively, and while that's possible, it's not something I'd bank on. If Tulo doesn't want to lead off, then put Saunders there, at least against RHP.

Carrera and Tepera should not have made the team, and while Tepera making it wasn't really a huge deal, as you've already seen, we will see more of Carrera than any of us really want to. The 4th OF will play a lot. I said this prior to the season. No team is 'afraid' to lose Carrera types on waivers. Not when guys like Will Venable are released in the spring. Gibbons clearly liked Carrera, which is fine, but to suggest it was the right move is pushing it.

I'm fine with Osuna as closer. He was going to be a reliever anyway, so it's not like the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning was going to change his IP totals at all. Point is, a lot of the roster decisions for 2016 came down to Gibby's call. I don't think the team had any intentions of trading for Chavez to be a 1 inning reliever, for example. Gibbons is managing the roster the way he feels is best, for better or worse, and Shapiro/Atkins seem to have allowed that on purpose (for whatever reason).

As usual, Mike Green has the sensible take. Leon and Carrera need to go, and the team needs another lefty reliever and a 4th outfielder who is actually good at something. I'm hopeful both moves will happen tomorrow, when the 10-day minimum for minor league assignments has passed.

we have multiple reports now that shapiro wantdd to keep Sanchez and osuna in asset managementy type roles this year, while gibby insisted on putting them into primetime best players on the teamy type roles.

early returns are in favor of gibby.

meanwhile, players like leon and carrera are here mostly due to contract status. happ too, for that matter.

Care to explain how Osuna was going to be in an "asset management" role, whatever that means? He was going to be in the pen regardless. Whether he was closer or set-up man or 7th inning guy was immaterial. Likely the Jays will lose a bit of money in arbitration if saves still equal $$$ when Osuna can start cashing in, but other than that, the only way to 'manage' the 'asset' would have been to demote him and turn him into a SP. That was never going to happen with him.

As far as Sanchez, if anything, the Jays were ready to maximize 2016 wins by having him in the pen. That's the opposite of what you're implying Shapiro had in mind. Again, asset management would have involved demoting him and using his options to preserve service time. It was only when he came into ST throwing like he's never thrown before that things changed, and frankly, that was a good scenario to play out. At least the Jays had Chavez and Floyd there in case Sanchez was still the same old guy he always was. If he turns into something better, then that's something I'm sure the FO will be glad to live with.

Leon is the only guy who was 'saved' due to lack of options, and it's not the FO's fault that Gibby used him the way he did against Tampa. Carrera is fungible. Guys that are way, way better than him were being released in the spring. I'm not sure how you can equate that to the FO saving an asset due to options. He never was one, nor does he have the potential to be one.

we have multiple reports now that shapiro wantdd to keep Sanchez and osuna in asset managementy type roles this year, while gibby insisted on putting them into primetime best players on the teamy type roles.

Would you mind sharing links to a couple of these reports? I can't find anything through Googling.

Is it insider stuff you can't share outside the Jays' front office?

Your comment about Happ makes little sense -- he was a FA pitcher who wanted to come to Toronto and probably could have made more money if he'd waited to sign.

The biggest issue with Jimy was poor management of resources. He platooned Fred McGriff and Cecil Fielder in order to allow Willie Upshaw to play everday. He benched Fielder to let Upshaw play everyday the year before. He also kept Fielder as a platoon player so Rance Mulliniks could DH most days. Right there is a 3 year pattern of benching a mega home run hitter most of the season so he could play clearly inferior players which was obvious at the time and more obvious years later even for casual observers. He even put Fielder in at 2B and 3B a few times for god knows what reason.

While I admire creativity in a manager there is a clear line between creative and idiotic. Playing Fielder at 3B and Gruber in CF clearly crosses that line. As does DHing Juan Beniquez and putting Fielder at 2B/3B flipping Fielder and Gruber non-stop that game. Fielder's line: 3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B. Deciding Sil Campusano was the opening day CF when he never played a game in the majors forcing your MVP LF to DH and All-Star CF to LF against both players wishes leading to a team revolt and eventually that kid flops and has a lifetime 63 OPS+ in under 300 PA.

His bullpen in '86 was Henke/Eichhorn and 3 other guys for mop up duty. For example, Dennis Lamp who was 11-0 the year before saw only 13 1+ average Leverage games, none after the All-Star break. Bill Caudill 12 times only one after August 9th. Meanwhile Eichhorn at 25 years old was used with 0 days rest 31 times and 1 day 31 times totalling 157 innings on the season. Imagine a manager abusing an arm like that now.

I'm sure I could go on and on but in the end this is the guy who took a team that would win a division title in '89 and went 12-24 with them. He was much worse than Gibbons who at least was able to see that Pillar earned the CF job despite pressure to keep the local kid in CF.

John Lott's twitter feed pointed me to this article in the Globe and Mail that I missed.  I didn't know that some major advertisers with Rogers had provisions in contracts which allowed them to switch from hockey broadcasts to baseball broadcasts. The Blue Jays' success unfortunately may be dwarfed by the failure of the hockey investment (to date), and these are more intertwined than I thought. 

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/04/05/sanchez-comes-up-aces-in-jays-loss

“He’s the one guy I’m most anxious to see,” said the Blue Jays manager, a little excited, a little nervous about seeing the talented Sanchez make his first start of the new season. Not that he doesn’t have a stake in every Jays pitcher, but Gibbons pushed hard to have Sanchez anointed to the rotation. And just in case, he has the backup of Gavin Floyd and Jesse Chavez, should his decision not work out."


http://m.thestar.com/#/article/sports/bluejays/2016/03/28/blue-jays-pitcher-aaron-sanchez-named-to-starting-rotation.html

"Gibbons wanted Sanchez to start all along. He believed it was now or never for the righty, who has split his short time in the majors between the rotation and the bullpen. But there were dissenting opinions in the front office. Sanchez is a proven commodity in the bullpen and he would have given the Jays a quartet of relievers arguably as good as any in the big leagues. There were also concerns about an increased injury risk as a starter.

“We all put our heads together and came up with this decision,” Gibbons said. “It wasn’t like this was totally mine, but it turned out the way I wanted it.”

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-manager-john-gibbons-doing-things-his-way

The two big roster decisions of the spring — who would be the final starting pitcher named and who would end up closing games — are done, as is the final roster, and both went Gibbons’ way.
Gibbons wanted Aaron Sanchez in the starting rotation and Sanchez pitched his way into that role. The decision to move Sanchez from the bullpen to a starting spot was something Gibbons favoured from the beginning. But not everyone did. In fact, there was some thought actually given to sending Sanchez to Buffalo and have him begin in Triple A as a starting pitcher. There were others who wanted Sanchez in the bullpen to have an uber-strong bullpen.

“We’ve already made decisions that clearly weren’t consensus decisions,” said Ross Atkins, the first-year GM. He wouldn’t specify which decisions, but the Sanchez decision was slightly contentious.

So was the determination that young Osuna would close games. Gibbons is a big believer in history and trust. He is nothing if not loyal. If you do well in a job, he doesn’t believe in tinkering with that success. He likes to be as comfortable with his players as they seem to be with him. But in the off-season, the Jays traded for veteran Drew Storen, former closer of the Washington Nationals.
There was some thinking, as late as Tuesday afternoon, that the Jays favoured Storen as a closer and Osuna would be pushed to setup man in the bullpen. But early Wednesday morning, Gibbons made the closer announcement without, any kind of ‘I told you so,’ in a typically understated Gibbons way.

"an "asset management" role, whatever that means?"

the simplest way to define it would be avoiding (fearing?) relying on them in crucial specific roles, despite their having the most upside in those roles.

jimy was a much mocked disaster in both toronto and boston. He really shouldn't be in the conversation imo.

"Your comment about Happ makes little sense -- he was a FA pitcher who wanted to come to Toronto and probably could have made more money if he'd waited to sign."

it was a throwaway dig, to be sure, but still, happ hasn't exactly earned anything yet.

What?

My understanding of what constitutes "prudent asset management" for a baseball GM concerns use of service time rules for young players to ensure that prime years are under club control, hoarding of depth talent through the option rules and so on.  Development paths of young players are also influenced by physical development and risk tolerance.  Many things have gone into Sanchez' arrival in the rotation this year: the acquisition of Storen at significant cost, the addition of 25 pounds at the behest of the Duke training team and his spring training performance. 

Gibbons is neither Jimy Williams nor Earl Weaver., neither Josh Donaldson nor Ezequiel Carrera.  He's just a guy, maybe something like Ryan Goins, who is doing his best to get better at some things and sometimes succeeding.  Can we please move on from efforts to make him out to be the worst or the best? 

Jimy was a much mocked disaster in both toronto and boston.

Boston was where they started called him "Dumy." We never thought of that in Toronto, but Canadians are notoriously polite, I suppose. But we shouldn't overlook his work in Houston, where he took over another first place team, one that had won 93 games the year before. In less than three years he was being booed by his hometown fans when he was introduced as a coach at the All-Star game. They fired him the next day, with the team at 44-44; Phil Garner took over and whaddya know. The Cito-Gaston-in-1989 effect was duplicated with remarkable precision. The Astros went 48-26 the rest of the way and made it back to the post-season.

If you didn't want to finish first, Jimy was your man.

I'm not trying to get into any fine distinctions here. Osuna and Sanchez are not only 2 of the highest upside plays in their roles, but backed up that upside by dominating spring training. Anyone with winning as the priority would use them as such.

Despite this, it sounds like the front office had other priorities in mind.

"the simplest way to define it would be avoiding (fearing?) relying on them in crucial specific roles, despite their having the most upside in those roles."


That's not what asset management is. If Shapiro prioritized managing an asset rather than putting the best talent on the field, then Osuna and Sanchez would have both been starting in the minors to 1) preserve service time, 2) take advantage of remaining options, 3) save money for down the road by adding an extra year of control, etc, etc. None of that was even a consideration. Osuna was going to be in the big league pen in some capacity, and the organization was 100% correct in building depth so that what ended up happening (Sanchez winning a spot) was done organically rather than by necessity. If he didn't win the #5 spot, then chances are he would have been in the bullpen, which again, would not have been "asset management". It would have been trying to maximize 2016 wins.

Sanchez has become a completely different pitcher now than he was in 2010-15 (at least from the looks of it). Him being penciled in to start in the pen prior to the season is not an indictment of the FO; they were perfectly justified in that opinion (if they felt that way). Sanchez turning the corner (if he can maintain this) was a scenario they probably did not expect, but rode with accordingly. In other words, they did exactly what you wanted them to, and yet you're still finding a way to place fault on them, for some reason.

I always thought that Jimy Williams was a comonsensical manager. Underated, even.

So, to be clear: the people who once asserted that Sanchez would likely never have what it takes to be a good starting pitcher (let alone a frontline one) are now faulting the front office for being too tentative about putting him in the rotation this spring?

yes, I will gladly admit my opinion of sanchez has changed over the last 2 years. The seeming improvement in command is a pleasant gamechanger.

"That's not what asset management is. If Shapiro prioritized managing an asset rather than putting the best talent on the field, then Osuna and Sanchez would have both been starting in the minors to 1) preserve service time, 2) take advantage of remaining options, 3) save money for down the road by adding an extra year of control, etc, etc. "

You're arguing extremes, I'm arguing priorities.

Hey, you guys can criticize gibbons all you want, but you're gonna have to give him credit where it's due.

"....I don't see how Pillar leading off is even remotely defensible....."

And yet you're unable to think of any alternative, except Saunders, who is actually a slugger who should be in the middle of the lineup (6th) to maximize his RBI opportunities.  You're also concluding that Pillar is the worst hitter in the lineup and refusing to concede even the possibility that he could improve this year. You're drawing a lot of conclusions from a very limited sample of a handful of games by a young player who has much potential to improve.  I don't see any grounds for the absolute confidence of your opinions on this one.

Tulo, Martin, or Saunders would be fine lead-off options. Or move each of Donaldson, Bautista, and Edwin up a spot so they get the most AB's. Or lead Pillar off against lefties and someone else against righties. Are you seriously implying that Pillar is the only option?

I also find the 'refusing to concede even the possibility that he could improve this year' line to be laughable since I said this in the same paragraph you were quoting: "Given that he doesn't draw walks and doesn't have much power, he's someone who will have to BABIP his way into a good season offensively, and while that's possible, it's not something I'd bank on." That seems to indicate a possibility to improve, does it not?

John Lott's twitter feed pointed me to this article in the Globe and Mail that I missed. I didn't know that some major advertisers with Rogers had provisions in contracts which allowed them to switch from hockey broadcasts to baseball broadcasts. The Blue Jays' success unfortunately may be dwarfed by the failure of the hockey investment (to date), and these are more intertwined than I thought.

I am impressed by just how poorly Rogers understands the Canadian sports consumer. That TV deal had failure written all over it from the start. Canada is not full of generic hockey fans (unless you're talking about national teams), it's full of fans of specific Canadian hockey teams. Flames fans aren't going to watch and cheer an Oilers playoff run, Habs fans are not going to watch and cheer a Leafs playoff run, and so on and so forth.

The complete saturation of hockey on their various channels is just a turn-off. There are only so many ways to espouse the future greatness of Connor McDavid or superlatives to describe Ovechkins scoring prowess in this era of hockey. It's just way overdone and people don't care THAT much.

What's worse is how this has deteriorated their other sports properties. The Raptors, for instance, often get punted to one of their more obscure channels (eg. SN1) that are not part of the most popular cable packages during hockey conflicts. TSN has become my go-to hoops channel and I find myself settling on that part of the dial more and more (when Jays games aren't on) to avoid having hockey shoved down every orifice.

And this coming from a guy who grew up playing and loving hockey! The Leafs have done their best to destroy that affection (though I'm a big fan of their direction the past couple of years), but I still consider myself a fan. Just not the massive fan of all things Hockey Canadiana that Rogers thought I might be.

"You're arguing extremes, I'm arguing priorities."


The alternative to Osuna being closer was him being the 7th or 8th inning guy. There is very little difference there from an asset standpoint. Saves might make Osuna a little more expensive during his arbitration years (if he remains a reliever) but he presents the most value to the team from an asset standpoint as a SP, and there was no chance of that happening in 2016. Ironically, the leads the Jays lost in 3 of their losses so far were in the 7th and 8th innings, while Osuna's innings this season have came with 3-4 run leads in the 9th. Maybe having Osuna earlier while Storen (declined velocity and all) pitching with padded leads would have helped.

The alternative to Sanchez in the big league rotation was him in the bullpen, as AAA wasn't brought up much with him. That's not maximizing his value as an asset, that's maximizing wins in 2016 (with the assumption that Floyd/Chavez were 1-2 win SP's and Sanchez was not). If they felt Sanchez has turned into a 1-2 win SP with potential for more in 2016, then you change course, which is exactly what they did.

I'm not sure what your criticism is. They were reasonable in expecting Sanchez to be behind Floyd/Chavez/Hutch on the depth chart, but he came into camp a changed pitcher, so they rolled with it. Their earlier plan had nothing to do with asset management, nor was it really risk averse; it had to do with trying to gain as many marginal wins in 2016 as possible.

"The alternative to Osuna being closer was him being the 7th or 8th inning guy. "

It's a fearful risk-averse mentality that instinctively prefers to keep a top young talent in a more protectable, flexible role rather than relying on him to be the man, even when he's the best man for the job.

Interesting article on mlb.com about the difference in how far in front of the pitching rubber a pitcher releases the ball affects a batter's time to react to the pitch. There is a big difference among pitchers in the distance the ball travels from hand to the batter. This impacts the effective velocity of their pitches. So the actual velocity is only part of the equation. You really need to know how big a stride and reach the pitcher has before releasing the pitch, to know what the pitcher's effective velocity really is. Another advantage for tall pitchers.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/171706062/syndergaard-fernandez-fastballs-harder-to-hit

Another advantage for tall pitchers.

And the Carter Capps hop.

Stephen Brooks - a good follow on Twitter - has left the Jays front office. The story also mentions the Jays have extended their Player Development Contract with Buffalo for two more years.

Brooks's replacement will be Andrew Miller, a Cleveland exec:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-dismiss-vp-business-operations-brooks/

#ClevelandNorth

greenfrog, the article you've posted is clear that Miller's new role is undetermined, so I would think it premature to report that he is "replacing" Brooks. 

Rumors surrounding a replacement for Brooks include Andrew Miller, the vice president of business-analytics for the Cleveland Indians.

That was from the #2's link.

Shi Davidi just said on the air that Miller would be Brooks's replacement.

I really don't know what to make of these Cleveland north type moves - on the one hand, it makes plenty of sense for shapiro to bring in the people he knows and trusts.  on the other hand, shouldn't an organization want to maintain some continuity and keep homegrown talent? 

does anyone have a sense of these guys coming in?  Atkins has been GM for a while and I have no real opinion on the guy, aside from a vague sense that he's just a Shapiro lackey (no idea if this is fair or not).  nor do I know what to make of this new hire Andrew Miller, or whether or not manager-in-waiting Eric Wedge is better than Gibby.  I don't have the strong sense that Cleveland is a great organization like some around here seem to have, but I'd love to be disabused of that notion. 

I'm not sure how any of us can reasonably evaluate the performance of a VP of Business Operations.

I don't know. Canadians aren't exactly known for their baseball acumen and a change here and there is usually not a bad thing per say. However, I don't know what an analytics guy from Cleveland would know about how to market the Jays in Canada.

"I really don't know what to make of these Cleveland north type moves - on the one hand, it makes plenty of sense for shapiro to bring in the people he knows and trusts. on the other hand, shouldn't an organization want to maintain some continuity and keep homegrown talent?"


Shapiro bringing in his own guys was inevitable. He likely does not know the majority of the staff he inherited, and over time (possibly by the end of the season) there will likely be a pretty sizable turnover. It may have happened a lot sooner if August-October 2015 never happened, but since it did, it lead to the holding pattern we've seen the past few months. I'd imagine we'll see more front office moves happening over the course of the next 6-12 months.

I think it's clear that Shapiro is letting the AA/Beeston/Gibbons core sink or swim in 2016. I see the organization looking a lot different, on the field and off, from 2017-onwards.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 12 2016 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#320845) # "The alternative to Osuna being closer was him being the 7th or 8th inning guy. " It's a fearful risk-averse mentality that instinctively prefers to keep a top young talent in a more protectable, flexible role rather than relying on him to be the man, even when he's the best man for the job.

There's a school of thought that says that optimal bullpen management uses the best pitcher earlier if it's a high leverage situation, saves be-damned.
I don't see that as risk-averse at all.

The guy complaining about "the culture of incompetence" and the "ritual clownshow bullpen escapade" is the same guy who spent the whole off-season writing praise of Rogers and Shapiro.

Assuming that this is directed at me, I don't recall spending any of the off-season, let alone the whole of it, "writing praise of Rogers and Shapiro". I do though recall ridiculing your daily mewling about how Poor Alex had been victimized by Rogers, and ridiculing your nonsensical claims that Autonomous Alex, now a junior executive in the warmer climate of SoCal, held greater 'autonomy' than he likely would have held as the GM in Toronto. If that struck you as "spending the whole off-season writing praise of Rogers and Shapiro" that is more a function of your own inability to reason than in it is of what i wrote. And even if I had spent the offseason writing daily advertising flyers for Rogers and Shapiro, that work would have been considerably more intelligent than your own Alex the Victim contribution.

"....Alex the Victim contribution...."

As I've explained to you in countless posts, I've never once portrayed AA as anyone's victim.  And I defy you to provide even a single example in which I used the "victim" word or anything similar.

Since you didn't bother reading what I wrote, I'll explain it again:  Anthopoulos wasn't the victim.  He is doing absolutely fine at a better-funded organization this year.  The victim was the Jays organization, which had to watch in horror as the brilliant owners shot themselves in the foot, alienating the team's fans by getting rid of its most popular and successful executive of the past two decades.