Additional news out of Florida suggests that Estrada will start the season on the DL. The Jays have an off day after the first four games in Tampa that would allow them to go with four starters and eight relievers. Estrada could come off the DL on April 10th.

Not surprisingly Sanchez will be on an innings limit, per all the Twitter talk, but it's interesting that they decided to start him in the rotation and move him to the pen late in the year rather than the opposite. They have an opportunity to piggy back SP's to some degree with two SP options now in the pen (Floyd/Chavez). It would probably make more sense to limit Sanchez's IP but keep in the rotation all season (skip starts, extended rest, maybe give Chavez some spot starts here and there, etc). If he ends up being one of the team's better starters like many here believe he will, then moving him to the pen would hurt the rotation down the stretch. I guess they could always improvise in the event that he has panned out.

Feel bad for Floyd. This was a chance for him to possibly prove he's back as a SP. Transitioning back to a SP after a pen stint might be more difficult for his arm. Then again, given where his velocity is as a SP this spring, and his injury history in general, this decision might prolong his career. I think his stuff can play in the pen. Just wish we got a chance to see if he had a little left in the tank as a starter.

My guess is Floyd stays in the pen all year, and Chavez becomes the main swing man. A lot of pressure on Sanchez now to prove he's legit.

I like the Sanchez decision because of how it played out. I think he had to clearly outperform the other options to win the job and that ultimately, he earned it. Gibby's take:

“The big thing I’ve seen is he’s able to control that arm a little bit more now, he’s in the strike zone more often, which is usually typical of the guys that throw that hard when they’re young. It takes them a little time to harness that a little bit,” Gibbons said of Sanchez’s progress in camp. “I thought his off-speed stuff was really good this spring. That’s really what I was focusing on. But he’s earned it. Now we’ll let him run with it and see what happens.”

I was a huge skeptic going into this but I'm a fan of a meritocracy and I'd have to think it's something the players in the clubhouse would prefer to see as well, especially in a case like this where all four competitors had significant question marks attached at the start.

As Gibby says, now we'll see.

I think it's the ideal solution.  It's much easier and less disruptive to have Sanchez transition from the rotation to the bullpen later in the season, rather than trying to stretch him out as a starter later.  I can see some unofficial "tandem starts" in the early games -- maybe 5 innings from Sanchez and then 2 innings from Floyd -- but there's a good chance that Sanchez can work deeper into the 7th and 8th innings, some of the time anyway.  By July or August, if he is getting close to his innings limit, the Jays can choose the best option to replace him:  Floyd or Hutchison or Chavez or even a trade-deadline acquisition.  And if Sanchez has a good season, he is perfectly positioned to be "Ace number 2" in the 2017 rotation.

Estrada likely opening on the DL means an extra roster spot for a reliever or a 5th outfielder.  Helps to keep the best assets in the organization, and anyway the Jays don't need a 5th starter in the first week.  Estrada could return on April 10.

For their opening series, the Jays will likely go:  Stroman-Dickey-Sanchez.  A power pitcher, a knuckleballer, and then the 99-mph fastballs of Sanchez.  Quite a contrasting look for the opposition to deal with.

Frankly, I was hoping for a piggyback with Sanchez/Floyd allowing them to both stay in the rotation and limit their innings and when the inevitable extra starter (injuries/poor performance) was needed both would be stretched out - probably too avant garde for MLB.

I prefer to have Ceciliani playing everyday at Buffalo and ready to step in when an injury occurs - Lake can play all 3 positions and has the speed required for pinch-running.

I hope the team can hold on to Biagini.

Too bad the Jays don't have room to claim Jesus Montero and then try to slip him through waivers - I still believe that bat will come around and the Jays have a history with hitters.

Estrada to the DL does increase our chances of sliding guys through waivers, but Biagini is in tough IMO - it's hard for a contender to commit those last few roster spots to one guy all year, especially a team that rides the Buffalo shuttle as much as this one does - that said, who knows if the new FO is like-minded about micro-managing the roster.

The guy I feel sorry for is not Floyd, who really upped his value this spring - it's Hutch, who frankly is an MLB starter right now, and could easily be better than Happ, Estrada or Dickey this year if given a shot.  We all know how wacky his stats were last year, he still has legit upside and from the meritocracy POV, he certainly had a strong spring.  The downside of all the starting depth we acquired this offseason is young, major-league ready talent in AAA - but who knows, perhaps the idea that he can work on his pitches and mechanics out of the spotlight has value.  I've never really understood how that idea works TBH - take him away from the best coaches, facilities and opposition and he'll improve faster? 

This season will certainly be fascinating from a philosophical POV!

For what it's worth, Fangraphs has our rotation as the 25th best in the game, but August Fagerstrom agrees that it's a wonky rank:  "Toronto’s 19-point positive gap between their ERA and FIP is the largest projected split in baseball. Dickey and Estrada both just get hammered by FIP, but peripherals aren’t their game, and the upside of Sanchez and Happ make this rotation compelling, one that, in my eyes, will earn a much higher spot on this list as the season goes on."

I only feel sorry for the rest of the AL East.

Poor guys.

Given that teams typically need about eight SPs over the course of a season, the Jays look to be in good shape with a depth chart that looks something like:

Stroman
Estrada
Dickey
Happ
Sanchez
Floyd
Chavez
Hutchison
Jenkins?

This should give the Jays much better options than in the past when they had to rely on pitchers like Nolin, Redmond, Ortiz and Laffey to step in when their primary SPs got injured.

Roberto Hernandez will probably elect free agency as he has been told he will not make the team.

Now I also feel bad for Roberto Hernandez.

It's gonna be a tough day

I am glad to see Sanchez given another shot at the rotation. When you see opposition scouts being wowed by Sanchez's stuff, then you know he belongs where he can contribute most. I do also feel for Hutchison as he has pitched well enough to stay in the majors. If the starters can pitch adequately, the Jays should be in great shape. I'm nervous about the depth at catcher, though. It seems paper-thin behind Martin, and Tony Sanchez's 9th inning implosion against the Yankees coupled with Jimenez beaning Hutchison while trying to throw to second base on the steal hasn't allayed my fears any.

really interested to see how hutch does this year. it seems like he has, or has tried to, make a big change in his approach to exclusively pound down in the zone. This seemed to make him harder to hit this spring but that came at the expense of far too many walks. We'll see if this is a) a real change and b) a good change.

nice to see Sanchez get the nod - if he falters it's much easier to move him out and floyd in than vice versa, imo. and if his command improvement is legit than he may be a fairly huge upgrade to the rotation.

And he may not be worth keeping but I'm still hoping hard that Jimeez skates through waivers.

Will be interesting to see what happens to the innings limit if Sanchez emerges as a dominant starter as I think he has a chance to be especially if most of the rotation is mediocre.

On a side note:  I was amused to see that Stroman basically announced the Sanchez decision to the world on his Twitter feed, a couple minutes before Gibbons had even told the media.  Lots of ways for us to get our baseball information these days, and Stroman's Twitter is one of them....

If Sanchez has a good season, some of the credit must go to Stroman for taking him under his wing, inspiring him and helping him with his training program by working together with him for seven weeks at Duke University in the off-season.  Quite a story.

I still think they can skate under the innings limit by smartly skipping a start every 4-5 weeks.

love it!  Go Sanchez!

I'm with you Uglyone, it is manageable with a skipped start every 4-5 weeks. Also important to note that Sanchez has matured physically with tremendous muscle gains on his frame. I saw him last week & he looks substantially stronger as a man & on the mound repeating his delivery. Not a big leap to assume his pitching stamina has increased along with his muscle mass.

useless spring stats update cuz I'm an addict:

CF Pillar 49ab, 2bb/1k, 1/2sb, .601ops
3B Donaldson 33ab, 5bb/6k, 0/0sb, .855ops
RF Bautista 23ab, 3bb/5k, 0/0sb, .800ops
DH En'cion ---
SS Tulowitzki 35ab, 4bb/9k, 0/0sb, 1.032ops
1B Colabello 44ab, 2bb/9k, 0/0sb, .781ops
LF Saunders 39ab, 4bb/12k, 0/0sb, .962ops
C Martin 31ab, 1bb/8k, 0/0sb, .478ops
2B Goins 36ab, 4bb/10k, 2/2sb, .887ops

UT Smoak 38ab, 7bb/9k, 0/0sb, 1.256ops
OF Carrera 26ab, 4bb/6k, 1/1sb, .604ops
IF Barney 36ab, 4bb/7k, 0/0sb, .606ops
C Thole 21ab, 0bb/5k, 0/0sb, .608ops

-----

OF Ceciliani 35ab, 5bb/7k, 0/1sb, 1.231ops
OF Pompey 22ab, 2bb/7k, 0/0sb, .928ops
OF Lake 39ab, 4bb/10k, 4/4sb, .726ops
OF Brown 35ab, 5bb/4k, 0/1sb, .614ops

IF Travis ---
IF Adams 29ab, 4bb/7k, 0/0sb, 1.075ops
IF Mier 35ab, 1bb/7k, 1/3sb, .904ops
IF Casilla 2ab, 0bb/0k, 1/1sb, 2.000ops

C Jimenez 18ab, 3bb/2k, 0/0sb, 1.032ops
C Sanchez 18ab, 1bb/4k, 0/0sb, .921ops


-----

SP Stroman 9.2ip, 0bb/9k, 0.72wh, 2.79era
SP Happ 10.2ip, 1bb/5k, 1.13wh, 3.38era
SP Dickey 14.1ip, 2bb/7k, 1.26wh, 5.02era
SP Estrada 5.2ip, 5bb/7k, 1.59wh, 4.76era
SP Sanchez 20.0ip, 3bb/19k, 0.90wh, 1.35era

RP Storen 6.0ip, 2bb/2k, 0.83wh, 1.50era
RP Osuna 6.0ip, 2bb/5k, 1.17wh, 3.00era
RP Cecil 3.2ip, 0bb/5k, 2.18wh, 9.82era
RP Floyd 12.1ip, 3bb/11k, 0.97wh, 2.19era
RP Chavez 11.1ip, 5bb/6k, 1.24wh, 3.97era

----

RP Loup ---
RP Tepera 6.1ip, 1bb/5k, 0.79wh, 1.42era
RP Delabar 7.2ip, 3bb/8k, 1.04wh, 2.38era
RP Biagini 8.0ip, 3bb/7k, 1.00wh, 3.38era
RP Leon 7.0ip, 2bb/3k, 0.57wh, 0.00era
RP Venditte 8.1ip, 2bb/3k, 0.60wh, 0.00era
RP Hernandez 10.0ip, 2bb/7k, 1.20wh, 3.60era

I see Sanchez being in a very low pressure situation - at least from the team's point of view - what inner demons he'll have to quell is up to him and his nerves.

I can't remember (perhaps single malt may be influencing that reduced memory) the Jay's starting the season with EIGHT actual real starters! At this moment in time I have a lot of confidence in: Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada, Dickey and Floyd. I've ALMOST regained my confidence in Hutchison and have at least some confidence in Happ and Chavez. So SIX starters that I'm confident(ish) with!

A pen of: Storen, Osuna, Cecil, Floyd, Chavez, and two of a cast of thousands looks very solid indeed. It'll be necessary too because both Boston and NY have improved their pens.

Let the games begin!

You'd have to skip about 8 starts to get Sanchez down to 150 innings. That's one of every four. Not sure if that's ideal.

Guys miss a few starts on the DL all the time.  Add to that the fact we have legit long relievers for the first time I can recall this millenium, you can manage Sanchez's innings pretty simply - skip a few starts here and there and pull him early - twice through the order on nights he's not dominating?  pull him in the 5th against a tough lefty?  An aggressively managed bullpen should be able to keep the kid a viable starter into the post season. 

Frankly, if the pen is looking good, I'd like to see a few starters getting the early hook in order to maximize their potential - Dickey and Happ are the obvious choices along with Sanchez.  With this offense, there should definitely be a few blowouts that can be handed off to the pen.

Right call. Congrats to Sanchez. He's so confident right now that knocking him off the horse would be insanity. I'm also eager to see what Floyd can do as a reliever.

I agree with the call too. Spring training does help sort out these things.

A 150 inning limit is probably a little conservative for my tastes.

Totally agreed.

Let's all start to slowly educate ourselves, so we're ready for the big August uproar over the innings limit. Here's one from a few years ago on Stephen Strasburg, by Rany Jazayerli.

I definitely think quicker hooks for starters who look off should be a priority now. If Dickey's knuckler looks bad in the 3rd inning, or Happ doesn't have his command, or whatever example you want to use, then don't waste any time. Bring in Floyd or Chavez to get through the 5th. That's a luxury that Gibbons would be foolish not to take advantage of. With this offense, keeping the deficit low early gives the team a chance to come back most nights.

I think the pen usage should be pretty structured. Osuna-Storen-Cecil in some order get the final 3 innings with a lead or close game. After that, Floyd/Chavez pitch in long relief and/or bride to the 7th. Biagini (if he makes it) can get the mop up role. Loup is the match-ups guy. And so on.

I expect Chavez to start anywhere from 10-20 games by the end of the season (injuries, spot starts, possibly replacing Sanchez late in the year, etc). Hutchison is the real wild card, though. Having him in AAA, while a bit unfair to him, is a real luxury. His development is just as important as Sanchez's, IMO, as a prolonged stint in the minors would extend his service clock and gain an additional year of control. Stroman/Sanchez/Hutch are all important pieces for the rotation going forward.

".... if the pen is looking good, I'd like to see a few starters getting the early hook...."

Dare I mention the much-derided notion of an 8-man bullpen?  Well, I do dare, at least for the first week of the season, since the logical formation for the first week is a 4-man rotation and an 8-man bullpen (assuming Estrada is on the DL until April 10). Then we'll see if the starters are going deep into games.  If they're pitching into the 7th and 8th innings, then the Jays can revert to a 7-man pen.  But if some of the starters are tending to fade quickly after the 5th inning, it might be worth sticking to an 8-man pen for two or three weeks at least.  It looks like the Jays would have the depth for an 8-man pen, with candidates such as Biagini, Leon, Delabar, and Venditte or Choate.

Given that Storen, Osuna & Cecil can't pitch everyday from the pen, Floyd is extremely valuable out of the pen. Small sample size in Cleveland noted, but he was very effective last year & has had a good Spring. I anticipate very effective performances from Floyd in relief. Time is now for Sanchez to be a starter.

Wow.  The Jays have claimed Jesus Montero on waivers from Seattle.  Can they fix him??  To make room, they have DFA'd  AJ Jimenez. But Montero should give them more catcher depth, which is badly needed.

The Jays have claimed Jesus Montero, per Twitter.

And to answer the obvious point, yeah, I know Montero hasn't caught in the majors since 2013 and might not have much of a future there.  Still....  it's intriguing.  He was the uber-prospect at one point in the past.

Bob Stanley is the pitching coach in Buffalo. I believe he is the Boston pitcher that did a lot. Many games, IP etc...

He should have a good influence on Hutch.

Montero is not a catcher anymore, and I think calling him anything other than a DH would be a reach at this point. Still, former top prospect, still only 26, and spent the past few years in an organization where hitting prospects typically rot/fail/underachieve. Worth a shot.

Montero's slash line last season in AAA was .355/.398/.569.   Of course it was the PCL.  But it still seems that he could have the potential to convert his minor-league magic into a major-league career.  As someone has already tweeted:  paging Dr. Tewksbary....

There are probably some stats that can be tortured enough to show a comp between Jose Bautista and Jesus Montero.

he's pretty much travis snider, but with less defensive value.

the only hope here is that bautista and ee can work their magic.

"You'd have to skip about 8 starts to get Sanchez down to 150 innings. That's one of every four. Not sure if that's ideal.
[ R"

150 seems a bit low for a guy who's gone 110-130-110 last 3yrs imo. Skipping 3-5 starts should keep him in the 160 range I think.

I wonder if the Jays think they have a better chance to sneak Jimenez through waivers now, rather than at the official end of spring training?  Anyway it's a further example of the lack of catching depth in the Jays system.  If there's been any disappointment in the "depth-building" exercise that Shapiro launched over the past few months, it has to be at the C position.  Tony Sanchez has looked pretty awful defensively, and now Jimenez could be gone.  Who's left?  Josh Thole and Robinson Diaz?

now we know why they weren't in a rush to resign EE! 

Kidding, but I don't really get the move since we had to DFA Jiminez to get him - I assume Jiminez is more likely to get picked up now before rosters consolidate?  I like grabbing former top prospects like Brown and Montero as projects, and we've had success with reclaiming bats, but Jiminez has more value to us than Montero IMO.  I just don't see AJ making it to Buffalo. 

Don't really understand it. I get the Jimenez part, just not the Jesus part.

Catching depth is an issue even if Jimenez clears waivers. I'm not sure there is an answer for it, at least right now. It's a huge issue. Just have to keep Martin healthy, otherwise they will be scrambling.

As far as Montero, they likely claimed him to send him to Buffalo, and considering he's a DH whose bat has not been good at all at the big league level, I think it's a safe bet that he'll clear. Projections have him as a league average hitter (~100 wRC+) who can't field or run. Sounds about right. This is one hell of a project to try to fix, as he has no defensive upside at all, but there's no harm in trying, I guess.

only thing I can find good about Montero is his career 117wrc+ vLHP.

I really, really wanted Montero straight up instead of the package we got for Halladay.

ah well, them's the risks.

There are probably some stats that can be tortured enough to show a comp between Jose Bautista and Jesus Montero.

Probably easier to compare Montero to an inanimate carbon rod. Less torturous, for sure.

They can't just send Montero to Buffalo, he is out of options.

Maybe they think they can sneak him through.

I saw someone muse that maybe, just maybe EE is NOT going to be ready for opening day and Montero is the temp fill-in.

It seems odd to me... all around.

I get the Jimenez part, just not the Jesus part.

Blame it on Easter. Is Montero the messiah? No, he's a very naughty boy.

I like the Montero gamble - Seattle has been notorious for their failure to develop well regarded hitting prospects & the Jays have had some luck - I still believe in that bat and with the Jays likely to lose Bautista & EE next year, it's well worth the gamble - hopefully the jays will be able to slip Montero through waivers.

"I saw someone muse that maybe, just maybe EE is NOT going to be ready for opening day and Montero is the temp fill-in."

HR, BB, and no pain for EE in the minor league game this aft.

"....I saw someone muse that maybe, just maybe EE is NOT going to be ready for opening day and Montero is the temp fill-in....."

I think Edwin will probably be ready for opening day.  But if he is not, I hope they give the temporary roster spot to someone like Ceciliani or Burns, who have definitely earned it with an excellent spring, rather than Montero, who has had a terrible spring and has hit poorly in the majors for years.  I think Montero needs to be fixed, whether it's by Tewksbary or Jacoby or someone in Buffalo.  He is likely to pass unclaimed through waivers, since the Jays were one of the last teams to have a shot at him in the reverse order of waiver claims, which means that almost every other team didn't want him.  It seems that Montero is a powerhouse hitter in the minors but can't make the adjustment to the majors.  That might be fixable.

Sanchez deserves the chance. And Floyd will be around to step in when Sanchez reaches his innings limit. It's all good.

Jiminez hasn't hit above AA. He's a good defender, but the Jays should be able to find another defense-first catcher to replace him - there are a bunch of those guys out there.

And he may not be worth keeping but I'm still hoping hard that Jimeez skates through waivers.

I wonder how Hutch feels about that throw that almost decapitated him.

If anything, being a dominant starter makes the inning limit more important. Pitchers go on the DL routinely and promising guys blow their arms out all the time.

Montero can't catch. I'm not even sure he can play first base.
It's crazy when you think about what Seattle traded for him.

I expect Sanchez will see a very short leash early on, 5-6 innings and done will be the normal unless he has a very low pitch count (60's or low 70's). Which will work OK I suspect. Also will encourage him to do maximum effort on his pitches early on as he knows he won't be going for 9 often which should lead to better results. It'll be interesting to see what Gibbons does as the year rolls on.

Jimenez would have had to clear waivers anyway.

If I understand how this works correctly, all the AL teams that won less games than the Jays were not interested in Montero and I don't think a NL team would have been interested. So that leaves the Royals.

They needed a spot on the 40 roster to claim him, but I don't believe they have to keep him there.
They can outright him to Buffalo if he clear waivers again, that would be his only outright, and he would still have to be paid his MLB salary while there. It's probably a done deal.

Montero for nothing? Can't complain. He was a top 10 for all of MLB prospect for 3 years - 2010-11-12. His lifetime AAA numbers are 302/360/506 in 1888 PA. Yeah, many were PCL but still nice. He is now purely at first base/DH but if his bat can get back to where it was, over an 800 OPS in the international League at 20/21 then he could be a wow.

Perfect guy for the Jays to grab, someone who was once a top hitter but was screwed up with a club who is known for screwing up hitters. Ideally stash him in AAA for April/May and see if good coaching can bring him back. If by June he isn't showing hope then might as well let him go. If EE is hurt to start can give him a shot in the majors to start but Colabello hits right as well and Colabello should have first shot at DH PA's if EE is out. Maybe he can platoon at 1B mixed with Smoak while Colabello is at DH for April if needed.

Roberto Hernandez will probably opt out, but he's unlikely to make it anywhere else. His best option is to stay in AAA, until needed - by anyone. I never understand opting out at his age. If no other team wants him, then stay with the Jays or retire.

Not having Aaron Sanchez in the Bullpen should change the makeup of the Bullpen, needing the best available options. Instead I expect Randy Choate as lefty specialist, while everyone else has options. I expect Joe Biagini to make the team, too much talent and upside to send back. I just don't know enough to know who's better.

I fully expect either Junior Lake or Ezequiel Carrera to make the Roster after hearing Gibbons talking about preserving assets. He likes Ceciliani best, but it's unlikely he's on the Roster. Whoever isn't on the Roster should clear waivers. I can't see them being in much demand.

Marco Esrada will not be needed until April 16th at the latest. As hard as he's trying, he's still several weeks behind. I think it's too early to stress the Bullpen too often.

Edwin Encarnacion is such a streaky hitter that not having your timing down pat can be counterproductive. Every time a Hitter had a late start to their Spring it usually resulted in a poor April - every time. This is the one year the Jays need to start very strong. Losing months are no longer acceptable.

D.L.-ing people in preseason is not such a bad thing if it lets them get their game up to par. It's only bad if it's something else.

Dan Straily was traded by Houston for Erik Kratz. I know there was talk of Houston being interested in Jimenez last week. Not sure how the Astros would have viewed Jimenez in comparison to Kratz, but getting someone like Straily for AJJ would have been amazing. Kratz was rated pretty highly for his framing in the past, while Jimenez has been oft-injured and hasn't hit in the minors so he's probably not much of a trade asset. Then again Kratz is 35 and Jimenez is 25/26.

I think there might be a chance AJJ clears. It really depends on which teams need back-up catchers. Taking Houston out of the equation eliminates one destination, but there could be more teams out there. Certainly a team like the Royals who refuse to rest Salvador Perez could probably hide Jimenez on their roster if they wanted to.

Steve Delabar released by the Jays today.  He didn't impress very much in the pre-season games, but it's a little sad to see our former All-Star departing.  Looks like Leon and Biagini might get the final bullpen spots, if Estrada is placed on the DL, but we should learn the final decisions within hours.

Should have clarified:  if Estrada is placed on the DL, the final bullpen spots could go to Leon, Biagini and either Choate or Venditte.  But that's just my speculation, based on the fact that Tepera still has options, Hernandez didn't make the grade, and I can't think of anyone else who would have a serious chance at the final spot.

Incidentally, the Jays could have easily made room for Montero on the 40-man roster yesterday by releasing Delabar instead of designating Jimenez for assignment.   Possible explanation?  The Jays might be inviting trade offers for Jimenez, allowing time for other teams to consider him as a back-up catcher option in the final days before opening day.

Delabar being tendered a contract in the first place was puzzling. He's exactly the type of reliever who gets a spring training invite every year to see if he can regain his previous form, not someone you invest a guaranteed $850k in. Regardless, good luck to him.

If Estrada and Loup are both starting on the DL, and the Jays are going with a 4-man rotation until the 10th, then they can probably bring up Biagini, Leon, and one of the lefties (Venditte) for at least a week or so. Once Estrada gets back they'll have to option Leon (out of options but he should clear in April), and Venditte when Loup gets back. They'll have to keep Biagini all season, but I think that's doable. It really depends on how high they are on him and whether it's worth it in their eyes to keep him all season in a year they want to compete.

"....not someone you invest a guaranteed $850k in...."

Apparently the money was not guaranteed.  The Jays will save about $750,000 by releasing Delabar, according to tweets that I've seen today.

And, for what it's worth, Wilner is saying that Choate isn't likely to win a spot, since the Jays don't really want a one-batter LOOGY.  So, unless the Jays really like Tepera and are willing to lose an asset to keep him, I would suspect that Tepera will be optioned and the final bullpen spots will go to Leon, Biagini and Venditte.

Next up:  who's the 4th outfielder?

Choate released, but is considering an offer from the Jays to pitch for Buffalo.   And it's virtually confirmed that Biagini has made the team.  So the final spots will presumably go to Biagini, Leon and Venditte.

Choate was released (common sense prevailed!) but they would like him to pitch for Buffalo.

Sounds like Biagini has made the team based on comments made by Gibbons but nothing official yet. Good move. I remember Atkins sounding thrilled when they got him in the Rule 5 so they must have liked him a lot.

On the Jays website they list 17 pitchers in the 'active roster' portion. Delabar has (obviously) been cut now so it is 16. 3-4 more cuts coming.
RHP: Biagini, Leon, Schultz, Tepera
LHP: Loup (DL), Choate (not listed as roster)
Both: Venditte

So Loup is a clear cut there leaving 2-3 more to go. Biagini has an advantage in being a rule 5 pick he has to stick or will be lost. Venditte is my favorite to keep as I love the switch pitcher flexibility. That leaves Leon/Schultz/Tepera as 'sucks to be you' cuts along with Choate.

Bo Schultz hasn't pitched a single inning this spring -- he is still recovering from a "clean-up" surgery to his hip in the off-season.  So he'll presumably open the season on the DL and will then progress to a minor-league rehab stint.

Ryan Tepera will almost certainly be optioned to Buffalo, but could be the first to be promoted in case of injury.

Leon will almost certainly win a bullpen spot, because the Jays have now confirmed that Estrada needs another Florida start and will begin the season on a back-dated DL assignment.  He'll return to the rotation on April 10.

So it will be an 8-man bullpen to begin the season.  Room for everyone, including Venditte.  The only slightly tough decisions, probably, were Delabar and Hernandez and Choate, since they couldn't be optioned.

It's been a great spring. You'd think that Ceciliani has earned the 4th OF spot; the only remaining concern with the club is the lack of depth behind the plate. 

Agreed Mike, it has been a great spring - lots of wins, mostly good health for the key guys, and some of the AAA depth looking strong with guys like Burns, Adams and Mier all showing something.

I agree on Ceciliani as the 4th OF but I could still see the case for Lake, and I'm pretty happy about the way the bullpen played out. No Choate! Although he's fine as a AAA arm if he accepts. Delabar likely had very little chance - he pitched well but still didn't make the team.

The story of the spring has to be Sanchez though - the 'best shape of my life' storyline actually had weight this time!

did they cut Hernandez? I was just noticing that he's been a very good RP in a small sample over the last couple years, and has been good this spring.

i understand protecting assets but with all of pompey ceciliani carrera lake brown behind a very good starting OF i don't think we have to care too much about losing one.

There's been no official word on Hernandez, but it was widely reported that he's been told that he won't make the team and that he is therefore exploring the possibilities with other teams.  I believe he had a deal that allowed him to go elsewhere if he didn't make the major-league team.

And there's now speculation that Tepera could make the team, rather than Venditte.  I gather that Tepera has reverse splits, though I haven't checked yet.  And Venditte has options, so he can be sent to Buffalo without risk of losing him.  I'm a little surprised that Tepera is seen as a better lefty-killer than Venditte or Choate, but there you are.

yeah Tepera's reverse splits make him a good candidate. I like Biagini's upside but I don’t think much of Leon.

myself I can't buy into the Venditte gimmick. I don't think he's any good. and I'm glad choate isn't making it. Girodo I still think might be our best lefty depth.

But I was actually warming myself up to Hernandez in the pen last night. I have all sorts of confidence in ex-SP in the bullpen - especially guys who have already shown well in their initial small stints in the pen like hernandez has.

Tepera's reverse splits are a myth. In 2013, his splits were about equal against both, but in 2011-12 and 2014, he was significantly worse against LHB. In 2015 at the big league level, he had a 6.20 FIP and .103 BABIP against LHB, so I think it's fair to say he wasn't doing practically well.

Leon would make more sense. He doesn't have options, and they can probably sneak him down on April 10th when Estrada comes back. If they want someone specifically to get lefties out, then outside of Girado (who isn't an option), it would have to be Venditte.

just sorting out the pen in my head....

1.Storen
2.Osuna
3.Cecil

4.Floyd - replaces Sanchez as the highest lev reliever after the big three.
5.Loup - loogy
6.Chavez - primary longman

7.My favorite here would be Hernandez. He's a legit mlber and has very nice small samlple relief stats in recent years. But I also like Biagini's upsde, so he'd be fine. I don't think much of Leon, or schultz or Delabar.

8.Loup Replacement: I'm not a Venditte believer. I think he's bad. I'm also glad choate is gone. I'd go with reverse splits Tepera or Girodo.

i understand protecting assets but with all of pompey ceciliani carrera lake brown behind a very good starting OF

This time of year means it's time for teeth gnashing over the end of the bench. Which replacement level players do we prefer over which other replacement level players? And how do we hide our replacement level players so that no other team can get them (even if, by definition, there are a jillion free variations of these guys to be had for nothing)?

Yes, once in a while a replacement level player proves he's not, so you may as well choose wisely. Usually, though, it doesn't really matter. These choices feel more subjective than objective. I like the cut of this guy's jib, so I'm pulling for him even if the other guy could do the same job.

Uglyone, you've only listed 7 bullpen spots (since Loup is on the DL), but the Jays will begin the season with a 4-man rotation and an 8-man pen, since Estrada seems very likely to be on the DL.  So you can choose one more pitcher for your hypothetical bullpen.  I think the Jays will definitely have a 2nd pitcher for LHB situations -- either Tepera or Venditte (until Loup returns) -- since Gibbons has repeatedly said that he likes to have 2 lefty specialists in his pen.  Then you can choose one more, so there's room for both Biagini and Leon.  I'm not sure why, but the Jays do seem to prefer Leon over Hernandez.  Of course, money could be a factor too.  I think Hernandez was guaranteed $1.25-million if he made the team.  A bit much, perhaps.  Would you want the 8th man in the bullpen to be better-paid than Gavin Floyd?  Maybe not a big deal, but could be a factor, especially with cost-conscious Rogers.

On the question of bullpen roles:  the Jays should use Floyd for multiple innings.  Chavez is better in shorter stints.  Floyd is stretched out.  If they want to keep him as an option for the rotation in July or August, they should give him 2-inning and 3-inning stints when possible.  But not necessarily in a mop-up role.  I could see him coming into a close game in the 5th or 6th inning and pitching for 2 or 3 innings, maybe once or twice a week.

chuck if you're talking about ceciliani's jib then I agree. And I wouldn't fret about losing a carrera or lake or brown on waivers.

pretty sure I listed 8, china :)

also the fact that floyd was hitting 94/95 this spring, which could play up even more in the pen, tells me he's got a good shot at high lev late inning work.

Uglyone, you listed eight relievers, but one of them is Loup.   He won't be on the opening-day roster.

chuck if you're talking about ceciliani's jib then I agree. And I wouldn't fret about losing a carrera or lake or brown on waivers.

Yeah, I do like his jib because I have a preference for reserve outfielders who are speedy and defense-minded. But odds are he won't deliver a whole lot more than the other guys, whose jibs are subjectively less appealing.

It is a fine, fine jib cecliani has, that's for certain.

and yep china you are right. my bad.

I think that a couple of these decisions are somewhat more important than usual, given the makeup of the club.  As it stands, the pitching staff lists heavily right-handed.  As last year's playoff series against the Royals illustrated, it is helpful to have a pitcher who can get out a string of left-handed hitters.  I don't think that Tepera is the guy.  The 4th OF slot also might have somewhat more importance than usual in light of Bautista's age and shoulder troubles and Saunders' injury history.

Ceciliani did hit more home runs last year (the Las Vegas park favours doubles and triples more than home runs) and has been on a spree in spring training.  He is of an age that power could be developing some, and batting left on a right-handed tilted lineup, he might get some opportunities to show off any new power that is there.  He would be my choice. 

"....it is helpful to have a pitcher who can get out a string of left-handed hitters....."

Especially for the first series of the season.  In the Rays lineup, the LHBs include:  Kiermaier, Dickerson, Morrison, Loney, Miller.

On another subject:  Wilner has tweeted that Bo Schultz will be throwing his first live batting practice on Friday.  So he's a few weeks behind, but he could return to the Jays as a useful asset later in the season.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Tepera have no splits going forward. He was throwing a pretty hard cutter to both sides of the plate last year, which I doubt he was doing as a starter (?) Maybe it just caught the hitters by surprise. Anyway, a world without a LOOGY is a world I'm perfectly comfortable in...

Ceciliani's milb track record is nothing to scoff at either.

He's ranged from average (AA: 98wrc+, A: 102wrc+, Rk: 94wrc+) to awesome (AAA: 157wrc+, A+: 147wrc+, A-: 164wrc+), albeit always a year or two old for the level.

With good speed and D there's no reason he can't be a quality 4th OF.

"....Which replacement level players do we prefer over which other replacement level players?..."

It's true that it usually doesn't matter too much.  But when you see the unexpected emergence of under-rated fringe players like Goins and Colabello last year, or Hendriks in the bullpen, it keeps you interested.  Some of these fringe guys can end up with key roles on a winning team, and I enjoy the debate over which ones should be given a chance every year.

Even replacement-level Carrera ended up with 200 plate appearances last year.

and I enjoy the debate over which ones should be given a chance every year.

I'd never presume to tell anyone to not bother debating the matter. How people invest their time and energy is their business. And I did concede that some seemingly replacement level players surprise, so thoughtful consideration is warranted. I'm just saying that the odds that any of these decisions matter are not terribly high.

But fans are invested in their teams, so debates over players 24 and 25 are inevitable. Have at it! These guys probably wished their families talked about them as much as we do.

I don't have a fantasy baseball team, so if I'm going to pretend to be a GM and debate personnel moves for the 25th spot on the roster, here is the only place where I can do it....

Even replacement-level Carrera ended up with 200 plate appearances last year.

Right, and this goes to my argument about subjectivity. He was the consummate replacement level player (0.2 per FG, -0.7 per BR). He gave us Carrera-ish replacement level play, which I did not find subjectively appealing. I imagine Ceciliani would give about the same in Carrera's shoes, and I'd find it subjectively more enjoyable.

Were the Jays looking for a backup replacement level infielder, I'd much prefer Kawasaki to, say, Pennington. They are probably the same player. We could argue about upsides and roles and other stuff, but both would likely give close to nothing, so I'd much prefer the one who makes me laugh.

Well, Kawasaki just got cut by the Cubs, so he's available....

one of the few worrying performances this spring, imo, is colabello. given his track record, the fact he's not hitting is a big worry.

in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if he's lost the starting 1b job already to smoak, who's gaving a great spring, even though gibby was imo clearly leaning towards cola starting.

at the very least, cola's leash has been shortened already imo.

The 4th OF will get a lot of PA's. Look at the list of players who got time in the OF the last two years outside of the three projected starters at the beginning of the year. It's a pretty extensive list. If Ceciliani is the best player, and my guess is of the three (him/Lake/Carrera) he probably projects to have the best career from a skill set standpoint, then go with him. If you think Lake has untapped upside, then go with him, but he's the riskier talent (as we debated previously). From a pure value standpoint, Ceciliani has the best glove, is a plus base runner, and his bat could be solid enough in a reserve role. If you have a skilled player that can play a back up role efficiently, then go for it. Jarrod Dyson in KC was putting up 3 WAR seasons as a 4th OF behind his amazing defense and base running. I don't expect Ceciliani to be half that good, but I think he's better than Carrera and Lake. The X-factor is Lake learning how to turn some of his tools into performance, so I could see the argument for him if they go that route, but I'd go with Ceciliani. Safer and I think better in the long run as well.

As far as Tepera, I think his ability to have reverse splits has become a "say it enough times and people will believe it" phenomenon. Nothing in his career suggests he can get LHB out, in general or better than RHB. The small big league sample was based off an unsustainable BABIP where the rest of his peripherals were awful (BB/9, FIP, xFIP, K/9, etc). He might end up being a decent RP someday, but he's not a reverse split specialist.

"one of the few worrying performances this spring, imo, is colabello. given his track record, the fact he's not hitting is a big worry."


I have absolutely unwarranted optimism with Justin Smoak, even dating back to last season. He has power and he draws walks, but can't seem to put everything together. I hope he gets a real chance this season. I don't think Colabello is going to end up being much of an asset long-term (unless the BABIP Overlords still love him). Both are probably the same level of player overall, but I have a small glimmer of hope in Smoak's upside.

"...one of the few worrying performances this spring, imo, is colabello..."

I agree that Smoak has looked much better than Colabello this spring.  But that doesn't mean that we should worry about Colabello too much.  Until his last game, his spring OPS was .781 which isn't too far below an acceptable rate.  More importantly, hitters are working on all sorts of things in the spring that we might not be aware of.  Lots of good hitters have poor springs.  (Have you looked at Russ Martin's spring statistics lately?)  Rather than judge Colabello by his spring numbers, I'd prefer to go back just a little further, to his October post-season numbers, in which he sported an .830 OPS against some very tough pitchers.  I don't think we need to be too worried about him.  And if his numbers decline, he's easily replaceable by Smoak.  We only need to worry if they both begin to decline significantly.

yeah, there is a glimmer of a chance that it's smoak, not montero or brown, that can pull off the Bautista/EE/Donaldson transformation.

I can't say I'm betting on it, though.

"Lots of good hitters have poor springs. (Have you looked at Russ Martin's spring statistics lately?) Rather than judge Colabello by his spring numbers"

which is why I specifically referred to Cola's track record.

If no one signs Kawasaki as a player, could the Jays sign him as a coach? He could be the Happiness Coach.

Or he could be hired by the front office as an ambassador or something.

There's no practical use for Muni, but he deserves a job somewhere in baseball, doing something, after his playing days are over.

If no one signs Kawasaki as a player, could the Jays sign him as a coach?

I'm willing to keep him in Budweiser if he wants to hang with me and watch games (I'd be opting for a more palatable beverage, myself).

Colabello's track record is pretty interesting.  He's been an excellent hitter in every league in which he has ever played.  His only poor numbers came during his brief rookie MLB season (only 181 plate appearances, barely a third of a season) and then in his injury-shortened season when he was attempting to hit through a chronic thumb injury which was a more serious injury than anyone realized.  Aside from those anomalous seasons, he has a good track record. 

Any idea when minor league rosters are announced?

Minor league rosters will be announced next Monday or Tuesday. The players will be informed on Friday or Saturday so some assignments might leak on twitter. Batters Box used to get the rosters as soon as the players knew but some of the teams complained that we were getting ahead of their press releases. Now we only get the rosters once the teams announce.

Heck, I'd sign Kawasaki to a AA or AAA deal with a promise of a September call-up as he seems to be popular with the other players and isn't a disaster as a backup 2B/SS, pinch runner, etc. That is assuming no one gives him a ML deal.

Apparently the Cubs resigned Kawasaki to a minor league deal.

This time of year means it's time for teeth gnashing over the end of the bench. Which replacement level players do we prefer over which other replacement level players?

An awesome piece by John Lott on this very subject:

https://sports.vice.com/ca/article/simon-pond-a-cautionary-tale-about-the-boys-of-spring

I have utterly erased the memory of one Buck Coats from my mind, and tried to do the same with Dana Eveland, but I do recall pulling for Pond and Randy Ruiz.

I wish B-R would add spring training stats for more than the current year as it would be fun to look back at the, say, 1985 team and see who was 'hot' then and what happened to that player.

mlb.com has them back to 2006.

W.Lydon 1.025ops

"....Ceciliani did hit more home runs last year (the Las Vegas park favours doubles and triples more than home runs) and has been on a spree in spring training.  He is of an age that power could be developing some...."

All of this is true, and I think Ceciliani definitely has potential to improve.  He's still only 25, and has only had a half-season at the AAA level in his entire career.  So this is an argument for sending him to Buffalo, giving him lots of playing time and coaching, and seeing if he evolves into a potential major-league regular.  The Jays could be losing two of their outfielders in 2017, and Pompey replaces only one of them.  If all goes right, Ceciliani could perhaps develop into someone who could have a big role next season.  So why put him on the Toronto bench, where he could stagnate?  Send him to Buffalo and keep him busy and improving.  The 4th outfielder job should go to Lake or Carrera -- the players who don't have options and could otherwise be lost.

"....Minor league rosters will be announced next Monday or Tuesday...."

The Buffalo rotation seems to have a couple of gaps at the moment.  The only locks are Hutchison, Diamond and Copeland.  The problem is that Penny has retired and Hernandez is likely gone.  I guess Chad Jenkins could become a starter, as he transitions away from being "bullpen prospect" to the unfortunate category of "organization guy."  Jenkins did start 11 games for the Bisons last year, so he's not locked into the bullpen role any more.

So that's 4 likely starters in Buffalo, but they will need a 5th starter.  Who am I overlooking?  They might have to promote someone from New Hampshire, or -- more likely -- acquire a pitcher from the final cuts of spring training in other organizations.

Regarding the 4th OF: The 2015 Blue Jays had 4 solid months of mis-fits in the outfield. To be precise, that was Carrera-Valencia-Colabello-Goins in left field for May thru July, and Carrera and Colabello in right field for all of May. One really hopes that if this kind of extended need arises in 2016 it will be Pompey that gets the regular playing time, not the likes of Lake or Ceciliani (nice as his jib may be).

Roster announcements are in:

Final relievers: Leon, Tepera, Biagini

Fourth outfielder: Carrera

Closer: Osuna

Meh.

Gibbons has announced Carrera as the 4th outfielder, Osuna as the closer, and the final bullpen slots go to Leon, Biagini and Tepera.  

Let's hope Tepera can handle the tough LHBs, because Cecil can't do it all himself.

Osuna presumably won't be pitching multiple innings very often in 2016, unless he does the occasional 5-batter save.  So he'll probably be back in the bullpen next season.

I hope Junior Lake can sneak through waivers and get some time in Buffalo.  Both he and Ceciliani could be useful later in the season, or next season.  (But of course Pompey should be the first to be promoted if there's an outfield injury.)

I am not sure I agree with using Osuna as closer. I mean, he will be fine, but I would have thought Storen was better.

Hmmm... we'll see.

Yuck. Carrera making the team over Ceciliani (or even Lake) is very disappointing. He's going to end up getting a lot of plate appearances now, and doesn't even provide useful defense. Very poor decision, IMO.

Tepera and Leon are likely gone once Estrada and Loup get back (Biagini can't be demoted) so not too bothered there. Tepera at least might have some upside compared to Venditte, though I hope he's used sparingly regardless.

Osuna as the closer is strange because Storen has already mentioned that he prefers a strict one inning role, while Osuna (even if they don't plan on stretching him out in 2017) can probably get 4-5 outs some nights. From that standpoint, it would have made more sense to give Storen the 1 inning role in the 9th and given more flexibility to Cecil and Osuna to pitch more if need be. This might indicate that they'll go the Ned Yost route with 1 inning for each guy. Or maybe just rewarding Osuna for last season.

I think I see the logic here.

- Players who are out of options are preferred over players with options, unless there is a clear difference in ability.

- Incumbents are preferred over newcomers, unless there is an obvious difference between the two.

Hence Osuna over Storen: Storen might be a better closer, but Osuna hasn't yet done anything to deserve to lose the job.

Carrera benefits on both counts: he wins out over Lake because he was the incumbent, and he wins out over Ceciliani because he is out of options.

I'm not too worried about the decisions. They're all reversible: if Carrera or Osuna crashes and burns, Plan B is available.

"....doesn't even provide useful defense..."

I think that this criticism of Carrera is quite exaggerated.  I think his defence is adequate.  But I don't have data to cite, except what I've seen with my own eyes, which is obviously very subjective.  I saw him make a spectacularly good play in the outfield in a recent pre-season game, for example.  But I admit this is subjective.  Anyone else want to weigh in?  Given that the 4th outfielder is often a late-inning defensive replacement, I find it hard to believe that Gibbons would have given him the job if he is clearly a poor defender.

"...Tepera and Leon are likely gone once Estrada and Loup get back..."

The first decision will be on April 10, the likely date of Estrada's return.  Tepera can be optioned down, but perhaps not when Estrada comes back, because the Jays prefer to have two lefty-killing specialists in their bullpen.  Leon cannot be optioned.  So I'm not sure yet whether the Jays would risk losing him on waivers.  I think the Jays will study the evidence of the first week of the season and see whether they want to keep Leon or not.  It might be possible to sneak him through waivers.  Or they could lose him.  If he pitches well in the opening week (if he even gets into any games), the Jays might look for someone else to demote, so that they can be sure of keeping Leon.  Depends on how he does.

I guess the silver lining on carrera is that since he's not better at anything than any of the starters, then gibbons will play him as little as possible. Sure would have liked a guy with true CF defense and a bit more upside at the plate, though - and we have at least 2 of them in the minors now. Hard to see how he makes us a better team than the alternatives.

I don't know if the best reliever should be the "closer" but at least there's a solid argument that Osuna is just better than Storen, so I don't have much issue there, even if both have question marks.

And because I am weak and petty I guess I can't resist one more little dig a the "look at all of shapiro's great depth" crowd - I'm betting you weren't guessing that all of biagini/leon/tepera would be on the opening day roster, eh?

"I think that this criticism of Carrera is quite exaggerated. I think his defence is adequate. But I don't have data to cite, except what I've seen with my own eyes, which is obviously very subjective. I saw him make a spectacularly good play in the outfield in a recent pre-season game, for example. But I admit this is subjective. Anyone else want to weigh in?"

I don't think our eye test gives us any reason to think he's better than his sub-par stats indicate. He has solid range out there but his routes and decision making are questionable (his camera-dives were definitely worthy of the mockery they received last year), and his glove and arm are mediocre at best.

I think he's on the team basically for pinch running.

Last Year:

Storen: 55.0ip, 87era-, 73fip-, 84xfip-, 1.2fwar, 0.5ra9war
Osuna: 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.3fwar, 2.0ra9war

Last 2 Years (avg):

Storen: 55.2ip, 59era-, 73fip-, 88xfip-, 1.1fwar, 1.5ra9war
Osuna: 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.3fwar, 2.0ra9war

Career (avg):

Storen: 55.2ip, 78era-, 81fip-, 90xfip-, 0.8fwar, 0.9ra9war
Osuna: 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 85xfip-, 1.3fwar, 2.0ra9war


Also in Osuna's favor is that he's only 21 and age curve indicates improvement, and that he did this in the AL east while Storen was in the NL East. On the other hand, against Osuna is that he's only done it one year and is hardly reliable yet.

In this case the decision may have swung on who's looked better this spring, and based on second hand evidence Storen's lack of Ks may have indicated that he was less impressive.

"...I'm betting you weren't guessing that all of biagini/leon/tepera would be on the opening day roster..."

First of all, the only reason that all 3 of those are on the roster is because of Estrada's injury and the decision to skip his start because of the off-days in the early part of the season.  That led to an 8-man bullpen, which allowed the Jays to keep all 3 of the above-mentioned pitchers -- mostly because Biagini and Leon were better than expected, and the Jays don't want to lose them.  That's just good asset management.

The other reason is the injury to Loup, which necessitated the requirement for a second lefty specialist.  Tepera may or may not be the right man for that job, but it's been widely reported that he made some off-season adjustments and has become a better pitcher than he was last year.  Nothing wrong with keeping him on the roster as a temporary Loup replacement.  And the Jays can give him a longer look and see if he's better than Leon, which helps them to make a better decision about who to cut when the bullpen reverts to 7 men.

Finally, it was always known that the Jays would be using the spring competition to choose among a bunch of relievers for the 7th spot in the bullpen.  So at least one of Biagini or Leon was going to be in the bullpen anyway.  They won the competition.  That's good.  It's not some kind of indictment of Shapiro.

"...I think he's on the team basically for pinch running...."

Could be.  I will defer to better experts on his defensive abilities.

We can start to piece together some of the minor league rosters.

I know it is still too early but some players are in development like J Harris and Angel Perdomo. I expect them in Lansing.

Roeman Fields, D Pompey and A Burns will be in AAA or AA depending on space and ranking by the FO. Smith Jr also has to get everyday ABs as he is developing. But is there room for him in Buffalo.

"I'm betting you weren't guessing that all of biagini/leon/tepera would be on the opening day roster, eh?"


I'm not surprised Biagini and Leon made it. They have to keep Biagini on the roster the entire season since he's a Rule 5 pick. The benefit of keeping Leon is he is out of options, so chances are much greater of him sneaking through waivers in the first week of April when Estrada is set to return (whether Leon was a risk to be taken to begin with is another story). Tepera is really the only surprise, but he seems to be a placeholder until Loup gets back. Pretty much every option they had as a replacement for Loup, save for maybe Girado, was a replacement level option at best (Venditte, Tepera, Choate). As long as they are short-term fixes before Loup comes back, it's not a big deal.

The only poor decision was Carrera. I can understand the logic of options as I've been saying for a while now to take advantage of options when they are available, but that's only applicable if the player you are keeping is worth keeping around. Carrera is replacement level at best. Ceciliani had a 0.3 WAR in 39 games last season. He could (emphasize the word "could") be a difference maker on defense and base running. In a season where the Jays have to win, I would have went that direction. Carrera getting claimed was a risk but not one that would have hurt the team. I think Lake is probably more likely to be claimed of the two of them.

While we always forget hot springs of seasons past, I do think there have been more hot performances than usual this year out of guys who didn't make the team:

OF Ceciliani 36ab, 5bb/7k, 0/1sb, 1.333ops
IF Adams 29ab, 4bb/7k, 0/0sb, 1.075ops
C Jimenez 18ab, 3bb/2k, 0/0sb, 1.032ops
OF Fields 16ab, 1bb/4k, 2/3sb, .978ops
UT Burns 35ab, 5bb/5k, 0/0sb, .971ops
OF Pompey 22ab, 2bb/7k, 0/0sb, .928ops
C Sanchez 18ab, 1bb/4k, 0/0sb, .921ops
IF Mier 35ab, 1bb/7k, 1/3sb, .904ops

Buffalo may be in for a good year.

Not a fan of the final decisions personally, although I acknowledge that it is unlikely to impact wins and losses significantly.

For the pitching- Biagini and Leon seem like they have potential so I take no issue there (we have Jenkins down in Buffalo as a "low upside" fallback). However, the fact that we aren't committing to establishing another lefty is a concern for me. I don't believe in reverse splits over large samples and have been generally unimpressed by Tepera. The playoffs have taught us what happens when we don't have Cecil and free agency is looming there. I get that the Jays don't see Venditte as a solution here but I'm hoping that a lefty becomes available through waivers in the coming days (Heck, I'd settle for Matt Reynolds at this point).

Re: Carrera- Asset management is only needed when the player is an asset. Carrera is the very definition of replacement-level player and lacks upside. If someone claims him, there will be another Carrera available within a week. Shane Robinson and Drew Stubbs have been released in the last week alone. Beyond that, the 25th spot on the roster is the exact place to reward performance. Ceciliani seemed like a no-brainer to me but I'd even have preferred Lake or Domonic Brown here. Carrera was BRUTAL in spring training.

Hmmmm.  Here is John Lott on the question of Carrera's defence:  "Carrera has speed, but in polite quarters, he might be described as an outfielder whose defence is best watched through a sleeping mask."

I may have to abandon my previous tentative eye-test opinion.

When you guys aren't pushing the Price and AA narratives (chinafan and ugly one) you make this board so much better. Great discussion and constant content here because of you two. Kudos and keep it up. I especially love all the number crunching you do ugly.

3 more days.

Pretty cool breakdown of the AL East from the Fivethirtyeight guys over at ESPN, who I always find entertaining - I like the way they mix statistical analysis into their subjective analysis:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/even-the-orioles-have-a-shot-in-the-al-east/

Pretty much agree with their general slant on parity.

I buy that the Sox have moved up a bit and the Yanks down a bit, but I don't buy that the Jays are "on par" with either of them.

The jays are significantly better than the rest of the division, imo.

To wit - we could remove all 3 of Bautista, EE, and Donaldson from our lineup and still have an argument that our lineup was as good as any other in the division.

Carrera seems to me to be the definition of replacement level. Lifetime bWAR of 0.1 over 670 PA. Ceciliani, Fields, in fact every outfielder with more than 15 PA's outhit him this spring. In fact the only guys this spring in Toronto who hit worse over 15+ PA's were catcher Russell Martin, infielders Matt Dominguez, Darwin Barney, Richard Urena, and DH Jesus Montero (mostly for Seattle).

Ceciliani or Lake would've been my choice. But as others said it should have minimal impact on the season. Plus we want to keep Buffalo's owners happy.

Hmmmm. Here is John Lott on the question of Carrera's defence: "Carrera has speed, but in polite quarters, he might be described as an outfielder whose defence is best watched through a sleeping mask."

Such a great quote. I love John Lott; at the risk of coming off hyperbolic, he may just be the best-kept secret in sports journalism. Someday soon, the Post is going to rue the day they let him go.

Great post UO.

This is why I feel bad for the rest of the AL East.

They are gonna have a bad summer.

It's baseball, we're all riding high because of what happened last season, but let's not forget that the O's won 96 games and had the 2nd best run differential in the majors the season prior. Unless we put on our rosiest of glasses, it's not hard to imagine Chris Davis, Manny Machado and Adam Jones putting up monster numbers (again).

I expect the Jays to end up on top, but I also expect things to be very competitive from top to bottom.

I actually like the O's too. And I'm probably higher on the Rays than anyone - imo their hitting is always criminally underrated thanks to their ballpark. I think the other four teams in the division are all very close.

But I honestly think putting us in that grouping is just plain underrating our team. IIRC statistically speaking our 93 wins last year was an underachievement based on our individual component performances, not an overachievement. And with Stroman, Tulo, Saunders, and even Travis likely to play more this year that should be a huge upgrade to counter any regression.

And really the perennial Red Sox love still mystifies me. At least 5 of their 9 starting positions they're not even sure they have an mlb caliber starting player to fill. Other than Price and Kimbrel their pitching staff is a similar array of major question marks. I mean I like them better than I did last year, thanks to Dombrowksi's moves (i.e. they actually have a few likely all-stars this year, unlike last year where they didn't have one)....but still, I just don't get it.

Chris Davis - turning 30, has had 2 years that were worth his new contract, every other year was sub 2 for bWAR or below what a regular should be at. K's around 200 times a year. He looks a lot more like Ryan Howard than Jose Bautista as does his contract.

Manny Machado - A 131 OPS+ at 22, should be a star

Adam Jones - Also turning 30, a very stable player who seems to be a 3-4 WAR guy every year.

These 3 were all doing about as good as one could hope last year while Baltimore was a 500 team. They might be 500+ again but they aren't a team I'm too worried about.

NYY: despite the magic that team seems to have sometimes, eventually father time gets everyone and A-Rod, Teixeira, and Beltran are on the wrong side of 35. Yes, their pen was great last year and there is some potential in that team of course but when 1/3rd of your everyday lineup counts on guys over 35 you are taking a major risk.

Boston: desperately needs Ramirez and Panda to remember which end of the bat to use. Need Ortiz to keep ignoring father time (this is his age 40 season). Pitching should be good with David Price and Clay Buchholz although Clay's #1 most similar is Juan Guzman and has Eric Hansen and Oil Can Boyd on that list too and all 3 fell off a cliff in their early 30's.

Tampa: Seems to always contend on a hope and prayer, might pull it off again. Hardest team to predict I suspect.

Jays: killer offense with only Bautista at age 35 or higher, although counting on Bautista/EE/Donaldson to play 145+ games each again might be asking too much. Also won't expect a 120+ OPS+ from bench guys like Colabello/Valencia/Barney did last year. Of course one hopes a DH won't hit as poor as Navarro did last year (88 OPS+) and that Tulo will do more than the 92 OPS+ he had or the 95 that Reyes had here. Hurts to lose Price but that was just 11 starts and if Stroman is healthy all year he'll more than make up for that after just 4 starts in 2015 - could mean 15-18 starts by Stroman instead of Norris, Doubront, Redmond, Copeland, Boyd (15 starts for that crew) plus one hopes that with Hutch in AAA we'll see his 28 starts replaced by someone who can do better than a 71 ERA+

I'm very optimistic that we could see our first ever 100 win Jays team this year. If they do that they'll probably win the East by 10+ games meaning a long fun summer of seeing other teams beat up when they visit and tons of speculation about the playoffs rotation/etc.

For those who've been wondering about our old friend John Stilson:  he's back from injury, and hit 98 mph on the radar gun as he pitched two-thirds of an inning for the Jays in today's game against the Twins.  He struck out two batters.  Unfortunately he also gave up a walk and the game-winning hit as the Jays lost 4-3. 

He's still only 25 and might yet have a future if his injuries are over.  Does Gerry have any guesses about which level of the minors he might be placed at to begin the season? 

An interesting thread at BBTF. I am hereby cutting and pasting one particular post. A certain team really stands out on this list.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Single career franchise HR leaders:

ARI - Goldschmidt 116
ATL - Chipper 468
BAL - Cal 431
BOS - Ted 521
CHC - Banks 512

CHW - ARamirez 109
CIN - Bench 389
CLE - Rosen 192
COL - Helton 369
DET - Kaline 399

HOU - Bagwell 449
KCR - Brett 317
LAA - Salmon 299
LAD - Campanella 242
MIA - Stanton 181

MIL - Braun 255
MIN - Hrbek 293
NYM - Wright 235
NYY - Mantle 536
OAK - DGreen 80

PHI - Schmidt 548
PIT - Stargell 475
SDP - Gwynn 135
SEA - Edgar 309
SFG - Ott 511

STL - Musial 475
TBR - Longoria 205
TEX - Greer 119
TOR - Iorg 20
WSN - Zimmerman 200

Garth Iorg says something,  but so too does Dick Green and Alexei Ramirez.  Some teams have yet to hold on to a power hitter for his entire career. 

Pillar will likely pass Iorg before the All-Star break, but the odds that he will finish his career here are low. 

I guess the silver lining on carrera is that since he's not better at anything than any of the starters, then gibbons will play him as little as possible.

Gibbons likes Carrera, so he's probably going to play regardless. Saunders likely needs extra rest, let's say on away games at home, but he's going to try to push himself because he's on a contract year.

Apparently Carrera can steal bases, 43 at AAA twice before catching Gibby's eye. I haven't seen him do that.
He doesn't walk much, strikes out a lot, has no power and made Revere looks like a gold glove in left field last year.
Other than that, he's decent.

And because I am weak and petty I guess I can't resist one more little dig a the "look at all of shapiro's great depth" crowd - I'm betting you weren't guessing that all of biagini/leon/tepera would be on the opening day roster, eh?

I always though Biagini was a given. I have no idea about Leon. I think he profiles somewhat like Chavez. A guy that doesn't have anything amazing and mixes up several pitches but isn't good enough to start. Did Leon make the team because of Shapiro or Gibbons? Let's put this one on Atkins.

Tepera is another Gibbons pick. No doubt about that. I'm guessing that Cecil will be the situational lefty for now. If Storen isn't the closer he has to be the setup guy. He's another guy on a contract year trying to re-establish himself after flopping following he lost of the closer role to an outsider. Gibby said something about one guy getting lots of chance when the other guy isn't available, but I can't see the setup guy who can only go 1 inning being much more available than the closer who can go 2. I don't expect many starters to go 8 innings.

Giving the closer job to Osuna seem to take him away from the possibility of starting next year. The Jays will have to replace Cecil and Storen, so it would be really hard to replace Osuna as well. Maybe it's because Gibby is now a lame duck and is focused entirely on the current year.

So who would be the last Blue Jay home run leader to get traded away leaving Iorg as the leader again?

(I picture Iorg with a cigar and champagne a la the 72 Dolphins every time one is traded away.)

I'm guessing it was Brett Lawrie?

To wit - we could remove all 3 of Bautista, EE, and Donaldson from our lineup and still have an argument that our lineup was as good as any other in the division.

Right. It's the Jays pitching that is suspect. Dickey struggled for months last year. Stroman is unproven. Nobody was counting on Sanchez. Happ and Estrada have struggled before last year. You never know what you have in the pen until a couple of months in, unless you are the Yankees.

The Jays were a .500 team with all 3 sluggers for more than half of last year.
And they didn't look that good in the playoffs.

Aren't some people on this site struggling with asset management and big picture view. If a significant Player on the Jay's Roster goes on the D.L., someone useful is called up from the Minors and hopefully gives good defense at least. That's why they are called up. One hopes the call-up is much better than just replacement level. Bench players stay Bench players. Call-ups need regular playing time; the others, not so much. In the A.A. years it was kind of missing; this year it's much better.

Now to be more specific, Darrell Ceciliani and Dalton Pompey are the Jays 4th and 5th best MLB/MLB-ready Outfielders right now and both need regular ABs. Presently neither are seen as long-term solutions right now, so regular playing time is needed. Ezequiel Carrera and Junior Lake are perfectly suitable as 4th OF on the Bench as they won't play much. I just hope they took the best defender with them.

"Right. It's the Jays pitching that is suspect. Dickey struggled for months last year. Stroman is unproven. Nobody was counting on Sanchez. Happ and Estrada have struggled before last year. You never know what you have in the pen until a couple of months in, unless you are the Yankees.

The Jays were a .500 team with all 3 sluggers for more than half of last year.
And they didn't look that good in the playoffs."

I agree with the first paragraph I guess. The second one is off the mark. Invoking the .500 record for more than half of last year, as if they were really just an average team at that point, is misleading. Even when they were 50-51 the underlying stats showed that they were probably, if not the best team in the AL, real close to that.

And you can point to any of the 10 team in the playoffs last year as not looking all that good. Hell, the Royals won the world series and they didn't look that good for vast swaths of October imo. The Jays played 11 games which doesn't give you much data in baseball, and has little to do with the 2016 team...

"Saunders likely needs extra rest, let's say on away games at home"

I don't see him getting much rest, then

The Jays were terrible in April of 2015 (11-12), but going 1-6 verses Tampa Bay did most of that. The Jays were worse in May of 2015 (12-17), but a 14-game stretch from May 10th - 23rd (3-11) did most of that.

So how can the Jays improve?
1) The Offense: is absolutely World Class and a huge improvement over 2015. The depth of the hitters they have now should limit the slow starts and the cold spells that always exist.
2) The Defense: is one of the very best in all of Baseball and much improved over 2015. It's just possible it could get better - Votto anyone?
3) The Rotation: has many more answers than questions; 2015 was just the reverse. They don't have to be the best possible this year, just good.
4) The Bullpen: could be amazing. Everyone is an improvement over what showed up last year. They might be best ever?

Besides Carrera's less than stellar defence, I don't think he's much of a baserunner either. Besides the infamous triple play where he and Pillar both ended up at third base, and both were eventually tagged out, I noticed him make several other boneheaded outs on the basepaths. I support the younger guys getting regular at-bats at Buffalo, but I would have taken Lake or Brown ahead of Zeke.

Lake would have been my choice.  I wasn't very impressed by Brown.
 
But hey, here's another 4th-outfielder option:  Travis Snider has just been released from his minor-league contract with the Royals.  He's available again!

The Offense: is absolutely World Class and a huge improvement over 2015.

Let's hope so. They scored a pitiful 891 runs in 2015.

"Right. It's the Jays pitching that is suspect."

sure, but from my vantage point that's a much closer comparison than our huge advantage offensively:

Last 2yrs as SP:

Stroman 24gs, 6.2ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 83xfip-
Price 66gs, 7.1ip/gs, 74era-, 71fip-, 76xfip-
Tanaka 44gs, 6.6ip/gs, 79era-, 87fip-, 75xfip-
Archer 66gs, 6.2ip/gs, 87era-, 82fip-, 85xfip-
Gausman 37gs, 5.8ip/gs, 96era-, 92fip-, 98xfip-

Dickey 66gs, 6.4ip/gs, 96era-, 111fip-, 113xfip-
Porcello 59gs, 6.4ip/gs, 101era-, 100fip-, 94xfip-
Eovaldi 60gs, 5.9ip/gs, 112era-, 89fip-, 99xfip-
Odorizzi 59gs, 5.7ip/gs, 99era, 96fip-, 100xfip-
Tillman 65gs, 5.9ip/gs, 102era-, 104fip-, 112xfip-

Happ 57gs, 5.7ip/gs, 100era-, 98fip-, 98xfip-
Buchholz 46gs, 6.2ip/gs, 111era-, 92fip-, 97xfip-
Pineda 40gs, 5.9ip/gs, 88era-, 76fip-, 78xfip-
Smyly 37gs, 5.8ip/gs, 86era-, 101fip-, 96xfip-
Gallardo 65gs, 5.8ip/gs, 86era-, 99fip-, 103xfip-

Estrada 46gs, 6.0ip/gs, 100era-, 124fip-, 120fip-
Kelly 42gs, 5.5ip/gs, 112era-, 111fip-, 105xfip-
Sabathia 37gs, 5.8ip/gs, 121era-, 114fip-, 95xfip-
Ramirez 41gs, 5.3ip/gs, 106era-, 110fip-, 106xfip-
Jimenez 54gs, 5.6ip/gs, 108era-, 106fip-, 104xfip-

Sanchez 11gs, 6.0ip/gs, 87era-, 127fip-, 115xfip-
Rodriguez 21gs, 5.8ip/gs, 91era-, 99fip-, 100xfip-
Severino 11gs, 5.7ip/gs, 71era-, 105fip-, 92xfip-
Cobb 27gs, 6.2ip/gs, 78era-, 87fip-, 88xfip- (out until midseason)
Worley 25gs, 6.0ip/gs, 92era-, 96fip-, 102xfip-

Floyd 9gs, 6.0ip/gs, 73era-, 106fip-, 98xfip-
Wright 10gs, 5.7ip/gs, 86era-, 119fip-, 114xfip-
Nova 21gs, 5.5ip/gs, 141era-, 127fip-, 115xfip-
Moore 14gs, 5.2ip/gs, 131era-, 123fip-, 119xfip-
Wilson 5gs, 5.0ip/gs, 105era-, 97fip-, 124xfip-

Chavez 47gs, 5.9ip/gs, 103era-, 99fip-, 95xfip-
Elias 49gs, 5.7ip/gs, 106era-, 112fip-, 106xfip-
???
Colome 16gs, 5.5ip/gs, 98era-, 108fip-, 112xfip-
Wright 9gs, 4.6ip/gs, 157era-, 147fip-, 136xfip-

Hutch 60gs, 5.5ip/gs, 124era-, 103fip-, 102xfip-
Owens 11gs, 5.7ip/gs, 109era-, 108fip-, 124xfip-
???
Andriese 8gs, 4.4ip/gs, 92era-, 105fip-, 109xfip-
???

So who would be the last Blue Jay home run leader to get traded away leaving Iorg as the leader again?

Without much research, I think the recent leaderboard would look like:

• Olerud/Gruber/Sprague (90's)
• Delgado (until 2004)
• Wells (until 2010)
• Lind (until 2014)
• Iorg (2015)
• Pillar (sometime in 2016... he has 17) Neat topic... shocking result.

Besides Carrera's less than stellar defence, I don't think he's much of a baserunner either.

Apparently he could steal if Gibby would let him, but he doesn't have the base running instincts of Pillar.

We'll see how Gibby uses his depth players as soon as next week.
Then spring training numbers won't mean anything and we'll be staring at the fluke numbers of April.

Invoking the .500 record for more than half of last year, as if they were really just an average team at that point, is misleading. Even when they were 50-51 the underlying stats showed that they were probably, if not the best team in the AL, real close to that.

In the end, the win-loss record is the only thing that count.
I'm not saying that it has any predicting value on its own, but the win-loss record is what we're predicting.
The same thing can certainly happen again.
What we have this year is largely the same team as last year and the personal stats are likely to regress somewhat.
In baseball the first 60 wins are almost automatic, the next 20 are relatively easy, but the next 20 wins are very hard.
You can't predict those. It only takes a couple of injuries to completely change the picture.

This is a team that should have a lot of easy wins, but will they win the close ones?

I don't see the Jays ever locking up a hitter for his entire career.
Seems more likely somebody will have a freak injury and retire early.

"In the end, the win-loss record is the only thing that count."

then why look at a win loss record from midseason?

"What we have this year is largely the same team as last year and the personal stats are likely to regress somewhat."

With Stroman, Sanchez, Storen, Tulowitki, Saunders and others injected into the lineup there's plenty of reason to expect positive regression from a good chunk of the roster imo.

Last year both pythag and baseruns saw us as a 100+ win team. Even a regression from that leaves us in good shape. We didn't benefit from fluke luck last year...more likely the opposite.

then why look at a win loss record from midseason?

Keep in mind I'm just arguing why other people don't the see the Blue Jays 2016 as a 95+ win team.

Most of the trade deadline acquisitions are gone.
Tulo and Saunders are no stranger to the DL.

The manager is the same guy who doesn't seem to know who Pythagoras was.
The depth chart is worrying. Where do we have good backups?
Maybe in the outfield, if they call up the right guy and he performs. Seems unlikely.
Maybe Goins can be replaced easily since he's already a replacement player himself.
That's about it, isn't it?

Let's hope so. They scored a pitiful 891 runs in 2015.

Let's hope they take a huge lead in April when everybody is mostly healthy.

"....The manager is the same guy who doesn't seem to know who Pythagoras was...."

He's also the same guy who guided the Jays to the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.  As soon as he was given the talent to win, he led them to the post-season. 

But sure, let's search for convoluted statistical arguments to use against him.

"...The depth chart is worrying. Where do we have good backups?...."

I find this a very odd accusation.  There is depth everywhere, except perhaps behind the plate.  There are good back-up options at virtually every position.  I'm quite pleased with the depth.  But let's review it:

Starting rotation:  Hutchison is available in Buffalo, while Floyd and Chavez are available in the bullpen.  That's excellent depth, and far better than the Jays have usually had in the past.

Bullpen:  there are 8 good relievers on the 25-man roster now. In addition, Loup and Schultz will be back soon.  And in Buffalo there are Venditte, Girodo, Jenkins, Diamond, LeBlanc, Rowen, Dragmire, etc.   That's good depth.

Outfield:  Pompey and Ceciliani are great depth.  Junior Lake and/or Domonic Brown might also be available, depending on waivers and unofficial agreements to stay or go.

Infield:  Andy Burns is major-league-ready.  Travis will be back later in the season. Adams and Mier have been better than expected.  That's very good depth.

Catcher:  the depth at the moment is Tony Sanchez and Quintero.  Not great, but Sanchez at least had a good spring offensively and might be an option.

First base and DH:  there are 3 good players on the major-league roster, plus Kotchman and Montero probably in Buffalo.  Good depth.

Overall -- the Jays are in excellent shape.  You can quibble here or there, but you can't say that they don't have good options at most positions.  I'd call it better depth than they have had for years.  You can argue that the payroll isn't high enough (a valid concern), but I think the depth is one of the last things that can be attacked.

I'm not so sure any of the 1B/DH options are so great.
You think Andy Burns can replace Donaldson? Or even Tulo?
Pompey or Ceciliani can't replace Bautista's bat.

It's perfectly normal not to be able to replace all-stars with AAA backup, but the Jays really don't have too many top prospects waiting to take over.

On the plus side I really like the pitching depth, but it's not going to help if some regulars underperform or if the top pitchers hit the shelves.

This will be, without a doubt, the best Blue Jays team I've ever seen, but nothing is sure.

Of course I'm not saying that Andy Burns is as good as Donaldson, or that Pompey is as good as Bautista.  But they are perfectly adequate back-ups.  Nobody expects a minor-leaguer to step into the lineup and be exactly as good as the veteran that they are replaced.  But if there are injuries, it won't be a disaster.  That's what "adequate depth" means.

You think Andy Burns can replace Donaldson? Or even Tulo? Pompey or Ceciliani can't replace Bautista's bat.

I don't understand statements like this. If those guys could replace the stars, they'd be stars themselves and in somebody's starting lineup.

It's strange to mention Burns as the back-up for Tulo. The Jay middle-infield depth chart is Tulo, Travis, Goins, Barney.  This is excellent.  Is there a better middle infield depth chart in baseball?  The Giants have Crawford and Panik but it's pretty soft after that.  The Red Sox have Bogaerts, Pedroia and Brock Holt.  The Indians have Lindor, Kipnis and Jose Ramirez.

"3) The Rotation: has many more answers than questions;"

Uh, really?

I am not hating on the team and I hope for big things, but that is assuming that the rotation holds together. They are MOSTLY questions, not answers.

I have a lot of love for Stroman, but he is still unproven. After that you have a streaky pitcher that could fall part at any moment, two guys who are riding the fact that they put it together ONCE out of many average or less seasons and a #5 who very well might belong in the bullpen.

Now this rotation COULD all work out... but to say that it has 'more answers than questions' is pure rosy-red sunglass time.

"....It's strange to mention Burns as the back-up for Tulo...."

Of course Goins or Barney would replace Tulo if he is injured.  But there would still be a need to promote someone from the minors, since the Jays would still need a back-up infielder on the bench.  Assuming that Travis is still injured, the first depth option is probably Andy Burns (based on everything that Gibbons has been saying all spring).  He would become the utility infielder on the bench.  The next options are Adams or Mier.   So there are three options in the minors, plus Travis on the DL, plus Barney on the bench.

Sure.  That would make Burns #5 on the middle infield depth chart.  It is unusual to have a better-than-replacement level player in the #5 slot.  Maybe Burns would be better than replacement level and maybe he would not be, but it's a very, very minor issue. 

The real question to my mind is whether Ryan Goins is an above-average player (as the odds that gets 400-500 PAs are quite high).  The projection systems say that he is not.  I say that he is.  I guess we'll find out soon enough. 

"Keep in mind I'm just arguing why other people don't the see the Blue Jays 2016 as a 95+ win team."

to be fair, most standard predictions are very high on the jays and not so high on say the sox. It's the analytics end that is down on the jays and higher on the sox - and imo there's good evidence the projections are missing the boat on these teams, as they did the last year or two.

I also think you might be exaggerating what other teams have sitting in AAA ready to help - and might be missing that the bisons look pretty stacked on the hitting side.

you are advocating well for the devil, though. :)

With Floyd returning to the bullpen, I wonder how Gibbons will use it.  It's best (given Gibbons' abilities) if there are more or less set roles.  Storen seems to me much more vulnerable to LHBs than Floyd.  I wonder if the club would give the 7th inning to Cecil/Storen of close games depending on handedness/workload issues with Floyd the 8th and Osuna the 9th. 

Based on the way Gibbons managed last season, I definitely think the bullpen needs set roles. If that means Cecil, Storen, and Osuna in the 7th, 8th, and 9th respectively, then so be it. He seemed to be throwing a lot of darts out there last season because of lack of established options (plus Cecil having command/injury issues for a stretch). With three set guys, and then Loup returning to be more of a situational lefty, it in theory should be a lot easier for Gibby to manage it. He can play around with the other spots depending on how the other RP's (Floyd, Chavez, Biagini, etc) are doing.

As far as depth, I think the Jays are solid other than the catcher position (which will be pretty bad if Martin has to miss time). Could always be better but I think they did a good job covering their tracks without allocating a ton of money into it. Would have been nice to nab someone like Will Venable to handle the 4th OF duties instead of Carrera, though.

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but Joe Peta at ESPN had this interesting observation in his projection/betting guide:

"In 2015, the Blue Jays had the beat team defense in the majors, by a wide margin. Forget what FanGraphs (23rd-ranked defense, via UZR) or even Baseball Reference (seventh-ranked defense, via Baseball Information Solutions) says, and trust my calculations (and Baseball Prospectus), which looks not at the sum of the individual ratings of each player, but the effectiveness of the entire unit -- and that calculation easily sees Toronto as 2015's best defense.

No other team prevented batted balls from turning into baserunners, or erased existing baserunners, better than the Blue Jays."


He also projects the Jays finishing first in the East with 91 wins, and adds the recommendation that betters take the over.

What we have this year is largely the same team as last year and the personal stats are likely to regress somewhat.

I disagree.
Too many people responsible for the Jays 2015 April and May record are in the Minors or just gone. These are just a few of those who no longer on the Roster:
Starters: Mark Buehrle, Daniel Norris and Drew Hutchison;
Bullpen: Miguel Castro, Liam Hendriks, Chad Jenkins and Steve Delabar
Hitters: Dalton Pompey, Maicer Izturis, Jose Reyes, Danny Valencia, Devon Travis and Dioner Navarro

Most everyone had career average years, including Bautista and Encarnacion. Travis and Colabello don't have a big enough samples to establish career averages. No one knows any longer what Donaldson's career average will be. Talking about regression is fine, except most people normally have career average years. Very few people have years that are noticeably different. Any one who doesn't expect the Jays to crush their opposition could be a pessimist.

Yes.  I posted a week or two about the pitcher BABIP projections, which I found to be unrealistically high given the quality of the team defence (incidentally Saunders vs. Colabello/Valencia/Revere is probably an upgrade and missing half a season of Reyes is also an upgrade). 

My two biggest issues with the projections for the Blue Jays 2016 are team defence and late bloomers.  Subjectively, I have the Blue Jays at 102 wins; I take an expansive view of the synergy between team defence and young pitcher development and I realize that is not proven.  I'd certainly take the "way over" on the 84 wins suggested by fangraphs.  

yeah, my big sticking point with the projection systems is their blindness to late bloomers - and on the flipside giving too much credit in general to what players did 4+ years ago.

But what also hurts the Jays is that the projection system team projections all intentionally ignore era and focus only on the component FIP parts of the equation, which likely underrates our rotation in particular, and imo is becoming more dubious every year as the weaknesses of fip are exposed.

And yeah also defense is something which projection systems have a very tough time dealing with, and regress very heavily - so if the jays defense is as good as it looks, this quite literally won't be seen in the projections.

And this leads to another philosophical issue I have with projections - they will always regress outlier star performers more heavily than borderline players - which imp creates an inherent bias in all team projections, and will value depth of mediocrity over star talent every time.

In the end, while I do believe in projections generally, I think we can spot questionable projections in some cases - i.e. when you see 90+% of a roster projected to decrease (or increase) in value over recent years projections, imo you're looking at an unlikely projection. That was my key reason for doubting last years projections for the jays (in which almost every player was projected to get worse), and the sox (in which almost every player was projected to get better). I have much the same issue with this year's projections.

"....Too many people responsible for the Jays 2015 April and May record are in the Minors or just gone..."

Richard actually makes a good point here.  Some rather mediocre or unreliable players -- from Hutchison and Reyes to Castro and Norris -- aren't on the opening-day roster, and that's probably a good thing.  Those positions have been upgraded.

On the other hand, some players will inevitably regress, and it's impossible to predict who it will be.  Players that we think are reliable will turn out to be dodgy.  That's the way it always happens.

It's almost like the projection systems were designed to discredit the Jays and credit Boston. Or maybe the Jays and Boston were designed to bust the systems. The real games can't start soon enough :)

Regarding the pen, Gibbons has been indicating that he thinks that Chavez could become a valuable guy in late innings situation - wouldn't be surprised if Chavez is the 7th inning guy initially.

Potential Bisons' Lineup, with career AAA wRC+ (which is pinned to league average and gets rid of PCL inflation):

CF Pompey (23): 351pa, 118wrc+
RF Ceciliani (26): 254pa, 157wrc+
LF Lake (26): 551pa, 120wrc+
3B Burns (25): 527pa, 112wrc+
SS Barney (30): 1190pa, 81wrc+
2B Adams (29): 333pa, 112wrc+
1B Kotchman (33): 374pa, 110wrc+
DH Montero (26): 1898pa, 129wrc+
C Sanchez (28): 1215pa, 114wrc+

UT Casilla (31): 1237pa, 100wrc+
OF Brown (28): 759pa, 111wrc+
IF Mier (25): 118pa, 80wrc+
C Jimenez (26): 366pa, 74wrc+

Shaw beat out Sandoval for the Sox third base job.

Cue the dead weight puns, they've never been more apt.

The Red Sox could be a fun "car crash" team to follow - Sandoval & Castillo starting on the bench makes for a lot of potential grousing - that's a lot of potentially dead money (not to mention Allen Craig in the minors) - if the Sox don't move those guys soon (an unenviable task), the fun times of 2011 may be back.

THose moves reek of farrell trying to save his skin. He knows he's on thin ice. especially after the team played well under lovullo last year. still can't believe farrell has a ring.

But man, now they have a 26yr old who couldn't hit in AAA as their starting 3B, and a backup IF starting in left. and they're not sure they have viable starters at CF, 1B, or C either. yikes.

When assessing the offense, I think it's wise to recall that the 2015 team hit disproportionately well in the highest leverage situations. Even if the individual hitters all hit as they did last year, the team would be hard-pressed to match their run scoring.

Jays vs the AL:
bases empty: 735 vs. 722
men on: 878 vs. 756

The performance jump between bases empty and men on was well beyond the league norm and not the type of jump you could count on being repeated. That level of efficiency is not, I believe, an innate skill, but rather a byproduct of chance. Were the split 775/820 say, to keep in line with the league's 722/756 ratio, the team would have scored far fewer runs.

There will be a few surprise teams in baseball. NL and AL. There always are.

I was very surprised by the ending record of the 2013 Jays. They even surprised the experts.

Chuck, I don't think that one ought to expect the same runners on/bases empty split as league average from the Blue Jay offence because of the lineup construction and quality.  It does tend to a potent long-sequence offence which means more at-bats against tired pitchers with runners on base than typical.  I'll grant that I would not expect the split to be as extreme in 2016 as it was last year. 

I anticipate that the club will score 50 fewer runs and allow 40 fewer.  I also anticipate that Gibbons will find it easier to manage the bullpen in the early going of 2016, as compared with 2015.  Let the good times roll. 

I concede your point Mike. But I do stand by my main argument: a team with a 797 OPS is not likely to score 5.5 runs per game (league averages 730, 4.4). That 797, absolutely impressive on its own, was an efficient 797, making it even more imposing.

wRC+ might help us there.

Jays put up a 117wrc+ as a team last year, so 17% above average. Except that that average doesn't include pitchers - with pitchers, mlb in total posted a 96wrc+. So the Jays were actually 21% above average. MLB team average was 4.25 runs per game, Jays were at 5.5 - 29% above average. So obviously their runs outpaced their production - except I'm not sure that that is supposed to be a linear relationship anyways - iirc teams at the extremes should outperform their production due to cumulative effects.

But still, if their runs had matched their production perfectly, we'd be looking at 825 runs or so, still the best in baseball by a mile. And that would still have given us almost a full run scored (5.10) more than we allowed (4.14), which would have still been best in baseball, and given us a pythag in the high 90s (I think).

The gong show in Baltimore continues... They're trying to send Hyun-soo Kim to the minors after he stunk up spring training and (according to Rosenthal) Kim is resisting because, well, it says right there in his contract that he can't be sent down without his consent. So their options are to carry him on the roster or eat the full 2-years $7M of said contract.

I remain skeptical of the Shapiro regime, but the Jays may have dodged a bullet when they didn't get Duquette.

No question, Chuck.  Teams that post slash lines comparable to the Blue Jay offence (check 2002-2004 for a bunch of them) usually score in the 830-850 range.  The Blue Jays also were an effective base-running and stealing club, and had a lineup that might do a little better than average in terms of run scoring efficiency.  I have them docked 20-30 runs for hyper-efficiency. 

here's some technically dense support for Estrada being legit last year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-starting-pitcher-ball-in-play-retrospective-al-east

The Jays have an elite offense, elite defense, and good enough rotation that might be undervalued by projections (Dickey and possibly Estrada specifically have skill sets that are undervalued by FIP based WAR). The pen looks good on paper but that's a highly volatile spot so I'm always reluctant to get too excited about it, but on paper there are 3 potential 1+ WAR candidates and good enough depth behind them.

I think the Jays should be the favorites, but we'll see how it plays out. It will be close. All five teams are solid to very good.

Do we know which minor leaguers are going to Montreal? Seems like a great experience!

I looked at the fangraphs depth charts again, and calculated that they project every Jay to be the same or worse this than they were last year both in total production and in production per PA, except the following:

1.Stroman - projected to increase WAR, but not WAR/200ip.
2.Saunders - projected to increase both over his tiny negative value sample from last year.
3.Thole - technically projected to improve but effectively just replacement again.

Which leaves us with only 2 player actually projected to improve over last year:

4.Tulowitzki
5.Sanchez

Those are the only two projected to be legitimately better players this year.


Other than that, 3 others are projected to be about the same as last year - Bautista, Martin, and Osuna.

THe rest are all projected to be worse anywhere from half a win to 2 wins apiece.

I generally don't follow any Site's projections as they're too pessimistic and can't defend their position. Any site which projects one- and two-year players to regress has little value. Players that new haven't established who they are yet. Any site which projects players in their prime that basically had career average years to regress is inaccurate. Anyone who follows a Team and pays attention to team news/transactions/stuff can usually tell if a player's any good.

As usual, health will be key for the Jays in 2016. The Yankees have already been hit hard: Bird is out for the season and Mitchell might be out for three months (and Chapman has been suspended for 30 games). If the Jays can stay healthy, I think they'll be in good shape.

So their options are to carry him on the roster or eat the full 2-years $7M of said contract.

I remain skeptical of the Shapiro regime, but the Jays may have dodged a bullet when they didn't get Duquette.

I don't know. I think that's overshadowed by their Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard making the team after he went .390/.463/.576 this spring.

Maybe these are just hot and cold streaks,  but it's not like Kim leaves a black hole in the lineup.

"I don't know. I think that's overshadowed by their Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard making the team after he went .390/.463/.576 this spring"

that'd be like praising the jays for putting Ceciliani in the starting lineup.

Rickard was in AAA for the first time last year at age 24 (29 games, 909 OPS) so I can see him having some potential but as a 4th outfielder not as a starter. The fact the Orioles are seriously considering him as their leadoff hitter says to me that they are not serious contenders. A Rule 5 pick who has just 29 games in AAA and 133 in AA (775 OPS there) should not be your leadoff hitter to start the season unless you have a major hole that you just couldn't figure out. Now, maybe he will be something else in the majors after hitting just 13 HR in 1499 PA in the minors but guys with that little power rarely can succeed unless they are middle infielders or have amazing speed (73-23 SB-CS in minors so good speed but not Tim Raines level).

Don't get me wrong, I'd love him to be here as our 4th OF instead of Carrera but not as an everyday player.

I anticipate that the club will score 50 fewer runs and allow 40 fewer."

Did you arrive at this as a holistic assessment or by considering each individual player? I took the individual approach and arrived at 852 runs scored (down 39) and 684 runs allowed (up 14). Pythagoras translates this as a 97-win season. Which sounds optimistic, despite my attempts to be conservative.

Thanks, Jonny.  It was a bit of both on the run prevention side (the synergy between team defence and young pitcher development being particularly important in the case of Stroman and Sanchez) and mostly player by player on the run scoring side.  You'll note that our run scoring projections are extremely close.  The difference on the run prevention side is entirely reasonable, given greater variability in young pitcher projection. 

I anticipate that the club will match its Pythagorean this year.  The bullpen follies of the first half of last year are unlikely to be repeated, in my view. 

For what it's worth, fangraphs has projected the Blue Jays scoring 761 runs and allowing 735 in 2016. Needless to say, I think both figures are unreasonable.

I anticipate that the club will match its Pythagorean this year.

I wonder -- and am more inclined to just speculate than actually research this at the moment -- whether high-scoring teams are inherently inclined to underperform Pythagoras. The rationale would be that blowouts lead to many low-leverage runs (in a 14-3 game, run 14 is not terribly consequential). I argued last year that the Jays scored many such low-leverage runs. Pythagoras treats all runs equally and this is where trouble starts. Pythagoras would treat the Jays more nicely had they won their game 8-3 rather than 14-3.

Did we beat our Pythag after the trade deadline? Or at least match it?

The Yankees of 1996-2012 were almost always a high-scoring team and beat Pythagoras pretty handily over that time.  They had Mariano Rivera and a manager who did not feel the need to lock down a big lead.  I am hopeful that Gibbons might modify his approach in 2016 with better and more seasoned options than last year. 

Did we beat our Pythag after the trade deadline? Or at least match it? From Tulowitzki's first until they clinched the division (hey, if we're throwing out pre-deadline, might as well throw out meaningless games too) the team went 42-14. Runs scored were 342, runs allowed were 200. Using one form of Pythag (squaring), you get a .745 expected win percentage, or 41.7-14.3. Using the proper exponent of 1.83 gives a .727 win percentage, or 40.7-15.3. Long story short, yes the Jays beat it in that stretch of games.

Here are some thoughtful comments from Shapiro about spring training facilities and player development. 

After the deadline last year, Gibbons had Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Lowe and Hawkins, and the lock-down issue became less of a problem. 

I like to look at last season in 3 chunks:

1. 1st 2mos were a disaster, the rotation imploded as did our best relievers.
2. from the end of april to the start of june gibby rejigged everything - sanchez and norris moved out of the rotation, cecil and loup bumped down the reliever pecking order and osuna, sanchez, hendriks moved up. Pompey down Cola up, etc. This resulted in a very good team in the middle two months.
3. The last 2 months were a very different team with all the trade additions. They were just awesome.

APR/MAY: 52gms, 23-29, 268rs/243ra, .442win%, .549pyth
JUN/JUL: 52gms, 30-22, 282rs/203ra, .577win%, .659pyth
AUG/SEP: 58gms, 40-18, 341rs/224ra, .690win%, .699pyth

So while the team improved in the 2nd 2 months they were still the same pythag-underachieving team as always, even with their pen pitching great.

But the post deadline team was something different - not only were they a far better team in terms of production, but finally they stopped underachieving and started matching their pythag for the first time in recent memory. Interestingly this came even with the bullpen not as effective the last 2 months.

This could well fit an old-school narrative about the team suddenly "believing they could win" or that they "learned how to win", if you like. That would dovetail nicely with the apparent burst of confidence and energy the trades seemed to give them. If we do believe that our underachieving pythag was more about intangibles, then it might be that we've fixed it.

Bullpen performance over those periods:

APR/MAY: 2.86ip/gm, 3.87era
JUN/JUL: 3.13ip/gm, 2.82era
AUG/SEP: 2.83ip/gm, 3.83era

If you want to include the games after they clinched, you can do that but it doesn't really reflect much.   The bullpen allowed 17 runs in 21.2 innings in the post-clinch period. 

but they still matched their pythag including those games.

I know, but they got blown out twice in 5 games (they were blown out 12 times all season).  The August/September figures total don't really describe what happened.  From August 1 until they clinched, they won blew out the opposition 3-1 (as they had all season) and won their share of the close games- with the help of the improved bullpen.  From the date of clinching on, it was very different as the games were treated as essentially meaningless. 

and even taking away those post-clinch games the post deadline pen still doesn't match what the pen did in JUN/JUL.

Mr.Stark kinda likes the Jays:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/seasonpreview_wsbluejays/why-toronto-blue-jays-win-world-series

and even taking away those post-clinch games the post deadline pen still doesn't match what the pen did in JUN/JUL.

The star of the pen in June and July was Liam Hendriks.  Gibbons had him pitching in low leverage situations, and so his excellent work exacerbated the Pythagorean deficit rather than ameliorating it.  It was easier for Gibbons to put the right pitcher in the right spot when he had more pitchers with a track record. 

I dunno mike not sure I buy it. The post trade deadline bullpen had much less stress on them, both in innings and in leverage, and put up significantly worse numbers than they had in the previous couple months.

Osuna and Hendricks moving up in priority was definitely the key in June, followed by cecil finally turning it around and Sanchez joining them in July.

But even with that excellent bullpen work, the team still vastly underperformed their pythag.

Even in their post deadline August, the success was built on Osuna and Cecil and Sanchez, with Hawkins pitching in some good low lev work.

I'm not convinced that pythag over and under achievement is a function of the bullpen. Bullpen quality is factored into pythag already.

Some confirmation of what Spring Training stats might actually mean something, and which Blue Jay may have shown a legit improvement:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-real-winners-of-spring-training/#comment-5110155

In April, the Jays were basically average (11-12), losing 4 out of 5 once and 4 straight once.
In May, the Jays were bad (12-17), going 3-11 from May 10th-23rd.
In June, the Jays had an amazing month with an 11-game win streak at the start. In fact, they were 14-3 before becoming average again.
In July, the Jays were basically average (12-13), going 4-8 into the All Star Break.
August was a month to remember, the Jays had an 11-game and a 5-game win streak (21-5).
In September the Jays roared their way to the A.L. East Pennant (19-12). They were 18-8 until they clinched. The remaining games were meaningless. They shouldn't have been.

Explain that as best as you can, because you'll have to go player by player to explain it all. Right now the discussion about it still isn't all right/correct.

Is it my imagination, or did the same assessment of the Jays in April of 2015 go from "terrible" to "basically average" in merely two days?

It's the opening day lineup minus Encarnacion for tonight's game in Montreal. 

On Wed March 30th Richard SS posted:

"The Jays were terrible in April of 2015 (11-12)"

On Friday April 1st Richard posted:

"In April, the Jays were basically average (11-12)"

-----

Good job Rich!

In April, the Jays went 11-12, and were 9-7 on April 23rd (after going 2-5 in week two). There were times they couldn't stop the bleeding.
1) The Jays scored six or more runs 10 times for a record of 9-1 (Relief lost).
2) When they scored three-five runs, 5 times, they had a record of 2-3 (Relief lost twice).
3) When they scored less than three runs, 8 times, they had a record of 0-8 (Relief lost twice).
4) Offense really sucked for only four games (twice in 3), while Starters were out of sync in four games (twice in 3).

I thought the Jays should have won five more games in April. Of course, avoiding the four loses out of five, April 13th-17th; and avoiding losing four straight, April 24th-27th could really can everything. Incidentally, six of those losses were to Tampa Bay. When they needed a hot start, they were terrible.

In April 2015 they had an average month, but I thought they were terrible. Bringing back, for game two, every Reliever that pitched in game one with a two run lead was stupid.

"and which Blue Jay may have shown a legit improvement"

It's funny - after he was drafted, most people were excited about Sanchez as a potential front-rotation starting pitcher. Then a contrarian position emerged that he was probably unsuited to be a starting pitcher, and that he was better suited to being a late-inning reliever. Then that became the mainstream position, with the contrarian position being that he should be a SP. Now the mainstream position is that he should be a SP, with scouts saying he could be a #1 or #2 starter.

A good reminder that mainstream opinion about a player can do a 180 over time.

Ian Hunter @bluejayshunter
Pedro Martinez just told Buck Martinez off camera: "Marcus Stroman's going to be better than I am".

I wouldn't hold your breathe on that one. Not many pitchers in the history of the MLB will be better than Pedro.

I hope Stroman is better than Pedro is otherwise the Jay will have trouble. After all Pedro is 44 years old and hasn't pitched since 2009.

Realistically though, who knows what Stroman's potential is or what he might do. He could collapse or become a HOF level pitcher. Odds are somewhere inbetween, hopefully on the side of regular All-Star.

I'm not convinced that pythag over and under achievement is a function of the bullpen. Bullpen quality is factored into pythag already.

Pitching is the same for all starters and they all pitch from a clean slate. The bullpen might have situational splits and I don't see how pythag accounts for that. Some pitchers are more likely to pitch when the score is close and some are more likely to pitch when one of the team has a huge lead.

I think Pedro also said Bartolo Colon was better than him.

Maybe he's just a humble guy.

Stro's gonna make a Cy push this year.

Hopefully Stroman is better than vintage should-have-been-MVP Pedro. And, like some scouts said, Sanchez is even better. It is the time of year we can all be optimists, no?

I just checked the 40-man roster.   As far as I can tell, there are only 36 or 37 names on it, including Travis who could be shifted to the 60-man DL.  It doesn't seem to include Jesus Montero or Junior Lake, who could be added to the 40-man if they pass through waivers (unless they accept a minor-league deal).  But there should still be space for one or two more acquisitions.  With most teams now having finalized their rosters and made their final spring-training cuts, there will be a lot of names on the waiver wire at the moment.  Shapiro and Atkins are still obsessed with depth, so I would expect the Jays to pick up one or two players on waivers in the next few days, or to persuade them to sign minor-league deals.  The Buffalo rotation still looks thin -- I count only 4 starting pitchers in the Buffalo rotation, and they need a 5th starter plus a swing-man or long reliever, so the Jays must be looking for pitchers, and probably position players too.  Could be an interesting few days on the roster-juggling front.

I don't really trust any 40 roster out there. It should be at 39 or 40.
It will all clear out in a couple of days.

The 40-man roster is here:  http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/roster/40-man/
(Just subtract all the names with a double-asterisk, which are the minor-league contracts.)

It has 37 names on it (excluding the minor-league contracts but including players such as Dominguez, Rowen and McFarland who could be probably dropped if neceesary).  That list of 37 names includes Travis, but doesn't include Montero or Lake. But we can't assume that Montero and Lake will both pass through waivers unclaimed.  Anyway it's a maximum of 39 names, even if everyone gets through waivers.

I assume Travis can be placed on the 60-day DL to create another spot, because he's unlikely to be back in the majors until June.  I believe he can do his minor-league rehab while technically still being on the 60-day DL.  But even if I'm wrong about that, and even if the Jays think that Travis can be back in the majors before the end of May (which seems over-optimistic), there would still be at least one spot available on the 40-man roster now.

I too count 37 on the 40 man roster.

Just 2 catchers on the 40 man roster. Martin and Thole. I would be happy with adding a catcher from other teams' castoffs. Of course he would have to have options left.

Anyone good would be nice too.

Wishful thinking. Did I put the ' in the correct place.

I believe  it was at 40 with Lake and Delabar and Montero.

Delabar is gone so 39. Lake and Montero are both out of options so they can be dropped and outrighted to the minors if they clear waivers. It's expected that someone will pick Delabar.

I don't know when the exact deadlines are.

The Jays are at the bottom of the waiver list, so basically they can only claim players that nobody else wants.

They might be able to free another spot by putting Travis on the 60 DL, but they would need a spot on the 40 roster to promote anyone that is out of options. Choate, for example, should he sign with Buffalo.

I think they can be patient with McFarland. They will have to replace almost the entire pen next year.
McFarland only played 10 games at AAA last year, but he was excellent in AA with few hits and a K/BB ratio of 10.33.

Agreed on McFarland Scott.  The team has a habit of sending their preferred relief 'prospects' to the AFL - this year it was Girodo and Dragmire, McFarland in 2014 (along with Osuna, who needed innings), Ryan Tepera and Sam Dyson in 2012, Loup in 2011, Farquhar and Zep in 2010. 

He looked good last year - no need to take him off the 40 man with a bunch of guys having already survived not being added to the roster - Andy Burns, Dwight Smith, Chad Jenkins, etc.

the MLB trade rumours 'season in review' crowd has weighed in on the Jays, with 51% suggesting our offseason deserved a B and 31% suggesting it was a C. 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/offseason-in-review-toronto-blue-jays-8.html

And BP has their organizational prospect rankings up, placing us 22nd in a 'tier' ranging from the 18th place Pads to the 23rd place Royals, a tier described as "a big mush of mediocre systems".  They do note that "Toronto could look a lot different a year from now with a healthy Max Pentecost and a stateside Vlad Guerrero, Jr. lurking in the system".

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28774

Looking forward to talking about big leaguers rather than the offseason tomorrow!

The Jays have just announced that Montero and Lake have cleared waivers and been assigned to Buffalo, and they are also reported to have signed LHP Franklin Morales who appeared in 67 games with the Royals last year. So that might fill the 40 man roster now. Could Morales replace Tepera as the 2nd lefty-killer in the bullpen?

Franklin Morales held LHB to an OPS of just .558 last year.  For his career, he held LHB to an OPS of .613.   Could he fit the situational lefty role better than Tepera?

Spanish Twitter is claiming that Morales signed a major-league contract with the Jays, for what that's worth.  But I'm not sure if he might need some days or weeks in the minors or training to get ready for a Jays role.

"....Lake and Montero are both out of options so they can be dropped and outrighted to the minors if they clear waivers....."

So you're suggesting that they don't need to be on the 40-man roster?  Not sure how that rule works.  If they don't need to be on the 40-man roster, then yes, there would still be 2 spots open on the 40-man, even if Morales is added.

They don't need to be on the 40 man as far as I know China - just like Jenkins. 

Morales is a move I like - much preferred to Choate et al.  I was surprised he was unsigned for so long.

You need room on the 40 roster to claim someone, but you don't need to keep them there.

Montero and Lake are out of options, so they cannot be kept on the 40 roster, they have to be on the 25.
They can be outrighted to the minors, as long as they clear waivers, because they don't have the right to refuse an assignment. Once that's done they will be able to declare free agency on subsequent assignments.

We should see a flurry of waiver claims soon.

vs LHB
2015 (MLB): .137/.254/.314, 59 PA, (.746 OPS against RHB)
2014 (AAA): .291/.376/.476, 118 PA, (.629 OPS against RHB)
2013 (AA): .229/.366/.394, 214 PA, (.760 OPS against RHB)
2012 (A+/AA): .327/.444/.535, 197 PA (.654 OPS against RHB)

Those are the slash lines of what left-handed batters did against Ryan Tepera the past four seasons. That right's, "reverse split specialist" Ryan Tepera. His 2015 numbers were due to a completely unsustainable BABIP (.103). His peripherals against them were terrible in that limited sample: 6.20 FIP, 3.68 BB/9, 5.52 K/9, 1.84 HR/9.

Can we please stop this narrative with Tepera that he has reverse splits? It's simply not true, and even the small sample in the Majors last season was incredibly deceiving.

Franklin Morales over Tepera is an absolute no brainer if you want a lefty specialist. That would be a huge upgrade. What happens when Loup comes back is the issue, but if Loup has to miss more time than expected, then I'd much rather have Morales in that role. He's actually meant for it.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
Junior Lake and Jesus Montero clear waivers. #BlueJays reassign both to Buffalo


Montero clearing waivers is not a surprise. He's a DH that hasn't hit at the big league level yet so no AL or NL teams were going to grab him. The Jays likely claimed him knowing he would clear waivers when they put him through again, which was a smart move. Even if they can't fix him, he's worth a shot. Lake is slightly more of a surprise given his age and the fact that he can at least play the OF, but it's late in the year and he doesn't have the typical 4th OF skill set most teams look for so good timing by the Jays to do it when they did. Nice depth to have in Buffalo, and those two still have a tiny bit of upside left.

Any word on Jimenez? I haven't heard anything about him. He's the most likely to get claimed, but hasn't really done enough in the minors to warrant even a back-up role at this point. I think with Houston getting Kratz there is a chance AJJ clears. It's probably 50/50.

The fact that Jimenez was DFA'd (rather than simply placed on waivers) and that it happened a couple days earlier than Montero and Lake suggests that the Jays are probably engaged in trade negotiations for him.  Someone claimed him and now they are negotiating.  I believe they have 10 days, yes? 

"....Can we please stop this narrative with Tepera that he has reverse splits?...."

Fair enough.  But I don't think the stats from 2013 or 2012 need to be given a lot of weight when assessing his role in 2016.  The Jays have been clear that Tepera made adjustments in the off-season and he's a somewhat different pitcher from what he was in the past.  You've also got to answer an obvious question: why was he given a spot in the bullpen?  The Jays were clearly looking for a situational lefty specialist -- they had signed Choate, they had kept Venditte until the last possible minute -- yet they gave the job to Tepera. Why?  (And don't say that it's because the Jays are stupid.)  They clearly think Tepera would be better at that role than Choate or Venditte.  So they believe he has value against LHB.  That's probably from what they saw in him in 2015 and (more importantly) from what they saw in him this spring.

You're probably right that Morales is a better choice than Tepera for that role.  That's what I suggested from the beginning of this discussion, so we're in agreement there.

Further background on Morales:  I was curious why Morales was available to the Jays at this late stage of the spring, and I found some analysis on an Atlanta Braves forum.  Morales had been with the Brewers this spring, he was released on March 28, and the Braves had apparently been thinking of signing him.  Here's what the forum said:

In his cup of coffee with Milwaukee, he made only four appearances this spring. The late arrival to camp may have played a role in pulling the plug so quickly on a reliever who looks to have some promise. Milwaukee may have had their bullpen vacancies filled, and Morales may have been a fallback acquisition, which was apparently unneeded.

Nonetheless, Morales' spring numbers further indicate how dependable he could be for a club. Against left-handed hitters, he held opponents to a minuscule .192 batting average. Atlanta hasn't had a dependable, go-to lefty in quite some time, and a potentially viable option like Morales wouldn't be a harmful or costly acquisition.

"....Montero and Lake are out of options, so they cannot be kept on the 40 roster....  They can be outrighted to the minors, as long as they clear waivers...."

Thanks for this explanation.  So there's still room on the 40-man roster for two more acquisitions.  I hope the Jays find a catcher, at least. And another starter for Buffalo.

It's possible they just asked GIbbons who he liked out of the remaining contenders (Tepera, Venditte, Choate) and he chose Tepera because of familiarity. I'm sure Gibby thinks highly of Tepera as a reliever, he wouldn't have picked him if he didn't, but to choose him specifically because of a reverse split advantage is ignoring the stats available to us. If they said that they chose Tepera because they like him and he had a good spring, then fair enough. He's a fungible relief option anyway and can be optioned down at any time so it's not a big deal. I just don't want Gibbons to throw him out there against a cluster of lefties because of the narrative that the media has run with about his ability to get lefties out. Throwing him out there against righties is probably the safer bet.

Morales is an ideal fit for the Loup replacement role. He can get lefties out and as a former SP can chew up some innings in blow outs as well. That's a much better way to go, IMO.

"....because of the narrative that the media has run with about his ability to get lefties out...."

I doubt very much that Gibbons and Shapiro are influenced by anything that the media says.  They clearly wanted a second reliever for lefty situations.  And they chose Tepera.  Why?  Not because of the media.  Not because a few bloggers have mentioned his "reverse splits."  And not because the Jays are going to use him only against RHB.  And they wouldn't have chosen him if he was worse than Choate and Venditte against LHB. 

Shapiro was chatting with the Jays broadcast crew during the early innings of yesterday's game in Montreal, and he specifically mentioned that the Jays have three potential closers:  Osuna, Storen and Cecil.  So they want Cecil in that late-inning high-leverage set-up role or closer role.  They don't want to waste him against a tough LHB in the middle innings.  But they needed someone else to do that.  They wouldn't use Floyd or Chavez for a single LHB in the middle innings.  They need someone else for that.

I suppose, just speculating wildly here, it's possible that the Jays were already confident of acquiring Morales a few days ago, so they put Tepera on the roster because he would be easy to option down later.  Still, they didn't know for sure that Morales would sign, and they didn't know how soon he would be ready for major-league games, so I doubt that they just put Tepera on the roster purely as a place-holder.

By the way, to my surprise, it seems that Hernandez didn't get an offer from another major-league team, so he seems to have accepted an assignment to Buffalo.  He could be useful for the Jays at some point this season.  I wonder if they will stretch him out as a starter in Buffalo?  Or does he project better in the bullpen at this point?

glad that all these guys are scooting waivers.

Hernandez I'd guess will start in buffalo but would be only bullpen depth for the jays.

Not a huge fan of Morales, even though he was good last year. Did we actually sign him? I wouldn't want to guarantee him a roster spot.

I think all the roles, including closer, are up for grab in the bullpen depending on who does well in the coming weeks.

It seems that they're going to let Gibby do what he wants, short of releasing valuable players under contract and if things don't work out nobody will be able to say they force him to do this or that.
So, as part of keeping it his team, he's kept players from last year in the same role, to preserve the continuity.
Last year, bullpen pitchers took turns in the doghouse and I expect this to continue.

Schultz, Tepera, Delabar had the most inning pitched last year after Loup.
Tepera himself had a low whip, gave only 6 walks, but gave up 8 homerun.

Floyd really wants to start. He's supposed to be the long man. I don't remember the last time Toronto had one of those. Todd Redmond?

Biagini is the mop out pitcher.
Chavez? It seems like he's going to have Hendriks'role. Sort of a revolting development since Chavez cost more and Hendriks was really good at eating up innings.

Cecil, Osuna and Storen could make for a really good 7/8/9 punch out, but I don't believe there will be that many save opportunities for the setup guys. Last year, Osuna picked up is first save after Cecil  had picked his last and nobody outside of Castro picked up more than one saves.

I don't know why Cecil would want to close anyway. He'll get paid to set up.

Last 3yrs vLHP:

Cecil 73.0ip, 1.91fip, 2.14xfip
Loup 71.0ip, 3.07fip, 3.06xfip
Osuna 36.1ip, 3.38fip, 3.66xfip
Storen 77.0ip, 3.48fip, 3.72xfip
Chavez* 196.1ip, 4.03fip, 3.96xfip
Floyd* 44.2ip, 4.34fip, 3.93xfip

(* = most IP as SP)

Schultz 22.1ip, 4.66fip, 4.05xfip (milb 3.90fip, 4.35siera)
Jenkins 32.0ip, 4.21fip, 5.00xfip (milb 4.64fip, 4.76siera)
Tepera 14.2ip, 6.20fip, 5.35xfip (milb 5.20fip, 5.00siera)
Leon 9.0ip, 6.69fip, 5.28xfip (milb 3.86fip, 4.08xfip)
Girodo --------------------------- (milb 1.35fip, 1.43xfip)
Biagini --------------------- (milb 3.39fip, 3.83siera)

Gibby said sometime early this Spring that he sees Chavez as a late inning Reliever with his stuff. I can't see it myself, but Gibby knows his guys better.

I'm not convinced that pythag over and under achievement is a function of the bullpen.

It can be a factor, but that's all. It's certainly not a law. The only things that can create a difference between Pythag and a team's actual record are unusual results in blowouts, close games, or both. And sure, sometimes a team might indeed have an unusual record in close games because of their bullpen. But only sometimes. Much more often there's no apparent connection. Sometimes teams with lousy bullpens have great records in close games, and teams with outstanding bullpens can't win one of them.

Teams with lousy bullpens may actually be more likely to have a terrible record in blowouts, rather than close games. When they're down by five, they summon the dregs of the pen and lose by ten. Which will also distort the Pythag, making the team look worse than it's record which in this case really is a better reflection of the team's true quality. That's probably very unusual, but I know that the Diamondbacks used to do it regularly.

"It seems that they're going to let Gibby do what he wants, short of releasing valuable players under contract and if things don't work out nobody will be able to say they force him to do this or that."


I noticed that as well. Sanchez over Floyd, Osuna over Storen, Carrera/Tepera making the team, etc, seem like decisions that Gibbons endorsed based on familiarity, and the FO obliged. I think that actually makes sense because 2016 is basically an extension of the last two months of 2015, so giving Gibbons some rope as far as who makes the team (to a reasonable degree) based on who was there last year during their big run might be advantageous. It worked out to some degree as well since Lake cleared waivers, Ceciliani had options anyway, and Tepera can easily be optioned if/when they decide to put Morales in his spot. The only moves of any consequence long-term were Sanchez in the rotation and Osuna as the closer, and in the case of Sanchez, that might have been the right call anyway if the alternative was spending the season in the bullpen. Osuna was going to be a reliever all season regardless so whether he was closer or set-up man was really immaterial in the grand scheme of things.

We will probably see the FO put more of their own stamp on the roster in 2017 when the amount of turnover will be drastic, but I think it's actually pretty logical to let Gibbons finish off the roster with his guys when we're talking about the 4th OF and 8th reliever. We just have to hope Carrera does not play that much, and if there is an injury, that he'll remain the back-up while someone like Pompey or Ceciliani get called up and get the bulk of the replacement AB's.

Morales signing official. 1yr/$2m + incentives but apparently non guaranteed somehow.

Tepera optioned to Buffalo.

I don't love Morales. Had a good year last year in low leverage use on a pitching-friendly team. Wasn't very good the couple years before but does have some other good relief years in his past.I think the key here is to convert him to a much stricter loogy role than he's had in the past.

Seems a bit pricey to me but hopefully non-guaranteed means just that.

Morales has some unusual numbers:

- He was almost a different pitcher in 2015. In the past, he had trouble throwing the round thing over the five-sided thing. But last year, both his walks and his strikeouts were way down, which suggests that Kansas City's pitching coach suggested a new approach.

- And it was working for a while - he had a 1.80 ERA in June, an 0.68 ERA in July, and a 1.74 ERA in August. However, he got absolutely clobbered in September - his ERA was 9.72 and the batting average against him was .452. Ouch.

- He does seem like a true LOOGY - lefties had an OPS of .558, and righties had .779.

Since he will be the second lefty out of the pen, he won't be needed for high-leverage situations, so I'm not worried about him. I'd rather see him in there than Ryan Tepera. (Whom I feel a bit sorry for - imagine being told the day before opening day that you're not on the big league club after all!) If he can find his mid-summer form, he'll be quite useful.

Next year we still got Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Sanchez, Hutchison, Chavez and Biagini.
We're losing Cecil and Storen, so, it would make sense for Osuna to remain the closer.

We got a whole year to worry about that.

Today's the day.

Morales has 2 rings in the last 3 years.

They probably decided that the risk with Loup was too high.
It's bad news for Venditte. Tepera is probably the first reliever to be called up should we lose anybody.

Here's why I like the Morales signing:
 
1) He's a better LOOGY than Choate, Venditte or Tepera.  But he can also be kept in the game to tackle another batter or two.  (Unlike Choate who is purely a LOOGY at this point, and unlike Venditte who is very vulnerable to switch-hitters.)  As long as it's a relatively low-leverage situation, he can be given an inning here and there, plus the tough LHBs in middle-inning situations.  Then the Jays won't have to waste Floyd or Chavez in the middle innings, since both could be useful in higher-leverage situations.

2) His salary is non-guaranteed, so the Jays aren't risking much.

3) He gives the Jays a lot more flexibility with regard to Loup, who had problems last year.  If Morales isn't very good in the next few weeks, the Jays can bring back Loup as soon as he is ready.  But if Morales is good, they could give Loup a longer minor-league rehab stint, or even option him to the minors. (Loup still has options left.)   I accept that Loup could still be useful -- his FIP was much better than his ERA last season -- but the fact remains that he allowed LHB to hit an OPS of .704 against him last season.  Morales can probably do better than that, if the Jays want a second LHP in their bullpen, which they do.

The next question is:  who gets demoted from the bullpen when Estrada returns?  It's got to be either Leon or Biagini.  To me, the solution is to negotiate a deal with the Giants to allow Biagini to be sent to the minors.  He shows a lot of promise, but I'm not convinced that he is major-league-ready yet.  It's a bit risky for the Jays to carry him for the whole season when he has zero experience above the AA level.  I watched him pitch on Friday against the Red Sox in the Montreal game, and he didn't look good.  They were hitting him around. He faced 5 hitters and gave up 3 hits.  Sure, it was a meaningless game, but I'm a little concerned about him.  Send a prospect to the Giants and give Biagini a full season in Buffalo and he should be a great option for 2017. 

Of course I could be wrong.   The Jays could decide to put Leon on waivers and hope that nobody takes him.

I was wondering what, if anything, Kevin Pillar had done hitting leadoff in the past. Easy answer - nothing. He's never led off in the majors - he's never even had a plate appearance in the first spot in the order. (Even Josh Thole has 2 such plate appearances!)

Who's got experience leading off? There's one guy who's led off in more than 100 major league games, and he's done very well at the top of the lineup (.264/.356.464). But he's done quite a bit better hitting third (.272/.395/.560), and I imagine that's where he's going to stay.

A little data table for y'all.

Player     ST  PA BAVG  OBP  SLUG

Bautista  103 493 .264 .356  .464
Saunders   42 185 .253 .321  .392
Martin     38 179 .238 .369  .367
Carrera    33 152 .195 .260  .278
Tulowitzki 26 131 .217 .313  .357
Travis     22  93 .202 .272  .357
Barney     16  78 .229 .308  .343
Donaldson   7  32 .276 .313  .586
Pompey      3  14 .455 .571  .545

Goins       0  10 .333 .400  .333
Encarnacion 0   4 .500 .500 2.000
Thole       0   2 .000 .000  .000
Smoak       0   2 .000 .000  .000

Yes, that's 2.000 slugging for Encarnacion - 2-4 and they were both homers.

"....he got absolutely clobbered in September - his ERA was 9.72 and the batting average against him was .452. Ouch...."

I guess that explains why the Royals did not try to sign Morales to another contract at the end of the season.  But for what it's worth, Morales was reportedly pitching well for the Brewers this spring -- certainly he was pitching well against LHB at least -- so let's hope his September performance was an aberration. It was only 4 innings for the Brewers this spring, but apparently he held LHB to a .192 average.

About to get on the highway over to Tampa, getting real excited for this one!

Venditte was better over 8 innings, but they don't seem to like him much.
Morales throws harder and has a better history, being a starter and all.

Opening day lineup has been posted.  Encarnacion is back in the lineup, batting in the clean-up position.

Morales is in the bullpen, which seems very hasty for someone whose signing was announced late last night...  But with all the LHBs in the Rays roster, he could be useful.

The bottom of the lineup (from 6th to 9th) is Colabello, Saunders, Martin and Goins.  Interesting to see Martin at number 8, but maybe means less pressure on him to be a top-performing hitter, allowing him to concentrate more on his catching duties and handling the pitchers.  But it's safe to say that he'd be higher than 8th on a lot of teams, which shows how deep the Jays lineup is.  

Nice to have Smoak available on the bench -- he's a great weapon to be able to throw into the game as a pinch-hitter.  I assume, though, that he'll get a starting lineup spot at some point in this series, maybe even the next game.

Venditte was better over 8 innings, but they don't seem to like him much.

I think it's just that Venditte had an option remaining. If you're in the Jays' organization and you have an option remaining, and you're not lots better than the players who don't have options, it's time to start looking for housing in Buffalo.

This is not a criticism of the Jays: it's good to have a whole lot of sort of okay pitchers available as backups if any of the present bullpen residents get hurt or become ineffective.

I wanted to write this BEFORE the season begins - and there is no new thread up about opening day - and in case we don't get one up in time I'm going to give my 2 bits on 2016 here and now...so there...

We've an offensive monster. Spectacular. We've a defensive monster. Spectacular.

We CAN go all the way to Glory - BUT - it comes down to two guys who have never been there before: Stroman and Sanchez. Young pitchers will break your heart. Will these guys - we just don't know. I can see others not thinking we've the pitching to make it - if these two fail they'll have been proven correct.

Personally - I PREDICT - that either BOTH of them will be who we need them to be and lead us to GLORY - OR - one of them will and Hutchison will return from the minors and pick up the slack. I feel positive TWO of these three will be standing dripping champagne in Oct. Personally, I'll be sipping a wee dram of single malt...

Gentlemen, on to GLORY!

Spring training is meaningless and all that, but I'm certainly not disappointed that we finished with the second best record in Florida, or that all four other AL east teams had losing records.  Let's go Jays!

Projections are great and everything, but they have their limits and it's always good to look at more information. I always like to look at recent actual production to get a different perspective than projections which imo sometimes factor in outdated data too heavily, and sometimes inherently regress extreme good and bad performances too heavily. One year of data is pretty small and easy to look up, so I go with a 2yr sample which I find has served me well in the past.

To keep eyes from completely glazing over I try to hone this down to 3 most relevant stats for each player:

1. plate appearances and innings pitched. as always, the bigger the sample the better, and the numbers for guys with only a partial season worth of pa or ip obviously have to be taken with a healthy dose of salt.
2. wRC+for hitters and ERA- for pitchers. these are imo the best frontline numbers to use to measure "how well they helped score or prevent runs". neither is complete but imo the best numbers to use. remember that the + and - mean these numbers are pegged to league average, with 100 being average, 120 being 20% above avg and 80 being 20% below.
3. WAR pace. WAR helps us factor in defense for hitters and underlying numbers and leverage for pitchers. To give us as much info as possible I use 2 types of WAR for each player. For pitchers I use fipwar and ra9war, both available on fangraphs and both splittable into RP and SP performance. For hitters I use both fangraphs' and baseball reference's WAR. What I do is average both WAR and then pace it out to full seasons to give us a level comparison like era- and fip- pegged to league average. Full seasons I say are 650pa for hitters, 32 starts for SP, and 65ip for RP. Note that these are not projections - they are simply an attempt to turn WAR into a rate stat. Always look at the sample size given to assess the reliability of that rate stat.

Note: Stats for SP are only as SP, stats for RP are only as RP.

Last 2yrs Stats

* = on DL

SP Stroman (25): 24gs, 77era-, 4.9war/32gs
SP Dickey (41): 67gs, 96era-, 2.4war/32gs
SP Happ (33): 57gs, 100era-, 2.6war/32gs
SP Estrada* (32): 46gs, 100era-, 1.9war/32gs
SP Sanchez (23): 11gs, 87era-, 1.9war/32gs
(SP Floyd (33): 9gs, 73era-, 2.3war/32gs)
(SP Chavez (32): 47gs, 103era-, 2.3war/32gs)
(SP Hutch (25): 60gs, 124era-, 1.3war/32gs)

RP Storen (28): 111.1ip, 59era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Osuna (21): 69.2ip, 63era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Cecil (29): 107.2ip, 65era-, 1.5war/65ip
RP Floyd (33): 13.1ip, 68era-, 0.7war/65ip
RP Loup* (28): 111.0ip, 92era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Morales (30): 86.0ip, 88era-, 0.2war/65ip
RP Chavez (32): 27.0ip, 72era-, 0.1war/65ip
(RP Leon (27): 26.2ip, 112era-, -0.1war/65ip)
(RP Biagini (26): ----------------------------------)


1.2B Travis* (25): 238pa, 135wrc+, 6.4war/650pa
2.3B Donaldson (30): 1406pa, 141wrc+, 7.3war/650pa
3.RF Bautista (35): 1339pa, 154wrc+, 5.3war/650pa
4.DH En’con (33): 1166pa, 150wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
5.SS Tulowitzki (31): 909pa, 129wrc+, 5.7war/650pa
6.C Martin (33): 967pa, 127wrc+, 5.8war/650pa
7.1B Colabello (32): 580pa, 120wrc+, -0.2war/650pa
8.LF Saunders (29): 299pa, 117wrc+, 4.6war/650pa
9.CF Pillar (27): 750pa, 93wrc+, 4.8war/650pa

UT Smoak (29): 604pa, 94wrc+, 0.9war/650pa
OF Carrera (29): 265pa, 86wrc+, -0.3war/650pa
IF Goins (28): 621pa, 67wrc+, 1.9war/650pa
C Thole (29): 202pa, 63wrc+, -1.8war/650pa

(OF Pompey (23): 146pa, 88wrc+, 2.5war/650pa)
(OF Ceciliani (26): 75pa, 58wrc+, 4.3war/650pa)
(IF Barney (30): 292pa, 84wrc+, 3.6war/650pa)
(C Sanchez (28): 89pa, 94wrc+, 1.8war/650pa)


Team is kinda good.

my one nitpick with the roster is Carrera. the rest of the question mark bench bats make up for it with fielding value - carrera's the only one that does neither, and it looks like we have a couple other guys who would be better bets for that slot.

other than that - damn this team could be something.

With only two LHHs in the lineup, it would be better to have more separation between them. Saunders, Colabello, Martin and Goins in 6-9 would be fine.

Both Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez have pitched in high pressure situations last year, both Regular Season and Postseason. I have no doubts about their handling of pressure this year, no else should. Both worked together the entire offseason. They will push each other much longer than anyone else would give up, and drive each other to be better, much, much better. They know what they need to do and they know how to do it. Now we'll know how well.

Isn't it time for a new post? Toronto at Tampa Bay?

I'm happy to have the biggest complaints about the Jays as opening day hits to be #8 reliever (I'd rather Venditte too) and #4 outfielder (Carrera seems to be a guy who isn't really good at anything but just OK across the board thus not too good off the bench) with some complaints about #5 starter (2 vets or Sanchez who might be an ace who earned his slot with a strong spring after a strong Sept/Playoffs last year in the pen).

I look forward to the Jays first 100 win team this year and hopefully the 3rd WS win in club history - that'd be a nice send off for Bautista and Encarnacion.

@arturomarcano
Robert Osuna: "this year my focus is only in the bullpen but next year I want to be a starter"

this is spanish espn guy.

Osuna needs to focus on this year now.

Hopefully Gibby spreads the leafties better the rest of the series.