I hope looking it up is okay, and I'll just name the position players who did, so other people can contribute. They are : Frank Menechino (4), Craig Kusick (5), Jeff Mathis (6), and Cliff Pennington (9).

I can only name two... Stro & Josh Towers.

In continuous flow sports, like hockey and football, you need to be able to identify someone quickly so numbers are extremely helpful and thus even become iconic (4, 9, 66, 99 in hockey). In baseball, numbers are just there, taking up space on a dude's back, adding no value. Splat.

I couldn't tell you any player's number ever, except Jesse Barfield I think was 29, which, if this is even accurate, is something I recall because that was the number of my favourite hockey player.

All this is to say that I am always surprised when other people can cite baseball players' numbers so readily. What compels people to learn these numbers? Is it subconscious, or a subject of specific interest to some fans?

Stroman (#6) and Towers (#7) are correct.

They are : Frank Menechino (4), Craig Kusick (5), Jeff Mathis (6), and Cliff Pennington (9).

Those four also did appear on the mound as Blue Jays, so that's six out of nine. There are two position players and one actual professional pitcher type person left who toed the rubber wearing a single digit number. 

(For what it's worth, the Frank Menechino pitching appearance is burned into my memory forever, if only because he was smirking just before he threw every pitch. It was truly hilarious).

All this is to say that I am always surprised when other people can cite baseball players' numbers so readily. What compels people to learn these numbers? Is it subconscious, or a subject of specific interest to some fans?

Interesting question. There does seem to be a wide variance on this amongst both fans and even players. Some players wear a certain number "because that's what they gave me when I made the team" while others wear something that has an explainable significance. For example, I believe Bryce Harper wears 34 because 3 and 4 add up to 7, which as George Costanza could tell you was Mickey Mantle's number.

From a personal standpoint, I have an excellent memory when it comes to remembering jersey numbers (does anyone remember when Jose Bautista wore #23? Doesn't that sound weird?). But to address your question, I'm honestly not sure why this information seems to stick in my mind. It is certainly not through a conscious effort on my part.

Kyle Drabek

I tend to agree with Chuck's point that the uniform numbers are pretty meaningless in baseball.

But given Toronto's cool nickname from Drake, it's neat to see that the Jays ace pitcher is #6.  And it's also cool to see Tulo wearing #2.

At the end of yesterday's televised game, I swear I saw a Jays player wearing #1 on his uniform, but couldn't identify him.  Anyone know?  Must have been a minor-league prospect who isn't on the current roster.  But why isn't #1 a more desired number for a baseball player? You'd think a lot of them would be lobbying for that number.  Or is it considered too immodest?

I know Bob Bailor made a number of appearances one season, (like 3 or 4 games, not just one) wearing the number 1. (IIRC he was 1 as a player, 3 as a coach...)

Gary Carter is 8. It was iconic and became a retired number.

Right, I knew Gary Carter was 8. I was living in Montreal at the time. I think we all knew he was 8 because he was the king of self-promotion (the whole "Kid Carter" thing) and his number factored into that.

And of course Ruth (3), Gehrig (4), Mantle (7) and Jackie Robinson (42) are well known, even to the unobservant likes of me.

But Josh Donaldson? Jose Bautista? RA Dickey? I couldn't begin to guess their numbers.

You're right, Chuck, about remembering numbers for baseball players. The only Blue Jay I can remember is Tony Fernandez's no. 1. I could name two dozen hockey player's numbers easily.

I'd say it just depends on if you like numbers or not. I could tell you it's 20, 19 and 43 without pause, but I pay attention to that.

Gibber made it clear that pompey will start in AAA today.

Surprisingly, though, he criticized his defense.

Bailor and Drabek are correct. Only one (position) player left.

Rick Leach. Didn't need to look that up as I recall him being the last position player to pitch for the Jays for a long stretch.

Rick Leach is correct! Pointless points for all the right answers.

I'm a big numbers nerd, so I am enjoying this thread. :-)

Back in the day, all pitchers had numbers in the 30s and 40s. In Ball Four, Jim Bouton asked for 56 (which he wore because it reminded him of when he barely made the team) and he was considered flakey.

Baseball Reference has a complete list of who has worn what number in Blue Jays history. Lowest numbers are 0 (Al Oliver and Candy Maldonado) and 00 (Jose Canseco and Cliff Johnson). Highest is 88, which was worn by Rene Gonzalez - he wore 88 in Baltimore because Ripken had 8, and stuck with it when he went elsewhere.

#1 currently belongs to Andy Burns, who is a non-roster invitee.

This reminds me of my favourite Blue Jays related trivia question: name the career accomplishment that Sandy Koufax and Rance Mulliniks have in common.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-prospect-pentecost-optimistic-hes-back-on-track/

interesting reading onn pentecost. apparently the rotator cuff surgeries weren't doing much and he still had weird pain - but then the doctor happened to be at a presentation for an entirely different rarer shoulder injury and it turns out that was likely the problem all along, and now he's apparently pain free for the first time thanks to the different surgery.

knock on wood.

he starts throwing back to a pitcher for the first time tommorrow.

".....#1 currently belongs to Andy Burns..."

Thanks, Dave!

If anyone is interested in the anatomy of the shoulder and Pentecost's surgery, here's a description of subacromial impingement that is almost readable from a layperson's perspective. 

Pentecost has a broad enough range of skills that he could adapt to a number of different positions on the diamond.  I am doubtful that the desire for him to continue as a catcher is a good thing.  He needs to work on skills other than throwing. 

Robinzon Diaz is back with the Blue Jays, per BA.

So with Brown and Diaz on board, the Jays are collecting all the players who were traded for Jose Bautista, plus all the players who were reportedly almost traded for Jose Bautista.

March 7 is a big day in Blue Jay birthdays- Joel Carreno, Jeff Kent, Denis Boucher, Mauro Gozzo, Joe Carter, Jeff Burroughs and Galen Cisco share the date.  There have been 20 players with this birthday active during the club's existence and 6 of them have played with the organization. 

Jeff Burroughs had an OPS+ of 152 in over 1200 PAs at age 22-23.  There are 21 players in major league history who have an OPS+ over 150 and 1200 PAs+ in their age 22/23 seasons: Eddie Mathews, Joe D, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Reggie Jackson, Ted Williams, Ken Griffey, Hank Aaron, Mel Ott...The only two who are not in the Hall of Fame or who won't be inducted at the first opportunity (Trout and Cabrera are the active members of the club) are Dick Allen and Jeff Burroughs. 

I always wondered why Diaz didn't get more of a shot as an MLB backup catcher - he never had any power, but his one year as a backup in Pittsburgh, in 2000, was competent for a backup. I always recall he had a good defensive rep.

Good depth move. CyberCavalier will be happy - he suggested this move a few weeks back.

Neil Weinberg has an interesting article on the 2015 Blue Jay offence and their surprisingly few intentional walks.  I agree that one part of the likely explanation is the early lead phenomenon.  Another part of the explanation might be the extreme right-handed tilt of the lineup and the back-to-back-to-back great right-handed hitters.  Teams were less likely to intentionally walk Blue Jay power hitters late in the game for platoon reasons because the core was all right-handed.  Right handed relievers had no reason to walk Donaldson or Bautista intentionally.  Donaldson didn't get an intentional walk all season and Bautista had only 2 all season.  Encarnacion was intentionally walked 5 times, which makes sense, because the club usually held a significantly lesser hitter batting 5th.

With Pompey being very young, having options, and apparently still being a work-in-progress on defense in LF, there's really no reason to force him to the Majors at this point. He will be needed during the season at some point with injury concerns to Saunders, age with Bautista, and for general depth purposes. Let his performance in AAA (or a need in the big leagues) force a promotion.

It's awfully early to make pronouncements of the sort made by Gibbons given Saunders' injury history (and the "rumour" that a trade did not go through because of his health).  What is the downside of waiting to mid-March?  I think that the club had its mind made up before spring training. 

To add to my amateur opinion I caught up with a good friend of mine who happens to be a top orthopedic surgeon at a top hospital and he was adamant that Saunders' meniscus surgery should cause ZERO short term issues whatsoever.

"Let his performance in AAA (or a need in the big leagues) force a promotion."

It already has. Twice.

To add to my amateur opinion I caught up with a good friend of mine who happens to be a top orthopedic surgeon at a top hospital and he was adamant that Saunders' meniscus surgery should cause ZERO short term issues whatsoever.

The surgery ought not to have disabled him for a full season.  But he was disabled for the entire season.  It is hard to know why, and it is good that he seems to be healthy at the start of spring training but projections that he will be fine in the "short-term" (presumably the next 5 years or so) ought to be treated with caution. I'd be more inclined to take that kind of opinion seriously if the orthopod had actually seen the inside of the knee or had access to all the reports.  Presumably the Angels' physician had that information. 

"...It already has. Twice...."

To be fair, your optimistic analysis of Pompey is usually heavily influenced by his minor-league hitting record.  The Jays have made it clear that Pompey's defence needs work.  That's a pretty major issue for an outfielder.  If his routes need work, the best place to improve that is Buffalo, not the major-league bench.  What's your evidence that his defence is major-league-ready?  I don't think there are reliable stats on minor-league defence, and his major-league sample size is clearly too small for the defensive stats to reliably measure, so I'm curious about the basis for your conclusion.  I would think the Jays are using detailed scouting assessments from Pompey's coaches in Toronto, Buffalo, New Hampshire and elsewhere.  I'd be inclined to accept their conclusion, unless you have some evidence that outweighs the Jays own assessment of his defence.

I was thinking about prospects being rushed to the majors.

You never know if they will succeed or not. Some will be so good in the minors that they will force the promotion and others will be promoted because of need.

There was a shortage at the majors so Hutch, Litsch, Osuna and M Castro were rushed.
Sanchez not rushed because he would have had to be protected on the 40 man list after 2014. So the Sept callup was valid IMO.
Same with Pompey.
Norris and Graveman definitely rushed.

Burning options and misuse of a 40 man spot is something that I strongly disagree with.
IMO AA burned and misused that factor. I hope that this FO does not do that.

well china, the scouting reports, the stats, and my super accurate eyetest all say his defense is pretty great. This is the first time I've ever heard anyone say otherwise, tbh.

mike - no doubt no opinion is worth much without seeing the knee but man he was adamant that there should be no short term issues. and we still don't know what medicals the angels had a problem with.

don't really buy the "rushed prospects" thing. Jays have had 3 rookie of the year calibre rookies in the past 2 seasons.

I don't have a problem with deciding right now that Pompey is to start the season in Buffalo. If Saunders is healthy - and he apparently is - he is going to get a full shot in left field. Pillar has centre field locked up, and Bautista is in right. It wouldn't be a good idea to let Pompey waste away on the bench.

I too agree that sending Pompey to Bisons is the right thing to do. The Diaz signing is interesting. It makes me wonder if they don't like Sanchez that much and I assume they are also afraid of losing Jiminez on waivers.

A question: has anyone heard anything current on the status of Soriano. A visa problem normally does not take this long to sort out.

I believe the Atkins/Shapiro regime in Cleveland were slow in promoting prospects. It will be interesting to see if we can see that this year. Over the last two years the Jays became more aggressive in promoting pitchers in particular.

"....the scouting reports, the stats, and my super accurate eyetest..."

Since we're apparently in the realm of vague impressions here (and the "stats" are clearly unreliable from a sample so small), I will add my own vague impression.  Defence was one of the reasons why Pompey was demoted last year.  So this is not the first time we've heard about this issue.

and yet, Pompey was an all defensive all star in lower minors. I am beginning to wonder if there might be an attitude problem here.

That's an interesting point Gerry. Lemme take a quick look....

Shap became GM in 2001.

2001

- Sabathia makes mlb at 20, 0ip in AAA, 90ip in AA.
- Baez makes mlb at 23, 25ip in AAA, 105ip in AA. (Starts career as RP before moving to SP)
- Westbrook makes mlb at 23, 150ip in AAA, 170ip in AA (Starts career as RP before moving to SP)
- Drew makes mlb at 22, 210ip in AAA, 50ip in AA

2002

- Crisp makes MLB at 22, 21pa in AAA, 430pa in AA

2003

- Phillips makes mlb at age 22, 450pa at AAA, 550pa at AA
- Peralta makes mlb at age 21, 258pa at AAA, 538pa at AA
- Davis makes mlb at 23, 0ip at AAA, 59ip at AA
- Traber makes mlb at 23, 60ip at AAA, 150ip at AA
- Martinez makes mlb at 24, 314pa at AAA, 527pa at AA
- Lee makes mlb at 24, 105ip at AAA, 115ip at AA

2004

- Sizemore makes mlb at 21, 473pa at AAA, 559pa at AAA



and i gotta stop there for now.

Pompey's defence in LF was very poor in 2015 (small sample size) but I've only heard great things from his MiLB scouting reports. I wonder if he's just not as comfortable in LF as he is in CF, and they'd rather go with Saunders in LF and let Pompey play CF in AAA.

There's certainly a possibility that at some point in the season Saunders is the LF and Pompey is the CF. You just never know with Pillar.

"I believe the Atkins/Shapiro regime in Cleveland were slow in promoting prospects. It will be interesting to see if we can see that this year. Over the last two years the Jays became more aggressive in promoting pitchers in particular."


I don't think they'll be slow with everyone, but I do think they'll be way more conservative with prospects than AA was. It won't even be close, actually. It wasn't so much whether a prospect was 'ready' or not, but AA never seemed to grasp the concept of options and service time. This regime coming from a small market background will likely be well aware of that and use it to the team's advantage.

That's why the Aaron Sanchez decision intrigues me so much. Starting him in AAA is a no brainer, IMO. Let him prove his command as a SP is for real while simultaneously gaining an additional year of team control. He's no longer needed in the pen with Storen/Cecil/Osuna, and there's enough depth in the rotation to where he's not needed there, either. Starting Pompey, Hutch, and Sanchez in AAA has value from a long-term standpoint as well.

Saunders just hit another HR.

Dickey with 3 scoreless innings (0 H, 1 BB, 0 K).

Lake with his 3rd SB this spring (with Saunders in LF, he's the logical 4th OF).

another dinger for Saunders. very encouraging.

The AA regime was initially conservative in it's promotion of prospects - that changed after AA made the big moves in the winter of 2012 adding significant payroll and giving up significant prospects and then the 2013 team tanked - I think ownership lost confidence in the Beeston/AA team and in the last 2 years correctly sensing that time was running out, the AA regime were very aggressive in promotion prospects with very mixed results.

btw here's what Shapiro drafted in his 15yrs in charge of Cleveland's drafts (career bwar listed - minimum +1war career)

J.Guthrie 18.3 (lost on waivers after only 37ip)
J.Kipnis 16.1
L.Scott 12.1 (traded as prospect)
C.Archer 8.8 (traded as prospect)
K.Kouzmanoff 7.7 (traded after only 61pa)
L.Chisenhall 6.2
C.Allen 5.0
F.Lindor 4.6* (only 21)
T.Sipp 4.6
V.Pestano 4.4
R.Garko 3.6
D.Pomeranz 3.3 (traded as prospect)
J.Tomlin 2.9
A.Laffey 2.5
C.Anderson 2.4
R.Perez 2.4
V.Nuno 2.3 (released as prospect)
J.Lewis 2.3
B.Francisco 2.2
Z.Putnam 1.7
J.Sowers 1.6
K.Crockett 1.2* (only 23)
T.House 1.1


yikes.

Another good outing from Sanchez.  Three innings, three strikeouts, no walks, one run allowed.  He scattered 5 singles but allowed no extra-base hits.  He was reported to be throwing 96 to 98 mph.

If he continues to keep his walks low, I really don't see any need to put him in Buffalo at the start of the season.  Put him in the Toronto rotation.

"It wasn't so much whether a prospect was 'ready' or not, but AA never seemed to grasp the concept of options and service time."

Except, part of this is false. It's fine to have a different philosophy on prospect development, but let's not misrepresent the facts. there were plenty of minor league signings with AA where the key appeal to the FO was options remaining on the player - Schultz, Cola, etc.

There were plenty of situations when a player was kept on the roster because they were out of options (Esmil Rogers and JoJo Reyes come to mind. I didn't say they were good players!)

And just look how frequently the Buffalo shuttle was used - the whole value to the team over the last three years of a Chad Jenkins was that he was optionable.

Yes, the Dyson move was an error.

Let's also not forget that Shapiro's Indian's were rarely competitive. It's a lot easier to let a player 'mature' in the minors when their big league contributions are irrelevant to the standings.

On another note, I concur with Ugly's data - the Clevelands drafting under Shapiro was objectively terrible.

Interesting.  Storen, Cecil and Osuna for the 7th 8th and 9th. 

"Except, part of this is false."


Promoting pitchers from Double-A straight to the Majors, some of whom with very minimal minor league innings under their belt, is not a sign of valuing options/service time (Hutch, Alvarez, Carreno, Dyson, Drabek, etc, off the top of my head). What he did with Osuna and Castro was not valuing options/service time. Calling up Pompey and Norris to start their days of service unnecessarily in 2014 was not valuing options/service time. I could go on.

AA had good qualities....roster management was not one of them. I think you'll see the difference with this group.

as i just showed, Shapiro freely promoted kids at very young ages with little to no high minors experience. even when they hadn't earned it, and even when they needed to be sent down again multiple times.

any lack of same in recent years seems entirely due to an utter lack if drafting any kids worth playing.

as soon as they finally got one again - lindor - they rushed him up to the bigs right quick, even though he had been mediocre at best in AAA, and even though the team was nowhere near winning enough to justify all hands on deck.

Service time considerations may very well play a role in the Pompey decision.  At his point, he has 88 days of service time,  172 days is a service year.  So, it looks like he might be up for a maximum of two and a half months (and maybe less) in 2016 unless injuries require his presence earlier.

Looks like Blue Jays Plus has turned into this:

http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/

expanded Jays coverage under the BP banner?  Sounds good to me!

As I said, I don't think Shapiro/Atkins will go at a snail's pace with every prospect. How they determine a prospect's readiness is entirely a guessing game from our perspective. However, they are far more likely to take options/service time into consideration based on their ideology. For example, Osuna is a free agent after 5 more years. If he spent the first month and half to two months in the minors in 2015, and then got called up mid-season, he would have had six more years of control. Was what he provided in April/May worth one fewer year of control? In addition to losing an option year if god forbid he gets hurt and has to spend time on the DL? Those are the things GM's have to factor.

No GM has acted the same way in every situation, so of course there will be exceptions. However, with AA, it was more of a norm in the way he accelerated prospects, and it wasn't to the benefit of the organization in a lot of those cases. Pompey starting in AAA (if it happens) might be related to defense, but I'm sure some of it has to do with the service time aspect. If you have a veteran like Saunders who (if healthy) can hold the fort for a season, then why change course? Use Pompey's options to your advantage.

"....AA had good qualities....roster management was not one of them..."

I have to share Jerjapan's skepticism about this statement.  Considering the unpredictability of prospects and the extreme difficulty of assessing exactly when a prospect is ready for full-time major-league duty, Anthopoulos did pretty well.  Of the list of prospects that you mentioned, only Dyson was a significant loss.  The rest were meaningless busts (Carreno, Drabek) or are still with the team and still have options (Hutchison) or were traded away and actually had their trade value enhanced by their early promotion to the majors (Alvarez).  When a GM has to juggle hundreds of prospects and their complex service time and option situations, and the GM loses only one significant player (a reliever), it is a pretty darn good record, actually.

In fact, I'm surprised that the Jays haven't lost more players due to the roster crunch that occurs every year on every team.  It's very difficult to know exactly when to promote a player to the majors.  It's always a guess, because you don't know whether a young player is going to adjust quickly to the majors (like Osuna) or whether he is going to be very slow to adjust (like Travis Snider).  How do you predict the future with any certainty?  If you guess wrong, it's not because of "poor roster management" -- it's because the future is unknowable.  If you promote a player too fast, you get criticized for wasting his service time.  But if the Jays had a policy of leaving everyone in the minors until the age of 25 to avoid wasting their service time, they would have had a very poor bullpen last season and probably would never have made the playoffs. 

China, the 'roster crunch' issue you raise is a strong point.  Keeping as many prospects as possible is going to leave you in situations where your 40 man necessitates leaving quality players OFF.  To me, it's always about upgrading the top end of your forty man -  the lower level guys - Nick Wells springs to mind as a C at best prospect we've talked about a lot for some reason - are pretty fungible.  The new FO, seemingly / supposedly much more conservative with young players, left guys like Andy Burns and Dwight Smith off the 40 man this year just to keep slots open.

Quicker promotions avoid this roster crunch, and you pretty quickly get a sense of the difference between a Castro and an Osuna. 

I think about some of the other Toronto teams in this scenario - the Leafs trading a bunch of low level prospects to clear space for the 50 man contract limit, or the Raps waiving Anthony Bennett to open up a roster spot. 

AA's 7yrs of draft

Gomes 8.7 (traded after 111pa)
Pillar 5.9
Goins 4.2
Marsnick 3.5 (traded as prospect)
Stroman 3.2
Loup 3.2
Sanchez 3.2
Syndergaard 2.5 (traded as prospect)
Osuna 1.7
Dyson 1.6 (waived as prospect)
Jenkins 1.4
Graveman 1.3 (traded as prospect)
Desclafani 1.0 (traded as prospect)

Quicker promotions don't avoid this crunch, and instead exacerbate it. A player doesn't have to be put on the 40 man roster until after their fifth professional year from signing a contract (or 4, if they were 19 or older when they signed originally). Miguel Castro wouldn't have needed to be added until after this season if he were allowed to develop in the minors instead of rushing him to the majors. Nick Wells isn't facing a 40-man decision until after the 2018 season. Also, I'm not sure if I'd call a tall, young, projectable lefty with some promise fungible. Extremely likely to never develop into anything, sure, but he's more of the lottery ticket sort than an interchangeable go-nowhere guy.

All the talk about fast promotions misses the fact that one of the quickest ways to turn minor league prospects into contributing major league players is to trade them. And one of the ways to increase the trade value is to promote people and help have their value spike when they over perform in a short sample size. Yes we lost some value by promoting Castro before we needed to. But if we hadn't, would Colorado have accepted the deal where we stole Tulo and offloaded Reyes? Hard to say.

Normally, the conversion ratio on low minors prospects used in trade is pretty high (aside from Barreto). As for Castro's performance spiking his value, I'm not sure an iffy performance by a pitcher with a big fastball but inconsistent offspeed stuff and command really boosted his stock. All it likely did is make it more likely he'll be a bullpen arm, since he really didn't get a lot of time working on the things that would make him a starter, has already burned an option year, and really only has 2 years left to try to solidify himself. By starting the clock early, his value was probably hurt vs performing well at an age-appropriate level while developing his stuff for a possible starter gig. At least that's what I'd guess, anyway. On the other hand, Osuna's trade value is quite high right now. Of course, that has nothing to do with a small sample size mirage - he performed, and kept performing, and showed the tools and skills to indicate he's going to keep on performing. Of course, his value to the Jays is even more than he'd have as a trade chit, so his trade value is hypothetical at this point.

I'll try not to repeat too much of it, but Spifficus hit all the main points perfectly.

You don't avoid a numbers crunch by adding players to the 40-man roster sooner than you have to. That actually makes roster management more difficult as players in that scenario are out of options a lot quicker. Castro was brought up, and he's a great example. He got put on the 40-man roster about two years before he had to, got promoted at age 20 out of A-Ball (it was fair to assume he wasn't ready), bombed as a reliever, got sent down, lost a full year of SP development time pitching out of the pen, and now the Rockies will be facing that numbers crunch in a couple of years if he still hasn't panned out or gets hurt. It's not Toronto's problem anymore, but that doesn't mean it was the right decision. Osuna panning out was incredibly fortunate. I expected both to suffer the fate that only Castro ended up going through, and really the odds were against Osuna. It's a testament to how good he is that he was able to perform at that level so young, but again, was it the right move? He'll be a free agent at age 25 and if all goes according to plan this season he'll have two full seasons of big league service time without starting a single game for the Jays. Not to mention if he struggles and is sent down, or god forbid gets hurt, that numbers crunch that we talked about with Castro will be relevant for Osuna as well.

Determining whether a prospect is ready is difficult, there's no question about that. However, if you use options/roster management effectively, then you mitigate a lot of that risk.

it takes a tremendous rewrite of history to suggest that AA didn't take good advantage of controllable affordable player years.....or that shapiro did a better job of that in Cleveland.

not to mention there is plenty of evidence that trading prospects can be a great way to maximize trade value.

on another note, talking to my ortho surgeon friend gave me an interesting tidbit - one of his colleagues is in stage 2 approval of a method that allows the body to heal ligaments, precluding the need to replace them.

turns out the body does have the ability to heal ligaments, but it just happens that when they tear the body also releases a secondary fluid to stabilize the joint which literally cancels out the healing process.

should be a huge breakthrough.

I'm not in a position to argue about AA vs Shapiro on controllable players - I don't know enough about the Shapiro days to really say. I'm sure AA was more or less normal, generally doing OK, but making a few curious decisions along the way (the Dyson move was a head-scratcher at the time, for sure). Odds are Shapiro looks similar (though looking at your partial list, there definitely appeared to be a trend towards getting them a year in the upper minors before their debut, especially hitting-wise).

As for trading minor leaguers, you're right that trades are a perfectly valid way to get MLB value out of them. I didn't make it clear at all, but I was referring to trading very low-level guys, ones that are either still in short season or with not much time above. Their trade value tends to be severely discounted, and understandably so given the extremely high level of risk involved with them. Considering what you get back I'm often left wondering if deals headlined by those guys are even worth it vs taking the chance and developing them yourself, and trying to swap in a lesser yet closer player if possible. Of course, that's what makes the Donaldson deal even more remarkable - Barreto had a very prominent value in a deal for a star player... It was so out of place to me that it became the exception to 'prove' that 'rule' (it's not actually proof, and not really a rule).

On ligaments, that's astounding news if that becomes viable! I wonder what the recovery time is like, and if the process is non-invasive enough that it can eventually be used as preventative measures during an offseason for partial tears or light damage. That could end up limiting full repairs to acute and severe injuries, which would be a major development indeed.

Ugly, in 2016 if Shapiro puts Connor Greene in the big league pen out of ST, places SRF on the 40-man roster mid-season to pitch one big league inning before being sent back down, and calls up Rowdy Tellez as a September call-up for no reason, I'm assuming you'd be OK with those moves?

I'm a Shapiro/Atkins fan, and I'd be perplexed if any of the above happened.

Again, no one is suggesting that Shapiro/Atkins won't rush prospects in the future, or won't make mistakes here and there. It's the ideology moreso than the individual moves that I am referring to. Can you honestly say that AA had a set plan with anything he did in his time here, especially as it related to prospects and player development?

SK, those hypothetical examples are a little silly.   Let's use real-world examples.  The Jays got huge value from Osuna and Sanchez in the bullpen last season.  If they had failed, you would have denounced them as "rushed."  Since they succeeded, you instead call them "incredibly fortunate" -- which seems like a rather convenient excuse for the failure of your predictions.

Sorry, but the truth is that a major-league club can often get good value from young players who haven't spent quite as much time in the minors as you would prefer.  It's a matter of careful assessment, on an individual basis, rather than some rigid formula which you seem to prefer.  Some players are ready.  Others are not.  Sometimes you can only tell by giving them a chance.  If it doesn't always succeed, it doesn't mean some huge failure by the club, it's just the way things happen.

"....Can you honestly say that AA had a set plan with anything he did...."

A rigid plan would be a terrible sign of a poor GM.  Circumstances change, assessments change, performance changes, and the best projections can be wrong.  So you adjust the plans, constantly.  Anyone who stuck to a "set plan" without adjusting it for the unexpected success or unexpected failure of a young player would be the worst possible GM. 

Tulo is leading off today again, not for the first time either. Doesn't mean everything but imo is a sign that gibbons still wants him there if tulo is comfortable with it.

And a hot take to throw out there....Barney might be the better option to start in Travis' absence than Goins.

"Can you honestly say that AA had a set plan with anything he did in his time here, especially as it related to prospects and player development?"

you betcha!

The plan was clear as day, imo. AA invested heavily in drafting and IFAs, aggressively manipulating the draft and IFA rules to get as much value as he could. His emphasis was especially on young pitching arms, knowing full well they were trade market gold, despite their incredibly high attrition rate. He always intended to cash in on them to acquire legit elite players - players he knew it was incredibly hard to produce in house or attract to Toronto via free agency. He was always looking to find elite upside talent at an affordable price - sometimes it worked out (donaldson bautista edwin) sometimes it didn't (morrow romero reyes).

What the plan clearly never intended to do was to hoard prospects in the faint hopes that somewhere down the line 4 or 5 of them would simultaneously turn into an elite championship core.

Connor Greene drafted in 2013 can be kept off the 40 man until the end of 2017. Most likely he starts in AA and if successful moves to AAA this year.
If he has great success stats wise and the scouts say he looks ready then bring him up and use him. There may be a need because this is a big year for the Jays. If a prospect looks ready then I do not think that he was rushed. If he is needed by the big team but is not ready enough then he was rushed.The big teams needs are a priority.

I thought that Stroman was rushed. I will admit that I was wrong. He looked very good in AA 2013 his 2nd pro year. He also looked v good in AAA 7 starts in 2014. I am sure the big club had a need, so he came up. As a reliever he was OK? but the exposure to ML hitters showed him something. He adjusted very well.

Hutch also was rushed IMO. Probably because the team had a need in 2012. Yes there was a need in 2012. Morrow was very good. Romero started his decline. Alvarez was not bad 31 starts, 187 IP and still a rookie. Everyone else was bad or not good enough.

Thanks, bpoz, Stroman is the other example that I should have mentioned.  If the Jays had followed a rigid "plan" about giving plenty of minor-league experience to their prospects and not doing anything to jeopardize their service time or their options, Stroman would still be in the minors today.

Travis was also "rushed".


...and Ceciliani hits a grand slam. Jays up 5-0 in the first. Tulo's leadoff single got it all started. Friendly reminder that despite all the hot takes, the jays' best offensive month - by a country mile - came while tulo was leading off.

And yeah, spring means nothing, but the jays crushing all comers so far still feels good.

more tidy work from Floyd today. 3 quick innings with 2 Ks. Only blemish a solo HR.

not a huge surprise given he's never really lost any velo through all the injuries, but still nice to hear floyd was touching 95 today.

"SK, those hypothetical examples are a little silly."


Not really. Greene is further along than either Castro or Osuna was at this time last year, and Tellez can easily be rushed through 3 different levels ala Pompey and called up in September when he doesn't need to be. Maybe not the perfect comparisons for Osuna/Castro and Pompey, but you get the idea.

========================================


"The Jays got huge value from Osuna and Sanchez in the bullpen last season. If they had failed, you would have denounced them as "rushed." Since they succeeded, you instead call them "incredibly fortunate" -- which seems like a rather convenient excuse for the failure of your predictions."


Fortunate with Osuna, yes. Sanchez has pitched about as well as I thought he would (meaning good reliever/poor starter). With Sanchez, I believe he needed to be added to the 40-man after 2014, so it wasn't a huge stretch in his case. I just think they should have kept him in AAA in 2015, just like 2016 (unless his performance this Spring is reflective of long-term changes....we will have to wait and see). I don't think either of those suggestions are unreasonable, especially with Osuna.

========================================

"Sorry, but the truth is that a major-league club can often get good value from young players who haven't spent quite as much time in the minors as you would prefer. It's a matter of careful assessment, on an individual basis, rather than some rigid formula which you seem to prefer. Some players are ready. Others are not. Sometimes you can only tell by giving them a chance. If it doesn't always succeed, it doesn't mean some huge failure by the club, it's just the way things happen."


Most people, including Ugly, have agreed that relievers are the most fungible assets in baseball, yet now are commending the previous regime for rushing pitching prospects in order to fill said fungible roles. Why waste valuable resources like options, service time, and further development to fill those roles?

I gave AA a lot of praise for Stroman (aside from the 2 week relief stint) and Travis (who was older/more advanced). Choosing Pillar over Gose was a pretty darn good assessment as well. This is not an exact science and I never claimed it was, but I don't think it's a coincidence that the prospects who have provided so many wins for this team were older, more advanced, and/or given a decent amount of burn at appropriate levels.

Regardless, I don't even disagree with you that a prospect's readiness is subjective. My entire point is that why waste options and service time unnecessarily? Take advantage of those resources while they are available, even it is pisses people off (like Kris Bryant, for example). That extra year of control for Bryant was worth more than any AB they could have given him the first week of 2015.

Floyd: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

Even with the injuries, Floyd has been good every time he's actually pitched, and hasn't lost velocity. If he's healthy (and that's an enormous IF), he's a legit rotation candidate.

Getting to a point where the Jays have too many starters performing well would be a great problem to have. Sanchez was good yesterday as well. It's going to be an interesting month.

"The Jays got huge value from Osuna and Sanchez in the bullpen last season. If they had failed, you would have denounced them as "rushed.""

Osuna & Sanchez both succeeded, and yet they were still rushed. It doesn't need to be a denouncement; it's an acknowledgment that in the absence of $ to spend on MLB players, AA was forced to start burning the service time of 2 guys (4, if you include Castro & Norris) who project as starters because he needed relievers so badly. My primary concern with the process involved there is that I believe the decision was driven by AA's lack of job security, which is never good for the organization's long term interests. It sure worked in the short term, though!

"....Most people, including Ugly, have agreed that relievers are the most fungible assets in baseball...."

I don't think that's quite what people are saying.  Low-leverage relievers might be fungible, but not the elite relievers that a playoff-contending team needs in high-leverage late-inning situations.  Look at how Boston and New York are paying high prices for exactly that commodity.  Those kinds of pitchers are not easily obtainable. That's why a smart GM, like Anthopoulos, is creative about searching for elite relievers wherever they might happen to be.  He doesn't eliminate a pitcher from consideration just because of rigid rules about age or service time or options.

"Most people, including Ugly, have agreed that relievers are the most fungible assets in baseball....""

.. with the ability to get good relief innings out of not-quite-ready young starters a big reason why.

According to Wilner, Marco Estrada's back is not getting better.

"Stroman is the other example that I should have mentioned. If the Jays had followed a rigid "plan" about giving plenty of minor-league experience to their prospects and not doing anything to jeopardize their service time or their options, Stroman would still be in the minors today."

Come on. Stroman was mildly rushed at most. He had had 20 good starts in AA as a 22 YO where he struck out lots of guys and was very hard to hit. He then started the next season in AAA where he had 7 starts again the same story. Lots of Ks and hard to hit. If an organization were conservative, maybe he would have spent another couple of months in AAA but Stroman's path was pretty normal. You really think another organization would have kept him in the minors for another year and a half?

This type of "rigid plan" is something no team does ever and is a complete strawman. The Jays did rush a lot of prospects in the last few years (i.e. Norris, Osuna, and Castro were A ball to majors in no time which is very rare) but don't pretend that the only other option to rushing them is keeping them in the minors much longer than anyone else ever would. There is a good balance that most teams in baseball have found.

"That's why a smart GM, like Anthopoulos, is creative about searching for elite relievers wherever they might happen to be. He doesn't eliminate a pitcher from consideration just because of rigid rules about age or service time or options."


Projections had Osuna having a FIP over 5.00 prior to 2015. So yes, elite relievers do have a ton of value, but it was a bit unreasonable to expect Osuna to become one based on the information we had available at the time. If your counter to that is that the team saw something that the projections didn't, then how does that explain Castro, who had the same down projections and who the team was much more bullish on last spring? If Sanchez turned into an elite reliever in 2015, then I wouldn't have been as surprised. Osuna was a shot in the dark that somehow found the bullseye.

Also, again it's not about 'rigid rules'. It's about utilizing factors that can help extract value short and long-term for the betterment of the organization. I don't think any org, including Shapiro/Atkins, will treat every prospect the same. That's not what I'm arguing. I do expect this regime to value those factors a bit more than the old one, though.

No question Castro upped his value by being in the majors last year for a bit. His first 6 games he didn't allow a run while getting 2 saves. His next 7 games saw 6 IP 6 ER but 2 more saves (while blowing 2 others). All that showed was that he could pitch in the majors but wasn't quite set yet and might need a bit of minor league time but not a lot. That separated him from 99% of A ball prospects who flop before they get close to the majors.

Yeah, it was short term thinking. But without that he wouldn't have been worth much in a trade. He hadn't made any top 100 lists for prospects, was signed as a foreign free agent who wasn't signed at 16 (when the best prospects are signed). He was just a live arm with 8 IP in A+, 170 pro innings total. Those rarely are worth much in a trade. But a 20 year old who has shown he can save games in the majors? With a K per IP? Those are hard to come by, and the Jays had 2 of them last year.

Yeah, it would've been nice to make them both into 200+ IP per year studs but odds were against that for either long term - as I said, 20 year olds with live arms are a dollar a dozen in A ball. Few get to the majors, fewer still succeed to any degree, especially those who didn't sign at 16 or were top draft picks.

I remember AA saying something about how he didn't fear promoting to the majors quickly as if a guy runs out of options then odds are he wasn't going to be great anyways and few get to the majors without going back down thus the service clock is secondary. Yeah, that can make the 40 man tougher but really is it that hard to find 3 or 4 guys you could cut without any pain?

Pitchers will always have more trade value than all but the elite hitters. Elite Hitters, like Donaldson and Tulowitzki are never traded. (That just proves how very good A.A. was.) Sean Nolin, Kendall Graveman, Miguel Castro, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd all had various length appearances at the MLB level, at a time much earlier than expected. They showed they could pitch at that level effectively/successfully. (They weren't quite what the Jays could use just then.) That got them top trade value status, when the time came. Because I can't believe A.A. got so very much for so very little otherwise. Trades are never fairly evaluated until five years later.

"....There is a good balance that most teams in baseball have found...."

I've read your post twice, and I still can't figure out where you stand: are you criticizing the Jays or are you supporting what they've done?  Are you saying that the Jays have not found a good balance, unlike other teams?  Because otherwise you're essentially agreeing with me, and I don't understand your ire.  It's not me, it is SK who is implying that the Jays don't have a good balance in their decisions.

I'm essentially saying that the Jays under Anthopoulos did indeed find a good balance, and Stroman and Osuna are examples of that. They were promoted when they were ready.   I was disagreeing with SK who seems to be saying that the Jays under AA were unbalanced by promoting too aggressively.

"....Projections had Osuna having a FIP over 5.00 prior to 2015.....   Osuna was a shot in the dark that somehow found the bullseye...."

Statistical projections are completely irrelevant when a 20-year-old is being promoted from A ball to the majors.  What projection system in the world can possibly have a model for that situation?  In that situation, you have to abandon statistics and trust the scouts and coaches and their human assessments.  In fact, I think you're grossly exaggerating the role of statistical projections. Baseball executives will always prefer their own evaluation, rather than Pecota or ZIPS or something like that.

The absence of statistical projections certainly doesn't mean Osuna was a "shot in the dark" -- that's an absurd phrase, because it demeans all the scouts and coaches who believed that Osuna was ready.  It certainly wasn't a one-man decision by Anthopoulos and it certainly wasn't a random "shot in the dark."  He would have consulted everyone who watched Osuna during spring training and the previous couple of seasons, and it would have been a collective decision.  To suggest that it was pure luck is trivializing and demeaning the people who evaluated that Osuna was ready.

On another subject:  while Tulo is sometimes batting lead-off this spring, it seems that the Jays are just trying to give him lots of early ABs and it's not a foreshadowing that he could be hitting lead-off in the regular season.  For better or worse, it actually does seem that Kevin Pillar is the frontrunner for the job.  I know most of us will disagree with that.  But there's an interesting discussion of the issue here:  http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/he-puts-the-ball-in-play-toronto-blue-jays-sticking-with-kevin-pillar-at-leadoff-for-now

One of the points in the article:  Jays lead-off hitters had only a .320 OBP last season, while Pillar was only marginally below that, with a .314 OBP.  And the MLB average for all lead-off hitters was only .328.   So I suppose Pillar isn't a huge amount worse than the average, and anyway the Jays didn't need a high OBP from the lead-off hitter to thrive offensively last season.   (Saunders, the other option, has an even lower career OBP than Pillar's 2015 OBP.)

Anyway it seems that we may have to resign ourselves to Pillar in the lead-off slot.  The optimistic scenario is that he continues to improve as a hitter and make the issue moot.

The answer at lead-off is blowin' in the wind - namely - Devon Travis who's OBP in 2015 was a very un-Pillar like .361.

Devon, please get better soon!

"while Tulo is sometimes batting lead-off this spring, it seems that the Jays are just trying to give him lots of early ABs and it's not a foreshadowing that he could be hitting lead-off in the regular season"

what gibby says for public consumption should be taken with lots of salt.....especially when his explanation makes no sense.

there is no reason that A) Tulo needs more AB than anyone else; or B) that hitting leadoff is in any way necessary to increase his number of AB given that i) the order most always gets pulled after the same number of AB and ii) the manager can give him as many games and AB he wants in ST regardless of the order; or C) that after expressing concern for tulo's comfort level that he wouldn't stick him in a spot lower down the order like he'll supposedly have come regular season.

i'd say it's pretty clear that he's hoping that tulo feels comfy up there. there's no other reason to be hitting him there.

My wishful thinking is that Gibby is exposing Tulo again to the leadoff spot, in the hope that he'll express an interest in staying there as oppose to hitting 5th in the lineup. The thought of all those potential RBIs hitting behind 3 studs may still carry a lot of weight to a ballplayer, though.

If Tulo prefers the 5th spot, my choice to leadoff out of the gate would be Russell Martin, and I wouldn't let him sitting 1 every 5 games change my decision. If somebody from the 6 through 9 emerges as an obviously better candidate, be it Pillar, Colabello, or a healthy Travis, I would make the change, but otherwise Russell is my tablesetter and I use the hottest hitter as my leadoff on days Martin rests.

Very contrary. The optimal strategy for getting Pillar out is 70% trash in the dirt. For one thing, that's exactly how every pitcher wants to set the tone in the first inning, right. More importantly, the 2-3-4-5-6 hitters are a serious walk deterrent anyway. I think Pillar stands to benefit from the leadoff spot BABIP-wise more than any other hitter on the team. He says it himself in that Stinson article, kinda. That's the argument for batting him 1: that it will improve his production so much it offsets the suboptimalness of having a not-so-great OBP lead off.

I love it. Fight me.

I don't like Pillar leading off. As it stands now, I think it will most likely be Saunders. I would even prefer Goins to Pillar. Would not use Tulo there if he doesn't like it.

With this club and absent Travis for a prolonged period, I would leadoff Donaldson and follow up with Bautista Tulo Encarnacion Saunders Colabello Martin Pillar and Goins. Split up the LHHs and get the best hitters in the 1, 2 and 4 slots.

If Tulo prefers hitting 5th, then hit him 5th. I'd rather have him hit 1st, but some times players prefer hitting in certain spots, and in those cases it's easier to just put the player in the position he's most comfortable. That's where the human element comes in.

However, Pillar at lead-off just screams bad idea. Travis when healthy is logical, but in the mean time, go with Saunders or Martin if those are the only other choices.

Then again, if you recall I made a post a while back comparing the Royals in 2014/15 to the Jays in the 2015/16. Batting one of your worst OBP options first is just adding to that comparison. Gibbons trying to Ned Yost his way to a title.

Regarding uniform numbers;
I think they should put each players annual salaries on their backs;
like Happ 10.5 - or whatever it was to one decimal million.
Then casual fans could really get into the spirit of the thing.
They could even give Bautista his 35 this year if he accepted it (the uniform).
Regarding rushing prospects; Last year was unusual since AA new all along it was his last hurrah and "his" prospects either swam or were traded.

Another way of looking at the lead-off question is to examine SLG and use it to help decide who should be hitting further down in the lineup, with a greater chance of having runners on base.  Tulo has a .508 career SLG and this surely is a partial explanation for why Gibbons keeps saying that he likes Tulo hitting in the 5th spot in the lineup.  Pillar has a .391 career SLG by comparison.  Saunders at his peak (from 2012 to 2014) had a .423 SLG, including a .450 SLG in 2014, and seems to be enjoying a power surge again this spring, so he might be good in the 6th slot in the lineup.

Is there more info on Estrada's back? I haven't seen anything.

I think they should put each players annual salaries on their backs;

That's a great idea, except what do you do about the ML-minimum guys who'd all have to share the number "0.5075"?

The injury report on Estrada is a bit of a mystery.  Wilner doesn't mention it on his Twitter feed or his daily column last night, so Gerry must have heard him mention something about it on the radio (or webcast).  But if it was confirmed report, you'd think it would be mentioned elsewhere, and it isn't.   And if it was a serious development, you'd think Wilner would have mentioned it on his Twitter feed or his column.  So I'm thinking it's still in the realm of speculation or unconfirmed rumor at this stage.  But it's also true that Estrada is still not scheduled to pitch in a game yet, so it's possible that his recovery is slower than expected.

Friendly reminder:

Games Started in a season, from most to least:

Happ (33): 31, 28, 26, 24, 23, 18, 16, 4, 1
Estrada (32): 28, 23, 21, 18, 7, 1, 1
Chavez (32): 26, 21, 2

I did see the Wilner report on Twitter. Maybe he deleted the tweets. If it is true it should come out today as part of the pre-game press meeting that Gibby holds. If it doesn't come out today then Wilner got it wrong and deleted the tweets.

I saw it from a solid twitter follow @BVHJays, he tweeted about Wilner's radio spot yesterday saying:

"Wilner on the radio expressing a fair bit of concern about Marco Estrada's back. "It's not a good day," Estrada told him this morning."

Apparently, Estrada hurt his back doing a Bruce Lee ab workout. It's very easy to hurt your back when working out, as even the slightest wrong movement or improper form can tweak something. Hard to know how serious it is since there are no reports on it. Obviously the longer he is not starting, the less likely it is he will be ready for the start of the season. At least Chavez can take one spot, with Floyd/Sanchez/Hutchison taking the other, if Estrada has to start on the DL.

Floyd is making a good case for #5 this spring.

Re: Estrada. YouTube 'Dragon Flag'

a meaningless statistical snapshot of the 10 guys being stretched out in spring so far:

SP Stroman 5.0ip, 0bb/5k, 0.80wh, 5.40era
SP Dickey 5.0ip, 1bb/1k, 0.80wh, 1.80era
SP Happ 2.0ip, 0bb/0k, 1.00wh, 0.00era
SP Estrada ---
SP Chavez 4.0ip, 3bb/3k, 1.00wh, 2.25era

SP Sanchez 5.0ip, 0bb/6k, 1.60wh, 3.60era
SP Floyd 5.0ip, 1bb/4k, 0.80wh, 3.60era
SP Hutch 4.0ip, 1bb/3k, 0.75wh, 4.50era
SP Hernandez 4.0ip, 2bb/4k, 1.00wh, 2.25era
SP Penny 3.0ip, 1bb/2k, 1.67wh, 3.00era

Gibby just said they hope Estrada will get into a game next week.

That doesn't mean his back is good or bad, we don't know how up-front the team is, but they are hopeful.

I like Pillar at leadoff. He's obviously got a lot of great hitters ahead of him, so pitchers might be more willing to throw him strikes. OBP might not matter quite as much at leadoff in this lineup, and Pillar's base stealing ability might do well there. Who knows, maybe the motivation to get on base by any means in front of Bautista et al will make Pillar a little more patient.

Travis might be a better option if healthy, but that won't be for a while. Saunders could be good too, though part of me wants his injury-prone body batting somewhere less important.

For the record, with Tulo at leadoff last year, the Jays averaged an incredible 6.6 runs per game, and went 22-4, if my math is correct.

OBP might not matter quite as much at leadoff in this lineup, and Pillar's base stealing ability might do well there.

I'd agree with the exact opposite of that.

"Base stealing ability might not matter quite as much at leadoff in this lineup, and (Not Pillar)'s (high) OBP might do well there."

ugly, I'd argue that correlation does not always imply causation.

Two tweets from Ben Nicholson-Smith a couple hours ago, regarding the Estrada situation:

#BlueJays don't sound concerned about Estrada (back). Timing-wise would make sense to get him in game sooner rather than later

Marco Estrada on track, per John Gibbons. Spring debut possible next week

Run/PA percentage last year, as leadoff hitter, min. 10pa:

Tulo: 19.8% (126pa)
Donaldson: 18.8% (32pa)
Revere: 11.8% (153pa) --- Plyffs: 13.7% (51pa)
Reyes: 11.6% (311pa)
Travis: 10.8% (93pa)
Carrera: 0.0% (17pa)

I recognize that Happ - get to 2 outs, then struggle. get to 2 outs, then struggle. repeat.

The Jays are now saying that Estrada's back is much improved. They hope he will pitch on Tuesday next week.

Spring training be damned, I'll take 7 and 1 anytime. 

Any performances standing out to you guys? I've seen a couple of posters point out Floyd - is it the velocity that's impressing? 

ST results are meaningless for the most part so I don't particularly care for the record, but Floyd staying healthy (for now) and maintaining his velocity is the one thing that stands out to me. If he finds a way to stay healthy and still looks like his old self (velocity, stuff, etc), then he should be the #5 starter. Chavez can be there to back him up. I've been a Floyd fan dating back to his White Sox days, always thought he was underrated, so I'm pulling for him.

SK, at what point do spring training records become not meaningless?  Yes, i advocated for Caleb Grindl winning the 4th OF spot last year based on spring stats, so i see the SSS issues, but surely at some point the 'spring training is meaningless' truism starts to feel trite.  not saying we are there yet - just wondering ...

It seems to me ST is more than a small sample size issue. Players are often working on things. They're literally playing a different ballgame from what will happen in April.

Stats-wise? Spring training is almost always meaningless. It's certainly so in the first half, when regulars are only in the first couple innings, aren't making the bus trips, or are starting slow. Some guys are working on something, etc. Now, if someone shows up and goes 0 for 45 with 32 strikeouts, that might just be something. But by and large, it's too short of time against too inconsistent of quality to differentiate Simon Pond and Caleb Gindl from Osuna or Valencia.

It's like the play money table...

I'm visiting ST for the first time this year. I used to think the stats were mostly meaningless. Having seen it live, I'm ready to whack the 'mostly.' Some players care. Some don't. Some are tinkering. Some face MLB players and some don't. You can still come away with subjective impressions - like, Ryan Goins is surprisingly comfortable hitting deep in the count, Dalier Hinojosa is going to overwhelm righties for Philly, and Saunders is taking huge cuts like he wants to lock that Gabe Gross Trophy down early.

For me, the ST "results" that are the most telling are the health-related ones. This year that mostly means Saunders, who has looked like he's playing without issues so far.

But the performances / stats / win-loss, that stuff is pretty meaningless. It really is the time of year for the "eye test", where you just look for anything new (like Tulo's leg kick) or anything alarming (nothing specific this year). I wish SN1 would be showing these games, it's not like the darts fans would storm corporate headquarters if the show was pre-empted.

jerjapan, I don't think ST stats/records ever become meaningful in the grand scheme of things. That's why most of these "ST competitions" for final roster spots usually come down to things like options or contracts/dollars. The things I would typically watch for in ST are health (Floyd, Saunders), velocity for pitchers trying to make comebacks (Floyd, Soriano), and things like that. The actual performance is essentially meaningless. Guys could be trying new things, not having their timing down yet, not caring since it's just ST, etc.

You do learn some things about minor leaguers in the early days of spring training. Connor Greene will probably do well in Double A this year and be a rotation candidate at some point in 2017. Richard Urena can still play shortstop despite the negative reports- now let's see if he can wrestle the strike zone into submission.

Bautista and Encarnacion have had great springs so far. I like how Bautista channels his inner Easler batting left. ..

Just thinkin'...

Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Happ and one of Floyd or Chavez to START 2016 (with the loser of the Floyd Chavez punch out to go to the pen)

Storen beats out Osuna - and Osuna gets used in a role that sees him get nearly 100 innings.

Sanchez and Hutchison go back to AAA and work on their weaknesses. IF (when) someone goes down in the Show, Chavez or Floyd get the first shot. Thereafter Sanchez or Hutch - whichever has earned it.

In 2017, we have the VERY economical and perhaps VERY good group of: Stroman, Estrada, Sanchez, Hutchison and Osuna all (god willin' an' the river don't rise) looking to man the first five spots in the rotation with Greene and Reid-Foley breathing down their backs. IF - the 2016 rotation NEEDS one of Sanchez or Hutchison as the season unfolds they would be brought up post haste.

IF - Shatkins thought this might be a possibility they could use it as an argument with the Rogers Suits to get the money they need for Bautista and EdWing by showing them how cheap (and potentially effective) the rotation could be for 4 to 6 years. Just thinkin'...

Happ is still there in 2017. Reid-Foley won't be starting that soon.
There's no need for both Bautista and EE to fight over the DH spot.
If you have money you should try to lock Donaldson for an extra year or two, instead.
Hopefully Alford ends up on RF.

What's a Gabe Gross Trophy?

yeah ST I maybe look at a few things - fastball velocity spikes or bouncebacks, power from injured players - but the stats don't mean much. fangraphs did tease out a small correlation between ST strikeout % spikes and regular season performance though I think.

Even April results are highly suspect. The month is full of oddities and trends that can't be maintained.

Yeah, spring training is what you'd get if some Major League players were goofing around in your local house league.

What's a Gabe Gross Trophy?

On closer inspection it should really be renamed the Jose Bautista Award. Which makes sense, come to think of it.

2015 - Jose Bautista, .319/.429/.745 (56 PA)
2014 - Jose Bautista, .375/.455/.786 (66 PA)
2013 - J.P. Arencibia, .439/.477/.902 (44 PA)
2012 - Brett Lawrie, .524/.535/.810 (43 PA)
2011 - Jose Bautista, .400/.426/.700 (68 PA), honorable mentions Aaron Hill and Rajai Davis
2010 - Jose Bautista, .439/.448/.895 (58 PA). One walk and one strikeout. Hey, maybe this one meant something! Honorable mention to Hill again, who had a slightly better slash line in 10 fewer PA.
2009 - Jason Lane, .381/.400/.689 (56 PA), though cases could be made for Travis Snider, Scott Rolen, Russ Adams and Brad Emaus. A truly balanced juggernaut.
2008 - Aaron Hill, .447/.500/.723 (54 PA), narrowly beating out 2006 champ Wayne Lydon
2007 - Reed Johnson, .438/.449/.750 (49 PA), honorable mention Jason Smith
2006 - Wayne Lydon, .405/.511/.514 (45 PA) 5 SB
2005 - Gabe Gross, .392/??/.941 with 8 homers. Can't find any more detailed stats, probably because he broke them.

I agree with the general consensus: spring training games are meaningless. Now that players generally report to camp in shape, the only reasons that it exists are to get starting pitchers in shape for the season and to ensure that an entire continent starts thinking about spring and baseball.

I like watching spring games to learn more about players that I have only heard about.

As for the lineup: I don't think it matters much who leads off. Studies have shown that batting order doesn't make much difference. I'd say that player preference is probably the biggest factor.

I guess the main thing about spring training is that the players get back into the swing of things, get their batting strokes down and tinker with pitches without worrying about the outcome of games, and do all this without getting hurt. Who knows what the first part of last season would have looked like if Saunders and Stroman hadn't suffered those freak injuries.

2006 - Wayne Lydon, .405/.511/.514 (45 PA) 5 SB

Who on earth is Wayne Lydon? Even after looking up his stats on BBref and even though he spent 3 years in the Jays system, I have no memory of the man.

It looks like he never made the majors. If I think really hard, I feel like I vaguely remember him from playing MVP 2005 on my PC in college.

Here are a few of my impressions about the early days of spring training -- all of which are merely impressions, which means that they don't have a lot of statistical data to support them and might be proven wrong by subsequent events:

1)  There is definitely a genuine competition for the 5th spot in the rotation.  The job is not falling into anyone's lap by default.  Four pitchers have a legitimate shot at it.  All have looked good so far.  The competition means that there's legitimate depth for the rotation, which is a great asset for the Jays in an important season.  (It also provides useful replacements in case Loup and Estrada aren't ready for the start of the season.)

2)  Many of the key players are making serious efforts to improve their game by adding new pitches, new mechanics or improved health.  I'm referring to Stroman, Sanchez, Dickey, Tulowitzki, Josh Thole, etc.  They aren't standing still; they are trying to get better.  That's good for team morale and bodes very well for the season.
 
3)  Conner Greene looks like he could be pitching for the Jays by 2017 (if not September 2016).  He is seriously good.

4) Soriano is running out of time to have a serious chance at the bullpen.  The visa problems might not be his fault, but he still hasn't arrived, and it's getting harder to imagine him having enough time to be ready for opening day.

5) There's lots of good depth in the bullpen.  Venditte, Girodo, LeBlanc, Leon, Biagini, Diamond, Penny, Delabar, Tepera, Hernandez....   Most of these guys seem to be pitching well so far, and it's hard to imagine that the Jays can't find a 7th reliever from among them, or even a 6th if necessary.  Caveat: of course they are pitching mostly against minor-leaguers and marginal major-leaguers in the late innings of the spring games.

6) The 4th outfielder job might go to Carrera by default.  Or possibly Lake.  Brown hasn't looked particularly good so far. 

7)  The new strategy of giving lots of rest to Bautista and Encarnacion is an interesting one.  Will it keep them fresher in the regular season?  We will see.

Here's the Fangraph's article that I believe Ugly referenced upthread.  It's pretty math-heavy for a layperson like myself, but it seems in certain situations there might be some value in spring K% and BB%.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/spring-training-stats-that-matter/

"Conclusions:

-Spring K% and BB% actually do mean something and may help identify breakout and bust performers for the upcoming season
-Good and bad springs carry the same level of significance and they should therefore be treated equally
-Spring ERA is completely useless"

This blog post suggests a small correlation between a team's spring record and their regular season. 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/3/27/2905234/do-spring-training-records-matter

Key Quote:  "about 11 percent of a team's talent level is reflected in its spring training record. It's not a very strong relationship, but it does exist...the takeaway here? Don't fret if your favorite team gets slaughtered in spring training ... But better teams are always more likely to win games, and the Grapefruit and Cactus League standings offer us at least cloudy window into the season to come."

Thoughts?

As for 4th OF, I've heard from some sources that Pompey is Buffalo bound no matter what - has this been confirmed?  To me, it's gotta be either Lake or Carrera in that case, if simply for asset management purposes.  They are both out of options, Ceciliani does, and Brown isn't on the 40 man. 

Interesting article in BP Toronto on Cecil and how he was the best reliever in the majors last year. Sad reminder that a healthy Cecil and a Price pitching like Price would have brought us World Series glory.

But with the pitching depth on the team to go with the hitting and remodelled defence, we surely still have a good shot this year....


http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/09/brett-cecils-second-half-magic-and-baseballs-best-curveball/

Carrera spent some time with the Indians, so I'm sure Shapiro/Atkins are familiar with him. Not to mention Gibbons is familiar with him based on last season as well. Maybe that gives him a good chance, but if everyone stays healthy, then I think Lake is probably the front runner for the 4th OF spot. Having a RH bat to platoon with Saunders could be advantageous, and Lake being younger with a hint of actual upside might make him a more reasonable guy to gamble on.

Ceciliani having options left definitely puts him out of the running. Dom Brown will likely end up in Buffalo (unless he has an opt-out). Pompey might still end up on the Jays if something happens to Saunders between now and the start of the season, but if Saunders is healthy, then Pompey is definitely in Buffalo.

Lake being younger with a hint of actual upside

Not being snarky, but what is the basis for this optimism, even as tepid as it is? Others have been similarly bullish on Lake (i.e., not much, but not zero either) and I can't see why.

With Carrera and Lake, I see two replacement level players (at best), so not much to choose from one way or the other. Lake would likely be the better platoon mate for Saunders, though the Jays are once again not likely to see tons of LHP. Saunders' rest requirements may be mandated by his health and any plan to platoon him may not be tenable anyway.

"what do you do about the ML-minimum guys who'd all have to share the number "0.5075""

has to be mx (x was their signing bonus to one decimal million).

then still too many m0.0's - need more ideas.

I don't know how Barreto is doing but Urena is removing some concern.

"Not being snarky, but what is the basis for this optimism, even as tepid as it is? Others have been similarly bullish on Lake (i.e., not much, but not zero either) and I can't see why."


Lake has been described as having good to very good raw tools for a while (good arm, speed, physically strong so maybe some power potential, etc). That doesn't mean he's going to pan out, and chances are he won't, but he's young enough to still have some potential. He falls into the 'boom or bust' category.

But yes, as of today, both are replacement level talents at best. That's why I'd rather take a shot with the guy who has even a glimmer of hope of becoming something better than that. Worst case, you're getting equally fungible 4th OF performance.

But it's not clear how Lake would reach his potential if he's sitting on the Toronto bench most of the time.  The 4th outfielder doesn't get a huge amount of playing time.  If he has a chance to get a lot better, find a way to get him through waivers and into Buffalo.  A veteran like Carrera, who has shown at least a bit of ability to come off the bench and pinch-hit, is probably what the team needs as a bench player.

In a backup, I'd tend towards the more fundamentally sound player - it's rough to watch a reserve player do something to lose the game vs merely not helping to win it. Carerra isn't a paragon of sound play, but Lake is more raw than a steak that still moos.

I disagree completely that the 4th OF won't get a lot of playing time. Players get hurt, need days off, need to be platooned, etc, etc. I'm too lazy to look it up, but if you compiled all the AB's the Jays gave to their non-starting 3 OF's in 2014 and 2015, it's probably pretty extensive.

Now, if you want to argue that you'd rather have Carrera get those AB's than Lake, then that's fine. Like I said, they are probably both replacement level talents, so it likely won't make a huge difference either way. My point is replacement level + some semblance of upside at least makes Lake a bit more appealing of the two of them. When you factor that Saunders has a career 79 wRC+ against LHP, and Lake is at 114 for his career (87 for Carrera), that's another advantage to having Lake around. There's a good chance Saunders is not going to be batting too often against LHP (at least he shouldn't).

Getting to that upside is a lot less likely sitting on the bench most days, and if injury opens up playing time (which is what happened last year), it won't be him getting the playing time, it'll be Pompey. A bench is about two things to me - specific skills (lefty masher, defense, speed, etc) and a performance floor. Lake hints at potential for lefty mashing, but that performance has oscillated, and is babip driven. Carrera brings competent defense and usable speed. Also, I don't know if they're equal players floor-wise. Carrera has played the role of the quintessential replacement player, whereas Lake had a flurry of his value up front, and has been really bad the past two years. It could be sample size, or it could be league-adjustments. That's more uncertainty than I'd want.

Lake had a 1.5 WAR at age 23 and then had a terrible follow-up at age 24 (-0.9 WAR). His age 25 season was a sample of 84 plate appearances so it's hard to put much weight on that. Carrera's been consistently replacement level without the type of peak that Lake had two years ago. So I'd agree that Carrera's floor, which is slightly above replacement at best, is higher. Lake's a bit more unpredictable. I'd disagree with you on Carrera bringing "competent" defense. I haven't seen Lake in the field, but Carrera did not look very good out there, and graded out accordingly. So it comes down to a more reliable replacement level talent vs. a replacement level talent with a bit more uncertainty but also more upside. Neither option is all that appealing, but Carrera's floor isn't strong enough to sway me if I had to pick between the two. If we were talking about a Reed Johnson level OF, then no question I'd go with the safer guy. That's not the case here.

As far as who plays if an injury happens, yes, Pompey will get called up (or at least should) in that scenario, but again, look at the list of players who got reps in the OF the last two seasons. It wasn't just one guy from the minors. It was several, including a DH/1B (Colabello). The 4th OF is going to get PA's. The 5th and 6th probably will as well. It's a long season.

The funny thing is we all know pompey is easily the most deserving of the final OF spot, and the only one of the extras that might actually deserve to start. So we're starting from a spot where we are deliberately not rostering our best players.

Ceciliani might be our best bet otherwise - he looks capable of providing legit elite defense at least, with very good baserunning too.

Carrera and Lake also bring speed, but not legit CF calibre defense, and they're not better enough bats to make up the defense deficit with ceciliani, imo.

But again, if we actually care about fielding the best team we can, we all know pompey should be there. And as for worries about playing time, with both corner OF likely to need a good amount of rest and likely to miss time to injury, that shouldn't be an issue.

And in fact, given the question marks on our 1st base tandem, it's still plausible that our best possible starting lineup features pompey starting in the OF while Bautista and Saunders are thrown into the 1B/DH mix.

Meanwhile Carrera, Ceciliani, and Lake are pretty much the perfect blend of usefulness and upside that you want as AAAA depth.

I was going with "competent" from a replacement standpoint, and still am using the qualified term a bit too loose. "Not horrible" "Won't kill you" and "unlike Colabello" would be better descriptions of what I was going for. Carrera was bad in left, good in right, and tolerable in CF by the numbers. Visually, he's below average but not terrible for me, maybe someone I'd put a 0 to -5 on if I were guessing their UZR/150.

Now, saying that I prefer Carrera for 4th OF doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see Lake on the depth chart - if/when he clears waivers, he'll be potentially useful minor league depth. I just don't think he fits the backup role in the majors. I'm just not wasting the major league roster spot for someone with his current track record.

Of course, if someone like Craig Gentry became available, I'd gladly kick Carrera (or Lake) to the curb. Good defense, speed, and some competence against LHP, all in one package. Man, he would have been a nice signing. I bet he figured LAAoA represented a better opportunity for playing time though, which is important for someone trying to bounce back from a lost year.

I think the 4th OF debate and the debate of who would step in if there happens to be an injury to an OF are two separate debates. I think at this point, Carrera or Lake will be the 4th OF. BUT, if there is an injury to a starting OF, then Carerra or Lake will probably stay as our 4th OF and Pompey will be called up to play everyday.

MLB

Pompey (21-22): 146pa, 7.5bb%/24.0k%, .284babip/.226avg, 8.4spd/.165iso, 88wrc+, +4.1uzr/150, +22.0drs/150
Carrera (24-28): 670pa, 5.8bb%/20.0k%, .323babip/.259avg, 7.1spd/.091iso, 83wrc+, -4.6uzr/150, -8.9drs/150
Lake (23-25): 664pa, 4.7bb%/31.2k%, .328babip/.237avg, 4.6spd/.139iso, 81wrc+, -4.8uzr/150, -14.7drs/150
Ceciliani (25-25): 74pa, 5.3bb%/33.3k%, .310babip/.206avg, 5.0spd/.074iso, 58wrc+, +37.6uzr/150, +62.6drs/150

AAA

Ceciliani (25-25): 254pa, 8.3bb%/18.9k%, .400babip/.345avg, 8.4spd/.236iso, 157wrc+
Lake (23-25): 551pa, 10.3bb%/22.0k%, .368babip/.297avg, 5.3spd/.144iso, 120wrc+
Pompey (21-22): 351pa, 11.1bb%/14.5k%, .350babip/.297avg, 7.2spd/.075iso, 118wrc+
Carrera (23-28): 2332pa, 8.3bb%/15.1k%, .331babip/.283avg, 7.4spd/.095iso, 104wrc+

AA

Pompey (21-22): 275pa, 9.1bb%/14.9k%, .361babip/.325avg, 7.3spd/.187iso, 158wrc+
Carrera (22-22): 405pa, 14.6bb%/15.3k%, .407babip/.337avg, 6.7spd/.079iso, 149wrc+
Lake (21-22): 710pa, 6.8bb%/23.2k%, .336babip/.268avg, 6.7spd/.145iso, 105wrc+
Ceciliani (23-24): 891pa, 5.7bb%/21.8k%, .346babip/.278avg, 7.3spd/.114iso, 98wrc+


I'd say it's pretty clear that Pompey is easily the best option.

The rest are pretty close but with this team I'd probably lean towards the guy who can play a good CF defensively in Ceciliani. He gives you a chance to rest Pillar and be a late inning defense replacement regularly.

Today's lineup is pretty much the starting lineup, minus Edwin. The only non starter in the lineup in Edwin's place is Ceciliani in RF (Joey is DH).

Maybe an indicator, maybe not.

I keep forgetting about Ceciliani. He'd work, if they think his hitting can survive the bench time.

I'd take Ceciliani over Lake and Carrera for 4th OF as well. Seems to have more of the 4th OF skill set (speed, defense, and possibly a bat that won't be terrible). Since he has options left though, unlike the other two, he's probably not legitimately in the running. Wouldn't surprise me if Pompey is in LF and Ceciliani is the 4th OF in 2017, though.

Seems to have more of the 4th OF skill set (speed, defense, and possibly a bat that won't be terrible)

A preferable 4th OF, in my mind, to Lake and Carrera. The speed/defense is something you can disproportionately leverage by pinch-running him late in the game and then leaving him in for defense. And it gives you a CF.

"...The funny thing is we all know pompey is easily the most deserving of the final OF spot, and the only one of the extras that might actually deserve to start. So we're starting from a spot where we are deliberately not rostering our best players...."

Again, you're ignoring all the evidence that Pompey doesn't play good enough defence for the majors yet, and that he won't get better if he's sitting on the bench this season.  His inadequate defence was one of the main reasons why he was demoted all the way to New Hampshire last season. 

Your argument is that the Jays are deliberately being irrational.  I suppose that's faintly possible, but I don't see any reason why they would deliberately shoot themselves in the foot -- if Pompey is ready.  A much more likely explanation is that all of the Jays coaches and scouts have concluded that he needs more work on his defence.  And I agree.  His defence in the majors last year was poor and still needs work.

I understand that you love Pompey, but please don't make it seem that everyone agrees with you. 

The Jays have certainly suggested that a significant part of the reason for Pompey going down is that it is better for him developmentally to be in the minors playing every day than to be a 4th outfielder. Service time plays a role too obviously. 

The only point that I'd make is that Pompey spend a long time down in the minors last year.  The Jays' approach to him predates Shapiro/Atkins.  Personally, I think that Gibbons' view of him explains the organization's overall approach to his development after his struggle in early May of last year.  It does not make that much of a difference if Saunders is healthy and performing as he can, at his best.

Public service announcement, Goose Gossage has requested that everyone get off his lawn.

"Again, you're ignoring all the evidence that Pompey doesn't play good enough defence for the majors yet, and that he won't get better if he's sitting on the bench this season. His inadequate defence was one of the main reasons why he was demoted all the way to New Hampshire last season. "

1. there is no such evidence
2. his demotions were clearly due to his struggles at the plate.

Had the game on in the background today - I'm no expert but:

- Hutch was unimpressive - surprised if he makes the opening day roster
- Celiliani looks like he could steal the 4th outfielder spot
- Hope Brown & Tellez can shorten their swings.
- David Adams used to be an interesting Yankess prospect, injuries derailed him but I liked that signing and he looked good today.
- Michael Saunders made a horrendous throw (error).

Regarding Pompey - the Jays brass through the media have been sending out the message that Pompey's defence is poor and that they are disappointed with the development of that aspect of his game.

Another interesting excerpt on the potential value of spring training stats and results, by Michael Summers, professor of management at Pepperdine, in the American Journal of management. 

CONCLUSIONS  both a team’s winning percentage and individual players’ batting averages are highly correlated with their performance in the previous year. Performance in spring training games is not as strongly correlated, especially when using small samples from one year at a time. However, preseason performance over a five-year period is significantly related to regular season performance, both for teams and for players, even when combined with the previous year’s performance in a multiple regression model. Spring training performance measures can significantly contribute to the decisions made by owners, managers, players, fans, and fantasy league players.

"....there is no such evidence...  his demotions were clearly due to his struggles at the plate...."

Denying and denying isn't much of an argument.  Want evidence?  Here's some.  The Jays in 2016 have repeatedly stated that Pompey needs to work on his defence.  So if his defence is inadequate in 2016, it was obviously inadequate in 2015.  Unless you think that his defence was great in 2015 but somehow mysteriously deteriorated during the off-season.

Without bothering to do a proper search for comments on Pompey's defence, let me just cite one article from yesterday's National Post: 

"...Pompey broke camp last year with the big club, one of a half-dozen rookies who were with the Blue Jays in the spring, but it did not go well. He was hitting just .193 when he was sent to AAA, and playing terrible defence, and the funk continued such that he eventually ended up in AA...."

Now I suppose this could be purely one man's opinion, but it's much more likely that the National Post is reporting what the Jays have been saying.  The Post is reporting that his defence was "terrible" last season because lots of people, including Jays people, were saying it.

Want more evidence?  Despite being promoted back to the Jays in early September last year, the Jays rarely used Pompey on defence.  They used him as a pinch-runner. He was given only 2 plate appearances until the Jays had clinched the division.  Same thing in the entire post-season:  1 plate appearance.  If his defence was better than Rivera (not a great defender), he would presumably have come into the games in September or October as a defensive replacement.  It rarely happened.  (I'm using plate-appearances as a proxy for defensive innings, since the former is easier to find in the statistics, and since the PA measure is a way of excluding his pinch-running appearances.)

It's perplexing for me that somebody who watched the 2015 Blue Jays would suggest Dalton Pompey is "easily the most deserving of the job"; my eyes saw somebody who at this point is still nothing more than a pinch runner.

Michael Saunders made a horrendous throw (error).

I had a chuckle over his throw. It wasn't a bad one to 3B (a few feet wide), but the base was vacated. It looks like Donaldson was backpeddling to line up as a second relay to home, and was late getting back to third.

There is simply no question the Jays had/have doubts about Pompey's defense. Pompey and Pillar were playing every day in the same OF and Pompey was starting all of them in CF, and one day he was sent to LF and Pillar moved into CF. That didn't happen because Pillar was playing great CF defense (he had started one game vs. LHP there) - it happened out of a distrust of Pompey's. I remember there were questions about Pompey's confidence early in the season and Gibby being surprised about some comments he made to the media, and Dalton being sent down shortly thereafter.

My eyes saw something completely different.  Pompey looked tentative in centerfield on balls hit to left-centerfield, especially the last week he was here.  He had Pillar one day, Valencia another, Tolleson another and looked out of sorts.  But if I look at the totality of his major league work to date, I saw an excellent fielder (probably better than Pillar in the long run) and a hitter with some pluses and minuses. 

It's all about confidence, in my view.  It won't help his confidence to be a 4th outfielder though, so it is hard for me to get worked up about the team's decision.  I do think that it was made prematurely.  They ought to have waited until at least next week to see how Saunders holds up. 

Pompey made a couple of mistakes out there, mostly after switching to left. Pillar was definitely promoted to CF by earning it, though - his catch of the year came as a LF after all, and he was making great plays all up and down that left field line. When dalton's lack of hitting forced them to start sitting him out and consider demoting him, it was easy to slide Pillar in there, who was hitting and defending at a starting level.

But letting a couple of flyballs drop was not why Pompey was demoted last year - he was demoted for his struggles at the plate. And his continued struggles in AAA sent him down to AA.

If they want to use the defense story to cover for service time shenanigans this year, that's fine.

But even if you think pompey wasn't good in his limited stint in only last year, the numbers still bear out that he was better than his current competition - and that doesn't even diffrentiate between the guy who struggled in april and the entirely diffeent player that came up in september. And of course focussing on one month is no way to evaluate players anyways.

"Want more evidence? Despite being promoted back to the Jays in early September last year, the Jays rarely used Pompey on defence. They used him as a pinch-runner. He was given only 2 plate appearances until the Jays had clinched the division. Same thing in the entire post-season: 1 plate appearance. If his defence was better than Rivera (not a great defender), he would presumably have come into the games in September or October as a defensive replacement. It rarely happened. (I'm using plate-appearances as a proxy for defensive innings, since the former is easier to find in the statistics, and since the PA measure is a way of excluding his pinch-running appearances.)"

This decision may well have cost the Jays a world series last year, given how great pompey was playing at 3 levels Fter his demotion to AA, and given hoe terrawful revere was in the playoffs.

Someone's cherry-picking small sample size talking about Ben Revere. To be accurate:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA201510230.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reverbe01&t=b&post=1

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml

Pompey struggled in MLB, but made the cardinal sin of telling the Press he was overwhelmed. Without that, I don't think he gets set down. After that, there's no way he stays. Failing badly in AAA upon being sent down, ended any chance of his return. If that continues beyond last season; that remains to be seen. Right now he must consistently hit extremely well, defend extremely well and show he belongs up here. He must totally change the Public's perception of him. That might not be possible, but he's too good an asset to not give every chance to.

The only thing the numbers say is that he's played 216.1 innings in the OF last year. Well, and that some plays were made, and others weren't. In terms of telling you the quality of that defense, he's about 2 years and 4 months short of data. Even if it looks like it's confirming scouting reports from his minor league days, it's still confirmation bias, and the only real info of value is still the scouting report (which usually has "if he progresses" as a baked in assumption). In that case, the more recent scouting reports - by the manager, his people, and the front office - has to be taken into account as well. That info seemed to indicate that his defensive performance had slipped. The inference from their comments is that it stemmed from confidence issues, but who knows for sure.

I will add, though, that you're right - it was his bat that got him demoted. His glove just wasn't doing what it would have needed to in order to save him at the time in the eyes of the team.

Let's hope Pompey takes the step forward that Pillar took in 2015 after creeping into Gibby's doghouse in 2014, and that Pillar's super defense is sustainable. Whether or not Dalton breaks camp with the team as the 4th OF, you have to assume there's going to be plenty of PA for him over the course of the 2016 season.

Why do we have a 4th Outfielder?
1) To give the other Outfielders the occasional day off;
2) To pitch hit or pinch run, if ever necessary;
3) In case of injury, DL time, to play the position until the #1 replacement arrives.
If a 4th Outfielder gets more than 150 PA, I'd be very surprised.

I can't take any comments from Gibby about defense seriously after putting Cola out there.

Gotta say this negative stuff about Pompey's defense seems bizarre to me. All statistical measures for him for 2015 screamed Great CF. A UZR/150 in CF of 29.7. His LF numbers were poor with a -51.6 in LF so that might be what people are harping on. But that was in an extremely small sample (49 1/3 innings) after a 25.4 the year before in LF in 63 innings. Rdrs/yr (BR's fielding stat) has him at +36 last year in CF, +24 in LF. Pillar was a +14 in CF for comparison.

I could see the Jays wanting him to work on his LF work in the minors as he only had 43 games lifetime in LF of which 29 were last year in the minors.

As to the playoffs/September, remember the Jays were in a pennant race, you don't mix in rookies during that unless desperate. Pompey showed great value as a pinch runner so Gibbons, logically, saved him for that role where he could add a run rather than waste him as a defensive replacement in LF where he'd likely have little or no value. He was in 11 games in September, a lot for a call-up, pinch ran 7 of those games, in CF the other 4 times to give Pillar a much needed rest. He hit 455/500/636 in the 12 PA he got so he didn't blow it when given a shot. Plus he was 1-1 in the playoffs while getting into 5 games and doing some amazing stuff on the bases.

I think the Jays must look at him as a future leadoff hitter with great speed/defense. I'd let him start in AAA then call him up when (I don't see it as an if) Sanders gets hurt and I suspect once he gets another shot at an everyday role that'll be it just like with Pillar last year.

Something I'd like to point out for the naysayers regarding Pompey's D - Baseball America named him the best defensive outfielder in the Blue Jays system in 2014.

...and the year prior, Pompey won a Gold Glove while in Lansing as one of the three best defensive outfielders in the minor leagues (not just in the Midwest League).

Hopefully we get some answers this year regarding D Pompey.

The OF of Bautista, Pillar and Saunders has to play. Saunders may not have earned his job based on last years results but he is being paid well enough to play rather than sit if healthy.

There will be opportunity for someone else to play the OF over a full season.If he is really good then the Jays have a nice situation.

Scottt's comment about Cola's OF D is very wise IMO.

The OF construction of the AAA and AA teams may tell us a lot about how this FO develops prospects.

Pompey, Smith Jr and R Fields are prospects that should probably be playing in AAA. However we have Lake etc... to be placed somewhere, most probably AAA.

if i were to guess they sound a little upset that he's been a little lackadaisical out there to start camp.

The idea that Pompey's defense is poor or terrible (depending on reports) doesn't pass the basic eye test. He might not be working hard enough on it for management's liking but he's not a poor defender.

Team's create all sorts of "issues" about a player to justify sending them down when they have business reasons for doing so (last year the Cubs said they wanted Bryant to work on his defense when everyone knew it was a service time issue). I think you just need to recognize that for whatever reason the team decided over the winter that Pompery was going to be sent down. I am genuinely not being critical when I say this (because in my view they get to run the business side of things how they want), but I think everyone should be highly skeptical of anything this regime says that doesn't make sense but a more logical business reason applies.

Sorry, my last sentence could more easily have been said by watch what this regime does not what it says. The budget is the most obvious example.

Interestingly, the budget approach looks even worse now that all the Canadian teams will miss the playoffs and Rogers suddenly has a ratings problem in April and May that it doesn't normally have. This might explain the sudden interest in Jay Bruce.

I don't know whether Pompey has any attitude issues, but his problem is simple: the Jays already have three starting outfielders, given that Saunders appears to be healthy. They aren't going to bump Saunders, Pillar, or Bautista to make room for Pompey, and they're not going to leave him on the bench to rot.

Pompey's minor league progression reminds me a lot of Vernon Wells. When Wells was 20, he shot through class A, AA, and AAA and made a brief stop in the majors. When he was 21, he hit a harsh speed bump, batting .245 in Syracuse. He didn't make the majors as a starter until late in his age 22 season.

Pompey is a year behind Wells, but his progression is the same: through three levels of the minors and into the majors, and hitting a speed bump the next year. If he had been progressing more normally, this would be his AAA year. I don't know how good he will become, but he's right on schedule.

the ageless loogy Randy Choate is now a jay.

probably not great news for loup's elbow.

that wells comp makes sense progression wise despite the different skillsets.

Ben Nicholson-Smith ‏@bnicholsonsmith
Marcus Stroman today: 4 innings, 4K, 0BB, 0 R, 2H. Fastball 91-94 #BlueJays

Just to clarify what I've been trying to say about Pompey:  I didn't mean to imply that he is a "poor" defender;  I'm just saying that his defence needs to improve.  (The quote from the National Post was exaggerated, but I quoted it to indicate the issue, not to take it literally.)  Pompey has obviously been a generally excellent defender in the minors.  Now he just needs to make the final little leap to being an excellent defender in the majors.  The Jays want him to be a consistently above-average defender in the majors, so that he can play CF when necessary. or maybe even become a full-time CF soon, but he's not quite there yet, and the improvement will come from full-time play in Buffalo, rather than a bench role in Toronto.  It's quite possible that he has problems of concentration or focus, and gets a little lackadaisical out there.  Maybe that's why the Jays have been publicly saying that he needs to improve his defence -- so that he gets the message and realizes that he needs to buckle down and concentrate.  By the way, Gibbons reportedly said it publicly again this morning:  Pompey needs to improve his defence.  I just don't think they would be repeating this message so often, and so deliberately, unless they feel that Pompey has work to do.

the ageless loogy Randy Choate is now a jay.
probably not great news for loup's elbow.

Or the Jays' bullpen. I have no love in my heart for a true LOOGY. Too expensive to carry a guy for whom full time usage amounts to 6 or 7 innings a month.

Even as a LOOGY, Choate has declined a lot.  In his career, he has held LHB to a .550 OPS.  If he could continue that success, he'd be useful to the Jays.  But last year, lefties hit a much better .695 OPS against him.  By comparison, Pat Venditte held lefties to a .447 OPS last year.  I'd guess that Choate is just insurance in case others fail.

Stro's gonna win a Cy this year.

A few stray observations from watching most of today's game on TV:

1) Andy Burns had another good game, and is having a great spring, both offensively and defensively.  He was playing in LF today, and the Jays broadcasters were suggesting that he could have a career as a super-utility guy.  (They even uttered the name Zobrist in the same sentence.)  He's still just 25.  He played 8 games in the outfield for Buffalo last year, which seems to confirm that the Jays want him to have the ability to play outfield and infield.  It's interesting to compare his minor-league hitting numbers to those of Ryan Goins.  His hitting numbers are similar to Goins, but a year ahead of him at the same levels.  Of course he's not as good as Goins at shortstop, but he might be able to follow a similar career path.

2)  Domonic Brown looks a little lost out there.  Some bad swings and bad ABs today.  You can see why the Phillies gave up on him.  But it's still early yet, let's see how the rest of the spring goes.

3)  A.J. Jimenez is getting a fair amount of playing time and his hitting looks decent.  He looks like he's finally rebounding to where he should be, after missing all that time due to injuries.  As someone noted here earlier in the week, he still has a shot at a major-league career.  Being out of options, there's no guarantee that the Jays will be able to keep him, however.

4) Despite giving up a home run today, Joe Biagini seems to have major-league stuff.  He was hitting 95 mph with movement on his fastball.  I don't know if he'll make the team, but he's definitely got a shot at it.  Kudos to the Jays scouts for seeing his potential as a Rule 5 selection.

5) As everyone has noticed: Stroman is going to have a great season.

Evidence seemingly continues to mount that spring training results DO matter in certain contexts. Owen Watson at Fangraphs notes that "teams on the extreme ends of the spectrum are the ones we should pay most attention to during the later parts of spring training" - which looks applicable to the Jays with their 9 and 1 record.

This economist article from last year points out that 'there are few areas where the consensus among quantitative baseball researchers is stronger than the truism that “spring training stats don’t matter' but goes on to nail the issue:

Yet in spite of all these caveats, the claim that spring-training numbers are useless is wrong. Not a little bit wrong, not debatably wrong—demonstrably and conclusively wrong. To be sure, the figures are noisy. But they still contain a signal.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/03/baseball-statistics

would anyone who upthread posted that spring training stats are irrelevant care to address this?  I'm just not statistically inclined enough to weigh in with any conviction. 

I remembering reading something last year (and maybe posted above) about certain Spring Training stats not being totally meaningless (K/BB being one). I also remember reading something about ST stats being as meaningful as April stats, so when you combine ST stats + the beginning of the season (when you get into the season) certain stats start to be a little more meaningful.

I think it's important to not treat all stats equal when talking about ST stats, or any sample. Some stats become realiable after 60PA, others take 1000+ PA.

.."He was hitting 95 mph ..."
I think the radar guns are hot or something.
So many bumped up speed sightings this spring;
Sanchez,
Chavez,
Greene,
one other I'm forgetting, was it Huch ?
Either that or Jays are going to cream everyone this year.

For fun....
CA: Russell Martin 833 OPS, 667 Slg is higher than any other catchers OPS for the Jays so far but all he has done is go 1 for 6 with a home run.

IF: 5 with an OPS over 1000 - Tulo, Donaldson, Barney (???), David Adams (NRI), Goins. Meanwhile Izturis was 0-2 in his brief comeback attempt, and Jon Berti is 0-6 so far.

OF: Saunders is on fire 385/429/1077 - 1505 OPS, but just 14 PA. Roemon Fields and Darrell Cecilani are also over 1000. Carrera is just 1 for 11 (ouch) while Alford is only 1 for 9 but with 3 walks.

1B/DH: Smoak is 417/500/1083 1583 OPS even better than Saunders. Dwight Smith is 0-1 but scored twice - neat trick.

Pitchers: Wil Browning a NRI has 6 K's, 0 BB in 2 IP but gave up 3 hits and 2 runs. Ben Rowan gets the 'thanks but no thanks' award for 6 ER while facing just 11 batters. Ouch. 6 LH relievers used, none have given up a run yet (11 1/3 IP total between them).

"would anyone who upthread posted that spring training stats are irrelevant care to address this? I'm just not statistically inclined enough to weigh in with any conviction."

Spring stats are marginally predictive for specific and extreme cases. It's certainly not predictive enough to be looking closely at stats. Watson is hardly enthusiastic in his support for any spring numbers. Using phrases like "might" be indicative and "might hold true" in the best case scenarios. Jays fans only have to look back at 2012 where the team had an incredible 24-7 spring record and then won 73 games in the regular season. The best record in spring last year was Oakland who had the worst record in the AL.

There may be stats that are somewhat useful in certain cases (K/BB ratio for pitchers for example MIGHT show something) but when 98% of the stats are meaningless for 98% of the players, it's generally a pretty pointless exercise looking at spring stats. If you look at players with more than 15 ABs, I think around 3 or 4 of the top 15 hitters by OPS this spring even have full time jobs. Andy Burns has been great this spring but he's a 25 YO who hasn't hit well above A ball. While spring training might have some marginally indicative stats, the inability to hit well in the minors has a massive correlation to not being able to hit in the majors. It's better if your team isn't awful but generally, getting through spring healthy is the most important thing you can do.

watching Jays in 30 and a nice surprise is that Urena looks pretty quick and slick at SS.

Also I'd say Biagini is nearing lock status to start the year with the team.

The way I see it, the bar is pretty low for the last guy in the pen. I hope it works out.

Choate is now 40 and projects to an ERA+ of 100, which is not enough for a LOOGY.
Against Choate, you can try pulling an all-star for a scrub to get a huge advantage.
I would hate to see him in the pen.

Speaking of the pen, what's the latest on Rafael Soriano ? Is he going to make it to spring training at all ?

We can be a bit cavalier about the word 'meaningless' sometimes, I guess.

You might want your players to think you think spring games are meaningless. The entrenched ones, anyway...

A few comments from yesterday's game.

I certainly didn't think Bagnini was a "lock" to make the team watching the two-out-in-the-ninth pitch sail over the centerfield fence.

One of the hits credited against Stroman was a generous call to the fielder and hitter. Normally that's a hometown error. Miero doesn't play a strong short and I don't think he can fill that role in Syracuse.

The Sox are going to have a difficult decision with Shaw, who may be better than both Sandoval and 'Lonnie' Ramirez.

The Sox team that Stroman ate up included one player who is likely to start, Betts. I suspect that's why Stro got the start against them. If the game had been played in Fort Myers, with regulars starting, Stro may have been held back to work a simulated game, like Price was on his turn when the Sox were in Tampa.

At this point, and it is still early, I think Hutch will be given the 5th starter spot, with Sanchez and Chavez in the pen. I think with Gibbons we can expect an 8 man pen (barring an FO decision otherwise), Loup on the DL to open the season, that will look like Osuna, Cecil, Storen, Sanchez, Chavez, Venditte, Floyd, and one other, maybe Shultz. The Buffalo rotation will be a mess, particularly if Penny exits.

I'm a bit surprised that Goins isn't in the leadoff mix ahead of Pillar.

Josh Thole's batting stance looks weird, with his bat starting in front of his body then being pulled back. It looks like he's batting backwards. Easy to see why it's not a stance hitters use.

Yesterday's game with the Sox may have been the Jays first sellout of the spring. Toronto continues to have poor attendance at spring training.

Trump puts ketchup on his hot dog.

I certainly didn't think Bagnini was a "lock" to make the team watching the two-out-in-the-ninth pitch sail over the centerfield fence.

We're talking about someone who can pitch in blowouts and keep an ERA around 5.0 in the pen.

Just look at what Dirk Hayhurst did when put  in a similar role in 2009.

"....I certainly didn't think Bagnini was a 'lock' to make the team watching the two-out-in-the-ninth pitch sail over the centerfield fence..."

He might not be a "lock" to make the team, but I also don't think the Jays will judge him on the basis of the one hit that he allowed yesterday.  He's only allowed 2 baserunners in his 3 innings of work this spring.  His stuff is good.  He's got a chance to make the team.

"....I think the radar guns are hot or something...."

This has been a subject of some debate this spring.  But several media members have checked into it, and they say the guns are accurate.  In yesterday's game, the Jays broadcast crew again specifically said that the radar guns are not hot.  I'm not saying that this settles the matter -- maybe all of the commentators are wrong -- but for what it's worth, they say they've checked and they're not hot.

"....Andy Burns has been great this spring but he's a 25 YO who hasn't hit well above A ball..."

Well, he hit .293 in Buffalo last season, with a .351 OBP.   It's true that he didn't show much power at Buffalo, but he hit 15 home runs in 2014 at New Hampshire.  Compared to Ryan Goins, he has been playing at higher levels in the system at the same age.

If he is playing as a super-utility guy, he doesn't need to be a power hitter, he just needs to get on base.  And that seems to be what he is learning to do.  With an OBP of .351 last year, and with 4 walks in 13 ABs this spring, he seems to be positioning himself as a player who can get on base.   That's the same skill that made Goins valuable last August and September.

I'm not saying that Burns is a great hitter, but I'm suggesting that he could have a future in the majors if he is learning some OBP skills -- and if he has the flexibility to play everywhere from SS to LF.

"I certainly didn't think Bagnini was a "lock" to make the team watching the two-out-in-the-ninth pitch sail over the centerfield fence."

His 2 Ks came on sweet nasty curves, paired nicely with his mid 90s heat, and hanging one fastball for the homer won't hurt him much i don't think. combined with the fact that we lose him if he doesn't make it, I'm starting to think he stays.


"The Sox are going to have a difficult decision with Shaw, who may be better than both Sandoval and 'Lonnie' Ramirez."

Shaw was horrific in AAA last year, and it's a sad statement for the sox if he's making it a difficult competition with 2 $20m players.

"The Sox team that Stroman ate up included one player who is likely to start, Betts. I suspect that's why Stro got the start against them. If the game had been played in Fort Myers, with regulars starting, Stro may have been held back to work a simulated game, like Price was on his turn when the Sox were in Tampa. "

There were 3 starters (Betts, Bradley, Castillo) 3 bench guys (holt, shaw, vazquez) - and 2 primary call ups (craig, marrero). None of the typical ST scrubs in there. A fairly strong spring lineup.

I'm not saying Bagnini won't make the team now, I was reacting to the suggestion that he is a "lock". He's not.

Like I said, I think he's getting pretty close.

RE: the gun, I just read that a breaking ball was clocked at 102 MPH in today's game, so..... ya.

Spring stats are marginally predictive for specific and extreme cases. It's certainly not predictive enough to be looking closely at stats.

Thanks Glevin and everyone else who has weighed in on the value of stats/records in spring training.  If there is one thing I value the most about discussion on the Box, it's a refusal to believe in the status quo, or received wisdom.  Baseball is just such a perfect medium to explore statistics, and to explore dogma as objectively as possible.

That said, I'm no math guy.  I'm more of a logical skeptic, so the concept that spring training has no meaning has always sat wrongly with me.  How could it not?  The players think it has value.  management concurs.  Spring training MUST have some sort of predictive value, or perhaps merely subjective value (I'm sure the players care who wins and loses). 

batting average, ERA, wins and losses, etc. - these numbers have already been relegated to the dustbin - spring training, regular season, whatever. 

What interests me at the moment (aside from our outstanding record, which started my whole desire to explore this topic further) is what spring training stats people are putting some weight into THIS SPRING. 

Based strictly on the few games we've had, I like Saunders chances to contribute as a regular this year, along with Goins and Smoak (in terms of at least meeting or perhaps exceeding expectations or projection metrics).  And I think dickey might surprise.

Anyone else care to weigh in on predictions based solely on stats thus far?  I think we all agree that many of the key roster decisions will be based on options, opt-outs, contract status, budget parameters, etc ...

 but who, if anyone, deserves to make the team based on spring results only?

I think generally skill wins, even when not taking the game seriously, so there should be some correlation.

The problem comes in cases where, for example, a vet pitcher is working on pitches without caring aboutactually trying to get guys out.

But on the flipside we have to acknowledge that spring stats definitely do impact decisions - for the guys battling for the final spots on the roster, their performance will matter and factor into roster decisions.

I don't think Biagini is a lock but he does have a chance. The closest thing to a lock among competing pitchers is that Hutch will go to Buffalo to begin the season.

"And I think dickey might surprise."

I'm in the same camp. Didn't realize how much pain he had been in till recent interviews. "There were days where I'd come in after a start and my knee would be the size of your head."

Now with a health knee, a different ST approach, a dedicated catcher, pending free agency and a great run in the second half of 2015, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a banner year...in which case I won't care how Thole stands or hits.

Time will tell.

"Compared to Ryan Goins, he has been playing at higher levels in the system at the same age."

And Goins would not be anywhere near the majors if he didn't have excellent defense at a skill position. He's not in the majors for his hitting. Burns walked 41 times in 132 games in each of the last two seasons in the minors. That's not really a big OBP guy. He had a a high OBP last year because he had a high BABIP (.335) and had a high average because of it. The year before, he had a .315 OBP in AA. Because of his versatility, he could have a career as a player like Don Kelly and that can be useful but that's not very exciting.

@JerJapan. Nothing yet. If there is any predictive value (and there isn't much) in spring, it comes later in March when the rosters have been whittled down a bit and players have had a little more PAs/IPs. I don't think there are very many real position battles on the Jays. End of the rotation, maybe 2 bullpen spots, and 4th OFer. It's not exciting but it's a sign of the Jays' strength that they don't have major spring battles.

BTW, are the Jays setting some sort of record for late bloomers on their team. Donaldson, Bautista, EE, Dickey, Estrada, Delabar... I'm sure there's more..and other than Delabar they are huge parts of their success. Plus 4 of the 6 emerged in Toronto. Good Luck, good coaching, good scouting..who knows ... but it seems surprising.

I think Biagini has a good chance of making the team. Atkins seemed excited that they were able to get him in the Rule 5, and his stuff from everything I have read seems to suggest he can be an effective reliever. He can always pitch in the Todd Redmond role to start off until he gains more of Gibby's trust. He's not some young raw kid. He's 25/26 with four pro seasons under his belt and his skill set with increased velocity is interesting (good control, keeps the ball in the park/on the ground). They could always try to work out a trade with the Giants to keep him in the org, but he's not competing with a bunch of established arms. It's conceivable he could warrant a spot in the pen depending on how his velocity holds up and how his other stuff looks. I'd say his chances are pretty good.

My guess if everyone stays healthy:

SP: Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Floyd
RP: Storen, Cecil, Osuna, Loup/Lefty, Biagini, Chavez, ??

That last spot available is the question mark. If they do what I hope they don't do, then Sanchez will get it. If they do the smart (IMO) thing and give it to someone in camp, that leaves Leon and Delabar as the only ones without options that would make sense, or Soriano if he ever makes it to camp. Personally, I think Delabar is done as a MLB reliever, and I haven't gotten a sense of how the club views Leon as a RP option. Soriano still hasn't pitched so who knows with him. Unfortunately, that leaves Sanchez in pretty good position to take a bullpen spot. He obviously does not want to be a reliever based on his comments, so it might be an easier sell to tell him to start in AAA than it would have been otherwise, but who knows. Storen's presence definitely makes that 4th reliever (behind Storen, Cecil, Osuna) less of a necessity.

grjas - incidentally that's one of the reasons why the projection systems don't love the jays as much as they could - they're not allowed to ignore the players' pre-breakout history.

On Burns I was a fan of his when he was kinda tearing it up when he was a year old for his levels - 129wrc+ at 21 in A and 156wrc+ at 22 in A+ - but then once he caught up to his age appropriate level he levelled off to mediocrity - 99, 104, 111 in 3 part seasons at AA. but mediocre doesn't mean bad. and his 112 was legit solid in AAA last year. If his glove provides legit value I think that bat is good enough to be a solid bench utility guy. the upside is there to be a Brock Holt type I think.

AAA

Burns (24-24): 527pa, 7.2bb%/13.1k%, .335babip/.293avg, 2.6spd/.079iso, 112wrc+
Holt (24-25): 435pa, 9.0bb%/14.5k%, .343babip/.300avg, 3.8spd/.065iso, 107wrc+

AA

Burns (22-24): 868pa, 7.7bb%/18.1k%, .288babip/.253avg, 6.2spd/.172iso, 103wrc+
Holt (23-24): 1011pa, 8.9bb%/13.5k%, .350babip/.303avg, 5.7spd/.104iso, 117wrc+

A+

Burns (22-22): 282pa, 8.9bb%/13.5k%, .349babip/.327avg, 7.8spd/.198iso, 156wrc+
Holt (22-22): 218pa, 8.7bb%/13.8k%, .402babip/.347avg, 4.5spd/.088iso, 144wrc+

I don't think there's any chance Sanchez goes down, SK. He's looking great in camp, has already been a dominant mlb RP, and showed a great upward trajectory as an SP in his first 11 career starts last year.

heck, there's a decent chance he's our #2 SP, especially if his improved control is legit and perhaps due at all to his serious weight gains this year.

doesn't look like Penny or Fausto did themselves any favors today.

"grjas - incidentally that's one of the reasons why the projection systems don't love the jays as much as they could - they're not allowed to ignore the players' pre-breakout history."

Interesting uglyone. Hadn't thought about that. Good point.

"Sanchez; a decent chance he's our #2 SP"

Yes. By playoff time (if &) when you're down to rotating 3 starters... I'd hope Sanchez is one of them.
Stro, Sanchez, and whoever is pitching best of the others - Estrada if he pitches like last year.
But what's Shapiro/Atkins thinking.

If necessary, the Blue Jays can go without a 5th Starter until April 16th. That's probably something the Jays will consider as a last resort contingency. Starters Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey and J.A. Happ should be ready and raring to go starting April 3rd. Marco Estrada may/may not be ready by then, but he will be very close. That's the only important consideration for the Rotation.

I fully expect Gavin Floyd, if healthy, to be the Jays' 5th Starter. I think that's basically why they signed him. Drew Hutchison is an option but he will be in AAA working on his problems. When he's good, he's a Front-Line Starter, or even better. When he's not, he's not good enough to be a bad Replacement Level Starter. He's either very good or very bad, but nothing in between. That makes no sense to me, what's actually wrong? I think Jesse Chavez is an acceptable replacement should anyone falter.

I don't think Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna can start this year in the Rotation and pitch all the way to the Postseason. They are still just too inning-limited. If John Gibbons uses both as multiple-inning Relievers until they build up their innings enough to Start. I fully expect Sanchez to be Starting in 2017 when Dickey, Floyd and Chavez leave as Free Agents. Osuna should be ready by 2018 when Estrada leaves.

Drew Storen should and will be the Main Closer. Roberto Osuna is a multi-inning, late inning, Backup Closer. Brett Cecil (L) and Aaron Sanchez (R) as multi-inning Relievers will join them in forming a dominant and very scary Bullpen. Jesse Chavez will pitch multiple innings to stay ready for the Rotation should he be needed. I would be very surprised to see Aaron Loup make the Roster, because forearm issues are never good news. Whichever LHP earns the job should be good enough, there are enough acceptable alternatives.

The 7th Reliever needs to be effective and consistent; someone Gibbons can trust. Unfortunately there are options, but they all have their warts. Ryan Tepera is a surprising Pitcher, exceptionally good, but with the annoying habit of giving up solo shots. Arnold Leon is a borderline Reliever who could be effective. Joe Biagini is a very good Rule 5 AA Starter with good stuff. He has all his options left but can't be sent down unless traded for. Rafael Soriano might still be a good Pitcher, but until he arrives at camp, no one knows. It's possible he won't be ready to start the season with the Team.

Estrada threw 35 pitches in a simulated game today, so at least he's finally testing his back and strengthening his arm. He says he really doesn't want to miss any starts but admitted he may not be 100% at the start of the season - he still wants to be contributing innings at least.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-estrada-throws-sim-game-says-hell-ready-start-season/

I wouldn't be surprised to see him split games with a Chavez or Hutch in April.

" I don't think there's any chance Sanchez goes down, SK He's looking great in camp, has already been a dominant mlb RP,"

He had a WAR of 0.33 in 26 innings as a reliever with a low K rate. That's hardly a dominant track record and he's pitched 5 innings early this spring where he's given up 8 baserunners. While I think here's a good chance he makes the team but there are a number of very realistic scenarios where he gets sent down to start in AAA. (i.e. he struggles in spring and doesn't win the fifth starter job, he pitches pretty well but someone pitches better, etc...).

A few random thoughts / questions.

Does WAR undervalue certain types of players?  I've always thought that Sanchez's WAR numbers undervalue his contribution, but, try as I might, I'm no stats guy ....

The first batch of minor league cuts contained no surprises, although I thought Pat McCoy might last longer as a LHP. 

With Loup hurt, why did we sign Choate and not Rex Brothers, who actually might be able to not suck? 

Is a Goins / Barney platoon the way to go at 2b?

Rosenthal had this worrisome nugget on Bautista: 

"For all the talk of Jose Bautista's contract demands, the Blue Jays only might be amenable to a Yoenis Cespedes-type deal, according to a major-league source.

Cespedes, 30, signed a three-year, $75 million free-agent contract with a one-year opt-out. Bautista, 35, asked the Jays for more than five years and more than $150 million, but with an average annual value below $30 million, another source said.

Bautista's rationale is that he stays in excellent physical condition, and will remain a potent force into his 40s. Will another club buy that argument? Recent trends suggest no. But Bautista is a unique player, and all he will need is one team to bite."

That certainly doesn't bode well, if legit.

I can't imagine anyone would sign Bautista to a 6 year deal for ages 36-41 for over $150 million. Realistically to expect more than $100 million over any length is not going to happen unless someone is willing to write off a big chunk of cash at the end (and I do mean big). To produce 30+ batting runs with the bat at age 41 you get a very short list - Barry Bonds & Ted Williams. To produce 20+ runs you get Stan Musial & Brian Downing added to the list. 15+ you add Carlton Fisk, Honus Wagner, Luke Appling. So 7 guys in baseball history have produced 1 1/2 wins or more with the bat at age 41. Yeah, Bautista could be the 8th guy but would you bet millions on that? If he said 'OK, you get me for age 41-45 then same price' then you get 8 guys (add in Cap Anson) who were worth 15+ batting runs from age 41 to whenever. Going by batting wins you can add in Joe Start for 1 1/2 wins.

So even going super generous you get a maximum of 9 guys in all of baseball history to be worth 1 1/2 wins with the bat from age 41 until they retired with Barry Bonds the only one worth more then 4 1/2 wins and we all know how he did that. I'd love Bautista to stay but unless his expectations come down a bit I don't see how on earth anyone can justify what he is asking for. Maybe if he hits 73 HR this year he'll make someone feel safe going for it (thats what Bonds did at 36).

"He had a WAR of 0.33 in 26 innings as a reliever with a low K rate. That's hardly a dominant track record and he's pitched 5 innings early this spring where he's given up 8 baserunners. While I think here's a good chance he makes the team but there are a number of very realistic scenarios where he gets sent down to start in AAA. (i.e. he struggles in spring and doesn't win the fifth starter job, he pitches pretty well but someone pitches better, etc...)."

I gotta push back on this a bit:

1. K rate is part of war already, so adding it in is redundant. If anything, putting up good WAR with low K rate is more impressive, not less.

2. 0.3war in 26.1ip is actually very good.

3. Sanchez has put up 0.9fwar in 59ip as an rp so far in his career, which is even better.

4. An extreme groundball pitcher is arguably underrated by fwar. Sanchez' 2.2ra9war in 59ip is flat out elite. Split the difference between WARs and the kid has been a 1.7war/65ip RP at ages 21-22, which is not only great, but also the best on the team.

5. His statline as an RP is hard to argue with:

Age 21-22: 59.1ip, 1.67era (42era-), 2.93fip (74fip-), 3.15xfip (81xfip-), 2.68siera



And damn he looks amazing today.

I'm with you on Sanchez, ugly. Too many people are writing him off before he's 25.

The three main spots open on the team are bullpen lefty, 5th starter and 4th outfielder. Enough has been said about the 5th starter, so I'll spark bullpen chatter.

For the lefty bullpen piece I want Pat Venditte. I'm not sure anybody else heard on the days broadcast the other day, but he was dominate pitching lefty on lefty and righty on righty and his struggles came against switch hitters. He always chose to pitch left handed against switch hitters and they really beat him up hitting close to .400. If you keep him away from switch hitters he's a dominant reliever.

"....My guess if everyone stays healthy:  SP: Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Floyd...."

At this point, Floyd seems less likely than Sanchez for a rotation spot.  The fact that the Jays today gave Sanchez the start and let him pitch 4 innings, while Floyd came in later in the game and pitched only 3 innings, is a hint that the Jays are probably favoring Sanchez over Floyd at this point.  Of course a lot can change, but this is the time of the spring when teams are starting to show (through innings allocations) which pitchers are favored for rotation slots.  Personally I'd prefer to have Floyd in the bullpen, but available as the 6th starter in case of injury to a starter.

If Sanchez doesn't make the rotation, I'd guess that Hutch or Chavez takes the 5th slot, rather than Floyd.  I like Floyd, but he hasn't pitched a significant number of games in the majors since 2012.  He hasn't pitched more than 54 innings in the majors in the past 3 seasons.  With his recent injuries and lack of innings, why put him in the rotation now?  Let him pitch regularly from the bullpen, assess his health, and have him available to go into the rotation later in the season if necessary.  

The pitching looked great today, and with Sanchez's upside and key role in the future of the team, I imagine the org wants him to earn the job.  He certainly did his part today.  For what it's worth, Buck shared the POV that Sanchez wasn't developed properly by the org. 

Chavez remains a strong swingman, and Floyd also looked tough today.  I'm a big Hutch supporter to boot - from almost no starting depth to a fairly deep roster of candidates.  I just hope the most starts end up going to the upside guys.

Lake had a solid game - he didn't look too out of place in CF and has some speed to make up for his inexperience.  I'd be fine with him winning the4th OF  job and Pompey forcing his way back onto the roster with a strong month in AAA.  By the time he gets back, guys are going to need resting and he doesn't have to sit on the bench too much.

I really don't want Randy Choate to win the LOOGY role, but I have a hunch that he will.  I figure the seventh spot in the pen comes down to protecting resources - Jenkins? or Biagini perhaps - but the fact that he can't be demoted certainly works against him.  Delebar looked good today but I assume the team cuts him in spring to save the bulk of his contract. 

Yeah we're about halfway through spring so I it's time to start sorting out these roster battles. Cuts are gonna start coming fast soon.

(reminder these stats don't mean much)

1. #4 OF

Ceciliani 16ab, 4bb/4k, 0/0sb, 1.149ops
Fields 12ab, 0bb/3k, 0/1sb, .833ops
Lake 19ab, 1bb/1k, 3/3sb, .754ops
Brown 19ab, 3bb/2k, 0/1sb, .641ops
Pompey 18ab, 2bb/7k, 0/0sb, .639ops
Carrera 15ab, 3bb/5k, 1/1sb, .289ops

- Fields isn't really in this battle as you can see from his fewer AB
- Ceciliani is the best fielder by a good margin so the more he shows with the bat the likelier he wins the spot
- they've been testing Lake quite a bit in CF so far to see if he can handle it. based on his history he probably can't.
- carrera was the easy safe bet to start but hasn't done himself any favors so far


2. #5 SP

Sanchez 9.0ip, 1bb/10k, 1.11wh, 2.00era
Floyd 8.0ip, 1bb/9k, 0.75wh, 3.38era
Chavez 7.0ip, 4bb/4k, 1.14wh, 3.86era
Hutch 6.2ip, 3bb/5k, 1.20wh, 4.05era
Hernandez 5.0ip, 2bb/5k, 1.60wh, 7.20era
Penny 5.0ip, 1bb/2k, 1.80wh, 5.40era

- given that they were longshots from the start, good chance hernandez and penny have eliminated themselves already with their poor starts
- Sanchez simply looks dominant so far, and has shown improvement in the most crucial areas - command and swinging strikes. Right now the spot is his to lose imo.
- Floyd has also looked good. If Sanchez slips he moves in.
- Chavez isn't challenging yet
- Hutch has been ok but it'z getting easier to send him down to start fulltime


3. #7/8 RP

- 2 of Sanchez/Floyd/Chavez will be the #5/6 guys
- Loup's injury means that we'll need the #8 to start the season

Hutch 6.2ip, 3bb/5k, 1.20wh, 4.05era
Biagini 3.0ip, 0bb/4k, 0.67wh, 3.00era
Tepera 3.2ip, 1bb/3k, 1.36wh, 2.45era
Delabar 4.0ip, 1bb/4k, 1.50wh, 4.50era
Choate ---
Venditte 3.0ip, 2bb/1k, 0.67wh, 0.00era

Diamond 3.0ip, 0bb/1k, 0.33wh, 0.00era
Leon 3.0ip, 2bb/2k, 0.67wh, 0.00era
Leblanc 3.0ip, 2bb/2k, 1.00wh, 0.00era
Aardsma 3.0ip, 1bb/1k, 1.00wh, 6.00era
Girodo 2.1ip, 1bb/2k, 1.71wh, 0.00era

- Biagini has been the most impressive so far imo. he's probably in the lead.
- hutch probably starts in AAA
- they're giving Delabar every chance but he's not grabbing it
- Tepera has been good too
- get the feeling that choate will get the last spot unless he completely stinks
- the bottom group I don't really think is in teh battle

Roemon Fields and Ben Rowen were among a bunch of players who were demoted this weekend.  (Most of the remainder were minor-league prospects.)

I generally agree with most of uglyone's assessment of the races.  Since it's virtually certain that Loup will be on the DL at the start of the season, there are 2 openings in the bullpen, and I'd say the frontrunners at this point are Venditte and Choate (for the Loup position) and Biagini and Delabar (for the non-Loup position).  It's also possible that Girodo and LeBlanc still have a shot at the Loup position.  The other relievers seem to be longshots.  I guess a bunch of the fringe pitchers will be placed on waivers at the end of spring training, and most of them will probably pass through waivers and end up at Buffalo.

It's too bad that Soriano hasn't shown up yet, since he was one of the most intriguing options for the bullpen.

Plate appearances by Toronto outfielders in 2015:

Pillar 528
Bautista 520
Revere 246
Carrera 185
Colabello 182
Valencia 112
Pompey 103
Saunders 36
Pennington 9
Tolleson 7
Goins 6
Diaz 4

You'll notice there were more than 300 plate appearances by guys playing the outfield who weren't even outfielders. So I'm inclined to think that you're going to need four of them. At least.

I've been touting Sanchez's potential as a front-rotation starter for several years now - a position I've taken a lot of heat for - so I'm happy to see him performing well in that role (even if it is only spring training). I imagine that all of his training with Stroman with the specific goal of becoming a SP has helped him a lot. It will be interesting to see how he does in that role (if in fact he earns a spot in the rotation) and whether he can stay healthy over the course of a full season.

If Sanchez wins the #5 spot, and both Floyd/Chavez are in the pen, then there is a good chance the team's pen will have two spot starters/swing men, one LOOGY (Choate/Loup), and one Rule 5 pick (Biagini) behind their top 3 relievers. That's not an ideal way to build a bullpen. One of the swing men (Floyd/Chavez) would have to work in short relief in that scenario, unless Gibbons plans on using a lot of Biagini in that role.

If they don't take advantage of Sanchez's options and start him in AAA, then they better be sure that 2016 Sanchez is a much better starter than 2015 Sanchez. A lot is riding on 2016 for the franchise. Marginalizing (for lack of a better word) two pretty solid SP options on the hope that Sanchez has learned how to pitch is a huge gamble with this much on the line this season.

I just saw Sanchez's post game interview, and he definitely has an ego as far as starting. I don't mean that as a knock either, it just seems like he really does not want to pitch out of the bullpen, and honestly I don't blame him as his value to the team as a 6th inning reliever is not nearly as big.

Good problem to have, but tough decisions are coming. If Sanchez's starts begin to resemble the Houdini acts he was pulling off last season, then they better be prepared to change course.

"....One of the swing men (Floyd/Chavez) would have to work in short relief in that scenario..."

Judging by today, and judging by last season, Floyd will be excellent in a one-inning role.  He could even be a good set-up man in the 7th or 8th innings, since the Jays can't use Osuna and Storen in every game. 

The only problem is that Floyd won't be stretched out and therefore won't be able to step immediately into the rotation if he is needed as a starter.  But that's okay.  It wouldn't take very long to stretch him out if they need him.

SK, I fully don't see Sanchez as a Houdini act.  I get that you value floor over ceiling, but this is an elite young arm with tremendous upside as a starter that we are talking about.  1st round pick, graduated from top prospect status, over a year contributing out of the pen / rotation for a contender by the age of 23 - and he just put on 20 pounds of muscle.  sure, best shape of your life, yada yada ... but this is still a young man whose body can change significantly in an offseason.  Did you watch today?  he looked great.  maybe it's time to start beating a different drum. 

"maybe it's time to start beating a different drum. "

His starts in 2015 were very much Houdini acts. He had very little command of anything, and got by on a combination of luck and a great GB rate. He wasn't ready to be a big league starter in 2015. You can't ignore his entire pro career as a SP to focus on 10 ST innings and say he's turned the corner.

Obviously, things can change in a year. The upside is there without question, especially since his best pitch is hard to get good contact on (possible FIP-beating characteristic?) . However, if he's a starter in a season where the Jays have to make the playoffs, then I'll need to see more than a couple of good ST starts to convince me he is a better SP option than guys with track records. Floyd in particular had a 0.6 WAR with a 50% GB% in 9 starts the last time he was healthy enough to start in the bigs (2014 with Atlanta). Even at his age there is upside for the Jays there as well. Chavez is also a solid SP.

There is a huge level of risk with starting Sanchez. Maybe that risk will pay off if he's turned the corner and can command not only his FB but his secondary stuff as well. Time will tell. I just think it makes more sense to start Floyd in the rotation, Chavez as the swing man, and keep Sanchez stretched out in AAA since that would maximize each pitcher's ability to start. If Floyd and Chavez are both in the pen, then it will be harder to count on them to spot start. If Sanchez is in the pen, then it makes transitioning him to be a starter in 2017-beyond a bit harder. And so on.

If the choices are Sanchez in the big league pen or Sanchez in the big league rotation, I'd probably go with rotation only because Chavez and Floyd won't be here next season, and I'd rather Sanchez be a SP option than have to count on free agency to fill rotation spots next year. It just has a chance of hurting the team's chances in 2016 if Sanchez is still the same SP he was in 2010-15.

It's nice that Sanchez threw 4 excellent innings today.  It may be that Estrada isn't ready for the rotation when the bell rings, in which case they will need 2 starters behind Stroman/Dickey/Happ.  We shall see how the next 2 weeks goes.

One thing that Fangraphs needs to fix is the way they do WAR projections for pitchers.  Take the 2016 Sanchez projection.  He is projected to throw 83 innings- 28 in the rotation and 55 in the pen.  Fair enough.  The performance projections for both roles is the same- 3.98 ERA and 4.27 FIP with identical ratios.  Not so good.  The average pitcher is much more effective in relief than in the rotation, and Sanchez has been, to date, more extreme in this regard than the average pitcher.  In the result, he is projected to contribute 0.3 WAR for 28 starting innings (i.e. to be quite good) and 0 WAR for 55 relief innings ( i.e. absolutely useless).  It's a dumb projection. 

"One of the swing men (Floyd/Chavez) would have to work in short relief in that scenario"

what's the problem there, exactly?

sanchez osuna hendriks cecil are all guys we moved from starting to short relief.

is there something special about these guys that they can't be used the same way?

"One thing that Fangraphs needs to fix is the way they do WAR projections for pitchers."

absolutely the most frustrating part of their projections. along with the lack of platoon projections.

"His starts in 2015 were very much Houdini acts. He had very little command of anything, and got by on a combination of luck and a great GB rate. He wasn't ready to be a big league starter in 2015."

hardly the worst first career 11 starts a good mlber has had.

more importantly, he showed drastic improvement over those first 11 career starts:

GMs 1-3: 4.2ip/gs, 14.1k%, 18.8bb%, 126era-, 176fip-
GMs 4-7: 6.0ip/gs, 14.8k%, 15.7bb%, 92era-, 115fip-
GMs 8-11: 7.0ip/gs, 15.6k%, 7.3bb%, 63era-, 113fip-

when he's averaging 7ip with 2:1k/bb and a miniscule era by the end there, it's hard to argue the guy wasn't ready to start.

and if he hadn't been injured at that point, he may have continued that upswing. he certainly looks like he's continuing the command improvement.

And as far as houdini, amongst all 186 SP with at least 50ip sanchez was top 5 in groundball percentage and top 15 in lowest hard contact percentage.

there is a good chance the team's pen will have two spot starters/swing men, one LOOGY (Choate/Loup), and one Rule 5 pick (Biagini) behind their top 3 relievers. That's not an ideal way to build a bullpen;

Loup faced lots of right handed hitters the last few years. Choate will get slaughtered if he's used the same way, so I'd rather not see him at all.

You have guys for the 7th, 8th and 9th and Gibby doesn't like to mix a LOOGY with his top guys. I have no problem with having 3 stretched guy rounding up the pen. One guy can throw several innings when the team is losing, or if the top 3 needs some rest or there isn't a save situation. There's nothing preventing those guys to go only one inning, you just need to rotate them.

I'm cheering on Venditte to make the pen just because I love the idea of a switch pitcher. I'd much prefer him to Choate, keep Choate in AAA until September (if he'll do it) when a pure LOOGY could be useful.

Venditte would be my choice.  It seems that you don't want him to face a switch-hitter, but otherwise he should be effective.  You should be able to make good use of a pitcher with that limitation. 

Venditte's numbers against LHB were so good last year that I am puzzled by why Oakland put him on waivers -- and why so many other teams did not put in a waiver claim for him.  Can anyone explain?  There must be more to the story.

I'd think with the switch pitching he'd have more endurance too. Better a guy who has trouble with switch hitters (12% roughly), than one with trouble vs right handers (around 60% of hitters).

I think the LOOGY role should be extinct. Wasting a roster spot on a guy who only faces one batter just seems like a waste, especially when the model bullpen that every team seems to be emulating (KC) never relied on splits. They just put their best three guys in the last three innings, and used their other RP's based on leverage. I hope Choate is not going to win a spot. I would rather it be someone without options who might have some value, or a minor league reliever with some upside.

Speaking of KC, their lefty specialist from last year, Franklin Morales, just signed a minor league pact deal with Milwaukee- IMO he's another superior option to Choate available for nothing.  The FO mus see something I don't in the guy.

SK, of course you aren't implying that I'm pro-Sanchez to the rotation based on 10 IPs in ST?  That would be a bit of a strawman.  I've disagreed with your assessment of him (he needs to develop secondary pitches in the minors, looks like an ace reliever more than a starter) for at least a year. 

Any thoughts on this story about the police visiting a guy who threatened to throw the Ted Rogers statue in the harbour?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/blue-jays-fan-threats-1.3489898?cmp=rss

Dude shouldn't be so foolish publicly, but this certainly does reinforce the hamfisted Rogers hates fans narrative. 

It's not just the LOOGY role. There is definitively a role for a guy who excels with runners in scoring position and who can finish up an inning so the top relievers can work their own inning without having to worry about inherited runners. When 4 or 5 of the starters are right handed, that guy is probably a lefty.

Taking Ted Rogers hostage never crossed my mind.

We are at the stage in Spring Training where they run out of innings and at bats for everyone. Those who were up as a courtesy are usually back at the Minor League Camp by now. Those who just filled spots have joined them. Those who have gained Replacement Level Status (3rd ranked, 4th ranked and more) need more innings/at bats, so they are also sent down.

Whoever's left in Spring Training: is making the team whether competing for the 4th Outfield position, the 5th Starter position, or the 7th Reliever position; or, establishing primary and secondary Replacement Level Status. More cuts are due soon.

Tommy John Surgery is a consideration for Aaron Loup. He might survive without it, but what do we get? I don't expect him to be better. I was surprised Marco Estrada escaped injury, but then he had pitched 150.2 innings in 2014, before pitching 200.1 in 2015. He's just scheduled to throw to real hitters for the first time, sometime soon (back issues was it)?

It's possible Aaron Sanchez is/might be a future Tommy John consideration. He pitched 104.2 innings in 2015. He reaches that point in early June 2016, if he's in the Rotation. It's possible that sometime over the next 96.0 or so innings that he must pitch, Aaron will get hurt. Anyone who thinks he won't needs to take more ice cold showers.

Alternatives:
1) Start him in the Rotation until June, then put him in the Bullpen for the Balance of the Season/Postseason. Cap his innings at 140-ish.
2) Start him in the Bullpen as a multi-inning Reliever. Cap his innings at 140-ish. It's easier to be stretched out to Start if necessary, but not after mid-June.

That's it. If he's to be a possible Starter in 2017, he needs more innings this year, and those two alternatives are it. Of course, keeping Sanchez are a permanent Reliever is a consideration. It all depends on Aaron.

"what's the problem there, exactly?"


The set up where the two starters with track records become relievers while the guy with good relief numbers becomes a starter (despite a huge sample size showing he lacks command/performance in that role) just seems like a counter-productive way to build a bullpen for a team trying to win in 2016. That would be placing a lot of faith in Sanchez's starting ability. I have no problem with him starting, but if it's in AAA where he can prove that his command issues are somewhat resolved (rather than 10-20 ST innings), then it would be easier to call him up some time mid-season to pitch in the rotation. In that scenario, you get to see what you have with Floyd as a SP, and Chavez is there to back him up. Using them in 1 inning high leverage roles for a month or two and then suddenly needing them to start games in May or June is going to make the transition harder (for Floyd in particular given his injury history).

It goes back to my point about Pompey last time we discussed him. If you have the options, use them to your advantage. It doesn't hurt the team or Sanchez if he starts in AAA. Floyd and Chavez, health permitting, are both more than capable SP's.

Stroman has options too. we should start him in AAA to give ourselves the best depth in baseball.

It absolutely hurts Sanchez if he starts in AAA, unless you'd be happy with a 75% reduction in your pay. These are real people the organization is managing, not baseball cards. I just don't see how the team could justify optioning down Sanchez at this point and telling him to work on his pitches and hope that a spot opens up on the big league club, even if I agree with your basic premise.

Like Mike, I'm skeptical of Estrada's ability to break camp with the team, regardless of what the team is saying as of now.

(rather than 10-20 ST innings)

Okay, you are repeating this, so it is clearly a straw man.  Cut it out.  Nobody here - nobody - thinks differently about Sanchez because of his spring performance.

Jer this is a public forum.

If you don't like others to share their opinion about the Jays maybe go somewhere else?

I'm referring specifically to the 'Cut it out'.

In case youre wondering. :)

Also, how do you know that:

"Nobody here - nobody - thinks differently about Sanchez because of his spring performance"

Did you do a survey? Sounds like you are making up information.

A Monday morning, no Jays game, musing...

Troy T...

His career stats with the Rockies have a large Home/Away skew, However, even his "away" skew is a reasonably nice skew. As skews go...


HOME; 2056 AB .318, .391, .553, .944
AWAY:  2004 AB .274, .347, .462, .809

In 2016 with the Jays...

HOME: 88 AB, .250, .337, .443, .780
AWAY:  75 AB, .227, .293, .307, .599

I'd be happy with 2016 stats near his Career "Away" stats from the Rockies - but - my inner 10 year old gets excited thinking about something closer to his Rockies "Home" skew. And, his 2015 stats from his time with the Jays shows he likes our home park...

"what's the problem there, exactly?"

There are two and only two ways to stretch out Aaron Sanchez, both mentioned above.
WHY?
These are the only ways you can keep his talents on the Roster.
SO?
The main object of the 2016 Season is to go farther in the Postseason than last year and be in the World Series. The Jays need to put the best people as possible on the Roster. The secondary objective is to stretch him out enough to be a viable Starter consideration for 2017. It's more beneficial for Sanchez to learn at the MLB level, and better for the Team.

Marco Estrada is at least two weeks behind everyone else with a back thingy problem. I don't know whether he'll be ready, soon enough. Chances are good he's not.
OH?
If he makes the Opening Day Roster, he might not pitch six or seven innings very soon. Aaron Sanchez might be needed more in the Bullpen.
If he's held back for more than 10 days, two Starter might be needed. Aaron Sanchez might be more needed in the Rotation.
WHY HIM?
Who pitches where is an Atkins/Gibbons decision, so they might want to see what Gavin Floyd and Jesse Chavez gives them first.

"Taking Ted Rogers hostage never crossed my mind. "

Shhh.
You just have to tweet about taking the statue hostage and the policeman come to your door. Especially if you have a foreign sounding name.

go back in your hole, pubster.

I suppose it's something to talk about, but listening to Gibbons, Wilner and anybody close to the team, there is a zero percent chance that Sanchez doesn't break with the club. He'll be with the Jays. As recently as yesterday's broadcast, Wilner was adamant on the topic.

I think the more interesting debate is how you leverage him assuming some kinds of innings-limit over the course of the season. He may 'win' a starting role, but if he realizes his potential, how do you keep him pitching into September/October? He pitched ~92 innings last year and has topped out at ~133 in 2014. Seems like you'd need some serious tandem-matching in the first part of the season.

Vulg, the innings limit has definitely been under scrutiny in the past few years:

http://www.ibtimes.com/do-innings-limits-work-baseball-mlb-working-toward-new-solutions-2100599

To me, Sanchez is the sort of guy - strong starters body, growing physically, history pitching high leverage innings with a major league coaching staff / trainer - who could easily blow past his 'limit' with some intelligent management.  Quick with the hook + the odd skipped start in the first two thirds of the season and you could still count on him as a mid rotation starter come the playoffs.  IMO.

To me, the ideal scenario with a Chavez in the pen and a Hutch in AAA is this.

http://bluejayhunter.com/2016/03/kaplan-david-price-wouldve-taken-less-to-stay-in-toronto.html

the next time the best free agent on the market will be willing to take less to sign with the Jays will be in ____?

"Stroman has options too. we should start him in AAA to give ourselves the best depth in baseball."


Excellent comparison. Stroman, a starter who has pitched like a star at every level, vs. Sanchez, a guy who hasn't shown a lick of command as a starter in five pro seasons and is competing with pitchers that are projected to be better than him in 2016. Amazing. Identical situations.

"Okay, you are repeating this, so it is clearly a straw man. Cut it out. Nobody here - nobody - thinks differently about Sanchez because of his spring performance."


Maybe the guy who responded to me after Sanchez's last start by saying 'Did you watch today? he looked great' might be buying into his ST performance. Oh wait, that was you. So nobody is taking Sanchez's ST performance seriously, yet bringing up that he looked great in 4 innings against a split squad lineup was done for what purpose, exactly?

If you like Sanchez as a SP, that's fine. Not once have I said that he's a failed prospect or will never be a good starter. Your arguments so far have been that he's gained 20 pounds of muscle (which is absurd unless he's on something) and he's a top prospect. I'm not sure how that is supposed to invalidate how he has performed so far or better assess how to project his performance in 2016. All I'm saying is you can't take ST performance seriously since there are so many variables involved. Maybe he has turned the corner, but we won't know that until he's pitching in meaningful games.

"It absolutely hurts Sanchez if he starts in AAA, unless you'd be happy with a 75% reduction in your pay."


Sure, but I was talking about hurting his development. If anything, it probably helps his development since he can tinker with more of his off-speed stuff and work on his command a bit more. It wouldn't hurt the team because Floyd and Chavez are solid MLB starters (if healthy in Floyd's case), and Sanchez in that scenario would be stretched out and ready to fill in mid-season when necessary.

From an ego/money standpoint, certainly it would hurt Sanchez, but I'm looking at it from a team standpoint. Pompey's ego is probably bruised too.

Maybe the guy who responded to me after Sanchez's last start by saying 'Did you watch today? he looked great' might be buying into his ST performance. Oh wait, that was you. So nobody is taking Sanchez's ST performance seriously, yet bringing up that he looked great in 4 innings against a split squad lineup was done for what purpose, exactly?

okay, I brought that up because it validated what i think - that Sanchez can be a mid rotation starter, possibly a number 2, for this club. When I watched the game, he looked better than he did last year.

Of course, 4  ST IPs doesn't mean $%&^.  But he looked like the guy I think he is.  Upside.  Hard to be definitive here, but I know - we all know (except pubster) that chavez doesn't have that level of upside.  Hutch and Sanchez, my prefered guys for the rotation, have a higher ceiling than chavez. 

Again, I get your preference for a high floor.  But please don't pretend my last year of commenting on Sanchez's legitimate starter status counts for nothing.  I've been all over this thread about the value of spring training stats ... I just legitimately like Sanchez - or Hutch - for the rotation.  I assume you know about SSS.  I'd like to think you assume the same thing about me. 

From an ego/money standpoint, certainly it would hurt Sanchez, but I'm looking at it from a team standpoint.

If Sanchez has a good spring, he's not going to be sent down. Sending a player to the minors who has been on the major league team continuously since July 2014 and been a successful contributor, and who has has a solid spring, would not likely be seen as 'good for the team'. Players aren't stratomatic cards.

For Sanchez, it's easy. You pull him back into the pen at the end of July.

"okay, I brought that up because it validated what i think - that Sanchez can be a mid rotation starter, possibly a number 2, for this club. When I watched the game, he looked better than he did last year."


I'm confused. You took it as a personal insult when I said no one should be using Sanchez's ST performance thus far to determine that he's turned the corner as a SP, and yet you're using his ST performance to determine that he's looked better than he did last season. So why are you upset, exactly?



"Of course, 4 ST IPs doesn't mean $%&^. But he looked like the guy I think he is. Upside. Hard to be definitive here, but I know - we all know (except pubster) that chavez doesn't have that level of upside. Hutch and Sanchez, my prefered guys for the rotation, have a higher ceiling than chavez."


Chavez is a projected ~2 WAR starter. You could argue whether you feel he will perform like that in 2016, but his 'floor' in this case is going to help the team. We don't know what we are going to get from Sanchez. You can sugar coat 2015 as much as you want, but lefties killed him, and his peripherals as a starter were pretty bad overall (5.21 FIP, 5.05 BB/9, 5.73 K/9). He is not a finished product.

Sanchez has upside. The issue with him is he walks way too many batters and he doesn't get enough swings and misses. Against big league hitters who work counts, he'll need to have a put away pitch. That will make his great GB rates and velocity that much more dangerous. If you think he can develop that in the bigs instead of the minors, then fine, but be prepared to possibly cost yourself in the process if he's still the same guy he was in 2015. That's a big risk to take when the team's win curve is where it currently is.



"Again, I get your preference for a high floor."


Wait, when did I say this?

"If Sanchez has a good spring, he's not going to be sent down. Sending a player to the minors who has been on the major league team continuously since July 2014 and been a successful contributor, and who has has a solid spring, would not likely be seen as 'good for the team'. Players aren't stratomatic cards."


Then put him in the bullpen where most of that big league success has come from. Not that I agree with doing that (I'd rather have as many SP options as possible), but his value to the 2016 team is likely greater in the pen than in the rotation.

Don't get me wrong, if he wins the #5 starter spot, and he has a great 2016 as a starter in the bigs, then I'd be thrilled. More than thrilled, actually. I just think it's risky to count on that.

I'm still amazed how someone who constantly stresses the importance of kids is so scared of playing them.

Even to the point where you refuse to allow top 25 prospects the chance to earn a spot ahead of journeyman fringe vets and reclamation projects.

I liked you better when you were crying about Price ad nauseum instead.

ugly, I am not 'afraid' of playing the kids. I just want them put in a position where they are helping the team, especially in 2016 where every win comes with much greater value.

Sanchez being stretched out in ST is fine. If the org feels he has improved and are willing to take a chance on him in the rotation, then it is what it is. In that case, I would hope their hunch is correct. However, I don't see the logic in giving Sanchez a rotation spot in 2016 coming off the season he had as a SP in 2015 (and really his entire MiLB career), while guys with much better track records as SP's are either not even getting any serious consideration (Hutchison) or are being treated as fungible pieces (Chavez/Floyd). Granted, if Floyd even makes it to April with his arm in one piece, I'd consider that a miracle in itself, but so far he's healthy and his velocity is back to normal. If he stays healthy, why wouldn't you want to at least try to see what he has in the rotation given his track record, especially when Sanchez is young, raw, and has options? If he fails, then Sanchez is still there to take his spot, right?

This could be a moot point if Estrada has to miss time. We could see Sanchez and Floyd/Chavez both in the rotation to start the year in that case. I'm going on the assumption that everyone is healthy. I just don't see why Sanchez has to be handed a spot just because he was on the big league team last season, especially in a role he's never shown much success in (to this point).

Encarnacion has a "minor oblique problem" and will be shut down for a week.  The Jays are still saying that he'll be ready for opening day, but some skepticism could be warranted.

If he's on the DL on opening day, it's clear that Colabello and Smoak will share most of the DH and 1B duties. But a quick poll:  who would you add to the roster to take EE's spot if he's on the disabled list?  Is there a bench player who deserves the spot?  Would you give it to a 5th outfelder?  Or an infielder?  And is there a hitter who is close enough to the majors to warrant the roster spot?

"....I just think it's risky to count on that...."

If Sanchez opens the season in the starting rotation, I don't think the Jays would be "counting on" him in some dangerous way.  They would give him a few starts and see how he does.  They will undoubtedly be watching him very closely.  If he is consistently giving up too many walks or too many runs, there are plenty of options to replace him -- Hutch or Chavez or Floyd. 

In fact, every pitcher has a risk attached to him.  Pitchers like Dickey or Hutchison or Chavez have, in the past, often had terrible games or bad stretches.  The risk attached to Sanchez isn't necessarily much worse than that.  But he's got a higher ceiling than Floyd or Chavez, so -- if he seems to be reducing his walks and pitching well and allowing mostly groundballs -- why not give him a chance?  You can't eliminate risk. 

I don't think Sanchez is being handed a spot - I think he's earning it.

I was a huge Sanchez skeptic heading into last year, and was arguing for estrada to be in the rotation ahead of him all thru April. But he started to change my mind as the year went on - first as he started to excel as a starter in his last 4 or 5 starts (and specifically drastically improved his biggest weakness - command) and then as he showed he that his first year as an RP wasn't a total fluke. Combined with his nasty stuff, he's starting to approach a sample size where even his ability to induce weak contact is looking more like skill.

If he continues to show that he's figured out his command issues spring, imo that alone should earn him a spot.

Funny thing is, I like Floyd too. I wouldn't be shocked if in the end, if Floyd is healthy, the sticking point will be us being stuck with giving Happ undeserved starts.

Career as SP:

Stroman (25): 24gs, 6.2ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 83xfip-
Dickey (41): 240gs, 6.4ip/gs, 97era-, 106fip-, 104xfip-
Floyd (33): 196gs, 6.0ip/gs, 98era-, 97fip-, 96xfip-
Estrada (32): 99gs, 5.9ip/gs, 100era-, 107fip-, 106xfip-
Chavez (32): 49gs, 5.8ip/gs, 107era-, 100fip-, 96xfip-
Happ (33): 170gs, 5.7ip/gs, 104era-, 105fip-, 106xfip-
(Sanchez (22): 11gs, 6.0ip/gs, 87era-, 127fip-, 115xfip-)

I sure wish Happ wasn't being handed a spot without having to earn it.

Buck Martinez has a new book out today, the title is change-up.

The blurb on the Chapters website starts with "In the spirit of Moneyball...". I have not read Buck's book but I doubt that much of what Buck writes is in the spirit of Moneyball.

Thanks for compliment about picking Diaz. My real life has been engaging.

Many posters have talked about the backup CF, C and 5th starter situations. I cannot add more contents but to give a balance of what information have been presented on this thread. Cecillani has surprised. Brown and Lake may be better start the season in Buffalo; 2016 is so crucial a season for the Jays to postseason that taking chances on Brown and Lake do not significantly improve Jays chance. Buffalo give enough fielding time and PAs for B and L that they can keep improving. 162 games is a long season. Carrera has hit enough well in Buffalo last season; if his defense is not good, the only way to test his improvement is to put him on the field. Given that Buffalo has Mesa, Brown and Lake and Toronto has Saunders, Pillar and JoeyBats, Carrera shall either get full-time or close to full time fielding. Pompey can field but is his hitting improving enough to contribute meaningfully to 2016 postseason run ? In essence, the 4th or 5th OF discussion involves among Cecillani and Carrera, Lake too if minor league option is concerned, which is a restriction not a contributing factor. Can the Jays slip Lake thru waiver to DFA him to Buffalo ?

About backup C, as mentioned both Diaz and Quintero are known for defense. Is Tony Sanchez unknown in his skills ? I cannot assess him with enough information given in this thread. So lineup of catchers in descending preference is Martin Thole Quintero/Diaz Sanchez Jimenez.

I read some blurb somewhere about Jimenez not only impressing so far but alo being in the best shape of his life. I still haven't given up on that guy. I still think he can be a plus defensive catcher with a passable bat.

Reports out of the DR say Edwin is looking for a four or five year deal and that initial talks with the Jays did not line up on that length of contract.

Jimenez is out of options and will probably end up somewhere else in 2 weeks.

Four years for Edwin should not be a problem.  The issue is probably deciding on which of Bats or EE to pursue. A this point might as well wait and see how the year turns out for them. Would Bats be upset if EE signs an extension now?

considering our backup catching situation, I'd be annoyed if some other team thought jimenez was worthier of a roster spot than we do.

I have not read Buck's book but I doubt that much of what Buck writes is in the spirit of Moneyball.

Let's hope that Pat Tabler authored the foreword. That would be the cherry on top.

The Harper-Collins about the book blurb is a piece of misguided, inaccurate crap just on its very own. (Buck, presumably 150 years old, witnessed the game when it was a grassroots pastime? Fan interest is sagging? Free agency is challenging fan interest? Moneyball?)

Ceciliani again the guy replacing Edwin in what is otherwise the full starting lineup today. He may be in pole position for that last roster spot.

Pillar again hitting leadoff, tulo cleanup. Edwin's injury may be helping to make this an easy decision, even though Pillar isn't exactly raking.

Chavez off to another rough start today, looks like.

"we all know (except pubster) that chavez doesn't have that level of upside"


Jer, you just keep making up information.

First of all nobody 'knows' anything, otherwise talent evaluation would be an exact science. The Jays would never have been able to get a Jose Bautista if everyone just "knew" his ceiling.

Secondly why don't you just speak for yourself instead of being the spokesperson for all jays fans and telling us what we all think.

Youre not as smart as you think you are.

Chavez is very similar to Stroman. They both have a large arsenal of pitches, but Stroman has  3 or 4 plus pitches while everything Chavez throws is classified as average.

What's the true ceiling for a guy like that? Probably developing one of his pitches (better speed and/or break) and using it more. Kinda hard to do when his success hinges on throwing something different on every pitch. So, arguably, the road to improvement for Chavez might be through the pen where he could throw harder.

I suspect he won't be able to hold a rotation spot, but I think he might as well get his shot.

Is it meant to be a Trump parody? Let's make baseball great again?

Another impressive day for Jimenez and Ceciliani in today's game.  The roster crunch at the end of spring training will be a good test for Shapiro and Atkins:  can they find creative ways of keeping as many players as possible?  Or at least acquiring something of value for those who cannot be kept?  Shapiro and Atkins were smart to seek depth in their off-season acquisitions, but depth can aggravate the roster dilemmas at the end of spring training.  Will they find ways to exploit the DL and the options and the waiver system to keep as many players as possible?  Jimenez does seem like a priority.  It might be convenient if Encarnacion has to begin the season on the DL for a few days, so that an extra player can be squeezed into the roster for a few days, and then sneaked through waivers later.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-teams-with-the-most-dead-money-in-mlb/#comment-5107051

interesting piece on how much money teams are paying players that aren't on their 40 man roster.

the Indians' prominent rank on this list isn't a feather in Shapiro's cap, and kind of counteracts all the "value" signings he apparently made in cleveland.

imo it's another byproduct of spreading out money on riskier 2nd and 3rd tier players - they have a much higher chance of going completely bust than the top tier players do, and then you're stuck. much like happened with us with romero/morrow/rios/hill/etc.

Ben Nicholson-Smith @bnicholsonsmith
Marco Estrada made a minor league start today, first of the spring: 2 IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 4K #BlueJays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has his 17th birthday tomorrow.  He is currently in minor-league spring training.  His goals: Vancouver this season; New Hampshire next season; the majors before he turns 20.  That's probably over-ambitious, but it's stunning that he thinks he can do it.  Wow.  Here's the story:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/vladimir-guerrero-jr-makes-father-proud-blue-jays-spring-training/

Totally agree with Dan Shulman's take on Sanchez as the 5th starter. I hope ShapAtkins do so too.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/shows/tim-and-sid-show/ts-aaron-sanchez-can-become-much-jays-5th-starter/

With LaRoche at least tentatively announcing his retirement, EE's value just jumped...whether that's in the form of a trade (unlikely, but possible) or on the free-agent market next off-season. That also makes Smoak and Cola valuable trade chips, I suppose....the next couple of days could be interesting. Just speculating.

I don't think LaRoche affects Edwin in the least, not the same class of player at this current time and no way we trade Edwin/Jose this season due to the fact we're trying to win a world series and 10-5 rights.

Also heading into the offseason...Laroche again isn't in the same planet as Edwin and the fact he completely fell apart at just a few years older than Edwins current age probably hurts Edwin.

I wasn't comparing the two, just observing that since the Jays have 2 pretty good "Plan B" 1B-men in Cola and Smoak, and an incumbent who is in the final year of his contract....like I said, just sort of daydreaming about possibilities.

It's starting to look like Jimenez will not make it through waivers - that sucks - after all these years he finally seems healthy - it's not going to happen but I wish the jays would let him catch Dickey in a spring start to see how it goes - I believe he caught a knuckleballer in the minors a couple of years ago - hopefully, the jays can get something for him because many clubs are looking for a backup.

Agreed that the loss of Jiminez is both likely and unfortunate.  ChinaFan might be right that some roster machinating might be the way to keep the guy a few days past the start of the season, theoretically giving him the best chance to slip through waivers.  But with the state of catching throughout the game, I could see a bunch of teams preferring him to a AAAA vet backup type. 

Pity Thole is out of options at the same time.  According to blue jays banter's options table, he can elect FA if demoted.  What happens to his salary in this scenario? 

Former Jay for a second Rob Rasmussen has retired at the age of 26.  I'm always surprised when guys who have a chance to carve out a niche for themselves retire this young, but good for Rob knowing that he'd rather pursue a business degree. 

yeah, I'd rather lose thole than jimenez

didn't thole pass through waivere last year anyways? nobody would pick him up this year either.

Thole had options last year.  I agree that he mostly has value to us and might pass through waivers easily, but if he could declare FA, that would screw things up if he gets demoted. 

Would love to see him called up and demoted regularly so as to maximize his chances to catch Dickey while maintaining a roster spot for another player, but I can't see a scenario where the FO could make that work.

There is a legal limit to how many times a player can be called up. There is also a minimum time a player must stay when sent down.

Josh Thole is R.A. Dickey's Catcher this year. Anyone's opinion on this does not matter because that will never change. Sorry guys.

Sanchez, Storen, Osuna and Cecil are the best Relievers in the Jay's system. There is absolutely no one their equal anywhere in the Jay's system. If one or maybe two of them go on the DL, the Jays should survive, but if Sanchez is a Starter, then season would be over as the Bullpen wouldn't be good enough.

The Jays are going for it in 2016. How they do determines all future moves of the Jays. Just being good enough is no longer sufficient, the Jays have to be better where it matters. Offense, Defense and the Bullpen matter most. The Rotation matters, but not as much; everything else matters more.

There is a legal limit to how many times a player can be called up. There is also a minimum time a player must stay when sent down.

I know there are rules about the amount of time a player needs to stay in the minors, but I can't recall at the moment - lemme know if you have that info Richard?   I'm not sure that's true about a limit to the number of times you can call someone up?

Thole is totally the backup catcher.  I'm just brainstorming scenarios to allow the club to keep Jiminez.

An effective Sanchez in the rotation is going to be more valuable than an effective Sanchez in the pen.  A top five of Cecil, Osuna, Storen, Floyd and Chavez is just fine IMO. 

"Josh Thole is R.A. Dickey's Catcher this year. Anyone's opinion on this does not matter because that will never change. Sorry guys."

he wasn't last year.

A player on the 40-man roster playing in the minors is on an optional assignment, and within an option season, there is no limit on the numbers of times a club may demote or recall a player. However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window.

-taken from http://chicagocubsonline.com/major-league-baseball-transactions-glossary

Thanks James W.  But Thole is out of options - does that mean he gets outrighted / DFAed when demoted?  There are different rules regarding time in the minors for all the different transactions, I believe, but if anyone can elaborate, please do!

Thole would have to clear waivers to be assigned to the minors. And after 7 days of major league service, he'll have 5 years, so he will be able to refuse an optional assignment... but he's out of options, so he can't be optioned. (I'm now confused...)