And to get ready for spring, I started reading The Summer Game yesterday - should tide me over for a week or so, then I will likely start in on "Best of the Boys of Summer"

Lineup for the first spring training game vs. the Phillies:

Pompey
Ceciliani
Colabello
Smoak
Dominguez
Barney
Carrera
Thole
Izturis

Stroman (with Hutch lingering behind him)

My spring training wish list
- no major injuries
- Sanchez wins a rotation spot ( ideally I wish for a Sanchez/Osuna piggyback)
- The veteran pitching invitees perform so well, it affords the Jays the luxury of having Osuna start in the Buffalo rotation.
- Michael Saunders is healthy and wins the LF spot.
- Junior Lake wins the 4th outfielder spot, allowing Pompey to play everyday in Buffalo - Pompey/Carrera/Brown as the Bisons starting outfield.

heh. I'm the exact opposite, 85.

I'm hoping for vet injuries/underperformance so that Sanchez/Hutch/Pompey all get a starting shot.

Osuna in AAA might be wishful thinking, but I think we are getting to a point where Hutchison and Sanchez starting in AAA is a real possibility. It will depend on the top 5 SP's plus Floyd staying healthy/effective.

I've said before, I like the idea of top prospects starting in the minors and filling holes mid-season. It could be a real shot in the arm some times (like Stroman in 2014), and on top of that the benefit on service time, options, and development are much greater.

Hutchison, Sanchez, and Pompey will get plenty of IP/AB in the Majors in 2016. They don't need to start the year there in order to be valuable, especially if there are vets that can produce in the mean time. If they end up winning spots, then that's a different story, but they shouldn't be the front runners.

I'm hoping for vet injuries

Ah, spring.  When a young man's fancy turns to wistful thoughts of incapacitating pain.

the least painful injuries possible, of course!

Lineup for the first spring training game vs. the Phillies

The starters will get one extra day to work on that vitally important spring tan.

A base tan is immensely important. The last thing you want is to miss time with a sunburn.

Just thinkin'...

In 2015 we had TWELVE guys start games - TWELVE!

Dickey 33 (11W/11L)
Buehrle 32 (15/8)
Estrada 28 (13/8)
Hutch 28 (13/5)
Price 11 (9/1)
Sanchez 11 (7/6) *** (6 wins when starting)
Norris 5 (1/1)
Doubront 4 (1/1)
Stroman 4 (4/0)
Copeland 3 (1/1)
Boyd 2 (0/2)
Redmond 1 (0/0)

In 2016 we HOPE WE can project: (god willin' an' the river don't rise)

Dickey 34 (picks up Redmond's one start)
Estrada 33 (picks up 3 from Copeland and 2 from Boyd)
Stroman 32 (picks up 4 from Stroman and 28 from Hutch)
Happ 32 (picks up 32 from Buehrle)
Sanchez 31 (picks up 11 from Sanchez and 5 from Norris, 11 from Price, 4 from Doubront)

In addition: Chavez and Hutch are around if needed (OR - if they force one of the other guys out OR one of the other guys steps on a sprinkler OR kills himself practicing throwing pick-offs to first)

NOW comes the interesting part:

Will Dickey go 11/11 in 16? Lets give him a 12/10 record
Will Happ match Buehrle's 15/8 record? I very much doubt it. I'd say 12/12 and I'd be glad of it...
Will Estrada get his 13 wins + Boyd's and Copeland's combined 1 wins? Perhaps lets give him 14 wins.
Will Stroman get his 4 wins + Hutch's 13 wins? He just might - give the little guy 17 wins.
Will Sanchez get the 6 wins he had in the 11 games he started (in Apr, May and June) + the 9 Price got + Doubront's 1 win? THIS IS THE KEY - and he might just get 16 or 17 - but 21 is most likely a bridge too far...

SO - I see us getting 72 wins in 2016 from the starters vs. 2015's 75 wins by starters - IF I'm right all those predicting the demise of the Jay's might just get a surprise - 'specially since i see the bullpen as being improved and deeper in 16 than 15. IF Tulo can be the Rockies' Tulo and Travis can be from June(ish) the Travis we know and love - we can be serious contenders!

Champagne anyone? I wonder how it mixes with single malt???

From John Lott's latest article about the Jays bullpen, Osuna says that he wants to be a reliever in 2016, and then see what happens in 2017.

============================

"I told [management] I won't start this year, maybe next one," Osuna said. "I don't think I'm ready 100 percent to be a starter yet because I don't want to worry about my Tommy John, to put my elbow in a risk again. I prefer to be a reliever for at least one more year, throw more innings, like probably 75, 80 innings in the regular season, and then see what happens for next year."

============================

Can't really argue when a player says he prefers a certain role based on how he feels. I would be surprised if they made him a starter in 2017, though. With two years of service in the books by then, and a career high IP total still around 80 (depending on how he finishes in 2016), they might as well keep him in the pen at that point. Sanchez is the one with the innings and willingness to be a SP, so go that route (and it looks like they will).

I don't think I'm ready 100 percent to be a starter yet

Let's not tell Osuna, then, about MyLegacy's plan for 40 starts and 300 innings. Might bring the young man to tears. Or turn him to a life of single malt.

Can't really argue when a player says he prefers a certain role based on how he feels.

I agree, though I still think he profiles as a better starter than Sanchez in the long run based on the pitches he has and, more importantly, his command of those pitches.

The most encouraging part of his response is a desire for increased IP. I'm hoping Storen becomes the default "9th inning guy" and Osuna is used strategically in the highest-leverage situations and for 3-6 outs, which is the more valuable role IMO. I was never really comfortable with Sanchez coming in before Osuna, since he'd often face the bigger inherited mess.

"Champagne anyone? I wonder how it mixes with single malt???"

I don't know about champagne and scotch Mylegacy, but if your tastes include bourbon the seelbach cocktail is a pretty darn good combo of the two.

The service clock ticking on Osuna, but the kid is smart. He will move to the rotation if you give him a multi-year contract.

For the time being, I think it's ideal. Osuna can be moved off the closer role "to push him and give him more innings".
Let the guy on a contract year rack up the saves and maybe he'll even be worth a QO.

Not to reopen this well-hashed debate, but Jim Bowden' assessment of the Jays' off-season (ESPN Insider) is one that uglyone will agree with: "The Blue Jays decided to not bid on David Price despite the fact he desperately wanted to come back and would have returned for probably less than what he signed for with the Red Sox."

Bowden called the team's off-season "disappointing" and gave it the lowest of the grades he handed out (C-). Time will tell whether his preference for stars and scrubs would have been more productive than Shapiro's strategy of (fewer) stars and deeper depth.

I thought the same, Vulg, till I saw that he actually threw 69.2 innings in 2015, so Osuna probably wasn't thinking of a role change with a large usage increase from last year. More like an extra out or two here and there.

Chapman gets 30 days suspension.  Seems light to me.

On the plus side, the 30-day suspension means that the Yankees won't gain an extra year of control over him. He'll be a free agent after 2016.

Ken Rosenthal's take:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/new-york-yankees-aroldis-chapman-suspended-30-days-mlb-domestic-abuse-policy-030116

I believe that was a big part of why MLB chose 30. The MLB didn't want to reward the Yankees for taking advantage of domestic abuse to gain another year of control of an ace closer.

Well, and having a suspension long enough to delay free agency would have pretty much guaranteed an appeal.

"I agree, though I still think he profiles as a better starter than Sanchez in the long run based on the pitches he has and, more importantly, his command of those pitches."


Agreed. Osuna definitely has the repertoire to be a starter, while Sanchez only has one plus pitch that he has trouble commanding as a SP (to this point), but it is what it is. Osuna was a long shot to be able to handle a SP workload this season, and even if he wanted to start, it likely would have been in the minors given his innings limitations. His development as a SP was definitely stunted with the 2015 promotion. Now the team just has to find a way to maximize his value. Clearly he is more valuable to the 2016 team in the pen. That value might change in 2017 depending on what direction the team is heading in. If they win in 2016, and want to keep winning in 2017, then they might just bite the bullet and keep him in the pen. If they want to take a step back in 2017, then that's when they can be more creative with his role.

I'm looking forward to seeing how an Osuna-Cecil-Storen trio looks at the end of games. If everyone pitches like they are capable of, then Gibbons can manage the pen like Ned Yost does.

"....His development as a SP was definitely stunted with the 2015 promotion...."

Except that Osuna himself is saying that he's only able to pitch 80 innings maximum this season, because of lingering Tommy John concerns etc.   If that's true, he couldn't be a starting pitcher in the minors or anywhere this year or last year.  So he wasn't "stunted" by his promotion last season -- the Jays simply put him in the place where he would have the greatest value to the organization.

As Osuna himself says, by next season he will have put enough distance between himself and the Tommy John surgery that he could be ready for a greater innings workload.  But putting him in the minors last season couldn't have accelerated that process.  (Unless you think the minor-league innings require much less effort, and therefore he could have doubled his workload last season and been a starter for 140 innings -- which I think is implausible, because you still have to pitch at full effort, whether you're in the minors or the majors.)

If anyone wants to do some detective work:  who the heck are these guys called "Mier" and "Adams" who keep popping up in the Jays lineup this week?  I was able to recognize most of the prospects who played in yesterday's game and are again in the lineup today, but those two have stumped me.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sign-kotchman-mier-adams-to-minor-league-deals/

Thanks!

If Osuna had stayed in the minors he'd probably have finished last year in AA and started this year in AA again, with a midseason bump to AAA and potential september callup, and in the mix to crack the mlb rotation at the start of 2017. we'll see if he's delayed that at all.

For fellow Beantown love-haters, you might enjoy this spoof, called Spawtlight: The Horrible Truth About Boston

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIFepDzQsbE&nl=cooking&em_pos=large&emc=edit_ck_20160302

"It's a culture-less suburb, filled with 20-story office buildings, Irish pubs, and self-righteous white people”.

Josh Ruben is in it.   (There are a couple of Red Sox caps/shirts in it, so this post is as relevant to baseball as can be.)

Good old spring when you see players you've never heard of before playing for the home team.

If Osuna was a SP in the minors last season, then they could have monitored his innings and workload. So he could have finished the season with ~100 innings as a starter, but it could have been in a situation where he was pitching every 5th day and developing his secondary stuff rather than one inning bullpen stints where he was pitching more frequently (not to mention any games he warmed up and didn't actually pitch).

If he started 2015 in the minors, I highly doubt it would have been as a RP. So in that sense, the innings probably would have been similar (a shade under 80 counting the playoffs in the bigs vs. around 100 in the minors), but the roles would have been different, and the transition to the bigs would have been different as well.

I agree with the reasoning that he's better off in the pen in 2016, though. I would have flirted with the idea of starting him in the minors in 2016 (for development purposes only), but if he himself is not comfortable with that workload, then just let him pitch in relief.

My dose of spring training homer optimism: Dickey's knee meniscus cleanup is a big deal and takes away a whole bunch of pain that was affecting his performance the last couple years.

"....it could have been in a situation where he was pitching every 5th day and developing his secondary stuff...."

I agree that Osuna could have had more time to develop his secondary pitches if he was a minor-league starter.  But there's a trade-off here.  By pitching in the majors, even as a reliever, Osuna has the incredible advantage of learning how to get major-league hitters out.  For a 20-year-old, that's a huge learning experience, far superior to anything he could learn in the minors.  And to some extent, he can still develop his secondary pitches in the majors -- Osuna is known for using a diversity of pitches in the majors, even in a relatively short outing. 

We could argue endlessly about which is the better route to a major-league rotation, but clearly there are advantages and disadvantages in either route.  I personally think Osuna is gaining invaluable experience by learning how to beat major-league hitters, and I don't believe he is losing his ability to work on secondary pitches, which he is still doing now and can still do in the future.

If we agree that Osuna would have had approximately the same number of innings in 2015 and 2016, regardless of whether he was a starter or reliever, then the only question is how best to spend those limited number of innings.  Mastering the art of retiring the best major-league hitters is a pretty good way to spend that time, in my opinion.

Osuna pitch type:

FB 72% (this includes up to 3 different pitches imo)
SL 14%
CH 14%

he was working on his secondary stuff last year. and we saw significant improvement in his slider in particular over the course of the season imo.

J Key was older than Osuna when he spent his rookie year in the pen. Also CJ Wilson of LAA spent a few years in the pen before moving into the rotation.

I believe the pen will not hurt Osuna becoming a good starter. I hope so anyway.

Today's public service announcement: During spring training Gameday does not give accurate pitch counts. Every strikeout is recorded as three pitches, every walk as four and everything else as one.

maybe I'm reading the box wrong but it looks like Thole got yanked after 2 dickey innings even though he hadn't even got to hit yet.

@bnicholsonsmith
Aaron Sanchez gets three grounders, two Ks in first spring inning. Fastball 95-98. Mixed in curve, change. #BlueJays

The key stat on Sanchez today:  no walks allowed in his 2 innings.

Thole also caught (some of) yesterdays game.

Sanchez with 3 K's, 0 walks, and 1 (apparently mammoth) HR allowed in 2 innings.

Richard Urena, who was a teenager as recently as last week, got 2 solid hits in 2 plate appearances today and made some excellent defensive plays at shortstop.  I wonder how close he is to the majors? 

The game finished in a 4-4 tie.

Watch Urena's K rate this year.  It has been rising as he moves up through the system (and with the rising K rate has been falling OBP).  The reasonable best case scenario is that he holds his own in A ball this year and advances to the high minors next year.  The club needs to go slow with him.  With Tulo and Goins around, there is no need to rush. 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-draw-phillies-in-spring-training-home-opener/

Sanchez up to 218lbs from 194lbs last year.

Dickey suffered a "bucket tear" of his meniscus in his 4th start last year, and gained 12lbs after that. Now he's lost the extra weight.

#bestshapeoftheirlives

About improving hitting performance of a veteran -- to get a value from him in trade, would he be given a finite number of PA in spring training and sent to minor league camp or sent to the Double-A or Triple-A after the spring training wrapping up? Similar to a prospect, the parent team does not count on him to contribute right away to the MLB league team but how shall the parent team assess his progress ? In 2014, the Jays let Tuiasosopo go after 3 months from late March to mid June. EE, Colabello, JoeyBats had found nice careers with the Jays? Are their success from sustainable or some kinds of player development formulae can be derived ?

So what's the general Box opinion on roster battles?

(and no fence sitting allowed).

1. Who is our #5 SP?
2. Who is our starting LF?
3. Who is our bench OF?
4. Who are our #5, #6, #7 RP?

I hate to be smart, but the answer to all these questions is "too early to tell". Nobody is the starting left-fielder, or the #5 starter yet and there is a whole month left of events yet to happen.  Surely last spring was reminder enough of that.  I hope that Pompey is the starting left-fielder, but whether he is or not will likely depend on the state of Saunders' health. 

Gavin Floyd gets the start today.  It is interesting that the club is using him in this way at the outset.  Personally, I hope that he ends up back in the pen for the sake of his arm.

This interesting piece by Eno Sarris on the aging patterns of ground-ball pitchers had me thinking about the careers of Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman.

#5 starter (after Stroman/Dickey/Estrada/Happ) - Sanchez, with Hutch in Buffalo

LF - Saunders start the year, wouldn't surprise me if Pompey ends the season with more games played

Bench OF - Carrera, if only for the lefty bat

RP (after Storen/Osuna/Cecil/Chavez) - Floyd, Tepera, Loup

Hard to answer those questions on March 3. Is Floyd healthy? Is Saunders healthy? How does Sanchez's secondary stuff look? What's Soriano's FB velocity? Do the Jays plan on working out a deal with the Giants for Biagini or will they be forced to keep him on the 25-man roster? How does Hutchison look? And so on.

I think Saunders starts the year in LF, gets hurt and Dom Brown will be our LF but he'll start as the 4th OFer. 5th rotation guy will be Sanchez, with Hutch in Buffalo.

doesn't that fence hurt, SK/Mike?

I expect Gavin Floyd to be the 5th Starter, if he stays healthy. Shapiro and Company have seen what he can do and of those pitching well, he's favoured. Otherwise he's in the Bullpen where he's shown to be effective. I expect Jesse Chavez as prime alternative if Gavin is not chosen. The Jays don't acquire him if he's not as advertised. Otherwise he's in the Bullpen where he's needed. Drew Hutchison needs to work on a lot under live pitching. I don't think it will happen fast enough in Spring Training. I think he's AAA-bound. As a last resort Aaron Sanchez makes this Rotation. Only when and if everyone else fails can he succeed. I expect him to be a multi-inning Reliever in 2016, building up enough innings to be a Starter in 2017.

I fully believe that when Michael Saunders was given a contract, the decision was made. That Jay Bruce nonsense was all about the 2017 option, nothing more. Saunders was acquired because of the changes he made in 2014, those don't go away. Options for backup Outfielder are Ezequiel Carerra, Junior Lake, Darrell Ceciliani and Dominic Brown. Whoever is the best CF defender gets the job. There is no way Dalton Pompey makes the Roster because I don't think he's the primary option now., he's a last resort option. He needs full time at bats in AAA, because he's not getting them here. Anthony Alford makes the Roster full time long before Pompey does.

I believe that good enough. Good primary choices are available. Acceptable backups who can play at this level can be chosen. Good quality depth is available if needed. I think it's been a long time since I could say that. Of course, Shapiro and Company could very well do something different, but this what I expect. In 2013 and 2014 crushing bad luck derailed any hope of competing. In 2015 the Jays lost their Ace and sparkling their new Left Fielder for basically all the season. Lost a quality Starter for months and their starting 2B for most of the season. Had three of their budding Rookies fail at their jobs very quickly. That wasn't any better luck-wise. At some point in time the pendulum swings back and better luck ensues. I expect 2016 to be that year.

Dodgers famously let Greinke go this offseason, and spread his money out on a greater number of lesser and riskier pitchers, in suppprt of Risk Management.

Brett Anderson was probably slotted in as the #3 out of a good 10 or 11 possible SP, but he (unsurprisingly) is out with injury for 5 months. He joins at least 3 or 4 other potential SP with serious injuries already. Ryu, McCarthy, and Montas are all out for months still, while Maeda's physicals showed elbow concerns.

This strategy is starting to look riskier by the day.

imo fascinating article saying that maybe Bill James was right about groundball pitchers all along....

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-ground-ball-pitchers-actually-are-a-bad-bet/

I don't know if any pitching plan that has Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, and Brandon Beachy in it can be called Risk Management anymore than buying 20 lottery tickets can be called Portfolio Management.

Unfortunate outcomes don't invalidate a sound process. Yes, the Dodgers look like they run the risk of not having a very good staff, but if by "this" you mean that The Jays FO going down a similar road, the two are completely unrelated.

SP - Stro, Marco/RA/JA, Chavez

LF - Saunders

4th OF - Pompey

RP - Storen/Osuna/Cecil/Sanchez, Floyd, Loup, I don't know/care

ugyone, would the opposite strategy (overpay for Greinke) look really risky if his physicals showed elbow concerns?

So much for Risk Management, Brett Anderson is out 3-6 months with back surgery. Their rotation just got weaker.

The Dodgers should have re-signed Greinke in addition to acquiring their current group of SPs.

But they are cheap.

=)

I hope Sanchez is #5 sp. Unless Chavez is better than him, then I hope Chavez is #5 sp. Problem is: I just don't know who's good.

JamesW - absolutely you have to sign the right players to those big deals. Not that there's ever zero risk.

I'm just not sure on average if 1 expensive stud + buncha cheapo gambles is any more risky than 2-3 medium contract types.

Spifficus - but that's exactly why these types are cheap enough to allow a team to spread one elite contract over 2-3 of these types - a spottier, riskier, track record. That's what the Risk Management strategy does.

Here are my guesses on uglyone's four questions:

5th starter -- Sanchez
Left field -- Saunders
4th outfielder -- I think Gibby likes Carrera, so it's probably him, but personally I'd prefer Brown or Lake
Bullpen -- Osuna, Storen, Cecil, Chavez, Loup, Floyd, Soriano.

christaylor - I'll try to keep the jays out of it. This Risk Management strategy has become extremely popular amongst sabertypes and I think it might be based on flawed or incomplete assumptions, and on analysis which undervalued elite performers on certain teams in order to praise their apparent depth strategy (i.e. 2013 red sox).

I think it's a crucial issue and I wish I had the chops to figure out how to analyze it properly. But fairly analyzing depth is an extremely tough experiment even to conceptualize.

Jason Stark ran a piece today on the Jays' D potentially being the best in baseball and now reporters and royals fans are going at him on twitter. interesting stuff.

On something John Northey mentioned when the Jays jerseys were announced on the Jays not having names on ST jersey's -- I have the PHI-HOU game on today and both teams have names on their jerseys. Just one data point, but I hope the Jays get names on the jerseys for their spring televised games.

too early to speculate too much on all these roster decisions especially in pen.

The things I most strongly suspect are:

Chavez is 5th starter
Sanchez is in pen
Hutch is in Buffalo
Pompey is in Buffalo
Loup is in Buffalo

I also think another trade (or trades) is/are possible before the season starts
Lake is 4th OF

Floyd a good possibility for pen

First injury of spring: Loup with forearm issues.

Instead of Greinke, they spread it over Kazmir, McCarthy, Maeda, etc.

Risk management.

Jason Stark ran a piece today on the Jays' D potentially being the best in baseball

Jason Stark has his place (typically that one column at the end of the year highlighting all the weird crap I missed). So does Ken Rosenthal (sniffing out trades). Neither should be in the analysis business, however, as they are in over their heads. Not quite Buck and Pat talking math, but pretty damn close.

if that's their concept of risk management, then they're really bad at it. It looks like more of a cumulative upside play, which is fine, but it's certainly riskier.

I have hope for Hutch being the #5 starter. That means he came to camp ready. I think he is the best pitcher fighting for the position and Sanchez is really valuable in the pen.

I think the Jays are in win this year and that is it. They are not likely to keep both Bautista and EE. Osuna will stay up and get his inning in TO.

I don't think Anderson and McCarthy getting hurt should be used to evaluate any strategy. That outcome for those two was inevitable based on their history. How does that factor into risk management?

Also, McCarthy was signed prior to 2015, not this past off-season, and Anderson accepted the QO (I don't think that was the outcome the Dodgers had in mind when they offered it). Neither pitcher was 'diversifying risk' in lieu of signing Greinke. Kazmir makes $13M in 2016 and Maeda has a weird contract where he makes $3M guaranteed per season with a ton of incentives. Greinke has a record $34M AAV. They needed SP's to replace Greinke. That's not an unusual team building philosophy.

The Royals spent money on depth in the rotation the past two years (Volquez, Medlen, Young, Blanton, Vargas, etc) and have two consecutive WS appearances, and they continued that with Kennedy, Minor, and re-signing Young this off-season.

Every team would rather have a superstar, but it comes at a cost. If that cost is not reasonable, or too big of a risk, then you go another direction. The cost of free agency has skyrocketed. You have to build the way that best utilizes your payroll.

If the question is, "who will be the opening day LF, starters and pen assuming good health", I have guesses.  I don't see how useful that is, though.  It reflects not my opinion about the best thing to do, but my assessment of how the organization will likely use the talent on hand.  In answer to that hypothetical:

LF- Saunders
SP- Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Dickey, Chavez
RP- Storen, Osuna, Cecil, Sanchez, Loup, Floyd,  and (wild guess) Penny
fourth OF- Lake

I rush to say that it's not what I would do.

If everyone is healthy, then my preferred answers to ugly's questions would be:

LF: Saunders
SP5: Chavez or Floyd (the other becomes swing man)
Pen: Storen-Cecil-Osuna-Soriano-Loup-Biagini-Floyd/Chavez
4th OF: Lake or Carrera (take your pick)

Having Pompey, Hutchison, and Sanchez in AAA ready to fill holes when applicable is the type of luxury the team should be striving for. I know that won't be popular to some, but that's what I'd do.

If Loup is injured, Venditte looks like a good replacement.

I'm with Lylemcr - I want Hutch to take the fifth rotation spot.  I have a perversely high degree of faith in him.  I'm also with Mike Green - I think the club will likely go with Chavez.  Service time yada yada.

I think Saunders is the LF without question, and I like Lake's upside more than the rest, so he's my pick for 4th OF.

If Loup recovers quickly, I see the pen with him, Sanchez, Osuna, Storen, Cecil, Floyd and the 7th man is a real crapshoot.  Biagini is my best guess at this point, but it's him over Delebar in a coin toss.

10-8 Jays win today with Cole, McFarland, Dragmire and Hernandez getting beat up a bit out of the pen.  Smoak and Fields with HRs.

ah, spring training.

 

Is there really a competition for LF? I see an opening only if Saunders is on the DL.
Pompey probably gets playing time in Buffalo waiting for that to happen.
Lake is on the 40 roster and bats right. Probably the best option to rest Saunders regularly.

Floyd to the pen.
Sanchez needs to start at least half the year, might be better to do that in  AAA, service clock and all.
Hutch could earn the spot and Chavez could be the long man, or Chavez could get the nod and Hutch start in Buffalo. That one is hard to call.
Chavez seems to be good for only the first half. Might be harder to send Hutch down once the season starts.
I imagine Shapiro getting daily calls about Hutch if he's dominating AAA.

I'd like Loup to impress at AAA before he comes back.
Biagini could work well in a huge pen.
I'm not particularly worried about the pen.
I think it will be very good but somehow will manage to blow many leads in April.

I hear Floyd looked pretty good today.

Floyd is a long shot to stay healthy enough to start, but if he somehow does, then he's an intriguing #5 option. Even after all the injuries, he's been good every time he's actually pitched. For the sake of his career, he's probably better off transitioning into a reliever, but he wants to start, and the Jays obviously benefit if he can start, so give it a shot. If he remains healthy but doesn't win a rotation spot, then he'll certainly have value in a swing man role (similar to Joe Blanton last year). Though, let's see if he makes it to April with his arm still in tact.

As far as Loup's replacement if he has to miss time, I don't think it necessarily has to be a LH. Just put the best bullpen arm in that spot, lefty or righty. Gibbons has innings 7-9 covered. He doesn't need a LOOGY. Just give him relievers who can get guys out. I'd rather take a chance on one of the out of options guys (ex. Leon) than waste a spot on a 'one batter' reliever.

In the First inning, every time Gavin Floyd threw a pitch he slipped. In the Second, the problem didn't exist so he pitched better. All in all, he pitched very well. If you have the MLB App, listening to Spring Training games is free. You still just have to log in once anyway, but it costs nothing.

Recalling that JoeyBats was first given leadoff before his power surge. So if Chavez has been good for first half, let him have a role as a starter, long man or whatnots. Then If Hutch or Sanchez`performance, Chavez performance can earn the Jays a good trade return, like Valencia of last season; FWIW, Valencia was DFA'ed.

What I'd like to see:

5th starter: Chavez
Left fielder: Pompey (I have no confidence in Saunders and would have traded him already)
4th outfielder: Brown (Best LH option available)
Bullpen: Storen, Cecil, Osuna, Sanchez, Loup, Floyd, Soriano

Best guess at what will actually happen:

5th starter: Sanchez
Left fielder: Saunders
4th outfielder: Lake
Bullpen: Storen, Cecil, Osuna, Venditte (Loup on DL), Chavez, Floyd, Biagini (Soriano not ready in time)

Another potential question is backup catcher. I don't think it's a given than Thole gets the job, I can imagine Tony Sanchez taking it. Tho I hope that only happens if Sanchez shows he can deal with the knuckleball, Martin is too valuable to subject to the abuse.

"....I don't think it's a given than Thole gets the job, I can imagine Tony Sanchez taking it..."

I agree that the Jays need a better hitter than Thole as the back-up catcher.  But if Sanchez was being auditioned as Dickey's catcher, I think we would have seen reports of it by now.  Dickey has been in camp for more than a week, and I haven't seen any reports that he's spending any additional time with Sanchez -- whereas last year there were many reports of Martin practising the art of catching the knuckleball.  I don't see Sanchez being ahead of Thole at this point, although I could be wrong and it might yet happen.

Dickey seems excited to be pitching to Thole again, and Shapiro mentioned (on McCown's show) that he wasn't worried about Martin/Thole, but he was worried about options available if Martin got hurt. It would make more sense for the team to give Sanchez everyday AB's in the minors and then call him up to play everyday in case Martin had to miss time. Thole is not good, but at the end of the day Dickey is an asset that they will have to get the most out of, and if the wear and tear of catching him is too much for Martin, then just go with Thole every 5th day. There's too much invested in Martin and to a lesser extent Dickey to worry about back-up catcher performance. Martin should not have caught Dickey last season either, IMO.

In the hopeful spring department, Thole has apparently revamped his swing and is hitting the ball over the fence regularly in BP.  I am hopeful of a Whitt-like emergence from him.  It sometimes takes several years to fully recover from a concussion (or as it is now called "mild traumatic brain injury").  Thole is a solid guy and had a stretch in Buffalo where he was driving the ball with regularity.  I still think he has it in him if he can learn to pull the ball. 

Maicer Izturis has announced that he is retiring.  That's fine -- the Jays have plenty of infield depth these days. 

And the news on Loup is okay -- no ligament damage, just a tendon strain.  He might not be ready for opening day, but that would allow the Jays to keep another reliever on the roster, put Loup on the DL for a week or two, or even give him some minor-league time, allowing them to keep an extra reliever who might otherwise be lost.

"....Thole is a solid guy and had a stretch in Buffalo where he was driving the ball with regularity...."

Yes, we remember you touting Thole's hitting skills in almost daily posts on this forum in April and May of 2013, when Thole was hitting an impressive .893 OPS at Buffalo.  Then he was promoted to Toronto and stunk the joint out.

On the other hand, it's actually true: Thole has been a decent hitter in the past.  In his first 3 seasons with the Mets, from the ages of 22 to 24, he managed a .350 OBP and a .707 OPS.  If he can repeat those numbers, he could certainly be in the Jays lineup more often than once a week.

The auditions to replace Aaron Loup began yesterday, with Venditte's good outing, and they continue today with Girodo, McCoy, Diamond and LeBlanc all tentatively slated to pitch or to be available to pitch.  Today's game is televised, if anyone wants to watch and report back.

The starting lineup today looks more like a possible opening day lineup minus Bautista and Encarnacion.  Pillar leads off followed by Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Martin and Smoak.  Pompey and Goins bat 8-9. 

As long as Dickey is on the active roster, Thole is a given as the second catcher.

"Having Pompey, Hutchison, and Sanchez in AAA ready to fill holes when applicable is the type of luxury the team should be striving for. I know that won't be popular to some, but that's what I'd do."

not to belabour the point, but i still struggke to understand why we wouldn't want the best players to play, and the lesser players to be on reserve, no matter who that turns out to be.

especially since you don't want kids' playing time and development subject to the vagaries of injuries, anyways.

"In the hopeful spring department, Thole has apparently revamped his swing and is hitting the ball over the fence regularly in BP. "

yeah looking at his milb numbers, both topline and underlying, at age appropriate levels, it's tough to figure how thole has been so bad at the plate that it's hard to even stomach him as a backup catcher.

What I would do (assuming plausibly good health):
LF- Pompey
4th OF- Saunders
SP- Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Dickey, Chavez
RP- Storen, Osuna, Cecil, Sanchez, Floyd and (whoever looks best in the spring for the last two spots)

I would have Sanchez paired up with Happ and taking over after 5 innings (and potentially going the rest of the game).  I am assuming that Saunders' knee injury will restrict his mobility and ability to throw well but that he is able to hit. 

"not to belabour the point, but i still struggke to understand why we wouldn't want the best players to play, and the lesser players to be on reserve, no matter who that turns out to be."


Well, there has to a disparity in talent. For example, if Hutchison was a projected 1 or 2 wins better than Chavez, then I would agree with you that you take Hutchison in that scenario. However, I'd argue that Chavez gives the team a better chance to win than Sanchez or Hutch at the moment, and Saunders (while I don't trust his knee) is a bounce back candidate if he's not damaged. I'm fine with going with the vets in this case because there's a pretty solid chance that the vets could produce as much or more than the youngsters, and in scenarios like that, having the depth takes priority, IMO. The young players have options, while the vets don't, so why not use them?

When you have so much faith in young talent that you prioritize playing them over depth/options/service time/etc, then it becomes a situation like Norris, Pompey, Castro, Sanchez, and Osuna last season. One of those four panned out, but the others didn't even combine for half a win before they were demoted or got hurt.

I'd rather have Pompey start in AAA, come up during the season, and then never lose his spot after that rather than count on him to start right away and not get the intended results. It's a risk in both cases but less risky to take advantage of the option years and call him up when a need arises. Of course, if he shows he is ready in ST and Saunders is hobbling along, then you improvise from there, but again, I'm going on the assumption that everyone is healthy.

Mike, I know you've advocated the tandem start concept for a while now, and while I don't see it happening, I do think this particular club would be the best time for it since I first recall you floating the idea.

Several of our pitchers have more serious times through the order penalties than typical - Dickey and Happ, Chavez too I believe - come to mind - and we have two young starters in the pen who need to build up their innings. Shapiro and co. do seem to be interested in creatively optimizing the team ...

I think the concussion he suffered in his last season with the Mets has been a factor. Maybe he will never be the same as he was better then. That said, his numbers are not any worse than many back up catchers. I think that the Thole hate that pops up everywhere from time to time is way overdone. I think Sanchez will be at Buffalo and would come up to start if Martin injured.

"then it becomes a situation like Norris, Pompey, Castro, Sanchez, and Osuna last season"

all due respect but 2 of those 6 were key members of our 1st place team last year. and a 3rd may easily have been if we showed as much patience in him as we did with vets.

the kids gave us more valuable depth than the reclaims did last year.

I thought the issue with sanchez was his arm. thought he just couldn't stop the running game at all.

Good article today from Shi Davidi about bullpen hopeful Ben Rowen and his pitching mechanics broken down in a series of nice photos.

Yeah I don't get the hate for Thole either. Do people really expect much from a backup catcher? I'm not sure where one would find this information, but I would guess that the backup catcher is almost always the worst hitter on any team, pitchers excluded. Having a starting caliber backup catcher like Navarro is unusual. Having a light hitting catcher like Thole is normal. He's a fine fielder, and a passable if totally unexciting backup catcher.

My guess is that people get too worried about injuries. Yeah, they happen. But you're never going to replace an all-star with another all-star, particularly behind the plate. If Martin goes down, it's going to hurt no matter what.

"all due respect but 2 of those 6 were key members of our 1st place team last year. and a 3rd may easily have been if we showed as much patience in him as we did with vets."


Osuna, yes. However, Sanchez was a poor starter (5.21 FIP) and good/not great reliever (3.58 FIP, 5.12 K/9). I know there are not many Liam Hendriks fans here, but if you gave Hendriks all of Sanchez's 2015 BP innings and simply used Cecil and Lowe more in the 7th/8th, would there really have been any difference?

Travis made sense because he was older and more developed. The others were massive reaches, IMO.


"the kids gave us more valuable depth than the reclaims did last year."

I argued that Estrada should have been in the rotation from day 1 last season. Instead it went to Norris/Sanchez. Luckily, Estrada was the swing man so he could take the open spot and run with it when it opened up, but if Estrada started the year in the rotation and Norris/Sanchez were in AAA in case of need, wouldn't that tick every box as far as being beneficial to the team (saving options, service time, development, depth, etc)?

It's just a difference of philosophy, I guess. I like having the kids in the minors to start the year, preserve that extra year of control while getting them full-time AB's/IP, and then call them up mid-season when the team has a need or needs a jolt. Stroman in 2014 (aside from his weird 2 week relief stint) was AA's best work as far as promoting a prospect, IMO.

Happ's command looked pretty good today - Martin didn't have to move his glove a whole lot. That's a refreshing change from the Happ we've seen in the past, that was often missing his spots by a plate width.

Happ is going to be interesting to watch this year. Expecting the 3.3 WAR starter he was in 2015 might be pushing it, but it's possible he's better than the 1 WAR starter he was prior to that.

If Loup is injured, Venditte looks like a good replacement.

I'm rooting for Venditte, just because it will be fun to watch a switch-pitcher. But he has a weakness: switch-hitters beat him up. From his Baseball Reference page:

• Against LHB as LHP: .116 BA, .191 OBP, .256 SLG
• Against RHB as RHP: .205 BA, .295 OBP, .282 SLG
• Against RHB as LHP: .391 BA, .444 OBP, .826 SLG (4 doubles and 2 HR in 23 AB)

It looks like he always pitched as a lefty against switch-hitters, unless the Baseball Reference page is broken.

"....Do people really expect much from a backup catcher?...."

But even among back-up catchers, Thole ranks among the worst.  Last year, measured by wRC+ among all catchers with 50 plate appearances or more, Thole ranked 66 out of 76 in the majors.   If you consider the last 3 seasons (his entire Blue Jay career) by the same measurement, Thole ranked 84th out of 110 catchers in the majors.  (He ranks even lower by fWAR.)

Nobody expects Thole to be a great hitter, and it wouldn't be reasonable to expect that.  But if he could rank among the average back-up catchers, it would be better for the Jays.  Right now his hitting ranks behind even marginal catchers such as Arencibia, Kratz and Quintero (as measured by the last 3 seasons).

China, the stat you chose )any catcher over 50 ABs) doesn't really represent what you're saying because it includes starting catchers. Assuming all 30 starting catchers hit better than Thole (a safe bet given his performance in recent years) then Thole would instead have been 36th out of 46 last year, and 54th of 80 over the last three.

Those still aren't great numbers, but they do show that despite his poor offensive (especially last year, in an extremely small sample size) he's far from the worst option. And that doesn't include his value as a fielder, which appears to be good even before accounting for his skills at catching the knuckleball. He certainly beats out the likes of Arencibia and Kratz when that's considered.

Plus, while his good offensive performances are indeed in the distant past, the albeit small potential that he could hit close to the league average, with above average OBPs as he did in '09, '10, and '11 give him an edge over other backups with a clear ceiling.

Anyways, that's a lot of words about Josh Thole. Needless to say I don't think he's a problem. The fact that Dickey likes him is probably a good enough reason to keep him. And who knows, maybe his revamped swing is for real! He may be in the best shape of his life...

Everyone forget one thing, Thole catches Dickey and rarely hits in another game. Russell Martin got beat up regularly catching Dickey and his offensive numbers really suffered. Thole is capable of good Offense if not catching Dickey. And with a day off or two after catching Dickey could give reasonably Offense. Just check his NY Mets stats.

Nobody expects Thole to be a great hitter, and it wouldn't be reasonable to expect that.  But if he could rank among the average back-up catchers, it would be better for the Jays.

It actually does not matter. Even when Thole was catching a Cy Young winner, he wasn't even worth 1 WAR.

I hear Floyd looked pretty good today.

I heard the opposite. He was all over the place in the first inning with full counts after full counts and threw 30 pitches, than in the second inning he was down the middle and everybody  made contact.

If Thole catches Dickey once a week for an average of 6 innings, that will mean he rarely has more than 3 or 4 AB's per week. In this lineup, honestly, who cares?

It is hard to keep up with all the new guys. At times I am not sure who they are.

I am very content and confident with the veterans like Magpie, Gerry and J Northy to name 3. But there are so many others.

I am keenly following some of the rookies like SK. Uglyone is now a valuable and reliable veteran.

My memory is fading. Bit I look forward to the input of Lugnut Fan, Nigel and Mamboon.

2016 is a go for it year for the Jays. Buffalo is a massive bench. The rest of the farm is a nursery I suppose.

My thanks to all. Cheers!!!!

I'm rooting for Venditte... It looks like he always pitched as a lefty against switch-hitters, unless the Baseball Reference page is broken.

Amusing guy, for sure.

Lefty against switch-hitter makes perfect sense. Venditte is better as a lefty and it's the better side to hold runners. Now mind you, most switch-hitters are better on the right side facing left handed pitchers, but the split is usually not 100 points.

CF, I do realize that any improvement, even if small, can have an impact.

My question is: where does he rank on the list of catchers who can catch a knuckleball effectively? Not that many knucklers around, maybe he's 10th out of 12 or some other small number? How do we even know? How many catchers in the league have caught at least 100 innings of a knuckler? The point being: if we exchange him with a much better hitting catcher who can't catch the knuckler well and has 3-5 passed balls every game, that loss in defense might negate 50 pts of OPS gain, due to not that many ABs over the season. Not saying we can't do better, but it's not necessarily easy to identify catchers who
1) can catch the knuckleball at least as well as Thole (or better)
2) can hit better than Thole
3) are actually available, and not some other team's starting/backup catcher already
4) wouldn't cost that much more than Thole

If a switch-hitter faces a switch-pitcher, who gets to choose what side they hit/pitch from last before a pitch is thrown?

If a switch-hitter faces a switch-pitcher

Mayhem like this resulted in the Pat Venditte Rule.

The point remains that if you need Thole to hit for Dickey to win games, than it's Dickey that needs to be replaced. The last years, Dickey has spent a lot of times with new catchers during spring and has had trouble commanding his knuckleball during April and May. He seems very happy to be focusing on himself this year.

"....If Thole catches Dickey once a week for an average of 6 innings, that will mean he rarely has more than 3 or 4 AB's per week...."

I don't want to give anyone the impression that I believe this is a huge issue.  Of course it's not.  It's a small issue, a small problem, especially in a lineup as powerful as the Jays lineup. But I don't think it should be trivialized as a meaningless issue either.   Russell Martin, like most starting catchers, has averaged 120 games for the past 6 seasons. And he didn't play every inning of those 120 games either.  So we're taking about what to do with 40 games per season, plus the additional plate appearances when Martin doesn't play the whole game.  That's not nothing.  And then there's the question of what happens if Martin gets a serious injury, which is not impossible.  So it's a significant number of plate appearances per season.  I agree that some of those plate appearances need to go to Thole because it allows Martin to focus on issues other than the knuckleball.  But should all of those 40 games (plus additional PAs) go entirely to Thole?

In two of the past three seasons, Thole's OPS was .497 or less.  I don't know how to get the data easily, but I'm quite sure that a .497 OPS is worse than the average back-up catcher, and I know it's worse than what the Jays could find from another back-up catcher. No matter how optimistic you might be about the chances of Thole getting better (which is conceivable), they can't count on it, and it's probably not likely, after seeing what he did in two of the past three seasons.

My initial suggestion was that the Jays should keep Navarro.  They didn't do that.  Okay, fine, maybe they couldn't afford the $4-million for Navarro this year.  (If that was the sole reason for failing to keep Navarro, it's an example of how the owners aren't providing an adequate payroll, because it's really not  a lot of money.)  Alternatively, maybe they don't have the space in the lineup -- but that's also not completely logical, because someone like Justin Smoak seems somewhat surplus at this point, with Colabello perfectly adequate at 1B.  The Jays could have had DH and 1B covered by Encarnacion, Colabello and Navarro, and that would have allowed Navarro to take some of the non-Dickey catching appearances that Thole will inevitably be taking this year. And as an added bonus, it wouldn't have changed the payroll at all (since Smoak is getting almost $4-million this year).  If the 3rd catcher is also the back-up DH and pinch-hitter, it allows the Jays to keep all 3 of their catchers much fresher than if they had two catchers.  That would be good for Martin too.

Bringing in Robinzon Diaz to cure the Thole detest ?

Okay, fine, maybe they couldn't afford the $4-million for Navarro this year.

Had the Jays made a similar offer, it's possible that Navarro would have elected to leave anyway for the opportunity to get more playing time (which is good on its own, and has the added benefit of positioning him for a bigger payday in 2017).

I haven't given up on Jimenez yet, btw.

Another reason for him to win the job - Pat Venditte's Pitch f/x game charts on fangraphs look like a Rocharch test.

Thole had better framing numbers than Martin last year.
Dickey had a horrible start and was 3-9 on July 4.
He caught up to end the year 11-11, but Thole caught a lot of those games.
Why would you want to repeat the 3-9 half rather than the 8-2 half?

Let's just look at Martin's numbers when Dickey started:
1 for 11 in April,
3 for 10 in May,
5 for 25 in June,
4 for 17 in July,
3 for 15 in August, (when Dickey when 6-0)
1 for 13 in September.

That's 17 for 91. Good for a 0.187 batting average.

Would you put money down that Thole can't beat those numbers?

scottt

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 03 2016 @ 10:19 PM EST (#319175) #

In the First inning, every time Gavin Floyd threw a pitch he slipped. In the Second, the problem didn't exist so he pitched better. All in all, he pitched very well. If you have the MLB App, listening to Spring Training games is free. You still just have to log in once anyway, but it costs nothing.

When you look at the Bullpen, you see a lot of options. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens there and the #5 spot.

One thing is for sure, Buffalo is going to have a good pitching staff.

Wow.   Two homers by Saunders today already.   I think we can disregard that rumor about his "medicals." 

Scottt -- interesting numbers, but correlation does not imply causation.

Really encouraging to see power in particular from Saunders. My amateur opinion would guess that pain in the knee's biggest impact would be to sap power.

And I still think everyone is sleeping on how huge an upg4ade Tulo really is.

You can put me in the not-everyone category with Tulowitzki - I get the feeling he'll be a .280/.350/.470 (or more) guy with above average SS defense, which would be kinda awesome. His key stat will be games played.

bb-ref is projecting .362 OBP and .493 SLG in 505 PA for Tulowitzki. I'd like to see him better all three of those projections.

My guesstimate is in the same ballpark as Marcel the Monkey. I'm not quite sure how I feel about that.

There's no denying Saunders' talent. The key is whether he is healthy and if so, keeping him healthy. So far, so good.

Very impressive inning by Connor Greene.  Struck out the side, allowing only a walk to Arencibia.  (And JPA had to battle hard to get the walk, fouling off a series of 3-2 pitches.)   Greene has an overpowering high-to-low angle on his delivery, and none of the hitters were able to square away on it.  And his fastball was 94 to 98 mph.  Very promising prospect.

"bb-ref is projecting .362 OBP and .493 SLG in 505 PA for Tulowitzki. I'd like to see him better all three of those projections."

Tulo's career numbers on the road (outside of Coors for the most part) are .347 and .462. Hard to see him being better than that but that is damn good as is. He's one of the most interesting cases on the Jays because it's hard to know where he is in his career arc. He's talented enough to bounce back from last year and become an elite shortstop again. That would not surprise me at all. On the other hand, he looked completely awful for the entire second half last year even before the Jays traded for him and he looked lost, like a completely different hitter. It would also not surprise me if a player with his injury history suffered a fairly steep decline.

The most likely scenario lies somewhere in the middle. Steamer and ZIPS have almost identical projections which seem realistic to me and have Tulo being a 3+ WAR player.

Glevin, there's actually an effect that hurts Rockies hitters' #'s outside of Coors, and with Tulo hitting in the RC for half hit games plus Camden, Fenway, etc. he will play a lot of his games in hitters parks.

IMO giving up a walk to JPA IS very impressive.

Troy Tulowitzki plays 68 games in A.L. East hitting parks. I'm not familiar with A.L. Central parks and A.L. West parks to know which parks are not pitcher's parks. A healthy Tulo might actually challenge Donaldson for MVP, easily.

The only Outfield decision for this Team is, "Who's the backup/4th Outfielder", because Michael Saunders is the Left Fielder. Of that I have no doubt. If he cannot do the job full time, that's fine, I'll take what he can give.

I still expect Sanders knee to explode - looks like I just might be wrong - that's good news...

Clearly, if he can run with the job (literally and figuratively) I'd be delighted to get another power bat - this time a left handed bat into the middle of our lineup.

I can visualize: Pillar, Donaldson, Bautista, EdWing, Smoak (LH), Tulo, Sanders (LH), Martin, Goins to start the season and by June: Travis, etc., etc, with Pillar replacing Goins batting ninth.

I can see the hype on Conner Greene. A few points: he looks tall, broad shouldered, and (to me) he looks more than 165 pounds. Not massive - but bigger that 165... He's got a lot of twitch just standing still, a lot of moving parts, he looks confident, cocky and deliciously interesting. Definitely, one to watch this summer!

*Saunders

JB21 (by the way - aren't you 22 by now?)...

Saunders plays LF for the Jays - Sanders plays LF for the Democrats... two left fielders with very similar names - too much US political BS - I got their names switched - who'd a thunk it! Too much single malt perhaps - nah - never too much single malt...

Tulo and his 3+ War for 2016 , is lot better than having Reyes sidelined by domestic abuse and not being able to play. Eventually , you may miss Hoffman.
But , if Tulo is kept, with Martin , Goins/ Travis and Pillar in CF, your defense will be excellent - top 3 in AL and top 5 in MLB.
Have friends who saw Tulo play in Colorado at Coors and said that this is a steal by the Jays.
Just hope that Osuna in 2017, and Sanchez can be #3 and 4 SP for the Jays and than you can keep all the power hitters.

Mylegacy, by the way, do you drink alcohol? We get it...

I'm guessing Tulowitzki hopes to play most of the 81 games in the building formerly known as SkyDome, so why 68? New York, Baltimore and Boston are all easy to hit in, as are Cleveland and Texas. Chicago is also a home run park.

interesting numbers, but correlation does not imply causation.

That's a statistics expression. Martin catching Dickey is not a statistic.
Nobody is suggesting that Martin hitting poorly when catching Dickey is what's causing them to be a battery.

Regardless, events have causes. Causality is generally regarded as based on experience thus the past is used to predict the future.

When Dickey was acquired, Henry Blanco was signed on a minor contract and made the opening roster. He was released in June after hitting .184 in 15 games with no homeruns or RBIs.

Thole is the only guy who's been able to catch Dickey and hit reasonably well,  just not recently.

Again, it's not that I expect Thole to hit well this year, it's that I don't expect anyone replacing him to do any better offensively while doing noticeably worse defensively.

As mentioned above, I understand Thole catching Dickey, and I don't object if he is purely catching Dickey.  My point is that Thole will end up getting a lot of additional playing time, because he is the only back-up catcher when the Jays want to rest Martin, or when Martin has an injury.  If Martin has his usual 120 games this season, Thole would get 42 games, which is a lot.  (And it's a lot more than just Dickey's games.)  In addition, there will be games where Martin plays only a few innings, for various reasons, and Thole will get the rest of those games too. So it ends up being a lot of plate appearances.   I thought last year's arrangement was better.

The third catcher probably gets some times in September regardless.

The problem last year was that Navarro needed more innings.
And Thole was needed for 18 games anyway.
Navarro ended up with an OPS+ of 88, but he was a lot better when playing as DH.

.242 .306 .383 .688 as catcher which is what Thole has to replace.

The difference shouldn't be more than 1 WAR even if Thole hovers around an OPS+ of 35.

Navarro was a good backup Catcher and decent offensively for a backup Catcher, nothing more. He made Martin be Dickey's Catcher. That's reason one why he should have been traded. Edwin played more 1B than he should and his offense slipped a bit. That's reason two. Navarro took away at bats for Smoak and put Colabello in LF more. That's reasons three and four. Carrying a third catcher is wasteful and moving a player (Thole) up and down too much (before, then after each Dickey Start) is against the rules.

If in the new MLB/MLBPA agreement, the rosters expand, then we can discuss it. Until then accept what the Jays have. Creating unnecessary stress for yourself is unwise.