Dark Side of the Mound

It's a slow day.  It took me more than a second to realize that you were talking about Gavin Floyd.  Another coffee is in order.

ESPN Sweet Spot (David Schoenfeld for the most part I think is almost finished their preseason rankings. They've got up to 7th now and still haven't ranked the Jays, so we're at least top 6.

The rest of the AL East:

10.BOS
15.TBR
17.NYY
23.BAL

Tampa ahead of the Yankees? Hmmm.

It's a slow day. It took me more than a second to realize that you were talking about Gavin Floyd.

Is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me.

Is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me.

I hear you're feeling down.

You know what would ease my pain? Some last minute transactional voodoo that would preclude Josh Thole from the 150-200 PAs he's expected to soak this year.

Figured I'd do this on the new thread...
People talk about building from within and the Jays have done that many times. Gillick the most successful obviously with using draft/rule 5/international free agents to a degree few had before (draft was low but still helped). Heck, even his garbage pick ups (Mulliniks, Alexander, etc.) were great. But in the end to win it all he needed a few free agents nearing 40 (Winfield, Morris, Stewart, Molitor).

In the 90's under Ash we saw amazingly good drafts that were wasted in the end. From 1991 to 1999 with a tight budget in the 2nd half of the 90's we saw Shawn Green, Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Chris Carpenter, Shannon Stewart, Billy Koch, Felipe Lopez (he did get to an All-Star game), and Steve Karsay (solid reliever) drafted in the first round. That mass of talent produced exactly 0 playoff games for Toronto. So it clearly takes more than 'building within' to win.

Right now we have a top quality offense and a meh pitching staff that includes a guy who should be a clear #1, potential ace. Sadly our dollar collapsed at a terrible time for Jay fans (not to mention for the province of Alberta). If we still had a dollar at par I suspect we'd have seen Price stay or the Jays go after someone else who was a top flight free agent. On $100 million the drop is worth over $30 million no matter how much hedging Rogers does or more than Price will make. Realistically we should expect the Jays to drop from top 10 to #15 or so in payroll in the near term, and maybe down to #20 long term (no reason to drop all the way to Tampa/Miami level). Right now there are 10 ML teams under $100 million in estimated payroll for 2016. If the Jays ever drop badly (ie: back to under 2 mil fans and only 100k viewers) that is the only way I see them going that low in payroll. Technically the Jays could drop sub $100 mill as soon as 2017 if they wanted to ($84.5 committed to 5 players, remaining 20 Stroman is the only one getting a big raise).

I see Donaldson, Bautista and EdWing as exceptional bats. I see Travis (IF his shoulder is OK - and shoulders are really tough to repair) as a well above average bat. I see Martin and Tulo as "perhaps" above average bats (IF Martin stays healthy catching and Tulo finds his Rogers Mojo - fingers crossed). IF Colabello can keep hitting his balls (that sounds painful) where the defense ain't - he can be above average, perhaps.

IF - we don't sign at least one of JoeyBats and EdWing we'll be down to ONE exceptional bat in 2017. Unless the B.T.R.D.J (Brains That Run Da Joint) can somehow acquire another great bat before the start of the 17 season. I've me doubts that they can (or will).

I think the BEST we'll get is to sign one of the two, Bats or Wing, and get a supplemental first round pick for the other when he leaves in FA. Not a TOTAL disaster.

IF we get one of the two signed signed and Sanchez and Osuna both blossom(ish) in the rotation in 17 - joining Stroman to give us a seriously serious 1 - 2 - 3.... then perhaps all is not over by October this year.

At the VERY least - lets all savour every inning, of every game, of 16. This REALLY might be the YEAR!

Second Saddest Stadium in MLB Oakland for first? I might rank Tampa last - it's unpleasant to watch Tampa games even on TV. But maybe the backing up sewage wins no matter what...

Ash was one of the worst GM's in the history of baseball (that's not hyperbole, I mean it). I don't think you can use anything he did as a basis for anything.

The GM that might have been able to come close to Gillick was AA. Drafting was a strength under his watch, and he had the risk-taking ability and creativity to make things happen via trade. The issue was the 2013 off-season which essentially killed that plan dead. If he never pulled off that Donaldson trade, then Bautista and Encarnacion are probably already playing for other teams right now.

Building from within is not having a 25-man roster full of homegrown talent. It is a combination of drafting well, developing well, making good trades, maintaining flexibility, etc, while not making moves to fit any specific window. Teams are not going to be consistently good forever, but the goal should be to be as good for as long as possible.

In hindsight, I'm almost glad the team missed the playoffs in Ash's window (1998-2000) just to avoid having him stick around any longer than he did.

I'm not a huge fan of Gord Ash, but his tenure as GM corresponded with the time that the Jays were owned by Interbrew. They weren't interested in spending anything on the team at all, as they were an accidental offshoot of acquiring Labatt's.

Still, I suspect that a more savvy GM would never have traded Wells for Sirotka. That's what did Ash in.

Has Ash ever admitted that he had a chance to make the Sirotka trade conditional? Selig almost certainly played a role in making that trade as bad as it was... but looking back it really wasn't that bad:

"Not that David Wells was great for the White Sox. He went 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 starts, missing a lot of time with back troubles. And the White Sox paid him $9.25 million for those 5 wins, so really is was cheaper for the Jays to pay Sirotka not to pitch. After the season he signed with the Yankees as a free agent." from Bluebird Banter.

Ash was bad, but I think you've got to give him the benefit of the doubt given the circumstances, that said, he's never been given another shot -- has he played a big role in another org since then?

Ash was the assistant GM in Milwaukee under Doug Melvin.

Ash was the assistant GM in Milwaukee for years, although I think he's a 'consultant' now.

Those drafts were strong, and he did get Clemens to sign with the team, but otherwise he was pretty terrible. He kept assembling rosters with starters like Ed Sprague and past his prime Joe Carter out there while guys like Shawn Green were sitting days out and Jon Olerud was getting dumped for nothing (sorry, Robert Person).

Ash did multiple stupid trades that looked bad at the time and worse after time went by. A few examples...

• 1995: Traded David Cone to the New York Yankees. Received Mike Gordon, Jason Jarvis and Marty Janzen. Two never reached the majors and Janzen had a negative lifetime WAR
• Thought free agent prices would drop after the '94 strike so waited on signing Roberto Alomar
• 1996: Traded John Olerud and cash to the New York Mets. Received Robert Person (negative WAR every year he was here).
• 1997: didn't do anything monumentally stupid this year
• 1998: Traded Pete Tucci, Carlos Almanzar and Woody Williams to the San Diego Padres. Received Joey Hamilton (270 IP here 0.3 WAR vs Williams 8 WAR in the same 3 seasons for SD)
• 1999: tempted to put Clemens here (2 time triple crown winner for Wells and crap) instead Traded Jorge Nunez (minors) and Shawn Green to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Pedro Borbon and Raul Mondesi (an older, more expensive and less good version of Green).
• 2000: Traded Darwin Cubillan and Michael Young to the Texas Rangers. Received Esteban Loaiza.
• 2001: Traded Matt DeWitt and David Wells to the Chicago White Sox. Received Mike Williams (minors), Kevin Beirne, Brian Simmons and an injured Mike Sirotka.

It says something that I could find at least one very bad move (looked bad then and later) done nearly every year of his tenure here.

To be fair to Ash, both Clemens and Green forced trades out of town, a la Halladay

I know Ash wasn't very good, but.. weren't his hands tied by Shawn Green basically announcing ahead of time that he wasn't coming back (he was a FA after that season) because he wanted to play in LA? He'd already turned down a 4-year $45M deal to stay with the Jays - he subsequently signed an $84M 6-year deal that made him the 2nd highest paid player in the majors for a short period of time (according to the article I just read). Also, what are you basing the "more expensive" on? Except for a small difference in favor of Mondesi in the first year, Green made more than Mondesi thereafter, for every year left in Mondesi's contract.

Reminds me a bit of trading Halladay, except that Green, while very good, was never as good as Halladay. And some are still upset with the return we got from that one - i.e.: when you trade a star, you almost never get enough back.

One other thing I remember about Mondesi - the jays were able to dump his contract on the Yankees (Steinbrenner was a tad frustrated with the OF defense that season), keeping the bean counters happy

You know what would ease my pain?

If it's any comfort, Thole was better at framing than Martin last year.
The problem is not Thole getting 200 PAs, it's Martin getting injured and Thole getting more than 200 PAs.

Baltimore losing a bunch of picks and finishing last would probably not be a success story.

IF - we don't sign at least one of JoeyBats and EdWing we'll be down to ONE exceptional bat in 2017.

What's the odds of Bats or EE still being exceptional in 2017? 50% ?
What if one of them has a bad year in 2016? Should the Jays pounce and extend him for another 5 years?

I don't know anything about Ash, but I remember Ricciardi as a good evaluator who didn't have the budget to sign the players he wanted. Well, except for the Big Hurt.

His drafting was horrible, but I'll always wonder if he was just talking players who were willing to sign for slots because he didn't have the budget to sign the expensive ones.

Keith Law with our Top 10+ prospect rankings.

1. Anthony Alford, CF (52)

2. Conner Greene, RHP (just missed)

3. Jon Harris, RHP

4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., OF

5. Richard Urena, IF

6. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

7. Clinton Hollon, LHP

8. Justin Maese, RHP

9. Juan Meza, RHP

10. Dan Jansen, C

Beyond those, he has Lupe Chavez at 11, Nay 12, Pentacost 13, Tellez 14 and Chad Girodo 15.

Harris 3 and Tellez 14? I have some pretty big disagreements with that list.

Dan Jansen at 10 is surprising - prospect evaluators are all over the place on him, I've seen him in the 20s on some lists.

Tellez belongs in the top ten for sure - some people just don't like big-body sluggers.

But Harris at 3 is fine IMO - he's got some pretty stellar pedigree, SSS in the Jays minor leagues notwithstanding.  The floor on that guy is high. 

The Blue Jays get one extra pick in the June Draft. Chances are the Jays will always be trying to get extra picks, however they can. They can only spend a maximum of $300K on any and all they sign this July 2nd, and that could continue in 2017. The new MLB/MLBPA agreement for 2017 might change both.

It doesn't matter how good the Jays do this year because when the Trade Deadlines occur, Shapiro and Company might not be willing to pay the price to fill holes or upgrade positions. I don't and no one else has a good enough read on them to render any opinion, yea or nay.

For everyone that thinks Sanchez starts in 2016, think again. The 5th Starter is Drew Hutchison's job to lose this year. The Jays really need to know what he has and what changes must be made. The Jays need Drew to Start, he's a front of the rotation talent giving 5th Starter performance too often.

I'd like to see both Sanchez and Osuna as multi-inning Relievers before they are thrown in to start. Sanchez's 100-ish innings in 2015 has him on a pace to exceed possible limits sometime in August, and for a Team that might be fighting hard for a Playoff Berth that could be destroying. But people will disagree, so we wait to see what happens.

Here's Law's rationale on Tellez:

Rowdy Tellez (14) has big power but could not hit even an average fastball in the Arizona Fall League, as he struggled to adjust to off-speed stuff as well. He has played first base but is better suited to DH.

That may be, but from all accounts, Harris struggled to an even greater degree against much less stiff competition (with the subjective comments as unfavourable as the results).  Harris is a couple of years older than Tellez to boot.  As for Tellez' defence at first base, there have been some who have praised it to the hilt. 

By the way, Tellez was 19 in the AFL with only 35 games above low A Lansing.  He was facing competition that was basically double A level and hit .293/.352/.488 in 89 PAs notwithstanding his trouble with all kinds of pitches.  It appears to me that he was the youngest player in the league. 

i'm a bigtime jansen fan. have no problem with him being ranked top 10. i suspect he'd be ranked top 10 on all the lists if he hadn't been injured last year.

hollon is RH not LH though.

and if they pick up where they left off last year there'z a number of guys there who can crack top 100 soon.

It should be self-evident now that age is very important in evaluating prospects.  Take this Fangraphs evaluation of the Houston Astro prospects. A.J. Reed is rated ahead of Alex Bregman.  Reed is a 6'4" 240 lb first baseman like Tellez.  He's almost exactly 3 years older than Tellez and one level ahead of him developmentally.  Reed was in the Midwest League at age 21 (in 2014) and didn't perform as well as Tellez did at age 19. 

Obviously Reed had a big year at age 22 (with an assist from the league context and most of it in single A), but it's hard to understand a preference for Reed over Bregman.  I guess that it amounts to indiviidual confidence by a scout in his/her evaluations. As with Harris over Tellez...

Law has never really liked Tellez, often he has written that he has a slow bat, time will tell. I do however remember Tellez taking a 94 mph fastball from Paxton deep while in the Fall League.

Each minor league prognosticator is entitled to their own opinion, no matter how far outside the general norm is. Tellez is a nice bat, has a great eye and feel for the strike zone. He's got pop and hits LHP as well as RHP. The bat is legit.

Side note, Scott Boras is putting an innings limit on Jose Fernandez. IMO, I would not want Boras clients playing for my team. IF I had a Boras client, I would pitch the heck out of that arm and let them walk after FA hits.

From my experience, if Keith Law dislikes a prospect, then I generally expect good things from that prospect. Tellez just got a seal of approval, if anything.

"From my experience, if Keith Law dislikes a prospect, then I generally expect good things from that prospect. Tellez just got a seal of approval, if anything."

My sentiments as well.

Prospect rankings are always matters of opinion, usually disagreeing with others. Prospects are easy to rank:
1) Those you keep;
2) Those you trade;and,
3) Those who make 1 and 2 look better.

Per Dave Cameron from earlier today:

Vanderbilt Commodores: At this moment who are the top 5 teams in baseball?

Dave Cameron: I’d say the Cubs and Dodgers are the top two, and then it’s a cluster of teams in that second tier; Mets, Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, Giants, Yankees, Cardinals, Pirates

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-21716/

I always get the Athlon Sports baseball preview magazine when it comes out. I find it by far the best one. Has fantasy ratings at the back that are excellent. They say Toronto is going to win the A.L. East, win the League Championship, and win the World Series. Works for me.

On 7/28/14, the Royals were 53-51. They traded Danny Valencia on that day. They then proceeded to go on a huge 2nd half run to end a 30 year playoff drought. Shortly after the World Series ended in 2014, their first trade of that off-season was trading Liam Hendriks. Their big signing that off-season was signing a free agent pitcher that was fixed by Ray Searage in Pittsburgh (Volquez). Prior to the start of 2015, many assumed it would be the final season in KC for the face of their franchise in Alex Gordon. End result: they won the World Series.

On 8/1/15, the Blue Jays were 53-51. They designated Danny Valencia for assignment on that day. They then proceeded to go on a huge 2nd half run to end a 22 year playoff drought. Shortly after the World Series ended in 2015, their first trade of that off-season was trading Liam Hendriks. Their big signing that off-season was signing a free agent pitcher that was fixed by Ray Searage in Pittsburgh (Happ). Prior to the start of 2016, many assume it will be the final season in Toronto for the face of their franchise in Jose Bautista.

You guys know where I'm going with this.

Dave Cameron: I’d say the Cubs and Dodgers are the top two, and then it’s a cluster of teams in that second tier; Mets, Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, Giants, Yankees, Cardinals, Pirates

Ouch, 3rd place, and with Pecota (I think it was pecota) favouring the Rays, and the O's adding FAs- no matter whose predictions you believe, the AL east is gonna be a dogfight.

Jayson Stark at ESPN has a nice summary of the offseason after polling 35 execs:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14786897/best-worst-mlb-offseason

He has the Sox as the runaway most improved team in the AL, with the Jays at the bottom of the 'least improved' list. 

interestingly, the execs had the Price and Grienke deals as the best FA signings of the offseason.  old friend travis snider was on the list for best minor league signings. 

Intriguing post, SK.

ESPN finishes off it's preseason ranks:

1. Cubs
2. Mets
3. Astros
4. Royals
5. Blue Jays
6. Dodgers

CBS Ranks

7. Blue Jays
11. Yankees
12. Red Sox
20. Orioles
21. Rays

Bodog World Series Futures

4. Red Sox +1200
6. Blue Jays +1600
7. Yankees +2000
20. Orioles +5000
23. Rays +7500

But Bodog writers aren't buying that Red Sox line:

"The 2015 Major League Baseball season was a down year for the Boston Red Sox. They finished dead last in the American League East for the second year in a row and their pitching staff ranked near the bottom of the league with an abysmal 4.31 ERA, well above the league average of 3.96.

That’s nothing $217 million can’t fix, can it?

Red Sox Nation hasn’t taken kindly to back-to-back last place division finishes, and the Sox responded by signing stud pitcher David Price to a monster contract. Spending money to get out of a hole was a strategy that backfired on the Sox last year with the inflated signings of Pablo Sandovol and Hanley Ramirez, so will this year be any different?

The Sox currently rank 4th on the futures board at Bodog, making them the top American League team on the list. Boston’s odds to win the World Series currently stand at +1200, a major adjustment from the +2000 number that they entered the postseason with prior to the Price signing.

Considering the 2016 Red Sox will primarily be made up of 2015’s last place team, it’s a definite stretch to assume a player who pitches every five games will put them over the top.

However, if everything clicks the way it’s supposed to and Sandoval and Ramirez combine to play much more than the 231 games they played in during the 2015 season, there’s a chance they could sneak into the playoffs and make a World Series run. Boston did post a winning record last season vs their best divisional opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays, but still, +1200 to win the World Series is poor value for a team coming off two seasons in the basement of the AL East."

I'm throwing $100 on each of the following:

Miami +7500
Seattle +4000
Los Angeles Angels +3300

Great value in those numbers.

"I'm throwing $100 on each of the following:

Miami +7500
Seattle +4000
Los Angeles Angels +3300

Great value in those numbers."

Even if you lose $300?

On 7/28/14, the Royals were 53-51. They traded Danny Valencia on that day.

I feel a bit sorry for Danny Valencia - he was traded away from contending teams in two consecutive years. I wonder whether he watched this year's ALCS on TV.

He actually had a decent year in 2015 - he made Brett Lawrie expendable in Oakland. I'll be curious to see whether the A's contend in the AL West in 2016 - and, if so, whether Valencia will get to stay the entire season.

I get the snark, yes, the expected value of any sports bet is negative -- but if the perceived expected value is greater than the expected value then that's value to the bettor. All sports bets can look good if the value of merely betting exceeds that of playing (see any single lottery ticket ever).

LAA bet does look decent, Miami and Seattle not so much.

Instead of projection systems, I decided to use actual results from the last 2yrs, and then apply that to the fangraphs' depth chart playing time projections. For players 25 and under I added 0.5war full season pace and for players over 30 I subtracted 0.5war full season pace (650pa/32gs).

Using my usual war averages.

Donaldson 665pa, 7.4war ------ Betts 640pa, 5.9war
Bautista 609pa, 4.5war --------- Pedroia 602pa, 3.5war
Tulowitzki 560pa, 4.5war ------- Bogaerts 651pa, 3.0war
Pillar 595pa, 4.4war ------------- Bradley 525pa, 2.3war
Martin 480pa, 4.0war ------------ Ortiz 595pa, 2.2war
En’cion 602pa, 3.7war ---------- Castillo 427pa, 1.9war
Saunders 441pa, 3.1war ------- Swihart 320pa, 1.2war
Goins 490pa, 1.5war ------------ Sandoval 560pa, 0.9war
Smoak 399pa, 0.3war ---------- Ramirez 511pa, 0.6war

Travis 210pa, 2.3war ------------ Shaw 266pa, 1.5war
Pompey 266pa, 1.2war --------- Holt 322pa, 1.5war
Barney 154pa, 0.8war ----------- Young 413pa, 0.7war
Thole 128pa, -0.4war ----------- Vazquez 128pa, 0.6war
Colabello 357pa, -0.4war ------ Hanigan 192pa, 0.5war
Others 0.0

SubTotal: 36.9 ------ 26.3


Stroman 193ip, 5.4war --------- Price 229ip, 5.9war
Dickey 205ip, 1.9war ----------- Rodriguez 139ip, 2.5war
Happ 146ip, 1.8war ------------- Porcello 190ip, 2.1war
Chavez 131ip, 1.3war ---------- Buchholz 167ip, 1.5war
Estrada 165ip, 1.2war ---------- Elias 129ip, 1.0war

Osuna 65ip, 1.7war ------------- Kimbrel 65ip, 2.0war
Storen 65ip, 1.5war ------------- Smith 55ip, 1.7war
Cecil 55ip, 1.3war --------------- Uehara 65ip, 1.6war
Loup 45ip, 0.3war --------------- Tazawa 55ip, 0.8war

Sanchez 83ip, 1.6war ---------- Kelly 83ip, 0.6war
Hutch 81ip, 0.8war -------------- Owens 47ip, 0.5war
Others 0.0war

SubTotal 18.8 ------ 20.2


Total 55.7 ------ 46.5


There's gonnna have to be a whole bunch of U-Turns in performance, on both sides, for the red sox and jays to live up to their projections this year.

Can you throw the Yankees totals up there, uglyone?

LAA bet does look decent, Miami and Seattle not so much.

Miami plays in a very weak division this year w/ Atlanta and Philadelphia and their lineup is strong:

C - JT Realmuto 1.8 WAR
1B - Just Bour 1.1
2B - Dee Gordon 2.6
SS - Hechavarria 1.6
3B - Martin Prado 2.6
LF - Yelich 3.2
CF - Ozuna 2.2
RF - Stanton 4.9

TOTAL: 20

SP
Fernandez 4.0
W. Chen 3.5
T. Koehler 1.4
J. Cosart 1.7
A. Conley 1.5

TOTAL: 12.1

MARLINS TOTAL: 32.1

Fairly decent and I'm not including bullpen and bench

Thanks for posting uglyone, it helps me anchor something I've been thinking about today --I just finished my first skim-through of the BP annual. Despite my optimism for the Jays in 2016, I wanted to visualize the negative. If someone from the future who told me that one of the following scenarios were true, but he can't be sure.

Scenario A:

1) Pillar, Collabello, nor Goins are closer to their 2014 than 2015 selves.
2) Stroman is closer to 2 WAR than 5 WAR.
3) Saunders and Pompey are a 0 WAR players.

Scenario B:

1) Tulo in the AL is what Tulo has done in the AL
2) Osuna sent to start in AAA because of a month of ineffectiveness and the presence of Storen.
3) 3 months of injury time for one of Donaldson, Bautista, or EE.

Do the Jays make the playoffs in either scenario A or B or both, if we accept the above WAR estimates as reasonable?

Despite my optimism for the Jays in 2016, I wanted to visualize the negative.

I find myself doing this with all of the AL teams - imagining best case and worst case scenarios.

Take the Baltimore Orioles. They've been given a poor grade in virtually all corners, but what does this lineup look like if everything breaks well for the O's?

OF Hyun-Soo Kim
3B Manny Machado
1B Chris Davis
OF Adam Jones
DH Mark Trumbo
C Matt Wieters
2B Jonathan Schoop
SS J.J. Hardy
OF Jimmy Paredes

Throw in Dexter Fowler as a wildcard (reports today say they're moving closer) and you have something approaching Jays' quality if the O's core has great years and 1 or 2 of the Jays slide a bit (the O's did finish 3rd in HRs last season).

The Red Sox are probably even more volatile - what can we expect from Sandoval and Ramirez this year? Do the kids (Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley) keep up their strong upwards trajectories? How much does Pedroia have left?

Can't wait for the games to start, I think it's going to be a wild ride.

Gardner 609pa, 2.6war
Gregorius 588pa, 2.6war
Rodriguez 574pa, 2.3war
Ellsbury 616pa, 2.2war
Teixeira 581pa, 2.2war
Headley 595pa, 2.1war
McCann 512pa, 2.0war
Castro 602pa, 1.7war
Beltran 532pa, 0.2war

Heathcott 56pa, 0.9war
Hicks 273pa, 0.7war
Ackley 252pa, 0.4war
Sanchez 109pa, 0.0war
Kozma 175pa, -0.5war
Others 0.0war

Subtotal: 19.4


Tanaka 197ip, 4.0war
Pineda 176ip, 3.9war
Severino 161ip, 3.9war
Eovaldi 150ip, 1.8war
Sabathia 141ip, 0.4war

Chapman 65ip, 2.7war
Betances 55ip, 2.1war
Miller 65ip, 2.1war
Shreve 55ip, 0.7war

Nova 101ip, -0.1war
Mitchell 45.0ip, -0.2war
Others 0.0war

Subtotal: 21.3

Toal 40.7

"Scenario A:

1) Pillar, Collabello, nor Goins are closer to their 2014 than 2015 selves."

Pillar 2014: 92wrc+, 0.7fwar, 0.9bwar, 4.3war/650pa
Pillar 2015: 93wrc+, 4.3fwar, 5.2bwar, 4.9war/650pa

There really wasn't much difference between Pillar 2014 and 2015, aside from playing time. The only performance difference was an upgrade in baserunning value.

Goins returning to his 2014 self could be struck out by Barney returning to his 2014 self, or more likely just Travis being healthier.

Cola and Smoak could easily turn into a pumpkin though.


"2) Stroman is closer to 2 WAR than 5 WAR."

I guess it's possible but that would be similar to projecting Mookie Betts for 2war. unlikely.

"3) Saunders and Pompey are a 0 WAR players."

possible.

"Scenario B:

1) Tulo in the AL is what Tulo has done in the AL"

Tulo produced about a 5war pace in the AL, by both fwar and bwar.

"2) Osuna sent to start in AAA because of a month of ineffectiveness and the presence of Storen."

possible.

"3) 3 months of injury time for one of Donaldson, Bautista, or EE."

Jays had their fair share of injuries last year. They made the playoffs.

"Do the Jays make the playoffs in either scenario A or B or both, if we accept the above WAR estimates as reasonable?"

I don't see either scenario as a season killer, no.



I get looking at the negative side but I think in general it's normal to be nervous about our kids underperforming, even while we ogle other teams' youngsters and only see their boundless upside.

Congratulations to the Red Sox for winning the offseason. Didn't they win last offseason's championship too? Or am I confusing them with the White Sox?

The Jays are one of a bunch of teams that have a good chance of making the playoffs. They have around the same talent as the Red Sox and Yankees IMO and more than the O's and Rays. Would it surprise me if the Jays won the division? No. They have the talent to do so. Would it surprise me if they missed the playoffs? No. There are a lot of talented teams. I just want baseball to start so we can stop obsessing over whether the Jays have the 7th most talent in the league or the 9th most.

It happens every year; a player(s) you think will do well will disappoint/get hurt, or a player(s) you expect nothing from will provide a ton of value. The key is to have enough depth to cover injuries/underachieving. The Jays have the talent to win the division. That's the most important part. Whether they can win more games than many of the other projected good teams in the AL remains to be seen. It will take the usual combination of talent, luck, and depth.

Thanks for the breakdowns Ugly.

Goins could easily be platooned with Barney, who has always been competent against lefties, while Goins has always been better vs. righties. With Travis also in the mix, I feel we are going to have a decent 9th hitter with a quality glove at the minimum.

Similarly with Smoak and Cola - between the two of them, both would have to bomb to leave us with a hole in the lineup.

There's a big disparity with Saunders, uglyone.  I think that you may have made a mistake. Anyways, 3.1 fWAR in 441 PAs from Saunders would be awfully unlikely and out of context with his career.

Toronto plays 76 games verses the A.L. East; 33 games verses A.L. Central; 33 games verses the A.L. West; 16 games verses N.L. West; and, 4 games verses N.L. East. That makes head-to-head battles vital.

Baltimore is trying to sign RHP Yovani Gallardo and OF Dexter Fowler. Gallardo might just become the Ace of that Rotation. Fowler makes a bunch of just average guys look better. They think they can compete. Toronto should easily crush this Team.

Tampa as usual has good young Pitching and still no money to spend. They done some nice things adding offense to an anemic Club. They are projected to finish ahead of the Jays. The Jays started 1-6 verses then and finished 8-4. Toronto should easily beat them.

New York doesn't want to spend money, or trade assets away. Depressed market trades got them a Short Stop and a Closer after Toronto crushed them. Expecting much better than normal performance from aging assets won't be enough. Toronto should do well against them again this year.

Boston added an Ace and a Closer and still has major issues; and a returning Manager who creates more problems than he solves. These are the favorites to win the division. That's sad, because the Jays should do well here.

A lot of Teams beat the Jays before they got good, and almost no one beat them after. The Defense was very good and should very well be better. The Offense was world class and I think it's better. The Bullpen became very good and I think it's better. The Rotation returns three good regulars, a good new acquisition and a possible significant upgrade to another regular, so it's certainly not getting any worse.

The Blue Jays won't get a lot of love south of the Border because no one expects them to repeat. That's going to be a shock to some because no A.L. Team improved enough to beat them. All I'm know for sure is this is going to be a fun year.

"1) Tulo in the AL is what Tulo has done in the AL"

Tulo produced about a 5war pace in the AL, by both fwar and bwar."

In the annual there's a nice tongue-in-cheek piece that is a Dear John letter to WAR. Tulo and a full season of sub .700 OPS? That's probably bad...

Alex Anthopoulos acquired Michael Saunders for the changes he made in 2014. That's worth 2.4 WAR in just 263 ABs. Now anyone can say anything they want about Saunders, and they usually do because no one thinks the same way. But until I see different, A.A.'s expertise and opinion puts everyone else's on this site to shame.

only 7 qualified SS posted an ops over .700 last year. mlb average as SS was .688.

Troy Tulowitzki is still the best Short Stop in Baseball. He's had a grand total of 207 ABs as a Blue Jay and someone one decides he might be done. What an amazing nonsense people are capable of disguised as opinion.

He generated 1.4 WAR in 41 games, struggling to hit. He had good games and was very good in the A.L. Championship series. That might indicate he's adapting well to A.L. pitching. Until I see him for a whole year, any opinion yea or nay is assuredly premature.

Mike -

Last 2yrs: 299pa, 1.9fwar, 2.3bwar, 2.1awar, 3.1awar/441pa

clearly one of the smallest and most unreliable samples there, but i let the numbers do their thing.

one thing to remember about saunders, though, is the growth in saunders career. he was rushed to the bigs and didn't get good until he was 25.

22: 129pa, -0.4awar, -2.0war/650pa
23: 327pa, 0.4awar, 0.8war/650pa
24: 179pa, -0.6awar, -2.2war/650pa

25: 553pa, 2.3awar, 2.7war/650pa
26: 368pa, 1.5awar, 2.0war/650pa
27: 263pa, 2.2awar, 5.4war/650pa
28: 36pa, -0.1awar, -1.8war/650pa

or in another way:

-25: 635pa, -0.6awar, -0.6war/650
25+: 1220pa, 5.9awar, 3.1war/650 (2.1war/441pa)

Overall, I think Shapiro and Atkins have had a pretty good off-season.  They might not have done well in the perennially difficult game of "Try to persuade Rogers to bump up the payroll so that the Jays can afford an elite free agent" but in every other aspect they've done well.  (Footnote: uglyone will argue that the Jays could have afforded an elite free agent anyway, but let's set aside that debate for now.)  Shapiro's obsession with depth is, to my eyes, a good strategy.  Injuries happen, and this year the Jays will be ready for it.  In fact, the depth is such that -- if Hutchison or Sanchez take a step forward and stake a firm claim to a rotation spot -- the Jays will be in the incongruous position of essentially paying $4-million to Chavez to hold down the traditional Todd Redmond spot in the bullpen.  Four million is a lot to pay for a Todd Redmond role player, but it's still valuable to have Chavez available in case of an injury to a starter.  I think Gavin Floyd is a potential sleeper acquisition who could eventually be a rotation option too.  So I think the bullpen and rotation are going to be pretty good, barring a major regression from Stroman and/or Estrada and/or Dickey.  And if the pitching is good, the offense will be strong enough to rack up a lot of wins.

Prior to getting hurt last season, Saunders was trending the right direction. He was miscast by the Mariners (much like practically every young player that organization touches) as a CF when he was above average in RF and LF (career DRS of 7 in left, 8 in right, and -25 in center). There was reason to believe that a move to the RC would improve his offense and a full season in left would improve his defensive value. Who knows what he will be like post-injury, though. I'm in a wait and see mode with him. I'm going to assume that Saunders/Lake is tentatively pencilled in as the LF platoon with Pompey/Ceciliani/Carrera in the minors (if Carrera clears waivers). It would be a huge boost to the 2016 team if Saunders can regain some of his old form and stay reasonable healthy, but I'm not expecting anything from him until spring rolls around and he shows that he's back.

There is a lot of reasons to have hope for 2016. The offense should be top 2 or 3 in the majors with any luck (ie: no major injuries to stars). The rotation only needs to be average - 1993 had a 103 ERA+ with 3 solid in the pen (Ward, Eichhorn, Cox ERA+ over 140 each) with 4 'meh' around 100 ERA+ in the rotation (Stewart, Leiter, Guzman, Hentgen who won 19 with a 112 ERA+) plus a lot of crap (90 or worse ERA+ and 25+ starts for Stottlemyre and Morris). Leiter was the #6 guy, #7 and beyond had just 4 starts and sucked (pitched like Morris did).

Yeah, I'd love a staff like Houston had last year (113 ERA+ overall) but realistically around 100 should do the trick. Dickey, Happ, Estrada, Chavez should be around 95-100 range with any luck and Stroman should be 110+ (I hope for 140+ but lets not count on it). That makes for a strong enough staff.

"The offense should be top 2 or 3 in the majors with any luck (ie: no major injuries to stars)."

who do you think can match them?

Well, it would be a broken record coming from me, but I thought Shapiro/Atkins played this off-season extremely well. The team is in good position to make the playoffs again. All their moves were designed to add wins in 2016, while not hurting the team beyond 2016, and that's exactly what the off-season strategy should have been. All prospects and picks were kept. We can only wait and see how it all plays out, but I like this team. It will be a dogfight in the East, though. Any scenario from winning the East, to securing a WC spot, to missing out entirely wouldn't surprise me. There are a lot of good teams in the AL.

I should add that making a deep playoff run definitely made the off-season go by a little quicker. Being out of it by August usually makes the off-season feel like an eternity.

I think Shapiro, LaCava and Atkins have had an underrated off-season. Chavez, Happ, Estrada, Storen, Floyd, all on relatively short-term contracts, plus various depth options (on both the pitching and position player sides) -- it's not the most exciting collection of names, but it was a pretty good effort overall, especially given the apparent financial constraints (in the face of a pricey free agent market) and the fact that the front office is trying to compete in 2016 while avoiding further depletion of the farm system.

One thing I think the organization might miss is Anthopoulos's tenacity and vaulting ambition. When other GMs contacted Oakland last off-season, they were told Donaldson wasn't available. Anthopoulos (if you believe the narrative spun by the media) wouldn't take no for an answer, and kept bugging Beane until he was able to work out a deal. Apparently Alex also pursued Tulowitzki in dogged fashion over the course of a year or more.

For better or worse, it's hard to imagine Shapiro and Atkins being similarly obsessive in chasing down high-value, all-but-unavailable trade targets.

Replying to http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318753

Although the belief that battersbox.ca includes intelligent and smart baseball discussion shall be upheld, the wondering if some other rival teams of Toronto may have search for intelligence and stumbled onto this website is also understandable.

Shall the audience of the media be fine -- satisfied -- with the explanation that AA would not take no for an answer ?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/viewpoint/ask-ba-just-missed-top-100/

"..Yes, this is the one time each year that we know we’ll receive this question for Ask BA. We know as soon as you get the Top 100 Prospects list in your hand, you’ll be wondering who just missed the list....

...In some order, the next 20 who just missed the Top 100 were..

(Vlad Guerrero Jr.)

....There were 208 players who landed somewhere on at least one ballot, including:...

(C.Greene, J.Harris, S.Reid-Foley, R.Urena, R.Tellez)

...Max Pentecost (shoulder injury) and Nick Kingham (Tommy John surgery) did not garner any votes this year because of injuries...."



so 7-8 guys in top-100 territory in at least some observers' minds.

We, the people, have a good site here. Baseball is back, so life is getting better. The Blue Jays are possibly the best team in the A.L., so watching and following the Jays will be fun again.

So when transactions are officially reported on the Site, they appear on the App earlier. SS Javier Monzon, (23, Havana Cuba), Feb 8th on the App, about a week later on the website. RHP Meliton Reyes (18, Aguadulce Panama), Feb 3rd on the App. P Nicolas Cabarcas, (17, Cartegena Colombia) Feb 1st on the App. It they have value as prospects, we should find out this year.

The Jays have signed Tony Sanchez to a minor league deal. He was drafted 4th overall in 2009 and looked like a promising catching prospect for the Pirates a few years ago but never materialized. Not a bad AAA depth option, though. Clearly better than Quintero or whatever scrub the Jays had as the 3rd catching on the depth chart.

In 2011 Sanchez ranked 46th on Baseball America's Top Prospect list. It goes to show that you never know what you have in a prospect until they perform well at the major league level.

I wonder if this feels like deja vu for Sanchez, potentially backing up Russell Martin all over again.

He has a decent reputation as a defender and a .681 OPS in 143 ABs (Thole hasn't cracked .600 since 2011). I would think he's the every day guy in Buffalo and becomes that for the Jays should Martin need a DL stint.

As the season approaches I was wondering ... has anyone here subscribed to MLB.TV? Can you get Jay games in Canada with it? I know early on they were blacked out but checking online it seems the rules might have changed.

I guess the issue with sanchez is whether he can actually field the position.

I'm a subscriber... The Jay's games haven't been blocked the last three seasons.

However it seemed mid-season last year Jays games were being blocked on mobile devices when viewed through the browser. I suspect this has to do with Roger's claiming rights to mobile devices because of their On Demand app.

Disclaimer: sorry for the off-topic post - if there's more interest in this topic, perhaps someone can start a new discussion topic for it? If you aren't interested in technical discussions about watching sports online, skip to the next comment - there's nothing "baseball" related in here..
---

John - I assume you're asking about live games? I know archived games will be available, blackout or not, within a day usually.

I have subscribed to mlb.tv for, I forget exactly how long.. at least 4-5 years, might be 6 or 7. But, due to time differences, watching live baseball from 4:00-7:00 pm is pretty awkward (I'm in California). So, I usually watch the game the next day in the morning while exercising. That way, if I don't have a lot of time, I can just watch the Jays bat (sorry for the pitching freaks, but except for Price/Stroman pitching last year, I preferred to watch the Jays hitters), skip commercials, etc..

I did take time during the playoffs to watch games live, especially "the bat flip" game. That was amazing. Due to MLB policy, it was strictly blacked out in the US. However, I found that Rogers, who holds the blackout rights in Canada, was being very lax about forcing the game to be blacked out on mlb.tv - so I fired up my handy dandy VPN account and picked Toronto as the "exit node" and then signed back into MLB.tv. Worked flawlessly. Vancouver didn't work, IIRC (tried that first, due to being closer). I guess when the RC's already sold out, you can gain some goodwill by allowing the game to be broadcast throughout the country (and it actually improved my feelings towards Rogers!).. I THINK I've heard that this is true for the regular season as well, but I could be wrong. You can "borrow" my VPN account sometime if you want to try it - I rarely need it during the regular baseball season.

I have recently had similar reason to fire up the VPN for nhl.tv games. For those, I had to pretend I was coming from Paris (outside of N.A.). NHL didn't seem to mind - in fact, in their FAQ they say "if you travel, we'll show you any game you're allowed to watch in the country you're currently in, regardless of home address". I think that's actually a subtle nod to VPN users that this is a way to get around blackout restrictions. And MLB recently helped the NHL to redo their system - it now works more like MLB.tv, although for hockey, the new viewer SUCKS and I have cancelled my subscription. The old viewer was much better: game action only, commercials stripped out rather than forcing you to watch them, no intermission blather, etc (but that's a rant for another day).

I would imagine that if you have a decent internet connection, add a VPN account to somewhere in the US and/or Europe, then you should be able to get around the blackout restrictions, if enforced this year. However, high internet traffic may degrade the quality, I don't know.

Tip for those in MLB.tv who watch archived games using the "new viewer" and don't like being forced to watch commercials: use firefox and install adblock plus. When it gets to commercial, it will actually restart the broadcast from the beginning (at least, it did last year). Clicking on the "pick which half inning to go to" selector and going to the next half/full inning is way faster for me than sitting through 2-3 minutes of unskipable commercials. NHL.tv now works the same way, but the "move along timeline" indicator gets messed up when I do that, and in hockey, there's no predefined jump points, so it's a pain to jump back and forth to find the spot I left off at. I'd rather go back to torrenting/subscribing to a gray-area service like hockeystreams.com (RIP) than be forced to watch unskipable commercials. I actually use the OLD MLB.TV viewer - it doesn't constantly try to do adaptive quality. And for years I used the even older "NexDef" viewer with per-batter selection (even though it only worked 2/3 of the time). If they get rid of the old viewer (which doesn't force commercials), I'll be pretty annoyed.

Great stuff. To add, I watched The Bat Flip Game and a couple others on MLB.TV here in Vancouver with no issues.

Interesting FG's read on the Jays (and Phillies') OF d.

As I was reading I was wondering if Pillar's range had a negative impact on the corner outfielders' ratings.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-blue-jays-and-phillies-try-the-one-man-outfield/

Thanks for the info. I'm hoping TBayTel gives us a skinny basic option so I can cut my cable bill down drastically, then sign up for mlb.tv and watch Jay games (the app is availble on my blu-ray player, ps3, phone, tablet, etc.). With it being just me and my 10 year old we watch less and less live TV (she is addicted to Netflix and YouTube) so all I need are the big networks (fan of most comic book shows - Supergirl, Arrow, Flash, Legends, plus Big Bang Theory) that I can PVR to watch later (prefer that to doing it the illegal way). Might sign up for Shomi too if they'd get a blinking app on Samsung Blu-Ray players already, or even PS3's.

RIP Tony Phillips

sad day.

The author fell down though by ignoring Pompey last year and how he was in CF to start the season with Pillar in LF then they flipped in late April iirc before Pompey went down. Many felt Pompey was the better defender iirc.

So the question becomes, what if you have two young hotshots playing defense? In 2015 Pompey in LF (49 1/3 innings) had a -51.6 UZR/150 (ouch) vs his 29.7 in CF (167 innings). Pillar was a 8.1 in LF (120 innings), 16.0 in CF (1236 innings), and -20.7 in RF (26 innings). Makes one wonder if the Jays might have had the right idea at the start with Pompey in CF and Pillar in LF given how both played.

In the end though what matters in 2016 is getting Pompey used to LF and hopefully he'll pull off a positive UZR there if given a shot (under 50 innings is an extremely small sample size).

Sad to hear about Tony Phillips - a heart attack at 56. He was one of my favorites back in the day - could play anywhere, had speed and a bit of pop in the bat. Would've been a dream player in these days of the 13 man bullpen.

Maybe you put Pompey in LF, Pillar in RF and JB in center. Maybe Pompey and Pillar can make up for Bautista's range.

Tony Phillips was one of the very few players who was a lot better from age 35 to 37 than from age 25 to 27.  I did not know (or have forgotten- always possible)  that he was a first round pick of the Expos originally who traded him for Willie Montanez.

Phillips shared my birth year, a birth day with a member of my immediate family, and went to school in Roswell, New Mexico.  I think I'll make sure my life insurance is paid up...
He was indeed a great player and not given his due outside the sabermetric community.

pubster - that is just so crazy it might work.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318757

Are former Jays Quiroz and Diaz available ? Having Diaz and JoeyBats on the same team in Toronto would mean things come to full circle. Or AA got JoeyBats for almost free.

I guess the issue with sanchez is whether he can actually field the position.

Not really. He was named best defensive catcher in the Pirates system 4 times.
He's known for his ability to receive the ball, but has an average arm.

The issue is whether he can hit enough. His minor numbers are fine.
He seems to know how to work the count to get walks.
Hitting better than Josh Thole should be quite achievable.
Could be an option for the backup job next year.

I like the signing.

Maybe you put Pompey in LF, Pillar in RF and JB in center. Maybe Pompey and Pillar can make up for Bautista's range.

Well, the problem there isn't (IMHO) the left-right range, it's going BACK on the deep fly to center. Even old friend Colby had trouble with that, and JB has never struck me as being good on balls over his head - every time I think of him making a play deep in RF, my mental image is of him waving his glove in the air in vain (is that to signal his teammates that he won't be able to catch it?), then trying to run it down, possibly dropping it once or twice, then trying to throw out the runner that only got an extra base because he bobbled the ball. I know, that's being harsh, but I have a feeling that would be the norm on deep flies.

Of course, what do I know? He might be KILLER on bloop singles, throwing to 1st or 3rd..

I don't know if Bautista is really horrible in RF.
It's worth noting that the 2 years his defense was acceptable he wasn't hitting enough to get MVP votes.

I don't think the Jays are doubling down on back corner outfield defense. Pompei and Saunders should be more than adequate.

"Could be an option for the backup job next year."
Has Sanchez ever caught a knuckleballer?

realistic possibility:

CF Pillar
RF Saunderw
LF Pompey
1b/dh Bautista
1b/dh Encarnacion

Jason Stark talks with John Gibbons.

Re: mlb.tv. I subscribed late last year (there are cheap rates late in the season), and could watch all Jays regular season & playoffs, home & away. (I'm in Toronto).

Thinking I might go for the season this time. The full package also includes the enhanced At Bat app.

I split MLBtv with 7 other buddies. It's an email login. It's well worth the money. No games are blacked out. Tremendous value.

Padres have signed former Jay Casey Janssen to a minor league deal with spring training invite. Didn't he have some kind of illness in 2014 and try to come back too soon? It seems he might have permanently lost it after that.. Apparently he's lost 3+ mph off his fastball.. 4.95 ERA in 2015 with the Nationals.

I don't recall Janssen being healthy. Not even one year. Guy could always pitch in small dose though.

A few half-assed quick thoughts...

After we win the World Series this fall I'm really looking forward to 17 (or 18 perhaps) and an outfield of Pillar in CF, Pompey in left and Alford in right. Will a ball ever hit the ground? Perhaps if we keep Bautista he can DH then - Smoak/Calabello and Rowdy can jockey for 1st base and Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna can become the Big Three we hope they might. Also, I may be alone on this - but - I still have high hopes for Hutchison.

Here in Sidney, on Vancouver Island, the grass is green (actually it's green all year), the shrubs are in little green leaves, many daffs are in bloom, some camelias are in flower and even the occasional rhodies are in bloom. No wonder my fancy is turning to the smell of popcorn, peanuts, hot dogs and BASEBALL! Play ball all ready - come on - lets get this thing on the road!

I too cannot wait for ST. According at Buck Martinez some pitchers are already in Dunedin working out.He did not say if any catchers have arrived.

Anyhow. Cheers to all. I have a beer. Lets get this season started.

With Baltimore's signing of Yovani, they lose their first round pick. That promotes the Jays' first round pick and increases their bonus pool. Nice of Baltimore to make Toronto better.

I too cannot wait for ST. According at Buck Martinez some pitchers are already in Dunedin working out.He did not say if any catchers have arrived.

It's been really cool seeing some Jays head down to ST early and the enthusiasm they have for this season. Bautista in particular has impressed me with how he's rallied the troops.

http://jaysjournal.com/2016/02/19/blue-jays-already-working-ahead-of-spring-training-report-dates/

It sounds as if Baltimore is going to land Fowler as well. It makes sense for the O's to make these moves. It gives them a modest chance of making the playoffs while the core of their team is still intact. They can rebuild the farm system down the road when their nucleus of veterans departs or goes into decline.

At least they're being decisive, i.e., trying to be competitive now instead of getting caught in the middle (as the Jays did for so many years). It might not work out, but stranger things have happened. It should be an interesting divisional race this year.

It sounds as if Baltimore is going to land Fowler as well. It makes sense for the O's to make these moves. It gives them a modest chance of making the playoffs while the core of their team is still intact. They can rebuild the farm system down the road when their nucleus of veterans departs or goes into decline.

I agree it makes sense for them to take their shot now given the makeup of their team.

The Gallardo signing puts them at ~$139M and just into the top 10 (they've been over $20M lower than the Jays the past couple of seasons). I think Angelos has realized where his team sits in its current competitive window - they did have 96 wins in 2014. Why not take another shot before going into a Phillies-style rebuild?

The Jays now have the 14th highest payroll in MLB, just behind the big market behemoths of Kansas City and Seattle. I mention the Phillies on purpose; they actually DO have a huge market but are sitting at 21st in team salary. Their fans seem to recognize that their team is in a rebuild, after spending big for a few years and falling flat (5th, 7th and 9th highest prior to this season).

Ultimately that is what frustrates me about ownership - it's the timing of their choice to retrench. I'd have no trouble with the team going cheap like the Phillies during a down year (or years). But to act like a have-not THIS season ... well, like others, I can't wait for the games to start. I don't believe the season will be the disappointment that the offseason has been.

"With Baltimore's signing of Yovani, they lose their first round pick. That promotes the Jays' first round pick and increases their bonus pool. Nice of Baltimore to make Toronto better."

nothing compared to what Jays did for lowering the Price to Boston

Pitchers and catchers reported today. They take their physicals today with tomorrow the first on-field workout.

RA Dickey had off season meniscus surgery.

Thanks, Gerry, for the Dickey tidbit.  For most pitchers, meniscus surgery might be worrisome, but for a knuckleballer it might be a positive thing if the surgery was successful. 

Looks like Panda is primed for a bounceback year for the Sox:

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/16/02/21/538d55cf7d745ac3c1f5743ba3faf4b0.jpg

Hanley failed to purchase a 1B glove over the offseason, as well.

R.A. Dickey was having his best year as a Blue Jay in 2015. Needing Surgery explains the Postseason better. There's a very good chance the Cy Young winner is back. I find that intriguing.

The Panda -

I LOVED the guy when he was this grossly overweight guy in SF who, despite being a blimp, could really stick it with the leather and bash the ball. Then last year he was not so lovable. This year even less so. 18 large a year for the next 4 years with ONLY a 5 large buy-out IF they actually don't want him an extra year. Poor Boston - yea - poor Boston (chuckle, chuckle). I wonder - seriously - does the guy even have a measurable IQ? Just askin'....

C'mon...he's just taking "Best Shape of His Life" to the next level.  Last year-sphere; this year- ellipsoid.

Spring training began today!  Tulo has added a leg kick to his swing, borrowing from Bautista and Donaldson.  Hutchison and Sanchez have hit the weights and added noticeable muscle.  Everyone is in the best shape of their lives!   It's going to be a great season.

tbh, i was thinking that later career tulo might benefit from doing that.

Looks like Panda is primed for a bounceback year for the Sox

Looks like he ate Prince Fielder.

Hey, if you are going to borrow from any hitter then Bautista & Donaldson are good ones to borrow from :)

So Bautista gave the jays a take it or leave it offer. Shatkins tried to negotiate but he told them not to bother.

sweet.

Bautista's quotes clearly spell out that he has no interest in a hometown discount. It's hard to really evaluate this without knowing what his demands are, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are above 5/100. He thinks very highly of his ability and his shape. He should go for every dollar he can get, especially after being underpaid for so many years. From the Jays standpoint, again, hard to say unless we know the exact cost it would take, but as I've said before, you can't overpay for the past when trying to assess future value. Let Shapiro be Darth Vader in that case.

Please.  Bautista has laid out his terms, which are entirely reasonable (i.e. no hometown discount this time).  Atkins and Shapiro are entirely reasonable if they decide that given his age and the team's budget, the terms do not make sense.

The interesting question is "what would the market for Bautista be?".  The numbers that rattle around in my brain are 3 years with an AAV of $22-$25million.  What do others think? I also know that I wouldn't be keen on signing him to an extension for that kind of money.

Bautista's quotes clearly spell out that he has no interest in a hometown discount.

Well yes, he literally said this.

Jose Bautista: 'I don't believe in hometown discounts. I've given this organization a 5-year hometown discount already."

Mike, I was thinking 3/75 but after reading more on the situation this morning I would assume that Bautista submitted something like 4-5/100-125 to the Jays.

I don't blame him, might as well keep it simple. If you want to sign me right now, it will take 4/100. If not, I'll become a FA after the season.

It's potentially a risk on his part too. He will be 36 at the end of this season, and if he had any sort of down year, he may not command as much as he would today.

we passed on price so we csn re sign our own guys right?

or was that BS and we're never signing anyone other than the happs of the world?

i guess that was always the safe bet.

i betcha he'd be morr open to a hometoen deal if this franchise hadn't completely wasted his last one.

until last year of course.

but we took care of that bout of craziness right quick. now we're back to the jays joey knows all too well.

it's simple, he put up numbers that are worth about double his contract. You think if we made the playoffs 3 out of the last 5 years he'd give us a hometown discount? He deserves to get paid, and he will.

It has no bearing on what he asks for going forward, but I strongly disagree with the notion that he gave the Jays any kind of "hometown discount" on the deal he signed after the 2011 season.  Both sides were taking on risk in that deal, and while as it turned out the Jays definitely reaped excess value from the contract, he was effectively taking out insurance on his 2011 performance not proving sustainable.  I can appreciate why he is looking to cash in on his next deal, but I'd be very wary about paying for what are almost certainly going to be his declining years. 

Four seamer, here's what he said:

"I think I signed a very lucrative deal that I was compensated very fairly at the time for my production. I just happened to have outplayed it severely. Those are facts," he told ESPN. "I'm not complaining and I'm not whining about it. I know what I signed and I never complained about it once. And I'm happy to play it out if that's what it takes."

Italics off!

Exactly, Four Seamer - it was a risk discount, not a hometown discount. There was lots of potential for that deal to be $60M flushed down a toilet. It wasn't, and instead was a great bargain. That's just how it (happily) worked out.

For this time, I wouldn't expect a hometown discount, either. That said, there are two other discounts that will need to be applied - the Senior's Discount (because, well, 36), and some sort of a single-source / single-buyer discount (since he won't have competing buyers and offers to play off eachother... that's just how in-contract negotiations work). A Victor Martinez deal might be a good starting point.

Bautista:

"I think they agree with me. It's just a matter of they're willing to go there. It's not just necessarily Ross and Mark. Some of that decision making has to come from ownership. How much? I don't know. I don't really know how long their rope is to make exclusive contract decisions like that."

yep.

calling the whole damn organization out.

someone other than me ain't pleased about this offseason.

"....we passed on price so we csn re sign our own guys right? or was that BS...."

To be fair, nobody in the organization ever said that.  You seem to be quoting some optimistic fans, perhaps, or maybe a blogger. 

I personally am on your side in this debate -- I think Rogers should pony up the money and sign him.  But I think you can make a legitimate argument for signing Bautista without inventing fictional quotes or accusing the organization of "BS" over something they never said.

Victor Martinez was $68 over 4 years. I suspect Bautista would be very insulted with that offer. Might be good for Encarnacion, but not Bautista who can still play the field.

My gut says he would ask for $20+ a year over 4+, something like $100 over 4 as a 'I'd sign right now' but would take $100 over 5. What does he get in the end? Hard to say. I never thought Chris Davis would get $161 mil last winter and he isn't as good as Bautista, younger but not better.

Martinez' bWAR totals for the five years ending 2014: 3.6, 3.2, 0, 1.3, 5.4
Bautista's bWAR totals for the five years ending 2015: 8.1, 3.5, 4.1, 6.1, 5.1..

The Martinez deal will likely turn out horrifically for the Tigers, of course, but Bautista's market value is obviously quite a bit higher than Martinez.

OK - here's the good news in 2017...

We'll have FOUR seriously good bats in 2017... Travis (when he gets back) continues to be a well above average bat. Tulo's new leg kick returns him to his Colorado production, Donaldson continues to be god(ish). AND, we have ONE other top bat as follows:

Knowing we can't sign BOTH this Spring Training we get whichever one will sign for 4 years (perhaps + a one year option) and pay him the 24 million the two will earn in 16 (Bau $14 million and EE 10 million) - OR if necessary we add a 5 million $ bonus to that as well. The other guy gets us a supplemental first rounder in next years draft.

In 17 I can see: Pompey or Saunders in L, Pillar in CF with Alford in RF, Bautista at first (OR Smoak/Cola) with EE at DH (IF he signs and we pass on Bautista), Travis at 2nd, Tulo at SS, The Rainmaker at 3rd, Martin at C and IF EE is gone I see Smoak and Colabello in a platoon at DH.

With three of: Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna and Hutchison holding the top three starting spots and perhaps the loser of those four and or Estrada, Happ and a cast of thousands vying for the last two spots. i see us still in the running to return to the World Series in 2017 - and we'll be repeat WS CHAMPS!!

I guy can dream, can't he?

Jose Bautista on Rogers Communications:

"It's no secret that in a publicly traded company, everybody can track their performance fairly easy. It's not a secret, it's out in the public. Stock prices are monitored very closely by the whole financial world and I think there's a direct correlation with the success of their earnings per share after we started experiencing success. Are they going to put it out in the media and say because of the Jays we made all of this money? No. But everybody can read between the lines. Nobody has a way to measure how much money the team makes when we win because of the way that we're structured. It's really unfair to talk about revenue, payroll and all of that stuff to me, for this organization, are non-existent."

preach it, Joey!

Apologies for the earlier italics.

And yes, Bautista certainly knows how to play the negotiate in public game.

Sorry, I was thinking generally when I was talking about Martinez, more thinking about the 4 year length than the particular dollars. I was thinking (but forgot to note) that you'd certainly have to apply a premium to it since Bautista can still competently field his position (arm injury aside). I would actually be expecting a 4 year deal approaching $20M/year. If he has his heights set significantly higher, though, that might be too big of a gap to bridge.

More important, I hope that the conversations included frank-yet-respectful dialogue about when and how to handle a transition out of right field.

"there's a direct correlation with the success of their earnings per share after we started experiencing success"

Is this actually true? I mean in general, is this something we can expect going forward, or are we talking about a coincidence? Or somewhere in the middle where an extreme situation with 20+ years of pent up demand did have a big impact on Rogers Communication's 2015 year?

I completely agree with Bautista's comments (cited upthread) about Rogers and the profits they made last season.  I also agree with another comment by Bautista today:  he said he doesn't believe in "budget and payroll" because he knows exactly how baseball works.  He is correct.  "Payroll" is an arbitrary number that can be easily changed at any time.  The owners have to assess the costs and benefits of any payroll decision, and they can increase the payroll at any time if they think the benefits outweigh the costs.  In the case of Bautista, the cost of not signing him is not just the potential damage to the team's performance on the field, but also the potential damage to the owner's profits and the potential damage to the corporate brand and public image.  Those factors have to be considered, and they could potentially lead to a decision to increase payroll.

Of course Rogers has shown a lot of disregard for their brand and their image in the past, so maybe they don't care very much.  They're not necessarily the most logical or far-sighted corporation in the world.  So we'll see what happens.

I've heard some stuff that JB's all over real estate investments, etc, looking to build an empire or something. I think he feels he doubled his contract value, which was $15 - I can see him asking for $150/5.

Well, here's hoping you have a heckuva last year for the Jays, Mr. Bautista.

If he is insisting on 5 years, there should be no deal.

Which is too bad, but if he won't negotiate, it is out of the team's hands.

I see Bautista as the type of guy who would be happy to end his career in Toronto *after* he's no longer worth his contract.
I just hope he doesn't end up in the AL East. Boston already has too many batters who can't field.

Bautista could replace Sandoval at third for Boston!

I would suspect that Bautista will still be in the contract he signs in the next 6-12 months after he's no longer worth his contract.

oh dear lord Heyman saying we're in hard on Jay Bruce.

Rosenthal just confirmed. Where would he play?

I just read "a deal could be in the works". No.

Hopefully salary dump and we get Cody Reed?? Yikes.

No way is anyone talking 5 years and $150 million for Bautista - not even Bautista or his agent.

Dave Cameron wrote well about this and we discussed his proposal a bit on the Box:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-craft-an-extension-for-jose-bautista/

his proposal was a three year $75 million extension - which I supported at the time and a several other posters thought was too rich.

the length of the contract is not that relevant.  If Jose wanted 5 years (highly unlikely IMO at his age) than the AAV drops significantly.  3/75 or 5/95? 

Both sides are smart in these negotiations - i think Jose himself demonstrated that in his comments.  And kudos to him for calling out Rogers - it's not just us fans that get frustrated by penny-pinching ownership - I'm sure the players aren't thrilled being 14th in payroll after putting together an epic run for a big market team.   

Here's a Rogers Communications/Blue Jays story that explains why Rogers has been "thrifty" with the Jays.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/no-love-for-blue-jays-in-rogerss-sports-spending-blame-an-accounting-rule/article28709405/

oh no Rosenthal's sources are confirming we're going after bruce.

And now Ken Rosenthal is confirming that the Jays are trying to acquire Jay Bruce.  The rumor, apparently, is that he could be swapped for Michael Saunders and a marginal prospect.  And I would have to assume that the Jays would get salary relief too, since Bruce is collecting a much bigger salary ($12.5-million) than Saunders this year. 

Any thoughts?  At a glance, Bruce hasn't had a good hitting season since 2013, and I don't know about his defence, but maybe Saunders is not recovering from his injury as strongly as the Jays had hoped.

Apparently there's a third team, and that third team needs a LF badly. The Angels, they're possibly getting Saunders.

saunders is better than bruce.

so is revere.

and pompey.

CF, Jay Bruce is not a good defender.

Brook Jacoby was Bruce's hitting coach when he was good. Maybe he thinks that he can fix him.

Wow, Sandoval is a large person.

The Jays' choices regarding Bautista are the same as they have always been: a) overpay him for his decline years or b) watch him hit home runs for another team, quite possibly the Red Sox. Neither option is good. The only option that is good is for Joey Bats to stay young forever. He'll try his best, but it won't happen.

Rogers won't pay to re-sign Bautista unless their spreadsheets say that the return on investment would be greater than if they didn't sign him. I expect an eternal sequence of fiscally responsible 83-79 seasons going forward - probably with Eric Wedge in the dugout - but I have often been wrong before.

Jay Bruce has some odd numbers the last two years. In 2015, he was good in June and July, but went into an awful slump in August, and didn't quite come all the way out of it in September. In 2014, he hit like gangbusters in June but then fell into a black hole in July and never emerged. His walk totals that year were weird: he drew 19 walks in April, but not a single walk in September.

He might have been playing through injuries the last two years, his swing might have a lot of moving parts, or he might get himself into momentous funks.

I can see why the Jays might want him, though. He hits home runs. Players who hit home runs tend to hit more home runs in Toronto. And he bats left, which will be helpful, given that Tulo, Bautista, EE, Donaldson and Martin all bat right. In a Toronto uniform, he might never face a left-handed starting pitcher.

Wrong guy to chase out of Cincinnati. Bruce has had 2 down years in a row and is a free agent after 2016 (team option for $13 mil or $1 mil buyout) so at least he'd be just a one year guy if he doesn't recover and if he does he becomes a stopgap for the kids in the outfield for a second year. At that price he just needs to be a 2 WAR player which he has been only 3 times (nearly a 4th), last in 2013. If the cost is just Saunders and a minor prospect then heck, it is just Rogers money. If it is more then no way. Still dream of Cincinnati deciding to say 'screw it' and trade Joey Votto to the Jays.

Can Bruce play first

Swapping Saunders for Bruce, especially if the Jays are eating up the difference, looks very bad. Even if Saunders is not 100%, and personally I don't think he ever will be, the Jays would be better off trading him to the Angels without Cincy involved and then signing a stop-gap like Austin Jackson to play LF for a year.

Jacoby was Bruce's hitting coach back when he was a good hitter, and Bruce has a team option for 2017 so if by some chance he does bounce back offensively, the Jays can pick up the option and put him at DH in 2017. That's really the only rationale I can see for this move, and even that depends on Jacoby being able to fix Bruce's bat. He's not a good defensive player.

Not a fan of the move the way it is presented, but let's see how it shakes out if it happens. If the Reds are picking up the difference, then I could at least call it a decent gamble. But if the Jays had $10M to spend, and chose to spend it by moving Saunders for Bruce, that would be disappointing.

A healthy Michael Saunders is better, in my opinion, than Jay Bruce. A cheaper Michael Saunders, with injury issues, is a better use of limited resources than Jay Bruce.

Getting more certainty with regards to health with Bruce and mitigating against a Saunders injury makes some sense if the Reds are covering the salary gap. It doesn't, in my opinion, if they aren't. If the Reds are covering the salary gap, it only stands to reason they are getting an increased prospect package. The Angels have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, which would increase the likelihood the Jays were including one or more prospects in the deal.

I see a very small chance I'm in favour of this deal, if and however it shakes out.

To make matters worse, Bruce had a horrible second half last year (65 wRC+ versus 115 wRC+ in the first half).

Perhaps Shapiro/Atkins's reasoning goes something like this:

- Saunders's knee (and health generally) is unlikely to hold up in the RC

- Saunders isn't controllable beyond 2016, whereas Bruce has an option for 2017. This could provide outfield depth for 2017 on a low-risk one-year deal, instead of a mega-deal for JB. By 2018, Alford can take over a starting outfield position

- Bruce is a buy-low candidate. He's still young (28), used to be good (2010-13), had a good first half last year (meaning there is still potential there), and would be reuniting with Jacoby

I'm not saying these are compelling reasons for making the deal - just speculating as to what the front office might be thinking.

Bruce's WAR from 2010-2015:

5.1, 3.0, 2.5, 4.2, -0.9, 0.1

Clearly he was a good player prior to 2014. The questions are, what happened to him in 2014-15, and can that be fixed?

His BB%, ISO, GB%, and Hard% in 2015 were right in line with his career average (including when he was good), while he actually struck out less than his career average. The low BABIP (.251) might be something that can correct itself. I think it's possible his bat can bounce back. If it's just Saunders for Bruce and the difference is being covered by the Reds, then I'd be fine with it. Anything beyond that would be pushing it. If no money if being covered, then I'd be perplexed.

WELL - it sure as all heck won't be a Moneyball move! The guys OBP the last two years is an average of .290 - yikes! In 15 he had 131 hits with 35 2x, 4 3x and 26 dingers... 65 extra base hits in 131 AB's - approximately 50% of his hits go for extra bases. BUT his OBP is gawd awful!

AND he's CHEAP at only 9 million a year MORE than Saunders! (Please note the last part is in a sarcasm font)

I'D VASTLY PREFER THEY CUT SAUNDERS (USE POMPEY) - and put that 12 + 3 million = 15 large - towards keeping one of EE or JoeyBats.

The ONLY way this makes any sense at all is if Brook Jacaby KNOWS something about why he's fallen down and can't get back up - AND - he knows how to fix it. Otherwise - dare I say it - this move stinks worse that my favorite sneakers.

S.H.I.T - not in 131 AB in 131 HITS! OOPS, gotta lay off the single malt when I wanna think...

You have to remember that Shapiro really likes the limited risk of short-term deals, at least at this juncture (Happ, Estrada, Chavez, Storen). Also, next year's free agent market is shaping up to be very weak. If the Jays aren't going to be able to afford any of the better free agents, and Bautista and Saunders are gone, *and* the Jays don't want to trade away any significant prospects for the foreseeable future, then Bruce's appeal becomes more apparent. If he can rebound even to the point of being a +2 WAR player, then his 2017 option will have real value to the Jays. If he doesn't rebound, fine - the Jays were going to lose Saunders to free agency anyway.

Dave Cameron ranks all 30 teams' off-seasons. Here are the AL East rankings:

7. TB (Grade: B)
9. Boston (B-)
13. NYY (B-)
19. Toronto (C)
27. Baltimore (C-)

Here's the writeup for Toronto, which I thought was a pretty fair (if cursory) assessment:

19. Toronto Blue Jays
Grade: C

The winter got off to a bit of an embarrassing start, with GM Alex Anthopolous walking away after the most successful season of his career, and the front office drama wasn’t a great way to follow-up on a fantastic 2015 season. But if we limit ourselves to the players acquired, I think the Blue Jays had a decent winter. I probably wouldn’t have given Marco Estrada $26 million, but J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez provide some necessary rotation depth, and using their outfield depth to bring in Drew Storen was a nice way to round out the bullpen.

There’s nothing particularly notable here as an amazing deal, but the Jays already have star players in place, and mostly needed to make sure those guys didn’t get dragged down by having too many replacement level scrubs in key positions. Adding solid role players isn’t the sexiest work, but it’s necessary, and the Jays did a decent job of that this winter, even after the drama that kicked off the offseason.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/grading-the-offseasons-for-all-30-teams/

The Bruce deal is almost done, per MLBTR.

I am more neutral than most on Jay Bruce. His problems with the bat look more fixable than most. I think that he would be a better defender in right than Saunders or Bautista.

I will wait for the details.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 7m7 minutes ago
Source: Teams reviewing medicals in Bruce/Saunders trade. If completed, Bruce to #BlueJays, Saunders to #Angels, prospect(s) to #Reds.

Well there you go. A review of Saunders's medicals should quash this deal pretty quickly.

Not to fear. The last page of his medical file states that he's now in the best shape of his life.

New thread up for the Jay Bruceness.

I'll reserve final judgement until we find out which prospect is involved... and I'm guessing it's someone of significance from the Jays side, because Bruce > Saunders, IMO.

No matter what, I'm happy to be rid of Saunders and his injury history. Jay Bruce is a legitimate power bat with major bouts of inconsistency... but his upside is huge when you consider the potential for a breakout season at Rogers Centre and reunited with Jacoby. Given the reasonable team option, this is a solid gamble by Shapiro.

I'm also on the "more neutral than most" side with Bruce. I give him a pass for 2014 due to May knee surgery. In a bit of symmetry, it was a knee meniscectomy, which he returned from in 3 weeks. Last year, it looked like he was rebounding well until his horrid August. Ignoring money, I like him better than Saunders. That $10M extra sure does complicate the equation, though.

Bruce is also $12.5MM and Saunders is $2.9MM. I'd rather Saunders than Bruce, but who knows about money involved, or who has prospects involved (other than the Angels).