Gerry, you hit a few key questions already, but I'd certainly be asking something like 'hey, the attendance and tv viewership went through the roof - where's the spending spike'?

Pretty sure I know the answers, but I'd ask anyway.

Looking forward to some feedback from any Bauxites in attendance!

Shapiro, Atkins and Gibbons are masters at deflecting questions and evading answers, but sometimes you can discern the truth from their tone of voice, or from the way that they phrase an answer.  So here are some questions that I'd love to hear posed to them, and maybe any Bauxites in the audience would be able to figure out the true meaning of their answers:
   
   1) Updates on the health of Travis and Saunders.  (Especially Travis, since we haven't heard anything about him for a while, whereas the Jays have stated that Saunders seems to be 100% now.)  These two guys could be among the keys for the Jays in 2016, so it would be great to get a sense of whether they will both bounce back from their difficult 2015 seasons.

   2) Are the Jays still taking a close look at good free-agent pitchers (especially relievers) or are they down to the minor-league contracts and waiver claims by now? 
 
   3) In a related question, how much confidence do the Jays have that they can find a good reliever from among pitchers like Schultz, Tepera, Jenkins, etc.  I'm sure Shapiro will say the usual diplomatic things about all of those guys, but it would be interesting to try to detect whether Shapiro has any enthusiasm for those guys, or are they cannon fodder?  And how about Rule 5 pick Joe Biagini?  Does he have a serious chance to make the roster?
 
   4) Are the Jays looking for another major-league catcher, or are they content to keep Thole on the 25-man roster for the entire season?

"Shapiro, Atkins and Gibbons are masters at deflecting questions and evading answers"

If that's the case then AA must be a deflector God and Beeston his superior. Seriously...have you been listening to these two the past 4 years? Because someone may be more likeable doesn't mean they bullshit any less. Ironically, JPR was the most honest when doing interviews with Toronto media.

I submitted my question for tonight, and it's simply a timeline on what renovations if any are being considered for the Dome other than grass. I was told last year that they were going to be replacing the PVC parts of the roof, but I didn't hear anything else after that.

And another question:

5) If Hutchison doesn't make the starting rotation, are the Jays better served by putting him in the major-league bullpen, or by letting him work on stuff as a starter in Buffalo?  That's a question where Shapiro and Gibbons might offer some hint of their thinking.  It's basically asking whether Hutch has the right repertoire to be an effective reliever in high-leverage situations, or do the Jays need him to be stretched-out and available as a starter at a moment's notice?

"....Because someone may be more likeable doesn't mean they bullshit any less...."

Wow, you're very sensitive to non-existent implications!  I wasn't suggesting in any way that Anthopoulos was less of a deflector than Shapiro.  Any GM is a deflector and evader (in their public comments anyway).  That's the nature of the job, and AA did the exact same as Shapiro and Atkins.

And I would never claim that AA is more "likable" or less of a "bullshit" artist than anyone else. 

Not everything here is about AA, you know!

Jer you pretty much nailed my question. It's probably a good thing I won't be there, as I'd be tempted to just read quotes from their Q3 earnings report where they trip over themselves talking about the profitability impact of the Jays' success last year to preface the "where's the spike?" question.

All I want to hear is:

1) All of Sanchez, Osuna, Hutch will be stretched out in ST.
2) Pompey has a roster spot to lose
3) Travis and Saunders are recovering on schedule.

Sorry if it has been mentioned, I didn't read the thread, but I'd like to hear answers to questions along these lines:

"Is the budget flexible enough to include additions at the deadline?"

"Should the Jays be in contention into the summer has the front office have planned flexibility to add payroll and/or trade younger players in July 2016?"

I'm hoping that the conservative off-season approach signals that this is in the plans, but youneverknow.

Anyone going?

apparently they are streaming this live on sportsnet.ca

So, anything noteworthy to report from the Leadoff?

Shapiro and Atkins talked positively about getting Josh Donaldson signed to a multi year deal. Execs usually don't speak so positively unless the deal is done or close to done.

The twitter-sphere is claiming that Gavin Floyd is about to be a Jay.

Gavin Floyd heading to the Jays, according to Heyman and Cotillo.

He's still good when he pitches, but injuries have been an issue the past few years.

Gerry, you hit a few key questions already, but I'd certainly be asking something like 'hey, the attendance and tv viewership went through the roof - where's the spending spike'?

Pretty sure I know the answers, but I'd ask anyway.

I'd certainly be asking about "the spending spike" from 'Big Spender jerjapan'. BSj, no doubt has laid out for a seasons' pair this offseason and I'm curious where they are. Obviously Big Spender isn't the sort who complains because others aren't spending money on a team he invests nothing more than complaining on the internet.

Pretty sure I know the answers, but I thought I'd ask anyway.

Jer you pretty much nailed my question. It's probably a good thing I won't be there, as I'd be tempted to just read quotes from their Q3 earnings report

Not much danger of you or jerjapan being at a seasons' ticket holders event. The chances are about the same as the PR advertisement that you tried to pawn off here as the "earnings report" being anything more than troll prop.

I am not going to believe anything said. I refuse to be set up anymore. It seems the same things are said every year and the same things are done each year.

What is said and what is done seems always dirrerent.

Quite a disappointing event. All I was able to learn tonight is where Shapiro lives and Atkins favourite adjective - "unbelievable".

Not much danger of you or jerjapan being at a seasons' ticket holders event. The chances are about the same as the PR advertisement that you tried to pawn off here as the "earnings report" being anything more than troll prop.

You're right - I gave up my seasons about a decade ago and only attend about 10 or so games per year now. Kudos on correctly guessing that there was no way I could possibly be there! Not sure if that was a poor joke (pun unintended) or some other kind of commentary on my character. Shrug. The stream was immensely boring though, and Buck was painful to listen to once again, so I'm happy to not have attended.

As for the PR advertisement I tried to "pawn off" as an earnings report ... I mean, it's a Rogers publication. They choose what to get excited about and what to highlight to shareholders. I didn't ask them to wax poetic about the Jays and while it's totally cool that they're proud of how their prized sports property added to their bottom line, it does beg the follow-up question.

They only produce 4 deliverables at the end of a quarter: the aforementioned Earnings Press Release, Supplemental Financial Information (which lays out the facts that they trumpet in the former) and two analyst related pieces (the call transcript and web cast). Not sure where else you'd have us look for a commentary on Rogers' financial results ;)

The twitter-sphere is claiming that Gavin Floyd is about to be a Jay.

He was offered a tryout with the O's at their minicamp last month. After breaking the same elbow twice and not pitching in more than 10 games since 2012, I'd have to imagine that it's a minor league deal with a shot at the big club. Nothing wrong with that I suppose.

Arizona is taking a look at Tyler Clippard, who is the only RP remaining that piques my interest. Maybe another solid arm on the back-end would give Sanchez more rope to figure things out as a starter.

"....the sort who complains because others aren't spending money on a team he invests nothing..."

You're right, it's outrageous!  It's almost as bad as those hypocritical people who complain about the weather, even though they have never invested in any stock in the Weather Channel.

The acquisition of Gavin Floyd is interesting. This might be a good case for Shapiro getting rid of the old Jays policy of refusing to give incentive clauses in contracts.  The Jays could perhaps lure pitchers like Floyd by offering incentives for the number of innings pitched in the majors. 

But one hopes it isn't one of those contracts with a March 31 opt-out clause, allowing him to depart the team if he isn't on the opening-day roster.

I am not going to believe anything said. I refuse to be set up anymore.

You ask a politician, or a PR man or any kind of company shill, you know you won't be getting the straight goods. It's not in their best interest to divulge that. Your only hope is to either read between the lines or count on them slipping up and revealing more than they intended.

The dudes on stage were there to sell a product and the faux intimacy was all part of that. It would have been naive for any attendees to have thought otherwise, or to have expected more.

Meh. These events are always the same. More deflector shields than in a Star Trek movie. There's no reason to expect anything else - part of a GM's job is to be able to spout optimistic platitudes on demand. There's nothing to gain from doing otherwise.

I don't expect anything from Gavin Floyd. If he's been hurt three years in a row, the odds are that this year will make it four. But it's a low-risk, high-upside signing, and you can't go wrong with those.

I echo Blarry's experience from last night. They spent 20 minutes talking about Shapiro's background and I learned that Atkins is definitely a puppet and prefaces everything he says with "That's a great question." He just really struck me as a dumb dumb.

I got to ask Shapiro how excited he must be to have Tulo and he told me, "I need to find a way to keep him healthy." Just the way he said it, was so robotic and focused, then he shook his head just thinking about it. Must be paranoid which helps explain the depth signings.

When I was on the field I stood where the mound markings were, and holy crap what an eye opener...it's REALLY far from home plate. Then I walked over to the hole in short stop and it's REALLY REALLY REALLY far. It just blew me away how far it actually is. Really hard to fathom how a guy like Chapman can throw that far at 100+ MPH.

But yeah, overall the event seemed like a waste and there were a lot of carpetbaggers/bandwagoners.

The Canucks do this yearly with all their season ticket holders at Rogers Arena. The difference is that they have an open floor with no prescreend questions. This is truely amazing. They get grilled with tough, thoughtout questions which they gladly answer. It's an open forum. It's gotten to the point where everyone knows Tanveer from Surrey because of the tough questions he asks. Too bad the Blue Jays just have a dog and pony show for theirs.

@dalimon5

haha yeah a baseball field is pretty big.

Especially when you start looking at 'routine plays'. Ie. pitches to the catcher, throws from ss to 1b.

I guess the distance might seem smaller the harder you throw.

Also, what's wrong with Roger's pocketing most of the profit?

If we earn more money than we spend do we give it back to our employers/clients?

what's wrong with Roger's pocketing most of the profit?

Rogers (sans apostrophe) is a corporation. They can behave as they wish and field any kind of team that they wish. We are consumers and can behave as we wish. If that means electing to not spend our money on a mediocre product, that's our prerogative.

We owe Rogers a debt of compliance no greater than the one they owe us.

So Chuck you agree that there's nothing wrong with Roger's pocketing the profit?

Obviously there's nothing wrong with customers choosing a different service provider or not watching the Jays.

The Jays sign Davis Aardsma as another bullpen option.

Gavin Floyd pitched out of the bullpen for the first time in his career in September for Cleveland and had success.  It's a good signing, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was able to stay healthy in the middle reliever role. Thumbs up also for the (David) Aardsma signing.  The "Davis" typo put me in mind of Davis Romero...

So Chuck you agree that there's nothing wrong with Roger's pocketing the profit?

Rogers can behave as they wish, but should be aware that their customers will also behave as they wish. If Rogers wants to play stingy and field a mediocre team, that's their choice. They'll see a drop in attendance and TV viewers but may ultimately decide that this equation is in fact more profitable.

They owe me nothing and I owe them nothing. It's not a fun way to have to be a baseball fan, but this is what you get with a corporate owner.

From a layperson's perspective (i.e., not that of a bean counter), Rogers seemed to have a lot of momentum coming out of last season. Enthusiasm was the highest it has been in two decades. Seats were being filled. TV was being watched. Swag was being bought. It would have seemed to me that they'd want to keep this juggernaut forging ahead. But I don't pretend to know more than Rogers about how to run a company and generate profits.

I don't think Roger's is feilding a mediocre product. I expect them to be good next year.

I agree with Mike - Floyd may make a good RP. He's been injured, but his limited performance and velo hasn't seemed to suffer much.

Huge meh on AArdsma. He's been thoroughly awful for a few years now, ever since he lost his velo.

The sheer volume of these veteran minor league signings is interesting - the FO is gonna have a lot of familiar names on the AAA roster, rather than the AAAA type player (Schultz, Cola) that AA sought out. Is this to enhance the relationship with Buffalo / Buffalo fans, or a true different approach by the FO? I'm not familiar with the type of AAA teams they used to field for Cleveland.

I do like both Aardsma and Floyd as low risk high reward (in keeping with my new big-spender Jer moniker), but agree with China - I hope they don't have April opt-outs.

Also Chuck, the irony is that if Roger's opened up their wallets and signed guys like Pujols, Sananta, Fielder, then they probably would be a mediocre team right now.

I don't think Roger's is feilding a mediocre product. I expect them to be good next year.

And that's your prerogative as a consumer, to decide if the product you are paying for is worth it.

I think they might be a strong team next year, but I would have liked to have seen a little more off-season activity to increase those chances. If I find the product substandard, I will bail without apology.

Richard Griffin weighs in on last night's events. He wasn't impressed.

Also Chuck, the irony is that if Roger's opened up their wallets and signed guys like Pujols, Sananta, Fielder, then they probably would be a mediocre team right now.

That's a straw man argument. I don't know that many around here defended the contracts those players signed.

to be honest, i think our gut reaction to this front office was generally correct. this event did nothing to change my mind. probably just reinforced it.

the grass 180 was an annoying bit of pandering. and saying they'd be "honoured" to have Bautista back is condescending BS.

In general i think they think we're dumb rubes, when we're arguably one of the savviest fan bases anywhwre.

If they don't show a knack for acquiring elite talent, their stay here is gonna be a rocky one until the end.

BSN on Twitter quoted Atkins saying that Floyd "could be SP or RP", so there is a chance they could try him out in the pen. His elbow/arm may prevent him from logging a SP workload going forward, but he's still young enough (33 going on 34) to carve out a 2nd career as a reliever. He's an interesting guy to keep an eye on this spring.

The way this FO has gone about building the bullpen is very encouraging, IMO. Failed starters, minor league signings, a Rule 5 pick, etc. That's a much better way of going about finding some bullpen arms than turning your better SP prospects into relievers.

"In general i think they think we're dumb rubes, when we're arguably one of the savviest fan bases anywhwre."

The fact that you and many others are taking anything said at this event at face value kind of contradicts your claim of the fan base being savvy. There are many words I can use to describe this city's fans, but savvy is one of the last ones, especially based on the social media behavior of a large group of them this winter.

I'm definitely not taking this event at face value, as it was so transparent. That's the point.

As for the fanbase, it's pretty incredible how many thriving online jays communities there are, all with an excellent understanding of modern baseball analysis.

and there was plenty of good, savvy reasons to be upset at hoe this offseason went down, and how they tried to sell it to us.

"I'm definitely not taking this event at face value, as it was so transparent. That's the point."


But what was anyone expecting from this? It was always going to be a cliche-filled event to get people excited for the season. They pre-screened the questions for this event years before Shapiro was even hired so it's not like they were more open before. It's always been like this. I don't see why any of Shapiro or Atkins' answers should be scrutinized or taken seriously. They gave the answers they were supposed to give. Just like Gibbons did not dismiss Pillar batting lead-off when that option was brought up to him, even though he probably has no intention of doing it. Just take it for what it is.

I am uncomfortable with how comfortable they are spouting such transparent BS.

Gideon Turk, who sometimes has good sources, is tweeting this:  "Blue Jays sign Gavin Floyd to Major League deal. $1M base salary + $1M in potential bonuses based on active days on roster."

If this is true, it is what I had suggested upthread:  an incentive-laden contract for Floyd, potentially doubling his salary if he makes the roster for most of the season.  It suggests that the Jays, as I had hoped, are ditching the old policy of no incentive clauses.

I think it's a good precedent, opening the door for the Jays to delve more into these types of creative contracts and allowing them to acquire a broader range of players.  I have no idea why these contracts seemed to be verboten in the AA/Beeston era.  Was it a Rogers policy, or a Beeston policy, or an AA policy?  In any event, I'm glad that it seems to be gone.

The fact that Floyd seems to be getting a major-league contract (rather than a minor-league contract) is a limitation on the team's flexibility, but it does have one advantage: it means that Floyd won't have the ability to opt-out of his deal at the end of spring training.  Of course he'll be difficult to option to the minors, so the Jays might still lose him if he fails to make the 25-man roster.

I guess the Jays will now have to drop someone from the 40-man roster, but that shouldn't be too difficult.

And one more point on the Floyd contract:  there will be detractors who think the Jays could have signed him at a cheaper price.  But let's face it, the only true question about Floyd is the state of his health.  When healthy, he seems to be an effective major-league pitcher, either as a starter or a reliever.  We can only guess at the state of his health, but I'll wager that the Jays have a very good idea of his health -- and they will give him another physical before finalizing the deal.   So, assuming that the Jays are reasonably smart in assessing his health, this seems to be a good deal.  The Jays are evaluating Floyd's health as good enough to warrant a $1-million gamble.  Their knowledge of a player's health is not perfect, but it's a lot better than mine.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and I'll assume that his health justifies the price.

i don't see why anyone would complain about the price. it doesn't get much cheaper than that.

in cases like this i worry about dedicating roster spots to guys who don't deserve it.....but in this case floyd is a good bet to at least be an effective reliever, with the big risk being health - which won't cost a roster spot if it flares up again.

and of course this price makes him easy to send down if he doesn't earn a spot anyways.... the incentive being based on roster days actually makes sending him down the CHEAPER option, so there's not much incentive to keep him up if he doesn't earn it.

Some of our GMs have traded for damaged goods.

Ash : M Sirotka.

AA : S Santos.

I do not think Gillick or Richardi got fleeced.

ST will start soon. I must get in the best shape...

Warming up.

The Jays gave Delabar $840k. That was more of an overpay and more unreasonable than Floyd for $1M guaranteed, IMO.

With Floyd it's not about performance. Even after his injuries, he's put up a 0.7 WAR in 68 MLB innings (2014 + 2015), which covers 9 starts and 7 relief appearances. With him it's about health, and I think $1M is a reasonable gamble either way.

"....The Jays gave Delabar $840k. That was more of an overpay and more unreasonable than Floyd for $1M guaranteed...."

Good point.  I'm still wondering why Delabar is getting that much, when he seems pretty unlikely to crack the major-league roster.

I am a flex pack holder, not a season ticket holder, and so I was not invited to yesterdays event. But I did note several comments about the size of the crowd. The common wisdom is that teams see an attendance boost the year after they win and the Jays seem to be confirming that rule.

My flex pack has seen big changes. In the last few years the Jays would block off some seats for the flex pack holders. Flex packers did not have to pick their seats until July 31st. I would often call less than seven days before a game and get seats in the front or second row in the 200 level above first or third base.

The rules changed this year and now the Jays no longer block off seats for flex packs. As a flex pack holder I have to select my games when I buy the flex pack, thereby taking away the flex in the flex pack. When I did pick my seats back around December 1st last, most of my seats are between the sixth and tenth rows of the 200 level. At the time I thought to myself the Jays must have sold a lot of season tickets and flex packs for 2016. Yesterdays attendance says they have sold a lot of season tickets.

As an aside, my flex pack no longer guarantees access to post-season tickets.

There are two thing to note in regard to buying tickets. First, with the large number of extra season tickets, when single game tickets go on sale next week you could see sellouts happening quickly for some premium games. It could be back to how it was when the Dome opened, you had to buy your tickets in the winter and make it a non moveable date to go to the Jays.

Secondly, I wonder if a lot people bought season tickets just to get access to the post season. If so there could be a lot of tickets on stubhub in April and May.

People complain when the Jays do nothing. People complain when the Jays do something. If I didn't think it was impossible, I'd think they complain in their sleep.

Gavin Floyd meets the Jays requirements for what they want or he doesn't get signed. If he gives them less, it's not a big cost. If he gives them more, it's a bonus. David Aardsma is a Minor League signing; there's no such a thing as a bad Minor League signing.

I'm sure in a few years, if the Price contract looks terrible, people will say that not many posters on this site wanted to resign Price.

My memory is that a lot of people wanted Pujols/Fielder.

I'll look through the archives and see how bad my memory actually is lol.

I wanted fielder for sure. Though to be fair, that was 5yrs ago now, when defensive valuation was tougher. Offensively he's been good to great in 3 of the 4yrs so far.

If the Jays are going to give a position player a big contract, I would prefer that they give it to a player at a premium position (C, SS, CF, 3B, 2B), unless the player is a really high-level talent in his prime. I was (and am) happy the Jays stayed out of the Fielder sweepstakes.

Donaldson is an interesting case. He's a great player, probably the best Jays infielder since Alomar, but he also plays all-out, making him prone to getting banged up, and he's now 30 years old, i.e. just starting to exit his prime. I would be happy to see the Jays sign him to a four- or five-year deal, but going year-to-year wouldn't be the worst thing either.

In the big picture, it will be more important for Toronto to acquire young talent in abundance, as Anthopoulos was adept at doing. I would rather see the organization go after multiple talented young players like Moncada than one big bat at a non-premium position like Fielder or Davis. One area that Anthopoulos missed out on was the Cuban/Japanese/Korean markets, which turned out some wonderful players during his tenure, although he did acquire some excellent Latin American prospects, including Osuna, Barreto, Guerrero and Alvarez.

A couple years ago, a starting staff of Penny, Roberto Hernandez and Gavin Floyd would have been a pretty good rotation. Buffalo is going to be.... interesting....

Aardsma ... meh. I would still like to see another lefthander for the bullpen. Loup was not that terrific last year, and it would be nice to bring in someone for specific situations.

"Good point. I'm still wondering why Delabar is getting that much, when he seems pretty unlikely to crack the major-league roster."


I'm curious about that myself. Delabar was a surefire non-tender candidate. He was very good two years ago, and his minor league performance the past two years still shows swing and miss stuff, but relievers are volatile, and he hasn't resembled a capable MLB reliever since 2013. Maybe they think he can be fixed. Still, Floyd's far more likely to earn his $1M than Delabar is his salary, IMO. Assuming he actually stays healthy, of course.

My gut says to stay year to year with Donaldson unless he signs a very team friendly deal.

As to the others mentioned I thought Pulps would've been good at the time but not at over $200 million. Fielder I was very nervous about. It's rare I will say go ahead with a big pitcher though as the risk is extreme.

If I'm picking up pre-Arb years, I'm going 6-8 years, depending on age, with anyone.

I'm not 100% on exactly how this rule works, but Delabar can be cut before the end of spring training for 1/6th of the contract.  He's slightly more expensive than a couple of rule v pics for a look-at in spring training.  why not? 

I believe KC just did this with Coleman and it's February. 

Just throwing this out there for discussion in a slow month for baseball news:

BK: Do you agree it would be wise for the Jays to send Osuna down and work him into the rotation now? His Fastball/Change/Slider mix feels like a starter to me.

Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re stuck, because he’s pretty important. If they want to try Osuna as a starter down the road, they should plan ahead of time, notify all parties involved, and get him on a winter throwing program. I don’t think this is a decision you make close to ST

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-2516/

As I prepare myself for the new season. I remember the Jays losing 100 games in each of their first 3 seasons.

Also I now remember a great manager for the jays. As I recall he was able to manage in his sleep. The great Bobby Mattic.

My guts tells me Donaldson would break the bank.

Bautista talking about ending his career with the Jays is great PR.
At best it just means Toronto doesn't have to offer more than other teams.
As if.

"Just throwing this out there for discussion in a slow month for baseball news:"


Just my opinion, but I think if Osuna spends the full 2016 season as a reliever, then that's where he will be long-term. It takes a lot of time to stretch someone out, and Osuna's case is unique because he lacks innings to begin with. He will be 21 years old in 2016 and he's only started 27 pro games. His IP max prior to 2015 was 43, and his career high in 2015 (counting the playoffs) was close to 80 entirely out of the pen. Randomly stretching him out would make him a major injury risk, so I agree with Sullivan completely in that they'll need to spend a lot of time getting him prepared for that workload. Another season in the pen in 2016 will hurt those chances a lot, IMO.

It's a shame because Osuna has the repertoire to be a starter, but using him in the pen in 2015 was really short-sighted despite his success. If he spent all of 2015 in the minors as a SP and accumulated 100+ innings, he'd easily be a top 100 prospect in baseball and possibly a rotation candidate in 2017 or even late 2016.

However, there is value in being a 1 WAR reliever, so if he can do that for five more years, it wouldn't be the worst outcome. Another question is whether his arm and mechanics can handle a SP workload. Internally they (AA's regime) may have felt he couldn't. We will see if Shapiro/Atkins agree with that, but it might be too late to switch it up regardless.

Sale spent his 1st 2yrs as an RP. So did escobar. so did david wells. so did many others.

it's not really a big deal.

Sale finished off his draft year with 33 innings in the bullpen after having thrown 103 in college that year. He followed that with a year of relief before moving into the rotation the year after. Kelvim Escobar had a 164 inning minor league season at the age of 20, some starts in the minors before his half year closing, followed by another 12 relief outings before starting 10 games. He then posted two years with an ERA over 5. Wells had about 500 innings under his belt as a minor league starter before his debut at 24.

Osuna has 110 minor league innings and about 30 other innings between mexico and the AFL in his career before this year, and his 69.2 innings this year is 26 innings more than his previous high. And he's 21 with a TJ scar. I'm not saying it can't be done, but it's certainly not the same situation as the three examples you mentioned, or probably 99% of the other examples you could find. That's a whole lot of added uncertainty and risk vs having a shut-down reliever already in-hand.

osuna has pitched many innings in extended spring training, winter leagues, and mexican junior leagues, tournaments, and showcases that you won't find on his stats page. the guy has been pitching his whole life

You make this sound like it's a phenomenon unique to Osuna, as opposed to something almost any non cold-weather ballplayer does. And yet, you often hear about players getting exhausted during their first couple full years because they're not used to throwing that much. That's because they're throwing more regularly and at higher intensity with more workouts in between than they ever have before. This is something Osuna hasn't done for more than a couple months as a starter, whereas the vast majority of the others have. Again, it's not impossible to convert him back to a starter, but it's a whole lot more uncertainty and risk than simply putting someone who has shouldered a full starting schedule relatively unscathed in recent memory back in the rotation after a temporary hiatus. If the team was going to put him at AA to do it, I'd probably be ok with that from a developmental standpoint (it's easier to skip a start if he's fatigued, or pull him early, etc), but then that's really about developing him as a starter for 2017, not 2016.

The problem with Osuna is health.
They got a lot of bullpen candidates heading into spring training. If you have 3 or 4 guys that pitch better than him, you can consider sending him down to stretch, but what if he's your best reliever?

To succeed this year, they need an amazing bullpen because most of the starters will struggle early.
I don't see how having Osuna in the rotation on a low pitch count help.

I think if you want Osuna to start this year, you need a horse in there like Price.

I totally agree with Spiffy.

On top of that Sale and Escobar wanted to start. Osuna says he's happy in the pen.

How would you like to take a year off to train for a position that you like less than the one you currently have?
I've been sticking to the same job for 20 years. That's how I feel about it and Osuna still makes 5 times more than me.

2017 will be an interesting year. If we are rebuilding or trying to somehow contend.
This was brought up earlier that we should still be able to win 80 something games. Most people seem to think that we can.
This FO seems to believe in plugging holes. Depth is important. They showed me that by getting Happ and Chavez.
That covers injuries.

The deadline deals cost us some near ready arms. But I see 3 or 4 that will be near ready for 2017. I think Greene, Robson and Hollon will get to AA in 2016. Greene maybe AAA. Reid-Foley and J Harris should have success at Dunedin.
The FO has to somehow provide a good pen in 2017, without paying M Lowe prices.

2017 is also the year to make Osuna a starter. His IP would have limits. J Key went from the pen to a 4 man rotation.

Great read on just how unique a pitcher Buehrle was - the lousy velocity, the great fielding and greatest? pickoff move, the great tempo, the perfect game - Ultimately, I think we got exactly what we paid for out of the guy. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-last-of-mark-buehrle/

Am I the only one hoping he signs for the cards and gets a nice playoff run in before retiring?  All he's done and he only has 6 PS games ....

The following incorporates idea from a Richard S.S.'s previous post.

If Osuna is to start, how about putting him to build up his inning in Buffalo. For rotation, we have 6 guys (Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Happ, 2 of Chavez, Sanchez, Hutchison), plus Chad Jenkins whom Richard S. S. thinks didn't get enough of a chance to prove Jenkins could be better. Now with Storen coming in, the spot vacant by Osuna can be filled from Schultz, Loup, Biagini, Venditt, Tepera and Leon, not to mention Diamond, Copeland are available as starter.

For Richard S. S., given your list of relievers on another thread, would you consider trading away Delabar as the PTBNL to the Mets for completing the trade Darrell Ceciliani ? The Jays shall get some cash in return. Out of the Mets and the Nationals, Mets' bullpen would be weaker.

LeBlanc was a MLB starter/reliever. He could do the same in Buffalo. In essence, Buffalo has Diamond, Copeland, Penny., Hernandez and Floyd. LeBlanc would be the Buffalo's Sanchez. Hutchison -- if he is reassigned -- Diamond and Copeland can be called up during the season for starting. Shall the veterans Penny, Hernandez and Floyd could just take their time to build up their performance from injuries and whatnots they had; so come September, they can be called up to give extra boost to the rotation for postseason ?

"You make this sound like it's a phenomenon unique to Osuna, as opposed to something almost any non cold-weather ballplayer does."

no, it's not entirely unique to osuna, though his specific situation isn't all that common, given his quick rise and lack of opportunity above short season ball. The same would apply to any other IFA who made it to mlb without having a healthy year above short season ball.

The kid has been pitching his whole life, all year round, and the listed 19ip and 43ip in 2011 and 2012 simply do not mean anything.

"If Osuna is to start, how about putting him to build up his inning in Buffalo"

why not build up those innings in toronto?

Jesse Chavez won his arbitration hearing and will earn $4m in 2016.

why not build up those innings in toronto?

Well, I certainly wouldn't expect him to be able to go 5+ innings with any consistency in the rotation, so unless you're saying to make him a long-man, he leaves a lot of innings on the table for a bulpen that already has to support Happ (not known for lengthy outings) and Estrada (who I feel has higher blow-up start potential than the average guy).

given his quick rise and lack of opportunity above short season ball

His quick rise (his promotion to the majors) curtailed his development as a starter, albeit with wonderful immediate results. As for his 'lack of opportunity', that's an interesting take on major arm surgery. Tommy John surgery isn't a death-knell for a starter, but it's not a trivial matter for their development, either.

Again, it's not impossible, but it's not simply a matter of, "C'mon, he's been doing it his whole life! What could possibly go wrong?" There's significantly more that can go wrong in his case than the typical case of a pitcher that spends his first year in the majors in the pen. Weigh that against what he has to offer now as a shut-down reliever, and I think it's too risky of an experiment.

The fact that Osuna has been pitching competitively for his whole life (perhaps being overused at too young an age) might be an argument in favour of aiming to get 50-60 high-leverage innings per year from him instead of 200+ IP/year in the rotation. Just a thought -- I really have no idea which is a better plan for him in terms of future health and performance.

Blue Jays sign Gavin Floyd to a MLB deal $1.0 Million, designate Chad Jenkins for assignment; hire Eric Wedge as Player Development Advisor.

Not surprised Chavez won his hearing, I was surprised by how low both of the numbers were TBH.

Chad Jenkins DFAed to make room on the 40 man for Gavin Floyd.  Interesting to see him go over offseason adds like Pat McCoy.  Hopefully he ends up with an NL team and gets a real chance to stick in the pen somewhere.

I fully think that to get the absolute most out of Osuna and Sanchez they should be late inning/Closer two-inning Relievers. That should get Sanchez around 130.0 high pressure IP and Osuna around 100.0 high pressure IP. Sanchez starts in 2017 and is pitching around 200.0 innings in 2018 (if he survives the Rotation). Osuna repeats as a late inning/Closer two-inning high pressure Reliever. He could then start in 2018 and be at 200.0 innings in 2019 (if he survives the Rotation).

I have no idea who the PTBNL would be except when the Mets side talked about the deal they mentioned cash. With the DFA of Jenkins, the Jays might work out a PTBNL or cash deal, or he might get claimed.

MLBTR had Chavez at $4.7M, so either way the Jays saved from that projection, at least. I thought $3.6M was low for Chavez so not surprised he won his case.

Wedge in the Jays organization will definitely make people question Gibby's job security.

I concur with greenfrog -- which is a better plan for [Osuna] in terms of future health and performance.

Chad Jenkins... would he be a trade asset ? If Delabar's days as a MLB reliever is limited, why not trade him as a PTBNL ? AA was known for trade away guys like Vernon Wells who was not as useful as expected.

About hiring Eric Wedge, he was once an Cleveland Indians' manager -- the Indians' connection is working in T.O.

BBRef has included Osuna's Mexican League numbers at age 16. He threw 19.2 IP, pitched in 13 games, and started 2. They included his AFL numbers in 2014 where he threw 12 innings in relief. Anything that he may have pitched outside of those and his regular minor league numbers is a complete guessing game. "He's been pitching his whole life" is a generality, not something that indicates he's ready for an increased workload after an entire season in the pen at age 20.

I remember reading that one reason pitchers get TJS at a young age is by throwing too much at a young age, so the fact that Osuna got it at age 18 probably means he was throwing a lot. That's fine. However, his innings still need to be built up to a point where he can reasonably be counted on to handle a SP's workload. That's not going to happen after pitching 40 innings in 2014, and 80 innings (all out of the pen) in 2015. They either need to demote him and stretch him out, or he's a reliever again and the chances of him becoming a SP down the road gets a little smaller (not impossible but more difficult).

Not to put the cat amongst the pigeons, but, if Drew Hutchison wins the 5th Starter job, who are Starters #6, #7 and #8?
Another consideration, with Osuna, Storen, Cecil, Floyd, Sanchez and Chavez in the Bullpen who's the #7 Reliever? It just might not be Loup.

Would demoting Osuna and stretching him out help ? The demotion will create a vacancy in the bullpen. Given Storen, Cecil and Richard S.S.'s list of relievers who could have in Toronto, that vacancy can be filled with ease. Whoever takes Osuna's place -- persumably one on that list -- is going to increase Jays assets and may help the team in trade in future. Osuna is still a Jays for a long time, persumably.

In my case, I think the Osuna "decision" is one more experiment that COULD work, but that hasn't necessarily gone well for the Jays in recent history, just IMHO. I know some of it was out of necessity, and the players obliged by "trying", but I can think of any number of things that didn't work out as well as hoped or "might be":
-Colabello (or Valencia) in LF
-Bautista at 3B (I know, Lawrie was hurt, but still)
-EEE at 3rd. Lately, EEE at 1st. Yes, he can do it, but, it's not ideal. (According to BBRef, his middle name is Elpidio, so he really is EEE). Hard to say exactly if he just took another step forward in the last few years, or if 3B really was messing him up - but it does appear that comfort level matters. Lifetime, EEE has an OPS of just over 900 at 1B and DH, and 784 at 3B. (and that's the last time I'll be using EEE :-)
-Brett Lawrie at 2nd seemed to be much less successful.
-Brett Cecil as closer

Cecil has (had?) problems at closer, but excels at setup man, which is nearly the same role in terms of daily prep, etc, just an inning earlier. Yet, we want to completely change Osuna's schedule, his preparation, his velocity (he can't throw 100% anymore), his strength training, etc, just to see IF he can do it? When he has already stated he'd prefer to be a reliever? Pitcher's psyche can be a fragile thing. He was already worth 1.7 bWAR in '15. Sure, he could get to 3-4 WAR, but he could also need another TJ, and then he might be done. TJ surgery is NOT an automatic comeback, contrary to what many it feels like. Yes, there are many more success stories than there used to be, but there are still a lot of players who don't come back from it.

OTOH, I think Sanchez is much better positioned to try starting. Keeping Cecil/Osuna/Storen in the pen as a strong 1-2-3 punch, where, if used correctly, 2/3 can go on any given day, and all 3 not infrequently would really help the confidence of the club. Storen complained of wearing down towards the end of last year, and I think Osuna was also getting a little gassed. Using them as Closer 1 and Closer 1a would help keep both of them fresh. Storen, if rested, gets the save opportunity. Otherwise, Osuna's right in there. And if Cecil is tired, Osuna pitches the 8th, Storen the 9th.

To me, this debate is too much fantasy/video game projection where any pitcher can switch effectively, it just might take some time. I think there's a real risk that you totally lose Osuna's contributions permanently.

I've just been reading about Gavin Floyd's first appearance of last season.  It came in the 7th inning of a game on Sept. 3 against the Jays. From a report on a Cleveland website:  "Josh Donaldson grounded out to shortstop, Jose Bautista lined out to left and Edwin Encarnacion grounded out to third. Floyd threw 15 pitches, 11 for strikes, with a fastball topping out at 95.2 mph, a slider at 92.4 and a curveball at 83.1."

Also, from a scouting report at BlueJaysPlus, describing his Cleveland bullpen appearances last year: "His famously huge curveball didn’t have quite the bite it used to, but was still definitely an above-average pitch."

The more that I read about Floyd, and the more that I look at his new contract (with up to $1-million in incentives based on "number of days on the active roster"), the more that I think the Jays are penciling him in to a middle-relief role in the bullpen -- to begin with, at least.  If everything goes perfectly, he might eventually get a shot at the rotation, but I think the Jays see him as a middle reliever, with the potential to move into a higher-leverage role if others falter or are injured.  Keeping him in the bullpen could also reduce the risk that he'll repeat any of the several injuries that he's suffered over the past three years.

So, looking at it this way, Floyd seems like one of those "buy-low" candidates for the bullpen who can be real bargains if all goes well.  It also increases the chances that the Jays will give Aaron Sanchez a legitimate shot at winning and keeping a rotation slot.  The spring competition for the 5th rotation slot will be a fascinating one, with Hutchison, Chavez and Sanchez all having legitimate chances.

Let's assume that Sanchez wins a rotation slot.  The bullpen then emerges as:  Osuna, Storen, Cecil, Chavez, Floyd, and probably Loup (since a second LHP will be needed), and possibly Hutchison if the Jays don't think that he needs to be stretched out in Buffalo.  Personally I prefer to see Hutch in Buffalo to begin the season; let him force his way back to the majors with a strong performance at the AAA level.  So there is probably still one vacancy in the bullpen, to be fought over by the likes of Tepera, Delabar, Schultz, Biagini, Hernandez and others. 

Bottom line: that's a good-looking bullpen, even without Sanchez, and it also helps to ensure that the Jays have lots of rotation depth, with Hutch and Chavez as the 6th and 7th starters in case of any injuries or slumps among the starters. 

Happy birthday to Roberto Osuna, who turns 21 today.

My two cents on his future:  you don't take a successful 21-year-old pitcher, who has already had tremendous major-league experience at a very young age, and relegate him to the bullpen for the rest of his career.  You keep open the possibility that he could transition to the rotation at some point.  Whether you try the experiment in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 is an open question, but you don't slam the door on future possibilities for a very good pitcher at the very young age of 21.

I was writing a little too fast in that last post, and obviously didn't mean to say that Osuna had tremendous major-league "experience" -- meant to say "success" rather than experience.

But in case anyone challenges the conclusions that can be drawn from one season, look again at his 2015 numbers.  For a 20-year-old rookie to throw 70 innings in the majors with a WHIP of 0.919 and a 1.3 fWAR (along with a K/9 of 9.69 and a BB/9 of 2.07) is an excellent performance, and I think it should encourage us to see his long-term potential as more than just a reliever.  He has to be given a rotation shot at some point, although it might not necessarily happen this year.

Whether you try the experiment in 2016 or 2017 or 2018 is an open question, but you don't slam the door on future possibilities for a very good pitcher at the very young age of 21.
an excellent performance, and I think it should encourage us to see his long-term potential as more than just a reliever.  He has to be given a rotation shot at some point, although it might not necessarily happen this year.
----
Would these reasoning works for other young pitchers as well ? Sanchez also performs with excellence. So if both Osuna and Sanchez are given rotation shot, which team will they perform for ?

Pure probabilities of starting pitching, Sanchez is ahead of Osuna in development so Sanchez shall be on the same level or ahead of Osuna:
Sanchez in Toronto, Osuna in Toronto
Sanchez in Toronto, Osuna in Buffalo
Sanchez in Toronto, Osuna in New Hamsphire
Sanchez in Toronto, Osuna in Dunedin
Sanchez in Buffalo, Osuna in Buffalo
Sanchez in Buffalo, Osuns in New Hampshire
Sanchez in Buffalo, Osuna in Dunedin

Osuna was elevated from Dunedin; would he be given starting chances at the start of 2016 season in Dunedin and promoted to New Hamsphire later on ? Anyway, Sanchez, Chavez and Hutchison competing for the 5th and 6th starter spots is interesting.

IMHO, in Buffalo, Copeland, Diamond, Penny, Hernandez  can start. Could LeBlanc and Floyd both spend time in bullpen and starting ?

Do not worry about bullpen vacancy left by Osuna's assignment to the minors, it can be easily filled.
-----
Another question, besides preparing for unexpected and help to Toronto, will the signed veterans to minor league contracts help prospect development in any way, especially in New Hamsphire and Buffalo ?

Tammy Rainey at Blue Jays plus has a good article breaking down how the Jays could afford BOTH Jose and EE if they wanted to.  I'm still a huge fan of retaining one of the two, the fan in me wants Jose, the closet GM thinks EE won't have a lot of suitors looking for a thirty-something DH only and will be more affordable than some think.

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/blue-jays-jose-bautista-edwin-encarnacion-signing/

She estimates:  "a contract for Encarnacion could look like $15m for each of 2017-2019 with a fourth year option at $15m and a $5m buyout. That’s $50m in guaranteed money. For Bautista, whom I assume is going to want five guaranteed years and over $100m, I’ll propose a similar structure: 20-22-25-25-20 for a total of $112m. Give him an $18m option with a $3m buyout on the sixth year if you like."

I don't see both making sense for us, but either of those scenarios on there own seem workable to me. Thoughts?

The Chris Davis contract will guide both Edwin and Jose. Jose is very, very much better, so I think at least four years at $110.0 - $125.0 Million. Edwin is a much, much better player so at least five years at $ 110.0 - $125.0 Million. I would be shocked if they took less.

Incidentally, unless something falls in their lap, I don't expect anything more than a depth signing or two to occur. Of course, it only takes another GM to get desparate to turn up the stove.

The Jays have an exceptional Offense that would still win most games if only half of them are hitting. The Jays have a superb Defense, far superior than anything they have had in years. These guys could fall asleep and still do a good job defensively.

The Bullpen without Sanchez is very good and almost unbeatable if he's there. So how good does this Rotation need to be?

There are not many Starters in the A.L. that are better than Stroman has been shown to be. R.A. Dickey will be continually effective. Heyman said he's found his pitch from 2012. If so, he could have his best year in 2016. Marco Estrada figured out how to pitch here. He's now pitching all year long for the best team he's ever pitched for. I have no idea of how good he'll be. J. A. Happ always pitched fairly well here; having some really good games. If his changes in Pittsburgh are applicable here - wow! It's just possible concern over who's the 5th Starter is overblown.

All things being equal, I expect the Blue Jays to run away with the A.L. East.

"I'd certainly be asking about "the spending spike" from 'Big Spender jerjapan'. BSj, no doubt has laid out for a seasons' pair this offseason and I'm curious where they are. Obviously Big Spender isn't the sort who complains because others aren't spending money on a team he invests nothing more than complaining on the internet."

I always get a good chuckle from CBDC's holier-than-thou, abusive attitude; he must be the most popular guy in Del Boca Vista. This is my 5th season with season tickets in 524, and I picked up another pair this winter in 115. Does that qualify me to criticize Rogers ownership for holding payroll steady despite soaring attendance, viewership, and revenue numbers, and promises that if we came the team would spend more? Ownership has a monster roster on their hands with 2 of the best hitters in baseball slated to leave after this year, and they've done a very mediocre effort at capitalizing on this opportunity. This window, with the Yankees laying low and waiting for the Sabathia/Teixeira/Beltran/ARod contracts to expire, is now 2016 or bust, and it's a shame ownership isn't willing to augment the roster just a bit more to go for it one more time.

Judging by some comments Wilner and Griffin have been dropping lately, I get the impression that Jose Bautista is as good as gone. He wants to get a sense of his true value on the open market instead of sacrificing earning potential for security again, and if he has a season anywhere close to 2015 he's going to get paid too much for the Jays to stomach, especially if they are retaining Encarnacion as a long-term DH. Tulowitzki, Martin, Donaldson, Estrada, and Happ alone are going to cost approximately 83m in 2017; add in EE and you're looking at 100m before paying anyone in arbitration, and with a bullpen that sees Cecil & Storen depart as FAs. I hope the Jays play well enough that they are forced to keep Bautista & Encarnacion all year to compete, but I'm skeptical that even if they do go deep again that the resources will be there to bring the gang back.

RHP R.A. Dickey ($12.0), C Josh Thole ($.800), RHP Jessy Chavez ($4.0), LHP Brett Cecil ($3.8),RHP Drew Storen ($8.375), RF Jose Bautista ($14.0), LF Michael Saunders ($2.9), 1B/DH Justin Smoak ($3.9), 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion ($10.0) and INF Darwin Barney ($1.05) are Free Agents after 2016 freeing up about $60.825 Million.

Raises to LHP J.A. Happ ($3.0). RHP Marco Estrada ($3.0) and C Russell Martin ($5.0) account for $11.0 Million of that money, while Arb raises account for another $10.0 - 12.0 Million.

There are nine holes to fill with what is left. So how do the Jays still resign RHP Drew Storen ($9.0), LHP Brett Cecil ($6.0), RF Jose Bautista ($25.0) and 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion ($23.0)?

I think that a lot depends on how Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford do this year. If they both take steps forward, the Jays would be looking at an outfield of Pompey, Alford, and Pillar for 2017 or 2018, and would not want to lock down both of Bautista and Encarnacion.

As a fan, I want to see the Jays keep them both, especially Bautista. If I attempt to be more rational, I don't see a good choice: either the Jays have to pay heavily for Jose's declining years, or they have to watch him hit home runs and flip bats for some other team. (Probably the Boston Red Sox, grumble complain.)

Yeah, I see it the way Dave sees it as well. Either the Jays overpay for Bautista's twilight, or they lose him without having an in-house replacement (unless Alford really takes off) and possibly see him go to a division rival. Both scenarios have downside. The upside to re-signing him, aside from the obvious PR benefit, is if you believe he will age better than most players age in their late-30's. His plate discipline, lack of K's, home run power, and ability to stay in great shape certainly point to someone who could age well, but 36-39 (the ages he will be during a four year deal after 2016) is still a logical time to see decline both in performance and health. With his defensive ability already in question, his value during his next deal will come entirely with the bat. The same applies for Encarnacion, obviously.

Logically, I think you let both go, or at most re-sign Bautista and move him to 1B or DH. Signing both of them is unrealistic for payroll reasons and too big of an investment for two players with little to no defensive value.

To be fair, there isn't one prominent FA contract in baseball that you think would be logical for the jays to have signed.

"To be fair, there isn't one prominent FA contract in baseball that you think would be logical for the jays to have signed."


Absolutely. When I praised AA for signing Russell Martin last year, it was just a mirage.

Either the Jays overpay for Bautista's twilight, or they lose him without having an in-house replacement (unless Alford really takes off) and possibly see him go to a division rival.

The worst-case scenario (this is a Monday, so I tend to be more worst-case): the Red Sox will need a DH after this season, and will likely need a 1B unless the Hanley Ramirez experiment works out. They could offer contracts to both Jose and Edwin as a package deal.

"The worst-case scenario (this is a Monday, so I tend to be more worst-case): the Red Sox will need a DH after this season, and will likely need a 1B unless the Hanley Ramirez experiment works out. They could offer contracts to both Jose and Edwin as a package deal."

Shudder. That is a worst case scenario indeed ...

But I still remain optimistic that we get one of the two - I don't see a role for both given the defensive decline both are facing. People keep expressing concerns around Bautista's 'decline years' but of course, his age will be factored into any contract that he signs - nobody is going to sign him without factoring said decline into the contract.

A recent Fangraphs article on elite FAs points out that these players often generate significantly MORE value than their contract pays for in the first year or two of a new deal. If we resigned Bautista for 5 years $100 million or so, as Tammy Rainey speculated we could, we could fairly expect more than $20 million of value for the first year or two - the decline years of the contract simply pay the player for the overperformance at the front end.

We can afford at least one of these guys. We need at least one of these guys. This year will determine the course we go - maintaining the course as a contender or a year or two of retooling. What I don't want to see is the org playing cheap and passing it off as prudent.

I'd hoped for Clippard earlier in this thread. It looks like he agreed to terms with Arizona today: $4.1M in 2016, $4.15M in 2017 and a $4M signing bonus.

When the Gallardo speculation swirled a few weeks ago and Atkins confirmed interest, I thought there might be more room in the budget than originally reported, but it looks like Floyd might be the last significant piece.

Maybe they're reserving some space for a re-worked, long term Donaldson contract.

a reliever like clippard on that kind of deal would have been my nightmare scenario. glad that's not us.

as for Bautista/EE, I agree with jer that signing one of them makes sense. We won't be able to replace the bat we lose but we can likely make up much of that WAR with a likely big defensive upgrade in the OF.

a reliever like clippard on that kind of deal would have been my nightmare scenario. glad that's not us.

It's a 2 year term and he's basically getting Justin Smoak money in year 2 when the team is due for a makeover. The risk is minimal, particularly given his track record.

Whatever we think of guys like Lowe, Bastardo, Motte, Kelley, et. all, they've all landed deals with annual $ of 5M-6M. Maybe that's a "nightmare", but it's also market value.

"re-sign Bautista and move him to 1B or DH"

Bautista has too much pride to take what he will see as a position demotion, IMO. If we can only "afford" one (likely) and want a DH/1B it better be EE. One George Bell moment in a lifetime is enough.

2yr deal for Donaldson. $14.5m AAV.

yeah Vulg i didn't want to pay any of those names that, either. smoak included.

Getting Josh Donaldson for 14.5 million a year is great value in today's market, and will be one less thing to worry about for 2017 as management sorts out what to do about Bautista and Encarnacion. Rereading my comment, I guess my username should be Captain Obvious.

if donaldson continues to be a modern day schmidt...he'll still be able to reach free agency on schedule.
good news for fans of teams that pay for elite players, and for the man himself.

Donaldson is still with the team in 2018. I think they will try to extend him for at least another year but I wouldn't be surprised if they trade him after 2017 for a load of prospects.

For now, it's a huge non-deal. Just protecting a guy from getting his ego bruised in arbitration hearings.

"A recent Fangraphs article on elite FAs points out that these players often generate significantly MORE value than their contract pays for in the first year or two of a new deal. If we resigned Bautista for 5 years $100 million or so, as Tammy Rainey speculated we could, we could fairly expect more than $20 million of value for the first year or two - the decline years of the contract simply pay the player for the overperformance at the front end."


One of the reasons I liked the Martin signing was because of that reasoning. Martin saves runs with pitch framing, but even without factoring that in, he is a good bet to meet the value of his deal by year 4-ish, and probably exceed it by the time the deal is done even with the inevitable decline towards the back-end. He had a $/WAR of $27.7 last season and is projected to be around that mark again in 2016.

The difference between him and Bautista/EE is that we are dealing with players with little to no defensive value. So if they are still elite hitters, then great. They'll be surplus value for the first part of their deals. However, any dip in offensive production, which is a reasonable concern in a player's mid-to-late 30's, and suddenly it's not a sure thing anymore. Martin has elite defense and framing, so even if he didn't hit as well as he did, he would have provided value in other ways. With Bautista/EE, you don't get that. Their value is tied entirely to their offense, which is fine when they hit, but how long can they remain this good?

Like I said, if you have to bring one back, then take your best guess on who you think will age the best, and bring him back. My guess is Bautista, but he'll probably require the bigger financial commitment.

That deal seems team friendly for Donaldson to sign. B-R estimated $12 mil for 2016 and given his MVP performance and likely top 10 this year if healthy I'd expect it to climb to around $20+ mil in 2017. So a $29 mil 2 year deal is a bargain although not a crazy one. It seems the Jays are well positioned with Donaldson to do a longer term extension if he wants it as he doesn't seem unreasonable given this deal. I'd probably do some light testing of the water with a statement to his agent about how 5/$100 would be reasonable (covering age 32-36) and if they start talking go to $120 over 5 with an option year or two. I'd hesitate to go any further than that but open softly and casually to see where they are.

I think what this Donaldson deal does is give both sides a chance to discuss a longer term deal next winter without having to worry about arbitration. The Jays still have him under control for 2018 regardless, so at the very least they avoid the arbitration headache next winter.

I don't think this means anything beyond that (as it relates to Bautista and Encarnacion extensions), but cost certainty for 2017 is certainly a positive.

Latest has it as a two year deal worth $28.65.
Million. So it appears the Jays got the $11.35 for this year and a bargain $17.3 Million next year. If Donaldson got his $11.8, then the Jays got an even better bargain next year.

Does anyone think Brett Cecil takes anything less than $28.0 Million over 4 years? I don't because I think Drew Storen will get at least $45.0 Million over 5 years.

I don't view a contract that equals Donaldson winning arbitration and being guaranteed 17.2m in 2017 as "team-friendly". That's a lot of risk for the Jays to assume with very little benefit. He'd have to have won his arbitration case (and it was unclear he deserved a bigger pay jump than Chris Davis received) AND put up another MVP-calibre season for the team to be saving approximately 3m here.

It's a big meh to me. We didn't save much money by going 2yrs, he didn't gain much security from it either.

The good about this deal is that we're not fighting with our mvp in arbitration.

but it's hardly encouraging when thinking about the longterm vision here.

The Jays had no urgency to go for a long term deal right now because they have him for 3 years regardless (age 30-32) and don't know what their payroll situation/direction will look like a year from now with so many FA's (two of whom they are trying to extend), while Donaldson had no incentive to forgo any free agent years unless he got market value for 2019-beyond (which would be somewhere between $25-30M AAV...or possibly more if the market gets crazier). This deal essentially eliminates an arb hearing this year and next year, and maybe gives both sides the ability to talk extension next winter without having a hearing looming in the background. It wasn't supposed to be some sort of long-term direction building signing.

They won't go to arbitration for two years with their star. That's the gist of what this signing means. They may have to go in 2018, or maybe they extend him before that, or maybe they trade him. It's too early to know.

Anything under $20 mil for next year is friendly IMO. This is the guy who won MVP last year and was top 10 the 2 years before that. Odds are he'll have another top 10 this year thus guaranteeing a $20+ mil payday in arbitration unless he gets hurt.

While I wish the Donaldson deal was longer, I can see why 2 years might be all you would want to do if you are Atkins. Anything longer and you risk setting a troubling precedent when it comes time to re-sign Jose next year.

Dave Cameron is suggesting a three year extension (2017-19) for Bautista at $75 million. He's also predicting 7.5 WAR for those years, so that's a pricey dollars / WAR number, but I think this offseason was nearing 8million/ 1 WAR - by 2019 1 WAR could be worth 10 million. And it's no guarantee that Bautista declines as precipitously as Cameron's model suggests.

I would definitely do that deal - would you guys?

I'd think about it and then probably do it.

I wouldn't be spending $25 million a year for a first baseman who I thought would generate 2.5 WAR/year. And certainly not so on a budget of $140-$150 million. 

Now whether Bautista can be expected to generate only 2.5 WAR/season in his age 36-38 years is another question. I ran a Play Index of players who between the ages of 29-34 (Bautista's peak) had an OPS+ between 150 and 160 (Jose had 156) and between 3000 and 4000 PAs (Jose is comfortably in the middle).  Throwing out Joe Morgan and deadballers, you end up with names like Jimmie Foxx, Mel Ott, Dolph Camilli, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Jackson, Gary Sheffield, Harmon Killebrew, Alex Rodriguez and Jim Thome.  You can look them up but they all were a shadow of their former selves between 36 and 38.  2.5 WAR per year is, if anything a tad optimistic.  Edmonds' career is (alas) fairly typical.  Thome is often cited as a player who held his own to age 40, but he only generated 7 WAR during the age 36-38 period. 

Good point Mike. B-R most similar isn't perfect but gives an idea of somewhat similar batters.

3 of his through age 34 did not play after age 34 - Dean Palmer, Danny Tartabull, Jason Bay. 3 more had less than 1 WAR left in them - Bob Allenson, Jeromy Burnitz, JD Drew. The remaining 4 totaled 9.7 WAR over the rest of their careers, best being a 3.8 from Ron Gant. The others were Jay Buhner, Darryl Strawberry, and David Justice (1.8 to 2.1). Of note is that none of them had a career anything like Bautista (late bloomer vs mostly guys who peaked young). Still a pretty big warning there.

Encarnacion is younger. His comps all played after age 32. The 10 totaled 31 WAR from age 33 on. If you go from 34 on (thus when EE's contract is up) you get one retired (Roger Maris), two negative WARs (Tartabull & Joe Carter), and 7 guys betwen 1.0 and 3.0 WAR total (Jermaine Dye, Pat Burrell, Tim Salmon, Eric Chavez, Frank Howard, Ryan Klesko, Darryl Strawberry). Like Bautista not impressive.

Right now I'd say the smartest move is for the Jays to wait until 2016 is over and see how these two do. If either would take a 3 year extension at under $20 per it would be tempting but I'd be nervous as both have a list of 10 comparable players that don't show a single 'lets hope' case. Like I said these aren't perfect but sure do not say anything good. Even one case of 10+ WAR would help but outside of Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor (last two are mandatory Jay content) there aren't many hitters who did well in their late 30's.

If the Jays get Donaldson at $11.35 or less for this year, it's a bargain. If the increase for next isn't a record, it's a bargain. The Jays aren't going to save a lot, but a whole lot of tiny sums saved can be significant.

I'm positive that unless Rogers initiates their signings (make the call to sign them), only one of Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion resign will the team. I wouldn't try to sign both because starting in 2017, the cheap young Pitchers stop being cheap, player by player. Osuna could be a Super Two, Stroman might be as well. Signing both makes it extremely difficult in 2018 to stay under the Luxury Tax level.

If either would take a 3 year extension at under $20 per it would be tempting

John, Tammy Rainey's article was pretty detailed, looking at comparable players / contracts, and she suggested 3 years, 45 million guaranteed for Edwin with a fourth option year at $15 million, with a $5 million buyout. 

Given Mike Green's frightening comps for Bautista (that was an eye opening list, and some precipitous drop-offs) perhaps the younger, cheaper EE is the way to go?

I don't know if Bautista has the ego to make more money yet play a smaller role.
Does he still want to play RF? Does he still want to hit in the top 4?

With EE, you only have to worry about the performance and he's younger.

Steamer forecasts fWAR for Bautista of +3.7, 3.2, 2.5, 1.8, 1.0 from 2016-2020. Since the Jays have already paid for 2016, I don't really see how it makes sense for the Jays to pay 4/80-100m for a total of 7.5 WAR or so.

Subjectively, I could see both Bautista and EE having some non-trivial injury issues beyond 2016. Both have quite violent swings; both have dealt with relatively minor injuries in recent years that could become more troublesome as they get older.

It's not an easy situation for the front office. I imagine they'll try to work out a two- or three-year extension for one or both players at a price that fits into their overall budget. But I think that price will likely be too low for Bautista, and maybe both players, to accept.

Depressing it is. I'm changing my mind.... bye bye to both.
If we are out of it at the deadline I'm looking to make some trades as well.

FG's projection of Bautista from ages 36-39 is fair. There's a chance he could beat it, but even elite players decline with age and are more likely to get banged up as they hit their late-30's.

If we all looked at this situation realistically rather than with our hearts, I think it would be easier to realize that letting both go is probably the best value move. You won't replace their offense, but a sabermetric front office like Shapiro/Atkins should be able to evaluate value beyond offense. The team is already paying $20M a season for the inevitable declines of Tulo and Martin, although both should be able to maintain some value on defense, specifically Martin. Adding two more $20M AAV players to that list, both in their mid to late 30's and with little to no defensive value, is pushing it.

This is a tough situation for Shapiro. He would gain some major PR points for signing Bautista at least, but even then, who is going to remember that PR boost in 2019 if Bautista is making $23M a year with a 1.5 WAR by then? Obviously if he lets both of them go, we'll see the mother of all fan base tirades, even if it makes sense long-term.

There doesn't appear to be a right answer to this. Waiting and seeing what happens in 2016 is probably the best way to go.

For something different, Blue Jay Prospect acquisitions?

03 February 2016: sign RHP Meliton Reyes, 6'2"180, 07/31/97, (18), Panama, to a Minor League contract.
27 January 2016: sign RHP Oscar Brito, 6'5"195, 12/25/95, (20), Dominican Republic, to a Minor League contract.
14 January 2016: sign LHP Randy Pondler, 6"2"160, 11/08/96, (19), Nicaragua, to a Minor League contract.
21 December 2015: sign LHP Brandon Bixler, 5'11"180, 12/31/91, (23) to a Minor League contract.
17 December 2015: sign RHP Gabe Noyalis, 6'3"220, 11/17/92, (23) to a Minor League contract.

Considering how many Pitchers were trade away since the end of the 2014 season, these guys might not seem like much, but it's a start.

The not-quite/not really quasi-prospects on just Minor League contracts are:

LHP John Anderson, 6'2"200, 11/09/88, (27).
LHP Daniel Schlereth, 6'0"210, 05/09/86, (29).
RHP Bobby Doran, 6'6"235, 03/21/89, (26).

These aren't much either as all of the above do not have MLB Spring Training invites, just invites to the Minor League site. Shapiro and Team have done a good job filling the holes. If just one of these turn out an asset, this offseason becomes a bigger success.

Richard S. S. holds two lists of recently acquired pitchers
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318377
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318511

Complementary to them, few more pitchers:
RHP Murphy Smith, 6'3"210, 08/25/87, (28)
RHP Chris Smith, 6'3"180, 08/18/88, (27)

The Baseball America's minor league free agents 2015 of Toronto Blue Jays show a list; after removing signed players:
RHP: Dustin Antolin (AA), Austin Bibens-Dirkx (AA), Derek Blacksher (Hi A), Cory Burns (AA), Mike Lee (AA)
LHP: Andrew Albers (AAA), Colt Hynes (AAA), Luis Perez (AA)

Lee, Bibens-Dirkx, Blacksher, Burns, Albers, Hynes, Perez are around the age of 27-30; they were 2015 season's group of "Anderson, Schlereth and Doran".  Expecting no much help from the 2016 group is more prudent.

How about a list of batters with similar contents? Maybe the fact that pitchers report to camp earlier demands less attention to batters than pitchers.

Huge meh on AArdsma. He's been thoroughly awful for a few years now, ever since he lost his velo.

He's the all-time #1 MLB player. In alphabetical order.

There doesn't appear to be a right answer to this. Waiting and seeing what happens in 2016 is probably the best way to go.

Once the season starts, there's no reason for these players not to declare free-agency.
That doesn't mean they can't be resigned, but they Jays would have to match other offers.

Agreed Scott, if we don't get a deal done by April, it's see how the season goes and FA for both guys, but EE won't be getting $20 million per, and I'd love to get him an extension signed before spring.

On a more positive note, the BP top 10 prospect review is up and has some great detail on our guys - they love Alford and see him as a first division CF.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28401

they see Greene and Harris as mid rotation starters, Reid Foley as a 4th, and Tellez, Guerrero, Urena and Pentacost as average regulars.

Ezra Wise sees plenty of 'under 25' talent in the org, seems quite high on Sanchez's potential as a starter, and he adds this nugget on our scouting:

"They have one of the largest - if not the largest - scouting staffs in baseball. more than twice the size of some of the smaller departments out there. And that breadth of coverage has really paid dividends, as home-grown talents Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, Dalton Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, Drew Hutchison, and Roberto Osuna have developed into key contributors on the current roster, while a number the non-homegrown players on the roster were acquired for quality prospect currency.

The Blue Jays are known as a “Scouting Organization,” and if nothing else that’ll be Alex Anthopoulos’ lasting legacy after he built the department into one of the best in the game."

I hadn't realized we had that many scouts!

The Blue Jays are known as a “Scouting Organization,” and if nothing else that’ll be Alex Anthopoulos’ lasting legacy after he built the department into one of the best in the game." I hadn't realized we had that many scouts!

I can't recall exactly when, but AA did announce publicly at some point that he was going to try to gain a competitive advantage by investing heavily in scouting personnel rather than using extra monies on the FA market or the MLB roster.

I recall him saying they were going to try to employ the largest scouting staff in the majors to get more bang for their buck internally, and were going to try to poach and retain top talent by paying scouts better than the average wage and giving them smaller, defined territories so they wouldn't have to travel as much.

I do recall however as well that a year or two ago after one of the Jays very disappointing seasons, quite a few relatively high-profile scouts were either let go or left the organization at the end of the year with no mention of any replacements. So I'm not sure if the Jays still have the beefed up staff that AA initially envisioned.

MLBTR has a new article up, summarizing a Shapiro interview with Jim Bowden. Basically, he said this about Price: I don't know why it's unpopular to be honest - if we had resigned Price, that would have been almost all of our off-season budget, and we still had other holes to fill.... "Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy too".

Also, other stuff about JD, JB and EE. As well as a bit about Gavin Floyd.

Article also has a link to the audio of the interview.

I can't recall exactly when, but AA did announce publicly at some point that he was going to try to gain a competitive advantage by investing heavily in scouting personnel rather than using extra monies on the FA market or the MLB roster.

I remember this, mostly because I recall my skepticism of AA and was looking for signs of competence from this new kid. This was perhaps the first sign of optimism for me at the time:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-shake-up-scouting-department/article4288451/

I remember this, mostly because I recall my skepticism of AA and was looking for signs of competence from this new kid. This was perhaps the first sign of optimism for me at the time

Good find Vulg. I wanted to guess that this philosophy came about when AA lost his ability to milk compensation draft picks with the CBA changes, but it seems it was right from the outset

AA also said that he wanted an All Star at every position. That is probably unrealistic.

He preferred drafting hard throwing HS pitchers. We all know this. 6 drafts later this strategy will benefit the big club.

"MLBTR has a new article up, summarizing a Shapiro interview with Jim Bowden. Basically, he said this about Price: I don't know why it's unpopular to be honest - if we had resigned Price, that would have been almost all of our off-season budget, and we still had other holes to fill...."


Well, he's right. It only made sense to sign Price if the payroll was large enough to add other pieces as well. Clearly, that was not the case. That's not even factoring the record AAV/contract it would have taken to get it done.

Shapiro is a sensible man IMO. I think he will do well.

I am looking forward to see how he works out.

Jose and EE will likely be very good hitters for a good number of years.

Would be a shame to see them doing it for another team.

"Well, he's right. It only made sense to sign Price if the payroll was large enough to add other pieces as well. Clearly, that was not the case. That's not even factoring the record AAV/contract it would have taken to get it done."

He spent $30m on three #4-6 type sp instead of a perennial Cy contender.

whether that makes sense is debatable, to say the least.

"Jose and EE will likely be very good hitters for a good number of years"

Both EE and Bautista are currently elite hitters, but isn't the issue whether their total value (including offense, defense and base running) from 2017-2020 will be worth the cost it will take to extend them? (2016 is already paid for.)

It's tough to justify paying 4/80 to 4/100 for a DH/1B type in his mid to late-30s (or, in Bautista's case, a below-average outfielder like Beltran in recent years). You would have to be pretty confident that the player would remain healthy and highly productive, notwithstanding all the historical examples of players who decline rapidly during that phase of their careers.

"He spent $30m on three #4-6 type sp instead of a perennial Cy contender"

Agreed that it's debatable whether Shapiro's approach was the right one, but it should be noted that Price was signed to a seven-year deal with a three-year opt-out, while Happ/Estrada/Chavez are signed to contracts that are 3/2/1 years in duration. The latter deals carry a lot less risk (albeit with a lot less upside). And, of course, Shapiro has to work within a budget that is more restrictive than Boston's.

Keith Law has ranked all the farm systems. The Jays are at number 25. I don't think that is a surprise after all of last seasons trades.

Keith ranked the jays' system 19th last offseason, so yeah, 25th this from him is no surprise.

"it should be noted that Price was signed to a seven-year deal with a three-year opt-out, while Happ/Estrada/Chavez are signed to contracts that are 3/2/1 years in duration."

true, we may have been in a worse position for a 2020 championship if we had signed Price.

"He spent $30m on three #4-6 type sp instead of a perennial Cy contender."


You don't know what it would have taken to sign Price. He signed for 7/217. The Jays would have had to top that, plus beaten whatever dollar amount Boston was willing to pay. It would have been absurd to get into that type of bidding war with the payroll the Jays have to work with.

As far as who the Jays ended up with, look at the free agent market. What were the alternatives? Happ had a higher WAR than Zimmermann, Leake, Samardzija, Gallardo, Kennedy, Iwakuma, Kazmir, etc, last season, yet signed for much less than all of them. Do I think he'll be better than all those guys in 2016 as well? No. Better than some of them? Possibly.

That's essentially how you build a pitching staff without a star. You build a rotation of quality depth so that it limits the amount of Todd Redmond and Scott Copeland starts on the big league team. The Jays have the luxury to potentially get away with that because they have so much surplus value on offense and defense that it puts less pressure on the rotation to add wins. They will need to change course in future years when two 4-5 WAR players are not locked up to bargain basement contracts anymore (JB/EE), but for now, that works. Plus it maintains flexibility for any number of direction changes next season and beyond.

What Shapiro said in that interview was spot on, and what he did as far as team direction was absolutely the right move. Could he have done better than Happ/Estrada/Chavez? It would have been nice if he did, but he didn't want to trade prospects or lose picks, and the free agent market hasn't exactly made his signings/trades look worse in hindsight. If anything, they've made them look better. If the alternative was losing a pick and giving Ian Kennedy 5/70, or Leake 5/80, etc, then I'll take Happ for 3/36 and keep the pick.

So the Jays farm system has fallen from 19th to 25th over the past year?  Gosh, such a steep price to pay for acquiring Tulo, Storen (via Revere), three rental pitchers, and making the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.

"The Jays would have had to top that"

doubt it.

jays were the elite contender who he was familiar with, sox were the last place team that he hae bad history with.

And depending on exactly when Law decided that the Jays system was ranked 19th, we should maybe add Donaldson to that list of acquisitions too.

I went looking for positive comps for Bautista, i.e. players of his general ability who hit well during the age 36-38 span. The most positive comps I could find were Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz.  They aren't exactly similar though.  Martinez  hit .338 from age 32 to 34 and so had a longer way to fall in the "old player skills department".  Ortiz might be the most hopeful comp.  He had been a .300 hitter several times between ages 27 and 31, but went through a mid-career eclipse at ages 32-34 before rebounding. 

Anyways, only Martinez delivered anything more than 3 WAR per year.  I guess there is also Andres Galarraga  who had the best offensive year of his career at age 37. 

To my mind, a good outcome for Bautista would be something like Norm Cash, age 36-38.  Cash put up an OPS+ of 136 during that period in 1444 PAs.  Cash delivered 7 WAR over that time.

"What Shapiro said in that interview was spot on, and what he did as far as team direction was absolutely the right move."

Shapiro chose to spend money in a way which likely reduces our chances to win now, in the hopes that having payroll flexibility in the future will be more important.

he may be right, but i doubt it.

personally, i'd be more than happy lacking payroll flexibility for a few years as a cost of winning a title or two.

Incidentally, the Steamer projections (for WAR) for Bautista probably oversell him because of the difficulty in ascertaining the nature of his current defensive abilities.  If you look at his 3 year defensive numbers, you might think that he is going to be a serviceable but below average defensive player in right-field at age 36-38.  We know that it is not right.  His defensive decline in 2014-15 due to arm problems is not going away.  The best case scenario is that he moves to first base now and might be pretty decent at it for a year or two. 

"perennial Cy contender"

In the past, he was. Verlander was a perennial Cy Young contender, too, until he wasn't. He was terrific until his age-31 season. The Tigers are now stuck paying him $28m per year through 2019. That would be a huge albatross for a $140m payroll team like Toronto.

Price would have made a lot more sense if the Jays were planning to have an annual payroll of $185m or more (like that of the Red Sox).

"Price would have made a lot more sense if the Jays were planning to have an annual payroll of $185m or more (like that of the Red Sox)."

Price cost the same as Happ/Estrada/Chavez. payroll has nothing to do with it.

"His defensive decline in 2014-15 due to arm problems is not going away."

wouldn't it being an injury-specific decline mean that it WOULD go away? or at least bounce back significantly?

for the record - drs didn't hate his defense nearly as much as uzr did last year, so there's some other question marks on that huge negative uzr gave him.

Payroll is definitely a big big reason Price is gone.

For example if the Jays had a payroll of 1 billion dollars, Price would be a Jay.

(The main point here is that if their payroll was larger they could more easily afford Price - I know a billion dollar payroll is unrealistic)

"Shapiro chose to spend money in a way which likely reduces our chances to win now, in the hopes that having payroll flexibility in the future will be more important."


Reducing the team's chances of winning now would imply that he took away from the team. He didn't. Price was a free agent. The Jays re-signing Estrada, signing Happ, trading for Chavez, etc, improved their chances of winning based on what they had internally before those moves. We seem to disagree on how likely a Price signing actually was. I don't think it was even a discussion, from Shapiro up to ownership. There was no chance the Jays were giving him a contract anywhere near what he got.

The Jays needed to change direction after 2015. They couldn't afford to keep doing what AA was doing. It was going to catch up to them eventually, if it hasn't already. There is a clear window of contention in 2016, and Shapiro has made sure to make incremental improvements for 2016 rather than subtracting from the team. He's kept all prospects, he's kept all picks, his two big trades should improve two vital areas of the team (the pen with Storen and the rotation with Chavez), and his biggest FA signing was a three year deal with no pick compensation attached. I don't see why that should be viewed as a negative off-season. The Jays still project to be a very good team, and should have flexibility to add salary mid-season (though I doubt they'll be trading any top prospects any time soon so don't expect a David Price equivalent).

You don't have to win the off-season to do good things in baseball. Thankfully the season is creeping up so we can see what the team actually can do soon enough.

Estrada was way better than Price in the playoffs last year.

Why pay $30 mil for a pitcher if you aren't confident in him in "do or die" games?

Nobody wanted to see Price start game 5 vs the Rangers.

DRS had Bautista as a 0 arm last year. UZR had him as a -2.5.  If one is attempting to decide how he is likely to be between age 36 and 38, betting on his arm to be even -5 seems to me to be optimistic. 

I like Bautista and would love to have him here for the remainder of his career- as a first baseman/DH.  This club is not like the Yankees who can afford to have players like Jeter and Bernie Williams playing positions that they can no longer handle in their late 30s and getting a lot of money for it. 

“Every team has a budget,” Shapiro began. “Every team has operating parameters. I don’t know why it’s not fashionable to just say the truth. David Price would’ve represented almost our entire offseason. It’s that simple, Jim. Almost no one would make that decision .... We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A. We had to take the money, which was ample, and figure out how to both solve the Major League rotation, which was two spots in the rotation, along with solving a depth challenge. … Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy, too.”

My problem with Shapiro's statement here is not that it's unfashionable to tell the truth - it's the statement that "almost no one would make that decision" to resign Price. The amount spent on the AAA rotation is largely irrelevant - we could have afforded Price in place of Happ, Chavez and Estrada. I'd personally rather have Price, Stroman, Dickey, Hutch and Sanchez with Herndandez / Penny / Floyd etc as depth than the rotation we have right now - but for sure the depth would be worrisome in this scenario.

"The Jays needed to change direction after 2015. They couldn't afford to keep doing what AA was doing."

It's hilarious that you think we have to change direction after making the playoffs for the FIRST TIME IN 25YRS.

The Jays have one of the best teams in baseball. No reason to change directions. You change directions when you are bad, not when you are awesome.

And if by "keep doing what AA was doing" you mean trading prospects, then signing Price would have made it even less necessary to do that. As of now, though, people are already talking about the potential need to make a deadline trade for an SP (though yes we know that shappy will never do that).

"We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A"

I mean seriously.

Triple A pitchers.

He actually said this.

A good secondary reason to extend Bautista is his work ethic and high baseball IQ, which would no doubt benefit the team in 2017 and beyond. But this shouldn't be the main reason for keeping him around.

No doubt Shapiro meant AAA players like Norris (or maybe Boyd), not scrubs like Copeland and Ortiz and Laffey.

Signing Price might have worked if we went to a 3 man rotation and had him be our Christy Mathewson.

I get a feeling some here would not be happy unless the Jays had a $250 mil payroll.

I can see the case for a 'stars and scrubs' which is what we'd have with Price. The contending window is short right now, 2016. Thus Price would've been a big luxury from 2017 to 2022 and probably not close to earning his contract in 2020 and beyond leading the Jays to hope he takes the opt-out after 2018 and many fans going nuts about it then.

Bautista & Encarnacion will get qualifying offers with at least one leaving while Shapiro I suspect hopes both leave or one takes the QO. Keeping both would be expensive in cash and years and odds are strong neither is a 3+ WAR player in 2017 and beyond (I'm speaking in total WAR from 2017 to end of career, not per year). I suspect any deal done for them will look like the last deal Joe Carter got here which I suspect everyone here knows was a disaster for the team and led to the Jays trading away a really good player for next to nothing (John Olerud). I don't want a repeat of that (overpaying a playoff star who is past his prime).

As much as I agree Bautista being here for the rest of his career sounds nice as a practical matter of winning ball games it wouldn't work well. If he takes the QO and sticks on a year to year basis then so be it that would work well.

It'll be interesting to see what changes next winter as the agreement between players and owners expires. From stuff like an international draft to increased ML minimum wage (I expect $1 mil) to expanded rosters (unlikely except as a concession for a harder cap/luxury tax). Will they change the QO rule or create a new rule that makes it so we get nada for Bautista and EE or more likely make it so the team getting them loses nothing (keep sandwich picks)?

Wasn't sure where to post anything like this but you all are a knowledgeable bunch (some of which attend many games) ...

I am going to my first ever Jays game and I'm looking for any insight as to what to expect, what to look for, what to do. Who knows when I'll get back again so I really would like to make the most of it.

I am going, with friends, to the home opener series.

Thanks.

Not picking up Dickey's option saves $12.0 Million. No Qualifying Offer for Estrada and not resigning saves $11.5 Million (of $26.0 Million). Do not sign Happ which saves $10.0 (of $36.0 Million). Now they have $33.5 million per year to offer Price. Whether or not Price actually signs here is not the object of this post.

Doing the above still let's the Jays make every other move they did. The Rotation will be Price, Stroman, Sanchez (because you must), Hutchison and one of Chavez or Floyd. The Bullpen will be Osuna, Cecil, Storen, the other one of Chavez and Floyd (not in the Rotation), Loup and two others. The Hitters will be who and what they are now (nothing needed here). And the Pitching will not be as deep.

Without Price, this team is much deeper. Only one of Sanchez, Hutchison, Chavez or Floyd makes the Rotation, not three of four; and two or three of the four make the Bullpen. It's not about winning the Offseason or appeasing the Fan Base, it's all about surviving the Season. I think Shapiro and Company did a good job. Is it good enough, I don't know? All I know is the Offseason isn't over yet.

It looks as if Gallardo may be going to the O's for about 3/40-45, which is pretty much what I predicted (I had mused about the possibility of the Jays' flying under the radar and signing him for 2/28, but guessed he would get three years in the end).

I don't mind the O's overpaying somewhat for Gallardo in an attempt to compete while some of their veterans like Wieters, Hardy, Jones, Davis, and Tillman are still around and in their prime, but Gallardo is unlikely to be a difference-maker for Baltimore, and losing the 14th overall pick next year will hurt them.

It's interesting that the O's may be interested in signing Fowler as well. With Fowler, they would have a better chance of at least being in the playoff conversation (albeit still as an underdog in the competitive AL East).

Saskatchewan,

Downtown TO is super fun.  Personally I would avoid the touristy places right by the Dome - Wayne Gretzky's, Baton Rouge, Cora's, etc - and walk the extra ten minutes to Queen street west - so many good unique bars and restaurants - you can get an amazing $15 cocktail or a $5 beer at a biker / rock n roll bar, depending on your preference.  Food ranging from Indian to Korean BBQ (an awesome experience) to vegetarian to fine dining.  And check out Chinatown for dim sum / after game food, and Kensington market for the most unique hood in the city.  All within walking distance from the dome. 

As for the game - the beer is pricey, but the vibe will be amazing everywhere for the home opener.  Lots of people like the standing room 'flight deck' but it will probably be madness that weekend.

Have fun! 

Also, make sure you arrive at Rogers Centre well in advance of the start time. They now have a security system that you have to pass through, and the lineups can get pretty long. It makes the experience more enjoyable when you're not stressing about making it to your seats before the first pitch. And you won't want to miss any of Stroman's performance, assuming he pitches during that series.

With Fowler, they would have a better chance of at least being in the playoff conversation (albeit still as an underdog in the competitive AL East).

They have so little depth I have to agree that they need Fowler - if  you've given up one pick for Gallardo, might as well give up two and nab him... he should be affordable with the QO attached.  No need to be Dave Stewart about this. 

I'm interested to see how Kim pans out for them - I still think Asian players, and Koreans in particular, are undervalued - I really wanted the Jays to be in on Jung Ho Kang who was one of the steals of last offseason.  Then again, I also wanted them to be in on Kyuji Fukikawa, he of the career 5.74 ERA. 

"It's hilarious that you think we have to change direction after making the playoffs for the FIRST TIME IN 25YRS. The Jays have one of the best teams in baseball. No reason to change directions. You change directions when you are bad, not when you are awesome."

Yes, because if they want to KEEP making the playoffs, they'll need to start developing their own talent. Not converting their best SP prospects into relievers, not trading their top prospects for rentals, not acquiring more $20M AAV players in their 30's, etc. They needed to change direction, and I'm not sure how that's even a discussion. They have a $140M payroll, are a year away from losing two of their best players, and have no one anywhere near ready to contribute in the farm system until 2017 at the earliest (and that's assuming guys like Alford, Greene, etc, don't suffer any setbacks).

It's remarkable to me that the teams that have the brightest present and futures are all teams that have done the exact opposite of AA's 2013-15 direction (Cardinals, Pirates, Mets, Cubs, Astros, etc), and yet we're discussing how many more 30+ year old's the team can give long-term contracts to while the existing roster has a year of contention left in it before it either evaporates or needs to be retooled (assuming JB/EE both leave). Hell, even the Yankees are hoarding prospects and not going nuts on the FA market.

There needs to be a balance between trying to win and keeping the farm system strong. AA sacrificed one for the other. That's not how you build a long-term winner.


"And if by "keep doing what AA was doing" you mean trading prospects, then signing Price would have made it even less necessary to do that. As of now, though, people are already talking about the potential need to make a deadline trade for an SP (though yes we know that shappy will never do that)."

I don't think they really need to make a huge splash at the deadline. Depending on what their needs are, there should be talent available that won't cost Alford/Greene/Pompey types. Jays fans tend to have this perception that since the last three notable trade deadlines in franchise history involved trading top prospects for rentals (Cone in '92, Henderson in '93, and Price in '15) that it needs to be done every year. It doesn't. Build a good team, and fill a hole at the deadline within a reasonable price.

As far as Price, again, it didn't make sense for a team with a $140M payroll. You keep saying that they could have just used the Estrada/Happ/Chavez money on Price, but who are the 3rd/4th/5th starters in that scenario? Who is in AAA that can provide above replacement level depth in case someone gets hurt? Again, that's assuming you can even afford to outbid the Red Sox for Price. It was never an option. I don't know why people cling to it. Even AA wasn't going to re-sign him if he was still here.

who are the 3rd/4th/5th starters in that scenario? Who is in AAA that can provide above replacement level depth in case someone gets hurt?

Dickey, Hutch, Sanchez, Hernandez, Floyd and Penny.

Latos just signed for 3 million.  Guys like that.

Why assume EE and Jose are both leaving?  $50 million over 3 years brings EE back.  That's not tons more than his current contract. 

BTW, Keith Law ranking our farm 25th is more evidence that he just doesn't like the Jays approach, not that we are actually 25th. 

This roster - with or without Price - will contend this year, and can continue to do so for the forseeable future. 

BP's Ezra Wise:  "On the heels of a 93-69 season that included an American League East title and a trip to the ALCS, the Blue Jays are again poised to make a run at the playoffs. The original Top 10 prospect ranking may not inspire long-term dreamers, but with the 25-and-under talent, another crop of valuable players in the 26-30 range (Brett Cecil, Josh Donaldson, Kevin Pillar, etc.), and some sparkling veterans (Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion) the overall roster has the look of a club that should contend for the foreseeable future.

"Dickey, Hutch, Sanchez, Hernandez, Floyd and Penny."


Dickey/Chavez/Estrada/Happ make a combined $37.5M in 2016. Price alone costs $31M on Boston's contract, and possibly more than that if the Jays had to do a bidding war. If the Jays wanted to re-sign Price and save some bullets for a mid-season trade, then chances are they couldn't afford to bring Dickey back. Or they had to non-tender someone like Revere to make up a bit of the difference, in which case there's no Storen in the pen. In any event, whichever way you want to manipulate the data, they would have had to sacrifice depth in order to front load the talent in the rotation by bringing Price back.

Now, obviously some like the stars and scrubs philosophy, and that's fine. Just tell me how many successful teams incorporate that. The Royals? Nope. Mets? Nope. Cardinals? Pirates? Cubs? Nope, nope, and nope. The Dodgers? Nope, they have unlimited money and still have 10+ SP options in case of injury. Hell, they just let Greinke go and signed inferior talent to replace him (Kazmir and Maeda). The Yankees have also been very conservative in direction the past few years, starting with letting Cano go and replacing him with Stephen Drew. The list goes on and on.

The Jays entering the season with Price, Stroman, and a bunch of question marks was simply not going to be a smart move. When Shapiro says no other team would have done it in the same situation, I think he's right. You also have to remember that if the Jays had $30-32M tied up to Price in 2017, then that's $87-89M for four players (Donaldson/Price/Tulo/Martin), while having to replace/re-sign Bautista, Edwin, Cecil, etc.

All of this talk about fitting Price in and Rogers approving the biggest FA contract for a pitcher in MLB history (at the time) is just pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking.

I get a feeling some here would not be happy unless the Jays had a $250 mil payroll.

I can see the case for a 'stars and scrubs' which is what we'd have with Price. The contending window is short right now, 2016. Thus Price would've been a big luxury from 2017 to 2022 and probably not close to earning his contract in 2020 and beyond leading the Jays to hope he takes the opt-out after 2018 and many fans going nuts about it then.

Perhaps? Personally, I'd have been quite happy with $160M, which would have afforded enough room for a SP in the Zimmerman - Kazmir range. I don't care that Price specifically wasn't signed; I understand opportunity cost. I'm pretty sure nobody here expects them to spend as much as the Yanks or Dodgers or, as somebody joked (I hope), a billion dollars.

I agree with your second paragraph. The contending 'window' is particularly strong for 2016 and I recognize that signing such a pitcher to maximize our chances now probably precludes signing both EE and Jose in 2017+, but feel the tradeoff would have been worth it.

Speaking of 2017, did anybody notice how Donaldson's contract splits out? $11M then up to $17M. There's definitely going to be a squeeze the following summer assuming the budget remains fixed.

2017 assuming we keep Martin, Tulo,Donaldson, plus Estrada and JJHapp that totals $84
Add EE for $16 MM
Joey Bats on a 4/77 $18 increasing each year by $1 MM than $20 and $20 MM
The team totals $118 MM. The only free agents to abe retained would be Cecil and Storenwho will lead your bull-pen at $16 MM for each year. Now you are at $134 MM.
10 players at Pre-arb for an $5 MM bringing the team to a total of 138.1 for 17 players. Now there are 5p pyayers at Pre-arb

All of this talk about fitting Price in and Rogers approving the biggest FA contract for a pitcher in MLB history (at the time) is just pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking.

Maybe.  I just don't like the assertion that it is the only choice, rather than the conservative choice.  I have a feeling AA would have a least tried to resign Price with some creative contract, but who knows - that's just a guess, though he did have a track record of doing the unconventional.  Of course, doing the unconventional can be a competitive advantage - just because a bunch of teams are eschewing the stars and scrubs approach doesn't mean their isn't a permutation of that approach that works.  Nobody else was stockpiling type B FAs to get comp picks, or punting draft picks in the back half of the top ten to go over slot with high ceiling talent either. 

I did have my numbers wrong about the 1st year of Happ and Estrada's contracts, but nontender Smoak and we are almost at Price's value.  in 2017, Happ and Estrada are at 27.5 million - almost at Price's total.  And we absolutely have no way to know if Price was after the biggest total dollar value he could go or if he would have signed with the Jays for the same - or even less - than the Sox.  He loved it here. 

Moot point now, but it was a conservative choice for an organization that used to take the unconventional approach more than most.  Only time will tell, and frankly, I think both approaches have their merits. 

AA was against incentives, player options, and deals exceeding five years (due to Beeston influence). There was no way he would have re-signed Price, who signed for seven years with a player opt-out at the highest AAV ever for a pitcher at the time. As far as Price loving it in Toronto, maybe he did. That doesn't really prove he would have taken a discount to stay. Even Bautista and Edwin probably won't take discounts to stay, and they've both been in Toronto for much longer. There are very few Halladay types who value comfort over money. Price, given what he signed for, doesn't appear to be that type.

I think the Jays needed the risk averse approach this season, both for the short-term and long-term benefit of the organization. Sure, Shapiro is not going to pull off any Donaldson trades in all likelyhood, but he won't do any 2013 type trades (Marlins/Mets) either. Right now the Jays need to try to win in 2016 but at the same time keep an eye on the future and rebuild the farm system. The goal for any organization is to be able to do both (win and build a strong farm). The Jays are not there yet.

"As much as I agree Bautista being here for the rest of his career sounds nice as a practical matter of winning ball games it wouldn't work well."


Agreed. Not only are teams valuing age as Dave Cameron's article suggested, but the value of defense/WAR has increased around the league as well (see Heyward's contract). When you're dealing with two players whose value hinges on offense, then it's only natural to expect that value to diminish (possibly significantly) as the player gets into his mid-to-late 30's. When you start paying for past performance rather than projected performance, it will eventually come back to bite you.

In a way the Jays will benefit from Shapiro being in charge because he's already a villain, so him being the target of fan rage next winter will be nothing new. Beeston and AA may have been more sentimental in their decision making.

Thanks guys for the insights. Sounds like some great options jerjapan. I was thinking about the flight deck but I figured it would be a madhouse. I think we are staying within walking distance so we're planning to get there as early as possible. Gotta soak it all in.

"AA was against incentives, player options, and deals exceeding five years (due to Beeston influence)"

This isn't proof that AA wouldn't have changed though ... but I will say the rejection of these somewhat arbitrary rules has been one of the most welcome changes the new FO has implemented.

"It's remarkable to me that the teams that have the brightest present and futures are all teams that have done the exact opposite of AA's 2013-15 direction "

We're one of the teams with the brighest present and futures.

And signing a 30yr old Price would have made both even brighter.

"As far as Price, again, it didn't make sense for a team with a $140M payroll. You keep saying that they could have just used the Estrada/Happ/Chavez money on Price, but who are the 3rd/4th/5th starters in that scenario? Who is in AAA that can provide above replacement level depth in case someone gets hurt?"

the 3rd starter would be dickey.

leaving us with the horrific situation of having to - GASP - fill in the #4 and #5 slots on the cheap, with ONLY 3 good to very good young current mlb arms in that mix.

"Yes, because if they want to KEEP making the playoffs, they'll need to start developing their own talent."

Yeah, they only had 2 rookie of the year candidates last year, and only 1 the year before. pathetic.

"Not converting their best SP prospects into relievers"

I agree. Which is why spending $40m on depth SP was idiotic.


"not acquiring more $20M AAV players in their 30's, etc."

How does signing elite 30yr old players hurt player development?

"AA was against incentives, player options, and deals exceeding five years (due to Beeston influence). There was no way he would have re-signed Price, who signed for seven years with a player opt-out at the highest AAV ever for a pitcher at the time. As far as Price loving it in Toronto, maybe he did. That doesn't really prove he would have taken a discount to stay."

AA wanted to sign him, and would have made a competitive offer. Price wouldn't have needed to give us any real discount.

"Even Bautista and Edwin probably won't take discounts to stay, and they've both been in Toronto for much longer."

If the Jays had shown that winning was the highest priority for them by, say, signing a guy like David Price, Bautista and EE may have been tempted to sign a bit of a team friendlier deal just for the chance to win championships at the end of their careers.

But now, with the team clearly not prioritizing winning, and not interested in paying market value for free agents - with the team pulling the rug out from under them just when they thought management was past the frustrating half assedry that they've experienced most of their careers here - neither has any reason to stay here unless we're the highest bidder - and unless we outbid teams more committed to winning.

But don't worry you'll get your wish soon enough. Shapiro agrees with you. He'll continue to dismantle the best jays roster of all time and please you by never trading any prospects or signing any top free agents to market contracts....and maybe just maybe 5yrs down the road he'll have a new group of affordable young players with a shot at making the playoffs but this time built in a style more asthetically pleasing to you.

I only hope that the current awesome roster can win one before he dismantles it further.

No doubt, signing a team-friendly deal is the first thing Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion would've wanted to do after the Jays gave David Price the richest contract ever for a pitcher.

plenty examples of older aging stars (like say Ortiz and Pedroia in boston) taking team-friendlier deals to stay with a team they believe is always trying to win, even when they splash bigger contracts on lesser free agents.

"We're one of the teams with the brighest present and futures."

Repeating generalities doesn't make it correct (more on that below). Look at the Jays roster in terms of age and projected salary, and compare it to some of the teams I mentioned that built their rosters in the exact opposite way. You're delusional if you think the Jays are on that level (Cards, Cubs, Pirates, Astros, Mets, etc).


"leaving us with the horrific situation of having to - GASP - fill in the #4 and #5 slots on the cheap, with ONLY 3 good to very good young current mlb arms in that mix."

More generalities. So Sanchez and Osuna are young SP arms now when one hasn't even thrown 80 IP yet, and the other has one plus pitch that he hasn't learned how to command in five years. Those guys are talented and have upside, but you haven't made a single argument as to how that helps the team in 2016 by counting on them to pitch heavy workloads in the rotation. Sanchez as the #7 or 8 starter like he is today is a much better position. He has to learn how to pitch. Your change of stance on Dickey is also amusing. You called him replacement level a few weeks ago (which is untrue but I'm using your words).

"Yeah, they only had 2 rookie of the year candidates last year, and only 1 the year before. pathetic."

So who replaces Bautista and Edwin next season? How about Cecil and Storen? Dickey and Chavez? Certainly no one from the farm system, unless Alford goes nuts. I never said the Jays don't have good young talent, but those guys are not anywhere near their best players, and the team will need to start filtering more very soon in order to replace departing elite players or compensate for what should be declining elite players (Tulo/Martin). You can't expect to trade top prospects for $20M AAV players in their 30's without having it catch up to you. It's simply not a viable way to build a team long-term.


"I agree. Which is why spending $40m on depth SP was idiotic."

They spent $25M on three starters, not $40M, and secondly, how is it idiotic when they had no one to fill those spots? If Sanchez and Osuna were SP's in 2015 rather than thrown into the pen by a lameduck GM who didn't care about what happened the next day, maybe they would be viable rotation options right now. They couldn't continue to act so short-sighted.

If Price got injured or became merely mortal, like Verlander in his age-31 season, the Jays would be looking at a six- or seven-year playoff drought. That's a lot of risk to allocate to one acquisition.

Just because Price has been great to this point in his career (playoffs excepted) doesn't mean he's going to continue to be great for any length of time. Pitchers, especially those who have thrown a lot of innings, often decline in their 30s - Verlander, Lee, Halladay are a few recent examples. That's less of a problem when you have a top-five payroll. It's a big problem when your payroll is in the 10-15 range and the contract is as huge as Price's is.

It's reasonable for the president of a mid-market team like Toronto not to want to put all his eggs in one basket over a seven-year period.

"AA wanted to sign him, and would have made a competitive offer. Price wouldn't have needed to give us any real discount."


Ah yes, the old 'AA would have done it' argument, despite the fact that ownership hasn't changed, and AA had absolutely no history of signing any contract anywhere near that large.

AA really is the demigod of Toronto sports.


"If the Jays had shown that winning was the highest priority for them by, say, signing a guy like David Price, Bautista and EE may have been tempted to sign a bit of a team friendlier deal just for the chance to win championships at the end of their careers."

Two players who just spent the last half decade being criminally underpaid would voluntarily take significantly less than market value in their mid-30's because the Jays gave Price the highest AAV in history? Yeah, I'm not sure that logic adds up.

But I'm sure AA would have found a way to make it happen. Or something.


"But now, with the team clearly not prioritizing winning, and not interested in paying market value for free agents - with the team pulling the rug out from under them just when they thought management was past the frustrating half assedry that they've experienced most of their careers here - neither has any reason to stay here unless we're the highest bidder - and unless we outbid teams more committed to winning."


So they would have taken a pay cut if the Jays signed Price, but now they'll go to the highest bidder because Price signed somewhere else. I'm not even sure if that's a serious argument.

The entire off-season prioritized winning. It just wasn't the 'stars and scrubs' philosophy that no other well run organization currently employs but you seem to think it 100% sustainable.


"I only hope that the current awesome roster can win one before he dismantles it further."

The only contracted players from 2015 that are no longer on the team are Liam Hendriks and Ben Revere. He didn't dismantle anything. Free agents leaving for prices that the team couldn't afford is a weird way of describing "dismantling". If he traded Donaldson for prospects, then you'd have an argument.

Doesn't anyone care that Price has been pretty bad in the playoffs?

In hindsignt his teams wouldve been better off (statistically) if he wasn't even on the playoff roster.

Last year he had a 6.17 era in the playoffs. Surely Buehrle could've done better.

I do find it funny how many are pro-Price signing at a record dollar amount over 7 years. If you assume the Jays are about to start spending like the Yankees or Dodgers then that could make sense. But if you assume a budget of no more than $150 mil in the near term and a mid-range budget going forward (I suspect they'll drop to top 20 from top 10 with the low dollar) then risking $30 mil a year on one player, a pitcher at that, is just crazy.

Career WAR leaders for Jays and when they cliff dived...
Dave Stieb: age 33 went from Cy contender to under 5 wins per year
Roy Halladay: age 35 went from Cy (2nd) to 90 ERA+ to 55 to end.
Jimmy Key: age 37 went from 200 IP to 79 and done
Pat Hentgen: age 29 went from Cy contender to 'meh' age 32 dropped IP to sub 100, would get 100+ just once more
Jim Clancy: Age 33 signed a big (for the time) 3 year deal with Houston, leaving Toronto. Just 312 innings left in him 70 ERA+

That is the top 5 WAR guys for Toronto. All done between ages 32 and 37, only one a solid pitcher at all post age 35 (Jimmy Key who Gillick thought was done years earlier...go figure).

#6 Juan Guzman had less than 2 IP from age 33 on; #7 Roger Clemens we all know how he kept going; Henke was a closer; David Wells is one of those 'who knew' cases (pitched to age 44); Doyle Alexander had two meh years to end it (sub 90 ERA+, over 200 IP each time ages 37/38 actually made the All-Star team at 37).

So the guys who were effective later on in life were not the guys you'd expect - 'soft tossing' Jimmy Key, fat David Wells, and given up on many times earlier Doyle Alexander. Plus Roger Clemens*.

Who does David Price look most like? I'd say Stieb/Halladay/Hentgen/Guzman/Clemens so either he starts onto a PED regimen or you hope he takes the out clause in a couple years or you prepare to write off $30+ mil a year in the later years.

Don't forget about Price's player option after three years ... chances are that it's his second contract that becomes the albatross.

People here are overestimating the negatives of big FA contracts - they are not all bad!  Take a look at the top ten biggest all-time contracts.  Stanton is first at $325 mil, hard to evaluate after just one year.  A-Rod's first deal - $252 million for ten years, 3rd largest all-time - was a win for the Rangers / Yanks - he generated around $340 million over the length of the deal.  It was the SECOND contract that hurts - $155 million in value generated (all according to Fangraphs) with one year to go, at a cost of $275 million.  Cabrera is fourth and his extension kicks in this season. 

Pujols is a bad deal for the Angels, signed at age 32 for ten years (as opposed to age 30 and 7 years with an option for Price).  $65 million in value so far on a $240 million dollar deal - no way does he make it worthwhile for the Angels at age 36. 

Cano is TBD.  $56 million value thus far, with 8 more years.  He needs to get to $240 million total to make it a worthwhile deal for the M's. 

Votto has generated $65 million after 2 years of a 10 year $225 million dollar deal.... 59.2 million this season alone.

Price's deal is 8th, Kershaw is 9th and the dude has generated nearly $128 million in TWO YEARS.  He's gonna get $87 million over the next five no problem, barring catastrophic injury (and then of course there is insurance). 

Fielder comes in 10th place and his is a bad deal - $56 million in value in the first four years, five to go, no way he gets to $214 million in value. 

Two clear wins for the team (A-Rod's first and Kershaw), three clear losses (A-rod's second, Pujols, Fielder), and the rest are TBD. 

Bet on the right horse, avoid the older FAs / ten year commitments, and invest in guys who look to age well (so, for example, Price not Fielder). 

Another thing to keep in mind with Price is workload. He has a ton of mileage on his arm, over 1500 IP counting the post-season. We've seen what has happened to (non-PED) pitchers who were workhorses for a large chunk of their 20's and then saw a significant drop in their 30's, from Halladay, to Verlander, to Sabathia, to Johan, and so on. It is a very risky contract for Boston, and I'm positive they are rooting for Price to opt out. If he does, then it was likely a great investment for Boston. If he doesn't, then it's going to get ugly.

Doesn't anyone care that Price has been pretty bad in the playoffs?

Right. In the playoffs a good bullpen is as good as an ace, but you have to make it there.

Maybe it's how Cola does that determine if JB and EE are worth signing to 1B/DH.
Maybe it's how Alford and Tellez hit in the high minors.

I can't wait for spring training anymore. That's a good sign, right?

Last Postseason, Gibbons' best and almost only trusted Bullpen pieces were Osuna,Sanchez and Price! I have issues with pitching Starters more than 6.0 innings on the Postseason. So many days off means the Bullpen, if it's any good, can pitch every day, if needed.

I just think we shouldn't be surprised by any Pitching decisions made this Spring. The Jays must start out very well, but they must also survive very well - the season is so very long.

Interesting article in today's Globe & Mail on how expenses (eg a Price contract) impact Rogers' bottom line - the investors' holy EBITDA grail - more significantly for the majority-owned Blue Jays than for the Leafs or any other entity where they have less than 50% ownership.

While the point is a good one, it also ignores that no one can spend drastically on the basketball or hockey (or TFC for that matter) due to league rules in each (aka salary cap). MLB has a near cap at $189 million when the luxury tax kicks in but it hasn't stopped the Yanks & Dodgers from shooting over it annually and now the Tigers, Red Sox (at $198 mil each) will be easily over it and have trouble getting back down anytime soon.

I suspect in MLB the core revenues are growing fast enough that nearly any team can have a $150 mil budget (Oakland & Tampa exceptions as neither fan base has shown any inclination to support them win or lose) and soon that $189 level will be very obsolete. I suspect the next deal will have a much higher level before luxury tax kicks in at full strength but that there will be a couple of levels of it with the peak being more like 200% tax instead of 'just' a 100% tax. I'd like to see a 'cheapskate tax' too applying to teams sub $80 mil or maybe $100 mil with revenue from that being spread among all players making less than $5 mil a year. That tax would hit Tampa, Milwaukee, and Miami only this year (all in the $60's) while everyone else is $82 mil+ (even Oakland) with Oakland, Cleveland, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh and Arizona (barely - close thanks to Grinke's $34 mil) below $100 million as well.

To clarify about that Globe article, it's not simply because they own a larger share of the Jays, but different accounting rules that take the salary cost off EBITDA, one of the most important numbers affecting share price.

That isn't the case for MLSE entities.

With the lower Canadian dollar, the NHL salary cap should come down next year. Baseball revenues are still going up. The average US household has an extra $1000 to spend thanks to the low oil price.

It sorta make it sound like every dollar they spend on payroll drag their share price down.
The EBITDA is so high you're talking about the 3rd or 4th digit.
Also the number that gets added is earning; sales minus expenses.

Who knows the real cost of an expense that make them win an extra 10 games?
It's nowhere near 30M. Now, a capital expenditure on their networks that pays for itself in 20 years?
That goes in the EBITDA without a problem, they just amortize it.

I think it's a bit too early to expect anything from Alford and Tellez as far as 2017 plans. They certainly have the upside, but they are still in A+ and need to make the most difficult jump (A to AA).

Although, a great scenario for the Jays would be if Alford busts through the minors in 2016 and becomes a viable OF candidate in 2017, creating an OF of Pompey/Pillar/Alford (the defense + speed combo alone should help replace some of the offense lost from a value standpoint), but that's not something I expect to happen by the start of 2017. Maybe mid-season 2017, or 2018.

I think Chad Jenkins cleared waivers.

"Repeating generalities doesn't make it correct (more on that below). Look at the Jays roster in terms of age and projected salary, and compare it to some of the teams I mentioned that built their rosters in the exact opposite way. You're delusional if you think the Jays are on that level (Cards, Cubs, Pirates, Astros, Mets, etc). "

I was repeating your generalities, actually.

And there's nothing delusional about it. I've actually done the comparisons - have you?


"More generalities. So Sanchez and Osuna are young SP arms now when one hasn't even thrown 80 IP yet, and the other has one plus pitch that he hasn't learned how to command in five years. Those guys are talented and have upside, but you haven't made a single argument as to how that helps the team in 2016 by counting on them to pitch heavy workloads in the rotation. Sanchez as the #7 or 8 starter like he is today is a much better position. He has to learn how to pitch. Your change of stance on Dickey is also amusing. You called him replacement level a few weeks ago (which is untrue but I'm using your words)."

You're scared to put kids in the bullpen, and too scared to put them in the rotation. You're just scared in general. Like Shapiro.

Please, stop preaching the need to have kids if you're too scared to use them when you have them.

"So who replaces Bautista and Edwin next season?"

The idea would be to re-sign one of them, and then be faced with the horrific, awful, impossible situation of mixing in great defensive youth in the OF with smart creative 1B/DH signings to fill the last spot.

"How about Cecil and Storen?"

Bullpen arms are the easiest to replace. Building a good affordable bullpen from scratch in any given offseason is something good GMs can do.

"Dickey and Chavez?"

Osuna, Sanchez, Hutchison, Greene, smart FA signings.


"I never said the Jays don't have good young talent, but those guys are not anywhere near their best players,"

Clearly false, and a clear example of how wrong you are on the entire big picture of this team at the moment.

Try to understand - Stroman, Travis, and Pillar were amongst our very best performers last year. Quite literally only Donaldson performed better. That is not an exaggeration. Osuna and Sanchez as well were our best relievers. Again, not an exaggeration.

These guys are absolutely "near our best players", and very close to already being dependable impact MLBers, if they aren't already.




"They spent $25M on three starters, not $40M, and secondly, how is it idiotic when they had no one to fill those spots? If Sanchez and Osuna were SP's in 2015 rather than thrown into the pen by a lameduck GM who didn't care about what happened the next day, maybe they would be viable rotation options right now. They couldn't continue to act so short-sighted."

You realize that Sanchez was an SP in 2015, right?

But it is quite amusing to me that you think their usage last year has such a decisive impact on their usage going forward. That is just not correct.

"Ah yes, the old 'AA would have done it' argument, despite the fact that ownership hasn't changed, and AA had absolutely no history of signing any contract anywhere near that large.

AA really is the demigod of Toronto sports. "

AA showed a clear willingness to go hard after elite talent, and pay the price for it. He showed a clear love of Price, and we have reports that he was already doing preliminary preparations to attempt to sign him.

Believe what you want, but AA gets respect because he is the first GM since Gillick that showed the ability to acquire legit elite talent. For you not to respect that is weirder than anyone respecting him for it.


"Two players who just spent the last half decade being criminally underpaid would voluntarily take significantly less than market value in their mid-30's because the Jays gave Price the highest AAV in history? Yeah, I'm not sure that logic adds up. "

Yes, teams that show a clear dedication to winning always have an easier time signing free agents, even if they aren't the highest bid. Be sure that the logic adds up.



"The entire off-season prioritized winning. It just wasn't the 'stars and scrubs' philosophy that no other well run organization currently employs but you seem to think it 100% sustainable. "

No, the clear priority of the off-season was avoiding risk. Not winning.

Arguing otherwise is just naive.


"The only contracted players from 2015 that are no longer on the team are Liam Hendriks and Ben Revere. He didn't dismantle anything. Free agents leaving for prices that the team couldn't afford is a weird way of describing "dismantling". If he traded Donaldson for prospects, then you'd have an argument."

The price was affordable.

And we know Bautista and Encarnacion aren't being re-signed. And we know Donaldson's 2yr deal will be it.

And we know that the only chance we're making any deadline trades this year is if we're sellers, not buyers.

Don't be naive.

Interesting article in today's Globe & Mail on how expenses (eg a Price contract) impact Rogers' bottom line - the investors' holy EBITDA grail - more significantly for the majority-owned Blue Jays than for the Leafs or any other entity where they have less than 50% ownership.

Interesting article - thanks.

Which reminds me: when the Blue Jays came into existence (if I remember correctly), their ownership structure was 45% by Labatt's, 45% by R. Howard Webster, and 10% by CIBC. So nobody was over the magic 50%.

I don't know when Labatt's took over the whole team. Webster died in 1990, but the R. Howard Webster Foundation (which apparently inherited everything when he died) might not have sold out right away. And I don't know when CIBC sold their share either.

To be fair, some of the elite talent on the team (EE, Bautista, Cecil) pre-dates AA as GM. And Anthopoulos himself traded a lot of cheap elite or potentially elite/very good talent (Thor, d'Arnaud, Becerra, Barreto, Gomes, Norris, Hoffman, Castro, Tinoco).

And I say that as a supporter of Anthopoulos.

And we know Donaldson's 2yr deal will be it.

Donaldson will still be eligible for arbitration for the 2018 season, so why will this deal be "it"?

Stanton makes $107Mil over the first 6 years of his contract, and $218Mil over the last 7 years (ages 32-39 I believe).

"I was repeating your generalities, actually. And there's nothing delusional about it. I've actually done the comparisons - have you?"


I am giving you a specific tangible argument; you can't sustainably build a team the way AA was building it. No other current successful team in baseball has built their team in that manner. I'm not saying "we have a sustainable winner and the best roster in baseball" over and over again.

Please share the comparison if you still have it.


====================================================

"You're scared to put kids in the bullpen, and too scared to put them in the rotation. You're just scared in general. Like Shapiro."


No, I don't want to put prospects in a position to fail or underutilize them. Calling Sanchez up in 2014 was a terrible decision. He wasn't ready yet. The Jays have wasted nearly a year and a half of his service clock and he's no better off as a SP now than he was two years ago. You just want to plug him in the rotation because he's cheap and can fit the "we could have afforded Price" narrative. Young talent has to be ready in order to benefit from it.

The three best young players on the team are Stroman, Pillar, and Travis (to this point). Notice what they all have in common? Maybe the fact that they were not called up at age 20 or 21 when they were raw as hell. Funny how that works.

I want the team to get to a point where they can fill holes with prospects. That doesn't mean I want to put guys who are not ready in those spots. What AA did last year with 6-7 rookies to start the season was irresponsible.

I suspect in MLB the core revenues are growing fast enough that nearly any team can have a $150 mil budget (Oakland & Tampa exceptions as neither fan base has shown any inclination to support them win or lose) and soon that $189 level will be very obsolete. I suspect the next deal will have a much higher level before luxury tax kicks in at full strength but that there will be a couple of levels of it with the peak being more like 200% tax instead of 'just' a 100% tax. I'd like to see a 'cheapskate tax' too applying to teams sub $80 mil or maybe $100 mil with revenue from that being spread among all players making less than $5 mil a year. That tax would hit Tampa, Milwaukee, and Miami only this year (all in the $60's) while everyone else is $82 mil+ (even Oakland) with Oakland, Cleveland, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Pittsburgh and Arizona (barely - close thanks to Grinke's $34 mil) below $100 million as well.

Indeed, spending has been increasing. There are currently 17 teams with payrolls over $100M. The Jays sit 12th on the list; the O's are a hair behind them and will probably bump them to 13th (looks like one of Fowler or Gallardo will happen).

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Thanks JohnL, for linking the Globe article. It was a good read, despite the 'equity accounting method' bringing back horrifying memories of some university classes.

While I can appreciate that Rogers' accounting method makes the recognition of certain revenues less palatable for Rogers shareholders, it's still a choice that is at least partially driven by perception. As the article states, shareholders don't want to have a bunch of money sunk into a corporate division that may be considered an 'ego play'. As some in the media have challenged, this could also be considered investment spending. Goodwill is a very real thing that is accounted for in financial statements. How do you quantify what the Blue Jays brand is worth to Rogers or what the capital potential of the team is across the country?

I don't think the Jays will drift down into the bottom 10 of payroll again, but I'm not sure I see them sneaking into the top 10 again either (i.e. this would have been the year to do it), whatever reason they come up with.

"The idea would be to re-sign one of them, and then be faced with the horrific, awful, impossible situation of mixing in great defensive youth in the OF with smart creative 1B/DH signings to fill the last spot."


What if their demands are too unreasonable? What if they get a better offer elsewhere? Pujols was far more beloved in St. Louis than Bautista in Toronto, and he left (and subsequently declined, FYI). What if the team doesn't believe Bautista is worth keeping around at age 36-39 or Edwin at age 34-37? You're going to have to replace those guys.


===========================================

"Bullpen arms are the easiest to replace. Building a good affordable bullpen from scratch in any given offseason is something good GMs can do."


I agree with this, but Cecil and Storen can be classified as very good RP's (1+ WAR). That's not as easy to replace.

===========================================

"Clearly false, and a clear example of how wrong you are on the entire big picture of this team at the moment."


Pillar, yes, but his value was dependent so much on defense that I doubt you'll find anyone projecting him to repeat 2015 again. Still a good player, maybe 2+ WAR, but not the elite talent he was last year unless hit bat takes a step forward.

Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Bautista, and Edwin are the best players on the team. That's pretty undeniable. Teams like the Mets have their best players as their young controllable talent (their pitching staff) and supplement them with vets. Same with the Cubs. And so on. Doing it the other way around doesn't have the same shelf-life.


===========================================

"You realize that Sanchez was an SP in 2015, right?"

In the Majors (when he was ready), and for 11 starts. He was a reliever for most of the season when he was healthy.

As far as their usage, if Osuna had thrown 120 IP in the minors in 2015, wouldn't that make him far more likely to be a starter in 2016 than throwing 70+ IP out of the pen? He helped the team in 2015, but it was short-sighted.

"AA showed a clear willingness to go hard after elite talent, and pay the price for it. He showed a clear love of Price, and we have reports that he was already doing preliminary preparations to attempt to sign him."


Preliminary prep in August 2015 when his contract ended in October 2015, when he didn't know if he would have had a job offer after that, when he knew his ownership never would have green-lighted a move like that, and when he himself has admitted to not liking player incentives included in contracts (which Price has in Boston).

Morosi was trolling the Toronto fan base. None of what he said made any sense.

=============================================

"Believe what you want, but AA gets respect because he is the first GM since Gillick that showed the ability to acquire legit elite talent. For you not to respect that is weirder than anyone respecting him for it."

Bautista and Encarnacion were on the team he inherited, for what it's worth. He also traded Roy Halladay, who was an elite talent.

I give him all the credit in the world for Donaldson, and to a lesser extent Martin. Every GM makes good moves here and there.

=============================================

"Yes, teams that show a clear dedication to winning always have an easier time signing free agents, even if they aren't the highest bid. Be sure that the logic adds up."

You were implying that they would have signed for less if the Jays re-signed Price. How does that add up? Sure, they would probably choose Toronto if the highest bidder was a crappy franchise and the offers were close, but they'd do the same thing even if Price wasn't on the team. In other words, I don't know what Price has to do with anything as it relates to re-signing those two.

=============================================

"No, the clear priority of the off-season was avoiding risk. Not winning."

He traded four years of Hendriks for 1 year of Chavez. He traded two years of Revere for 1 year of Storen. Those two moves likely added a win or more on 2016 projections depending on how you view the talent. Happ wasn't signed to avoid risk; he was signed because he was affordable in a crazy market. Everyone else from last season's team was kept, but the team has much more depth now which should help a lot. I don't see how that's a sign of dismantling anything.

=============================================

"Don't be naive."

The funny part is, if I had to predict, I would agree that Bautista/EE won't be back, and Donaldson is probably gone after 2018. The part we disagree on is that I don't necessarily think those are the wrong outcomes (it's debatable with Donaldson). If they develop and draft like they should, then maybe that won't hurt as much as you seem to think it will.

"To be fair, some of the elite talent on the team (EE, Bautista, Cecil) pre-dates AA as GM"

AA was behind the Bautista acquisition - even though JPR was GM, it was his idea and JPR simply signed off on it.

And he was behind both of those wonderful extensions.

"The three best young players on the team are Stroman, Pillar, and Travis (to this point)."

Stroman made all of 27 starts in the minors before being called up for good. That's hardly a methodical developmental approach.

Pillar and Travis are a totally different kind of prospect - overachievers with limited pedigree aren't the sort of talents you rush. Elite, front of the rotation starters like Sanchez (potentially) and Stroman are.

Stroman made all of 27 starts in the minors before being called up for good.

And 27 starts at Duke.

Stroman was started in the bullpen in the year of his draft because of all of his college innings that year.  He had 27 AA and AAA starts, and succeeded at both levels.  Promoting a collegiate 1st round draft starting pitcher who has succeeded in 27 high minors starts is typical and good development practice.  Sanchez' situation is quite different.  He was walking 5 batters per 9 innings in the high minors and allowed almost 5 runs per game whereas Stroman allowed 3 and a half while walking half as many.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318606
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318604

So shall Sanchez start his 2016 in Buffalo or New Hamsphire ? Given also Hutchison may not win his rotation spot and Osuna stretched out in Buffalo or New Hamsphire, Chavez would then almost guarantee his 5th starter spot. The 6th and 7th starter whom Sanchez and Hutchison were slotted for would be a fight among Diamond, Copeland, Floyd and Jenkins -- from a previous poster's idea.

Sanchez's BB:K ratio in the majors:

As a starter: 37:42 (66 IP)
As a reliever: 16:46 (59.1 IP)

Make of it what you will. He could end up being a very good starter, but there is certainly an argument to be made for keeping him in the 'pen as an elite setup man.

Sean Nolan has been DFA'd

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318377
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318608

If Sanchez could be compared to Jenkins, Floyd, Hernandez for their similar dilemmas for starter and reliever, shall the bullpen and rotation take in all starter/reliever combo candidates besides other pitchers who have settled into obvious roles of either starter or reliever ? If so, Buffalo's bullpen can be ranked with potential call-ups. Once any starter/reliever fails his test by performance, he would be removed from active roster for a reliever call-up.

And 27 starts at Duke

Right.  College starters tend to start in college.  I can put it differently if you like Chuck - 15 relief appearances in 2012, his first pro season, 20 starts in 2013, his one full season in the minors, and 7 the next year before his call-up. 

My point remains the same - he was promoted aggressively and spent little time in the minors, and it does not appear to have impeded his progress. 

Mike Green,  'pushed aggressively' will mean completely different things for a HS pitcher and a college arm - but it's the pedigree of both Sanchez and Stroman that lead to their being pushed aggressively.  Look at the other college pitchers picked ahead of Stroman in 2012 - Zimmer just reached AA this year.  Gausman had a similar minor league career to Stroman but hasn't had the same big league success.  Appel is still in AAA, and struggling.  Wacha beat Stroman to the bigs by a full year and is a stud, but Chris Stratten is in AAA, and Andrew Heaney had moderate success for the Angels for the first time this year. 

It just worked in Stroman's case more than Sanchez's - and Sanchez is starting to look to me like a a Henderson Alvarez type who doesn't need the great ratios to be successful. 

Stroman was a college pitcher and had a much more conventional route to the Majors. Aside from his college workload as others mentioned, he had great Double-A numbers over 20 starts and then at age 23 was dominating AAA with the peripherals to back it up. He could have stayed in the minors longer if they wanted to preserve some of his service time but he was clearly ready for the promotion when he was called up. If they called him in 2013 and pitched him out of the big league pen right away, then that would have been somewhat comparable to what they did with Sanchez.

Yes, there is a difference in that Sanchez was a high school draftee, but that's precisely why he shouldn't have been rushed to the bigs without the performance to justify it. He still to this day has one plus pitch which he can't command consistently. Maybe that changes in the Spring, but how could a guy with a year and a half of big league experience be the same pitcher he was two years ago and expect to turn into the type of talent he's capable of becoming? He's someone who needed to earn every promotion from A+ onwards, and the only way to do that would have been to work on his secondary stuff, try to improve his fastball command, and then hope something clicked. Wasting away a year and a half of his service clock, mostly in relief, and 11 starts with a BB/9 of 5 and a FIP over 5.00, seems like a waste. His MLB performance as a SP is exactly how one could have predicted it based on his minor league track record, and that's unfair to him as a talent, and not very beneficial to the Jays if they want to maximize his first six years of team control.

Look at how the Mets used Syndergaard, for example. It's night and day compared to how the Jays handled inferior pitching prospects. Heck, Syndergaard had more AAA innings (162.2) before being called up than Sanchez, Osuna, Castro, Hutchison, and Norris combined prior to their call-ups, and he was pitching in Vegas (so no PCL excuse).

The reason I mentioned Stroman, Pillar, and Travis was because they all had a good amount of minor league innings/at bats, and were older when called up. That's partly because they were older when drafted, but all three of them each have 1 year of service time and have accumulated WAR's of 3.5 (Stroman), 5.0 (Pillar), and 2.3 (Travis) so far. The Jays are getting much more value out of them and that's the point of building internally. You don't want to waste a prospect's development time in the Majors because then by the time they turn the corner and become legit MLB talent, they may already be arb eligible and expensive (see Alex Rios many years ago). If Hutchison figures things out in 2016, guess what? He will only have two more years of control left, and it feels like we've barely seen him.

It's too late to change things now with the existing talent, but I'm confident that the new regime will be better with promotions for the upcoming minor league talent.

Not very surprising. He throws left but it's in the 80s with little fluff.

Alex Rios is not a good example. He's a model of inconsistency.

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318610

In my last post, "Hernandez" shall be "LeBlanc' but I guess some readers would not care.

Regarding Sanchez and similarly Osuna, why not let them play as starter 2016 in New Hamsphire because they have already been exposed to MLB anyway ? If any of them excel in 2016 like Stroman of the past, then promote to Buffalo, then to Toronto again. Toronto has plenty of starter/reliever combo for the 5th to 7th starter: Chavez, Floyd, Jenkins, LeBlanc, not to mention watchers of the rotation from the outside -- Copeland, Diamond. For relievers,

http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318512

Richard S.S. holds two lists of recently acquired pitchers. From those lists, Toronto seems to stack choices from available relievers.

"The funny part is, if I had to predict, I would agree that Bautista/EE won't be back, and Donaldson is probably gone after 2018. The part we disagree on is that I don't necessarily think those are the wrong outcomes (it's debatable with Donaldson). "

which speaks to my biggest problem with you and shapiro's position - you guys simply don't appreciate how good and rare a collection of talent we have actually is, and as such don't feel any urgency to capitalize on it now, and are more worried about what the team will look like 5yrs from now. which imo is crazy.

Colt Hynes, who made the team out of spring training last year, is back with the Jays/Bisons.

Predicting a team's lineup in 5 years time is the ultimate mug's game in my mind. Sometimes you see a baseball magazine or web site make such a prediction and they basically use the team's present young stars and top prospects at each position, and the results, as if anybody ever keeps track, would probably be always hilariously wrong. Variables such as injuries, prospects not turning out, unheralded prospects emerging, trades, free agent signings, etc., etc. make it almost impossible to prophesy the future. I'll go out a limb, though, and guess that if Bautista and Encarnacion are both gone after this year, then the Jays will make every effort to resign Donaldson after the 2017 season.

When people "don't feel good", they generally do something. Sometimes they see the Doctor, sometime they open the "get better door" in the bathroom and sometimes they go to the Store/Drugstore to get "something that works". No one reads the fine print and some don't even read the label. They ask, "Does this work"?

When a High School Hitter/Pitcher is drafted, it's extremely rare he's in the Majors within the first 12 months. It takes an exceptional talent and a strong personality to do that. To reach the Majors within the first 26 months is absolutely amazing. Generally the best arrive within the first four years. After six years only extreme long shots remain.

When a College/University Hitter/Pitcher is drafted, the very best make it to the Majors in their draft year, showing an exceptional talent and a strong personality. To reach the majors in the first 14 months is still exceptional. Generally the best arrive within the first 26 months. After three years only extreme long shots remain.

Marcus Stroman would have been a September call-up in his draft year. He was suspended 50 games for not feeling well and 'not reading the fine print'. He was called up as soon as he was stretched out and pitching effectively, within 10 months, including an offseason, of his draft year. That shows an exceptional talent; perhaps 'one of the very best'; a rare talent. To consider him as anything less, might be a mistake.

then the Jays will make every effort to resign Donaldson after the 2017 season.

Just a reminder that Donaldson will not be a FA until 2019, and that the Jays would only have to offer him arbitration in 2018 to keep him.

It's too late to change things now with the existing talent, but I'm confident that the new regime will be better with promotions for the upcoming minor league talent.

Sk, you are a thoughtful poster and I always enjoy reading what you write ... but I think you are being way too black and white when it comes to prospect development.  There is absolutely no 'proven' best approach for player promotions / development.  Just look at your fave org, the Cards - 2012 first rounder Steven Piscotty was promoted halfway through this season after 1.5 years of adequacy in AAA, and he was more successful in St. Louis than in the PCL.  I assume you would have left him in AAA.  Do you fault them for Kolten Wong's struggles in the bigs?  Have they wasted Trevor Rosenthal's potential in the pen?  Carlos Martinez apprenticed for 1.5 years in the pen before transitioning effectively to the rotation - were they wasting his service time?

It seems odd to me that you call last year a 'waste' of Sanchez's service time - most people would take a year as a key arm in a pen that helped the team get close to the WS as a success.

Also, I think Pillar is a poor example for your point - arguably, he was promoted aggressively as a 32nd rounder who reached the bigs - and sucked - in his third pro season. 

and Hutch lost over a year to injury, so not entirely fair to blame early promotions on him - although in his case, I tend to agree with you that he was rushed.

"how good and rare a collection of talent we have"

Yes - in 2015 and 2016, this was and remains a very talented team. The problem is that after 2016, I would not classify Encarnacion, Bautista, Tulo and Martin as a "rare collection of talent." In 2017 and beyond, given their respective ages (in 2017, they will be 34, 36, 32 and 33) they are likely to be a good, not great, injury-prone quartet of veteran players (when you take an honest, not romanticized view, of their offense, defense and baserunning) - probably more like +2 to +3 WAR players instead of +4 to +5 WAR players.

The rest of the team includes some good young players (Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, Pillar, Pompey, with a few interesting prospects on the horizon for 2017 or 2018), but I wouldn't describe the projected roster as a rare or exceptional collection of talent.

The general policy of predicting what a team will look like in the future is done by everyone, including those inside the Team. This year, next year, and the year after are the absolute limits considered. Any contracts signed beyond that time are someone else' problems. Basically, day before yesterday, yesterday, today, tomorrow and the day after are the absolute limits of time that people will use. Most likely, yesterday, today and tomorrow are the limits. Few people plan longer than that. Few people think longer than that.

In Baseball, acquisitions, whether signings or trades can occur so suddenly as to be franchise-changing. Decisions made or not made can change a Team's future in a heartbeat. Planning for next year can be so uncertain as to be almost impossible.

For an example, although there are others:
Jake Peavy declines extension and accepts trade. Beeston doesn't veto the Anibal Sanchez contract. And A.A. makes his Big Hitter (?) signing.
Result:
The Miami trade doesn't happen, but the New York trade might (for different people). (They replace Josh Johnson with Sanchez and Mark Buehrle with Peavy. Melky Cabrera is not the Outfielder signed.) Blue Jays most likely make the Postseason in 2013. Payroll is not frozen in 2014.
Comment:
Although three decisions were changed in above example, just one might have made enough of a difference.

. . . but it's the pedigree of both Sanchez and Stroman that lead to their being pushed aggressively.

jerjapan, it pains me to point this one out, what with you being a teacher and all.  You are using the past tense, and the past tense of “lead” is led. 

Eternal vigilance, lad.  Nothing less is required. :)

"Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Bautista, and Edwin are the best players on the team. That's pretty undeniable. Teams like the Mets have their best players as their young controllable talent (their pitching staff) and supplement them with vets"

Let's microscope this claim, lookng at all the numbers as of last season. WAR is my usual average WAR. Contract refers to all post-2015 committments:


Top 10:

Price (29, Free Agent): 6.8war, 6.8war/32gs
Cespedes (29, Free Agent): 6.5war, 6.3war/650pa

Donaldson (29, 3yrs control): 8.8war, 8.0war/650pa
DeGrom (27, 5yrs Control): 5.2war, 5.6war/32gs

Bautista (34, $14m/1yrs): 4.8war, 4.7war/650pa
Granderson (34, $15m/2yrs): 5.1war, 4.9war/650pa

Pillar (26, 5yrs Control): 4.8war, 4.9war/650pa
Harvey (26, 3yrs Control): 4.6war, 5.0war/32gs

EE (32, $10m/1yrs): 4.6war, 4.8war/650pa
Duda (29, 2yrs Control): 3.1war, 3.6war/650pa

Martin (32, $18m/4yrs): 3.4war, 4.4war/650pa
D'Arnaud (26, 4yrs control): 2.0war, 4.9awar/650pa

Tulo (30, $19.5m x 5yrs): 2.6war, 3.2war/650pa
Wright (32, $17.5m x 5yrs): 0.7war, 2.6war/650pa

Stroman (24, 5yrs Control): 1.0war, 7.6war/32gs
Syndergaard (22, 6yrs Control): 2.8war, 3.7war/32gs

Travis (24, 6yrs control): 2.4war, 6.4war/650pa
Conforto (22, 6yrs control): 2.1war, 7.0war/650pa

Pompey (22, 6yrs control): 0.5war, 2.8war/650pa
Matz (24, 6yrs control): 0.9war, 4.8war/32gs

X-Factor

Sanchez (22, 6yrs control): 0.7war, 1.9war/32gs
Wheeler (26, 4yrs control): ------- (2014: 1.9war, 1.9war/32gs)

And that doesn’t even include the youngest player in baseball last year, who also happened to be a rookie of the year candidate.

You are using the past tense, and the past tense of “lead” is led.

Oh man, good point Dewey.  I should know better than that! 

Any Team is made up of:
(1)Prospects drafted by the Team;
(2)Trades made using prospects drafted by the Team;
(3)Trades made using assets to acquire assets;
(4)Trades made using assets to acquire Prospects;
(5)Free Agent signings;
(6)IFA signings (possible World-Wide Draft)
(7)Waiver, Rule 5 Draft, etc.

(1)Brett Cecil, Ryan Goins, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Loup, Kevin Pillar, Dalton Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Ryan Tepera;
(2)Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, Josh Donaldson, Josh Thole, Troy Tulowitzki;
(3)Jessy Chavez, Steve Delabar, Edwin Encarnacion, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Michael Saunders, Drew Storen;
(4)Devon Travis;
(5)Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera, Gavin Floyd, Russell Martin;
(6)Roberto Osuna;
(7)Joe Biagini, Darrell Ceciliani, Chris Colabello, Junior Lake, Arnold Leon, Bo Schultz, Justin Smoak, Pat Venditte.

Comment:
I don't think there was an overpay for anyone. Every single player is an exceptional pick/deal/acquisition.

"Alex Rios is not a good example. He's a model of inconsistency."


Rios was called up in 2004 when he was basically a singles hitter who was struggling mightily in AAA. He was good enough defensively to at least provide value there, but that seemed like a pretty unnecessary call-up when it happened.

Not all prospects are the same. Even some who get ample AAA time may not develop until a few years later, or may not develop at all, so it's not an exact science. It's just common sense to have prospects, especially the younger ones, prove they are ready by performing in the minors prior to being called up. This "develop in the big leagues" strategy that AA and some fans here seem to think is a good idea is a pretty good way of not maximizing the first six years of a player's service time.

yeah, leave them down till they only have 6 good years left. That way no one else can benefit either.

You can potentially get a lot for one year of Donaldson and it might be better to trade him to a team with the money to extend him to keep him out of the AL East. Anything's possible.

Gibby gets some love with a #10 ranking in Nick Cafardo's ranking of managers:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/13/ranking-major-league-managers/2uMbIsDuIuhvMIEGTmniNI/story.html?event=event25

"yeah, leave them down till they only have 6 good years left. That way no one else can benefit either."


Call them up when they're ready. It could be at age 21 or 25. That's up to scouting reports and performance. But don't call them up at 21 if they can't find the strike zone and have no secondary pitches. That's when you waste service time.

It's not rocket science. If you have them under control for six years, why not try to get the best six years you can get? Why call them up when they are raw as hell and unfinished products just to see them struggle for 3-4 years and then get good when their close to free agency?

There's a reason Syndergaard just put up a 3+ WAR season and still has six years of control left. Osuna and Sanchez both become free agents before he does; one pitcher hasn't thrown more than 80 innings in a season, and the other still needs to work on secondary stuff and command. That's ridiculous. Good organizations know how to develop talent and when to call them up. The Jays have struggled with that, with a few exceptions, for a reason. I don't see how that's even debatable.

BA did their organizational rankings and dropped the Jays from 9th last year to 24th this year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/organization-talent-rankings-list/

Not just Law.

"It seems odd to me that you call last year a 'waste' of Sanchez's service time - most people would take a year as a key arm in a pen that helped the team get close to the WS as a success."


It depends on your perspective. I think the Cards using Carlos Martinez as a reliever was a mistake on their part. I don't hate their use of Rosenthal because they used him as a reliever and kept him there. If that's how they wanted to get value out of him, or if that's where they felt he was going to be long-term, then so be it. He's a 2 WAR reliever. They are justified in liking him in that role. The Cardinals have a history developing talent.

As I said, there is no set way to develop prospects. There are too many variables involved and I certainly don't pretend like my opinion is gospel on that (or anything else). My point is simply that calling guys up before they have developed is not the best use of them. From a financial/value standpoint, the team is hurting itself by limiting the $/WAR they get from prospects if they call them up when they are raw and unready. That doesn't mean waiting longer will yield better results, as MLB coaching might help the prospect more than additional minor league time, but you still want to err on the side of caution. At least that's how I would do it.

One more note on prospect lists. Both BA and Law have Alford as the only Jay in their Top 100; BA at 25, Law at 52. Law does place Connor Greene in his "Just missed the Top 100".

Gibby gets some love with a #10 ranking in Nick Cafardo's ranking of managers:

Nice to see him getting love - he's such a a likable dude and had something of a Cito type-year - getting the quality vets to play as a team and maximizing individual performance without any flashy Madden-like moves.  He deserves 10th or so IMO, but hard to fully trust a list that has John Farrel 14th - ahead of Kevin Cash.

The BA ranking of the farm system is a bit more worrisome to me than Law's- BA are far more likely to value tools and ceiling, which fits with the Toronto approach.  I still think we are being slept on a bit, but I'm starting to feel like mine is more of the minority viewpoint on the issue. 

BA's ranking isn't surprising given the sheer quantity and quality of talent traded away at the deadline last year:

For Price: Norris, Boyd, Labourt
For Tulo: Hoffman, Castro, Tinoco
For Revere: Tirado, Cordero
For Lowe: Wells, Brentz, Rasmussen
For Pennington: Lugo

And that's on top of trading Barreto, Graveman and Nolin for Donaldson.

To be ranked #24 after all those moves is a testament to how well Anthopoulos replenished the system after the Miami and Mets trades emptied it out.

Also, while I thought Anthopoulos made a wonderful series of moves over his last year in Toronto, I can see why Shapiro would prefer to develop his own minimum-wage rotation along the lines of Stroman, Syndergaard, Sanchez, Osuna, Norris and Hoffman (maybe add Desclafani and Boyd for depth).

Of the Shortstops traded, Jose Reyes was losing ground rapidly defensively and his offense suffered as a result. Franklin Baretto could be something really special in 3-4 years, if he can stay a Shortstop. Dawel Lugo was losing his job as a Shortstop and was having trouble playing elsewhere.

Of the LHP traded, Sean Nolin is a best, an adequate 5th Starter. Daniel Norris had trouble getting people out and then was worse when sent to AAA. He had some success (SSS) in Detroit, but he's still a work in progress. Matt Boyd is at best, a decent 5th Starter. Jairo Labourt last pitched well in Vancouver (A-) in 2014 and has sucked since. Rule 5 decision time due soon. Nick Wells has struggled since signing and is at least 4 or more years away. Jacob Brentz has struggled in Rookie ball since signing in 2013. He's at least 4-5 years away. Rob Rasmussen is a AAAA pitcher, nothing more.

Of the RHP traded, Kendall Graveman is at best a good 4th or 5th Starter. Jeff Hoffman, according to some Jay sources, is nowhere close to being what he was prior to surgery. He was traded because it's thought he might not get it back. What he was, the Jays didn't care. (I think he could be an average #2 Starter to a good #3 Starter, but not before 2018.) Miguel Castro really struggles getting people out. I think he needs to go to AA and work on what he needs to work on. He's 2-3 years away. Jesus Tinoco struggled for three years in Rookie, but found success in Mid-A ball. He's four years away. Jimmy Cordero is an average Minor League Reliever who might make it in 2-3 years. Alberto Tirado is more of a Reliever than a Starter and is about 3-4 years away.

As for what else was traded, Brett Lawrie was maxed out here and is unlikely to get much better.

It's all and well to moan and groan about losses, but at least try to be objective when judging trades. The Jays got to within two games of a World Series berth. They got to keep the reigning American League Most valuable Player. They got to keep one of the very best Shortstops in all of Baseball. They traded for a bona fide top ranked Closer. They are the Favorite to repeat.

To enumerate the number of seasons for development according to Richard S. S. list
http://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=318641

Nolin: 0 season, not counted
Norris: 1 season at least
Baretto: 3+ season
Lugo: not counted because his status cannot be prospected at this moment
Boyd: 0 season, not counted
Labourt: not counted
Wells: 4+ season
Brentz: 5 season
Rasmussen: 0 season, not counted
Graveman: 0 season, not counted
Hoffman: not counted
Castro: 2+ season
Tinoco: 4 season
Cordero 2+ season
Tirado: 4 season
Lawrie: 0 season, not coun ted

8 players for 1 + 3plus + 4plus + 5 + 2plus + 4 + 2plus + 4 = 25plus seasons. The average is 3.125+ season or means 4 season plus to account for injury and other delays.

2015 + 4 = 2019. Who knows what would happen in 2019 season ?

Per Ken Rosenthal:

"Of course, the [Tulowitzki] trade also cost the Jays three minor-league pitchers – 'three great arms,' in the view of one scout who tracks the Jays’ system."

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/troy-tulowitzki-trade-toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-ken-rosenthal-072815?vid=492340291747

Yea!!!!!!!!
1 week till pitchers and catchers report and we'll finally have something else to talk about........... I hope

There usually isn't much positive to discuss just from the catchers and pitchers camp.
But the real stuff is just a couple of weeks away.

The most important thing in spring training is that the players stay healthy. Everything else is secondary.

We guess and speculate a lot as Bauxites. That will always happen.

Now we get to see what/how our new FO performs.

Every FO for the Jays through their history has had parameters to work within. Budget and players on the team determine the goal of the team.

I believe as most Bauxites do that this year our goal is to contend with a team that seems strong enough to do the job.

The FO cannot predict injuries and poor performance. But should be able to evaluate which player has performed better than another. If healthy C Janssen always performed very well. Yet very often he was in danger of not making the Opening Day team because he had options. I always KNEW that he was good. Then he proved it by being very good. I felt good about being correct in my evaluation.
Josh Towers however always had me stumped. He did better than I expected. So I was wrong too.

I hope that this FO chooses the best players, rather than accumulate assets based on out of options.

As usual this is an opinion, nothing more.

"There usually isn't much positive to discuss just from the catchers and pitchers camp.
But the real stuff is just a couple of weeks away."

Here I'm looking for any little glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel and you have to throw water on it... Thanks a lot :)

and to re-do that Mets Comp with 2yr stats:


Donaldson (29, 3yrs control): 15.7war, 7.3war/650pa
DeGrom (27, 5yrs Control): 8.7war, 5.4war/32gs

Price (29, Free Agent): 12.0war, 5.8war/32gs
Cespedes (29, Free Agent): 10.2war, 5.0war/650pa

Bautista (34, $14m/1yrs): 11.0war, 5.3war/650pa
Granderson (34, $15m/2yrs): 6.4war, 3.1war/650pa

Pillar (26, 5yrs Control): 5.5war, 4.8war/650pa
Harvey (26, 3yrs Control): 4.6war, 5.0war/32gs

Martin (32, $18m/4yrs): 8.6war, 5.8war/650pa
D'Arnaud (26, 4yrs control): 2.8war, 2.6awar/650pa

Tulo (30, $19.5m x 5yrs): 8.0war, 5.7war/650pa
Wright (32, $17.5m x 5yrs): 3.0war, 2.5war/650pa

EE (32, $10m/1yrs): 8.2war, 4.6war/650pa
Duda (29, 2yrs Control): 6.5war, 3.7war/650pa

Stroman (24, 5yrs Control): 3.7war, 4.9war/32gs
Syndergaard (22, 6yrs Control): 2.8war, 3.7war/32gs

X-Factors

Travis (24, 6yrs control): 2.4war, 6.4war/650pa
Conforto (22, 6yrs control): 2.1war, 7.0war/650pa

Pompey (22, 6yrs control): 0.6war, 2.5war/650pa
Matz (24, 6yrs control): 0.9war, 4.8war/32gs

Sanchez (22, 6yrs control): 0.7war, 1.9war/32gs
Wheeler (26, 4yrs control): 1.9war, 1.9war/32gs)

Chad Jenkins has been outrighted to Buffalo. It's good that the Jays were able to keep him in the fold as a depth option.

Jeff Zimmerman ranked the farm systems at Fangraphs, He used the BA individual prospect rankings to calculate the predicted surplus WAR that each org's prospects should generate - a methodology which has us in 20th, ahead of the Giants and just behind the Cubs, somewhat surprisingly.  Boston continues to dominate the org rankings and is comfortably in first - even after giving up a ton of talent in the Kimbrel trade - while Shapiro's old team the Clevelands come in at 16th, one spot ahead of their original BA ranking. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-farm-systems-ranked-by-surplus-war/

They also ranked the best moves of the offseason and praised the Cubs for their signing of Lackey, Heyward and Zobrist.  It's gotta be a fun time to be a Cubs fan.

He was never on our radar, but I really wish that we could have somehow scored Zobrist to play 2B till Travis returns and then slide over to a LF / super utility role.  Looking at the whole list of transactions, it seems that this was a great year to be looking for position players - the Gordon and Cespedes deals in particular look like steals right now. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-transactions-of-the-2016-off-season/

"He used the BA individual prospect rankings to calculate the predicted surplus WAR that each org's prospects should generate - a methodology which has us in 20th"

solid objective methodology, resulting in a rank that feels right to me.

pompey missing the cutoff by a handful of at bats really hurts us in the rankings. with him in there we'd be right middle of the pack.

also worth a note that our lower minors players under Anthopolous have consistently moved up the rankings quickly. It was amusing to see how many of our pre-season unranked prospects last year had turned into very good prospects after we traded them midseason.

Interesting that neither Happ/Estrada/Chavez/Storen/Floyd nor Price made Cameron's list of best off-season moves (or his list of honourable mentions).

They also ranked the best moves of the offseason and praised the Cubs for their signing of Lackey, Heyward and Zobrist.

John Lackey (37), 2 years $32.0 Million (AAV $16.0). This was an overpay, he's 37! Any contract, but one of more than a year is extremely risky.
Ben Zobrist (34), 4 years $56.0 Million (AAV $14.0). This was an overpay, he'll be 35 in May. This is too much term, his power is gone.
Jason Heyward (26), 8 years $184 Million (AAV $23.0). Six year career, 3429 plate appearances: .268 .353 .431. What's Kevin Pillar now worth?

Did they really get praised for who they signed or because they actually went out and spent money?

I have to disagree with you on this one Richard, I think the Zobrist deal in particular was clear value to the Cubs.  If you use $8 million as the going fate for WAR on the FA market this offseason, his 3 WAR steamer projection for 2016 is worth $24 million.  If his aging costs him .5 WAR per year, his deal is already good value for the Cubs in year 3, without even considering WAR.  not to mention his positional versatility which isn't reflected in his WAR value (I don't think??) - having Zobrist on the roster is great for mixing and matching lineups, dealing with platoons and injuries, defensive replacements, etc. 

The same math means that Heyward's deal pays for itself after 7 seasons - again, without inflation which will doubtless lead to a WAR of much more than $8 million per on the FA market by the end of the deal.  Not to mention the likelihood that he opts out after 3 years - since the value to the team is frontloaded into a FA contract, this would still be a win for the Cubs. 

FWIW, Dave Cameron had those two deals as his two best value moves of the offseason. 

For those who are interested, Fangraphs has a Podcast on which Dave Cameron is a regular guest.

J.A. Happ (33), 3 years, $36.0 Million, was a good value signing and turned out to be even better as the Offseason progressed. It's seen on the outside as an overpay for a 5th Starter. He pitched some really good games while he was in Toronto as well as breaking hearts. Did the changes made in Pittsburgh take him back to his 2009 or did it just improve the existing? I think he can be much, much more.

Marco Estrada (32), 2 years, $26.0 Million, was also a good value signing and turned out to be even better as the Offseason progressed. His season was seen as an outlier, not a progression. There was a turning point (June 24th) in the season when he became so much more. Very, very few Pitchers have a Team this good, both Offensively and Defensively, behind them. I think he can be better.

Blue Jays trade their 5th-ranked Reliever for a Decent #5 Starter. Liam was never going to be more than that. Jesse Chavez (32), 1 year, $4.0 Million, was a good acquisition. Outside Liam Hendriks (27), Pre-Arb, is seen as a Back of the Bullpen power-arm. The Jays needed someone good to reprise the Estrada role. I think this was a good acquisition.

Blue Jays trade their least valuable surplus Outfielder for a top-ranked Back of the Bullpen power-arm Closer. Drew Storen (28), 1 year, $8.35 Million, is Toronto best Offseason acquisition allowing them so very many options. Ben Revere is seen as a quality lead-off hitter who can play center. Drew is seen as someone who can't handle pressure. I think he must be resigned.

Gavin Floyd (33), 1 year, $1.0 Million, was a huge signing for the Jays, costing so little. Gavin is seen as spending too much time on the D.L.; not enough talent left; a typical early February signing. If he can Start, even for a short time; or be a quality Reliever, it's almost free.

I can see the Blue Jay moves being undervalued outside, they didn't sign David Price.

Taking a page out of Dewey's book:

re-sign (v.): to sign (a document, etc) again

resign (v.): to give up (a job or position) in a formal or official way

Examples:

"The Toronto Blue Jays re-signed Marco Estrada to a $26-million, two-year contract ahead of Friday’s qualifying offer deadline, plugging one of the holes in their starting rotation." (Sportsnet, 13 November 2015)

"Anthopoulos was offered an extension by new club president Mark Shapiro but decided to resign instead." (CBS Sports, 29 October 2015)

In case anyone was wondering.

Don't wonder about that stuff any more. Mostly try to remember to take my meds, check my email and take a morning walk or use the treadmill when the weather is bad. Retirement has it's benefits and grammar is not high on my list :)
Thanks anyway.

grammar is not high on my list :)

The point is not the grammar
It's the feeling that is certainly in my heart ...
but not in hers

I wonder if Dewey knows about the greatest song of all time that features a character obsessed with the spelling and grammar mistakes of his annoyed girlfriend ...

And also the line:

I usually notice all the little things,
One time I was proud of it
She says it's annoying

and

She said 'you is funny'
I said "you are funny"
She said thank-you
And I said never mind ...

and

I told her affection has two fs
especially when you're dealing with me.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkN_qkN5JLQ

A million doesn't get as much a it used to.

So let me get this straight:

Free: bobblehead giveaways

Almost free: Roberto Hernandez

I'll pay with debit: Jesse Chavez

Expensive: Josh Donaldson

Don't even think about it: David Price

Frankly, if there are improvement, please say so. I do not find elaborating a few words funny.

FWIW, the Jays signed Floyd and Hernandez to contracts of similar dollar values. Do the signings mean that both players are of similar value to the team ?

LOL good one greenfrog :)

...Do the signings mean that both players are of similar value to the team?

I hope not.
Gavin Floyd (33) signed a $1.0 Million MLB contract, whereby he could earn another $1.0 Million in incentives. He had Tommy John, then other injuries that can subsequently occur after. He's throwing extremely well with good stuff and might be used to Start or needed to Relieve. He's on the Team unless injured.
Roberto Hernandez (35) signed a MiLB contract with Spring Training invite. He just got old, and then his stuff started fading. He's got to earn a spot (extremely unlikely) on the Team, by being better than his competition (thus earning $1.25 Million); opt out and try to find another job; or, work cheap in AAA.

I told her affection has two fs
especially when you're dealing with me.

Love that line!

The title of this song kind of sums up the offseason for a lot of us, I'm afraid.

"which speaks to my biggest problem with you and shapiro's position - you guys simply don't appreciate how good and rare a collection of talent we have actually is, and as such don't feel any urgency to capitalize on it now, and are more worried about what the team will look like 5yrs from now. which imo is crazy."


Missed this post earlier. The issue with the core of the team is age, not skill. After 2016, the combination of Bautista, Edwin, Martin, Tulo, and Donaldson will be 36, 34, 34, 32, and 31 respectively. It is reasonable to expect that the longer they hold on to this core, the less value the core will provide for way more money than they are currently being paid. With Tulo already locked in at 5/100, and Martin for 4/75, it leaves a lot less wiggle room to extend the rest of them for market value if the payroll remains in the same general area. They would be playing with fire if they extended everyone.

The Jays are not going to replace Bautista with another generational power hitting talent. So I get your point; it will take a long time to see another Bautista type of player in Toronto. The issue is, you are looking at Bautista from age 29-35, while the Jays will be paying for Bautista from ages 36-39 if they extend him. So that's what management has to figure out. Does Bautista decline in his late-30's like most power hitters do? If so, what value do you place on his declining years? Can you recoup the value of that contract over those years? And so on. Same deal with Encarnacion.

Donaldson is the trickier one. He will be 32 when he's a FA, he will almost surely go to the highest bidder, and he'll be in the free agent class that every team is salivating over (Harper, Machado, Fernandez, Harvey, Keuchel, McCutchen, etc, etc). Maybe the level of demand makes Donaldson more signable, since teams may go towards the younger stars in that FA class. Then again, do the Jays want to commit to a 7-year deal which covers ages 32-38? Maybe 3 + an opt-out might be the best route there, otherwise we are right back into the Bautista debate. The Jays should be in no hurry to re-sign Donaldson beyond his arb years. Three years is plenty of time to see what happens to him as both an offensive and defensive player. Don't get me wrong, I'd be fine if they signed him long-term, but there's no urgency to do it now.

But to the bigger point, I've been saying for years, the only way to win with Rogers as owners is to build internally. Ricciardi couldn't do it. AA tried for a few years and then went the complete opposite direction (failed 2 years, succeeded 1). The best way to avoid having to deal with corporate owners is to not need them in order to succeed. If Shapiro/Atkins can build a young sustainable group that doesn't require huge payroll boosts unless circumstances call for it, then it makes them a lot less of an issue. The Jays have young talent (Stroman, Travis, Pillar, Hutchison, Sanchez, Osuna, etc). However, at some point, the young talent will have to be the stars, and the vets will have to supplement them. Right now, it's the other way around.

"The issue with the core of the team is age, not skil"

which makes it all the more important that we focus on 2016-18, and not prioritize 2019 payroll flexibility.

"But to the bigger point, I've been saying for years, the only way to win with Rogers as owners is to build internally. "

but that is obviously false.

we were good enough to win last year. we are good enough to win this year. and could likely be good enough to win for a couple more years after that, if we make the right moves.

We could build internally for the next 2 decades, even do it with good management, and still easily never field a team as good as this one. easily. in fact the safe bet would be exactly that.

You are wrong about your most fundamental premise.

Good enough to win in 2016, yes.

But as outlined many times already, the chances of keeping that going in 2017-beyond is much smaller. Bautista and Encarnacion made $24M combined in 2015 and will make the same in 2016. Martin made $7M in 2015 and will make $15M in 2016. Donaldson made $4.3M in 2015 and will make $11.65M in 2016. After 2016, that all changes.

Bautista and Encarnacion will likely require around $20M per each. Martin goes up to $20M AAV in each of the following three seasons. Donaldson goes up to $17M in 2017 and well over $20M in 2018 in his final year of arbitration. Tulo makes $20M a year for the next five years.

Then after 2018, you have to deal with Donaldson's free agency, where you might be looking at $30M AAV for a 32-year old to join 38-year old Bautista making $20M+, 36-year old Encarnacion making $20M+, 36-year old Martin making $20M, and 34-year old Tulowitzki making $20M.

Do you not see the problem with your logic here? AA built a team capable of winning in 2015 and 2016. After that, it will require some work. That's not a sustainable roster. It might turn into one if Shapiro/Atkins make some good moves post-2016, but it certainly won't be one using the formula you seem to be suggesting (re-signing everyone).

Good enough in 2015 and 2016.

2 free agents after 2016 means we're toast? nope. some smart GMing and payroll commitment gives us another year or two of top tier contention after that.

that would be 3-4yr window of elite contention - something we've never had in the history of the franchise.

and you're worried about 2019 payroll flexibility.

If payroll wasn't an issue, then you'd have an argument, even though I don't think these players will age as well as you think they will. However, with a $140M payroll in 2016, and god knows what it drops to next season if the dollar doesn't rebound, it becomes a lot harder to pull that off.

Teams are going younger. Cameron made an interesting point a little while ago saying that in the post-PED era, players are simply not aging as well as they used to. That doesn't mean Bautista/Edwin will rapidly fall off, but it means you can't pay them in their mid-30's and expect performance from their prime. It's not realistic. Not to mention it will cost a lot more and possibly prevent the team from being able to fill other holes to compensate for any decline from those guys.

If Bautista and EE were willing to sign two year extensions, then I'd be OK with that. Unfortunately, they'll probably want at least four year extensions, and that's a dangerous area.

"that would be 3-4yr window of elite contention - something we've never had in the history of the franchise."

It's like 1985-1993 never happened!

no way does EE command $20 million / per - he's DH only at this point. David Ortiz is earning $16 million for the Sox and has more value to them as a postseason hero than EE does... other comps to me would be nelson Cruz - 4 years, $58 million - or Victor Martinez even - 4 years, $68 million.

DHs are relatively cheap - Kendrys Morales is signed for 2 years, $17 million.

"....god knows what it drops to next season if the dollar doesn't rebound..."

Wow, we're already making excuses for a possible payroll reduction next season?  I'd rather that the fans put pressure on the owners to increase the payroll, rather than generously imagining reasons why the payroll could drop. 

Yes, I admit that a lower payroll could happen, and I admit that the dollar exchange rate could be a factor (unless there is good hedging happening).  But why make it easy for Rogers to cut?  Why give them more excuses?  Why not assume, as many of us do, that a good owner would find ways to invest in the future by increasing the payroll?

The answer to your question, China fan, is that the media has already given Rogers a free pass on not spending anything this offseason, so it's natural for a fan to already start thinking about a reduction, barring another magical run. If this isn't the perfect opportunity to raise payroll to try and win a championship, the time will never come under a Rogers ownership.

I don't think it's absurd to give Rogers and the new FO a season to see if we remain a competitive, high-drawing team, and they then pony up, as Shapiro has implied. 

but if the dollar recovers and we play/draw well again with no spending spike at the end of this season, we've got certifiably cheap ownership on our hands.  Hopefully the media is of this mindset too ...

Field of Dreams motto: "If you build it, he will come."

Rogers motto: "If fans and viewers come, we will build it, within parameters appropriate for a mid-market team with revenues in Canadian dollars."

If the Jays start 2016 how they left off last season and maintain high ratings and attendance throughout the season and into a post-season berth, then that's really when we'll see how dedicated Rogers is. Maybe in that scenario, ownership will be more likely to spend more. In the mean time, I think any number of reasons could lead to a payroll stagnation or decline, whether it be the dollar or just wanting to spend less.

I don't think it's making excuses as much as it is being realistic. Rogers seems to increase payroll only when the team finishes poorly and they expect decline in revenue the following year. They announced a $210M over 3 year payroll spike after the 2004 season when they finished with 67 wins, and then a payroll spike after the 2012 season when they finished with 73 wins. While payroll stagnates after their first playoff appearance in 20+ years. Again, it could be because of the dollar, or any number of reasons, but until they prove otherwise, we can't assume the payroll will get much higher than it is now. Personally, I think $140M is more than enough to win in general, but it won't be enough if the team wants to keep this core together beyond 2016.

Thanks to all of you for the thoughtful and witty responses to my question, which I originally thought was somewhat rhetorical...