DJ Davis is weird for me.

His year this year was absolute legit and deserving of a top 10 spot in many organizations, especially giving his non-hit tools.

I can't yet get past his crazy K rates and poor lines from previous years....but then again now I wonder how much my previous take on that was due to fangraphs (and other sources) listing his age as 2 baseball yrs older than he actually is?

Davis was only 17 when drafted, last year was his age 20 season.

And its probably encouraging news that all of alford greene and guerrero are listed ahead of urena and reid-foley, both of whom made the top 10 last year and had good to very good years this year. That would suggest they really like alford greene and guerrero as opposed to just ranking them there for lack of better options.

5 on the list should get to AA ball this year.

Alford, Greene,Urena, Reid Foley and Tellez. They all offer some aspect of elite talent, ie a major tool.

I am optimistic that some will shine enough to be helpful in 2017.

I'm a little surprised to see Guerrero ranked so highly - has he played any organized ball since he signed?

To me, at this point in their "hype" I see two that I think could be MVP type guys (assuming - of course - that 9,000 things all line up and that time, injuries and the devil don't destroy my fragile illusions):

Vlad and Alford.

Vlad may be a once in a generation pure hitter. While we are trying him at 3rd - I see his thick lower body and only OK(ish) arm putting him at 1st eventually. However, his stick may well have magic in it. Serious, wonderful, magic! (I SO HOPE!). While Vlad has two tools (hitting and hitting for POWER) that may be off the charts (to me) Alford will end up (when he's played enough reps at baseball) having 5 (at least) + tools. Picture Dawson (when he had two legs) or a Trout or a Bautista. A guy for all aspects of the game, a near once in a generation all-rounder. I KNOW there is SO MUCH between these guys now and their "possibilities," I realize it is seriously early to have so much hope for them - BUT - these are two of the tastiest talents that we've had offensively in my thousands of years following the Jays.

Of the arms - I really like Maese. I REALLY like him. Greene has blossomed this past year - IF this is the year he proves last year was a big step in his development that he can build on this year - then Greene is a serious mover! Reid-Foley SO looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. A big, strong stud. I hold high hopes - 2016 should be the year he really moves his move! Harris has me confused. I really WANT to love him - but - 2016 HAS to be the year it clicks. Please, let it be.

Of the rest: Urena MAY be a SS with + power (for the position) - but - he's still a long way off. Tellez is a feel good story. We'll know more about his real projection after the 16 season. I really like the guy and hope he can stick with the hit and power tools. So much of Pentecost's projection is if he can stay at catcher. I doubt his body will let him, pity. At first...who knows? He could be be a Molitor type (ya, I seriously doubt it too). D.J. Davis? I see a mini-me-Alford only without the magic.

For a team that has traded so much of tomorrow for today - I'm still impressed with this top 10.

I think the rankings reflect the lack of competition. Alford's a guy you want in your system, but I don't think he's many teams' #1. Greene as a #2 is very weak. The reason Guerrero is at #3, is there isn't anyone else on the list to put there. Urena had an abysmal walk rate 16/536 PA's. Davis was repeating Lansing. Harris got lit up in Vancouver. I don't think Alex left the system quite as badly off as he found it, but it's not a very good system.

I would have Tellez considerably higher on my list.  He's a year and a half younger than Harris, and has already succeeded in full-season A ball whereas Harris has struggled in short-season.  BA places a lot of weight on draft position.

I really like Maese. I REALLY like him.

I have to say ML that I hadn't really noticed him until I read your post and looked him up. Great whip, era etc. Any idea why his strikeouts are not higher (19 in 35 IP)?

Alford's a 5 tooler with elite production for age and level, surface and underlying stats. I think he'd be in the running for #1 in many if not most seasons.

Greene just blew away Sanchez' and Norris' 20yr old performances, matching up most closely with Syndergaard's.

I think its a bit early to be too down on Harris - he was considered a front half of the first round talent.  He did suck in his first go at pro ball, but lots of guys do.  He'd be top five in lots of orgs.  MLB has him at #1, 80th overall.  Not the best source, but we are still waiting on some of the better ones.  Sickels will be doing the Jays soon, I'm key to see what he thinks of Harris and the org in general.

BA is pretty tools-focused, rather than performance-based, and since some of our prospects aren't as polished, I could see them actually viewing our top 10 relatively well, although I don't think their org rankings come out till 2016.

I don't think too highly of Junior Lake, but I'm glad the team is getting the depth together.  Hopefully we get some intriguing bullpen options.

I like Sanchez's 20-year old performance better than Greene's.

Better era, more strikeouts, less hits.

Greene did make it to AA which is encouraging. He didn't do great in AA but hopefully the experience will make him better prepared for the upcoming season.

Jeff Passan has a nice story on Blake McFarland.

Thanks CBDC, that's a great read.  Glad to know (with Norris in Detroit) that we have another unique soul in the minors to pull for ...  I love the longshot who makes it big and his art is, well, likely better than Miguel Bautista's poetry ... 

Pubster.  Not “less hits”, man;  “fewer hits”!  (Or if you simply must get “less” in there, you could say “a lesser number of hits”, and sound even more ridiculous than is already the case.)  How many times must I remind you people?  Pay attention.  Please.

While I’m warmed up, has anyone else wondered what happened to “many” or “several”?  These words seem to have been displaced by “multiple”.   This is absolutely de riguer these days.  Why?  What’s so great about “multiple” anyway?   And don’t forget to reach out going forward.  You, too, can sound like Mark Shapiro --  if you aren’t more careful.

Thanks Dewey for the lessons.

Blake Mc Farland could be the next T Henke. Henke made it at 27 or 28 after a long Minor league career.

Always glad to be of service, bpoz. :)

Area Professor Discovers Grammar Mistake on Internet  (just being saucy.)

Multiple grammar mistakes!

Hope you don't think fewer of me for pointing that out.

Sorry, Dewey. I also act like this at home, which causes my wife to feel like whacking me over the head possibly several, but probably many times.

Hope you don't think fewer of me for pointing that out.

Hahaha, nice.

Hypo, anyone with your moniker gets a pass -- and I don’t think more less of you for it at all.  (But I do feel sympathy for your long-suffering wife.)  bpoz is a good guy; and so is the saucy Mr carrot (we’ve met before).  As for multiple ninnies on here, get off the lawn;  you’re bringing down real estate values.

And let us hope that Eddie Rogers’s and Guy Laurence’s stocking are stuffed with lumps of dusty coal.   Aside from that,  seasonal greetings and such to all loyal bauxites.  It's festivus, the solstice.  It gets lighter soon!

The BA write-up has no opinion as to where the Jays system ranks overall, that might come out of this afternoons chat.

In the BA chat, Manuel suggests it falls probably in the 20-22 range.

Thanks for the link to the BA chat, lots of good info.  Manuel echos what a lot of us have been saying about the top guys still being interesting, but the depth being lacking:

"Alford is an easy top 100 guy, and more like a Top 50 guy … Conner Greene is a top 100 guy for me, easily. Vlad Jr. will probably be toward the back of my top 100 though I know that’s rich for some. I also could see Richard Urena & Sean-Reid Foley in there. Top of the system, to me, is still pretty good. Just the depth has been hollowed out."  He also suggests that players will be promoted more slowly under the new regime, and notes that this may benefit a guy like Sean Reid-Foley specifically. 

other interesting comments - vladdy at 80 raw power, Tellez at 70.  Hansel Rodriguez "chance for a true plus fastball if not better", and "my deep sleeper is Yennsy Diaz, rhp".

The Jays farm system isn't in bad shape considering the kinds of moves it apparently takes to assemble a championship-calibre roster in Toronto (which is what Anthopoulos managed to pull off, if only for one season, maybe two).

Perhaps Shapiro and Atkins can find an alternative way to win north of the border (let's be generous and call them the tortoise to Alex's hare).

Keith Law had Alford at #39 (right behind Aaron Nola) in his midseason prospect rankings.

I guess this would suggest he's probably Top 10 for evaluators who DON'T hate the Blue Jays. :)

I'm pretty sure Shapiro is contemplating an outfield of Pompey/Pillar/Alford (or Pillar/Pompey/Alford) for 2017 (maybe 2018 for Alford). I just don't see him offering Bautista a big contract for his decline (2-4 WAR per year) years.

Thanks for the McFarland link.

I was just thinking lately that we only see fireballers, that nobody throws a good split finger fastball like, say, Mel Rojas used to.

" It gets lighter soon. "

Isn't that an ambiguous term ? It could mean that something will weigh less, er,not as much. There will be more, uh, I mean " an increase in daylight hours " might be a better phrase.

( All said tongue in cheek. Merry Christmas, Dewey ! )

That smells more like hyperbole than hypobole.

...regarding the Law comment.

Think I had Urena/Reid-Foley ahead of Vlad in my ranking. And Hollon at 6 ahead of Tellez, Pentacost, Robson and Harris.

My Law remark was very much hyperbole, ayj, except for Law having Alford #39 - that is fact.

In case you missed it, there was a matter-of-fact comment a short time ago that Law traditionally downgrades our prospects.

It's fun to evaluating the top ten for Trade Potential or playability.

Anthony Alford is still about a year or two behind his peers due to time spent on Football. I see him as making the Team in September 2017 at the earliest.
Connor Greene went from 59.1 IP in 2014 to 132.1 IP in 2015. If he stays healthy, I don't see him up here much before mid-Season 2017.
Vladimir Guerrero has played anything significant in Baseball yet. Until he does, he shouldn't be ranked.
Richard Urena is amazing., but I don't see him here before Spring 2018. He just needs more ABs.
Sean Reid-Foley needs better control. Earliest arrival up here would be mid-2018, if all goes well.
Jon Harris hasn't pitched enough for a read on him. Best case scenario has him arriving late 2018.
Rowdy Tellez is a year away from deciding how really good he is. I could see him up here September 2017.
Max Pentecost is a year away from being a wasted pick. Why? He has trouble staying healthy as a Catcher and it's not known if the bat plays well enough anywhere else. He might not even be close when Russell Martin's done.
Justin Maese pitched a sparkling 35.2 innings with the Gulf Coast Jays. It's still too soon for any judgement on him, despite being very good, very early.
D.J. Davis Jr. is figuring it out finally. He could be ready anytime from Spring to September 2018.

Does anyone have a better estimate of how soon these Players are useful?

At his point I don't see how anyone can still have Pentacost in their top 10. The health issue is real.
Where does he rank as a 2B/OF utility guy? Or maybe as a backup catcher than only play 50 games a year?

Unless he's traded soon, I wouldn't be surprised if they start diversifying his fielding time.

By mid March we should have an idea of who is playing where.
I hope Derrick Chung can stay healthy.

good info from that Manuel chat.

interesting that we had 4 top 100 guys last year and this year after "gutting the system" manuel still sees 3 potential top 100 guys (and pompey would have been a 4th if he had 3 fewer mlb at bats). not bad.

in general what manuel says rings bang on true to me. The top of the system is pretty solid (and could move quickly to above average if harris and pentecost perform like they were expected to), with the depth looking pretty weak. But like i mentioned last time we discussed this, not only do we have imo a whole bunch of arms in rookie ball who put up legit impressive numbers with good stuff, but AA's history with finding these kinds of arms makes me pretty confident they'll end up looking like pretty darn good system depth by the end of the year, like the previous classes have.

"interesting that we had 4 top 100 guys last year and this year after "gutting the system" manuel still sees 3 potential top 100 guys (and pompey would have been a 4th if he had 3 fewer mlb at bats). not bad."

He also said the Jays system was 20-22 and that it's weak beyond the top 6-7. He also said Hoffman would have been #1 on the list. The system was gutted at the top and I don't see why anyone would even try to deny it. It was gutted for a legit reason (making a playoff run) but the Jays system is not very good right now.

".... I don't see why anyone would even try to deny it....."

Oh come on, you're expressing a personal opinion and trying to make it appear like the sacrosanct Word of God.  Please don't tell us that we cannot debate your opinion.  Many of us feel that the Jays did not "gut the system" -- at the top or anywhere.  In fact, the simplistic phrase "gut the system" (or "sell the farm") is a lazy shorthand for a sweeping generalization that lacks any nuance or complexity.  At least acknowledge that there is a legitimate debate about the extent of the losses after the 2015 trades.

Uglyone makes some excellent points: the Jays are likely to still have 3 of the top 100 prospects, and Pompey should still be considered a prospect, so the Jays really have 4 of the top 100.  (Most of Pompey's playing time has been in September and April -- he's still spent the vast majority of every season in the minors, and he's still just 23, so he should still be considered a prospect.)  To be ranked 20-22 of the 30 MLB teams is not great, but it's not terrible either.  If the Jays had truly "gutted the system", they would be ranked 30 of the 30 teams.  If they had "gutted the system at the top", they wouldn't have any top prospects remaining, but in reality they have Alford, Pompey, Greene, Guerrero, Urena, Reid-Foley and others.  The Jays still have plenty of good prospects, along with plenty of good young players on the MLB roster. 

The BA prospect analyst Manuel says this about the Jays:  "Top of the system, to me, is still pretty good."  Some fans might disagree with this, and we should welcome the debate, but fans shouldn't try to shout down anyone who happens to agree with a BA analyst who actually specializes in this subject.

One of the interesting things about the current ranking is the player who has emerged as #1. Alford was an unorthodox pick, as he was viewed as someone who had all but committed to a football career. Keith Law, for example, thought the pick was a waste of money. Also, it apparently took some serious cajoling by Anthopoulos during the ensuing months and years to persuade him to choose baseball as a full-time profession.

I think it's safe to say that Shapiro would never have selected Alford, who was a classic creative/entrepreneurial pick by Alex. I also wonder whether he would have chosen Greene when he was available, and whether he would have invested in the big-ticket Latin American item of Guerrero Jr. And would he have chosen Stroman when he fell to the Jays in the draft?

It will be interesting to see how Shapiro goes about acquiring young talent, and whether Lacava and other front office holdovers will help him see some opportunities he might otherwise have missed. It will be tough, but not impossible, to match Anthopoulos's record in the area of talent acquisition.

"interesting that we had 4 top 100 guys last year and this year after "gutting the system" manuel still sees 3 potential top 100 guys (and pompey would have been a 4th if he had 3 fewer mlb at bats). not bad."


Just because the Jays have a few good prospects remaining (all in A-ball and one young enough to play a decoy on To Catch a Predator), it doesn't mean the system wasn't sacrificed for MLB gain. I'm honestly baffled at how anyone can look at the prospect capital traded from 2013-15 and still cling to the notion that the system wasn't gutted. It ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball by most accounts and will require work to fix. Obviously internal improvement can bump it up, but quality + quantity both need to improve, and it will over time, especially since this regime has made it a priority to develop the talent rather than trade it away.

As far as the rankings, I'm a big Alford fan. In his first full pro season he showed incredible progression. He can clearly hit, draw walks, steal bases, and I'm assuming his defense grades out well. He still has to make the A to AA jump though, and we'll see how that goes.

"Oh come on, you're expressing a personal opinion and trying to make it appear like the sacrosanct Word of God. "
No, I am saying what every single analyst will say. The Jays system is much weaker this season in a large part due to trading away a lot of prospects. You quote the BA chat as backing you up with "Top of the system, to me, is still pretty good." but leave out the next line "Just the depth has been hollowed out.". Does hollowed out lack nuance as well? You are using a quote that shows exactly the opposite of what you are trying to say. If you read the chat, he also use the phrase " trade-depleted system."...Is that lazy shorthand?

I don't see the point in denying the obvious. The Jays had lots of prospects. They traded a lot of them away. They have a lot fewer prospects and a worse system than they did a year ago. They still have some prospects but they are not as good or as many or as ready as they were last year. Why would anyone try to deny this is beyond me. The trades made sense in the context of going for it, but they did come with a cost. Are we going to pretend that trading away half your top prospects isn't going to have a large effect on your system?

"He also said the Jays system was 20-22 and that it's weak beyond the top 6-7. He also said Hoffman would have been #1 on the list. The system was gutted at the top and I don't see why anyone would even try to deny it. It was gutted for a legit reason (making a playoff run) but the Jays system is not very good right now."

I don't want you cleaning my fish.

sorry, glevin, but a slightly below average 20th ranked system (down from 10th last year) with 3 top 100 prospects (down from 4 last year), after we graduated 6 rookies this season, including two more who could still easily have been top 100 prospects this year (one who is the youngest player in mlb and another who went 3ab over rookie limits), just isn't the gutted farm that some want to believe it is.

and if the rookie league arms do this year what they've done the last few years, even the questionable system depth won't look very hollowed out.

Some are making it out to be as weak as it was at the end of JPR's run (0 top 100 prospects pre-Halladay trade), which it clearly isn't. It isn't as strong as post-Gillick (Green, A-Gone both top 10, Jose Silva, Shannon Stewart, Angel Martinez, Chris Carpenter, plus recent grads like Delgado) or post-Ash (Phelps, Werth, Gross, Hudson, McGowan).

Checking BA rankings for top 100, you get an average of 3.3 per year for AA, 2.9 for JPR, 3.9 for Ash and 5.5 for Gillick (1990-1995). I counted the first year for each new GM as belonging to the previous GM. Peak of 5 for AA (2015), 6 for JPR (2004), 5 for Ash (2002, 1997), and 6 for Gillick (91/92, 94/95 - amazing given how the Jays were on edge of WS those years if not winning it).

Looking at those numbers if anyone doubts why Gillick is in the HOF that should tell you - he didn't just contend for a decade+ he also kept the farm strong.

we traded a veritable s-load of prospects. gutting implies nothing left. not true.

I think we can all agree, without getting overheated and invoking deities and fish, that:

- the Jays farm system has been significantly depleted twice in recent years: prior to the 2013 season and again prior to (and during) the 2015 season

- there are still some good prospects in the system

- there currently isn't a lot of depth below the top tier of prospects

Thanks for the tip Dewey!

You know things are serious when fish and God are mentioned. Fish in particular.

I'm Pisces so I'm particularly interested.

I think the words are causing the differences of opinion regarding the trading of prospects.

The results were pleasing.Playoffs. We still have good prospects left.

Within 3 years or 10 years we will know the real cost in lost players. So far Syndagarrd seems like a painful loss. Alvarez IMO has produced more than Noah S due to a longer ML career to date. In 3 years we will know more.

I do not know how many and who are the studs in our system. If the system produced any, I hope we kept them.

Boston got J Varitek and D Lowe for H Slocumb I believe. Both Boston acquisitions did very well and for a long time.

gutting implies nothing left. not true.

Gutting has a bunch of different shades of meaning.  It can mean literally removing the interior of something while leaving the exterior functioning, as in "fire gutted the building" or "he gutted and boned the fish and they all enjoyed the tasty fillets".  Or it can mean to remove the essential elements of as in "the editor gutted the article with his cuts". 

The sub-text of all these discussions seems to be "Anthopoulos wasn't all that great", or "Shapiro is a bum".  Isn't that debate a little tired now, and frankly not in keeping with the season?  Isn't this a time of holiday wish lists, eggnog and such?

No question to this point Syn is the big loss and we all feared it at the time. At this point Jeff Hoffman looks like the biggest risk to have traded, followed by Norris and Boyd. Tons of strikeout pitchers traded, many with control issues from what I can tell. Someone will emerge from that group and be successful in the majors but who can say for sure which one.

Didn't everybody hate the Dickey trade at the time?

I don't mind if Hoffman becomes an all star because I like Tulo.

Nope.  Gerry posted a thumbs up/thumbs down thread on the Dickey trade at the time.  Gerry, Robert Dudek and I were the only ones giving thumbs down.  Most people were in favour either wholly or equivocally.

actually, john, hoffman isn't much of a strikeout pitcher. wasn't in college and not in the pros yet either.

his 22yr old season coming back from injury is pretty similar to what drabek did coming back from injury at age 21.

I'm actually pretty confident that this time around we kept the syndergaards and traded the Drabeks.

"Within 3 years or 10 years we will know the real cost in lost players. So far Syndagarrd seems like a painful loss. Alvarez IMO has produced more than Noah S due to a longer ML career to date. In 3 years we will know more."


I've posted the $/WAR of the 2013 trades before. We already know how those trades turned out. They were awful for the Jays. If anything, waiting another 3 years will make the deals more lopsided than it already is.

Without going too in-depth into it, just based on the prospects traded in those two deals that have reached the Majors, the grouping of Syndergaard, d'Arnaud, Alvarez, DeSclafani, Hechavarria, Marisnick, Nicolino, and Gomes have combined to produce a 202.9 $/WAR from 2013-15. While the grouping of Dickey, Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Bonifacio, and Rogers produced a 145 $/WAR. The group of prospects the Jays gave up combined to make around $15M combined from 2013-15 (rough estimates of nm salaries), while the Jays paid their group $146.7M.

It's too early to look at the 2015 trades. Price produced a 2.7 WAR in 11 starts, which was amazing, but ultimately it was 11 starts vs. 12 years of Norris and Boyd. The lost value will come in subsequent seasons, just how much will depend on how the prospects do. If Tulo has a few elite seasons left in him, then he should be worth what he has remaining on his deal (especially with the way the market is now), and Hoffman/Castro have a tough hill to climb in that altitude.

The reason why people emphasize AA's trading of prospects is because his regime was pretty darn good at drafting. It sucks to see a team strength being utilized more for short-term gain rather than long-term sustainable gain. That's why I'm hoping the scouting team stays in tact, because AA's drafting with Shapiro's philosophy might be a perfect match. AA's scouts can identify the talent while Shapiro's influence can better develop that talent.

I knew Greene was rising, but 2! Good for him.

I would like to see a couple more good arms in there, but the Jays are going to have offense coming up the ranks.

"Didn't everybody hate the Dickey trade at the time?"

Found the Dickey thread in the archives, and no, it seemed most were for it, amazingly.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20121217214116667

Since Trade:

Dickey 6.8bwar, 5.4fipwar/8.6ra9war
Syndergaard 2.1bwar, 3.1fipwar/2.4ra9war
D'Arnaud 1.6bwar, 3.4fwar

TOR: 6.8bwar, 7.0fwar
NYM: 3.7bwar, 6.2fwar

For the record, I remember thinking the Marlins trade was great at the time and was giddy that Rogers was finally investing heavily into the team, so I'm certainly not passing judgment on anyone who liked the Dickey trade. I just decided to learn from history, which is why I feel the way I do about the current team. That off-season really taught me the value of building from within, especially in this market.

It is worth noting that many rankings undervalue the rookie league / low A guys - fair enough - but they remain a part of the system, and I agree with Uglyone that those guys could really emerge as prospects this year - harder to project, but if correct, we are much more a middle of the pack system as we speak.  Guys like Rodriguez or Diaz could be next years Osuna and Castro.

Sure, every system has these guys, but we have a LOT of talent at these lower levels.

the only thing wrong with the dickey trade was we gave up the underrated pitching prospect instead of the overrated one. just a bad call. the trade idea was fine.

the Marlins trade was bad - largely because JJ was damaged goods - but even then we came out of it with the best players and didn't lose anyone we wouldn't want to be upgrading on anyways.

"Didn't everybody hate the Dickey trade at the time?"

Didn't then and I still think it was a necessary trade.

I understand in a vacuum, it was not a good trade. If AA would not would have made the Miami trade prior, the Dickey trade would have been a poor use of prospect capital. But once the decision was made to go for it, the Dickey trade was needed - there was no way the Jays could have gotten comparable value for the amount of money budgeted for the team.

Dickey, the CY Young winner, had been worth 13.0 bWAR his prior 3 seasons, with his best season the year of the trade.

To put that in context, David Price, who has been about as durable and consistently excellent as any pitcher in baseball has been worth 13.4 bWAR the past 3 seasons.

Price will earn $90 million over his next 3 yrs. Dickey cost the Jays $29 million his past 3 yrs.

I also loved the Miami trade at the time. Was very excited. But I hated the dickey trade.

Old guy who throws soft just didn't do it for me.

I liked the trade deadline moves from last year.

I don't think I would've minded darnaud and syndergaard for price 3 years ago.

I loved Josh Johnson tho lol

of all the guys we gave up then, the only guy who'd be starting for us now is noah.

It seems a bit odd to chastise Bauxites for being un-Christmas-y, and then immediately write a post congratulating oneself for having disapproved of the Dickey trade.

I remember that I actually didn't really like the Miami trade very much, or the Happ trade. I found it annoying that we were moving so many prospects for expensive veterans, rather than being able to just sign our own free agents. It's obviously exciting to see the team improving, and I did join and get excited about how the team looked on paper, but I wouldn't have actually made those moves at the time (given that I didn't like taking on the backloaded parts of the Reyes and Buerhle contracts, and hated Happ just in general as a player). After those moves, though, I did think the Dickey trade made a lot of sense. He fit our remaining budget perfectly, and had pitched amazingly for the previous three seasons.

It seems a bit odd to chastise Bauxites for being un-Christmas-y, and then immediately write a post congratulating oneself for having disapproved of the Dickey trade.

That wasn't the point; it was just to correct the record. FWIW, I also was one of the few Bauxites who gave the thumbs down to the Donaldson trade.  That time I was pretty spectacularly wrong- I got the arbitration award wrong and it got worse from there.  Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

For the Dickey trade I think my point still holds...

Basically what happened is he traded 3 prospects (2 great ones) to get a Cy Young winner at 1/2 market price or less. $10+ mil a year over the next 3 years is a lot of money to pocket, $5-6 mil if he signed a basic free agent starter (such as Sanchez) who might have needed more years.

There was the big bonus with Dickey. It was known he'd sign for 3 more years at a cheap price at the time (he offered to with the Mets but they refused). knuckleballers are always underrated so he knew he'd have trouble as a free agent, thus was willing to sign up right away. Greenfrog makes a great point back then about other options...
Anibal Sanchez for 5/$80M (79 ERA+ last year) or Edwin Jackson (good reliever last year after 2 nightmares as a starter) for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 4/$52M (Cubs paying him $13 mil to not pitch for them in 2016).

Also we had 'hot prospects' Drabek, Hutchison, Jenkins, Stilson, Sean Nolin, Deck McGuire, Casey Lawrence all of whom were thought to have a shot at being at least #4/5 starters.

Just saw where I referenced a study on players being success or failures based on where they were in prospect ranking. The odds of both d'Arnaud and Syndegaard succeeding was 7.4% vs a 23.4% shot at both flopping.

Another interesting tidbit - projections had the Jays payroll in 2015 at $143 million with the team as assembled at the point in time Dickey was acquired. If so then his contract would've been a very big selling point for AA.

Also funny prediction from Richard SS in that pre-2013 thread - "Baltimore will never ever finish better than Toronto again" FYI: I'm not going over some of my really bad predictions :)

"I loved Josh Johnson tho lol"

You weren't alone. There was a lot of Johnson love on this board for quite some time before the trade.

Johnson's injury history always concerned me; I was not a fan of the Miami deal. That said, some here thought JJ would be good/very good and some thought he would get injured. I can say with a fair amount of certainty no one thought he would be abysmally bad and then injured.

I was so high on Josh Johnson. I can't believe how wrong I was.

But I just KNEW Syndergaard and D'arnaud would be great.

I also knew Nestor Molina would be great too fwiw. I really liked that guy.

I'm okay with the Dickey trade. d'Arnaud has had trouble staying healthy, and started having trouble throwing out baserunners (the Royals stole four off him in the final game). Syndergaard has tremendous stuff, but gave up 19 home runs in 150 innings pitching in the Mets' pitcher-friendly environment; in the Rogers Centre, he would have given up even more long bombs.

The Jays have gotten three years out of Dickey. He's been just so-so instead of Cy-worthy, but he's thrown a lot of innings. It's all good.

"Edwin Jackson (good reliever last year after 2 nightmares as a starter) for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 4/$52M (Cubs paying him $13 mil to not pitch for them in 2016)."

Funny you should mention Jackson - I was just thinking about him earlier, since I was a big advocate for signing him before the Cubs did.

I've come to the conclusion that all we're pretty close to metaphorical blind squirrels when thumbing up or down on trades or signings.

I remember that I actually didn't really like the Miami trade very much, or the Happ trade.

The Happ trade has proven to be most surprising to me - I disliked it strongly at the time because of the pedigree of the prospects we sent - so many 1st rounders / comp picks.  But in retrospect, it sure looks like the Jays just drafted those players, got a good look at them and dealt them fast when they realized the upside wasn't there. 

Aside from Syndergaard, the mistakes in those trades were the players targetted, not the prospects given up.

Dickey, Buehrle, Reyes ended up as consistentish averagish mlb starters for us, while the Johnson and Bonifacio imploded. The guys we got just didn't do what they were supposed to do. The guys we gave up were all marginal, aside from Noah.

AA learned from his mistakes and proceeded to then target legit elite players like donaldson martin price tulo instead.

I agree UglyOne.

I kind of feel like AA was a prospect. He was a rookie GM who we developed for a few years, and then we let him go as soon as he became an all star.

Obviously not the same as a player, but he did grow as a GM right in front of us the way a lot of players do.

uo, thing is teams don't know how players will end up. Dickey was coming off a Cy Young season and had been consistently excellent for 3 yrs.

Josh Johnson was much like Tulo - pretty darned good when healthy, though both had more than a few stints of non-health. And both had seemingly started to decline a bit by the time they were acquired.

I'll maintain that especially in MLB, prospects and major league talent are part of the same continuum. Look at what Shelby Miller turned into.

What's important is the overall asset base, and in that regard, the previous regime has left the Jays in excellent shape. If Shatkins decides a fire-sale is in order during 2016 because the way the team is constructed is 'unsustainable' (i.e. consumes too much Rogers profit), then he's in a good position to convert current to future talent.

MLB doesn't suffer from the same constraints that cap leagues like the NHL do:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/weekend-takeaways-cap-making-trades-almost-impossible/

Granted, you don't want to employ a "sign 'em and trade 'em" strategy for too long, as the team would eventually be shunned ... but I think 2016 was a good opportunity to take such a chance.

Nope. Gerry posted a thumbs up/thumbs down thread on the Dickey trade at the time. Gerry, Robert Dudek and I were the only ones giving thumbs down. Most people were in favour either wholly or equivocally. Lugnut Fan looked pretty unequivocal in his dislike, while perhaps I was equivocal in some respects. Certainly didn't appear enthralled.

I agree Vulg that the overall asset base is the most important thing.

The Jays currently might have a gap in their minors but their MLB club and top 3-5 prospects more than make up for it in my opinion.

The Blue Jays release Prospects who underachieve badly all the time to make room for others. Teams can't keep everyone, but some of those numbers are truly awful. Trades do the same thing, they make room for others. Usually some of those traded don't become much, despite their trade value.

The hardest deal to make in Baseball is a trade, because no one values anything/anyone the same way as someone else does. What has the most value? Prospects with MLB experience; MLB Players; MLB-ready Prospects; LHPs; CFs and Shortstops. All are considered high value assets. Not many retain their value. The trick is to trade them while still of the best value.

Sean Nolin, Kendall Graveman, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd had huge trade value because they all pitched relatively decent at the MLB level. Anyone who thinks we lost value here is foolish, for what the Jays achieved was priceless and some of it unbelievable. A lot of the Jays' Shortstops weren't moved from that position because they have better trade value there. It's simple, if they are close or just relatively close.

One last thing on Josh Johnson -- a few posters here were not averse to resigning him after his one season here, probably if the contract was cheap enough. Luckily AA dodged that bullet as San Diego signed him for 8 million and got absolutely nothing to show for it. By the way, both of his parents are Canadian.

At the time of the Lawrie-Donaldson trade Billy Beane bet that he was getting value.

Does that mean Beane is foolish?

hypobole i kind of agree but imo dickey and johnson were attempts to clever our way into elite performamce instead of targetting the legit top talents in baseball. a 38yr old NL knuckleballer and a guy who had been injured and mediocre the previous 2 seasons were not the same as going for prime consistently elite guys like we did last year imo.

I think the words are causing the differences of opinion regarding the trading of prospects.

I believe at least 40% of arguments on this site are just about semantics, and not about the content of an argument.

So Dickey has had for at least 2.5 of his years here:
1) Really poor to just barely decent Starting Rotations;
2) Less than the best Offense;
3) Not a very consistent Defense;
4) Questionable Relief;
so he's tried harder to be better. As we know, that seldom works.

Robert Allen Dickey has made 101 regular season Starts for the Jays.
In 44 of his starts, he's given up 2 or fewer runs (not earned runs, just runs). That's Cy Young, Front-Line, Stud Ace territory.
In 28 of his starts, he's given up 3 or 4 runs. That's solid Mid-Rotation Starter stuff.
In 29 of his starts, he's given up 5 or more runs. That's basically 5th Starter territory.
I think he was underpaid. Was it a good trade? That up to you, but anyone that says no doesn't understand value.

How this year goes will be his most interesting one of all:
1) Good, but not great Starting Rotation;
2) One of, if not Baseball's very best Offenses;
3) One of Baseball's best Defenses:
4) Despite still a work in progress, very well set up so far;
so this could be one of his best years ever.

Thanks Richard SS. It is time for me to start becoming optimistic about the 2016 season. Your post was positive.

It is hard for me to go into ST and the season with a losing expectation. So I must convince myself that we we are one of the 7-10 best AL teams.

uo, Josh Johnson and Troy Tulowitzki are more similar than you make it seem.

Johnson had been healthy, but posted a mediocre 107 ERA+ prior to the trade.
The year before he spent much of the year injured, but the 60 innings he did pitch, he posted an elite 237 ERA+.

Tulo had been healthy, but posted a mediocre 100 wRC+ prior to the trade.
The year before he spent much of the year injured, but in the 71 games he did play, he posted an elite 170 wRC+.

I am interested to see how the front office plays Edwin's attempt to get out from under the QO albatross.

I think Edwin's agent expects to be in the same situation that Estrada found himself. Negotiating with one team that won't lose a pick - the Blue Jays, and signing back for less than he would have liked. I suspect that it is the QO scenario that lay behind the 'ultimatum'. It's possible that they'll get a deal done, but were I in the front officeI wouldn't fear calling the bluff on this one.

The hardest deal to make in Baseball is a trade, because no one values anything/anyone the same way as someone else does.

I think this is where the Jays will miss AA the most - his tenacity as a deal maker. As LaCava put it, he was in on everything. Cherington marveled openly about Alex's ability to pry Donaldson away from the A's, having inquired about the 3B himself.

Not everything may have worked out as well as he'd hoped (though I'd say his overall record was impressive in deals), but he seemed to be a shark when it came to pursuing his targets.

Shatkins certainly seem professional and smart, despite their risk aversion, and it's pretty much the existing braintrust that will be leaned on to evaluate talent (LaCava, Tinnish, Sheehan et. all), but I don't expect much in the way of 'magic' happening henceforth.

The Blue Jays lost a pick by signing Estrada.

Playing a contract year is a risk for Encarnation. He's not likely to outperform his expectation, but there is a real risk that he has a bad year or gets injured. Maybe it would be better for the Jays is EE is not under that added stress. I'm not worried about Bautista. I'm sure he's looking forward to it.

People are worried about the Pitching. Not very many people are happy with what has been done thus far. The Rotation isn't really finished so it could get better. The Bullpen is LaCava present task so it will be better. EVERTHING THAT'S HAPPENED IT THE PAST CREATED 2015 AND IT'S SUCCESS AND HAS BROUGHT US TO TODAY. So let's see what we have.

Marcus Stroman was not that much a success as a Reliever and was better as a Starter, Still overall he went: 11-6, 3.65, 130.2, 1.171 Whip, 3.96 SO/W with 2014's miserable second-half team. Then he pitched September and October with an amazing team and look at his success. I've got a very good idea now of how dominant he's going to be next year (Cy Young candidate?).

Marco Estrada was a very good Reliever who was moved into the Rotation in late April. He made what I'd call 28 Starts, 13 when the Jays were very good. He made 3 Starts of 5 or more runs, none while the team was good. He made 9 Starts of 3-4 runs, 3 when the team was good. He made 16 starts of 2 or fewer runs, 10 when the team was good. It's hard to say, but he could be the #2 Starter on merit.

During his career, James Anthony Happ has never had a team as good as the Jays are now. Other of his teams have been good, just not this good. While in Pittsburgh, he's made repeatable changes in his delivery, what he throws, where he throws, how he throws and when he throws (well maybe not that much). He pitched, during this time, as good as Kershaw did, so something should carry though.

For pitching one big thing to keep in mind is the team defense and how much better it has become recently.

For 2014 vs 2016
CA: Martin vs Navarro
1B: Smoak vs Encarnacion
2B: Travis/Goins vs Kawasaki and a cast of 1000's
3B: Donaldson vs Lawrie
SS: Reyes vs Tulowitski
LF: Revere (or Pompey or Saunders) vs Melky Cabrera
CF: Rasmus vs Pillar
RF: Bautista

Now, tell me, is there a single position that has downgraded other than RF with Bautista being older? Given that I think it is reasonable to assume all the pitchers who had to deal with that 2014 defense will do better this year (Dickey, Stroman, Happ, Hutchison, Cecil, Loup, Sanchez, etc.) at least on balls in play.

For the remainder of the Offseason, I'd be shocked if the Jays make any significant trade or any significant signing. Mostly bargain basement, dumpster diving or barrel scraping (as in bottom of) should be all that's left for them unless something special they can afford falls in their lap.

John, your chart seems to be a little off, some positions are 2014 vs. 2016 and others are 2016 vs. 2014.

Rasmus/Pillar I flipped by accident, same with Reyes/Tulo
New - 2014

For 2014 vs 2016
CA: Martin vs Navarro
1B: Smoak vs Encarnacion
2B: Travis/Goins vs Kawasaki and a cast of 1000's
3B: Donaldson vs Lawrie
SS: Tulowitski vs Reyes
LF: Revere (or Pompey or Saunders) vs Melky Cabrera
CF: Pillar vs Rasmus
RF: Bautista

I find it interesting that while upgrading the offense AA also upgraded defense. Not an easy task. 1B, CF and maybe LF are the only spots I'd say went down in offense. Not easy to upgrade defense and offense at the same time. Tulo was about the only guy AA could've gotten to upgrade both at SS I think. Melky finished with a 97 OPS+ this year but 2014 was his 2nd best year ever with a 128 OPS+ so for comparison purposes that is what the 2016 crew would have to outhit.

Really, what is weak now is just 2B due to injuries and the unknown of what Travis' real level of talent is. 1B has Colobello if needed (or put EE back out there) should Smoak collapse.

I like Goins at 2B.

He had an OBP of .361 post all star break last year.

I wonder if he has really improved or if it was just a good stretch for him.

I wonder if he has really improved or if it was just a good stretch for him.

If I had to guess, both.

If anyone caught Paul Beeston on Prime Time Sports, they heard McCown on Payroll. He suggests $145.0 Million. That's in keeping with all their Offseason moves. It will be interesting what happens from this point on.

I strongly believe Edwin, Jose and R.A. will not be re-signed, unless attendance goes way up and the Jays get into at least the second round of the Postseason

Yeah I fully expect the Jays to lose all 3 next winter too.

Also free agents post 2016...
Michael Saunders, Jesse Chavez, Brett Cecil, Justin Smoak

Right now QO will likely only go to Bautista, EE, and Dickey with Dickey being the biggest risk to take it, followed by EE (DH's have a limited market), Chavez could end up getting one if we are lucky. Can't picture Smoak or Saunders or Cecil doing enough to justify a $15+ mil offer.

I think a big question is will any prospects climb fast enough in 2016 to make it easier for the Jays to say 'screw it' to any of those guys? Pompey and Alford could do that in the outfield (Alford would be a surprise, but I can imagine it). Don't see Tellez having that amazing a year as to make it easy to say bye bye to EE.

If Chavez does well enough to deserve a QO they'll probably sign him for 3 years to cancel that luck out.

I can't imagine Alford being ready to replace Bats, but Cola might be able to take over at DH. That's his natural position. Adding an impact left bat a first base would be the next logical step.

I expect Stroman to get a big extension. I hope Cecil gets resigned.

Unless Stroman's agent would take a well below market value deal I'd wait another year or two for him.

Isn't Marcus Stroman pre-arb next two years due to injuries? Start with $.75 MM, $1.5 MM, #3.0 MM, $6.0 MM, #12.0 MM. $18.0 MM?

Right now there is no reason to guarantee $18 mil in 6 years to Stroman. Don't forget Romero and Morrow - both looked great and got long term deals that were write offs almost immediately.

If the Jay scouts are really, really sure and Stroman will accept a low ball deal for 6+ years (5 guaranteed, 6-8 team options) then it'd be a good idea but right now he is far too early in his career to have this make much sense from either side.

OK John, that's reasonable. We should have a better idea of what he really is, by next off season.

John, you seemed to be quite focused on cases where such contracts didn't work out for the Blue Jays and not cases where the contracts have, or appear very likely to, provide significant savings to the team in the years at the end of the contract.

I'd be very interested in signing Stroman to a contract that aligns with what some of the other young pitchers have gotten after a couple of years of service time.

yeah i'd invest in stroman. lotsa faith in that kid.

yeah i'd invest in stroman. lotsa faith in that kid. Agreed.

If the budget is going to stay roughly where it is, I place my bet on Tulo and Bautista eventually being on the outs with Donaldson remaining the centerpiece that the club is willing to pay for, largely because he mixes offense + defense and he provides that offense from a premium position.

I think Tulo has a no-trade kicker in effect now, but if Travis proves to be healthy and as effective as he was prior to injury, moving him will become a priority for Shatkins with Goins / Travis providing controllable production up the middle for quite some time.

In the "Reality is more weird than art" department, a candidate leading a leadership race for a major American party said:
"The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."

I scoured my well-worn book of Chairman Mao's quotations to see if it might be true and sure enough, there it was- a seemingly innocuous saying between two famous ones:

1. Thrift should be the guiding principle in our government expenditure. It should be made clear to all government workers that corruption and waste are very great crimes. Our campaigns against corruption and waste have already achieved some results, but further efforts are required. Our system of accounting must be guided by the principle of saving every copper for the war effort, for the revolutionary cause and for our economic construction.

2. What kind of spirit is this that makes a foreigner selflessly adopt the cause of the Chinese people's liberation as his own? It is the spirit of internationalism, the spirit of communism, from which every Chinese Communist must learn.... We must unite with the proletariat of all the capitalist countries, with the proletariat of Japan, Britain, the United States, Germany, Italy and all other capitalist countries, before it is possible to overthrow imperialism, to liberate our nation and people, and to liberate the other nations and peoples of the world. This is our internationalism, the internationalism with which we oppose both narrow nationalism and narrow patriotism.

Yes, indeed.  The money quote from Chairman Mao:

1a. We will in the future need to adopt some of the methods of the capitalist countries.  We will pollute the skies as they do and cause a great heat everywhere.  As our proletariat are stronger and better able to breathe the foul air, we will bring down the weak capitalist economies.

Merry Christmas, Bauxites.

Did anyone take a look at who's not on the Blue Jays next year? It's an impressive list as Bautista, Dickey and Encarnacion are the headliners. Cecil, Chavez, Smoak, Saunders, Thole and Revere are set to join them. That's getting close to having $60.0 Million available in Salary Budget space. Cecil might be the only player the Jays resign, or that is needed to be resigned.

Needs are simple. Make a decision on Sanchez, he's either a Starter or Reliever which is fine because we need the other one. Colabello is a nice hitter and so-so defender, so they need a Big Bat for First Base, hopefully a LHB. Whatever they decide on with Pompey, they'll still need at least one other quality Outfielder. Anything less is just not good enough.

Too many people have already made up their minds on Tulowitzki, despite small sample size in Toronto. I think that shows poor judgement. Too many people think Goins is the future, despite small sample size. I think that also shows poor judgement. What's the rush? We have Tulowitzki, Goins (SS/2B), Travis (mid-May) and Barney as Middle Infielders. Throughout the upper levels of the system there's nothing but dust, and no one else that's trusted. The whole world is run on poor judgements made with inadequate information. Over the last twenty years, prices increases have greatly exceeded earnings, and that's good-decision making at work? And people want the Jays run this way?

Merry Christmas Bauxites!

A nice summary of an amazing season to kickstart the holiday goodwill:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/12/23/top-10-blue-jays-moments-of-2015.html

For Risk/Reward analysis you need to consider best and worst case situations. Right now with Stroman the Jays control his rights through 2020. He has just 157 2/3 IP in the majors plus 19 1/3 playoff innings. That isn't much. His K/9 was just 6.0 last year (in 27 IP). Again not a great sign. No rush here as the Jays pay him minimum ML wage in 2016 and then start the arbitration process most likely with him being a super-2.

Not to mention that the rules could all change between now and October as there is a new labour deal being negotiated this season. Depending what the Jays think the new deal will contain would decide if they go for it or not with him and others.

Of course you need to consider the best and worst case scenarios. And of course the odds of each scenario (as well as the 25% and 75% percentile outcome and other variable permeations) occurring.

It seems like you and I have a different assessment of how likely Stroman is to be a valuable pitcher in 2019 or 2020 and/or a different assessment of the risk/likelihood attached to something approximating $25 million in dead money, at a worst case scenario.

That's nothing to sneeze at, but if Stroman continues to pitch like an upper tier starter the club would gain substantial savings.

Just finished my Letter To Santa. I'm really looking forward to the Lamborghini (lime green - ya I know - but the wife had to agree too) - gonna have to make a big hole in the roof where the chimney is but - what the heck that car will be worth it! Fingers crossed, here's hoping I've finally made it off the Naughty List...

On baseball - I was wondering...is there a way we can have Osuna as the 2016 closer AND give him enough extra innings that he'll be stretched out enough to challenge for a starters roll in 17? How many innings would he have to get in 16? 100 - 125? Too much, too little? Anyone know any examples where the Jays - or some other team - has tried that with a young closer/starter?

One example might be Jimmy Key in 84 - he had 62 innings pitched in his first year as a 23 year old rookie closer with 10 saves and 212.2 innings in 85 as a 24 year old newly printed starter earning 14 wins and with only 6 losses. He seemed to survive - he only pitched 'till he was 37!

Happy Holidays all and may 2016 be your best year ever...

Here is how Marcus Stroman's BBRef age comps did from age 29 until the end of their careers. You'd think that a median outcome (Aaron Sele, say) was a bad one because he only generated 9 WAR over the rest of his career.  Not exactly.  At age 28, he threw 200+ innings with an ERA+ of 113 and was an All-Star.  He went on to throw 200+ innings from age 29 to 31 with an ERA+ of better than 100.  In other words, he'd be a $15 million per season guy in free agency.  Strangely, the guy who went nuts later on, Kevin Brown, would have had about the same value as Sele at age 29.  Paul Derringer is the one who would have delivered the most at the time. Even a pleyer who did not develop as one might have hoped (like Erik Hanson) delivered any value between ages 28-31 that an early long-term contract would not have worked out badly. 

Objectively, the chances of Stroman being at least a solid innings-eater at age 29-31 are probably a little more than 50-50.  I like him better than that, with the recovery from his injury providing some indication of the X factors that go into such an assessment. . 

Even a pleyer who did not develop as one might have hoped (like Erik Hanson) delivered any value between ages 28-31 that an early long-term contract would not have worked out badly. 

Let's try that sentence again. 

Even a player who did not develop as one might have hoped (like Erik Hanson) delivered enough value between ages 28-31 that an early long-term contract would not have worked out badly. 

I'd be very interested in signing Stroman to a contract that aligns with what some of the other young pitchers have gotten after a couple of years of service time.

There's not enough data on his health and performance. He's here for a long time with minimum risk. He could be really good for several year and not cost too much. Or he could be get injured or fall off a cliff and cost almost nothing. Where's the problem?

If I ran the Jays I'd probably call his agent and see if he was interested in doing a long term deal (5 years guaranteed plus 2 or 3 options) without giving dollars and see what they say. But wouldn't lock in more than $30 mil ($0.5, $2, $4, $8, $16, options at $18-20 each) saying the injury risk is too high to go further. If he does well next year then it would cost more but a big part of the risk would be taken away as he has yet to have a full ML season, heck his career doesn't even qualify for an ERA title.

As to Osuna and stretching out, I think the Jays should stretch Osuna and Sanchez out in the spring knowing it isn't hard to cut back once the season starts but much harder to stretch out if they aren't already. Then if one or both are in the pen try to do 2-3 inning outings early on, alternating who is the closer (ie: day one Osuna gets 8/9th, day 2 it is Sanchez, day 3 Cecil for 9th only with all others for 8th, day 4 Osuana, Day 5 Sanchez, etc.) to try to keep them stretched out and maximize innings in 2016 for each of them. Then in 2017 follow the same strategy.

Did anyone else notice Osuna looked like he was running out of gas late last season? He didn't seem to be pitching as free and easy as he usually is. And someone wants to increase his work load. Amazing what people think of.

There's not a "problem."

There's a chance for gaining a couple of years of additional team control and substantial savings several years from now at a trade-off of guaranteeing him some money he may not otherwise earn. If you wait to sign him until several years from now, the team will have a better idea of his performance and some better idea of his health, although any pitcher will still be an injury risk, but the extension will come at a significantly more expensive price. I think it's worth the risk if Stroman was interested.

Also, the team has the greatest opportunity to maximize savings or guaranteed years at this point precisely because Stroman's track record in the majors is so limited.

It's an extreme example, but imagine what the Jays may have been able to sign Josh Donaldson for before this year compared to what it would cost now.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all.

Stroman does not have the body type for a long pitching career. A contract with substantial saving is good for him only if he tanks early. 

Under contract and under team control are 2 different thing. One is always desirable, one sometimes is.
If you put him under contract you've lost all those years of team control.  Paying fair value for all-stars is not a problem. Those contracts only make sense if you include a year or two of free agency.

I suppose you can reach a middle ground with performance bonuses.

Halladay was a good deal, but Wells, Rios and Romero were terrible deals that prevented the team from fielding competitive rosters for several years. Why would they rush into that again?

Osuna had a bad September, but had an ERA of 2.16 and a WHIP of 0.48 in the playoffs.

So I don't know that he was running out of gas.

I wouldn't worry about Osuna short-term. I think people tend to look too much at when bad months happen. A bad September can mean something but often it is no different than having a bad May especially for a reliever when a mad month is actually only 10-15 innings.. Long-term I worry a lot because relievers age very quickly and very poorly. Fangraphs..."Their [relievers] skills begin to atrophy almost immediately upon their arrival in the big leagues, and the decline shows up across virtually every aspect of pitching. Strikeouts, walks, velocity, you name it."

I don't see any way Osuna isn't the closer this season. The Jays don't have the bullpen depth to lose him and don't want to spend money on getting established relievers but I hope it's his last season as a reliever.

Merry Christmas.

Halladay's first deal wasn't so good - Ash signed him after his first season in the majors which looked really bad $1.23 mil for 2000-2002 - year one was his 10.64 ERA season, the next 2 were very good but net was a 4.26 ERA/110 ERA+ (steroid era) and would've all been for ML minimum instead if Ash had held off. Not like he could've lost Halladay or had to pay a crazy sum even if he pitched in 2000/2001 like he would in 2002/2003.

Basically I don't see any benefit to signing kids unless you get a free agency year or two taken away for bargain rates as the team has the option of cutting a guy lose for only that seasons pay until they sign a long term deal and we all know pitchers can and do get hurt.

Stroman is 5'8" 180 lbs. Another guy thought by many to not have a body type for a long career was Pedro Martinez 5'11" 170 lbs. and he only had 18 seasons, 219 wins, 3 Cy's and is in the HOF. Body type doesn't scare me, especially early in a players career. Violent arm action or previous injuries worry me far more than body type. It is rare you get a Halladay with perfect mechanics and the ideal body type (Clemens and Nolan Ryan land in that category too) those are HOF types (hopefully Syndergaard isn't one of those but boy does he appear that way right now).

Body type doesn't scare me, especially early in a players career.

That's nice but we've just been through a rash of TJ with young pitchers: Osuna, Hutchison, Drabek.
And then there's McGowan, Morrow, Santos, Cecil's loss of velocity, Janssen, Litsch, Chacin...  Alvarez got hurt last year.

Was Halladay the last young pitcher to perform well and stay healthy?

I don't worry about Stroman because of body type, I just think that if you have a pitcher under contract for cheap for five years, there's really no need to extend him. Besides, agents aren't stupid. If they think Stroman would get a much better deal after this year, they wouldn't sign anything. That is almost certainly the case with Stroman and his agent.

The only question the Rotation has is who's the 5th Starter to join the Rotation, not totally our 5th Starter. Drew Starter never had a chance to learn how to fail then succeed. Called up from A.A., he was just figuring out how to pitch up here when he hit the D.L. for Tommy John surgery. Still the unsure A.A. kid when he was picked as an important pitcher for the Jays in 2014, and that didn't help. Then he starts Game One (in NY) of the Season, which in his mind make him the Jays' NUMBER ONE Starter, and that didn't help. So going forward, I don't have any idea on what we'll get. If he can get consistent with his stuff, his control and his confidence, he's easily a top Mid-Rotation Starter, possibly better. Jesse Chavez will always have stamina problems after 20 starts, due to his inability to keep any gained weight. However, even when he's pitching well, he's just a good #5 Starter. Basically, he's just Marco Estrada-lite, and not quite that good. So what happens here will be interesting.

What a boring off season. at least Alex would have made a dozen or more waiver claim/outright player/minor league signings by now. Jeepers, spring can't get here soon enough :)

With approximately 50 days remaining until Pitchers and Catchers report in February. Trades are basically done as those who needed something went and got what they needed. Right now, Teams are filling the last few roster spots and unlikely to create more work for themselves.

Rotation depth will always be an issue, because what Teams think of as depth usually isn't. Toronto isn't any different. At present, with Sanchez definitely in the Bullpen, Toronto has 6 of the 8 real Starters they need. They also need to do better in AAA. I don't think any decisions get made here soon.

The Bullpen will probably always be a work in progress. Gibbons trusts 3 Relievers and Loup isn't one of them. Gibbons needs at least one more, probably two he can really trust. AAA could use more as well. Considering the importance of the Jays Bullpen, not succeeding here could be unacceptable.

I think the Jays can spend what they want to get what they need. I just don't think they want to spend what people are asking for. The Market is moving slowly; all the #1 and #2 Starters being off the board. Something might fall into the Jays lap, but finding the guys who might take what the Jays want to offer isn't happening anytime too soon.