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J.A. Happ is back with the Blue Jays after signing a three-year deal for $36 million in free agency.


J.A. Happ pitched against the Blue Jays for the first time in Seattle July 25 after being traded to the Mariners for outfielder Michael Saunders last off-season.



J.A. Happ has a chance to improve on his 19-20 record and 4.39 earned run average he compiled with Toronto from 2012 to 2014.

The 33-year-old lefty was 4-6 with a 4.64 ERA with Seattle before being traded to Pittsburgh for minor league righty Adrian Sampson at the July 31 trade deadline. Under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, Happ he won seven of nine decisions with an ERA of 1.85.

Jon Morosi has tweeted that Happ's deal means David Price will not be coming back to Toronto. Bauxites, what say you about Happ's return to Baseball North?



J.A. A Jay Again | 303 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Parker - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 08:44 PM EST (#315811) #
Is this for real? This busher isn't worth ONE year at $12M. I'm sure not impressed with the Shaprio regime so far.
sam - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 08:55 PM EST (#315815) #
Ugh
Lylemcr - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 08:58 PM EST (#315816) #
Ugh... that is about correct
Gerry - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:24 PM EST (#315820) #
The big question is what happened to Happ when he got to Pittsburgh? $12M per year for the Seattle Happ is not much of a deal but $12M for the Pittsburgh Happ is a steal.
Landomar - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:26 PM EST (#315821) #
WTF? I wouldn't want Happ on the team for one year at $5 million, let alone $36 million over 3 years. I was thrilled when we got rid of him last winter, and expect him to be our worst starting pitcher this year. Ugh.
JB21 - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:30 PM EST (#315823) #
I'll add a "ugh" to the pile.

So I'm going to assume that's the budget spent?
uglyone - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:34 PM EST (#315824) #
transferred from tbe other thread for posterity...

25yrs, Pre-arb: 24gs, 6.1ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-, 83xfip-, 4.9awar/32gs
41yrs, $12.0m: 67gs, 6.4ip/gs, 96era-, 111fip-, 113xfip, 2.4awar/32gs
32yrs, $13.0m: 46gs, 6.0ip/gs, 100era-, 124fip-, 120xfip-, 1.9awar/32gs
33yrs, $12.0m: 57gs, 5.7ip/gs, 100era-, 98fip-, 98xfip-, 2.6awar/32gs
32yrs, $4.7m: 47gs, 5.9ip/gs, 103era-, 99fip-, 95xfip-, 2.3awar/32gs
25yrs, Arb-1: 60gs, 5.6ip/gs, 124era-, 103fip-, 102xfip-, 1.3awar/32gs


it's actually kinda funny how diametrically opposed this is to what i was hoping to see this offseason. I guess this raised our "floor" but those are some mighty suspect floorboards imo
Gerry - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:46 PM EST (#315826) #
uglyone, I have to say I have no clue what your table represents.
Kasi - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:47 PM EST (#315827) #
Also an interesting thing about this is this lets the Jays keep Osuna and Sanchez in the pen. As much as people might hate this rotation, it's actually better than what the Royals just won the WS with. Maybe they're trying to emulate the team that beat them, although in that case trading Hendriks was odd. Will be curious what the Jays pick up in the reliever market. I wouldn't be against resigning Lowe.
uglyone - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:55 PM EST (#315829) #
sorry gerry.

that's our new rotation and their performamce as SP the last 2yrs.

their age, salary, total games started, their innings pitched per start, their era fip and xfip compared to league average with 100 being league average, and the average of their fipwar and ra9war per 32 starts.
rotorose - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 09:58 PM EST (#315830) #
If Boston signs Price and wins the East, we will remember this unHAPPy day.
SK in NJ - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:02 PM EST (#315831) #
Well, I guess I'll be the optimistic contrarian here and say that I'm fine with this move. Prior to the start of the off-season, I said I had no problem going the "KC Royals" route by acquiring average or better innings eaters without sacrificing picks or prospects, and that's the route Shapiro has taken. It's not the sexy way to go, but the Jays still have all their prospects to make deals later on (possibly mid-season again), and have SP's who can maintain rotation spots on the short-term while giving the farm system some time to develop other arms. More importantly, they now have six starters, and the off-season is still barely in the beginning stages. Still more time to add depth.

I'm going to give the org the benefit of the doubt and assume they tried to get someone better (Iwakuma/Shark/etc) but when it didn't work out, they went with their plan C, D, and E. I don't know what to expect from Happ. His numbers as a Pirate were incredible, and it was related to a change in his repertoire, so maybe some of it is sustainable, but even if he hits his projection (~2 WAR) it's probably worth the money he's making.

This is definitely Shapiro's influence. It might be LaCava suggesting the moves, but placeholders in the rotation while maintaining prospect capital and creating depth is pretty much the exact opposite of AA's style. Fits Shapiro's MO. The Jays weren't going to sign Price regardless of who the GM was though, so fans need to get over that.
christaylor - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:08 PM EST (#315833) #
Hutch will be better than Happ, both next year and every year of this deal.
Kasi - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:10 PM EST (#315834) #
I would have liked a guy like Leake, but that would likely be 5/90 and maybe it's something they weren't willing to do. But I think his ground ball ways would have worked here with this defense. But is he better than Chavez plus Happ? Not sure on that.
scottt - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:22 PM EST (#315836) #
Big Meh.

The Jays probably needed a lefty.

Did Happ figure something when in Pittsburgh?

Probably not.
Happ faced lefties 23% of the time when he was a Mariner and 33% of the time as a pirate. That's a huge difference.
He threw more strikes as a Pirate, but he simply used his four seamer more.
His off speed pitches tend to miss a lot.
Bad news is, he was using his fastball more as a Blue Jay too and that only got in an ERA in the 4.2 to 4.5 range.
That is what we'll see next year.

Richard S.S. - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:25 PM EST (#315837) #
With J.A. Happ signed, one of Jesse Chavez or Drew Hutchison does not make the Starting Rotation. That's a good thing. Roberto Osuna stays in the Bullpen. That's a better thing. Aaron Sanchez might be it the Rotation. That might not be a good thing. There's a lot of Winter left, so until Christmas, stuff will happen.

Paying a good #4 - #5 Starter about $12.0 - $13.0 Million per year is fair Market Value. And since Pittsburgh J.A. Happ is a good #4 - #5 Starter, whether or not anyone else thinks so.
scottt - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:30 PM EST (#315838) #
His numbers as a Pirate were incredible, and it was related to a change in his repertoire, so maybe some of it is sustainable, but even if he hits his projection (~2 WAR) it's probably worth the money he's making.

Nah. He was just facing weaker hitters.
And using his fastball 85% of the time against right handed hitters.

Everybody pitches better in the NL.
19 called strikes in Seattle. 21 in Pittsburgh.
joeblow - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:32 PM EST (#315840) #
2014 was so good. Let's try it again.
scottt - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:46 PM EST (#315841) #
Stroman, Estrada, Dickie, Happ,  and one spot open.

The worse thing about Happ is the 170 inning mark.
He's averaging less 6 innings per start.

AWeb - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 10:52 PM EST (#315842) #
I kept hoping he'd turn into Al Leiter 2.0, especially when he suddenly gained a little velocity, but it's a little late for that now...optimistically, he gives you 170 innings at about the level Buehrle gave the past three years. I'd be fine with this signing if the rotation had anyone remotely likely to provide ace level pitching all year (Stroman's innings next year - 150 maybe?).

If this works out, then I guess the new GM and president can take credit, but they also get the blame if Happ sucks. Weirdly a bold move in some ways, I guess...
hypobole - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 11:14 PM EST (#315845) #
Never liked Happ, but I'm a huge Ray Searage fan. He fixed Burnett, Liriano, Melancon and Volquez and they were not short term fixes.

My huge concern is whether Pete Walker can maintain Searage's modifications.

Here's some positive reading, this thread needs it.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/10/7/9464865/j-a-happ-pirates-the-cult-of-ray-searage-fastball
uglyone - Friday, November 27 2015 @ 11:45 PM EST (#315847) #
let me try to group jays SP by slot last year:

1.Price/Sanchez/etc: 32gs, 3.3ra9war, 3.0fwar, 3.2avg
2.Norris/Estrada: 33gs, 4.4ra9war, 1.9fwar, 3.2avg
3.Dickey/Dickey: 33gs, 3.6ra9war, 2.0fwar, 2.8avg
4.Buehrle/Buehrle: 32gs, 2.3ra9war, 2.1fwar, 2.2avg
5.Hutch/Stroman: 32gs, 0.7ra9war, 2.1fwar, 1.4avg

will this year's more expensive group match that? I think those #2-5 numbers are best case scenario for this group.

Stro better be the real deal.

shame because adding stro and gaining buehrle's $18m should have made it way easier to be way better than last year's.
Mylegacy - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 12:06 AM EST (#315848) #
Stroman, Estrada and Dickey - gives us a top three who with our offense (and defense) will post nice Wins totals. Chavez, Happ and Hutchison give us the opportunity to go with the Hot hand(s) and have an OK(ish) 4th and 5th guy. Sigh.

This - with our offense (and defense) gives us an excellent chance of getting to the play-offs. It also more or less guarantees that we'll fall short of GLORY unless SOMEONE in the bottom three, and or one of Osuna/Sanchez, turns into a serious revelation.

At least if Osuna/Sanchez are still in the pen we'll have a significant chance to win a few one run games this year. Perhaps the plan is to bring Price back as a long man in the pen...perhaps...

soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 12:22 AM EST (#315849) #
people wanted estrada gone in may. dickey too.
the rotation now has 3 guys that put together decent back halfs.

in happ's case he switched leagues and saw a spike in k% and a drop in his hr/fb...some of that is the fact that he faced way more lefties, pitching to expanded rosters in september, pitching to pitchers, pitching in bigger parks than in the al east, and maybe if you're an advanced scout for a team that's out of it in august, you don't put in as much work on someone like happ that switched leagues, for whom you don't have the same volume of reports/data from earlier in the year when all hope wasn't lost (that's likely a stretch, but maybe not a huge one).

i didn't like the second year on estrada, i hate the second and third on happ unless this means dickey is getting moved with thole. in which case it's a lateral move, and i still hate the third year.

i think it would have been better to let estrada walk, or use your leverage to keep him at one year. if he walks, the combined pay for estrada/happ would put a huge dent in price's salary for 2016/17/18...beyond which who knows what the team looks like.

i don't get paying full freight on happ. i'll believe he's legit when i see it.
hypobole - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 12:24 AM EST (#315850) #
BTW, extrapolating Happ's Pirate numbers to 200 IP (as some are wont to do) would yield 6.6 fWAR. Price was only worth 6.4 fWAR last year.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:18 AM EST (#315852) #
Do the Jays acquire a BIG LH Bat, they need one? Does 1B get a big upgrade, or do we stay in-house,? Does a Reliever get traded, or does Pompey go back to Buffalo? Can Michael Saunders play LF this year? Do the Jay's acquire another Starter, preferably a LHP, the Rotation needs to get better? The Jays need at least 1-3 Relievers depending on other moves - who? Gibbons certainly wants another LHP.

With best estimates, the Salary for 2015 is $135.0 Million. The Tender/Non-Tender deadline is still to come so it's unlikely, but possible the number changes. The Jays are still heavily into the Trade Market so it's possible something happens here. Until the Jays stop doing stuff, we have to assume there's still enough money left even though we don't know how much.
Newton - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:34 AM EST (#315853) #
Very limited upside in this rotation.

The serviceable SP depth will help in the regular season but will mean very little in the playoffs.

Let's hope they can put together a shut down bullpen and insert some quality in the final third of games.

Shapiro will be under pressure to add an ace at the deadline I suspect (and hope, as it will mean the Jays are in the hunt).
China fan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:39 AM EST (#315854) #
I like the deal.  Even if they don't add anyone else, the Jays now have a stronger rotation than what they began the 2015 season with.  Last season, the Jays began the season with some very unreliable pitchers in their rotation:  the very raw prospects Norris and Sanchez, plus the erratic Hutchison.  This season they won't need to rely on those kinds of guys -- unless they're clearly the best, against tougher competition, in spring training.   There's more depth and more reliability in the veterans that the Jays have.  Then they can add Hutchison or Sanchez if they force their way into the conversation.  More depth means fewer risks and more reliability.  Combine a decent rotation with excellent offense, and the Jays should be able to make a faster start to the 2016 season.

To recap what I said a few days ago (when I predicted a free-agent signing for the 4th slot in the rotation):  the rotation is now Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Happ, and a fifth slot that is open to competition among Chavez, Hutchison, Sanchez, Osuna and anyone else who arrives.  I think it's going to be a stronger rotation that what the Jays began 2015 with.  Of course one disastrous injury (like what Stroman suffered last season) could change this, but that's always true in any season.

JB21 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 02:07 AM EST (#315855) #
3/36 is a lot for 10 good starts. Maybe Happ's new arm slot really did make him much more effective, who knows.

MLB Trade Rumours predicted 3/30, and they're usually pretty good. 2/24 would've been been nice though.

The rotation currently consists of a #2 in Stroman and 5 pitchers that could be #3's or could be long men. I still hope Osuna gets a shot, but it's looking more and more like he's going to remain our CL.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 03:33 AM EST (#315856) #
I can't be sure, but I think I remember LaCava saying he was after two more Starters after the Chavez acquisition.
Jonny German - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 05:37 AM EST (#315857) #
Awful. When AA got pushed out I was mostly sad because I was a big AA fan, not because I expected the new regime to be lousy. The early results are not good. Happ comes with neither good value nor good upside. The Jays should do well in 2016 thanks to the offensive core assembled by AA, but Shapiro's vision of "sustainability" beyond that is looking a lot like what the Jays had through the Ash and Ricciardi years - sustained mediocrity.
Glevin - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:11 AM EST (#315858) #
Not an exciting signing but hard to judge until we see other pitchers sign. If guys like Chen and Leake get deals like 5/$100M then this is a good deal. There will almost certainly be deals for pitchers I like more but whether the Jays could have got those deals is another story. The Jays obviously think that their offense will be good enough that having a group of decent starters will take them to the playoffs. It's a reasonable gamble without risking too much long-term.

I find too many of the retrospective views on AA little more than hagiography. What do you think he would have done? Signed Price to a 3 year $10M contract? Traded for Sonny Gray while giving up nothing? His history of acquiring starting pitchers was not good which is why we started last year with Drew Hutchison as the opening day starter. The Jays were not going to commit to long-term expensive signings of pitchers which is the right move. Whether or not they could have done better than Happ is definitely a question worth asking, but inserting some other false option whereby the Jays get a top starter is not a real alternative.
whiterasta80 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:16 AM EST (#315859) #
If this is our marquee offseason signing I'm furious and I think that both Shapiro and Rogers find out very quickly that our fans won't tolerate this approach whatsoever.

If this signing represents a clever move to be proactive and save costs by signing the depth guy before signing the ace, or a decision that they'd rather pay Jason Hewyard or Chris Davis than a #1 starting pitcher then I will be very happy both with this move and the plan.

Unfortunately 20+ years have suggested that the first explanation is more likely.




Alex Obal - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:33 AM EST (#315860) #
One thing Searage does is take pitchers with too much rotational movement and make them go straight home. In Happ's case, it spiked his velocity and might have improved his command too. That strikes me as pretty good qualitative evidence that second-half Happ might have been a new man.

There are a lot of posts in this thread that say "no upside" and I can't quite agree with that. If Happ had pitched 21% K 7% BB 41% GB 5.9 IP/GS 3.7 RA9 all year in Seattle and Pittsburgh, two very pitcher-friendly environments, my reaction to this signing on the heels of Estrada's would have been "existential despair." Back to eternal mediocrity where we belong. But his numbers in Pittsburgh were David Price-level amazing. The possibility that he's finally unlocked himself has me on board with this. He wouldn't be the first lefty to peak in his 30s.

So I like the move but not what it represents. Both Happ and Estrada look to me like decent value deals, Happ moreso. But I would prefer to have Price + filler and trust my scouts to do something clever with the #5 spot. And I wouldn't be concerned about the length of a Price deal unless I had inside knowledge that the value of live baseball content was about to crash. I think people often overrate the difficulty of offloading bad contracts.

It's nice that someone wanted to return to Toronto!
Dave Till - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:34 AM EST (#315861) #
My reaction to this signing is similar to that of the small child who excitedly races down the stairs on Christmas morning, only to discover that the big present under the tree is a sweater instead of a shiny new toy from (ahem) Fisher-Price.

This is exactly the sort of sensible, cost-controlled signing that we have come to expect from the Jays, especially given that Happ doesn't require the loss of a draft pick. The Jays' rotation might now be good enough to win, if the offense resumes its world-beating ways, but it's a bit disappointing, especially since all the rumours are suggesting that Price is going to the Red Sox.

I'm not sure I can handle an endless future of fiscally rational 83-79 seasons.
King Ryan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 07:10 AM EST (#315862) #
Ugh. Why?
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 07:31 AM EST (#315863) #
J.A. Happ might be better or have a better season than Buehrle. A full season of Estrada should have a better first half in 2016 than Norris and Estrada had in 2015. R.A. Dickey is R.A. Dickey, he may or may not be better this year. Marcus Stroman should be better than the Aaron Sanchez plus 5th Starters 2015 period, until he runs out of gas. Lastly they need someone a lot better than Hutchison, even if it's Hutchison himself.

I agree this rotation so far could be better than the 2015 Rotation. But as Postseason goes, it's not even close.
85bluejay - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:02 AM EST (#315864) #
Not surprised at all - no longterm commitment, though I was expecting Kazmir instead of Happ - leaves Shapiro with lots of options after 2016 when potentially about 50M in payroll will come off the books (if the Jays potential FA's are not extended) - easy to get to a 100m payroll range especially if you move 1 of the expensive players (Tulo/Martin/Donaldson) left after 2016 - unless we reach the series next year I'm expecting a significant payroll cut for 2017.

Surprised that Happ signed so early with the Jays because if I recall he was unhappy about his usage when he was here - the Jays must have been easily the highest bidder.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays tried to acquire near ML ready pitchers like Mark Appel who could be ready by mid-season if the team starts poorly and there is a sell-off in July.

I could also see the Jays signing inexpensive guys like John Axford & Neftali Feliz for the BP - allowing the young cheap controllable arms of Sanchez & Osuna to open in the Buffalo rotation.

Malcolm Little - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:20 AM EST (#315865) #
I'm actually OK with this provided three things turn out to be true:

1. This is adding depth now to organizational P to avoid buying it with prospects at the deadline.

2. This isn't a new cheapskate approach from either Shapiro or Rogers.

3. This doesn't preclude going for an ace. I know it's very much unlikely we get a Price back, but cotdam, the Roger's coffers must have swelled after that run, and there's little place else to re-invest in the team (I'm OK with Smoak/Colabello at 1B, and I don't really care about backup C, certainly not for actual cash).

Two of my points are related to spending approach by the team: That's everything. If Roger's is going to be cheap after those ratings, those merch sales, those playoff home gates, those full houses, those #cometogether tweets, those batflips, well.......

I just pray we're with Labatt's and not Interbrew.

So Happ isn't disastrous, and quite likely, he'll be a useful Buerhle replacement.

But what comes next?
Malcolm Little - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:23 AM EST (#315866) #
I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays tried to acquire near ML ready pitchers like Mark Appel who could be ready by mid-season if the team starts poorly and there is a sell-off in July.


I'm a little verklempt. I need a moment. Talk amongst yourselves. Maybe we can get Otis Nixon cheaply again.
85bluejay - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:35 AM EST (#315867) #
I would be shocked if the Jays sign any player with a QO or that requires a longterm commitment - I also don't expect the Jays to part with their top prospects (unless it's for comparable young talent) - it's all about trying to compete on a mid-level budget.
jensan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:47 AM EST (#315868) #
WHICH ONE MORE PITCHER BESIDE Happ.
TBJ payroll is presently $92.5 MM for 7 players.
Arbitration cases excluding Delabar and Thole for 10 players is projected at $37.5 MM.
Pre-Arg cases are around $4 MM totaling $134 MM.
Maybe a FA like Zimmerman 6/$120 MM Mike Leake 5/75.
if Zimmerman than make two trades
1. Salazar + Allen for Pillar+ Colabello
2. Hutchison for Derek Norris
3. Trade Dickey for prospects
The payroll for the 25 man roster would be $144.8 MM, or $139.8 if it is Mike Leake.
rpriske - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:52 AM EST (#315869) #
3. This doesn't preclude going for an ace

But of course it does. This IS their 'big money' starting pitcher signing. Combine this with the trade for Chavez and they are... in their eyes anyway, set. (Stroman / Estrada / Dickey / Happ / Chavez) The new Jays management has indicated the way they want to go, and it is NOT back to the playoffs.

CeeBee - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:12 AM EST (#315870) #
"But of course it does. This IS their 'big money' starting pitcher signing. Combine this with the trade for Chavez and they are... in their eyes anyway, set. (Stroman / Estrada / Dickey / Happ / Chavez) The new Jays management has indicated the way they want to go, and it is NOT back to the playoffs."

And you know this for s a fact? Man, the offseason is barely started and so much angst.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:13 AM EST (#315871) #
Not the left-hander I was hoping for, but I have two views on it. My rational side thinks this is not a bad deal if Happ maintains his late season numbers. Signing a top pitcher to a big contract might hamstring us down the road, especially in resigning Bautista and/or EE. My other money-is-no-object side was really wishing for Price to come back, and thought we had a real chance, given that he had experienced playing here and liked it. I envisioned the powerful Price-Stroman one-two punch in the rotation, and the swaggering Jays bursting out of the gate and destroying the AL east next year to sell-out crowds.However, the newly acquired Chavez and Happ may do fine with a combined salary of less than a top ace. If not, there will be plenty of weeping and gnashing of teeth.
hypobole - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:17 AM EST (#315872) #
Who won the WS this year?

None of the teams that had the great ace SP's like Kershaw, Arrieta, Keuchel, Cole, Price. Scherzer.

Sale, Kluber, Archer, Baumgartner didn't even make th playoffs.

Happ's 3.3 fWAR was better than any Royals starter except Cueto, who only provided 1.1 fWAR after being acquired.

The Royals SP's TOTALLED 8.4 fWAR last year - only 7 MLB teams had less.

Jays already have 2 very good young late inning bullpen arms - the 6th and 7th innings are the areas LaCava and Shapiro need to address now. That is a lot less daunting task than trying to outbid the Cubs, Red Sox or Dodgers for David Price.
Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:25 AM EST (#315873) #
With the Jays payroll and the obvious move of taking Dickey's option they only had about 30 million to play with. Signing Price would have been there only move, and they need more than one starter. Now they have three and a few more million aside to hopefully improve the bullpen.
Mike Green - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:38 AM EST (#315874) #
I like the subtle change to the banner. 

I also like the acquisition of Happ.  At this point, he's a left-hander who strikes out more than 7.5 per 9 and walks less than 3 per 9 (this being the big issue for him over his career).  He holds runners pretty well.  He will get his share of ground balls.  The sum total is usually a winning formula for pitcher.  He still throws a lot of pitches despite a much lower W rate, and you have to figure him for 6 innings per start and leave it at that. 

I am coming around to the idea of Hutchison starting the season in the major league bullpen.  He can work out some things there in lower leverage situations and then hopefully be ready when a need arises in the rotation. 

Chuck - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:43 AM EST (#315875) #
Even with the recent signings, it is clear that this team will need more pitching. Even setting aside issues of quality, quantity figures to be an issue.

Each of Estrada (age 31), Happ (32) and Chavez (31) logged their career highs in innings last year: 181, 170, 157. One might look at those numbers as a baseline to grow from. Or one might see 3 guys who might be challenged to collectively throw 450 innings in 2016.

I don't know what Stroman's cap will be, but I don't see the organization supporting the idea of 200 innings. So maybe he'll land in the 150-180 area.

Even with Dickey's presumed 200 innings, this feels light.

I guess I've forgotten about Hutchison in all this. He's a wildcard. He may land in the 150-180 inning range himself. Or lead Buffalo to the post-season.

Collectively, the six-man starting crew of S/D/E/C/Ha/Hu doesn't inspire the greatest confidence. It might be another matter if you had the Royals' bullpen.

But it's early. Let's see what else Shapiro can do before hoisting and petards come into play.

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#315876) #
That is a lot less daunting task than trying to outbid the Cubs, Red Sox or Dodgers for David Price.

You could add "especially with 75 cent dollars". Price is rumoured to be in line for a deal around 7 years at $217 million. In CDN dollars, that's approximately $290 mil.
Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:49 AM EST (#315877) #
I would have liked them to keep Hendriks though. That's the one of the three deals I don't like, but maybe it was predicated on Gibbons not liking or using him. But still if instead of Chavez they found another league average SP for 6-10 million than a bullpen of Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Hendriks, Loup and two others looks pretty sexy. Even without him it should be fine, especially if they pick up an arm or two. (Like resigning Lowe for example)
Mike Green - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:55 AM EST (#315878) #
Chuck, Estrada threw 19 very good innings in the playoffs.  That puts him to 200 for the season.  That was a first for him, but I don't know that I would expect Dickey to throw many more innings than Estrada in 2016 given the way the post-season went.  I'd mark them both down for 180 innings. 

They're going to need 200 good innings from Stroman.  And I think he'll give them that.  200 for Stroman, 180 for Dickey and Estrada, 170 for Happ, 150 for Chavez and 100 for Hutchison would be 980- about right, although the odds are good that they'll need 60-100 innings from another starter.  Which is what the deadline is for...

uglyone - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 10:03 AM EST (#315879) #
none of estrada, happ, chavez were even full time starters in 2015. or the year prior, either. even Dickey was flirting with bullpen time in 2015

$42m.

wowza.
Gerry - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 10:51 AM EST (#315880) #
John Lott in the post today tells how Ray Searage, the Pittsburgh pitching coach, made some changes to Happ's delivery that helped him pitch better. Basically Happ was rotating his body too much which led him to drop his arm angle.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:05 AM EST (#315882) #
"Collectively, the six-man starting crew of S/D/E/C/Ha/Hu doesn't inspire the greatest confidence. It might be another matter if you had the Royals' bullpen."


The Jays were 93-69 in 2015 with 91% of the team's starts going to Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada, Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Doubront, Copeland, Boyd, and Redmond.

The rotation looks much improved over last season, and the depth is remarkably better (with lots of time to add more). Stroman will need to pitch a full season as he is going to have to be the main guy, but the organization for the first time in a long time is appreciating the value of depth in the rotation, and that's going to help a lot.

This was the direction I wanted the Jays to take, so I'm fine with it. Would have preferred Iwakuma over Happ, but it takes two to tango in free agency, and Happ's adjustments after joining Pittsburgh still makes him an intriguing signing.
stevieboy22 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:18 AM EST (#315883) #
Yesterday on Prime Time Sports two callers called in and mentioned numbers from Rogers annual report... Neither of them seemed like analysts, but it makes you think, we are now at the point where fans are looking at Rogers and saying "why aren't you spending?" And it's only going to get worse...

It's quite simple, they give Price a long term deal, they sell out every game in 2016 and they have the highest regional TV ratings of any team...

Fans are waking up to this. The "we don't have enough money excuse" is something fans don't want to hear anymore.... If JA Happ is the big offseason acquisition, fans are going to be upset.. And not at the baseball organization....

There was a game in late August where the Jays played the Yankees with the two teams neck and neck in the playoff race.... The Jays did 1.5 million viewers while the Yankees did 650k......

Resigning David Price isn't a baseball decision at this point, it's a business decision... And I honestly believe the Jays are gonna do the right thing and sign him...

uglyone - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:27 AM EST (#315884) #
"This was the direction I wanted the Jays to take, so I'm fine with it. "

I get that you agree with Shapiro's Risk Spreading strategy.....but even then do you really see this rotation as Low Risk?

It looks to me like one of the riskier rotations in baseball, and one of the most expensive. And it just so happens to have minimal upside to boot.

"The rotation looks much improved over last season, "

even if that's true, that's only because of stroman.

but even then, I'm far from convinced our rotation is improved over what we got last year:

1.Sanchez/Misc/Price: 32gs, 3.3ra9war, 3.0fwar, 3.2avg
2.Norris/Estrada: 33gs, 4.4ra9war, 1.9fwar, 3.2avg
3.Dickey/Dickey: 33gs, 3.6ra9war, 2.0fwar, 2.8avg
4.Buehrle/Buehrle: 32gs, 2.3ra9war, 2.1fwar, 2.2avg
5.Hutch/Stroman: 32gs, 0.7ra9war, 2.1fwar, 1.4avg
PeterG - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:43 AM EST (#315885) #
Not a chance the Jays will sign Price. There never was. It will end up being a horrible contract and a huge albatross. Let someone else have it.

I am sure Walker will talk with Searage in the off season if he hasn't already.
Ishai - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:47 AM EST (#315886) #
For me the initial reaction was "ugh," but every thought since then has been positive.

We need arms that can pitch innings. The Jays with a league average starting pitching staff still probably win the AL East next year. The real danger is not having enough league average innings. If we sign Price, the other signings that could not happen as a result of putting all those eggs in one basket might bring more L's than Price brings W's.

To give an obviously unrealistic hypothetical that might illustrate this point: say the Blue Jays score 5 runs every single game next year. In that case it would be better to have two pitchers who give up 4 runs every game than one pitcher who gives up 2 and one pitcher who gives up 6. All this depends on standard deviation and other things, but I think league average innings are disproportionately valuable to the Blue Jays because of their stellar offense.

The Blue Jays are proving to be real believers in fringe veterans making adjustments and upping their level of play mid-career (Bautista, Encarnacion, Estrada, now Happ), which is morally pleasing. Nothing like hard work paying off.

Only thing that makes me nervous is a starting rotation without an ace has extra pressure to win the division to avoid the one game wild card playoff. But I think the Jays as is are the favourites to win the East, and I also think Shapiro isn't done making moves.

electric carrot - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:49 AM EST (#315887) #
I like this signing and also the Chavez deal.  I don't think it's unrealistic that Happ's new normal will be that of a #2 or #3 starter given the tweaks in his delivery.  Chavez I think is bottom of the rotation guy but the sort of starter who could do well with our explosive offense. And all things considered I don't think he cost us that much.  Price, I think is the wrong kind of signing for this team and I would be concerned about the last half of the deal, (I'm thinking CC Sabathi.) I think if things look good for this team near the end of July we make another move like the Price move this year and hopefully hit the playoff with two aces. Happ and Chavez I think will help this team win games during the regular season.
electric carrot - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:51 AM EST (#315888) #
And what Ishai said.


uglyone - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 12:07 PM EST (#315889) #
even in his great stretch in PIT, Happ averaged only 5.7ip per start. That's about as low as an SP can get. His careeer high is 172ip. This is not an innings eater here.
hypobole - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 12:23 PM EST (#315890) #
How many innings eaters did the Royals have?

UO, you keep referencing how great the Osuna/Sanchez combo are, and Cecil was a terrific lefty reliever.

If reports of the Jays trying to get one more starter are accurate, using Chavez as the long man/6th stater will put this team in excellent position. If not, a couple of good but not great bullpen pieces and depth signings will still have us in great shape.
Paul D - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:00 PM EST (#315891) #
I don't think this is likely, but it's possible that this opens the door to trading Dickey and still signing a big money player.
soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:06 PM EST (#315892) #
i had a ballpark pass. i have been to every home opener for nearly 20 years, and i'm not going this year because they want me to buy a flex pass to get tickets.

they've signalled to me that my loyalty has meant nothing. that's fine - their prerogative. but, as quick as they brought fans out, they'll lose them if they don't win.

i don't believe shapiro is going to financially commit to AA's vision beyond selling tickets to X-mas/holiday buyers via these kinds of moves that nominally raise the floor from drew hutchison post-2015, to guys that are older versions of drew hutchison post-2014 (ie. had a good 2- 4 month stretch at the end of the season).

i'm not buying.
soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:22 PM EST (#315893) #
in getting price, the jays would also prevent the red sox from getting him.

what is the opportunity cost of NOT signing price if you then have to face him 3-5 times against the sox instead of deploy him?

in a vacuum, he added about 3 wins to the jays last year per WAR, and would in theory add 6 wins to BOS next year - a 9 win gap in the standings closed.

by my math, the jays can't afford to not sign price. but then, who was paying attention to the team before he played here, really?

greenfrog - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:34 PM EST (#315894) #
Interesting quote from Shapiro that (consciously or not) emphasizes his consultative approach:

“We obviously had multiple holes to fill in our pitching staff, and our front-office team felt diversifying the risk among multiple pitchers who could start was important, both due to our need at the (major-league) level and our lack of Triple-A depth starting pitchers.”
Malcolm Little - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:36 PM EST (#315895) #
Stevieboy22, you nailed this right on the head.

Divvying up the extra 2015 revenue on the shareholders is very short sighted.
Malcolm Little - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:38 PM EST (#315896) #
I fail to see how replacing the cost of Buehrle with Happ and re-signing Dickey to nearly the same money as he made last year doesn't still leave with them with the resources for Price.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:41 PM EST (#315897) #
I think this direction plays to the team's strengths while maintaining financial flexibility and keeping the prospect base in tact. To me, it's the best of both worlds. Still going all in for 2016 but keeping an eye on 2017-beyond when the team will have to make decisions on some key FA's (Bautista/EE/Cecil) and retool with what they have left (Donaldson/Tulo/Martin/Stroman).

The Jays are projected to have an elite offense, very good defense, and power arms in the pen (still could use another late-inning option or two). Their main issue, aside from depth in general, was SP depth. This type of approach is logical in that the Jays project to be so strong in other areas that they can still conceivably win with average or better arms in the rotation, and the more depth they accumulate, the more they can compensate for any decline from individual rotation options and/or injuries without being forced to dig up the likes of Chien-Ming Wang, Ramon Ortiz, and Dave Bush from the 2000's.

The key is to build a sustainable winner. While Happ, Estrada, Chavez, etc, are not going to be long-term core pieces, they are not meant to be. They are meant to hold rotation spots, be league average or better, and create a situation where the team can still develop prospects internally without thrusting them into MLB spots due to lack of other options. This is the exact opposite of AA's philosophy, so I'm not surprised at the reaction. You simply are not going to survive with only 5 SP options, and the fact that the Jays only had 3 SP options total when the off-season started makes the last month of moves even more necessary. The Jays could not afford to do the "one star, pray for depth" approach again, certainly not when it would cost 7/225, or whatever Price is going to get.
JB21 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:56 PM EST (#315898) #
Well Malcolm, you have to add the salary increases for JD, Martin, and Estrada into the equation as well.
jerjapan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:59 PM EST (#315899) #
Hope you are right SK! 

It might actually be a positive to have Shapiro in place for part 2 of the Jays contending window - AA got us to the playoffs with some risky and bold approaches to trading and drafting, and Shapiro takes the less sexy - but arguably safer - route to consistent contention.

But man, I'm certain I'd be having a lot more fun following the Jays offseason if it was AA at the helm.

I do share the frustration of some re: Rogers - the fans who supported the team down the stretch deserve a reward, and so far we've got a frozen budget and raised ticket prices.  I doubt Rogers really cares, and sadly, I'm not sure there's much a fan can do to demand a better product.  I don't want to support another team or follow a different sport!

Cracka - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 02:00 PM EST (#315900) #
doesn't still leave with them with the resources for Price.. I absolutely agree that they have, or could have, and definitely should have room in the 2016 budget to pay Price. But I don't think that's the issue. The issue is total guaranteed amount that would be required for Price and the long-term payroll implications of going all-in (i.e 20%+ of team payroll) for the next seven seasons on a pitcher on the wrong side of 30. It will almost certainly become a bad contract at some point (say by 2020, with ~$90 million still remaining). The Jays/Shapiro/Rogers aren't a group that will be willing to take that risk. The Red Sox can. The Dodgers can. The Cubs probably can. But if Price were willing to come for say 3 years / $90 million, I'm almost certain Shapiro & ownership would find a way to make it happen.
soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 02:13 PM EST (#315901) #
the jays still have no rotational depth. no one in the rotation has even been a SP their entire career, for example.
Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 02:21 PM EST (#315902) #
Yeah agree with Cracka, Price would certainly be affordable for 16, although for reasons SDK explained perhaps not wise since we'd have no starting pitching depth. But in 2017 when Martin bumps up to 20 million and JD is there even while still in arbitration, not to mention any thoughts of resigning Jose/EE makes things a lot trickier.

As for the exciting point jer, I think I'd be a bit more excited about a rotation of Stroman, Syndergarrd, Estrada, Norris and one other (any of D'Sciafani, Hoffman, Boyd, etc) pitching to Gomes or D'Arnaud. We totally could have had that exciting starting rotation and with so many cheap options a guy like Price or Greinke or Leake could certainly have been signed. That's what exciting trades get you a lot of the time, seeing your young guys become contributors/stars on other teams.

I think Shapiro will certainly sign some big FAs in his time here, but I expect to see a shift towards more internal development, less rushing of prospects and extensions that buy out early FA years and lock up players through their prime seasons, their late twenties.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 02:46 PM EST (#315903) #
the jays still have no rotational depth. no one in the rotation has even been a SP their entire career, for example.

By that argument, a lot of pretty good starting pitchers who got their start in the bullpen, wouldn't be considered "depth".

Saying that Dickey isn't really a starter at this point (he won a freakin' Cy Young!) is pretty laughable. He's had 6 years straight of 26+ starts.

Of JA Happ's career 196 games, 171 were starts. That's 87%+ starting. I guess since Jimmy Key was only 82.8%  starting for his career, he wasn't a starter either? Even with 2 2nd-place Cy Young finishes?? 

Marcus Stroman had 6 relief appearances to start his career, then all starts. That's better than Roy Halladay - he only started 20 of his first 38 appearances - barely over 50%!

I'm sorry - was this meant to be a troll????


whiterasta80 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 03:28 PM EST (#315904) #
I swore after last years deadline that I would never question ownership's commitment again- but shapiro seems hell bent on testing that vow.


I agree with the above- saying someone isn't a starter their whole career isn't a legitimate criticism.

That said, it's perfectly justifiable to be concerned that our staff lacks a Buerhle-level innings eater.
jerjapan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 03:41 PM EST (#315905) #
As for the exciting point jer, I think I'd be a bit more excited about a rotation of Stroman, Syndergarrd, Estrada, Norris and one other (any of D'Sciafani, Hoffman, Boyd, etc) pitching to Gomes or D'Arnaud. We totally could have had that exciting starting rotation and with so many cheap options a guy like Price or Greinke or Leake could certainly have been signed. That's what exciting trades get you a lot of the time, seeing your young guys become contributors/stars on other teams.

Come on man, are you looking for discussion or are you 100% certain that you are totally correct?  I get suspicious of arguments that are so black and white ...

But to use your example, that rotation would be cheap.  It's quite possible that it would be worse than the rotation we currently have in place - next season and going forward.  Or it could be better.  D'Scliafani has some red flags, as do Hoffman and Boyd.  Norris might be Kyle Drabeck v.2.  You are familiar with TINSTAAPP no doubt. 

It's also possible that the catching duo of Gomes and D'arnaud would be strong, but perhaps it's more likely - as Ugly has pointed out to you before - the D'Arnaud is not going to stick behind the plate.  Both guys have serious injury issues - a huge concern for you based on your own arguments. 

It's also possible that players don't want to sign with perennial rebuilds.  So sure, we have the money for Price - but why would he sign here?   Is the excitement of the pennant run, or the huge winning streak of 2013, irrelevant? 

I feel there are clearer examples of the dangers of not paying market value for talent from other sports at the moment -  is the developing homegrown talent approach working for the Edmonton Oilers, or the Philladelphia 76ers? 

Ultimately, you just keep ignoring alternative points and hammering on your own.  why not address the Ricky Romero or Carlos Santana contracts as risks when you discuss this genius plan of signing young players long term?  Shapiro has strengths and weaknesses - like AA.  He's got a dreadful drafting record unlike AA - which is precisely the cornerstone of your team-building approach, internal development. 

And let's not forget, Shapiro has signed off on some bad FA contracts. 

Shapiro has done some good value deals with homegrown talent.  The Carasco contract is great.  Will the Kluber / Kipnis deals work?  Romero looked good at one point.  Gomes' deal looks bad if he can't rebound. 

Time will tell. but if you want to keep making the same points, how about some actual proof?  Do you literally believe that trading is always bad?  If you keep bringing up non-prospect throw in Gomes, it seems like you do. 
Mylegacy - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 03:43 PM EST (#315906) #
I'm slowly talking myself in from the ledge...

I think our "starting rotation" in 16 will start the season better than our starting "starting rotation" in 15 did. IF it does we have a better chance of entering June with the kind of winning % our offense and defense deserve. Is there a reasonable chance that three of Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Chavez, Hutchison and or Dickey will form a Championship Team quality top three? I don't think so either. However, I'm very high on Stroman and Estrada. Estrada deserves more respect than we give him. I've seen the chart showing the considerable difference in Happ's release points after his "Searage Correction" - have a look - it really is quite compelling.

I've convinced myself of TWO things about this rotation...

ONE: The Jays NEED(ed) more than "an ACE." We've acquired THREE professional quality(ish) starters. Estrada is GOOD - at least a very good #3 guy - at best a solid #2. IF Happ is "fixed by Searage" then he's a seriously solid #3 at worse. Can Chavez, Hutch, Dickey, Sanchez and perhaps Osuna give us enough back end of the rotation quality innings to make us respectable? I think they can. Was it smart to grab enough starters early to at least help give us the chance to get to the play-offs? Yes, I think of it like "Musical Chairs:" it would be a disaster IF when the starters were gone, and the music had stopped, we were left short of arms. At least now we can fill out a starting rotation.

TWO: I see our "new Rotation" (given our offense and defense) being good enough to seriously challenge for a Play-off spot -  AND - like last year I think we'll have enough sheckels left in Rogers stingy claws to get us a "Rent-An-Ace" in late July for the "Push to Glory."
scottt - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 03:57 PM EST (#315907) #
I like the deal.

Of course you do. What's the last deal you didn't like?

They could be better than last year when they reached the trade deadline 1 game under 500, but they will probably face tougher opposition in 2016. So, I wouldn't put any money on that.
John Northey - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:03 PM EST (#315908) #
This feels a lot like God Ash v2. Let's sign middle of the road guys to market value deals where if they slip at all they are write offs. Luckily we have an elite offense so things could still work our but ugh. I am not a fan of this move.
JB21 - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:08 PM EST (#315909) #
Luckily we have an elite offense

But, this is a fact, and not something that we just woke up today with. This is the reason that the Jays are collecting average MLB rotation pieces, you can't compare this to another situation that didn't have this elite offence.

I don't get how people can bitch about a trade like the Gomes trade and just pretend like JD was homegrown and wasn't acquired via trade. Some big time cherry picking around here.

soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:25 PM EST (#315910) #
vw_fan17: it's just meant to highlight that the jays' rotation is not full of elite SP prospects that became major league starters.

the dodgers also have a good lineup, so they could afford last year (and this year) to grab mccarthy, anderson, and nicasio, and see what stuck behind kershaw/grienke/ryu. the jays, we hope, have stroman up front, and then a lot of league-average innings behind it.

i get that they'll still probably get over 500 without breaking a sweat, but this is a problem that isn't going to look much better unless happ and estrada are suddenly much different pitchers than their career #s suggest. personally, i think you can look at 2014 drew hutchison for evidence of how a post-asb breakout can often be illusory. of course there are many such examples on either side, i'm just not optimistic when a team's strategy is still heavily dependent on people doing something for 6 months next year that they've never done for a full season before.
scottt - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:26 PM EST (#315911) #
Rotational movement?

Is it possible to reliably strike out hitters with a 92 mph 4 seamers?
I doubt it. It's too dependent on hitters watching strikes.

It was only 10 games, against poor opposition.
Look at it and despair:

Reds (64-98) 2 wins for Happ.
Colorado (68-94) 2 wins for Happ
Miami (71-91) 1 win for Happ
Arizona (79-83) 1 win for Happ
Mets (90-72) 1 loss
Cubs (95-65) 2 losses
St-Louis (100-62) 1 win and 1 loss

7 wins against very bad teams.
1 win (with 9 runs of support) and 3 losses against good team.


scottt - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:30 PM EST (#315912) #
That said, it's perfectly justifiable to be concerned that our staff lacks a Buerhle-level innings eater.

Dickie is the new inning eater. Will Gibby still pull in early because he's putting men on base in the 7th or use a proper long man? I'm worried.
soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:33 PM EST (#315913) #
Scott - nice work.

i suggested earlier that Happ's success might be a mirage related to teams like colorado and cincy having fallen out of it and basically not having advanced scouting reports on him from earlier in the year.

if you're a team that's out of it, can you take your mlb advanced scouts and try to get them to do more useful work looking at potential trade targets, or other administrative stuff? or is it like: you work 100% on trying to win every single game, even when the season is lost?

since the good teams in the NL still hit him, maybe they just spent a bit more time scouting what he was featuring? the #s certainly suggest so.

it's frustrating to me to see the same old stuff happening to this team as happens every year since rogers turned out. but hey, we have that statue out front of the stadium to remind us of the glory years.
scottt - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 04:47 PM EST (#315914) #
The Jays were 93-69 in 2015 with 91% of the team's starts going to Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada, Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Doubront, Copeland, Boyd, and Redmond.

Price was 9-1.
Buehrle was 15-8 and so was Hutchison.

On the one hand, we won't see 54 starts going to Norris, Doubront, Copeland, Boy and Redmond, who collectively went 3-5. On the other we'll see a lot more of Chavez and Happ who will probably be around 10-10 over 30 starts.

We really need Hutch to come through.


Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 05:00 PM EST (#315915) #
Jerjapan are you really serious about Carlos Santana? The guy signed from 2012-2016 for 21 million with a team option for 17 that has given them in that window a WAR of 10.5? At the going rate of 6-7 million/WAR he has given them 65-70 million in value already. That is an absolutely fantastic signing, one I'd take any day. By the end of the contract given another 2.5 WAR season next year they'll have spent 21 million for about 90 million dollars of value.

Look it sucks Romero got injured, but guess what Price could too. Older players get injured more and having a career ender cost your team a sunk 30 million is infinitely worse than having it cost you 8 million. Not to mention pre FA contracts are generally in the five year range and these giant FA ones for thirty year olds are usually 6-7 because of all the competition on bidding from desperate teams. The stats show that big contracts for players over thirty rarely work out so you have to be extremely picky on handing out huge long term deals.

Sure you can name the Oilers or Sixers, but for every one of those there are multiple examples of teams winning titles through internal development. Like the Giants who won half of the last six World Series mostly on players they drafted. Or the Cards, or the Royals, hell even Boston has done a very good job of developing from within.

Trading isn't always bad, but I prefer the way the Cards do it. They'll make trades, but they trade known quantities, like Miller or Rasmus. They just don't throw tons of unknown and unproven youngsters at volume in exchange for old players and mid season rentals. They'll sign an occasional FA, but they know not to rely on old players to fill their team.

I'm not saying sign all our young guys to those types of deals. I'm saying there are players like Stroman and maybe Travis or Pompey or Osuna that it could be worth doing it for. It's up to the FO to see if their skills are sustainable and worth locking to the team. That's where teams can generate value. You'll never get value on a 200 million post 30 FA. I know you're all over the trading prospects is the new efficiency, but that only works if you trade for cost controlled guys like Donaldson. You'll never get it in the trades AA made with the Mets and Marlins.

scottt - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 05:03 PM EST (#315916) #
The issue is total guaranteed amount that would be required for Price and the long-term payroll implications of going all-in (i.e 20%+ of team payroll) for the next seven seasons on a pitcher on the wrong side of 30.

Price would be happy to be traded as soon as the team stops competing and he doesn't cost a draft pick.
The difference between 3 and 7 years is the odds of a career ending injury and that doesn't even change drastically. Let's say you pay him $90 million and he makes 2 starts.

The Jays could be seller at the deadline as soon as 2017 and you won't convince me there would be no taker for Price then.
Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 05:38 PM EST (#315917) #
One point for Santana is yes the team option is the only year of FA they saved, but considering Revere whose best season would be Santana's fifth best season got 4 million last year and is estimated to get about seven this year still makes it a fantastic deal for the Indians.
John Northey - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:15 PM EST (#315918) #
I'm on record a few times about the insanity of 7 year deals for pitchers. Checking the top 5 WAR pitchers for the Jays all time we get for ages 30-36
Halladay wouldn't have been worth it (5 great years, 2 horrid ones)
Stieb (3 good, 3 bad, 1 retired)
Key would've been much to the surprise of HOF GM Pat Gillick
Hentgen wouldn't have been close (37-48 97 ERA+ 30+ starts just twice)
Jim Clancy 3 times had 30+ starts, twice had 100+ ERA+, didn't pitch at age 36 purely relief age 35.

Ugh. Clearly a 7 year deal for a 30 year old pitcher even with the best of the best gets you a lost year or more.

#6 was Guzman was coming off an ERA title and only pitched until age 33 with 1 start in his age 33 season and got $12 mil for that start.

Clemens was #7 age 30-36 was wow thanks to 'suppliments'. 141 ERA+ 95-62 There is your best case by a mile.

So 7 pitchers, a couple of total disasters, all were elite at times (Clancy the weakest) pre 30. Only Key & Clemens were solid all 7 years from 30-36 and Key had one year with just 5 starts.

If I was Shapiro I'd also hesitate to give Price 7 @ $200. 5 years I'd consider but 7 is job risking as you know you'll eat 1 or 2 years unless he goes Roger Clemens.

Does that mean I'd go for JA Happ 3 @ $36? No, just that I'd avoid nutty 7 year deals.
jerjapan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:16 PM EST (#315919) #
Kasi, you can't use the going rate of WAR on the FA market to determine the value of a cost controlled talent like Santana.  The guy has performed worse by WAR in 3 of the 4 years since he signed the contract, presumably the years in which his WAR would increase, with his worst year being this past one and his Steamer prediction for next year being worse still.  He is already a diminishing asset, and clearly has depreciated since signing his extension - this is an objectively clear example of the problems with locking young talent up long-term. 

Is the significance of an error like this equivalent to a CC Sabathia type FA contract?  Heck no.  But it still represents a reduction in value for the team - if you want to insist that this model is the way to go (I could totally be convinced), you need to recognize when the philosophy fails - like with Santana.  Don't forget, he was signed as a catcher but has been played mostly at 1B for years, a position that he is mediocre at. 

And you can't just write off 'it sucks that Romero got injured'.  This is part of the risk of your strategy, just like an injury to Price is for the FA strategy. 

Romero's injury was not the problem, BTW - Steve Blass disease was.  

I'm going to 100% agree with you on the Cards - probably the model org in baseball this millenium - but worth noting that they traded young controllable talent / prospects for Heyward and Walden (a failed deal), Holliday, Lackey, Broxton and Moss. 

but the Giants?  Do you think the knew that Crawford and Duffy would break out?  They got lucky, like we did with Pillar.  They are not a good example of the type of philosophy you espouse - or do you suddenly like the Matt Cain and Hunter Pence contracts?  In fact, the Giants are a far better representation of what I'm saying is the best way to build a team - a variety of approaches, including drafting, trades, and FAs - than your approach of developing from within.  This is one of the bottom five - ten farm systems in the game, and they have held that position for a while. 

I am with you on Stroman as a worthy candidate to buy out the arb years with though. 

soupman - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 06:54 PM EST (#315920) #
John, I think Price is probably closer to Halladay/Clemens than any of the others on the list.

i agree that a 7 year deal probably starts looking bad at some point especially given that price was a college draft pick and is therefore already over 30, and relies on the hard stuff a lot...

that said, 5 years of a great-good price would be fine in my books, and i don't see how the jays solidify the rotation within house. other than martin and tulo, the team had no commitments past next year until signing estrada and happ. call me crazy, but those aren't the guys i'd lock up at market price. price is.
jerjapan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 07:00 PM EST (#315921) #
I'm with you Soupman, and your point seems even more compelling given Price's public stance that he'd like to return to the Jays and that he loves Toronto.

It's not irrelevant that we finally have an elite FA whose #1 choice (assuming we pony up) is Toronto. 

Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 07:05 PM EST (#315922) #
Even with the decrease in WAR since he signed Santana has been an immensely valuable contract. The rate now is over 7 WAR, and five years ago it was at about 6. That's why I averaged the number at 6.5. You're complaining that Santana didn't get better, and while it's sad he didn't, it didn't matter. The contract has been an absolute slam dunk win for them. Getting a 2.5 win player for 4 million a year is amazing. And to the other point older players get injured mor and cost more. Losing Romero but having to keep paying him didn't cripple us. If the same happened to Price it would.

The Giants got lucky because hey keep more of their prospects. Think of prospects like Scratch and Sniff Lotto at the local convenience store. The more of them you take the more you have a chance of getting the value back or hitting the jackpot. If you play the FA game you know what you get, but you never get it for under market price and you're buying into the downside of players careers.

How can they be one of the bottom five to ten systems in the game? Their entire infield was drafted by them. Every player drafted by them, every player over three war last year. You can sure grade them by what they still have in their farm, but them and the Cards have been awesome at turning draft picks into productive MLB players. The Jays, not so much, at least not for themselves.

And I never said don't trade or not sign FAs, but the ratio has to be different. I believe it was Mike Green who compared the cards against the Jays in.an earlier thread. Cards team was 50% from within, Jays were over 50% from trades. I think Jays numbers from within was about 20-25%. I also think FA model is pretty hard to do here due to all the barriers Jays have in signing free agents. (The country, the tax rate, the playing field, the hitters ballpark, the hitters division all being factors) The Giants indeed are a good approach to follow, it's just the Jays don't follow the Giants model. They trade a lot more and they develop quality players at a much worse rate. The model AA followed was the Yankees model of last decade. Why are we so happy to embrace a philosophy we derided for years. (And didn't actually work very well, most of their trades/FA acquisitions world out badly)
perlhack - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 07:29 PM EST (#315923) #
It was only 10 games, against poor opposition.
Look at it and despair:
...
7 wins against very bad teams.
1 win (with 9 runs of support) and 3 losses against good team.


In two games against St. Louis, he pitched 13 innings, gave up four hits and no walks, and didn't surrender a single run. The fact that the Pirates couldn't score in that second game (the team lost 3-0) isn't his fault. This is why we stopped using win-loss records as an indication of performance.

His only truly bad outing during his Pirates stint was hist first game against the Cubs. In his other loss to the Cubs, he gave up two runs. (See BBREF game logs for Happ.)
jerjapan - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 07:51 PM EST (#315924) #
Kasi, you continue to use FA market value / WAR to evaluate cost controlled players - who are inherently much cheaper than FAs.  You are simply misunderstanding the concept of the value of a win.

Free agents cost more than arb eligible players, and they cost a hell of a lot more than players in their first three years of team control.  You cannot compare these assets the way you are trying to compare them! 

Check this out, a good read on the subject:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost 

the Giants have ranked near the bottom in terms of farm systems for years - a product of poor drafting, trading prospects and lower draft position (a good problem).  They may keep more of their prospects than the Jays over the AA years, but they were inferior prospects in the opinion of, uhh, all the minor league observers out there. 

again, they got lucky with Crawford and Duffy.  These were not highly rated prospects!   it happens, and it's not proof that they have a superior developmental system. 
James W - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 08:58 PM EST (#315926) #
Why the need to diminish what Frisco has done by calling it lucky? How about a little credit to them for the job they've done with developing these players?
Kasi - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:21 PM EST (#315927) #
No I'm not jer. What I've been talking about is signing players to deals that take them out of their arb years (where yes they are Free Agents) and you can get big value on their contracts. Look at what the Angels have done with Trout or Tampa did with Longoria. Or Cleveland with Carrasco. Or again Tampa with Archer where they have options for year 2 and 3 of FA at an insanely low value.

As for the Giants I'm sure they're lucky. And we are unlucky because we have a bottom third contribution in WAR from our young players. :p They're so poor at drafting that they got multiple 3-5 WAR players out of their farm in the last two to three years. Of course they're not going to get a strongly ranked farm system. They've been winning all the time, getting low draft picks and promoting people to the majors to help them win multiple World Series.
pubster - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:47 PM EST (#315928) #
Initially I don't really like this trade, but then I think "Hey it's only 3 years".

He should at the very least give the Jays only 4 SP spots to worry about and gives the Jays both starting pitching depth and bullpen depth.

It's not nothing, but maybe a bit pricey (no pun intended).
pubster - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 09:49 PM EST (#315929) #
Whoops...replace "trade" with "signing" in my post above.
John Northey - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 10:10 PM EST (#315930) #
Well, Stieb was elite and should've had 2 or 3 Cy's but voters back then were win addicts. Still if you are Shapiro and you just started here with a promise to make the Jays super-profitable would you push a 7 year $30 mil per deal for a pitcher or would you go cheap and try to keep the team good enough to reach playoffs. Remember, you have to write off the last 2 years of that 7 year deal as Clemens/Randy Johnson (169 ERA+ overall, 200+ IP all but two years, one being 1994) is not a regular or expected thing.

So is Price worth $200 over 5 ($40 per)? That is the real question as odds are against the last 2 years being worth much. Fangraphs says he was worth that each of the last 2 years, but would you want your career to be based on him keeping that up for 5 more years? Like the rest of us, I'd love him to come back but realistically I don't see it. There is space in the rotation potentially as one can always trade a starter but wooboy. Stroman-Dickey-Estrada-Happ-Chavez isn't a rotation that fills me with confidence. I'd prefer Chavez moved to 6th man, add Price (or equivalent) to the front and then the Jays have the depth and quality needed to go deep into the post-season. If not that then please go nuts on offense and get a star for LF or 1B. Ideally Alex Gordon so it is an upgrade on defense as well.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 10:12 PM EST (#315931) #
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/quick-hits-free-agents-blue-jays-hendriks.html

...the Blue Jays will continue pursuing starting pitching, interim GM Tony LaCava says,...

No matter what anyone else's personal opinion is, this is the Official Word (or as Official as it gets). That's good news.
pubster - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:02 PM EST (#315932) #
Another thought...

Based on Lacava's first couple of moves, I don't think any of AA's trades/signings would have been rejected.
Vulg - Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 11:17 PM EST (#315933) #
Why the need to diminish what Frisco has done by calling it lucky? How about a little credit to them for the job they've done with developing these players?

I'm a huge fan of what SF has done, striking a nice balance in terms of how they've built and kept together their team. You know what's been a big part of that equation? Commitment from ownership in terms of willingness to spend on payroll during a prolonged playoff window.

This has been their team salary progression in the last few years:

2011 - $128,386,167 (7th)
2012 - $130,784,082 (8th)
2013 - $141,153,527 (7th)
2014 - $178,318,112 (3rd)
2015 - $187,088,630 (3rd)

We can debate the prudence of the previous regime in terms of how the Jays got to this point and 'sustainability', but the fact remains the team is in the middle of such a window right now. We're all painfully aware of how fleeting these opportunities can be.

This is why I bristle when guys like Wilner throw out quips like "look at the Royals rotation last season". Really? That's our bar? We've seen the potential of the market. I've got no problem with possible 3rd - 5th starters like Happ and Chavez filling in the rotation, but when it's all said and done and spring training rolls around, I'm going to be very disappointed if payroll isn't in the $160M+ range and another front end guy isn't in the mix.
soupman - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 12:29 AM EST (#315934) #
pubster,

if the guy is even in the rotation by mid-summer' which, i think, is the floor happ has, then 3 years is a long time.

if this time next year he's totally out of the picture the jays are going to have $13 million per year of dead money for him. it's not a huge amount, but it might be enough to prevent them from locking up stroman long-term, or might be used to justify why the team can't maintain payroll, or why bautista/edwin's raises aren't in the budget, for example.

John Northey - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 12:31 AM EST (#315935) #
If the Jays move to the AL Central then we can compare rotations but the fact of the matter is the AL Central is a heck of a lot easier to win in than the AL East. Outside of KC everyone in that division had 83 or fewer wins. Based on runs for/against the Royals should've won 90 games, still plenty for that division.

In the East the Yankees had 87 wins The Jays should've won 102 based on runs for/against.

If you use SRS which is supposed to balance out scheduling etc. you get the Jays #1 with 1.6, Houston 0.9, NYY 0.8, KC 0.7, then Blatimore & Tampa before you get a 2nd team from the central (Cleveland) then Texas, then Boston to finish the AL East.

I just hope this is purely building backups. Next year the lineup will have Martin/Tulo/Pillar/Bautista/Encarnacion for a full season and we know 2B will be Travis & Goins hopefully more Travis than Goins.

Then pen will be more solid with Osuna & Sanchez from day one it appears plus Cecil rather than Castro being the closer for a month.

The rotation hopefully will have Stroman all year and a lot less Hutchison who might be moved to the pen. Estrada will be there all year. But no Buehrle which hurts outside of late September/playoffs.

There are good and bad stuff with this new team. I suspect Osuna & Sanchez will be given chances to earn the 5th slot in the rotation with a slight chance of one or both being sent to AAA if others take over in the pen.

Right now I suspect the Jays are hunting hard for relievers to allow Osuna and/or Sanchez to be starting depth in AAA. Hopefully they'll get a few good AAAA starters to give emergency depth too.
John Northey - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 12:40 AM EST (#315936) #
FYI: I wouldn't be surprised if Mark Lowe is brought back. Gibbons clearly trusted him in September with 4 games over 2 for Leverage Index, and another 4 over 1.2. Only 4 were sub 0.5 and 1 was just below 1. Only 1 high leverage in the playoffs then 5 low leverage so maybe not tons of trust, of course he leaned hard on Sanchez/Osuna/Cecil (until Cecil got hurt).

Jonathan Broxton might be a good one to chase after - made $9 mil last year and St Louis bought out his option year (was for $9 mil) for $2 mil. Not a closer anymore but has been before. 10.3 K/9 lifetime over 9 last year after 4 years in the 7's. Could be a potential closer/setup.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 02:40 AM EST (#315937) #
hilariously, for the 3rd signing in a row, our fangraphs team depth chart war projection has gone down.

$42m and we've gotten worse.

Spifficus - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 03:11 AM EST (#315938) #
That must have been one heck of a pitcher Happ bumped off the list, considering they have him projected at 2.2 wins in 155 innings. Stroman is the only starter projected better, at 3.5 in 203. I would think that adding an above average player would make things go up and not down, especially when it's replacing blank space. Well, I suppose not blank space, technically, but replacing 155 innings from other starters... all of which with a worse WAR rate except Stroman. In fact, only Stroman, Osuna and Cecil rate better per inning than Happ, and he's not taking innings away from any of those three.

In other words, if it did drop after this signing, I'm thinking there's something else at play.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 03:21 AM EST (#315939) #
Fangraphs can go with worse case scenario.

How do you evaluate Marco Estrada? First 8-10 weeks he's #5 Starter. Next 8-10 weeks he's a Mid-Rotation Starter. The last 6-8 weeks plus Postseason he a Front-Line Starter.

How do you evaluate Jesse Chavez? He's seldom as effective after 15-18 Starts, generally running out of gas before season end.

How do you evaluate J.A. Happ? Who's the real Happ, in Pittsburgh or pre-Pittsburgh? Does the changes he made stick?

How do you evaluate Russell Martin? For someone who must pitch on the edges, like the above three, Russell can do wonders; with a big-arm power pitcher, not so much.
Michael - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 03:29 AM EST (#315940) #
For everyone lauding the giants ways, note the seven year starting pitcher deal they signed with cycle young winner Barry Zito. There were more red flags on Zito than on Price, but that was a pretty awful contract for the Giants. The Giants also didn't learn to spend when they had the best player in a lifetime. An average team and Bonds would make the playoffs most years. Spend a little more with Bonds and dominate.
Glevin - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:02 AM EST (#315941) #
I don't think the Giants are a good organization to copy. They have had exceptional luck with winning the WS when they weren't the best team as well as having prospects that weren't highly regarded turning into very good major leaguers. The one thing I would take for them is that the most important thing in baseball now is to make the playoffs and once you are there, anything can happen. The best organization in baseball in my mind is the Cardinals. They are able to build around young talent, they don't overpay for free agents, and make generally shrewd trades. Whenever their core is aging, they seem to be able to replace it.

Overall, while there are obviously better and worse organizations I think there really aren't the horribly run organizations there were a decade ago. (Except maybe the Padres. What the hell are they doing?) Everyone uses a balance of sabermetrics and scouting. The over-hyped value that being a veteran player once had (experience, clubhouse, etc...) is not there anymore. That said, it is telling that I think in all of MLB, only the Tigers are trying to build a core around aging players with long-term contracts. Even teams like the Yankees and Dodgers who have tons of money are generally moving away from this model.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:38 AM EST (#315942) #
Well if LaCava is going after another Starter, it won't be some with a Qualifying Offer. Those available without it: 1)David Price, LHP; 8)Johnny Cueto, RHP; 12)Mike Leake, RHP; 14) Kenta Maeda, RHP; 18) Scott Kazmir, LHP; and Unrated: Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, Tim Lincecum. They only cost just money.

Unless he's going to sign another Free Agent, LaCava will need to make a trade. Unfortunately, that easier said than done because who can they trade? Shapiro won't be happy trading anyone.

Some way, some how, the Jays need to acquire a Front-Line Starter who can be a #1 or a #2 Starter. They can't put it all on Stroman, he might get hurt or run out of gas.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 09:15 AM EST (#315944) #
Could the Jays sign Scott Kazmir?
pubster - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 09:45 AM EST (#315945) #
If Happ is totally out of the picture (like Romero) then obviously 3 years 36 mil is too much for him.

I'm hoping he can be a solid #4 starter.

If I remember correctly, when he was in Toronto last he would alternate between pitching terrible games and throwing gems.
Mike Green - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 11:10 AM EST (#315946) #
cycle young winner Barry Zito

Ah, the joys of auto-correct.  It is a good idea to cycle when you are young so that you will have the durability of Cy Young when you are older.

Maybe it is a good time to think about the pitching staff as a whole, as it stands now.  Work with me.  Imagine a rotation of Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Dickey and Chavez.  A bullpen of Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Loup, Hutchison, Girodo and Jenkins or Tepera.   Osuna and Cecil have been almost as good against LHB and RHB, whereas Sanchez has huge platoon splits. Ideally in the modern arrangement, you have Cecil for the 8th and Osuna for the 9th and try to get Sanchez to face mostly right-hand batters with Loup around for the lefties in the 7th.  Speaking of which, the players I expect to contribute more to the Blue Jays in 2016 than each did in 2015 are Stroman, Pompey, Osuna, Sanchez, Hutchison and Loup. With 4 of them in the bullpen, I see it as a strength of the 2016 club.

The date for tendering contracts to arb-eligibles is coming up this week on December 2.  The only question mark, to my mind, is Saunders, but in light of the circumstances of his injury, I expect him to be tendered.  Shapiro has been quite clear about the need for improvement of the spring training facilities.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 11:17 AM EST (#315947) #
Above it is suggested (I think) that Fangraphs can be hilarious if it is suggesting that by adding the 8th best WAR on the team, the team was somehow made worse.

Baseball Reference can be pretty hilarious too, as this tweet this morning shows. I'd like to see their list for rightfielders.
jensan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 11:29 AM EST (#315948) #
Yes I hope so, but I believe a trade of Pillar plus Colabello+ Harris for Salazar + Allen, Than a trade of Dickey can be made.

Stroman, Estrada, Salazar, Kazimir, Happ with Hutchison and Chavez as your swing pitchers. Though I prefer Leake due to his GB% or Zimmerman over Kazmir.

If the one trade with Cleveland does occur, than another signing of a SP- FA is reasonable to overhaul the whole of the SP and RP.

Than all would be required is a backup catcher.
jerjapan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 11:51 AM EST (#315949) #
Maybe it is a good time to think about the pitching staff as a whole

I think you are right Mike, it could be a strong pen next year if the staff shapes up the way you suggest.  I'd add Delebar (he's out of options next year), Blake McFarland and Beau Schultz to the list of potential relievers.  Jenkins also needs to make the team or go through waivers.  It won't be Todd redmond, he's back with the Orioles. 

It's been a slow offseason all over thus far, but the rule v and the arb deadline should start to break the logjam, at least for depth players - I'm surprised how slow we've been on that front given the vast desert that is the AAA starting rotation.  We still have plenty of space on the 40 man. 

As for arbitration, is Kawasaki eligible?  I don't see him on MLB trade rumours, nor Darwin Barney - who I can't imagine gets tendered. 


John Northey - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 12:09 PM EST (#315950) #
Lincecum is a very interesting name on that no QO list. Guess it would depend on what the Jays pro scouts say has been his issue and can he be effective going forward. His last 4 years have an ERA+ of 75 over 615 IP, 4.08 FIP, 3.9 BB/9 8.4 SO/9 1.0 HR/9 clearly it is control that has been the big issue with 4.5 BB/9 last year. I suspect he'll go to a non-contender who can afford to give him innings. He might be a good closer if limited to an inning throwing full bore though.
John Northey - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 12:18 PM EST (#315951) #
Kawasaki I think has an agreement to be put out as a free agent after each contract ends so he is available to whoever wants him right now. He seems to love it here so I suspect a AAA deal will be signed again. Decent depth player but that is all. Darwin Barney choose to be a free agent when the Jays outrighted him to AAA.

I'm sure we'll see a few of these minor transactions post rule 5 draft. Jenkins I suspect will be sent down in late spring as the Jays try to sneak him down to AAA.

FYI: Tigers To Sign Jordan Zimmermann based on MLBTR. Years and dollars not public yet - but probably around 6 years for $120+ mil.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 12:45 PM EST (#315952) #
I'm seeing on twitter the Tigers are sigining Zimmerman for 5 yrs, ~110M
dalimon5 - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 01:03 PM EST (#315953) #
Jensan, your video game trade proposal of Salazar and Allen for Pillar/Colabello is not going to happen, even if you add Harris. Please stop suggesting it here and at andrewstoeten.com

Salazar is close to Stroman in value and Allen I believe led the leaderboards in some key categories the last year and a half for relievers. Colabello is not valued as a 300+ avg player and even if he was he has no defensive value and is 30.

Pillar + for Salazar alone is more realistic, or Pompey/Harris for Carrasco or Kluber, in my opinion.

It was reported Pompey/Hoffman + didn't get Carrasc this trade deadline.
soupman - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 01:22 PM EST (#315954) #
i'd rather see them buy low on bauer (who they probably shouldn't because he's colby 2.0 on the coachability index, anecdotally) than lose multiple parts to buy high on salazar, for example.

i don't think carrasco has enough control left to warrant giving up that many years of potential useful pieces.

the jays are in a position where signing price costs only money. if this were an organization geared towards winning WS, they would get him no questions asked. it's frustrating that they aren't, and i think i can conclude, never will be. if the jays win a ws again, it will be inspite of payroll parameters.

i'm going to go grab a case of blue.
Glevin - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 01:41 PM EST (#315955) #
The Tigers are in win now and then be bad for about 5 years mode. Let's say Zimmerman is 5/110 and evenly spread, the Tigers will owe him, Cabrera, Victor, Sanchez, and Verlander around $114M (add in Kinsler and it's $125M) combined in 2017 and without Sanchez $98M in 2018 (When JD Martinez is a free agent). A lot of this is down to Illitch wanting to win now at all costs but the Tigers had a very nice window to win (2011-2014) and are now trying to hold on with an declining and extremely expensive core.

Mylegacy - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 01:41 PM EST (#315956) #
Estrada/Happ and the new Moneyball?

I say - YES - and in this article I'm announcing my "New Moneyball Call!" (so there, na, na, na, na na.) (Is na even a word? Na, I don't think so).

We all know ('cause we saw it all last year) that Estrada was throwing more "up in the zone." We also know that he's said (and I paraphrase) "...because most pitchers are throwing down, to avoid HR's, batters have actually been changing their swing to be able to cover so many low pitches. By pitching (with command and control) up in the zone I'm able to take advantage of the NEW high strike zone - created by the automatic pitch location indicators which have exposed just how poorly Umps were NOT calling high strikes that were legitimate strikes..."

Now - after reading about 600 articles on "Happ's Happy Time in Pittsburgh" (is it even possible to be happy in Pittsburgh?) - I now realize that Happ has - basically - re-invented himself as a left handed Estrada. His re-invention is: pitching with a more disciplined release point, with command and control, high in the zone.

IF - I'm correct (Ya I know - given MY record that is highly unlikely) the Jay's MAY have pulled a Billy Beane and discovered the "New Moneyball." This could mean that Estrada and Happ are set to lead the Jays to THREE consecutive World Series Wins! Could happen, could Happ-en... perhaps...


scottt - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 01:52 PM EST (#315957) #
Let's not forget that Happ is 33. This is a bit like signing Price for 6 years and skipping the 3 best years.
One good year is all we need, right?


uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 02:09 PM EST (#315958) #
yep.

the same people fretting about having martin under contract to age 36, tulo until 35, and potentially price to 37, are now arguing that signing Happ until age 36 - and only for the oldest years - is "low risk".
SK in NJ - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 02:57 PM EST (#315959) #
Except that Price will make slightly less at age 37 (seven years from now) than Happ will make at age 33-35 combined (assuming Price gets around $30M AAV). I don't know why people can't seem to understand the cost associated with Price is too large for where the Jays budget is projected currently and likely in the future. The Jays were not going to spend $200+M on one starter over seven years and have no depth around in case something went wrong. Even if the great AA stayed on, he would not have been able to do it with this ownership group.

If you look at projected $/WAR, Happ's deal even if he remains "J.A. Happ" is fair. If whatever he changed in Pittsburgh adds a bit to his skill level, then it's likely a great value deal. He's been trending upwards in terms of velocity as well so it's not like age is against him at the moment. In reality, if Happ gives the team a 4-5 WAR over three years, which is completely reasonable to expect from him if he stays healthy, then assuming the value of a win is around $8M, he would have earned the contract. Yes, it's a value deal, not a "OMG superstar!" deal, but that's the direction the club feels is best given where they are in 2016 and the situation they'll have to work around in 2017.

I know most fans prefer hype over substance in the off-season (hence why people loved the 2013 off-season despite the value sinkhole it turned out to be) but some times the boring route is the logical way to go.

We can only wait and see if it works out. Like I said, I'm fine with it. Based on everything I've read, and based on Shapiro's history in Cleveland, this management team values the right things. Whether it leads to the ultimate goal is the issue, and as I mentioned above, we can only wait and see on that one.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 03:13 PM EST (#315960) #
the same people fretting about having martin under contract to age 36, tulo until 35, and potentially price to 37, are now arguing that signing Happ until age 36 - and only for the oldest years - is "low risk".

It seems to me that the "Flags Fly Forever' folk have forgotten last year's slogan. I thought the spirit behind 'Flags Fly Forever' was 'don't worry about the future cost because a pennant flag will fly forever and be worth the future loss.' But it turns out what was meant instead was 'don't worry about plundering the farm system this year, because next year we'll just expect Rogers to plunder its shareholders instead'. Now that the minor league pitching vault has been emptied, some of it for 6 weeks of a starter and some of it for a shortstop past his 'best serve by' years, there is next to nothing in the minors to trade. The Blue Jays have more limited revenue than big market teams. Their tickets cost less than half the price of Red Sox tickets, and less than the major league average. Moreover, there are no 'missing millions' in broadcast revenue for Rogers to turn over. The Blue Jays already pay twice their gate receipts in player salaries. However much some fans appear indignant that the Blue Jays will not pay a pitcher approximately $300 million CDN or more to pitch here (if he would at all), about three years' gate receipts on his own, it's not going to happen.The question isn't whether an expense like that by a publicly traded corporation's directors, unsupported by revenue, would be justifiable. The question is more whether it would be actionable.
jerjapan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 03:54 PM EST (#315961) #
Actionable?  That's a tad hyperbolic ....

I didn't realize that the Jays tickets were lower than the major league average, and as a consistent critic of Rogers, I'll happily acknowledge that that is a fan-friendly truth. 

But the Jays have plenty of revenue - we aren't talking Yankees / Dodgers / Sox, but we should certainly be able to compete with the second tier.  The accounting techniques used to demonstrate that Rogers loses money on the Jays have been debated enough that I think most people agree that the team remains a valuable property for Rogers- the franchise has increased in value 7 fold since Rogers bought it, the Dome was purchased for a song, the team provides value to other properties owned by Rogers and as noted in the Globe article below, there is an emerging younger generation of fans coming out to games - the impact of the 2013 and 2015 pushes drives merchandise and ticket sales, but it also attracts lifelong fans.  Winning is profitable!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-success-reaping-big-profitable-rewards-for-rogers/article26640038/

As for 'flags fly forever' I'm one of those types, and I haven't forgotten anything - it's a straw man to suggest that those of us in favour of the trades were naive to the financial implications, and it was NOT a given that payroll would be held even or reduced. 

I knew we were giving up a premium for a playoff run - a risk which worked, provided tremendous entertainment to the fans, boosted revenues both short and long-term.  Yes it has left us with holes.  But the horde your prospects and avoid long-term contracts strategy has risk too. 

Chances are we will contend for the playoffs again next year, and it's entirely possible that this team will remain competitive past 2016.  We can't say that Tulo is a given to be overpaid, and Price might have been the difference maker in millions of dollars of playoff revenue. 

I guess there will always be fans that are just as happy to follow the minors and enjoy shrewd business management - perhaps you guys can follow the Rays or the As to scratch that itch.  But I just don't get the hate for the most exciting 3 months in 2 decades of Jays history.  Why defend Rogers over the fans / customers?  What fun is that? 

uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:02 PM EST (#315962) #
"Now that the minor league pitching vault has been emptied,"

and again, the young pitching we have in house is better and more mlb ready than the young pitching we "plundered" last year.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:08 PM EST (#315963) #
"If you look at projected $/WAR, Happ's deal even if he remains "J.A. Happ" is fair."

imo, paying market value for 1-2 war players is a sucker's game. even paying half market value (i.e. 2war revere for $7m) isn't ideal.

any gm with skills should be able to find those players for cheap.

pay for the elite 4-5+ win players, rely on your gm skills to fill in the gaps for cheap.
Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:08 PM EST (#315964) #
We are second tier. Our 140-150 million payroll is at the bottom of the top ten in baseball. That's quite good. The difference between us and the A's and Rays is we can be responsible but still spend money on trades and FAs. Like the Cards, a team with almost the same payroll as us.
Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:16 PM EST (#315965) #
Thats pretty debatable. We traded about half of our minor league pitching prospects last year. Whether the half we have left is better than than the half we kept is yet to be seen. We certainly traded all the ones who could have played in the majors this year. I don't count Sanchez and Stoman since both were in the majors before last year, but even if you include Osuna I can't say the half we have left is better than what we let go.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:21 PM EST (#315966) #
22yr old Sanchez was much better as an SP than 22yr old Norris last year.

24yr old Hutch was much better as an SP than 24yr old Boyd last year.

20yr old Osuna was much better as an RP ghan 20yr old Casrro was last year.

20yr old Greene waa better in A+ and only slightly worse in AA than 22yr old Hoffman was last year.

and then there's 24yr old Stroman.
scottt - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:23 PM EST (#315967) #
This is Maple Leafs style management.

The logical way is to sign the best players available.
Having too many good players signed on long contract is never a problem. You just trade one when you have a prospect knocking on the door.

Maybe Roy Halladay was the reason the team sucked so much because his long contract kept the team from bidding on those marginal players with accidentally high projected WAR?

Your goal is to have an average team every year. The goal should be to win a championship.

We've had Happ here before and logic dictates that he will be worse at age 33-35 than at age 29-31   because that's what happens most all the time. Pitching in Pittsburgh in September is like hitting in New Vegas. It's such a huge overpay.

Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:27 PM EST (#315968) #
I don't care much about playing time in such short sample sizes. We will have to come back in 2-3 years to see who is making an impact in the majors. Will Hutch regain 2014 form? Can Sanchez get an out pitch and fix platoon issues? Will Norris develop and recover from his injury? Can Hoffman regain the amazing arm action that had some project him as number one overall pick? Can Castro harness his stuff? Will Osuna be converted to a starter? We don't know the answer to any of those yet, but comebydean is right, the farm was emptied of pitching talent, especially that close to the majors. Whether we kept the right guys will be seen over the next few years.
Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:30 PM EST (#315969) #
Ahh yes, sign all the best players possible. Shame this isn't a video game and we don't have unlimited money, but great idea, let's just sign all the best FA talent. Of course that takes 20-30 million for each player. I'll let you work out the logistics.
ogator - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:40 PM EST (#315970) #
I don't really understand the argument that says we still have excellent pitching talent in our farm system so we shouldn't miss the guys we traded away. Maybe we have prospects. Maybe we don't. We traded away many, many pitching prospects. (why list them all?-there were many and we traded them because other organizations wanted those specific prospects) We don't have those guys any more. Our farm system took a very serious hit. What's the point of pretending those guys don't matter. Of course, they do.
Jonny German - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:45 PM EST (#315971) #
There's a very good article by Josh Howsam at Blue Jays Plus detailing the changes Happ made in Pittsburgh. I still feel like the Jays are gambling an awful lot of dollars on him, but I'm feeling more hopeful about his upside.
Jonny German - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:47 PM EST (#315972) #
The date for tendering contracts to arb-eligibles is coming up this week on December 2. The only question mark, to my mind, is Saunders

Interesting. I think Saunders projected salary is low enough that they definitely keep him around. But I do see Thole as a question mark, and Delabar as a clear goner.

I could see the Jays playing hardball with Thole. His value is very much tied to Dickey, as a free agent he’d have to choose between being the backup in Toronto or likely spending the entire year in the minors for some other team. So the Jays might decide to cut him and re-sign for $1M rather than the close to $2M he’d get in arbitration. They did this with Smoak last year.

Whatever was working for Delabar his first season and a half in Toronto seems to have disappeared in the last 2 seasons. Better for both parties if he moves on.
Glevin - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 04:49 PM EST (#315973) #
"I guess there will always be fans that are just as happy to follow the minors and enjoy shrewd business management - perhaps you guys can follow the Rays or the As to scratch that itch. "

Talk about strawman arguments. It's not all or nothing versus following the minors. It's wanting the Jays to build a solid foundation where they can compete every year. (Think Jays in 80's and early 90's) The second half of last year were the most exciting times in over 20 years but it doesn't mask that this team is not solidly built. We went all-in for it last year and it was a great ride but you can't keep doing that because at some point, it catches up to you and you end up being an awful team for years because of it.
finch - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:00 PM EST (#315974) #

I don't think we have traded "all" our minor league arms; gents, we have so many good ones on the way as well!

Connor Greene

Sean Reid-Foley

Matt Smoral

Jon Harris

Angel Perdomo

Adonys Cardona

Clinton Hollon

Tom Robson

 

Aside from Greene, I really like Hollon, especially. The movement he gets on his pitches is crazy. Not a bad season considering his TJ surgery. I expect him to move fairly quickly, up to AA, this year.

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:23 PM EST (#315976) #
Actionable? That's a tad hyperbolic

That's a fair comment. Still, I think you'd agree that the League of the Perpetually Indignant tend to ignore all reality in the belief that they're having their dreams stolen by a business whose fault isn't really that its a 'bad corporation' so much as it's a business at all. The Rogers folk are not spending their own money. They are publicly traded. They cannot throw the money of others on a hope and prayer and a whim at whatever makes the LOPI upset every off-season. It's not their money that they are entrusted with. There used to be a time when companies like Nortel could under-report losses, hoodwink investors and walk. Those times are by and large gone.

I didn't realize that the Jays tickets were lower than the major league average, and as a consistent critic of Rogers, I'll happily acknowledge that that is a fan-friendly truth.

It's a reflection of the Toronto market. One of the things some of us learn with age is to accept that someone else probably knows their own business better than we do. I suspect the Blue Jays have a pretty good idea of price-point for baseball tickets in the Toronto market, and the low price levels set aren't intended as much to be fan-friendly as they are a reflection of how much they can charge and still get people to come to the games.

The accounting techniques used to demonstrate that Rogers loses money on the Jays have been debated enough that I think most people agree that the team remains a valuable property for Rogers- the franchise has increased in value 7 fold since Rogers bought it, the Dome was purchased for a song, the team provides value to other properties owned by Rogers

I don't think there's much room for debate. Major league baseball owners are a greedy bunch. They have to pay money for revenue sharing and luxury tax to other teams and they're not going to pay a cent they don't have to. They hire very clever people, who went to very good schools, to make sure that they're not getting bilked by other owners. Gate revenues are largely public domain. We can figure out roughly how much the Red Sox take in at the gate, for example, in a year they finished last, how much the Blue Jays took in at the gate in a year they finished first, and see that the former is twice the latter.

One source of confusion is that Rogers owns the Jays and broadcasts their games. Many teams do not have what has been termed 'arms length' broadcast relationships. They create RSN's, or they own their broadcaster, or they are owned by a broadcaster. This is not some Toronto anomaly, and as much as it appears to be the source of mistrust and confusion for even mainstream Toronto fans, other owners will insist on 'fair market value' reporting. The notion that some scam exists solely in Toronto, which has been detected on fan boards but goes over the head of the best accountants and auditors of mlb, Forbes, Bloomberg etc. is, to be kind, a bit far-fetched. It's also far-fetched to claim that broadcasts which were losing money at $150k per game a few short years ago, when Rogers didn't even bother to broadcast 10% of the games because of the cost, and which usually trail in audience a semi-pro football league with a $5 mill. per team salary cap, are now worth some hidden fortune. You only need to look at the back to back Rogers product ads to see the amount of unsold advertising time.

As for the price Rogers paid for the RC, it was a higher price than anyone else was willing to pay on the open market. Those who feel that they paid for a white elephant through tax funds should speak to the politicians who spent their money in the first place.

And I don't know where the 7-fold increase comes from, but if it's method of valuation where there is no differentiation between the value of teams that are owned by a broadcaster and those which themselves own a broadcaster, I think that's hard to support.

At the end of the day, the Blue Jays have a top ten payroll in what is not a top ten market. I don't have any personal interest in boosting Rogers but I can't feel reasonably hard done by at all. I don't think a team that's pulling in most of its revenue in 75 cent dollars, owned by a publicly traded corporation which takes in most of its revenue in 75 cent dollars, is going to spend hundreds of millions of those dollars that can't be supported in any fashion by the revenue stream. I agree with you that the Blue Jays have a value to Rogers beyond revenue stream though, and anyone who has been to a bar and asked for a game to be turned on only to see the server turn on TSN, can see that the Sportsnet brand benefits from having a regular content source. But there are still limits.
bpoz - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:32 PM EST (#315977) #
Thanks finch for the list of prospects. I have been waiting for our top 30 prospects list for a few weeks now. We are probably not doing that this year.

That is OK, because we have a list on the Jays site. As well UO and others have their own personal list.

I miss the chatter about the prospects. I do not care if a guy is ranked 8th, 12th or 22nd. They move up, down and off. I have my favorites, as do most others. We get to discuss their stuff and other qualities.
finch - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:42 PM EST (#315978) #
I'm sure there will be a prospect list on this site. I would expect it be to early in the new year, when most prospect lists get generated.
SK in NJ - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:42 PM EST (#315979) #
"pay for the elite 4-5+ win players, rely on your gm skills to fill in the gaps for cheap."


It's not as easy as you make it sound. Deals like the Josh Donaldson trade are very, very rare. The other deals AA made to get what he thought could be 4-5 win players is far more realistic in terms of how difficult it is (trading a Brinks truck worth of high valued prospects in the Miami/Mets deals, absorbing $100M of Tulo's deal in addition to giving up his top pitching prospect + more, giving Martin more years/money than any other team, etc).

The Jays did not want to trade any top prospects after the system was ravaged in trades from 2013-15, and clearly Shapiro believes in "diversifying the risk" (his exact words) with the pitching staff due to lack of overall depth. This was the direction that made the most sense. If you double down and throw even more money for short-term gain, then you run the risk of being the Tigers or Phillies. That's playing with fire.
soupman - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:46 PM EST (#315980) #
my risk tolerance for a team that will never invest X% above revenue to move to the next level is approaching zero.

i became a jays fan in the late 80s, and still expect the team to run a tight organizational ship, scout well, and spend whatever was necessary.

i find that my geographic loyalties are now in conflict with my desire to have my good faith, and spending power rewarded in kind. i think at some point you can't let your emotional attachment get exploited...it's just bad business.

John Northey - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 06:16 PM EST (#315981) #
OK - I hate to say this and wouldn't think I'd need to but to claim Toronto isn't a top 10 market is insane - I have no other word for it. TV viewership pre-August was up there with anyone in the majors and after August was higher than any 2 other clubs. The stadium sold every seat it had. The market in/around Toronto is larger in population than the market in/around all but NY, Chicago and LA and all 3 of those are split markets. The potential TV audience is over 30 million - or the population of California which supports 5 teams. To say that isn't a top 10 market, or at least a potential top 10 requires such a drastic reduction of fan support due to border issues that it blows my mind.

Now, the drop in the dollar is an obvious issue. When our dollar was at $1.10 US it was a lot better for the Jays of course, But even if you take 100% of their revenue in Canadian dollars (which it isn't) you'd drop by around 30% so from $140 mil to around $100 mil. for payroll. But with attendance & TV revenue (not to mention playoff revenue) growing fast you can justify keeping it around the $140 mark. That also is taking the peak that lasted about 24 hours rather than the more likely figure Rogers would use, which would be around 95 cents (they'd be foolish to have counted on above par) in which case it dropped around 20% thus less of a case for a payroll drop.

Now, I have no problem with not signing Price - I'd love it if he stayed but can accept not risking $200 mil on a pitcher. But if the Jays try to move to 15th or so in payroll I'll be annoyed.
Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 06:18 PM EST (#315982) #
Soupman Rogers did do that when they raised payroll from 100 to 140 million over the last three years. That wasn't good enough for you? Or you want another bump? When does that end? CBDC laid out some very good points that Toronto has hit the limit of what they can raise it to.
dalimon5 - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 06:24 PM EST (#315983) #
Some people need to pinch themselves. Rogers doesn't care if you have been a fan for 20+ years. They're glad you don't have a ballpark pass because they can now sell your old seat for more money. Why would they not?

My tickets are nearly 10k for the year and if the Jays went for broke and won the World Series, only to turn into the Phillies in the next few years, I would then not renew my tickets (I don't want to see a losing team). On the other hand, if they don't win the series but are a winning team (playoffs or not) then I will keep my tickets year after year. Shapiro, I believe, came to Toronto because it is easier to maintain that competitiveness here than in Cleveland, with an increase to go the extra mile (World Series) when near the finish line.

If Rogers will appeal to emotion of fans at all, it will be the ones that affect their bottom line the hardest. Im not speaking to anyone here directly, but how easy it must be for fans watching on TV with no commitment financially to the team to complain that they want an open air stadium (try going to April/March games) and increased expenses which, quite clearly, will likely hamstring the team down the road.

With all due respect, I don't care about the fans that question their commitment to the team when they aren't committing anything more than their time. Most of the fans in my section seem pretty happy with the direction of the team.

All said, however, Shapiro arrived into a situation where he is "near the finish line." If he chooses to reset and build a winner his way from scratch then he's not gaining any fans. But, if he can get the extra piece (#2 pitcher or higher) for this year then he will succeed in keeping this next year alive while not mortgaging the competitiveness of future teams, imho. David Price won't fill those two needs, a Carrasco type trade or Samardzidjdjskjxkdhdhdjws signing might.

"Spending power rewarded" and "emotional attachment exploited" ...This last month on here really defines the term "First World Problems."
jerjapan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 06:53 PM EST (#315984) #
"the League of the Perpetually Indignant"

Ha CBDC, love this phrase. 

I certainly don't think there is some sort of conspiracy, although I get that you are articulating an argument against the LOPI, but I do think that it's quite typical for companies like Rogers to report their earnings in whatever method makes the most sense to them.  Nothing illegal, but like you say, owners are a greedy bunch (publicly traded or not). 

For sure the largest obstacle to Rogers spending the way many of us think they should spend is the dollar - a unique challenge indeed, although it doesn't seem to affect the Raptors or the Leafs?  Hard salary caps change the dynamics for sure, but I just don't have the economic background to understand how legit a challenge that is, or how significant the benefits to the Sportsnet brand are ...

I do think we are going to see an increase in ticket prices going forward because we finally have an exciting, competitive team, and a new generation of fans coming up ... there is value to Rogers in investing in product, and I agree with John Northey that we are already a top ten market -with perhaps some untapped potential as 'Canada's team'. 

The sad truth is that Dalimon5 is right - Rogers doesn't care much about fans whose actions don't impact their bottom line.  If all the seasons tickets holders stopped showing up, that will get their attention - but if we get upset on the Box?  not so much.

That said though, I do think that Rogers hasn't got the slightest idea how to grow the market they have.  There is an educated, stats-inclined younger fanbase that is supporting the team more and more, in addition to the long-term supporters.  Baseball  needs younger fans - that 25-39 demographic that everyone is after.  We had the ideal GM for that fan base, but tone-deaf Rogers blew the opportunity to work with AA and alienated some of the core fans that drives interest with the average person.  Sure, they may not have a ten grand season's ticket packages, but they are typical of the engaged younger demographic - hosting gatherings around the Jays, organizing outings to the Dome, and in general spiking interest in the team in the people around them. 

The passionate fan who may not have loads of money to spend should be more valuable to Rogers than they seem to be - and those fans know this. 
Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 07:15 PM EST (#315985) #
I doubt fans give a shit who the GM of the team is. They care about the product on the field. If the team is winning the fans will come. They're not going to come because AA is some baseball savant. That will be entirely what Shapiro and LaCava are judged on, how good the product on the field is and how many games they win. The average young fan isn't perusing fangraphs and baseball prospectus. The one thing I'll give you is they do likely care about big splashy deals, since those generate excitement. But they only generate excitement if they lead to winning. Aka the beginning of 2013, or Clemens in the 90s when they made the deals but didn't win the fans quickly abandoned them.

I think CBDC makes some good points that Toronto is a very casual fanbase. They can get big crowds when winning, but when not they'll not come or only come because the tickets have been very cheap. Aka fair weather fans, which makes it a hard thing to rely on as sustainable income and worth going up another 40 million in payroll.
Gerry - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 07:16 PM EST (#315986) #
I know that Keith Law is not everyones favourite. Today he analysed the Zimmerman and Happ deals. I know several people here thought Zimmerman would be a good buy. Law's opinion is that Zimmerman's stuff was down this year and he believes Detroit is buying into the start of Zimmermans decline phase.

He had the same opinion on the Happ deal as many here and wonders if that deal was too risky, in that expecting three years of Happ that are similar to his last two months is a big gamble.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 07:23 PM EST (#315987) #
All initial reports have the Zimmermann contract at 5 years and about $21.0 Million per year. That's an exceptionally good contract. That last Starter the Jays are acquiring needs to be exceptional, if they've missed out on this for any reason.

Getting multiple pitching bargains for the Rotation isn't always a good thing. Estrada was staying, his words, if he had to accept the Q.O. to do so. Spending $11.5 MM instead of $15.8 is just good business. Spending $13.0 MM on Happ rather than $21.0 - $22.0 MM on a Zimermann. That's dumpster diving, not good business. I like Happ, I just think we can do better.
Dave Till - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 07:54 PM EST (#315988) #

The Rogers folk are not spending their own money. They are publicly traded. They cannot throw the money of others on a hope and prayer and a whim at whatever makes the LOPI upset every off-season. It's not their money that they are entrusted with.

I was looking at the list of MLB owners on Wikipedia, and I noticed something: most teams aren't owned by a corporation - they're listed as owned by a single person (though this person might be a front man for an ownership group). These teams aren't throwing shareholders' money at baseball players, as a corporation such as Rogers is - their primary business is baseball, so it's their own money they're spending (or wasting). They don't have to answer to anybody but themselves.

Of course, there's no guarantee that a team owner will be the sort of benevolent patriarch who is happy to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to bring glory to the city in which they live. The last time that a Toronto sports team had a single owner, it was the Leafs under Harold Ballard, and you probably recall how that turned out.

Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 07:57 PM EST (#315989) #
Well the Tigers and their approach can likely be attributed to the desperation of Ilitch to win a championship. He knows he has very few years left, so he keeps throwing money at it and trying to buy a title.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:04 PM EST (#315990) #
"It's not as easy as you make it sound. "

no it's not easy, but we had a GM who could do it.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:06 PM EST (#315991) #
I'm not jealous of the zimmerman deal but it's better than what we did.
soupman - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:22 PM EST (#315992) #
i guess money doesn't buy you a clue. i'm not directing that at anyone in particular.
SK in NJ - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:28 PM EST (#315993) #
"no it's not easy, but we had a GM who could do it."


And other than when acquiring Josh Donaldson, that GM basically obliterated his farm system and spent hundreds of millions of dollars in his quest to do it, and still lost tons of value in the process (MIA/NYM trades).

Like I said, it's not easy. I thought AA did some good things when he took chances (namely Russell Martin), but Shapiro clearly does not have the payroll flexibility to do such things nor the prospect capital that he feels he can afford to lose.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:33 PM EST (#315994) #
no, that GM left the team with a very moderate payroll with zero bad contracts, and a very solid group of young players and prospects.
uglyone - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:37 PM EST (#315995) #
Shapiro has spent $42m thi.s offseason. that's already more payroll flexibility than any jays GM has ever had.

can we please keep our arguments grounded in reality at least?
James W - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:37 PM EST (#315996) #
Spending $13.0 MM on Happ rather than $21.0 - $22.0 MM on a Zimermann.

Try to remember that Jordan Zimmermann has some say in the matter.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:47 PM EST (#315997) #
Going by ratings the Jays have more people watching their games than most teams in MLB, but they get a fraction of the money that other teams do. Are Canadian eyes worth that much less than American ones?
James W - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:59 PM EST (#315998) #
Well it depends what the team wants to charge the broadcaster. Or maybe it depends on what the broadcaster wants to offer to the team for broadcast rights. Off the top of my head, I don't know any other franchises where the team and the broadcaster are one and the same. Rogers-the-broadcaster sure looks great getting all this cheap must-see content. Rogers-the-baseball-owner continues to look like ....

As an aside, the Yankees get $1.5 billion over 30 years, signed in 2012.
Texas gets between $1.5 and $1.6 billion over 20 years, signed in 2010.
The Angels get $3 billion over 20 years, signed in 2011.
Dodgers: $7 billion over 25 years. (And that's all I care to look up.)
SK in NJ - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 09:11 PM EST (#315999) #
"Shapiro has spent $42m thi.s offseason. that's already more payroll flexibility than any jays GM has ever had."


Your problem is that you're thinking like Alex Anthopoulous. The world doesn't end after 2016. You still have to have a payroll in 2017, 2018, 2019, etc, etc, etc. You still have to spend money after 2016 to fix whatever holes emerge. Flexibility is not a one year thing. Remember when AA made all those moves in 2013, and then the following season the only move he could afford to make within his budget was Navarro for $3M? That's what flexibility means. If you honestly believe this team had the flexibility to add a David Price level contract (which is what you keep harping on), and on top of that re-sign Bautista and Edwin after this season to free agent money (something which you've repeatedly said would the right move despite their age), then I'm not sure what to tell you. That's not "grounded in reality", if anything.

I also don't know where you're getting $42M from, unless you're assuming that declining Dickey's option was a realistic proposition for a team with 2 SP's in MLB and AAA combined entering the off-season. They've spent $22M (Estrada + Happ) in 2016, and then whatever Chavez gets in arbitration (~$4.7M). Hardly the type of jump in player salaries or payroll that AA got from 2012 to 2013-15.

Of course all of us would prefer signing a 4-5 WAR player. However, look at the free agent market. Look at the trade market combined with the team's prospect base. Unless you think every GM is going to hand the Jays an MVP for .50 cents on the dollar, it's simply not a very realistic avenue for the team at this moment. Maybe that changes next year if/when Bautista/Edwin leave, and they need to replace those wins with elite talent rather than "value signings". At that point the team's payroll structure will look different, and their strategy of team building might also change. Their current strategy works for their current roster make-up.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 09:33 PM EST (#316000) #
Yes, I realize Zimmermann has a choice. It also depends on what your offer is. In Texas, he'll be the #3 Starter. In Toronto, he's the Ace. He has a much better Defense and a top-rated Offense in Toronto. Would asking him what he wants be too much?

Why him or someone like him? They'd have an interchangeable #1 and #2 Starters. If one gets hurt, they still have one. Stroman can grow into the #1 position, not be forced into it because no one else is good enough. Another question is how many innings can they force Stroman to pitch? And I say force because their options are nonexistent.
jerjapan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:02 PM EST (#316001) #
I doubt fans give a shit who the GM of the team is.

I'm not suggesting that fans won't come because AA left.  I suggesting that AA left because of some of the same obliviousness within Rogers ownership that runs the risk of alienating - or perhaps simply not engaging - passionate younger fans (not a value judgement, I'm just differentiating this group - who might also support the Raps, for example - from the dyed in the wool lifers).   have you listened to sports radio, or read anything other than the box?   You do recall fans chanting their thanks for AA during the stretch drive no doubt?  Unprecedented.  I'll bet you right now that nobody every chants Shapiro's name, and that's no dis on Shapiro.  AA was part of the magic of the stretch drive, and even casual fans knew the 'local boy wonder makes good' narrative.  What is baseball if not storytelling?  It's a romantic freakin' sport, mythology is far from irrelevant.     

Also, it's more than a bit insulting to call Toronto fans 'fair weather'.  What are people supposed to do, continue to passionately support a team that hasn't played meaningful stretch drive ball in 20 years?  It's not as if this is the typical up and down of a sports franchise - the blue jays had the longest active playoff drought in major NA sports until this year.   The Dome is a mediocre venue.  It's often closed during nice weather.  Food and drink is expensive and mundane.  They had a microwbrew for what, one year, before going back to corporate fare?  We are supposed to blindly support this?  Heck, i could support an idiot Harold Ballard type owner over a faceless corporation that the majority of Canadians dislike. 

A final point - I teach high school, and some of my students are bigtime sports fans, or athletes themselves.  This younger generation absolutely do


Mike Green - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:07 PM EST (#316002) #
According to Heyman on twitter, Lacava and Ross Atkins (vp for player development in Cleveland) are the two names under consideration by Shapiro for the GM job.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:11 PM EST (#316003) #
Some points to consider:
In the Hendriks - Chavez deal, LaCava traded their 5th best Reliever for a Starting Pitcher! For any Starting Pitcher is a good deal

RF Bautista ($14.0), 1B/DH Encarnacion ($10.0), KNB Dickey ($12.0), RHP Chavez ($4.7), LF Saunders ($2.9) LHP Cecil ($3.4) and 1B Smoak ($2.0) are Free Agents after the 2016 season. That clears about $49.0 Million in Salary. I don't know who gets resigned, but it's possible no one does. Resigning Cecil ($4.0) and possibly Bautista ($20.0); plus, Arby increases ($15.0) only leave $10.0 Million available for further needs.

When the Team Owners and the Broadcast Rights Owners are one and the same, having a Budget is ludicrous. Fair Market Value has Broadcast Rights for all Blue Jays Games is about $100.0 Million. Last known figure for Broadcasts right had them paying $35.0 Million. That's why talking about lost revenue and budget are immaterial.
jerjapan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:21 PM EST (#316004) #
Ross Atkins has been rumoured for a while ... does anyone have a sense of him as a candidate?  would compensation be required? 
Parker - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:27 PM EST (#316005) #
Shapiro has spent $42m thi.s offseason. that's already more payroll flexibility than any jays GM has ever had.

can we please keep our arguments grounded in reality at least?


Uh, speaking of reality, isn't $12M of your $42M from picking up an option on a player who made the same money last year, and another $25M that came off the books when Buehrle left? Price departing vacated a prorated $8M or so, too... how much is Shapiro adding to the payroll, again?
jensan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:35 PM EST (#316006) #
If Jays non tender or trade for prospects: Dickey, Thole, Revere and Delabar and signs Price on a 6 year contract commencing at 25 Million a year increasing by $1 Million per annum.
Or in the alternative sign Mike Leake for 5/80 years and trade for Pillar for Salazar, and than keep Revere, and trade for prospects or non tender Dickey, Thole and Delabar, that brings the Payroll total to $137 MM and a 3 year contract for Madson at 3/15 increasing at $1 Million per year, The Blue Jays payroll is $141 MM and requires a backup catcher.
Last point MLB has ruled that the Washington Nationals Regional TV share had a value of $60 MM with its dispute with MASN. The court through out this ruling, in the Jays case the value is presently $51 MM USD. Jays receive over $100 MM USD in revenue from MLB Central just like every other team in baseball.

This does not include the TBJ revenue attribution for Regional Share of TV mentioned above. Additionally the average ticket price for 2016 net of taxes will be $37($28 USD) excluding box seats.

The revenue for tickets and a mixture of ancillary revenues as determined works out to $53 X 3 MM in attendance $160 MM USD plus the $100 MM USD from MLB Central plus the Regional share of TV (2/3) that Rogers attributes. Total this number up, and the Revenue side for 2016 is approx. $290 MM plus box seats and corporate sponsorship.
jerjapan - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:38 PM EST (#316007) #
Uglyone is right - Shapiro has spent $42 million this offseason.  Exercising an option is an expenditure, and Buehrle has nothing to do with that.  Ugly's not talking about adding to existing payroll, he's talking about spending. 

Don't get me wrong - I've been arguing for that option all summer, even when Dickey looked like he might be done.  But Ugly's math is fine. 

Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 10:57 PM EST (#316008) #
If you recall I live in Texas. So no I don't get the local experience. I'm a transplanted Calgarian. Sure I can understand losing the Canadian boy, but you didn't say that before. You talked about losing the stats minded fan. Well guess what Shapiro is recognized across the industry for being amongst the best at that and analytics. One of his former protoges, Huntington is considered one of the best GMs in all of baseball. I don't think Shapiro comes up short at all to any comparison to AA in that, nor in accolades for the work he has done. Plus like I said the average fan cares nothing about AA's approach. They just want to have a winning team.

You also make some good points about the stadium. You should be happy to have Shapiro who did a fantastic job on renovations and upgrades in Cleveland, a role that AA wanted nothing to do with. (He repeatedly said he just wanted to do baseball ops) Look SK is right, AA got handed two amazing players from JP in Jose and EE and very smartly signed them to great contracts. Those moves banked probably 200+ million in value, and except for the last three months he didn't make capital of it.

His early trades failed and his bargain pitching acquisitions didn't work. I do think he was getting better but he's left this team hamstrung for the next couple years. The only way to fill pitching holes now is by signing FA, and he left payroll with not enough room to get all these sexy players you guys want without having any hope of depth of surviving an injury.
Kasi - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 11:01 PM EST (#316009) #
Jensan please be realistic with your deals. You seriously think we get Price for 6/165? Try 7/210 at a minimum starting point. Same with Leake, that's too low, think 5/90 minimum. No way Pillar gets Salazar.
Nigel - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 11:47 PM EST (#316010) #
Last 4 seasons combined - Leake 7.4 fWAR; Happ 7.2 fWAR. Happ lost half a year in there to injury as well. If Leake is getting the salary that people think he is then Happ was quite the steal! I think people need to see Leake for what he is, a league average starter.
jensan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:06 AM EST (#316011) #
Kasi,
Don't believe that Price will sign for 6/165, because he will be offered a 7th year pushing 200 MM similar to Scherzer.

Leake , for $2 MM more per annum is not a major difference.

I disagree with you about Pillar for Salazar, and I think I am realistic. Both players are controlled for similar years except Salazar is into arbitration earlier.

CF is a major defensive position and a 4.3 War by Pillar, strongly due to Defensive ability enhances his talent. Puig is more talented than Pillar but Cleveland does not want a head case
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:14 AM EST (#316012) #
"Uh, speaking of reality, isn't $12M of your $42M from picking up an option on a player who made the same money last year, and another $25M that came off the books when Buehrle left? Price departing vacated a prorated $8M or so, too... how much is Shapiro adding to the payroll, again?"

you are correct - AA left Shapiro with so much payroll flexibility that he has been able to already spend $42m this offseason while barely increasing payroll.

amazing amount of flexibility for a team as good as the jays were.
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:21 AM EST (#316013) #
"Your problem is that you're thinking like Alex Anthopoulous. The world doesn't end after 2016. You still have to have a payroll in 2017, 2018, 2019, etc, etc, etc. "

I'm not sure what problem there is.

AA left shapiro with only 2 contract committments after this coming season.

only TWO CONTRACTS.

(and both of them to stud performers at the 2 positions most difficult to replace no less!)

that is an extraordinary amount of payroll flexibilty for any team, let alone one of the best rosters in baseball.

TWO CONTRACTS committed to beyond shapiro's FIRST SEASON. that is a GM's dream.
Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:24 AM EST (#316014) #
Indeed, and since there was only two starting pitchers combined between AAA & MLB roster they need to fill a lot of holes. Hence why money was spent on Dickey, Estrada, Happ and Chavez. You could get Price and a Dickey, but that doesn't make a viable rotation.
Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:27 AM EST (#316015) #
Two commitments, but then again this commitments omit Donaldson, Jose and EE. That's not one of the best rosters in baseball anymore with those guys gone. Plus Donaldson is still under arb, so still a commitment.
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:30 AM EST (#316016) #
Leake is a 28yr old who averages near 200ip per year with better than average numbers across the board. 6.3ip per start over his entire career. his fip (and thus fwar) is the outlier when compared with all of his era xfip and siera. He has spent his entire career safely in the rotation aside from when he first broke into thd league. The definition of a solid low risk dependable mid rotation innings eater.

33yr old Happ has averaged 140ip per year, and a career best 172ip, in his career and a paltry 5.7ip per start, with below average numbers across the board. He has spent his entire career battling for a #5 spot and usually losing the battle and ending up with stints in the bullpen and minors and then traded.
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:34 AM EST (#316017) #
"Two commitments, but then again this commitments omit Donaldson, Jose and EE. That's not one of the best rosters in baseball anymore with those guys gone. Plus Donaldson is still under arb, so still a commitment."

TWO committments past his first season as GM.

an absolutely tremendous amount of payroll flexibility. all the room in the world to build the team in his own image.

but you make a good point - AA did screw him badly with an MVP with 3yrs of club control. poor shap.
Vulg - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:46 AM EST (#316018) #
I was looking at the list of MLB owners on Wikipedia, and I noticed something: most teams aren't owned by a corporation - they're listed as owned by a single person (though this person might be a front man for an ownership group). These teams aren't throwing shareholders' money at baseball players, as a corporation such as Rogers is - their primary business is baseball, so it's their own money they're spending (or wasting). They don't have to answer to anybody but themselves.

Of course, there's no guarantee that a team owner will be the sort of benevolent patriarch who is happy to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to bring glory to the city in which they live. The last time that a Toronto sports team had a single owner, it was the Leafs under Harold Ballard, and you probably recall how that turned out.


While it is true that a corporation such as Rogers is accountable to shareholders, they are also a cable and media company as well as the team owner. There are MASSIVE benefits to being in a position where they can match team expenses (namely player $$) against revenues. They also bought the Skydome for $25M (stadium debt can be a large part of ownership's ledger).

They are in a unique position to cash in on a market that is only surpassed by NY and LA in terms of revenue potential.

While I didn't expect their own media personalities to question spending on a Championship-caliber team at its peak, I was hoping for more from other media sources. I suppose we'll have to wait and see if they truly end up at $140M and go from there.

Side note - this is what I use for team salary data: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2015/
Glevin - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:53 AM EST (#316019) #
"an absolutely tremendous amount of payroll flexibility. all the room in the world to build the team in his own image."

No payroll flexibility at all because they had so many positions to fill. After the season, the Jays literally only had Stroman and Hutchison as starting pitchers. Considering Stroman hasn't pitched a full season combined in his career and Hutchison was awful last year, the Jays needed at least 4 more starters but even that is not enough because the Jays have no depth. Because the Jays went all-in last year, Sanchez and Osuna were not stretched out to be starters and Norris and Castro were traded. If you want to make Sanchez and Osuna starters, you are very likely going to have to send them to the minors (Certainly with Osuna). If you did that, you would need to replace them with two back-end bullpen guys which also means more FA money.

If you think Hutchison is fine as a #6 guy, the Jays still needed to find around 120-125 starts (30 for Stroman, 7-12 for Hutchison) for next season. The Jays re-signed Estrada, picked up Dickey's option, got Chavez in a trade, and signed Happ. That's still likely not enough depth and that's around $40M for this season which is not all that expensive for 3-4 starters.
Richard S.S. - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 03:24 AM EST (#316020) #
Never complain about what A.A. did for this Team. My only issue was with Paul Beeston and his stupid 5-year policy. It's my belief that if he doesn't veto A.A.'s contract with Anibal Sanchez, the Miami and New York trades don't happen. He was after two Starters and a Big Bat that offseason and got screwed. If he gets Sanchez, he won't need Josh Johnson (and everything else) from Miami.
greenfrog - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:08 AM EST (#316021) #
Plus, if the Jays waited around for Price or Greinke, a lot of their backup starting pitching options would likely have signed elsewhere, leaving the team high and dry if Price and Greinke signed elsewhere (as history suggests they will). I think Shapiro is taking the right approach.
pubster - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:19 AM EST (#316022) #
Is Zimmerman a good pitcher? Better than Happ?

He didn't seem to have a great season last year.

His season last year at the dome I think would have translated into a 4+ era.

Last year Happ had a lower era than Zimmerman despite throwing most of his innings in the AL.
85bluejay - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:20 AM EST (#316023) #
FWIW, Happ signed for more than the various FA predictions & the baseball media has been generally negative about the signing, saying the Jays put too much stock in his 2 month Pittsburgh success - only time will tell.

Jon Heyman amongst others is saying that Shapiro is expected to name his new GM(really assistant GM)before next Monday's GM meetings - I hope it's not a retread, LaCava would be OK.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:25 AM EST (#316024) #
The sad truth is that Dalimon5 is right - Rogers doesn't care much about fans whose actions don't impact their bottom line. If all the seasons tickets holders stopped showing up, that will get their attention - but if we get upset on the Box? not so much.

Sad truth? Isn't it obvious (perhaps everywhere except Toronto) that a company's customers are those who actually pay for its products? Why on earth would Rogers or the Blue Jays pay a moment's attention to the wishes of those who believe in their entitlement to baseball for free; who don't buy tickets or merchandise, and whose fan 'loyalty' consists largely of arguing about statistics on the internet and whining in perpetuity because the Blue Jays don't spend money the team doesn't have so they can watch a better team for free?

The "sad truth" if there is one, is the firmly held belief that the Blue Jays and Rogers should be catering to those who aren't customers, who don't affect the bottom line, and who are simply peripheral to the market.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:27 AM EST (#316025) #
My only issue was with Paul Beeston and his stupid 5-year policy. It's my belief that if he doesn't veto A.A.'s contract with Anibal Sanchez

What on Earth are you on about? What "contract with Anibal Sanchez" did Paul Beeston veto?
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:35 AM EST (#316026) #
With Happ vs Zimmerman, it is Happ plus $8 mil a year vs Zimmerman with 2 less years of risk.

On a pure baseball level...
Zimmerman: Pure NL'er, saw HR/9 jump last year, 4.15 ERA from July 1st to end of year.

JA Happ: Mixed AL/NL, 103 ERA+ NL/88 ERA+ AL, July 1st to end 3.34 ERA, 1.85 after trade to contender (Aug/Sept) team lost wild card so he didn't get to pitch in post-season.

So for the 2nd half Zimmerman was drastically outpitched by Happ, not likely to continue but a troubling sign for the Tigers new star, and a good sign for the Jays.
Mike Green - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:35 AM EST (#316027) #
The current Blue Jay situation reminds me some of the Atlanta Braves situation in the early 90s.  Ted Turner had TBS and branded the club "America's team".  With shrewd management from John Schuerholz, they won the division for a couple of years, and then opened the vaults for Greg Maddux.  That year, the Braves had the second highest payroll in baseball behind Toronto. They continued having one of the top four payrolls in baseball for the next 7 years. 
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:44 AM EST (#316028) #
Anibal Sanchez - $16 mil a year for 2 more years after a 4.99 ERA last year 79 ERA+, 4.73 FIP. Yeah in 2013 he'd have helped a lot but unless it was him or Dickey then it wouldn't have helped the Jays much and even then only in the respect of still having the prospects we lost, not in the respect of making playoffs this year or the next 2 years.
hypobole - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 09:52 AM EST (#316029) #
"FWIW, Happ signed for more than the various FA predictions"

As much as some are in denial about Toronto having to pay a premium to sign free agents it's a fact.

There are players who would not even consider Toronto as a destination. Buehrle admitted that last year. It would be naive to think there haven't been others, maybe plenty of others. How many is anyone's guess.

Santana was another example, signing with Atlanta for the same money the Jays had offered him. And AA spoke last offseason about trying to sign a free agent who had been asking for x amount of dollars, but wanted x plus to sign with the Jays.

Agents are fully aware of this, and know they can squeeze more out of Toronto, if the Jays really want their player.
Jevant - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 09:52 AM EST (#316030) #
I find too many of the retrospective views on AA little more than hagiography. What do you think he would have done? Signed Price to a 3 year $10M contract? Traded for Sonny Gray while giving up nothing? His history of acquiring starting pitchers was not good which is why we started last year with Drew Hutchison as the opening day starter. The Jays were not going to commit to long-term expensive signings of pitchers which is the right move. Whether or not they could have done better than Happ is definitely a question worth asking, but inserting some other false option whereby the Jays get a top starter is not a real alternative. Indeed.
Jevant - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 09:54 AM EST (#316031) #
Everyone does remember that we didn't really get anything better than "passable" starts out of any of our arms in the postseason rotation other than Estrada/Dickey, right? And we were a blown call away from playing a G7. Sorta. Still bitter.
Dave Till - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:00 AM EST (#316032) #

Isn't it obvious (perhaps everywhere except Toronto) that a company's customers are those who actually pay for its products?

My significant other and I just bought a flex pack for 2016, so I am officially a customer. I am now entitled to complain all I want. Boo-yah! :-) (Perhaps, in Rogers' eyes, I don't count as a customer unless I buy season tickets or a luxury box or something. Just as, technically, I am a bank "customer" when I open an account there, but am not exactly important to them.)

While it is true that a corporation such as Rogers is accountable to shareholders, they are also a cable and media company as well as the team owner. There are MASSIVE benefits to being in a position where they can match team expenses (namely player $$) against revenues.

If they know what they're doing, they've probably got some smart people with spreadsheets who have calculated the expenditure level that will yield maximum profits. Sadly, this expenditure level might not be the same as that required to bring home a pennant (this is a flaw in baseball's business model).

On the other hand, there might be one or more people in Rogers' chain of command whose instinct is to say "no" to greater expenditures if there is any risk at all of the expenditures not bringing the expected results - and, in baseball, there is always this risk. Ask the owners of the Washington Nationals, for example.

As a fan, it is frustrating: Rogers has enough money to buy three David Prices and write it off as a rounding error in their financial statements. But, as CBDC points out, it's not our money, it's theirs.

Mike Green - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:06 AM EST (#316033) #
But, as CBDC points out, it's not our money, it's theirs.

Ted Turner would have a few choice words for Rogers. The Disney version of those words would be: "Gentlemen [it may be 2015 but there are still no women at this table], we have a monopoly and we have managed to make a mess of it. "
Jevant - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:15 AM EST (#316035) #
There's been lots of suggestion that Beeston veto'd a deal with Anibal Sanchez when Sanchez was an FA and ultimately signed with the Tigers.
Jevant - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:22 AM EST (#316036) #
I'm not sure I'm all that interested in paying for a soft-tossing RHP who doesn't strike anyone out, and paying that person double what Happ is making.

Would I have liked Price back? Of course. Would I prefer to diversify a bit? Absolutely.

The Jays rotation when from "2 passable options" to "6 passable options" in a short window here in the offseason, and that's without using Sanchez/Osuna in the rotation, and not signing any pitcher for a contract longer than 3 years. I actually think that's pretty tidy work.
Jevant - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:25 AM EST (#316037) #
Sure, Shapiro could remake the Jays after 2016, but he'd be doing so without a cheap EE or Jose in his back pocket. Donaldson/Tulo/Martin will be costing between 50-60 in 2017. That's a lot of change to guys who will be playing their 31/33/34 seasons that year.
pubster - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:41 AM EST (#316038) #
But isn't Beeston veto-ing the deal a good thing?

Like don't we look back on that and say "Good thing he had that policy otherwise we'd be stuck with Sanchez?"
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:08 AM EST (#316039) #
"No payroll flexibility at all because they had so many positions to fill."

oh fer chrissakes.

he inherited one of the best rosters in baseball, with a very affordable payroll, and only 2 committments past his first year.

he had one area on his roster to worry about, the rotation, and four good to very good young arms with mlb experience to hell fill it, including one near lock of a stud, as well as at least $42m in payroll.

yes, he had the huge concern of maybe being able to afford only one of the two bats that were impending free agents in 2017, in which case the poor GM would be forced into the awful position of actually having to be resourceful and creative enough to come up with one fricken good DH bat for a little less than full free agent price. poor shapiro.
Parker - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:13 AM EST (#316040) #
The Jays rotation went from "2 passable options" to "6 passable options" in a short window here in the offseason, and that's without using Sanchez/Osuna in the rotation, and not signing any pitcher for a contract longer than 3 years. I actually think that's pretty tidy work.

I'm starting to come around on this as well. If nobody from the projected rotation gets hurt or disappoints, that's actually a decently solid rotation. What I think is more noteworthy though is the front office isn't now announcing that all the holes are filled; rather that they're still looking to add arms to the rotation and bullpen. In the past few years, the team's depth other than in the middle infield has worried me, and the new regime appears to place high value on depth so far.

Chavez/Happ/Estrada/Dickey will probably provide more total value than Price and two or three ML-minimum giant question mark starters, especially when there isn't anyone in the minors knocking on the door for 2016. Those two or three other rotation pieces would have to be huge rolls of the dice; gambling on their success seems as risky as gambling on the value (or acceptable cost) of a Price signing in the first place.
Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:14 AM EST (#316041) #
He didn't have 4 very good young arms to fill it with. Osuna even if he gets transitioned would be on extreme innings limits, Sanchez is not a starter, Hutch is a huge question mark and Stroman. That does not make a good rotation. They needed to build depth back to 6-7 starters quickly, which meant they had to sign multiple starters to fill the holes. There was no way they could afford an expensive single solution like Price.
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:22 AM EST (#316042) #
I wonder how the new crew feels about fast promotions. Last years Osuna/Castro promotions were shockers. Knowing you have a payroll that can pay for kids as they grow up in the system will Shapiro be willing to do fast promotions too? How good will he be at it? JPR showed poor judgement (Snider), AA a mix (poor with Pompey & Norris, good with Osuna, meh with Castro). That is probably the hardest part of the job - knowing when a kid is ready for the majors. Leave them down too long and you might miss some great years or have them regress. Too soon and they might flop and never recover (Snider).
JB21 - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:35 AM EST (#316043) #
John, how can you be sure that just because a player didn't turn out the GM showed poor judgement? Or vice versa? I don't think it's much of a science at this point and time with much data to backup any claims of too soon or too late.
hypobole - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:40 AM EST (#316044) #
"Leave them down too long and you might miss some great years or have them regress."

Not sure I agree. I think faster promotions to the majors make players and especially their agents happy. You gave plenty of examples of fast promotions, but how many examples are there of players (Jays or other teams) promoted too slowly who seemed to suffer as a result?
jerjapan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:03 PM EST (#316045) #
hypobole, I think the general concern with leaving young pitchers in the minors too long is not that it stunts their development - a hugely difficult thing to prove anyway - it's that their arms could fall off.  We can assume that Osuna got to the bigs three years ahead of schedule by taking the reliever fast track - if he's injured in that 3rd year we get no value, even if he was thoroughly 'developing' into a front of the rotation starter. 

sure, if they struggle at the big league level you are using a year of control to obtain those poor outings - wait in the minors till they are firing on all cylinders and you get the best of their career.  hard to say which approach is best overall, but I'd say that Osuna was certainly a homerun - he gets the big league coaching / nutrition / teammates to learn from, and he wasn't going to pitch more innings than he did anyway.  heck, the aggressive promotion of Castro likely made him more tradeable as well.  Time will tell if we blew it with Pompey. 

Kasi, there are still lots of observers who think Sanchez might be a front of rotation starter.  The last few years have raised concerns about that - he's certainly not a better prospect than Thor at this point (BTW - wouldn't the Dickey deal look fine if it was Sanchez?) - but to state definitely that he's not a starter seems overly certain - yes, he needs to work on the secondary stuff, but it's not like he doesn't have the weapons, projectability or physique to handle starting.  The dude only turned 23 this summer. 

pubster - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:12 PM EST (#316046) #
Sanchez had an era of 3.55 as a starter in the AL East.

If he could keep that up over 150+ innings (a big if) he could be an elite starter no?

Probably an all star in the NL East.
jerjapan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:13 PM EST (#316047) #
Sad truth? Isn't it obvious (perhaps everywhere except Toronto) that a company's customers are those who actually pay for its products? Why on earth would Rogers or the Blue Jays pay a moment's attention to the wishes of those who believe in their entitlement to baseball for free; who don't buy tickets or merchandise, and whose fan 'loyalty' consists largely of arguing about statistics on the internet and whining in perpetuity because the Blue Jays don't spend money the team doesn't have so they can watch a better team for free?

CBDC, I was agreeing with you there and even in that case your answer is pretty harsh - good thing I didn't disagree ...

So obviously the college roommates who get a cable package to watch the Jays, or the casual fan that goes to the pub with his friends to watch the games and buys beers, may not be contributing as much as season's ticket holders, but they are certainly as vital to the fan base - and hence to Roger's bottom line.  Where does the rowdy atmosphere of the stadium come from - the expensive seats?  Toronto season tickets holders are a pretty conservative bunch, and many of the tickets are corporate - just look at the empty platinum seats for the Leafs.

what captures future fans is excitement - the young kids who get to the odd game that their young family can afford, the teens who nerd out at school every day about the game the night before, the frat boys starting the wave in the 500s.  every team needs a variety of fans, broke or big spenders.

I can't say this definitely but I'd guess that pretty much every poster on the box has Jays merch in their house and has been to a variety of games.  I certainly go when I can afford it.  
Mike Green - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:24 PM EST (#316048) #
Bill James ran a study many years ago about rookie performance and career results.  One result of the study was that rookies of age 22 who had comparable performance to rookies of age 24 had much longer careers with much higher peaks.  Many or most of the data points were in the era before arbitration/free agency.  My sense was that the 22 year olds were simply better players and being able to perform at a major league level at age 22 was indicative of more talent than being able to perform at the same level at age 24.  Teams then had no incentive to keep a rookie who was ready to perform down.  Now they do.

I ran a study of rookies age 24-25 with an OPS+ between 95 and 110 and 100 games played or more during the years 1990-2015.  I ended up with 11 names including Quilvio Veras, Pat Listach, Kevin Mench, Warren Morris, Brennan Boesch, Kevin Orie, Bob Smith, Adam LaRoche,  Matt Holiday, Ian Kinsler and Jeff Kent (you gotta keep reading 'til the end!).  The last 3 made excellent progress, LaRoche did well and a couple of the others had some kind of career.  When I ran the same study for 22-23 year olds, I did end up with better names- 17 of them including Pat Burrell, Robinson Cano, Travis Lee, Mark Reynolds, Jason Kendall, Chad Curtis, Russell Martin, Gordon Beckham, Nick Franklin, Brent Gates, Mark Teixeira, Nick Markakis, Josh Barfield, Odubel Herrera, Rafael Furcal, Austin Jackson and Eddie Rosario.  There were fewer blowouts, but I still think that there was some selection by talent going on. 

bpoz - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:38 PM EST (#316049) #
Thanks Mike Green. I had a sense about that. 22-23 year olds would do better. Generally that is.

The friday non tender for arb deadline.... Over the last few years were there many good bargains? I think we did quite well with J Smoak.
A Loup is elibable for arb as is Delabar. I always liked Loup but his arb value may be high. I really have no sense of how much Loup or the others all over should get.

Every team has a scouting dept. Lets hope ours finds something. That is if it is there.
SK in NJ - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:41 PM EST (#316050) #
"AA left shapiro with only 2 contract committments after this coming season."

That's not a good thing if the farm system is not churning out inexpensive talent to supplement the holes on the roster. Tulo and Martin making $40M combined, and Donaldson in arbitration making $20M (give or take) in 2017 is fine. But what about the rest of the roster? The team is one season away from no longer having the 8-10 WAR for $24M combo that Bautista and Encarnacion provided for years. That is a ton of surplus value that will cease to exist, and without any direct replacements on the roster or in the minors, it will require a lot of money to fix adequately (and it will likely cost more than the combined $24M). That's not even factoring the pitching staff that, as many have mentioned, only had 2 rotation options prior to the start of the off-season before Dickey's option was exercised. That costs money to fix, too.

No one is saying AA stuck Shapiro with a Vernon Wells contracts or anything. The point is, flexibility for this team would be an issue, especially if they signed Price or someone comparable. I wish the surplus value of Bautista/Donaldson/Edwin could last for many more years, but reality is it will last for only one (2016). After that, it will take a lot of money and/or creativity to keep the team at a playoff calibre level on the same payroll it has now, especially if they lost one or both of Bautista and Encarnacion.

Shapiro realizes he has a lot of surplus value in the offense/defense so he can afford to go the value/depth route in the rotation in 2016. That might, and probably will, change in 2017. We'll see if that works in '16, but I honestly don't know how anyone could have a major issue with the way this off-season has gone so far considering what the forecast looks like after 2016.
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:42 PM EST (#316051) #
"....whining in perpetuity because the Blue Jays don't spend money the team doesn't have so they can watch a better team for free?...."

That's not really what the fans are saying.  You're exaggerating the complaint to make it seem ridiculous.  The complaint, as I understand it, is actually this:  if Rogers invested an extra $20-million in payroll (boosting it from $138-million to $158-million, let's say), then the Jays could afford another "ace" level pitcher, and this would make it virtually certain that the Jays would reach the World Series in 2016 -- and this, in turn, would boost the team's revenue by more than $20-million (factoring in the higher television ratings, greater advertising and merchandising revenue, higher attendance, and the ability to boost ticket prices).  It would also solidify the long-term revenue situation for the Jays by creating excitement that would continue for years.  So it would probably be a profitable investment.  But because Rogers is a risk-averse corporation (and its shareholders are conservative-minded), the owners are unwilling to take the risk that the higher spending would lead to a World Series appearance.  So what we, the fans, are saying is this:  corporate growth depends on taking a few chances, abandoning a conservative strategy, and investing money in the long-term success of the company's assets.  This is in the owner's interests -- and our interests as fans too.

It doesn't help to portray the fans as selfish whiners.  There are legitimate grounds to suggest that everyone would benefit -- including the owners -- if the owners were willing to boost the payroll by 15% or so.
Glevin - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:50 PM EST (#316052) #
"Kasi, there are still lots of observers who think Sanchez might be a front of rotation starter."

If the Jays sent him to the minors and let him develop there, I think he could be as well. Not as likely as it was a year or two again, but possible. As for him starting this year? He has 21 minor league starts above A ball with not great results and way too many walks.

@pubster
No, a 3.55 ERA is not indicative of how Sanchez pitched as a starter last year. He had a 1.43 WHIP as a starter, a FIP of 5.21, an xFIP of 4.64. That's not to say he can't develop just that I would expect it to take some serious minor league seasoning.
Vulg - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:52 PM EST (#316053) #
Sanchez had an era of 3.55 as a starter in the AL East. If he could keep that up over 150+ innings (a big if) he could be an elite starter no?

He walked 37 and struck out 42 in his 66 innings as a starter, with 8 HRs allowed.

As a power pitcher with nasty natural movement on his fastball, it was an easy call to send him to the bullpen where he could rear back and just let it fly.

He'll need far better quality from his secondary pitches and (more importantly IMO) command of his fastball if he's going to survive the 2nd and 3rd time through lineups. He's young, maybe he'll figure it out.

Osuna, on the other hand ... that's a kid who I can see stepping in and being successful with his current makeup. My biggest concern with him would be endurance and whether he's completely recovered from TJ surgery in '13.
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 12:58 PM EST (#316054) #
"...The Jays rotation when from "2 passable options" to "6 passable options" in a short window here in the offseason, and that's without using Sanchez/Osuna in the rotation, and not signing any pitcher for a contract longer than 3 years. I actually think that's pretty tidy work...."

Fully agree with this.  Although I still believe the owners should invest more in payroll, I think LaCava and Shapiro have done a good job so far. 

I'm borrowing the following analysis from Andrew Stoeten, but I think it has some merit:  the Jays racked up a 30-9 record in 2015 from the date of the trade deadline until the date of Stroman's arrival, and that success was based on a rotation that isn't necessarily much stronger than what the Jays have today (even without the further additions that are quite possible in the remainder of the off-season).  In the current rotation, Stroman could be as good as Price (and certainly Stroman was better than Price in the playoffs);  Happ will probably be as good as the 2015 version of Buehrle (factoring in Buehrle's decline in August and September). Estrada and Dickey are still in place.  And given the horrible season that Hutch posted in 2015, the Jays can probably match that record with Chavez or with the 2016 version of Hutch.  So overall the rotation is arguably just about as good as it was during the August and September streak that brought the Jays into the playoffs.
 
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:04 PM EST (#316055) #
"....You should be happy to have Shapiro who did a fantastic job on renovations and upgrades in Cleveland, a role that AA wanted nothing to do with. (He repeatedly said he just wanted to do baseball ops)...."

Kasi, we understand that you dislike AA and Gibbons, and we understand that you reach for any bit of data to make your argument, but this is patently ridiculous.  It's the president's job to do renovations.  It's not the GM's job.  The GM does baseball operations, not stadium renovations.  Anthopoulos was the GM, not the president.  Beeston was in charge of stadium renovations, and now Beeston has been replaced by Shapiro.  You can't attack someone for failing to do something that isn't in their job description.  What's next -- attacking Gibbons for failing to sign David Price?
pubster - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:05 PM EST (#316056) #
Re: Sanchez

Good point about the peripheral stats.

In his last start however, he did throw 8 innings without a walk.

Actually in his last 4 starts, he threw 28 innings and only walked 8.

Obviously small sample size but there were signs that he was turning the corner.

If he didn't get injured he definitely would have made more starts and who knows what would have happened.
bpoz - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:07 PM EST (#316057) #
After the success of the 2015 teams 93 wins and a couple of flags the 2016 team has some expectations from the fan base.

For example 86 or 88 wins AND a WC berth would be better accepted than 89 wins and no WC berth. After that 1 game WC lost or WS champs.

If the 2016 outcome is bad then someone will have to take the fall.

2017 may not be as bad as some think. We only lose Dickey & Chavez from today's roster. There is a chance that the overall pitching in 2017 is better. Dickey may be like the NYY. For a long while the NYY seemed to defy old age.

Some of our 2015 successful youth were both young and not so young. Young Osuna and not so young Cola. There were about 4 others that had pretty good years.
hypobole - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:16 PM EST (#316058) #
"it's that their arms could fall off."

Arms don't fall off, but yeah, pitchers do get injured. Hutch was rushed and over a full pre-arb year of control, where players should provide surplus value to their organization, was lost. Was it better for the Jays he was on the major league roster when he had his TJ? I don't think so.
dalimon5 - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:41 PM EST (#316059) #
"....whining in perpetuity because the Blue Jays don't spend money the team doesn't have so they can watch a better team for free?...."

China Fan says...
"That's not really what the fans are saying. You're exaggerating the complaint to make it seem ridiculous. The complaint, as I understand it...It doesn't help to portray the fans as selfish whiners. There are legitimate grounds to suggest that everyone would benefit -- including the owners -- if the owners were willing to boost the payroll by 15% or so."

I don't think anybody is arguing that last point you make, CF, we're arguing with the posters that want to sever their ties with Rogers/Blue Jays if they don't increase payroll as if they are entitled to a return on their tiny investment. If you look through this entire thread you will see that there are in fact posts by fans suggesting this idea. CBDC is voicing the the ridiculousness of this, and it is ridiculous. If you don't like the product or return on your investment then cut ties, but don't pretend like you're being jerked around by a corporation that owes you anything.


Jerjapan...
"Where does the rowdy atmosphere of the stadium come from - the expensive seats? Toronto season tickets holders are a pretty conservative bunch, and many of the tickets are corporate - just look at the empty platinum seats for the Leafs."

If I can respond...Leafs platinum seats are over 50,000 for a pair. Blue Jays Season's tickets behind home plate are closer to 9,500. It breaks down to roughly 57$/game for 1 seat to go to a Blue Jays game. You're trying to compare apples and oranges, completely different.
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:49 PM EST (#316060) #
"He didn't have 4 very good young arms to fill it with. Osuna even if he gets transitioned would be on extreme innings limits,"

sorry, but their prospect pedigree, and mlb and milb perfomance disagree with your hot take.
jerjapan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:49 PM EST (#316061) #
Okay Hypobole, you don't like metaphors now? (jokes)

Hutch is a pretty good example of the danger of rushing a pitching prospect, agreed, although his minor league career was exemplary - in 2010/11 he literally got better at every level.  My main problem with that one was the 2012 team wasn't going to contend - a lousy lineup outside of EE, Jose and Lawrie, a lousy bench outside of 140 good ABs by David Cooper, a struggling Romero and Henderson Alvarez at the front of the rotation and a thin pen behind Jansenn and Oliver.

But Alvarez is also worth examining - 14 good not great starts in AA gets him promoted and he has now managed 92 solid big league starts.  He's also had 2 years wiped out by injuries and has 2 years of control left.  He's only 25 but could already be in a decline phase - Steamer pegs him at 23 starts and 1.5 WAR for next year. 

Keep him in the minors and you save the years of control, but if he doesn't return to form after this latest injury. his 3 full cost-controlled seasons as a starter are largely wasted.  Overall I would have prefered to see him dominate AA before being promoted, but keep in mind our AAA team from 2009-12 was Vegas, which many Bauxites have speculated was a lousy environment for developing prospects. 

Mike Green, that's a fascinating study you did their on young hitters.  Would love to see something for the pitchers if you have the time / inclination.

Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 01:59 PM EST (#316062) #
Nothing like that China. Just saying that for AA to stay here many wanted him to be president and have complete control over baseball operations. Didn't you say that part of why AA left was because he wouldn't have the autonomy with Shapiro that he had with Beeston? The only way for AA to have that autonomy would be to take the president role and now be responsible for that kind of stuff.
Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:01 PM EST (#316063) #
Sanchez was never a good starter, even in the minors. Hutch and Osuna sure, but there are major questions about their viability as starters for the coming year. Certainly nothing you can count on.
uglyone - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:05 PM EST (#316064) #
A.Sanchez (22)

Gms 1-3: 4.2ip/gs, 5.14era, 7.21fip, 5.58xfip
Gms 4-7: 6.0ip/gs, 3.75era, 4.72fip, 5.10xfip
Gms 8-11: 7.0ip/gs, 2.57era, 4.63fip, 3.78xfip

of course that's the first 11 starts of his career. at 22.

and he has one of the best fastballs in baseball, and a pretty wicked curve to boot. and when we-re talking peripherals, let's remember that he posted the 6th best GB% and the 15th best hard contact percentage in all mlb for SP with at least 50ip.

even if you wish to ignore the opinions of some baseball people that he has top of the rotation potential, which is fine and i might even agree with...to write him off as even starting rotation DEPTH is just wrong.
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:12 PM EST (#316065) #
Hard to measure what a player might have been unless we can see into alternate dimensions :)

Examples of left waaaay too long include guys like Edgar Martínez (full time at 27, 130+ OPS+ first 3 seasons, then a 100, then 120+ for the next decade), Ryan Howard (133 OPS+ in part time work then 6 years of 120+ but K's through the roof). Yeah, maybe both wouldn't have been as good if brought up earlier but years sub 30 are what you want. Peak years in pre age 25 age is not unusual.

Key years you want to capture are the sub 30 years for any player. So ideally they are up at 23 (one week in minors to make it so you get 7 years) then you get ages 23-29 under team control unless he is a Trout or A-Rod who forces the issue earlier. From 30-32 are good years to get if you can (ie: a Pujols type deal ... St Louis couldn't have timed it better). From 33 on you are taking a bigger and bigger risk the player will do a Roberto Alomar who went from a 150 OPS+ at age 33 to a 90 at 34, and 80 after that.

Guys who were born in 1982 (thus 33 now) and have appeared in more than 1 All Star game...
Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Brian Wilson,Carlos Quentin, Corey Hart, David Wright, Dontrelle Willis, Francisco Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, Ian Kinsler, J. J. Hardy, Jered Weaver, Jhonny Peralta, Michael Bourn, Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina. Only Willis is retired of that batch (13 AAA innings in 2014 his last work) but many others are not all-stars now. Others who had 1 ASG include Aaron Hill, Bryan LaHair, Carlos Marmol, Chad Cordero, Ervin Santana, Rickie Weeks.

Players aging is an issue that will always occur. Pre age 30 they are worth having, post age 30 you are taking a risk. With free agency being post 6 full seasons bringing guys up at 23/24 should be fairly common. Especially with many peaking at 25.
Mike Green - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:14 PM EST (#316066) #
The complaint, as I understand it, is actually this:  if Rogers invested an extra $20-million in payroll (boosting it from $138-million to $158-million, let's say), then the Jays could afford another "ace" level pitcher, and this would make it virtually certain that the Jays would reach the World Series in 2016 -- and this, in turn, would boost the team's revenue by more than $20-million (factoring in the higher television ratings, greater advertising and merchandising revenue, higher attendance, and the ability to boost ticket prices)

That is fairly close to what I'm saying, CF.  I don't think that it is virtually certain that any team will go to the World Series, but I do think that significantly increasing the chance that the team will play meaningful games in September and that they will make the playoffs and that they in turn will win the World Series justifies additional expenditure, given the size of the regional and broadcast market and the competition. 
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:15 PM EST (#316067) #
Just was thinking...

Sanchez age 22 41 games, 11 starts, 3.22 ERA 4.61 FIP, 4.3 BB/9 vs 5.9 SO/9

Halladay age 22 36 games, 18 starts, 3.92 ERA 5.46 FIP, 4.8 BB/9 4.9 SO/9

Not saying Sanchez is going to become Halladay but just interesting to look at. I remembered Halladay had control issues early on. Age 23 was Halladay's disaster year 10.64 ERA then he went all the way to A ball to be fixed by a dedicated pitching coach. Lets hope Sanchez doesn't need the same.
Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:20 PM EST (#316068) #
I'm not saying Sanchez will never be a starter, but that he can't be counted as one for the coming year. He needs to develop another pitch and fix his platoon issues. Once you resign Dickey as the number 2, relying on three big maybes in Osuna/Sanchez/Hutch as 3-5 is very risky, even if you bump them all down by adding a Price. That's why adding Estrada/Happ/Chavez makes sense because it will take the pressure off those guys and also allow them to make a safer transition into new roles.
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:21 PM EST (#316069) #
"....Just saying that for AA to stay here many wanted him to be president and have complete control over baseball operations....."

Kasi, you're now climbing down from your original criticism of AA, since you have now remembered that a GM doesn't control stadium renovations.  But let's address your new point.  First: you don't have to be president to have complete control of baseball operations.  AA wasn't president, and he had control of baseball operations (subject to Beeston's veto, which was rarely exercised).  So there was no reason why the status quo could not have continued.  Hire a president to replace Beeston who would focus on stadium renovations and other business plans.  Leave AA in charge of baseball operations.  If he was allowed to keep the autonomy that he had over the past few years, he would have stayed.  (And let's set aside the argument over whether the Jays needed someone like Shapiro rather than AA to make them more "prudent" or "sustainable" or whatever -- that's a separate issue.  I'm just pointing out that AA didn't need to be president in order to have control of baseball operations.)

Second, your critique is fundamentally contradictory and self-defeating.  On the one hand, you criticize AA because you claim he had no interest in stadium renovations.  And then you criticize AA's supporters because you think we wanted him to be president -- and therefore in charge of stadium renovations.  So which is it?  You can't have it both ways.  Was he scheming to be president?  Or was he uninterested in the duties of president?  You can't criticize him (and us) for both of those contradictory things.


pubster - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:44 PM EST (#316070) #
Interesting article written almost two weeks ago.

Apparantly FanGraphs estimated Happ to receive a 3 year $33 Million deal.

http://jaysjournal.com/2015/11/17/toronto-blue-jays-look-at-bringing-ja-happ-back-hot-stove-mlb-news-offseason/
jerjapan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:55 PM EST (#316071) #
If I can respond...Leafs platinum seats are over 50,000 for a pair. Blue Jays Season's tickets behind home plate are closer to 9,500. It breaks down to roughly 57$/game for 1 seat to go to a Blue Jays game. You're trying to compare apples and oranges, completely different.

Okay, good point Dalimon, poor comparison - I had know idea platinums were that much!

That aside though, the main point still stands.  It's often the younger / poorer fans that drive the excitement at the Dome, and they shouldn't be discounted, even from a purely fiscal POV, simply because they don't have seasons tickets.
hypobole - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 02:57 PM EST (#316072) #
"Examples of left waaaay too long include guys like Edgar Martínez (full time at 27, 130+ OPS+ first 3 seasons, then a 100, then 120+ for the next decade), Ryan Howard (133 OPS+ in part time work then 6 years of 120+ but K's through the roof)."

John, you're absolutely right about Martinez, but waaaay wrong on Howard.

Howard was almost 22 when drafted in the 5th round. Hit very well, (but not outstanding for a poor-fielding 1st baseman) for his age 22 and 23 seasons in Low and High A. Had a monster age 24 season in AA, a short stint in AAA, and was a September call up. He did spend another half season in AAA the following year, then came up and stayed.
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 03:00 PM EST (#316073) #
"...we're arguing with the posters that want to sever their ties with Rogers/Blue Jays if they don't increase payroll as if they are entitled to a return on their tiny investment. If you look through this entire thread you will see that there are in fact posts by fans suggesting this idea...."

I've looked through this entire thread about three times now, scouring for anyone who said this.  I don't see anyone who said:  "Because I bought a ticket, I'm entitled to a return on my investment.  Give me a return on my investment."   Please show me where anyone said this.  And even if I've missed a stray sentence in this thread, it's obviously not a comment sentiment here.  if there is someone who whined about being "entitled" to a return, I'm absolutely certain it is a tiny minority of people on this thread -- virtually non-existent.

"....If you don't like the product or return on your investment then cut ties, but don't pretend like you're being jerked around by a corporation that owes you anything....."

Again, who said that they were "jerked around"?   I've only seen a few people who said that they can't keep buying season tickets forever, or people who said that they won't buy tickets if the owners have sabotaged the team's chances by penny-pinching on the payroll.  And of course people are completely entitled to stop buying tickets if they are unhappy.  Who can disagree with their right to stop buying tickets?  They're not saying that they're "jerked around", they are just saying that they don't feel like buying tickets if they disagree with the team's philosophy.   Aren't they allowed to stop buying tickets (or stop subscribing to other Rogers products) if they want?

Dave Till - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 03:32 PM EST (#316074) #
Sanchez is fascinating to watch. Normally, a pitcher needs to have excellent command of his stuff in order to make it to the majors. But Sanchez is so good that he just has to be able to throw most of his pitches near the plate, and hitters will swing and miss.

Unfortunately, developing command is the hard part of becoming a successful pitcher. The minor leagues are full of pitchers with good stuff who haven't figured out where it will go. Sanchez could improve his command, but lots of pitchers don't.
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 03:43 PM EST (#316075) #
Was going on memory with Howard because at the time everyone was screaming 'call him up are you guys nuts' but they had Thome at 1B and didn't have space (NL). He looked like Frank Thomas #2 at the time.

Better examples would be
Wade Boggs: left off 40 man for a couple of years even, Gillick said he almost drafted him but wimped out then decided to take him the next year but Boston finally got a clue. (2 years A ball, 2 years AA, 2 years AAA then just 104 ML games the next year, finally full time)
Phil Niekro: Knuckleballers curse, age 26 a reliever, age 28 a starter led league in ERA that year. A year in the military delayed him a bit though.
Glevin - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 03:54 PM EST (#316076) #
"Sanchez is fascinating to watch. Normally, a pitcher needs to have excellent command of his stuff in order to make it to the majors. But Sanchez is so good that he just has to be able to throw most of his pitches near the plate, and hitters will swing and miss."

Not enough. Sanchez's K rates were extremely poor for a pitcher with his stuff. As a starter and even as a reliever he didn't strike out very many guys. He likely needs a new pitch if he wants to take the next step.
jerjapan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 04:04 PM EST (#316077) #
Gotta give a shout out to minor league HR King and real life Crash Davis Mike Hessman who just announced his retirement at 37.

According to this article, Hessman spent nearly 80 days of his life riding a bus in the minor leagues.  Dude is why I love baseball.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/mike-hessman-minor-league-home-run-king-retires-toledo-mud-hens-life-of-baseball-113015

Kasi - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 04:34 PM EST (#316078) #
China you know that the GM role who is the baseball guy while the President that just does finances/stadium is a dying role in baseball today. AA was in a unique position in baseball that he had free reign from the president. That type of role doesn't exist in other orgs. You have more and more organizations moving to how the Dodgers/Cubs/Red Sox/etc do things, where there is both a GM and a president who have say in baseball ops.

I'm not criticizing AA for scheming to be president. He bluntly said he didn't want those types of responsibilities. It just means that with how baseball front officers are going that he'd have a guy who knows about baseball senior to him. How much Shapiro would actually meddle is up to anyone, but there is little chance of AA being the guy in total charge unless he wants to be a president somewhere. If he wants to have the final say on baseball moves he has to be president, just a simple fact.
dalimon5 - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 04:40 PM EST (#316079) #
China Fan, look again through the thread and you will find the posts. It reads to me like someone who is deciding not to purchase tickets because they expect their spending power and commitment to the team to be rewarded "in kind." In fact, it's exactly what a poster said.

For you to show up in the 11th hour as you typically do, claiming to have read through the thread three times, as you say you did, and come away with an entirely different reading of what was written, I'll save everyone else the time of having to read it again. But for you, I will post the comments below:



Poster- Saturday, November 28 2015 @ 01:06 PM EST (#315892) #
i had a ballpark pass. i have been to every home opener for nearly 20 years, and i'm not going this year because they want me to buy a flex pass to get tickets.

they've signalled to me that my loyalty has meant nothing. that's fine - their prerogative. but, as quick as they brought fans out, they'll lose them if they don't win.

i don't believe shapiro is going to financially commit to AA's vision beyond selling tickets to X-mas/holiday buyers via these kinds of moves that nominally raise the floor from drew hutchison post-2015, to guys that are older versions of drew hutchison post-2014 (ie. had a good 2- 4 month stretch at the end of the season).

i'm not buying.

Poster - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 05:46 PM EST (#315980) #
my risk tolerance for a team that will never invest X% above revenue to move to the next level is approaching zero.

i became a jays fan in the late 80s, and still expect the team to run a tight organizational ship, scout well, and spend whatever was necessary.

i find that my geographic loyalties are now in conflict with my desire to have my good faith, and spending power rewarded in kind. i think at some point you can't let your emotional attachment get exploited...it's just bad business.


Poster - Sunday, November 29 2015 @ 08:22 PM EST (#315992) #
i guess money doesn't buy you a clue. i'm not directing that at anyone in particular.


Statements such as the following:

"My loyalty has meant nothing"

"I'm not buying"

"i find that my geographic loyalties are now in conflict with my desire to have my good faith, and spending power rewarded in kind," ...

Does this not strike you as someone who is upset with their 'investment' in the team because of the team's direction? You respond that everyone has the right to stop buying tickets or to remove their subscription from Rogers, which is true...but you miss the bigger (again). I don't know what to say other than this:

I don't know what's worse, people who cut the cord/sever ties with the team and feel the need to come on here and post/justify their action or me and several other posters having to take the time to explain why we wrote what we wrote, sometimes even having to rewrite what was already written.



JB21 - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 04:43 PM EST (#316080) #
Fangraphs on the Happ signing.
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 05:21 PM EST (#316081) #
"...someone who is upset with their 'investment' in the team because of the team's direction?..."

If you're simply stating that some fans are upset after buying tickets, it's just a statement of the obvious.  There's nothing wrong with people being upset or disappointed or whatever they want to feel.  But you've exaggerated this by describing it as a case of "entitlement" by people who expect a return for their "tiny investment."  I don't see any evidence that people believe they are are "entitled."  They're just expressing their opinion as fans.  Their only power is the power to buy a ticket or not buy a ticket.  It sounds like you're begrudging them this.  The language of "entitlement" -- accusing ordinary people of "whining" or demanding too much --  is often a way to beat down the little guy and tell him to accept his fate. 

You have told the fans that Rogers doesn't "owe us anything."   (Those were your words.)  I don't really see the rationale for rushing to the defence of a huge corporation and lecturing the ordinary fans about how Rogers "owes us nothing."  Doesn't Rogers have plenty of money to afford its own public-relations people?  They don't need us to defend them.

The ordinary fan knows that corporations are ruthlessly focused on the bottom line, and we know that Rogers doesn't think it owes us anything.  Let people vent their feelings without being told that Rogers owes us nothing.  We already know the company's attitude, but at least give us the right to complain.
China fan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 05:31 PM EST (#316082) #
"...my desire to have my good faith, and spending power rewarded in kind..."

Please note that he referred to his "desire."  He didn't claim to be "entitled" to anything.  He didn't claim that Rogers "owed" him anything.  He simply expressed a desire.

"....they've signaled to me that my loyalty has meant nothing. that's fine - their prerogative...."


Again, he's not saying he is "entitled" to anything or "owed" anything.  He specifically accepts that Rogers has the prerogative to do anything they want.

So why are you bashing fans for their "tiny investment" and their "sense of entitlement"?   Everyone gets it, the huge corporation will do whatever it wants.  But at least allow people the right to complain and to express their disappointment.

dalimon5 - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 06:14 PM EST (#316083) #
I apologize China Fan. For those people interested, please continue to exercise your rights to complain and express your disappointments.

Thank you for clearing that up for me China Fan, now if you'll excuse me, I'll return to watching paint dry which more exciting than what this thread has turned into.
scottt - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 06:44 PM EST (#316084) #
That Jays journal article points out that Happ could be offered up to 3 years at 33 millions but that it should be possible to pay less by signing him early.

This is like paying full price during Black Friday.

Happ can give you 5 innings at average production which is fine if you have 2 or 3 guys ahead of him that can go 7 innings or more. Even during his miracle run in Pittsburgh, he was limited to 82, 83, 84 and 87 pitches during some of his wins. Yep, it's nice to have a deep bullpen in September and a weak offense to run them against. He only went over 100 pitches twice. Once in that blow out against St-Louis.

Double Meh.

scottt - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 06:58 PM EST (#316085) #
Sanchez relies heavily on a sinker and a fourseam fastball, but he also uses a curve, a changeup, a slider and possibly a cutter. He doesn't need a new pitch. He just needs to throw more strikes.

jerjapan - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 06:58 PM EST (#316086) #
I'll return to watching paint dry which more exciting than what this thread has turned into.

Well I guess we are all guilty then?  Seems to me that a lot of people, including yourself, were happily laying down the paint. 

Perhaps a new thread? 
Mylegacy - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 07:28 PM EST (#316087) #
Dear Dilimon5

Up in the thread you say (as paraphrased by yours truly - actually - I'm too tired to go find it and copy it - age - a dreadful thing...sigh); "... a $9500 season ticket works out to $57 per seat per game..."

Really? 162/2 = 81 home games per season... $9,500/81 equals $117.28. 

Now 57/117.28x100= 48.60%.

Bravo - you were almost 50% correct!
hypobole - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 08:19 PM EST (#316088) #
scottt, the jays journal story posted by pubster said nothing about getting a discount by signing him early.

It says than rather than signing for 3 yrs and $30+ million Happ may sign with the Jays if offered a 2 yr deal in the $15-$20 million range, thus allowing him prove his newfound effectiveness is for real, then re-enter free agency for a larger payday.

Does this really make sense, seeing as Happ is already 33? Does the writer think 35 yr old pitchers are so much more attractive in free agency than 36 yr olds?
dalimon5 - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 09:24 PM EST (#316089) #
Dear MyLegacy,

Drinking your whiskey again? I said "Blue Jays Season's tickets behind home plate are closer to 9,500. It breaks down to roughly 57$/game for 1 seat to go to a Blue Jays game." "Ticket(s)" is what I wrote, not a "single ticket."

9,500 is the cost of two tickets, and I don't think the team sells single season tickets. I happen to share with 4 friends so we each take about 20 games.
9,500 divided by 81 games = $117/game divided by 2 seats per game = 58.6 dollars per seat, and that's after this year's increase.


So to answer your question, yes, really - that's how much they are. Turns out YOU were almost 50% correct in your attempt to correct me.
scottt - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 09:29 PM EST (#316090) #
"Happ will definitively have fewer suitors than most pitchers on the market, and could be tempted early by a lower multi-year offer if other teams wait to see how things shape up with higher end names".

Yes, that was quite the discount.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 10:55 PM EST (#316091) #
Time for another post people. I understand you're basically lazy, but that's not an excuse. Both Ben Nicholson-Smith and Gregor Chisholm have great articles out today which can be discussed. Just one of many things I got from that was the Jays will not spend money, just to spend money, but they could have a lot more available than we think. Incidentally, Bonds as a Hitting Instructor?
John Northey - Monday, November 30 2015 @ 11:56 PM EST (#316092) #
I think people were very mistaken if they thought you could sign guys early for a discount. Generally free agency goes by biggest gun goes first, then that sets the high water mark for all others and as more high end guys sign the middle of the roaders know what the market will be for them and negotiate accordingly.

To get a middle of the road guy to sign early and potentially miss out on a bidding war by teams that missed out on higher end pitchers you got to either hit his goal for years and/or dollars fast. The Jays did that with Happ. In 10 seasons Happ has 10.8 fWAR so expecting 1 WAR is not unreasonable, he had 3.3 last year (1.2 pre-trade, 2.1 post) giving him a net value of $26.6 mil which would be sweet given the deal he signed. Two other times in his decade of ML time he has cracked $10 mil of value, 3 times over $5 mil (ie: endurable on this contract), 3 times sub $5 mil (4.9 one of those times, plus his rookie year being sub-replacement). At first I was against this signing but the more I look at it the better it seems. FanGraphs assumes a WAR is $8 mil of value in 2015 after being $7.7 in each of the two years previous. Basically if the Jays got back what they had in the past Happ would be worth over 1/2 his contract, if he is anywhere near what he was last year he could be worth the entire 3 years in 1 1/2 or even just 1 season. The potential of this being a steal is high vs the potential for total bust (basically he'd need to go for Tommy John and come back sucking).
hypobole - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 12:29 AM EST (#316093) #
"I think people were very mistaken if they thought you could sign guys early for a discount."

Agree 100% John. That was one of the 3 premises in that bloggers story that made little sense. I mentioned the other one where he thought Happ would try to set himself up for a big payday in his age 35 season. And the third was his belief that Happ would have fewer suitors than most FA pitchers.

This is from MLBTR: " Happ will be a popular mid-range free agent target, as he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer and probably won’t expect a four-year deal. The Pirates will attempt to retain him, while the Royals, Orioles, Padres, Angels, Giants, Tigers, A’s, Dodgers, and Marlins also make sense."
uglyone - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 12:38 AM EST (#316094) #
agreed that you get bargains late, not early - but that still ends up a criticism of our moves, not a defense.

and while $/war is useful, i still say paying market value for 1-2war players is what bad GMs do, not good ones.

Ben Revere is a much better bet for 2war than any of the pitchers we added, and we don't even like paying him $6.7m....and we're right not to like it, even though we are technically getting him at "half price". Just like many were right not to like paying that for Lind's 1-2war....or paying Happ $7m the last time we had him.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 01:46 AM EST (#316095) #
The thing with Happy is 1 is his bottom for WAR but his upside is 3+. That makes him a potential steal at this price. Worse case is a me pitcher. Wait a month or two and a bidding war might happen and we all know how often the Jays win those.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 01:47 AM EST (#316096) #
Well with Happ in the fold this at least allows us to use Chavez in the true swingman role. I love for us to overpay on Madson and resign Lowe so we can try Osuna/Sanchez back in the rotation. Even if they falter early.... Chavez can step in and the entire bullpen is strong enough to carry a weak starter from 5 innings onwards.
hypobole - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 02:19 AM EST (#316097) #
There might end up being a bargain late, and probably there will be, but that doesn't mean it would be our team that ends up with that bargain.
Thomas - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 06:21 AM EST (#316098) #
Time for another post people. I understand you're basically lazy, but that's not an excuse

Richard, kindly go to another Jays website where you don't feel the need to call moderators and authors lazy.

And stay there.

Dave Till - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 07:31 AM EST (#316099) #
I don't think anyone has mentioned my favourite J.A. Happ factoid: he was tied for the National League lead in shutouts in 2009. Sure, it was only 2, and there were several other pitchers who had that many, but still.

The Jays deserve credit for quickly filling the gaps in their starting rotation, even if it's not with the pitchers that we fans might have wanted as our first choices.
Jevant - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 08:01 AM EST (#316100) #
Let's wait until the offseason is over to decide who got great deals and who overpaid. My recollection of years past is that generally those that get their work done early end up looking better on the total at the end of the day.
mathesond - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 09:23 AM EST (#316101) #
Time for another post people. I understand you're basically lazy, but that's not an excuse

Richard, kindly go to another Jays website where you don't feel the need to call moderators and authors lazy.

And stay there.


Huh. Several years ago I made it a point to skip his comments as I felt there was nothing of value to be gained from reading them. Looks like nothing has changed.
Jevant - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 10:34 AM EST (#316104) #
I'm kinda hoping that I'm missing something here and you aren't just taking a pot-shot at the moderators here.
hypobole - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 10:38 AM EST (#316105) #
"I'm kinda hoping that I'm missing something here and you aren't just taking a pot-shot at the moderators here"

It's not like he hasn't done it before.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 11:54 AM EST (#316109) #
It's Expo birthday day.  Kirk Rueter, Larry Walker, Herm Winningham, Dan Schatzeder and Dan Warthen all share the day. 
John Northey - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 01:17 PM EST (#316113) #
Richard S.S. - we are not paid for doing this - it is purely a labor of love of baseball. Every so often news from one item takes over and there is nothing new to start a fresh thread with and I personally don't like starting new ones as 'hey gang...stop talking in the old thread and talk here instead'. Please don't use 'lazy' as a way of describing us. I'm a single dad who works full time plus is vp of the local Green Party and is also on the provincial Green Party shadow cabinet. Doing posts here is purely a fun exercise - lets keep it that way.
JB21 - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 01:46 PM EST (#316115) #
Being offended by a Richard S.S. comment is like being offended by a Trump comment. Best to ignore.
jerjapan - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 01:52 PM EST (#316116) #
I read that as a poorly considered joke myself, but just for the record, thanks John and the rest of our moderators! 
PeterG - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 02:06 PM EST (#316117) #
I concur with some of these comments. Some posters (not many) are best ignored.
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 02:20 PM EST (#316120) #
OK - I hate to say this and wouldn't think I'd need to but to claim Toronto isn't a top 10 market is insane - I have no other word for it. TV viewership pre-August was up there with anyone in the majors and after August was higher than any 2 other clubs. The stadium sold every seat it had. The market in/around Toronto is larger in population than the market in/around all but NY, Chicago and LA and all 3 of those are split markets. The potential TV audience is over 30 million - or the population of California which supports 5 teams. To say that isn't a top 10 market, or at least a potential top 10 requires such a drastic reduction of fan support due to border issues that it blows my mind.

John, if you will take a moment and jot down the 20 mlb teams that you think constitute a smaller baseball market than Toronto, I'll take a longer time and draw a comparison for you.
hypobole - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 02:28 PM EST (#316121) #
There is a difference between "market" and "baseball market".

Los Angeles is a larger market than Toronto or Montreal, but is nowhere close to being a larger hockey market. Or as a lot of folks down there call it, "ice hockey".
ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 02:40 PM EST (#316122) #
The complaint, as I understand it, is actually this: if Rogers invested an extra $20-million in payroll (boosting it from $138-million to $158-million, let's say), then the Jays could afford another "ace" level pitcher, and this would make it virtually certain that the Jays would reach the World Series in 2016

The difference between an Price and Happ isn't 20 million. That's insincere. If the difference was 20 million, Price is a Blue Jay easily. It's 200 million.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 02:52 PM EST (#316123) #
"and while $/war is useful, i still say paying market value for 1-2war players is what bad GMs do, not good ones."

That depends on the make up of the roster. Kansas City's big moves last winter were adding Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Ryan Madson, and Kris Medlen. Pretty much a giant list of "1-2 WAR" players. The reason that worked out was because they had a ton of surplus value elsewhere (mostly with position players and the pen) and some of their younger players got better. Then they were able to add some vets at the deadline to put them over the top.

You can't make a broad generalization that only bad GM's add those players when 1) it's not true, and 2) it depends entirely on how the roster is set up. A 75 win team that adds Happ, Estrada, and Chavez is not getting much value. However, a team expected to win somewhere in the high-80's to 90's can make those value moves and add important value to the team. The value of a win for a team in the Jays position is that much harder to get.
hypobole - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:04 PM EST (#316125) #
And to get back to the Happ signing, there is something I alluded to earlier, but haven't fleshed out and that's the wild card that may well determine the success or failure of this deal - our pitching coach.

Never been a Walker fan, though I've been told he's a smart guy. Why did Walker not fix Happ while Happ was a Jay? Has anyone heard of any success stories here attributable to Walker? I haven't.

This from Sportsnet a few days ago on Liam Hendriks:
"The pitcher credited the turnaround to improved health along with the influence of Blue Jays catchers Russell Martin and Dioner Navarro."
Don't know if anyone else noticed the lack of mention of Walker by name. The closest he came was thanking "the coaching staff" in the Blair radio interview.

Anyone else have thoughts on Walker?
China fan - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:10 PM EST (#316126) #
"....The difference between an Price and Happ isn't 20 million...."

I wasn't suggesting a brief one-time bump in the payroll, and then reverting to the old payroll.  I was suggesting that Rogers should invest more in the payroll on an ongoing basis.  So if the payroll is increased by $20-million this year, the payroll would remain at its higher level in the future.  So, yes, in that scenario, the Jays could afford an ace.  Perhaps not David Price, but perhaps Jordan Zimmerman.

In any event, don't get hung up on precise numbers or exact names, since I was just talking generally about the benefits of a higher payroll.  The numbers and names are purely illustrative.  They're hypothetical examples.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:12 PM EST (#316127) #
What did the Giants do the year before?  They had Crawford, Sandoval, Pence, Posey and Bumgarner.  All of their off-season moves were of the low rent type.  They brought in Mike Morse for $6 million.  He was roughly Chris Colabello, except that the Giants already had Brandon Belt at first base.  He gave them 1.1 WAR for their $6 million (and that was really all that you could expect from him).  Obviously, Bochy's talents helped.

In 2013, the big acquisition for the WS champs was Shane Victorino for $13 million/annum.  He had been a 2.6 WAR player the year before at age 31, but had been a better player the year before.  They were paying him the salary of a 2 WAR player for 3 years, and that has been what he delivered (except that he delivered it all in the first year of the contract). 

There is no one way to win a championship. 



Mike Green - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:13 PM EST (#316128) #
Never been a Walker fan, though I've been told he's a smart guy. Why did Walker not fix Happ while Happ was a Jay? Has anyone heard of any success stories here attributable to Walker? I haven't.

Brett Cecil credited Walker with a mechanical tweak last summer that helped him. 
Vulg - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:26 PM EST (#316130) #
John, if you will take a moment and jot down the 20 mlb teams that you think constitute a smaller baseball market than Toronto, I'll take a longer time and draw a comparison for you.

It would be far simpler to rank them the other way, as that list would include every city outside of New York and Los Angeles. Chicago is close. Population is obviously the biggest factor, given a MLB team's typical revenue model (i.e. more eyeballs consuming content in some capacity = more revenue). Only Mexico City, NY and LA rank ahead of Toronto in North America.

Of course, the Blue Jays (and the Raptors) are in the unique situation of being the only Canadian team in their sports league ... how that translates into captured revenue is up to ownership, their marketing effectiveness and the success of the team. At the very least, we've seen the potential the Jays have in terms of putting up gaudy television numbers: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-draw-monster-ratings-for-game-3-of-alds/

Perhaps my experience in non-sports business and marketing doesn't translate well, but given the size of the market, the natural synergy of owning the content that you are providing and the fact that the stadium was virtually free, I see no reason whatsoever as to why the Jays shouldn't be able to spike up to Boston/SF ($180M+) or at least Washington/Tigers ($160M+) levels during a playoff window.

I don't really care if Rogers strips things down to $100M - $120M during a rebuilding phase or when the team isn't positioned for a playoff run, but now is not that time.
China fan - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:29 PM EST (#316133) #
Marco Estrada on Sept. 17, 2015, after pitching 8 scoreless innings against Atlanta:  "A few outings back I didn't feel all that great, my mechanics were off,
rushing stuff. I talked to [pitching coach] Pete [Walker] and we got
that stuff squared away and it all came together today."
Vulg - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:32 PM EST (#316135) #
What did the Giants do the year before? They had Crawford, Sandoval, Pence, Posey and Bumgarner. All of their off-season moves were of the low rent type. They brought in Mike Morse for $6 million. He was roughly Chris Colabello, except that the Giants already had Brandon Belt at first base. He gave them 1.1 WAR for their $6 million (and that was really all that you could expect from him). Obviously, Bochy's talents helped. In 2013, the big acquisition for the WS champs was Shane Victorino for $13 million/annum. He had been a 2.6 WAR player the year before at age 31, but had been a better player the year before. They were paying him the salary of a 2 WAR player for 3 years, and that has been what he delivered (except that he delivered it all in the first year of the contract). There is no one way to win a championship.

Mike, had they not made those moves in 2014, they'd be in luxury tax territory. Giants payroll was $178M in 2014. I readily admit that it's a costly proposition to keep a team together the longer the 'core' experiences success together.

While there is more than one way to get to the World Series, it's pretty expensive to keep the team that got you there together.

My hope for the Jays is that they are closer to the kind of team that let's payroll creep up during such a time rather than the one-and-done type.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:33 PM EST (#316136) #
20 smaller markets than Toronto in MLB? No problem. All but NYY, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, LA Dodgers, LA Angels. There you go.
By TV Market none are remotely close to Toronto. The biggest TV Market in the USA is NY with 7.4 million TV homes (http://www.tvb.org/media/file/2015-2016-dma-ranks.pdf) 14.5 million in Canada (http://www.tvb.ca/page_files/pdf/infocentre/tvbasics.pdf). Don't forget the NY market is split too.

The Jays have by FAR the largest market potential of any team in MLB. Yeah, Canada isn't baseball crazy most of the time so losing teams won't access it like they can in Chicago (Cubs are the Leafs of baseball), NY and Boston but it sure is there when they are winning. TV Revenue by far is the most important revenue source in MLB and the Jays are worth a ton right now and if they keep winning it'll continue to be so just like in the 85-93 contending years.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 03:55 PM EST (#316138) #
Giants payroll was $178M in 2014

BBRef has it at $163.5M and that includes part of Peavy's contract which the Giants added at the deadline.

I think you'll find that most World Series winners in the last 30 years did not make a large free-agent purchase in the off-season (i.e. a player expected to produce 4 WAR or more and paid accordingly). I checked the Cardinals World Series winners of the last 10 years. The big acquisition in the off-season for the Cardinals of 06 was Juan Encarnacion (low rent).  For the Cardinals of 11, it was Lance Berkman for $10 million a year (he had produced 1.4 WAR the year before at age 34). 
John Northey - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 04:01 PM EST (#316139) #
For the 1992 Jays it was Jack Morris - 4.3 WAR year, Dave Winfield 0.5 WAR (but 2.4 oWAR which is what mattered as he was to be the DH). Pre 1993 it was Dave Stewart (1.3 WAR), and Paul Molitor (4.9) and Dick Schofield (2.3) not to mention resigning Joe Carter (2.5).

Yeah, 4+ WAR guys are rare for anyone to sign. But the 1993 Jays got their WS MVP from that.
Vulg - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 04:27 PM EST (#316140) #
BBRef has it at $163.5M and that includes part of Peavy's contract which the Giants added at the deadline.

I like BBRef for player statistics, but Sportrac is far more comprehensive for team salary. They also include the $4.9M prorated portion of Peavy's contract among other things.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants/payroll/2014/

I think you'll find that most World Series winners in the last 30 years did not make a large free-agent purchase in the off-season (i.e. a player expected to produce 4 WAR or more and paid accordingly). I checked the Cardinals World Series winners of the last 10 years. The big acquisition in the off-season for the Cardinals of 06 was Juan Encarnacion (low rent). For the Cardinals of 11, it was Lance Berkman for $10 million a year (he had produced 1.4 WAR the year before at age 34).

Hey, if the Jays model themselves after the Cardinals and find themselves able to produce an endless supply of excellent pitching depth under Shapiro a few years from now, that's fantastic. It would be cool not to have to worry about a David Price leaving your team and the gaping hole in your rotation that creates.

I'll say the same thing about the Cards that I did about the Royals when people cite their rotation - different markets, different financial constraints. I'm sure the Cards, Royals and 20+ other teams wish they could keep some of the players they have to kiss goodbye.
jerjapan - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 04:45 PM EST (#316141) #
"Kansas City's big moves last winter were adding Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Ryan Madson, and Kris Medlen. Pretty much a giant list of "1-2 WAR" players"

To be fair, a bunch of those players were signed below Market value or for short term deals - Volquez (2x10 million) and Morales (2x8.5)  - are pretty different deals that the Happ deal (which I like).  KC rolled the dice and may have won on Medlen's returning from severe injury if he pitches reasonably next year, but their risk was only 8.5 million over two years, and they rolled the dice and lost badly on Rios -  11 million plus a buyout for his option -  but a one year deal. 

Madson and Young don't belong on your list - reclamation projects that signed for under a million each.  I actually assume that Ugly's prefered model of team building involves putting Price at the front of the rotation and filling the back end out with precisely those sorts of reclamation projects. 

Mike Green - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 04:46 PM EST (#316142) #
Thank you, vulg.  That is interesting and helpful salary data.  I was responding to this comment from uglyone:

and while $/war is useful, i still say paying market value for 1-2war players is what bad GMs do, not good ones.

I was not suggesting that one approach (one 4 WAR player) vs. the other (two 2 WAR players) is better than the other.  I agree that generalizations tend to mislead.

Vulg - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 05:06 PM EST (#316143) #
Red Sox land Price, 7 years for $217M.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-red-sox-to-sign-david-price-for-seven-years-217-million/

Was really, really hoping he wouldn't end up in the AL East and honestly thought this wouldn't happen with the Yankees new found aversion to paying tax dollars. Oh well.
jerjapan - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 05:20 PM EST (#316144) #
a sad end to a pipe dream that he might be back - it stings to know that he actually wanted to be here after so many reports that FAs don't want to sign in TO. 

Does he get the Toronto booing treatment so many of our former stars get?  I actually like the guy quite a bit, but the Red Sox?   

Cracka - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 05:27 PM EST (#316145) #
Horrible news, but completely expected. The Red Sox let it be known that they were all-in for Price and they certainly were. $31 million per season or ~$1/million per start. That's going to be a big contract in 2020/2021/2022.

I like him less now.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 05:44 PM EST (#316146) #
"To be fair, a bunch of those players were signed below Market value or for short term deals - Volquez (2x10 million) and Morales (2x8.5) - are pretty different deals that the Happ deal (which I like). KC rolled the dice and may have won on Medlen's returning from severe injury if he pitches reasonably next year, but their risk was only 8.5 million over two years, and they rolled the dice and lost badly on Rios - 11 million plus a buyout for his option - but a one year deal. "

No, they were signed to exactly the types of deals ugly claimed to have an issue with (ones that were 'fair value' in terms of $/WAR). Morales was coming off a -1.8 WAR, and he was at 1.6, 1.5, and 1.3 respectively from 2010-13. He got paid on the assumption that his true talent level was the ~1.5 WAR player he was pre-2014, and he made a decent gamble. You can't expect Morales as a DH to get as much as Happ as a SP. Volquez is a better example, but from 2012 to 2014, his $/WAR was $9.9M, $7M, and $7.3M respectively. What he got was market value for a pitcher like him, if not a tad more. Happ is coming off a much better season in 2015 than Volquez was in 2014 (a 2 win difference). I'm not sure what long and short term has to do with it, as Happ got 3 years, Estrada got 2, and Chavez is signed for 1. They are all short-term.

It's splitting hairs. The point remains the same. You can afford to make value deals if the rest of the roster presents a surplus in value.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 05:54 PM EST (#316147) #
I'm also sad to see David Price go to the hated Red Sox, but, man, that's a huge salary for a player who actually plays every 5th game. Much as I would have loved to have him back, I can see management's reasons for not going after him.
scottt - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 06:30 PM EST (#316155) #
It's weird. I'm starting to like the Red Sox.
JB21 - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 07:56 PM EST (#316167) #
It's weird. I'm starting to like the Red Sox.

Umm, that is a really weird thing for a Blue Jays fan to say. You're right about that.

uglyone - Tuesday, December 01 2015 @ 10:50 PM EST (#316188) #
I too have weirdly positive feelings towards the red sox now. crazy, but true.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, December 02 2015 @ 01:05 AM EST (#316202) #
That's the team Mookie Betts is on. Why not?
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