Odd trade, but I didn't see Liam as a rotation guy. He's done well in the pen, but IMO he's not a starter.

I would assume that the the Jays are officially keeping Osuna & Sanchez in the pen.

At this point and time we have Stroman, Estrada, Dickie, Chavez, Hutch.

I could see them going after one more SP and having Hutch start in AAA.

PS Chavez is a FA after next year, Hendriks is controlled for 4 more. Chavez will make about 5 million in 2016, Hendriks, I believe, will make less than a million.

Seems like a fairly minor trade, and I think it's fine, though Hendriks has four more years of control left to Chavez's one.

Well, it's gotta go better than his last stint in TO ....

Decent move, but we are losing three years of control.  he's got an affordable contract for a possible starter, but I do hope this doesn't mean we are done adding pitching! 

Chavez went 1-1 with a 8.44 earned average for the less-than-juggernaut Jays of 2012 in nine appearances. His K-BB total was 27-10 in 21-1/3 innings but his WHIP was an ugly 1.641.

Ironically, his last appearance as a Jay came in Oakland and he got the win after escaping a bases-loaded jam in this extra-inning affair.  I hope his second go-round in Toronto goes a lot better than his first.

Mixed feelings on this one.

I like Chavez and am not surprised Shapiro/LaCava got him. Peripherals are very good (~7.5 K/9, 2.75 BB/9) and is projected to be a 2.2 WAR starter next season. He is one of those pitchers who likely fell under the radar a bit due to perception of being a late bloomer and/or swing man, but he has been very good the past two years with the ratios to back it up. Whether he can be a 200 IP starter next season remains to be seen, but it's worth a shot.

The mixed feelings come from losing Hendriks. His velocity gain as a reliever was substantial, and his numbers were excellent, albeit in lower leverage spots due to mistrust from the manager. I can see him sustaining his performance going forward, and with four years of control left, that's going to be very valuable.

Ultimately a trade that will likely provide more value for the Jays in 2016, but the A's are getting the three extra years of control, which will be big for them. If Hendriks' 2015 performance is for real once he's given higher leverage spots consistently, then he's going to be a very valuable asset.

This probably means at least one, if not both, of Osuna and Sanchez will remain in the pen, as I definitely see them adding at least one more starter so that Hutchison is the 6th guy in AAA.

Odd one. Not the type I like to see coming here - a meh 3/4 starter who Gibbons will feel a need to start due to salary I suspect. Sub 4 FIP the past 3 seasons which is good (on this team that should work into 15 wins) but 157 is his peak innings last year in 26 starts.

Still, if the Jays get Price or Greinke to go with him in the rotation thus allowing Osuna/Sanchez to be closer/setup for 2016 that might work well.

I think it's a pretty good trade. Chavez is clearly versatile and it provides a bit of a cushion for the Jays in their rotation. Couple thoughts:

1. The trade isn't entirely dissimilar to the Estrada one last year. If the Jays catch something in Chavez then great--he won't have too much leverage as a FA and you could qualify him get some compensation. On the downside he could provide similar innings to Hendriks out of the bullpen.

2. It does a bit to help your offseason out as well. You can very well deal Drew Hutchison or RA Dickey as part of something for a frontline guy and then slot Chavez in at the backend of the rotation.

3. I wonder if part of the thinking was to deter Oakland from dealing Gray to a rival. With Chavez gone the A's may be more reluctant to deal from their rotation?

Good point about the low cost. Hendriks was first acquired off waivers, then traded with Erik Kratz for Valencia, then reacquired for Santiago Nessy in the spring - Nessy has a lifetime 684 OPS in mostly A+ and lower (17 games in AA) as a catcher. So can't really complain. He was no more than the 4th best in the pen, maybe 5th or lower on the depth charts. If Chavez can get his ERA below his FIP then the Jays win big time. The best case for the Jays is better than the best case for the Royals (Hendriks becomes a solid closer) and higher probability.

Thumbs down. Chavez started off 2015 very well with an ERA of 2.11 through the end of May. It was all downhill from there. He threw 157 innings, the most of his career, and made his last start on September 11. I think that Hendriks has a better chance of giving a club 150 decent innings in 2015 than Chavez. The A's of course will not use him in that role.

I agree with Mike, thumbs down. This is not like the Lind trade. The Lind trade was about reallocation of assets (salary and positional) and they lucked out in the return. Here they traded an asset (minimum salary; decent performance and upside due to age and possible value as a starter) for a player who, if everything goes well, might be a marginal performance upgrade in 2016 but with a higher salary to match. There's almost no upside to this and potential for giving up something useful. It's not likely to have a huge impact on the team either way but the thought process looks bad to me. A small trade but not a good first start to the winter. There is a lot of time left though. This trade makes more sense in a world in which there is almost no budget to bring in free agent starters and a "meh" 5th starter type has value in that scenario.

brutal deal.

4.92era on the road last year. he is not good.

and now we're gonna waste money and assets buying a downgrade of a reliever.

I'm surprised how many seem to think the Jays would use Hendriks in any pressure situations. Just 3 times in September did he come in with a Leverage of 1 or higher. Just twice in August. He was used 3 times in the playoffs in a pen that was so desperate they used David Price as a reliever yet he only came in 3 times - an extra inning game where the go ahead run already scored, Jays ahead by 7, and Jays behind by 5. His only chance here was as a starter and that wasn't going to happen. In save situations he had 36 PA against and gave up a 1.102 OPS (429/444/657).

Sorry guys, Hendriks had near 0 value to the Jays as Gibbons had no confidence in him despite his shiny 135 ERA+. He is a guy with a lifetime 79 ERA+ 5.95 as a starter. He wasn't going to start here. No way, no how except as an emergency situation.

AA is gone, but the unexpected trades continue.

Gibby didn't trust Hendriks in high leverage situation, so it's not a huge loss.

Chavez has dropped the ineffective slider for a cutter and now relies on the curve more.
Last year, he got destroyed in his 2 games against Boston and Baltimore.
He wasn't good in Yankees Stadium but he did OK against NY in Oakland and against the Rays.
His splits make him vulnerable to lineups with many lefties.
And he's very much a fly ball pitcher.

He made 2 million last year, so at least he's cheap.

Thumbs down for me. I'd rather start Hutch.

In 2014, Gibbons did not have confidence in Pillar. That changed in 2015. Gibbons did not have confidence in Pompey and Hendriks in 2015. I was hoping that that too might change in 2016.

His xFIP from June-onwards (using that benchmark) was 3.95. His HR rate skyrocketed during that stretch and his BABIP was .336, while his K and BB rate stayed relatively constant with his norm (7.86 K/9, 3.05 BB/9). He definitely regressed from that point on, but if it was due to an unsustainably high home run rate, then it's fair to say it was not reflective of his true performance. The A's also had a questionable defence.

I tend to agree that the Jays got the worse end of this deal, but Chavez is a good bottom of the rotation option. I would have preferred acquiring him without giving up Hendriks, though.

I don’t really mind the price, I just hate buying pitchers who have career resurgences in a place like oakland.

Kazmir was much better than Chavez in oakland and immediately stunk with Houston. I don't expect chavez to fare much better - but now we're gonna have to watch him start for a while even if he's sucking.

just hate guaranteed contracts at the bottom of the roster.

Chavez had a better FIP on the road than at home. He'll be fine.

Chavez 2yr split as SP: 5.9ip/gs, 103era-, 99fip-

Unfortunately I see that league average performance as more of a ceiling than a median projection.

If he can repeat that we'll be haply though.

and don't be shocked to see Hendriks put up a chavez like performance in that stadium.

If Chavez is used as a 6th starter (ala Happ in the past) then he is useful but if he becomes a top 3 then there probably are big problems. I see him as an insurance policy in exchange for a reliever who is expendable. Not often a reliever switches from no trust to enough trust to get a good shot, hitters it happens often especially with kids. Has any pitcher moved from doghouse to penthouse with Gibbons yet?

Chavez starts in the Bullpen reprising the Estrada role, effective middle Relief until needed to start. He's better than any of the multitude of 5th Starters the Jays threw out there last year, but not by much, just better.

Just look at Gibbon's usage of Hendriks late last year and in the Postseason. That's not someone Gibbons trusted very much. I think Hendriks is a very good Reliever, but Sanchez, Osuna and Cecil are better. Getting a decent Starter for him was a good deal.

Of course, a Rotation of Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, Chavez and Hutchison will be interesting. I just hope the Jays do better.

I don’t think I would have made this trade. They’re sort of similar marginal-starter types, with Chavez more likely to provide some non-terrible starter innings and Hendriks more likely to provide some quality relief innings. Those may be similar value, but I’d rather the Jays aim to have high-upside in every roster spot.

Worse, I think Chavez is far less likely to succeed in his role in Toronto than Hendriks.

Worst, Chavez has just one arb-year remaining before becoming a free agent, while Hendriks has 4 years remaining.

That said, I assume the Jays have done their research and are making this decision on more than simply the numbers that we can look up. They may have good reason to believe they’re selling high on Hendriks.

Or maybe they just felt the need to show some good will to Billy Beane.

I guess I find myself in the minority here. Hendricks (in my opinion) was a testament to Gibbons ability to put guys in the bullpen in roles that allow them to succeed. Every time Hendricks moved up the ladder to a high leverage situation he looked terrible to me.

I also look around the league and feel that relievers have never been more overvalued. A few years ago you couldn't trade a middling reliever for any starter who was good enough to pitch almost 30 games. Personally I have a hard time believing that the true value of relievers has changed or that we were wrong in our conclusions previously. (this is not OBP vs BA or ERA vs WHIP).

All told it was a perfect time for this trade. And it opens up options for next year.

Obviously you'd still hope to see us add another front line starter, but this trades downgrades this from absolutely essential to strong need. It's not that I love Chavez, he's just another option as a swingman (ideally) or to pitch until the trade deadline when we can add another Price (if the offseason doesn't go according to script).

Also, count me amongst those who think that Chad Jenkins is a suitable internal replacement (although we obviously need some lefthanded options).

I'm in favour of this trade. The Jays are focused on 2016, as they should be, given the expiring contacts of Bautista/EE/Dickey and the (hopefully gradual) decline of Donaldson/Tulo/Martin over the next few seasons. Chavez carries some risks, but he has a chance to be a decent starting pitcher and the downside is minimal. His salary will be modest for his projected value (2.3 WAR, according to Steamer) and the Jays will have no financial obligations to him beyond 2016. Good teams almost inevitably need more than five starting pitchers (Anthopoulos came to believe that eight was a good target), so acquiring a player like Chavez is prudent, especially with limited reinforcements in the high minors.

Hendriks may well prove to be a capable reliever for the A's (he might also regress, as many relievers do), but the Jays currently have a greater need in the rotation.

Maybe Paul has a good point about Chavez' deterioration in the second half being related to bad HR luck in good part. I checked his profile on Hit-tracker and he wasn't giving up bombs.

Still,Meh.

They might be selling high on Hendriks, but they are buying high on Chavez.

I also look around the league and feel that relievers have never been more overvalued. A few years ago you couldn't trade a middling reliever for any starter who was good enough to pitch almost 30 games.

Oakland is not getting a middling reliever and Chavez is probably not good enough to stick in the rotation.
Good starting pitching is still very valuable. but replacement level starting pitching is not.
Chavez was 7-15 and 3 of those wins came with 6 or more runs of support. He didn't even average 6 ip in those blowouts.

I would be very surprised if Jenkins couldn't give us that.

Meh, indeed.

This is Jo-Jo Reyes all over.

I seem to recall similar chagrin on the part of some posters at the loss of Graveman in the Donaldson trade, the reasoning being that Graveman had a good chance to be a solid contributor to the Jays' rotation in 2015.

Sometimes you have to trust your evaluators.

I don't expect much from Chavez, but he fills a need. The Jays' rotation was Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, Hutchison, and nobody in particular; Chavez at least covers the spot if the Jays get outbid for all the free agent starters.

Hendriks has potential and extra years of team control, but he didn't pitch in important games after Canada Day. In the second half of the season, he had two holds (in one of which he actually got bombed) and three wins (two in extra innings and one in which he finished the fifth inning). If the Jays are keeping Sanchez and Osuna in the pen, Hendricks would have been the #4 guy in the pen (also behind Cecil), so they didn't really need him.

I rate it as a trade of a C player for another C player.

A thumbs up for this trade - the jays need to deepen the starting pitching depth chart - I don't think Chavez was healthy in the 2nd half when he struggled & while Hendriks had a nice season, I'm a bit skeptical of amount of his velocity increase moving to the pen - I think the Jays sold high on Hendriks.

As trades go this one was interesting. Was it solving a Team need or was it solving a Gibbon's need? I don't think there should be a difference, but that means nothing. I don't know how much time LaCava and Gibbon's spent together discussing the Team, since Shapiro took over. This a move that should be done every year, but unlikely to be as great as acquiring Estrada.

With this acquisition, the Jays now have 5 of the 8 Starters needed for the Season's start. Ideally one addition should come at the 1-2 Rotation spot. A second should come at the 3-4 Rotation spot. The third addition should be at the 5-7 Rotation spot.
#1 - #2: Stroman; New Acqusition;
#3 - #4: Estrada; New Acqusition; Dickey;
#5 - #7: Hutchison; Chavez; New Acquisition.
Trying to pick up a high impact Acqusition at the Trade Deadline is extremely expensive and unlikely to be approve by Shapiro. It behooves LaCava to get all the heaviest lifting done now. Impact Starter (preferably LHP) and an impact Reliever (preferably LHP) are the biggest items left.

It's very hard to evaluate who LaCava is after, but he should be going all out on the the Best Starters because they are the only ones worth losing a Draft Pick over.

I am interested in seeing if Chavez actually makes $5 mil in 2016.
How he is used will determine if he is worth his pay.

Right now Stroman make the rotation based on his results. He has to play himself off the rotation. Dickey & Estrada make the rotation based on their status as expensive veteran starters. Baring injury that is 3 slots. Someone will claim the other 2 slots based on performance. They will be given a spot and their performance will determine if they can keep it.

So I estimate a total of about 9 will be needed for the rotation over the year.
It would be nice if our 5th starter is good. Actually great if our 5th starter is good. In AA's tenure our 5th starter was never good.

When evaluating Chavez, it's important to keep in mind that he's a low-cost, low-risk acquisition. Sure, the Jays could have kept Hendriks and dipped into the free agent market for someone like Leake or Kazmir (who knows, they still might). But those deals can go seriously awry (look at the Dodgers' signing of Brandon McCarthy). With the going rate for WAR being about $8M per, adding Chavez for about $5M or less on a one-year deal is good value with limited risk.

I'm surprised how many seem to think the Jays would use Hendriks in any pressure situations. Just 3 times in September did he come in with a Leverage of 1 or higher. Just twice in August.

Yes, but at that time the Jays had Osuna, Sanchez, Lowe and Hawkins as right-handed options in the bullpen. Gibbons certainly trusted the first three options more than Hendriks, there's no dispute about that. He also trusted Hawkins more than Hendriks, at least for Hawkins' first month with the team.

Hawkins has retired. Lowe is a free agent and may not return. And there's talk of stretching at least one of Sanchez or Osuna out as a starter. Assuming the Jays don't resign Lowe and at least begin the year trying Sanchez in the rotation, who is the team's right-handed setup man? I think before the trade it would have been Hendriks, assuming no free agent acquisitions were made for the bullpen. Now, unless the signs at least one free agent, which it almost certainly has to do, it's probably Tepera or maybe Schultz.

On that note, a few interesting bullpen options were designated for assignment in the last few days, including John Axford, Rex Brothers and Allen Webster.

There are complications all the time. Many things are not straight forward.
For example, Hendriks is controllable for a few years but he has no options left. So to a degree he has to perform.

Thumbs up...Added starter depth at reasonable cost in dollars and basically none in players. Hendriks had little to no value to the Jays...may not even have made the team. I am expecting some in house options for the pen. Watch for Girodo,McFarland Rowen to be given opportunities in ST. In addition, there will still be major league relievers looking for work the end of January.

Chavez is married to a longshore(wo)man which is kind of cool

I'm not crazy about this deal. Chavez is a career bum who found brief success in Oakland, where career bums always seem to find brief success. I think Chavez is going to get clobbered in Toronto and what with the usual bullpen injuries and/or implosions, the Jays are going to miss Hendricks. Especially if Chavez sucks and the resulting hole has to be filled in a panic by Osuna or Sanchez.

Maybe the Jays should take a flyer on Chad Gaudin while they're at it - he was good in Oakland too.

As long as the Jays aren't just automatically slotting Chavez into the rotation as a cheap alternative to a higher-priced free agent or trade acquisition, I like the deal.  LaCava has been emphasizing that the Jays need a lot of starting-pitcher depth, beyond the top-five starters.  Chavez, like Hutchison, fits perfectly in the role of a 6th starter who can compete for a starting job.  But unlike Hutchison, he has lots of bullpen experience, so he can begin the season as the long man or 7th man in the bullpen, and then slide into the rotation if others are injured or slumping.  (I admit that Chavez hasn't been particularly impressive as a reliever in his career, but I note that he was very good in his 4 relief appearances last season -- although that's a tiny sample, of course.)

I'm fine with adding Chavez to the spring-training competition for the 5th starter position.  If he looks better than Hutchison or Sanchez in a starting role, give him the job.  But he should earn it in a competition with the other candidates.

Although he won't have the advantage of pitching in a pitcher's park in 2016, he should be helped by the quality of the Jays defence, both at middle infield and in the outfield.  I also think it's quite possible that Oakland traded him mostly to save money -- they probably thought they could find a cheaper alternative, instead of paying Chavez's projected $4.7-million salary.  In that case, the Jays are taking advantage of their higher payroll to obtain a potential starting pitcher from a lower-payroll team, while giving up an expendable reliever.

exactly CF...that is why the trade happened. Jays past relations with A's may have given them first kick at the salary dump. I am amazed at the negative comments. This deal has much upside and no downside imo. At worst, it can be neutral.

Seems to me like we got the worse player, for more money, and less years of control.

:(

When evaluating Chavez, it's important to keep in mind that he's a low-cost, low-risk acquisition.

It's not sure he's low cost. He could make 10 times more than Stroman or even Sanchez. If he pushes Hutch out of the rotation and is worse than him that's just wasted money.

As far as low-risk, I don't know what to say. Who do you consider to be high-risk? Santana?

This deal has much upside and no downside imo

Really? Is that how you felt about Jo-Jo Reyes and Tomo Ohka?

There is a complexity with Deals made with Oakland. As deals go I believe Oakland got the better pitcher. Personally I like the deal for the Jays very much, they got who they wanted.

The changes that Liam Hendriks made for 2015 got him pitching better. He always had good stuff with control in the minors and good numbers, with his changes he now pitches very well at the MLB level. As a result with Pitchers of Hendrik's ability and talent, they use up options long before arbitration sets in. He'll be an Athletic for the next three or four years; being very cheap the first two or three; and traded before the fourth. If it turns out that he can Start!

Jesse Chavez was a barely average #5 Starter who learned a new pitch which made him a much better Starter, but possibly not a better pitcher. He should be an effective #4 - #5 Starter if needed, and a decent Reliever until then, basically what the Jays need. He's pricier than Estrada was ($4.5 - $5.0 MM) in his last year of free agency, so unless he's as effective, this is his last year here.

Chavez lost 15 games last year. Something that not even Ricky Romero could match on 30+ starts.
So, I offer you the trivia of the day. Who's the last Blue Jays pitcher to lose 15 games in a season?

But unlike Hutchison, he has lots of bullpen experience, so he can begin the season as the long man or 7th man in the bullpen, and then slide into the rotation if others are injured or slumping.  (I admit that Chavez hasn't been particularly impressive as a reliever in his career, but I note that he was very good in his 4 relief appearances last season -- although that's a tiny sample, of course.)

Reality is that Chavez has a deep arsenal of pitches, kinda like Stroman, except none of then are plus. What you want in the bullpen is someone with 2 good pitches. So, unsurprisingly, Chavez has been average as a starter, at least for a couple of months at a time, and bad as a reliever.

Jesses Chavez lost 10 of 15 games because his offense scored 3 or fewer runs. Trivia question: Of the two teams who has the better offence?

SIGN John Axford for 1- 2 Million or 2/5 Million, he was DFA from the Rockies after 25 saves last year and he was paid 1-2.6 MM.

Felix Doubront was 2-2 in Oakland and 1-1 in Toronto.

What does it tell you that they couldn't get any offensive piece for Chavez?
Instead they chose to improve their rotation by trading him for a reliever with upside.

Pubster,

Chavez is by far the better player. A starting pitcher is far more valuable than a mid inning reliever. The money is not an issue. You won't find an experienced starter with decent numbers for less. The years of control is a positive not a negative. Jays still have a plethora of young arms on the way and would prefer imo shorter contracts for vets so as they are not blocking younger prospects who are ready. 4 years of control means nothing for a player who might not even make your team

So, I offer you the trivia of the day. Who's the last Blue Jays pitcher to lose 15 games in a season?

My first instinct was Erik Hanson. A quick look on BBref shows that he did in fact lose 17 games for the Jays in 1996.

We also signed Humberto Quintero to catch in Buffalo, which Stoeten takes as a sign that the plan for next year is to have Thole catching Dickey.

Quintero is an extraordinarily average journeyman, but he does have this awesome moment to his 'credit':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhefsiQTzJg

Liam Hendricks seemed to struggle in high leverage situations but his numbers out of the bullpen look great.

I hope I'm wrong about Chavez but I don't think he can be a starting pitcher in the AL East.

Anyone surprised the Dwight Smith wasn't protected in the rule v/5 draft? 

lots of interesting prospects exposed this year, including 6 from the Stros top 30 and 7 from the Cards. 

With our depth issues and space on the 40 man, this seems the best time in years to make a pick - lots of pitching options. 

This trade has me thinking about Ben Revere...

Liam costs about $500,000 (ish) and has four years of control. Chavez costs about $4,500,000 and has next year of control. Chavez is (perhaps) a bit better than Liam - but he will cost $4,000,000 (ish) more.

Which brings me to Ben Revere - Ben will be paid $6,200,000 next year. He'll play in 160 (ish) games and get about 650 at bats and score 100(ish) runs as our lead off hitter. He is a VERY GOOD lead off hitter and a more than adequate left fielder. BUT - already some here have talked about Ben being let go (traded) because of his salary - and now we're going to spend $4,000,000 MORE for a rotation (perhaps) guy - 4 big that we could have been using to ensure that there is the 6 large available that Ben will earn next year. Personally, I see very little difference between Twiddle Liam and Twiddle Jesse. IF - when all is said and done - we end up losing Revere over the additional 4 large for Chavez - I'll be pissed.

Of the difference from 2014/15 and 2015/16, the Jays need Starters and Relievers now but just Relievers last year.

Last year, (just to use players who made the MLB roster) they claimed Justin Smoak off waivers from Seattle and Chris Colabello off waivers from Minnesota.
Traded C Santiago Nessy to K.C. for Liam Hendriks; traded 1B Adam Lind to Milwaukee for Marco Estrada; traded CF Anthony Gose to Detroit for Devon Travis; traded 3B Brett Lawrie, LHP Sean Nolin, RHP Kendall Graveman and SS Franklin Barretto to Oakland for Josh Donaldson; and, traded J.A. Happ to Seattle Mariners for Michael Saunders.
Sign Free Agent LHP Jeff Francis to Minor League deal with Spring Training invite; signed Hitting Coach Brook Jacoby; signed Free Agent C Russell Martin; signed Free Agent CF Ezequiel Carrera to Minor League deal with Spring Training invite; and signed Free Agent IF Munenori Kawasaki to Minor League deal with Spring Training invite.
Extended Q.O. to Melky Cabrera which was declined and (Thank God) was unable to resign him. Of course more was done, but takes to long to type.

This year (by November 21st) they've signed Free Agent C Luis Hurtado to Minor League deal with Spring Training invite and Free Agent C Humberto Quintero to Minor League deal with Spring Training invite. Given Marco Estrada a Q.O., but resigned him. Traded Reliever Liam Hendriks for Jesse Chavez.

It's early yet everyone, relax. There's more to come.

Interestingly, the Phillies exposed Alberto Tirado, who was part of their return for Ben Revere, in the Rule 5 draft.

He's got the profile of many of the most intriguing arms in the Rule 5 draft, with a fastball in the upper 90s, control issues and no experience in the upper minors.

@Mylegacy

First off Revere is not a "very good" leadoff hitter. He has a career OBP of .328. He is acceptable as a leadoff hitter. If Travis is healthy, Revere is the Jays' 8th or 9th best hitter and belongs at the bottom of the lineup.

Secondly, you are misunderstanding the desire by some to trade Revere. It has nothing to do with salary just allocation of resources. The Jays have Pompey who might already be as good as Revere and certainly has more upside. By trading Revere, you are able to move a piece that you can replace easily for something you need. I personally would rather see Pompey every day than Revere because his upside is so much higher and with better defense and excellent speed I think his floor is pretty high too. (baseball reference has Pompey having a higher WAR with the Jays last year in fewer than half the PAs)"

I am fine if the Jays don't trade Revere, it's all about what value you can get, but trading him or not has zero to do with getting Chavez who has a very manageable salary.

Why are we talking about pitcher wins again? To kindasorta quote our fearless leader (of Canada), it's 2015.

I saw that too Thomas.  The Phills must like Tirado too - he's certainly the better of the two prospects we sent for Revere. 

It seems to me that a lot of teams view the inflexible requirement to keep the player on the roster all season as enough of a deterrent that they are willing to leave the lower level guys available.  

It's the same jump that Osuna and Castro made, but it's harder to see for Tirado with those control issues.

I am not surprised that Smith was not protected.No-one will take him. More surprised about Burns but I guess Jays don't see him as a major league player. Might have been inclined to protect Taylor Cole as I can see a team taking him as pitchers can more easily be kept and hidden at the back of a pen. I would like to see the Jays try Cole as a reliever because of his high strikeout totals. And I do indeed see the Jays making a selection or 2...pitchers only. Just a little cash lost if player(s) returned.

PeterG, Burns has more potential value to us than Smith next season, so I'm surprised in that sense, but we did leave him unprotected last year too, and he actually had a worse season this year - but he's also one year further along developmentally so I could see him going.  Smith is our closest OF prospect to the bigs and was our highest ranked prospect left unprotected, so I'm surprised about him given 5 open spots on the 40 man.  

I like the idea of Cole out of the pen for the same reason you do, but there are better pitching prospects available than Cole IMO. 

Last year was a strong class of rule v draftees, but really only Deshields Jr. and Herrera (the gem of the past few years) had a legit impact, with a few guys that stuck who might still be valuable down the road - Canha and Graham maybe. 

It's a crapshoot.  does anyone have any picks they'd like us to make?  Last year Mike Green called it on Canha as been worth a look.  what are we doing with five open spots on the 40 man?   

The Jays have Pompey who might already be as good as Revere

And he might not be. What are you going to do if Pompey isn't as good as Revere? What if Saunders never plays in the outfield again? That could mean a whole lot of Ezequiel Carrera, who is certainly not as good as Revere.

I'm a fan of having one legit backup for all positions, but I don't see the need for two.  We've got Pillar, Bautista, and one of Revere, Saunders and Pompey as three / four.  Carerra (or a MLFA) is just fine - good in fact - as a 5th OF.

If you can get value for an OF, do it. 

Quintero is an extraordinarily average journeyman, but he does have this awesome moment to his 'credit': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhefsiQTzJg

OK! If somehow, the Jays end up playing game 5 of the ALDS against the Rangers, I want Quintero catching.

Much better than what happened to Martin. At least from the team with the catcher POV.

not to rehash it again, i would have been unhappy signing chavez as a free agent even at this price. not the kind of guy i want to be stuck having to give innings to. and i'm not overly encouraged that our new management targetted this type of guy right off the bat.

"What are you going to do if Pompey isn't as good as Revere?"

we'll be forced to make do without revere's 2war, then.

thing is, even worst case pompey is still a huge defensive upgrade.

I'm surprised at the amount of hate there is for Chavez. He's not an ace by any stretch, but his numbers the past two years + his projections for 2016 all point to a pretty good starter. Losing four years of Hendriks is the downside, and that's why I have mixed feelings on the deal itself, but Chavez is an upgrade. Potentially a big one if someone like Sanchez was pencilled into the rotation instead.

If the years of control were a little closer (like if Hendriks had only 2 years of control vs. 1 for Chavez) then it would have been a great deal for the Jays. With four for Hendriks, the value likely tips over in Oakland's favor, but with where the Jays are on the win curve for 2016, this move is likely far better for the organization. When you factor that relievers are a bit of an uncertainty year to year, it makes a bit more sense for the Jays. Losing value from 2017-19, but they are focusing primarily on 2016. A reliever is far easier to find than a starter or position player.

funny story - the signing of Estrada and adding of Chavez have actually made our fangraphs depth chart projections worse, not better.

@Parker

You have to take some risks and this is a very small one. Pompey is probably better than Revere right now. Remember, he had a higher WAR this season with Jays in fewer than half the ABs and that was a bad season for Pompey. Carerra and Saunders make fine 4th and 5th OFers and even Colabello could play there on occasion if you really needed. What happens if two OFers don't pan out? Well, if you use that hypothetical, you are always screwed. What happens in Encarnacion gets more injury prone and Collebello regresses? What happens if Stroman gets hurt again and Dickey gets worse? You simply aren't going to have endless quality backups at every position.

What happens if ?

Well we've been pretty well trained in watching the jays perform below expectations for virtually any reason. I suspect that it will feel strangely comfortable.

Pompey's defensive numbers in the majors are still too small a sample to conclude definitively that he's better than Revere, though I'll concede that yeah, this is almost certainly the case.

My point isn't that Pompey isn't any good though, it's that we don't yet know for sure that he's any good. Smart organizations don't bet on a prospect's performance to fill a hole, they let the prospect force his way into the lineup and take the lesser player's job from him.

Everyone assumed Pompey was ready to step into a starting role at the beginning of last season, but he wasn't. He might not be ready this year, either. Making it to the majors at a young age might be a good indicator of future success, but it's still no guarantee - the last guy who did this with the Jays still hasn't established himself as a full-time player after eight seasons.

The Jays outfield isn't exactly a confirmed strength going into 2016. Bautista could be the worst defensive RF in baseball next year if given full-time reps. Saunders needs to show he's healthy before the team can count on him. Neither player should be counted on for a full season in the field. Pillar is coming off one strong season, which is very promising, but a defensive regression is likely. Even with that said, he's still the team's only real lock for a full-time outfield role.

I mean, other than Ben "TRADE HIM NOW" Revere.

"...Making it to the majors at a young age might be a good indicator of future success, but it's still no guarantee - the last guy who did this with the Jays still hasn't established himself as a full-time player after eight seasons....."

Yes, exactly.  This relates to the points about Pompey that I was trying to make in the other thread.  To assume that Pompey is ready to take over from Pillar is still too much of a gamble, in my view.  He might turn out to be a great player, and I certainly hope he does, but there are still too many question marks in my view.  Why did the Jays keep giving him so much time at LF last season in Buffalo and New Hampshire (a third of his playing time there) if he's a sure-fire major-league centre-fielder?   Let's wait and see him battle for CF and win the job, and then the Jays can decide whether Pillar can be traded.

Wins:
Someone has to win games. Someone has to be Pitcher of Record. That Team's Offense must be good enough to put up enough runs to Win. When that happens, someone gets the Win, usually the better pitcher, but not as often as once thought. There is an arbitrary designation to when Wins are awarded, possibly contrary to logic and common sense. And sometimes it's just luck. Despite all other available stats, Wins will always be significant, because they don't require "calculating results"/thinking. Wins are just a record of which Team wins and how well that Team is doing.

Revere:
Sometimes small sample size is all there is to work with, regularly ignoring what it shows is possibly foolish and possibly negligent. Jose Bautista, Ben Revere, Kevin Pillar and Michael Saunders have career stats and each subsequent game modifies those stats/career averages. Jose Bautista is a stud and when 100% healthy, even his Defense is very good. The Jays will never get full value for him in any trade, so keeping him is easy. Kevin Pillar is becoming a good hitter and a Defensive Star. His career numbers did not completely suggest this improvement, so knowing whether it will continue is difficult. His trade value is very high and should be considered as an option. Ben Revere is an average at RF, a little below average at CF and a little above at LF. His career numbers suggest he hits quite well. He's effective as leadoff batter. His trade value is decent but not anywhere as good as Pillar's. Michael Saunders will hit quite well, possibly even very well. What is unknown is how well he plays Defense, how well the knee holds up. The Jays can't really be sure until Spring Training. His trade value is minimal. Dalton Pompey's MLB career is small sample size, but not indicative of his future career. His Defense is very good, even possibly better. He runs extremely well to even game-changing wow. But how he will hit is a mystery. I don't know if the Jays want to go there now. His trade value is poor to very good depending on how he's evaluated by other GMs. Other Outfielders are what they are, 4th OF and not that significant. In case of injury, they fill in until the stud prospect is called up. I don't know what the Jays will do, but at least they have options here.

I'm a bit puzzled by the reaction of some to this trade.

Chavez had a better FIP and xFIP as a starter last year than any of Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada, Hutchison or Sanchez.
Relatively speaking, Chavez will be paid squat.

Hendiks is a good reliever with 4 years of control. That's why this seems to me a fair trade. Some think Hendriks can become an effective starter and make this deal look bad. I don't see that whatsoever.

He's had 171 IP as a starter with a 5.22 FIP, 4.66 xFIP. When was the last time a failed starter became a good reliever and then was successfully converted back to starting? Even Wade Davis failed miserably when the Royals tried to do so.

I'm surprised at the amount of hate there is for Chavez.

He would have been good depth--on a minor league contract.

When you spend money towards an average player, you move the team towards the .500 mark.
They could have traded Revere for a B prospect and added the saved money to what they'll pay Chavez.
They could have signed a pretty good starter with that.

The team needs to replace Buerhle's 200 innnings and Chavez isn't it.
If the plan was to put him in the pen and stretch in late in the summer, that could possibly work,
But he would probably be very unhappy and massively overpaid to boot.

...When was the last time a failed starter became a good reliever and then was successfully converted back to starting?...

It's the Reinvent The Wheel Syndrome too many people are affected with. Everyone thinks they can make someone out of nothing. This article: http://jaysjournal.com/2015/11/22/toronto-blue-jays-defense-could-dictate-next-pitching-move-mlb-hot-stove-news/ describes Jesse's assets and how and why they'll effect what Toronto does next. (Someone else wrote it up so I don't need to.)

"Pompey's defensive numbers in the majors are still too small a sample to conclude definitively that he's better than Revere, though I'll concede that yeah, this is almost certainly the case."

we know that revere is sub par defensively in CF and only decent in the corners.

everything we know about Pompey - scouting reports, eye test, and yes his small sample defensive numbers - says he is a good defensive CF.

"My point isn't that Pompey isn't any good though, it's that we don't yet know for sure that he's any good. Smart organizations don't bet on a prospect's performance to fill a hole, they let the prospect force his way into the lineup and take the lesser player's job from him."

Smart orginazations bet on good prospects over marginal vets all the time. And pompey's milb performance is definitely forcing his way into the lineup.

STEAMER 600pa OF projections

Bautista .870ops, 137wrc+, 3.7war
Pillar .729ops, 97wrc+, 2.8war
Pompey .707ops, 93wrc+, 1.7war
Saunders .734ops, 100wrc+, 1.7war
Revere .684ops, 87wrc+, 0.8war
Carrera .650ops, 77wrc+, -0.3war

Marcel

Bautista .867ops
Saunders .744
Pompey .738
Pillar .722
Revere .712
Carrer .696

he projects to be the worst of the 5 (and only marginally better tthan carrera) but even if the others implode you're still talking about a $7m #9 hitter in this lineup with middling to poor defense.

if we can get another team to value his AVG/SPD/CF combo we have to jump on it imo.

I think Saunders + Pompey gives you enough of a safety net that you don't need Revere and his 6.7M
I feel like that money helps the team more if its spent on pitching.
Would Saunders/Pompey plus Lowe help the Jays more than Revere/Saunders? I think so.

Chavez had a better FIP and xFIP as a starter last year than any of Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada, Hutchison or Sanchez.

This reminds me of when the Big Hurt came to Toronto.
He too looked good if you just looked at the stats and didn't try to understand what produced them.
I don't understand how Brandon Morrow hasn't made you sick of FIP yet.
FIP is dependent on strikeout rates. Those depends on the hitters faced.
Graveman is the only Oakland starter with worse FIP than Chavez.
Graveman is also the only Oakland starter who gave more hits than Chavez.

I think Billy Beane wins this one even if Hendriks never show any improvements.
It's likely that Chavez would not have made the Oakland rotation next year.

In other news the Blue Jays have signed Umberto Quintero, a veteran AAA catcher.
This might indicate that Thole is projected to start in Toronto.

Smart organizations don't bet on a prospect's performance to fill a hole, they let the prospect force his way into the lineup and take the lesser player's job from him.

I don't know how you force your way into the lineup. Do you have to wait for the lesser player to be injured?
If we wait until Pompey is out of options and trade him for a low return because he hasn't proven anything, is that smart? Maybe the mistake was to bring him up at 20, but that's done.

I think smart organizations take contributions from the players who earn the minimum so they can reallocate the money to areas of need, like pitching.

Money is relative. LaCava basically said he had enough money to do whatever he wanted. So until we find out different, arguing about the merits of how much each Pitcher would be paid is just noise.

I read this: ...According to Fangraphs.com, Chavez is a 80.1% contact pitcher. When he’s in the zone, that number climbs to 85.1%. That contact resulted in more groundballs than he’s induced in his entire career at 207. He’s also thrown more innings (157) than ever, as well. A more accurate way to look at it is a GB rate of 43.1%.... I think it was a good deal.

The Blue Jays will need a minimum of eight quality Starters this season. Beyond that, anyone will do.
Marcus Stroman is a #1/2 Starter on this Team. Someone to be a #1 Starter or to be a #2 Starter must be acquired. Basically the New Acquisition needs to be better than everyone but Stroman.
Marco Estrada and R.A. Dickey are Mid-Rotation Starters. They shouldn't have to be more than they are. Acquiring another Mid-Rotation Starter as a subsequent acquisition would be very nice but is not absolutely mandatory.
Drew Hutchison and Jesse Chavez are End Of The Rotation Starters, more of the #5 - #7 Starter types. Ideally Hutchison starts in Buffalo as #6 Starter, while Chavez starts in the Bullpen as #7 Starter. Someone else to start in the Minors as #8 could be enough.

We have five Starters now and need three more. Whether all are Free Agents or some are Trades doesn't matter. Who they acquire and how they fit in with this team is what matters.

The Jays outfield isn't exactly a confirmed strength going into 2016. Bautista could be the worst defensive RF in baseball next year if given full-time reps.

Ryan Braun and Shin Soo Choo certainly hope you are right, but aside from Choo (I think he's got pole position on this one) it's a fair point about Bautista.  Love the guy and he still has the cannon arm but his mobility is declining before our eyes.  This is always why it's hard for me to imagine the team resigning both EE and Jose - we don't even know if Jose can play a passable 1B and his one defensive tool - the arm- is undervalued at 1b.  He's the better bet to resign IMO, as a DH / part-time OF - I don't like making moves for purely sentimental reasons, but he has been the face of the team for the past 6 years and could likely be signed for a short term deal as a 36 year old. 

He too looked good if you just looked at the stats

Actually, Thomas did pretty much exactly what most 39-year-old baseball players do…he got worse (his wRC+ went from 139 to 127 to 101 from ages 38 to 40).

I don't really see how adding a 32-year-old starting pitcher on a one-year contract compares to adding a slow, poor-fielding, 39-year-old DH on a two-year deal.

I've been on other sites and they have these nasty creatures that are called Trolls. Simple minded creatures with simple pleasures. Tending to always write disparaging things about the favorite team. Never "saying" anything nicer and always using a contrary point of view; as if they were 'trolling' for a response. Not that they abound this site. I suspect no one to be so despicable here. But it makes you wonder, why not here?

Cause the Box has too much class! 

In all honesty Richard, I think the moderators and the senior members here have done a great job keeping the discourse positive and focused on the game. 

For all we complain about, Jose Bautista is consistent in all he does. He gives the best Defense possible, depending on his health. When he's healthy, that very well indeed. He's gives exceptional Offense up to MVP stature, also depending on health. We talk about his age, but he has less go wrong with him, than occurs for Encarnacion. But even at his age, the Jays have absolutely no one who can replace his Offense. Despite that, his chances of remaining a Blue Jay for his career are remote. About all I expect to see from him in 2017 is a Draft Pick.

"...When you spend money towards an average player, you move the team towards the .500 mark...."

That might be true if you're acquiring an average player to be your "ace" or your closer, but it's not true if you're acquiring an average pitcher to be your 5th or 6th starter.  In that role, "average" is perfectly fine.  In fact, a pitcher who is reliably "average" might be better than a pitcher such as Hutchison or Sanchez who has a greater risk of serious problems or injury in a rotation role.

That's not to say that I want Chavez to be the 5th starter.  I want to see a spring-training competition, so that the Jays can determine the best pitcher without any assumptions or any pressure to choose the better-known guy.   Remember the spring of 2013, when most people assumed that Ricky Romero would be the 5th starter?  In the end, we were sure glad that the "average" J. A. Happ was available, despite our earlier complaints that Happ's new contract was too generous for a presumed reliever.

If anyone, including everyone who doubts this Team will be any good, thinks that Jesse Chavez is in the Starting Rotation in April 2016, you are deluded. He is meant to be #7 or #8 Starter for the Jays. Drew Hutchison will be a very good Starter when he gets his confidence back, but right now he's tentatively to be the Jays #6 Starter in Buffalo. Jesse Chavez Is a very good #5 Starter, but nothing more. He does not become anything more than someone who follows Drew Hutchison into the Rotation.

When Marcus Stroman was injured, both Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez (# 5 and #6 Starters) went into the Rotation. When it turned out Norris had trouble getting people out, Marco Estrada (#7 Starter) joined the Rotation. When Aaron Sanchez went down, a bunch of people named who? (#8 ???) filled the pot.

It does not matter what anyone thinks, the Jays are still at least three Starters short from having enough quality Starters for next year.

Late to the party, but I agree with Scottt and others (his quote):

I think Billy Beane wins this one even if Hendriks never show any improvements. It's likely that Chavez would not have made the Oakland rotation next year.

The trade seems to be a terrible reallocation of money. Hendriks not only showed improvement in his role, but also rare improvement in his stuff, somehow reaching 97mph with his fastball this season. Chavez imploded over the last half of each of his last two seasons, losing over 2mph of velocity in 2015 from April to September. Straight up, I see this as a downgrade in talent and team contribution for 2016. Add in their respective salaries and the lost years of control, and I have no idea how this is viewed as anything other than a terrible deal.

Well, it's viewed by some as a good deal because it's a starter for a reliever, and one who wasn't trusted in high leverage situations by the manager.  If you think WAR has value in assessing trades, steamer has Hendricks at 1.2 for next year (he was 1.5 by fWAR this year) and Chavez at 2.0 (2.3 this year). 

Can Chavez succeed in the dome - worse pitching environment, dramatically better defense?  Can Hendricks continue to improve into a quality set up guy, or transition to the pen?  Friday's BP article certainly has him as a potential relief ace.

It's starter vs. reliever and how you determine their relative value.  I think it's a legit question, not a done 'win' for either team.

It's starter vs. reliever and how you determine their relative value.

More accurately, it's a converted starter for a converted reliever. In the two seasons that Chavez has started, he's degraded prior to 150 innings pitched.

http://jaysjournal.com/2015/11/22/blue-jays-in-focus-chavezs-arm-endurance-a-cause-for-concern/

Projection sites seem to have him pegged for ~140 next season. If we're truly in a championship window, I don't see how this guy helps in the playoffs. Maybe the plan is for him to be part of the regular season puzzle that gets the Jays to October.

Yes, starters are worth more than relievers. I would just hope that flipping a quality, controllable reliever at roughly 10x the cost (MLBTR estimates 4.7M for Chavez in 2016) would yield more than two-thirds of a 4th or 5th starter.

for me, picking up a barely mediocre pitcher from oakland is like picking up a barely mediocre hitter from colorado. it'll likely end up in disappointment.

add to that the fact that this move has a very real chance of weakening both our pen AND our rotation if chavez goes back to being non-oakland chavez.....while paying more for both, if as I suspect we now pay cash for some fungible veteran relievers.


the upside with this move is that it'll get the fans back on Hutch's side if Chavez is struggling in his place.

Well, it's viewed by some as a good deal because it's a starter for a reliever, and one who wasn't trusted in high leverage situations by the manager.

Will the manager trust Chavez in high leverage situation or will he be gone after the first baserunner in the 5th?
That's the manager that didn't trust Dickey with a 7 run lead.

Can Chavez succeed in the dome - worse pitching environment, dramatically better defense?

I dunno if the defense helps much because Chavez is a fly ball pitcher. Maybe not unless you take both Revere and Bautista out of the outfield. I'm really worried about Chavez pitching in Boston, New york, Baltimore, etc...

SK in NJ - same for me. A quick look at Chavez's Fangraphs page is really making me wonder where all this hate is coming from. Pretty solid guy at the back end of the rotation from my chair here.

Drew Hutchison will be a very good Starter when he gets his confidence back.

I don't think that's the confidence. I think most teams have him figured out and he needs to make some adjustments. Chavez for example, dropped the slider and added a cutter. Hutch has an excellent slider, but his fastball sits at 92 and his change wasn't very good last year.

That might be true if you're acquiring an average player to be your "ace" or your closer, but it's not true if you're acquiring an average pitcher to be your 5th or 6th starter.

I think we need that 5th starter to be a player that's still developing, like Sanchez. Chavez as a long relief guy, would be perfectly fine. He can probably give you 2 good months in the rotation before running out of gas. I could see him on a 6 man rotation, but, you know, only when I close my eyes. I don't expect to actually see that.

Last year Donaldson said he was hoping the Jays would trade for Chavez, which says something.

One thing about Chavez is that his first-half perfomances over the last couple of years have been solid. Maybe the Jays feel that those stretches are more representative of his potential (glass half-full). Of course, the glass half-empty view is that his second-half performances indicate that he lacks stamina/has peaked/has been figured out by the league/has injury issues, etc. Take your pick.

Personally, I think Shapiro and Lacava are bright enough that they and their evaluators must see something more in Chavez than "mediocre pitcher benefitting from pitcher's park full stop."

Hendiks is a good reliever with 4 years of control. That's why this seems to me a fair trade. Some think Hendriks can become an effective starter and make this deal look bad. I don't see that whatsoever.
He's had 171 IP as a starter with a 5.22 FIP, 4.66 xFIP. When was the last time a failed starter became a good reliever and then was successfully converted back to starting? Even Wade Davis failed miserably when the Royals tried to do so.

171 IP, 5.22 FIP, 4.66 xFIP is a failed starter?  Greg Maddux started worse than that.  Roy Halladay was about the same. 

For what it's worth, Chavez started his career with 155 pretty stinky innings out of the pen.  How often does a failed reliever become a decent starter? I guess he has, so it is possible that he will keep it going. 

I don't see one legit #2 out of dickey/estrada/chavez. or really even one reliable #3.

and we're paying them $30m.

Perhaps more than anytime in franchise history, the 2016 Blue Jays need marginal wins. Chavez might only be a 0.75 win improvement over Hendricks in 2016, but that's huge. Is it worth giving up the extra years of control? I think it is, and I think getting a 2 WAR starter for a guy who a year ago was waiver wire fodder is a solid move.

2war is generous though and overstates his reliability.

2015: 2.3fwar, 1.6bwar, 1.4ra9war
2014: 1.3fwar, 1.2bwar, 1.8ra9war

does losing a good reliever to guarantee a starting spot to a 1.5war guy really make us better?

either way, the fact that we are paying $30m for a trio of older pitchers who are either a weak 2/3/4 or a mediocre 3/4/5 doesn't fill me with hope - especially since i'm almost certain it's going to be followed by spending millions more on middle relievers.

the fact that we (hopefully) have a healthy stroman and the Osuna/cecil/sanchez back of the bullpen all year should mean our pitching is improved regardless, but i'll be prettt annoyed if our offseason consists of spending $40m on depth pitchers.

For what it's worth, BBRef has Chavez as a 1.4 win/season player over the last 2 years, as a completely average pitcher throwing 150 innings (he's given up quite a few unearned runs over the last 2 years).  Chavez, by the way, threw 6 wonderful innings out of the pen last year to begin the season.  His ERA in the rotation was 4.37.  Further, in his career, his line with nobody on is .246/.309/.379 and with runners on is .292/.351/.480.  He had similar splits in 2015.  Fangraphs WAR does not take account of this kind of problem (which is why it views Drew Hutchison much more favourably than BBRef WAR does). 

I expect 140-150 innings with an ERA of about 4.25 in the RC, and 1-1.5 WAR. 

I haven't read the whole thread so my apologies if someone has mentioned this previously, but this has to improve the Jays leverage when negotiating with FA pitcher or for pitchers in trades.

The Jays can now credibly say, "No we'll go with what we have" if the demands are too steep, rather than, the agent/team pointing out the gaping holes in the rotation.

I am skeptical that the Jays will be able to land the sort of front-end starter that everyone clamoring for, but I fail to see how this deal decreases their chances of doing so. At the very worst, they're still the same. It is November let's wait for another shoe to drop.

If Osuna, Sanchez & Cecil are all in the pen and hopefully healthy, then the pen is probably not a problem.

D Price is a #1. We do not have that. Due to the scarcity of that caliber pitcher, we may not have that.

Stroman, Estrada & Dickey could be #2s. Stroman has been quite good in the Majors. Estrada was very good last year. Dickey has a good history of 200+ IP.
That is 3 quality pitchers in our rotation if they are healthy. 32 starts.

For the remaining 5 pitchers needed by the rotation to survive the year we have Hutch & Chavez to start with.

I see it more like:

1 top of the rotation guy (#1/2) in Stroman likely to be a 4+war guy.

4 depth guys (i.e. #3-5) in dickey, estrada, chavez, hutch likely to come in around 1.5-2.5war.....but any of whom could blow up completely without surprising anyone.

Agreed with Paul D on the need for marginal wins.  As I read this thread I'm reminded of a BP article from last year on Brian Sabean's 'moneyball' advantage over other teams - the article notes that Sabean does the sort of things that many think you are absolutely not supposed to do - multi-year contracts for relievers or non-elite position players, signing vets into their 30s to long term deals.  Why?  The range of performance variance is very narrow. 

Author Matthew Trueblood concludes:  "The Giants pay for stability, and to stay on the right side of average everywhere. They pay for track records, even though track records come with age. That’s an expensive and unsexy way to win, but it’s definitely a way to win. With each ring, their fan base gets more secure and their pockets get deeper. It’s only getting easier for Sabean to do what he does best. It’s not an exploitation of a market inefficiency; it’s an unusual willingness to be the market inefficiency"

Not sure we should be taking this approach wholeheartedly unless Rogers wants to be generous with payroll going forward, but it's sure working for San Fran. 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25784

I think the Bullpen was discussed between Shapiro and LaCava, because that's normal stuff they do. If you look you can find were LaCava talked about the Bullpen, something about "letting the Bullpen come to them". He talked about the needs of the Rotation talking precedence over the Bullpen right now.

Brett Cecil, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna and Jesse Chavez form the Bullpen right now. The remaining three Roster spots might not be filled until late January, or even later. And that's just fine, because they know they must be better.

"Perhaps more than anytime in franchise history, the 2016 Blue Jays need marginal wins."


Agreed, and I think that's the way the Jays are operating. For where the Jays are on the win curve, the value of wins added for 2016 far exceed the value added for 2017-19 (when Hendriks would be arbitration eligible). That one extra win (over Hendriks) that Chavez is projected to add for 2016 is a huge difference for a team in the Jays current spot. If they were a sub-.500 team and projected to finish there, then obviously the added value would be meaningless. They obviously, and rightfully, feel they have a small window to win with this current group. So this deal is likely a little bit of saving money and a lot of trying to maximize as many wins as possible for 2016.

Now there are certainly reasons to be against the trade. I think Hendriks was one of the best relievers on the team this season, and while many here were justifying Gibbons for not using him in high leverage situations for some reason, just as many (me included) felt he should have been right there with Cecil in the set-up role and given more chances. So having four years of control over a reliever that looks like a legit 8th/9th inning option is valuable.

The Jays obviously felt that it would be easier (or cheaper) to find a bullpen replacement than a starter, and they probably looked at Chavez's peripherals and lack of perceived value (as evidenced by the reaction to the trade) as a way of getting a starter they like without giving up a top prospect or being burdened with a ton of salary. Whether Chavez will pitch well enough to justify that, only time will tell.

I think if the Jays window was a little less urgent, then they may have stretched Hendriks out or kept him in the pen, but with 2016 being essentially the end of the AA window period, they either had to maximize 2016 wins or go the opposite direction. I think people expecting them to overpay for a SP were setting themselves up for disappointment. That's not how Rogers works, and definitely not Shapiro.

3 minor league signings - 1B Casey Kotchman, 28 year old 2B David Adams who struggled badly in his one shot in the bigs with the Yanks in 2013 and SS Jiovani Mier from the Houston org, a former top 100 prospect and first rounder, he's still only 25, can play round the IF and has finally started to demonstrate some OB skills in the high minors this season after struggling mightily with the bat the past 2. 

I hope that Rogers & the FO prove me wrong, but I'm not encouraged by the direction of the offseason so far - the jays have added 2 pitchers (Estrada & Chavez) on short-term commitments - meaning that after 2016, when the contracts of Bautista, EE, Dickey, Cecil, Saunders, Smoak, Chavez etc. expire (about 50m)the team can really cut payroll and change direction especially if they move Donaldson,Tulo & Martin - remember the talk that Shapiro was brought in to compete on a more modest payroll. I am now thinking that the jays will not sign any of the quality FA pitchers requiring a long term (4+yrs) commitment. Hope I'm wrong but it seems to be trending that way.

to be honest i'm not sure what this "marginal wins" theory is about. isn't it better add more than just marginal wins?

Uglyone, the San Fran model was all about a low performance floor everywhere on the diamond to reduce variance - since we are theoretically trying to win the division again next year, an extra win may be worth paying market value for.

wins between 85-95 are worth more than the market value of a win to that specific team, given associated revenue increases- past 95 wins you are likely already the division winner, and below 85 you are likely at home watching. 

This is a good article on the topic, although the graph uses some old data. 

http://battingleadoff.com/2014/01/28/marginal-win-value-dollars-per-win/

To me, it makes sense to spend on marginal wins when the roster is relatively solid everywhere (the San Fran approach).  Sign us a number 2 starter and then these kind of marginal win moves to reduce variance make sense.  But if we DON'T sign a mid rotation starter or better this year, I would rather we had kept Hendricks, moved revere and signed / traded for a mid rotation starter. 

If one thinks of Chavez as adding marginal win(s), thats fine if he's the 5th or 6th starter. Last year Doubront, Copeland, Boyd and Redmond had 10 starts between them so improving the 5th through 8th starters with marginal wins has to be an improvement.

Okay jerjapan,
Who do you see as available #2 Starters for the Jays? Sometimes having a Q.O. matters.

Richard, I'd be prepared to give up a 1st to get a starter.  Frankly, I think we should get Price, he clearly does like the city so he WOULD sign here, it's just if Rogers can see their way to being a major player in FA.  Doubtful, but if we signed Price and traded Revere (or Revere and Price+Thole) for a bit of salary relief, I'd do it. 

But really, really doubtful.

Grienke is likely  a pipe dream ... Leake, Shark, Kazmir, Lackey?  Dave Cameron had Wei-Yin Chen as a potential FA bargain? 

If we don't get a pricey SP, we could also add a Broxton or a Morrow type arm to the pen for a one year deal with upside and risk. 

There is another school of thought.

The Jays were good enough to theoretically be a 100 win team last year and that was with 1/2 the season not having Price/Tulo/Revere/etc. and less of Travis than expected for 2016. So if you think this team should be good enough for the playoffs regardless of more changes then any changes should be made with an eye to the playoffs and getting to the WS not just the ALCS plus 2017 and beyond.

The best way to do that is find long term solutions for problem areas. 3B/SS/2B/CF/CA are set for (in baseball) long term. 1B/LF are weak while RF/DH will need replacing or resigning for next year. This suggests the Jays should look at getting a high end 1B/LF now if they can at a reasonable price, with an eye to Pompey taking over LF or RF in 2017 and either Bautista or EE resigned to DH in 17 and beyond. I forget who mentioned it but a trade with Cincinnati (perpetual small market) might be a good idea. Joey Votto would fill 1B and they want to clear that contract I'm sure. The Reds are dealing with millions owed to Homer Bailey who just had Tommy John surgery in May so won't be back until 2017 while paying $18 mil to him. All this on a team that lost 98 games last year. Aroldis Chapman is someone the Jays have wanted for years and will probably make just over $10 mil next year in arbitration before becoming a free agent. Could the Jays find a way to get Votto & Chapman (eating a ton of budget space) thus solving two needs while helping Cincinnati save a lot of money (critical for them at this point I'd think).

the trouble with that is that SF didn’t really have a low performnce floor all over the roster. they have had serious holes and overpaid for many of them.

The "low floor" theory is imo flawed because it overstates what a floor is. Like I mentioned earlier - nobody would be surprised if any of Dickey, Estrada, Chavez blew up completely next year and were unplayable. none of these guys have floors we can feel great about. this was the same mistake the red sox made last year - valuing the floors of players like porcello, sandoval, ramirez etc. as jays fans we know all about how illusory floors are - we've seen so many near-elite performers turn unplayable even in their prime - Rios, Hill, Wells, Romero, Lind, etc. etc.

and then you have to count the double whammy of being forced to play guys with guaranteed contracts no matter how badly they perform, as opposed to the freedom to go with the hot hand out of a bunch of cheap non guaranteed players.

the data presented in that article does describe certain behaviours of GMs, but doesn't evaluate whether it's right or not I don't think.

but i'm not even sure i'm talking about marginal wins here.

if we're talking about the .5-1win upgrade from hendriks to chavez as a very important win to add for a team whose marginal win value is higher than most that's fine. but even if marginal wins are more valuable to us this year than other teams, that doesn't mean this was a good way to add some.

I would also give up a 1ST to get a Starter, but would Shapiro? I would give up a 1st for Greinke (Q.O.), but I don't think they'll meet his price. I'd love to sign Price (no Q.O.). the Jays need a Lefty badly and he's a Stud. I just don't they meet his price. I would give up a 1st for Zimmermann (Q.O.). He needs to throw his changeup a lot more and lessen the speed on his slider and curve. He has a chance to be better longer than Price, but will the Jays afford him? I'd even think about that idiot Cueto (no Q.O.)as an option, but even he might cost more.

Anybody else with a Q.O. such as Jeff Samardizija, Wei-yin Chen, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, John Lackey and Hisashi Iwakuma all have their issues and aren't worth a 1st.

Kenta Maeda needs to be posted and getting chosen is almost a lottery. The pitchers without a Q.O. are: Mike Leake, Scott Kasmir, J.A. Happ, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Mike Pelfrey, etc., and have issues, beside not being that good.

Chavez is #6 starter. He is the backup plan

He is the Estrada of 2016. The Jays like to have the veteran starter in the #6 place to come in... just in case.

Villonova is another example.

This is also telling me that the free agency market is not that favorable for the Jays. You think the Jays could sign a "Chavez" as a free agent for the same money and keep Hendricks.

"Last year Doubront, Copeland, Boyd and Redmond had 10 starts between them so improving the 5th through 8th starters with marginal wins has to be an improvement."

I was wondering about this. Don't have time to crunch all the numbers so I just looked at the Royals' pitching.

#5 Guthrie 24gs, 131.1ip, 6.10era
#6 Vargas 9gs, 43.0ip, 3.98era
#7 Medlen 8gs, 44.0ip, 4.40era
#8 Blanton 4gs, 18.2ip, 5.30era
#9 Pino 1gs, 5.1ip, 10.13era

Total: 46gs, 5.3ip/gs, 5.46era


#5 Hutchison 28gs, 148.0ip, 5.47era
#6 Sanchez 11gs, 66.0ip, 3.55era
#7 Norris 5gs, 23.1ip, 3.86era
#8 Doubront 4gs, 20.1ip, 4.87era
#9 Copeland 3gs, 12.1ip, 8.03era
#10 Boyd 2gs, 6.2ip, 14.85era
#11 Redmond 1gs, 4.0ip, 6.75era

Total: 54gs, 5.2ip/gs, 5.19era

reports are that the sox are going hard for price/greinke. as they should. as should we.

"....does losing a good reliever to guarantee a starting spot to a 1.5war guy really make us better?..."

I'm puzzled by this statement.  Why do you think that the Jays have "guaranteed a starting spot" to Chavez?  It seems much more likely that he's a depth option, as Estrada was at the beginning of last season.  The Jays were paying $4-million to Estrada last season and yet they didn't feel obliged to "guarantee" him a starting spot.  He was a depth option, and he made the starting rotation only after the presumed starter Norris was found wanting.  Same thing with Chavez:  he wins a spot if he wins the competition at spring training, or if others are injured or slumping.  I don't think he's been guaranteed anything.  He's insurance and he's a guy to compete for the 5th starter job.  Moreover, there's a definite possibility that the Jays will acquire one or two starting pitchers from the free-agent or trade markets.  I can easily see a scenario where the Jays begin the season with a rotation of Stroman, Estrada, Dickey, one other new acquisition, and a 5th starter who would be the best of the competition among Hutchison, Sanchez, Osuna and Chavez.  There's no harm in having Chavez spend half of the season in the bullpen, where he would probably be the long man or swing man, and I don't see why you would be ruling out that scenario already.

People tend to ignore how bad most teams #6 and beyond are. If a guy is good enough to be a 1/2/3 then he will be that for someone unless he is in the minors.

Heck, look at the 1993 Jays... sorted by games started
#1: Guzman 3.99
#2: Hentgen 3.87
#3: Stottlemyre 4.84
#4: Morris 6.19 (down to 27 starts)
#5: Steward 4.44
#6: Leiter 4.50 (as starter only - 12 starts)
#7: Brow 6.00 (3 starts)
#8: Linton 10.38 (1 start)

Team ERA of 4.21 - 103 ERA+, the steroid era was just starting. This years was 3.80 ERA 104 ERA+. So roughly shave 0.4 off each ERA to get an equivalent for now (yeah, super rough method but gives an eyeshot).

In 1985 when the Jays won 99 the team ERA for starters was just 3.32 but #5 was Luis Leal 5.70 ERA, Filer 3.63 (7-0 record in 9 starts), Steve Davis 4.74, while the other 3 who started averaged under 5 innings per start.

Once you get past the top 3-4 guys it always goes down fast unless you get a hotshot kid or some vet who catches fire (or has a dead cat bounce).

The Jays resources are best spent on improving the big 3 (those are your playoff starters), improving the closer/setup in the pen, and improving offense even further. Not worrying about #7/8/9 in the rotation.

well, I guess why it feels different to me is that picking estrada up saved us money, didn't cost us, so it didn't feel like as much of a comittment to a role as us giving up a good releiever for a $5m SP feels like.

(I also think AA went a little crazy after the Stroman injury and decided his only hope was to shove all the kids into the pitching staff and hope one would break out. I still feel that estrada was the #5 guy when they got him and when stro was healthy, with sanchez in the pen and norris in AAA. but that's just imo.)

It's still about 2 - 2.5 weeks for Winter Meetings to be over. If by that time the Jays haven't acquired at least one quality Starter, then the pessimist wussies might have a reason to complain. To do so beforehand just makes them look ridiculous.

HEY.

I may be a wussy but i ain't no pessimist!

In case anyone thinks $4.5 - $5.0 MM is too much for a possible Reliever forgets how much even average arms cost last year. To think that's too much for a possible 5th Starter forgot injury risk Rich Hill (soon to be 36) signed a one year $6.0 MM contract with Oakland, this year.

I hope that Rogers & the FO prove me wrong, but I'm not encouraged by the direction of the offseason so far - the jays have added 2 pitchers (Estrada & Chavez) on short-term commitments - meaning that after 2016, when the contracts of Bautista, EE, Dickey, Cecil, Saunders, Smoak, Chavez etc. expire (about 50m)the team can really cut payroll and change direction especially if they move Donaldson,Tulo & Martin - remember the talk that Shapiro was brought in to compete on a more modest payroll. I am now thinking that the jays will not sign any of the quality FA pitchers requiring a long term (4+yrs) commitment. Hope I'm wrong but it seems to be trending that way.

This is my concern as well.

Frankly, I'm disappointed and a bit miffed that this $140M budget that has been pegged for 2016 hasn't caused more noise in the media.

Is this really the best we can expect for a team that is squarely in a championship window? Why are people so accepting of this following a season where the team sold out the Dome for the last third of the season and topped 5M viewers on the tube?

I see today that the Sox want to aggressively chase BOTH Price and Greinke and anticipate the Yankees to hover around the tax threshold and can't help but feel ripped off that ownership seems reluctant to go all-in during what should be a golden opportunity.

If it's not acceptable to go up to $160M or, heaven forbid, $180M for the finishing touches on a World Series contender in 2016, then when can I, as a fan, expect ownership to invest appropriately?

Hopefully the team surprises despite the announced budgetary constraint and chases a pair top 8ish free agent SPs - I think anything less would be disgraceful given circumstances and the current roster makeup.

It makes a ton of financial sense to say 'we have a $140 budget' if it really is $180 during free agent season. If agents think you have $50 mil to spend they will push for all of it. IF they think you have $20 to spend then they know not to push for the $50.

A big part of me thinks the Jays will make a splash at some point. Probably resigning Price or getting Greinke. Part of me would prefer they go for the super-offense by signing Alex Gordon or Chris Davis or Yoenis Cespedes (Cespedes or Gordon are my 1 and 1A choices) or Jason Heyward even. An offense like that could be scary good. 1000+ runs as a target.

At some point and time A.A. had always mentioned a Budget or Budgetary constraints or some limit he was working on. The sum was never ever mentioned. Any speculation on the number was media driven and false.

Thus far this season LaCava's unbending story has him saying he has enough. He's said that several times. If you did not hear it/see it/stumble over it, you must not be a Blue Jay fan or you've been working in Antarctica or similar restrictions, because it was hard to ignore. Any speculation is totally media driven. At last report Roger's hasn't set any Budgets anywhere, and a media reported 'fact'.

Regarding SF and their safe approach.

In 2010 T Lincecum & M Cain were very good, and expected to be good IMO. Mad Bum was a rookie, he did OK. Then they got lucky with B Zito & J Sanchez, both started 33 games and some how were OK.

In 2012 Cain and Mad Bum were good. I expected them to be.I also expected T Lincecum to be good. But he was OK. Then they got lucky with B Zito & Voglesong. Those last 3 made over 30 starts each.

In 2014 SF was not that powerful a team. 88 wins for a WC berth. Mad Bum was awesome. J Peavy made 12 starts and was very good, probably fantastic. IMO there was nothing great about the rest of the rotation. They got in and Mad Bum carried them to the WS champions.

I am not disagreeing about anything. But I feel that their rotation was their biggest strength.

Maybe it gets killed in the AL East.

twutter whispers from boston writers saying jays FO guys they talk to "aren't even pretending" to be in Price sweepstakes.

Jim Bowden says the same thing. So I'm almost tempted to go buy a Price jersey.

A Carey Price jersey, you mean?

I would think pitchers like Price and Greinke would want to sign with a team that has a potentially large window of contention, like the Cubs. The Jays look good for 2016, but given that some key players may depart after next year, the team's history of non-contention, and Rogers' sonewhat-checkered reputation for not fully supporting the team, free agents in line for a big contract may have concerns (justified or not) about the team's long-term chances.

Plus, it's hard to attract elite free agents to Canada.

A big part of me thinks the Jays will make a splash at some point. Probably resigning Price or getting Greinke. Part of me would prefer they go for the super-offense by signing Alex Gordon or Chris Davis or Yoenis Cespedes (Cespedes or Gordon are my 1 and 1A choices) or Jason Heyward even. An offense like that could be scary good. 1000+ runs as a target.

John;
you have some good suggestions there. Rogers has to do everything possible to keep the magic continuing. That way attendance record$ might be $et.

The Rotation was very good late last year, but they need at least one top Pitcher to make it close this year. The Farm might not support a mid-season acquisition of that caliber, so they need to get it now.

The Bullpen was very good late last year, but they had two quality additions (plus Sanchez) to make it that way. The Farm might not support a quality acquisition like that, so acquiring at least one needed piece is necessary now.

The Bench last year had real MLB players on it for the first time in years and not the usual AAAA/AAA fodder A.A. usually had on it. It's going to be hard to determine who becomes the Bench this year, so it might be lacking in talent.

Replacing approximately 80 HR and 225 RBI when Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion leave will be impossible unless they start now, but still might be impossible. I agree 1B and LF could/should/must get upgraded, as RF and DH must be added to the list soon next year.

Not knowing enough about Shapiro, I don't know how far they will go in fulfilling everything this Team needs. But there's one thing I am absolutely sure about. After what happened last year, Shapiro's job changed. I suspected getting back is an absolute priority.

Greenfrog - despite all that, I would have believed in AA's ability to get a guy like Price signed.

without him, and after his embarassing exit, i agree our chances of attracting a top guy are slim.

I think you guys are underestimating the biggest factor in regards to those FA's making their decision, money.

There may have been a lot of warm fuzzy feeling narratives written about Russ signing with the Jays last off season, but he choose the Jays over the Cubs because the Jays offered more money.

Steve Tolleson signed with the O's. Minor League deal I believe.

Free Agents won't sign here.
What do Starters complain about?
If they complain about Offense, they would be coming to a Team with Baseball's best Offense, by a large margin.
If they complain about Defense, they would be coming to a Team with one of Baseball's best Defenses since the Trade Deadline.
If they are complaining about Umpiring, so is everyone else. Someone should pass the hat for the bullets.
If they are complaining about anything else, Term and Dollars solve those problems.
This is now a Team that's been there, a Team that shows promise, a Team that will get back.

The Window doesn't end in 2016, it continues on to 2017 and beyond.
In the Outfield, baring trades, Kevin Pillar and Ben Revere return with at least Dalton Pompey available. In the Infield, Chris Colabello, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Ryan Goins return. In the Rotation, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada and Drew Hutchison return. In the Bullpen, Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez and Aaron Loup return.

That's a lot more talent on this Team, over a two year period, than most teams have. Just look at what K.C. lost this year.

JB21, I think Martin was a strategic overpay by the Jays. 5/82 was relatively expensive, but doable for the organization. Martin was viewed as an excellent player at a key position (and a marketable one in Canada, to boot) that could help the team take it to the next level without breaking the bank.

Outbidding the field for players like Price and Greinke on a contract that could span six to ten years is a different story. I just don't see it happening.

If the Jays had a farm system brimming with talent, I would feel better about the post-2016 era. Not that the Jays have a poor system, but the major-league club is going to need a significant infusion of talent starting in 2017. Given that historically the Jays haven't been major players in free agency, the farm system will be key in building a winning team (as it was in 2016).

At this point in time, Shapiro has an extra Second Round pick in 2016. He's probably giving Bautista and Encarnacion maybe Dickey a Qualifying Offer thus obtaining one or two extra Draft Picks in 2017. If they can avoid raiding the Farm to obtain Players, some people could be on the Team in 2017, but they will decide who they are. Adding 30 - 40 players via the Draft and International Signings every year could have the Jays top five by pre-Spring 2018 and keep the Jays going strong for years.

That way they could acquire a significant Player via trade each year if needed and add a few good ones to the Big Team from the Farm when they are ready.

Presently everyone is surmising who the TBJ are going to sign as a FA and/or trade from our Outfield surplus and 1st Base surplus.
My statement is : the Jays FO have increased the ticket prices by 8-10% per seat, TBJ SVP projects the net price will increase from $33 to $37 in 2016.

The attendance is 2.8 Million for 2015, now the Season ticket holders have been 90%+ retained. Additionally as of last week there has been 6,000 new STH. On twitter customers are indicating when they purchase there flex packs ,where last year they could 3rd row in the 100 section in 2015, now they are available in row 25 and above. in the 500 section, all seats u to row 19 are sold out, than flex pack tickets start at row 20 reinforces my belief.

My interpretation from this indicates a very large pre-commitments for seats, between STH and flex packs there will be announcement that over 3 MM tickets will be pre-sold. Than there will be a push for a David Price signing will be expected.

Price will have a restricted trade clause, or as Grienke has an out clause. But more importantly the jays can afford Price and $150 MM payroll due to the projected attendance increase.

"If the Jays had a farm system brimming with talent, I would feel better about the post-2016 era. Not that the Jays have a poor system, but the major-league club is going to need a significant infusion of talent starting in 2017. Given that historically the Jays haven't been major players in free agency, the farm system will be key in building a winning team (as it was in 2016)."


Yes. The Jays are going to lose 8-10 WAR for $24M combined after 2016 (assuming both Bautista and Edwin leave). That's going to be next to impossible to replace directly. It will take some very good moves and/or player development to make up for that, never mind improve from that.

If there is a way to go "all in" for 2016 without hurting the team's prospect base, then that should be the goal, and that's probably why Estrada was given a very short-term deal and why they traded a controllable reliever for one year of Chavez.

The team doesn't have the prospects to make big splashes anymore, and they really can't afford to trade their top guys (Pompey/Alford) since they'll need OF help after 2016 with Bautista likely on the way out. Shapiro seems to be very long-term driven, so I don't see him doing anything crazy (trading prospects for vets or overpaying a free agent). I think that's the right way to go. Don't double down any further. Try to win in 2016 and then improvise from there.

@SK in NJ

Agree. The Jays are actually in a pretty odd position of needing to go for it this year but also needing to re-tool and build a solid foundation for the organization. They can attempt to extend their window but trying to build a team around declining and expensive veterans generally is a terrible idea even if you have more money than the Jays do.

The more I look at it the more I think Price and Greinke are not coming. While Shapiro said the 5 year rule is no longer a rule I doubt he'll go to 7 for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 or even one who is 21 for that matter as the risk with pitchers is so high. Look at Cincinnati signing Homer Bailey through 2019 then they got 23 starts in 2014 and 2 starts in 2015 and Tommy John surgery after 2 years of 30+ starts. Pitchers are fragile creatures.

Outside of guys like Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux who would've been a good signing for 7 years at age 30 or 32? I'm sure the entire list would be HOF'ers. Now, Price and Greinke could each be future HOF'ers but do you want to bet the house on it? I doubt Shapiro does. I suspect he will look for a solid 200 IP guy then hope one of the kids (Sanchez and/or Osuna) joins Stroman as an ace.

If I was going to risk that kind of money I'd be looking at hitters for 1B or LF, ideally strong on defense as well as offense, to make the lineup so scary that all you need pitchers to do is get through 6 and have an ERA in the low 4's to win a ton of games ala the 1993 team. To make it perfect find a real experienced closer to finish things off ala Chapman in Cincinnati. Hopefully Alford or Pompey or someone else steps up to take over RF after 2016 at a cheap price so EE or Bautista can go away and save $10+ mil to pay the other one while not hurting the team too much.

To sign Price the Jays would need to risk $30 mil a year for 7 years minimum. Not going to happen.

@jensan, one does have to be a little careful about extrapolating fan ticket purchase to payroll, as some owners might think the added fans are a 1 time bonus or luck driven bonus and let's milk them now. Or like the leafs, let's hope we get lots of fan support even with terrible teams. I agree it looks like Toronto is a great market that is also influenced by the quality of the team. In which case, investing in the team makes a lot of financial sense. But just because you or I might think that, this doesn't mean Rogers thinks that.

On the pitcher quality, when people talk about #1 or #2 or whatever quality starters averagish guys have a lot of value. Consider in 2015 while there are 15 AL teams, there were only 83 pitchers who reached 80 IP last year (starters or relievers). If each team had 5 starters that reached 80+IP, so that is a reasonable cut off. From that Chavez is #54 which would be a #4 pitcher. But if instead you say Jesse Chavez might only give us 140 IP, well only 47 pitchers across the AL (or about 3 per team) pitched 140 IP or more and Chavez was number 28 by ERA, so a #2.

If you go MLB wide and consider a starting pitcher someone who gives you at least 100 IP, since basically no strict RP hits 100 IP, then for 30 teams and 5 men rotations there should be 150 SP. But MLB wide only 141 pitchers hit 100 IP. If you group them by ERA as first 30 are #1, next 30 are #2, etc. you can get some picture of what it takes (except we know this will favor NL teams and anti-favor AL-East teams since we know the offense level is higher there). Still here were the MLB starters categorized by 2015 ERA performance:

#1 starters

RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
1	Zack Greinke	LAD	32	32	222.2	9.3	0.84	1.66
2	Jake Arrieta	CHC	33	33	229	8.6	0.86	1.77
3	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	33	33	232.2	7.5	0.88	2.13
4	Jaime Garcia	STL	20	20	129.2	3.9	1.05	2.43
5	David Price	DET/TOR	32	32	220.1	6	1.08	2.45
6	Dallas Keuchel	HOU	33	33	232	7.2	1.02	2.48
7	Jacob deGrom	NYM	30	30	191	4.7	0.98	2.54
8	Gerrit Cole	PIT	32	32	208	4.5	1.09	2.6
9	Matt Harvey	NYM	29	29	189.1	4.3	1.02	2.71
10	Sonny Gray	OAK	31	31	208	5.8	1.08	2.73
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
11	John Lackey	STL	33	33	218	5.6	1.21	2.77
12	Max Scherzer	WSH	33	33	228.2	7	0.92	2.79
13	Madison Bumgarner	SF	32	32	218.1	4.9	1.01	2.93
14	Carlos Martinez	STL	31	29	179.2	3.9	1.29	3.01
15	Shelby Miller	ATL	33	33	205.1	3.6	1.25	3.02
16	Lance Lynn	STL	31	31	175.1	3.4	1.37	3.03
17	Chris Young	KC	34	18	123.1	2.5	1.09	3.06
18	Scott Kazmir	OAK/HOU	31	31	183	3.3	1.21	3.1
19	Marco Estrada	TOR	34	28	181	3.6	1.04	3.13
20	A.J. Burnett	PIT	26	26	164	2.7	1.36	3.18
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
21	Lance McCullers	HOU	22	22	125.2	2.4	1.19	3.22
22	Chris Archer	TB	34	34	212	4.3	1.14	3.23
23	Noah Syndergaard	NYM	24	24	150	2.1	1.05	3.24
24	Clay Buchholz	BOS	18	18	113.1	2.7	1.21	3.26
25	Tyson Ross	SD	33	33	196	3.1	1.31	3.26
26	Adam Warren	NYY	43	17	131.1	2.8	1.16	3.29
27	Jon Lester	CHC	32	32	205	2.9	1.12	3.34
28	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	31	31	191.1	3.8	1.22	3.34
29	Jake Odorizzi	TB	28	28	169.1	3.5	1.15	3.35
30	Jose Quintana	CHW	32	32	206.1	4	1.27	3.36

#2 Starters

RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
31	Francisco Liriano	PIT	31	31	186.2	2.8	1.21	3.38
	Justin Verlander	DET	20	20	133.1	2.2	1.09	3.38
	Michael Wacha	STL	30	30	181.1	2.9	1.21	3.38
34	Chris Sale	CHW	31	31	208.2	3.3	1.09	3.41
35	Yovani Gallardo	TEX	33	33	184.1	4.1	1.42	3.42
36	Johnny Cueto	KC/CIN	32	32	212	3.9	1.13	3.44
37	Danny Salazar	CLE	30	30	185	3.3	1.13	3.45
38	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	23	23	127.1	2	1.11	3.46
39	Corey Kluber	CLE	32	32	222	4.2	1.05	3.49
40	Andrew Heaney	LAA	18	18	105.2	1.7	1.2	3.49
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
41	Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	24	24	154	3.1	0.99	3.51
42	Robbie Ray	ARI	23	23	127.2	1.7	1.33	3.52
43	Felix Hernandez	SEA	31	31	201.2	4.4	1.18	3.53
44	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	20	20	129.2	2.4	1.06	3.54
45	Edinson Volquez	KC	34	33	200.1	2.5	1.31	3.55
46	Jake Peavy	SF	19	19	110.2	1.5	1.12	3.58
47	Hector Santiago	LAA	33	32	180.2	1.8	1.26	3.59
48	Dan Haren	CHC/MIA	32	32	187.1	2.3	1.13	3.6
49	J.A. Happ	SEA/PIT	32	31	172	3	1.27	3.61
50	Mike Bolsinger	LAD	21	21	109.1	1.2	1.36	3.62
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
51	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	30	30	183.2	3.8	1.07	3.63
52	Cole Hamels	TEX/PHI	32	32	212.1	4.4	1.19	3.65
53	Garrett Richards	LAA	32	32	207.1	1.8	1.24	3.65
54	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	33	33	201.2	3.4	1.2	3.66
55	Nathan Karns	TB	27	26	147	2.2	1.28	3.67
56	Brett Anderson	LAD	31	31	180.1	1.6	1.33	3.69
	Mike Fiers	MIL/HOU	31	30	180.1	2.2	1.25	3.69
58	Mike Leake	CIN/SF	30	30	192	2.9	1.16	3.7
59	Jason Hammel	CHC	31	31	170.2	1.7	1.16	3.74
60	Carlos Rodon	CHW	26	23	139.1	1.6	1.44	3.75

#3 Starters

RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
61	Erasmo Ramirez	TB	34	27	163.1	2.1	1.13	3.75
62	Taylor Jungmann	MIL	21	21	119.1	1.5	1.28	3.77
63	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	31	31	175.2	2.7	1.42	3.79
64	Josh Collmenter	ARI	44	12	121	1	1.26	3.79
65	Mark Buehrle	TOR	32	32	198.2	1	1.24	3.81
66	Kyle Gibson	MIN	32	32	194.2	3.2	1.29	3.84
67	Alex Wood	ATL/LAD	32	32	189.2	2.4	1.36	3.84
68	Travis Wood	CHC	54	9	100.2	0.4	1.24	3.84
69	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	21	21	121.2	2.5	1.29	3.85
70	C.J. Wilson	LAA	21	21	132	1.2	1.24	3.89
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
71	Collin McHugh	HOU	32	32	203.2	3.1	1.28	3.89
72	Scott Feldman	HOU	18	18	108.1	1.4	1.31	3.9
73	R.A. Dickey	TOR	33	33	214.1	2.3	1.19	3.91
74	James Shields	SD	33	33	202.1	1.8	1.33	3.91
75	Tommy Milone	MIN	24	23	128.2	1.4	1.27	3.92
76	Alex Colome	TB	43	13	109.2	0.9	1.3	3.94
77	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	32	32	180	1.7	1.16	3.95
78	Chris Heston	SF	31	31	177.2	1.5	1.31	3.95
79	Nick Martinez	TEX	24	21	125	1	1.45	3.96
80	Ervin Santana	MIN	17	17	108	1.6	1.3	4
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
81	Trevor May	MIN	48	16	114.2	1.5	1.33	4
82	Julio Teheran	ATL	33	33	200.2	1.5	1.31	4.04
83	Anthony DeSclafani	CIN	31	31	184.2	1.3	1.35	4.05
84	Kendall Graveman	OAK	21	21	115.2	1.2	1.42	4.05
85	Yordano Ventura	KC	28	28	163.1	1.9	1.3	4.08
86	Danny Duffy	KC	30	24	136.2	1.5	1.39	4.08
87	Tom Koehler	MIA	32	31	187.1	0.6	1.37	4.08
88	Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	32	32	184	2.6	1.36	4.11
89	Jimmy Nelson	MIL	30	30	177.1	1.4	1.29	4.11
90	Jonathon Niese	NYM	33	29	176.2	0.2	1.4	4.13

#4 Starters

RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
91	Roenis Elias	SEA	22	20	115.1	0.9	1.3	4.14
92	Bartolo Colon	NYM	33	31	194.2	1	1.24	4.16
93	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	26	26	149	2.8	1.36	4.17
94	Jesse Chavez	OAK	30	26	157	1.6	1.35	4.18
95	Doug Fister	WSH	25	15	103	0.2	1.4	4.19
96	Nathan Eovaldi	NYY	27	27	154.1	2.3	1.45	4.2
97	Chad Bettis	COL	20	20	115	2.6	1.41	4.23
98	Kevin Gausman	BAL	25	17	112.1	1.3	1.23	4.25
99	Mike Pelfrey	MIN	30	30	164.2	1.4	1.48	4.26
100	Ian Kennedy	SD	30	30	168.1	-0.4	1.3	4.28
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
101	Chase Anderson	ARI	27	27	152.2	0.8	1.3	4.3
102	Andrew Cashner	SD	31	31	184.2	-0.9	1.44	4.34
103	Michael Pineda	NYY	27	27	160.2	1.8	1.23	4.37
104	Tanner Roark	WSH	40	12	111	0.7	1.31	4.38
105	Phil Hughes	MIN	27	25	155.1	1.8	1.29	4.4
106	Tim Hudson	SF	24	22	123.2	0.3	1.38	4.44
107	Matt Shoemaker	LAA	25	24	135.1	0.5	1.26	4.46
108	Wade Miley	BOS	32	32	193.2	2.5	1.37	4.46
109	Jeff Locke	PIT	30	30	168.1	-0.6	1.42	4.49
110	David Phelps	MIA	23	19	112	0.2	1.36	4.5
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
111	Trevor Bauer	CLE	31	30	176	1.5	1.31	4.55
112	Taijuan Walker	SEA	29	29	169.2	1.1	1.2	4.56
113	Jeremy Hellickson	ARI	27	27	146	0	1.33	4.62
114	Jered Weaver	LAA	26	26	159	0.3	1.23	4.64
115	Colby Lewis	TEX	33	33	204.2	1	1.24	4.66
116	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	33	22	135	-0.4	1.47	4.67
117	Rubby De La Rosa	ARI	32	32	188.2	0	1.36	4.67
118	Matt Wisler	ATL	20	19	109	0.4	1.46	4.71
119	John Danks	CHW	30	30	177.2	0	1.41	4.71
120	Wily Peralta	MIL	20	20	108.2	0.2	1.54	4.72

#5 Starters

RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
121	CC Sabathia	NYY	29	29	167.1	1.1	1.42	4.73
122	Williams Perez	ATL	23	20	116.2	0	1.55	4.78
123	Charlie Morton	PIT	23	23	129	-0.7	1.38	4.81
124	Joe Kelly	BOS	25	25	134.1	1.1	1.44	4.82
125	Aaron Harang	PHI	29	29	172.1	0.7	1.39	4.86
126	Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	26	26	144.2	0.6	1.4	4.91
127	Rick Porcello	BOS	28	28	172	0.6	1.36	4.92
128	Mat Latos	LAA/LAD/MIA	24	21	116.1	-0.5	1.31	4.95
129	Jeff Samardzija	CHW	32	32	214	0.2	1.29	4.96
130	Anibal Sanchez	DET	25	25	157	0.1	1.28	4.99
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
131	Chris Tillman	BAL	31	31	173	0.8	1.39	4.99
132	Alfredo Simon	DET	31	31	187	-0.7	1.44	5.05
133	Chris Rusin	COL	24	22	131.2	0.2	1.6	5.33
134	Michael Lorenzen	CIN	27	21	113.1	-0.6	1.66	5.4
135	Drew Hutchison	TOR	30	28	150.1	-1.7	1.48	5.57
136	Matt Garza	MIL	26	25	148.2	-1.7	1.57	5.63
137	Odrisamer Despaigne	SD	34	18	125.2	-1.3	1.38	5.8
138	Jerome Williams	PHI	33	21	121	-0.8	1.61	5.8
139	Kyle Lohse	MIL	37	22	152.1	-1.3	1.46	5.85
140	Jeremy Guthrie	KC	30	24	148.1	-1.8	1.55	5.95
RK	PLAYER…………………	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	WAR	WHIP	ERA
141	Kyle Kendrick	COL	27	27	142.1	-0.5	1.52	6.32

So again, any individual person in the above might be slightly off. And the list favors NL pitchers over AL pitchers. But Chavez is nearly a #3 on this list/at the front of the #4. Would I like 5 clearly better pitchers than him to get 100+ innings for the Jays? Yes. Is he a #6 or #7 pitcher? No. Sure he might not do as well in Toronto as Oakland, but he did pitch in the AL at least, and quality players who give you 3.5 to 4.25 ERA and 100+ IP pitching in the AL are not without a lot of value.

If you look at the Jays last year, using this categorization, they had 2 #1 pitchers (Price-5, Estrada-19); 2 #3 pitchers (Buehrle-65, Dickey-73); 1 #5 (Hutchinson-135). Price they obviously didn't have all year, but this list also doesn't give them any credit for Stroman since he didn't pitch 100+ innings, but his limited innings ERA last year was a #1 rate, and 2 years ago in a 130.2 IP was a #2.

Worth a read, including for the quotes from Shapiro:

http://nypost.com/2015/11/21/blue-jays-tricky-offseason-may-decide-yankees-2016-fate/

Not sure why you'd be buying AA's ability to make the biggest FA signing in Jays history (by a long ways). Until Martin, the largest signing AA made in his entire tenure was Izturis. And there were personal connections for Martin that don't exist for Price.

I'm overall happy with AA's trade work, but the FA work wasn't exactly overwhelming. I don't know why things would be different this time around. In fact, with the lack of trust that Rogers clearly felt in AA, there's probably a better chance that Rogers would sign off on Price if Shapiro recommended it rather than if AA did.

Interesting article. I think Shapiro is right on the money. The opportunity to win in 2016 is there, but the roster is older and the upper minors is barren (the lower minors is where most of the talent in the system is). One or two big injuries and the Jays could be in trouble, though that could be said for most teams. It's just a really weird spot to be in. A one year window and then a whole bunch of uncertainty after that.

"The Jays are actually in a pretty odd position of needing to go for it this year but also needing to re-tool and build a solid foundation for the organization"

not really an odd position - and a poisition which is easily served by signing a prime aged free agent or two.

those are depressing quotes from shapiro.

He's also completely wrong, for the record. Depth wasn't a problem last year and is the easiest thing to fix.

expect more Chavezes.

It's just a really weird spot to be in.

Only if you think the normal is to sign long contracts and be tied down with aging players.

When you have an All-Star at a position, you don't usually have lots of depth there.
The Jays have several AS, so lacks depth. It's better than having holes.

Shapiro would like tons of decent prospects in the upper layers, Most teams don't have that and they usually underperform when you have to promote one due to injury.

I am more afraid of the Jays being in trouble without any injuries.

Given that historically the Jays haven't been major players in free agency, the farm system will be key in building a winning team (as it was in 2016).

You're not tied by history. If you're the GM, the current year is always the most important year in the history of the franchise.

those are depressing quotes from shapiro.
He's also completely wrong, for the record. Depth wasn't a problem last year and is the easiest thing to fix.
expect more Chavezes.

Geez.  That's not the way I read it.  First off, he said that the club has needs in the pitching staff.  No kidding. He didn't indicate any particular preference for bulk or single purchase acquistions.  Secondly, he said that the club has some depth needs.  That's true- they don't have third basemen or catchers ready to go in the event of injury.  With Travis' injury, they are also very thin in the middle infield.  It's true that depth issues are easier to fix, but often GMs do overlook them.   

"...The Jays are going to lose 8-10 WAR for $24M combined after 2016 (assuming both Bautista and Edwin leave)..."

This is a strange assumption.  Why would the Jays allow both to leave?  Bautista and Encarnacion are loyal long-time Jays with good feelings about this organization and this city.  They will be expensive to keep, but not impossible.  The Jays are in a good position to keep at least one of them, if not both.  As the Estrada example showed, the cost of a free agent can be somewhat less than expected if the player wants to stay.  It's odd that some fans still have a lingering assumption that "we can't have nice things" because the Jays can't afford nice things.  They can afford.  If Shapiro lets both of them walk, I'll be very disappointed.

The quotes from Shapiro in the NY Post article are sensible and logical.  He mentions the tremendous "upside" of the Toronto market.  But the logical follow-up is obvious: the owners need to invest more heavily in the Jays to reap the huge upside benefits.  So why is the payroll still just $140-million or less?  Here's the relevant quote:

“I think the biggest difference is the upside in the Toronto market is real. Cleveland, you’re just limited to a population base and a wealth base. Toronto, you don’t really have a limit in that population or wealth, and you have the entire nation [of Canada]. Winning, I think, has exponential potential impact there. Especially if you build [something] sustainable.”

Biggest eyeroller for me:

"... we’re managing against two behemoths that can start with anywhere from a 4-to-10 win advantage on us based on dollars. So we still have to be finite with our resources. We still have to manage risk."

That could mean a number of different things, but some of them are pretty awful.

"....We still have to manage risk..."

I would interpret this as:  "We have to manage risk by ensuring that we have good depth in the minors and solid 6th, 7th and 8th starters available in case of injuries or poor performance -- including depth pitchers such as Hutchison and  Chavez, who won't be automatically handed a starting-rotation job but will have to compete at spring training and can then be stashed in Buffalo or the bullpen in case of problems with our top-5 starters."

But if it means something else -- if it means "We're going to begin penny-pinching and hoarding every prospect because AA was too reckless with his decisions" -- then I agree, we're in trouble.

OK.  Thanks, Alex.  I missed that one the first time round.  "4-10 win advantage" for the Sox/Yankees would mean $30-$70 million extra in payroll presumably at $7 million per win, and hence a payroll of $140 million for the Jays in 2016.  That's a reflection on the way Jay ownership accounts for the value of winning in terms of broadcast revenues.  My brickbats would be reserved for Rogers if that were so. 

Thank you Michael for that wonderful list.

"I am more afraid of the Jays being in trouble without any injuries."

well said.

It doesn't even follow. If you are dramatically poorer than your competition (which you aren't) then shouldn't you be taking more risks and making variance your friend?

"This is a strange assumption. Why would the Jays allow both to leave?"


Why is that 'strange'? The Jays have a team president that clearly values long-term/sustainable team building. So from a team standpoint, giving free agent dollars to a 36-year old Bautista and a 34-year old Encarnacion after 2016 would not make much sense especially given their defensive issues (Edwin is a DH and Bautista is likely very close to being in the 1B/DH classification as well). Shapiro looks at $/WAR. He's not going to pay free agent money for past performance. The deal would have to make sense for the Jays.

From the standpoint of the players, they are two elite power hitters in the game that have spent the last few years being grossly underpaid, and can now cash out for what will likely be their last big contract. They could certainly take a hometown discount to stay in Toronto, but chances are you're still looking at $15-20M for Edwin and around $20M for Bautista. Keep in mind, $20M for Tulo, $20M for Martin, and two more expensive arbitration years for Donaldson are already set in stone post-2016.

So bringing both back is essentially expecting close to $100M for five players. Do you honestly expect Shapiro/Rogers to be OK with that? Bringing one back is entirely possible (Edwin seems like the more likely candidate to take a "discount"). Whether it would make sense for the Jays is another issue.

"Secondly, he said that the club has some depth needs. That's true- they don't have third basemen or catchers ready to go in the event of injury. "

who are these teams with all these mlb-quality players stashed in AAA?

last year we had the likes of Colabello, Hague, Goins, Carrera, kawasaki, etc. in reserve and it worked out just fine.

I'm thinking we know why AA left now.

"Winning, I think, has exponential potential impact there. Especially if you build [something] sustainable.

yeah the crowds last year were really caring about sustainability, Shapiro.

"So bringing both back is essentially expecting close to $100M for five players. Do you honestly expect Shapiro/Rogers to be OK with that? "

you're contradicting yourself. I thought you just said they care about $/war, not $/player.

"....Bringing one back is entirely possible...."

That's exactly my point.  But you were assuming that both would leave.

And it goes without saying that any contract has to "make sense" for the Jays.  I agree.  But there's no evidence that Bautista or Encarnacion are about to enter a steep decline.  I'm sure they will decline a little, but I don't see grounds to assume that they're heading off the cliff. When you're lucky enough to have superstars on your team, you try to keep them, as long as the price is affordable. Bautista, in particular, is a candidate to avoid the normal age-related declines, because he keeps himself in peak condition, and his skills (including his incredible eye at the plate and his tremendous swing) seem relatively sustainable. 

I find it funny how many assume EE is more affordable than Bautista. I think Bautista will have the lower price tag due to age. He'll be coming off his age 35 season so it'll be hard for him to get more than 3 years and $20 per year I'd think. EE while limited to DH is going to be coming off his age 33 season so a 3-5 year deal is possible.

Michael, thanks for that post. I'm not sure that's exactly how i would judge SP but that's great information.

Just gonna quickly eyeball the fangraphs war leaderboards for a quick categorization by fwar:

6+war = top-5 Cy contender
4.5+war = legit top end #1 (i.e. Ace)
3.5+war = #1
2.5-3.5war = #2
1.5-2.5war = #3
1.0-1.5war = #4
0.5-1.0war = #5

based on the last couple of years, dickey/estrada/chavez/hutch come in as 3/4s.

based on steamer projections:

Stroman 3.4 (#1/2)
Chavez 2.0 (#3)
Hutch 1.4 (#3/4)
Dickey 1.1 (#4/5)
Estrada 0.6 (#5)

by ra9war

Stroman 3.4 (#1/2)
Chavez 2.3 (#3)
Dickey 2.0 (#3)
Estrada 1.6 (#3/4)
Hutch 1.6 (#3/4)

by avg war

Stroman 3.4 (#1/2)
Chavez 2.2 (#3)
Dickey 1.6 (#3/4)
Hutch 1.5 (#3/4)
Estrada 1.1 (#4/5)

avg war per 200ip

Stroman 3.4 (#1/2)
Chavez 2.7 (#2/3)
Hutch 2.3 (#2/3)
Dickey 1.7 (#3/4)
Estrada 1.4 (#3/4)

and i'll just add in one more:

2yr Average WAR per 32gs

Stroman 4.9 (Ace)
Dickey 2.4 (#2/3)
Chavez 2.2 (#3)
Estrada 1.9 (#3)
Hutch 1.3 (#4)

It doesn't even follow. If you are dramatically poorer than your competition (which you aren't) then shouldn't you be taking more risks and making variance your friend?

There is competition for the division title and then there is competition for the wild card berths.  In the second competition, the Jays have an above-average payroll.  Anyways, in the particular context of the 2016 Blue Jays, spending makes a huge amount of sense.  Whether it continues beyond 2016 is more a matter of judgment (I still think it does given the size of the broadcast market, but I understand at least the other side of the argument). 

"Secondly, he said that the club has some depth needs. That's true- they don't have third basemen or catchers ready to go in the event of injury. "
who are these teams with all these mlb-quality players stashed in AAA?

It depends what you mean. Colabello in left-field for 2015 was not a depth answer.  Colabello at first-base/DH was.  Goins was a perfectly good depth answer at SS/2B, behind Reyes/Travis.  Valencia was a perfectly good depth answer at third base.  Martin/Navarro/Thole was a good depth answer.  Pompey in left-field was a good depth answer.  If you have a player who can play the position and can hit at replacement level or better given the position, you are set.  The 2015 Blue Jays went into the season with all the depth that you could want; the 2016 Blue Jays are not in the same position (by far) yet. 

Why do so many assume that JBO and EE will walk if they do not re-sign. It would seem more likely to assume that either or both will be traded if not extended. And there could be good value coming back. I don't know any more or less than anyone else but my educated guess is that EE is extended and JBO is dealt.

the beauty of Joey and EE's situation is that we're not committed either way, and how they perform this coming year will determine what we do going forward. I figure they'll both be worth near identical deals in the end.

"The 2015 Blue Jays went into the season with all the depth that you could want;"

depth that was remarkably cheap and easy to get.

Considering 10-5 rights and the fact that 2016 is a "go for it" year for the Jays, things would have to go pretty spectacularly sideways for either player to be dealt.

"....how they perform this coming year will determine what we do going forward..."

But it would be better to extend them before the 2016 season begins, rather than trying to negotiate a new deal when they are free agents, yes?  If they haven't signed a new deal by the beginning of the season, Bautista and Edwin and their agents are likely to postpone the negotiations until the end of the season, and then they are likely to test the free-agent market, which means that the bids from other teams will drive up their prices and perhaps make them unaffordable.

Trying to extend them now would also allow the Jays to decide whether a contract extension is affordable or not.  If they decide that Bautista and Encarnacion are demanding too much, then they can trade them (or one of them) either now or during the season. But as 2016 wears on, their trade value will rapidly diminish.  So I'd have to assume that the Jays are already talking contract extension with Bautista and Edwin now, or will be doing so very soon, just to test the waters and decide what to do, and perhaps to lay the groundwork for a deal, if a deal is possible.

Now a question for wise Bauxites with better memories than me:  I know that a few prominent Jays in the past have negotiated contract extensions during the course of the season, despite conventional wisdom that they should be "concentrating on baseball."  Are these rare examples?  Are contract extensions usually agreed at least a year before the potential free-agency date?  (I believe this is the case, but I'm not able to tote up the various examples on both sides of the ledger.)  And are there any examples (besides Marco Estrada) of prominent Jays waiting until free-agency and then negotiating an extension?  To me, it seems that this would be difficult and unlikely, but perhaps I am overlooking some examples.

On the depth issue:  the Jays have just signed Scott Diamond to a minor-league deal.  He pitched for the Twins from 2011 to 2013, with a decent season of 173 innings and 3.54 ERA in 2012.  Has been in the minors the last two seasons.  A reasonable depth signing for Buffalo, but I fear he's the 2016 version of Dave Bush or Jeff Francis.

He is a Canuck, however.

David Price's girlfriend on Twitter:

Tiffany Nicole
Convinced that there must be a written rule that in order to be a Red Sox fan, you have to be a complete and utter POS. Wow!

makes me smile.

Both Bautista and EE have 10/5 rights. Both players have spent 6-7 years with the organization. The team is coming off an ALCS appearance and play in a hitter's park. There is really no reason for either player to accept a trade elsewhere. They have a winning team, in a known environment, and play in a stadium that suits their skill set (remember they are playing for their next contracts).

It's not as simple as "re-sign them or trade them". You probably can't trade them, so it's re-sign them or play out the season and risk losing one or both of them for a draft pick(s).

Thanks, SK, for reminding me of the 10/5 rights.  Adds a complication.  Still think the Jays will be testing the waters for contract extensions during this off-season, rather than waiting until the end of the season, and I think the historical precedents suggest that this is a more likely scenario.

If we're contending next year, which we should be, what sense would it make to trade either of EE or JB? Only makes sense if disaster strikes and they are not part of the disaster. Play it out, resign one and let the other walk.

"last year we had the likes of Colabello, Hague, Goins, Carrera, kawasaki, etc. in reserve and it worked out just fine."

Not really. We were a .500 ballclub and AA had to trade almost half the farm to make it just fine.

Not really. We were a .500 ballclub and AA had to trade almost half the farm to make it just fine.

Really?

I like that WAR method for 1/2/3/4/5. Lets check a few Jay seasons...
1985
Stieb 6.8 - Ace
Key 5.1 - #1/Ace (after a year as a reliever)
Alexander 4.9 - #1/Ace (off waivers)
Clancy 2.0 - #3
Filer 0.8 - #5
Davis 0.2 - #5
Leal -0.7 - AAA

That year had 3 aces, 2 homegrown 1 off waivers, then a good #3 in Clancy (injury issues), then lots of crap.

1992
Guzman 5.5 - Ace
Key 3.9 - #1
Morris 2.9 - #2
Cone 1.7 - #3 (Ace if pro-rated to full season)
Stottlemyre 0.2 - #5
Stieb -0.2 - ugh, but was ace pre 1992
Hentgen -0.3 - ugh 19 wins the next year
Wells - -1.9 - then 200 wins afterwards

A big 4 then blech.

1993
Guzman 3.4 - #2 near #1
Hentgen 3.4 - #2 near #1
Stewart 1.5 - #3/4
Leiter 1.3 - #4
Stottlemyre 0.7 - #5
Morris -1.5 - uggggly

Solid 1/2, livable 3/4 then ugh.

In 92/93 Ward had 3+ WAR each year. Wow. All in relief.

So if the offense is good enough (ala 1993) you can get away with a weaker rotation but we could really use another 1/2 type.

that's good stuff. I wouldn't have thought the 85 team had 3 Aces. I wonder if the groupings would look much different back then.

i may actually try to download and excel fangraphs data for the last couple of years and see if I can't refine those WAR groupings a bit.

I think i'm interested in seeing how the numbers look on a WAR per Start basis.

When Shapiro was unofficially hired the Jays had sucked and he thought he was breaking it up/making the Team better. Even when he was officially hired, the Jays weren't the juggernaut they became. He wasn't too happy with A.A., but no one and I mean no one understood what was happening.

Right now I think hiring Mark Shapiro was a massive mistake, they don't need him, they need someone to continue the MAGIC! I just don't think he's the right guy for the job. The small market, small budget team he came from should never be THIS team again. I can understand not wanting to exceed $140.0 Million (or less), but when you are this close, winning must be EVERTHING.

That twit was from Oct 4, 2013. It might still be relevant, but I'm sure $200,000,000+ can change people's minds.

http://www.anypricefordavid.com

Not really. We were a .500 ballclub and AA had to trade almost half the farm to make it just fine.

The backups were fine. Reyes wasn't good enough. They started the year without a 5th starter and an established closer. AA had to trade the farm to rent Price for 2 months along with 2 relievers, and swap Reyes/Tulo, but the backups were fine.

Saunders is the guy that got injured and Colabello/Carrera wasn't a great replacement, but they could have put Pompey there and be fine. I mean, they couldn't even find a place for Valencia on the team and he was the short term backup at 3B. That's where Oakland played him.

Travis will not be the leadoff hitter in April. That makes trading Revere difficult. They like Cola to play some 1B, but he can't play 3B, so the real 3B backup has to be in Buffalo. These are roster construction issues that becomes big because the team will probably carry a huge bullpen, mostly because they don't have anybody that can pitch deep into ballgames. Stroman will have to be limited in his first complete year. Dickie might get to 200 ip, but I wouldn't bank on it at this point.

These are all problems that the management choose to have.

"Not really. We were a .500 ballclub and AA had to trade almost half the farm to make it just fine."

Yeah, last year we lost our #1 SP and starting LF and 2B for the season and were still one of the best teams in baseball, at which point our GM, rightly impressed, decided to go all in and field the best roster in baseball.

Wow, so now we're seeing some incredible negativity and false narratives ("traded the farm") about a baseball team that won 93 games, filled the ballpark with sell-out crowds, won its division and reached the league championship series and nearly reached the World Series.

I hope this "traded the farm" narrative doesn't encourage anyone to rewrite the true history of what happened in 2015.  The truth is that the Jays gave up a bunch of marginal prospects, plus 2 or 3 good ones, to acquire a pair of excellent veterans who put the finishing touches on a team that was already very good, despite under-performing its Pythagorean. Most of the farm remains intact.

"...they don't have anybody that can pitch deep into ballgames..."

Sure, if you want to judge the 2016 team in November of 2015, go right ahead.  Accuse management of having an unfinished team, when the off-season has barely begun and there are still 3 months to fill the holes.

Besides -- why do you think Stroman is incapable of pitching deep into ballgames?   Then there's Estrada, who had 9 games last season in which he pitched 7 or 8 innings.  But I suppose he's incapable of pitching deep too.

"I hope this "traded the farm" narrative doesn't encourage anyone to rewrite the true history of what happened in 2015. The truth is that the Jays gave up a bunch of marginal prospects, plus 2 or 3 good ones, to acquire a pair of excellent veterans who put the finishing touches on a team that was already very good, despite under-performing its Pythagorean. Most of the farm remains intact."

2-3 good prospects plus marginal prospects is usually the bulk of what makes a good farm system in the traditional sense. If you count guys who will contribute to the team in 3-6 years, sure we didn't trade the farm, but with regards to players that could contribute in 1016/2017 we traded most of our farm's top players. I would have made these trades 8 days a week, twice on Sunday, because Tulo is ridiculous and Price was worth it.

But, CF, stating that "the truth is that...Most of the farm remains intact"...that's just false. So is your statement that we gave up "a bunch of marginal prospects plus 2 or 3 good ones"

In case you forget, here's what the Jays gave up for Tulo, Price, Hawkins, Lowe, Revere

Top Prospects
Daniel Norris
Jeff Hoffman
Miguel Castro

Valuable Prospects
Jesus Tinoco
Jairo Labourt
Matt Boyd
Nick Wells

Marginal Prospects:
Jimmy Cordero
Alberto Tirado
Jacob Brent
Rob Rasmussen

That's 3-6 pitchers, at least 3 substantially talented pitchers who likely would have helped in 2016. Like I said, I make those trades all over again, but please China Fan, don't tell us people are putting incredibly negative false narratives out there when you're responding with equally false narratives.

Miguel Castro was not a "top prospect" -- he has never cracked a top 100 list, and he might never be more than a reliever.  And similarly, Nick Wells etc were not "valuable prospects."  That's grossly over-estimating them.

If you really think that 2 or 3 good prospects is "half the farm", please explain your mathematics.  If half of the farm was lost, it should be one of the worst minor-league organizations in baseball by now.  But the reality is that the majority of the Jays farm system is intact, and it continues to be ranked in the middle of MLB's farm systems, not one of the worst as you imply.  And there are certainly a lot more than 2 or 3 good prospects remaining -- especially if you include younger players like Osuna and Pompey who are younger than the top prospects in many other organizations.

Pick any list of the Jays top prospects before the 2015 season, and you'll have to admit that the majority are still in the Jays organization.  Of the top 20 Jays prospects on the MLB.com list last year, 15 of 20 are still in the organization.   Or use the top 30 list of Batters Box last October:  21 of 30 are still in the organization.  (And 3 of the 9 prospects who were traded were actually traded for Josh Donaldson, so the Jays only lost 6 of their top 30 for the mid-season trades.)  By any measure, the majority of the top prospects are still in the Jays system.

dalimon5, I agree with you.

Based on your list, we only gave up pitchers. Prospects that is.
Also we did not twist their arms to take these players.

I am fine with everything because we won 93 games and made the playoffs. No winning and not making the playoffs is another level of feeling for me.

There is a list of Jays top 30 prospects. We definitely lost a bunch.

dalimon i would change the label of your 2nd group to "Marginal Prospects" and your 3rd group to "Non Prospects".

3 good prospects (with decidedly mediocre performance in 2015), 3-4 longshots, and some ballbags.

Jays traded the farm for R.A. Dickey.

"Jays traded the farm for R.A. Dickey."
But that was a small farm.

cute

A lot of people seem to think the 1985 rotation is what we need to contend when it is the 1993 one that this club needs.

'85 had 3 legit aces (one was a near rookie, getting his first starts that year, another was a guy the Yankees released 2 years earlier, while the 3rd was a converted outfielder). That is rare. This year the entire AL had 3 pitchers with 4.5+ bWAR (which is what I used). The ENTIRE league vs the 1985 Blue Jays, both had the same number of pitchers with 4.5 WAR. Think about that. In 1985 there were 10 of them with 4.9 WAR, 3 were Jays. The way some are talking the Jays need that again well, that ain't gonna happen unless Sanchez & Osuna both take a major step forward.

The 1993 team didn't have an ace, but did have a past and a future one in Guzman & Hentgen along with a batch of other guys who had been but weren't anymore but now were 4/5 guys. In 2016 the Jays need inning eaters. Guys like Dickey, Aaron Harang might be useful, Happ could be.

I take "the farm" to refer to a large number of prospects. The number certainly seems exceptional to me.
Does anyone has actual stats to place the number of prospects traded during the 2015 season in a historical context?
Does any site track that.

Checking last years top 30...
1-10: gone: Castro, Graveman, Hoffman, Barretto, Norris (#1)
In majors for Jays: Osuna, Sanchez, Pompey

So 5 of 10 gone, 3 helpful now for Jays, only 2 still prospects (Pentecost, Nay)

11-20: Gone: Sean Nolin, Jairo Labourt
Promoted: nada
Still prospects: Lugo, Borucki, Lane Thomas, Sean Reid-Foley, Richard Urena, Rowdy Tellez, Dwight Smith Jr, Matt Smoral

21-30: Gone: Alberto Tirado, Matt Boyd
Majors: nada
Still prospects: John Stilson, Matt Dean, Dan Jansen, Andy Burns, DJ Davis, Taylor Cole, Anthony Alford, AJ Jimenez

I see a lot of guys who might be released, a few who have jumped the lists drastically (Alford) and a massive clearance at the top, not just by trades but also by guys doing what we wanted them to do. Help the major league team.

I don't see room for more than one "inning eater".

It's the August trades that energized the fan base. It's fine to have depth in the rotation, but will there be a another craze in September to go watch that depth in action?

If David Price stays in Toronto, I, Jose Bautista, agree to buy David Price all the drinks he wants for the entirety of the 2016 season.

If David Price stays in Toronto, I, Lebron James , agree to become a jays fan

If David Price stays in Toronto, I, Tulo, agree to Let him use my old ball glove

some funny stuff...

I concede the prospect headings I have could be relabelled, but the bigger point still stands, in my opinion.

Dawel Lugo was traded for Pennington I believe, to correct John's list.

I'd suggest it was the wins in August that energized the fanbase more than the trades. If they hadn't won, there wouldn't have been any energy.

If the team is in contention and winning in August/September, there will be a craze to watch the winning in action. It wasn't just Price's starts that were sold out.

Good catch Jdog - I was checking if the guy played for anyone else, figuring if he finished the season playing only for the Jays then he still was here forgetting the September trade would've avoiding him playing for anyone else. Don't think I'm going to worry about losing a guy who had a 550 OPS in Dunedin though, just 20 so he could become something but odds are against it.

Matt Hague appears to be off to Japan, per various internet sources. I wish him the best. CyberCavalier still around? Or will he be off to Japan to continue to follow Hague's career "with great interest" (in the words of Chancellor Palpatine).

So Blue Jays sign LHP Scott Diamond to MiLB contract with Spring Training invite. They also sell Matt Hague to Hanshin Tigers for $300K. They might call it something else, but what is, most certainly is.

Depth signing, and doing right to Matt Hague by letting him earn more money than he would have in AAA? Or what are you insinuating??

I got a good chuckle from that Jevant. Thanks.

Quoting Phantom Menace in any fashion makes me die a little inside, but...it seemed to fit. And hopefully after December 17, we all forget Lucas ever made a prequel trilogy.

Sorry for the Star Wars interlude to those who aren't interested, but glad I got a chuckle. :)

I think the idea of "selling the farm" means that you leave yourself with little to no young talent. If you have lots of young talent still, then you haven’t sold the farm, no matter how many kids you've trade.

so do the jays have little to no young talent?

not imo.

RH Stroman 25
RH Hutchison 25
RH Sanchez 23
RH Osuna 21
LH Greene 21

RH Reid-Foley 20
RH Harris 22
RH Hollon 21
LH Perdomo 22
RH Espada 19
RH Maese 19
LH Bergen 22


CF Pompey 23
RF Alford 21
LF Smith 23
3B Nay 22
SS Urena 20
2B Travis 25
1B Guerrero 17
DH Tellez 21
C Pentacost 23

OF Davis 21
C Jansen 21

It finally happened.  I ran an article on the 3 day rotation several years ago here.  Bill James is now advocating for it, but (Bill being Bill) he has a somewhat different take on the purpose. My version incorporated a "scheduled relief" component, and that was originally (as far as I can tell) a Bill James idea going back to Felipe Alou's bullpen usage in Montreal.  Bill's would involve somewhat more innings by starters than they currently throw, but in shorter spurts. 

The farm and young talent aren't always the same thing. You're cherry picking to make an argument that we didn't sell the farm. Change "sell the farm" to "sold the core of our farm that can help in the next few years" or "sold our best MLB ready pitching prospects" and it solves the problem with the statement that you seem to have issue with -"sold the farm."

Osuna/Sanchez/Stroman et all are not part of the farm and are not prospects, it's an entirely different area from the discussion of trading away MLB ready farm players which is what the original post intended when the statement was made that AA "sold the farm" in his trades.

If you're going to include young players in your argument that we didn't sell the farm because we have a bunch of them then that means that the Nationals, Marlins and Mets have the best farm systems with young players like Stanton, Fernandez, Harper, Syndergaard etc.

A team will never theoretically trade away every young player they have...they are constantly replenishing and players are constantly improving. I feel like some posters are interpreting "the farm" way too literally while also overlooking the fact that drafting and developing players of the caliber and potential of Daniel Norris, Syndergaard, Sanchez and Jeff Hoffman is very very difficult to do, especially going forward with the new limits on spending.

"You're cherry picking to make an argument that we didn't sell the farm. "

all due respect, but i'm not the one cherry picking.

Thank you uglyone for the wonderful list. dalimon5, I agree with you on the wording.

IMO, these players "would not have Bought the Farm".

Espada, Maese, Bergen and Guerrero. They were not on our farm long enough for the deadline deals. Mlb has rules that prohibit them.

This is an amazingly good site.
You don't have to be a genius, just someone smarter than a rock. If dumb as a fence post, you need no longer apply. You don't even have to think to reply.
You can grump and complain about everything all the time. Never say anything nice and question the judgement of everyone. No one gets offended, because no one wants to appear to be thin-skinned.
The only obligation is to be interesting or informative and have fun. Have a good day everyone. I don't think anything too significant occurs before the Winter Meetings, 6th - 10th December.

@uglyone

Well,actually yes. The Jays talent for players 25 and under is not particularly good. If you look at talent in a vacuum, it looks good but when you compare, the Jays don't have a lot of young talent at the major league and high minors ready. Look around the majors and you see teams like the Cubs and Astros are stacked with absurd levels of young talent but plenty of teams like the Red Sox, Rangers, have great systems with some top young talent as well (Betts, Odor, etc...). Then there are teams like the Royals who don't have many young players but have a lot of players who are in their primes or even pre-primes. The Jays' core is almost all over 30 and the system is now below average and almost bare in the upper minors.

The Marlins have the best what now? Add Stanton in there and sure the Top 2 are out of this world and Yelich is solid but after that... pray for rain.

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under
---------------------------
Jose Fernandez
Christian Yelich
Marcell Ozuna
Tyler Kolek
Henderson Alvarez
Jarred Cosart
J.T. Realmuto
Carter Capps
Josh Naylor
Jarlin Garcia

"The Jays talent for players 25 and under is not particularly good."

their actual performance says it is, actually.

If the Jays want, they could easily replenish the farm by trading Tulo and Donaldson.

@uglyone

How do you figure?

Last year, the Jays got a total of 5.7 WAR from all their players 25 and under. The other teams in the East...The Red Sox got 15.4.The O's got 9.4, Yankees got the same. Rays got 12.1, The teams I'd think to be top in young talent... The Cubs got 19.4 WAR. The Astros got 17.7. etc...I am not going to look beyond that, but I'd be shocked if the Jays were not one of the worst teams for young player WAR. Combine that with what is now a mediocre system, and the Jays are definitely not one of the better off teams in terms of young talent.

And Bautista & EE.

Well Bautista and EE might have no trade clauses.

But if the Jays trade all these guys they'd probably have the best farm system in baseball.

Plus they'd probably be drafting first overall.

With all that young talent, in 3-5 years they could make the playoffs.

"Last year, the Jays got a total of 5.7 WAR from all their players 25 and under. The other teams in the East...The Red Sox got 15.4.The O's got 9.4, Yankees got the same. Rays got 12.1, The teams I'd think to be top in young talent... The Cubs got 19.4 WAR. The Astros got 17.7. etc...I am not going to look beyond that, but I'd be shocked if the Jays were not one of the worst teams for young player WAR. Combine that with what is now a mediocre system, and the Jays are definitely not one of the better off teams in terms of young talent."

Other teams were forced to play their kids more, because their rosters weren't as good. Our number is also lower because our two best performing kids missed most of the year to injury.

but on a performance basis, our kids were as good or better than most of the teams you mention.

Kids who were under 25 last year, and their last 2yrs of war per 650pa/200ip (avg fwar and ra9war for pitchers) against 2 of the highest rated "young cores" in baseball:

RH Stroman (24): 4.4 (157.2ip) - RF Betts (22): 5.0 (867pa) ------- 3B Bryant (23): 6.5 (650pa)
2B Travis (24): 6.2 (238pa) ---- SS Bogaerts (22): 2.4 (1248pa)---- OF Schwarber (22): 4.5 (273pa)
RH Sanchez (22): 3.5 (121.1ip)-- LH Rodriguez (22): 3.2 (121.2ip) - SS Russell (21): 3.6 (523pa)
RH Osuna (20): 4.7 (69.2ip) ---- C Swihart (23): 3.2 (309pa) ------ OF Soler (23): 1.0 (501pa)
RH Hutch (24): 1.4 (335.0ip) --- LH Owens (22): 1.9 (63.0ip) ------ OF Alcantara (23): 0.0 (332pa)
CF Pompey (22): 1.8 (148pa) ---- C Vazquez (24): 1.9 (201pa) ------ 2B Baez (22): -0.6 (309pa)

I would agree with those who are negative about the state of the Jays farm and young players now. Yes Stroman is going to have a full year this year and maybe Travis gets healthy, but other than Pompey we have no one ready to step in this year or even probably next. All our best prospects in the minors are in the low minors and likely won't be a factor til September of 17 or most likely spring of 18. Meaning guys like Alford, Reid-Foley, Harris, Pentacost, etc. Girado might be able to contribute but that's about it.

And most of those other teams you mentioned Glevin do have guys in the minors closer to the majors and ready to step in as soon as next year. This team is getting very old very fast and while 16 should be another playoff appearance 17 is going to be rough.

This team seems to have an issue with signing free agent pitchers, partly due to Canada, partly due to ballpark and partly due to this division with all the hitter parks. We're never going to get reclamation projects looking to rebuild value here and it looks like we don't have the money to spend 30 million on guys like Price. So that means acquisitions like Estrada and Chavez. The best way for us to build up starting depth is from within. And in players like Syndergarrd, D'Sciafani, Henderson, Graveman, Norris, Hoffman, etc we traded most of them away. Starting pitching til we get the next wave up is going to be very spotty. Just hope our hitting and defense is good enough to carry us til then.

Wow at taking relievers who pitched 70-80 innings and then normalizing their war to 200 IP. Sure makes Osuna look awesome. Same for Sanchez. You can't compare relievers like that and also can't compare players with 200 AB like Travis to guys with way more playing time.

2015 Batting fWAR Ages 14-25

Team    G   PA     WAR  WAR/100PA MLB Rank
Cubs    919 3449   16.9 0.490     11
Red Sox 583 2185   13.9 0.636      6
Astros  745 2587   13.7 0.530     10
Cards   655 2053   13.2 0.643      4
Orioles 315 1105    7.1 0.653      5
Rays    455 1116    6.7 0.600      8
Yanks   418 1148    5.1 0.444     12
B-Jays  127  341    2.5 0.733      1
ML Avg  515 1681    6.3 0.372

2015 Pitching fWAR Ages 14-25

Team    G   IP     WAR  WAR/100IP MLB Rank 
Cards   231  553   9.5  1.718      4
Mets    257  443.1 7.2  1.624      7
Braves  326 1037.2 7.0  0.675     25
Rays    149  473   5.4  1.142     12
Yanks   163  344.1 3.3  0.958     15
B-Jays  163  381.2 3.2  0.838     19
Orioles  89  252.2 2.3  0.910     16
Red Sox  91  257.1 1.5  0.583     27
ML Avg  147 373    3.7  0.988

Steamer 600pa/200ip projections for those same players in 2016:

Stroman 3.4 - Betts 4.5 ---- Bryant 5.1
Travis 2.7 -- Bogaerts 3.4 - Schwarber 3.2
Osuna 2.5 - Russell 2.5 ---- Rodriguez 2.9
Hutch 2.4 - Baez 2.5 ------- Vazquez 2.2
Pompey 1.7 - Soler 1.4 ----- Swihart 1.7
Sanchez 0.2- Alcantara 1.0 - Owens 1.6

ach that got messed up.

Stroman 3.4 - Betts 4.5 ---- Bryant 5.1
Travis 2.7 -- Bogaerts 3.4 - Schwarber 3.2
Osuna 2.5 -- Rodriguez 2.9 - Russell 2.5
Hutch 2.4 --- Vazquez 2.2 -- Baez 2.5
Pompey 1.7 -- Swihart 1.7 -- Soler 1.4
Sanchez 0.2 - Owens 1.6 ---- Alcantara 1.0

Yeah those numbers look more realistic, although I heavily question Hutch at 2.4. Anyway those numbers are not positive in light of the fact that the next wave of Jays prospects is 2 years away. Sox and Cubs do have guys ready to make the next step up sooner.

Top prospects next in line, age and highest level last year:

Toronto

LH C.Greene (20, AA): 4.15fip
CF A.Alford (20, A+): 153wrc+

Boston

1B S.Travis (21, AA): 140wrc+
2B W.Rijo (19, A+): 107wrc+

Chicago

RF B.McKinney (20, AA): 116wrc+
CF A.Almora (21, AA): 105wrc+

I think Hutchison is the biggest wild card we have for the near future. If he can regain the slider he used in the second half of '14 he I think can be a low 2/high 3 in the rotation. If he can't than he could just never recover. His fastball and its command were there last year, he just had no pitch to put away players with. He'd get ahead and they'd foul off everything until they tired him out and they got it in play. But with that slider that made everyone so excited about him going into 15, he's the second best starter on the team after Stroman.

Rosenthal: Jays not expected to be major factor for Price.

I'm giving Shapiro the benefit of the doubt, but I'll be pretty dismayed if the Jays run out a series of sensible, "value" .500 teams over the next decade. And I'd like to know what he envisions as his playoff rotation in 2016. Let's say he's facing Price/Arrieta/Lester in the WS. Would he be content starting Stroman/Estrada/Dickey against that trio?

Let's not forget that we started 2015 with a rotation of Hutch, Dickie, Buerhle, Sanchez, & Norris. A lot can happen between the first day of the season and the last.

I'd say Stroman, Estrada, Dickie, Chavez, Hutch is already an upgrade.

JB21 U are so correct. Imagine if Jays trade for Danny Salazar with Pillar, and sign Jordan Zimmerman 5/120 and trade Dickey.
Trade for Grilli from Atlanta. Sign Navarro or trade Colabello for Norris of Padres.

Stroman, Zimmerman, Salazar, Estrada and Chavez/Hutchison brings you in around $142 MM.
Not as good as Price Stroman, Salazar, Estrada but a heck of lot better than Price, Stroman, Estrada, Dickey and ........ and only 4 Million higher in Payroll than how we ended the year.

"I'm giving Shapiro the benefit of the doubt, but I'll be pretty dismayed if the Jays run out a series of sensible, "value" .500 teams over the next decade. And I'd like to know what he envisions as his playoff rotation in 2016. Let's say he's facing Price/Arrieta/Lester in the WS. Would he be content starting Stroman/Estrada/Dickey against that trio?"


I don't think it's fair to put that on Shapiro. He has come into a situation with a mediocre (for now) minor league system where his best prospects aside from Pompey are in the low minors, and an MLB team that doesn't have many young/cheap difference making talent aside from Stroman, Travis (when healthy), and Pillar. Combine all that with an ownership group that appears to be keeping payroll at the same spot it was last season despite backloaded salaries (Martin) and big arbitration raises (Donaldson) coming into play. I can't see any scenario where the Jays can realistically re-sign Price unless Rogers drastically increases payroll, and that doesn't appear to be the case at all.

I'm honestly not against going the "depth" route and adding more pieces like Chavez who will add a win or two here and there without big dollars or long commitments. Maybe not the sexy approach to team building that AA had (big names, big trades, big dollars, etc), but with Rogers owning the team, that's the best way to build a sustainable winner because there are only so many $20M/year contracts you can add before payroll becomes a big issue (and it's an issue now).

If you look at the Indians, every starter they currently have is either homegrown or were traded for as prospects and developed internally. That's why they were able to sign them cheaply. The Jays need to go that route. That means, try to lock up Stroman right now. That means, stretch Osuna out so he can potentially be a difference maker rather than a ~1 win reliever. Keep Pompey in AAA as depth in 2016 and groom him for a 2017 OF spot. And so on. The more cost controlled difference makers this team can develop as quick as possible, the better. That means more money they can allocate in the future for free agents without having to worry about depth.

Last year the prospects were Norris, Pompey , Pillar and Travis at the AAA level, the rest of the prospects were in the low A level. Osuna was Single A level prospect.

Travis was a trade for Goes Pillar was up only because Saunders was injured and than moved to centre as Pompey could not handle the pressure.

So Shaapiro has similar talent in the lower level with the missing of 3 players who were MLB ready.

Listened to John Morosi on a Podcast. He said Jays are predominately working on the Trade Market and doing very little with Free Agents. I find that bizzare, because they have nothing much to trade and after that playoff run should have as much money as they want to sign anyone they want. The only reason to be there is if you've already got your Top Starter and are waiting until the Winter Meetings to announce it. If they can't acquire a Starter as good as, or better than Stroman, this offseason could become a disaster, because no other team will be doing so little.

Listened to John Morosi on a Podcast. He said Jays are predominately working on the Trade Market and doing very little with Free Agents. I find that bizzare, because they have nothing much to trade and after that playoff run should have as much money as they want to sign anyone they want.

I do not find it bizarre. This is exactly what I've been openly concerned about given some of the consistent hints we've been getting from outside sources and reading between the lines from Shapiro himself.

If Rogers can't find it within themselves to flex their budget and spend as much as the Red Sox and the San Francisco freaking Giants of the world during a clear 1-2 year Championship window, then I will truly be disgusted with this ownership.

I hold out *some* hope that LaCava has inherited some of AA's stealthiness and that most of this stuff is misinformation.

To not even be seriously in the running for Price, with the inherent advantage the team gained with their playoff run, is asinine. How often are the Jays going to get an inside track on a player like that heading into an offseason where you're putting the finishing touches on a WS contender?

The good news is that they would only have to sign 1 Free Agent, ( Price or Zimmerman)
Trading an excess outfielder, and an excess 1st Baseman, and a couple of lower level prospects, probably gets the Jays a SP, a backup catcher and a reliever.

Than trade Dickey for prospects reload , than we are done.

6000 NEW season Ticket Holders, and double the amount of flex packs sold compared to last year at the same time.

Like everyone I'd love to have Price here long term but like Shapiro I fear what a 7 year contract at $30+ mil per year would do to the budget in the future. I remember years ago Gillick saying 3 years is safe for a pitcher.

Lets go back 5 years top bWAR in the AL...
Felix Hernandez - was 24 then and threw 200+ every year since 107+ ERA+, that works.
Clay Buchholz - was 25 then has yet to get 200 innings in a season, alternates good and bad years
John Danks - another 25 year old, under 200 innings and sub 100 ERA+ every year but one where he had a 100 ERA+ in 170 IP.
Jered Weaver - 27 years old, twice over 200 IP, 3 times over 100 for ERA+, just a 81 last year
Jon Lester - 26 years old, over 200 IP all but one year, over 100 ERA+ in all but one year.

So if you gave a 7 year deal to any of the top 5 in the AL that year you were getting a guy under 28, with 3 of the 5 not being aces more than 3 of the 5 years, and still have 2 years to go.

Back to 2008 to get 7 year guys so their contracts would just be ending now.
Cliff Lee - 29 years old, beauty until the last 2 years, one with just 13 starts and a 103 ERA+, plus 2015 being 0 IP.
Danks - see above but 2 years younger at start.
Halladay - 31 years old, appeared to be an ideal candidate - I bet at the time we'd have all loved it, but 3 Cy caliber years then 218 IP of 77 ERA+ and 2 years of 0 IP at the end.
Lester - see above with 2 more years of youth
Zack Greinke - 24 years old, 2 years barely over 100 ERA+, 2 years sub 200 IP but well worth it, 134 ERA+ over the 7 years.

So, what do we all see here? Signing the guys over 27 would've led to heartbreak in the end but with some good years at the start. The guys who are dominating these lists are 25 and under, suggesting that bringing up kids with talent might be the best way to get an ace. Imagine the Jays going through the past 4 years with $20-30 mil missing from the budget as it goes to a retired or ineffective Roy Halladay. Signing Price is asking for that to happen when the younger prospects in the system are ready to rumble in the majors.

Regarding EE and Jose: looking back, the Jays have virtually never had to deal with the problem of what to do with an aging star, as they have historically let all of their best players go to free agency (or have traded them when it became clear that they were about to leave). Halladay, Key, Henke, Delgado, Green, Alomar, and White are all examples of this. The only Blue Jay to stay with the club through his declining years was Joe Carter: his decline was masked by superficially gaudy HR/RBI numbers, but he was a negative WAR player for three years before finally being cut loose after 1997 (when he was 37). So they haven't been here before.

There isn't really a good choice. The options are to re-up Jose and EE and watch them do what Carter did, or to let them go, lose a lot of fan goodwill, and watch them launch baseballs for (in the worst case) a divisional rival. With the Jays' luck being what it is, they would hit a number of game-winning home runs at the Rogers Centre against their former club.

(The wrong way to do it is what the Rockies did with Tulo: sign him to a long contract, promise that they'll consult him before trading him, and then - surprise! - trade him without telling him. That's not a way to build good karma.)

As for Price, there isn't a wholly wonderful option either. If the Jays sign him, they'll probably eventually have to eat somewhere between 50 and 100 million dollars of his contract - it's unlikely that he will be effective for all seven or eight years of his contract. If they don't sign him, they lose competitive ground to the team that does, they lose fan goodwill, and they discourage the players that remain.

I'm glad I'm not the GM, and don't have to make those choices. As a fan, I want the Jays to sign everybody and hang the cost, but it's not my money. I kind of hope they either go big or go home - I don't want to have to endure another decade or two of sorta okay 83-79 teams, even if this is the way to ensure maximum profitability for the parent corporation.

Regarding EE and Jose: looking back, the Jays have virtually never had to deal with the problem of what to do with an aging star, as they have historically let all of their best players go to free agency (or have traded them when it became clear that they were about to leave).

So, it's a new problem because they've never extended an aging star?
You mean it's an old problem and we already know what they will do?
QO and check if they are interested in a team friendly offer to finish their career here.

Pretty simple.

Bautista and Encarnacion are both more like Delgado than like Carter.   In Carlos' last year (at age 37), he was hitting .298/..393/.521 on May 7 when his hip pain forced him to stop.  He had a torn labrum and that was it.  Up until that point, he had always hit, and I think that Bautista and Encarnacion are good bets to do the same.

It would probably not be ideal to have both of them around on big contracts after 35.  They can both hit, but in the event that mobility becomes an issue for both, you only have one DH slot. 

this narrative that Shapiro is in a tough spot has got to be nipped in the bud.

He has one of the best rosters in baseball, has plenty of payroll space, few longterm committments, no bad contracts, a very solid group of young talent and prospects, and no players in their serious decline years aside from a knuckleballer, and a fanbase that just demonstrated to ownership what a cash cow they potentially have here.

He has the easiest GM job in the world at the moment. It is an almost impossible for him to screw up too badly, and very easy for him to win a title or three.

Anyone even hinting that he is in a tough spot is kidding themselves.

He has one of the best rosters in baseball, has plenty of payroll space, few longterm committments, no bad contracts, a very solid group of young talent and prospects, and no players in their serious decline years aside from a knuckleballer, and a fanbase that just demonstrated to ownership what a cash cow they potentially have here.

Plenty of payroll space given the team needs?  Are you sure that ownership has told Shapiro that he can spend the money that would be required to sign David Price (say) and acquire other pitchers in addition?  BBRef has the Blue Jays marked down in 2019 for 12 players and $80 million.  That is with no Bautista, no Encarnacion and no Price.  If the budget is going to be in the $130-$140 million range indefinitely, that is not a great long-term position to be in.

Given Anthopoulos' history of promises of acquiring talent in November that did not materialize in March (perhaps due to inconsistent behaviour of ownership), it seems presumptuous to blame Shapiro for taking a cautious approach to public pronouncements.  It seems to me much more honest to acknowledge that Jay ownership has not reliably provided payroll limits that make sense given the market .  We'll see where they are in March.

QO and check if they are interested in a team friendly offer to finish their career here.

Pretty simple.

I agree with you that Jose and EE merit qualifying offers - I don't think there's a problem there. And it never hurts to ask whether either player would be willing to accept a team-friendly contract to stay in Toronto. They might be more comfortable staying here, after all.

But it gets trickier if either or both of them - quite sensibly - decides to get as much money as possible while they can. That's when the Jays would have some tough decisions to make.

he has two committments in 2019 - $20m each to a 34yr old Tulo and a 36yr old Martin. That's it, that's all.

he entered this offseason with one of the best rosters in baseball, with only a $100m payroll, and a need to fill out a starting staff that featured a young top of the rotation SP and 3 other good young SP talents, with one of the biggest SP free agent classes in recent history.

so far, he has chosen to spend $30m on Dickey, Estrada, and Chavez.

Bautista and Encarnacion are both more like Delgado than like Carter.

Somebody who is into this sort of thing could probably come up with Families Of Aging Players or something like that. Off the top of my head, I see the following categories:

• Sudden ending due to injury: a player keeps being excellent until suddenly something goes PING and it's all over. I'll put Delgado in this class. Nolan Ryan possibly belongs there too. Roy Halladay also.
• Nagging injuries: a player is still good when healthy, but is healthy less and less often. There's a bunch of players like this, I think.
• Gradual fading of skills. Carter belongs here.
• One morning, it's all gone. I think Frank Thomas belongs here.

I agree with Mike, the payroll is not in good shape going forward. I think enough has been said about our young players performance and what we have in the high minors (not very much). As for complaints about the payroll. We had the highest payroll of any postseason team last year. If 140 million isn't enough to win you're doing things wrong, because it shows an organizational failure to develop home grown prospects and sign them to friendly deals.

Also why are we blaming Shapiro for deals? He has said he's not even attending winter meetings. For now LaCava is the GM and from what we know the moves are on his initiative.

Good Or Better LH Starting Pitchers:

In House (ranked):
1)Ryan Borucki: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=boruck000rya
2)Matt Smoral: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=smoral000mat
3)Evan Smith: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=smith-000eva
4)Travis Bergen: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=bergen000tra
5)Shane Dawson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=dawson000sha
As these Players can be seen/evaluated, there is nothing available for the MLB Team before 2018 at the earliest.

Free Agency (Ranked):
1)David Price: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml
2)Wei-Yin Chen (Q.O.): http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml
3)Scott Kazmir: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml
4)J.A. Happ: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml
Beyond this point, it's really digging deep into the barrel to find much if anything.

It's not that 7-8 year contracts are bad, it's who's available at the time. Last year the Jays once had two Lefties, two Righties and a Knuckler for a decent mix. For 2016, the Jays have NO lefties and people are trying to trade the Knuckler. This is a work in progress, that's failing badly thus far.

I do not think it's possible that Toronto would sign a Player with a Qualifying Offer unless they are one of the very best at that position. Wei-Yin Chen does not qualify as an exception. And other than Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmermann, no other Pitcher qualifies. Too many people are concerned with how much a player makes. That's immaterial. Too many people are concerned with the length of term. That's immaterial. The Jays must consider the available alternatives. Every possible inhouse LHP that might pitch on the MLB Team in the next two years has been traded. Good Free Agent options are extremely rare. Average Free Agent options are poor, to be uncritical. Less than average Free Agent options are next to worthless, or make Jesse Chavez look extremely good.

What do we have left? Just one really good LHP and just one barely acceptable LHP. David Price is one option, the best alternative, the really good LHP. He's a guarantee to put this Team in the Postseason. With him we get the Stud Ace we lost when Roy left. Scott Kazmir is the other option, the barely acceptable LHP. He will probably need "to contend with the impression that he fades down the stretch." He's at best, just another mid-Rotation arm.

That's not what I am saying, Kasi.  Between broadcasting market and in-person market, the Blue Jays are a large market team that ought to be consistently rolling out comparable payrolls to the Red Sox, i.e. just under the luxury tax threshold.  They may decide to do exactly that- in which case Shapiro might stealthily make a last minute bid for Price.  What I am saying is that it makes no sense to throw brickbats at Shapiro before we have some idea of the payroll parameters imposed on him by ownership that has not been renowned for its consistency.

...and a need to fill out a starting staff that featured a young top of the rotation SP and 3 other good young SP talents...

There is a problem with that statement.
...featured a young top of the rotation SP...
Marcus Stroman fits well here, but throwing more than 180.0 IP is extremely unlikely.
...and 3 other good young SP talents...
Aaron Sanchez fits well here, but throwing more than 150.0 IP is extremely unlikely. This is aside from the hole it leaves in the Bullpen, but who replaces him in the Rotation when he runs out of gas.
Roberto Osuna fits well here, but throwing more than 120.0 IP is extremely unlikely. This is aside from the hole it leaves in the Bullpen, but who replaces him in the Rotation when he runs out of gas.
Drew Hutchison might fit here and should manage 200.0 + IP easily. I just don't know if he'll have solved his problems yet.

I'm not "blaming" Shapiro for deals

Heck, he may look brilliant for spending $30m on dickey, estrada, and chavez if they all have good years, especially compared to some of the guys who'll get $20m this winter. But let's acknolwedge that he has alreqdy added $30m to the payroll, so hardly has his financial hands tied.

But let's not kid ourselves - he has a very good roster, and a nice chunk of change to work with, as the $30m outlay already shows. He is not in a tough position whatsoever, but rather one of the best.

and this idea that most MLB teams have a bunch of mlb-calibre talent sitting in AAA has to stop, too. it's just not factual.

There has been no signs Mike that the Jays are willing to shoulder a 180 million dollar payroll. Bemoaning the fact that we need to be top 5 in baseball to succeed instead of top 10 is pretty silly. Fact is the Jays have a good payroll and their ownership supports them fairly well. We might wish they had more, but all signs this offseason has pointed them to being not in for Price and not raising payroll much past 140-150 million dollars. A well run organization should be able to consistently compete for playoff spots when they're top ten in the league in payroll. I've said many times before that AAs moves make a lot more sense if the org was willing to go to 180-200 million dollar payroll. If they just stay put like it seems they have there isn't a lot of wiggle room to make big pricey acquisitions.

The Red Sox 3 year payroll average is $166 million.  That should be the Blue Jay figure.  I am not holding my breath.

"he entered this offseason with one of the best rosters in baseball, with only a $100m payroll, and a need to fill out a starting staff that featured a young top of the rotation SP and 3 other good young SP talents, with one of the biggest SP free agent classes in recent history."


That's quite a rosy way of describing Hutchison, Sanchez, and Osuna ("3 other good young SP talents") when one is coming off a down season, another was one of the worst starters in baseball (5.21 FIP, 5.05 BB/9) before he was moved to the pen, and the last just had a career high 78 IP (regular+post season) all out of the bullpen. While I'm prepared to give Hutchison a chance to redeem himself in 2016, to call the other two anything beyond what they are (relievers who need a year or two of development/stretching out to become viable rotation options) is incredibly optimistic. No contending team would have either of those two in the 2016 big league rotation. The AAA rotation? Certainly, but not the bigs.

In reality, Shapiro inherited 2 SP options: Stroman and Hutchison. He picked up Dickey's option (a no brainer given team need) to make it 3. After that, there was nothing in both the MLB and AAA area to fill rotation spots unless you were fooling yourself into thinking Aaron Sanchez was an MLB starter (which unless he develops a 2nd plus pitch and/or a swing and miss pitch, he's not). You won't find a single SP option in AAA because the team traded Norris, Hoffman, and Boyd 3 months ago, and Chad Jenkins is out of options so he either makes the team or pitches for someone else. There was no depth, and even after re-signing Estrada and trading for Chavez, they still need 1 or 2 more starters plus four AAA starters after signing Diamond.

As far as "choosing to spend on Dickey, Estrada, and Chavez", how can you justify declining Dickey's option? Despite being old and often frustrating to watch, Dickey's actually improved in every season since joining the Jays (RA9-WAR of 2.4, 2.6, and 3.6 from 2013-15 respectively) and has averaged over 215 IP per season over that span. Yes, he could fall off the face of the earth at any moment given his skill set, but with only Stroman and Hutchison under contract, how could they possibly not pick up Dickey's option and depend on the free agent market (a huge risk/uncertainty) to replace what he could realistically provide in 2016?

The Jays have a lot of money tied up to existing talent and projected arbitration raises, with quite a few holes to fill that wouldn't have been cheap to fix even before signing Estrada and trading for Chavez. To suggest they have a plethora of dollars available with a foolproof roster is very inaccurate.

Not sure why we should have the same payroll as a team with $370m of annual operating revenue. Even given our playoff run, Jays are probably under $300m.

$150m would be a good target.

Broadcast revenue.  I know that's not the way Rogers accounts for it, but the reality is that the Blue Jays are worth a lot more to Rogers than is what is reflected in the amount that RSN pays them for broadcast rights.  Non-arms-length transactions...

Mike,

Everyone addresses the cost side as that is independent of the equation.

Let's discuss the revenue side.
1. MLB Central increases excluding National TV which is fixed have increases by 8-10% per annum to each team, due to Belp, Royalties and Fees, MLBLAM and Regional TV increases for shared pool. Lets agree to $10 MM USD increase per annum.
2. Increase of ticket prices by an average 2% per annum. $1 USD net per annum.
3. Rogers Media increase to TBJ as it relates to Regional Tv share (average rate)
Additional amounts of 2 MM per annum for the remainder of the decade.
4. Corporate Sponsorship increase due to success and more aggressive business operations, that is why Shapiro was suppose to be hire.
Total these increases excluding any playoff participation, plus Rogers Media Advertising benefits.
My belief is that revenues will increase by $15 MM a year in USD per annum and therefore payroll costs as a % of revenue over the next four years remain the same or less.

"That's quite a rosy way of describing Hutchison, Sanchez, and Osuna ("3 other good young SP talents") when one is coming off a down season, another was one of the worst starters in baseball (5.21 FIP, 5.05 BB/9) before he was moved to the pen, and the last just had a career high 78 IP (regular+post season) all out of the bullpen. While I'm prepared to give Hutchison a chance to redeem himself in 2016, to call the other two anything beyond what they are (relievers who need a year or two of development/stretching out to become viable rotation options) is incredibly optimistic. No contending team would have either of those two in the 2016 big league rotation. The AAA rotation? Certainly, but not the bigs. "

I find it interesting that you dismiss one for high ERA (but good FIP), and then dismiss the other for high FIP (but tood ERA).

The truth is what I said it is - these are three good young SP talents who could compete for a spot on any rotation in baseball.


"In reality, Shapiro inherited 2 SP options: Stroman and Hutchison. He picked up Dickey's option (a no brainer given team need) to make it 3. After that, there was nothing in both the MLB and AAA area to fill rotation spots unless you were fooling yourself into thinking Aaron Sanchez was an MLB starter (which unless he develops a 2nd plus pitch and/or a swing and miss pitch, he's not). You won't find a single SP option in AAA because the team traded Norris, Hoffman, and Boyd 3 months ago, and Chad Jenkins is out of options so he either makes the team or pitches for someone else. There was no depth, and even after re-signing Estrada and trading for Chavez, they still need 1 or 2 more starters plus four AAA starters after signing Diamond."

calling norris and hoffman depth (never mind jenkins or boyd), right after you completely dismissed sanchez and osuna, is just funny. and of course we just traded away a reliver who was as good SP depth as the names you are lamenting.

"As far as "choosing to spend on Dickey, Estrada, and Chavez", how can you justify declining Dickey's option? Despite being old and often frustrating to watch, Dickey's actually improved in every season since joining the Jays (RA9-WAR of 2.4, 2.6, and 3.6 from 2013-15 respectively) and has averaged over 215 IP per season over that span. Yes, he could fall off the face of the earth at any moment given his skill set, but with only Stroman and Hutchison under contract, how could they possibly not pick up Dickey's option and depend on the free agent market (a huge risk/uncertainty) to replace what he could realistically provide in 2016?"

I am not arguing whether these are good signings or not.

Just that $30m has been spent already, and it could have been spent any which way shapiro wanted to spend it, or not at all, if money had to be saved.

it may very well be money well spent.


"The Jays have a lot of money tied up to existing talent and projected arbitration raises, with quite a few holes to fill that wouldn't have been cheap to fix even before signing Estrada and trading for Chavez. To suggest they have a plethora of dollars available with a foolproof roster is very inaccurate."

No, my specific comments were accurate. your shaded generalities are inaccurate.

Shapiro inherited one of the best rosters in baseball, and $100m in payroll committments, none of that $100m for poor value, for a team that has run $130m payrolls and who likely have more available than that. That is specific, accurate fact.

Trying to spin his position as being a tough one is not just clearly wrong, but ridiculously so.

Mike that non-arm's length transaction is a red herring. It may be a marginal difference, but there it doesn't account for the $150m difference between Boston and Toronto revenue. $10m at the most. Media operates on the slimmest of margins and the advertising dollar does not result in TV contracts in Canada like it does in the States.

UO Sanchez is not a starting pitcher. The guy just doesn't have the repertoire to it having never developed a strike out pitch and his rather extreme platoon splits.

Osuna I think can and could be a great starter, but even if he was willing to move to the rotation right now, it's pretty difficult seeing him getting over 120 ip next year given the workload he has had the last two.

Which leaves volatile Hutch, who could recover his 14 form or just be unplayable.

So yes Norris, Hoffman and Boyd are all options we could have had, and in some cases better than our current ones.

As for payroll, when you have 100 million locked up but only a cap of 140-150 million, that limits you a lot on what you can actually acquire. Plus I'd like them to think of doing things like perhaps locking up Stroman and one of Travis, Pompey or Pillar to a team friendly deal that takes them past their arb years, which would be more expensive for them now but would save us money later on. We could sign a Price, but that would pretty much lock us out of any roster flexibility after next year unless they're willing to raise payroll. Which they're not, so get over it people.

"I'll give you the best lineup in baseball, a stud young SP and a bunch of good young relievers (some with legit starting potential), and $30-50 mil to fill in the rest of the rotation. Sorry for putting you in such a tough spot."

It's a shame you need more than one starting pitcher. Also kinda not so hidden in your comment is the only way to fill the starting rotation from within is to make your relief crew not very good. If you move Osuna and Sanchez to start it one has the potential to not work and backfire and second it leaves you with a pretty weak pen. Maybe they can try the Castro/Osuna promotion plan next year with some of our A ball pitchers.

And given what starting pitching costs these days 30-50 million is way not enough to acquire strong talent on the FA market. I wonder what's the best way to get cheap controllable starting pitching talent? Oh yeah keep your own guys, wonder why genius AA never thought of that. Not to mention he had to know the issue Toronto has in signing FAs, especially pitchers given the ballpark and division. We have to overpay to get people to sign here.

Best lineup in baseball I'll grant you, but those guys behind it are getting old and like others have said getting more expensive. When your budget is only 140-150 million dollars and you have so much money sunk into post 30 year old hitters it restricts what you can do. Which is why short term pickups like Estradas contract and getting Chavez make sense, because when they come off the books they can extend Stroman and hopefully are graduating pitchers from the minors to the rotation. If they go and sign a Price that means almost certainly EE and Jose go and It restricts their ability to extend guys like Stroman and Pillar/Travis.

Kasi, it's only November and you are already sticking a fork in the Jays' 2016 chances? 

obviously you don't think AA should have traded so much young talent, so am i correct in saying that you believe sustainability should trump a short-term competitive window?  or would you have made the deals at the deadline that he did?  (let's leave the big push of 2013 aside for now - clearly, neither of the big trades worked the way AA hoped). 

AA had always stated that he was acquiring young talent in part to deal for established talent - it's hard to fault the guy for doing an excellent job at precisely that.  he added as much talent to the org as any GM in the history of the team - and then traded a lot of it. 

I think if he was still here we might have a better chance at Price, and I trusted his ability to rebuild a pen on the fly - the jury is out for me on Shapiro on that one for no reason other than I haven't followed the Clevelands that closely till he got hired. 

So Kasi, clearly you didn't like AA's approach - what would you have done, or how would you address the roster as currently constructed?  is there such a thing as a good long-term contract for a veteran star in your opinion? 

We'll start with an ongoing salary of about $121.2 Million. Let's say you get Price for $30.0 MM over 7 ($151.2 MM); Zimmerman for $23.5 over 6 ($174.7 MM) and Davis for $20.00 over 7 ($194.7 MM). Add any odds and ends needed ($200.0 MM) and you might pay a little Luxury Tax. One thing you are sure of, POSTSEASON BABY!!!, next 3 years, maybe more.

Bautista ($14.0), Encarnacion ($10.0), Smoak ($2.0), Saunders ($2.9), Dickey ($12.0) and Cecil ($3.4) are Free Agents and clear about $45.0 Million from Payroll getting it down to $155.0 - $160.0 MM. What you spend is relative. This year you need to be in the Playoffs.

The TV money the Jays are worth should be in the $100 mil ballpark given US TV deals and the fact the Jays viewership tripled and is far higher than any US team gets, even before the boost. Unless Canadian advertisers don't pay per viewer anywhere near what US advertisers do, which is doubtful given how many are the same companies, the Jays earn a ton of money for Rogers. I see no reason the Jays couldn't have a $150+ payroll.

FYI: According to an inflation calculator a $50 mil payroll in 1993 (when the Jays won the WS with the biggest payroll in MLB and claim to have barely broke even) would be $80 mil in 2013 dollars. Since the Jays team value has gone up by a factor of 10 since Rogers bought the team in 2000 according to some experts, and worst case is climbing from $112 mil to at least $870 mil or even to $1.5 billion depending on whose estimate you use. I think it is reasonable to figure the Jays can easily afford a $150+ payroll now.

I think the Jays are fine for 2016 jerjapan. Our hitters should still be worth their salaries and we still get the bonus cheap deals of EE and Jose. After that I'm much more bullish, because Martins full contract kicks in, Tulo and JD are another year older and we might be saying bye to Jose/EE. I just don't see how we fill all the holes we have in 2017. But next year provided we pick up another FA starting pitcher (I'm hoping for someone like Leake) I think we'll be favorites for the east.

As for trades, you can't leave 2013 aside. They're the reason this team is where it is. The 2013 trades made the 2015 trades a necessity if AA wanted a title shot while Jose and EE were in peak form.

As for acquiring young talent to deal for established talent, there is a difference in getting a cost controllable guy like JD versus what he did for Tulo, Miami and NY. You know what another team that used to trade lots of their prospects for expensive vets? The Yankees, but unlike them we don't have an owner willing to spend 200 million dollars. And even Cashman doesn't do it anymore.

Also don't blame Shapiro for this, blame LaCava. Shapiro has stated he's not going to baseball winter meetings and is not making trades/deals. That's the GMs job, so I would guess LaCava and staff have been doing things and Shapiro giving them the thumbs up.

As for AA and his approach, there is nothing super wrong about it. Just its not feasible signing five players to a total of 100 million dollars when you only have 145 to play with. The most valuable contracts in baseball are those for young players that take them 2-4 years past arb. Most players decline after 28 and certainly by 30 most are in decline.

As for your question on Vets, I think there is room on the team for a certain amount of post thirty players. Some budget guys/clubhouse leaders but some aging stars too. I'd say no more than 70-75 million on those types of players. So with us that's Martin for 20, Tulo for 20 and maybe a couple others. (seems very likely they'll never extend JD) So in that case I'm fine with a top pitcher for another 20-25.

The kind of contracts I do like are the ones where they get some goodwill from a young player before arb and sign him for 3-4 years past. They don't always work out like Romero, but EE and Jose since they were such late bloomers is a good example. They gave guys who they trusted to continue doing well good money and got tons of surplus value. You're never going to get surplus value on a contract like Price is going to get.

So yeah 50/50 +/- 5 percent or so for players post thirty versus pre. Basically want enough money to be able to sign young guys to good long term deals before they get really expensive.

Thinking on it it's not really a percentage. Basically every team needs about 70-80 million to have a team and sign some of their young players to decent deals. Any amount over that can go to stars over thirty. That's why the Rays and Pirates have to be very careful what they spend on older guys and rarely do so. So I'd say we have about 70 million we can spend on 30 year old FA types. Which is kinda what we already have, so no Price.

Kasi, I think we generally agree more than we disagree on how to develop a franchise that can compete year after year. 

But I do wonder what you think about the sense that prospects might actually be overvalued?  Christina Karl has often commented on this trend, and it's a growing belief in certain circles:

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/baseball-prospects-bust-success-rate-trade-value/

http://grantland.com/features/the-mlb-prospect-bubble/

AA demonstrated - with Wells, with Reyes - that massive contracts can be moved - heck, even the Miaimi blockbuster demonstrated this from the other side. 

Isn't it possible that the idea that you need to develop from within is actually a market inefficiency that can be exploited by the right people?  And not just an inefficiency that can be exploited by NY, Boston and LA?     

The Miami/New York trades were made because Beeston vetoed a 6-year contract signing A.A. had made with Anibal Sanchez. That signing goes through and A.A. does neither trade. He wanted two Top Starters and another Big Bat to go with Jose and Edwin. With one Top Starter already acquired, chances were good he gets who he wants. Not everyone will think he's going for it then. Someone will see it as it was. A.A wanted to see if they were good enough or he would make changes.

What actually happened tied his hands for the next two years. If Beeston doesn't say anything, the Jays are a totally different team.

That's a load of nonsense, Kasi, entirely based on your false premise that we lack good cheap talent - which i have pretty clearly shown you is false....even in comparison to the teams you worship for their stockpile of young talent.

Shapiro inherited the best lineup in baseball, one of the best young SP in baseball, and a number of other very good young (but yes unproven like young players are) pitching talents, with $30-50m to bolster the pitching, and zero bad contracts to worry about.

None of your arguments change how amazing a situation he walked into.

it's actually really damn funny that you complain about our lack of young pitching, when Stroman-Osuna-Sanchez-Hutch-Greene quit literally, without any exaggeration, matches any group of U25 mlb/highmilb pitchers in all baseball.

Uglyone, your arguments are living up to your name...what happened to you? Since AA left you've been putting yourself into a corner with your statements of certainty and proclamations that others are false, often based on your inciting comments on baseless speculation (see your jabs at Shapiro).

Are you secretly AA, upset at being passed over for the Presidency? I don't get the complete 180 from you.

UO I can hardly take anything you say about prospects or our players seriously when you extrapolate relievers war to starters war by normalizing innings, which you did earlier in this thread. You cherry pick stats that fits your narrative. What most see here with Sanchez is a guy with no out pitch and extreme platoon issues, aka not a starter. Hutchison might regain 14 form and that's why I think he's the big wild card. But if he repeats last year he's useless. Greene is far away. Osuna doesn't even want to start and if he does will be innings restricted.

And I can go read Sickels or half a dozen talented evaluators out there to know that we're in a pretty poor state compared to most right now. For every Greene or Alford we have the top farm systems have two of them. But I'm sure you can construct a careful list of 5 prospects in each of the systems to make us look good while missing out the greater depth of farm Boston, the Cubs and others have. People already posted the facts earlier in this thread. We're underperforming on young players in the majors and it's pretty clear we are not getting any internal pitching help this coming year.

As for those articles honestly never been a fan of hers and those articles linked are old. Sure prospects bust. Then again ask the Mets or Orioles how they felt in losing Dickey and Bedard. The only real way to generate surplus value is to get the player locked to a reasonable rate during prime years. You're never going to be able to afford a team of aging thirty year old stars. You just don't have the payroll depth to afford that many players in decline.

To elaborate a bit more Jer I think you can break prospects into two groups. Blue-chippers that will almost certainly perform in the majors and lotto picks. There is very few of the first and they mostly come in the first round, usually top five picks. As for the second it's a numbers game. Some will develop, some won't. If you have less than you won't get that locked up young talent you want. If you're trading away then you better be sure you trade the right guys. But oops if you trade Syndergarrd since you really wanted to keep Sanchez.

And btw that's hardly a new methodology. It was what the Yankees did in the early part of last decade and it didn't work. The best players on those teams they developed and the trades and big FA acquisitions rarely worked out.

"UO I can hardly take anything you say about prospects or our players seriously when you extrapolate relievers war to starters war by normalizing innings, which you did earlier in this thread. You cherry pick stats that fits your narrative."

I mean, this is approaching crazyland stuff here. I have presented the stats in a number of different ways to show you what our kids have done, and they all say the same thing. that is the opposite of cherry picking.


"What most see here with Sanchez is a guy with no out pitch and extreme platoon issues, aka not a starter. Hutchison might regain 14 form and that's why I think he's the big wild card. But if he repeats last year he's useless. Greene is far away. Osuna doesn't even want to start and if he does will be innings restricted."

And then you completely ignore actual performance and scouting reports and present this kind of blatant negative spin summary as fact.

"And I can go read Sickels or half a dozen talented evaluators out there to know that we're in a pretty poor state compared to most right now. For every Greene or Alford we have the top farm systems have two of them. But I'm sure you can construct a careful list of 5 prospects in each of the systems to make us look good while missing out the greater depth of farm Boston, the Cubs and others have. "

You claimed that they had more mlb ready prospects than we did. I showed you who their closest prospects are and how thry compare tonour closest prospects. Instead of listening, now you've moved away from your mlb-ready argument into a depth argument.


"People already posted the facts earlier in this thread. We're underperforming on young players in the majors and it's pretty clear we are not getting any internal pitching help this coming this year."

the facts have been posted, and we are clearly overperforming on young players in the majors. as shown, our young players have performed comparably to the best young groups in mlb.

and again, Stroman Osuna Hutch Sanchez and Greene is as good a group of young pitching as any team has.

You did in fact extrapolate Osuna to 4.7 war per 200 by normalizing his innings, as well as assumed Travis would hold up 6.2 WAR over 600 by extrapolating his 200 to that. Nothing crazy about that since you did in fact post that. If you want to be the prospect guy here that's cool, but don't post stuff like that. Just undermines your credibility.

Your steamer projection showed Sanchez as 0.2 WAR, so I hardly think I'm alone in thinking he has limited value as a starter. 15 Hutchison is not a playable starter do you agree on that? If we get 14 Hutch back that's one thing, but we thought Romero would bounce back too.

As for the last come on. The Mets easily have far better young pitchers than we do. In that list you have two stand out guys (one of who is a reliever), two big question marks and a promising prospect. You can find dozens of teams like that in the majors. There is nothing special about it in comparison to even teams like the Rays, although Archer who I like better than our guys is a bit older than it I thought he was.

Guess it depends on your classification of young, but there's quite a number of teams I'd take the top 5 young pitchers ahead of the Jays group. Counting on 2 RP and Hutch as 3 of the top 4 is...risky.

Uglyone: "I find it interesting that you dismiss one for high ERA (but good FIP), and then dismiss the other for high FIP (but tood ERA). The truth is what I said it is - these are three good young SP talents who could compete for a spot on any rotation in baseball".

Hutchison's FIP was near 4.50. He really tailed off in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a bounceback candidate as his K/BB rates were still good and he had a very high BABIP, but I'm just saying he's coming off a down season overall so you can't count on him for 2016 without some caveats.

As far as Osuna, I think the IP situation might prevent him from being a starter in the eyes of the organization. Like I said, he has a career high 78 IP counting the playoffs last season and it was all in the bullpen where he was relying mostly on his fastball. He not only needs innings but also needs to refine his secondary stuff. If he's not a SP in AAA next season, then I'm willing to bet he's in the big league pen again. Maybe that's where his mechanics are best suited as far as staying healthy. I don't know. But even if not, it's hard to call him an SP at this point. He practically needs two years of stretching out before he's even a 180 IP candidate.


Uglyone: "calling norris and hoffman depth (never mind jenkins or boyd), right after you completely dismissed sanchez and osuna, is just funny. and of course we just traded away a reliver who was as good SP depth as the names you are lamenting."

No, I was just stating a fact. Those three (Norris, Hoffman, and Boyd) would have been the AAA rotation in 2016 if they weren't traded, and Jenkins is usually in Buffalo in multiple roles which won't be an option anymore. Instead, the AAA rotation is Scott Diamond and four question marks. Hence, there's no depth. I said nothing of their upside or talent, although I'd take Norris and Hoffman over Sanchez any day.


Uglyone: "Shapiro inherited one of the best rosters in baseball, and $100m in payroll committments, none of that $100m for poor value, for a team that has run $130m payrolls and who likely have more available than that. That is specific, accurate fact."

I'm not denying he inherited talent. He absolutely did. The offense should be elite again if everyone stays healthy and the 2016 team certainly has a shot to win. The issue is, he inherited 3 starters (after exercising Dickey's option) and no AAA rotation. He inherited an older group of position players with very little in the way of depth outside of Pompey. He inherited a payroll that will either stay the same or get lower depending on which source is speaking on it, despite arbitration raises and backloaded deals. I just don't see the fool proof roster and money to burn that you do.

If he inherited this team but had a $160M payroll, then I'd agree with you that he had enough resources to keep it going for a little longer. If it's $130-140M, then it's really not that much in today's market.

I think the more pressing point some have here is that: what happens after 2016? If Shapiro inherited a one year window, which is what this appears to be, then how is that a benefit to him? If anything, it's forcing him to make moves entirely to maximize their place on the 2016 win curve, rather than making moves that might be better long-term fits (like Hendriks for Chavez, for example, and to a lesser extent Estrada). I don't think anything we're seeing this off-season or going to see is reflective of Shapiro's long-term vision. Every win he adds in 2016 comes with a greater value than wins added in 2017-beyond, so that's the focus. It might seem to fans that it's a great situation to inherit, but a one year window and then a whole bunch of uncertainty won't look all that appealing after 2016 is over.

Not sure that I agree with a base of Stroman/Tulo/Donaldson/Martin that it's "not that appealing" after 2016, but certainly there is some uncertainty there.

Rogers is spending about $500 million per year for Hockey Night in Canada.  You'd have to work really hard to persuade me that Blue Jay broadcasts are worth 1/50 of that.

It's obviously not only the advertising revenue that is at stake.  Rogers and TSN are in an important (to them) branding battle for sports broadcasting leadership.  Last year, RSN surpassed TSN not because of hockey but because of baseball.  If that's worth only $10 million to them, how is HNIC worth $500 million?

"You did in fact extrapolate Osuna to 4.7 war per 200 by normalizing his innings, as well as assumed Travis would hold up 6.2 WAR over 600 by extrapolating his 200 to that. Nothing crazy about that since you did in fact post that. If you want to be the prospect guy here that's cool, but don't post stuff like that. Just undermines your credibility.|"

if we're talking about credibility, we should be looking at you looking at WAR totals with no consideration for playing time. I don't care about being a prospect guy, I just like informed discussions.

"Your steamer projection showed Sanchez as 0.2 WAR, so I hardly think I'm alone in thinking he has limited value as a starter. 15 Hutchison is not a playable starter do you agree on that? If we get 14 Hutch back that's one thing, but we thought Romero would bounce back too."

This is the kind of hopping around that bugs me. Steamer says hutch is a starter next year and Sanchez is not. In 2015 Sanchez was a solid starter (6.0ip/gs, era under 4) and Hutch was not. I refuse to look just at the bad side for each one, like you do.

"As for the last come on. The Mets easily have far better young pitchers than we do. In that list you have two stand out guys (one of who is a reliever), two big question marks and a promising prospect. You can find dozens of teams like that in the majors."

This is where details matter. If Degrom (28 in 2016) and Harvey (27) or even Wheeler (26) were Jays, you wouldn't be calling them young SP at all, but instead calling them soon-to-be-expensive vets. Not to mention Wheeler is missing at least half of his 26yr old season next year anyways.

The actual young pitching they have is Syndergaard (23) and Matz (25). Their next arm in the system is 20yr old Molina who just finished his A+ season with TJ surgery in october. I guess you could include 25yr old Montero who has been bad in MLB, medicore in AAA, and missed the 2nd half of the year with rotator cuff issues.

Same with the Rays. Archer will be 28 in 2016, Cobb 28, Smyly 27, Odorizzi 26.

If these guys were Jays, you would be fretting about their impending salary inflation, and dismissing a number of them completely based on injuries.

"I think the more pressing point some have here is that: what happens after 2016? If Shapiro inherited a one year window, which is what this appears to be, then how is that a benefit to him? If anything, it's forcing him to make moves entirely to maximize their place on the 2016 win curve, rather than making moves that might be better long-term fits (like Hendriks for Chavez, for example, and to a lesser extent Estrada). I don't think anything we're seeing this off-season or going to see is reflective of Shapiro's long-term vision. Every win he adds in 2016 comes with a greater value than wins added in 2017-beyond, so that's the focus. It might seem to fans that it's a great situation to inherit, but a one year window and then a whole bunch of uncertainty won't look all that appealing after 2016 is over."

two players facing free agency does not make it a one year window.

and saying that moves have to either fit a one year window or a longterm view is a false dichotomy. Signing a top free agent is a move made to help for a good 5 years at least.

Shapiro has inherited a wealth of talent, prime and younger, very little of it in its serious decline years, and all of it on good value contracts - with plenty of payroll room to work with, as he's shown with his moves already this offseason. It's a dream scenario, really.

You can not turn a relievers innings into starters innings and assume the WAR scales. It's just not valid math. Osuna is not a 4.7 WAR player no matter how you spin things.

As for ages, pre thirty players tend to have higher performance and are cheaper than post thirty players. But your strategy always seems to be to go all in on old people. I do not think that's a good strategy and it seems most successful teams in baseball agree with that.

25 is a pretty dumb cutoff anyway, what I really care about is players pre FA and cost controlled. No point penalizing a college pitcher to someone like Osuna when there is an effective four year difference on when they came into the league. Those Mets pitchers over 25 have multiple arbitration years left while Osuna at the same age would already be in FA. Carrasco is a top pitcher in baseball and under an extremely good contract, but he's 28 since he basically didn't break into the majors til 2-3 years ago.

Two extreme value players who have been the core of our hitting, along with the aging and decline of players like Martin, Tulo, Estrada and even Donaldson makes it a short window. That lineup looks a lot less scary if it's Pompey, Travis, Donaldson, Tulo, Colabello, Martin does it not? It's not a bad lineup for sure, but it won't be best in league. Especially since Tulo and Martin could decline fast.

The real issue like many have said here is starting pitching. Greene is likely the closest prospect and counting on him before mid 17 seems unlikely. Dickey will be gone and the innings he eat, who knows if Estrada can keep things up. Free agent pitchers don't want to sign here and the Jays aren't willing to overbid or go over their payroll limits so we're stuck with mid level pitchers plus Stroman. That puts a lot of pressure on Osuna and Hutchison to see if they can be effective starters. Which is why I keep saying Hutch is the biggest wild card in the near future.

"Hutchison's FIP was near 4.50. He really tailed off in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a bounceback candidate as his K/BB rates were still good and he had a very high BABIP, but I'm just saying he's coming off a down season overall so you can't count on him for 2016 without some caveats.

As far as Osuna, I think the IP situation might prevent him from being a starter in the eyes of the organization. Like I said, he has a career high 78 IP counting the playoffs last season and it was all in the bullpen where he was relying mostly on his fastball. He not only needs innings but also needs to refine his secondary stuff. If he's not a SP in AAA next season, then I'm willing to bet he's in the big league pen again. Maybe that's where his mechanics are best suited as far as staying healthy. I don't know. But even if not, it's hard to call him an SP at this point. He practically needs two years of stretching out before he's even a 180 IP candidate."

Yes they all have talent, and all have question marks. This is why all can be in competition for a starting spot, with none of them written in for one.

for the record, Osuna used a solid 3 pitch mix in the pen (70% fastball, 15% change, 15% slider) - though really that was probably more of a 4 pitch mix as it looked to me like he has more than one type of fastball. pitch f/x does see it more as a 65/5 split of FB/FC but I'm not sure that's quite catching the difference yet.

and hutch had a 4.34fip and 4.16xfip as a starter last year.

"No, I was just stating a fact. Those three (Norris, Hoffman, and Boyd) would have been the AAA rotation in 2016 if they weren't traded, and Jenkins is usually in Buffalo in multiple roles which won't be an option anymore. Instead, the AAA rotation is Scott Diamond and four question marks. Hence, there's no depth. I said nothing of their upside or talent, although I'd take Norris and Hoffman over Sanchez any day."

You lamented the loss of Norris, Hoffman and Boyd in the same breath you dismissed Osuna, Sanchez and Hutch as starting depth entirely. It makes no sense.

I hate steamer but it's the easiest to look at to take our biases out of it (and for the record, steamer doesn't to SP/RP splits).

Osuna (21): 3.22era, 3.44fip
Sanchez (23): 4.23era, 4.25fip
Hutch (25): 4.11era, 4.30fip

Norris (23): 4.26era, 4.47fip
Boyd (25): 4.27era, 4.60fip
Hoffman (23): 4.60era, 4.75fip


As an SP, last 2yrs:

Sanchez (23): 11gs, 6.0ip/gs, 87era-, 127fip-, 115xfip-
Norris (23): 13gs, 4.5ip/gs, 95era-, 114fip-, 117xfip-

Hutch (25): 60gs, 5.6ip/gs, 124era-, 103fip-, 102xfip-
Boyd (25): 12gs, 4.7ip/gs, 183era-, 163fip-, 128xfip-

while Hoffman was mediocre in AA at 22 last year compared to Osuna being one of the better relievers in baseball at 20. In fact last year:

AA

Hoffman (22): 48.0ip, 2.81era, 3.42fip
Greene (20): 25.0ip, 4.68era, 4.15fip

A+

Hoffman (22): 56.0ip, 3.21era, 3.70fip
Greene (20): 40.0ip, 2.25era, 2.34fip

"You can not turn a relievers innings into starters innings and assume the WAR scales. It's just not valid math. Osuna is not a 4.7 WAR player no matter how you spin things. "

it's a conundrum, as it's also artificial to limit his war by relief innings.

"As for ages, pre thirty players tend to have higher performance and are cheaper than post thirty players. But your strategy always seems to be to go all in on old people. I do not think that's a good strategy and it seems most successful teams in baseball agree with that."

No, my strategy is to go all in on great players, period. Age is a secondary factor, not a primary one.

"25 is a pretty dumb cutoff anyway, what I really care about is players pre FA and cost controlled. No point penalizing a college pitcher to someone like Osuna when there is an effective four year difference on when they came into the league. Those Mets pitchers over 25 have multiple arbitration years left while Osuna at the same age would already be in FA. Carrasco is a top pitcher in baseball and under an extremely good contract, but he's 28 since he basically didn't break into the majors til 2-3 years ago."

Again you straddle the fence - Donaldson has 3yrs of control left, yet you do nothing but paint his situation as problematic for the Jays going forward. You don't mention the likes of Pillar or Cecil, also controllable.

but for other teams, now it's all that's important.

Players over thirty, even great players decline and sometimes decline fast. Spending 20+ million on them is very risky. The best years of elite players performance generally ends at 29-30. If you wait for FA then you're basically paying for their decline. What you want to do is sign them to deals that end at 30-32, not begin there.

Donaldson is fine going forward but he's going to be 12 million next year and probably 20 the year after. Still obviously worth his money, but just saying they're never going to sign him long term because it's past the point where they could get him to accept an EE/Jose type deal. If you offered him 5/70 like Jose got his agent would likely not even dignify it with an answer. 6/150 is probably the starting point for him.

Ja Happ 3/36 to the Blue Jays, time to sign a big guy and than trade Dickey

That deal really came outta nowhere.

Ugh Happ. He was so Painful to watch.

But not as as bad as the arguments on this site. You guys need to move on. I used to come here to read new insightful opinions. All ive read for the past month is the same old crap. We know some of you supported aa and his moves and some didn't. Neither one of you can convince the other. Time to move on.

Ugh Happ. He was so Painful to watch. But not as as bad as the arguments on this site. You guys need to move on. I used to come here to read new insightful opinions. All ive read for the past month is the same old crap. We know some of you supported aa and his moves and some didn't. Neither one of you can convince the other. Time to move on.

Deciding to augment the current lineup with Chavez, Happ and other spare parts instead of another #1 to pair with Stroman has absolutely nothing to do with AA.

rfan8, come on!  I assume you are talking about a number of our regular posters who offer thought and insight daily.  If you don't like the direction a thread takes, get into it an change the course of things.  You've offered as much content in the past 6 months as the posters you are criticizing have offered in this thread alone.  nobody is here to entertain you.  get into the conversation or don't, but until you do, I don't think you should be critical of those who spend their time and energy making the Box great.