(Transferred from the other thread:)

At his press conference, Shapiro is saying all the right things:  Gibbons and the rest of the coaches will return;  no dogmatic 5-year limits on contracts; the July deadline deals were good; the farm system is still good but requires further enriching.  He can talk the talk, although we'll have to see if he can walk the walk.

It's clear, however, that AA was correct in his fears of losing autonomy under Shapiro.  Shapiro has just stated that the GM's job is merely to make "recommendations" to the president.  That would represent a major loss of autonomy for Anthopoulos, compared to his situation under Beeston.   I don't think there can be any further mystery about why AA is gone.  His job had changed radically:  he would be merely a submitter of "recommendations" to Shapiro.

From a tweet by Arden Zwelling:

Shapiro: General managers don't make moves, they make recommendations. If GM's process is good, my job to approve the decision is easy.

And from a tweet by Brendan Kennedy:

Shapiro says he hasn't reached out to David Price or any players yet, but plans to "pick up some options" in next few days. (Bautista, EE).

(My comment:  Shapiro is making it very clear that he'll be fully in charge of the kinds of decisions that Anthopoulos previously made.  It is Shapiro, not the GM, who is now in charge of contacting David Price and "picking up options" on Bautista and Encarnacion.  Under the previous system, it was Anthopoulos rather than Beeston who made those kinds of phone calls and decisions.)

LaCava seems like a short-term option (interim in every sense of the word) based on the Tweets I've read, which isn't surprising. It would be next to impossible to alter course after the 2015 season, so keeping AA's staff around for 2016 makes a lot of sense. It's post-2016 that the creativity and retooling will need to begin (post-Bautista/Encarnacion), and by that point, maybe Shapiro will have another GM candidate/manager in mind to starting shaping his true vision.

It still wouldn't surprise me if he makes a surprising move, but playing it safe for 2016 is probably the best way to go, both for public perception and short-term competitiveness. It's what he does after 2016 that will set the long-term direction.

I don't believe that 2017 will be post Bautista, EE. If not signed beyond 2016 this off season, one or both will be gone before the start of 2016 season.

It's clear, however, that AA was correct in his fears of losing autonomy under Shapiro. Shapiro has just stated that the GM's job is merely to make "recommendations" to the president. That would represent a major loss of autonomy for Anthopoulos, compared to his situation under Beeston. I don't think there can be any further mystery about why AA is gone. His job had changed radically: he would be merely a submitter of "recommendations" to Shapiro.

My read too, which basically means Ed Rogers was speaking out of both ends of his mouth and is exactly as slimy as pegged.

I recognize there are only 30 of these jobs but completely understand AA's decision to not trust the ownership that had completely ignored him until the very end and mishandled his boss and mentor's exit from the company, especially in the context of the resume he has built and the opportunities he'll have elsewhere as a result.

Rogers should be ashamed of how this all played out.

As I read the Star's article, it's quite clear to me at least:

1. Shapiro will be making the baseball decisions from now on; and
2. Shapiro likely was critical of the July trades.

I'm so going to be first one to say, "AA would have made that trade" at the first steal of the season.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/11/02/new-jays-chief-mark-shapiro-to-face-media-with-anthopoulos-looming-in-background.html

"I don't believe that 2017 will be post Bautista, EE. If not signed beyond 2016 this off season, one or both will be gone before the start of 2016 season."

where are you getting this stuff man?  they have no trade clauses!  I get trading one guy this offseason, I do - we have alternatives for of / 1b / dh, payroll issues and holes to fill.  but could you possibly outline a scenario in which your prediction makes sense for the actual people making decisions?   i. e. Shapiro, LaCava and Bautista / EE? 

good enough hire.

job title inflation means that Shapiro is what we used to call GM, anyways.

My takeaways from the press conference beyond the main, widely-reported deets:

• Shapiro several times made comments confirming that he was the man, and that AA would have reported to him:   "I will lean heavily on him" in reference to LaCava,  Going from memory so I'm paraphrasing, but "if the process is in place, of course I would approve any move the GM wants to make" he talked about how he ran the Indians and then corrected himself to 'helped run', and he referred to the leader of an organization as a he, and then corrected to an 'or she' - again giving me the sense that he views himself as the leader
• When talking about payroll, he emphasized how much money he has to spend on scouting, strength and conditioning, etc ... the payrolls not going up
  
• "I'm not sure why" there would be questions about Gibbons future - well, clearly Shapiro is as good at praising ownership and avoiding addressing fan concerns directly as AA (fair enough, IMO)
• Asked by Wilner if he had an understanding of or connections to Canada, it sounds like he doesn't really, but likes the thought of raising his family in Toronto, and representing a team that has national appeal
  

I still agree with Bruce Arthur, Rogers really bungled this process and a small payroll hike would have helped address the fan concerns.  Listening to the radio this past week, the average fan is way, way more concerned about a change in GM than I'm used to in any sport in TO, and I'm right on board with them on suspicions around Rogers.

Despite rumors that Shapiro had "scolded" AA for the July trades, Shapiro said the opposite in the press conference.  He hinted at the "long-term challenges" (i.e. the loss of the prospects) but he still praised the trades as "great trades."  Here are some tweets summarizing what Shapiro said about the July trades:

Shapiro: #BlueJays' deadline moves had "tremendous" short-term benefits as well as long-term "challenges." Says they were "great trades"

Shapiro: In light of the situation and circumstances those (deadline moves) were great trades, to be commended.

"In light of situation & circumstances, those were great trades," Shapiro says of AA's deadline moves. But also long-term "challenges."

My own footnote again:  in his private conversations with AA, it's possible that Shapiro was more explicit about those "long-term challenges" and this helped to convince AA that he would face greater resistance in making big trades in the future.  I suppose it's not surprising that Shapiro would adopt a different tone in public than he did in his private conversations with AA.  The press conference was primarily spin, and Shapiro didn't want to be candid about his differences with AA, but I can understand AA being worried about future friction with the strong personality of Mark Shapiro.

I had the impression that Shapiro would be overseeing the stadium improvements, dealing with the league and so on, and would be more involved with the nitty-gritty of that work than with everyday player personnel decisions (as opposed to large transactions).  If that view of his role turns out to be right, "title inflation" isn't the best characterization to my mind.  There is a rejigging of roles which does mean that a GM has less autonomy, but it doesn't mean the President's role is "inflated".  If anything, it is more comprehensive than what Beeston did. 

They do not have no trade clauses. As 10 and 5 players, they need to give permission to a trade which is usually not that difficult to get unless sending to a losing team.

Obviously, you are not aware of Shapiro's history. He does NOT tolerate pending FA's. They either extend or are traded.

So, it seems obvious that the players in question either sign new contracts this off season or they will be traded and not allowed to walk as FA's after 2016.

"I had the impression that Shapiro would be overseeing the stadium improvements, dealing with the league and so on, and would be more involved with the nitty-gritty of that work than with everyday player personnel decisions"

I had that hope as well, but imo that now seems like just an attempt to avoid insulting AA at the time.

Shapiro does not seem to me to be an absolutist.  In the case of Sabathia, he waited until July of his walk year to trade him.  At the time of the trade, the Indians were 37-51 and 13.5 games out of first place.  I'd guess that if the Indians were in the middle of a pennant race in 2008, Sabathia would have been an Indian until he hit free agency.

sorry, 10 and 5.  of course, there are exactly the same in reality.

Obviously PeterG, you are not aware of Shapiro's history running a completely different franchise with a completely different payroll and a completely different competitive window.  my tongue is in cheek here, but again, I await your evidence. 

Bautista and EE have given no indication that they don't want to be here, so frankly.  what scenario do you see that would allow LaCava and Shapiro to convince one of these guys to waive their rights, especially when every single signal that came from the presser suggests admin want to at least appear to maintain the status quo to appease the fan base? 

Grrr.  "They are".

That has been Shapiro's history, save the instance mentioned by Mike on Sabathia.

Putting evidence aside, it is only common sense to extend these players or move them. If they want to stay as bad as you suggest, they will agree to new contracts. Frankly J, I think that your argument makes no sense whatsoever. Just my opinion.

We don't need to debate Shapiro's history on contracts, since there's also a long history of the Jays preferring to rewrite long-term contracts for their top players, at least a year before they expire, rather than letting the player go into his final year in limbo.  (Unless they're willing to let the player depart.) 

There are plenty of reasons that they might not want to extend right now, and also might not want to be traded. But only time will tell.

generally, a player will accept a trade in the off season unless to a totally undesirable place. It is in season trades, that are much more likely to be refused. Although he would not say it, Shapiro probably resents being put in this situation. I said last year, as did others, that not attending to this before becoming 10 and 5 guys, was possibly AA's greatest mistake as a GM.

PeterG, not sure if this is appropriate or not for a public forum, but I'll bet ya! 

For whatever reason (maybe a Box vet could explain this) cuttlefish seem to be the common currency around here.  I personally prefer something along the lines of what Mylegacy enjoys.  But whatever form it is, I'll bet you that barring catastrophe (say the Jays are under .500 or ten games out at the Aug. trade deadline) EE and Bautista are both here. 

only if they are signed beyond 2016

I don't think it's likely that Tulo is traded, nor do I think it's a good idea, but I can at least understand the thought process. Trading one of Bautista or Encarnacion this off season would be a PR disaster, and completely tone deaf to what's happened in Toronto the last two months.

so it seems the guys we have locked up for many years are a problem. and the guys we don't have locked up are also a problem. and oh yeah - arby guys are a problem, too.

everyone on this amazing and affordable roster is apparently a problem contract.

what is the downside of Joey and EE's current contract status, exactly?

When talking about payroll, he emphasized how much money he has to spend on scouting, strength and conditioning, etc ...

Are they going to spend more on strength and conditioning?

Bats and EE are not going anywhere on a contract year unless they are offered serious money. They love hitting here. Besides, I think the Bautista bubble-head-flippy-bat is already ordered.

Declining offensive players who can play few positions and who will command high salaries. They are needed next year and you still have 2 picks from the QOs. Makes not sense in my book.

1. Shapiro will be making the baseball decisions from now on; and
2. Shapiro likely was critical of the July trades.

I strongly agree with these statements from the press conference. Good observations.  In fact, the most telling answers were when Shapiro  was questioned in interviews later about specifics eg picking up player options or free agents, and he talked solely about them in the first person - what I will do (not what the GM will do). Three more observations - LaCava is unlikely to be the permanent GM (Shapiro wouldn't commit to him even being a candidate), rebulding the farm system is a big priority, and Shapiro's passion seems to be structure and process. These are worrisome. For example,  LaCava talked about AA's creativity, a word that has never been used to describe Shapiro or his structure.  Also, when comparing the upper levels of the two farm systems, Toronto AFTER the trades still had  the same number in Baseball America's mid-season top 50 prospects as Cleveland did - one each (Pompey #29 compared to Zimmer #23).

Often players are distracted/unhappy when they play their contract year.
With the history of those two, why would they want to be anywhere else next year?

I mentioned in the other thread that extending players the ages Bautista (35) and EE are (32) is a poor idea. Both are likely to decline sharply soon, if not next year then within the next few. The smart move is to offer them qualifying offers next winter and see if they take it, going year to year is OK and might be more expensive long term and is more risky but also avoids virtually all risk while providing a draft pick if they walk and allows the team to honestly say they put some effort into keeping them but just didn't feel comfortable offering 5 years or whatever they'd get elsewhere.

I'm more curious if they'll try to sign Donaldson long term. Bad timing off an MVP year but done right you might get a 5 year thus get 2 years of free agency bought out and after 5 years from now odds are Donaldson will be into his decline phase and the Jays will be ready to say goodbye.

"Toronto AFTER the trades still had the same number in Baseball America's mid-season top 50 prospects as Cleveland did - one each (Pompey #29 compared to Zimmer #23)."

and let's be honest, Alford should be top 50 and Osuna would be if he wasn't busy being the youngest player in mlb.

"I mentioned in the other thread that extending players the ages Bautista (35) and EE are (32) is a poor idea."

as with everything, that depends on the price. you could argue they present a great bargain opportunity, especially given their atypical career arcs so far.

Probably. A QO wouldn't be enough compensation for losing Donaldson and trading him after only 2 years would be pretty sad.

I'm with you Ugly ... this roster is in great shape, and Shapiro can take this team in whatever direction he wants - there is a wave of young talent a few years away, and a bunch of payroll flexibility on the horizon.  I think he's smarter than some people around here seem to think.  My guess is that he does what Raps GM Masai Ujiri did after inheriting a surprisingly successful team - assess the landscape - young talent, vets, management - and use 2016 to put his stamp on the org.

I still wish it was AA in that role, but if Shapiro comes in with a patient, wait and see approach, I can live with that. 

My take:

-Shapiro is the GM regardless of titles
- LaCava will not get the permanent GM job(junior GM really),it will likely be a Cleveland guy (Ross Atkins?)
-there is going to be little/no payroll bump.
-Bet the house that Price is gone.
-there will be trades to get younger talent - if I had to guess, JB & EE will be moved - I know they are 10&5 guys but I'm confident if the acquiring team are extending them (as with Halladay), JB & EE will say yes - they want to get paid & it's contending teams that will bid for them.
- Smart move by Shapiro to keep Gibbons - firing him is a chip he can use if things go south next season.
-Shapiro is very good at giving non-answer to questions.

This reply is to a comment in a previous thread, but of course the Donaldson trade was a slam dunk for us, and there is no need to discuss losing him at the moment.  He's arb eligible for three more years, and he's about as valuable an asset as you can have in MLB right now, outside of Trout and Harper. 

To John's question, I'd be happy to invest in him long term, and Shapiro has shown a preference for locking up arb-eligible talent before, but frankly, I'm thinking Donaldson's unlikely to want to commit long term.  It's all about risk management to use the Shapiro-speak, and there's pretty limited risk to Josh at this point in going year to year - he's healthy, likely to command a lot in arbitration, and coming off a probable MVP season. 

Anthopoulos:  "Hey, Mark, I have a recommendation.  I think we should trade Adam Lind for a pitcher named Marco Estrada."

Shapiro:  "Hmmm, Alex, that's an interesting recommendation.  Can you explain your process?"

Anthopoulos:  "Process?  Well, my process involved a lot of scouting and analysis and evaluation.... Stuff like that...."

Shapiro:  "Alex, you're being rather vague about your process.  I think you need to give me a detailed summary of all the factors that were involved in your process.  Please provide enough evidence to convince me that this process is a good one.   Then I'll consider your recommendation."

Anthopoulos: "Ummm....  But I don't really have time to prepare a detailed recommendation on Estrada, because I'm just in the middle of negotiating a trade with the Tigers.  I recommend that we trade Anthony Gose for a minor-league prospect named Devon Travis.  But we have to do the deal quickly or it will fall apart."

Shapiro:  "Well, Alex, that's another very interesting recommendation, but I can't possibly approve the Gose trade either, until I have all the details of your process.  I have to make sure that your process is satisfactory."

Anthopoulos:  hangs up phone, goes home, takes his kids to Chuck E. Cheese and contemplates his future.

A slow clap for China Fan.

my basic strategy would be to invest in this core until the Tulo/Martin contracts expire.

so that means I agree with a 5-6yr extension for Donaldson, and 3-4yr extensions for EE and Joey (in my mind i always had identical 3yr + option deals for the two of them).

this is why i'd also love to sign Price at market value, even knowing the last few years would likely be a writeoff -at that point, this core would be done and contracts expired.


2019

Bautista 38
Martin 36
Encarnacion 36
Tulowitzki 34
Donaldson 33
Price 33

And in 2020 we'd ideally only have Price at a high salary, Tulo at a reduced salary ($14m), and the rest either FA or with options. That would be 4 more years of contention with age only becoming a real serious issue near the end. And at that point it would clearly be time not to invest in that same core again - even though all of them would still have a decent shot at being pretty damn good players even at that point.

while they all represent risks heading into their mid 30s, only Bautista would be signed into his late 30s (i.e. the super risky years), and i have a whole lotta faith in Joey's physcal fitness, mental acquity, and work ethic giving him a chance to be an Ortiz type ager.

Shapiro has a job to do, not the way Beeston organized the corporate business of Rogers, as President he wants to feel comfortable in the GM who recommends the deal for his approval. As time goes on , there is more latitude between President and GM.

Also, Shapiro may keep LaCava as he does his job or may not, LaCava's contract is only for one year. The clock is ticking and LaCava has to produce so he will continue to be in demand, as the contract expires.

Finally, Jays, entire aspects of the organization will be re-evaluated, LaCava ran the draft, GM picks the first pick, twice in the last four years they were not signed. Tinnish will have the impact going forward. Shapiro wants to expand the scouting that is a good thing, however the amount of monies will not be substantial if the Jays continue to win.

Shapiro , has removed the restrictive 5 year clause, which is a good change.
Shapiro, will re-up some of the option years. He wont discuss payroll, due to agents squeezing him for funds that he may want to use elsewhere . Smart Business move , may not satisfy the fan community, but in the long run people will review his vision and comment accordingly.

This whole process thing that China Fan aptly described doesn't seem like the most agile approach for an organization that needs to make quick and effective decisions in many cases. Kind of sounds like the front office turning into a government bureaucracy.

CF: funny but I doubt it would be that way. Odds are Shapiro would be aware of any trades as they will be going in a casual way, so the GM can close them quickly if needed. I suspect that is how it was under Beeston but only for big deals ala the Miami trade where lots of cash is involved.

"....I suspect that is how it was under Beeston but only for big deals ala the Miami trade where lots of cash is involved...."

It was Anthopoulos himself who raised the example of the Gose deal  (in his off-the-record conversation with Cathal Kelly).  He expressed doubt that he'd be able to do a trade of that kind in the future, unless he obtained approval from his boss.  This would be cumbersome, at the least, because you can't keep the CEO informed of every potential deal that you're working on.

More importantly, when you've reached a certain level of success and seniority in any job, it's insulting to be told that now you aren't trusted any more and now you have to get approvals that weren't required before.  I'm sure this happens a lot in some workplaces, but anyone who has achieved success and a level of trust in a senior position would be reluctant to suddenly accept new limits, because it's a step backwards, it's a sign of distrust or disrespect. 

There is utterly no way to do those moves uglyone with a 140 million dollar payroll. Extending Donaldson would take 25 million a year at this point, if not more coming off a MVP season and 2 7 win seasons before that. Martin and Tulo will be 20 each shortly. Price would be 30 million. Lets say Bautista and EE are 16-20 each.

25 + 20 + 20 + 30 + 18 + 18 = 131 million dollars, leaving 9 million dollars for the rest of the team. That kind of commitment is not possible unless the Jays agree to a 180 million dollar payroll. They're not doing it.

Often players are distracted/unhappy when they play their contract year.

Like Marco Estrada.

No way is the budget $140 million in 2019, unless inflation ceases to exist. 

My thought would be to get one of the high end free agent pitchers. Then a second guy on a short 1-2 year deal. Perhaps a reclamation project or flyer like a Santana or Kazmir were a couple years ago. Than if Tulo really doesn't feel comfy here I'd explore trading him to a team with a pitcher who is at AAA level or already in the majors and some other prospects.. (Maybe someone akin to Ross) Then next offseason figure out which one of EE or Jose you want to keep to a three year contract. I'd prefer EE since he's younger and I think could imitate Ortiz well for a couple more years. Also think it would look bad if we lost both those guys.

So at that point at start of 2017 we have expensive pitcher at 30, Donaldson at 20, Martin at 20, EE at 18 and maybe one more year of reclamation guy at 10-12 and Ross like guy in the 8-10 range. That totals 110 million and leaves us some room to do things like perhaps sign Stroman to a deal that goes 2-3 years past his arb years at reasonable rate. Similar things could be explored for Travis, Pillar or Pompey. It also leaves us a bit of room to do mid season trades or sign another cheap FA.

Shapiro is very good at giving non-answer to questions.

And while using a lot fewer words, and speaking much more understandably than Anthopolous; a more efficient skater. Compare today to AA's McCown interview.

Jerjapan: Payrolls are not guaranteed to increase. As people noted with the Indians and the Jays, Shapiro when he started with the Indians had a top ten payroll. It was quickly reduced. Jays used to have the top payroll in baseball. Even speaking in just absolute terms the Yankees payroll last year was lower than it was ten years ago.

Second uglyone's contract commitments kick in in 2017, because that is when EE and Bautista would be resigned. We have been told already that payroll is 140 million next year. Why would it jump so much one year later?

Look I'd love to live in the land where the Jays spend 180-200 million dollars on the team. There are arguments that the Jays should certainly be able to afford it given their TV revenues and market. However there has been no sign that the Jays are willing to increase the budget so we have to live with certain realities. We only have so much money to spend on FA pitching this offseason without saying bye to Jose/EE.

For A.A. to continue working with the Jays he had to be willing to accept a demotion, because apparently he was no longer trusted? For someone not only brilliant, but capable of instant major decision making capability and even Magic to be so limited is ridiculous.

This should be an easy offseason for Shapiro. The Jays need two Top Starters because they've already tried it with less. At least one, but preferably both should be LHP. They need one Top Reliever, a LHP to share the load with Cecil, because just having two LHP has shown to be not enough.

Sometimes you just have to be in the Postseason to learn how to play in the Postseason. So going forward, Offense should not be a problem. Starting Pitching must be better to be in the Postseason, but the BIGGEST NEED is top quality dependable Relievers. Just having Osuna, Sanchez and Cecil is not enough. Loup, Hendriks, Tepara all proved to be undependable. They might be good enough in the regular season, but beyond that Gibbons won't trust them.

Extending Bautista and Encarnacion beyond 2016 with cost somewhere between $15-20m annually. Tulo and Martin combine to make $40m in 2017. Donaldson's arb figure will be around $15m or so by 2017 (maybe more). That's bordering $100m for five players in their 30's (in some cases mid-30's). Unless your plan is to have a $200m payroll, that strategy is doomed to not only fail, but is a terrible waste of resources. You can't pay talent in their mid-30's for past performance and expect to get value in the future. It could happen, but history has shown that ages 35-beyond is when a player really declines, save for a few exceptions. It would be a sentimental signing, and Ruben Amaro Jr. has proven that those types of signings are not very smart.

I don't think there is any possible way the Jays extend both JB and EE. Maybe one if they agree to a hometown discount type of deal, but certainly not both. Nor should the Jays pursue that. The goal should be to extend the winning period beyond 2016. It's going to be difficult, and I suspect they might need to take a small step back in 2017 to move forward in 2018-beyond (unless some internal pitching prospects become mid-rotation options or better right away), but the goal should remain the same.

Extending Bautista and Encarnacion beyond 2016 with cost somewhere between $15-20m annually. Tulo and Martin combine to make $40m in 2017. Donaldson's arb figure will be around $15m or so by 2017 (maybe more). That's bordering $100m for five players in their 30's (in some cases mid-30's). Unless your plan is to have a $200m payroll, that strategy is doomed

I think Bautista and Encarnacion are worth more than Tulo and Martin. I think Tulo is a solid defensive shortstop whose best offensive years are behind him and who is a drastic overpay, both in terms of salary and what it cost (Hoffman) to get him. I certainly agreed with Jerry Howarth's comments that Reyes had become unplayable at short and had to be replaced, but the salary commitment and trade value lost are way out of line for what is essentially a defensive upgrade at short. No way at all is he worth the huge salary commitment. He's owed $98 million for his age 31-35 seasons, and Alcides Escobar ate his lunch in the post-season. It would be a real shame if we lost one of Bautista or Encarnacion because of the Tulowitzki trade.

Martin's contract is also a good one to shed. He's owed $75 million over his age 33-36 seasons. Again, I'd hate to lose one of Bautista or Encarnacion to pay that contract.

The CDN dollar is still hovering around 75 cents, and I don't see the price of oil shooting back up anytime soon. Rogers' stock price only recently got back to its March 2013 level, after spending the last 2.5 years as much as 20% lower. People are ditching cable for streaming. So I don't see a future of wild and crazy spending.

If Shapiro is as good as you have suggested SK, I think his moves are shedding the Tulo and Martin contracts, particularly the Tulowitzki one, not losing one of Bautista and Encarnacion. I'd much rather be watching the latter two in two years than Tulo and Martin.

Rogers as a company does one thing really well -- they increase their operating profit each and every year (By ~$100 million each year since 2010). They accomplish this by executing a strong portfolio management strategy, investing in growing segments and diligently managing the expenses of other segments.

"Media" (which includes the Jays) has not been a growing segment - it provides minimal profit, about 3-4% of overall Rogers profits. But things are changing - Cable is dying and Wireless is maturing industry. For Jan-Sept 2015:
- Wireless profits are down 1%
- Cable profits are down 1%
- Business Solutions profits are down 2%
- Media profits are up 119%.

And we know that media profits were up ~$40 million in Q3 (Jul 1. to Sept. 30) and that this was attributed to: "higher subscription and advertising revenue generated by our Sportsnet properties; and higher Toronto Blue Jays revenue." This doesn't include any revenues from the postseason or the 11 broadcasts with RIDICULOUS audiences sizes (3.5 to 5.1 million...) which is like having 11 Grey Cups or 11 Oscars. These will likely be 11 of the top 15 highest rated broadcasts for all of Canada in 2015. So we could probably assume another $40 million in incremental revenue for Q4 and at least some additional revenues in 2016 -- it's not unreasonable to assume that the late season surge was worth least $100 million in new revenue with small amount of associated new costs.

There is no doubt in my mind that Rogers is carefully analyzing this sudden opportunity - especially with other segments in decline - and will make investment & spending decisions that will maximize 2016 profits. How this will translate to baseball budgets, I don't know... but I'm confident that this decision is under immense corporate scrutiny, likely at this very moment. The full impact of the late-season surge is still unknown -- but a ~$100 million of NEW potential profits is a very significant amount for Rogers -- there's obviously a case to be made for adding $20 to $30 million in payroll to increase the odds of this happening again. I suspect this decision is still very much under debate and that there's no final 2016 budget yet and that the fans will be the last to know of the 2016 payroll -- but we'll certainly get some indications over the coming month or so as free agent frenzy begins.

I agree Martin is likely going to age badly, but Tulo is significantly younger than EE or Jose and just because of his defense should be productive longer. However his comments at season end did concern me. As for Cracka that's a lot of assumptions. They made a lot of investments in 2013 and didn't see any return on it for 2.5 years. There is no guarantee that putting 20-30 million more will translate into profits immediately. All it takes is one or two bad moves/injuries for them to be losing money. Of course you're right in that it could be a huge windfall. Will be curious what they do, but right now the word is same budget.

it's insulting to be told that now you aren't trusted any more and now you have to get approvals that weren't required before. I'm sure this happens a lot in some workplaces, but anyone who has achieved success and a level of trust in a senior position would be reluctant to suddenly accept new limits, because it's a step backwards, it's a sign of distrust or disrespect.

The kind of world where executives make deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars of other peoples' money (the Tulowitzki and Martin deals alone create a future $173 million in liability) without any oversight, is the kind of world we don't live in. Except perhaps for the Greek and Ontario governments. Alex was offered a long-term deal at apparently $2 million a year, with a one-year opt out if he wanted to see how it goes. He rejected it. Perhaps he felt 'insulted' by the idea of oversight. Perhaps he expected the President job himself. Perhaps he was angry about Beeston's departure. Perhaps he thought his future was better somewhere else. In any event, I won't be losing sleep over his plight. I don't see the 'victim' angle here.

"It was Anthopoulos himself who raised the example of the Gose deal (in his off-the-record conversation with Cathal Kelly).”

Cf, do you have a link to the story?

"Tulo is significantly younger than EE or Jose and just because of his defense should be productive longer. However his comments at season end did concern me.”

I didn’t mind Tulo's comments; at least the ones I saw. He said he was never comfortable after being traded mid-season, and was looking forward to having a full spring training.

Shapiro seemed to say on PTS (Q @ 1:43) that his reaction to the trades was "Wow, how can someone consider making those".

(http://www.sportsnet.ca/590/prime-time-sports/mark-shapiro-on-pts/)

Craka - an excellent set of data about Rogers and astute (we hope) observations. Bravo!

Cracks,

You only address Rogers media revenue increase by $100'millionincluding the 11 playoff games.

You did not address the ticket revenues for the teams.
The breakdown is 15% of ticket revenues for every game.
The players receive 60% of the ticket revenue for the first three games of the five game playoff. The remainder-25% is allocated to the teams( split equally) . The final two games the teams receive 85% of ticket revenue.
The first four games in the best of seven , the teams receive 25%.
The remainder is 85%. If the average between the stadium attendance is 44,000 between the two teams at an average of $300 tickets ( don't forget luxury boxes). The gate revenue is $3 million for teams when players are
Paid, and the final games the teams received almost $11 million.
Based on the above Jays had 7 games x $3 Million, and 4 games x $11 million.
That indicates the jays split $65 Million or $32.5 Million just for ticket revenue. Additional the home team keeps all revenue for parking, F & B and merchandise. based on 6 home games is worth an additional $7.5 million in revenue or $4.5 million in profit.
By making the playoffs Jays made an additional gross profit of $37 million for Rogers by making the playoffs. Why has the meatheads ofThe media not address this Shapiro .

The danger of playoff revenue is this is not the NHL or NBA where you can safely assume playoffs if you have a strong team. That revenue has to be viewed either as bonus or as a low probability (thus you only budget for 25-50% at best). The big thing for Rogers when debating budget is the massive ratings in August/September and the massive crowds and any tie in sales they were able to leverage. Now the debate is, if they resign Price and/or get Cueto (for example) will that be enough to keep the team at the top and get the 4 million they used to get in the early 90's? Will that keep TV ratings of 1+ million viewers a game going? I suspect Rogers wishes they had the opportunity to see if these crowds/tv viewers was sustainable over a full season so they could properly budget but that isn't the way things work. I'm sure tons of pressure will be on the team to keep fighting hard for first and to keep Price around. I still don't expect that to happen but it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Btw, I strongly suspect the Jays didn't think the perpetual sellouts and millions of viewers would actually happen if the team was a contender. After all, 92/93 was a very new stadium and a decade of build up. This year was 20 years of frustration and doubt that I expected would dampen the spirits a bit and not cause non-stop sellouts once the trades were done.

I have a hard time seeing payroll rise substantially or at least on the back of Shapiro being hired (regardless of any analysis of Rogers' financial statements). It's my understanding that prospective executives usually pitch on adding value and cost reduction. I struggle to believe that Shapiro's vision as presented to Rogers' included anything to the effect that the club should spend more on its major league roster. What I find more believable was Shapiro presented a dynamic vision of the Jays that provided a more believable plan for how the club would leverage its national reach as well as drive higher gate receipts. On the player front the team would seek to develop more homegrown talent to provide for better cost certainty (hence some of his comments on "long-term challenges").

The upcoming option decisions are easy, except for Dickey's.  While Dickey is likely to deliver $10 million in value, there are some issues with him which may become important especially if the club has a payroll of $140 million again.  You really don't want a repeat of last year's experience with Martin catching Dickey, which means bringing Dickey back also means Thole.  In this case, it also reduces your flexibility vis a vis spending limited dollars on a number of pitchers.  I would probably exercise it anyways, but I can see the other side.

Rtcaino -- I posted a link to the Cathal Kelly story in the previous thread, but here it is again:   http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/kelly-blue-jays-happy-ship-now-taking-on-water/article27040359/

And here is an excerpt in which Kelly recounts what AA said about the Gose trade:

Six weeks ago, while we were leaned up against a wall in the visitor’s clubhouse at Yankee Stadium, I asked Alex Anthopoulos what I thought was an obvious question with an even more obvious answer.

“You’re coming back, right?”

“I’m not sure,” Mr. Anthopoulos said.

At that point, the then-Toronto Blue Jays general manager hadn’t talked to anyone about his contract. He’d only met incoming president Mark Shapiro in passing, and had no feel for him. He said he was not interested in staying if it meant running every move up the ladder. He was open to collaboration, but did not want to be micro-managed.

He used the example of last November’s trade of outfield prospect Anthony Gose – a move that at the time seemed like small beer.

“Would I still be able to trade Gose without asking someone?” Mr. Anthopoulos wondered.

I guess he got his answer.

He also hadn’t talked to ownership. Ever. Mr. Anthopoulos said that up to that point in his six years as general manager of the Blue Jays, he had never had a single conversation with anyone up the Rogers food chain. Not team chairman Edward Rogers or new Rogers Media boss Rick Brace. No one. Outgoing president Paul Beeston was his sole point of contact with his employers.

“That’s weird,” I said (thinking it was a lot more than weird).

“It’s a little weird,” Mr. Anthopoulos agreed.

He didn’t say he was leaving. He talked about keeping an open mind and hoping for the best. He asked that none of the conversation be repeated while the team was still playing, lest it draw attention away from the playoff run and/or unsettle his upcoming talks with Mr. Shapiro.

One of the things that makes me feel pretty confident in Mr. Shapiro is the fact that the Indians were probably the team I was most terrified about running up against in the postseason. Those power arms (Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer), with a solid offence to back them would have made them a dangerous team in the postseason. Defence and BP seemed to the issue for them this year, and those things should be the easiest things to fix.

Shapiro's press conference should encourage Jays fans. In a hypothetical world where the Tigers don't trade Price and the Jays don't make the playoffs, nobody is surprised by the change in authority structure. We shouldn't let 2 fantastic months (and 2 trades which I supported and continue to support, but did do significant damage to the team's ongoing prospects) completely colour the entire regime. There were certainly a fair share of missteps along the way (as there will be with everyone), but perhaps some of them could have been avoided with more structure along the way.

"....The kind of world where executives make deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars of other peoples' money (the Tulowitzki and Martin deals alone create a future $173 million in liability) without any oversight, is the kind of world we don't live in. Except perhaps for the Greek and Ontario governments...."

It's incorrect to say that AA was operating "without any oversight."  Of course he had to get approval from Rogers for his payroll, and of course he had to get approval from Beeston for the big contracts.  The point is that Shapiro's arrival has changed the rules -- since Shapiro wants control of every player move, not just the big free-agent contracts.  It adds an extra layer of supervision, even for small deals, which wasn't considered necessary before. 

"....Alex was offered a long-term deal at apparently $2 million a year, with a one-year opt out if he wanted to see how it goes. He rejected it..."

It's quite astonishing that Rogers deliberately leaked all of these details, and it shows that Rogers is keenly aware of the public-relations disaster that they have suffered with their bungling of the situation.  It is not normal -- or respectful -- for a corporate owner to be leaking the details of contract negotiations.  When the Jays were unable to sign a free agent under Anthopoulos, did AA turn around and leak the details?  Did he say, "Oh, I offered an extra $2-million and an opt-out clause, but the player preferred to sign with the Yankees"?  No, of course, he didn't, even though it would have reduced the heat on him for failing to sign a free agent.  He didn't leak those details because it would have damaged his reputation for trust and confidentiality.  In fact GMs never (or almost never) reveal the details of their contract negotiations with free agents, because it would destroy the trust and confidentiality that are necessary in those negotiations.  So why is Rogers frantically leaking the details of their AA negotiations?  It's an obvious attempt to somehow restore their damaged image and to make AA seem greedy and unreasonable.  It's just not done in contract negotiations, and we shouldn't allow Rogers to spin us in this manner.  (Well, you can buy their spin if you want, but I think it's a shoddy tactic.)

"....I won't be losing sleep over his plight. I don't see the 'victim' angle here...."

You're missing the point.  I don't feel sorry for AA and I don't see him as a "victim" at all.  He will get a good job somewhere else, with the autonomy that he desires.  He's not a victim, and you don't have to lose any sleep over him.  It's the team and the organization that suffers -- because of an unnecessary disruption, an unnecessary departure, and the loss of a valuable asset.  Of course there's a chance that the Jays will still have a great season in 2016 and of course we should give the new guy an opportunity to show his abilities.  I'm still saying that it was an unnecessary disruption and an unnecessary loss of a talent.

I am the farthest thing from a marketing/branding expert, but it does occur to me that this imbroglio might be a textbook example of negative marketing/branding.  When Edward Rogers does this kind of stuff, the Rogers brand suffers. It's one of the perils of a self-named company.  What's the worst comparable personal branding disaster that that could happen to Bell- an outbreak of measles at the Alexander Graham Bell museum in Baddeck?

Edward Rogers might want to change a few things.  He could start by introducing himself to Tony LaCava and John Gibbons.  Just sayin'.

Rowdy Tellez is starting to hit in the AFL.  He's up to .318/.340/.568- he had fractured his hamate in August and a slow start was probably not a shocker. Tellez turns 21 in March and will probably start in double A. 

Is a top 30 prospect report in the pipeline?  If not, it might be nice to have an open thread to deal with minor league comments.

That would be a good start Milke!  It seems insane that nobody introduced themselves to AA in his years here.

If we look at cots for opening day payrolls within our division over the last 5 years with some rounding off,

            2011  12        13      14      15

BAL      87     84        92     108    119

BOS     164   175     155   156    185

NYY     207   210     228    197    210

TAM     42     63.5     62      77      76

TOR    70.5  83.5   119.5   137   126 

Every team aside from the Yankees are up significantly since 2011 who along with the Dodgers operate in a different world financially.  Even the spendthrift Rays with their terrible stadium are up around 60% over a five year period.  I understand that this is a crude measure but the trend is clear.

The average MLB player salary has increased over those five years from $3,305,393 in 2011 to $4.25 million in 2015 over that five year window, roughly 30% over five years although this increase is clearly not evenly distributed amongs all teams.  Rogers may be unwilling to spend more, but the salary trend upward is significant and inevitable across the game.

When all is said and done, it's not what Shapiro says/said, it's what he & his team does - if the team wins, fans (myself included) won't care who's running the show.

I would like to see a thread to deal with minor league comments as well. Anyone know if MLB network will show any AFL games as it did last year?

So LaCava has stated the obvious if payroll stays flat. We may need to take from hitting to give to pitching. The obvious candidate is Revere, but about the best I could see him getting back would be Jon Niese type.

I remember some questions surrounding whether or not EE really had gained his 10/5 status as he did leave the organization briefly when Oakland claimed him. Is there any chance the "new guy" would challenge this and try and move EE?

its' certainly possible the tulo trade doesn't turn out well, but according to ZiPS
projections of value, we came out well on top of the trade and it matches bot our needs (better defence at SS) and current go for it window.

http://www.purplerow.com/2015/8/21/9100099/the-troy-tulowitzki-trade-is-a-disaster-for-the-rockies

When considering the value of the "run to the Postseason", the revenue collected in ticket sales is just a small part of the total package. Concession can be a huge part of the Baseball experience sometimes well exceeding ticket revenue. The profit from this can be considerable. Adding in programs and souvenirs plus Jays Stuff sales can also be hugely significant, once profits are considered.

Sales of commercial time may not have changed in-season over the last two months, it will have changed in the Postseason. Postseason commercial time sales are not controlled by the Teams. However, pre-game and post-game commercial time sales are, and profits from those can be considerable. How do you calculate packed-house sell-outs the last two months to the tune of almost half a million more fans? How do you calculate viewership going from 300 K per minute early to mid-season to 5.12 Million per minute by game six? If the "value" of that doesn't exceed a quarter of a billion dollars I would be shocked, absolutely and totally shocked. I cannot see Shapiro having any limit on what he can spend, because when it was good it was amazing, it was magic and Rogers want that to return.

That said, I looked at the Free Agent Starter list. The Jays need two Starting Pitchers. They must be healthy, preferably young, consistently good and without a Qualifying Offer. At least one of those Starters must be a LHP, having both almost a need. One Starter needs to be as good as or better than Marcus Stroman, although having both that good would be great. The Jays also need Bullpen help as last Postseason showed. What they currently have is not enough and not good enough. Any Relievers acquired must be healthy, preferably young, consistently good and without Qualifying Offers. At least one Reliever must be a LHP as good as or better than Brett Cecil, able to pitch anywhere in games. Only having two LHP in the Bullpen was shown to be not good enough in the Postseason with Gibbons only trusting two pitchers, neither lefties. Acquiring all these Pitchers will not be easy, but it's neccessary. The Jays can get by with just that, although adding a BIG LHB (possibly at 1B) would be nice.

apologies this was meant to be in response to an earlier post questioning tulo's value.

The jays have lots of room on their 40 man roster - will be interesting to see which players they claim.

Speaking of ticket revenue. I have a question. Did anyone else fail to get refunded for their ALCS "Home Game 4" tickets that they paid for? I have been in touch with someone who paid for "ALCS Home Game 4" tickets which, of course, was not played. But they haven't been credited with the paid amounts.

Hmm.  That is a long time.  They've known that there wouldn't be a 4th home game since KC defeated Houston on Wednesday October 14th (aka Bat Flip Day).

Maybe I'm loopy but "ALCS Home Game 4" was played.

I see, it's the 4th home game - ALCS game #7

The rule V is interesting and post trade deadline, we've got plenty of space on the 40 man if we want it.  A few guys stuck this past year - Delino Jr. with Texas being the most notable example, but also Gilmartin with the Mets, Canha with Oakland.   Minnesotta got a mediocre bullpen arm in JR Graham, Odubel Herrera was a great OF pick up for Philli.  Josh Fields was a good pic from a few years back, but Hector Rondon (picked from Shapiro's Indians) has to be the best of rule v guy of the past few seasons and has been an elite reliever for the Cubs for 2 straight years. 

Shapiro also saw over a dozen non-descript guys picked from the Indians while he was GM and only bothered one unremarkable pick himself - but with our upper minors largely empty of prospects and contending teams like the Rangers and Mets showing you can get rule v talent and win games, I could see us going for a reliever - over the past ten years, the vast majority of rule v selections that have stuck have been by relievers with the odd fleet OF or defensively minded middle IF.  not a legit starting pitcher in the bunch.

If I understand things correctly, we need to protect guys like Andy Burns, Blake McFarland, Dwight Smith, Matt Dean,  Danny Barnes and Taylor Cole.  I figure those first four guys get protected, possibly Cole.  Coming off to make room will be Izturis,  one of our catchers, Zeke, Matt Dominguez and if you want to keep Cole / draft somebody, a guy like Jenkins, Rowen or Venditte.  Based on his comments to the media, I expect Shapiro to add some minor league FAs and possibly some international pitching. 

Toronto hasn't selected a guy since 2013 - the infamous Brian Moran - and we haven't lost a guy since Brad Emaus in 2010. 

I agree with everything said, including the opinions that conflict each other.

However I am doubtful that the Jay's could have sustained the .7049 winning % of the last 2 months of 2015. That is 114 wins over a full season. This % also includes the 1-4 losing record over the last 5 games of the season.

I am really glad that these last 2 months happened. We would have won the AL East with 88 wins to the NYY 87 by winning 38 games instead of 43 games after our 50-51 record on July 28th.

So next year if the Jay's win 100+ games, even 98/99 games then I admit that I am not giving them the credit that they earned/deserved. I will not say that I am wrong because that is not saying much, because I am wrong by a significant amount.

I just cannot anticipate/understand how St Louis won 100 games this year and only 90 last year.
LAA won 98 games in 2014 and 85 in 2015. I cannot explain it but I DO understand the LAA results. Like I said I cannot explain it but of the half dozen factors involved the FO and Managerial difference is probably the most significant.

Whoops, forgot to mention that the above post ignores the 7 spots freed up by our FAs, so of course if we don't resign Price, Estrada, Navarro, Buehrle or Lowe there are more spots and we get two more spots from Hawkins and Pennington.

options picked up for EE, Jose and RAD.

It's official, the Izturis era is over. The Jays picked up options on 3 guys and let the great Izturis go away (437 PA, 66 OPS+...sigh, many of us myself included thought he'd at worst be a good backup).
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/blue-jays-will-exercise-dickey-option.html

Interesting names coming up now. Cliff Lee is a free agent but is he healthy? Byung-ho Park is a power hitter from Korea who is available via the posting system - he hit 343/.436/.714 last year which sounds great but Eric Thames (remember him) hit 381/.497/.790. He is a 1B/DH so it seems the Jays have nowhere to put him but he is interesting.

Does anything think that Rogers is willing to take a massive risk and make a killer rotation by going after both Price and Cueto? No draft picks lost, but 2 aces to go with Stroman then the last two slots can be whoever is left around.

Craig B: https://twitter.com/sbrooksbaseball/status/658750502381993984

"I agree with everything said, including the opinions that conflict each other."

Great quote bpoz. Reminds me of this more famous one.

"Do I contradict myself? Very well, then I contradict myself, I am large, I contain multitudes."

Edward Rogers might want to change a few things. He could start by introducing himself to Tony LaCava and John Gibbons. Just sayin'.

His old man stooped so low as to meet some players. Tho maybe this has little Ed spooked.

Me Grimlock was refunded this week for all unplayed games. You have to ask explicitly though, or it goes to a credit for next year.

I like the Jays jersey over the shirt and tie in that picture, Jonny.  It conveys exactly the right tone.  The old man knew a thing or two. 

I am the farthest thing from a marketing/branding expert, but it does occur to me that this imbroglio might be a textbook example of negative marketing/branding. When Edward Rogers does this kind of stuff, the Rogers brand suffers. It's one of the perils of a self-named company. What's the worst comparable personal branding disaster that that could happen to Bell- an outbreak of measles at the Alexander Graham Bell museum in Baddeck? Edward Rogers might want to change a few things. He could start by introducing himself to Tony LaCava and John Gibbons. Just sayin'.

Egomaniacs are wired differently. In his mind, I'm sure he feels he pacified the masses with his "Alex would have had the exact same role" and "he walked away from a 5 year deal" spin-cycling.

I'm sure AA is far from perfect, but if he has half of the integrity and honor that has been written about him, it's not surprising that he elected to walk away from a bungling douchebag. His resume and flexibility (i.e. doesn't necessarily care that his next gig is GM) guarantees he'll carve out a decent role somewhere. I just listened to the JP interview and was reminded that his role with the Mets is 'Special Advisor'. Basically, the baseball world is Alex's oyster, so why stay?

Shapiro seems very sharp so far. Hopefully he has the chops to manage upwards, because with this ownership, I think it'll take a heavy dose of that particular skill to sustain long-term success.

"Extending Bautista and Encarnacion beyond 2016 with cost somewhere between $15-20m annually. Tulo and Martin combine to make $40m in 2017. Donaldson's arb figure will be around $15m or so by 2017 (maybe more). That's bordering $100m for five players in their 30's (in some cases mid-30's). Unless your plan is to have a $200m payroll, that strategy is doomed to not only fail, but is a terrible waste of resources. "

I don't think it's remotely close to a waste of resources, as that group has a very good chance of being an elite offense for the bull of the next 5yrs all by themselves - but especially with young talent like Travis, Pompey, Alford, Tellez, Urena, guerrero, Pentacost, Jansen sprinkled in over that span to help pick up any slack.

Thames is only 28 and is listed as an infielder, I'm guessing first base.
The Korean league is probably A level or he's playing in Korean Las Vegas.

Extending Bautista and Encarnation is a waste of resources if that leads to having minimum salary options like Jenkins in 2 or 3 starting spots. You make the QOs and see what other teams are offering. Bats could be more expensive than you think.

I'm going to pencil Thole as backup catcher. He's on his last year of arbitration and should make around 2 million.

In all 30 Teams of Baseball, only 62 Players hit 20 or more HR and 4 were Blue Jays. Only 10 players hit more than 38 HR and 3 were Blue Jays, with the youngest being Josh Donaldson.

Just putting into perspective how hard it is to be a Big Bopper, just how rare. And some confused Blue Jay fan wants some of them traded! How very, very sad.

Not traded, no one is saying trade Donaldson, EE or Jose. Tulo and Martin though I could see being offered though. People are just saying don't resign Jose or EE to multi year deals after next year. You don't offer big money contracts (even if its just a 4/64 contract) to players who are 34-36 years old. They are likely to depreciate rather quickly. Jose and EE are already at the point where they're only contributing with their bat. Getting old and declining is a natural part of baseball players in their 30s, which is why history has shown that offering big money to people past their prime is not wise.

"You don't offer big money contracts (even if its just a 4/64 contract) to players who are 34-36 years old. "

silly rule.

What position does a D.H. play? In 2017, does Pompey play RF, with Jose as D.H/4th OF or with Edwin as D.H./Backup 1B. You shouldn't let both go, just decide who's still got value at a position besides D.H. and keep that one.

Does anything think that Rogers is willing to take a massive risk and make a killer rotation by going after both Price and Cueto? No draft picks lost, but 2 aces to go with Stroman then the last two slots can be whoever is left around.

WOW, John! I like how you think.

You can't trade EE and Bats. They will play their last year and sign with whoever offers them the most money, regardless of them being offered a QO or not.

I supposed you could resign them over the winter if you want to give them an outrageous contract now.
I'm pretty sure Bats will want to play on a competitive team and I don't know if that describes Toronto.

That will play out next year.
For now, the Jays seems to have 5 outfielders and the rotation looks very thin.

           2011  12        13      14      15

BAL      87     84        92     108    119

BOS     164   175     155   156    185

NYY     207   210     228    197    210

TAM     42     63.5     62      77      76

TOR    70.5  83.5   119.5   137   126

2013 is when AA first went for it. Payroll gone up to 120. Poor results.
2014 was another shot at it, but there wasn't enough depth. Goins was given 2B but couldn't hit. Happ got a concussion. Lawrie couldn't stay healthy etc...
2015 the payroll is down and AA does not start the season with a full rotation. Clearly Rogers is hit by the weak Canadian dollar. This leads to AA having to trade dozens of arms to acquire some pitchers who carry the team the last 2 months but they don't have the same success in the playoffs.

Payroll should normally be around 130-140 next year. Clearly we're near the ceiling, but there should be some money from this year's run to re-invest to keep the fans energized.

Does anything think that Rogers is willing to take a massive risk and make a killer rotation by going after both Price and Cueto?

I would be surprised if Cueto doesn't run screaming back to the National League. He got a ring out of this, but he hasn't looked very good.

I certainly qualify as a more casual fan than the regular posters here and I potentially qualify as more business oriented than at least some of the regular posters here. From that perspective I throw out two opinions:

- the late season run and playoffs recaptured my interest in the Jays. While the management situation has created negative press as long as the team comes out of the gate playing well and competitive this will blow over and my interest will be maintained. I suspect this is true of the greater fan population and with a solid core as long as Shapiro can find some pitching all will be well.

- I feel it must be noted that Beeston and AA are largely the architect of their own demise. Rogers will care first and foremost about their bottom line. Beeston and AA sold Rogers on building the infrastructure and hired more scouts. Then sold Rogers on more payroll with the big Marlins trade and corresponding moves. With all the funny internal accounting few people know the true bottom line of the Blue Jays but whatever it is they significantly added cost to the business and the end of the 2014 season had nothing to show as a return on their investmement. At that point the powers that be made their decision and started the search for replacements. You can argue they made a mess of that process (I would agree) but I don't know any business manager that can increase costs, without increasing revenue, and expect to keep their job for very long.

"I don't think it's remotely close to a waste of resources, as that group has a very good chance of being an elite offense for the bull of the next 5yrs all by themselves - but especially with young talent like Travis, Pompey, Alford, Tellez, Urena, guerrero, Pentacost, Jansen sprinkled in over that span to help pick up any slack."


The next five years covers Bautista from age 35-39, Donaldson from age 30-34, Encarnacion from age 33-37, Tulowitzki from age 31-35, and Martin from age 33-37. I don't think there's a very good chance at all of those five being the core to an elite offense over the next five years. While there are exceptions to the rule, expecting players to maintain elite production heading into their mid-to-late 30's is not very smart, especially if you're paying them free agent market money in the process.

The Jays are better off accepting the fact that they have one more year with this core, and then trying to retool after that. Even 2016 is questionable unless they add about 3 good starters, which remains to be seen.

"I feel it must be noted that Beeston and AA are largely the architect of their own demise. Rogers will care first and foremost about their bottom line. Beeston and AA sold Rogers on building the infrastructure and hired more scouts. Then sold Rogers on more payroll with the big Marlins trade and corresponding moves. With all the funny internal accounting few people know the true bottom line of the Blue Jays but whatever it is they significantly added cost to the business and the end of the 2014 season had nothing to show as a return on their investmement. At that point the powers that be made their decision and started the search for replacements. You can argue they made a mess of that process (I would agree) but I don't know any business manager that can increase costs, without increasing revenue, and expect to keep their job for very long."


Well said. The point about having a top 10 payroll in 2013 and 2014 and not having the revenue or on-field results to show for it is something that is lost on many people recently in regards to AA's tenure. Some just point to August-October of 2015 as a reason for Rogers messing everything up, but that's simply not true. They were looking for AA's replacement as early as post-2014 because the results/revenue did not match the money being spent. They looked again in July of this year (Shapiro) because they seemed to be heading in the same direction (.500 or sub-.500 with a top 10 payroll). It's that simple. A hot two months which no one saw coming is not a reason to bag on Rogers for starting the process of finding a replacement and eventually following through on it. They were perfectly justified in doing so.

The prospect capital and value traded from 2013-2015 vs. the value the Jays actually received from those trades is astronomically one-sided, and not in the Jays favor (even with Donaldson's amazing value). Going with a value conscious hire like Shapiro actually shows good judgment by Rogers because even if their motives are profit-driven, it's still the best way to build a sustainable winner.

A hot two months which no one saw coming

Where by "no one" you mean "no one except those with a rudimentary understanding of math"?

The Jays were lapping the field in run differential long before their won-loss record started to reflect that they were the best team in the league. It's normal that a casual fan would be entirely focused on wins and losses, but one would hope that ownership could recognize the underlying quality (and solid process that got them there). Evidently that was too much to hope for.

The Jays seem to consistently underperform their runs for/against.
2015: 9 games under
2014: 2 games under
2013: 3 games under
2012: 1 game under
2011: 2 games over
2010: 1 game over

So 2015 was the 4th straight year they under performed their runs for/against record. Yeah, by a lot more than before but still badly off. I could see Rogers saying 'yeah, so what' to runs for/against if/when Beeston used it to defend AA.

"Where by "no one" you mean "no one except those with a rudimentary understanding of math"?

The Jays were lapping the field in run differential long before their won-loss record started to reflect that they were the best team in the league. It's normal that a casual fan would be entirely focused on wins and losses, but one would hope that ownership could recognize the underlying quality (and solid process that got them there). Evidently that was too much to hope for."


Except run differential is based on how lucky or unlucky a team has been over the amount of games they've played. It's not a predictive stat. Otherwise the A's would have gone on a huge 2nd half run as well.

Certainly the Jays were under performing and it was reasonable to assume they'd finish better than .500 without those trades, but if anyone (AA, Rogers, whoever) thought they were going to play .705 ball over the final two months of the season, even after adding Price/Tulo/Revere/Lowe, is kidding themselves.

Otherwise the A's would have gone on a huge 2nd half run as well.

Yeah, it's not like the A's traded their best hitter, their best starter, and their closer at the trade deadline. Oh, wait... yes they did. Hmmm.

if anyone (AA, Rogers, whoever) thought they were going to play .705 ball over the final two months of the season, even after adding Price/Tulo/Revere/Lowe, is kidding themselves.

I guess I'm kidding myself because I certainly expected to see them in the playoffs from the moment the Price trade was complete.

And BTW they didn't need to play .705 ball. They would also have won the division playing at .608, which would also have been well below their Pythagorean expectation.

I don't know any business manager that can increase costs, without increasing revenue, and expect to keep their job for very long.

Agreed, although viewership and attendance was trending up even before this year.

The interesting challenge for Rogers is how they will react to the surge in interest in the team. I say this not just because of the spike in attendance and viewership but because of the unique value of this team to a telecom company. I know a lot of people who have considered cutting the cable given the emerging netflix/antenna world but have held on because of the cable sports channels, in which the Jays are an important part. That has a huge value to Rogers, and I hope they factor it into their profit projections.

Except run differential is based on how lucky or unlucky a team has been over the amount of games they've played. It's not a predictive stat.

You've got that backwards. Wins and losses are based on how lucky or unlucky a team has been. Runs for and against are a far better tool (better, but not best) to show the true talent level of a team.

The horse has left the barn.

It has been a feature of John Gibbons' clubs over his career that they win noticeably fewer games than the runs scored/runs allowed would suggest.  Some people think that it is purely bad luck, and some (myself included) think that it is to some degree an incident of the way he manages his bullpens.  Shapiro has brought him back for 2017 so that horse has left the barn too...So, we are left with the usual off-season questions with some twists:

• who will be the 4th-7th starters (this year it is 3rd-7th)?
• will a veteran need to be moved to a less important defensive position and will it result in an overload at that position?
• is a rook ready?
  

Usually, there is some key position that needs an upgrade/replacement but that is not the case this year.  Small mercies.

"I feel it must be noted that Beeston and AA are largely the architect of their own demise. Rogers will care first and foremost about their bottom line. Beeston and You can argue they made a mess of that process (I would agree) but I don't know any business manager that can increase costs, without increasing revenue, and expect to keep their job for very long."

Any analysis of the revenue side, though, can't be complete without factoring in
a) the skyrocketing values of baseball tv contracts that Rogers was not properly transfer accounting for; and
b) the skyrocketing value of the franchise itself.

A proper annual accounting for each of these two factors would completely dwarf any accounting losses from the club over the past 5 years. And given the already established uptrend in attendance (at higher realized ticket prices), merchandise sales (especially after the switch back to the traditional uniform design), and TV ratings, i'd bet those losses were never more than $20mm in any given year. (mccown reported/guesstimated $15mm in 2014)

"Where by "no one" you mean "no one except those with a rudimentary understanding of math"?"

Sounds a lot like hindsight bias. You have made a highly statistically improbable run sound like an inevitability. The Jays were 50W-50L prior to the Tulo deal and then went 43-19 the rest of the way. A rudimentary understanding of math should tell you that this type of hot streak was highly improbable. A run on the division was even less probable given that New York was seven games ahead at the time, and both Tampa Bay and Baltimore were either tied or within half a game of Toronto in the standings.

According to Forbes in March 2015, the Blue Jays increased in value by 43% over the year prior.  That was typical for an MLB team. I do not believe that it takes account at all of the value to Rogers in having the Blue Jays for broadcasting content purposes. 

"Yeah, it's not like the A's traded their best hitter, their best starter, and their closer at the trade deadline. Oh, wait... yes they did. Hmmm."


Sure, but had the A's kept Zobrist and Kazmir, you think they would have gone on a 2nd half tear to catch up to their pythag? If so, then I'm not sure you know how run differential works. It's not a projection tool. Teams can greatly out perform their run differential and still not play up to that level over the rest of the season, or vice versa. If a team is +100 over 100 games but sit at 50-50, it means they underperformed their pythag. It doesn't mean they'll play at a +100 level going forward. A lot of factors go into play.



"I guess I'm kidding myself because I certainly expected to see them in the playoffs from the moment the Price trade was complete."


They were 7 games out of the East (or thereabouts) when all the big moves happened with two months left to go in the season. It's easy for you to sit there since it's not your money on the line, but if you expected anyone with financial stake in the team to expect them to go on the type of run that they did because their pythag said so is ridiculous. Teams under-perform or over-perform their run differential all the time. Clearly the extent to which the Jays were doing it implied that they were going to go on some type of run especially after they made those deadline trades, but reasonable guesses would have put the added wins at about 4 (in reality it was probably around 5) after those trades, and while that's significant over a 60 game stretch, it wasn't a lock to make up the ground they had to overcome.

If you guessed they'd go on the run they went on, congrats. I had them around high-80's (87-88 wins), which I thought would have given them the 1st or 2nd WC depending on how the other teams did, but obviously the Jays beating up the Yankees changed everything.

"Sounds a lot like hindsight bias. You have made a highly statistically improbable run sound like an inevitability."


Well said. It's not hindsight bias as much as it is him misunderstanding run differential and running with that narrative.

I'd love if Mr. German can dig up posts of his from late-July that shows his future telling ability.

Here's the Price trade thread.  There are some interesting prescient comments there...

Yeah, about 2015.

Starting the Season with only 9 main returnees to the regular 25-man roster, Jose Bautista (RF), Jose Reyes (SS), Edwin Encarnacion (1B/DH), Dioner Navarro (C), RA Dickey (KNB), Mark Buehrle (LHP), Drew Hutchison (RHP), Brett Cecil (LHP), and Aaron Loup (LHP) had a lot to do about early season struggles.

Starting the Season with 5 virgin rookies, Dalton Pompey (CF), Devon Travis (2B), Daniel Norris (LHP), Roberto Osuna (RHP) and Miguel Castro (RHP) had a lot to do about early season struggles.

Losing a Front-line Starter and your starting LF before Season's start and replacing them with inexperienced less than the best had a lot to do about early season struggles.

John Gibbons was brilliant when having to deal with these issues again (last time 2013) and should not be blamed. There are those that will blame Gibbons no matter what. But that's on them.

A.A. was a rock-star of a GM, amazingly brilliant. He markedly got better as he grew in the Job. His only problem was being too long-sighted when immediate needs should have taken priority. Of course having Andrew Miller turn down ("a bigger contract") your offer limits what you can do. I find it hard to fault him when he was just making this team better.

My only problem with Beeston is his five-year limit, it cost us 2013.

Fangraphs has its crowd-sourced free agent contract projections (for some, there is a question yet whether there will be a qualifying offer which will affect the outcome).  The interesting starting pitchers go 15 deep.

Fangraphs article from August 11 talked about the over/underachieivingness of the team and how that (plus projections for rest-of-season) factor into ROS performance.

Takeaway for me is Toronto's ginormous run differential to that date was driven by a very high wRC+ with men on base, but normalized in BaseRuns, the Blue Jays were still the top of baseball and 7 wins short of expected.  Quote: Deviation from BaseRuns record is almost always random. The raw run differential misleads, but only a little bit.

The stats include the first 12 games of the Tulo Era, so not exactly the point in time that most in the thread are splitting the season at, but there was good evidence that (corrected) run differential to-date as a decent indicator of the team's capacity to perform above their .500 to .540 (and rising) record.

"The next five years covers Bautista from age 35-39, Donaldson from age 30-34, Encarnacion from age 33-37, Tulowitzki from age 31-35, and Martin from age 33-37. I don't think there's a very good chance at all of those five being the core to an elite offense over the next five years. While there are exceptions to the rule, expecting players to maintain elite production heading into their mid-to-late 30's is not very smart, especially if you're paying them free agent market money in the process.

The Jays are better off accepting the fact that they have one more year with this core, and then trying to retool after that. Even 2016 is questionable unless they add about 3 good starters, which remains to be seen."

The obsession with age over talent is just confusing the notion of "post peak" with "serious decline", and exactly the kind of simplistic 5hinking that gets teams like the red sox in so much trouble. 30-34yrs are not serious decline years, at least not unique enough in examples of decline to requure focussing on age over talent, and while 35+ years are, that applies much more to defensive value than offensive value.

Bautista and EE will sign somewhere, and will most likely continue to be very good bats for the majority of those deals.

Very well said/explained by bps about the cost/revenue factor.
AA went for it in 2013 and it did not work out. I was shocked by that result. But it happened.
Going for it again at 2015 trade deadline. Again I was shocked by the results. Very pleasantly this time.

Let me state some very strong beliefs that I have held for a long time.
1) The Jays rarely spend big. So I was shocked at the financial commitment of the Marlins trade. I also hated to lose H Alverez.
2) This is the same as 1 above. The big $ and contract length to get D Price is out of range for the Jays. But he is good, young and may accept being traded when our window of contention ends. So even though I am terrified, I go for signing him.

2A) Boston signed R Porcello last year. I am 100% against us doing something similar to that. I could be wrong but I do not think he is that good. 200+ IP ERA 3.5-3.8 is a good pitcher. He is young and durable but the ERA is the problem for me.
You can never have enough pitching, so he can be traded and make any 5 man rotation every year due to the fragile nature of rotations.
On the current Jays, I am OK with handing him the #3-5 rotation spot. I want something better for #1 & 2. They also have to be young because I believe we are building sort of. So Stroman fills one of the 2 top rotation spots.

What I have said is not new but it is the basis for my opinions. I really enjoy participating in the discussion.

Based on those Fangraph contract projections that I just looked at, I wouldn't mind seeing us sign Gallardo for $14 million a year and Estrada for $12 million a year. We've traded away most of the young pitching we had in the upper minors, and we're going to need some arms to get us through the next few years. A rotation of Stroman, Gallardo, Estrada, Dickey, and Hutchison would probably be pretty good (especially considering the offense we'll still have). In 2017 when Dickey is gone, we could then move Osuna or another young arm into the rotation.

payroll criticism makes little sense to me.

2015: $123: 10th (1st: $273, 5th: $173, 15th: $115) - 5th mlb
2014: $133: 10th (1st: $235, 5th: $162, 15th: $107) - 14th mlb
2013: $118: 9th (1st: $229, 5th: $148, 15th: $91) - 20th mlb
2012: $76 - 23rd (15th: $88, 20th: $81, 25th: $64) - 22nd mlb
2011: $63 - 23rd (15th: $87, 20th: $71, 25th: $54) - 14th mlb
2010: $63 - 22nd (15th: $84, 20th: $72, 25th: $61) - 12th mlb
2009: $81 - 16th (5th: $115, 10th: $99, 20th: $71) - 20th mlb

and all that in the toughest division in baseball.

how could rogers possibly be upset with AA's bang per buck?

"The point about having a top 10 payroll in 2013 and 2014 and not having the revenue or on-field results to show for it is something that is lost on many people recently in regards to AA's tenure."

Attendance rose by around 437,000 from 2012 to 2013 in the post-trade excitement.  That's something! 

30-34yrs are not serious decline years, at least not unique enough in examples of decline to requure focussing on age over talent, and while 35+ years are, that applies much more to defensive value than offensive value.

Age 35+ is on average a time of declining offensive, as well as defensive, value.  The main issue is playing time.  I ran a Play Index for comps to Jose Bautista- they had 3000 PAs+ and an OPS+ of 150 or higher between ages 29 and 34.  There were 37 players comprising mostly all-time greats of the game.  There were 3 who were right-fielders as of age 34- Ruth, Robinson and Larry Walker.  Ruth played pretty regularly from age 35-38 and was well, Ruthian.  Robinson and Walker both played well in their late 30s, but due to more lost time and somewhat reduced performance offered 1/2 to 2/3 of their overall offensive value.  Bautista was a 5 WAR player on average from age 29-34; a reasonable expectation from ages 35-38 would be 2.5- 3 WAR per year- in other words, something like what Devon Travis contributed to the club in 2015 both in overall performance level and playing time. 

"Certainly the Jays were under performing and it was reasonable to assume they'd finish better than .500 without those trades, but if anyone (AA, Rogers, whoever) thought they were going to play .705 ball over the final two months of the season, even after adding Price/Tulo/Revere/Lowe, is kidding themselves."

I think it was very easy to argue at the trade deadline that the Jays had the best roster in baseball.

"Here's the Price trade thread. There are some interesting prescient comments there..."

fun read.

"Age 35+ is on average a time of declining offensive, as well as defensive, value"

the question isn't just decline, but how much decline.

ARod certainly was far below peak ARod last year at 40, but was still worth $15-20m.

I assume we're not discussing paying Bautista $30m/yr like his current stats would justify.

"Fangraphs has its crowd-sourced free agent contract projections (for some, there is a question yet whether there will be a qualifying offer which will affect the outcome). The interesting starting pitchers go 15 deep"

for the record these have usually been very accurate predictions.

looking at that list, the only guy in that top 10-15 at least that interests me at all is Price.

I think Iwakuma at #21 would be the next guy that looks attractive at that price.

Why did A.A. do what he did when he did?
The further away from the Trade Deadline the more each deal might costs. Some might never get done unless it's very late in the trade period (the last 24-36 hours). The Jays' Offense was exceptionally good most of the time. Their Defense had some holes, but was very good otherwise. The Starters were pitching better, sometimes much better. Gibbons had found who could pitch when so the Bullpen wasn't a disaster.

Despite what was said about how long it would take to stretch Aaron Sanchez out, they needed him more in the Bullpen. At times he's just so scary-good.

Acquiring Troy Tulowitzki was an amazing accomplishment, despite his issues with the trade. Getting one of the very best in Baseball at his position, in his prime, should be considered amazing. Moving out an untradeable contract was unbelievable. But adding a quality arm (LaTroy Hawkins) to the Bullpen at the same time is just so A.A.

Despite David Price only being a rental, getting one of the very best Pitchers in the game is never, ever wrong. The message it sends is so reassuring, so uplifting, so definite that it alone could carry the Team a long, long way. the Team just has to be good enough to start with.

Acquiring a quality Outfielder (Ben Revere) and another quality Reliever (Mark Lowe) capped a legendary Trade Deadline, one of the greatest of all time, by Anthopoulos.

I fully expected the Jays to be in the Postseason and put money on it. All the holes were filled so getting there should have been expected. No excuses, it should have been expected. Getting back will take work.

Just a note on those Fangraphs predictions.  The crowdsourcers out there routinely underestimate the highest value contracts, and may overvalue more average FAs.  This is a review of the predictions / performance over 2013-14.   The top three contracts signed in dollar value that offseason were Cano, Ellsbury and Choo (which alone should give pause to those of us, myself included, are hoping we spend big on FAs) but the Fangraphs estimates were about 147 million to low in total dollars. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/crowdsourced-vs-actual-contract-values-from-2013-2014/

The key result:  Players received, on average, 11% fewer overall dollars than the crowd expected. Note, however, that merely adding 11% to every contract’s value doesn’t necessarily create a more accurate overall picture. In fact, subtracting 11% from every crowdsourced estimate actually leads to a larger RMSE (i.e. a larger average difference) between the crowdsourced and actual values. The reason: as noted above, the crowd’s misses weren’t evenly dispersed, but generally included underestimating the contracts given to more desirable free agents and, in many cases, overestimating the amount received by more ordinary free agents.

the question isn't just decline, but how much decline. ARod certainly was far below peak ARod last year at 40, but was still worth $15-20m.
I assume we're not discussing paying Bautista $30m/yr like his current stats would justify.

A-Rod is a good example.  Take a look at his age 35-37 seasons in addition to his age 40 one.   You can pay $18 million/year for someone like A-Rod, but on balance, you are not going to get very good value.  Whether you should consider it depends on your other options and your payroll limits. 

to be fair, it looks to me like the top current projections have taken those past misses into account. though i do think the winning bid on price will crack the 30m aav barrier and get an 8th year.

Fangraphs has price "valued" at ~7 years / $191-$196 million. That definitely seems low to me given the demand for his service and the ability of some teams (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox) to spend almost unlimited funds.

I think Price will get at least $200 and that it will include some sort of Opt-out provision (3 years is standard). A team could front-load the deal to entice him to come and to somewhat protect themselves on the back-end. Something like: ~$100 million over the first 3 years (with player option to opt-out), ~$100 million over the last 4 years.

Uncharacteristically, I find quite a few of the top 15 free agent pitchers interesting.  Iwakuma is definitely one of them for me.  We'll see who is qualified.

Shi Davidi figures that Shapiro has about $27 million left in the budget (assuming that Revere is tendered). His given total payroll assumption is $135 million.  Underlying that assumption is a "penny wise, pound foolish" approach from Rogers. It wouldn't be the first time.

Going forward, what have we learned?
1) David Price can pitch in the Postseason. I just think he was misused. Marcus Stroman can pitch in the Postseason. NO ONE ELSE in the Starting Rotation should ever pitch in the Postseason.
2) The Offense needs to learn how to drive in runs from third base without the aid of a hit. They need to know when to do it and they have to be willing to do it. Until that happens, success will be unattainable.
3) Roberto Osuna, Brett Cecil and Aaron Sanchez must be in the Bullpen. NO ONE ELSE is good enough to pitch in the Postseason. And that's a scary thought.
4) The Jay can never have enough top quality LHP. More is absolutely necessary as we only barely have two.

The Offense and Defense is just fine. If they can fall into a massive upgrade at 1B, that would be nice, just not necessary. The Bullpen needs another top quality LHP, to compliment Cecil at the backend or where it's hot. A 2nd quality Reliever (LHP or RHP) would been important but not completely necessary if both Sanchez and Osuna stay in the 'Pen. If they don't, all bets are off. Acquiring 4 Top Relievers just became their biggest need.

A Top LHP in the Rotation is mandatory. Who's available? (In order or importance/ability/value) David Price (30), J.A. Happ (33), Wei-Yun Chen (30), Scott Kasmir (31), Brett Anderson (27), Rich Hill (35) and Chris Capuano (37). So basically David Price and a bunch of dogs. What is needed is someone to pitch with or ahead of Marcus Stroman. Only Price is good enough. The Rotation should be Price, Stroman, New Acquisition, Dickey and Hutchison. Will it be? I have no idea.

That's a bit harsh. I thought Hendriks was fine in the postseason, as was Lowe, although he's likely gone. Estrada as well was clearly good in the postseason. Dickey had one good start, one bad start so hardly conclusive. But he should be the number 4 going forward anyway.

I do agree with the need for LH, both in batting (lineup very RH heavy, making us exploitable by teams like the Royals in the postseason) and as we saw in pitching. Too many RHP power arm relievers all with similar profiles.

Shi's calculations are fine if the $135.0 Million numbers from last year are accurate. I always assumed A.A. was working in the $140.0 - $142.0 Million range for myself. Neither numbers really lets the Jays do what must be done. I've always thought $150.0 - $155.0 Million was fair for 2016.

If you non-tender Ben Revere to gain $6.7 Million in space, it means they have two of Dalton Pompey, Michael Saunders and Ezequiel Carrera on the Team in 2016. There's no depth, but there might not have been any otherwise. That makes available $33.7 - $38.7 - $40.7 - $48.7 - $53.7 Million depending on which initial numbers are right/correct.

The only other place to save money is at 1B. Justin Smoak, Chris Colabello and Edwin Encarnacion all play that position and that's one too many people. Non-tendering Smoak saves a mere $2.0 Million, which may or may not help. I don't think Revere with/without Smoak or Smoak with/without Revere has much trade value. And I don't think the high value Prospects get traded ever.

no need to non tender guys like revere and saunders. they have trade value.

I think you'd have to non-tender Saunders since he missed an entire season due to a bad knee injury and the chances of him coming back at full strength is unknown at the moment. He seems like someone the Jays could non-tender and then sign to a smaller deal.

Revere is a 2 WAR player so he has value to the Jays, either as a stop-gap LF option or trade bait. I would not non-tender him.

That's a bit harsh...

I did say going forward. Hendriks as a long Reliever/No. 7 spot in Postseason is fine. Lowe and Estrada are unlikely to be back. And R.A. is decent as No. 4 Starter.

I cannot judge Mark Shapiro. He's coming into a Team with basically, this offseason, an unlimited budget if it's needed. He can set it wherever he wants from this point forward. As long as he fills the seats/makes the Postseason he'll never be questioned about how much is spent. The Jays are an older, but much better team than any he's had lately. He has to do so little to fill the Team's holes, less than anyone should expect. The Minors are fine, just a lot young. One good draft next year, by someone other than himself, and it's a top 10 system again. He's moving into the fourth largest market in Baseball and a Mega-City in itself. He's working for a Mega-Corp that thinks it's a small market. He just needs the vision to think big. How good can we be!? He doesn't need to trade anyone if he just spends money.

An unlimited budget if needed? Not sure where you're getting this from. It has already been confirmed that payroll is staying the same in the 135-140 million range. I doubt he can just walk into Ed's office and go "give me 60 more million to spend this year.

If the Jays stick with a $135-140 payroll they are missing a big opportunity. If the Jays have a 500 season say goodbye to all the extra crowds and TV audience.

I think that is an assumption that might not be fully true. The Yankees in September/August were basically tied with us (thinking that last four game series we played in NY) and it was noted how many empty seats there were and how many Jays fans there were in that stadium. Jays certainly caught lightning in a bottle this year, but I don't think it's true that winning team in Toronto equals 50k screaming fans every night, it could have well just been brought on by not having it for so long that when they were in it it was this magical time.

On another matter about Shapiro and AA I remember listening to his interviews post trade (and even after Donaldson) that AA was up late at night after the staff went home figuring out how he could get the player he wanted to add. Everything Shapiro has said is about collaboration, with the GM taking the lead and then looping everything in before making the recommendation to the president. If the process is good than he feels the presidents job is just to rubber stamp at this point.

Both Antonetti and Huntington (Pirates GM and former Cleveland guy) both very much went into detail about how Shapiro likes to build around process and collaboration. What I've read about AA and the deals he initiated leads me to believe he's the opposite. The "ninja" so to speak, working alone late at night after the staff has been sent home hammering out last details on trades. So I don't think the issue was that Shapiro was going to be the guy making trades (although certainly with the interim GM he's likely going to be more involved til that is resolved) but that this collaborative effort and process might not have been something AA was interested in working under.

Mark Shapiro just smells a bit insincere to me. I can't think of a better word for it - something just seems super-corporate.  At least AA's non-answers felt like they came from a human being.   In fact, maybe that's it about AA - he really is an everyman.  I could see myself as him, or at least drinking beer with him, but I can't imagine interacting with Shapiro in any context - I don't work at a private school or live in Yorkville.  (I know these are wild guesses based on hunches, I'm just trying to get at the essence of why I'm so disappointed about AA leaving and being replaced by Shapiro). 

I've worked for guys like Shapiro before, and I get the appeal - doubtless, he's hard working, empowers certain people, sounds and looks pro, has had successes - but to use a Raps analogy, he's all Colangelo and no Ujiri.  Cathal Kelley has an interesting take on him for those who haven't read it:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/kelly-for-mark-shapiros-blue-jays-winning-isnt-everything/article27074360/

Whether I'm right or wrong on Shapiro though, I've gotta disagree with you Kasi - this Jays fanbase was awoken in a way I haven't experienced with ANY fanbase in my 15 years living in Toronto (and cheering for all the local teams).  young kids, highschool students, baseball nerds, the drunks at my local dive bar, my mom ... everyone.   this team is an a unique place.  I hope Shapiro can empower that.

I'd trust the word of someone who worked with him for years more than a local writer trying to make mileage out of the move. Go listen to Antonettis interview on 1050 when they asked him about Shapiro and he talked about the greatest thing that impressed him about the man is that he treats everyone with respect and is involved in their lives. He knows their families from his fellows up in management to the people who maintain the stadium. And he even does this with people in no position to help him or do anything for him. Sure he might be Ivy League and does some corporate speak, but everyone who has said anything about Shapiro who has worked with him loves the guy and that has to count for something. Sure maybe he's not the baseball mind AA is, but I've never heard anything credible disparaging his character and how he treats those he works with.

I don't disagree with you that it was crazy. Than again Calgary was crazy in 2004 when they made the cup. Couple years later when they were still winning but the city was used to it that fervor went away. People were starved for a winner after so many years and they got it and they came. To assume because they came for the breakout season that they'll keep doing it as long as they win doesn't really mesh with attendance numbers of teams that compete annually. It becomes expected, people look for different things to do and it settles down.

Btw that article is awful. Nothing about that it wasn't Shapiros decision to go to smaller payroll in Cleveland. No mention that AA is even more evasive in his interviews than Shapiro is. Assuming that spending prospects to acquire expensive vets is the way to win (when most of baseball is moving the other way), insinuations about Shapiros character with not one ounce of proof or quotes from anyone he's ever worked with.

AA did an interview today that the Duquette issue had something to do with the choice. He also said that Shapiro did not scold him and he had nothing to say but good things about Mark. I think this move was predicated by Rogers mishandling of Beestons departure and finalized by the different processes that Shapiro likes to do compared to how AA preferred to work.

I hope we're not descending into a comparison of Anthopoulos and Shapiro based on "how they sound in interviews" and "what their employees say about them."  Those are particularly meaningless metrics.

More meaningful than what Toronto writers say about them though. I'm not going to bother getting into discussions about who is a better GM or baseball guy or whatnot. I think we can also agree that Rogers bungled a lot of things and the fact that Ed never met AA in six years there is pretty galling. But there has been a persistent smear job on Shapiro by media since this news broke and AA today on radio came out and flatly denied those accusations and basically called them irresponsible. There is room for bot Shapiro and AA to be great guys but things didn't work out in a way that they could work together,

What smear job? People have been criticizing Rogers, not Shapiro.

As for writers: they are useful when they are quoting the candid private comments of the executives, which we as fans don't have access to. It's more telling than the fluff and spin of a press conference, or an employee's predictable praise for his boss.

The first thing to come out when the news broke was that Shapiro scolded AA about the trades. AA today came out and said that it was a flat out lie. So once again I don't trust any baseball writers on this compared to the word of people who have worked with the man for over a decade. Writers with confidential sources are often actually just bullshitting to make headlines.

this Jays fanbase was awoken in a way I haven't experienced with ANY fanbase in my 15 years living in Toronto (and cheering for all the local teams).

The Jays have put a lot of bad players on the field in those 15 years.
Just look at Baltimore. It's not that the latest Orioles teams were amazing. The teams before that had gaping holes left and right. That's the thing with Beeston, he was the president of an organization that was fielding bad teams year after year. I don't think Shapiro can do much worse.

My 80 year old mom who doesn't know anything about baseball was watching the Jays this summer, so that's pretty special, but 2 months can't erase 15 years of futility.

I hope we're not descending into a comparison of Anthopoulos and Shapiro based on "how they sound in interviews" and "what their employees say about them." Those are particularly meaningless metrics.

The correct metric is of course facial hair. Studies have shown a bias toward clean shaven men for executive positions - AA has been doomed for a while.

I'd like to see where it is said that the Jays have exactly $135.0 - $140.0 Million for Budget numbers. If it's a Reporter speaking they are citing their source. If Shapiro has a budget that low, Rogers is not about winning. It's about bottom line, how much money is made/lost. So I wouldn't expect a repeat.

This is all about optics, making the right moves. Sometimes that must run contrary to established procedures. If Shapiro doesn't have a free hand this year with all that has happened, filling the holes will be ugly. It will be ackward when the Jays' best Starters are Stroman, Sanchez and Dickey and a weak Bullpen.

Shi has good sources, but money numbers like Budget never leak, on this Team.

Happy birthday to Lloyd Moseby, Fred Manrique and Corey Thurman.  Thurman was in organized baseball at least until this year.

"Studies have shown a bias toward clean shaven men for executive positions - AA has been doomed for a while."

and I always thought the clean shaven AA was a timid mediocre executive, but the Bearded Badass was one helluva GM.

"The Jays have put a lot of bad players on the field in those 15 years.
Just look at Baltimore. It's not that the latest Orioles teams were amazing. The teams before that had gaping holes left and right. That's the thing with Beeston, he was the president of an organization that was fielding bad teams year after year. I don't think Shapiro can do much worse.

My 80 year old mom who doesn't know anything about baseball was watching the Jays this summer, so that's pretty special, but 2 months can't erase 15 years of futility."

See I don't think it was useless rosters for 15 years - instead I think it was a great lesson learned in the danger of "rebuilding". Over those 15yrs IMO the Jays went through 3 separate rebuilds and each built up pretty damn good rosters (around ~1998, 2003, 2008) that were unfortunately unsucessful and then torn down again.

This is the thing about "rebuilds" - you spend 5yrs rebuilding but there's still no guarantee that at the end of those 5yrs you're gonna win anything.

For the record I have nothing against Shapiro, and think he's got plenty of good on his resume.

I just think building the team AA has just built is no mean feat, and losing the guy who built it as soon as we finally did it is all sorts of crazy.

But Shapiro is a guy I'm generally positive about. Only that it's much easier for us to get worse than get better.

And at least Shapiro has been crystal clear that he intends to compete for a championship in 2016, so he's not as crazy as some at least.

"....The first thing to come out when the news broke was that Shapiro scolded AA about the trades. AA today came out and said that it was a flat out lie. So once again I don't trust any baseball writers...."

You need to read more carefully and avoid sweeping generalizations. The word "scolded" was a paraphrase in one report.  The actual quotes in the article didn't contain the word "scolded" -- the quote went as follows:  "Mark is a pretty direct guy and he was basically questioning giving up so many great prospects," a source, who was involved in Anthopoulos' contract negotiations, told Westhead. "He basically was trying to point out Alex really was going for broke."

So, in reality, Shapiro wasn't scolding AA, but he was indeed questioning the long-term cost of giving up so many prospects -- which is exactly what Shapiro also said publicly in his press conference on Monday.  He questioned the long-term cost, but he also said that the trades were great.  it can be read as a criticism or a questioning, but obviously not a "scolding."

Rather than attacking the writers who reported that Shapiro has questioned the cost of the trades, we need to read the reports intelligently and see the subtext and the reality:  Shapiro both publicly and privately has raised a lot of questions about the long-term cost of giving up so many prospects.

You don't seriously expect Anthopoulos to publicly confirm a disagreement between himself and Shapiro, do you?  Baseball executives are always diplomatic in their public comments -- that doesn't mean that there's nothing beneath the surface.  You seem to have total faith in the polite diplomatic spin that people put out in their public comments, while failing to look for the subtext.

To me, it's fairly clear from the subtext that Shapiro and AA have a somewhat different philosophy on trades, and Shapiro would prefer not to have traded so many prospects at the deadline.  That's fine, it's not a huge conflict, and who knows which of them is correct in their philosophy, but it's an example of the potential friction between these two strong personalities -- which explains why AA had to leave.  He didn't want to spend all his time trying to persuade Shapiro to approve his trades.

"I think this move was predicated by Rogers mishandling of Beestons departure and finalized by the different processes that Shapiro likes to do compared to how AA preferred to work."

I think that's pretty clear.

This is all a poor reflection on Rogers, not Shapiro.

I listened to the interview as well. The use of the word "scold" was Anthopolous's -- not Kasi's. So that's the way AA read the report, which he went on to describe as "insane", "irresponsible", and based on "brutal info".

He said he had a good relationship with Shapiro, described him as a "great human being", a "class act", and a "family guy", who treated AA "exceptionally well". He said the same went for Ed Rogers, who he went on to describe as "very generous".

He went on to explain that he no longer craved the GM role, and that while he had already been approached by other teams, he was "no longer in GM mode". He said that his experience is that if he followed his gut, "the money will follow". For the time being, he said he wanted to spend some time being a more involved Dad.

He said he always had Rogers full support -- even when it came to trading a guy like Lawrie who Rogers had heavily marketed.

ESPN Insider did their annual Future Power Rankings; how well teams are set for success over the next 5 years. Jays ranked 12th overall. However, in the category for minor leagues, considering quality and quantity of prospects, only the Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, Tigers and Angels scored lower than the Jays.

So, Beyonder, if you take those comments by AA quite literally, you're left with zero understanding of what happened.  A successful and popular GM who just walks away from a highly paid job at the peak of his success for mysterious reasons -- to be a father or spend more time with his family.  With due respect, nobody should be naive enough to believe that version.  Anthopoulos is doing his usual polite diplomacy.  He doesn't expect us to believe it.

The ESPN pundits did terribly in March predicting success in September. Five years? Forecasts for anything get more difficult the longer the time horizon... so... there's that.

Much was made of the Jays going young in April. Most of those players will be back next year and still young.

CF - do you have kids? I do and I can easily believe the version of walking away to have family time. AA did pretty much all he could as a GM, he took a team that was in a rut, rebuilt it and got deep into the playoffs with it. His family I read somewhere is wealthy so odds are he has no money worries nor ever has. Your kids are young only once and as they leave you notice that you missed out on stuff due to work. As a GM that work would've eaten all his time. It is easy to see, as a parent, the need to walk away even from a dream job to ensure your kids have memories of happy times with you. I find it crazy when wealthy people work their tails off after having kids rather than taking the time to be a parent. What the heck is the point of making that money if you don't get family time?

No its not that we're left with zero understanding, it is just that its not as sexy or as outrageous as some people want it to be. AA did say he had some issues with the way the Duquette thing was handled. He also has said he does want to spend more time with his children who are 3 and 5. I also believe the way AA operates and Shapiro operates aren't entirely in sync, but maybe even that part is overblown.

AA also in the past has walked away from higher paying/profile jobs for jobs he felt were more interesting or rewarding to him. He also went over how moving around exposes oneself to different ways of thinking and helps you grow.

We all have our ideas of why he left, but it might be just as simple as John and AA said. AA did this job for 6 years and learned what he could. In that time he lost a lot of time of his children growing up. Now he can take a step back into a less demanding position for a time to recollect and focus on his family.

The only media who has attempted to spin anything negative out of it have surprise all been Toronto media. National US baseball writers who know Shapiro have nothing but good things to say about the guy. Outrage is sexy and sells headlines, but there has been no proof of this by anyone close to the scene, just writers making uninformed suppositions.

The narrative that the local boy was screwed by wealthy/cheap owners and a cunning American replacement is far more acceptable to some, apparently. It gets more hits, I'm sure.

Wow -- seriously, guys?   After all the evidence we have of how Rogers handled Beeston and AA over the past 18 months -- which has been endlessly discussed in previous threads -- and all the evidence of what Anthopoulos himself said about "not having the right fit" with Shapiro, and everything that he said privately to Cathal Kelly about the loss of his autonomy -- after all of this concrete evidence from many sources, now we're going to just throw up our hands and magically believe that he quit his job to spend time with his kids??  This is a major step down from the empirical standards that we rigorously follow when it comes to baseball analysis!

By the way, every politician who quits a political race or resigns from a job ALWAYS says that they are doing it to "spend time with their family."  

"ESPN Insider did their annual Future Power Rankings; how well teams are set for success over the next 5 years. Jays ranked 12th overall. However, in the category for minor leagues, considering quality and quantity of prospects, only the Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, Tigers and Angels scored lower than the Jays."

Keith Law has been ranking our prospects that low for years. And yet we keep churning out prospect after prospect after prospect.

One thing to keep in mind: if AA plans to get back into the baseball exec game anytime in the next 20 years, there's a good chance he'll have to deal with Shapiro at some point (Mark's 48, barely older than I am.. What did I do wrong that I'm not running a baseball team yet???). No matter how much they disagree behind closed doors, you don't air that publicly - at least not now and not here. If AA came out swinging now, he could easily derail Shapiro's entire tenure here, and that WOULD be grounds for a grudge, IMHO.

Now, I'm not saying it's one way or the other, but at this point, they're NEVER going to say anything but "we're good." unless it's really, really bad and/or one of them is retiring..

...No matter how much they disagree behind closed doors, you don't air that publicly - at least not now and not here....  At this point, they're NEVER going to say anything but "we're good."....

This is exactly the right explanation for AA's latest public comments.  There's been a storm of public anger and outrage from the fans, and Rogers needs AA to help calm it down.  He's doing the owners a favor, because he doesn't want to burn any bridges, and he knows that the favor will someday be repaid.  You have to maintain good relations in the baseball world if you want to stay in the baseball world.  That's why AA is being diplomatic now.

according to blair he's going to join the dodgers as some kind of special assistant. this would make sense as friedman and zaidi are both creative types like AA.

"This is a major step down from the empirical standards that we rigorously follow when it comes to baseball analysis!"

CF. I don't know what you think empirical standards are, but you are asking that people place no weight on the actual things people with actual knowledge say about their actual dealings, and instead subscribe to what you call "subtext". Does that strike you as being a good empiricist? Do you see the irony here?

Ultimately I hold AA in every bit as high regard as you do, which is why I am not so quick to dismiss his statements. If your theory were correct, what you have described as diplomacy on AA's part, I would read as being completely disingenuous. It's because I'm not prepared to ascribe that to AA that I see things the way I do.

On your last point, no free agent in the history of free agents has ever said "I just followed the money". They always talk about fit.

I'd hold Cathal Kelly's private comments to the same standard as the guy who said Shapiro scolded AA, not worth the paper (or html) they were written on. I'm not an expert on Kelly, but that article jerjapan linked did not paint Cathal in a positive light in how he's approaching this situation.

I agree with you that the fit is likely an issue, given how many of the people who work with Shapiro talk about moves/decisions being collaboration and process driven. Shapiro believes the Presidents role when the process is good is to just rubber stamp. But it does mean that Shapiro places great emphasis on the GM working closely with scouts/assistants/analytics/etc and gathering a lot of information before making decisions.

The articles on AA have talked a lot about how he calls everyone and floats out ideas and offers players to see if he can get bites. Then he calls back again and again over time and does things like throw out Lawrie's name and voila we get Josh Donaldson. This seems a lot different from the process Shapiro pushes and I think this was the "fit" and autonomy issue that got in the way.

Basically AA is very flexible and creative, but its a process driven by him with decisions made by him. Shapiro wants a team collaboration effort led by the GM and I don't think the two styles mesh. All imo of course, but I think the styles have been delved in to by numerous articles done on AA's trade deals and by Shapiro and people who have worked with him on how they operate.

Keith Law ranked the Jays' system 19th going into this season.

Norris, Hoffman, Sanchez, Pompey, Travis, Osuna, Castro, Pentacost, Alford, Reid-Foley.

19th.

my bad - Keith Law had them ranked 24th coming into this year.

24th.

jays ranked 18th in the future power rankings heading into this season, btw.

China Fan - yeah, lots say that and I actually know a few politicians who have told me directly and honestly that they were thankful they didn't get knee deep into it until their kids were deep into the teen years. From ages 3-13 is a key stretch of time, to work 18 hour days during that stretch you are neglecting your kids and will regret it. If you are wealthy as I'd assume AA is by now then take the break for at least some of it. If he has accepted a special assistant position somewhere else that would be a part-time job (by his standards) and allow much more family time while still being in baseball. In a decade he'll still be young and able to step into a GM or presidents role if he so desires. Heck, by that point there might even be a new Montreal team for him to go to and really live out his dream.

Agreed Ugly, those prospect rankings are too low -  as always with Law. 

Where would you put our system?  I've been saying late teens for a while but I think I put more weight on low level guys with high ceilings than some people would.

Just curious if anyone knows. With AA, it was always (well, mostly) "if you hear about it, it ain't happening" for trades/signings. Is this an organizational philosophy, or more a personal one? How has Shapiro been in the past as far as leaking of trades/signings? Any idea what to expect?

Fangraphs has its ranking of top free agents up.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

Non-compensation ones in the top 20 are Price, Cespedes, Cueto, Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Ben Zobrist and pretty much anyone outside the top 20. Estrada is ranked #23 with most thinking the Jays wont give him a QO

As far as minor league system rankings, I don't have a clue where we rank and I refuse to believe anyone here does either. I'd be hard pressed to name 5 prospects from every MLB team, much less 30.

And the lower prospects are not insignificant. The Batter Box 21-30 for 2013:

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20131009144031100

Pompey, Goins, Labourt, Tellez, Hollon.

ah, the old, "I don't know, so you don't know either" argument.

Now I'm not purporting to know much about more than a handful of prospects in any system aside the Jays - or the odd team whose farm team is interesting to me any given year (Cleveland, at the moment).   But of course, nobody anywhere has a detailed understanding of every prospect in every system - not GMs, scouts, analysts, or the man himself, John Sickels. 

But what we can evaluate with some degree of knowledge as interested observers (rather than insiders / experts) is the quality of a farm system from a consensus POV year to year, prospects arriving in the bigs, the consensus review of different team's drafts,  the GM / front office, and general trends in drafting and development.  we can also, somewhat objectively, state that Keith Law has been low on the Jays for years, despite years of tremendous talent being produced.  Some guys just look for different things. 

Hypobole, your back of the system list from 2013 just confirms my point - I knew that those guys might surprise - not which ones, of course, but  rather that we had a deep system and that AA's team and approach was generating real upside, especially when compared to JPRs. 

You seem to be implying that unless we know all the prospects in every system we can't have an opinion on the system as a whole, which is a ridiculously impossible standard. 

I put together a loose ranking of our prospects this year in order of just plain performance, and not on scouting/tools/upside. a little tricky to do with differing ages and levels and positions but i think it's pretty close.

the ones we traded away are asterisked:

D.Travis (24): 238pa, 6.4war/650pa
R.Osuna (20): 69.2ip, 4.7war/200ip
A.Alford (20): (A+: 255pa, 153wrc+ / A: 232pa, 143wrc+)
D.Pompey (22): 103pa, 2.8war/650pa (AAA: 295pa, 114wrc+)
A.Sanchez (22): 92.1ip, 2.6war/200ip

* D.Norris (22): 60.0ip, 1.8war/200ip (AAA: 90.2ip, 3.54fip)
C.Greene (20): (AA: 25.0ip, 4.15fip / A+: 40.0ip, 2.34xfip)
R.Tellez (20): (A+: 148pa, 143wrc+ / A: 299pa, 130wrc+)
S.RFoley (19): (A+: 32.2ip, 3.81fip / A: 63.1ip, 3.44fip)
* J.Hoffman (22): (AA: 48.0ip, 3.41fip / A+: 56.0ip, 3.70fip)

* M.Castro (20): 17.2ip, -3.4war/200ip (AAA: 33.1ip, 5.02fip)
* M.Boyd (24): 57.1ip, -3.3war/200ip (AAA: 39.0ip, 3.64fip)
R.Urena (19): (A+: 128pa, 76wrc+ / A: 408pa, 107wrc+)
* J.Tinoco (20): (A: 121.1ip, 2.86fip)
S.Dawson (21): (A+: 26.0ip, 3.74fip / A: 101.2ip, 3.19fip)

* A.Tirado (20): (A+: 77.1ip, 4.25fip)
* D.Lugo (20): (A+: 276pa, 68wrc+ / A: 218pa, 124wrc+)
D.Davis (20): (A: 554pa, 113wrc+)
*N.Wells (19): (A-: 18.0ip, 2.66fip / Rk: 32.0ip, 4.24fip)
D.Smith (22): (AA: 512pa, 108wrc+)

M.Nay (21): (A+: 437pa, 100wrc+)
* J.Laibourt (21): (A+: 116.0ip, 4.01fip)
D.Jansen (20): (A: 184pa, 87wrc+)
C.Hollon (20): (A: 13.1ip, 4.67fip / A-: 45.1ip, 3.32fip)
* J.Brentz (20): (A-: 14.0ip, 3.53fip / Rk: 22.0ip, 5.16fip)

A.Perdomo (21): (A-: 21.1ip, 3.70fip / Rk: 48.0ip, 3.83fip)
J.Harris (21): (A-: 36.0ip, 4.01fip)
* J.Cordero (23): (AA: 41.2ip, 3.42fip / 25.1ip, 3.23fip)
X M.Pentacost (22): ---
X V.Guerrero (17): ---

probably missed a number of guys still in system.

jerjapan, you may know our prospects and have an opinion on our system. That is far different from comparing our system to other systems, which is ridiculous when you don't have the necessary familiarity with the other systems you are comparing to ours.

I'm starting to be a fairly good cook. But I'm not going to say I'm the 18th best cook in my town when I don't know how well other people in my town can cook.

The age must have been recorded in the spring. Sean Reid-Foley turned 20 in August.

"Fangraphs has its ranking of top free agents up."


I'd be very tempted to overpay for Iwakuma, even for slightly more than FG lists in that link. Given his age it would be a short-term deal (3 years max), and his skill set is perfect for the Jays. The only downside is he will probably be qualified so it would cost the Jays a pick, but if they want to win in 2016 without bringing in an albatross contract, he's probably the best combination of value + length of contract. Kennedy is another one I like for that price.

scottt the ages are all as of June 30 or July 1, as per fangraphs and baseball reference definition of age year.

I'm starting to be a fairly good cook. But I'm not going to say I'm the 18th best cook in my town when I don't know how well other people in my town can cook.

Hypobole, did you even read my post?  I specifically address your position and elaborate on my thinking in detail.  I'm happy to debate you - I enjoy being a curmudgeon it that's not obvious - but I'm looking for ideas to really chew on, not a facile cooking analogy that straight up refuses to acknowledge my point. 

For what it's worth SK, the Fangraphs predictions see Kennedy as  being a fit for us as well, although I remember the last time his name come up on the Box a few years back people were worried that his flyball tendencies wouldn't play well at the Dome.  He's homer prone and while he gets Ks he's not a hard thrower. 

Fangraphs also sees us resigning Estrada and Navarro, for a thoroughly underwhelming offseason, which seems pretty reasonable to me.  Sigh. 

While I might very well give Estrada a QO, I would not re-sign Estrada and Navarro because of the decision to exercise the Dickey option.  In my view, Martin catching Dickey did not work out. Chasing the knuckleball wore him out and when he was assigned to catch Dickey,  his offence in general suffered.  It is not a good use of resources to have Thole catch Dickey, Navarro catch Estrada and Martin catch 3 other pitchers. 

The Fangraphs free agent list showed David Price signing with the Red Sox. Sigh.

I can't see Navarro returning to Toronto if he can land a job as a #1 catcher somewhere. And Estrada would probably want to go where Navarro is going.

I think I'd take the risk and make a QO to Estrada, but I'd be surprised if Shapiro were to do that.

Estrada gets a QO, per Davidi.

Ha! Proven wrong within seconds of a post! A new personal record! :-)

"I think I'd take the risk and make a QO to Estrada, but I'd be surprised if Shapiro were to do that."


It's either Estrada for one year/$15.8M when the team has practically no SP depth or get a pick for him. Not surprised at all that Shapiro did that. It's really a no lose situation for the Jays. Even if Estrada accepts it, in that scenario the Jays get a MLB starter for only an additional year (no long-term albatross).

If Buehrle had finished the season stronger I would have done the same for him, but that's probably out of the question now.

Ha! Proven wrong within seconds of a post! A new personal record! :-)

That's hillarious Dave Till.  I thought that only happened to me! 

I think you can still resign guys that you offer a QO?  If so, this seems to improve our chances of getting a solid value short-term deal for Estrada - he's the fringey kind of QO guy who's value is badly limited by the draft pick compensation attached. 

I certainly hope bringing him back is the goal, rather than the FO hoping he rejects the offer and we get the pick.  Shapiro talked a lot about risk management when hired and there is a LOT of risk in our rotation at the moment - it seems like bringing Estrada back is the safest start to free agency. 

I agree with Mike Green about bringing back Thole over Navarro - we've had lots of conversations about Martin's aging and I want to see the team ride him less hard next year, which to me means less Dickey, even if Thole's bat is so weak that he can only really catch Dickey.  We would need a good AAA depth option in that case though.

Navarro and Estrada had legit chemistry, but I can't recall a battery following each other in FA??

I think you can still resign guys that you offer a QO?

Correct

"Keith Law has been low on the Jays for years, despite years of tremendous talent being produced."

Who are these tremendous talents produced? One legit TOR starter, some excellent bullpen arms and a bunch of defensive specialists, none of whom are league average hitters. What am I missing?

This might be the first year that if you heard a rumor, it still might happen. That said, the Blue Jays are interested in Chris Davis. http://www.tsn.ca/report-price-interested-in-cubs-jays-covet-davis-1.389379

He should be in the $18.0 - $22.0 Million range over a 5-7 year contract range. Considering that even back of the Rotation Starters will be going for $10.0 or more Million for two or more years, going for a Big LHB for the middle of the Lineup before getting a Starter seems very strange. Unless the Budget limitation excludes one BIG signing, that Budget limit is either not fixed, or it's not where we think it is. I find that a fascinating concept.

Why on earth would the Jays be interested in Chris Davis? A 1B/DH/RF who can play 3B in an emergency coming off his 2nd best year ever with over 200K's. Yeah, he was valuable last year but I'd bet strongly against him being worth whatever he gets over the life of his next contract. Where would you play him? LF maybe? Yeah, that would make for a very, very scary lineup if no one else is lost but that is a lot of dough to risk.

First you should consider the LHP Free Agent list and then look at the multitude of near-MLB ready LHP in our system, the merits of signing one become paramount. Those available consist of David Price and a bunch of dogs. (Age listed: 2016 Age.) In order of importance/position on team:

David Price (30), 18-5, 2.45, 220.1, Front-line Starter, no Q.O., no health concerns.
J.A. Happ (33), 11-8, 3.63, 171.0, 3-4 Starter, no Q.O., some health concerns.
Wei-Yun Chen (30), 11-8, 3.34, 191.0, 3-4 Starter, with Q.O., no health concerns.
Scott Kasmir (32), 7-11, 3.10, 183.0, 3-4 Starter, no Q.O., with health concerns.
Brett Anderson (28), 10-9, 3.69, 180.1, 4-5 Starter, with Q.O., with strong health concerns.
Rich Hill (36), 2-1, 1.55, 29.0, 4-5 Starter, no Q.O., with strong health concerns.
Chris Capuano (37), 0-3, 9.45, 13.1, maybe a #5 Starter, no Q.O., with strong health concerns.

That's about it. Consider what the Jays need and what's available. Compare relative costs in signing any of them. David Price is worth the investment, I don't think anyone else is. So sign Price, which will be expensive or trade for a top LHP, which will also be expensive.

"Who are these tremendous talents produced? One legit TOR starter, some excellent bullpen arms and a bunch of defensive specialists, none of whom are league average hitters. What am I missing?"

Guys from our last 5yrs system (2011-2015), min 50pa/ip. fwar used but pitchers are an average of fip and ra9 war.

P M.Stroman (24): 157.2ip, 85era-, 76fip-, 4.4war/200ip
P N.Syndergaard (22): 150.0ip, 88era-, 84fip-, 3.7war/200ip
P H.Alvarez (25): 563.0ip, 96era-, 105fip-, 2.3war/200ip
P A.Desclafani (25): 217.2ip, 112era-, 94fip-, 1.9war/200ip
P D.Hutchison (24): 393.2ip, 123era-, 104fip-, 1.5war/200ip

P R.Osuna (20): 69.2ip, 63era-, 73fip-, 4.7war/200ip
P A.Loup (27): 211.0ip, 77era-, 84fip-, 2.4war/200ip
P A.Sanchez (22): 125.1ip, 65era-, 102fip-, 1.9war/200ip
P S.Dyson (27): 129.0ip, 83era-, 88fip-, 1.9war/200ip
P K.Graveman (24): 120.1ip, 103era-, 113fip-, 1.4war/200ip
P D.Norris (22): 66.2ip, 97era-, 118fip-, 1.4war/200ip
P J.Nicolino (22): 74.0ip, 103era-, 129fip-, 1.4war/200ip

P C.Jenkins (27): 100.2ip, 81era-, 108fip-, 1.3war/200ip
P K.Drabek (27): 177.2ip, 126era-, 130fip-, -0.1war/200ip
P D.Webb (25): 109ip, 114era-, 112fip-, -0.8war/200ip
P Z.Stewart (28): 103.0ip, 161era-, 135fip-, -2.0war/200ip
P B.Mills (30): 79.0ip, 195era-, 142fip-, -2.8war/200ip
P M.Boyd (24): 57.1ip, 185era-, 162fip-, -3.3war/200ip



3B B.Lawrie (25): 2033pa, 102wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
C Y.Gomes (27): 1340pa, 105wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
2B D.Travis (24): 238pa, 135wrc+, 6.3war/650pa
DH T.D'Arnaud (26): 801pa, 107wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
1B D.Cooper (28): 226pa, 101wrc+, -0.9war/650pa
CF K.Pillar (26): 860pa, 88wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
LF D.Pompey (22): 146pa, 88wrc+, 1.8war/650pa
RF A.Gose (24): 1151pa, 82wrc+, 1.1war/650pa
SS R.Goins (27): 742pa, 66wrc+, 1.1war/650pa

UT E.Thames (28): 684pa, 96wrc+, -0.1war/650pa
OF J.Marisnick (24): 727pa, 67wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
IF A.Hechavarria (26): 1788pa, 73wrc+, 0.3war/650pa
C C.Perez (24): 283pa, 82wrc+, 2.5war/650pa

UT M.Sierra (26): 449pa, 85wrc+, -0.6war/650pa
OF D.Mastroianni (29): 306pa, 55wrc+, 0.8war/650pa
IF
C J.Arencibia (29): 1687pa, 78wrc+, 0.3war/650pa


I think that's all of them.

Hypobole, Law's anti-Jays bias has been noted and discussed ad naseum over the years.  Not to say that he has it in for us - although that may be a part of it, the disgruntled ex-employee thing.   rather than that, I feel that his approach to evaluating talent is likely just different than the Jays FO.  He recently said he'd offer Estrada one year at around 5 million, as an example.

Uglyone beat me to the punch as I was drafting this, so I'll try to break things down differently so as not to waste my time - let's take the AA regime's drafts only to see if they have produced tremendous talent or not.  Of course, much of that talent was traded, but it is still evidence of the Jay's system producing quality.  I'll leave the last draft off since it's early to evaluate, but I will say it appears to be the worst of AA's drafts thus far. 

2010 - sanchez, Thor, Justin Nicolino, Dyson, Pompey, Sean Nolin
2011 - Joe Musgrove, Kevin Comer, Norris, Dwight Smith, Descalafani, Andy Burns, Matt Dean,  David Rollins, Pillar
2012 - DJ Davis, Stroman, Mitch Nay, Chase DeJong, Anthony Alford, Ryan Borucki, Shane Dawson
2013 - Clinton Hollon, Boyd, Connor Greene, Graveman, Tim Locastro, Rowdy Tellez
2014 - Phil Hoffman, Max Pentacost,Sean Reid-Folley, Nick Wells

So in other words, much / most of the talent used to acquire David Price, Tulo (AA signed Castro and Tinoco) all of the prospects in the Donaldson trade (AA signed Barreto and obviously acquired Lawrie to boot) Mark Lowe, JA Happ / Mark Saunders, Thor was the key piece in the RA Dickey trade, 3 of the 6 key pieces in the Miami Blockbuster (if we include Hechevarria, who was signed by AA) and the two guys swapped for the IFA cap space to sign Guerroro Jr. who has huge upside. 

Not to mention the talent we kept that excelled for us on the MLB roster - Sanchez, Pillar, Stroman - top prospects Pompey, alford, greene, tellez, pentacost, reid-folley and hollon, and a half dozen other legit prospects. 

Law is biased against the Blue Jays and the 29 other teams.

"Oh ye of little faith."

Except, when it comes to Rogers -"...little faith..." is the appropriate level of faith.

Let's pretend they cut 5 or 10 million off the payroll - can we still get to the promise land?

Perhaps... most every thing on the offense is already priced in for 16 and looks borderline (or better) awesome. The problem is the pitching.

Say we have no Buehrle, Price or Estrada can we still get to the play-offs? We'd have to have a starting rotation of Stroman (an Aceish), Dickey (an innings eater), Hutchison (a very confused young man), Osuna (he who I believe in 3 to 4 years will be our Ace) and Sanchez (who is old enough now to perhaps be able to harness his prodigious talent). No depth - zero nada. AND - no way Osuna or Sanchez last the full season coming off the few innings they've thrown in 15. Other than that Mrs Lincoln - how did you enjoy the play?

The above assumes Shapiro has found some cheapish pen arms to give Cecil a day or two off a month AND that Schultz, Tepera, "The Aussie" and Delabar (amongst others) ALL become gods. Could happen...er...might happen...OK...well there is always prayer. Perhaps we could bring in Ben Carson to talk to his personal god - the guy who talks to him on a daily basis about West Point. Hopefully the voice in his head knows some baseball...could happen...

BUT - here is why it (or some similar scenario) might work...all the above pitching staff has to do is get us to July. At that point - if our offense is raking - we'll be in contention and Shapiro (having kept almost all his limited powder dry) will be able to go out and get us a "Rent an Ace" (or two) for the run for the roses.

If - Rogers does reduce the pay-roll is there any other way to glory? If not, whether this works or not at least it's a "strategy." And even a bad strategy might just get us there - at least it beats deciding you're beaten before you start...