The first order of business: sort out AA's situation. Is Shapiro going to call all the shots, or he going to just take on Beeston's role and leave AA to do the baseball side? I very much hope that they re-sign AA, but it's Shapiro's call.

The second order of business: what to do about David Price? He'll command something like seven years and $180 million, at least some of which will wind up being dead money. But if the Jays don't sign him, (a) they'll demoralize the fan base and the team, and (b) the Yankees or Red Sox might sign him.

Next is to sort out the outfielders, and then next is to sort out the middle infield (Goins versus Travis?) and finally maybe pick up a pitcher or three. Busy times!

I'll drop off my ideal scenario:

1) 2B Travis
2) 3B Donaldson
3) RF Bautista
4) DH Encarnacion
5) 1B Colabello
6) SS Tulowitzki
7) C Martin
8) LF Saunders
9) CF Pillar

B) UT Smoak
B) OF Pompey
B) IF Goins
B) C couple of cheapo pickups to battle


SP) Price (8x$30m)
SP) Stroman
SP) 1 of Estrada QO OR Dickey option
SP) osuna/sanchez/hutch
SP) osuna/sanchez/hutch

RP) Cecil
RP) osuna/Sanchez/hutch
RP) xxxxxx (acquired by trading Revere)
RP) Hendriks
RP) Loup
RP) cheapo internal battle
RP) cheapo internal battle

Prioirty? Pitching, pitching, pitching!!!

Rotation: Stroman, Dickey, Hutchison, Sanchez, Osuna - I'll be shocked if that is actually the rotation come April but the closest prospect is probably Taylor Cole who is entering his age 26 season and has yet to go above AA. Conner Greene jumped from A to A+ to AA this year so he has a shot, Sean Reid-Foley is the kid to watch A/A+ and just 19 so he is 20 next year just like Osuna this year - that is assuming he figures out where the strike zone is. Other help has to come from free agency or trades. Expect a guy like Estrada / Happ to be here (someone who has skill but seems to be getting shifted into the 6/7th role).

Bullpen: Cecil, Lowe, Hendriks, Loup, Schultz, Tepera, Delabar with Osuna & Sanchez able to be shifted back. Expect a lot of AAAA types to be signed and given a shot in spring. I'd be shocked if AA goes and gets a 'real' closer though ($10+ mil a year guy).

Offense..
CA: Martin/Thole
1B: Smoak/Colabello
2B: Travis
3B: Donaldson
SS: Tulowitzki
LF: Revere or Saunders or Pompey or Carrera
CF: Pillar
RF: Bautista
DH: Encarnacion
IF: Goins, Pennington, Barney (no more than 2)
UT: Hague trying to make it somehow as are many others.

No areas that jump out as weak, maybe LF (but 4 guys for it), backup catcher, 2B if Travis is hurt still and Goins can't keep his bat semi-alive. Still, assuming AA is still here, one never knows what to expect after that Donaldson deal last winter. Maybe he'll get a young star for 1B.

Navarro is the only position player free agent. I assume he'll sign somewhere else. The rest of the position players are all under team control.

Obviously pitching is the focus. They'll probably have to sign at least one, maybe two free agent starters.

Btw, I'm thinking Pompey might be the LF next year.

I don't see anything to sort out about the infielders. Both Tulo and Travis are going to spend a lot of time on the DL. Goins is an excellent utility guy. They just need another backup in Buffalo and Kawazaki might be getting old.

I would try to sign Price and trade him after a year or two. I don't know if he wants a redo of the post-season. Is there a better team to be pitching for next year?

Bats was huge in those series. I think he plays is last year in RF and then walks. Hopefully far from the American East division.

Thole should be the backup and handle only Dickie.

 

I don't know that Smoak is really needed if Cola is given first base.
I'd rather have a contact bat that can put the ball in play and play third base like Hague.
Smoak's on base and slugging skills don't play much from the bench if he can only play first base.

Not a huge miss but Pennington is a FA as well.

I feel the exact same way as ugly as far as the o goes, except I'm not a huge Smoak fan. Starting lineup on point though.

The rotation, I'd love...

Price, Stro, Estrada, Osuna, Dickie. That would be my #1 choice.

Where indeed...

AA made the moves (partly) because of promises he'd made to Jose and Edwin. None of us wanted to waste their primes. I felt this year's team was absolutely loaded offensively and nearly as good defensively. As the season neared it's end I saw the team in sets of two. Jose and Edwin were the Latin Gods. Donaldson and Tulo were 'Merican Mashers and Pillar and Goins (but going forward) Travis were the Unsung Heroes. We had another two who I think warrant serious attention next year, Colabello and Hague, the Gods of AAA.

I think that: Jose, Edwin, Donaldson,Tulo, Pillar, Travis, Revere and Colabello are ALL well above average. Very few teams have EIGHT dangerous hitters. AA (and all of us) did not want to waste Jose's and Edwin's (and Eddies Parrot's) prime - CLEARLY - with EIGHT serious bats neither Alex, nor us, nor even Rogers management will want to waste this opportunity. (As to Saunders - I don't think a guy with almost NO cartilage in his knee is a long term solution for any sport with a 162 game schedule. Perhaps, darts...)

And - this opportunity can be wasted - IF we don't get 1) Pitching for the marathon 162 games and 2) Pitching for the short 5 to 7 game series' we need to win in the Post Season.

We don't need Price and Estrada. We do need something close however. I trust that AA will be looking for ways to TRADE for at least ONE mid-rotation starter. Preferably, one with several years of ownership. That means at least ONE starting near-Ace is going to have to be bought. I'd love it to be Price and I'd be nearly as giddy if it were Estrada. Needless to say, the use of Osuna/Sanchez is going to have a huge impact on what, and whom, we trade/purchase.

On the farm, my personal assessment, is that we have TWO seriously good prospects: Vlad (who is now being tried at 3rd {the position he "wants" to play}) and Alfrod (an Adam Jones clone only with more speed and more upside). I think there is a chance they will BOTH become "once in a generation" type guys.

Behind these two are another ELEVEN who I feel MAY become MLB regulars: Reid-Foley, Urena, Tellez, Greene, Maese, Smoral, Meza, Pruitt, Espada, McBroom and Perdomo. Of that ELEVEN by this time next year I'd be expect at least four or five to have made a breakthrough in their growth.

Just behind these are a few who could be serious except for the "but": Pentacost (can he recover and stay healthy), Harris (as a College guy he should come quick but has been a disappointment so far), Bourucki (what HAVE we got here), then there is a pack including: Smith/Dean/Robson/Lane/Wise/Davis/Smith/Bergen/Dawson - at least a few of these will "click" and move up.

Would you trade Vlad and Alford for a controllable Ace who might get us to the promise land for a two to three year span? AA might. If he is re-signed. I strongly suspect he will be.

This off-season all of us will debate every possible move and counter move that might be able to be made. Oh joy, oh thrill. The off-season - the ONLY time of the year we have as much input to the Jay's future as the 40 man roster does...

Is it April yet?

Copying this from the game 6 thread....

Just from my own lying eyes I don't think Jose is a good right fielder any more. He has a good arm but his speed is diminished and he seems to be poor going back on balls. He could be league average, and I have not looked at any stats, but to me if you send him back out to right next year be willing to have him make fewer plays than a good right fielder.

i don't think there's much doubt he had a bad year defensively. lots of that was his injury, some of that is that he was never a great glove guy and that's probably deteriorating with age. thing for me is that i wouldn't bail on him for one bad defensive injured year, especially because it seems like his athleticism, mobility, and now healthy arm are still there.

eventually he'll move off but i wouldn't make a permanent move quite yet.

AA has never been one to shy away from the big move. It is hard to convince players to sign in Toronto. I think he can talk Price to stay, but I think Estrada will be looking for a payout that the Jays may not be willing to give. EE and Bautista are both free agents next year and their stock is high. I can't see them signing Price and another pitcher and keeping both of these players.

So, they trade EE and Revere to away for some young prospects and young arms(like T. Walker). Then they flip prospects for Kimbrel. Now the jays have a solid vet in the bullpen, and a bunch of young very talented starters. KC and the Yankees are proof you need a good bullpen to win.

Here is the crazy move. Chris Davis signs for a year as a free agent to take EE's place. Collabello signs as well and Pompey is the starting left fielder (with Saunders as the backup). But.... all eyes are on Alford who shows how good of an athlete he really is and Vlady Jr. makes rumbling. The are forcing the Jays to make choices. Too many good outfielders coming up and not enough spaces.

This offseason, the Jays sign Bautista long term to retire as a Jay. This is his last season fulltime in the outfield and he plays more at first base/DH. The outfield is loaded with toolsy young guys. This becomes the new backbone of the team


So we will have next year
Pompey
DOnaldson
Bautista
Davis
Tulo
Martin
Pillar
Travis

Bench Goins, Collabello, Saunders, some vet

Starters (for the next 3-4 years)
Price
Stroman
Walker
Sanchez|Osuna
Hutchinson

Bullpen
Loup\Cecil\some other left hander
Osuna\Sanchez
Hendricks
Some vets looking for a second chance (??)
Kimbrel

This team is in tact for at least 2 more years. A dynasty is born.

Just putting it out there :)

Smoak was a serviceable starting-calibre player this year. And he's cheap. That’s exactly the kind of guy you want on your bench imo.

no need to gamble on some never has been when smoak is cheap enough. especially since you can have both him and hague anyways.

remember, we ended up needing a ton of games from projected bench/aaa (and trade upgrade) guys this year:

Pillar 628pa
Goins 428pa
Cola 360pa
Revere 246pa
Navarro 192pa
Carrera 192pa
Valencia 173pa
Pennington 92pa
Thole 52pa
Tolleson 45pa
Kawasaki 34pa
Barney 26pa
Diaz 16pa
Hague 15pa

Total: 2499pa

that's 2499 of 6232pa (40.1%) of our plate appearances that went to guys not projected as part of the starting lineup this year.

Everyone says the lineup will be back but the Jays need a couple of starting pitchers. Will they both be free agents or will AA trade someone to get a pitcher? Trade from strength to shore up your weaknesses.

Mark Shapiro is the new President of the Toronto Blue Jays starting at the same time Alex Anthopoulos' and Paul Beeston's contracts expire. As a long time GM before becoming President in his last job, I can't see him as being hands off with Player decisions and other GM duties. He'll likely try to do things his way and A.A. will do things his way. Shapiro previous moves indicate a mindset much different from A.A.'s and that doesn't fill me with confidence. Until A.A.'s future is determined, where this Team is going is unknown.

Another thing to consider is budget. Where that gets set is altered by this season, but whether it goes up or goes down is unknown.
Increased seating the last third of the season brought in increased revenues, maybe as much as $25.0 Million with everything considered.
MLB controls commercials during games, but a piece comes to the Teams and Rogers can set what prices they want for commercials during Pre-game and Post-game programming.
Six Home games at Playoff pricing is shared with MLB Each Team does it), but a major chunk goes to the Rogers. With Seating, Concessions, Programs and other stuff, chances are that amounts to around $60.0 Million.

Any future decision will depend on Budget and de facto GM. Basically PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING and more PITCHING is what they need and not 1B. A.A. does strange things at times.

Who to trade though?  EE has 10 and 5 and I don't know if you could ever trade Jose.  I could see him moving to first / DH in the future though, which might lead to EE leaving after next season as a FA.  Revere could net a bullpen arm, but I'd like him and Saunders both back - neither will get too much in arb and Saunders is a real wildcard coming back from a lost season.  Pompey can get more seasoning in AAA unless he forces his way onto the roster as an everyday player ... I don't want to see him on the bench.   

I feel like Thole to catch Dickey makes sense.  I can't see either of them back in 2017 but that's your best chance to get value out of Dickey and I suspect Thole still has enough OBP skills somewhere in him to be an adequate backup.  I'd like a quality third-stringer in AAA though.

Smoak still has value - even if just as a part-time platoon bat and defensive replacement - and will remain cheap in arb.  We really do need to see another good year from Cola to be sure his numbers weren't a BABIP fluke.   Burns could be a valuable utility guy and some combo of Diaz, Mune or a Tolleson-type (he seems to have alienated the club?) can ride the Buffalo shuttle. 

Two legit starters - a front end guy and a mid rotation type - along with Dickey, Stro and one of Sanchez / Hutch / Osuna leave us with a strong pen and rotation. 

That's the only need I really see, although if we can resign Lowe or another vet reliever at a low price, that'd be a nice move.  Uglyone has long ago convinced me we don't need to spend much on the pen.

My only concern is that AA tries to make trades to fill out the rotation - our prospect depth needs time to recover -  time to spend some of Rogers money!


 

Bautista - can't be traded without consent
Edwin - Can't be traded without consent
Tulo - Can't be traded without consent
Donaldson (you'd have to be crazy)
Travis - need him
Goins - need him, Tulo needs rest, Devo needs rest
Pillar
Revere
Pompey
Alford
Greene
Reid Foley
Pentacost

All the others (Colabello, Smoak, Dickey, etc) I don't think offer very much value to opposing teams with talent to sell.

Out of the listed players, the stars who would need to consent...why would any of them want to be traded away from such a strong team in a hitters environment? Especially Edwin and JBau in their walk years?

Revere and Saunders...you can't expect much return for them. Saunders is a question mark until he proves himself again and Revere will likely fetch something similar to what the Jays paid for him...prospects.


Pompey/Alford/Greene/Foley/Pentacost...now you're talking about your prospect capital...THIS is what you are trading away if you want that solid #2 pitcher coming back to the Jays, potentially a #1 if you combine enough of them.

Only other option I see, in my opinion, is if the Jays dangled Pillar who has insane value...remember that we didn't think he would cut it in mlb, but it came out at the deadline this past July that GM's all over MLB wanted Stroman and or Pillar last year, and AA made mention of the fact that they could have made the trades they made this year last year, if he had included a Stroman or Pillar...I'm sure it wasn't Pillar straight up, but he had value then and his value has only gone way up after this season.

So, Pillar is the guy to dangle or prospects or a combination of a Dickey/Revere/Saunders/Prospects


OR...you can sign two starting pitchers and a stud muffin for the BP and not give any of those guys.


One last thing...These A/AA pitchers that some are hoping will bust out in 2016...Osuna is the anomaly, he pitched professional AAA level pitching (Mexico) for years before going through the Jays system, so, he broke the mould, these other guys haven't.

Sometimes I wonder if Sanchez would be better if he spent as much time in the minors as Syndergaard, or was it simply a mistake the Jays made in who to trade or do the Mets develop SP better?

I'd opt for the buyout on Dickey. He turns 41 next week and for somebody who relies on a bit of velocity for an effective knuckler, there's too much risk of a drop-off to bank on him next year. Yeah, when his knuckleball dances it can still stymie hitters, but it became too hittable over the last few weeks to make me comfortable enough to feel his decline hasn't begun.

Freeing up Thole's roster spot is an added bonus.

Okay, it’s armchair GM season again. My take on the position player side of things:

3B, SS, DH, starting Catcher - No questions. Run your all-stars out there.

RF - I’m going to assume this is simply Bautista. Maybe his declining defence plays better in left, but whether he’s willing to move there or not doesn’t affect the decisions to be made on the other outfielders. And moving him to first just makes the roster construction more difficult.

2B - Expecting Devon Travis to continue to put up an OPS north of .850 isn’t realistic, but I do expect him to hit well enough to make Goins the backup middle infielder. And that’s what I’d do, as opposed to trading Goins. It makes sense to have a strong backup when your starters have some history of having trouble staying on the field. And Goins may be the primary 3B backup too, further increasing his potential playing time.

1B - Justin Smoak is an unimpressive ballplayer that I’d be quick to punt in most circumstances. But I think it’s possible that the Jays tender him and keep him around as a Chris Colabello insurance policy. Which is to say Colabello is the every day first baseman, but Smoak is around in case Chris runs out of pixie dust. But I’m a Cola believer.

LF / CF / 4th OF - My projection for Michael Saunders is something like .250/.320/.430 and a good chance of significant time lost to injury. That’s not worth much from a left fielder. I expect the Jays will offer him arbitration anyways, as it will be a non-guaranteed contract and he can be cut in spring training without big expense, if necessary. Having him around allows the team to consider trading an outfielder (quite possibly Saunders himself).

Assuming Saunders is gone one way or another, I’d start the season with Revere in left and Pillar in centre, with Pompey spelling them more often than a conventional 4th outfielder. I think Pompey is the biggest talent of the 3, but I think it makes sense to have him earn increased playing time. I’m concerned that Pillar may regress badly. I’m hopeful that Revere is energized by the winning environment (he was better in Toronto than he ever was for the terrible teams he played on in Philly and Minnesota).

Backup catcher - I expect Dickey to be back, and given that I’d simply keep Thole around as the backup catcher. He’s not very good, but he does handle Dickey well. That’s enough for this team.

Lost a longer post. Anyway, talk to Dickey to see if he'll take $1M buyout + 2/11. Same money (he'll be at $50M/career, probably doesn't need it that badly), with 2 chances for a WS ring instead of 1 - if he's honest, he'll admit the chances of a contract for 2017 aren't great at this point, especially with a strong team like the Jays. He can then start in the rotation in 2016 if needed and/or transition to a Wakefield-like role if we are able to build up the rotation with better starters. Might work for both sides. Frees up $5-6M over just straight picking up the option.

QO to Estrada, no question. If he accepts, see if Navarro will resign for a year at $3-4M. Try to sign Price - I think he's earned it.

Saunders - while I liked him as a player, he's a big question mark at this point. Especially because he tried to come back and had huge complications. Give him a honest try-out, but be prepared to call it a sunk cost. Too bad we couldn't do a swap-back to get the "on-fire-in-Pittsburgh" J.A. Happ back. Doubt anyone here ever expected to hear those words! Pencil Revere in as the starting LF. I think he earned it. Maybe rotate Revere/Pillar/Pompey (and Jose?) around to keep them all fresh.

While I love the colabello story, his performance is not sustainable. I'd love to see them get relievers for him and Smoak, move bautista to 1b, and have an of of pillar, Pompey, Saunders and Revere.

If I were Estrada I might think about going to wherever Navarro ends up. I hope the Jays pass on Estrada though, bad he's another guy with an unsustainable performance.

Tom Verducci has an interesting read at SI. He gives a lot of credit to the KC scouts. They knew when Price was going to throw his changeup, how to steal on him and of course, that Bautista would throw to second on a single.

Is it true that tulo can't be traded without consent? Has something changed since his trade to the jays, I thought that was without consent.

Trading him for a top flight starter would be the kind of unexpected move AA might pull off. I think Goins has earned a starting job.

Snider - Tulo contract he signed with the Rockies styated he could only be traded once - full no trade thereafter.

It's here:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/

But, if I understand correctly,  "full no trade" means "Tulo doesn't have to go anywhere he doesn't want to go". It doesn't mean "he can't be moved under any circumstances, even if he agrees", does it?

It's quite possible he's in "Mark Buerhle, 1st year after trade" mind-set, and would love nothing more than to go back to a US-based club, preferably in the NL he's quite familiar with.

Not saying that's where I think he's at, but it's possible. I'm pretty sure if both sides agree, he can be traded.

I did not know EE was not tradeable. It makes it a hard offseason.you almost need to put EE and Bautista at Dh/1st and move pompey into rf. Sign cola of course. This is pompey's year to make the team because next year Alford is coming.off there is no room for pompey, then he needs to be traded for pitching prospects.

Isn't it time the Jays have a Bench made of starters and not the usual 4A guys. Colabello and Smoak are starters, so one's on the Bench and one's at 1B. Goins is a starter with both Tulowitzki and Travis ahead of him, so he's on the Bench. Both Revere and Saunders are starters and play LF, so one's on the Bench. Unfortunately if you keep Dickey, you need Thole and he's not a starter. Makes all your decisions thougher doesn't it?

For those people who don't want to spend money on the Bullpen, I ask you a question. Who's got the better Bullpen, K.C. or Toronto and who is cheaper?

Toronto got very lucky this year with it's Bullpen, just not lucky enough. Osuna throws too many kinds of pitches and with as good a fastball as he's got, he should never be beat on a slider or any other secondary pitch. If he wants to stay a Reliever, he has to earn Closing not just be given it. At this point in the Team's evolution,special care should be put into acquiring the best Bullpen possible, not just use whoever's left.

I fully expect a surprise. AA likes having players who could be the best at their position. the only slots where that won't happen right now are LF, CF (unless he gets Trout by some miracle...hey he got Donaldson). Gets me thinking what superstar calibre players are available.

RF: Bryce Harper - no, really he might be as Washington is annoyed very much about their coming in 2nd and Harper has had his share of battles - cannot imagine what the Jays would need to give up to get him though, unless something weird is going on.
Yasiel Puig - lots of 'attitude' issues here. With his OPS+ dropping to 109 last year and his OBP down to 322 one wonders if LA might be feeling like they are hitting their limit and feel a need to do a major change after 3 straight playoff series losses.

Realistically do I think the Jays have a shot at getting either? No. But do I think both could be made available for the right price? Yup.

Hey, if the Jays really want a star OF Travis Snider is now a free agent :)

1) I like the ugly guy's idea about QO for Estrada.
No long term risk in case it was all a mirage.
2) I worry about Thole being the main backup over a long season.
If we do sign Price or similar FA and Estrada takes QO ...
then you can let Dickie & Thole walk.
3) Better get decent return for Revere to become so dependent on Saunders.
4) I thought we'd have more $$ next year without Navarro, Romero & Buehrle's hits but Tulo, Revere and Martin's bump & Donaldson's inevitable bump use it all up. We'll be forced to trade from a strength.

Well, you can't not subtract Reyes and also add Tulo's salary in there. Tulo's salary replaces Reyes'.

Mark Buehrle clears $19.0 Million.
David Price clears $7.123 Million.
R.A. Dickey clears $11.0 Million.
Dioner Navarro clears $5.0.Million.
Marco Estrada clears $3.9 Million.
Maicer Izturis clears $2.0 Million.
LaTroy Hawkins clears $.848 Million.
Josh Thole clears $1.75 Million.
That brings a total of $50.621 Million in salary obligations cleared for Free Agents. Who returns is another story. But that is a lot of money, and could be a whole lot of money with just a $10.0 - $15.0 Million salary/budget increase (to about $150.0 Million).

Tulowitzki, Martin, Bautista and Encarnacion (4) are expensive and earn $59.0 Million.

Osuna, Travis, Colabello, Delabar, Goins, Schultz, Hendriks, Stroman, Pillar and Sanchez (10) are really cheap and earn about $5.5 Million.

Donaldson (2nd Arb, super two), Revere (3rd Arb), Saunders (3rd Arb), Cecil (3rd Arb), Smoak (2nd Arb), Loup (1st Arb) and Hutchison (1st Arb) (7) are no longer cheap, but aren't expensive yet and should earn between $25.0 -$32.5 Million.

So 21 Players (7 RHP, 2 LHP, 4 OF, 1 C and 7 IF) are signed for around $89.5 - $97.0 Million. Needs are a 2nd Catcher, 2 Starters and a Reliever. With $53.0 - $60. 5 Million available ($150.0 million budget), things can get done.

He gives a lot of credit to the KC scouts. They knew when Price was going to throw his changeup, how to steal on him.

Or maybe, they're just stealing signals. I did not like the "man in white" routine. Both Price games were on their turf.

"subtract Reyes and also add Tulo's salary"
- oh yea - true - how could I forget.
I was looking at Baseball References salaries and wasn't seeing as much room as I liked:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015-payroll-salaries.shtml
If budget goes to 150 then yeah, room for Price and more and I like our chances.

The player personnel decisions depend on who occupies the management roles under Shapiro and what the budget is.

Hopefully 2015 provides the impetus for Rogers to treat the Jays as a large market club. We shall see.

I like Pompey perhaps more than most, and would be delighted if he had a full-timejob in April 2016. I also like Hendriks more than most and would be happy to see him as a fifth starter in 2016.

To me, putting Hendricks in the rotation would be a little like putting Wade Davis in the rotation. It didn't work, but he seems to have found a home in the pen, so why not leave it as it is.

Osuna, that's another story (to me).

Osuna has a lot of pitches and a big frame. To me, he is more suited for starting than the pen. Where, I like Sanchez in the pen, but he does deserve a chance to start. He did a decent job in that role last year. If it is true for both to start, then the money is spent on an ace and bullpen. Leave everything else in place(plus minus a couple bench roles)

I still like Hutch #5. He shows glimpses of being very good. But, he is a trade chip as well.

So is Pompey, but I think AA would never live it down if he flourished somewhere else.

What about trading Devon Travis and Pompey plus Connor Green for Sonny Gray?

Than resign Price and Estrada and trade Dickey and Thole for prospects.


Starting pitching:

Price, Stroman , Gray, Estrada and Hutchison.

Mike - Pompey full time? Replacing Revere in Left or Pillar in CF? I see Revere as the kind of lead off, slap hitter, on base guy, we hoped Reyes would be. As to Pillar, I see him as a pillar in CF for some time to come - or at least until Alford forces him out (should we be so lucky).

However, thinking about all that makes me think about Travis vs Goins at second. Goins has his otherworldly (most times) defense going for him and an occasionally adequate bat - while Travis has a (near) other worldly bat (for a second baseman) with an occasionally adequate (a bit better than that really) defense. I see Travis at second Tulo at short with Goins being the primary back-up. In fact I would like to try and turn Goins into a jack of all, infield and outfield, trades: like Zobrist. With Tulo's history of injuries I really think we need to have Goins available to replace him and it would be short sighted to get rid of Travis hoping Tulo will stay healthy. I think those three give us excellent coverage up the middle and a spectacular back up as will.

I mean, jensan, I guess the A's did trade Donaldson, so I guess I can't laugh off that trade that much, but ya.

My thoughts on the starting pitching…

Stroman - the only part of the rotation that’s perfectly settled. The only question is whether you try to buy out a year or two of free agency with a contract offer right now.

Price - he’s going to set a brand new record for total contract value for a pitcher, and with that comes an incredible amount of risk to the team that signs him. But I think the Jays have to be willing to accept that risk. The time is right to be spending cash, the team needs starting pitching and more starting pitching, and it’s not common for a top free agent to be willing to consider Toronto.

Dickey - With the number of pitching prospects traded away this past summer, and with 5 other decent-to-great pitchers potentially leaving as free agents, I think there’s no question that his option has to be picked up. His upside is not exciting, particularly given that he forces the team to choose between carrying Josh Thole or abusing Russ Martin - but if you send him packing what are you going to get for $11M that’s better for this team?

Estrada - give him a QO. I’m convinced he will not accept it. I’m much less sure about whether or not the Jays should pursue him on a multi-year deal.

Buehrle - it seems to be generally accepted that he pitched his way out of meriting a QO, and that he’ll either retire or run to some city that welcomes his pit bulls. But I’m not so sure. On the whole his 2015 was a pretty standard Mark Buehrle season. Maybe he has to be thought of as a 175-inning guy rather than Mr.200 now, but that’s still plenty valuable. The Jays could do a lot worse than Buehrle on a 1-year $16M contract.

Hutchison - It’s well past time for Hutch to prove he belongs in the big leagues, and by that I mean he needs to show he can dominate in the high minors. If he doesn’t start 2016 in Buffalo I’ll be very worried about the Jays pitching depth.

Osuna - I’d like to see him get a shot at the starting rotation, but I’d keep expectations modest. Some regression from 2015 is surely coming, and he’s very young.

Sanchez - Really unconvinced he has what it takes to be a starter, and the bullpen isn’t exactly over-crowded. Let him put up 70+ innings in the bullpen in 2016, and if they’re dominant then he can have a shot at being a starter in 2017.

Rumors are Baez, Scwarber plus a pitching prospect for Gray! So what is the difference

hahaha, exactly

Jonny's comments are as usual insightful. I had forgotten that Hutchison had only 6 successful high minors starts before his major league debut and none after his TJ.

Osuna has said that he would prefer to relieve. For a pitcher who has had TJ, I would be inclined to put a lot of weight on that. It does leave the club in the position of needing a bunch of starters.

In this manner , if it is not Gray , let it be someone else of this ilk, with lesser numbers of prospects. Maybe a Travis for Wheeler scenario to replace Murphy who is a free agent. If you wish to keep Pompey than include Anthony Alford.

With Gray trade and the trading of Dickey and Thole the team could have greater financial flexibility. The team could have a budget of $135 Million.

Signing Price for $30 MM, Estrada for $12 MM for three years, Navarro for 3 years at $4 MM a year. The rest of the team remains the same.

Than you can offer to extend Joey Bats 3 years at $20 MM a year and EE for 3 years $16 Million and be under $155 MM for 2017.

The big salary space is for 2017, so if the Jays sign any free agents they'll be back loaded to some degree ala Martin to give the Jays space.

I think the biggest question is do you try to trade Bautista or Encarnacion (I suspect both would accept a trade if they got an extension for mega bucks with it) or do you hold both for 2016 and see what happens next winter, or do you try to sign either/both now? I'd probably look at what both want, at least ask and then decide if you can work with it or not.

I don't think Bauitista or Edwin are looking for a big contract for 2016 when they can just wait a year or their big pay day.

And why not? They're on a great team with a solid chance to reach the playoffs..., they already make 12-15$ million each in their last year, and lastly, a guy like Bautista has been so good that there may be appeal for him to sign a friendly contract again to finish his career as a Blue Jay so he can chase down those records and get his name on the level of excellence.

If these guys weren't already two very wealthy players with one more year on a very good team then maybe they would jump at the chance to be traded before their walk year.

This offseason the Jays will clear $50.621 Million.
When it's added to the 2016 salary of $89.5 - $97.0 Million, the total is around $140.121 - $147.621 Million. This is approximately in the ballpark of last year's salary.
That leaves about $2.379 - $9.879 Million to reach a $150.0 Million budget. Or, in other words, they have $53.0 - $60.5 Million to spend depending on how much you sign your Arbitration Eligibles for.

What do you need? One Top Starter, one Top reliever and Backup Catcher are mandatory. And at least one of a Good Starter or a good reliever are necessary. Giving how much extra income has been earned going to $150.0 Million the next three years should be easy. During that time, another year like this should guarantee at least $150.0 Million for each of the next three subsequent years.

Mike, when did Osuna say that he would prefer to relieve? I thought for sure he said that he would prefer to start, after making the team in April, but he was just happy to be in the major leagues.

The Jays have a good chance to put together an elite team by removing some mediocre/questionable players and rounding out the remaining openings with free agents with the increased payroll flexibility they have. They should go for a $160 million payroll.

They should trade Dickey (you can get something back for 1 year of 200 innings eater for $12 million), and trade Revere and put in another big bat with in Left field. Non-tender Saunders.

They have a pretty good core...I put each player's salary in millions...I took a guess for arb eligible players as I don't have a good idea about how much they would get paid.

SS Tulo 20
C Martin 15
RF Bautista 14
DH Encarnacion 10
3B Donaldson 8
1B Smoak 3 (Bench)
CF Pillar 0.55
2B Travis 0.55
1B Cola 0.55
SS Goins 0.55 (Bench)
CF Pompey 0.55 (Bench)

SP Hutchison 2
SP Stroman 0.55
SP Sanchez 0.55

RHP Osuna 0.55
LHP Cecil 3.5
RHP Hendriks 0.55
RHP Schultz 0.55
LHP Loup 2

Buyout Izturis 1

Total approximately $84 Million spent on 19 players

Assuming $160 million budget, $76 million remaining for 6 players via free agency or trades.

LF (Big Bat with at least avg defence)
C (Bench)

SP (Ace)
SP (Mid rotation)

LHP (Closer/setup)
RHP (Closer/setup)

Frankly the main FA I hope the Jays sign this off season is AA. He's clearly easily in the top 1/3 of GM, and possibly much higher. He knows the Jays and has been doing a good job of finding value, improving the team in surprising ways, and doing it in a way that mostly isn't just for the short term but can build year-on-year.

Mike, when did Osuna say that he would prefer to relieve? I thought for sure he said that he would prefer to start, after making the team in April, but he was just happy to be in the major leagues.

“If I’m a setup man or just a reliever, I’m feeling pretty comfortable with that, because I like to pitch almost every day,” he said. “I don’t want to be a starter and pitch every fifth day.”

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-closer-roberto-osuna-nothing-but-iron-and-steel-on-the-mound

I can see Osuna having Carlos Carrasco upside as a starter. Not saying he'll ever reach that level, but his upside is too great especially at his age to relegate to a bullpen role. The problem will be how many innings he can throw in 2016. That's where the full season in the bullpen, regardless of how good it was, hurt the team. It will take two full seasons to stretch him out and he'll need to develop as a starter in the Majors since they likely won't send him down to stretch out. It will be tough for him but he seems to have the mindset to overcome that difficulty.

Sanchez has to stay in the pen, IMO. He's a reliever long-term and I'm fairly confident in that prediction.

I think you have to non-tender Saunders and bring him back on a minor league deal. Giving him $3 million plus coming off the type of injury he had would be a little rich, especially when Revere is there and far more likely to put up a 2 WAR season than Saunders. Start Pompey in AAA and then bring him up either when an injury hits or in September to prepare him for a starting role in 2017.

I'm not a fan of re-signing Price. He will get a record or near record contract, and at his age and workload, that would be a huge risk.

I agree with giving Estrada the QO instead of Buehrle. I would have given it to Buehrle two months ago but the way he finished out the year seems to suggest he's either hurt or near the end of his career, so unless AA is very confident that Buehrle can be Buehrle in 2016, I'd pass on giving him the QO. Estrada seems like a good candidate to give it to though.

Nice season - have some quibbles about the post-season managing but I'm still on a high from last Monday, so I'll pass. In the Jays fans euphoria during the 2012 winter season, I wonder how many thought that Syndergaard & d'Arnaud would make the world series before Dickey!

Regarding 2016:

- It's going to take at least a Max Scherzer type contact and I think the last 4 yrs. will be an anchor on the team, so for that reason I'm out on Price.

- I hope the team doesn't go into 2016 with Bautista/EE as potential FA because as with the Orioles this year, it's likely to be a distraction especially if the team starts slowly - either extend/move them and while I'm okay with either direction, if I were the GM, I'd be inclined to listen & move them if a good deal comes along - It's likely going to take around 35mil combined to extend them and in the last 2 yrs. the lineup has added solid/controllable RHB in Donaldson/Tulo/Travis/Martin/Colebello/Pillar and I would like a little LHB balance. Both JB/EE have 10/5 rights but I think if a contending team is interested in acquiring & extending them (ala the Halladay trade) then I think they would say yes - jays could use those assets to then acquire a quality pitcher (eg. Carrasco/Ross)

Outfield - Saunders/Pillar/Pompey/veteran short term bat - Byrd/Parra/Chris Young etc. - I am not a fan of Ben Revere and think his best asset - speed - would best be utilized in a big park like Seattle/San Diego.

Infield - Donnldson/Tulo/Travis set - I think the jays will go with an inexpensive/reclamation option at 1B, if Smoak comes back that's fine but also guys like Alonso/Morrison who are likely non-tender candidates and who's power may play up in the dome.

Rotation:
1 - Stroman
2- Established starter,likely FA - Leake/Kazmir/Zimmerman
3 - Controllable/upside starter, likely trade - Tyson Ross/Carlos Carrasco/Danny Salazar etc. - I don't think Gray is moving after the backlash from the Donaldson trade.
4- Dickey - not much trade value but a solid 200 innings
5- young/upside - Hutchinson/Sanchez/Osuna/Paxton

I would have the losers of the #5 slot start in Buffalo, but I suspect that Osuna will remain the closer because the jays couldn't acquire a replacement.

BP - Osuna/Cecil/Loup/Hendriks plus

Bench - Thole(if Dickey is back)/Goins/veteran outfielder & cheap multi-positional player Berti/Burns/Kelly etc.

One final note - more times than not, the team that wins the winter season - Boston, San Diego in 2015, Toronto in 2012 etc. usually doesn't win the following summer season.

I think the lineup is pretty much set.

The backup catcher needs to be filled, but I think there's a good chance Navarro comes back in the same role he was last year - I don't think there's any other teams where he's going to be the starter. Non-tender Thole.

In the infield I'd keep Colabello / Smoak pair together. EE DHs. I think you keep both Goins and Travis given the injury that Travis had this year and the somewhat inevitable 30 games that Tulo will miss. Donaldson is obviously locked in (let's stay away from the extension after the MVP season).

In the OF, I'd go with Bautista, Pillar and Pompey with Carrera as the 4th OF. I'd non-tender Revere (estimated salary of $6.7 million); he was terrific down the stretch, but it's largely BA-driven success; there's better uses for that money. I'd punt on Saunders too, unless he's willing to take around $2 million.

Starters -
Price's bar is going to be the Scherzer contract - do you punt $60 million 5 years down the road for the chance to win next year?

Stroman.

I'd bring back Dickey on his option; that's market value for 200 innings with no long term risk.

Estrada gets a qualifying offer to try and scare teams away; I think he's going to do really well either way this offseason and I'd feel comfortable with 4 years.

Hope for a bounce back with Hutchison.

Give Sanchez a shot knowing you have a fallback in the pen.

Pass on Buehrle - I think he's toast now.

Bullpen:
Osuna (let's be realistic, he's never going back to the rotation) Cecil, the cast of current 2nd rate relievers (Hendriks, Loup, Schultz, Tepera), and probably a free agent or two.


Bottom line:

The Jays need to come up with 3 starting pitchers that they can feel good about starting playoff games. Right now they have one under contract.

Prior to signing any free agents I have the Jays right at $100 million. The good thing is that there's a lot of pitching available this offseason, but two starters will probably eat up $40 million if you're going mid-to-high end.

The real decisions are going to come a year from now when Bautista and EE are free agents. Qualifying offers are easy decisions (provided they don't significantly regress in 2016) but mid-30s hitters who can fall off a cliff at any time are scary. Getting ahead of myself??

I feel pretty comfortable saying that there's no chance in hell the Jays trade Bautista and Encarnacion coming off their first playoff appearance in 22 years. Not saying it's right or wrong, but the optics of it would be terrible.

If Osuna is in the pen next season and Sanchez is starting, I'd be disappointed. I know Osuna likes coming out of the pen based on his quotes, and Sanchez has been vocal about preferring to start, but that doesn't mean those are the roles they should have. What they want and what's best for them/the team are not necessarily the same.

Decisions have to be made regarding the FO (AA) and budget. These decisions will be made very soon or already made and not yet announced. The budget will be vague as usual.

We will be interested in everyone regarding player acquisitions as usual. Denials will happen. Lastly if you hear about it then it will not happen.

This is already a very strong team, so 2016 should not be wasted. The Jays are popular now and if they can win during the regular season then a lot of $ will flow in. I do not see ownership wasting that opportunity.

This has all been mentioned as quite obvious. If we lose Price, Buehrle & Estrada then something has to be done to compensate. Stroman, Hutch, Osuna and Sanchez all have something to offer. They are young and strong. Dickey helps out the rotation. Unfortunately none is a proven Ace and I suspect that we will not be able to acquire an Ace in the off season. So I am hoping that one of our young pitchers steps up. Probably Stroman.
The pen is weak without a strong top 3 there. IMO if Osuna and Sanchez are in the rotation then only Cecil qualifies as a top 3. We definitely need depth in starters and relievers.

The new/old GM is going to look bad if the team goes back to being a middle of the pack team in 2017 and beyond. The flow of $ will also be reduced. That is a very high priority as well.

Personally, I'd be inclined to leave both Osuna and Sanchez in the pen- Osuna because that is his preference and Sanchez because that is where he is (in my view) best suited to be.  With Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil and Loup in the pen, you only need small additions but there is one huge gap in the rotation.  I'd try to fill it with three league average starters behind Stroman, and then Hendriks in the five slot and Hutchison in Buffalo as the #6 starter.  I have a lot of confidence in Stroman.

The 2016 Marcel projections are already out and are on BBRef player pages.  They list Estrada as having a 3.77 ERA in 151 innings, and Dickey as having a 4.10 ERA in 189 innings.  On the other hand, they have Stroman throwing only 80 innings next year- Marcel is only a monkey!

i'll say it flat out - trading bautista and Encarnacion, 2 of the top 10 hitters in baseball, on bargain deals and with ownership of the team and no desire to leave - is not just wrong, but crazytalk.

Very few players are untradeable.  The question is always: for whom?  Let's imagine that new management in Cleveland has a hankering to get rid of Corey Kluber who went 9-16 last year and is willing to take Jose Bautista off your hands in exchange.  You'd have to think about that, wouldn't you?

I'd love to see Osuna as a starter in the future -- but I'm not sure how realistic this is, unless the Jays are really willing to increase his workload beyond normal parameters.

Tom Verducci publishes an annual "year after effect" article that looks at pitchers who have significantly increased their workloads year-over-year and how that might lead to injuries: http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/02/03/year-after-effect-madison-bumgarner-yordano-ventura

In general, teams don't like to see pitchers increase their innings by more than 25-30 per year. Per the article, the Blue Jays are on the aggressive side and prefer to cap increases to no more than 30% more than the previous season.

If Osuna follows this principle, this means he won't be an "uncapped" starter until 2019! If you increase his workload by 30% each year:

2015: 78 IP (includes post-season)
2016: 101 IP (= 20 starts of 5 IP each)
2017: 132 IP (= 26 starts of 5 IP each)
2018: 171 IP (= 32 starts of 5-6 IP each)
2019: 223 IP (= full "uncapped" starter).

So the big question with Osuna is whether we want him to:
a) Continue as our closer for the next 3-4 seasons with an unlimited workload.
b) Use him as a starter, but accept an innings caps for the next 3 seasons.
c) Use him as a starter and not worry about his innings too much, but accept a higher chance of injury (and a 2nd TJ surgery). This is clearly the "win now" option.

Tough choice. I'd really like to understand the Jays philosophy on this... Osuna is a big, strong, mature pitcher that seems capable of taking on an increased workload... so do you maximize his potential now? Or maximize his long-term value?

IMO having 2 aces at the top of the rotation makes it much easier to fill out the rest of the rotation with competence. I also think Price is the only FA who is both a true Ace and a guy who can be expected to be reasonable healthy and consistent.

So I give Price the 8×$30m, but not sure i approach those numbers for anyone else.

And even with my confidence in his health and consistency, I still write off his last 3-4yrs as anchors. I just think that 3-4yrs of wasted $30m is well worth the 4-5yrs of legit contention this core can give us. Assuming both bautusta and EE re up for 3-4yrs apiece, then this core's window should collectively last 4-5yrs. by that time donaldson/tulo will be mid 30s and joey/ee late 30s, and all their contracts will be expiring, giving us a natural end to that window.

now i guess we could get lucky and transition right into a new contending core right away but imo more likely we'd be in for a bit of a rebuild at that point and being forced to carry price's deal for a few years during a rebuild isn't something 5o worry about

Here is a question for you all. The number I hear for Estrada is 4-5 years at 12-15 million a year. (Best case 4 years at 48 million, worst case 5 years for 75 million). Would you do this?

That is a hard one for me. I would probably do it, only after making sure I spent all I could on Price first.

First order of business has to be AA. I don't know how you justify not trying to re-sign him after this year.

One area this team might struggle in the off-season, is how do you convince the fans that your team will be better next year? Other than bullpen, there's not a lot of obvious things to be upgraded. If you don't re-sign Price/Estrada it's hard to argue your pitching will be better, but if you do re-sign them you're extremely close to bringing back the identical team again.

Keeping Osuna in the pen longterm would be nothing less than criminal, imo. Remember, based on his milb age and level performance there was a good argument that he was our best prospect of the last few years - better than sanchez, norris, syndergaard, stroman, etc. etc. Now this doesn't necessarily have to be next year, as he's only 21, and could still use work on his slider, but that absolutely has to be the plan longterm. As an aside, the way the jays managed to have him develop and improve his slider over the course of the year was one pretty great - usually the move to the pen means abandoning the extra pitches, but he consistently worked it in and it clearly improved over the course of the year.


Cracka -

1. the verducci effect has largely been discredited afaik.
2. looking at Osuna's listed pro innings is probably completely misleading. he's been pitching his whole life, logging all sorts of innings in various amateur and semi pro winter leagues, showcases, and extended spring training. there's really no way the innings listed on his stats page represent what he's actually thrown.

taken from another board:

End of season presser today:

Shi Davidi ‏
AA says long-term Sanchez and Osuna viewed as starters, but possible they're kept in relief in 2016 depending on options

AA on Marco Estrada: We're going to do everything we can to bring him back here. #BlueJays

AA: "We have strong interest in David (Price) being back here." What that means, he adds, is less certain. Thinks "we'll be in the game."

AA says RA Dickey has put himself in good position to have his option picked up.

AA says planning for 2016 continues despite his uncertainty, got ideas


Mike Wilner ‏
AA: Our offensive team is intact, but we won't be complacent. If we see opp. to improve, like Martin over Navarro, we will. #Bluejays #Jays

AA: Not my area to comment on future payroll, but great to see attendance, TV numbers up. #Bluejays #Jays

AA: We have less to do now than we did a year ago. We'll have some financial flexibility and we have fewer needs. #Bluejays #Jays

"Here is a question for you all. The number I hear for Estrada is 4-5 years at 12-15 million a year. (Best case 4 years at 48 million, worst case 5 years for 75 million). Would you do this?"

I would not, but i think AA would.

I also think Price is the only FA who is both a true Ace and a guy who can be expected to be reasonable healthy and consistent.

ugyone, Zack Greinke opted out of his contract and will be a free agent whenever free agency begins.

Summary in my perspectives and my few ideas within

1) leadership
First order of business has to be AA. I don't know how you justify not trying to re-sign him after this year.

Mark Shapiro is the new President of the Toronto Blue Jays starting at the same time Alex Anthopoulos' and Paul Beeston's contracts expire. As a long time GM before becoming President in his last job, I can't see him as being hands off with Player decisions and other GM duties. He'll likely try to do things his way and A.A. will do things his way. Shapiro previous moves indicate a mindset much different from A.A.'s and that doesn't fill me with confidence. Until A.A.'s future is determined, where this Team is going is unknown.

How has the Shapiro-AA relationship gone so far based on sources from the media ?

2) Money
That leaves about $2.379 - $9.879 Million to reach a $150.0 Million budget. Or, in other words, they have $53.0 - $60.5 Million to spend depending on how much you sign your Arbitration Eligibles for.

3) roster depth
What do you need? One Top Starter, one Top reliever and Backup Catcher are mandatory. And at least one of a Good Starter or a good reliever are necessary. Giving how much extra income has been earned going to $150.0 Million the next three years should be easy. During that time, another year like this should guarantee at least $150.0 Million for each of the next three subsequent years.

remember, we ended up needing a ton of games from projected bench/aaa (and trade upgrade) guys this year. that's 2499 of 6232pa (40.1%) of our plate appearances that went to guys not projected as part of the starting lineup this year. Accounting only part time and bench players, still about 1020pa (about 20%) went to guys not projected as part of the starting lineup this year

Colabello and Estrada were picked up and performed well unexpectedly so having depth in AAA or AA is crucial.

Could Dickey and Thole be traded away ? Bautista be moved to LF ? Pillar to RF ? Revere to CF ? Pompey play in Buffalo and Toronto until he is ready ? When he is, he would displace Revere. Carrera as the back up ? Goins as the backup and man the 2B with Travis ? Saunders start 2016 in Buffalo ? If Estrada leaves team in trade, Navarro can go with him. If Colabello becomes a trade-away asset, Hague will take his place and backup Smoak and Donaldson. Sell Kawasaki to Japan ? Sell Pennington to other MLB teams ?

4+1 men bench
IF Goins/Travis
OF Carrera + Pompey/Chris Dickerson allows JoeyBats play some 1B very occasionally.
C Navarro/Thole/other (Kottoras ?)
3B/1B Hague

In Buffalo, a few IF young players may be ready by the end of 2016: Burns, Schrimpf, Dominguez

-----------------------------
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_trn&lid=117&sid=t422

Free agents:
Barney, Redmond, Tolleson,

A few random ideas:
1) Trade Colabello and Pennington to the Indians for Carlos Santana and Mike Aviles, Mike Martinez. Aviles to the Buffalo. Navarro and Thole will be gone. Martinez is the new Jays' Pennington and starts in Buffalo. Santana is the upgraded Navarro. Hague is the new Jays' Colabello, backing up Donaldson and play 1B with Smoak.

2) Bring a few late 20s, early 30s Bisons players to play some games. Danny Dorn, Kottaras, Mesa, Dickerson. No risk to losing them to other teams but surprises are proobable cf. Colabello, Carrera, Hague, Schultz.

2.1) Sign a few late 20s, early 30s potential MLB player to Buffalo, cf. Hague.

I think / hope Smoak will be gone after this year. He had a few good moments, but overall it was painful to watch him hit (seems like he just can't figure out the curveball) and clearly lost the trust of Gibbons in the playoffs for anything but defensive replacement purposes. I'd rather carry someone with a bit more versatility.

I read this today
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/quick-hits-dodgers-klentak-vlad-jr-dbacks.html

I did not realize that they were thinking that Vlady Jr. would be a corner infielder\DH and maybe outfielder. Hmm... With EE and Bautista getting older, it does create a log jam at 1st\DH if they are able to extend them.

So, I do think we will continue to see Smoak\Cola for at least one more year.

If Vlad Jr can play 3B all the better. It'll be a few years till he is ready and by then Donaldson will be moving towards free agency so it would be nice to have a new star for 3B. Worst case, move him to LF or 1B or DH as a good 3B should be able to handle any of those 3.

First, how many starters do you need?

Second, how many dollars do you have to spend?

Third, divide the dollars by the number, that is your average spend.

Fourth, decide if you want, for example, two $10m pitchers or one $20M one and a $1M one.

Fifth, can you find the pitchers that you want to take your dollars.

I think the Jays have to go after both Price and Estrada, with the goal of getting at least one of them, if not both.  It's notoriously difficult to persuade free-agent pitchers to come to Toronto -- it's seen as a foreign city, where you have to pitch in a hitter's park, in the highly competitive AL East -- so why shouldn't the Jays target two free-agent pitchers who are already very comfortable in Toronto?  You probably save $5-million or $10-million (if not more) because you don't have to top the offers of every other team.  You can just match the best offer of your rivals, or maybe even get a bit of a discount.  And let's be honest: even if you top the next-best offer for a free-agent pitcher, a lot of these guys just don't want to pitch in Toronto, no matter how good your offer is.  So it would make a huge amount of logic to go after two good pitchers who already like Toronto and who are already confident that they can be successful as pitchers here.  Of course the Jays should also scour the rest of the market and see who's available and who might be interested in coming to Toronto, but certainly Price and Estrada should both be among the key targets.  Estrada gets a QO as part of this negotiating process, of course, to help deter some of the other bidders, but I'd rather have Estrada than a draft pick.  The Jays have already made it clear that they want Estrada back, which tells me that their scouts have concluded that he's not just a one-year mirage -- that he has made significant improvements to his delivery in 2015 that will allow for long-term success. Estrada has also told the Jays that he wants to come back (according to AA today), and I would interpret that as more than just a giddy moment of bonhomie in the style of Melky Cabrera at the end of last season.  It makes sense that Estrada would want to return to an organization (and a set of coaches) where he has had the best success of his career.  I also think the Jays will try to sign Navarro to a contract for 2016, which would be another boost to their chances of signing Estrada, since Estrada knows that he pitches better to Navarro than to most other catchers who are out there.  (From the Jays perspective, Navarro is as good as most other back-up catchers in the league, and he likes it in Toronto and has done well here, so why not keep him?)   Finally, if the Jays can afford $200-million or even $250-million for David Price, it seems to me that they can afford one-quarter or one-fifth of that amount to lock up Estrada to a long-term deal. Estrada pitched like a #2 starter in the regular season and in the playoffs; even if he regresses somewhat in the future, he's still worth keeping.

As for the rest of the rotation, I think the Jays should bring back Dickey as the #4 or #5 starter and leave one or two positions open in spring training for a competition among Osuna, Sanchez, Hendriks and Hutchison.  I wouldn't expect Hutchison to win that competition, but of course he should be given a shot at it.  If he doesn't make the rotation, let him pitch in Buffalo as the 6th starter.  I'd expect that either Osuna or Sanchez will be back in the bullpen for 2016, or possibly even both, but again they should be given a chance at the rotation.

If the Jays can't sign Price, there should still be money available in the payroll for a free-agent starter.  The payroll has got to be healthy in 2016, now that the Jays have proven to the owners that they will generate a huge amount of additional revenue if they are successful on the field. A trade for a starter is also possible, perhaps with Revere or Saunders as part of the deal, plus one or two prospects -- although I'd really be reluctant to trade more prospects at this point.

Kasi, I think AA agrees with your point about the desirability of adding another LHB in the starting lineup to create more balance. He said as much today. Perhaps we'll see a trade for a 1B to upgrade on Colabello/Smoak, although I'm also comfortable with keeping that duo for 2016.

I think it's crucial that the Jays don't neglect their bullpen in the off-season, because the bullpen was such an area of weakness in the first half of 2015 and ultimately in the final round of the playoffs too.  They need another good LHP to supplement Cecil -- they can't count on Loup to be that guy any more.  They also need more depth in the bullpen because they're losing Lowe and Hawkins from the top 7 and they could be switching Osuna or Sanchez or Hendriks to the rotation.  I understand AA's point that a lot of the free-agent relievers are overpriced and overrated, but the Jays have to make more of a push to enter the season with a strong bullpen, rather than just waiting to the trade deadline to shore it up then.  Perhaps one spot in the bullpen can be reserved for a marginal guy who has a good spring training (Tepera or Schultz or whomever) but I don't like the idea of giving 2 or 3 bullpen positions to those marginal guys.  I think the Jays have to target someone on the free-agent or trade market to ensure that the bullpen is as strong as possible.

So, to summarize:  try to sign Price and Estrada (or at least one of them at a minimum); bring back Dickey; sign or trade for another starter if they can't get Price; acquire one or two good relievers; sign Navarro; consider an upgrade at 1B; and allow a spring competition for a rotation spot for the best of Osuna, Sanchez, Hendriks or Hutchison.

I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. Vlad Jr is 16 years old. A LOT can happen between now and his ML debut, whenever that may be.

Those are pretty much the questions, Gerry.  I'd add that it might be possible to trade Revere, say, for an average starting pitcher scheduled to make $7-8 million or so in arbitration.  In other words, to make a value for value trade similar to Gose-Travis from last off-season.  If you are able to pull that off and decide to bring back Dickey (and Thole), it does (potentially) leave quite a bit of cash available for one or two other pitchers.

Or another example, a Lind for Estrada type deal.

Or another example, a Lind for Estrada type deal.

True, that one turned out well - in hindsight. In foresight, NO ONE thought we would get HALF this much production out of ME. And, regardless of his issues, we really COULD use a Lind-type LH power bat.. or two..

According to Lott, Tulo never "settled in" with the Jays and is still somewhat in shock that he was traded. I think it was somewhat visible - defense doesn't really go into a slump much, but offense does, and his defense was fine (when not hurt), but his offense never seemed right. Here's hoping either he settles in/adjusts over the offseason, or if he doesn't think he can, makes it clear to AA/whoever and gives us permission to trade him somewhere where he IS comfortable. It would be really, REALLY bad to have him permanently be a 700 OPS player @ $20M/year.

The National Post article was mostly about Tulo's continued feelings of hurt and shock over being traded from Colorado, but it didn't suggest in any way that Tulo would be more comfortable on another team.  The article made the point that Tulo didn't feel "settled" in Toronto because he's only been a Blue Jays for less than half a season.  But the article didn't suggest that he would feel more settled anywhere else.  And on the positive side, the article quoted Tulo as saying that he was looking forward to 2016 because the threat of a trade wouldn't be hanging over his head any more -- he would arrive at spring training knowing that he would be a Jay for the whole season, he wouldn't have the stress of the trade rumors and controversy hanging over his head any more.  I think it's reasonable to expect that Tulo will hit better as he feels more comfortable in Toronto, and he will increasingly feel comfortable in Toronto after the playoffs and spring training with the team.

I don't see how the Jays could trade him at this point.  They're committed to him long-term.  It would be extremely difficult for the Jays to trade someone who is owed that much money anyway, but -- more importantly -- it is very likely that Tulo improves to something closer to his career norms next season. One positive sign, for example: in the ALCS, his OPS was .826.   A small sample size, to be sure, but then his regular-season Jays numbers are also a small sample size in relation to his career numbers. 

What about the turf at RC? Has it improved or will it hurt Tulo?

As somebody point out earlier, even Tulo at his career road numbers would be solid.

wOBA .350
wRC+ 116
OB%/SLG 347/462

And, the Rockies players generally have a "Coors handover" effect on the road, where their numbers are generally worse on the road than they should be.

He's one of the best SS's in the league, he's not going anywhere.

The situation with Estrada is not entirely dissimilar from the situation with Bautista before AA decided to extend him: mid-career journeyman makes an adjustment and has a year of excellent performance before becoming a free agent.

Do you judge him based on the one year of good performance or the many years of mediocrity that preceded it?

In this situation the thing to do is decide if the player has changed something that would appear to make the improvement sustainable. I think the major change to Estrada's approach - working up in the zone with his fastball - qualifies as a substantive change that means his future performance is likely to have more in common with his results after his adjustment, and therefore make his improvement sustainable. Extend the man! Four years 50 million will look really good in four years.

IMO there's a huge difference between Bautista and Estrada. Estrada reached his results with a lot of noise and IMO there's a safe bet that he doesn't put up the same BABIP & therefore ERA next year. His K% & BB% are pretty established by now, but can he continue to thrive off of those peripherals?

David Price has kept himself basically healthy and in good shape. I'm convinced he's good for at least 3-4 years at his Peak and at least another 1-2 as Front Rotation stuff. if he can be as effective as Mark Buehrle for the balance of his deal, he's a bargain at any price.

Offer 3 years, $100.0 Million with an opt-out. Or with the option of continuing with the Jays for another 3 years at $100.0 Million with another opt-out. Or with an option year at $25.0 Million with $10.0 Million buyout, followed by and option year at $20.0 Million with a $7.5 Million buyout, followed by an option year at $15.0 Million with an $5.0 Million buyout.

That will sign him if he really wants to stay. And keep him for as long as we want. He will earn a minimum of $100.0 over three years and then possibly trying for more, or earning a minimum of $210.0 Million over 6 years, setting a new record in earnings. As long as he's effective, I'd keep him.

Estrada I'd make a QO to just to play it safe as $15 mil for him for one year is high but a heck of a lot safer than 3 years at $30+ as I don't trust him to keep this up. He might, but he is one of those guys you just let prove his value to you year in year out for a bit and if someone wants to blow $45 mil on him so be it we'll take the draft pick.

Price is a no-compensation guy and you try to keep him but AA will have to be very inventive to make that one work. The good thing is Price sounds from his twitter posts like he sees himself as a Jay through and through at the moment. Might just be standard marketing 101 but hints that he would not need a big premium to stay vs signing another free agent.

I think to figure it out you have to figure out Who are the free agent pitchers not just this offseason, but the next few. This is a really good window for the Jays both with their core talent and with the state of the division, and as shown with the sell outs and TV ratings, having a truly winning team makes a big difference. If there aren't likely to be top shelf free agents next year, then you make sure you get even more this year. If there are then you can settle for only one top shelf guy this year.

I'd say pick up Dicky's option and QO for Estrada (4/12.5 is fair, but I'd rather do 1 15). I think you QO Buerhle too just in case (even if you expect him to retire). That's just the going price for that mid/back rotation innings eater. And with our offense, mid/back rotation will play. And then you go after the elites.

Price for 7x$30. Greinke for 4x$30. Davis for 5x$25 (you don't really need Davis this year, although a left handed bat is nice, but if you don't resign one or both of EE or Batista after this next season then someone like Davis past this year is great to fill in that production). If you are cheap you do none of these 3 (nor anything else similar). If you are "normal" you do 1 of these 3 (or similar). If you are aggressive you do 2 of the 3 (and probably have budget for nearly that, for that if you backload contracts past this year).

But if the Jays did all of that (including Dicky, 1 year $15 M for Estrada, and all 3) I think they'd come in just under $200M. Or below the average of the Yankees the last 10 years. Dodgers are up around $270M last year. I don't think we have to pretend that the Jays can only do $150M. That might where they choose to live, but the Jays would be very profitable with a winning team at $200M IMHO.

Ok, enough dreaming. More likely there are some under the radar dealings and we get at least one guy, but might just be Estrada, and the 2nd biggest move is something like Darren O'Day to a 3x5 or 2x6 or something like that contract or Matt Thornton to a 1x5 or 1x5 + option or something that helps the bullpen.

Well if Rogers has promised Shapiro final say on player personnel moves, say hello to GM Andrew Tinnish.

Here's JP Ricciardi talking to David Laurilia on the building of the Mets. It's awfully generous of him to describe the Dickey/Syndergaard-d'Arnaud trade as a win-win, but I still see the hint of a smile on Jonah Hill's face when that trade is mentioned.

"Estrada reached his results with a lot of noise and IMO there's a safe bet that he doesn't put up the same BABIP & therefore ERA next year. His K% & BB% are pretty established by now, but can he continue to thrive off of those peripherals?"

It is a legitimate concern, but when you look at the breakdown of his batted balls in play (extreme low line drive rate and extreme high flyball rate) it is reasonable for him to have an abnormally low BABIP. If you believe that is luck then certainly be concerned, but the fact that his fastball has the least vertical drop of any pitcher in the league provides a logical explanation for the result. And the fact that vertical drop is a skill based on spin rather than velocity makes it more likely to be sustainable into his late 30's.

It is always hard to know when to believe improvement, and when to expect regression. I think for many years consensus swayed too far towards believing every season with a low ERA or lots of RBIs. But I think it's possible now that we have gone too far back the other way.

Interestingly, the starting pitcher with the highest line drive rate is also a now free agent blue jay...

I like many Jay's fans am very optimistic about 2016 at the moment.

I have no idea as to what will actually happen in the off season. I hope nothing bad happens. Most years I expect/hope that the team improves. This off season that is probably wishful thinking.

Still from the trade deadline until clinching the AL East this team was incredible,playing well over .600 ball. Probably more. So I am expecting 90+ wins in 2016 and a playoff position.

I agree with Ishai that Estrada has a unique profile and could represent some Bautista-like value in re-signing.  Plenty of articles at Fangraphs all year talked about how his tendency to induce pop-ups and his seemingly unique ability to limit line-drives allow him to outperform his projections.  A recent article by August Fagerstrom (heck of a name) includes this:

"Estrada drops nearly 11 mph off his four-seam fastball with every changeup, giving him the largest difference of any right-handed starter in baseball. But we can take this a step further! There can be more to getting separation than just speed. There’s movement, too.

The best fastballs, usually, have good “rise.” When we talk about rise, we’re not talking about literal rise, of course, but instead the ability to resist gravity with backspin. The best changeups, usually, have good drop. Estrada’s four-seam fastball has the most “rise” of any starting pitcher in baseball. The changeup doesn’t have particularly great drop, but given the fastball’s rise in confluence with the velocity gap, there’s still a pretty good package here."

I think it's entirely reasonable to assume that, if the Jays internal evaluations are consistent with this, they might be more comfortable bucking the standard assumptions about sustainable BABIP and re-signing Marco, and it seems equally plausible that Estrada would want to stick with the team that has apparently helped unleash his full potential - a winning team that wants him to play a key role. 

As for starting alternatives, I like Grienke if we can't get Price, but he's getting lots more than 4 yearsx30 million.   

my issue with Estrada is about risk. maybe he is an outlier, but i'd rather get a guy with less red flags on his resumé, especially as it appears he won't be coming as any sort of bargain.

yeah i don't see estrada as comparable to bautista at all.

bautista's breakout year was elite in every way and shape. there were no red flags other than the fact he hadn't done it before.

Sign Zimmerman plus one of Price or Greinke, put Stroman/Sanchez/Hutch in the rotation with some help in AAA. Non tender Dickey, offer on Estrada but let him sign elsewhere...that right there will give you over 30 million savings a year for one of the aces after you factor in Thole and Navarro's cuts. Clear out Smoak and you're easily over 30 million.

Career as SP

Estrada: 99gs, 5.9ip/gs, 3.93era, 4.27fip, 4.12xfip, 3.88siera, 2.2fwar/32gs, 2.7ra9war/32gs

that's probably a solid description of his true talent - i.e. a quality #4 SP - with the caveat that his track record is so inconsistent that it's hard to depend on the average line.

Price for 7x$30. Greinke for 4x$30.

Why is Greinke signing for $90 less than Price again? IMO Greinke will get the same contract that Price gets.

Greinke is 2 years older.  There are perhaps more questions about Price's durability than Greinke's, but if you look at Price at the end of 2015 and Scherzer 2014, you'd have to stretch things to prefer Scherzer.  Scherzer is on Price's BBRef age comp list, and he is behind him on the key measures. 

I'd expect that Price will get a longer contract then Greinke but perhaps one or two years longer rather than three. 

Greinke is opting out of a 3 year 71 million dollar contract so obviously he's not signing for 3/90.

But I guess I could see Price getting 7/210 and Greinke 5/150, but who knows, maybe they both get 6/180.

Consider for a moment that spending money on starting pitching is like buying lottery tickets. Every ticket has a chance to get injured or regress, and be a sunk cost. Getting four years of the Marco Estrada lottery at 50m compared with 7 years of the Price/Greinke lottery at 200-250m seems like a good deal. I bet eight times out of ten you get more quality performance per dollar spent in the Estrada scenario.

I see people's estimates for Price/Greinke are lower, but even at 6 years 180m, I like Estrada's likely output for the cost much more.

bang per buck is important, but more important is just plain bang.

I have never felt more confident in any statement I've made on the Box (and I make lots of statements that I feel some concern about the next day).  Dickey's option is getting picked up.  Remember, you guys wanted to non tender Lind and Estrada.  You are talking about non-tendering Revere and Saunders.  Heck, i've seen Jays fans express the idea that we don't exercise EE's option. 

For whatever reason, you guys as a community miss the boat on the market value of talent.  I've learned so much from y'all  - about statistics in particular - but the game exists as it exists, whether or not you have existential problems with the obscene dollars these guys make.  I sure do. 

I will personally buy each and every person here a beer who disagrees with me on Dickey's option - if the Jays buy him out, I owe you a beer..  You've gotta come out to the Danforth and watch a game with me, but I'll pony up.

jerjapan, with all due respect, most members did not want to non-tender Lind, I'd argue that most people overestimated his value and were disappointed when we only received Estrada for him. I don't remember anybody saying we should not exercise EE's option, but if so, wow. Lastly, there have definitely been some members talking about Saunders as a sunk cost, I don't recall Revere, but I would say most of us would agree that non-tendering either of them would not be ideal.

How about an old-fashioned poll? I'd vote YES that Dickie's option does get picked up.

I'm just as sure that his option was in serious danger halfway through the year.

Dickey's option has to be picked up. He's a 200 inning guy who is (maybe surprisingly) coming off his best season as a Jay (RA9-WAR of 2.4, 2.6, and 3.6 from 2013-15 respectively). The fact that the only MLB starters currently on the roster are Stroman and Hutchison makes it even more foolish to let him go.

If they were able to find 3 starters this winter and decide to trade Dickey because of it, then that's a different story, but outright letting him go would be a terrible waste of an asset.

Price would be a bad investment, IMO. A lot of mileage on his arm, already 30, and will require a seven year deal to lock up at big money. Pass.

Try to build a rotation that is strong 1-5. Stroman is the ace. Just have to build some solid depth behind him.

The more research I do, the more comfortable I become with a long-term deal for Estrada. Of course, it's extremely rare for a pitcher to "break-out" in the 30's and sustain this performance long-term (Dickey is an example/exception). HOWEVER, Estrada has had bursts of brilliance in the past and in 2015, this burst was longer than in previous years. For example, his 2012 season was very solid and in particular, he has been very, very strong in the 2nd half of each season since 2012. His stats for the past four seasons:

April: 92 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.0 HR/9.
May: 112 IP, 5.24 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 HR/9.
June: 74 IP, 5.50 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9.
July: 79 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9.
Aug: 106 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.
Sp/Ot: 124 IP, 2.24 ERA, 0.8 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9.

In summary - he's been consistently awful in May & June and outstanding after July. This pattern has repeated itself each year (he was injured/on DL in the mid-season in 2012 & 2013).

So while much has been made of his new approach & the impact of Navarro -- this is a bit of deja vu for Estrada... the adjustments he makes as the season goes on are substantial and impactful (whatever they are!).

My take-away is this: 2015 was not an anomaly. He's pitched at this level before, particularly as a starter in 2012 & 2013 (he was relegated to the bullpen in 2nd half 2014). The key question for me is whether he can sustain this performance for a longer portion of each season than he has in the past. If he could be counted on to replicate his August/September for an entire season, he'd be worth $20+ million per year. So what's an appropriate amount to pay him knowing that you'll get a strong 2nd half and COULD get a full season of top end starting pitching? Probably at least $30-$40 million for 3-4 year...

Any thoughts or explanations on his 2nd half dominance?

"If they were able to find 3 starters this winter and decide to trade Dickey because of it, then that's a different story, but outright letting him go would be a terrible waste of an asset."

Jerjapan, I don't think anyone on here wants to dump Dickey alone. If you dump him, it would be to use his value towards a better player.

You take Dickey and Buerhle and combine their salary and that's enough for either Greinke or Price.

Also, I don't know why, but people seem to forget that Price is a left hander. That makes a huge difference because there are less of them and because they are believed to age better when their velocity dips.

Also, David Price is known to be well put together, and Greinke is known to have battled some serious personal issues. That does affect perception in the game.

A third reason why David Price will earn more value and length than Greinke: he pitched in the AL while Greinke pitched in the NL.

These are just things that affect how the GM's will evaluate these players. I see these two guys like Scherzer and Lester last year, except I'd wager that Zimmerman may get a better contract than Greinke. He's been a very good pitcher.

Why has no one mentioned the biggest question for me re: resigning Estrada - resigning his personal catcher Navarro. The splits between when Martin caught him vs. Navarro were staggering. Do we have enough confidence that Martin can learn how to catch him the way Navarro did? He didn't show any aptitude for it this year.

"The more research I do, the more comfortable I become with a long-term deal for Estrada...In summary - he's been consistently awful in May & June and outstanding after July. "

That fact alone, in my books, makes it more obvious why you need a pitcher like Price. He's the one that will get you to the post season, the one that will end those 4 game losing streaks, that will help you dominate because of his consistency compared to pitchers like Dickey and Estrada...you can't rely on pitchers like that to be your go to guys when they might not perform for a third of a season. As a number 4/5...no problem, but I would think that the Jays are being extremely risky if you have Stroman as your ace + Estrada/Dickey as his main counter parts...that's when you realize half way through the season that you have to sell the farm to get a real ace.

No thank you, I'll advocate for the team to take the risk with money, not prospects.

Michael Grange on the Sportsnet site has an interesting article about the Shapiro/Anthopoulos issue. Not reading it, might be a mistake.

If you're not reading it, how do you know it's interesting? (Seriously, that unnecessary comma is awful. It changes everything you're trying to say.)

I'm assuming Richard you mean http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/anthopoulos-gave-himself-leverage-ownership-couldnt-imagine/ article.
I see a lot of 'meh'. When did they start negotiating to get Shapiro and what was originally promised? To me the bottom line is when did they sign him (August 30th) at which point the Jays were in first place, 1 1/2 up on the Yankees at the end of the day. So when Shapiro was signed he knew dumping AA would be an extremely unpopular move should he do it and that only a fool would do massive changes to a team that finally seems to be getting things in gear.

In the end the Jays are 8th in MLB for average attendance, The top 10 in attendance saw 2 teams over $200 mil, 3 others over $150, and everyone over $110 with the Royals $110,140,000 the lowest payroll to get a top 10 in attendance. Now, 4 of the next 5 are sub $90 mil, but it is an easy argument that a top 10 attendance deserves a payroll that would be top 5 in 2015 ($160+), there were 6 with $155+

For what it's worth, Price's age 29 BBRef comps are Johan Santana, Jered Weaver, Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Jon Lester, John Candelaria, Doug Drabek, Cole Hamels, Jake Peavy,  and Max Scherzer.  Scherzer has only had one year since and Hamels two, but of the others, none has put up more than two substantially above average seasons after age 29.  Price was born in August not long after the July 1 cut-off, so on average he's a little older than this crew.

Most years there are at least 10 pitchers in the AL with 4 BBRef WAR.  If you use that as the marker for a substantially above average season, it's probably a mistake to anticipate that Price will deliver more than 2 of them in his remaining career.  Hudson had better numbers than Price up to age 29, and has had a pretty typical aging pattern.  HIs best three seasons since age 29 provide WAR figures of 5.7, 4.7 and 3.0.  

In news, Dalton Pompey advises that he is going to the Dominican League this winter and Edwin Encarnacion has surgery on a hernia. 

"...Why has no one mentioned the biggest question for me re: resigning Estrada - resigning his personal catcher Navarro..."

I mentioned it, and I said the Jays should sign Navarro as the back-up catcher (and Estrada specialist) for 2016.  By now he has probably accepted that there isn't a starting job waiting for him at another MLB team, so he shouldn't be too difficult to sign.  He hits well enough for a back-up catcher, and he handles pitchers well, and the Jays can afford him.  Seems like a no-brainer to me.  The only question mark would be Dickey and Thole, but I think the 2015 scenario can be repeated:  Martin handles Dickey most of the time, but Thole is sometimes promoted to the majors to give Martin a break.  Helps to keep Martin and Navarro relatively fresh too.

First off, re-sign AA. That is an absolute no-brainer, and I'd say the only reason it hasn't been done yet is that AA is negotiating like a genius. He has all the leverage to get a massive long-term deal: current success on field and on the balance sheet, a solid window going forward to remain competitive, and most importantly Shapiro being brand new and simply not having the collateral to not bring AA back as his first move as President.

AA is about to GET PAID. And I'm all for it.

QO for Estrada is a no-brainer, and I'd probably go 4/55 for him if I had to.

Price I'm torn about. If we now have a payroll that can carry 25 million per year in dead money in years 5-8 like we're the Yankees, then great. If not, I'd think long and hard about it.

Bring back Dickey for sure, you can't buy 200 innings for 11 million on the free market, and we need someone to pitch those 200 innings.

Osuna I start in the rotation for the first half of the year, then move to the bullpen the second half.

Sanchez should be tried as a starter.

Hutch gets a fair shot.

Revere and Smoak are trade bait, should be sufficient to add decent bullpen pieces. Let Saunders and Pompey compete for the outfield job. Goins is the super-sub, a Zobrist-lite. Cola at first. Navarro gets brought back.
 

The Article in question is "Which Blue Jays team was Shapiro brought in to fix," by Michael Grange.

That list of comps does give me pause Mike Green, but after a superficial glance at their career stats, would you not choose age 29 Price over pretty much all those guys?  He has the pedigree (1st overall) the size (6 ft 6, 210 lbs) the consistency (since establishing himself as an ace in 2010 he has had but one season with fewer than 8.1 Ks per 9IP and a WHIP ranging from 1.05 to 1.19) and the health that if you are going to bet long-term on an ace, Price seems pretty ideal to me. 

The one exception I see is Santana, but while his peak was utterly elite, he only had a five year run of healthy starting all season.  Price missed a few starts in 2013 but has basically no health issues, and his fastball is still mid 90s. 

I haven't got the savvy to compare guys from different eras with any authority, but I'd still take age 29 Price over Drabek and Candelaria.

Cole Hamels might be the one other guy I'd bet on, and it was stunning to me to realize that when he signed his extension in 2012 to stay with the Phillies, his six year, $144 million dollar deal was the second highest ever for a pitcher.  The cost of a FA is going up fast ....

So Mike, what would you offer the guy?

never really been a big fan of the bref comp tool.

if we look at fipwar (32gs pace in brackets):

23: Hudson 3.8 (5.8) ---- Price 1.3 (1.8)
24: Hudson 3.5 (3.5) ---- Price 4.2 (4.3)
25: Hudson 5.1 (4.7) ---- Price 4.4 (4.1)
26: Hudson 4.7 (4.4) ---- Price 5.0 (5.2)
27: Hudson 5.8 (5.5) ---- Price 4.4 (5.2)
28: Hudson 4.6 (5.5) ---- Price 6.1 (5.7)
29: Hudson 1.8 (2.0) ---- Price 6.4 (6.4)

Hudson of course suffered that fall at age 29 when leaving the comfy confines of that park in oakland. but fip only hints at the difference - xfip and siera are much clearer in showing how much that stadium helped him, and both his era and fip spiked bigtime in atlanta despite his xfip and siera being not much different.

but Price has none of those issues - his eliteness carries through from era to fip to xfip to siera, from TB to DET to TOR, and he just had his best year at 29 when Hudson had his worst.

The article on Shapiro isn't really useful because the author doesn't know anything that we don't know. He's just speculating.

Regarding Price: if the Jays had a Dodger-sized payroll, this would be a no-brainer - he's an ace pitcher, and would help the team greatly in the short term. The waste of money at the end of the contract wouldn't be a big deal. The real question is whether signing Price would hinder the team in the long run because there wouldn't be enough money left to bring in new people.

As an example of what could happen: if it hadn't been for the Angels' inexplicable generosity, the Jays would have had to pay Vernon Wells $21 million in 2014 to not play baseball for them.

But, on the other hand: the goal for a baseball team is, or should be - within reason - to maximize wins, not to maximize wins per dollar or maximize the return on investment to the company's investors and shareholders. Focusing on revenue rather than providing a winning team is cheating the fans who pay good money. And if the Jays don't sign Price, a division rival might: picture him in a Yankees or Red Sox uniform next year. Both teams need pitching, and both teams have lots of money to spend.

So I dunno. I'm glad it's not my decision to make. As a fan, I hope that Price and Estrada both return. But it's not my money.

I did a search for most fWAR from age 30-37 (i.e. 8yr deal) since 1975. Any comps we think work here?

1. R.Johnson 228gs, 59.1war, 8.3/32gs
2. C.Schilling 249gs, 53.1war, 6.9/32gs
3. G.Maddux 274gs, 50.0war, 5.8/32gs
4. K.Brown 223gs, 45.1war, 6.5/32gs
5. S.Carlton 277gs, 43.2war, 5.0/32gs
6. R.Clemens 239gs, 42.8war, 5.7/33gs
7. M.Mussina 252gs, 40.7war, 5.2/32gs
8. N.Ryan 252gs, 35.9war, 4.6/32gs
9. R.Halladay 199gs, 35.0war, 5.6war/32gs
10. C.Finley 253gs, 34.1war, 4.3war/32gs
11. C.Lee 168gs, 32.5war, 6.2war/32gs
12. T.Seaver 241gs, 31.7war, 4.2war/32gs
13. D.Wells 240gs, 31.3war, 4.2war/32gs
14. A.Pettite 237gs, 31.2war, 4.2war/32gs
15. P.Martinez 180gs, 29.9war, 5.3war/32gs


here's the top 15 from age 24-29 (i.e. price's first full season) for reference:

1. R.Clemems 204gs, 46.9war, 7.4/32gs
2. P.Martinez 173gs, 45.9war, 8.5/32gs
3. G.Maddux 196gs, 40.8war, 6.7/32gs
4. J.Verlander 200gs, 33.9war, 5.4/32gs
5. C.Sabathia 196gs, 33.3war, 5.4/32gs
6. J.Santana 186gs, 32.5war, 5.6/32gs
7. R.Oswalt 189gs, 32.5war, 5.5/32gs
8. K.Appier 184gs, 32.3war, 5.6/32gs
9. F.Hernandez 196gs, 31.3war, 5.1/32gs
10. D.Price 189gs, 30.5war, 5.2/32gs
11. B.Blyleven 204gs, 30.2war, 4.8/32gs
12. B.Webb 197gs, 29.8war, 4.8/32gs
13. Z.Greinke 188gs, 29.8war, 5.1/32gs
14. R.Halladay 158gs, 29.5war, 6.0/32gs
15. C.Kershaw 126gs, 29.3war, 7.4/32gs

"As an example of what could happen: if it hadn't been for the Angels' inexplicable generosity, the Jays would have had to pay Vernon Wells $21 million in 2014 to not play baseball for them."

If we were stuck with that after a solid 3-5yr run of legit contention and maybe a world series or two, and in the midst of a post-contention rebuild, then i think we'd all be fine with carrying wells' dead weight for a few years.

imo.

I ran a Play Index for pitchers who in their age 28 and 29 season had a K rate higher than 7.8, a W rate lower than 2.7, an ERA+ of 130 or more and 400 IP.  I got 12 names including Price.  Mike Mussina, Max Scherzer, Felix Hernandez, Jose Rijo, Johan Santana, Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber, John Smoltz, Roger Clemens and Sandy Koufax.  The attrition rate is worse than I would have expected with Mussina being the most hopeful, realistic comp of the lot. 

Price is not Clemens or Johnson or Koufax or Pedro. The optimistic projection for him for the next 8 years is 1 or 2 Cy Young contender seasons (5 bWAR+), 1 other very good year (3.5-5 bWAR ) and 5 below average to somewhat above average years.(0-3 bWAR). You can still justify 7/210.  It's a gamble and you are likely to pay more than the average $/WAR on the free agent market.  Nonetheless, with the gutting of the minor league system, there is a lot of merit to attempting to compete seriously in the next year or two and Price has a pretty decent possibility of helping you do just that.  There are other ways of doing it though.  I see Stroman as an ace, and you can certainly win with an ace and two good starters behind him.  

Price has over 1500 innings pitched in his career (regular and post season). He's 30. He will command a seven year deal, so he'll be signed until age 37. This has albatross contract written all over it.

I think the Jays should take a page out of the Royals book. Add a couple of innings eater types to fill out the rotation and improve the pen. With this offense and projected defense, they'll be able to win a lot of games as long as they have starters who can provide quality innings.

Unless the Jays are getting a cost effective ace (Carrasco, Sale, etc), they are better off keeping their top prospects and trying to avoid any bad long term investments via free agency.

This is from a while ago, but Doug Fister might be part of the answer. He struggled as a starter last year, but has a decent track record and pitched well after his move to the bullpen (the Jays need more bullpen arms too). The Blue Jays have better defense than the Nats, which should help a low K rate pitcher like Fister.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/09/blue-jays-interested-in-doug-fister.html

Jordan Zimmerman is another Nats pitcher who had a down year and is now a free agent. Admittedly there are some worrying trends in his peripherals, but the Nats were such a toxic disaster this year it's possible a fresh start might rejuvenate some of these guys. Throwing to Rus Martin instead of Wilson Ramos should help too. Although the DH...

There are a number of free agent pitchers that deserve consideration; we don't have to fixate on Price, especially considering he is the most expensive option out there.

Good catch Ishai. Fister fits the Jays recent catches - someone with good skills who gets lost in an organization for whatever reason. Worst case is long man, best case is Estrada v2. For under $10 mil a year get him, but wouldn't go to $10 mil.

I would not bring back Price. Would try hard to keep Estrada. Rather than Price, would prefer to try and sign Gallardo plus one other. I don't expect prospects to be traded this off season other than Pompey who is presently blocked with other good OF's in the system.

The good thing this winter is the Jays have cash (or should) and open slots in the rotation, where there are tons of options this winter. AA should decide who he wants and for how much then chase him down hard right away. If he demands too much go to choice #2 knowing there are many options for a #1 pitcher this winter and many for a #3.

I would take Price in a heartbeat even knowing that you could be eating the last half of the contract. I saw what he added to the clubhouse. He brought everyone around him up. He would be a great influence to all the young pitchers.

I think signing Price for market value and a couple of cheapo reclaims like fister/zimmerman to fight for the depth spots with the kids but without being wedded to a permanent starting spot (i.e. like estrada this year) would be ideal.

I'm very skeptical of committing the kind of money to inconsistent mid rotation types that requires them to be permanent full time members of the rotation for their contract to be valuable.

I thought a key strength of this year's team was that all the questionable depth spots on the roster were filled with flexible, waivable guys who could be moved up and down and in and out depending on their performance.

Thoughts from Sidney on the Sea (I've moved south from Nanaimo...)

Zimmerman - most likely too fly ball(ish) for Rogers Center. BUT - a very interesting young(ish) arm.

Pompey - not only too many good guys ahead of him but Alford not too far behind - and Alford might just end up being a serious offensive and defensive force. IF - they really like Pompey - Alford might be a prized prospect we could almost afford to trade...

For the play-offs you need a critical mass of SHUTDOWN pitchers. For the season, with our offense, you need three or four above average starters (+ at least three really good pen arms). Unless we just get lucky one set of play-offs we need at LEAST two shutdown starters for the play-offs. Perhaps that could be Stroman and Price or Stroman and Estrada. I've high hopes for Osuna: despite the fact that at 20 he doesn't think (or perhaps not enough enough of his young brain is fully functioning yet to realize that being very good and pitching every fifth game can earn him millions upon millions more over his career than pitching four times a week out of the pen). I think we'll end up "buying" a Price or Estrada type Ace(ish) and trading some of (or all of): Pompey, Harris (I think he's overrated), Goins or Travis, and a lesser body or two for another controllable Ace(ish). I'd be over the moon IF we actually BOUGHT two Ace(ish) guys. I'd be very happy with Price, Estrada and Marco's personal battery mate Tonto, er... Navarro.

Zimmerman is not a reclaim project in my opinion.

Another starter that is a buy low candidate considering where he could've finished his season: Jeff Samardsjobsjbgdfjbndvjiza

He would be a good fit on this team.

I just listened to Paul Beeston's interview with Jeff Blair. This is total surmising on my part based on my read of his tone, but he certainly does not make it sound like AA's return is a done deal. Says he "hope it works out". When Blair suggested that Beeston knew the kind of individual Mark Shapiro was, Beeston corrected him and said that he didn't know him very well at all. It doesn't sound like there has been a lot of interaction between the two regimes to deal with the transition.

I think the main reason any A.A. re-signing is on hold is budget. I don't think contract length or dollars per year matter that much. But I strongly believe how much he can spend on the Big Team matters greatly. I also think he wants more of a free hand with the Team. When will the Anthopoulos contract be announced? Probably when Shapiro talks over.

Whether or not you favor re-signing David Price there are points to consider. In-house, there is NO-ONE to take his place, absolutely NO-ONE. He's left-handed, 6'6", a Bona Fide Ace,continually healthy and willing to return. Please tell me who's as good as or better that will happily come here. There's no one, and in-house hasn't worked out that well lately.

Whether or not you favor re-signing David Price there are points to consider. In-house, there is NO-ONE to take his place, absolutely NO-ONE. He's left-handed, 6'6", a Bona Fide Ace,continually healthy and willing to return. Please tell me who's as good as or better that will happily come here. There's no one, and in-house hasn't worked out that well lately.

Guys like this just don't along often.  There is little chance he will be worth the back end of his contract but that's just how things go.  This is a contending club but it's very, very difficult to get pitchers of this calibre and teams with a chance to win don't often and shouldn't lose the opportunity to retain one.  If he signs elsewhere so be it but I fully support a 210/7 offer.  It's the cost of doing business.  It's also worth noting that almost all of the organization's minor league pitching depth, especially at the higher levels, is gone.  I'd like to see Estrada and Dickey back too at fair prices but neither is remotely as important as the big guy.

I don't imagine pitchers trying to rebuild their value coming to one of the best hitting parks in MLB if they have options & we also don't have a highly regarded pitching coach to lure pitchers - the jays are more likely to entice a hitter trying to rebuild their value.

Instead of paying Price north of 200mil - I'd give some to Mike Leake (only 28 in November), a bit to Scott Kazmir , try to put together a package for Carrasco/Salazar/Ross and call it a day - rest of the money could go to extending JB/EE. Our offense can support that rotation.

locking in guys like Kaz and Leake - mid rotation guys who arenèt even workhorses and have had their surface numbers and value massively boosted by sheltered innings in pitchers parks and leagues - would be the absolute worst strategy, imo.

IMO those are exactly the guys who a clever GM could get equivalents off the scrapheap.

I need help.  I am being tormented by an abiding dread that Rogers is somehow screwing up the re-signing of A.A.  Can’t shake it off.  If anyone could screw it up, after all, it would be them.  It shouldn’t even be a possibility, but . . . it is Rogers.

 Any and all suggested remedies/nostrums will be gratefully accepted.

Shapiro seems to be a systems guy, while AA seems to be more of a creative genius who makes intuitive leaps and sees opportunities that other GMs might not see. I'm not sure how well the two would work together. That's just a guess based on limited information; they could end up having a fruitful working relationship.

Also, I don't think the Jays will re-sign Price, as he would be too risky an acquisition for the organization.

I think the Jays are well-placed to compete in 2016, but I don't agree that the team necessarily looks like a contender beyond next year. I expect that one or both of Bautista and EE will be gone by then, and Donaldson/Martin/Tulo will be significantly less valuable than they have been in their careers to date. And the farm system has been significantly depleted. It doesn't mean the team won't be playoff-calibre at that point, but more deft front office moves will have to be made to get there.

I've high hopes for Osuna: despite the fact that at 20 he doesn't think (or perhaps not enough enough of his young brain is fully functioning yet to realize that being very good and pitching every fifth game can earn him millions upon millions more over his career than pitching four times a week out of the pen).

Osuna is 20 and has had TJ surgery at age 18. His career could be over well before the big payday comes.

Also, I don't think Stroman has ever pitched more than 130 innings in a year.
It wouldn't surprise me if he's done before the playoffs.

"Any and all suggested remedies/nostrums will be gratefully accepted"

Mylegacy can probably chime in with a wee dram of a suggestion...

I don't expect the Jays to sign Price, but I'm sure he'd be very tradeable at t the deadline after a year or two.
People forget that it's how we got Buehrle and co.
Miami won 2 World Series by signing top guys and flipping them shortly after even if it didn't work at all the third time.

One thing to remember in all the angst about AAs signing is World Series news blackout -nothing can be announced until the series is over

The Blue Jays will pick up Dickey's option:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/blue-jays-will-exercise-dickey-option.html

Not surprising, and good to hear. Dickey will pitch a lot of innings (someone's going to have to pitch for this team next year), and probably pitch well.

Two biggest questions this raises are: will the Jays have to carry Thole again? And will they trust Dickey to pitch in the playoffs? Despite his good second half, Gibbons/Anthopolous did not show much confidence in him in the postseason. It might simply be that there were three better starters, but I wonder if he or the team have any lingering questions/feelings/issues considering how it all played out. And if Dickey is going to throw to Thole all year only to have him left off the playoff roster, that is signing up for an uncomfortable pitcher and passed balls in a playoff game.

It's probably all fine though.

nothing can be announced until the series is over Not sure if this is accurate. Washington just announced the hiring of Bud Black as manager (it's on their website) DURING game 2 of the World Series. For the record, I think the angst is valid. I think that Shapiro and AA are still negotiating their respective roles & responsibilities for the future. If Rogers hadn't hired Shapiro, AA might have been in line for a promotion to President & GM. It's an opportunity that would likely be available to him somewhere else, although probably not for another 10-12 months. I think the odds are better than 50:50 that AA returns -- but it's far from a done deal at this point.

Cool thing. Ex-Jay star Dave Stieb contacted Baseball Reference to have them correct his salary information.
http://www.rollingstone.com/sports/features/the-sublime-simplicity-of-baseball-reference-com-20151028

Gotta love it. I've been using that site a lot pretty much since it started (also use http://www.thebaseballcube.com/ sometimes as it has college stats too).

"News blackout".. I'm pretty sure the source I was the a statement from the commish about not wanting announcement to detract from the series but I would have to find it and it was a while ago... and yeah I no sooner posted this than I saw the Black hiring

Re-sign Price and Estrada and add Chris Davis - a

Trade Pompey plus cola bello for Walker plus Carson smith.

Trade Revere plus Hutchison for Ross.

This reduces your payroll to $145 million for 2016.

Let Thole and Smoak go for Navarro

Shi reporting that AA is leaving Blue Jays after turning down an extension.

Hoping for Tinnish or Lacava.

I like AA, was hoping he would be back, but it's not the end of the world - there's a lot of smart young gm talent in mlb & it's important that the executives have the same philosophy - not surprised given the events of the last 18 months.

Baseball Reference shows disputed salaries for 1985-1990. It's pretty close anyway.