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Game Threads ALDS Game 4 -- Dickey vs Holland

She cried "Bingo", you finally clued in
I guess I never thought to look there
What you took you can give back
But I never kept track
I guess I never thought I'd have to



The Texas Rangers aren't through with the Blue Jays yet. Thanks to Marco Estrada's timely outing and Troy Tulowitzki's even timelier home run, Toronto gets to play another game this afternoon in Arlington. The former long-time-ago Ranger R.A. Dickey gets the call for the Blue Jays, facing the organization that drafted him for the first time since 2014. In fact, Dickey has only faced the Rangers three times in his current knuckleballing incarnation, going 0-2 in 2014 (9 ER in 13.1 IP) and 1-0 in 2013 (1 run in 5.2 IP). Ah, the small sample size. Derek Holland counters for Texas: he is 3-2, 5.15 in eight career appearances versus the Blue Jays, though he's allowed eight home runs in 43.2 innings.

Lineups

BLUE JAYS

Revere (LF)
Donaldson (3B)
Bautista (RF)
Encarnacion (DH)
Colabello (1B)
Tulowitzki (SS)
Martin (C)
Pillar (CF)
Goins (2B)
Dickey (P)

RANGERS

DeShields (CF)
Choo (RF)
Fielder (DH)
Moreland (1B)
Andrus (SS)
Hamilton (LF)
Chirinos (C)
Odor (2B)
Alberto (3B)
Holland (P)

It was a slight surprise when Holland was announced as the starter for the Rangers, considering they have a 17 game winner kicking about in Colby Lewis, who also has an impressive postseason resume (4-1, 2.34 in eight starts, 32 hits allowed in 50 innings). An explanation might be his career numbers against the Blue Jays, where he is 3-6, 6.97 in eleven games (ten starts) with 15 long shots allowed in just 51.2 innings. Still, perhaps Lewis is summoned at the first sign of shenanigans for Holland.

It's funny how you get a feel for it when you finally lose your sense of fear.


Posted by Eephus on Monday, October 12 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT.
ALDS Game 4 -- Dickey vs Holland | 173 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#313111) #
Today is not St. Crispin's day. But it's near enough, dammit.
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finch - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#313113) #
Lets bring this back to the 6!
If Tulo can continue to hit and get on a hot streak, I don't see the Jays losing again this series *knocks on wood*
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#313114) #
a legit destruction of holland, with an easy day for the pen, would be nice.
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Cracka - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#313115) #
Late change: Beltre is now in the lineup at 3B and batting 3rd. If he's near 100%, that's a big boost for Texas.

However, I have doubts that he's fully healthy. As of this morning, he wasn't able to run the bases and the Rangers were considering a roster move to add another infielder. His bat is still legit, but if his range or speed is limited, that negates his impact.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#313116) #
I expect Holland to be on a short leash. They only need to save one starter for Wednesday.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#313117) #
It looks like KC will be the next team out.
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mathesond - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#313118) #
Bunt single, home run - these Jays are multi-dimensional!
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baagcur - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#313119) #
Please Please don't say it looks like game 5 in Toronto
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#313120) #
Baseball, it's not over until it's over.
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BlueJayWay - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#313121) #
This is a good start.
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mathesond - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#313122) #
I'm kind of regretting not DVR-ing the Royals-Astros game
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#313123) #
Yep, short leash. I wonder if you bring Smoak now.
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sam - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#313124) #
I know we're winning and all, but Jose Bautista has played pretty poor baseball this series.
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vw_fan17 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#313125) #
Yeah. Never know how a player will react in the playoffs, until they're IN the playoffs. Jose did a lot to GET us to the playoffs. Doesn't mean he's cut out to be Mr. October. But, without him, probably NO ONE on the Jays has a chance to be Mr. October 2015.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#313126) #
Makes me wonder why they didn't bring back Gallardo on short rest.

When was the last time Dickey got a lead like that?

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rtcaino - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#313127) #
I don't understand this whole Price thing. Perhaps they wanted Stroman in game five regardless, and were looking for additional support to that conclusion?
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BlueMonday - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#313128) #
Well, that went better than the last couple of times we started a knuckleballer in the playoffs, but why the early hook?
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sam - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#313129) #
It makes sense--you have Price out of the bullpen Game 5 and then likely have him early (to start) in the next series if you get there. They'll need multiple lefties in a tight game.

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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#313130) #
You keep your options open and your opponents guessing.
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Four Seamer - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#313131) #
Just trying to get Price his first post-season win, which he's now in line for.
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BlueJayWay - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#313132) #
So, I guess it's Stroman starting Game 5 with Price in relief?
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#313133) #
Me, I keep both in case it's another 14 innings marathon or Stroman needs to come out.
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eudaimon - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#313134) #
I like the idea of starting Stroman in Game 5 personally. He was really good in Game 2, and Price seems to struggle a bit against the Rangers. I suspect Price is out now because of the lefties in the lineup, which I think makes sense. Lock this game down and get to game 5!
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#313135) #
As long as he saves some for Wednesday.
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sam - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#313136) #
I think you need to bring Justin Smoak in here--need to get some momentum in his at-bats as he will likely play against Gallardo.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#313137) #
I'm expecting Hamels.
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Chuck - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#313138) #
Harold Reynolds, please stop talking.
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jerjapan - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#313139) #
I don't mind bringing price in, I respect the unconventional thinking, but dickey should've gone a few more to my thinking. Clearly, this management thinks higher of Estrada and less of dickey than we bauxites think.

So how long does price go?

And mike green, does this count as a tandem start?
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#313140) #
That's only 11 pitches. It's a creative way of replacing Cecil.
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sam - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#313141) #
Seeing Jake Diekmann again here is going to help--another look for the Jays.
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James W - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#313142) #
I think you need to bring Justin Smoak in here--need to get some momentum in his at-bats as he will likely play against Gallardo.

I would start Colabello at first in game 5, regardless of who Texas sends to the mound.

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JB21 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#313143) #
Same. Cola has to be in the lineup.
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eudaimon - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#313144) #
I'd start Colabello too... It's not like Smoak did anything against Gallardo. As well, I know Smoak's had a few big hits this year but I personally feel as if he strikes out every time I see him up to bat.
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jerjapan - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#313145) #
Dunno why you would make a decision on smoak v. Collabello based on four games
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JB21 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#313146) #
Or the entire season? Cola doesn't have splits this year. And he deserves to be in the lineup.
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James W - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#313147) #
It's not my decision to make, but it would be based on more than just these four games. Colabello is simply the better hitter.
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JB21 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#313148) #
So at this point Price is finishing this game and unavailable Wednesday m, right? Or maybe as a LOOGY?

Looks like Mike G got his tandem start wish.
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John Northey - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#313149) #
Ugh wasn't happy when they brought Price in so early. Dickey clearly had a lot more in the tank I'd have let him go 6 then bring in Price for the last 3. Instead we now have a much tighter game than it should be. Oh boy. C'mon Sanchez.
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Mylegacy - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#313150) #
HOW DARE you take out Dickey, up 7 to 1 with TWO OUT in the fifth, and only one guy on base!!! What an appalling show of disrespect!!! Price throws ONE pitch and get the WIN! I'm disgusted! Dickey has been screwed royally! This has left me speechless - er - more or less...
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Jimbag - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#313151) #
Using tabloid-style name-mashing, Prickey gets the win.
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CeeBee - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#313152) #
I'll take the win no matter how it came about.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#313153) #
Those 3 of 5 series are a little like Russian roulette.

They won back home advantage, although, it seems overrated.

The Jays 3/4 pitchers are still vastly underrated.

I'm sure glad Yu Darvish isn't in their rotation this year and Stroman is back with the Jays.

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Gerry - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#313154) #
With Price pitching the way he did today, and in game one, I feel better with Stroman starting game 5.
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Jimbag - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#313155) #
I do agree with mylegacy, that was a quick hook that didn't seem to be reflected by the results on the field. And Dickey doesn't get the respect he deserves. His post-game interview just put a giant exclamation point on just how good a team player he is. He's kind of magical: climbs mountains, baffles hitters, and he's ready to do either one on Wednesday.
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BlueJayWay - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#313156) #
Stroman in Game 5 all the way. He's our best pitcher right now.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#313157) #
love it. love gibby.

stro was always the one for game 5 imo.

great to see gibby going balls to the wall. no tippy toeing in the postseason.

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rpriske - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#313158) #
I think the whole point of that was for Price to get his confidence back after pitching poorly in game one and being passed over for game five.

I also think it failed.
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Mike Green - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#313159) #
I am happy with the win and glad Stroman will be getting the Game 5 start. I think that Price ought not to come back this series. Stroman, Loup for a LHB, Sanchez and Osuna would be my plan.

The home runs the other way we're especially gratifying.
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Kasi - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#313160) #
I am baffled by this decision. They were up 7-1 and Dickey was pitching pretty well. So instead of 2 aces for game 5 we have 1? I just don't understand the need to bring Price in there up 6 runs.
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Four Seamer - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#313161) #
I think it pretty clear that Gibby wanted a rested Stroman for game 5, but without the drama associated with choosing him over an equally rested Price; since I agree with him, I'm glad he got the outcome he wanted (although it would have been comforting to see a sharper outing from Price today).
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JB21 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#313162) #
Count me in for not caring how we got here. We have a Game 5 and Stroman's on the mound. Here's hoping the trademark Blue Jays grind-em-out ABs are a plenty in Game 5, and the better team wins.
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Dave Till - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#313163) #
In an elimination game, I would grade a manager using Pass/Fail - if the team wins, he gets a Pass. It's all good.

I'm okay with Stroman for game 5. I'm just happy that there is going to be a game 5.

From what I gathered of the radio broadcast, it looks like Osuna was reasonably sharp today. This is reassuring.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#313164) #
nice to see us make diekman and Dyson look human this time, too.
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Gerry - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#313165) #
Gibby in his post-game said that Loup was away today for a family emergency. Basically Gibby said that he was trying to make sure Texas did not get any momentum or hope of a come back. He was worried about Choo who has hit Dickey well and he wanted to make sure Choo didn't hit a multi-run home run to get Texas and the crowd into it. He has seen many teams get an early lead, take their foot off the gas, and have the other team creep back into it. He wanted to make sure that didn't happen.
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ayjackson - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#313166) #
I was glad to see Deikman and Dyson today, because we're going to see them on Wednesday and the more reps, the better.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#313167) #
"From what I gathered of the radio broadcast, it looks like Osuna was reasonably sharp today. "

best he's looked in a while. 96heat and dirty slider, on all the corners.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#313168) #
"Basically Gibby said that he was trying to make sure Texas did not get any momentum or hope of a come back"

and he's 100% right, as the Astros blowing a 6-2 lead in the 8th today shows.
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Mike Green - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#313169) #
Incidentally I wouldn't mind at all if Dickey came back for an inning in Game 5 in a pinch.
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Dave Till - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#313170) #

He has seen many teams get an early lead, take their foot off the gas, and have the other team creep back into it. He wanted to make sure that didn't happen.

As someone on my Twitter feed pointed out, John Gibbons was a member of the 1986 Mets. So he would know about unexpected comebacks.

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Cracka - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#313171) #
It's very interesting that the Rangers have announced Cole Hamels as their Game 5 starter over Yovani Gallardo. I have to think the Jays are happier with this match-up... another lefty that they've had success against in the past instead of the one guy that's given them trouble all season. I get why they made the choice - Hamels is former World Series MVP with an impressive post-season track record... and Gallardo will likely be available out of the pen... but I always like the Jays chances when they're facing a LH starter, and they certainly pounded Perez and Holland as expected.

The rookie manager (Banister) is relying on his veteran ace. The veteran manager (Gibbons) is relying on his hot young arm instead of their hired gun ace. Cool stuff...


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Kasi - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#313172) #
The thing is they'll have Gallardo at full rest in case they need him or if it goes long again like game 2. Gibbons right now is saying Price won't pitch. Price is saying he will. I have to believe that Price's side will win out, because other than Loup he's the only lefty on the team. But will he be as effective going on two day's rest after going on short rest here?

I agree the silver lining is that Stroman pitches who I like more, but by my count the Rangers have their 1-2 ready to go while we only have our 2. If that game today was 4-1 sure I understand. 7-1 I just don't get it. And going by my twitter feed most don't get it either.
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JB21 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#313173) #
That Osuna slider was nasty. Man he is so calm out there as well.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#313174) #
"If that game today was 4-1 sure I understand. 7-1 I just don't get it. "

there is no such thing as a safe lead in the playoffs. no such thing as saving players when you're in an elimination game.

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Kasi - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#313175) #
But don't we also have to win game 5 too? And if Gibbons is right and Price is not pitching at all in that game (which of course is likely not true) than as the ace that does hurt us.

Unless it was some odd move to get Stroman in there as the starter without having any drama. As in if they don't pitch Price today than they'd have to start him game 5 right? I suppose that could make sense. Gibbons thinks Stroman is the better guy to start game 5 and this solves that situation in the least dramatic way possible. Anyway color me befuddled.
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cruzin - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#313176) #
"I think it pretty clear that Gibby wanted a rested Stroman for game 5, but without the drama associated with choosing him over an equally rested Price"

I think this is it exactly.

Even though Price wasn't hit really hard in game 1, he still gave up 5 runs and was saddled with the loss. Add in the fact he hasn't won a post season game as a starter and has a very high ERA against the Rangers, this has bad vibes written all over it. By using Price here, it becomes a slam dunk that it will be Stroman in game 5.

And let's not kid ourselves. Most of us would probably go with Stroman given the stats staring us in the face. And if we really need to bring Price in relief for game 5 for more than a batter or two, things would've gone really bad. The extra security of having a fully rested Price/Stroman both available like Gallardo/Hamels is really insignificant.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#313177) #
"But don't we also have to win game 5 too?"

can't think about tommorrow in an elimination game, imo, and i am overjoyed that gibbons didn't.

especially given how rested the entire team has been the last few weeks, and that they don't play tommorrow.
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ayjackson - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#313178) #
Could be a Gm1 start for Dickey on Friday night in Kansas City? (of course, it would be Estrada's turn on regular rest)

I shouldn't get ahead of myself.
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rtcaino - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#313179) #
"As someone on my Twitter feed pointed out, John Gibbons was a member of the 1986 Mets. So he would know about unexpected comebacks."

He played in 8 games all year, and was not on the World Series Roster. But no doubt he was aware of what occurred.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#313180) #
he was catching in the bullpen when the comeback happened.
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rtcaino - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#313181) #
My theory is that Gibby intended Stroman to pitch in game 5 all along. This could be perceived as a slight to Price. So, by using Price today, he is unavailable and there is no controversy.

Strategically this makes little sense, because Dicky could have gone much longer (say 120 pitches) and we would have both Stroman and Price for game 5.

The trade off is the ego of Price, versus the availability of both aces in game 5.
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rtcaino - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#313182) #
"he was catching in the bullpen when the comeback happened."

Ah! I missed that tidbit.
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Super Bluto - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#313183) #
I'm a little surprised that Hamels is the starter for Game 5 given how well Gallardo has pitched vs. Jays. I suppose he's always available out of the pen.

Same for Estrada and Stroman, I guess.

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John Northey - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#313184) #
Wow. Cole Hammels for game 5? Does Texas want to be eliminated? I'll take it. A LHP going against the Jays for a deciding game - what more could we ask for? I suspect Gallardo will be ready to jump in if the Jays get off to a start like today.

Really hoping for a KC vs Jays ALCS - that would be a big blast to watch.
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pubster - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#313185) #
I think if Gibbons wanted to reduce drama he would've let Dickey get one more out.

But it's pretty clear the plan was to pitch Stroman in game 5.

If the Jays make it through, Price should be ready for Game 2, maybe even game 1.
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Cracka - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#313186) #
Career vs. Hamels (including Game 2):

Donaldson: 1-3, 1 HR
Bautista: 4-12
Encarnacion: 5-17, 1 HR
Martin: 6-21, 1 HR
Tulo: 5-17, 2 HR
Revere: 2-6
Pillar: 1-3
Colabello: 1-3
Smoak: 2-3
Goins: 0-2

I haven't looked at the numbers for Gallardo, but I just know that they aren't as favorable as these.

I think there's a chance that Banister changes his mind between now and Wednesday afternoon.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#313187) #
i think we might be overcomplicating things

we all know how tough the 3rd time through the order is for a pitcher, and especially with choo and beltre already 2/2 off him, gibby didn't want dickey facing them a 3rd time....not with price ready to go. after all, if choo and beltre get hits again, then suddenly fielder is up with a chance to make it a 2 run game.
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John Northey - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#313188) #
I suspect the 2 out in the 4th thing was to give Price the win so he could get that monkey off his back (the no playoff wins one). The Jays need him to win the World Series so if that helps his confidence at all then it was a good move. Dickey is very grown up vs most players thus will be annoyed but accept it.

So I expect Stroman to get the game 5 nod (of course) with everyone on hand if needed but hopefully Osuna is all that is needed in the 9th to slam shut the game.

ALCS if they make it? Price would be on 3 days rest after 60 pitches today so I figure he won't start game 1 but instead start game 2 depending how he feels. Game 1 then goes to Estrada with game 3 being Stroman on regular rest and game 4 being Dickey. Game 5/6/7 then are Price/Estrada/Stroman with Dickey in the pen for 6/7. Given 2 starts each for the big 3 I'd expect Estrada/Price/Stroman then for games 1/2/3 to help ensure all are properly rested but not too much.
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Petey Baseball - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#313189) #
Two things:

1. Who says Price can't pitch in Game 5? Has Gibbons or anyone else from the Jays said otherwise? I'd imagine with a day of rest he'd be fine for at least an inning. Stay tuned on that one.

2. No question I'd  rather have Gallardo than Hamels start. Hamels is flat out a better pitcher, and still is an ace, capable of dominating a lineup even as potent as the Jays. He's pitched well in some pretty big playoff games, and threw a no hitter recently. It's hard to predict the Jays will light him up. I like the chances of the "gauntlet's" third shot at the nibbling junkballer any day of the weak. 



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cruzin - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#313190) #
"I suspect the 2 out in the 4th thing was to give Price the win so he could get that monkey off his back (the no playoff wins one)."

Except that Price does have post season wins, just not as starter. And that didn't change with today's W added to his post season record
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cruzin - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#313191) #
I should also add that Price being 0-6 as starter, that 4 of those losses were against the Rangers.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#313192) #
He was worried about Choo who has hit Dickey well and he wanted to make sure Choo didn't hit a multi-run home run to get Texas and the crowd into it.

That kind of thinking reminds me of Farrell.
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JB21 - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#313193) #
I believe Gibby said that Price won't be available. And I believe Price said that he will be available.

If the Jays are grinding out ABs like they did in Texas I like our changes against either pitcher.
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pubster - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#313194) #
Petey, I don't know if I would even want price pitching game 5.

He's been their worst starting pitcher this series. And only Hawkins has pitched worse than him outta the bullpen.

I like Stroman to Estrada for game 5.
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scottt - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#313195) #
and he's 100% right, as the Astros blowing a 6-2 lead in the 8th today shows.

I don't see a parallel there.  McCullers pitched into the 7th. If a mistake was made it was bringing Harris back for the 8th instead of just using the top 3 relievers for the last 3 innings. Probably because of match ups.  Harris, Sipp and Gregerson have been great all year.

You don't pull your starter early because somebody else's bullpen implodes.


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John Northey - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#313196) #
I wouldn't have Estrada into game 5 unless no other good option is left. #1 is Sanchez who seems on fire lately, #2 is Osuna who is a bit shaky but solid. Not sure who else would be on my short list right now as Lowe has been scary at time as has Hawkins. Loup for a key LH matchup. Hopefully the offense and Stroman are on so it won't matter.
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uglyone - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#313197) #
"I don't see a parallel there."

the parallel is that you don't make your decisions based on the idea that a big lead is "safe".
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cruzin - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#313198) #
"You don't pull your starter early because somebody else's bullpen implodes."

While I wouldn't have made the call to pull Dickey after 4.2IP, I can see Gibbon's rationale.

Both Choo and Beltre were 2 for 2 and Fielder had hit 2 deep flys for outs previously. Gibbons likely didn't like the idea of a 3rd time through the middle of lineup where Dickey didn't have much success with. Then add in the Astros/Royals game being fresh in his mind, was easy for Gibbons to connect the dots and fear the worst case scenario. Yeah I think he managed scared there, but then I've always felt he's managed that way.
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Petey Baseball - Monday, October 12 2015 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#313199) #
Correction: Yes, Gibbons said Price wouldn't pitch. Price said he could. Don't know what to make of that.

I'd still let Price rather than Loup face Moreland, Fielder, or Choo late in a tight Game 5 scenario.

If the difference in the game is within 5 runs either way, I predict we'll see him again against a lefty.

What also is very encouraging looking forward to Game 5 (and hopefully well beyond) is that Sanchez and Osuna look outstanding right now.

Don't usually talk much about the off-field intangible stuff, but if the Jays have a first inning like that again, the Dome will be mental. 

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King Ryan - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#313200) #
"the parallel is that you don't make your decisions based on the idea that a big lead is "safe"."

Nor do you make your decisions based on what happened in the most recent game which is exactly as relevant as any game from the 2005 ALDS, which is to say not relevant at all.

Ahead 7-1 there's no reason to pull Dickey just because they got a baserunner, and no reason to go to David Price when anyone in the pen should be expected to hold that lead. If you don't trust Liam Hendriks with a six-run lead then he shouldn't be on the roster. There was no reason for Gibbons to burn Price there; that was just absurd overmanaging from fear.

Just because you have to win the game doesn't mean you need to be completely myopic. The eye should be on the World Series, which we have almost no chance of winning with Gibbons managing this way.
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eudaimon - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:06 AM EDT (#313201) #
I think it was a fine move. Manage to win and don't take chances unless totally necessary. The Rangers are a dangerous team, and our bullpen is looking a lot less strong without Cecil around. I'd rather avoid a close game in late innings if possible, particularly in a bandbox like the ballpark in Arlington (#5 in park factor runs this year).
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eudaimon - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:24 AM EDT (#313202) #
Also, I think the fragility of starting pitchers is a bit overstated. It depends on the pitcher obviously, but some can be ridden hard with no real consequences for a short time (see: Madison Bumgardner in 2014 Postseason). I think Price could be one of those guys.

Even so... he's pitched 9 innings so far. He had 11 days off before that last start. Madison Bumgardner pitched 21 innings in the World Series alone (and allowed one run). I'm not at all worried about him being overused and unavailable.

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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#313203) #
"Nor do you make your decisions based on what happened in the most recent game which is exactly as relevant as any game from the 2005 ALDS, which is to say not relevant at all.

Ahead 7-1 there's no reason to pull Dickey just because they got a baserunner, and no reason to go to David Price when anyone in the pen should be expected to hold that lead. If you don't trust Liam Hendriks with a six-run lead then he shouldn't be on the roster. There was no reason for Gibbons to burn Price there; that was just absurd overmanaging from fear. "

the score had nothing to do with it, is the point. in an elimination game, gibby put his best foot forward - bringing in price to face the meat of the order instead of dickey facing them a 3rd time. he would have made the same decision if it was a one run game, a tie game, or if the jays were down 5. theorizing that "lesser player X should get the job done" means nothing when you lose the game without using your best available guns.

"Just because you have to win the game doesn't mean you need to be completely myopic. The eye should be on the World Series, which we have almost no chance of winning with Gibbons managing this way."

myopic?

price and stroman were both going to pitch in these 2 elimination games, it was only a matter of when. anything else would have been gibby simply choosing not to use his best with the season on the line, which is just dumb. using price in this game instead of game 5 has the added bonus of making him available to start game 1 or 2 of next series, which actually improves our chances even when taking the longview. you use both of them on wedensday, and neither can pitch until game 3 of the next series, and only one would have a shot at starting twice next series.

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King Ryan - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 03:09 AM EDT (#313204) #
The score always has something to do with it. To say otherwise is just silly.
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Jonny German - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#313205) #
It was an unconventional move for Gibbons to go to Price when he did, but I think complaining about it is basically picking nits. The Jays are back on top, the favourites to win the series, with Price lined up for Game 2 if they get to the ALCS. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me. I can remember all the way back to Friday, Tulo yelling "NO!" as Vic Crapazza punched his ticket on a pitch 3 inches off the plate. It felt like the Jays were on their death bed just then.
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scottt - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#313206) #
Just looking at game 1 and game 2, Hamels was better than Gallardo. There's more pressure now that both teams face elimination. It think it was an easy decision.
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scottt - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#313207) #
I thought it would make sense to keep Price just in case. What if Stroman gets nailed by a comebacker in the first? What if the game goes in overtime again?

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Mike Green - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#313208) #
I go further than Jonny, but along the same path.  I admire Gibbons' decisions to stray from the traditional approach towards veteran "ace" pitchers.  The goal is to win.  He (and Pete Walker) seem to have arrived at the same judgment as I did- that Price's seasonal workload has affected his command and that a Game 5 start was not the place to regain it.  By giving him a 50 pitch low leverage outing in Game 4, he gets an opportunity to work on his command without being overly taxed.  Similarly, the decision to remove Dickey with one out needed for the "win" demonstrated (to me, at least, and hopefully to the entire club) that the club winning was the thing that mattered.

I have often criticized Gibbons, but this time I think he did the unconventional and right thing.  In so doing, he's set up the pitching, I think, as well as it could be despite the loss of Cecil.  I harken back to the 1985 playoffs when Bobby Cox stuck with platooning patterns when he ought not to have, and I am grateful that Gibbons showed more flexibility than Cox did in that series. 

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ayjackson - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#313209) #
I think Gibby was leaning to Stroman to start game 5, which meant he had his second best pitcher available to split a start with someone. Unsurprisingly, he chose Dickey over Stroman. Whether it was after 5ip or 4.2ip is moot to me.

I'm not convinced Texas isn't bait and switching by naming Hamels the starter, but who knows.

Much prefer the big lefty who we historically have hit pretty well.
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rpriske - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#313210) #
"I think if Gibbons wanted to reduce drama he would've let Dickey get one more out."

I think that would have be counter to his goals.

One of the points seemed to be to get rid of that big fat goose egg in Price's post-season record.

Psychology matters.
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Kasi - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#313211) #
I wonder what the reaction of this board would have been six weeks ago if you had told us that we would use Price as a long reliever in a game we were up a ton to give him some innings in a low leverage situation so we could instead play Stroman in the deciding game instead. It might be the right move, but like Kurkjian said on ESPN this morning it's shocking,

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13877504
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cruzin - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#313212) #
"One of the points seemed to be to get rid of that big fat goose egg in Price's post-season record."

Except as I pointed to earlier in the thread, Price didn't have a goose egg to begin win. So the psychology part of the goose egg doesn't apply.

His 0-6 record is simply as a starter, his overall record was 1-6 and now 2-6 with yesterday's relief appearance.
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Kasi - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#313213) #
Speaking of psychology matters.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:13877646

Basically Kurkjian thinks that Price after this won't resign with the team. Mainly because of cost, but also he feels this lack of trust it shows in Price as an ace will predispose him from resigning. I'm not sure how big an ego Price has. He seems like a pretty fun loving and relaxed guy so maybe it isn't as bad as Kurkjian thinks? But I know that for some guys like Clemens or Halladay I don't think they've have welcomed this decision.
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Cracka - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#313214) #
I doubt Kurkjian watched the extensive post-game coverage and the interview with Price (there was another game on). My impression is that Price is willing to do ANYTHING to win a world series and he is not at all concerned about next year. Price declined the chance to make his final start of the year and pad his stats & Cy Young chances... there's just not any indication at all that David Price is the least bit upset with how he's being used or perceived by the Jays.

Kurkjian is mostly right about one thing though - free agency decisions will be all about the money. I'm not at all worried that Gibbons has harmed our chances -- if we make the best offer, he'll sign with us. Otherwise, he won't.


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Ishai - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#313215) #
I love what Gibby did there.

If Stroman needs a buddy, Estrada will be there. Going from Stroman's diving two seamer to Estrada's floating four seamer would befuddle anybody. Well except maybe Josh Hamilton, but he comes pre-befuddled as long as you throw him anything else.
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Gerry - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#313216) #
Do you want to spend $300M on Price if he isn't your first choice starter in an elimination game?
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ayjackson - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#313217) #
No, Gerry. I don't.
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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#313218) #
stroman being awesome doesn't make price less awesome.
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John Northey - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#313219) #
Good point Gerry. Price is an extremely good pitcher I'd love the Jays to keep but not at $300 mil and I'd be iffy at $200. This winter will be a very interesting one regardless of how the post-season goes. With 3 rotation slots up for free agency the Jays have some hard choices to make. Right now Estrada looks to be the starter they need most of those 3 (Price & Buehrle the other free agents of course). Who'd have thunk it? Realistically Price is the best of the batch and is worth a $210 over 7 deal but with the Jays appearing far closer to the 1991 team than the 1985 one (cusp of WS winner vs first winner ever) they'll be looking for playoff performers and Price sure doesn't seem to be one right now - that could completely change if the Jays make the ALCS.
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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#313220) #
"t like Kurkjian said on ESPN this morning it's shocking,"

it's funny that gibby has always been (wrongly) accused of being too old school and traditional, and now he's getting criticized for being too shockingly out of the box.

and now, after all that this team has done together, everyone thinks both Dickey and Price - two of the most thoughtful, generous players in baseball - have been mortally insulted by this as the jays have come back with two elimination game wins and are back in control of the series after looking all but done.

ah well, writers need to write.
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ayjackson - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#313221) #
Amazing how the media wants to talk Gibby-Dickey-Price-Stroman, when the real issue in my books is Bannister-Hamels-Gallardo.
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Dave Till - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#313222) #
I've assumed all along that Gibbons discussed his usage plan with Price, and that Price was okay with it. Price seems to be a great guy who genuinely wants to win.

I'll be curious to see what the Jays' front office does in the offseason. Jon Lester, who isn't as good as Price, got six years and $145 million last year. Someone could offer Price as much as seven years and $200 million. I don't know whether Shapiro is the sort of GM who would be willing to pay that kind of money. (Interestingly enough, Lester is now not the #1 guy in Chicago either - Arrieta has become the top dog there.)
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Dave Till - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#313223) #
Shapiro would be the president, not the GM, of course. But he'd have the final call on money.
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Mylegacy - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#313224) #
I've slept on it...

I UNDERSTAND Gibby's position - who was coming up - what they had done to Dickey and how the best way to keep a big lead is to "...not let the other guy get back in it." I UNDERSTAND...

However, we still had a 7 to 1 lead and Dickey was ONE OUT from a win. I leave Dickey in AT LEAST to try and get Choo. If Choo gets a hit (or homer making it 7 - 3 for us) I take him out then - BUT - I let him get that chance. There is a place for "Old School" and "Numbers" BUT given ALL the circumstances the ONLY way I could agree with what Gibby did is if he came out and told Dickey he had to get Choo or would be pulled to stop a Texas come back.

However, Gibby (like ALL managers will get cut one day) Gibby is going to get cut one day KNOWING he did it his way. He will get cut KNOWING he didn't compromise on what he thought was best for the team. Regardless of how it worked...while I disagree...I admire an "old school" horse taking the path less traveled. Hopefully, Dickey wins the final game of the World Series this year and all is forgiven.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#313225) #
FWIW, I don't think that either of Banister's choices are great, but I think that he made the right choice. I think that he has correctly recognized that the jitters are gone and that the Jay hitters would take Gallardo the other way in the RC and do a lot of damage; Hamels' swing and miss stuff is more likely to hold the Jay bats to 3 or 4 runs for 7 innings.  Hamels, (Gallardo, if necessary), Dikeman and Dyson would be his plan.

I've been very impressed with Banister.  He seems alert, competent and decisive.  He's making the most of the talent he has.

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Four Seamer - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#313226) #

I wasn't in the clubhouse yesterday, so maybe smelling salts were required to revive Price from a fainting swoon occasioned by Gibby's grievous insult.  But how do these commentators square their portrait of such a delicate flower with the fact the man was chomping at the bit to get into these games in Texas, to the point of warming up on his own in the bottom of the first?

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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#313227) #
"Dickey was ONE OUT from a win"

if i found out my manager was giving even one iota of consideration to an absolutely meaningless personal stat in an elimination game, i'd be enraged.
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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#313228) #
"(Interestingly enough, Lester is now not the #1 guy in Chicago either - Arrieta has become the top dog there.)"

and even given that, ask Theo if he regrets the signing in any way, shape, or form
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ayjackson - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#313229) #
Jays hitters got 6 hits and no runs in 13.2 presumably jitter-free innings during the regular season against Gallardo. I'll take my bets with the lefty who, except for perhaps one recent "jittery" game, has never fooled the Jays.
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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#313230) #
p.s. if we get there, i go with price in game 1 on friday on 3 days rest, given he only threw 50 pitches. that gives him a chance to pitch game 5 on normal rest.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#313231) #
Hamels hasn't faced this version of the Blue Jays.  He had one lousy game in 2014, and three games in 2009-10.  Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista have hit him about as well as they hit the average pitcher.  Russell Martin has struggled against him.  Troy Tulowitzki has hit decently against him, but not as well as average Tulowitzki.  Josh Donaldson has faced him 3 times and does have a homer. 

I'll concede that it is a judgment call, but Hamels' record against the Blue Jays as a ball club isn't particularly important.  The balancing act, to my mind, is this.  Gallardo has not been effective in the second half of the year (even in his good outing against the Jays in August, he was uncommonly lucky with BABIP walking three and striking out two).  He is a pretty good RHP altogether, and the Blue Jays do list right and hit LHPs quite a bit better than RHP.  Hamels has been equally effective over the year, and over his career, has actually been a smidge better against RHB than against LHB courtesy of his change. 

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China fan - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#313232) #
".... If you don't trust Liam Hendriks with a six-run lead then he shouldn't be on the roster..."

Perhaps in the regular season you would use Hendriks, because the stakes are not so high.  But this was the playoffs, not the regular season, and the Jays were just four innings away from elimination if they didn't secure the win.  Unlike the regular season, Price was available from the bullpen yesterday, he's widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he's a LHP against a heavily LHB lineup, so he was a far better choice than Hendriks.  It's nothing to do with "trust" -- it's a question of choosing the best pitcher for the situation.  And the situation, in this case, was an absolute must-win game, against a team of excellent hitters.  The Rangers are such a good-hitting team that they ended up scoring 3 runs against Price in 3 innings.   How many more might they have scored against Hendriks, Hawkins or other middle-relief pitchers?  Also factor in the fact that Loup was unavailable last night because of a family emergency, and Cecil was injured, and Price was the only LHP available.  He was also the only pitcher available who could reliably throw several innings.  In view of all this, I think Gibby's decision was defensible. 

On the negative side, Price might not be available tomorrow -- although I suspect he will indeed be available in a LOOGY situation, if the team is badly in need of a LHP for one hitter in a crucial situation.   But his lack of availability isn't a huge problem, in my view.  Stroman, unlike Dickey, doesn't have a history of 5th inning problems or 6th inning problems.  He's probably good for 6 or 7 innings at least.  The bullpen, at most, will probably be needed for just 2 or 3 innings -- and basically the entire 7-man bullpen should be available tomorrow.  They're all reasonably rested.   And even Estrada or Dickey could be pressed into service for a batter or two or three.  So I think Gibbons was right to concentrate on winning Game 4, knowing that he had lots of weapons available for Game 5.
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Oxygen8 - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#313233) #
Unless Banister is playing some games.... I'm baffled that Gallardo isn't starting.... Hamels between throwing with his left arm (which the Jays generally feast on), and all the looks many guys have gotten from him in ST make little sense to me from a Texas persecutive...
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85bluejay - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#313234) #
There will be endless MMQB after game 5 - Gibbons & the FO will look like geniuses if the teams wins or bubbling idiots if the team loses.

Most interesting - Gibbons in his post game presser saying categorically the Price would be unavailable Wednesday and Price in his presser insisting that he would be "ready for whatever role the teams needs him on Wednesday."
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laketrout - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#313235) #
I'm surprised Gallardo didn't pitch game 4. I assumed that was the plan after he was lifted after only 79 pitches in game 1.
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Lylemcr - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#313236) #
I am surprised that Texas is using Hamels too. Jays have struggled alot with Gallardo.

I was really disappointed that Gibbons used Price yesterday. In fact, I didn't like him using Sanchez and Osuna too. His finger is too close to the panic button.

That being said. I do like that Price has a W now in the post season (monkey off his back). I also like Stroman as the starter. He is super mentally strong
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electric carrot - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#313237) #
From my point of view I think I would prefer facing Gallardo. I just don't think he is as good a pitcher as Hamels is.  Also, Hamels has pretty even lefty/righty splits so he doesn't strike me as the kind of pitcher who Jays righty dominant sluggers are going to have a huge advantage over. I'm expecting a tight contest where speed on the basepaths and good defense is going to play an important role on who wins.
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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#313238) #
Hamels went 7 and gave up 2 runs in game 2. Struck out a bunch of us and didn't walk any. Gallardo scraped through 5 innings without missing any bats. I would definitely prefer to face gallardo.
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baagcur - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#313239) #
Price had a post season win in his second outing

It is Dickey that is carrying a monkey now, albeit of the pygmy marmoset size
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cruzin - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#313240) #
"That being said. I do like that Price has a W now in the post season (monkey off his back)"

No that monkey is still on his back, he's 0-6 when starting. On the other hand he has a 2-0 record with a save as a reliever.

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John Northey - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#313241) #
I think we'd all have smiled ear to ear if told the Jays would be playing game 5 of the DS vs a LH pitcher earlier. Hammels is a good pitcher, but odds are Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion are all looking forward to tomorrow.
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92-93 - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#313242) #
Let me start by saying this - I would've left Dickey in for one more batter, and if he gets that out I would've seen how long I can go with him. It seemed to me like he had the hard knuckler working well yesterday, and that with the big lead he had the luxury of not needing to take something off the knuckler to make it easier to control/catch. I'd feel confident with Dickey on the mound in an ALCS game. That being said, I completely understand where Gibbons was coming from.

Beltre and Choo were a combined 11/28 with a 2B, HR, and 4:4 K:BB ratio vs. Dickey prior to the game. They were 4/4 in the game. It's ludicrous that Gibbons is being criticized for pulling Dickey when he did in a must-win elimination game. One swing of the bat in that spot puts the Jays into nervous territory over the final 4 innings. The Jays didn't have a lefty reliever available, so it was almost a guarantee that Price was going to come into the game anyway. I'm sure he was well aware of that going in, which is why he started playing catch with Stroman right from the start.

I thought Price looked great for the first few batters, and then looked like he was starting to tire. He will be ready to get a lefty out in a big spot tomorrow.

The at bats the last couple of games have been beautiful. I don't know if it's a result of facing lesser pitchers and/or just a calming of the nerves on the road down 2-0, but if they continue their recent approaches into Game 5 they are going to be just fine. If they lose, it won't be Gibby's fault, it will be the result of a crapshoot 5 game series in a sport where bad teams win 45% of their games. I had a helluva time at Games 1 & 2, and can't wait for tomorrow. Let's do this!
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uglyone - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#313243) #
but isn't just so Toronto that in the wake of this tremendous comeback to take back control of a series that looked lost, that all we want to do is bitch about the manager?
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Jimbag - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#313244) #
I can't really see Price as a LOOGY tomorrow. Starters have a way different warm-up routine (takes longer) than bullpen pitchers, which is why we saw Price playing catch in the 1st yesterday. You'd have to be looking for a specific slot to put him into well before the situation arose to bring him in without significantly altering his routine and possibly risking injury. That's just my opinion, anyway. Also, Loup should be available for Game 5, and that's his role.

As for the rest of the debate regarding Price/Dickey yesterday - at least we're weighing the pros and cons of a move that worked out okay. If Stro pitches like he did in game 2 (and actually gets the lower outside part of the plate), I like our chances a LOT. Hell, 3 months ago most of us would have been delirious over the idea of a game 5...the bar has certainly been raised, and I love it.

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JB21 - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#313245) #
Well said, 92-93.
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John Northey - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#313246) #
Heh. So true uglyone. If it is annoying Gibbons he should go talk with Cito Gaston. 2 World Series in a row, 4 out of 5 years in the playoffs despite being handed a team that was 12-24 yet all throughout people complained and complained about him. It was sad and funny at the same time.

The good news is we have a fairly well rested pen for tomorrow with today's off day helping. Sanchez threw just 4 pitches yesterday, Osuna 13. With 11 and 6 pitches respectively the day before. So both are sub 20 pitches with a full day of rest before tomorrow. I'd feel a LOT better if Cecil was available but nothing can be done - basically the Jays traded Cecil for Stroman with fielding leg injuries. I'd say that is a very good trade, just would've preferred if it was a different reliever knocked out, say Loup instead. Also in the pen if needed is Estrada (extras only I hope). I suspect Dickey could come back if absolutely needed but he'd be after Estrada around the 18th inning at which point it is a pure endurance contest.
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Kasi - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#313247) #
News conference today has a couple interesting tidbits from Gibbons.

1 is that Loup might not be back tomorrow. Second is that Price likely won't pitch. This means we have no lefties for the game tomorrow.
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Magpie - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#313248) #
My take!

I wouldn't have done it. Gibbons told us why. They made sense, they were reasonable. Still not what I would have done, but it's his call and he's got his hottest starter lined up for the deciding game.
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Magpie - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#313249) #
a sport where bad teams win 45% of their games.

Irrelevant, I say! There are no bad teams in the post-season!
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Chuck - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#313250) #
but if they continue their recent approaches into Game 5 they are going to be just fine

We need the fans to be only moderately enthusiastic, but no so crazy that they induce adrenaline surges that a rational mind can't overcome.

Who would I speak to about this?

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scottt - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#313251) #
I like our chances a LOT

It's more or less a coin flip.
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S P - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#313252) #
Honestly it's pretty shocking to read complaints about not giving RA a chance at a meaningless W. Gibby was absolutely right to be extra cautious with the big lead considering what happened with the other games and the record day for playoff HRs. Choo and Beltre were up 4/4 on Dickey for the day, Loup wasn't available and you need a lefty, Price was already warmed up, so you go with Price. Do you want to see Tepera and Hawkins out there giving up runs in the 6th and 7th? You take no chances. That said, I agree that 50 pitches for Price was unnecessary. He didn't need to come out for the 8th. Sanchez has bad rightly splits but he's been a different pitcher in the playoffs and I would've trusted him with a 7 run lead that late.
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scottt - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#313253) #
You need to visit other forums ugly. Bitching about the manager is almost universal.

Gibby's moves did not cost the game. On that, we can all agree.

The danger in game 5 would be for Gibby to swing the other way and leave Stroman in there too long.
Clearly, he doesn't have a lot of guys he likes in the pen.


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jerjapan - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#313254) #
It's more or less a coin flip.

Uhh .... no?  I may not be even close to to the statistician that many Bauxites are, but we've got 166 games of meaningful data this season alone, and we know our 2 starting pitchers (although admittedly, Stroman doesn't have much data vs. the Rangers). 

If you think it's a coin flip, let's bet at even money.  I'm taking the Jays. 

Great read on Estrada at Fangraphs today:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/





















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vw_fan17 - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#313255) #
I wouldn't say it's shocking that people are complaining about Dickey not getting the W - if we lose tomorrow, it'll be his only playoff game ever, and he was 1 out, 6-runs up away from a W.

Price already has several playoff games/wins/losses. And he has 5-6 years left. This might be Dickey's last year, or only kick at the can. It's my understanding RA is a very consummate team player, but 10 years after he retires, he might very much miss that 1 W, if it comes to that.

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Kasi - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#313256) #
I don't care that we pulled Dickey. Sure I'd like for him to get a win for sentimental reasons but that doesn't matter. I care that we decided to put in our best pitcher, the likely Cy Young runner up and wear him out to the point where our manager now says he won't pitch in game 5. If it was a close game sure, but it was a six run lead. If you're not going to use Hendrik there (who is good against lefties) why is he even on the roster? Anyway the decision has been made to put all the eggs in the Stroman basket. And I love the guy and think he'll do well, but if he struggles early or gets hurt or anything I sure wish we had Price in there on full rest.

Btw what happens in other games has no bearing on the game you're in. Just because Houston blew a lead does not make it more probable that we do. Anyway people should go read the articles Rob Neyer, Ken Rosenrhal and Grant Bisbee wrote today. Their thoughts are much in line (and much more eloquent) with mine.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#313257) #
Matz (autocorrect has him as matzo) vs. Kershaw is a pretty impressive match up.
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cruzin - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#313258) #
"we decided to put in our best pitcher, the likely Cy Young runner up and wear him out to the point where our manager now says he won't pitch in game 5"

Our best pitcher against the Rangers?

Matchups happen all the time in baseball. For whatever reason Rangers seem to have Price's number, they might be his kryptonite, ERA over 5 and prior to yesterday an 0-4 record. Now adding into the equation you still believe it's preposterous that starting Stroman over Price? After all shouldn't our "best pitcher" start game 5 and to hell with the past and recent results?

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Kasi - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#313259) #
I didn't say Price should start game five. I just feel that with the Loup situation leaving your team without a lefty to pitch in game five is asking for trouble. Price could have not pitched and been the backup to Stroman. Price could have pitched an inning and used it as a bullpen session and been an effective backup for Stroman in game five. Instead Gibbons has repeatedly stated he is not playing. Leaving us with no lefties for a pivotal game five.

Speaking of teams Price has done badly against, let's talk about the Yankees. Yet down the stretch he shut them down in four starts and powered us to the playoffs. Price is an ace, a Cy Young winner and someone who by all accounts is about to get 240 million dollars. He is a top 5-10 pitcher in baseball. You absolutely want him available for game five, no matter how poorly he's done in a short sample size against the Rangers. Is this not the man who just two years ago defeated this same team in a complete game dominating performance in the wild card tie breaker?

Btw people should go read the Hey Bill section on Bill James forum. Interesting take on it.
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cruzin - Tuesday, October 13 2015 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#313260) #
"Price could have not pitched and been the backup to Stroman."

Considering the drama created by simply having Price come into game 4 in relief in a must win game, somehow I think the drama and second guessing who've been 10X the amount if Price was fully rested and the Blue Jays chose to start Stroman instead.

As some have pointed, it's quite possible after game 2. The Blue Jays decided to use Stroman on regular rest for game 5 if there was one. The challenge would be how to do this without having this as being perceived as a slight to your recently traded for ACE. I agree it would've been nice to have that extra bullet and not used Price for 50 pitches last game. But does throwing 35 pitches mean you can log an inning or two extra, if needed a couple of days later? I don't know the answer and I think few here truly do.

As for your last point against the Yankees. Yes he's performed great this year and reversed the trend. But if he imploded against the Yankees like past results, do you think the Blue Jays would've lined him up for a winner take all game?

If Price has pitched a great game 1, and lost 1-0 against the Rangers then chances are they'd have gone with Price in the deciding game. But he didn't and when weighing all the factors in, Stroman seems to have the hot hand now and you go with it.
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Kasi - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#313261) #
I doubt asking Price to take a back seat to Stroman would cause any more drama than asking him to come in and mop up. Also like everyone has said isn't he a team player and just want to win?

I do agree with you that I think Stroman works out better in this game as a starter. I don't care really how they go to that decision, but I'd have liked it to be in a way that leaves us with an effective Price if we should need him, especially given our lack of lefties. I'm certainly not of the mind of some writers who scoffed at starting Stroman over Price. I like the matchup and think it works well here. I just wish the method of doing so didn't take Price fully out of this game 5.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#313262) #
The Blue Jays had the longest playoff drought coming in to this postseason. Now that the Cubs have knocked out the Cardinals, the Jays have the shortest World Series drought of the remaining teams.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#313263) #
Speaking of the Cardinals, they put up an incredible 134 ERA+ as a team in 2015. What happened to "good pitching beats good hitting"?
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budgell - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#313264) #

I suspect it will come out at some point that Price lobbied hard to pitch in game 4 or 5 (getting up on his own, etc.) and as Gibby had already decided on Stroman for game 5 he acquiesced to maintain cohesiveness.

Should he have been concerned clubhouse cohesiveness or left him in as long as he did?  Debateable.  If the Blue Jays lose today for lack of a (more rested) lefty coming out of the bullpen I suspect we'll have another mananger to kick around next year.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#313265) #
The Cardinals were hyper-efficient defensively in 2015.  There may be a significant luck element in that.  On a related point, the 2015 Base Runs Standings have the top 4 teams as the Blue Jays, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs.  Just saying...

As for the adage that good pitching stops good hitting, it's probably not true.  Research reported in the THT annual a few years ago suggests that 2/3 of the outcomes of at-bats arises from batter's tendencies and 1/3 from the pitcher's.  Or, if you prefer the more impressionistic approach, check out the hitting lines (career) of the great RH hitters of the National League of the time against Sandy Koufax- Frank Robinson, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente.  Spoiler: they hit him.
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uglyone - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#313266) #
yeah i'm sure it's a false cliche just like "defense wins championships" in other sports. in every sport i've looked at, offense is the more important determinant of championships - albeit not by a huge degree.
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uglyone - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#313267) #
of course, by fip and fwar the Cards' pitching was only 6th and 8th best, barely ahead of the jays and well behind the dodgers, cubs, and astros. so perhaps more evidence of era being too noisy an indicator.

and Mike those 4 top baseruns teams are also the top 4 by active roster war......which is why i picked them as the final four.
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Dave Till - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#313268) #
My $.02 on postseason managing is that a manager will be second-guessed, regardless of what he does, if his team does not win. Suppose Gibbons had held Price back for Game 5 and had lost Game 4? Worse still, suppose he had lost Game 4 because he had put in one of the relievers from the back end of the bullpen, thinking that the lead was safe? There would then have been calls to mount Gibbons's head on a spike somewhere.

Unless the Jays win the World Series, people are going to criticize Gibbons's decision (and possibly even then).

(In the immortal words of Rocky Bridges: "There are three things the average man thinks he can do better than everybody else: build a fire, run a motel and manage a baseball team.")
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AWeb - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#313269) #
The Cardinals pitching this year had possibly the greatest "sequencing" year of all time, with men on base they held opposition hitters to .224/.298/.332, with no one on it was .263/.320/.391. A LOB% as a team of 79.4%, which would be a top-ten number for an individual starter (Think Estrada this year). Their pitching was actually only "very good", not "best team pitching of all time" (which is defensible on an ERA scale, 2.94 as a team?). Throw in a few injuries to Cards' pitchers, and the better team won that series, on both sides on the ball.

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Chuck - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#313270) #
The Cardinals pitching this year had possibly the greatest "sequencing" year of all time

Didn't one of their World Series teams enjoy a regular season of unduly great "sequencing" on offense, hitting ridiculously well in high leverage situations all year long? Detractors were warning of an inevitable regression while proponents attributed that success to smart situational hitting, strength of character, virtuous living, yada yada yada.

It's fun to see Maddon in the playoffs. His reputation has unfairly become mythic in some corners and in others, as a predictable reaction, as that of an emperor with no clothes. I think it's safe to say he's somewhere in the middle of these extremes, and subjectively, to me, one of baseball's top flight managers.

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uglyone - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#313271) #
Maddon is the best manager in the game, imo.
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AWeb - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#313272) #
Didn't one of their World Series teams enjoy a regular season of unduly great "sequencing" on offense, hitting ridiculously well in high leverage situations all year long? Yep, in 2013, the Cardinals hit .236/.297/.356 with no one on, and .313/.376/.463 with men on base (and even better with RISP). BTW, this year's leader in opposing BABIP was the Blue Jays (.278) - not a great indicator of repeatability for future seasons, although with a knuckleballer and Estrada having made a deal with dark forces in the off season, hopefully it lasts a while longer.
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uglyone - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#313273) #
Kasi i read the rosenthal piece and noticed that he tried to spin price's request to skip his last regular season start as an organizational decision which insulted price. Kind of undermines his spin in the whole piece.
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China fan - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#313274) #
Ken Rosenthal has tweeted that he had to "adjust" his column (i.e., correct his column) to reflect the fact that Price "agreed" with the decision to skip his final regular-season start. He's still being misleading about it.  Price didn't just "agree" to skipping his last start -- it was essentially his own decision, rather than the Jays, since the Jays explicitly told him that he didn't have to skip his final start if he wanted a shot at a 19th win to bolster his Cy Young chances. It was ultimately Price's decision, even if the Jays preferred to give him rest. 

Anyway, if Rosenthal is admitting that the original version of his column erred on such a basic and obvious point about Price's final regular-season start, I don't give a lot of credence to the rest of his column (in which he claims that Price is so insulted by his "disjointed" use that he won't sign with the Jays).  Price can hardly feel insulted.  It was his decision to skip his final start of the season; he was then awarded the opening game of the playoffs; he was then warmed up in the bullpen as an option for Game 3 and he then pitched three innings in Game 4 and could potentially be available for a batter or two today.  That's plenty of usage, despite mediocre performance, and he really has no reason to feel "insulted."  And I'm sure he isn't.
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Ishai - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#313275) #
I'm feeling nervous about today! If the Jays are favoured, it's not by much.

Yes, Hamels is a lefty, but he is a whole different slice of pie than Martin "Only hope is you swing at balls" Perez, or Derek "Meatball" Holland. Say what you like about luck and randomness, a strong bullpen and good baserunning play well in close games.

Also, with so many people in the dome the humidity really picks up the longer the game goes on. I think this was an underrated factor in the 14 inning game. The ball that Encarnacion hit would have been a home run with the dome open, and would have been a home run in the 1st inning, but four and a half hours of people yelling and stress sweating will add some moisture to the air. I was there and you could really feel the difference!

I love Stroman! His pitches move like crazy, but I wonder how much benefit Texas will get seeing him for a second time. Because of his height he gets a novelty advantage the first couple times hitters see him; they are not used to the ball coming from that angle. The last inning and a half of his game 2 start Texas was starting to hit the ball hard. I hope that was just from Stroman's in game fatigue rather than Texas starting to figure him out.

The flip side of that is that the Blue Jays were showing signs of getting used to Diekman and Dyson. They might need to score some runs off the bullpen today.

Has anyone read anything about Estrada's availability?
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Chuck - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#313276) #
with so many people in the dome the humidity really picks up the longer the game goes on... The ball that Encarnacion hit would have been a home run with the dome open

I believe physicists would argue that baseballs actually travel better in humid air, which is less dense than dry air.

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Ishai - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#313277) #
Crazy! Have physicists tested if that holds true when the humidity comes from bad breath and sweat?

At least my incorrect hypothesis didn't lead me to install a giant humidor anywhere. The Rockies must feel silly if this is the case.
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Chuck - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#313278) #
The Rockies must feel silly if this is the case.

I think that humidifying baseballs and humidifying air are two very different things.

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Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#313279) #
Chuck, humidity is the amount of water vapour in air. The density of water is extremely higher than air. The higher the humidity the more dense the air and more resistance is met.
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Chuck - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#313280) #
The higher the humidity the more dense the air and more resistance is met.

Lots of sites like this this one refute that assertion.

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uglyone - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#313282) #
isn't the issue in the dome more of a wind tunnel effect?
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cruzin - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#313284) #
It's counter intuitive, but the science behind it says humid air is less dense than dry air. Since water molecules are lighter than the oxygen and nitrogen molecules they displace.
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AWeb - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#313286) #
Once the ball is in flight, humid air carries further. But, a damper ball doesn't go as far, and I'm guessing that's a way bigger difference. The balls just sit there in the same damp air everyone breathes.
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scottt - Wednesday, October 14 2015 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#313321) #
Persistent Odor.
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