Prediction - The Jays win 8-2.

Because why not?

holy ****, playoff beisbol.

As Jeff Sullivan repeatedly said last night - let's remember that these games are about the players performing, and almost never about the managers. let's try not to make it all about the managers.

".....As everyone has noticed, Yovani Gallardo has owned the Blue Jays....."

For those worried about Gallardo and his success against the Jays in those two games this year, I thought Andrew Stoeten made some good points in an article today:

We could examine what specifically happened in those games, but the basics are this: the balls that the Blue Jays hit on those days found their way into gloves. The 39.1 percent hard-contact rate that Gallardo gave up in the first of those two games was his highest mark on the season. The second, at 33.3 percent, ranked seventh among his 33 starts. And the Jays' batting average on balls in play in those games? The fourth (.130) and seventh lowest (.200) of his starts on the season—a year in which his BABIP was .303.  Otherwise, he was typical Gallardo—which is not a particularly impressive package, despite what Jays fans' fears might be telling them. A below-average strikeout rate (a career low 15.3 percent, or just 5.9 per nine innings), an above-average walk rate, and a swinging strike rate of just 6.5 percent, putting him in the bottom ten in the league among qualified starters. Gallardo doesn't miss bats, and when those bats are being held by the Blue Jays, bad things are going to happen for the pitcher, which is exactly what's happened to him in the second half.

My first ever live Jays playoff game.  Thank you (??) stub hub?  Whatever, I'm looking forward to a Blue Jays beat down ...

There Rangers have been great since the trade deadline and are a compelling story - but there''s some real dead weight on their playoff roster, the pen in particular.  Mediocre starters Chi Chi Gonazlez and Martin Perez have bright futures, but haven't done much this year and will be working out of the pen.  Perez has all of 16 pro relief appearances, Gonzalez walked 4 in his 4 relief appearances this year (5 career) as the club readied him for the playoff pen.  Ross Ohlendorf is the definition of replacement level, and fringy till getting to Texas RP Jake Deikman and Sam Dyson will be asked to play key roles. 

Drew Stubbs may have used his speed to be a plus baserunner / defender at the start of his career but he looks to have faded since leaving Cinci,(aside from last years fluky season).  He's only on the team due to the Rangers dreadful OF defense. 

Even with Hamels, I see us pounding the Rangers pitching and look forward to watching those OFs bring back memories of Cola in the OF as they run to get balls off the wall / over their heads.  

A baseball anniversary! It was 59 years ago today that Don Larsen tossed a perfect game to beat Brooklyn 2-0. In the fifth game of the World Series.

Larsen was once asked if he ever got tired of talking about his perfect game. His reply: "No, why would I?"

Perhaps this question is too hypothetical to be considered seriously, but I'll ask it anyway:  would you consider using Dickey in a relief role today?  Is there any circumstance in which he could be more effective than the usual bullpen options?  (And I'm not talking about the long-man or mop-up role, which is unlikely to be necessary with David Price on the mound.)

Can't see any reason to pick against the Jays in this series.  Favourites pretty much across the board (Offence, Defence, Running, SP, RP), hard to see where the Rangers have a clear advantage (if at all).  The usual caveats of a 5 game series apply (or any series, for that matter, in that anything can happen and maybe Gallardo duplicates his luck/success against the Jays this year and it's a short run), but there's no reason to expect that.

Who would start Game 4?  Price on short rest?

Only way I could see Dickey coming into the game is if we are talking extra innings, and lots of them.

Yeah, if it goes to extras I can easily see Dickey being used. Pitchers available are...
Roberto Osuna, Brett Cecil, Aaron Sanchez, Mark Lowe, LaTroy Hawkins, Liam Hendriks, Aaron Loup. Who among those would you expect to go more than 1 inning? Sanchez maybe. Plus if it goes into extras I could see Gibbons wanting to save a few guys for tomorrows game. Using R.A. Dickey would make a ton of sense should we reach a 10th inning or later.

I tried SO HARD to get a seat in 518 today. Had to settle for 519.

"Plus if it goes into extras I could see Gibbons wanting to save a few guys for tomorrows game"

Never save anything for tomorrow in the playoffs, short of tomorrow's starting pitcher.

I disagree. I think there's always an added risk when you have a starter come out of the bullpen unexpectedly - it requires much different, much faster preparation and that worries me for a finesse pitcher like Dickey. He has never appeared as a reliever as a Blue Jay (last time was 2011).

Sanchez was a disaster the only time he went more than 1 inning this year. Hendricks has done it the most and with the best results, so he would probably be the only multi-inning guy. Lowe, Loup, and Cecil have gotten more than 3 outs on a few occasions, but aren't 2-inning guys. Osuna had several multi-inning stints earlier in the year before he became the closer, so he might be the 2nd best option.

With two of the best hitting teams in the league, the probability of a long extra inning game is quite slim.

GO Jays! Been posting here, generally rarely in the past few years, for 10-12 years. I'm actually a bit nervous this afternoon waiting for the game. Which I will only get to watch a bit of, but I'll be following along. Are the old active chat windows still kicking around somewhere?

The Jays in the postseason, a full series and everything. Wow!

One thing occurred to me - the AL is down to warm weather cities (+ the dome) - hopefully none of those terrible 0-5 degree baseball games where everyone is freezing. Baseball is not a great cold weather game, hated playing it and don't like watching it.

downtown is all blue. it's amazing.

Good luck to the Jays - my stress level is about to go up a notch - despite his mediocre season, I'm a little uneasy about Gallardo because his confidence level must be sky high given his performance against the Jays this Year & in sports confidence is such a big factor - I hope the jays get to him early.

That looked a little better. Shaking off the rust.

Good inning from price, but time for some BASE RUNNERS

Martin Perez will actually starts game 3. Game 4 will depends on who wins today.

How does Donaldson look after that collision?

Well, I wouldn't call him handsome but he is a pretty good ball player.

Perhaps we can agree that it's time to sit breaking ball.

That was a fair point about Beltre's replacement being rusty. Since September 1, Alberto has had two plate appearances and played 8 innings in the field (at three different positions.)

Jays' hitters are very jumpy, playing into Gallardo's hands. A healthy Beltre and I'm not sure they score. And poor Price is continuing his post-season troubles.

Lots of time to turn this around, especially absent a shutdown Ranger bullpen.

Anyone else sick of Harold Reynolds yet? That's one very low signal to noise ratio.

That's one very low signal to noise ratio.

He sure makes a lot of noise. A lot of sound and fury, signifying...

Is Carrera playing third? Is this a 5 inning game?

Sounds like Pennington will come in..

Anyone else sick of Harold Reynolds yet?

A couple weeks ago, I said "Joe West is the worst."

I'd like to retract that statement.

Starting to wonder if all that rest wasn't counter-productive..

Well, I'm pretty tired of Rough Ned.

Yeah, he stinks.

Pennington due up in the 8th. Whatcha gonna do?

Hopefully, bunt the runners into scoring position.

The pitching pattern to Odor probably was supposed to be get ahead on heat inside and then get him to chase outside stuff in the dirt.  Not a bad idea, but Odor is pretty tough.  I think he needs some more off-speed stuff down.  Give him a little Gallardo treatment.

The very aggressive play would be to pinch-hit Colabello for Pennington (may be the only chance for Cola to hit) and then to either put Martin at 2nd / Goins at 3rd... or as a really long shot, put Edwin in at 3rd (yikes!) and lose the DH. Maybe too much of a stretch for the 1st game of the playoffs... and Pennington isn't THAT bad of a hitter.

Depends on who is up when, I guess..

Cola in for Pennington, Pompey in for Cola to OF (figure out exact alignment with Revere, Pillar, Pompey), Jose to 3B..

Nice inning by Cecil. Attacking the three lefties with his unhittable curveball, and pitching around Napoli.

Donaldson and Bautista both out. Somehow unsurprising.

We knew she was trouble.

I didn't.  Pulling Gallardo early was a smart move. 

I don't really care about the outcome of one game, even a playoff game. I do care about Donaldson and Bautista's health - Donaldson's in particular.

Donaldson has passed the concussion protocol and both Donaldson and Batista expected to play tomorrow, according to the radio.

Sounds like they're both expected to be back tomorrow.

Get 'em tomorrow.

And that's why winning the division was so important.

Before the series I predicted Toronto in five. I say they win tomorrow, split in Texas, and win it on Wednesday.

Want some good news? Of course you do!

Just as Gallardo has owned the Blue Jays, the Jays have owned Cole Hamels: 0-2, 6.97 in 4 career starts against Toronto, 32 hits and 6 HR in 20.2 IP.

straight up choke by price. no other way to say it.

just one loss though.

Let's see how Donaldson is feeling tomorrow. Playing through a concussion is a recipe for disaster.

Price had excellent stuff, but very shaky command (and command generally trumps stuff.) It does look like the 11 days off may not have been the best idea...

Hopefully Donaldson is still feeling well tomorrow (passing the concussion protocols immediately afterwards guarantees nothing, I'm afraid.)

They didn't always have these protocols. In Game 4 of the 1934 World Series (I remember it well), the Cardinals superstar pitcher Dizzy Dean was pinch-running. He also was determined to break up a double play. Dean intercepted the shortstop's relay to first with his head. He was knocked unconscious, as you might expect, and carried off the field by his teammates. And while the next day's papers happily reported that "X-Rays of Dean's Head Reveal Nothing" I'm pretty sure he was concussed.

But those were the days when men were men and brain injuries were no big deal. Dean was knocked out on a Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, Dean pitched 8 innings (he lost 3-1), and on Tuesday (one day's rest!) he pitched a complete game shutout to win game seven.

Every time I try to change my negative nancy ways this stuff happens. Hope the boys bounce back tomorrow. We're going to hear a lot about the 11 days off I'm sure though.

Price says it was nerves more than the layoff. Very unusual to hear a major leaguer fess up to that.

How many games has he played in the playoffs already in his career? That's not really a good excuse. Has it been all nerves all the other times he's not performed in the playoffs?

Well, his career playoff record does seem to suggest that the occasion is too big for him. If Stroman pitches well tomorrow, I'd go back with him and not Price in a game five situation.

looked like nerves to me.

that was not the usual smiling happy price out there. right from the start.

Maybe someone should get Price some beta blockers.

Jays in 3? Wrong. I'll take my share of the blame along with Taylor Swift, Sports Illustrated and David Price. Tomorrow is another day.

Maybe someone should get Price some beta blockers.

Or some Odor Eaters.

Someone up thread already said it, as did someone from that horrible announcing team (and multiple people, including me, during the last week of the season)...

Sitting Price for 11 days was a bad move.

But now that is done with. Time to bounce back tomorrow.

Looks like Stroman's pitching on 8 days rest, Estrada also, and Dickey presumably the same.

Hopefully Donaldson and Bautista are at least 80%+ for tomorrow's game..

Price was charged with two runs after Goins vacated second-base on what may (hopefully?) have been a misguided and botched pick-off play. Otherwise, that's an easy inning and a different game.

It seemed clear to me that Martin was going to throw down to 2nd, that's why Goins was cheating to the bag. Not sure I'd say that's misguided, just another example of Texas Magic (or Rangers Luck, or...) Chirinos and Odor hitting home runs falls in the same category.

Don't forget that our first run wouldn't have happened if Beltre didn't leave the same. He easily handles that double play ball and the barehanded play as well.

Of course, Donaldson wouldn't have left the game as well.

12 days ago, Price gave up 5 runs in 5 innings.  That was with 4 days rest, after throwing 114 pitches vs. NYY.  Box: http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=350926114

I heard (on the radio I think) that Price didn't do a tune up start in part because he had a cold, and that the flu bug has been around the team recently.

It is unusual for someone who is both a CY Young Candidate and heading into Free Agency to skip his last start. Perhaps he figured he would finish in second either way.

Price is now 0-6 in the playoffs as a starter with 8 home runs allowed in 41.1 IP, and 3 of those losses have come against the Rangers. Obviously we are dealing with a relatively small sample size, but that's still quite shocking for a pitcher as good as him.

This will be a tough series to win. The Rangers have a good bullpen and offense. The Jays only chance will be to hit their SP's, and getting 2 runs in 5 innings off a mediocre Gallardo is not going to cut it.

..another example of Texas Magic (or Rangers Luck, or...) Chirinos and Odor hitting home runs falls in the same category.

Underestimating the opposition? Or just a bad scouting report? These guys should not be thought of as the Texas equivalents of Thole and Goins. They're more like Navarro and Travis.

Jamey Newberg, who I'm following on twitter for the playoffs, links to this interesting article on Jeff Banister, the first year Texas manager who had a very good game yesterday.

It seemed clear to me that Martin was going to throw down to 2nd, that's why Goins was cheating to the bag. Not sure I'd say that's misguided, just another example of Texas Magic (or Rangers Luck, or...)

Goins broke for the bag to take a pick off throw that never came. With Deshields at the plate against Price, there was a better chance that a slapped ball was going to go through the hole at second (leaving aside the possibility of a sailed throw into the outfield) than a successful pick off was going to occur. That's one of the main reasons managers call a hit and run play, to open up a hole at the spot of the infielder covering. Here the Jays created the hole themselves, although of course without the batter having the advantage of knowing it was coming.

Odor and Chirinos definitely have pop, as their numbers attest.  The Rangers hit 172 home runs this year, 7th in the league, but it was divided evenly around the lineup.  Odor had a higher slugging percentage than Prince Fielder or Adrian Beltre...

Odor hit 16 home runs during the season, so it's not a complete surprise for him to get into one. Chirinos's numbers were, admittedly, better than I thought when I looked them up, so I guess it's a bad scouting report.

If you look at the Texas bullpen from the seasonal perspective, it looks pretty miserable.  On the other hand, Diekman and Dyson look impressive.  Both had significant control issues in the National League earlier this year and got right soon after arrival in Texas.  With Mike Maddux as pitching coach and Greg Maddux as special assistant to the GM, Texas' success with these pitchers perhaps should not come as too much of a surprise.

Game 2 line-up has been posted - Donaldson and Bautista are in it... only change is Colabello in for Smoak.

So... good news to start the day.

Donaldson is in the lineup. Sigh of relief, while hoping he really is okay.

Beltre not in for the Rangers.

DeShields 8
Choo 9
Fielder DH
Moreland 3
Andrus 6
Hamilton 7
Odor 4
Gimenez 2
Alberto 5

Gibbons also flip-flopped Pillar and Goins in the lineup, with Goins and Revere sitting next to each other.  Presumably if a LOOGY comes on late in a close game, they'll pinch-hit for Goins. 

It was very honest of Price to admit to being nervous. From my vantage point in the 5th deck, it looked like he was having trouble getting pitches to break over the first-base corner of the plate. He was wild there a few times in the early innings, and of course he hit Odor twice.

How luck affects runs allowed: consider these two Price pitching lines, one from the 2014 ALDS and last night's:

8 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 SO
7 IP, 5 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 SO

That's not a lot different, but Price only gave up two runs in the first outing, as compared to five last night. Had Goins not broken for second on the miscommunicated pickoff attempt, or had EE managed to keep his long blast fair, it would have been a different game.

As for Donaldson: you'd probably have to put him in chains to keep him out of the lineup today.

True, Dave.  Chirinos' homer was definitely "just enough", too.

Oddity: Josh Donaldson has not yet faced Cole Hamels in his career. 

i think all of us who have put our backs out would be shocked to see beltre back this series. of course, donaldson being back in doesn't mean he's necessarily good to go either.

I wanted to look into relevant team history versus Hamels. There is really only one game that fits the bill: May 6th of last year where he went 6 innings giving up 10 hits and 5 earned runs while striking out 6 and walking 1. Both Encarnacion and Bautista got a pair of hits off of Hamels (one of Encarnacion's was a HR).

Toronto beat Philadelphia 6-5 on a sac fly by Juan Francisco in the top of the 9th. Most interesting was the guy who got the win coming out of the bullpen to pitch 1.1 innings of scoreless ball...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201405060.shtml

Interesting article here on Stroman and his attitude on the mound.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/10/08/blue-jays-starter-marcus-stroman-harnesses-hate-to-unleash-the-heat.html