This game has one goal - get Buehrle his 9 innings. 3 up 3 down first is a great way to start.

The full regular lineup is there, including Tulowitzki.

I'd say this game has two goals.

1) score as many runs as possible
2) preventing as few as possible

It would be nice to put up a lot of runs this weekend.

Nice first AB for Tulo. It's really great to have him back in the lineup.

I don't think a Leafs fan would be competent to decide anything within reasonable doubt.

Looks like Buehrle might go 6 or 7 innings today.  Sunday might be a good day to see how he looks from the bullpen for a couple of innings. 

you send burly out for the 7th?

Obviously he's already out there but I like it. Let him go as long as he can.

4-1 turns into 8-4 just like that. This team is insane.

That Pillar catch btw... wow.

Love. This. Team.

I wonder how often - if ever - a team has left its two top winners out of the post-season rotation. Which seems very likely to happen, and I don't see how you can really argue with it.

A consistency question.

Normally a starting pitcher on the Sunday before the July All-Star Break is considered unavailable to pitch in the Tuesday All-Star Game, even for 1 inning.

So why is Buehrle considered available to pitch 2 innings on one day's rest after throwing 103 pitches?

Normally a starting pitcher on the Sunday before the July All-Star Break is considered unavailable to pitch in the Tuesday All-Star Game, even for 1 inning.

That's a recent rule, imposed by the league offices. Before that, some All-Star managers were very willing indeed to use other team's pitchers in the All-Star Game on one day's rest. Sparky Anderson was religious about using the pitchers from every team his team was competing with. Never missed an opportunity.

Learn to talk about apples and apples or about oranges and oranges.

Pitching on a Sunday, then in the All Star Game on a Tuesday is not favourably looked upon because generally need him to Pitch the remainder of the Season. As a result, possible injury risk prevents that from happening.

Mark Buehrle could very well retire and not play next year. If injured, he has the entire offseason to recover. He might not make the Postseason roster. If he does, the earliest he would pitch would be the 11th. If I have a choice, I'd rather have Marco Estrada pitching that game.

If Mark Buehrle pitches 2 innings on Sunday, he'll be going for his 15th straight year of 200 innings. If he wants to pitch, who should prevent him?

After Saturday's game, we should learn the Playoff Roster. The Jays don't have to set the roster that soon, because injuries can still occur. What that suggests to me is Sunday's game will be another AAA lineup. I want the Regulars in if K.C. has not been eliminated. But not a weak lineup if they have. Buehrle gets 2.0 innings, if he wants; with Price, Stroman and Dickey getting an inning or two if they want. Absolutely no reason to not go for a sweep of Tampa Bay and try for 95 wins.

how come they never wear the greys on the road anymore, the jersey that says "Toronto" on it?

I believe they started wearing the blues and then started winning. No sense messing with that.

I could be wrong - but I think the Jays won't name their postseason roster until they know their opponent for the ALDS. They don't have to submit the roster until Thursday morning... and perhaps the final roster spot could be determined by their opponent's quality of LH hitters (Yankees > Astros > Angels, IMO). You could make a case to go with just one lefty (Cecil), or two (+Loup), or even three (+Buehrle as the 8th bullpen man).

September has been Loup's best month by far. Six weeks ago, he was a lost cause. But I think he's earned the right to be the 2nd lefty in the pen. We'll see...

September 2014 maybe.  He hasn't given up a run but baserunners in 4 2/3 IP isn't pretty.  I could see Buehrle as the LOOGY over Loup.  He's struggled a touch this year vs. lefties but does have a career advantage over them.

So what goals do Jay players have other than WOrld Series now?

Buehrle: 200 IP, needs 2 IP.
Encarnacion: 2 HR to reach 40
Smoak: 2 HR to reach 20, 3 to set career best 21.
Martin: 2 HR to reach 25, already has career best
Martin: 3 SB to reach 100 in his career

That seems to be it for potentially reachable goals with 2 games to go. Martin 3 SB might be stretching it but close enough to mention. At this point I'd say screw it give him the start on Sunday and see if he can get 2 innings in. Why the heck not?

whoops, my post is missing a key number - Loup has allowed 8 baserunners in 4 2/3 IP this month.

".....give him the start on Sunday and see if he can get 2 innings in. Why the heck not?....."

That would be a very nice gesture to Buehrle, but it could cost the Jays their home-field advantage against the Royals.  The Royals are leading the Twins in today's game.  If they win, the Jays have to beat Chris Archer and then hope to do as well as the Royals tomorrow, which might require another win.  Individual honors have to take a lower priority.  I think Buehrle would fully understand that too.

Now, if the Jays do beat Chris Archer today (which is far from impossible -- they've done it before without too much trouble), and if the Twins manage to make a comeback against the Royals today to ensure that the Jays have the overall AL title, then sure, let Buehrle have his 2 innings tomorrow.

So if the Jays are tied with KC going into Sunday, who will start? I've seen the point made on some interview, maybe with Dan Shulman, that playing the wild card team is an advantage in that this team will most likely used their best pitcher in the wild card game, thus making him unavailable for the start of the 5 game series. With that in mind, would the Jays start Stroman whose arm is fresh and seems to be really getting in the groove? I think it is important to finish first overall, and I would hate to see the B-team playing with this at stake. Hopefully KC will lose today and the Jays win to make all this irrelevant.

Stroman is not starting on three days rest. I expect to see Hutchison.

Hutchinson on two days rest? Or Dickey on three days rest? Or just some combination of Francis/Jenkins/Schultz/Delabar/Tepera?

Barry Davis
@SNBarryDavis

AA says they have pretty much decided on 25 man post season roster. Won't name names but #bluejays will have 4 starters, 7 relievers.

BarryDavis
@SNBarryDavis

AA says Hutchison is set to start tomorrow but they will do what they can to get Buehrle his final 2 innings #bluejays

The Angels played the tired Wild Card team last post season and got swept, while the division winning Orioles had to play Scherzer/Verlander/Price and won in 3 games.

It's baseball. Whether the Jays end up facing the Rangers or Yankees/Astros/Angels, they still have to play at a high level. Let the chips fall where they may.

The winning pitcher for the Angels in today's miracle comeback?

Jo-Jo Reyes. He threw one pitch today, and retired Price Fielder to finish the 8th inning with his team down by four runs.

You remember Jo-Jo. He once went 28 starts over four years (2008-2011) without winning a game. So it's getting easier.

You know, I think I'd be comfortable with Estrada pitching for the Jays the next few seasons. He kind of reminds me of Jimmy Key, in that he doesn't dominate via power pitching, and always seems to be overshadowed by one or another rotation mate, but quietly gives an effective, if underrated, performance.

I's love to get him at 3/40, but wouldn't freak out if they gave him 4/60

Me and my big mouth :)

It would be icing for the Jays to secure home field advantage in the ALCS, but I respect the team's decision to rest players instead of going all-out in an effort to finish first overall in the AL. They might still be able to have their cake and eat it too, depending how tomorrow's games play out. Even if they don't, a healthy, rested Jays roster will be tough to beat in any playoff series, ALCS or otherwise.

Gibby says Buehrle's going to start tomorrow if he feels up for it in the morning.

Assuming the Rangers don't blow the AL West, they're looking like a nice opponent for the ALDS.

Especially that they spend Hamels tomorrow as well.

Rumours of Buehrle retiring after his two innings tomorrow as well as he's not on the 25 man playoff roster.

I don't know if it's true or not, but it's picking up some steam.

I've seen several of those reports too, seeming to come out of Chicago. Had to laugh at one source though, Bruce Levine from a Chicago radio staion & sports website. He posted two tweets, spelling Buehrle's name two different ways, both wrong! https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine

Doesn't make much sense given possiity of injury etc which could change the roster during the playoffs.

Bruce Levine is the only source of this rumour, quoting "senior MLB sources" (whatever that means). He is a creditable source and would certainly know Buehrle from his ChiSox days... but I find it hard to believe for two reasons:

1. Why we he retire now before the post-season? It would be unprecedented (I think) and would be a distraction for the team... it would be a selfish move from someone who seems very unselfish.

2. There is (hopefully) more than one playoff roster and players can be added during a series in the event of an injury + DL stint. He's almost certainly the "5th starter" if one of the top 4 gets hurt... and he would have to be considered for the bullpen if we needed to add another arm.

Buehrle is starting today on 1 day rest! I'm sure it's not the first time, but there can't be many other instances in modern baseball of a pitcher starting TWICE in one 3-game series.

Fresh 25 roster for DS, CS & WS I believe.

"....Why we he retire now before the post-season? It would be unprecedented (I think)...."

Even if the Levine report is correct, Buehrle wouldn't be retiring instantaneously.  He would merely be announcing that he would retire at the end of the season.  (As, for example, Hawkins has already done.)  So he would continue to be available in the playoffs if there is an unexpected injury or sudden need for him.  Rosters can be revised at the end of each series, and he would obviously remain available if the Jays need him.  He's a team guy -- he's not going to abandon the team when they might need him!

Plus, of course, every player wants to retire a winner. He'd want to be on the World Series roster so he could go out on top.

Buehrle is listed as the starter for today's game, so that appears to be true. I still don't believe the retirement rumour, not to mention none of the Jays' writers have picked up on the story.

Whether Buehrle was on the roster or not, he would still be going out a winner. He's not some guy that played a couple games, he's a huge part of this team and just because you don't need 5 starters in the post season doesn't make him any less of a 2015 Blue Jay.

I gotta think a Chicago sports broadcaster loses a lot of credibility, writing about "Buehle" and "Buerlhe".

I'd be pretty surprised if his report is true, but I guess we'll see soon. Hoping for a fine two innings from an impressive player.

Sunday trivia question: only two pitchers currently on the Blue Jays roster have saved a game in the postseason. Who are they?

Sunday trivia question

Good one. One I knew, remembering the game in question (and I imagine many people will). The other one I had to look up. Hint to everyone: though Hawkins has pitched forever, don't waste time looking up his stats. He ain't number two.

Hawkins has pitched forever, don't waste time looking up his stats. He ain't number two.

I got one,but yeah, my other other guess was LaTroy.

I also got one and assumed LaTroy was the other. How many Jays pitchers have actually pitched in the post season? 4?

without looking, i'm gonna guess price and buehrle, mostly because they're the only 2 i'm sure have even been in the playoffs.

I think five have post season experience, and Dickey is not one of the five.

Estada is the 5th. Do not remember that.

Forgot one, 6 have been to the playoffs.

Post-season:

Price: 40 IP, 4.50 ERA
Buehrle: 31 IP, 4.11 ERA
Francis: 17 IP, 4.86 ERA
Hawkins: 16 IP, 3.45 ERA
Estrada: 6 IP, 6.00 ERA
Lowe: 2 IP, 37.80 ERA

It seems to me that it would be ideal to back off on Osuna's usage for the playoffs. I would try to keep him on a 1 or 2 day rest regime as far as possible. So give him the 9th inning of Games 1,3 and 5 of the ALDS and Lowe the 9th of Games 2 and 4.

Sometimes you have to do things a little differently in the playoffs.

That seems very unlikely, unless Osuna blows a lead.

This is embarrassing. I'm certainly looking forward the games being treated seriously again.

Welp. That didn't go as planned.

Sadness. Only one of those runs was earned. The umpire was squeezing the strike zone, which didn't help.

And that last run counts as unearned in the team total but as an earned run against Tepera.

Tepera has now allowed 8 HRs in 32 IP, which is about as bad as it gets.

I'm certainly looking forward the games being treated seriously again.

Indeed. This could have been an interesting afternoon. Not so much now. The score is 9-0, the same as losing by default. Which feels appropriate.

This Tepera-for-the-playoffs talk baffles me. He is now up to 8 HR in 32 IP. His decent ERA is a result of a .167 BABIP.

Only one of those runs was earned.

Only because the scoring rules give a pitcher carte blanche to be terrible once 3 outs should have been recorded. The defense was to blame for extending the inning, but Buerhle was full value for the damage thereafter (which would have theoretically come in his 2nd inning, and been earned runs, were it not for the errors).

Interestingly, the run off Tepera is earned for him but unearned for the team (if that's still the way that's scored).

The umpire was squeezing the strike zone, which didn't help.

Well, a little squeezing, but not as much as the bellyaching warranted. The bench was squawking for a strike on a pitch 2-3 inches inside.

Okay, I'm doing nothing but repeating everything Magpie is saying now.

Say goodnight, Gracie.

I'm certainly looking forward the games being treated seriously again.

Indeed. This could have been an interesting afternoon. Not so much now.

The Jays didn't have a lot of real pitching options today, given that they are saving Price for the ALDS. Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, and Hutchison were all on short rest - might as well see if the Jays can get some innings out of Buehrle, since he's not likely to start in the first series.

Actually, all of the runs off Buehrle were unearned - I misread the boxscore.

In unrelated news, let's have a moment of sympathy for Braves pitcher Shelby Miller - he went into today's game with an ERA of 3.15 and a record of 5-17, having lost 16 consecutive games. He decided that enough was enough, and pitched a shutout today. (Yes, he is in my baseball pool - why did you ask?)

sympathy for Braves pitcher Shelby Miller

Shades of Nolan Ryan winning the ERA title in Houston while going 8-16.

Ah, the wisdom of Buck. It will be a long winter without him. "Harper has missed a lot of time. He has 100 fewer AB than Dee Gordon."

Coming into today's play, Harper had 650 PA, Gordon 649.

There's only one way to interpret the events of today and last Wednesday and Thursday:  the Jays managers have decided that first place in the AL doesn't matter at all.  They really didn't make the slightest effort to win any of those 3 games.  That's fine, it was a deliberate decision, and there's some basis for it, since it would only matter for a very hypothetical 7th game against the Royals, which is unlikely to happen anyway.  But I still find it a little surprising and a little annoying, because I thought the AL title did matter -- a tiny bit, at least.   Let's hope it doesn't come back to bite them.  I agree with those who say that it's unlikely to matter.  I know it helps to protect the regulars from injury.  And I know other playoff teams often do similar things at this time of year.  I still find it a little surprising that the Jays would deliberately punt 3 games.

better to go into the playoffs grumpy than cocky.

and texas is probably the weakest of the playoff teams (and have lost any of the momentum they may have had), so hopefully they hang on today.

Rangers opening up a big lead in their game.

Looks like Toronto vs Texas

astros tie it up. yanks in danger of losing home field for the WC.

"...better to go into the playoffs grumpy than cocky...."

Fair point.  They will indeed be grumpy, after losing 4 of their past 5 games.  And to be fair, none of those punted games will have any impact on the Jays who might be the most important of all:  Price, Dickey, Stroman and Estrada.  If the starters do their job, I'm pretty confident that the lineup will produce the runs. 

It wasn't all for nothing. Now they can cut tie with Buehrle  knowing they got everything he had to give. He got the biggest paycheck he could get, he was appreciated and respected and he was happy in Toronto--to his own surprise. That's also a fresh reminder of what happens all too often with pitchers on short rest.

Let's focus on the next series.

Probable SP Matchups with last 2yrs stats:


Thursday @ TOR

Price 66gs, 7.1ip/gs, 74era-, 71fip-
Gallardo 65gs, 5.8ip/gs, 86era-, 99fip-

Friday @ TOR

Stroman 24gs, 6.1ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-
Hamels 62gs, 6.7ip/gs, 79era-, 83fip-

Saturday OFF

Sunday @ TEX

Dickey 66gs, 6.4ip/gs, 96era-, 111fip-
Lewis 62gs, 6.1ip/gs, 118era-, 107fip-

Monday @ TEX (if nec.)

Estrada 46gs, 6.0ip/gs, 100era-, 124fip-
Perez 22gs, 5.9ip/gs, 106era-, 87fip-

(OR on 3 days rest:

Price 66gs, 7.1ip/gs, 74era-, 71fip-
Gallardo 65gs, 5.8ip/gs, 86era-, 99fip-)

Tuesday OFF

Wednesday @ TOR (if nec.)

Price 66gs, 7.1ip/gs, 74era-, 71fip-
(or Stroman 24gs, 6.1ip/gs, 77era-, 75fip-)
Hamels 62gs, 6.7ip/gs, 79era-, 83fip-

Just checking in on them that got away...

Reyes in Colorado (humidor or not, still a great hitter's park): 260/292/370

Reyes ends his year with 116 games played and an OPS+ of around 85, his lowest since age 22. Both FG and BBRef have his 2015 as barely above replacement level. He is owed 48MM for the next two seasons.

That's also a fresh reminder of what happens all too often with pitchers on short rest.

Short rest is one thing. One day's rest, well, that's something else entirely.

So, Jays vs Texas and KC vs NY/Hou

I assume if NY wins the wildcard, the Jays game on Thurs will be 4pm?

I assume if NY wins the wildcard, the Jays game on Thurs will be 4pm?

I'm thinking that the Royals game is at 8 PM regardless of opponent. If it's the Yankees, that would be a slam dunk to get the coveted night time start. But even if it's not, the Royals themselves have the cachet of last year's WS appearance, to say nothing of the top mark in the AL, to get that time slot.

"There's only one way to interpret the events of today and last Wednesday and Thursday: the Jays managers have decided that first place in the AL doesn't matter at all. They really didn't make the slightest effort to win any of those 3 games. That's fine, it was a deliberate decision, and there's some basis for it, since it would only matter for a very hypothetical 7th game against the Royals, which is unlikely to happen anyway."

Punting 3 games in the last week of the season seems a lot for sure, when there was something to play for. While it's true the obvious impact of #1 seed vs #2 seed is the potential game 7 in the ALCS vs KC. The other thing is who would you rather play for the ALDS, the Rangers or the Yankees/Astros?

Rangers having the 2nd best AL record post all-star and facing Gallardo whom the Blue Jays haven't figured out thus far might seem cause of some concern. However, in the playoffs you're playing all the good teams, so I guess the concept of preferred matchups likely means little. Quite often the best laid plans wind up back firing anyways so you let the chips fall where they may and play whomever it is.

Will be interesting with best of 5 ALDS, how the rotation will be set up, 3 man or 4 man rotation. Dickey at home or on the road.

Now they can cut tie with Buehrle  knowing they got everything he had to give

I know lots of people have wanted to cut ties with Buehrle (or at least his contract) since we got him, but I think it's entirely possible that we offer him a QO, and it's entirely possible that he takes it.  Right now, I'm sure lots of players are feeling pretty good about this team and city.

I just don't see Keuchel losing to the Yanks.

Wild Card

HOU def NYY

ALDS

TOR def TEX in 4gms
HOU def KCR in 6gms

ALCS

TOR def HOU in 6gms

WS

TOR def PIT in 6gms

I just don't see Keuchel losing to the Yanks.

Clayton Kershaw has lost his last 4 playoff starts (admittedly after 2 very good ones), allowing 18 ER in 23 IP. This after regular season ERAs of 1.83 and 1.77.

There are no sure things. Also, the Yanks have just activated Bucky Dent.

TOR def PIT in 6gms

So you do see the Arrieta losing to the Pirates? He has allowed 4 earned runs in his past 12 starts! (Yes, I know, no sure things. Said it myself.)

It will be interesting to see how the baby Jays (Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna) handle the playoff pressure. How they do could make or break the team's WS chances.

ALDS is best of 5 series. Can't go 6 games like you predicted!

While Texas was fending off their division hopes Toronto was giving away games for parties and stat padding for Buerle. We've now won only 1 of out our last 5 games heading into the playoffs and the team simply does not look ready or prepared.

lol

I'm with you uglyone mostly but a few details different:

HOU def NYY

ALDS

TOR def TEX in 3gms
KCR def HOU 4gms

ALCS

TOR def KCR in 5gms

WS

TOR def LA in 6gms

So, perhaps today was indeed Buehrle's last appearance this year. According to John Lott, "The veteran lefty, 36, said he has been told he will not be on the playoff roster and he understands why."

http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-regular-season-ends-on-sour-note-as-mark-buehrle-fails-to-reach-200-innings-in-loss-to-tampa-bay-rays

And Bautista I imagine spoke for a lot of Jays: "that man deserved that shot that he got today to get 200 innings".

So I assume it will be Colby Lewis against Price in the first game on Thursday, with Hamels starting on Friday against... Stroman?

On second thought, Gallardo is the obvious choice to open for Texas.

"So you do see the Arrieta losing to the Pirates? He has allowed 4 earned runs in his past 12 starts! (Yes, I know, no sure things. Said it myself.)"

heh. you got me. I didn't think the NL through. just picked a team with my hefty gut.

Last year, the Thursday game times were 5:37p (DET@BAL) and 9:07p (KCR@LAA).

Last year, the Friday game times were 12:07p (DET@BAL), 3:07p (SFG@WAS), 6:37p (STL@LAD) and 9:37p (KCR@LAA).

Ref: http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/09/26/2014-mlb-postseason-schedule-start-times-tv

Expect the Jays games to always get the afternoon start times as the US won't be thrilled about the Jays since the Toronto market is outside their zone.

I figure the US networks want to see NY win every round, KC out ASAP, Toronto out ASAP, would not be wanting a Texas/Houston ALCS but would prefer it to KC or Toronto. Mets to go to the WS vs the Yankees, or the Cubs vs Yankees, St Louis to be out soon, same with Pittsburgh, Dodgers vs Yankees is their wet dream.

So the US networks are cheering on the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees while booing the rest.

Myself I'd love a Jays/Royals ALCS, Jays/Dodgers or Jays/Cubs World Series. A Jays/Yankees ALCS followed by Jays/Mets WS would be fun too especially if the Jays win both thus annoying every New Yorker.

Buerhle has confirmed that he won't be on the playoff roster.  And Gibbons has said he favors 4 starters and 7 relievers for the playoffs.  So, at this point, it appears that Loup will be the 7th man in the bullpen (alongside the obvious Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Hawkins, Lowe and Hendriks).  It also suggests that the 5-man bench will include both Carrera and Pompey, along with the obvious Colabello, Navarro and Pennington.  (Tulo seems healthy, so there's no need for two back-up infielders. There's also no need for 5 outfielders, but Pompey and Carrera would be on the roster partly as pinch-runners.)  Anyway it won't be confirmed for another day or so, but that seems the likely playoff lineup at this point.

Having a LOOGY makes a lot of sense vs the Rangers with Fielder, Choo, Moreland, Odor, Hamilton all regulars. Thus why I see Loup having a spot on the roster.

Weird seeing Delino DeShields on a team roster. His dad was a top player for the Expos in the early 90's and was traded for Pedro Martinez (1 for 1 deal) - not a popular trade at that moment as DeShields Sr was a top leadoff man with a 373 OBP to that point while playing 2B and stealing 40+ a year while Pedro was a middle reliever for the Dodgers. The Expos who back then were run by very smart people, moved Pedro to the rotation while DeShields had a 344 OBP for the rest of his career.

Should be a fun series. Rangers almost have to have Cole Hammels as one of their starters and the Jays love LHP.

Is there an easy way to stream the playoffs in Canada if you're a cord-cutter? I've got mlb.tv, but I don't think that gives you access to the post-season. Is that correct?

I think existing mlb.tv subscribers have to buy a post-season package. When I bought my subscription, it was identified as "Watch every out-of-market regular season game".

In the US, post-season package has to be done through a PayTV provider, but internationally can be bought direct for $24.99
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?&affiliateId=MLBTVREDIRECT

I lived in Peru one postseason and I bought the international package for $24.99, it was great.

That being said, I think Canada is not treated as US or International. I actually think that the playoffs are included in the Canada MLB.TV, check this source.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/wiki/mlb_tv

2/22/15 Edit: Although the entirety of Canada remains SUBJECT to blackout as described above, as of 2013, Rogers Communications has opted not to enforce blackouts throughout Canada. This means that for the past two seasons, Canada has not had any blackouts and thus have been able to watch all Blue Jays, All-star and playoff games hassle-free in their entireties. However, keep in mind that Rogers retains the ability to enforce blackouts if they so choose, and this could possibly change in the future. TL;DR: no blackouts in Canada in 2013 or 2014, and hopefully not in the future but anything can happen.

"While Texas was fending off their division hopes Toronto was giving away games for parties and stat padding for Buerle. We've now won only 1 of out our last 5 games heading into the playoffs and the team simply does not look ready or prepared."

This. 100% this.

I'll be cheering as hard as anybody, but I also can't help but feel that if they lose, it is their own damned fault.

Good thing there's zero correlation between how a team finishes the regular season and how they perform in the playoffs.

There is a direct 1:1 correlation between where a team finishes in the regular season and who that team faces in the play-offs.

Well Toronto's performance the last week made the Rangers their opponent. So there is certainly a direct correlation here. If Toronto does lose to Texas I expect there to be a lot of talk about that. Hopefully we get to Gallardo and take it anyway, but Toronto by their actions chose their opponent, for better or worse.

Final fWAR mlb ranks. (pitcher war is average of fip and ra9 war)

TOR

Top-15 (2): 3.Donaldson 8.6, 11.Price 6.8
Top-30 (2): ---
Top-60 (5): 41.En'cion 4.6, 47.Bautista 4.4, 58.Pillar 4.2
Top-90 (6): 84.Martin 3.5
Top-120 (8): 98.Estrada 3.2, 120. R.Dickey 2.8

TB

Top-15 (0): ---
Top-30 (1): 22.Kiermaier 5.4
Top-60 (4): 37.Archer 4.8, 52.Longoria 4.3, 60.Forsythe 4.1
Top-90 (4): ---
Top-120 (5): 92.Odorizzi 3.3

BAL

Top-15 (1): 10.Machado 6.8
Top-30 (2): 20.Davis 5.5
Top-60 (0): ---
Top-90 (4): 76.Jones 3.6, 80.Chen 3.5

BOS

Top-15 (0): ---
Top-30 (0): ---
Top-60 (2): 35.Betts 4.8, 54.Bogaerts 4.3
Top-90 (2): ---
Top-120 (2): ---

NYY

Top-15 (0): ---
Top-30 (0): ---
Top-60 (0): ---
Top-90 (0): ---
Top-120 (4): 99.Gregorius 3.1, 104.Betances 3.0, 112.McCann 2.9, 116.Teixeira 2.9

"but Toronto by their actions chose their opponent"

Well not entirely, had the final games for the Rangers and Astros gone differently, we could have conceivably be looking at playing the Astros in the ALDS. Punting the 3 games only guaranteed that they wouldn't play the Yankees in the ALDS.

The advantages of being the #1 seed is home field advantage and having the wild card team burning their top starter. The potential disadvantage of being the #1 seed is you're playing a team that coming off a win with less rust vs the 3 day layoff.

iirc Wildcard winners have a very good playoff recors

That's true cruzin, but really Texas had to got like 4 straight losses to lose the West. Angels made it close, but really the odds for Texas winning the West mid week were like 95%+. So Toronto knew if they didn't have HFA they would play the Rangers. They decided that didn't matter and they got them. I think it is a toss up between Texas and Houston in how much I'd want to face each, but the chance of playing a real beat up Yankee squad is worth something I think.

The two teams that scared me the most were the Angels and Yankees (though Sabathia's news today mitigates the latter a bit).

Rangers > Royals is what I'm hoping for. So far, so good!

Honestly not too worried about the punts, parties, and days off. These guys are pros, and the rest should do them well (they'll still certainly be practicing every day). As for the different opponent, I tend to think that if we can't beat any team we don't deserve to go to the end. No point worrying too much about it. If anything, by pythagorean win loss the Rangers are closer to a .500 team (a bit under 82 wins), while the Astros for example are a 93 win team. (While on the topic the Yankees are an 88 win team according to those metrics).

Oh, and we were a 103 win team! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

"Angels made it close, but really the odds for Texas winning the West mid week were like 95%+. So Toronto knew if they didn't have HFA they would play the Rangers."

Yup the odds were certainly up there that it would be the Rangers. I believe that the Rangers could be the hardest opponent. But I've gotten over the idea of getting what you wish for as it might come back to bite you anyways.

The only thing that bugs me is whether Gallardo can keep up his confounding act against the Blue Jays. We'll find out that answer very quickly in the first game

Not to mention we were going to have Mon, Tues, & Wed off regardless, so if you believe that momentum is a thing you'd probably then believe that it would be gone by Thurs.

Sidenote: is there a jurasic park type thing planned for thursday? outside viewing location with a bunch of crazies?

"Oh, and we were a 103 win team! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/"

LOL the funny thing is, even with our great record post all-star, Gibbons still managed to lose ground against the Pythagorean W-L!

Interesting to see by 3rd order wins (their most adjusted method) you get the Jays at 101.2 wins, Houston 97.6, Cleveland 92.8 (not in playoffs), Yankees 89.1, KC 85.5, Texas 79.5. So Texas is a good team to face round 1, KC would be best for round 2 as we hope Houston gets knocked out quick. Dodgers & Cubs have 590 3rd order winning percentages so they are the teams to watch for over in that other league.

FYI: take the SRS for all positive NL teams and you still are lower than the Jays - 1.6 for Jays, 1.2 for the positive NL. Houston, NYY, and KC are all between 0.7 and 0.9 for 2nd to 4th in the AL. Baltimore's 0.5 is as good as the best the NL has to offer (St. Louis).

1. Pitcher WAR is the average of ra9- and fip-WAR, both from fangraphs. (B/R doesn't give SP/RP war splits afaik).
2. ERA- and FIP- are similar to ERA+ but in reverse - 100 is league average and the lower the better.
3. Hitters war is the average of fWAR and bWAR.
4. WRC+ of course is similar to OPS+ but based mostly on wOBA instead of OPS - 100 is league average and the higher the better.
5. I was going to include defense but wanted both UZR and DRS - and DRS in a rate format - and it just became too much work, so you'll have to eyeball the defensive difference from the WAR number.



Rotation

LH D.Price (29): 32gs, 6.9ip/gs, 60era-, 68fip-, 6.8awar/32gs
LH C.Hamels (31): 32gs, 6.6ip/gs, 90era-, 86fip-, 4.2awar/32gs

RH M.Stroman (24): 4gs, 6.8ip/gs, 41era-, 86fip-, 7.6awar/32gs
RH Y.Gallardo (29): 33gs, 5.6ip/gs, 80era-, 96fip-, 3.3awar/32gs

RH R.Dickey (40): 33gs, 6.5ip/gs, 96era-, 109fip-, 2.8awar/32gs
LH C.Lewis (35): 33gs, 6.2ip/gs, 109era-, 100fip-, 2.1awar/32gs

RH M.Estrada (31): 28gs, 6.1ip/gs, 80era-, 108fip-, 2.8awar/32gs
LH M.Perez (24): 14gs, 5.6ip/gs, 105era-, 82fip-, 2.6awar/32gs

LH M.Buehrle (36): 32gs, 6.2ip/gs, 93era-, 104fip-, 2.2awar/32gs
LH D.Holland (28): 10gs, 5.8ip/gs, 115era-, 128fip-, 1.0awar/32gs


Bullpen

RH R.Osuna (20): 69.2ip, 63era, 73fip-, 1.6awar/65ip
RH S.Tolleson (27): 72.1ip, 70era-, 83fip-, 1.4awar/65ip

RH M.Lowe (32): 55.0ip, 49era-, 64fip-, 1.6awar/65ip
RH K.Kela (22): 60.1ip, 56era-, 63fip-, 1.8awar/65ip

LH B.Cecil (28): 54.1ip, 61era-, 57fip-, 1.6awar/65ip
LH J.Diekman (28): 58.1ip, 101era-, 90fip-, 0.4awar/65ip

RH L.Hendriks (26): 64.2ip, 72era-, 52fip-, 1.3awar/65ip
RH S.Dyson (27): 75.1ip, 66era-, 76fip-, 1.1awar/65ip

RH A.Sanchez (22): 26.1ip, 59era-, 75fip-, 1.2awar/65ip
RH A.Bass (27): 64.0ip, 106era-, 90fip-, 0.2awar/65ip

LH A.Loup (27): 42.1ip, 109era-, 91fip-, 0.1awar/65ip
LH S.Freeman (28): 38.1ip, 72era-, 111fip-, 0.6awar/65ip

RH L.Hawkins (42): 38.2ip, 74era-, 78fip-, 0.7awar/fip
RH R.Ohlendorff (33): 19.1ip, 87era-, 119fip-, 0.2awar/65ip





Starting Lineup

LF B.Revere (27): 634pa, 98wrc+, +2.3war/650pa
CF D.Deshields (22): 492pa, 94wrc+, +0.7war/650pa

3B J.Donaldson (29): 711pa, 154wrc+, +8.0war/650pa
RF S.Choo (32): 653pa, 127wrc+, +3.5war/650pa

RF J.Bautista (34): 666pa, 148wrc+, +4.7war/650pa
3B A.Beltre (36): 619pa, 108wrc+, +5.4war/650pa

DH E.En'cion (32): 624pa, 150wrc+, +4.8war/650pa
DH P.Fielder (31): 693pa, 124wrc+, +1.6war/650pa

SS T.Tulowitzki (30): 534pa, 100wrc+, +3.2war/650pa
1B M.Moreland (29): 515pa, 115wrc+, +2.7war/650pa

1B J.Smoak (28): 328pa, 108wrc+, +1.9war/650pa
LF J.Hamilton (34): 182pa, 92wrc+, +1.3war/650pa

C R.Martin (32): 507pa, 114wrc+, +4.4war/650pa
C R.Chirinos (31): 273pa, 104wrc+, +3.9war/650pa

CF K.Pillar (26): 628pa, 93wrc+, +4.9war/650pa
2B R.Odor (21): 470pa, 105wrc+, +3.0war/650pa

2B R.Goins (27):  428pa, 84wrc+, +3.2war/650pa
SS E.Andrus (26): 661pa, 77wrc+, +1.8war/650pa

.

UT C.Colabello (31): 360pa, 142wrc+, +1.4war/650pa
UT M.Napoli (33): 469pa, 98wrc+, +1.2war/650pa

OF E.Carrera (28): 192pa, 90wrc+, -1.4war/650pa
OF W.Venable (32): 390pa, 87wrc+, +1.3war/650pa

OF D.Pompey (22): 103pa, 81wrc+, +2.8war/650pa
OF J.Gallo (21): 123pa, 85wrc+, +2.6war/650pa

IF C.Pennington (31): 249pa, 57wrc+, -0.5war/650pa
IF H.Alberto (22): 104pa, 27wrc+, +2.8war/650pa

C D.Navarro (31): 192pa, 84wrc+, +2.0war/650pa
C C.Giminez (32): 113pa, 119wrc+, +4.3war/650pa

Not a small part of the reason for Texas 2nd half resurgence has been their 3 late inning relievers.

Closer Tolleson has been ridden hard though. Lost the game Friday and gave up HR's to both hitters he faced Saturday, the 5th day in a row he'd pitched.

Kela is battling elbow issues. Dyson (yeah, that Dyson) has been the rock - 17 appearances without an earned run; the last one gave up was against the Jays Aug 27.

How effective will they be?

NYY
Top-15 (0): ---
Top-30 (0): ---
Top-60 (0): ---
Top-90 (0): ---
Top-120 (4): 99.Gregorius 3.1, 104.Betances 3.0, 112.McCann 2.9, 116.Teixeira 2.9

Yankees, we've got some good news and some bad news. The good news is that your new shortstop will be your best player. The bad news is that your new shortstop will be your best player.

A little bit of insight into the Rangers starters via Morosi, they're thinking of going with 3 LH. Interesting, but I guess they don't like how Lewis has fared against the Blue Jays.

unsurprisingly, we officially get the early afternoon games no matter what happens in the wc.

The US TV networks are probably praying for a Yankee win in the WC. An American League post-season consisting of Toronto, Texas, Houston, and Kansas City wouldn't exactly be a huge ratings draw (in the US, that is).

It's probably worth mentioning at this point that the playoffs are a huge crapshoot. It's impossible to determine team quality over five games - it took over 150 to determine that the Jays were better than the Yankees.

The Jays' season should be considered a success regardless of what happens from here. Enjoy the trip (and the odd game times that Jays fans and players will have to endure). We haven't had a chance to do this for a while.

I really wish I could copy and paste send Dave Till's public service announcement to all of the Jays "fans" out there.

At least we get an 8pm game Sunday night. That means none of our families will disown us for ignoring them at thanksgiving dinner.

Is anyone concerned about Roberto Osuna?  As the closer, he's a crucial guy for the Jays. Games will depend on him.  But in his 12 innings since
the beginning of September, he has allowed 11 hits (including 4 home runs, 3 doubles and a triple) plus 4 walks.  When he is being hit, he is being hit hard.   Opposition hitters have an OPS of .890 against him. His overall season numbers are good, but I'm a little worried that the opposition has adjusted to him and figured out ways to hit him.  Am I worrying too much?

Yes, you're probably worrying too much, but it's natural for fans to recognize the weakest link and be worried about it. Right now that seems to be the bullpen's ability to hold a small lead late. I've heard from a lot of casual fans who think Cecil should be the closer right now, but for me having your best reliever to deploy at any time makes a lot more sense, especially in the playoffs where outs in the 6th and 7th can seem huge.

September's batter-faced OPS #s, TEX & TOR closers:

Roberto Osuna - .234/.294/.596
Shawn Tolleson - .294/.314/.500

Sam Dyson has been incredible since joining the Rangers, and somewhere John Farrell feels validated about his "best stuff in the organization" comment. His line reads - 31.1ip 24h 1hr 4bb 30k 1.15era 0.89whip.

Jake Diekman has been solid as well, but he's left-handed.

I read that those 3 all pitched something like 5 days in a row in the last week of the regular season. Pretty insane stuff.

Is anyone concerned about Roberto Osuna?

I was, but everyone told me not to worry.

Osuna had a bad september, no doubt.

Hard to tell exactly what to worry about though. His velo is all still there, so that's not an issue.

His fastball command does seem off, though, which may (or may not) show some fatigue.

Interesting though is that he's really upped his slider usage this past month all the way from about 14% to 24%, and has used his changeup less. which is weird since his change up still rates very well this month while his slider does not.

it's almost like he's been specifically working on his slider rather than just using his best pitches.

of course it's the meatballs he's left over the heart of the plate that concern me a bit. he was all corners most of the year.

I read that those 3 all pitched something like 5 days in a row in the last week of the regular season.

It was just Tolleson and Dyson, but... yeah. Haven't seen anyone do that since Shaun Camp was working for Joe Maddon. Dyson came through just fine, but Tolleson's last two outings were pretty shaky.

And yes, the Rangers are thinking hard about Gallardo for Game 1.

Why wouldn't they. He's faced the Jays three times in his career, and he's won all three (3-0, 1.33). This year, Gallardo started two games against the Jays and allowed just 6 H and 0 runs in 13.2 IP.

Schedule:

Thursday: 3:30 or 4:00 (based on NYY/HOU result)
Friday: 12:30
Sunday: 8:00
Monday: ?
Wednesday: ?

The thing about Gallardo… on June 27 he shut down the Jays for 8-1/3 innings, no runs on 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4. But after that… 17 starts in which he topped out at 6 IP (just 3 times) and got knocked around to the tune of .308 / .378 / .473.

I hadn't noticed how hard Gallardo got hit in the second half- .323/.382/.512 with secondary numbers that match that. 

Baseball players are a superstitious bunch.  It takes 11 wins to come home with a championship.  Eleven has been a lucky number for this club.  For the record, I anticipate that the club will lose 2 games this post-season.  That is also a lucky number...

Gallardo is officially starting game 1.

And obviously Hamels game 2.

538 has Jays' Elo chances of winning WS at 19%.