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Game Threads Blue Jays @ Orioles - September 28-October 1
The Blue Jays know they are going to the playoffs but are still leering at their first American League East title since 1993. They check into Baltimore for four of their final seven regular season games on the road.



Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 7:05 pm ET - Marco Estrada (12-8, 3.28) vs. Chris Tillman (10-11, 5.16)
Tuesday at 7:05 pm ET - Marcus Stroman (3-0, 1.89) vs. Miguel Gonzalez (9-11, 4.85)
Wednesday at 7:05 pm ET - R.A. Dickey (11-11, 4.00) vs. Kevin Gausman (3-7, 4.49)
Thursday at 12:05 pm ET (originally 7:05 pm ET) - David Price (18-5, 2.45) vs. TBA

The Orioles are trying to salvage their season and avoid the basement of the AL East. Their 76-79 record leaves them just one game ahead of Boston and Tampa Bay. They were swept at Fenway Park over the weekend to offset a three-game sweep of their Beltway Rivals, the Washington Nationals.

The Jays look to whittle down their magic number of four to clinch the East after winning 90 of their first 155 games. They hold a four-game lead over the New York Yankees and are still tied with Kansas City for the best record in the American League. Again, if the Jays and Royals finish the season with identical records, the Jays get the nod for the number one seed after winning four of seven against K.C. earlier this year.

Extra Innings
  • Mad props and big ups to Kevin Pillar for winning American League Player of the Week honours.
  • The Toronto Sun has a story on Jays manager John Gibbons admitting he screwed up in not giving a proper send-off to Mark Buehrle.
  • The National Post wonders if Buehrle will get a post-season start.
  • The Toronto Star has a story on a wonderful lady who is an institution at The Dome.
  • The Star also has a cool photo of Edwin Encarnacion dealing with traffic.
  • CBC gathers social media reaction across the country after the Jays clinched their first playoff berth in 22 years.
  • Sportsnet says Russell Martin was not around for the locker room celebration Saturday.
  • Also from Sportsnet, Alex Anthopoulos thinks Troy Tulowitzki could return to action before the end of the regular season.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Monday, September 28 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT.
Blue Jays @ Orioles - September 28-October 1 | 285 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
James W - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#312094) #
The Russell Martin link is actually to the Kevin Pillar story.
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#2JBrumfield - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#312096) #
The Russell Martin link is actually to the Kevin Pillar story.

Noted and corrected, thank you.

One story I forgot to include was Doc Halladay's reaction to the Jays reaching the post-season.
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China fan - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#312097) #
News from just a few minutes ago:  Tulo took about 40 swings in BP, says he feels really good, says he will "definitely" be back for the playoffs, and probably before.  He'll probably play against the Rays this week, maybe even the Orioles, to make sure he is ready for the playoffs.
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ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#312098) #
Wow, lots of empty seats in Baltimore making it look more like Tampa's home park. It must seem pretty quiet to the Jays after the spirited atmosphere at the Roger's Centre.
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Magpie - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#312099) #
Just hilarious how Wieters turned his head away after Encarnacion hit that pitch.
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Magpie - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#312100) #
Ah, the legendary 23-1 game. Carpenter started and allowed 6 runs in 3 innings, two unearned because of a Grebeck error. In the fourth, Roy Halladay took the mound, sporting a 10.75 ERA. In his two-thirds of an inning, he allowed 7 runs on 5 hits and a walk. And every one of those runs was unearned because of another Grebeck error. So he was actually able to lower his ERA to 10.64...
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uglyone - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#312101) #
nice call by gibby to go to the bullpen for the top of the order. nice outing by estrada again but man it's like he's playing a game of chicken with them all night long.
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uglyone - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#312102) #
man it would be weird if Pompey doesn't make the playoff roster.

p.s. man good thing Pompey grabbed that bat or pillar woulda hurt himself
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snider - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#312103) #
Pillar has turned into a less athletic version of Devon White. I'll take that.
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electric carrot - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#312104) #
I want to know who the Blue Jays sliding in to home plate coach is. Give that man a raise.
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hypobole - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#312105) #
Impressive comeback wins the past two days.

Magic number down to 2.
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uglyone - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#312106) #
Royals lose. 1 game clear in first.
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rtcaino - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#312107) #
I'm getting a magic number of five to clinch first in AL. Does that seem correct?

162 - 91 - 66 = 5

(Jays hold the tie break, so no need to add one.)
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uglyone - Monday, September 28 2015 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#312108) #
sounds like we had a trade in place for Papelbon but AA was warned off by none other than Roy Halladay.

So AA's first trade ends up paying off huge in the end. what a year.
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#312109) #
Gotta love it. Another reason to always be classy to ex-players. AA has done a lot of smart things that just seemed right at the time such as being classy to Halladay and making sure not to bad mouth him. Some GM's did stuff like that and that is not what we need here. By being good to Halladay and making him feel happy enough to come back for one day to retire (heck, I'd be tempted to ask if he wants a one day contract in September just so he qualifies to get a WS ring) might have helped lead AA to avoid Papelbon. I thought he'd have been a good one to get at the time but after the mess in Washington boy did the Jays do the smart thing instead.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#312110) #
Haven't checked the Fangraphs WAR leader board for some time, so I was more than a bit surprised to see Kevin Pillar with his modest 90 wRC+ at #22 among AL non-pitchers. He's ahead of everyone on the Yankees, Twins, White Sox and A's.
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scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:55 AM EDT (#312111) #
OBP is still low, but Pillar makes some ground with a decent mixture of power and speed. 12 HR, 30 doubles, 25 stolen bases.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#312112) #
The Jays now have more wins since the All Star Break (46-19) than they did at the All Star Break (45-46), in 26 fewer games. They are also 68-35 in their last 103 games. This run has been phenomenal. Hard to believe they might end up with the best record in the AL after starting the season so mediocre, run differential aside.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#312113) #
With Pillar, the extra base hits are already incorporated into his 90 wRC+.

There are 3 major factors for his high WAR total.

His stolen bases (4th in the AL) and especially his decisions on the basepaths have him # 1 in the AL in baserunning. Also helps that Gibbons rarely uses the hit-and-run, allowing Pillar to pick his spots.

His defence is #2 in the AL, behind only Kiermaier.

His durability allows him to max his talents, since WAR is a counting stat,
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Gerry - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#312114) #
The Jays are 5 games up with six games to play. If they win their next two games they will be at least 5 up with four to play. Hence the magic number is two.

rtcaino, I don't know what the 66 in your formula represents.
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Oceanbound - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#312115) #
Re: Halladay and Papelbon, that seems like complete speculation. There's no evidence of it at all.
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China fan - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#312116) #
Gerry, I think Rtcaino is referring to the magic number for the overall AL title (ahead of the Royals) rather than the division title (ahead of the Yankees).

Although the Jays are effectively 2 games ahead of the Royals (since the Jays would get the AL title if they are tied with the Royals due to their head-to-head record), it is still likely to take a few more games to settle the overall AL race.  Thus the question still arises:  at what point do the Jays begin to give their regulars a little bit of pre-playoff rest?   I sort of thought that Gibbons was beginning to do that last night, by using Navarro instead of Martin for a 2nd consecutive day and by using Colabello rather than Smoak.  But there were valid reasons for both of those decisions apart from resting the regulars, so I don't know. 

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John Northey - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#312117) #
I suspect at this point Gibbons will begin the resting of regulars...sort of a very late spring training type rule. Keep regulars sharp but mix in kids/bench as much as possible.
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Gerry - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#312118) #
The resting won't start until after the clinch. It's like Gibbons bullpen usage with a four run lead. Nothing is certain, until it is.
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ayjackson - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#312119) #
I can't fathom Gibby resting regulars before the Division is clinched.
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Jevant - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#312120) #
There's really no reason to rest regulars until the AL is clinched.  The team is (all but) guaranteed to have Monday through Wednesday off next week, before playing a Thursday game at home.  That's half a week off built in.  Then they'll play Thursday/Friday, off Saturday, play again Sunday/Monday.  No need to rest regulars this week if home field advantage through to the World Series is still an option.
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China fan - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#312121) #
"....I can't fathom Gibby resting regulars before the Division is clinched....."

Yes of course, but would he rest them before the overall AL title is clinched?  How important is it to have home advantage in all playoff series?  Is it important enough to keep all of the big guns in the lineup for every game?
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China fan - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#312122) #
"....The team is (all but) guaranteed to have Monday through Wednesday off next week, before playing a Thursday game at home.  That's half a week off built in....."

Thanks, that's a good point.   Also, for various reasons, most of the big guns have had some opportunities for rest already.  Martin has rested because Navarro is the appropriate catcher for Estrada and sometimes for Buehrle, while Thole has sometimes been the catcher for Dickey.  Bautista and Encarnacion have had lots of games at DH this year, which reduces the wear and tear.  There's a platoon at 1B, while Goins has spent a fair amount of time on the bench (before the Travis injury).  Tulo is coming off injury, but has at least had some time to rest during the injury rehab.  The only ones who might really need a break are Pillar and Donaldson (even though it really hasn't affected their performance very much so far, in my opinion anyway).  And perhaps Revere, and to some extent Bautista since he's been in the outfield for a couple of months now.  So those guys could get a day or two of additional rest when the overall AL title is reached.
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Jevant - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#312123) #
How important is it to have home advantage in all playoff series?  Is it important enough to keep all of the big guns in the lineup for every game?

Considering how well the Jays play at home, I'd say it's definitely important.  The Jays have been saying it's like a 10th man.  It's pretty freaking loud in there, and that can't hurt.  "Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuueeeeeeetooooooooooooooooo."

Another consideration: Rogers probably would like the extra playoff home dates.  Not sure if that ever trickles down, but it sure makes an impact in certain leagues (such as the NHL) where teams go "all in" to finish 8th for an extra couple of playoff game revenue.  Can't imagine Rogers isn't interested in the same thing.
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Jevant - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#312124) #
Yeah, for sure.  I'm still hoping we get to see Pompey for a game or 2, just to allow him to make a spectacular assist at the plate or something to remind Gibbons that he's a good defensive replacement for Revere's noodle arm...nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#312125) #
i still find the obsession with resting guys kinda funny. what difference do you really think one extra day off will make?

"Re: Halladay and Papelbon, that seems like complete speculation. There's no evidence of it at all."

it's being presented as a an actual story, not just speculation, so either it's true or somebody is lying.
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rtcaino - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#312126) #
Yes, CF, I was attempting to calculate the Magic Number to clinch 1st in the AL.

162 - 91 (Jays's Ws) - 66 (KC Ls) = 5

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Gerry - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#312127) #
In my opinion I believe Gibby will rest players for one day and maybe another half game, once the title is clinched. Ideally the Jays would clinch by tomorrow. Then give the regulars either Thursday or Friday off and then give them two or three at-bats in the Saturday and Sunday games.
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Lylemcr - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#312128) #
I think of KC and they have clinched their division for a long time now. They have lost an edge.

I hope they put the throttle down till Sunday. You have to keep that state of mind into the playoffs. It is baseball, not hockey. If someone has a nagging injury, sure (like Bautista or EE). Other than that, keep the edge.

The only people that should be resting is the starters so they can be lined up for the playoffs.

Also.... I can't believe that passed KC. Incredible second half...
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#312129) #
A day off can allow sore muscles to heal a bit, take some stress off knees, for high performance athletes it is amazing what a day or two can do for the healing process. Bill James did a study years ago and it showed missing a game a month is about what it took to keep guys at top performance year round (not a day, a game off).
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#312130) #
You don’t want to rest players too much, either. The starters will already have their timing messed up (for example, Price starts Thursday and doesn’t start again until the following Thursday for Game 1). You want to keep the hitters and pitchers on a fairly consistent routine. Too much rest isn’t necessarily a good thing.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#312131) #
I can't believe all this resting talk. Did no one bother to read Jevant's post? The Jays will have 3 days off next week once we clinch the AL East. And if we have trouble getting those 2 magic number games, then we sure as hell better put our best lineup on the field.

There are only 6 regular season games left. We're truly a bunch of over-thinking worry warts sometimes.
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SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#312132) #
I agree with the Spring Training type of lineup once things are set up (division and home field wrapped up). Maybe start the starters for a few innings and then remove them in the 5th or 6th. Let them play a bit to keep them fresh but don't go overboard. Give a guy a day off or a start at DH, if need be.

I think the 3 days off prior to the start of the ALDS should be enough for the hitters, especially the ones with nagging injuries. It will be the pitchers that will be interesting to see. If Stroman starts game 2 then he'll go on normal rest (projected to go Sunday and then Friday for Game 2). Everyone else will get more rest than normal.
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Jevant - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#312133) #
It's very rare as a Jays fan to be in the spot of "things are going so well, gotta find something to talk about"...and "8th man in BP or 5th man on bench on postseason roster" or "should we rest players" appears to be the topics.

It's kind of awesome to be able to talk about this like this.



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hypobole - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#312134) #
Here's a non-Jays quiz. I'm guessing it's far too easy for older Bauxite's, but here goes anyway.

Arrieta won his 21st game Sunday. The last Cubs pitcher to accomplish that feat was...?
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MatO - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#312135) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-gets-what-from-postseason-ticket-revenue/
On the question of how much the Jays will benefit financially from being in the playoffs, Fangraphs gives a nice breakdown of how post-season ticket revenue is split between MLB, players and teams. The greatest benefit to the teams and the least benefit to the players is to have all series go the max. Teams do get to keep all the concession etc. revenue to themselves.
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jjdynomite - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#312136) #
Without checking, I'm gonna assume it's MLB's original Captain Canada, hypobole, the honourable Ferguson Jenkins.

As per lining up the pitchers for post-season, obviously Price is #1, but I've been reading somewhere that Gibby might slot Dickey in #2 given we are now descending into colder October nights and Dickey's knuckler would play better in the climate-controlled 'Dome than, say, in Yankee Stadium. Thus, Stroman would go 3rd.


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James W - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#312137) #
"Cuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuueeeeeeetooooooooooooooooo."

Hey, remember when Pirates fans made Cueto have a meltdown in the 2013 Wild Card Game? I'm okay with a replay of that in the ALCS.

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Richard S.S. - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#312138) #
Several points to make.
1) As a nice person on this site has explained, use 163 and not 162 to calculate Magic Numbers.
2) Toronto dominates at Home, but is average Away. Gibbons is going for #1 Overall in the A.L. as a result.
3) There are three games off starting Monday, people can rest then.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#312139) #
One note on the Royals loss last night. Pinch hitter Chris Denorfia homered to break a 0-0 tie in the 11th.

Per ESPN, the last time a pinch hitter had a walkoff home run in a scoreless extra inning game was never in MLB.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#312140) #
Yeah, you got it jj, Fergie Jenkins in 1971 was the answer.

That was part of an amazing (to me at least) 7 year run where he averaged almost 40 starts and 307 IP per season.
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Jevant - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#312141) #
As a nice person on this site has explained, use 163 and not 162 to calculate Magic Numbers.

Generally true, but in this case I think 162 is fine, since Jays "win" on a tie.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#312142) #
Leaving aside the post-season, it now seems clear that the five best Blue Jays clubs ever are 2015, 1993, 1992, 1987 and 1985.  Putting them in order isn't obvious, but seems like a worthy task for the next while . I am going to put something together for the weekend.
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Nigel - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#312143) #
Mike, a very interesting topic - I look forward to what you put together. Just out of interest, are you thinking about the best Jays' team relative to context (i.e. against the league that year) or are you thinking about comparing the 5 Jays teams against each other? In other words, I have always felt that the Jays 1987 team was the best team in baseball that year but is probably not the best of the 5 Jays teams listed.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#312144) #
I'll focus on how they were relative to league, but I'll probably also do some inter-team comparisons.  It's a bit tricky comparing across decades- only the 2015 team has interleague play and the unbalanced schedule.  So, we know that the AL in 2015 is the stronger league and we can fairly easily satisfy ourselves that the AL East is the best of the AL divisions. 

On another note, Stacey Fowles in the Torontoist with an ode to Marcus Stroman.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#312145) #
So, we know that the AL in 2015 is the stronger league and we can fairly easily satisfy ourselves that the AL East is the best of the AL divisions.

Ack.  Edit: So, we know that the AL in 2015 is the stronger league and we can fairly easily satisfy ourselves that the AL East is the best of the AL divisions, but we don't really have a good sense of how the AL stacked up against the NL in 1985 or 1987 (say).  
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NYJaysFan36 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#312146) #
In a prior post at the beginning of the month, I created a Blue Jays batting register for every season in their history using the metric weighted Runs Above Average to take the offensive environment into account. I updated it Sunday with statistics through 9/26.

jays hitting

As expected, this year's offensive has become #1 all-time as Martin, Goins, Revere, and Pillar have really made some gains and the others continue being their amazing selves. Unfortunately the Tulo injury is going to keep him from being considered the regular shortstop this year.

I also spent some time working on the pitching. Certain things don't transcend eras (there was never a real 'closer' strategically before Tom Henke), and I took some liberties in ordering the starting pitchers. I don't think this group would question Steib, Clemens, and Halladay in the left column even when they didn't lead the club in starts (and Jimmy Key was WAY better for a couple years).

jays pitching

I made up my own metric to try to approximate wRAA on the pitching side. It is the number of runs allowed better than AL average for a given number of innings pitched (durability adds here). It also rolls the defense into it for better or worse.

Some interesting things:

  • Roger Clemens was impossibly good in 1997, the height of offense.
  • The worst pitching season mercifully doesn't show up here because Harry Leroy didn't start enough games in 2000. He did single handedly make the 2000 starting staff below average though.
  • The 2008 bullpen was the best in team history, coinciding with Scott Downs' best season. If the 2008 team could only hit!
  • Speaking of wasted pitching on teams that REALLY couldn't hit, the 1997 pitching staff was way above average.
  • Mark Eichhorn's 1986 was just silly, skews the reliever seasons, and we'll never see that kind of usage again.
  • The 1985 pitching staff was incredibly balanced and consistently good. Leal was the only pitcher with significant innings who was below average.
On the topic of best teams ever, the 1985 and 1987 clubs were very similar, with 85 edging in both categories. The championship teams didn't pitch particularly well and were certainly powered by offense (15-14 in Philadelphia, anyone?), though the '93 bullpen was superlative. This team has had a better regular season on the mound than 92 and 93, though not hugely, and mostly in the last two months.

Given the sum of what I've researched, if we are talking about the regular season and balance, I have to say the 1985 team was the best. Playoffs are a crapshoot.

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NYJaysFan36 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#312147) #
I'd like to tack on that I am extremely glad that the Jays have only been around for 39 seasons. Can't imagine doing something like this for the Phillies.
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#312148) #
No question 1985 was the best team. Massive balance there, with only SS/2B being sub 100 for OPS+, 6 of 7 starters with 5+ starts having ERA+ over 100, the 5 most used relievers also were 100+ for ERA+. Amazing how Jimy Williams blew it the following 3+ years with that club.

92/93 are amazing to have won it all in retrospect as they were not the strongest Jay teams if one digs into them. Lots of talent but not putting it together during the regular season. Gaston did a great job in the playoffs with them though as there is a different strategy in the playoffs vs regular season (relievers can be rode a lot harder, role players can be very useful if used correctly are 2 examples).

2015 is more like 1985. Few holes, lots of strengths.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#312149) #
I find these historical comparisons fascinating - thanks for your analysis NYJaysFan and I look forward to yours Mike.

I've gotten my head around the fact that 18 year-old, counting stat-obsessed Jer couldn't accurately evaluate Joe Carter (most overrated Jay ever?) but I still find myself surprised that looking back at defensive data, Alomar was as overrated, relative to the stats, as he was.  My teen mind had him ahead of Devo as a defender. 

Can anyone explain why Alomar's D - still good for sure - was so overrated in the early 90s? 

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vw_fan17 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#312150) #
Joe West needs to retire, willingly or not. Sadly, he'll probably get every playoff series we're in or something.

Aside: go Angels - hoping for a 1st round series with LA.

Anyone who asks if the Jays should push for home series advantage: just go to mlb.com and click on "Standings". Then look at the relevant teams we might play and their home/road records.

We are +25 games at home, +1 on the road. A HUGE advantage at home, while barely treading water on the road. That alone should settle it.
NYY: about even +10 home, +8 road), so they don't care (but we do)
KC: +18 at home, +3 on the road
Min: +14 at home, -8 on the road
Tex: +3 at home, +9 on the road (DO NOT WANT!)
Hou: +25 at home (same as the Jays!), -16 on the road (WANT?)
LAA: +17 at home, -9 on the road

EVERY team that we could possibly play has a winning record at home. And we're barely at .500 on the road. If we have to go to KC for the ALDS, they'd be favoured.
OTOH, only 3/6 teams have a winning road record. And that +3 for the KC is basically the same as our +1. But you can't discount their +18 at home. Or, even worse, Hou's +25 at home.

If we're "just happy to make the playoffs", start resting regulars now.
If we want to go far in the playoffs, it's worth pushing every player to their limits to clinch home field. Period.


Looking at the NL (we'd have home field in the WS too):
NYM: +18/+4
StL: +29!/+8
Pit: +24/+9
ChC: +17/+9
LAD: +26/-8

Again, extremely good home teams, ok to good road teams.

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jerjapan - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#312151) #
Looking back on baseball reference, that 93 team was super lucky the guys that started with the team - Borders, Olerud, Alomar, Sprague, Carter, Devo and Molitor - were healthy enough to play every day.  Borders had the low in games played at 138, followed by Devo at 146.  The trades for Henderson and Fernandez were essential as well, given that they replaced Darrin Jackson and Dick Schofield - who at least was a decent defensive backup. 

The bench players on that team - as well as the back-end rotation starters and low leverage relievers - were terrible.  Darnell Coles, Turner Ward, Alfredo Griffin combined for over 500 awful ABs with only Ward being an average defensive player. 
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#312152) #
Roberto Alomar made many spectacular plays, particularly towards the line.  His arm was OK, but nothing special, and certainly a long way from Goins'.  The key thing was that he tried to avoid contact at any cost at the bag, and did not have a fast turn (or tag for that matter). In the end, given his offensive prowess, this might have been a good thing as it kept him healthy.  On the other hand, it did mean that the team turned fewer double plays than they might have. 
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NYJaysFan36 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#312153) #
Anyone else going tonight? I just bought my ticket, but am sitting here in my office in DC (I guess I stopped being NYJaysFan36 in March), looking outside, and hoping Josh can just as easily decide to not bring rain.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#312154) #
One thing I noticed about the 1985 club was how good the defence was.  I knew it at the time (Bill James said that all three outfielders had the range to play centerfield and the arm to play right- and Jesse Barfield was something well beyond that).  The upshot is that none of the pitchers had seasons as good as they looked.  When every starter has a much better FIP than ERA, that tells you that it's the defence that is doing the job and that the FIP is a better reflection of the team's pitching quality.  It's funny how it works.  The defence was so good that the pitchers gave up fewer hits and therefore were able to pitch more innings. 

If you roll in offence and defence into the position player evaluation, it looks like the 1985 team comes out ahead of the 2015 team, at first blush without adjusting for league quality and so on.  I rush to add that this reflects the team over the season as a whole.  The 2015 team is much stronger as of September 29 than it was, on average, over the year (courtesy of Tulowitzki and Revere). 

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jerjapan - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#312155) #
2015 is more like 1985. Few holes, lots of strengths.

My guess would certainly be that those are the top 2 Jays teams in history.  mid-80s Dave Stieb is likely my favourite Jay of all time. 

Thanks for the thoughts on Alomar Mike - i think the operating assumption for the radio or TV guys at the time was that middle IF were inherently superior defenders to OFs - hence my undervaluing of Devo re: Alomar and Barfield re: Fernandez.  Even as a kid I knew that Barfields arm was special, but its incredible to look back on his defensive numbers. 
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jjdynomite - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#312156) #
vw_fan17, I don't think it does the Jays enough credit to posit the trade deadline-reconstituted team as +25 at home, +1 on the road and say with any confidence that this means they are a lackluster road team.

Since Tulo, Price, Revere and Lowe joined the team, the Jays have played 22 away games (as of last night).

The Jays are 16-6. Needless to stay, that's +10. And there are 6 more games to go to (hopefully) skew the away numbers even more in the Jays' favour.

And now, with Tulo back this week, this is the team that is heading to the playoffs -- THIS team, not a +1 road team -- along with Price slated to start 2+ games per series.
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Nigel - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#312157) #
Very interesting discussion. Of the 5 Jays teams mentioned, the only thing that I can say with some confidence is that the 92 and 93 teams would rank (in some order) 4th and 5th best of the bunch. Ranking this year's team is challenging as Mike has noted because the post-ASB team is so much improved relative to the full year's squad. On the whole I think the 85, 87 and 15 squads are very very close in quality. The current team post ASB might be the best Jays team of all-time though.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#312158) #
"Can anyone explain why Alomar's D - still good for sure - was so overrated in the early 90s? "

I don't think it was overrated at all. the man was amazing.

1. IMO the defensive stats used pre-drs/uzr really suck.
2. they interestingly indicate that while he was good to very good defensively everywhere else he played (before falling apart in his mid 30s), for some reason the numbers said he was an awful defender in his prime defensive young to mid 20s seasons. Those years also happen to be the ones be played on a brand spanking new slab of concrete called the Skydome, which i'm guessing really messed up the range stats.

His career average Total Zone per team:

SDP (20-22): +4.35/150gms
TOR (23-27): -5.55/150gms
BAL (28-30): +1.09/150gms
CLE (31-33): +3.19/150gms

(the numbers fell apart in his last couple seasons after that...though interestingly those last 3yrs coincided withe start of UZR which while still ranking him poorly those final years did like him much more than TZ did.)

Looks to me like his peak defensive years were sabotaged by numbers which couldn't account for turf effects.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#312159) #
And i think this is the best team we've had but i want to check the numbers i like on that.

One thing is i sure wish we had something as catchy as The Drive of '85 this year.

The Careen of '15?
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#312160) #
In my memory Barfield was like watching a guy pitch from the outfield. No arc on his throws at all. Just lasers.
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vw_fan17 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#312161) #
Loved seeing a sign on Sunday at the 'Dome (via mlb.tv) "Winfield wants Noise".
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BlueMonday - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#312162) #
Game just postponed. I'm crying, sitting at camden yards, and my plane ticket is tomorrow Am.
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Magpie - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#312163) #
Alomar was over rated as a defensive player because he looked absolutely spectacular out there. The reason he wasn't as effective as he looked - and this applies only to his Toronto years - was entirely because of his positioning. He played too shallow for a turf infielder.
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sam - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#312164) #
Kevin Pillar had some interesting comments today re: the tag play yesterday. He strongly implied that given it was Joe West making the call someone in New York would have a hard time over-turning the call.

I wonder if the next iteration of the review system would allow for teams to listen in on the conversation between New York and the umpires?
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obo - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#312165) #
In my memory Barfield was like watching a guy pitch from the outfield. No arc on his throws at all. Just lasers.

Jesse Barfield's throws are probably my all-time favorite baseball-related thing.
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scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#312166) #
The 85 team had better pitching: Stieb, Key, Alexander, Clancy. (Who gave up 22, 22, 28, 15 HR. Estrada is at 22.)
Was that team too vulnerable to the long ball?

If Price and Stroman are here all year, 2015 is a better team.

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James W - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#312167) #
So, are the Yankees playing? Is it 6-0 yet?
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#312168) #
1985 v 2015

(i'm bumping mulliniorg down the order and flipping the killer Bs for better matchups)

1. CF L.Moseby: 670pa, 109wrc+, 3.3war/650
1. SS T.Tulowitzki: 526pa, 98wrc+, 2.6war/650

2. RF J.Barfield: 612pa, 142wrc+, 7.4war/650
2. 3B J.Donaldson: 692pa, 157wrc+, 8.0war/650

3. LF G.Bell: 667pa, 114wrc+, 3.3war/650
3. RF J.Bautista: 648pa, 148wrc+, 4.2war/650

4. 1B W.Upshaw: 557pa, 111wrc+, 2.8war/650
4. DH E.En'cion: 606pa, 146wrc+, 4.4war/650

5. 3B R.Mulliniks: 427pa, 128wrc+, 5.0war/650
5. 2B D.Travis: 238pa, 135wrc+, 6.3war/650

6. DH C.Johnson: 417pa, 104wrc+, 0.5war/650
6. 1B J.Smoak: 316pa, 109wrc+, 1.0war/650

7. C E.Whitt: 465pa, 103wrc+, 3.8war/650
7. C R.Martin: 493pa, 112wrc+, 4.2war/650

8. SS T.Fernandez: 618pa, 99wrc+, 4.3war/650
8. LF B.Revere: 614pa, 97wrc+, 2.1war/650

9. 2B D.Garcia: 627pa, 82wrc+, 1.5war/650
9. CF K.Pillar: 610pa, 90wrc+, 4.1war/650


B. UT A.Oliver: 280pa, 74wrc+, -2.3war/650
B. UT C.Colabello: 342pa, 141wrc+, 1.3war/650

B. OF J.Burroughs: 227pa, 117wrc+, 1.2war/650
B. OF E.Carrera: 182pa, 89wrc+, 0.7war/650

B. IF G.Iorg: 312pa, 122wrc+, 4.0war/650
B. IF R.Goins: 409pa, 81wrc+, 1.8war/650

B. C B.Martinez: 113pa, 48wrc+, -0.6war/650
B. C D.Navarro: 188pa, 83wrc+, 1.7war/650

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rtcaino - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#312169) #
What happens if they clinch after the first game? Jump around on the field, take a Victory Nap, play the second game, and then pop champagne?
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#312170) #
SP D.Stieb: 36gs, 5.7awar/32gs
SP D.Price: 32gs, 6.8awar/32gs

SP D.Alexander: 36gs, 4.5awar/32gs
SP M.Stroman: 3gs, 6.4awar/32gs

SP J.Key: 32gs, 4.2awar/32gs
SP M.Estrada: 27gs, 3.3awar/32gs

SP J.Clancy: 23gs, 3.1awar/32gs
SP M.Buehrle: 30gs, 2.8awar/32gs

SP T.Filer: 9gs, 2.5awar/32gs
SP R.Dickey: 32gs, 2.6awar/32gs

SP R.Musselman: 4gs, 2.8awar/32gs
SP A.Sanchez: 11gs, 1.9awar/32gs

SP L.Leal: 14gs, -0.3awar/32gs
SP D.Hutchison: 27gs, 0.7awar/32gs



RP T.Henke: 40.0ip, 2.0awar/65ip
RP R.Osuna: 68.2ip, 1.7awar/65ip

RP D.Lamp: 100.2ip, 1.1awar/65ip
RP M.Lowe: 54.3ip, 1.6awar/65ip

RP G.Lavelle: 72.2ip, 1.0awar/65ip
RP B.Cecil: 53.0ip, 1.5awar/65ip

RP J.Acker: 86.1ip, 0.6awar/65ip
RP L.Hendriks: 64.0ip, 1.4awar/65ip

RP B.Caudill: 69.1ip, 0.5awar/65ip
RP A.Sanchez: 23.2ip, 1.1awar/65ip

RP T.Musselman: 36.2ip, 0.1awar/65ip
RP L.Hawkins: 37.1ip, 0.8awar/65ip

RP S.Davis: 9.0ip, 1.8awar/65ip
RP A.Loup: 40.0ip, -0.2awar/65ip

RP T.Filer: 4.0ip, -0.8awar/65ip
RP R.Tepera: 30.1ip, 0.3awar/65ip

RP L.Leal: 1.0ip, -6.5awar/65ip
RP B.Schultz: 41.2ip, 0.1awar/65ip




yeah, I think this team is better.
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smcs - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#312171) #
What happens if they clinch after the first game? Jump around on the field, take a Victory Nap, play the second game, and then pop champagne?

Gibby said that he would put out the skeleton roster for game 2, and I can very much imagine the regulars getting kicked out of the 2nd game for smoking cigars on the bench, while sipping from champagne bottles.
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scottt - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#312172) #
Who's starting game 2? Dickey? I suppose Thole can catch him.
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electric carrot - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#312173) #
yeah, I think this team is better.

Agreed.  I loved that '85 team but 2015 I think is better and I don't think it's all that close -- especially if Stroman proves to be who we think he is in the playoffs.
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#312174) #
Yeah, game #2 tomorrow could be a total joke. But of course, so was the final game of 1998 when Roy Halladay was one out from a no-hitter. So game #2 could be a ton of fun. I'm sure if the Jays win game #1 it will be for guys like Kawasaki, Hague, Carrera and Pompey who have splinters in their behinds for the first few innings of nearly every game.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#312175) #
Every game is still a must win. The Jays need to clinch top spot in the AL for home field and an easier 1st round matchup.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#312176) #
who is still with the team?

i guess we could see:

1. CF Pompey
2. RF Carrera
3. 1B Colabello
4. DH Smoak
5. 3B Hague
6. SS Pennington
7. LF Barney
8. C Thole
9. 2B Kawasaki

I think that's as second string as we could field.
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92-93 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:46 PM EDT (#312177) #
"Re: Halladay and Papelbon, that seems like complete speculation. There's no evidence of it at all."

"it's being presented as a an actual story, not just speculation, so either it's true or somebody is lying."

Can you source this, uglyone? All I'm seeing is one fan's blog post that seems to take a tweet out of context and extrapolate. If there's an actual story here, I'd like to read it.
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electric carrot - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#312178) #

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92-93 - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#312179) #
The bad thing about the rain out today is that I think it would have been beneficial for Stroman to make 2 more starts on 4 days rest before the postseason began. Will tomorrow really be his last appearance, or will he get an inning or two in on Sunday, which is now looking more and more like Johnny Wholestaff's day to pitch?
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electric carrot - Tuesday, September 29 2015 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#312180) #

If I could mix and match 1985/2015 teams, going into the playoffs I’d probably take

Barfield over Bautista for the defense.

Bell over Revere for the offense

And I really can’t decide between Moseby and Pillar.

So maybe the whole outfield or just two of them but aside from that I’d leave the rest of the 2015 team alone.

(Tulo over Fernandez because Tulo’s been to the Series and I think that does matter.)

For Starting Pitchers:

Price over Stieb

Stroman over Alexander

Key over Estrada

Clancy over Buehrle

Dickey over Filer

So replace 2 starters and leave 3. And frankly beyond Henke, I'd keep all of the 2015 bullpen.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#312181) #
"Can you source this, uglyone? All I'm seeing is one fan's blog post that seems to take a tweet out of context and extrapolate. If there's an actual story here, I'd like to read it."

both Fairservice and Stoeten are referring to it as "the story they've heard", not just idle speculation.
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rtcaino - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#312182) #
"Ian notes this over at the Blue Jay Hunter, while elsewhere he wonders, based on a GROF tweet, if Roy Halladay had something to do with the Jays electing not to trade for Don Cherry’s favourite closer, Jonathan Papelbon. That is indeed something I’ve heard from a source, and have mentioned it a couple times on here."
(http://andrewstoeten.com/)

I heard this Papelbon/Halladay item for the first time from the Blue Jay Hunter article. When I read the article, I concluded that the author misunderstood the tweet and there was no story. Apparently, it is an actual thing.
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Super Bluto - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#312183) #
"the story they've heard"

Sorry, ugly. That doesn't cut it. The Blue Jay Hunter cites "rumblings".

I don't expect any source would ever come forward if it were true, but that doesn't make it a solid story.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#312184) #
never said it was solid, just that the claim is that there is a story there, not speculation.

could be total BS.

but it's not a "hmm do you think maybe Roy warned them off?" kinda thing.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#312185) #
Besides the Red Sox pounding on Pineda to get the division magic number down to 1, the Royals fell to the White Sox which means the Jays magic number for home field advantage in the ALCS is now 4. If the Jays go 3-3 over their remaining 6 games, the Royals need to go 5-0 to take first overall.

Meanwhile the Astros lost and LAofA won (their 7th straight), so the Angels now hold a half game lead for the second wild card. This is good for the Yankees, as the Angels don't have anyone like Keuchel to punch them out in the wild card game.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 04:44 AM EDT (#312186) #
Hoping to see lineups along these lines today:

Game 1: Stroman vs Gonzalez

1 . LF Revere
2 . 3B Donaldson
3 . RF Bautista
4 . DH Encarnacion
5 . SS Tulowitzki
6 . 1B Colabello
7 . C Martin
8 . 2B Goins
9 . CF Pillar

I wouldn't be surprised if Gibbons chooses Smoak over Colabello. But I like Colabello better, and I want Smoak playing 1B in game 2.

Game 2: Dickey vs Gausman

1 . CF Pompey
2 . RF Carrera
3 . 3B Hague
4 . DH Colabello
5 . 1B Smoak
6 . LF Pennington
7 . SS Kawasaki
8 . 2B Barney
9 . C Thole

The top 5 is respectable, the bottom 4... wow.

Maybe it'd be better to run Revere out there in both games and let Pompey take his place tomorrow.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 04:47 AM EDT (#312187) #
Just had another thought... for giggles Gibbons could send Colabello out to left field in game 2, opening up DH for Navarro.
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Super Bluto - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#312188) #
I don't get having Kawasaki bat above Barney, given the year's both of those guys have been having. If Gibbons sends out a line-up like this in Game 2, AA should seriously think about replacing him before the playoffs
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Vulg - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#312189) #
I don't get having Kawasaki bat above Barney, given the year's both of those guys have been having. If Gibbons sends out a line-up like this in Game 2, AA should seriously think about replacing him before the playoffs

Barney isn't eligible for the playoffs. I'm assuming Gibbons is taking another look at Kawasaki to help decide if he's worth having on the playoff roster as an emergency IF behind Pennington. Tulo appears to be healed, but what if the cracked shoulder doesn't respond well during an AB or in the field?
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#312190) #
Barney and Kawasaki are both sufficiently terrible hitters that it really doesn't matter what order you bat them in.

I'm probably being overly optimistic in hoping to see Tulo in the first game.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#312191) #
Maybe it'd be better to run Revere out there in both games and let Pompey take his place tomorrow.

It's all in fun, but yeah, I'd run Revere out there, and have Pennington at shortstop instead of Kawasaki.  That way, Dickey gets a pretty good defence behind him
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Jevant - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#312192) #
I really hope Gibbons doesn't completely "punt" a game simply because the team clinched the division.  Win both, celebrate afterwards.  Home field advantage throughout the playoffs is RIGHT there to be taken.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#312193) #
It would be normal to rest a regular or two in the second game of a doubleheader, and Gibbons has expressly not rested a couple of players in the drive to win the division.  You wouldn't play Tulo or Martin in both halves of the doubleheader regardless.  Personally, I think it is better to not have Donaldson, Pillar and Bautista play both halves of a DP at this stage in the season, given their workload to date.  It's more a matter of taste in the case of Goins and Revere.
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bpoz - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#312194) #
The comparisons of the various strong Blue Jay teams is great to read. Thanks to all.

However the rules changed, we have inter league games and 2 WC teams. Probably other things changed too. Definitely other things changed... 4 man rotation, Bullpen specialists and we went with a 5 man pen. We may never see a 5 man pen again.

The Jay's greatest strength IMO is that we had 1 or 2 Aces in the rotation very often. Steib & Key. Guzman & Hentgen. Halliday by himself. Clemons. D Wells.

Who else had 2 Aces? Some teams did.

Look what Madbum and Orel H of LAD and that ground ball pitcher Brown did by themselves to carry their teams to victory. And Guzman for us.

I am excited about our future because AA traded for an Ace in Price and he may have drafted an Ace or 2. We will see.

88 games gets you in and your Ace or Aces wins you the WS over much better 95+ wins teams.



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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#312195) #
for giggles Gibbons could send Colabello out to left field in game 2

Yeah, Dickey would be thrilled. And Colabello too. Not sure who would be giggling in this scenario. Maybe the 12 fans still at the park.

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rpriske - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#312196) #
"I really hope Gibbons doesn't completely "punt" a game simply because the team clinched the division.  Win both, celebrate afterwards.  Home field advantage throughout the playoffs is RIGHT there to be taken."


100x THIS. Don't ease up. The season is not over.
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92-93 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#312197) #
RA Dickey is 11-11 with a 4.00era. I'm sure both numbers are important to him, and that he wouldn't appreciate all this potential lineup tomfoolery.

5th in innings pitched in the American League is nothing to scoff at. Toast he is not, and his 32 starts/200 innings for 12 million is a really good place to start building a rotation.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#312198) #
on the flipside, there's a good chance the Os will also be fielding a skeleton crew in the 2nd game.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#312199) #
on the flipside, there's a good chance the Os will also be fielding a skeleton crew in the 2nd game.

And the probability that the Jays win game 1 is not 100%. Game 2 might demand that the regulars take the field a second time.

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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#312200) #
and remember, if we do win game 1, we'll be 2gms up on KC with 5gms left.
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Gerry - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#312201) #
Jays have called up Jon Diaz for today's games. It seems odd to call up Diaz when Tulo is about to return. Perhaps there is an injury that we don't know.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#312202) #
Perhaps Tulowitzki/Goins get the start in Game 1, and Diaz/Barney in Game 2 (if the club clinches).  That way you put a first class defence behind Dickey, while giving both Tulo and Goins the benefit of not playing both ends of a DH.  I guess we'll find out. 
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#312203) #
did i miss something? why do we think tulo is in today?
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jjdynomite - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#312204) #
No you didn't miss anything, uglyone. It's only speculation when Tulo will return, and it probably won't be today.

Unless things change the next 3 hours, the front office is saying Thursday/tomorrow at the earliest:

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/152284424/tulowitzki-most-likely-to-return-vs-tampa-bay


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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#312205) #
As far as I can tell, the only thing left to decide in the NL is where some of the games will be played (barring a total collapse by the Cardinals - their magic # is 2, so I guess it could happen). Otherwise, AFAICT, we'll see:
ChC play Pit, probably in Pit for the wildcard, winner plays StL.
Dodgers vs. Mets, probably in NY.

In the AL, the only thing we know for sure is that Tor and KC are in the playoffs. There's a miniscule chance the Jays can still fall to the wildcard, but they will probably win the division.
Outside of that, NYY is most likely WC1 winner, wildcard game to be in NY.
AL West/WC2, nothing settled.

FanGraphs gives the Rangers an 83% chance of winning the division, 12% of grabbing a wildcard, 4.3% chance of missing the playoffs. Not sure I want them in the mix - they're a good road team!
Angels have 14.7% chance of AL West, 35.6% chance of WC2, 49.6% chance of missing the playoffs.
Astros are 2% / 39.4%, 58.5% chance of missing.
Twins are 12.6% chance for WC2, Indians at 0.1% for WC2.

Assuming the current standings hold, we play the winner of the wildcard game, yes? So, which team of NYY / LAA / Hou do we want to face? Someone said Keuchel might help Hou get past NYY. I'm hoping for the unlikely "LAA gets in, beats NYY" scenario, so I can go see the Jays win in game 3 or 4 of the 1st round in Anaheim :-)

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SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#312206) #
What's wrong with "punting" a game? If they can avoid Bautista, Donaldson, Edwin, and Martin playing 18 innings, then they should do it. The double header against the Yankees required the top guys to play both games. This one is different. The Jays have a 2.5 game lead on the Royals (1.5 + the tie breaker). It's not do or die.

Martin is catching Stroman in the first game, so looks like Thole will catch Dickey. A lineup in game 2 including Pompey, Carrera, Colabello, and Hague/Pennington/Kawasaki in place of Bautista, Pillar, Edwin, and Donaldson is fine with me. They'll have four more games after the 2nd game to play their best players.
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#312207) #
Pretty great stuff here re: the road support that the Jays (and Raptors) have gotten over the last couple years.
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Super Bluto - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#312208) #
"Barney and Kawasaki are both sufficiently terrible hitters that it really doesn't matter what order you bat them in."

Doesn't matter? Doesn't matter??

Sorry Johnny, I don't see that as First-Place Thinking.

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Gerry - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#312209) #
I just listened to an excellent podcast. It's the latest "at the letters" from sportsnet. This episode featured Stephen Brunt giving his perspective on many things. He discusses in detail the backgrounds and personalities of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. He also suggests who is more likely to re-sign with the Jays. He and Arden Zwelling discuss Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, John Gibbons and some old time Jays who were not easy to cheer for.

It is worth a listen.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#312210) #
EE as DH for both games might make sense. especially if he's still gunning for 40hr.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#312211) #
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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#312212) #
For those who didn't know where to find it, like me who had to google several times, search the sportsnet site, etc (it's NOT easy to find if you're not a regular!), here's a link:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/author/at-the-letters/

Unfortunately, no transcript or summary - I don't have 70+ minutes to listen (at work) to info that would take me 5 minutes to read/skim.

Gerry, willing to summarize/post spoilers? Who do they think will/won't re-sign?

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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#312213) #
The asterisk next to uglyone's chart would note that the Rogers Centre has played as a pitcher's park this year, presumably because of the new slower turf.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#312214) #
Next step is to make a GapMinder version of the graph, where the size of each icon represents winning percentage and it is animated showing movement over time.

Uglyone, the gauntlet has been thrown down. We'll all be here waiting when you are done.

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Jevant - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#312215) #
That entire article is fantastic.
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#2JBrumfield - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#312216) #
Thursday's series finale has been moved up to 12:05 pm.
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#312217) #
Ugly, I like your chart just the way it is.
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ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#312218) #
It's going to be a lot of baseball in 24 hours, good job we have the September callups.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#312219) #
".....i still find the obsession with resting guys kinda funny. what difference do you really think one extra day off will make?...."

This is not just an "obsession" of a few Bauxites.  It's a legitimate issue for us to debate, because it's a factor that the Jays are seriously considering, which is why I raised it.  In fact, Gibbons today made it very clear that he will rest some of his regular guys today and tomorrow if the Jays clinch the division title.  So, whether you personally agree with the decision or not, it's definitely a thing.  Gibbons actually says that his desire to rest guys is more important than his desire to go all-out for the league title.  (Personally I have a lot of sympathy for the argument that the league title, and home advantage through the whole playoffs, is more important than resting the regulars.  But Gibbons knows his players better than I do, and if he decides to rest some of them, it's probably for a good reason.)

Some tweets today by Gregor Chisholm, summarizing what Gibby said:

Gibbons said if #BlueJays clinch his regulars will get tomorrow off. Playing for top record, but this takes priority.
If the #BlueJays clinch this afternoon expect a Spring Training lineup for Game 2 and then again tomorrow.
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Gerry - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#312220) #
Brunt thinks EE will re-sign, Bautista will not. EE is emotional and comes from the poor part of town, Jose is a city hid from a middle class background. Reyes was from the end of a dirt road.

Tulo is like a robot, Donaldson was hated by his team mates when he first arrived in the big leagues. Among others Doyle Alexander and Jim Acker were not nice. Gibby couldn't figure out Adam Lind. There are lots of nuggets like this in the podcast.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#312221) #
"....He also suggests who is more likely to re-sign with the Jays...."

Would love to know what he said about this.  Gerry, or anyone else who heard it?
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#312222) #
"....Brunt thinks EE will re-sign, Bautista will not....."

Whoops, you had already answered our question!   Sorry, and thanks.

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JB21 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#312223) #
Brunt thinks EE will re-sign, Bautista will not. EE is emotional and comes from the poor part of town, Jose is a city kid from a middle class background. Reyes was from the end of a dirt road.

Are these thoughts supposed to be intertwined? Was the reasoning for EE re-signing because he comes from a poor family vs. José who comes from a middle class family?
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Gerry - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#312224) #
It's not a 100% relationship but it not zero either. The discussion is quite detailed and it is hard to summarize in a couple of sentences.
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Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#312225) #
A Little League homer!
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#312226) #
Well, cheers to all the members of Da Box.

22 years.
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ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#312227) #
Heh,heh,nice to see Buck Showalter standing in the dugout looking like he just sucked a lemon. How sweet it is !
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jjdynomite - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#312228) #
I just finished listening to all 71 minutes of the excellent "At The Letters" podcast (since I obviously cannot stream the division-clinching game at work nor have a functioning AM radio nearby). I heartily agree with Gerry that it's well worth a listen for all Bauxites.

To respond to what JB21 asked more thoroughly, EE has really grown to love Toronto, as was witnessed in the "hat trick" homer game with his wide smile and curtain call. It was not that he was poor per se -- and thus would take any extension thrown at him -- but he is more cast in opposition to Joey, who sees Toronto in terms of real estate investments (seriously), and has a very Americanized brusque approach to life: his parents were upper-middle class professionals in the capital city of Santo Domingo, he played in Florida's Chipola JuCo (with Martin), he lives off-season in Tampa -- and not La Romana which is EE's off-season home. So given Joey's Type A personality (both nature and nurture) he may likely feel more slighted that he has been putting up MVP numbers yet has been playing on below market contracts his entire career. Whereas EE -- even though also quite underpaid vis-a-vis his production -- has made a boatload of money enough for a permanent resident of the D.R., and so would not be as aggressive seeking out full market value like the Americanized Bautista likely would do. Brunt also briefly touched upon racial issues, that Bautista is a lighter skinned Dominican than Edwin, which may enable him to move among different circles more smoothly -- but going deeper into that would likely open up a whole can of sociological worms that Brunt was probably ill-equipped to comment on accurately, so he just left that out there.

Obviously much of this contact talk is speculation and armchair psychologizing on Brunt's part, but as he readily admitted later in the podcast, working for The Man he is privileged to receive a more relaxed access to the players -- such as trips to the D.R. to meet Jose and EE and the latter's family (Jose kept his girlfriend and child away from Brunt). So Brunt is pretty believable to me when it comes to those two hombres, as well as his brief takes on Tulo and Donaldson. It is interesting that he notes the anti-social players of the past like Stieb, Alexander and Acker, but I get the impression that if Brunt was a member of, say, Labatts' media team then (as opposed to being a beat grunt at the G&M), he would have developed a better relationship with the Stiebs and Ackers of the day like he does now working for Rogers with more stand-offish players like Bats and Tulo. In contrast, he took a couple of veiled shots at certain beat grunts who were calling for AA's and Gibby's heads 3 months ago (cough Griffin cough Kelly cough), instead of letting the process play out, which it has so spectacularly.

In my meta comment, this brings up a more serious issue of access vs. truthiness, as Rogers employees are hardly objective in their reportage, from Brunt and McCown and Wilner all the way down to the Zwellings of the corporation. But in turn they get exclusivity and the ability to develop more cordial relationships than the outsiders do; you won't see a hot take negative ninny article like Griffin writing "Jays are doomed without Tulo" coming from the Rogers guys. I guess it's good in a media-saturated city like Toronto that we have both insiders and outsiders. And with that, I will return to Game Day to enjoy the Boys in Blue wrapping up their first divisional title since I was a college freshman!!!
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Mike D - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#312229) #
NOW can I say "that should about do 'er?"
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#312230) #
haha, time to celebrate Mike D.
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Mike D - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#312231) #
I'm in such a good mood that I won't even mind O'Day prancing off the mound in the nightcap after retiring Hague, Thole and Kawasaki (all drunk) in order.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#312232) #
Goins having an incredible game.  Five hits and a walk. 
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#312233) #
They're chanting "Thank you Alex" in Oriole Park.
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CeeBee - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#312234) #
I picked a bad(ahem) time to get one of the worst colds I've ever had. sucks having to stay home in bed instead of being at work. I've been a Jays fan since the day ML baseball in Toronto was announced and this team is something special. I do have quite a few special teams though. :) What a way to clinch the pennant!
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Dave Till - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#312235) #
They're not going to be able to celebrate, because the Jays are never going to finish this inning. They're going to keep batting and batting and batting.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#312236) #
this desire to embarass and humiliate the opposition and never have mercy might be the best thing about this team.
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Magpie - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#312237) #
Oooh, Showalter looks pissed.

Good times.
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jjdynomite - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#312238) #
Is it greedy to say that I will be eternally pissed off at some as-yet-unforseen missed opportunities if this team as currently constructed does not make the WS?
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bpoz - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#312239) #
IMO, for game 2 of tonight's double header out pen is fresher than theirs.
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Mike D - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#312240) #
I respect the Hawkins decision. But I would've preferred Cecil.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#312241) #
Ryan Goins is the first shortstop in Jays history to have 5 hits in a game.   Not a sentence I had ever expected to write.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#312242) #
we did it. we did it.

and hey, does anyone want to talk about how scary good Marcus Stroman is?
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Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#312243) #
Cheers, y'all.

Congrats to the 2015 AL East champions.

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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#312245) #
They're not helping their Pythagorean record any with this unapologetic drubbing.
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BlueMonday - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#312246) #
Joy!
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#312247) #
"....does anyone want to talk about how scary good Marcus Stroman is?...."

It's incredible.  He is out-pitching David Price these days.  To add those two brilliant pitchers to the starting rotation, while still having Dickey and Estrada as the 3rd and 4th starters, has been amazing.  It could create a nearly unbeatable combination for the playoffs.
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John Northey - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#312253) #
This could work very nicely for the playoffs Stroman is just hitting mid-season form as all playoff teams are worn down over the long season. Price/Stroman then whoever might be perfect. Sure shows that losing Stroman in spring was a bigger loss than we knew and we thought it was massive at the time. Nice knowing Stroman will be here for 5 more seasons at least.
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Cracka - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#312255) #
What a great day for baseball in Toronto. The regulars are all getting the 2nd game off -- we might be the first team in history to start a completely different line-up in the 2nd game of a double-header... Jon Diaz is making a surprise appearance as the starting SS - just got "called up" from wherever he was spending the off-season for a nice little one-week MLB payday and a chance at another WS ring (he won a ring as a Red Sox September call-up)
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Cracka - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#312256) #
^ scratch that - poor Darwin Barney is starting in both games.
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#312259) #
Good move to play the bench in the 2nd game. Absolutely the right decision. The division is locked up, there's essentially a 3 game lead on the best record with 5 to go, and there's no need to play the regulars 18 innings in one day. Poor Dickey might have to deal with poor run support, but no big deal.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#312262) #
Who needs Tulo or Goins?  That defensive play by Jonathan Diaz at shortstop was very impressive.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#312270) #
poor Darwin Barney is starting in both games.

Poor Darwin Barney is trying to resurrect his major league career. I'm sure he is happy to showcase his abilities with as much playing time as possible.

Game 2 looks winnable. The two teams can play possum for 8 innings, and with the score tied 0-0 in the 9th, the big 3 can each come in for a pinch-hitting appearance in an attempt to end it.

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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#312272) #
Oh Zeke. Fringe major leaguers can't afford to make mental mistakes.
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BlueMonday - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#312273) #
Carrera didn't do himself any favours if this is an audition for the postseason roster.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#312274) #
Carrera didn't do himself any favours

Don't know that Tepera was even in the running, but the same could be said about him. He's now yielded 7 HR in 31 innings.

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jjdynomite - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#312275) #
Loup too, now, Chuck.

I guess it's impossible to wish Buerhle gain 10 MPH on his fastball in a week so he can become the designated LOOGY for the playoffs and leave the heavy lifting to Cecil.

One can only wish. Truly, the only Achilles' heel on this team.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#312276) #
#firegibby
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jjdynomite - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#312277) #
No favours for Delabar either. From All-Star to All-Scrub.
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BlueMonday - Wednesday, September 30 2015 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#312278) #
Muni, on the other hand, looks good for backup infielder in the postseason.
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 05:26 AM EDT (#312284) #
I respect the Hawkins decision. But I would've preferred Cecil

Cecil worked Saturday-Sunday-Monday, and is almost certainly the most important man in the pen for the postseason. Why would you use him in a blowout?
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 05:28 AM EDT (#312285) #
The Bo Schultz mystery continues. Hasn't been seen since September 12 in New York. Twitter confirms he's alive and well, but gives no hints about why he's not pitching.
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rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#312287) #
"Good move to play the bench in the 2nd game. Absolutely the right decision."

I couldn't disagree more.

That second game was embarrassing.

Winning the league matters and not even trying to win the second game was not the sign of true competitors.

Donaldson heading back to the clubhouse while the game was still going was pretty much the worst thing I have seen from him this year.

From highs to lows in one day.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#312288) #
Cecil worked Saturday-Sunday-Monday, and is almost certainly the most important man in the pen for the postseason. Why would you use him in a blowout?

I interpreted Mike D's comment as wry and sarcastic- "respecting" the decision to bring in Hawkins in a 15-1 game in the ninth inning seemed like a funny thing to say.  I laughed anyways.
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#312289) #
Ah, you're probably right Mike Green.
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#312290) #
Drew Hutchison gets the start today, with Price being pushed back to the Tampa series so that he won't have as long of a layoff before Game 1 of the ALDS. Hopefully this means we get another Price-Archer matchup, on Saturday.

The pitching in the last game of the season could be fun. I hope we'll see Buehrle starting and locking down his 200 IP, followed by Estrada-Stroman-Dickey for playoff tuneups.

My lineup speculation for today (while noting I was not far off with my much-derided suggestion for yesterday's second game).

1 . CF Pompey
2 . 3B Hague
3 . RF Bautista
4 . 1B Smoak
5 . DH Colabello
6 . C Navarro
7 . LF Carrera
8 . SS Pennington
9 . 2B Kawasaki

I think this is a reasonable lineup while giving some more rest to Donaldson, Martin, Encarnacion, Goins, and 2 of the regular outfielders. Maybe it makes more sense to rest Bautista rather than Revere, or maybe they play half a game each. If EE is eager to try for 40 jacks he could DH.

Gibbons may well choose Diaz-Barney for the middle infield instead of Pennington-Kawasaki. I lined them up this way because I think it's become a question, which one do you take to the playoffs? It was Pennington's job to lose but he's been pretty terrible lately.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#312291) #
Among the birthday boys for October 1 was Bob Boyd.  Here is an interesting biographical note.  Boyd did not get a full-time job in the major leagues until age 37 because of the colour bar.  In that year (1957)  he hit .318/.388/.408 and finished 16th in the MVP voting. 

Drew Hutchison gets the start this afternoon.  David Price is pushed back a day so that he won't have too much rust when he gets the start in Game 1 of the ALDS on Thursday.
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CeeBee - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#312292) #
I don't think game 2 will have much bearing on anything. Nobody's mind was on the game and I can't say I blame them.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#312293) #
rpriske: "Winning the league matters and not even trying to win the second game was not the sign of true competitors."

Having the starters play 18 innings in a row (there was maybe a 20-30 minute break in between games) would have been a foolish thing to do with the division locked up. Counting the tiebreaker, the Jays had a 3 game lead on the Royals (now 2 with the Royals win and Jays loss) at the start of the second game. You don't want to lose games, but if there was a game all season where the result was irrelevant, I'd say last night's 2nd game was it.

It wouldn't surprise me if Gibbons rests the starters again today with the early start time. That appears to be the plan, anyway. Then get them back in the normal routine on Friday.

If Gibbons were resting the regulars the rest of the way, I'd see the concern. He's not. He rested them on a 2nd game of a doubleheader where there was practically no break in between, and likely again the next day with a 12 pm start time coming some 12 hours after they were getting drunk and pouring champagne on their heads. He's doing the right thing, IMO.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#312294) #
Poor Darwin Barney hit a home run last night.  Yabba-dabba-devolution!
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rtcaino - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#312296) #
It is slightly unfortunate yesterday was rained out. Stroman lost a start, and it essentially wrote off two games.

(If they hypothetically celebrated Tuesday night, the line-ups wouldn't have had to be quite so barren Wednesday night and Thursday at noon.)
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jjdynomite - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#312297) #
I see your point rtcaino, but I, for one, am pleased that the next time we will see The Stro Show will be dominating a lower-seeded AL playoff team in the ALDS.

It sure doesn't look like he needs any more regular season reps.
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Cracka - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#312298) #
"Poor Darwin Bailey" (which I will be copyrighting today as the name seems to have stuck) is now arguably the best Darwin in Blue Jays history.

Danny Darwin had two good starts in 1995 after signing with the team in April... followed by 9 really ugly starts before being released.

Darwin Cubillan - five years later - made his major league debut with two effective relief appearance... followed by 5 really ugly ones before traded to Texas.

And now Poor Darwin Bailey has done something no Darwin had done before -- have a positive WAR! By virtue of his performance last night, Bailey now has a 0.2 WAR. Even if he doesn't play another game, he's a Blue Jays legend.
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rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#312299) #
"Having the starters play 18 innings in a row (there was maybe a 20-30 minute break in between games) would have been a foolish thing to do with the division locked up."

If players can't play two games (which baseball players have been doing forever), then they should have taken those players out of the first game, once it became laughable.

The actions of the team in the second  game were disrespectful to the game and to their opponents.

Donaldson actually left the game early to head to the clubhouse. He should be issuing an apology over that.

This isn't exactly Pabelbon level of messed-up, but it isn't very good.

Now people are saying they are going to do it again today. Talk about turning a wonderfully positive thing and turning it sour.
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hypobole - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#312301) #
"Poor Darwin Barney" could well end up with a WS ring.

What was embarrassing about the 2nd game yesterday? Only 2 things IMO. Carrera (on the basepaths and in the field) and our relief pitching.

Carrera has a better chance than Pompey in a pinch hit situation, but in every other facet of baseball, Pompey is superior.

It's worriesome that none of Hawkins, Hendriks, Loup, Tepera or Delabar looked good yesterday. At least Hawkins minimized his damage and Loup did retire both lefty hitters he faced.
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jjdynomite - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#312302) #
rpriske, comparing Donaldson's actions (inaction?) last night to Papelbon's is as over-the-top as Papelbon choking the likely consensus National League MVP.

I agree with you that challenging for first overall in the AL is a worthy goal, but I don't think I need to remind any of us what happened to a certain All-Star SS the last time the Jays played a double header. Sure, as they say in investment banking, "past results do not guarantee future performance", but better be safe than sorry!

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Paul D - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#312303) #
Now people are saying they are going to do it again today. Talk about turning a wonderfully positive thing and turning it sour.

I'd suggest that the only one turning it sour is you.

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rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#312305) #
I actually specifically said it WASN'T as bad as that, but hey...


He left the game before it was over so he could go start celebrating. I think he should apologize for that. (And that is it. Apologize and move on.)


I am looking forward to the play-offs, but right now I don't even want to watch the team play. (I can't imagine why ANY Jays fan would watch this afternoon, after the team announced they are aren't even going to try again.


Last I checked 'because they are all hung over' is not a good reason to not do your job.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#312306) #
It's worrisome that none of Hawkins, Hendriks, Loup, Tepera or Delabar looked good yesterday. At least Hawkins minimized his damage and Loup did retire both lefty hitters he faced.

Hmm, results may vary, but on my worry meter which runs from 1-100, with 1 being a fingernail that needs trimming and 100 being an oncoming Mack truck in my lane at 60 mph and less than 10 meters away,  this qualifies as about a 1.5.  Maybe.  If Loup is on the playoff roster, the lesson learned is that he should not be facing a RHB at all unless it is a 0 leverage situation.  As for Hendriks,  he had made 54 appearances and 6 have been bad and this one was very unusual for him.  I'd give him a mulligan. 
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#312307) #
rpriske I can tell you weren't around last time the Jays won anything. Every time they played a B lineup for the game after clinching.

In 1985 they started a young John Cerutti for the first time and had one regular start due to not having enough bench guys to field a full team.

In 1989 Cito Gaston as a rookie manager didn't pull everyone largely because it was a young team I suspect. You still saw stuff like John Olerud starting (he played in college just a few months earlier), Jose Nunez starting pitcher, Tom Lawless in quickly, Alexis Infante and many other names you wouldn't recognize. Yes, another Jays loss.

1991 they had an off day/travel day between winning the division and the next game so for the first time the Jays won the game after clinching. Still, looking at the lineup you see a lot of odd players like Cory Snyder at 3B, Rene Gonzalez at 2B, Roberto Alomar pinch runner.

1992 clinched with a day to go (ala 1989/85) with just one regular starting (Manny Lee) who was pulled at some point for Eddie Zosky. He did a spring training with the pitching going Key-Cone-Stottlemyre-Leiter-Hentgen-MacDonald-Timlin to ensure a win.

1993 clinched early, 3 regulars played the next day, Guzman/Eichhorn/Ward pitched.

So the times they kept a lot of regulars in the mix were the year they clinched very early and when they had a day off before the next game.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#312308) #
These trash games that are left can be fun as we get to see guys like Matt Hague fight to earn a job for 2016 and others like Pompey try to earn a playoff roster slot. It is a lot like late spring training.
[ Reply to This ]
rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#312309) #
"rpriske I can tell you weren't around last time the Jays won anything."

Wrong. I am 47 years old and have been a die-hard fan since about 1984. I remember where I was sitting and exactly how I felt both times the Jays won the World Series.

That changes nothing. Don't mail it in. Play like every game is important... because it is.

I was marginally okay with the second stringers starting the game. I didn't like it, but it didn't anger me.

But then Gibbons made it clear that he wasn't even going to TRY to win. That made me a little more annoyed.

Then Donaldson left the dugout. I remember thinking, 'oops, you got caught. You are going to have to apologize tomorrow.' but even the announcers didn't say anything... and they should know better. That is when I knew that this whole thing was just wrong.

Now Gibbons has said they are doing it AGAIN today.

That is just bull.
[ Reply to This ]
rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#312310) #
"These trash games that are left"

Trash games? Have they clinched the AL yet?


[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#312311) #
The 162 game season is a grind and just making it to the playoffs is a big deal. I am fine with the players celebrating. They have achieved their goal, the playoffs. No team starts the season with their goal to be the number one seed for the playoffs.

I have no problem with what the Jays are doing. Its the same as every other playoff team does so I guess that means that every playoff team disrespects the game.

Or to put it another way, only teams that disrespect the game are in the playoffs.
[ Reply to This ]
rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#312313) #
Well, okay. I'll drop it.

I apparently don't agree with any of you, but that wouldn't be the first time.


Over on another site people are complaining about a completely innocuous bat flip. Somehow a tiny little celebration that does nothing to alter the game offends people and a celebration so large that it causes a team to tank two full games is not. So be it.

I'll get over it. I love the game and the team too much not to.

[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#312314) #
Today's lineup is out.  Not a single regular on it.  It's the B team again.

Although I wouldn't go as far as rpriske's comments, and while I don't feel it's a big issue, I do share some of his concern.  It's rather disappointing that the Jays would deliberately punt 2 consecutive games, when there's a clear advantage to having the home-field advantage over the Royals.  Of course I agree that the timing (3 games in two days) is a legitimate reason to partially explain these B-team lineups.  But I still find it rather surprising that the Jays would deliberately put out such inferior lineups at this time of year.  I would have preferred to see a few of the regulars in the lineup, while selectively resting a few of the most heavily used players.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#312315) #
Ben Nicholson-Smith reports on twitter that Gibbons has said that David Price will not start again during the regular season.  It's a bit of an unusual approach- normally if you wanted to ease the load on his arm, you would send him out for five innings as they did with Dickey yesterday. I'm sure that they talked to Price about it.  I have every confidence that he would have a good idea about the right thing to do for him, given his experience.

I agree that it would be better if a couple of the regulars were in the lineup today.  I have no idea what shape they are in. 
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Gerry - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#312316) #
Home team winning percentage in the playoffs is 55%. Winning the title changes a teams odds in a game seven from 45% to 55%, in other words a 10% increase in one game. But that only applies if the series goes to seven games.

In the last 10 years there have been two game sevens in the ALCS, in 2007 and 2008. So lets say there is a 20% chance of a seven game series. Thus the Jays are reducing their playoff chances by 2%.

But that only applies if the Royals pick up two games on the Jays in the next four games. Given todays starting lineup, lets put that chance at 50%. Now the Jays are hurting their playoff chances by 1%.

What we don't know is how much are the Jays chances improved by having fully rested players. Or by having one less chance for a regular to get injured.
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jjdynomite - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#312317) #
Perhaps Gibby can test the starters' blood alcohol levels and any still-inebriated starters will get the afternoon off. Walk the line, baby.
 
Speaking of which, Hutch seemed central to a lot of the festivities last night. Should make an interesting go of it, especially with the likely hallucinating Kawasaki also in the line up: https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/649601567163723782. I am disappointed Tulo isn't getting in game action yet, but maybe Gibby is waiting until the non-scrubs are playing again in the final weekend series.
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rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#312318) #
It isn't just home field advantage... it is getting to play the Wild Card winner. That gives a big advantage for the first round.
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China fan - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#312319) #
"....I apparently don't agree with any of you...."

Actually, in previous threads, several Bauxites argued that the Jays don't need to give much rest to the regulars, especially since they will have some rest days after Sunday's game, before the playoffs begin.  Very few people seemed to think that "rest" was a key priority when the overall AL title was still up for grabs.  So the idea of two consecutive "rest games" for the entire regular lineup would seem to be unsupported by many people here, based on previous comments.
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uglyone - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#312320) #
The day after winning the world series the fans will gripe about something

This is why i enjoy every step along the way, and don't get hung up on championships. Their glow fades quicker than you think.

and weren't you just complaining that gibbons wasn't resting guys, china?

this is the kind of rest i can get behind - not about physically resting guys, but about giving them a mental break as a reward and refresher after an epic 2 month slog. if ever anyone deserved a mini vacay, it's these guys.

gibbons is smart enough to know that there was going to be a natural letdown after clinching no matter what he did. Best to give them the break, use the cushion we have, and then have them go back to work tommorrow with no excuse to give a half effort.
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China fan - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#312321) #
"....What we don't know is how much are the Jays chances improved by having fully rested players. Or by having one less chance for a regular to get injured..."

 That's a good point, Gerry.   I guess I can see both sides of the argument on this question.
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Paul D - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#312322) #
Let's say that the Jays are down are down a run in the 9th, with Barney and Diaz due up. Do they pinch hit for them?
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China fan - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#312323) #
"....weren't you just complaining that gibbons wasn't resting guys, china?...."

Nope, absolutely not.  I merely said it was a legitimate subject for debate -- while some fans were trying to ridicule it as an issue.  I suggested that a worthy subject for discussion was:  how to draw the line between pursuing the overall AL title (and home advantage) while still giving some rest to key players.  (I think I mentioned Pillar and Donaldson as examples of guys who should perhaps be rested for a game or two.)  And I said it would be nice to see some game action for guys like Pompey and Hague.  I never suggested two consecutive games for the entire B-team lineup.

"....this is the kind of rest i can get behind - not about physically resting guys, but about giving them a mental break as a reward and refresher after an epic 2 month slog. if ever anyone deserved a mini vacay, it's these guys....."

That's a very fair point.
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JB21 - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#312324) #
Run differentials this year: Rangers +11, Yanks +76, Astros +93. Do we want to play the WC Winner? Note: Angels are -7.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#312325) #
It isn't just home field advantage... it is getting to play the Wild Card winner. That gives a big advantage for the first round.

In many seasons, that would be true.   This year, it is very debatable.  Rany makes the same point from the Royals' perspective. 

Hopefully, the club fields typical lineups for the Tampa series.  Tulowitzki needs to get some playing time and it would help for him to work with Goins around the bag for a bit too. 
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Gerry - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#312326) #
Picking your opponent in a short series is dangerous and if you are seen to be doing it it can be a motivator for the other team. In a short series the team that plays well and makes the fewest mistakes should win, no matter who the opponent is. Is there that much of a difference between facing Yankees/Houston or Texas?

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Lylemcr - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#312327) #
Wow. Buffalo is playing today...

I think everyone is hungover.
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Chuck - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#312328) #
I wonder how Chris Colabello feels eating at the children's table for the second straight game? C'mon, man, I used to be your starting LF.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#312329) #
I don't think that there is a significant difference between New York/Houston and Texas.  The club, in my view, ought to be attempting to finish first overall while being cognizant of the ordinary need to rest players.  It is possible to acknowledge that the players had less rest than is desirable during the two-month run and accordingly a break last night and this afternoon is all right.  Hopefully, that ends tomorrow.
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Cracka - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#312331) #
In principle, I really don't like the idea of "punting" two games in a row. However, this is a very unique situation - 3 games in under 24 hours, which itself virtually unprecedented.

But when you consider the celebration and the fact that it's pouring rain today... I'm not upset by this decision, particularly today when there's a higher risk of injury due to the sloppy field conditions.

This could be a 5-inning game today.

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Jevant - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#312332) #
I actually tend to agree with you that the Jays shouldn't be completely punting the games (as I've said above), but it's not clear to me that it's not actually preferable to play Texas rather than NYY/HOU/LAA in the 1st round, all other things being equal (of course, things aren't, because you get home field in the ALCS if you finish 1st).
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NYJaysFan36 - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#312333) #
Not really commenting on the punt, but why wouldn't Navarro catch today? Real tough on Thole.

In other news, they are probably waiting out a delay if the crew chief is anyone other than Joe West.
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Four Seamer - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#312335) #
I'd have thought they'd show a little more interest in locking down the first seed, but I'm not sure it really matters who is in the starting lineup today, given that Hutchison is toeing the rubber (hopefully for the last time this season).  Once I saw his name pencilled in as the starter, I knew this would be a get-away day special.
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Dave Till - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#312337) #

In 1985 they started a young John Cerutti for the first time and had one regular start due to not having enough bench guys to field a full team.

I remember that game! Phil Niekro went the whole game without using his knuckleball (except to the last batter, Jeff Burroughs, who struck out). When Niekro put a runner on base in the late innings, Billy Martin sent his brother Joe out to talk to him, and jokingly had three pitchers warming up in the bullpen.

While I'd like to see the Jays earn the best record in the AL and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I'd rather not see a tired team have to limp onto the field on a rainy October day in Baltimore. (Whether they are hung over or not is a private matter.) Anybody complaining about the Jays' current situation should be immediately sent back in time to 1996, when Erik Hanson was penciled in as the club's #1 starter. Enjoy the division title - it hasn't happened in a long time!

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Magpie - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#312339) #
The issue of rest or not to rest is one where I'd generally put my faith in the guy who's in the room with the players every day. He's got a much better sense of who's tired and who needs a day than I do.
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rpriske - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#312340) #
"But when you consider the celebration and the fact that it's pouring rain today... I'm not upset by this decision, particularly today when there's a higher risk of injury due to the sloppy field conditions"

They made the decision before knowing that but... yes, this softens my view somewhat. I wasn't aware that the conditions were that bad.
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Dave Till - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#312341) #
Is there a rain delay now? I'm at work, and Gameday Mini just says "On-Field Delay". I'm assuming it's rain, and not an attack of ninjas or something.
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Magpie - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#312344) #
No. It really is ninjas.
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Dave Till - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#312345) #
They're not very good ninjas if we can see them. :-)

I found out that, apparently, both managers and the grounds crew were pleading with Joe West to call a rain delay, but he refused to listen at first.

I don't have access to streaming audio or video at work, so I can't find these things out first hand.
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hypobole - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#312346) #
They're applying drying agent to the field right now.

From Accuweather.com

"The final weekend of the Major League Baseball regular season could see many disruptions to game activity. Baseball fans looking to attend one of the last remaining home games in Philadelphia, New York City and Baltimore could be looking at cancellations, weather delays or alterations to the time of first pitch.

Already, the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles have adjusted the start times to their Thursday games due to inclement weather ahead of Joaquin."
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ISLAND BOY - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#312347) #
The regulars decided that last night's celebration was such fun that they have charged the field and are gleefully hugging, high-fiving and whooping it up. Joe West, meanwhile, is standing with his arms crossed, scowling darkly and threatening to award the game to the Orioles.
In other news, David Price won't be pitching until the first game of the playoffs. Really ? Isn't that a long time between starting games ?
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CeeBee - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#312348) #
The field is a mess. Glad it's the spring training lineup out there TBH.
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James W - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#312350) #
I am disappointed Tulo isn't getting in game action yet

Word going around yesterday was that Tulowitzki was going to fly to Florida today and hit against live pitching in the instructional league, and then hopefully play in the Tampa series.

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jjdynomite - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#312352) #
Thanks for the update about Tulo, James W. Regardless of where he goes, given his fragility, it's probably best that he stays as far away from Hurricane Juaquin as possible.
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Cracka - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#312353) #
Tulo was in the dugout today and did not travel to Florida for an instructional league game as speculated.
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Chuck - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#312354) #
I wonder if Tulo's questionable state of health will necessitate carrying 4 middle infielders in the first round of the playoffs (Tulo, Goins, Pennington, Kawasaki). They could then re-evaluate after series 1 when setting the roster for series 2.
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Cracka - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#312356) #
As long as we only carry 7 relievers, I think we should carry an extra infielder. There's room for five guys on a bench: Colabello (#1 pinch-hitter), Pompey (#1 pinch-runner), Navarro (Backup catcher + #2 pinch-hitter), plus two middle infielders.

SP (4): DP, ME, MS, RAD)
RP (7): Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Lowe, Hendricks, Hawkins?, Loup? (or Buehrle / Tepera)?
Starters (9): BR, JD, JB, EE, TT, JS, RM, RG, KP.
Bench (5): Navarro, Pennington, Kawasaki, Colabello, Pompey.

Never thought that Kawasaki could make the playoff roster, but here we are...
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JB21 - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#312357) #
Carrera will probably be on the roster IMO.
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John Northey - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#312361) #
Hawkins I'd think is a lock due to it being his final season. I'd be surprised if Loup isn't there as he has value if limited to a few LH hitters only. An 8 man pen with Buehrle would be my expectation.

So 4 man bench with Navarro/Pennington/Colabello and one of Kawasaki or Pompey depending on Tulowitski's condition - if he is close to 100% then Pompey if not then Kawasaki. I'm betting on Kawasaki.
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scottt - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#312362) #
All the starters will be well rested and should try to go 7 innings.

If Tulo is day to day, you can't DL him without losing him for the next series.
However, I don't know that you need 2 backups.

On the other hand, you'll never use that last pitcher.

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uglyone - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#312363) #
there's no way carrera beats out pompey for a spot when he’s better in literally every single way, right?

i mean there's a pretty good chance pompey is already a better player than our leadoff hitter.
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Chuck - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#312364) #
Puntage complete. That's some lousy entertainment. But I get it.
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JB21 - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#312365) #
I agree ugly, and maybe Pompey's game today will help but Gibby actually gives Carrera ABs, while Pompey has only gotten ABs in garbage time.

I guess you go with Pompey has a pinch runner and if one of the starting OFrs get hurt then Carrera replaces them on the roster?
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Magpie - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#312366) #
I would expect both Carrera and Pompey to be on the post-season roster. One is the backup outfielder and one is the designated runner. If Tulowitzki is ready to play, I don't expect they will want two backup infielders.

I assume Buehrle and Hawkins will both be in the bullpen. I can't imagine that Gibbons would choose either Loup or Tepera over the old fellas, and I can't imagine why he would.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#312367) #
The reason to prefer Loup over Buehrle is that he is more likely to get a single left-handed batter out. On the other hand, if you want a left-handed middle or long man, Buehrle is the better choice. I agree that he is likely to get the nod.
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Magpie - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#312368) #
On the other hand, if you want a left-handed middle or long man

I think you have to have at least one guy in your pen - left-handed or right-handed - who can pitch at least two or three innings. Just in case Estrada rolls an ankle or something. None of the other six obvious guys - Osuna, Sanchez, Lowe, Cecil, Hendriks, Hawkins - have pitched as much as two innings at any time during the last two months and most of them haven't had a two inning appearance all season.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#312369) #
Hendriks would be fine for three innings. I would just rather have Buehrle do it if the need arises after a RH starter. Hendricks is not usually effective when he has to face a bunch of left-handed hitters.
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Chuck - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#312370) #
Aaron Loup has had a strange year against LHB. He has faced 69 lefties, walked just one, but hit 6. He has hit no righties, but they have hit him (838 OPS).

Loup plunks lefties: 8.7% of PA
Ron Hunt gets plunked 50 times in 1971: 7.8% of PA

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SK in NJ - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#312374) #
I don't think there's any way they leave Buehrle off the playoff roster, even if Estrada gets the nod to pitch in a game 4 scenario. It's possible that 200 wins becomes the new 300 wins when it comes to Hall of Fame standards, and Buehrle is at 213 for his career. He deserves this in what could be his final season. It's not like he's clinging on to a playoff team either. He's won 14 games with a 3.76 ERA, 2.4 WAR, and close to 200 innings this year. He should be on the playoff roster, even if it's in the bullpen.

Who knows. Maybe he will play the role of 1992 Jimmy Key this post season.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, October 01 2015 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#312375) #
As far as playoff roster, I am going to guess 5 bench players and 7 relievers.

Bench: Colabello, Pennington, Navarro, Carrera/Pompey, Kawasaki
Starters: Price, Stroman, Dickey, Estrada/Buehrle
Pen: Osuna, Cecil, Lowe, Sanchez, Hendriks, Hawkins, Buehrle/Estrada
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John Northey - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#312376) #
I was thinking for a minute that Lowe might be left off as Gibbons seemed to lose confidence in him but since September started Lowe has been in high leverage (1.5 or higher) games 6 times, screwing up in just one (came in the 10th inning allowed 3 runs).

Loup in September has been in high pressure games just 3 times, allowing a base hit in each of those 3 once not getting any out. 3 times he had high pressure in July, all 3 times with a negative WPA. Overall he had 16 high pressure games and had negative WPA's in 9 of them.

I'd say that Loup shouldn't be on the playoff roster as useful as a LOOGY might be he just hasn't been that useful in pressure situations where the Jays would need him. Houston's best LHH is probably Colby Rasmus; Yankees dont' have any LHH over 110 for OPS+ other than Greg Bird, a 22 year old who is getting his first taste of the majors this year; no LHH on the Angels who would justify having a LOOGY; the Rangers have a few though. So unless the Jays fall behind the Royals and have to face the Rangers in round 1 I see no point in having a LOOGY.
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Chuck - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#312377) #
I always felt that Loup was overextended when pushed into a non-LOOGY role, as has often been the case prior to this season. But on a bullpen this deep, he'd add value as a LOOGY, particularly in the playoffs. There are many LHB among the playoff teams (AL and NL) that would not be pinch-hit for.

And then he has the season he had this year.

I agree with John that in principle, and in other years, he'd have a use. But this current incarnation of Loup rightfully does not have Gibbons' trust. I'd be shocked to see him make the post-season roster. Bring on Buerhle, the non-LOOGY long man.

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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#312378) #
The comment that the Yankees lack a left-handed hitter with an OPS higher than 110 (other than Bird) is not helpful.  It is a club that leans heavily to the left. Gregorius, Bird, Gardner, Ellsbury, McCann and Ackley bat left exclusively.  If the Jays face the Yankees, it would be helpful to have someone other than Cecil to get them out.  Gibbons intentionally did not throw Buehrle at them because of his difficulty with them.

For all his troubles this year, Loup's FIP and xFIP against lefties was 1.89 and 2.26.  All that said, I don't expect Gibbons to play the LOOGY game, and that is fine with me.  You keep Buehrle because he is the better pitcher overall and you don't have the intention of playing match-ups.  Either approach seems justifiable to me in the playoff context. 

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John Northey - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#312379) #
Basically what I was saying with the Yankees was that there is no need to play matchups for LH hitters since they really don't have a David Ortiz or any other scary LH bats. Might as well let the RH go against them unless they have crazy splits and a guy with crazy splits should have a higher OPS+ than 110.
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#312380) #
Here's the situation.  Estrada gets the start in Yankee Stadium.  Cecil has pitched the day before. After 5 and 1/2, the score is 3-3.  In the bottom of the sixth, the Yankees load the bases with (take your pick) one or two outs.  They've got Ackley and Gregorius due up.  Who you gonna call?  If you are happy with sending out Buehrle or Hawkins or Hendriks, then that is fine.  All I am saying is that there is a clear trade-off here. 
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Chuck - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#312381) #
or any other scary LH bats

I don't know that LH bats need to be scary to warrant a LOOGY. If you can diminish an opponent's bat since that opponent is likely to stay in the game -- witness all the LHP of late brought in to face Goins (!) -- why not leverage your advantage?

Old vintage Loup brought in to face a run of Yankee LHB, even if they don't drop dramatically facing LHP, would have been a worthwhile strategy. Loup would just hit all those LHB now.

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zeppelinkm - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#312382) #
I am late to this party but I vehemently disagree with the decision to roll the B lineup again last night. I am not alone, my phone was getting blown up all night by all the bandwagon fans that have hopped on the last couple months.

"Why are they packing it in?"

"Folding two games in a row doesn't make sense, don't we want 1st place overall?"

"This is a slap in the face, we want to watch the heros of the previous few months play"

Etc, etc. Not a single positive comment. In the office today, everyone was down on the decision to especially punt the Thursday game.

Funny that the comments in here lean the other direction, with the exception of a couple notable posters. Anyways, it is not cut and dry and I think quite a polarizing decision. One I strongly disagree with. I don't know why you would derail that momentum so badly. And as for the comment that every team rests all its regulars after clinching, it sure doesn't look like the Royals rolled out their B lineup in either of their previous two games as they pulled back into a tie for 1st overall with us as we lost the last 2 games with our B lineup.

At least, at the very damn minimum, when that game got to 6-4 why not bring in a big bopper with some runners on base to see if something special happens.

Very disappointed with the managing decisions, and I do not think the comments in this thread represent the fanbase as a whole or a majority. Everyone I know is shocked and disappointed with the product that's been put on TV for us the last 2 games, and with the team acting "complacent".

Keep your foot on the gas.
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Magpie - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#312383) #
with the Yankees was that there is no need to play matchups for LH hitters

And even more to the same point, the key New York LH bats - McCann, Ellsbury, Gardner - simply don't have significant platoon splits. Beltran has a bigger split than any of them when he turns around to bat RH, but even that isn't that big a deal (the guy is pretty dangerous from both sides.)
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#312384) #
Loup's HBPs this year against LHP are one thing, but not really the biggest item.  What has really done him in is a .380 BABIP powered by an ungodly 22% infield hit rate.  It's all been masked by the fact that he formerly was able to get RH hitters out with some regularity and the league has caught up with him in that regard (as Magpie thought would happen at the outset of his career). 

The fangraphs split page for Loup tells the story pretty well. 

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Magpie - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#312385) #
And anyway - the biggest concern of everyone here should be the Taylor Swift Effect. But the home side does have a few days to get over it.
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Magpie - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#312386) #
Loup's season has been so strange. If he'd been more like himself, I'd be thinking that all those LH batters who don't normally have platoon splits? They will get one trying to deal with him. But the 2015 Loup? I dunno. He's been nibbled to death by ducks all year. Bad luck, I agree. But best to avoid it altogether.
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vw_fan17 - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#312387) #
I am late to this party but I vehemently disagree with the decision to roll the B lineup again last night.

I already expressed my feelings earlier about this, and for the most part I agree. I think home field is HUGE for the Jays. However, apparently the field conditions were atrocious on Thursday, and <player not at his best, either tired, hung over, or whatever> + <bad field> could easily = <injury>.

I'd rather see Jays be 2nd overall with a full lineup, than lose one of our regulars due to a muddy/slippery field.
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John Northey - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#312388) #
I see home field as a 'meh' issue. Nice to have but hardly vital and with the horrid field conditions yesterday I'm glad none of the big guns were out there.

Now, tied with KC for the final 3 - Jays need to keep pace so 2 of 3 should be fine. Tampa has been a pain in the past but with this team it hasn't. Buehrle needs a complete game tonight for his 200 IP so you know he'll be into it and the team will want to help him in any way possible. Cecil, Hendriks, Lowe, Osuna all could use some work now. So the pen is all set for this series. Lets hope they all get one more night off.
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Magpie - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#312389) #
I see home field as a 'meh' issue

Ditto. We're talking about exactly one possibility - seven games against Kansas City. Otherwise it doesn't apply. And I'm an old guy. I remember having home field advantage against Kansas City in 1985, and how the team got screwed by their own ball park.

The starters earned a day off. One day.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#312390) #
The decision to use a B-team lineup for two consecutive games was made before the weather conditions were known.  Gibbons had essentially announced it on the previous day, after the clinch.  So while the rain is a good post-facto rationalization, it wasn't the actual reason for the lineup.

But while I am of two minds in this debate over whether to rest all of his regulars for both games, I absolutely love this Gibbons quote from last night:  "I’ve got to do what’s best for these guys, not what some bozo out there in fantasy land thinks.”

Quote of the year!   And a fair comment too.  It's about time Gibbons called us bozos.  So many fans have been calling him a bozo for the past two seasons....  He is entirely entitled to use the same insults against us, for once....
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#312391) #
I don't love the quote.  Gibbons isn't a bozo, but the best thing he can do know is set a tone. That doesn't mean calling out his long-time detractors; it means quietly making decisions that need to be made.  The celebrations are over (until November) and there is a job to be done. 

Gibbons does have a right to be proud of his contribution to this club.  The coaching staff has obviously done quite a few things right. 

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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#312392) #
but the best thing he can do know is set a tone

Maybe some of his long-time detractors are bozos..."now" not "know".  Ack.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#312393) #
"....That doesn't mean calling out his long-time detractors...."

Can't believe you would take this as a serious issue, or that you would feel offended by it.  Fans call GIbbons insulting names every day.  Gibbons doesn't normally say anything negative about his detractors.  He's one of the most amiable, easy-going, good-natured guys in the game.  Finally after years of insults he dares to use the "bozo" term -- in a cheerful interview about his decision to rest his regulars for two games -- and you're offended?  I think Gibbons has earned the right to joke about his detractors once this season at least.
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#312394) #
It's all a matter of timing.  The team has been, shall we say, exuberant in its celebrations.  It's time to get down to business with the Manager leading the way; this quote is about settling scores and triumphalism.  Leave "We Are the Champions" until you are...
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#312395) #
It's interesting to learn that the Jays offered David Price the opportunity to start another regular-season game to give him a better chance of winning the Cy Young award -- and Price responded that he didn't care about personal awards, he would rather rest up for the playoffs.  Most players do claim to be team players, but it's somewhat unusual to see a player who deliberately reduces his chances of winning the Cy Young.  (Because 19 wins would do more for his reputation than 18 wins, even if we know that it shouldn't matter.)

Here's the story:  http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/gibbons-david-price-wont-pitch-until-post-season/

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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#312396) #
I know that a lot of people aren't fans of Mike Wilner, but I think his analysis of the potential Jays rosterfor the ALDS  is pretty good:  http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/how-will-blue-jays-set-up-alds-roster/

Wilner predicts a 7-man bullpen, and he thinks the 7th man will be Loup or Tepera.  He doesn't think Buehrle will make the playoff roster.  As for the bench, he says the obvious ones are Navarro, Colabello and Pennington, and then he suggests that the final two spots will go to two players from this list:  Carrera, Pompey, Thole, Diaz and Hague.  (The last two are "outside shots", he says.)

His argument is that Thole's presence would allow the Jays to use Navarro as a pinch-hitter while still having a back-up catcher on the bench, and he argues that Navarro is a better pinch-hitter than Hague or any other option.  He says Diaz could make the roster if Tulo's health is still a little uncertain, since Diaz is a better defender than Kawasaki, and the bench position would be purely for a defender, so Kawasaki wouldn't be needed.

Interesting.  He might be right about most of this, or even all of this.

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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#312397) #
wilner is the worst.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#312398) #
Okay, ugly, let's see your playoff-roster prediction, and we can see which of you calls it right in the end.
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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#312399) #
Price
Stroman
Dickey
Estrada

Osuna
Cecil
Lowe
Sanchez
Hendriks
Hawkins
Buehrle


Revere
Donaldson
Bautista
Encarnacion
Tulowitzki
Smoak
Martin
Goins
Pillar

Colabello
Pompey
Pennington
Navarro

1 of Loup/Carrera/Hague/Thole
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#312400) #
I thought Wilner's piece was thoughtful, although I didn't agree with everything.

Here's an interesting piece from THT on expected wOBA from publicly available HitFx-type data and variances from actual wOBA.  The #1 underperformer for 2014 was Justin Smoak.  He's probably still underperforming although not to the same degree (and some of it has to do with adjustment to the shift).  The #1 overperformer for 2015 is Chris Colabello...Dustin Ackley was a leading underperformer this year, and I think that he's going to be a very good player over the next 3 or 4 years.

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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#312401) #
Ugly, aside from your Buehrle prediction, your forecast is virtually identical to Wilner's prediction.

I don't know which of you will be right on Buehrle, but I'm really not sure if the Jays need a long reliever in the playoffs, with all the rest days.  And Buehrle's stuff doesn't seem like a good fit for a one-inning stint.   On the other hand, Loup continues to do badly, even after his return from Buffalo, so he's not a lock either.  Nor has Tepera been all that good.  So, it's conceivable that Buehrle might be better than Loup in a LOOGY situation, while also providing the long-reliever option in case a starter is injured or implodes.

We might have a better sense of the answer after tonight's game.

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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#312403) #
tbh as soon as you mentioner wilner i stopped reading. i don't value his opinion on anything.
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#312405) #
I missed this throw from Kevin Kiermaier.  Old-timers out there, did Jesse Barfield throw a little better than this routinely or is it just me romanticizing the past?  Whatever it is, Kiermaier is one hell of a ballplayer. The range of Devon White combined with the arm of Jesse Barfield...
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Dave Till - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#312406) #
I'd have to check old footage to be sure, but I'd still say that Barfield was better. Kiermaier's throw was great, but he started from relatively shallow centre field and his ball went up the line a bit. Barfield could hit the target at third base from the right field corner.

I think uglyone has the playoff roster down, except that I think they'll take Loup over Pompey, with Carrera as the 25th man. They don't really need an extra stolen base threat or another defensive outfielder, and no post-season manager can resist having another spot lefty in the bullpen. Gibbons will likely go with Loup as a spot man in the 6th inning, Buehrle after that, and Cecil as the #1 lefty guy.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#312407) #
"....i don't value his opinion on anything..."

I'm always puzzled why people make sweeping generalizations about any source of information or analysis.  Whether it's a media outlet or a blogger or a fan or a commentator, there can be useful information or analysis in almost any source.  These days, there is a plethora of sources. (To borrow an R.A. Dickey vocabulary word.)  Makes sense to sift through and pick out the most interesting information from any source.  It's up to the reader to find the best.  We can judge each article or post on its own merits:  is it based on solid data, is it well-argued, is it drawn from fact-based evidence rather than pure opinion?  We'll always have our favorite sources, but I don't see any need to dismiss anything on the basis of the personality.  (With perhaps a very few exceptions.)  If someone is following the Jays full-time and observing and writing about it, they're as likely to have a useful bit of information as any of us.
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Chuck - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#312408) #
That was a great throw by Kiermaier, but I don't know that he was as deep as Barfield often was when he nabbed guys at the plate. I'm thinking that on a ball that shallow, they weren't even bothering to test Barfield.
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Dave Till - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#312409) #
Examples of Barfield throwing: here and here.
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#312410) #
Thanks, Chuck and Dave.  So what did Jesse throw, then?  102?  I guess he could have been a closer...
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Mike Green - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#312412) #
The 2nd link is better, Dave.  Jesse had lost some velo by the time he arrived in New York.  And yes, I'll concur.  It's a thrill just to see some of those throws from the Blue Jay days. 
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Chuck - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#312413) #
I guess he could have been a closer...

Sure, if he was allowed a running start. He could have even thrown a googly.

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John Northey - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#312414) #
For those who never saw it - watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT4yDMhn2To to get an idea of Barfield's arm. It was a thing of beauty. Runners on 3rd or 2nd with less than 2 out was always fun time as you'd hope for a fly ball to him.
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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#312415) #
"I'm always puzzled why people make sweeping generalizations about any source of information or analysis."

i'm not generalizing. i am talking about one person whose opinion i value less than most internet posters.
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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#312416) #
agreee with Mike - that first link to Jesse as a yank was a great throw for a regular OF but not vintage Barfield. that first highlight in the 2nd link was vintage jesse though. an absolute seed.
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zeppelinkm - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#312417) #
To me the home field advantage isn't just about the 7th game, but it's about opening the series at home and the mindset you're in if you go on the road up 2-0 or 1-1 versus having to come back home for games 3 and 4 and thinking you are in a must-win situation now.

Also it is a let down to the fans as well and the last two games have really sucked some wind out of the sails.

Anyways, it's down now and people can debate the merit of the advantage of home field advantage all they please. However, the perception from the average joe fan in the office, at least in my experience has been shock and disappointment. I am in disagreement with the decision because we have built some real momentum and the fan base deserves better then watching them get complacent after playing with such an edge for so long.

It was the first thing AA said after clinching the division too. "We can't let up, we want to get home field advantage for the playoffs".

At least we can get back to watching some honest competition again tonight. Let's hope they can up-shift into 6th gear quickly and play at the same level of intensity they had been. These games still do count for something.

Cheers and go Jays go!
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jjdynomite - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#312418) #
zeppelin, the concerns of your bandwagon coworkers would be relevant if:

1. The Jays are behind the Royals, but they aren't. They currently own the tie breaker so the Jays have to only tie KC in wins/losses to have home field advantage. Now they have a healthy and rested roster to attempt just that over the final 3 games.

2. Gibby in his interview clip with Blair and Brunt said that the players were really gassed after the Yankees double header, and we saw that two weeks ago with them losing two in a row, one to the Yankees and one to the crappy Braves, even with an off-day in between. Gibby didn't want that happening again, so close to the playoffs.

3. At its most basic, the Jays still have home field advantage over every other AL playoff team but the Royals -- and the Royals still have to win their own ALDS to get to the ALCS. Of course, the Jays do too.

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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#312420) #
royals also have to play a hot twins team fighting for survival this weekend.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#312421) #
"....Now they have a healthy and rested roster to attempt just that over the final 3 games....."

Not sure if that's true.  I've seen reports that the Jays might revert back to the B-squad lineup for Sunday's game too.  Again, it will be interesting to see how the decision plays out, with Gibbons balancing the AL title goal against the goal of "resting my guys, no matter what the bozos say...."

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Hodgie - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#312423) #
You missed point #4 jjdynomite, there is no such thing as momentum (in baseball to clarify).
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JB21 - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#312424) #
Sunday's lineup will probably be decided after Saturday's game. We have no idea what the situation will bring, maybe we've wrapped up the AL by then, who knows.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#312425) #
Maybe.  But the lesson of the past 48 hours is that Gibbons might rest his regulars even if the AL title is not wrapped up.
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uglyone - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#312426) #
tulo is back!
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Magpie - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#312427) #
That's the Wisdom of Weaver, Hodgie!

Momentum? Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.
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China fan - Friday, October 02 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#312428) #
With Tulo back, that's a great-looking Jays lineup.  It pushes Goins down to the 9th spot in the lineup, and it means there are offensive threats at every lineup spot.  Even the 9th batter has a .387 OBP since Aug. 1.
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