Very good move with Drew Hitchison. As long as he thinks he's a power-pitcher, he'll keep humping up trying to throw harder. Once that happens, his stuff flattens out and fairly soon he's throwing batting practise. That's not the quality Starter they need. I think his problem is mental, his world view, who he thinks he is. His stuff is good enough to pitch up here; as is his control. When he decides on who he is, he'll be a top quality mid-Rotation Starter. But for which team, that's the question?

Second walk of Buehrle's career. The other was in 2001.

I wouldn't mind seeing Gibbons start Pompey against a RH starter like Teheran. Besides, Pillar hasn't looked very good at the plate of late; maybe he could use an extra day of rest.

Pillar hasn't looked very good at the plate of late

Well, Buehrle's had better at bats tonight.

Why did Goins bat vs lefty then come out? I don't have sound where I'm watching

A poorly thought out double switch -- unless they plan on having Sanchez going more than 1 inning (not likely).

The double switch ensured that Barney would hit 2nd in the 9th inning rather than giving the Jays of Pinch Hitting for the pitcher's spot (with Navarro, Hague, Encarnacion?, etc.).

And if we go to extra innings, the pitcher is now hitting in the #6 spot and we've limited the ability to pinch-hit for one of the middle infielders. I don't get it either...

stead of

Why did Goins bat vs lefty then come out?

Unless I missed something, it was for the double-switch, where the 9-hole became Barney (with Pennington moving to SS) and Goins' 7-gole becoming the pitcher's spot.

If this is correct, then this is a crappy move 9 ways 'til Tuesday. Goins can't hit lefties, so he could have been pinch-hit for (even with Barney). You have tons of PH for the 9-spot, so you don't have to devise a double-switch specifically to ensure that Barney would bat in the 9th inning.

I am hoping I missed something in all of this.

The Jays almost need a NL manager to coach those inter-league games.

Why arent they loading the bases for the force here?

A walk would then end the game.

So Gibbons goes out of his way to maneuver things so get Sanchez a second inning when all season long he has shown a preference for a one-inning outings by his relievers?

Why do the double-switch in the first place? Keep Goins in the game after you let him bat against a lefty (for reasons unknown). Let Navarro pinch-hit for Sanchez in the 9th. Let Osuna come into the game to pitch the bottom of the 9th. Then deal with extra innings if they come, with the other eleven guys in the pen.

I am very confused by the logic of these last two innings.

It's the 2nd straight outing that they pushed Sanchez to a 2nd inning of work... It seems that they want him to be a multi-inning set-up guy (which is great to have). But why experiment with this in a 2-2 tie, in the 9th inning, after a day off, with a dozen arms in the bullpen AND at the expense of being able to pinch hit a power bat in the top of the 9th.

I've been impressed with Gibby lately. Not tonight, though.

We kinda need to beat th bad teams like this. Thankfully the Yankees lost too, but would be nice if bats showed up tomorrow.

Also on Sanchez maybe they're trying to stretch him out to be a starter again, but that at this point would be pretty desperate. Then again NY had to resort to that for Warren

Tough one tonight. Teheran's slider was dominant against righties, who only had 1 hit combined (a Pillar oppo-grounder). Without Tulo and EE and in an NL park, the lineup looked a bit anemic and when the Revere/Donaldson/Bautista go 0-13 it's maybe fortunate the Jays scored twice. Hard to nitpick with Gibbons when the bats simply don't show up. Fortunately the Rays held on the way they couldn't last night so the lead is still 3. Get 'em tomorrow, though against a much tougher pitcher. Hope Price is his usual dominant self.

They did lose, luckily.

Yeah, that's almost a "double switch to show that I know how to double switch." It's pretty strange otherwise.

Just noticed that Joba Chamberlain is a Royal now. 2 games, 1 2/3 IP 3 H 4 R/ER 2 BB 2 SO. No loss for the Jays there.

Texas now ahead of Houston for first in the West.

Jays 3 back of KC for best in AL, Twins now the best non-playoff slot team in the AL 1 1/2 behind Houston, 4 back of NYY. The Angels are the only other AL team over 500.

MLB.com lists the Jays odds of making the playoffs at 100% now 87.6% of winning the division. Been there since August 30th it seems. Boston at 0%, Tampa 0.2% Baltimore 0.5%. Detroit & Oakland also at 0%.

Donaldson hasn't looked right to me since he rolled over on his wrist in NYC. He might need some rest. Hopefully the Jays don't wait too long to do so (as they appear to have done in the past with other players) if this is the case. The Jays need him to be healthy.

Hard to nitpick with Gibbons when the bats simply don't show up.

Isn't that the exact time to nitpick? It's games like that when a manager's decisions are most crucial, when there's little room for error.

Odd decisions and lackluster hitting... but the game was still lost because of Smoak's inability to hold onto the ball after Barney's great play.

I though the was the defensive first-sacker? He blew two plays last night.

So Gibbons goes out of his way to maneuver things so get Sanchez a second inning when all season long he has shown a preference for a one-inning outings by his relievers?

I don't get it either. Sanchez this season had never come out of the dugout for a second inning of relief - not even when he had only pitched a partial inning - until these last two outings. Which ought to discourage further use of that particular manoeuver.

Meanwhile Old Folks Hawkins has made exactly two appearances in September.

Seems to me Gibby is managing a wee bit on the scared side. I imagine it's a bit tougher to manage when not only your job might be on the line but when your in uncharted territory with a division title on the line and in a National league ballpark as well.

My guess is Gibby is "playoff priming" his best relievers by stretching out Sanchez -- well, if a former starter getting 2 innings is considered "stretching out". Better find out the hard way now than in the playoffs.

The good thing is, thanks to soon-to-be runner-up MVP Trout, the Jays will have WS home field advantage so Gibby can screw up all his National League machinations, and the team can still win the Series 4-3 by crushing it at the Dome.

:-p

I suggested before evaluating Gibbons' usage of Sanchez that the pitcher is being "stressed" to see how far he can be taken to assess his limits for the playoffs.  I also suggested they know Lowe's limits and/or testing that later.

I suspect the plan is to see if Sanchez can go an effective 2 innings, and if Lowe can pitch on back-to-back(-to-back) days as a shut down 8th inning guy.  If they can handle the workload, a 5-game series would see Sanchez pitching the 7th and 8th in game 1, and game 2 has Lowe pitch the 8th in the next game (mix and match the 7th with Cecil/Hawkins), Sanchez can go two in game 3, with Lowe available if needed.  Game 4 has same plan as game 2.  Game 5 all hands on deck.

Sanchez went more than an inning at least a dozen times last year, so it's not uncharted territory.

Did Gibbons provide any explanation for allowing Goins to hit vs Marksberry, then subbing Barney in the next half inning? I simply don't understand the logic.

We're now 3 W's, 5 L's vs the 2 worst teams in MLB.

We're now 3 W's, 5 L's vs the 2 worst teams in MLB.

Baseball...

That is something I love about baseball. Even the worst teams can beat the best. Right now it sucks but it is that unpredictability that makes it a great game.

As to last night, my big issue was Buehrle coming out so early. He had at least 2 more innings in him it seems with that very low pitch count, why pull him after just 5 innings? Made no sense to me.

rpriske, this game was lost because the Jays scored 2 runs.

I'm assuming that if they were playing in an AL park, Buehrle would've stayed in the game.

"As to last night, my big issue was Buehrle coming out so early. He had at least 2 more innings in him it seems with that very low pitch count, why pull him after just 5 innings? Made no sense to me."

Jay had 2 on and 2 out in the top of the 6th, Buehrle due up. You would have let him hit? I wouldn't. And Buehrle wasn't exactly dominating - baserunner(s) and hard hit balls every inning.

Here was what I thought was a crucial point, very early. Teheran was having control issues in the 2nd, including walking both Smoak and Buehrle on 4 pitches. Bases were loaded 2 out , Revere had a 3-1 count. I would have given him the take sign. Revere has a 4% Swinging Strike rate, so I would not be that concerned if the count went to 3-2. Make Teheran throw 2 strikes.

Sanchez went more than an inning at least a dozen times last year, so it's not uncharted territory.

Exactly twelve times last year, and twice this year. He's been very, very good in those 14 games: 25 IP, 13 H, 17 K, 9 BB, 1.80 ERA - just not quite as awesome as the 32 games when he only worked in one inning (28.2 IP, 12 H, 22 K, 5 BB, 0.94 ERA).

my 2 cents:

1. goins/pennington/barney - who cares, really?
2. no problem with sanchez going a 2nd inning against that lineup in a tie game.
3. i might have a problem, though, with gibby's mancrush on sanchez in general. It's been pretty clear to me from the start that the move to the 'pen was gibby wanting Sanchez to be his bullpen fireman, used in crucial situations. It looked for a while that he was strictly an 8th inning guy but that's been more because the SP and other RP have been good enough not to need him any more than that.

my issue here is that I'm still not sold that Sanchez is all that great a reliever, even with his great ERA over his first 50ip or so in the bullpen. the fact is he just doesn't get a lot of Ks - and by pitch F/X that's supported by getting extremely few swinging strikes at all. his supporting numbers are barely even mediocre for a reliever this year - 3.48fip, 3.63xfip - though with batter ball data included SIERA does bump that up to a good (but not great) 3.08. the swinging strike rate is especially troublesome in a situation like last night with the infield in - contact is gonna get through that pulled in infield more often than not.

So far his career as RP, and where each stat ranks amongst our 8 best RP over the last 2yrs (Osuna, Sanchez, Lowe, Cecil, Hendriks, Loup, Hawkins, Estrada):

ERA: 1.33 (1st)
FIP: 3.06 (6th)
xFIP: 3.25 (3rd)
SIERA: 2.74 (4th)

K%: 19.7 (7th)
BB%: 7.1bb% (5th)

BABIP: .163 (1st)
LOB%: 83.8 (1st)

So I'm really not sold on him being the main man back there. At least not yet.

Of course, here's some supporting data for him:

LD%: 13.6 (1st) (2nd is Osuna at 19.4)
GB%: 67.1 (1st) (2nd is Loup at 54.4)
FB%: 19.3 (1st) (2nd is Loup at 24.8)
HARD%: 14.0 (1st) (2nd is Osuna at 23.7)

HR/FB%: 7.4 (5th) (i.e. not lucky)


so in terms of batted ball quality so far he's been significantly better than any other reliever, so maybe that's real enough to believe in.

but i'm still not too comfy about gibby feeling he needs to give Sanchez a much bigger role than our other good relievers.

Sanchez went more than an inning at least a dozen times last year, so it's not uncharted territory.

My complaint has less to do with Sanchez going a second inning than it does with Gibbons doing what he did to make possible that second inning.

Bases were loaded 2 out, Revere had a 3-1 count. I would have given him the take sign.

I thought the exact same thing (figuring that Revere himself didn't profile as the type to be taking automatically against a wild pitcher). Reminded me of years ago, when Chuck Carr was given the take sign on 2-0 but swung nonetheless, later citing "That ain't Chuckie's game. Chuckie hacks on 2-0."

".....Meanwhile Old Folks Hawkins has made exactly two appearances in September..."

Partly because of injury.  He hasn't been available for the past few games because of forearm soreness, the Jays disclosed today.

I just fail to understand the trust that Gibbons has developed for Sanchez as a reliever.

Generally, I don't trust pitchers who have wicked 'stuff' but not much of an idea about where it's going. Sanchez relies on hitters to strike themselves out too often for my liking. Give me a couple of MPH off each pitch with solid accuracy any day.

At best, he slots in behind Osuna, Cecil, Lowe and Hendriks (tied with Hawkins) on my "oh crap" scale.

Yes, he's been better in the 'pen (eg. 42:37 K/BB compared to 12:5), but his performance as a starter was a pretty low bar.

"That ain't Chuckie's game. Chuckie hacks on 2-0."

My all-time favourite baseball quote.

My all-time favourite baseball quote.

I believe the Brewers released him the next day, though don't entirely trust my memory on that one.

No one likes the Manager's decisions. Boo Hoo Hoo, that's just so sad. He's managing like he's scared. You do realize they have to still have to pay him next year's salary if he's fired - kind of the nature of his contract? I look at the Schedule and see 18 games left with the last Day Off another 8 games away. Hawkins may or may not be significantly hurt. That will clarify soon enough. I look at who John Gibbons has in the Bullpen. I can find no fault with his Bullpen decisions. If you do, start following other teams for a while. If you see what I mean, welcome back. If you don't, or like another team better, have fun.

Nice to see the bats wake up early.

The best defensive player in the game makes two errors in two innings? This could be a strange night.

Stellar play by Goins on the grounder in the hole by the LHH Markakis.

Another gold star for Goins (and Pennington and Donaldson).

This could be a strange night.

I think that captures the Braves' thinking on that 4-6-5 double play.

Any chance Pennington dropped that on purpose?

Tonight may have changed the AL Cy Young race -- Keuchel got bombed by Texas and Price is now the AL ERA leader... and has 7 wins in his 9 Toronto starts.

Price/Keuchel/Gray/Kazmir all have similar numbers... but Houston has struggled and the A's are out of it... so does that give the edge to Price?

Hard to believe earlier in the year that this team would have the MVP and Cy Young favourites... but here we are.

So how many guys on this team deserve gold gloves? Goins, Donaldson, Pillar obviously. Pennington, Martin, and Smoak are guys who deserve consideration. Really on defense the only weaknesses are LF/RF and non-Smoak'ers at 1B.

Keuchel has three more starts:
1) verses LA Angels (who are still in contention for a WC berth);
2) verses Texas (who just crushed him);
3) at Arizona.

Price has three more starts:
1) verses New York;
2) verses Tampa Bay;
3) at Baltimore.

I may be biased, but I call that: advantage Price.

Cy and MVP are nice for sure.

and Travis was leading the ROY race when he got injured. and Osuna will get some votes, too.

also have a chance at 4 silver sluggers and 4 gold gloves.

pretty good team here.

also have a chance at 4 silver sluggers and 4 gold gloves

Actually, I'll be slightly surprised if anyone on the Jays not named R.A. Dickey wins a Gold Glove. Donaldson and Pillar are the only other real candidates. While both would be worthy, I would think that Machado and Kiermaier have to be the favourites at 3b and CF.

I forget, do they give gold gloves to cf, lf and rf or just three outfielders, ie 3 cf's can win it?

Since 2011, they've gone to LF, CF and RF rather than three generic outfielders.

I wonder if Goins will get support at 2B? He certainly has been amazing out there.

Some interesting awards questions this season (with the obvious exception of NL MVP, as Bryce Harper this year has been head and shoulders above every other baseball player in the world this year. If he isn't a unanimous winner, there need to be sobriety tests for the voters.) In particular, Grienke, Kershaw, or Arrieta is a fascinating argument.

In the AL, Donaldson is obviously the MVP front-winner, and Price is very much in the Cy Young hunt, although I expect Keuchel still has a slight edge. Osuna will get some Rookie votes, and Gibbons will get some Manager votes. Neither will win (Correa I would think, and one of Bannister, Molitor, or Hinch) but it's nice to be in the conversation.

I wonder if Goins will get support at 2B?

He's only started 60 games at 2b, which is a bit of a problem.

The outfield gold gloves now go to a LF, CF and a RF, and no longer to 3 CFs.

I agree about Kiermaier. He makes the highlight reels and, despite the GG voting being highly subjective, it's worth noting that he leads both FG and BBRef in defensive WAR... across all positions. Had Pillar stayed in LF this year, or were the voting for 3 CFs, I think he'd have had a shot.

I think Machado, or maybe even Beltre, will win out over Donaldson.

I think Sal Perez will win out over Martin.

We all appreciate Goins but I don't think he's played enough at any one position to seriously challenge.

The boys in the booth seem to be seeing a different version of Smoak than I see. They see a gold glover. I see someone who is a decent, competent first baseman, but not really a whole lot more. And all that aside, Smoak hasn't played fulltime, which ordinarily hurts in the voting (unless you're Rafael Palmeiro, of course).

Gold Glove prediction: zero.

The boys in the booth seem to be seeing a different version of Smoak than I see. They see a Gold Glover.

You're basically right - Smoak's a competent enough defender, with pretty good hands. It's just that we've seen Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind playing that position these last few years. It sets the bar to a very different level.

I have no idea who will win the GG awards.  There does seem to be a winning team/bat bonus (last year- the AL recipients included Jones, Markakis, and Seager).  Donaldson is pretty clearly not as good as Machado with the glove, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he got it because of the winning team/bat bonus, in the same way that Adam Jones got it last year.  Russell Martin/Sal Perez is an interesting choice.  Martin has been much better at throwing out runners this year than Perez.  He has, of course, struggled catching Dickey's knuckler.  Perez is the incumbent and the Royals have done better than anyone thought they would, and some of that rubs off on the catcher. 

The Blue Jays scored their 800th run of the season last night.  With 17 games to go, they might score 900 on the season if they go on a tear. In the current offensive environment, that is pretty remarkable. 

Goins's play at SS last night was top-notch (at least for the innings I watched). I'm a bit surprised no one else has commented on this. He made a dazzling play to field a ball deep in the hole and throw out Markakis by a hair. Later he made a lightning-quick and accurate relay to third to complete a DP on the soft liner that Pennington dropped in shallow right field.

Superlative stuff.

Goins was probably the best defensive middle infielder in the league, at least until Lindor arrived.  I'd have to see Lindor more to have a better idea how good he is.  As Magpie says, Goins is unlikely to get a Gold Glove because he hasn't played even half a season at any one position.

Vulg wrote: "I just fail to understand the trust that Gibbons has developed for Sanchez as a reliever."

Me too. I'd consider the pen depth chart, from best to worst, to be: Osuna, Cecil, Lowe, Hendriks, Sanchez, Hawkins, everyone else.

Sanchez has a great ERA as a reliever (1.71), but he lacks the out pitch that relievers need to be consistently effective, which shows in his strike out rates (5 K/9 out of the pen), and his control is still a question mark (though much better as a reliever than a starter). Right now he initiates a lot of contact, most of which on the ground (which is good), but when other relievers in the pen are striking out 4-5 more batters per 9, walking just as much if not significantly less than him, and generally being more effective as a whole, then it certainly raises an interesting question as to why Sanchez is only behind Osuna on the team's bullpen chart. Performance certainly hasn't indicated that he deserves it over Cecil, Lowe, and Hendriks this season.

I think Sanchez has the potential to be a really good reliever long-term. I just don't think he's there yet.

I was going to ask if it was possible that Goins could morph into a Brandon Crawford type, but then I saw Crawford's 2015 numbers. Didn't realize he was hitting that well. Maybe Crawford pre-2015?

In his career as a reliever, Sanchez has a K rate of 6.5 and a walk rate of 2.3.  These are good, but unspectacular numbers.  It's the type of contact that he allows that separates him.  He has very low line-drive and fly-ball rates, and very few hard-hit balls.  With the infield defence that the 2015 Jays send out, this is a recipe for success (xFIP be damned). 

The more difficult question is endurance.  Having thrown 87 innings so far this season with one disabled list trip, is he ready to go for 2 inning stints in the playoffs?  Maybe not.  Is there any reason to believe that Sanchez for a 2nd inning would be better than Lowe or Hendriks or Cecil?  Probably not.  The safe thing for Gibbons to do is to shelve the idea of the 2 inning Sanchez.  That's probably what he will do. 

most of which on the ground (which is good)

That's certainly the conventional wisdom of the day. Odd, because most great pitchers that come to my mind were not ground ball pitchers. They were power pitchers for the most part, and like most members of the tribe they worked up in the strike zone, and gave up fly balls. The outstanding ground ball power pitcher - your basic Kevin Brown-Roy Halladay model - is not nearly as common.

Goins was probably the best defensive middle infielder in the league, at least until Lindor arrived. I'd have to see Lindor more to have a better idea how good he is.

Agreed. I certainly don't see enough of the other guys to make an informed judgement. But it's hard to imagine anyone playing middle infield better than Goins has this year. I certainly can't think of another Blue Jay, anyway. Ever.

The shortstop position looks very interesting in the AL right now with three very young players looking to possibly become huge stars: Correa, Lindor and Boegarts.

Boegarts is the oldest of the three, turning 23 in a couple of weeks.

Justin Smoak is, to be fair, limited in his range. With what he can get to, his defense is bordering on being very exceptional. The only reason he doesn't have better offensive number is too few at bats. It seems that someone thought the backup Catcher needed a few more regular at bats.
Smoak:::: 117 G, 256 AB, .223 .301 .469, 16 HR, 49 RBI.
Navarro::: 48 G, 148 AB, .230 .293 .331,, 3 HR, 17 RBI.
Colabello: 90 G, 301 AB, .329 .376 .528, 14 HR, 53 RBI.
I know which two I want to keep.

i'd say correa and lindor are ahead of bogaerts already.

bogaerts doesn't seem to have much going on outside a probably unsustainable babip.

You're still going to need a backup catcher. Can't see Smoak or Colabello doing the job...

i'd say correa and lindor are ahead of bogaerts already.

I agree. The first two appear to be in a class of their own.

The shortstop position looks very interesting in the AL right now ...

As long as it doesn't lead to another shirtless Sports Illustrated cover...

and seager might belong in there too.

and machado has gone back to playing some SS lately too.

As long as it doesn't lead to another shirtless Sports Illustrated cover...

I had to google that. Now I have to figure out how to unsee it.

I had to google that. Now I have to figure out how to unsee it.

How about comic relief?  Photoshop a bikini top on the shortstops for a modern version of the SI cover.  The South Park guys would probably approve. 

and seager might belong in there too.

I was only talking about the AL, but I certainly agree about Seager. Not sure how courageous the Dodgers will be in the playoffs, continuing to play the hot, inexperienced rookie or defaulting to the experienced, but not very good, Rollins.

and machado has gone back to playing some SS lately too.

Yeah, not sure what's going on there. Could be that Showalter is simply evaluating Machado to weigh his options for next year. That said, the Orioles still owe Hardy $40M for the next 3 seasons and that won't be an easy contract to move.

I would be dubious about a Machado move being permanent, but it definitely echoes Ripken, doesn't it? Start life as a SS, enter the majors at 3B, eventually move to SS in the majors and only move back to 3B when a budding superstar named Manny Alexander forces the situation.

How about comic relief?

I'm wondering if the Sports Illustrated web site features any representations of the fairer sex. I've heard rumblings of such. Could be an afternoon project.

Considering how much a backup Catcher will play, isn't Thole enough? A sensible mix in the Postseason shouldn't exceed four Starters and six or seven Relievers. Doesn't carrying at least one extra hitter limit/eliminate any At Bats for your backup catcher, beyond an emergency?

this convo made me try and figure out something......


All Under-25 Team (14-15 stats):


3B Machado (22): 994pa, 126wrc+, 5.4war/650
RF Trout (23): 1310pa, 167wrc+, 7.6war/650
LF Harper (22): 984pa, 168wrc+, 7.1war/650
DH Puig (24): 946pa, 136wrc+, 4.7war/650
1B Bryant (23): 582pa, 133wrc+, 6.0war/650
C Schwarber (22): 217pa, 145wrc+, 5.7war/650
2B Correa (20): 359pa, 130wrc+, 4.9war/650
SS Lindor (21): 362pa, 130wrc+, 6.6war/650
CF Betts (22): 789pa, 119wrc+, 5.1war/650

UT Sano (22): 261pa, 164wrc+, 5.5war/650
OF Grichuk (24): 435pa, 128wrc+, 5.1war/650
IF Travis (24): 228pa, 136wrc+, 6.3war/650
C Murphy (24): 235pa, 101wrc+, 2.5war/650

(IF Seager (21): 57pa, 221wrc+, 12.5war/650)



SP Fernandez (22): 16gs, 6.2ip/gs, 6.6avgwar/650
SP McCullers (21): 18gs, 5.7ip/gs, 4.5avgwar/650
SP Cole (24): 51gs, 6.4ip/gs, 4.2avgwar/32gs
SP Stroman (24): 21gs, 6.0ip/gs, 4.2avgwar/32gs
SP Syndergaard (22): 21gs, 6.2ip/gs, 3.6avgwar/32gs

RP Giles (24): 106gms, 108.2ip, 2.1avgwar/65ip
RP Osuna (20): 59gms, 62.1ip, 2.0avgwar/65ip
RP Sanchez (22): 46gms, 54.0ip, 1.8avgwar/65ip
RP Capps (24): 47gms, 51.1ip, 1.8avgwar/65ip
RP Kela (22): 63gms, 56.0ip, 1.6avgwar/65ip
RP Shreve (24): 69gms, 68.2ip, 1.1avgwar/65ip
RP Garcia (24): 59gms, 60.0ip, 0.9avgwar/65ip

If (Bryce Harper) isn't a unanimous winner, there needs to be a sobriety test for the voters.

This is the best argument I've seen against Bryce Harper for MVP, from @dastudes at the always-great @Hardball_Times: http://t.co/DBbx7Ck7XQ

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 17, 2015

Considering how much a backup Catcher will play, isn't Thole enough?

Except backup catchers aren't like other backups - they're going to start at least 45 games even if they're playing behind an all-star, maybe 60 or 70 if they're not. And catchers get hurt all the time - you need a Plan B. Navarro's had a lousy year by his own standards, but he's still quite a bit better than Thole.

But to get back to why Smoak wasn't getting a lot of playing time - while Navarro had clearly been a better hitter than Smoak over each of the previous three years, the main reason was that Encarnacion had to play first base for all of May.

This is the best argument I've seen against Bryce Harper for MVP

It's very true that Bryce Harper has put up some huge numbers in Washington blowouts. But here's the thing - Harper turns close games into blowouts. So... not buying it!

I have a question about the back-up catcher for the playoffs. Is it clear that Martin/Navarro will be the catching duo?  Russell Martin's hot periods this year (late April-May and September) have coincided almost precisely with Josh Thole's presence on the roster. It's a small sample, but it does appear that catching the knuckler drains Martin.  

The club has some interesting decisions to make in relation to the playoff rotation, with possible implications for the catchers as well.  The simple answer of having Martin catch Dickey and Navarro act as back-up may be the right one, but is not clear to me that it is so. 

On the other hand - lots of off-days in the post-season. There's a day off after Game 2 and another after Game 4 in the first round. You get another day off before the ALCS begins (assuming the first series goes the full five.) There's off days after Games 2 and 5 in the ALCS and at least two more before the Series begins.

Is it clear that Martin/Navarro will be the catching duo?

How large is the pen?  they can switch the roster from series to series.  Is Dickey your number 2 starter?  then go with Thole for the first of five series, 7 man pen, 4 starters and a 14 man bench. 

OF - Bautista, Pillar, Revere, Pompey

IF - EE, Smoak, Cola, Pennington, Goins, Kawasaki (unless Tulo is back) Donaldson

C -  Martin, Navarro, Thole

SP- Price, Dickey, Stroman, Buehrle

RP - Osuna, Cecil, Sanchez, Hendricks, Lowe, Hawkins

that's 24 spots on the 25 man roster.  im fairly confident on these 24 guys being on the first roster, with Thole the one guy I'm not sure on.

possible RP for the last roster spot-Loup / hutch / Schultz /Tepera

Is it clear that Martin/Navarro will be the catching duo?

I think it's a given, yes. I don't know why Navarro wasn't traded, but he's still here and he's better than Thole with all the pitchers but one.

then go with Thole for the first of five series

Five series?

sorry, best of five series.

yeah imo there's zero chance that martin won't start every game in he playoffs, so i see no use for thole.

what's the typical thing to do after dropping the 5th sp? keep 11 pitchers or add an extra bench guy?

or add an extra bench guy?

Pinch-running types have greater value to leverage in the playoffs than in "real life". Pompey's two-steal game a short while back would be the top item on his CV.

The Playoff Rotation needs tweaking.

In the League Championship Series and in the World Series they will play a seven game series. Two Home games are followed by an off day. Then three Away games are followed by another off day. The fifth game is played if necessary. Then finally two Home games are played if necessary.

The League Division series is slightly different, they only play a five game series. Two Home games are followed by an off day. Then two Away games are followed by another off day. The fourth game is played if necessary. Then finally one Home game is played if necessary.

For R.A. Dickey's "effect" to have any effect on the opposition, the Teams need to be playing the next day. Expecting it to work at all after a off day is counterproductive and unlikely to be effective. So either R.A. Dickey pitches Game One or he pitches Game Three to have maximum effect on the opposition.

So therefore, the Postseason Rotation must be David Price who must be followed by Marcus Stroman who must be followed by R.A. Dickey. They will pitch 3-6 times in the three Series, as they are needed. A fourth Starter is only needed to pitch just two or three times in the entire three Series. So he needs to be more effective than just that.

So almost anyone could do, but should they? Candidate #1: Mark Buehrle is hurt, possibly injured, possibly finally running out of gas. I can't see him also pitching in the Bullpen. Candidate #2: Marco Estrada is moving into totally unknown territory. He's pitching more innings that he ever has before. Is he losing effectiveness? He's been a solid Reliever in the Bullpen during his career, can he still be? Candidate #3: Drew Hutchison is the Jays' biggest puzzle. He has good stuff; he has good control; he has experience. He still doesn't know who he is, but a power-pitcher he's not. I have no idea if he's effective in the Bullpen. Candidate #4: Beyond this point of diminishing returns, I think it's extremely unlikely anyone else will be considered.

The Bullpen is easy. Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, Brett Cecil, Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins are basically locks to make the Postseason Roster. Ideally, your 4th Starter should be able to pitch Games 1, 2 and 5 in the Division Series if needed; and Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 in the League Series and World Series. That gives you six Relievers. How many more do you need? Who it is really doesn't matter if they can't pitch more than one inning.

I was at the Ryan Goins walk off HR game vs. Cleveland, and both of their middle infielders played tremendous defense that night (I believe Jose Ramirez was the 2B).

I see the conversation of the 25 man roster for the playoffs has begun. I'm not ready to pop the champagne just yet, but let me say this - a lot of people are going to be upset when Gibbons lobbies for Loup's inclusion. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Thole on there, even if the team decides to only carry 2 catchers.

For R.A. Dickey's "effect" to have any effect on the opposition

The Blue Jays went badly astray in 1991 counting on the post-knuckleball effect, and there's no evidence this year that facing the same team the day after they've faced R.A. Dickeys means anything at all. It's happened 18 times this season, the Jays have gone 9-9 in those games, and the Toronto starters have pitched...exactly like who they were to start with.

         GS W L  ERA  IP   H  R ER   W   K HR
Norris    4 1 1 4.42  20.1 19 11 10  10 17  3 
Estrada   9 4 2 3.48  51.2 45 24 20  14 40  5
Price     1 1 0 0.00   7.0  3  0  0   3  7  0
Buehrle   2 1 1 3.86  11.0 14  6  6   2  4  1
Hutchison 2 1 1 6.10  10.1 12  7  7   2 10  2

Question: if Tulo isn't healthy enough to start the playoffs (assuming the Jays get that far), can the Jays add him to the roster between (and during) series?

Between yes but during no, unless you can make up a phantom injury and place one of your 25 on the DL.

Huh, just heard Tony Bautista's name mentioned on the Sportsnet broadcast. I forgot he ever played for the Jays and, in looking up his stats, realized he had one really good year with 41 homers before being claimed on waivers the next year.

I knew there was something weird about his batting stance and just remembered. He'd stand almost sideways to the pitcher, then shift his front foot around more conventionally as the pitcher went into his wind-up. Hard to believe that's nearly 15 years ago.

Goins and Pennington 5/6 with a HR so far tonight. That'll play.

Pennington should at least  be hitting .240 .300 .320. His numbers are finally creeping up.

Exploratory surgery for Travis? I don't like the sound of that. You'd think an MRI would give you the whole story. I guess that's why I'm not a doctor.

Rosters for a series are set at the beginning of the series and no changes to the 25-man active roster are allowed except when a player is moved to the disabled list or any other inactive transaction.If a player is moved to the disabled list or another inactive transaction during a series, he then becomes ineligible to be returned to the 25-man active roster for the remainder of the series as well as the next series if applicable. Any player from the secondary squad can be promoted to the 25-man active roster for the remainder of the series to replace him.

just heard Tony Bautista's name

Tony Batista fun and games in Japan.

dunno if that's funny ... or perhaps racist.

I'm going to go with hilarious.

Not sure if it's the best idea to leave Estrada completely off the playoff roster, jerjapan. Long relief/extra innings/hopefully NL park, and all that.

Yeah, me neither. Studeman's own numbers of how Rizzo and Harper each perform in "clutch" situations show them almost equal in OPS - Harper with an advantage in OBP and Rizzo with one in SLG%.

Studeman wants to give the MVP to a guy who hits great in the clutch and good the rest of the way, rather than a guy who ONLY hits great in the clutch, but is an absolute monster the rest of the time. Rewarding Rizzo for hitting better in the clutch when Rizzo's clutch hitting numbers aren't any better than Harper's "worse" clutch numbers makes no sense to me.

"Not sure if it's the best idea to leave Estrada completely off the playoff roster, jerjapan. Long relief/extra innings/hopefully NL park, and all that."

I think there will be some very shocked posters on this board when the playoff starters are lined up. FIP and xFIP are meaningful, but to real life managers, results are what matter and Estrada's results have been terrific.

For much of the season, he avoided his nemesis, the long-ball. And sure enough, that's changed - he's given up 10 dingers the last 7 starts....but his already excellent ERA actually dropped from 3.21 to 3.14 in that span.

FIP and xFIP do have some issues with extreme fly-ball pitchers. You can best see that by looking at the elaborate breakdown on BBRef (which differs somewhat from Fangraphs).  Estrada's BABIP this year is .222.  That sounds very low, but it is important to understand where it comes from.  He has given up 22.2% line drives, 33.1% ground balls and 44.7% fly balls (the Fangraphs numbers are very different in relation to the classification of line drives and fly-balls).  His BABIP for each type of batted ball is lower than league average- (line drives-ME .561, league .615; ground balls- ME- .219; league-.246; fly-balls ME- .052; league- .077).  If his BABIP for each type of batted ball was league average, his BABIP would be .252.   If you use the Blue Jay team defence averages (LD- .612, GB-.227, FB- .072), Estrada's BABIP would be .243.  He does get somewhat more pop-ups than average and he has allowed somewhat less hard contact, so it isn't really that shocking that his BABIP would be somewhat better than expected given his batted ball profile and the defence behind him. 

There is a significant difference in his HR/fly rate from previous years.  It has historically been a little higher than average for a fly-ball pitcher.  This year, it is somewhat lower than average.  It might have something to do with the fact that 3 of the best home run hitters in the league are on his own team!

Is he a better pitcher right now than Dickey or Buehrle?  Quite possibly.

Yeah pretty sure Estrada will be on the playoff roster, but lets not take a game against the worst offense in baseball to declare him a playoff rotation lock. Still the same guy who has been pretty homer prone lately (and in his career). I do agree with Dan Shulman and what he said the other day that without Stroman in the rotation they can't win the world series. I expect Dickey to be in the rotation and then one of Buerhle/Estrada depending on how they close the season.

It might be purely an accident that the starters line up Price, Estrada, Stroman, Dickey, or it might not.

How the Starters lineup right now does not matter. There is a day off September 24th if needed to tweak the Roster. There are three days off between the Season's end and the Start of the Division Series. Depending on who pitches Game 162, no Starter will pitch on short rest. Who's #1, #2, #3 or #4 can be anyone in any order.

With the off day on September 24th Gibby can keep Stroman on his 4 days rest and flip him with Estrada, which would make Estrada the expected starter on the last game of the season. This would allow the Jays to then go Price-Stroman-Dickey in the ALDS, and would line up Price for the wild card game on 3 days rest.

there's a chance estrada could start for us in the playoffs but I doubt it happens unless buehrle is injured.

but even then i'm guessing estrada is in the pen as the longman either way.

Who the Pitchers are matter hugely, as no one questionable should be on the Postseason Roster. Now that isn't always a reality as decisions made can be strange. Every Pitcher pitches in the Division Series Game Five, the League Championship Game Seven and the World Series Game Seven. Those are MUST WIN games.

David Price will be the #1 Starter and he will Start 3-6 games if necessary. Marcus Stroman has the freshest arm will some of the best stuff and should be the #2 Starter and he will Start 3-6 games if necessary.

Beyond this point, I think R.A. Dickey and Marco Estrada are presently the front-runners for the last two Starting jobs. With all the off days built into the schedule, you never need more Starters. Since the #4 Starter may only make 2-3 Starts in the Postseason, he needs to be able to give the Team innings when he's not starting.

If Mark Buehrle or Drew Hutchison don't overtake Dickey or Estrada as #3 or #4 Starter, they may not make the Postseason. If they can't pitch out of the Bullpen, they are of no use on the Postseason Roster. That is why I see Dickey and Buehrle as #3 and #4 Starters, Estrada in the Bullpen and Drew Hutchison being a major question mark.

mike that's a great babip breakdown but even a jump to a .250ish babip would crush his ERA.

If Estrada had a BABIP of .250, he would have allowed 7 more non-homer hits, which on average leads to 4-5 runs applying the linear weights for singles, doubles and triples.  If he had allowed 5 more runs, his ERA would be 3.42.  As I said, the big item is not the BABIP, but the HR/fly. 

"but lets not take a game against the worst offense in baseball to declare him a playoff rotation lock."

You might want to take a look at the ERA leaderboard in the AL. Estrada's 3.31 is 7th best among the 38 qualifiers, which means he's been effective and eaten innings. His ERA is better than Kluber, Sale and King Felix among others. One game doesn't make a season, but results matter, especially as far as managers are concerned.

I appreciate Mike actually looking into why Estrada has bested his FIP rather than blindly believing in it as a be all and end all.

Which is not a skill. It's pure luck that is likely not to continue. Even a .250 babip though would be considerably less than his career average however. Put that to .265 or so (which is closer to his career) and it makes uo's point stronger.

We've already looked previously into Estrada and why his numbers are beating his career numbers. Basically hugely low babip numbers, hugely low hr/fly ball rates and high strand rate compared to his career norms. This is despite numbers like K rate and K/BB also being the worst he's had in his career. Basically he's been really really lucky.

That's good and all and I'm glad he gave us those innings because we needed them. But none of those stats are predictive of future success. I do agree that someone like Gibbons might be swayed by the ERA argument and run him out there in Yankee stadium in a playoff game but it will be a risky proposition. I think he should be in the rotation though for the playoffs, just the number 4. (with Buerhle not starting)

But if you go too far down the road of rewarding the vets and the guys who brought you there, that inevitably leads to a Price/Dickey/Buerhle/Estrada rotation which brings back the interview Shulman had. That rotation is just not good enough and the Jays will lose with it.

hypobole, stop trying so hard to make this into an era vs fip battle. it's not.

we have good faith in buehrle and dickey to beat their underlying numbers, so obviously that's not an issue.

and remember by just shouting ERA ERA ERA it means that you are the one slavishly following a stat.

mike are you including his reliever stats?

When batters hit a fly ball against Estrada this year, their slash line is .120/.120/.357.  It's a great outcome for him this year.   When batters put the ball on the ground, their slash line is .219/.219/.239.  It's a great outcome for him this year.  Basically, he's golden unless opponents square up the ball and he has managed to reduce that this year- he had room to do that thanks to a high K rate prior to this year so he lets up a little on the Ks in exchange for less hard contact.  His numbers have (as you would expect) improved in the second half with Revere out there instead of Colabello (and Tulowitzki/Goins instead of Reyes). 

I am including his reliever stats. Unfortunately, neither BBRef nor Fangraphs provide the breakdown of batted ball type results further broken down into starting/relief roles and you can't mix and match because they have quite different classifications of balls into line drives/fly balls.

As for the strand rate, that's a function purely of his ability to prevent hits.  Batters are actually hitting a smidgen better against him with runners on vs. with no one on base.  He is pretty deadly in both situations. 

I wondered how he might have been affected by the unbalanced schedule.  The answer is not much, and, if anything, it has hurt him.  He's given up 13 of his 22 homers against ALE opponents despite them having fewer than 1/2 the PAs.  He's held his own against the AL East, and done better against everybody else. 

Interestingly, Estrada's numbers look a lot like Dickey's from 2010-2011 albeit with a better strikeout rate, fewer runs allowed, and in a tougher context.  Can a fastball/nasty change combination be as effective as a knuckleball?  Maybe they can.

Managers believe more in actual results than theoretical results is what I am saying.

Bauer and Hutch have better FIP's than Estrada. They both have lost their starting jobs and have been relegated to the pen.

When has any team relegated a pitcher with Estrada's results to the pen for the playoffs, much less left him off the playoff roster?

I am with the 'Estrada is getting lucky' camp. Don't get me wrong, I hope he remains that way until the end of the season, but if everyone else is healthy, then there's no reason for him to start a playoff game over Price, Stroman, Dickey, or Buehrle.

It's always possible Estrada has learned something and has genuinely improved this year.

As Mike noted his K/9 is down significantly from his career norms. Why that is, I'm not sure. His velocity is pretty much the same, at least according to Fangraphs. However, it could have to do with some other change in approach that has improved his numbers. His curveball (his weakest pitch, according to Fangraphs) rate has trended significantly downwards in the past few years and his rate of throwing fastballs is at his highest ever, which is interesting. He rates very well on pitch value for his fastball and changeup, so maybe he's just come to realize that those pitches are his bread and butter (with an occasional changeup to mix things things up a bit).

We know that some pitchers can significantly outperform their FIP and FIPx, but these pitchers aren't exclusively junkballers like Buehrle and Dickey. Matt Cain for example outperformed his projections for years (at least until he got hurt) and he's a fairly standard pitcher. It's always possible that Estrada's doing something new this year that makes him some of these types.

Mike's info is interesting, and while I think Estrada's probably gotten a bit lucky I still think he might have a "true talent" ERA of around 3.7 to 4.3 (depending on how the balls fall), particularly after reading Mike's interpretation of the stats. Whether he makes it to the playoff rotation really depends the his performance (and the performance of Dickey, Buehrle, and Stroman) down the stretch, but I'd feel comfortable enough with him starting games, and we'd be crazy to have more confidence in someone like Hutchison despite his equivalent FIP.

"Basically he's been really really lucky..."
"But none of those stats are predictive of future success..."

We've already gone down this road before haven't we? Are we trying to beat up the dead horse again?

We understand you and some others believe he's been lucky and is due for a regression using FIP, xFIP etc. From a long term stand point sure use those predictive indicators on whether we offer Estrada a contract.

In the short term you keep sending him out there because if you've caught lightening in a bottle this year, USE IT. And it's funny how you mocked the Braves lineup, yet Estrada one of our #4s just went one extra IP and gave up one less run than our #1, against the same team.

Stroman is the wild card in all this, but I think if Estrada keeps up his "lucky" streak then he has to make the post season roster as starter, either as the #3 or #4 starter.

Just thought I'd browse the AL ERA leader board and I see we have Price at #1 and Estrada at #6.

But what I found even more interesting is that since the All-Star break, Price is #1 and Estrada is #2 in the ERA department. Looks like Estrada has gotten "luckier" as the season has gone on.

Also, FYI Dickey falls in at #5 since the All-Star break.

Not sure if it's the best idea to leave Estrada completely off the playoff roster, jerjapan. Long relief/extra innings/hopefully NL park, and all that.

Shoot, completely missed Estrada.  Agree 100% JJ, Estrada has value as at least a long guy on the playoff roster, if not a more important role.

Doesn't that read Estrada has gotten better, not luckier or not just luckier? Why? No one, and I mean no one stays lucky than long, and consistently gets luckier without it being the skill level increasing.

Over the last 3 years as a starter, Estrada has allowed 4.14 runs per game.  Dickey has allowed 4.34 runs per game in that same period.  Even if you think that his success this year is entirely luck, he's still been a better pitcher on a rate basis over the last 3 years.  As far as I am concerned, the trade-off is between effectiveness and durability.  Dickey has thrown 200 innings a year and has looked pretty good down the stretch.   He might reasonably get the start over Estrada for that reason.  It's a judgment call.

"No one, and I mean no one stays lucky than long,"

fluke seasons happen literally all the time.

"Managers believe more in actual results than theoretical results is what I am saying.

Bauer and Hutch have better FIP's than Estrada. They both have lost their starting jobs and have been relegated to the pen."


there is nothing theoretical about fip. it also is a direct measure of things that happened. it just happens to measure the things most under a pitcher's control. you may as well call ERA "theoretical" because it ignores unearned runs, when unearned runs are just as much "results".

and sanchez had a better era than estrada when he was sent to the bullpen. norris had a good era when he was demoted.

"When has any team relegated a pitcher with Estrada's results to the pen for the playoffs"

happens all the time.

happened to porcello last year.

"Doesn't that read Estrada has gotten better, not luckier or not just luckier? Why? No one, and I mean no one stays lucky than long, and consistently gets luckier without it being the skill level increasing."


I'd like to think so, but there are posters who believe strongly that FIP, xFIP are much better predictors and therefore Estrada will regress. While that may be a fair point, he hasn't imploded and isn't giving any signs of imploding yet. I don't really care whether Estrada is being successful because of a change in skill or luck. He's simply performing and frankly outperforming the other starters save for Price. If everything holds as is, I'd go with Estrada in post season as a starter.

If the playoffs started right now, I'd go:
Price, Dickey, Estrada, Stroman

Stroman is the wild card and I need to see more from him to bump him above Estrada at this time. Reason I'd go with Dickey in #2, is his home/away splits. He pitches significantly better at home, whereas the home/away splits for Estrada aren't significant.

Like UO says fluke seasons happen all the time. Or runs of 2-4 months when a player gets results that they never match again. Even with that it's not like he's been great lately. Last night he was sure, but in the six games before that he gave up ten home runs. That sounds a bit like his hr/fly rate regressing back to his normal rates.

You also can not match up a team and a pitcher and say because of one game of results that makes Estrada in any way comparable to Price. Heck look at Teharan and Miller. Miller has been much better this year but the Jays wrecked him while Teheran shut us down. But you dig in further and see Teheran is very good against RHP which is what all our good hitters are.

Anyway the comparison is flawed, I don't care that our mediocre pitcher can dominate a bad team, I care if our pitcher can dominate a good team. Last weekends Yankee result doesn't leave me very confident in Estrada doing that. He's walk prone and homer prone and while he is keeping hits down I don't think his formula is built for long term or even short term success.

So because of a person's past, present behavior is always a fluke, never an indication of improvement. Rather a scathing view of a society at general. So are you advocating he be left off the Postseason Roster - he's just lucky, he's not any good?

"I'd like to think so, but there are posters who believe strongly that FIP, xFIP are much better predictors and therefore Estrada will regress."

funny thing about that - those are the same silly posters who thought he was a good pickup this offseason and was just unlucky last year.

Of course there are signs that he will regress. He has been lately. In the previous 6 starts to last night's game he had 12 walks and 10 home runs allowed. You want to prorate that to a full 30 start season? That's pretty awful.

I do agree with your rotation, because I think Buerhle's shoulder is not going to recover this year. But if it did magically Estrada would be the guy to go. I'd much rather have the guy with the 55% ground ball rate and strike out potential and actual nasty stuff rather than the 60% fly ball guy who is striking out less guys than he ever has.

"....I don't care that our mediocre pitcher can dominate a bad team, I care if our pitcher can dominate a good team. Last weekends Yankee result doesn't leave me very confident in Estrada doing that..."

One bad game against the Yankees means nothing.  Estrada has had plenty of excellent games against good-hitting teams this year. Just look it up.  (Of course you would simply dismiss those games as "pure luck."  But results are significant, whether you scoff at those results or not.)

and again, estrada is still in play for the playoff rotation and how they all pitch down the stretch will help us figure it out.

i just doubt he'll end up with an era better enough than the others to outweigh their reliability and proven ability to go deep into games.

i mean for all this talk about estrada's era people still seem to be willing to toss buehrle's 3.61era (in many more ip/gs) out the window.

I don't think anyone is saying that Richard. Look at someone like Goins. He has made measurable changes in the last 6 weeks to his approach and it has led to drastically improved results for himself. But the changes he has made are measurable.

Estrada not so much. His pitch ratios are very similar other than he has used a cutter a bit that he had abandoned from 3-4 years ago. But still his fastball/curve/change ratios are pretty much the same. But instead of stranding 72% of batters he's stranding 79%. And instead of having 11% of his fly balls leave the park 8.5% are. And instead of having batters his .260 on balls in play against him they're hitting .220.

Some of that can be explained by yes the Jays are a better defensive team than the Brewers. But at the heart of it he is still the same pitcher. A 4/5 guy who can give some good innings and is homer prone.

So behaviour is not a fluke, but results can be because luck exists and even over as big a sample as an entire season it can wildly swing one way. It doesn't mean anything about Estrada. He is what he is, but nothing in what he's done has shown a sustainable change in approach that would explain the huge differences in his rates this year.

"You also can not match up a team and a pitcher and say because of one game of results that makes Estrada in any way comparable to Price"

"Anyway the comparison is flawed, I don't care that our mediocre pitcher can dominate a bad team, I care if our pitcher can dominate a good team. Last weekends Yankee result doesn't leave me very confident in Estrada doing that"

Ah I see, so what you're saying is that I can't cherry pick but that you can? Got it.

You care about a pitcher's "stuff", 95MPH+ heater, wipeout slider, unhittable curve etc and use FIP, xFIP to help build your case. BTW, we waited for Hutch's performance to align more closely with his FIP, xFIP and it didn't this year and resulted him getting bumped to the pen with Stroman back. I guess the Blue Jays thought that the predictive indicators weren't going to suddenly happen down the stretch and into playoffs. While I also prefer someone with "stuff", I don't care as long as we get results.

High time we agree to disagree, I'm not going to convince you that Estrada is worth taking a chance on and you're not going to convince me only have a #1 and a bunch of #4s/#5s, whose luck is going to run out the moment the playoffs hit.

It depends China if you believe the ability to get batters to hit 40 points lower on balls in play or hit a third less home runs off fly balls is a skill he's developed. If you do than sure Estrada has turned some corner and go with him.

If you don't believe they are (like me and most baseball writers/statisticians out there) than you're glad Estrada has done what he's done but to not push your luck more than you already have. Since no one in the last 15 years has a career babip against of lower than .250 I'd call .221 unsustainable.

The issue with Buehrle is simply that he has not been as sharp as usual over the 2nd half of the season and has had shoulder issues.  I am sure that performance over the next two weeks will play an important role in the playoff rotation after Price. That goes for all of the names we have been discussing. 

"i mean for all this talk about estrada's era people still seem to be willing to toss buehrle's 3.61era (in many more ip/gs) out the window."

Except since the all-star break, Buerhle has a 4.34 ERA with only 58 IP. The fact the injuries and perhaps father time is catching up to him might just have a small role in people's mind. It's the "what have you done lately" that comes to mind with Buerhle.

For the playoffs there will be a lot of factors in play, some obvious (pitchers ERA, health), some not as obvious (how well does his pitches match up vs the other teams likely hitting starters). Note that 2nd part isn't how had he done vs team xyz but how do you expect him to do vs that teams current hitters.

Likely playoff opponents... NYY, KC, Texas, Houston, Angels & Twins still in contention. So lots of variables there. Plus the Jays might look at cutting how many innings guys not named 'David Price' get. Twice through the order instead of three times for the starter, then make use of the deep pen.

No it's not the same Cruzin. I said it didn't leave me confident he'd do it. But you tried to build some case that since both Price/Estrada played the Braves and since Estrada pitched better there that it has some sort of reason that he's anywhere as good a pitcher. He's not.

I have made a consistent case (backed up by stats) that Estrada is what he is, a fly ball pitcher prone to giving up home runs. Well in Texas, NY and Houston we have 3 prospective playoff opponents all very capable of hitting lots of them. If all were healthy I'd rather take my chances with Dickey or Buerhle against them over the fly ball guy. If we were playing the Royals though I might prefer to have Estrada in there since that team isn't as capable of blasting us out of the park.

You can keep coming back to the results. Guess what, they're not predictive. Otherwise Romero would still be with us and pitching great. Hutchison would have those times when he was going well but then he'd fall into that big inning and get shelled. He needs to rediscover his slider so he can get his out pitch back (so many times he got up 0-2 and then foul/foul/foul followed by a hit because he couldn't put them away) But under those issues he still has very good command and stuff and if he can put it all together he'll be very valuable to the Jays next year.

But sure we can agree to disagree, not that I think it matters. I don't think Buerhle is going to recover his form this year so by default the rotation is going to be Price/Dickey/Stroman/Estrada.

"....If you don't believe they are (like me and most baseball writers/statisticians out there)...."

You haven't even convinced most people on Batters Box, let alone "most baseball writers/statisticians out there."

Do you claim that the Jays don't have any statisticians on their staff?  Or do you simply claim that the statisticians on the Jays staff are simply less intelligent than you?

Your argument about "pure luck" is a very convenient one.  You can just keep trotting it out, month after month, ignoring every result.  If he pitched badly in May or June or September, you would claim that it proved your point.  And if he pitches well, you just dismiss it as "pure luck."  It's an absolutely impregnable theory, because nothing can shake you.  You just ignore results, stick to your claims, and dismiss all contradictory evidence as "flukes."  No wonder you repeat it so often.

The Sportsnet Site had Estrada speaking about his outing. I don't know if it's up, but if it is go listen. If you've already condemned him, don't bother.

He did say he spoke with Pete Walker and they made changes which let him go 8.0 innings on just 99 pitches. People always make changes when things don't work. Sometimes they work; sometimes they don't and more changes ensue. If they work and there a track record to show it works, it's accepted as "getting better". But until then, it's a small sample and not reliable. Well guess what people, you have to start somewhere, small sample or not. Assuming his arm doesn't fall off in the mean time, he's got three more starts to show us what he's got.

So what i'm hearing is that the best way to choose your playoff rotation is to take the top-4 2nd half ERAs? we throw all other considerations out as silly nerdliness?

"....You can keep coming back to the results. Guess what, they're not predictive...."

Your theories are far less predictive than the results.  If your theories were predictive, you would have predicted poor results a long time ago.  You would have predicted poor results in May or June or July or August or September.  Instead you just keep predicting and waiting for the day when the prediction finally comes true, like a broken clock that is accurate twice a day.  The problem with your "predictive" claim is that you have no idea when the prediction will come true.  What's the use of a prediction that has no time frame?  It's like saying, "I predict the Jays will miss the playoffs, and I'm certain that my prediction is accurate, except that I'm not sure if it will be accurate this year or next year or the year after.  But eventually my prediction will be predictive."  That's useless analysis.

"....Otherwise Romero would still be with us and pitching great...."

Romero is completely irrelevant to this discussion.  Romero is gone because of his outrageously high BB rate.  Estrada never had anything even remotely similar to Romero's struggles.

Do you call a babip on ball in play of .220 to be anything other than pure luck China? (when in the history of baseball no one has a career babip against lower than .240 as a starter?) Career wise his babip against is actually on the very low side for a starting pitcher, but that many deviations off the mean isn't a skill.

As for pure luck, I meant the difference in his era versus his underlying fundamentals. He's not a number 2 like his era might suggest, he is a number 4 getting lucky and giving the results of a number 2. Just be happy he's given it so far, but it doesn't have any predictive nature going forward.

I ran a Play Index to see which pitchers in the expansion era (after 1961) have had a BABIP under .260 in over 1000 innings.  The knuckleballers (Wilhelm and Hough) were of course there.  There were interesting names like Andy Messersmith, Catfish Hunter and Chris Young.  Young, like Estrada, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher.  From 2006 to 2009, his BABIPs were .226, .241, .254, .250.  He was hurt a lot after that until the last two years.  During those two years, his BABIPs have been .238 and .218. For his career (over 1000 innings), Young has an ERA of 3.71, a FIP of 4.40 and an xFIP of 4.87 (SIERA of 4.68). 

"Do you claim that the Jays don't have any statisticians on their staff? "

they have very good ones.

which is why they make smart pickups like Marco Estrada when smartasses who say we shouldn't look past ERA think he's crap.

"For his career (over 1000 innings), Young has an ERA of 3.71, a FIP of 4.40 and an xFIP of 4.87 (SIERA of 4.68). "

and this is where the rubber hits the road.

Estrada career as SP: 3.96era, 4.27fip, 4.10xfip, 3.86siera

Before this season: 4.20era, 4.20fip, 3.76xfip, 3.56siera


Estrada is not like Young. He has no track record of beating his peripherals. His era lines up very nice with his underlying numbers.

Here is the analysis.

Estrada Career: babip: .263 HR/FB%: 11.2%
This season: babip: .220 HR/FB: 8.6%

His ERA will match his career ERA when those 2 numbers stabilize to his career norms. A HR/FB % of what he currently has puts him in the top 35 for rate of starting pitchers who have pitched in the last 15 years (2000 to 2015) A babip of .221 puts him 29 points in front of the lowest pitcher on that list (Chris Young at .250)

So if your belief is that Estrada has turned a corner and has top 35 home run suppression rates and his several standard deviations below career league average in babip and call that not luck than we better sign up Estrada quick since that's pretty good stuff. (link of pitchers below)

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2000&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,a

Also mention his 79.1% current strand rate would also be number one on the list of starters who have played in the last 15 years.

So to summarize:
Current strand rate better than any starter's career average in last 15 years. Babip 29 points lower than any qualified pitcher on the list. Top 10% in hr suppression. This is what I call luck. If anyone wants to blast me for suggesting Estrada's performance so far this year isn't heavily weighted by luck than start with those stats, especially the strand rate and the babip.

"...His ERA will match his career ERA when those 2 numbers stabilize to his career norms..."

The assumption that everyone must "stabilize to career norms" is the Achilles heel in your analysis.  At least half of the Jays current roster have turned corners and outperformed their career norms (without regressing) at some point in their careers.  If you blindly predict that everyone will go backwards instead of forwards, you will miss a huge amount of good performance, as you have repeatedly done with Estrada.

At some point the numbers are too far out the norm for that CF. A true skill babip rate of .221 would be multiple standard deviations off the mean. Aka statistically impossible. It would basically mean that he has a unique skill set that no one else in the history of baseball has ever come close to.

When Jose goes and hits 50 home runs in a year, it's unusual but not improbable. Many players have hit 50 home runs in a year before. When Estrada goes and develops a skill to have batters hit 30 points lower against him than any other starter currently in the game that's not the same. To accept that Estrada has turned the corner like you need to believe that he has better strand rates than anyone in the game and a skill to suppress hitting that no one else even comes close to matching.

You need to give me some explanation why Estrada is that much better in those 2 skills than anyone else in baseball.

"....If anyone wants to blast me for suggesting Estrada's performance so far this year isn't heavily weighted by luck...."

Earlier you said Estrada's performance was "pure luck."  Now you're saying it is "heavily weighted by luck."  You're climbing down and backing away from your earlier claim.

Of course everyone's performance is "weighted by luck" -- both good luck and bad luck.  Nobody is saying that "luck" isn't a factor in everyone's performance.  But you claimed that Estrada's performance was "pure luck" and "a fluke" and now you are trying to back down to something closer to reality.

Nobody here is saying that Estrada will continue to be a top-10 pitcher for the rest of his career.  Nobody is saying that he might not regress a little.  Nobody is saying that luck isn't part of baseball.   Nobody is saying that Estrada is absolutely as good as every current statistic suggests.  But I think most baseball writers and statisticians would never dismiss his performance as "pure luck" and "a fluke" -- and they would concede the possibility that he has improved somewhat this year and may have become a better pitcher than the pre-2015 assumptions (and remember that those assumptions were by people who thought he was a mere bullpen arm or a non-tender candidate or a vast underpay for Adam Lind).

"....It would basically mean that he has a unique skill set that no one else in the history of baseball has ever come close to..... To accept that Estrada has turned the corner like you need to believe that he has better strand rates than anyone in the game and a skill to suppress hitting that no one else even comes close to matching.....  You need to give me some explanation why Estrada is that much better in those 2 skills than anyone else in baseball...."

You're completely inventing a straw-man argument here.  Absolutely nobody is claiming that Estrada is the best pitcher in baseball.  Please cite a single post by anyone who has claimed that Estrada has "unique skills" that are "better than anyone in the game" and that "no one else even comes close to matching."   You are inventing a claim that nobody made and then attacking the straw man, instead of addressing what people are actually saying.

To summarize my argument:  Estrada's performance is not "pure luck."  He should not be dismissed as a poor pitcher who fluked his way into good results.  He is pitching better in 2015 than he has in the past.  He has demonstrated over the course of 2015 that he is a good starting pitcher.  He should be considered as a possible playoff starter.  That's it.  Nothing else.

My response was to Mike Green's post, which was talking about his babip. His babip is currently pure luck. A .221 rate when the career best of any player in 15 years is .250 and league average is .300. Even at a guy who before this year had good career babip numbers in the mid .260s. So yes he has a skill to suppress babip already, but then he went and knocked 45 more points off of that. Someone else can do the math on how many standard deviations from the mean a .221 babip is.

Strand rate and hr/fb I agree are not crazy, since his numbers there are much lower than his career, but not hugely lower than the rest of the league. From what I've read strand rate is something pitchers can control to an extent, but I've not read much of pitchers having control over hr/fb rate as something they can improve..

I don't think I'm inventing a strawman here. Uglyone posted his stats pretty well. His ERA is down but his fip/xFip are up. His walk rate is up, his K rate is down. So you look at that and wonder how is he getting the low ERA if those underlying numbers are poor.

And like Mike said it comes down to three things.
221 babip, 79% strand rate, 8.6% HR/FB rate.

The first 2 things are very exceptional rates. They happen yes in single seasons because of short sample size, but no one has repeated either rate for their career. The HR/FB many pitchers have done, but it is significantly lower than his career rate before this year.

So to dig into his success (like Mike did earlier) you have to look at those stats because they're driving his ERA change this year. High strand rates happen. Greinke this year might win the CY over his better teammate because he's been much more lucky with runners on base than Kershaw. Babip obviously fluctuates year to year. Just look at Jose Bautista and examine the years he's hit .300 or come close to the ones he hasn't. HR/FB I'm not sure on how stable a stat it is. Probably fairly volatile on the brief searches I looked at.

So to summarize my view of Estrada. He is walking more people than he has in his career. He is striking out less batters. When a batter puts a ball in play against him it is at league low rates on % of times it ends up in play. He is in the top 10 of starting pitchers in stranding batters on base. He is only giving up home runs on 8.6% of fly balls this year compared to 11.2 or so career wise.

Your view of how lucky or not he is is very much bound up in how much control you think he has over those last 3 values. If they were the same as his career values his ERA like uglyone says would be in line with his fip/xfip. I view it mostly as luck, you clearly don't. Since two of those values if compared to career averages of starting pitchers currently in the game would be the best in the league (and in the case of babip miles ahead of number 2) I think it's not sustainable.

The "pure luck" argument about Marco Estrada is completely demolished in this analysis:

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/

My, My, My, look at everyone rushing to defend their position and getting desperate doing so.

The Fourth Starter for the Postseason Rotation is:
(Let the bells ring out and the banners fly):
one of the following:
(The best of the worst):
Mark Buehrle, who may or not be healthy, or effective from this point on;
Drew Hutchison, who's not very effective despite being healthy;
Marco Estrada who is pitching better than either of then right now;
Jeff Francis who might be somewhat effective if he's also lucky; need I go on?

Marco Estrada's first 13 starts prior to the ASG: 6-5 3.74 79.1 IP, 70 Hits with 9 HR, 26 BB 61 SO and .229 .290 .379.
But in the 12 games since the ASG, Estrada is, 9-3 2.70 73.1 IP, 47 Hits with 11 HR, 22 BB, 48 SO and .185 .254 .358.

I just don't know where you get your ideas from.

So that article (and the ESPN one) are about spin rate on fastballs mainly, curveball difference and release points. Well the author already showed the release point change happened the year before, the curveball difference was on the order of .5 of an inch (yep he was a 6.5 two years ago and in the low 6s last year compared to 6.97 this year, I'm sure that half an inch makes as huge a difference as the author states).

As for the article on rising fastballs. I'm sure it helps, but the list of pitchers with the most spin on their fastball also includes such standouts as Danny Duffy, Gausman, Chris Tilman and John Danks. Also has some very good pitchers in there like Price. Anyway nice article but incomplete. Anyway it will be interesting to see how the Jays approach this in the offseason. If you buy into him and think its sustainable what would you do with him? Just a QO or try to get him for a 3 year contract or something?

My 2 cents is that Estrada is just pitching very well, especially when working with Navarro.

It's hard to sit on one pitch when a pitcher is relying on location and deception.

I agree that the question is silly for this year Richard. I don't think Buerhle will be in the mix. Although Hayhurst was saying today he thinks Estrada will be in the bullpen, but I think he is over optimistic about Buerhle returning to form. I think it matters more for what they do with Estrada in the offseason.

the "luck" thing just confuses the issue imo.

there's no doubt he's pitching well - i.e. he is hitting his spots, mixing it up well, and keeping them off balance - but the question is whether it's sustainable...which seems bighly unlikely to me.

even that interesting article just explains how some changes he has made are currently earning weaker contact...but that can be as much as surprising the hitter as anything else. their scouting book might just need to be updated.

but the point is with his stuff he's on a razor's edge. if he loses his release point at all, or gets tired or injured or for any other reason his location slips even a bit then he's in trouble.


and i have a bit of a problem with the narrative that this is some unprecedented new overhauled estrada - imo it really isn't. the guy has been very good at times before this year. until he wasn't.

"....I'm sure that half an inch makes as huge a difference as the author states...."

He cited more than a half-inch difference.  And he noted that it took a good catcher (Navarro) to help Estrada to exploit the changes that he has made over the past two years. He cited a range of factors.

"....If you buy into him and think its sustainable what would you do with him?...."

One more time: nobody is saying that every one of his 2015 statistics is "sustainable."  If we "buy into him," it doesn't mean that anyone predicts an identical result from him in 2016.  He could regress somewhat and still be a very useful pitcher.  You don't need to accept that he is a top-10 pitcher.  You only need to concede the possibility that he might have made some legitimate improvements this year -- a possibility that you stubbornly deny.

"....Just a QO or try to get him for a 3 year contract or something?...."

Neither.  You look at the team's pitching assets, you assess who is returning and who is available on the free-agent and trade markets, you see whether you can sign David Price, you do an estimate of Estrada's value to the Jays, and you offer him a contract at that value.  It might be a two-year contract.  But whatever you offer, you do hope that he might be slightly cheaper than a similar pitcher on the free-agent market, because Estrada knows and enjoys Toronto and has enjoyed the team's success and appreciates the team's coaches who helped him improve dramatically in 2015.  If you can acquire him at a slightly below-market rate, it's an opportunity that the Jays should exploit.  If on the other hand he is determined to be mercenary and extract the highest possible salary from the Yankees or Dodgers, you let him go.

I suspect The SP's will be sorted out in short order as follows. Price and Dickey are in. beurhle is in if healthy. Stroman is in if he can prove the rust is truly off. In these eventualities, Estrada goes to the pen as he is an experienced long reliever and a good backup if anyone is injured or falters.

If Beuhrle or Stroman don't make the grade, Estrada is in.

Yeah he cited that his curve was dropping more than ever before. I went and looked at Brooks Baseball for the numbers. 6.97 this year, 6.3ish last year, 6.5ish the year before. The year before that was a big drop difference. He was at mid 4s then. I feel the author is selectively choosing stats to play to a narrative.

Wouldn't think the Yankees are going be in the mix for Estrada with that short porch in right. Price would be more their target.

However this discussion started with our playoff rotation and right now Estrada seems a lock.

One thing to keep in mind with BABIP - teams that have low pitchers BABIP's are usually the teams with the best defences.

A "lucky" BABIP can be sustainable for the entire year as well, so while it may (will) regress for 2016, it may stay unsustainably low for the remainder of 2015, including the playoffs.