Pretty rough series pitching wise. I'd be very happy if we manage to take 2/3 against the Sox. Over the last six weeks they're the third best AL East team and we get two of their tougher pitchers in Porcello and Kelly and run out the bottom of our rotation. Hope Baltimore puts up a fight against the Yankees but I wouldn't bet on it.

Sorry make that second best. Their record is better than the Yankees in that time frame.

Liking these city-based TV references these days.

My first instinct on seeing the goalie photo was thinking Jay Thomas had maybe played Jim Craig in a movie? Maybe this was from the dreadful made-for-TV Miracle on Ice, perhaps showing where the players landed in the NHL?

But then I saw the sign on the boards and realized it was a Cheers reference, which makes more sense. (And having looked it up, it was Steve Guttenberg who played Jim Craig. Lucky for him the Stonecutters made him a star.)

Nice to come to a forum where everybody knows your name... or your internet handle, anyway.

Stroman is pitching against a league-bottom offence today in Pawtucket. It's a hot day, 88/31, so he may not make his ceiling of 85 pitches that they mentioned on the Bison broadcast. Stroman gave up 3 singles (no runs with a runner thrown out at the plate) in the first inning.

It's now 3-1 O's over the Yankees in the second inning, thanks to a three-run HR by Schoop. Keep it up, Baltimore.

Stroman looking like he's struggling today. Hope he can get some stronger innings in. Then again hard to know if he's being squeezed or not.

Stroman seems to be really struggling in the first couple of innings
today.  Some people have been counting their chickens before they are fully
hatched -- slotting him near the top of the Jays playoff rotation
without considering how much he still has to do to pitch at that level. 
Maybe he will still make it, but let's not automatically assume that
he's already the second-best pitcher in the entire Jays roster.

Every pitcher has bad outings, even aces. If Stromans process and his stuff are fine then I think he's a great option. However if he's not all the way back in health or doing something mechanically wrong than is what needs watching out for.

Stroman hasn't pitched professionally for 12 months.  It's obvious that he has a lot of rust.  No matter how miraculous his physical recovery, nothing can substitute for the experience of actually pitching at a high level.  He hasn't done that for 12 months, and it's unclear where he will do it after today, since the Buffalo season will be over.  Do you send him to Lansing for the playoffs?  What does that prove?  We know he can get Single-A hitters out.  Do you put him in the Jays bullpen and give him an occasional inning here and there?  How does that prepare him for a crucial high-pressure playoff start?  Maybe if the Jays clinch the division with a few games to spare, he can pitch in a meaningless major-league game, but nobody should count on that.  It's foolhardy to be slotting him into the playoff rotation without knowing if he's ready to pitch at that level.

Sure, but thankfully Hutchison has gone and opened the door for that. It's not like they have no time to make this decision. Plus seen too many times where a guy who wants to be in the majors kinda coasts through the minor league appearances but then when back in the majors looks like they found new life.

Anyway biggest concern I have with him right now is fastball velocity. From what I've been reading it's 91-93. That either means he's not throwing four seamers or his velocity is down a couple ticks, which would mean he's not in last seasons form and needs more ramp up time or even an offseason rest to return to normal.

Stroman is limited to 85 pitches today.  He'll reach that number without proving anything.  The Jays had been hoping that he might be able to pitch for them against the Yankees next weekend.  I don't see how you can possibly put Stroman into the rotation when he hasn't shown that he can get AAA hitters out.  Yes, today is only one game, and maybe he'll be much better next time out, but how can the Jays gamble on him?  I'd rather see Hutchison or Buehrle on regular rest, rather than bumping them aside to make room for a very unproven Stroman.

I am happy though that Dickey is in really good form right now. I think he's the clear number two of the major league staff. I am not very happy about the trio of Estrada, Buerhle, Hutch going forward (which is why I've been so hopeful for Stroman) but it might end up being that we have to roll the dice with those guys and hope for the best.

Yeah certainly agree that Stroman can't be played next weekend in Yankee stadium after this. Four walks and eight hits in 3ip can't be chocked up to bad luck. Just have to hope Beurhle can pitch a bit better there than he has in the past.

Buerhle is not fooling the Red Sox much today. Gibby better get the bullpen up soon.

Yup, which means right now we have three reliable starters. This is not filling me with confidence for this stretch run.

As crazy as this sounds Stroman still might be up, just because Buerhle and Hutchison are as big wild cards or more so than him now. Stroman was saying after the game that his body felt great and his stuff was really good, so we'll see I suppose if the Jays management agrees with him.

You pull your starter early because you think this is a winnable game - okay, makes sense.  Why not use one of your best relievers to get you out of the inning though?

Almost every left-handed hitter who singled grounded sharply up the middle, except for Ortiz of course who can usually me counted on for an extra-base hit vs Toronto. When I see repeated hits to that location from left-handers, it makes me question pitch location and the Buehrle/Martin battery.

Because Cecil/Hawkins pitch the seventh, Sanchez the eight and Osuna the ninth and it's clearly not either of those innings yet.

Loup has now faced 64 LHB this season. He hasn't walked a single one but has hit 5 of them. Loup is French for wolf, and the man has indeed been hunting. Or more precisely, he has been Ron Hunting.

Ron Hunt, 1971: 638 PA, 50 HBP
Loup against LHB, prorated: 640 PA, 50 HBP

Yeah I think you have to try pairing Buerhle with Navarro next time you run him out. Maybe it won't fix things, but I don't think it can hurt.

During the Joe Siddal innings I listen to Joe Costiglione. Get to hear 'Goings' at second and 'Pee-LAR' in center. Right now Joe C. is interviewing Warren Cromartie about baseball in Montreal.

"....Stroman was saying after the game that his body felt great and his stuff was really good..."

The guy is fanatically optimistic about everything.  That's one reason why he is so good -- he never gives up.  But it doesn't mean that we need to believe him every time he says something optimistic.  He might feel that his health and his stuff are great.  But spring training is 6 weeks, not 2 weeks, because pitchers have to get game-ready and get rid of the rust.  Pitchers usually need 5 or 6 pre-season games to get ready -- not a couple of sim games and a Lansing game and a Buffalo game.  They need to face live hitters in competitive situations to get their timing down and to sharpen their stuff.  Stroman keeps saying that he's been throwing a ball for 6 months, but it's not the same as live hitters in actual games.

Which is why i said if the Jays agree with him. It's possible to pitch well and get lit up. (Umpires as well can have a lot of influence with squeezing pitchers) The Jays will definitely have to consider a lot of factors in Stroman vs Buerhle and Hutch. Maybe Hutchison bounces back from his bad start to be good again on Wednesday, but I fear Buerhle is on his last legs.

Things might be dire enough in the back of the Jays starting rotation that Stroman even with this bad start is a better option. Also wonder if they could put together some bullpen reliever starts with this expanded forty this month if all three are unreliable going forward.

if stro feels good he'll be starting for us next weekend.

Looks like the Jays' lead will be 0.5 games after today's games. The Yankees are tenacious, and they have a scheduling advantage. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays in the WC game.

heheh doesn't take much for this fanbase to panic.

Don't strain yourselves too hard patting yourself on the back. As long as Stroman gets his pitches in, he'll be fine. He should be up anyway.

We must assume Buehrle should go on the D.L., but probably won't be put there. Any callups must account for the possibility that Buehrle's done. Besides Stroman, I'd call up the best Starter down there and two or three more Relievers. Add someone to play 1B/3B and that would might be enough.

If Buehrle's had an off-day instead, the callups still won't hurt. It's only money and just small monies at that.

Not sure how that post is read as "panic." I think a WC game would be an acceptable outcome for the Jays' regular season.

Everyone was saying that the Yankees weren't out of it because of all the hth games. I feel it's the opposite. The Yankees schedule down the stretch is so much easier (15 to 9 home games) that we need to win the hth series between us to stay ahead.

We must assume Buehrle should go on the D.L.

What's the point in September?

"....right now we have three reliable starters...."

Very few pitchers are fully "reliable" in the normal sense of that word.  Of the Jays starters, you could argue that only David Price is really reliable.  Everyone else has bad games -- a lot of them -- over the course of a season.

But the existing rotation is what got the Jays into first place. Why not stick with it?  Sure, some of them are going to have bad games from time to time, but it's a pretty good rotation, combined with an excellent bullpen and an excellent offense.  No need to be panicking.  No need to be benching pitchers if the alternative isn't better.

I hope Stroman is eventually a better choice than Hutchison, but if he isn't ready for a while, that's not the end of the world.

"I don't see how you can possibly put Stroman into the rotation"

"Stroman can't be played next weekend in Yankee stadium after this."

"right now we have three reliable starters"

"As crazy as this sounds Stroman still might be up"

"Things might be dire enough in the back of the Jays starting rotation"

"Looks like the Jays' lead will be 0.5 games after today's games. The Yankees are tenacious, and they have a scheduling advantage. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays in the WC game."

"We must assume Buehrle should go on the D.L."

. .

It's not a pretty good rotation. If you examine stats like FIP and SIERRA it's Price plus a bunch of poor pitchers, although Dickey with his knuckleball and Dickey effect is better than those stats would say. But this is getting back into discussion from the last thread. I'd feel very nervous if we rode our top four into the playoffs. Pitching will shut down offenses, even ones as good as ours. But Buerhle and Hutchison won't shut down much of anyone, and Dickey like any knuckleballer is capable of throwing batting practice for an inning. I guess that's why I've been putting so much hope into Stroman. Without him I don't think our pitching is good enough to win a World Series.

Although it could be worse and we could have bought an Edsel like Cueto for prospects. We do have a guy as capable of dominating as anyone out there. I just desperately hope we have a second.

"Looks like the Jays' lead will be 0.5 games after today's games. The Yankees are tenacious, and they have a scheduling advantage. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays in the WC game."

For the reason mentioned above, I still don't see how this is a "panic" post.

"The Yankees schedule down the stretch is so much easier"

after today, the yanks have 13 home 9 road games. jays have 9 home 12 road. advantage yanks.

in terms of opponents, the difference between the 2 is a) jays play a 2nd set against BOS while the yanks play the chisox - 2 teams with bad records but who have been hot, and b) jays play a series against the terribad ice cold braves while the yanks play against the very good red hot mets. advantage jays.

Kasi if you're going to say that FIP and SIERA are all that matters than you can't dismiss hutch as bad. if you want to dismiss hutch then you are admitting fip and siera aren't near sufficient.

not to mention even the creators of those stats wouldn't use them for Dickey. and hey the yanks' apparent ACE has a worse era than Dickey. imagine that.


and anyways, since the all star break, the jays' rotation has the 4th best era- and 4th best fip- in all baseball.

I actually agree with you on the first. I think Hutch is one of our four best pitchers, but he's had some pretty brutal luck this year. But he does have a propensity for bad innings. Anyway just gotta hope that Dickey and Estrada keep things going and that one of the other three steps up.

Yankees btw have 14 home games left after today.

"Anyway just gotta hope that Dickey and Estrada keep things going and that one of the other three steps up."

what does this even mean?

Each Starter should have, if healthy, five more Starts to make. Right now, David Price and R.A. Dickey are fine, as they are giving us what we expect. Drew Hutchison is in his head again (nothing else explains his results), but should give 3-5 usable (but not necessarily good) Starts. And strangely enough, that's fine.

Marco Estrada is pitching very well. I don't know how much longer he will pitch that well, because innings limits are different for everyone. Some Pitchers show little effect and stay pitching well. Mark Buehrle is possibly hurt. How much? Only Mark really knows for sure what hurts. I'm not going to assume both Starters finish the season pitching well. No one else should either. Call it panicking, call it anything you want. This is the last time you can call anyone up. Not doing so will be unwise.

Possible options/alternatives are limited, few to none. Only Marcus Stroman and Jeff Francis are Starters - are they good enough? Making up a regular Start using Relievers sounds ugly. Of the 5th Starters used to cover for the Sanchez injury, only Scott Copeland is still with the Team. Until you provide contingencies, you're just pissing into the wind.

Not sure why that's confusing uglyone. I hope that Dickey and Estrada keeps outperforming their peripherals and one of Hutchison, Buerhle or Stroman steps up and performs well in the next month. (I'm expecting Price to keep cruising along) We'll need that to win this division.

Winning the Wild Card would mean Price pitch the Wild Card game and only pitches once in the next series or possible ineffectively on short rest. That wouldn't be an easy game either.

Stroman, Hague and Steve Delabar called up. Delabar might have received a call-up because of the struggles of some of his Bison mates.

If Stroman is available to throw a couple of innings in the next blowout, he'll be able to say "mission accomplished".

The wild card game could be very well be a bullpen game, depending on who's the second wild card team.
That's next month.

The important thing now is to hold on to the lead until the series in the Bronx.

"....if stro feels good he'll be starting for us next weekend...."

If Stroman is chosen to start against the Yankees, it's purely because Buehrle seems to be imploding with a mysterious "dead arm" problem that won't go away.

Otherwise why would you give a crucial start to a pitcher whose last appearance was a 3-inning disaster against a Triple-A team, a game in which he threw only 46 of 81 pitches for strikes?   If he's having trouble finding the plate, it doesn't matter if he "feels great" or "has great stuff."  

If Buehrle has a nagging injury, which appears to be the case, then the Jays probably have no choice -- Stroman is the only option left.  It's better than giving the start to Hendriks or Francis or Copeland.  But it would definitely be a big gamble.

Depends on why he had trouble throwing strikes. Could be he was being squeezed by the ump. I am guessing we'll find out soon enough what role the Jays want to put him in.

Looks like the Yankees are going to miss Archer in their next series against TB and will miss Syndergaard and Harvey against the Mets. The Jays, however, will face Teheran and Miller against Atlanta. Them's the breaks.

It's remarkable how easy their schedule is from here on out. We need to go 3-1 this weekend I think.

Makes sense to bring Delabar up. He's been decent. He'll probably be in the pen next year at some point.

It's better than giving the start to Hendriks or Francis or Copeland.

It would be "and" not "or".

You start Francis but only let him go throw the rotation once. Then you bring Hendriks and see if they switch their hitters. If they do you trow Cecil in for an inning, etc... A bunch of guys with ERA in the 3s should be able to keep the game close.

I don't think Copeland got a call.

"Not sure why that's confusing uglyone. I hope that Dickey and Estrada keeps outperforming their peripherals and one of Hutchison, Buerhle or Stroman steps up and performs well in the next month. (I'm expecting Price to keep cruising along) We'll need that to win this division."

it's just confusing that you'd use the word "hope" to describe one of the best starting staffs in baseball since they got Price, and who are now getting their young ace back from injury too.

"If Stroman is chosen to start against the Yankees, it's purely because Buehrle seems to be imploding with a mysterious "dead arm" problem that won't go away.

Otherwise why would you give a crucial start to a pitcher whose last appearance was a 3-inning disaster against a Triple-A team, a game in which he threw only 46 of 81 pitches for strikes?"

because he's an amazing pitcher who doesn't need control of all the 6 pitches he was trying to use today to be great? that giving up a bunch of singles while striking out 5 in 3ip is not a disaster of a rehab start?

stroman is awesome. the only reason to keep him out is injury.

"It's remarkable how easy their schedule is from here on out. We need to go 3-1 this weekend I think."

Remaining Strength of Schedule as of 5am this morning:

NYY: 52% (6th mlb)
TOR: 50% (19th mlb)

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mlb/americansosrg.html

Eovaldi is being shut down for a couple of weeks with elbow inflammation. The Yankees are now down Sabathia, Teixeira, and Eovaldi, making their battle a bit more of an uphill one.

Well that staff looks a bit different now that Buerhle is struggling/injured and we don't know what we will be getting from Hutch.

Also on the SoS, most of the difference is home/away (14 home games for them, only 9 for us) and how the pitching match ups line up. Them missing 2/3 of the Mets best pitchers, us getting Atlanta's best, them missing Archer, etc. The big one is home/away. They have 5 more home games than we do.

Also on that awesome second half staff 70% of the value (by fwar) is from two guys, Price and Dickey, which is why I've been pushing for Stroman to be given a chance.

Why does this discussion remind me of this scene from Bull Durham?

"Well that staff looks a bit different now that Buerhle is struggling/injured and we don't know what we will be getting from Hutch. "

yes when you say the hot guys will cool and the cold guys will stay cold (aka panic), then yeah things won't look so hot.

"....stroman is awesome. the only reason to keep him out is injury...."

If it was as simple and easy as you suggest, the Jays would already have announced Stroman as their pitcher for Saturday's game in Yankee Stadium, especially since Buehrle is struggling so badly.  It would certainly be a slam-dunk if Stroman has already recovered to the awesomeness of last season.  Instead the Jays are hesitating, and all the coverage from the Jays beat reporters tonight is suggesting that Jays are in a dilemma without a clear solution.  Maybe they'll eventually go with Stroman, but it's not as obvious as you make it seem.  Even the most awesome pitchers in the world can need more than a brief two-game tuneup after a 12-month layoff.

Giving up 4 walks and 8 hits in 3 innings doesn't exactly scream "ready" to me.  But the Jays might have little choice, given Buehrle's situation.

Last 30 days:

Price: 6gs, 7.1ip/gs, 2.34era, 2.24fip, 3.14xfip, 3.05siera
Tanaka: 5gs, 6.9ip/gs, 3.41era, 4.01fip, 3.39xfip, 3.49siera

Hutch: 4gs, 6.4ip/gs, 3.51era, 4.19fip, 3.70xfip, 3.54siera
Eovaldi: 5gs, 6.1ip/gs, 4.40era, 2.46fip, 3.36xfip, 3.65siera

Dickey: 5gs, 6.3ip/gs, 4.83era, 4.25fip, 4.40xfip, 4.44siera
Pineda: 3gs, 5.4ip/gs, 5.51era, 4.00fip, 3.57xfip, 3.28siera

Estrada: 6gs, 6.0ip/gs, 2.50era, 5.53fip, 5.43xfip, 5.10siera
Sabathia: 3gs, 5.1ip/gs, 4.70era, 5.55fip, 5.47xfip, 5.89siera

Buehrle: 5gs, 5.3ip/gs, 5.81era, 4.51fip, 4.63xfip, 5.22siera
Nova: 6gs, 5.6ip/gs, 6.21era, 5.15fip, 4.73xfip, 4.71siera

Stroman: ---
Severino: 5gs, 6.1ip/gs, 2.08era, 4.13fip, 4.09xfip, 4.30siera

"I am happy though that Dickey is in really good form right now. I think he's the clear number two of the major league staff."

From your prior post on the other thread: "Our rotation right now is a number 1 and 4 4s/5s."

I take it since you changed your idea of Dickey as being one of the #4s, that after his latest outing that he warranted a jump to a clear #2 starter? Let's not over do it with these game to game and series to series swings, even though there are less of each left.

The fact is that there is still a decent amount of baseball left. The 7 remaining games between the Blue Jays and Yankees will likely decide in no small way which will one get the division and which one is destined for the wild card.

 

I think, assuming there is no more news or secret info about health, that you tag team it.

You start Buehrle but give him a short outing. Say only about 2-4 innings/1-2 times through the batting order. Then you bring in Stroman for 1-2 times through the batting order.

You get the benefit of few innings on each of them for light work load. You get the benefit of Stroman pitching. And you screw up the Yankees a little with the switch from soft lefty to hard righty in the same game.

Thank you, uglyone, for being a voice of reason amidst the panic.

Didn't see it when scrolling through, but Eovaldi now gone for a couple of weeks (which sounds like best case scenario).  That will help.

The first half still happened cruzin. I think dickey is the second best pitcher on this staff. And in my posts I did state you can argue Dickey is a number three because of the effect he has for following games and that FIP doesn't fully represent his numbers. But he is certainly not what anyone would call a number 2 starter at this point in his career. I do think he's our second best starter, but that's not the same thing. Anyway it's going to be a tough battle the rest of the way given the schedules. Eovaldi going down helps, but yeah the hth games will likely decide this.

The LH SP that got away:

Randy Wolf: 22 IP, 6.55 ERA
Daniel Norris: 45 IP, 4.43 ERA
Matt Boyd: 38 IP, 8.36 ERA
Felix Doubront: 53 IP, 4.22 ERA
Johan Santana: [crickets]

John Lott's latest report on Stroman and Buehrle:

Immediately after the game, manager John Gibbons said he and Anthopoulos will meet to discuss how and when to use Buehrle and Stroman. But given the GM’s public avowals, it would follow that the Jays will delay Buehrle’s next outing to allow Stroman to make his season debut against the Yankees on Saturday.  That would likely put Buehrle’s next start in Atlanta on the following Tuesday.  On the other hand, this kind of baseball decision is often based on the latest evidence. Monday’s starts may prompt the Jays to change their minds about starting Stroman right away. He could go to the bullpen. He might even go back to Class A Lansing for a start in the Midwest League playoffs, Anthopoulos told the New York Times on Monday, although there is no guarantee Lansing will still be in the playoffs by the time Stroman’s turn rolls around. Expect a decision sometime on Tuesday.

This has been fun to follow hasn't it? Beats wondering which kid from AAA will get a few innings this September, or which AAAA slugger might make an impact and try to earn a job next year.

Other players that got away...
Noah Syndergaard: 3.31 ERA 20 starts 3.39 FIP 1.7 bWAR
Travis d'Arnaud: 150 OPS+ in 194 PA, 1.9 bWAR

So looking at that would they be better in 2015 than Dickey/Thole? 1.8 bWAR/-0.3 bWAR? WAR suggests yes. My only fear would've been that it would've meant no Martin this year as the Jays would've felt safe behind the plate (2.5 bWAR) with d'Arnaud who missed a lot of time which would've been Navarro time probably.

Jevant, CTRL + F is your best friend when scrolling through quickly.

Mr. YouNeverKnow has passed away.

Joaquin! He was one of a kind, and a helluva pitcher for a while there. Vaya con dios.

Which scene? You've included one of the famous Box Links to Nowhere.

Sorry, Magpie.  It was the famous scene, "Cliches", where Davis gives a crash course (sorry!) on dealing with the media to Nuke Laloosh (and at the end reminds him how important it is to not mess with a streak, even if means resisting the charms of Annie Savoy),  The first cliche is, of course, "I'm just going to take it one game at a time".  It might be a pat answer, but there is truth in it too. 

Cliches.

Mark Buehrle's 83mph fastball makes me nervous.

They should recall Marcus Stroman from the D.L. He could give an inning in Tomorrow's game and still Start the game on the 12th. With the off-day Monday, decisions/changes could be made with the Rotation if necessary. Regardless as to whether it's the right decision, it's the only correct decision possible. You need to get Stroman going right or call Scott Copeland up.

I would then tell Mark Buehrle I don't want him pitch at all then next 10 days. He would then have four days after to get ready for his next start. Then we evaluate what happens next. You need as many Starters as possible capable of Pitching to be ready now or as soon as possible. You can't be in the Postseason if your Starters can't get you there.

Just this year, pubster, or the last two as well?   His swinging strike rate is down, but it seems to have nothing to do with velocity.

The problem with Buehrle is that he is intended to be a 13-win pitcher. No more, no less. It says so right on the box. They've pushed him beyond manufacturer's specifications.

It's too bad that Stroman struggled in Buffalo, but it was probably unrealistic to expect him to step right in and become David Price II. Baseball just isn't that easy.

I must confess that I find it difficult not to panic when the Jays lose a game in the standings. But you can't blame Jays fans for assuming the worst: we have suffered much over these last 22 years, and our optimism tanks are fully dried up.

Colabello at first base and Pennington at second base tonight against the lefty Owens. 

The problem with Buehrle is that he is intended to be a 13-win pitcher. No more, no less. It says so right on the box. They've pushed him beyond manufacturer's specifications.

Is this fWAR or bWAR?

Sportsnet has Stroman Saturday vs New York.

Here's the link to Arden Zwelling's article on the Stroman news.

Mike - Last 2 years as well.

I think he started his Blue Jays career with the Jays slowly. (Just checked and his era after his first 7 Blue Jays starts was 7.02).

At that point I thought he was done.

In prior years I always liked it when the Jays faced him (as a member of the CHW), but I have to admit he has proved me wrong more often than not.

After 28 starts his ERA was down to 3.92.

Buehrle is headed back to Toronto to get a cortisone shot in his shoulder. Still avoids the DL but the 200 inning streak looks to be in jeopardy.

Not like they had much choice with Buerhle's shoulder being what it is, but glad they made this decision.

Serendipity or Panic? I'll let you know after he's finished with the Evil Empire or the Evil Empire is finished with him.

It's late in the year, the starters have been pulled through a hedge backwards for six months (counting Spring) and now they're hurting, near the end of their tether, kaput or just exhausted. I'm exhausted and I haven't pitched an inning yet.

Clearly, playing a guy who's been injured for 6 months, after 6 or so innings in the minors - to get the rust off - reeks of desperation. If it works it will, of course, be inspiration. When you're all in you throw as many dice as you have at the wall and hope not too many them shatter. However, nothing ventured nothing gained, in for a penny... you get the idea.

A healthy Stroman, the REAL Stroman plus Price gives us an 80% chance of going all the way. It would be a serious mistake not to see what Stroman has in the tank.

Roll them dice Gibby - death or glory!

I'd be super happy if he could go 6ip, 2 er or less. I'd be mostly happy if he can give us 5 innings and be competitive.

forget the 200ip. isn't this the first time he's ever missed a start?

" and now they're hurting, near the end of their tether, kaput or just exhaus"

this applies to buehrle and .....?

the best team in baseball, and the hottest team in baseball, is now DESPERATELY getting their perfectly healthy young ace back for the stretch run.

you guys are funny.

"Is this fWAR or bWAR?"

if the latter stands for buckWAR then that one.

When you're all in you throw as many dice as you have at the wall and hope not too many them shatter.

Where are you buying your dice? Waterford?

Doesn't matter that we're the best team in baseball. We can't get back wins from earlier in the year when we should have been 10 games over .500, not just .500. What we do have is a dead heat with a team that has 54% of their games at home compared to 36%. (5 more home games) That's a significant difference. I think most of us think that it's pretty important that the Jays win the division to not be forced in through the wild card game.

Buehrle is headed back to Toronto to get a cortisone shot in his shoulder.

And not for the first time. The reports are saying he's had cortisone shots - plural - in his shoulder already this season without missing a start.

I'd be very, very interested to know exactly when.

Incidentally, Buehrle has missed one start during his career. It was late September 2007, the Sox were out of it, John Danks had just come off the DL, Ozzie wanted to give him a look, so he skipped Buehrle's turn.

why the obsession with home and road games?

since the deadline, jays are 16-5 (.761) at home, 9-3 (.750) on the road. while the yanks are 10-10 (.500) at home and 9-5 (.643) on the road.

quality of competition is much more significant than home/road.

54% seems fairly significant to me. I'd rather look at sample size of the history of baseball rather than a 30 game sample. Not to mention as others have pointed out, the numbers on that SoS miss some things. We get Shelby Miller (who NY missed), NY misses Archer in their last series while we get him twice. NY misses both Harvey and Syndergarrd. I don't think we have the advance in schedule for opponents going forward. We have to be the better team going forward to win this division given the schedule disadvantage we have.

The Jays offense is one of the very best in Baseball. As long as they swing at their pitches and not the opposing Pitcher's, they will crush everyone. If they push, it gets harder to win, but they still win.

Most nights the Bullpen is exceptional, or at least very good. On other nights they are merely good, and that doesn't always cut it at this time of year. I don't see that changing anytime soon or this year.

This Team will only go as far as it's Starting Pitching will take it. Just 25 games remain and with just 12 wins the Jays will have 90 wins and an easy Postseason Berth. With less, it gets interesting. With more, they will contend for the Division Title, taking it from New York. With who they have pitching the games, I see at least 12 wins to as many as 15 wins, depending on who they win them against.

Be Happy People, you are watching some of the very best Baseball there is.

kasi we don't even know the pitching matchups further than this weekend.

and, again, quality of competition is far more important than home road splits.

This pitcher's ears are freaking me out.

my biggest issue with Dickey.....Thole has to hit.

At least no one is panicking about Dickey being toast anymore (sorry uglyone, couldn't resist).

never apologize for funny!

You know what this game needs? More double plays.

A-Rod HR ties it at 1-1. Imitation is the sincerest form of Flaherty.

[Groans]

ok NOW apologize.

hey smoak is a nice DP candidate. can we get a 7th?

I haven't looked this up but I would be willing to bet that Revere hits LHP better than Smoak.

babip having some fun with us this series.

smoak is actually crushing lhp this year (200wrc+).

his career mark is poor (86wrc+) butthat includes a crazy home road splits of 58 to 115....and that home mark has been blamed by some on the uncomfy confines of that park in Seattle.

revere has a similar career mark (90wrc+) but has been struggling against them this year (67).

Good call by Gibby going to the bullpen. Very nice job by Cecil in the 7th. Let's win this one.

Need Rockies vintage Tulo here.

Looks like we got the Blue Jays vintage Tulo instead.

I think Tulo will heat up.

The Jays seem a bit over-anxious at the plate tonight. Trying to force the issue.

damn you, babip, damn you.

This game is a bit ridiculous.

Helluva job by Cecil.

goins will hit for pennington.

wonder who hits for carrera? hague? navarro? Pompey?

I for one was unimpressed with the strategic choices in the top of the 7th. Letting Pennington hit for himself vs. a RHP while leading off was, to me, an obvious mistake, and I also didn't agree with downgrading defensively from Revere to Carrera in order to have Smoak hit from the right side with a slow runner on first and one out.

More Pennington to lead off!!!

Bringing on a left-hander to face Pennington is weird.

Chris Davis HR #41. O's now up 2-1 in the 9th.

or don't pinch hit for either of them.

chances yankees don't come back in the bottom of the 9th?

40% chance Yanks score in B9.

damn skippy, russ.

Hooboy Martin. Good perseverence by Sanchez, too.

Hell of a game. September baseball!

darn tootin', cola!

yankees lose.

Ballgame. Yanks lose!

Britton is aces and the O's win.  Breathe out.

MEAT hitting against the soft underbelly of their shoddy bullpen.

now or never, boys.

HA! a fenway BS HR goes OUR way. first for everything i guess.

Additional runs, please.

what in the ****.

Yankee fans in the review booth, I guess.

Get a pitch to hit, Jose.

Tulo needs to have a quality PA here. No hacking.

Pompey could steal third here.

finally a hard hit ball finds a hole in the infield.

solid game for tulo. both ways.

edit: and another gets through!

There's an edit  button?

A game's worth of luck all in one inning.

All the crappy luck the first two games correcting itself in one inning.

I'm pretty comfortable with Cecil, Sanchez and osuna at the back end of this

Balk, wild pitch, intentional walks, aren't exactly luck though.

Yup, a few feet either way and Tulo might have hit into an inning-ending DP with no runs scored. Instead the Jays cash four.

Wonderful job by the pitching staff today. Solid defense, too.

Wasn't pretty but it will do.

woot.

now please bash their heads in tommorrow and crush their souls.

my favorite part of this year may be hearing Fenway and Yankee Stadium echoing with Jays chants.

what a beautiful thing.

Wow, this seemed like a game the Jays were destined to lose with all the runners stranded. Super job by the pitchers tonight, and we pick up a game on the Yankees !

This is a fun year. Jays fighting Yankees for 1st in the East makes me think about 1985, except this team has a few more who might disappear post season (Price, Buehrle, Estrada the big ones...'85 had Dh's Oliver & Burroughs left, but that is it for visible losses that year and Cecil Fielder was there to take over, sadly Jimy Williams used Johnson over Fielder in '86 and just couldn't ever figure out Fielder couldn't field).

Also 1985 won 99 games with no one having 100 RBI (Donaldson already there, Bautista & EE both close), no one had 30 HR (same 3 all have it already), no 15+ save guys - Osuna has more saves now than Henke did in '85 at 16 and could get to 20 easily.

Great game by Dickey and terrific work from the pen (especially Cecil). Plus another game with solid defensive play. Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the 3rd highest run-scoring team in MLB, behind only the Jays and Yankees, is Boston.

Speedster Bautista swiped 2 bases in the same game for the 1st time since June 2013 .

Cecil has been throwing more fastballs as the season wears on.  On the whole, he has thrown 40% fastballs up from 23% in years past.  The almost even fastball-curveball mix is, I think, perfect.

Hendriks (age 26), Francis (age 34), Copeland (age 27)

Would the 3 game series at the Braves give the Jays a window to test the three arms in rotation? The Yankees will be facing the Rays. Both the Rays and the Braves are out of postseason picture anyway; let the Jays save their better starters for divisional rivalries. For Estrada (age 32), Hendriks and Copeland, will they still young enough to develop hitting and bunting as pitchers, against the Braves ? Francis will be saved for one start hosting either the Red Sox or the Rays; I am inclined to start Francis against the Rays as the Red Sox houses young athletic hitters who are bodily probable to leg out more runs after weaker Jays' pitching.

So, the pitching lineup goes Hutchison today in Fenway, followed by Price, Estrada, Stroman and Dickey in Yankee Stadium.  It works out perfectly that Goins got a day off yesterday; I suspect that his bat is going to be important in the next 5 days (and who would have thought that at the start of the season).

Can someone who knows what we can expect today give us a scouting report on Joe Kelly? It's hard to get and accurate read from stats and game logs. Boston's never had a problem hitting this season, just getting started hitting is the issue. I don't know where Drew Hutchison's head is when he pitches. His stuff is good enough as is his control, if he doesn't try to overthrow. I firmly believe his problem is mental. He just needs to figure out who he is and be that person to consistently win 20.

Kelly throws hard but very straight, with middling control and inconsistent breaking stuff. he's been a consistently below average SP in terms of underlying numbers, hae an unluckily bad era early in the year and a luckily good era the past month or so

Going to be a fun and fascinating few weeks, with some tough decisions about the playoff roster ahead.  If you figure 12 pitchers, guys like Schultz and Loup are clearly on the bubble, but so is Hutch if the braintrust doesn't think he can be effective out of the pen - might be a good idea to try him out in the final days unless he is still in the running for a playoff start.  Dude has had exactly 2 pro relief appearances.  Very hard to imagine a moderately conservative management team like we have not starting Buehrle.  Clearly the plan is Stroman, but what if he struggles? 

Estrada likely heads to the pen no matter what - he's established as a legit relief option and could be a quality long man if there's a quick playoff hook for a starter like Buehrle or Stroman.  

Even Latroy Hawkins might be on the bubble, magical veteran-ness aside.  He's been quite hittable as a Jay. 

If you look at the Post Season Schedule, you'll notice the Jays will need four Starters as much as they need three. If they get really hot in the Playoffs, it might not matter that much who our Number Four is. Otherwise, it matters. They won't however, need five, unless someone gets hurt. The Sixth Starter, unless being a really good Reliever is unnecessary.

The Jays will absolutely need three Top Relievers to finish games, and they will work a lot. A fourth Top Reliever would be an assets, but unnecessary. Two quality Relievers for 2-4, maybe 5 innings of work are needed.

And that's it, just ten Pitchers are really needed, but the very best ten they have.

A third Catcher is a necessity, because of the possibility of injury (Martin?). The Jays can't bring up anyone during a series, just before or after a series. The Bench needs more help than the Bullpen, everyone who might go down must have a Replacement, a very good one, not just someone who can play the position.

That's why Post Season decisions are so very difficult, zero margin for error.

The Jays can't bring up anyone during a series, just before or after a series.

Sort of.  You can replace a player injured in a series, but the player you are removing is ineligible for both the remainder of the series AND the next one.  I don't think they'll take 3 catchers.  If you need one due to injury, you probably just replace him at that point.

My guess:

Playoff starting rotation (provided health and Stroman not imploding): Price, Stroman, Dickey, Buerhle (in some order)
Playoff bullpen (same health caveat): Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Lowe, Hawkins, Hendriks, Estrada. 

I can't really see them leaving Hawkins off.  I do think they'd like an extra LHP, so I wouldn't be shocked if Loup was there in favour of...Hendriks, maybe?  Unless they go to an 8 man pen, in which case Loup would be the next man added, I think.

...Sort of. You can replace a player injured in a series, but the player you are removing is ineligible for both the remainder of the series AND the next one. I don't think they'll take 3 catchers. If you need one due to injury, you probably just replace him at that point.

When did this change happen? You can have almost a different Team in the World Series because you designate your Roster for the Series just before. The other series were, "You are stuck with what you take. No in-series substitutions." So when did that change?

As the other thread showed, Dickey has done well with Martin, it just wore Martin down a lot. I'm pretty sure Thole will not be on the playoff roster.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/109921/full-primer-on-playoff-roster-eligibility

I can't find when the change happened, but the URL above contains MLB's rule 40. Rule 40(a)(4) specifically.

Colabello gets the start against the right-hander Kelly today, his second in a row.  I'll guess that the fact that the game is in Fenway has something to do with it.

LaTroy Hawkins seems to be a bend but not break pitcher, with 17 hits and 3 walks in 12 innings but only 2 earned runs against. His experience will probably gain him a spot on the playoff roster.

LaTroy Hawkins seems to be a...

Can't really judge a man much based on just 12 innings. But if you did, you'd probably want to dismiss the .405 BABIP as flukish and focus instead on the TTO indicators, which have all been very good: 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR.

Hutchison has started 3 times against Boston this season, and in 11.1 IP (first warning sign!), he's allowed 25 H, 9 BB, and 15 runs, all earned. That's an 11.91 ERA, if you don't want to do the math. The Red Sox slash line is .431/.500/.690, which isn't something I don't even have any real frame of reference for, alas.

Of course, the Jays have won all three of those games...

Can't really judge a man much based on just 12 innings.

Agreed, but he wasn't lights-out in Colorado either, this season or last.  He looks to be what he's always been - a consistently solid mid reliever.  But at 42, I get nervous and wonder if a Bo Schultz isn't perhaps a better option.

That said, Hawkins hasn't really lost any velocity over the past few years, which is darned impressive. 

Can't really judge a man much based on just 12 innings. Especially not a guy with over 1463 innings over 21 uninterrupted years.

Hopefully the leash is shorter today, with Price going tomorrow, Gibby should have somebody warmed up every inning.

Hawkins w/TOR: 12.1ip, 1.46era, 2.09fip, 3.27xfip, 3.08siera
Hawkins w/COL: 22.1ip, 3.63era, 3.64fip, 3.07xfip, 2.74siera

I think he makes the cut.

Well I think Hutch is done. Without an effective slider he's not capable of pitching against good offenses. Hope he figures it out in the offseason but I think I'd rather them run Francis out at this point.

It would help if the strike zone was, um, consistent.

Hutchison has thrown 71 pitches and probably should be removed now.

Enough pitches and too many homeruns. I'd keep him in only if the Jays tie in the 4th...

Yeah that pitch to Ortiz was pure batting practice ball.

Hutch wasn't looking great, but he wasn't terrible. I think he may just be wondering what the hell he has to do to get some respect. I think getting sent down rattled him a little, even if it was for reasons other than his performance in the starts immediately preceding the move. I honestly wonder if Stroman's presence on the bench on the weekend may have made him feel like he had no slack on the line, too. And today - having given up a HR that would have been a deep fly-out everywhere else on the planet and a single, he's getting the Pete Walk(er) to the mound. At which point he completely loses his shit. I don't know...I hope he can bounce back, but I wonder if he isn't the son of Josh Towers.

Keith Law was on 1050 talking about him today. The main thing from his success last year is he lost his slider, which second half was so devastating. Not he just has his straightish fastball and his split change. Not many starters have success with two pitches. I think him sucking lately has more to do with him facing better offenses than anything. You can groove pitches to poor teams, but Baltimore and Boston have enough talent to make you pay.

"....Well I think Hutch is done....."

The kid is barely 25 and has already pitched 390 innings in the majors, and yet you've pronounced his career to be dead.  Incredible.  Such sweeping edicts.  No room for nuance, the possibility of improvement, or anything from the real-world experiences that we see all the time in baseball.  You'd think your own past history of errors would remind you that black-and-white pronouncements are usually wrong.

Edwin Encarnacion looks uncomfortable at first base, maybe tweaked something.

A third Catcher is a necessity, because of the possibility of injury (Martin?). The Jays can't bring up anyone during a series, just before or after a series. The Bench needs more help than the Bullpen, everyone who might go down must have a Replacement, a very good one, not just someone who can play the position.
Sort of.  You can replace a player injured in a series, but the player you are removing is ineligible for both the remainder of the series AND the next one.  I don't think they'll take 3 catchers.  If you need one due to injury, you probably just replace him at that point.

Judging between Kottaras and Thole for the third catcher role, I suggest Kottaras. Does he outperform Thole in hitting for power and drawing walks while both can catch knuckleballer ? The 40-men roster is full, though.

Not his career, just this season. You did forgot to leave out the part where I said in the offseason if he could recover his slider. I wasn't the one who said he was Romero. Maybe you should direct your post to there.

So Hutchison pitches well in a 3-1 win in New York. He's sent down because of all the off-days, but in the 12 days he's away from the Team he pitches once. He doesn't get through five and sucks while doing it.

Upon his return, he pitches well at Home in a 15-1 romp over Detroit. In his next start at home vs Baltimore he stunk. I don't think we got good Hutchison. Boston has good offense, through getting it going is always a issue. Guess not a problem today.

Plus what history of errors? You mean the terrible error of repeating tweets from baseball writers who said player A would be included in a trade and he wasn't? The results of the trades is yet to be written. A wild card appearance is not something I'm willing to trade our future for, so for this season to be a success for me it needs to be an actual playoff series appearance, preferably a win. Yes I admit I'm a pessimist but 22 years of watching every team I root for come up short or lose the big game (since the last Jays series win) has done that to me. I don't live in Canada so it's hard to get swept up in the playoff fever down here in Texas where few root for them. So for me it's results or bust. The atmosphere doesn't matter to me 2500 miles from Canada.

Anyway back to Hutch. I think he has potential and will be in our rotation next year. But he needs his slider back, the pitch that made his breakout last year. It's been very poor this year and without it he's struggled. It is my belief that he won't get it back in the next month and we shouldn't keep throwing him to the wolves. I never said anything about his career being done and your response there was disingenuous.

Joe Kelly is Kelvim Escobar.

He's throwing the same number of sliders as always. They're just not as effective. I don't think it's even something he worries about. His game is to concentrate on commanding the fastball.

Kasi, when you say someone is "done", it has a normal meaning.  The normal meaning is:  finished, over, done.  Pushing up the daisies.  It doesn't mean "he should perhaps skip a few starts in the second half of September and maybe shouldn't be in the playoff rotation" which is what you're now saying.

In any event, I fully agree with what you're now saying, which is that he still has a chance to pull it together in the off-season.  He's too young to write off.  He's still at the age where many other pitchers are just beginning their major-league careers, yet he already has 390 major-league innings to build on and learn from.  It doesn't guarantee that he'll turn it around, but he has a chance to do so.

As for your comments before the trade deadline:  nobody tweeted that Prospect A would definitely be traded from the Jays.  Those were just names that were being floated on Twitter from rumors.  But you used those names to predict that the Jays wouldn't make the playoffs and to declare that Gibbons and Anthopoulos were selling the farm and should be fired.  I just wish for a tiny bit more nuance and perhaps allowing for the possibility of doubt or uncertainty.

By the way, it was interesting to see Baseball America's Ben Badler saying today that the Jays still have a "solid farm system" despite the trades.  I don't think the Jays have sold their future in order to make a run in 2015.

Also, you previously said that Anthopoulos and Gibbons should be fired if the Jays don't make the playoffs.  Now you're saying that the WC doesn't count.  Since when does the WC not qualify as the playoffs?   I realize that the Jays are now aiming for the division title since they have a good shot at it, and I'm all in favor of heightened ambitions, but that doesn't mean that a WC slot is a failure.

Nats-Mets game much more interesting.

I'm pretty sure Oakland viewed their trade deadline last year and their brief wild card game as a failure. Go to Athletics Nation and read their fans posts about losing Russell and how it wasn't worth it. They went for it, they failed, they're bitter about it and I don't think anyone there views it as a playoff appearance.

Wild card when it was a series appearance was one thing, with the one game playoff now it's very much something else. I'm glad they did it because it makes division titles much more important. But it's clearly inferior to winning the division.

I agree they didn't sell their future btw. There is still some good players there, but all years away now other than Pompey.

Baltimore with another late-inning rally. The O's now lead the Yankees 4-3 in the top of the 9th (one on, none out).

Good time for the junior varsity team, Mr. Gibbons. Pennington. Kawasaki. Pompey. Carrera. Navarro. Come on in boys.

Nats-Mets game much more interesting.

I've never been the world's biggest John Gibbons fan, but Matt Williams makes him look like John McGraw.

Close, Chuck.  MVP Hague in the game, too, with Cliff Pennington in left-field.

this comeback will be fun.

personally i don't think the slider is hutch's issue at all. imo it's entirely about his command. command was his calling card as a prospect and without it he'll struggle.

too early to pull the plug but yeah he might follow cecil's career path in the end.

"m pretty sure Oakland viewed their trade deadline last year and their brief wild card game as a failure. "

pretty sure they viewed all the deadlines they DIDN'T go for it as failures, too.

not sure there's many baseball people who think billy did the wrong thing last year.

Close, Chuck. MVP Hague in the game, too

40 lashes for me! Forgot all about Hague. Hope a certain somebody is watching.

I've never been the world's biggest John Gibbons fan, but Matt Williams makes him look like John McGraw.

Matt Williams might not last the season. Hell, he might not last the night.

Primo example of schadenfreude? Seeing Papelbon on the Nationals.

their brief wild card game

Whatever that game was, it was not brief.

Anyway, I think the real failures that trouble Oakland fans are: a) blowing the 4 game division lead in August, and b) blowing a 4 run lead in that very wild card game.

Finally some run support for Hutchison!

Primo example of schadenfreude? Seeing Papelbon on the Nationals.

And it's yummy good. The Nats have gone 19-22 since getting Papelbon, and they've gone from 1 game in front to 7 games in back. Drew Storen had 29 saves and a 1.73 ERA when he was bumped from the 9th inning to make room for Papelbon - Storen has allowed 15 runs in 18 IP since.

On the other hand, Bryce Harper may have overtaken Mike Trout as the best baseball player in the world. Two more HRs and a double tonight. They can't blame this on him.

I'd be curious if you polled Jays fans and asked them if they viewed losing in the wild card game as a playoff appearance. Anyway thankfully Baltimore came to play tonight and we aren't going to lose our 1.5 game lead,

i'd be curious if you polled jays fans and asked them if they preferred this year or last year.

I'm with ugly on Hutch. Hutch throws a lot of fastballs. They have to be on target.

What is Cecil's career path? Drop the slider for a cutter or move to the pen?

i'd be curious if you polled jays fans and asked them if they preferred this year or the last 20.

For us old timers the question is how do you rank the great years? I'm 1985 (first playoff ever), 1992 (first WS, and dang did it feel good), 2015 (if they make it), 1993 (seemed inevitable all year so a lot less tension than 1992), 1989 (coming from so far behind was fun), 1987 (painful end but dang what a team), 1991 (made playoffs but knocked out too quick), 1983 (first good team ever), 1984 (kept up with the Tigers at times but just not good enough), hard to add any years from 1994 to 2014 ... maybe 1998 when they did a charge in the 2nd half with Roger Clemens being the best pitcher on the planet 2 years running (little did we know he was about to go Yankee on us).

not sure there's many baseball people who think billy did the wrong thing last year.

Not sure who you think you speak for as 'baseball people'.

i'd be curious if you polled baseball people and asked them if they think billy did the wrong thing last year.

scott - meant the move to the pen

dean - not sure you'd find one baseball analyst who gave beane a bad mark last deadline

john - man that's tough. Bell falling to his knees to clinch in '85 is literally the first baseball memory ingrained in my recall. that's my childhood. and '87 is too painful to rank up there. but i think it has to be '92. the first run was pure joy. individual stars and great team equally. the dome was new and shiny. and given the previous 7yrs it felt completely deserved. 2nd one was great too but more stressful with the expectations, and somehow felt a little less authentic with mercs like winfield and cone coming in. it felt a little more evil empirish the 2nd time.

Terrible time to have two Starters collapse. Buehrle pitches 3.1 innings giving up two doubles to David Ortiz and seven more hits for basically five runs. Loup, Tepera, Hendriks and Francis all greatly underachieve. All the while the offense get beat by average at best, Rick Porcello. Yankees win so that costs them a game.

Game 2: 5-1 win. Our Starter remembers how to pitch and the offense almost forgets to hit verses lowly Henry Owens (23). Yankees lose so they gain a game.

Hutchison gets once through the lineup then coughs up four runs on two HR after TWO OUTS. That's the problem. The first piece of adversity and he falls apart. This is no longer about stuff. This is no longer about control. This is all in his head and until he solves that issue, good Hutchison is gone. Yankees lose again so that costs them a game. The Jays come in here leading by 1.5 games, win just one game and leave ahead by just 1.5 games, not the the 3.5 games they should lead.

dean - not sure you'd find one baseball analyst who gave beane a bad mark last deadline

I see. The question isn't whether it was a poor move by a GM who has been grossly over-rated for 15 years to trade the team's future and present for as close to nothing as nothing can get. The question is whether one ill-defined 'baseball analyst' would give him a bad mark for having done so. Sure. I will.

I wouldn't call this a huge endorsement.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lester-and-the-as-fascinating-big-bet-on-2014/

not a bad analysis by cameron. basically likes the idea, but iffy on the actual pieces involved.

fun part there is that his major criticisms of those moves - giving up a 3war player, giving up an elite prospect and only upgrading 2war in the rotation - don't apply to our moves this year.

I agree 100%. The moves Beane made were very confusing at the time, and I think a lot of analysts gave him the benefit of the doubt b/c they think he's some sort of evil genius.

Other than Price the moves the Jays made will help them in the future as well as now. Given the history of the Jays (Mapgie's famous 'record-after-100-games' table) the Price trade made a lot of sense for this franchise. I was/am all for it.

ugly, sorry, last night when we disagreed I was more aggressive than was either necessary or appropriate. My apologies.

Price vs. Severino in the first game of a four game meaningful series in September in Yankee Stadium.  This is what you wait for.

Severino has pronounced platoon splits so far. He's been devastating against RHB and ordinary against LHB.  It doesn't make much difference because the Jay lineup is set, save for Smoak and Colabello at first base.

With Buerhle hurt and Hutchison rocked last night, would Hendricks, Copeland, Francis get a chance in starting ? About MattVP Hague, could he play some 2nd base (cf. Danny Valencia), essentially replacing Pennington against a LHSP ?

Just caught up on the whole thread. Interesting discussions and I actually appreciated the aggressiveness between commenters (e.g. ComebyDean vs. Ugly, Kasi vs. China Fan) because to me it implies that people actually care about this franchise and its playoff positioning. Let alone the playoffs themselves. Playoffs!

Anyway, about Hutch, expectations were high and he has obviously not delivered. But let's not assume that he was ever pencilled in to be a front line starter. Perhaps due to his low draft slot in comparison, but he was never projected to be a Stroman-like ace (or cough, Romero, cough). Hutch most certainly needs the off-season to (re)gain his command and his slider because 2-pitch Koufax ain't walking through that door.

All this makes Stroman's start at Spankie stadium probably the most anticipated Blue Jays start since 1993, even more than Price's first, due to the uncertainty of it all. No pressure, kid!

No, and No.  Re: rotation - I assess the chances of Hendriks, Copeland and Francis getting any start this year (unless the Jays have clinched and cannot improve their playoff positioning in any fashion) at 0.01% (only if an injury occurs to the day's scheduled starter at like 6 PM the night of).  Re: Hague - do you actually think the Jays would all of a sudden drop Hague into a new position in the midst of a playoff race, after not calling on him all year?

From Sportsnet: "Drew Hutchison ERA in 2015 At Home: 2.91 On Road: 9.44 Difference: 6.53 (largest in MLB history since 1914)"

Hutch has been inconsistent this year and last. We all know that. Sure enough every month there have been some v good games. So far in Sept all (2) of his games have been bad. Maybe he is due for a good game or 2 to keep his inconsistent results consistent.

Re: Hague - do you actually think the Jays would all of a sudden drop Hague into a new position in the midst of a playoff race, after not calling on him all year?

C'mon man, you're not new here. You've heard ditties from this hymnal before.

C'mon man, you're not new here. You've heard ditties from this hymnal before.

I know.  Sometimes I just can't help myself.

Maybe he is due for a good game or 2 to keep his inconsistent results consistent.

Chaos theory, baby. There's an underlying order to everything, even Drew Hutchison. May need Timothy Leary to help sort this out, however.

I sometimes think bringing more senses to discussion is not only good but also sarcastic in disguise at occasions.

So Hutch should have a good game or two just to keep his inconsistent tendencies consistent. Sounds like something a politician would say (especially at this time speaking as someone neck deep into the election).

I don't see Gibbons doing much different right now beyond stuff like last night - mixing in all the callups when a blowout occurs if for no other reason than to get an eyeball on them to see when they might be useful.

Right now I'd say Carrera is his #1 backup OF, Pompey a pinch runner/defensive replacement, Kawasaki jack of all trades for the infield, Hague a guy who is in if no other option is available. Francis is the long man who might get into a pressure game at some point, Delabar he is losing confidence in, Shultz & Tepera are 6th inning guys, Loup he has some confidence vs LH still but he'll need a lot of good games before Gibbons feels safe in high end innings (I hope).

a GM who has been grossly over-rated for 15 years

Well, one thing about being over-rated for 15 years (of an 18 year GM tenure) - somebody thinks Billy Beane is doing something right!

John Northey, good luck in your campaign!  I'd vote for you - if I was anywhere near your riding. 

"ugly, sorry, last night when we disagreed I was more aggressive than was either necessary or appropriate. My apologies."

YOU"RE DAMN RIGHT YOU APOLOGIZE YOU.....


....oh i mean what? why are you apologizing? thanks for the thought please don't do that. i don't mind aggressive arguments. besides if you set this precedent i'll have to make an apology signature included in every post.

"....i don't mind aggressive arguments...."

Me neither.  I think most of us don't mind too much.  Apologies shouldn't be necessary.  As long as we're prepared to receive as much as we dish out when we argue (and as long as we try to provide evidence and data where possible), there shouldn't be too many limits or apologies.

On the other hand, this is why Robert Dudek calls us "vermin and trolls"....

Griff's 'farm system depleted' article at the star seems to be based on the number of players AA has traded during his tenure - nothing more.  So included in his 'evidence' are names like Nessy, Wells, Rasmussen, Cordero and Jeff freakin' Mathis. 

Of course, no mention of AA's drafts, IFAs, scouting, development ...

ChinaFan, where did you see Badler's comments on the Jays system?  I personally agree, we are middle of the pack with upside IMO. 

p.s. in addition to my firm "never listen to sports talk radio", i also recommend a "never read toronto dailies for baseball" policy.

I like John Lott's columns in the National Post, which I often link to here.

" I personally agree, we are middle of the pack with upside IMO."

Who's farm systems are worse than ours? I'm not saying we're the worst, what I am saying is I highly doubt any of us know nearly enough about other teams farm systems to make such a comment. I also highly doubt we are middle of the pack, I've only seen one ranking done after the trades and it placed us 26th.

Speaking of Rob Rasmussen, he's pitched 14 games so far for the Mariners. He's sported an ERA of 12.71 in 11.1 innings, with 21 hits and 7 walks allowed. And four wild pitches.

Naturally, he has a 2-1 W-L record.

I agree, John Lott is great.

Farm system tells only part of the story in relation to the medium term future of the organization.  You'd like to know also about players 25 and under who have a year or less of major league experience.  The Blue Jays have Pompey, Guerrero Jr. and Alford in the outfield, Travis and Tellez in the infield, Pentecost and Jansen behind the plate, and Sanchez, Osuna, Maese and Harris on the mound.  It is thin, but that's what happens when you go all-in. 

Jerjapan, here is the link to the Badler comments in his latest chat:  http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1441735443    (scroll halfway down)

But since it's a relatively brief comment, I'll just reproduce the entire question and answer here:

Mikeleelop (blue jays way): With the depleted farm system after the trade deadline, who can fans look forward to in Toronto? Guerrero, Greene...

Ben Badler: Even with all the trades, it's still a solid farm system in Toronto. Pompey is still technically a prospect, Alford is having a breakout year, Rowdy Tellez looks legit, plus you've got the 2015 draft picks, Vladdy Jr and some other intriguing guys throughout the system. There's still a lot to look forward to there.

Speaking of Rob Rasmussen

Some other blasts from the past:

• Brett Wallace is OPSing 1000 in 64 AB for SD. Maybe a career as a LH PH awaits. Do such guys still exist? Remember when guys like Mark Sweeney, Lenny Harris and Greg Gross could carve out a career on a long bench?
• JP Arencibia has 4 HR in 32 AB for TB, perhaps granting him a new lease on MLB life... at least for a little while. Difficult to take him seriously.
• Brett Lawrie has his OPS+ up to 101, basically his career rate, but he's at the age where you;d have like to have seen some growth. His defense doesn't rate well this year and Valencia's arrival has pushed him to 2B. I wonder if that position change is for good?
• Kelly Johnson is on team number 6 since leaving Toronto 3 years ago. His OPS+ this year is 110 and he is a competent role player on a playoff-bound Mets team.
• Colby Rasmus is exactly the player he was in Toronto last season. Is 2 WAR worth 8MM? FG seems to argue that 1 WAR is worth 7.5MM (I'd need that one explained to me!) so I guess the answer might be yes.
• Adam Lind is replicating his Toronto performances with a 130 OPS+ in Milwaukee. He's seeing LHP in 20% of his PAs for a .638 OPS, which is bringing his numbers down. Who'd've guessed?
• Anthony Gose looked like he had "figured it out" early in the season, but many around here cautioned the overly enthused to take heed of his BABIP. And his BABIP has indeed fallen a great deal to the point where his OPS is now below .700. Both FG and BBRef have issues with his defense this season.

None of the young arms that were dispatched have done much yet, though of course that could change.

• Kendall Graveman's would-be success was predicated on keeping his BB and HR rates low, like he did in the minors, since he's not a strikeout pitcher. No luck so far.
• Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris have both been giving up too many homeruns. Boyd has given up 12 in 43 IP combined in Toronto and Detroit.
• Not a young arm, Randy Wolf had two good starts for Detroit before being bombed in his last two.

Anyone I'm forgetting? Bueller?

Mike - good point. Lott is so good i don't eveb consider him a toronto daily guy.

"Who's farm systems are worse than ours? I'm not saying we're the worst, what I am saying is I highly doubt any of us know nearly enough about other teams farm systems to make such a comment. I also highly doubt we are middle of the pack, I've only seen one ranking done after the trades and it placed us 26th."

heck Law had us in the 20s coming into the season BEFORE the trades.

but you don't need to know every prospect in the world to get a good feel for where your team should rank on average.

the jays right now have a good argument for having 2 top 50 prospects (Pompey and Alford), plus a good number or guys in strong consideration for B/50fv status (urena, pentecost, tellez, guerrero, reid-foley, greene, harris) plus some other legit interesting guys (jansen smith davis nay perdomo dawson) and generally well regarded rookieball/ifa depth. that is usually the formula for a middle of the pack system.

Hypobole, obviously it's tough to rank teams right now with all the prospects changing hands at the deadline or graduating to the bigs - look at all the talent that graduated for the Cubs.  Mike Green is right to point out that under 25 talent is also key, and we do quite well in that regard, but as for the farm team, I think Ugly nailed it.  I agree with his top 9 guys, and we have lots of long-range talent after (another) successful draft and international signing period.  Long range talent tends to get undervalued by some farm ranking systems, hence my comment re: upside.

Teams that are clearly worse than us?  The Pads are a mess, the Giants, Angels, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles and White Sox. 

Teams like the Phillies and Milwaukee improved significantly but are arguably still behind us - they were bottom 5 orgs for years.  Oakland and Detroit also improved at the deadline and are now close to us, but our depth has us ahead in my mind.  The Indians were mediocre and graduated their top talent in Lindor, KC was well behind us at the deadline and also gave up top talent.  The Cards were middle of the pack and graduated top talent this season, the Yanks held on to theirs for once but were middle of the pack to begin with. 

At the end of the day I've got 9 or 10 teams clearly ahead of us, 7 well behind, and a bunch in the mushy middle  ... seems middle of the pack to me - 17th or 18th with upside?

"you don't need to know every prospect in the world to get a good feel for where your team should rank on average."

You are allowed to feel anything you want, doesn't make it right. Every team has good prospects, most now have far more depth.

Here is MLB's ranking. We're 23rd. I"m not going to post the link for the only other post-trade ranking I could find, Bleacherreport's #26, because it's Bleacherreport.

http://thefirstweekofsummer.mlblogs.com/2015/08/07/power-ranking-every-mlb-farm-system-after-the-trade-deadline/

BTW, jerjapan, MLB has Phillies/Brewers 6 and 7.

"You are allowed to feel anything you want, doesn't make it right. Every team has good prospects, most now have far more depth."

thing is, objectively speaking, that's not true. we still have legit interesting prospects that wouldn't crack our top 20, and legit frontline talents in tough to crack our top 10.

its not really surprising to see us fall to slightly below average there at 23 immediately after that epic deadline, but a deeper dig over the offseason will likely see some bounceback, especially with the late season surges from the likes of pompey, alford, and greene.

note that in that mlb ranking they clearly slot the jays in their group of "average" systems, which is exactly what I'm saying they are.

Sure, several ranking systems have us in the 20s, but I fear most current analysis undervalues lower level depth - which we have - and overvalues prospects exchanged at the deadline.  I'm going to wait till I see a truly knowledgeable reviewer like Sickels to be definitive in my thinking, but he had us as 8th in the offseason and we had another above average draft / IFA period.  Yes, we graduated Osuna and Sanchez and gave up top talents in Norris and Hoffman (although as clearly outlined on the Box, he was losing some luster under a closer eye).  we also traded Boyd when his value was likely highest, and perhaps even Castro given his premature exposure to MLB hitters.  Tinoco has a big arm but remains a long way off, and Labourt is a lottery ticket. 

we got Lowe for next to nothing, Revere for a lottery ticket in Tirado, Pennington for a raffle ticket in Lugo - and the prospects we're giving up here are the types that are or will be available for free in the rule v barring a lottery win. 

I haven't seen either the Phills or the Brewers in any top tens till now, but to me that list simply reflects the fact that most casual observers are thinking - the phillies traded Cole Hamels for prospects!  The Brewers traded Ramirez!  Sure, the Phillies got a big return for Hamels, as they should have.  They got a decent return for Papelbon and a minimal return for Revere, unless you are a big Tirado fan.  and this turns + a solid draft takes them from a bottom 10 org to a top ten?  Sorry, I don't see it.  Same for the Brewers.  Both those teams are in the middle tier. 

IMO (and I admit to being no expert!), the Phillies and Brewers improved by about 10 spots each, which is likely the amount we dropped. 

and i definitely disagree with their take on Alford....though, to be fair, that was before he destroyed A+, so they may take a second look there.

for the record, my tentative rankings....

A-/B+

1. Pompey
2. Alford

B/B-

3. Reid-Foley
4. Greene
5. Tellez
6. Urena
7. Guerrero

B-/C+

8. Pentecost
9. Harris
10. Jansen
11. Hollon
12. Espada
13. Maese

C/C-

14. Davis
15. Lugo
16. Perdomo
17. Smith
18. Dawson
19. Nay
20. Borucki
21. Burns
22. Rios
23. Ratcliffe
24. Hissey
25. Encino
26. Orozco
27. Olivares

I may be missing some rankable guys from this year's draft and ifa signings, though.

just took a closer look at your list Hypobole.  That ain't MLB that has the phillies / brewers at 6/7, that's this guy blogging on MLB problogs:
"16 year old Nationals fan writing about the annual baseball trips that my Dad and I take and Major League Baseball | @1stWeekOfSummer on Twitter"

lol

(not laughing at you hypobole....it's just funny. for the record, the kid sounds pretty informed, and better than say bleacher report).

I was wondering who would call #23 "average"...guess I have my answer. :)

Anyway, the kids not far off on the Jays system. Guess we'll have to wait a while for other so-called experts to chime in.

Solid list Ugly, but Lugo got dealt for Pennington.   Why are you so down on Harris?  and who is Francisco Rios?  and who's this Encino cat?

Not Encino cat, Encino Man -- a decidely mediocre comedy film from 1992.

I like the list of prospects. It seems OK. Next year many players will get more of a chance to play. For example Brady Dragmire will go to the AFL this year. Most likely because many of the players ahead of him were traded.

Of course they still have to earn their spots.

I like Derrick Chung in AA. He was a 2012 draft pick who converted to catcher from SS. I read somewhere that he is handling the C position well and he seems to be hitting OK.

Chung certainly has shown some OBP skills but he'll be 28 before spring training, the last guy who could afford to lose most of a year to injury.  Hate to say it, but I think Brendan Fraser circa Encino Man might be a better prospect...

jer i'm a bit down on harris just because he was so bad at such a low level. but i'm not that down on him....the guys above him are just really good too.