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Game Threads Cleveland @ Blue Jays - August 31-September 2
The Blue Jays continue their homestand against the president-less Clevelanders.



Cleveland finished off a 5-0 homestand by sweeping the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend and taking two from Milwaukee. Their 63-66 record leaves them five games behind Texas for the final wild card spot.

Toronto looks to build on a 1-1/2 game lead in the AL East over the New York Yankees after breaking the brooms out on Detroit over the weekend. Their record sits at 74-56.

Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 7:07 pm ET - Danny Salazar (11-7, 3.30) vs. David Price (13-4, 2.42)
Tuesday at 7:07 pm ET - Cody Anderson (2-3, 4.30) vs. Marco Estrada (11-8, 3.19)
Wednesday at 7:07 pm ET - Trevor Bauer (10-10, 4.31) vs. R.A. Dickey (9-10, 4.25)

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT.
Cleveland @ Blue Jays - August 31-September 2 | 285 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#310363) #
Jim "The Hammer" Shapiro, attorney?  Thanks for the laugh, #2JB.
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NYJaysFan36 - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#310368) #
I remember Jim 'The Hammer.' His ads were still on when I moved to Rochester 16 years ago. Among his quotes:

"I'm a ruthless S.O.B."

and

"I may be an S.O.B., but I'm your S.O.B!"

Can't really say that he's missed.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#310370) #
Relentless. Unforgettable. Regardless of what happens this year, there will always be unforgettable memories of a Team relentless in their pursuit of the PostSeason. Each and every day just adds to the interest they draw.
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Dr. Zarco - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#310371) #
Ha! That's hilarious. I grew up in Rochester with those commercials! Now it's Celino and Barnes that are the annoying ambulance chasing ads.

Fangraphs now has the Jays winning the division at 70.2%, playoffs at 99.4%. World series odds are 2nd the bigs at 13.5%, higher than the Cards at 9.9% but way behind LA at 20.7%. Guess aces matter in their projections, which is pretty neat.

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NYJaysFan36 - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#310376) #
Hurt in a car?

Call William Mattar

4-4-4-4-4-4-4

You can't make this stuff up.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#310378) #
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greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#310379) #
Salazar has good stuff, but so far the Jays are getting themselves out. Salazar is throwing pitches off the plate, and the Jays are chasing.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#310380) #
salazar's zone much wider than price's so far.
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hypobole - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#310382) #
Salazar has been excellent. I'm not seeing much chasing, not seeing many gifts. I see Salazar hitting the edges and doing a great job of changing eye levels. The kids legit.

Lucky for us he's not Buehrle with the glove and Josh showing MVP calibre hitting.
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greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#310384) #
I actually think it was the chasing early on that helped Salazar find his groove. The Jays made him work in the first, then helped him out for a couple of innings, and Salazar was off and running.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#310385) #
iffy defense leads to all the runs price gave up. hopefully the bats get his back.
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scottt - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#310386) #
He's mixing his stuff and using the whole strike zone. That's what they call pitching.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#310387) #
everyone vote quick:

Win or Lose?
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#310388) #
(Win)
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BlueJayWay - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#310389) #
Trailing in the eighth, odds are against them.
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#310390) #
Poetry, man.  Two run homer by Encarnacion in the bottom of the eighth, followed by three quick ones from Osuna.  There, you don't need to watch.

That was a pretty play by Cecil and Smoak. 

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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#310391) #
W or L?
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#310392) #
Sorry, just missed.
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christaylor - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#310393) #
Comeback in the ninth.

So... I am late, but win.
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hypobole - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#310394) #
We're in a tight spot here, boys.
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Chuck - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#310395) #
Tulo now to hit a game-winning homerun. What? No? Wrong script?
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jjdynomite - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#310396) #
These kind of games are taking days off my life. I'm going to need some Ativan for the playoffs (pending).

But seriously, silver lining for this loss is hopefully Bautista and Donaldson work on correcting their garbage defensive plays, and the team mentality is tweaked that not everyone has given up on the season like the pushover Tigers. And hopefully Price got his only loss out of the way. :-)
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greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#310397) #
Well, "straight no Chasen" Shreve got out of a jam, but the Red Sox are still up 4-2 on the Yanks. Let's see if Boston can close it out. You know they want to play the spoiler against New York.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#310398) #
If you start swinging at a Pitcher's pitches, he starts getting confident and surprise, surprise, he starts pitching better. If you can avoid swinging at anything but your pitches, he will struggle at least a bit longer. The first inning was swinging at your own pitches. After that, someone forgot winning isn't easy?

New York is playing sucky Boston and despite trailing should still win; just like Toronto should. It's a long season and games like these make longer.
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NYJaysFan36 - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#310399) #
Anyone care to take a stab at why Jean Machi is being allowed to try to close a game against the Yankees with those miserable ratios?

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scottt - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#310400) #
Jean Machi to close the 9th with the winning run at the plate?
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greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#310401) #
The Red Sox are doing everything in their power to blow this one. Putrid pitching so far in the ninth.
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scottt - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#310402) #
4th saves for Machi. I guess he's the new Red Sox closer.
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NYJaysFan36 - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#310403) #
Phew...

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greenfrog - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#310404) #
Somehow, somehow Machi holds on and the BoSox win.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#310405) #
"Anyone care to take a stab at why Jean Machi is being allowed to try to close a game against the Yankees with those miserable ratios?"

Because the Red Sox have the worst pen in the Al. Uehara is out for the year, Tazawa was tried at closer and blew 3 saves this month, then gave up a hit and 4 walks in two thirds of an inning, which got him removed as closer and back to his normal 8th inning slot. No one in the Sox pen has more than 0.1 fWAR other than Uehara and Tazawa.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#310406) #
"hopefully Bautista and Donaldson work on correcting their garbage defensive plays"

Sorry, this made me chuckle a bit. I was envisioning Donaldson spending an hour practising holding on to the ball and not throwing it to third.
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jjdynomite - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#310407) #
Obviously I was being hyperbolic, hypobole, but hypothetically the insurance run wouldn't have scored if Donaldson held onto the ball. :-)
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#310408) #
Yeah, jj, we both agree holding onto the ball would have been the right move.

My comment was a combination of your terminology and my warped sense of humour - I just thinking aloud about how much practice a player would need in holding onto a ball and not throwing. Didn't mean to offend. :)
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China fan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#310409) #
Okay, here it is:  Jays reported to be calling up the following players:  Tepera, Loup, Francis, Pompey and Kawasaki.   (And then Thole later in the week.)  No surprises there.  I thought Francis might have a good chance of being promoted.  Perhaps the only surprise is the exclusion of Delabar -- just as he was excluded from the call-ups last September too.
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China fan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#310410) #
Here's the report by Shi Davidi on the September call-ups:  http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-set-to-promote-five-as-rosters-expand/

The Jays will have to create room on the 40-man roster for Francis.  My guess is that Colt Hynes gets dropped from the 40-man roster.

Poor old Matt Hague isn't being recalled today, but he still has a chance to be recalled at the end of the Buffalo season next week.

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John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#310411) #
We do need to keep some players in Buffalo as they have games left.  So an outfielder (Pompey), infielder (Kawasaki), catcher (Thole in a few days), and 3 relievers (Tepera, Loup, Francis).  That is plenty.  Anyone else called up will be pretty much there as a reward to the player as they won't get much playing time until the Jays clinch or are eliminated.
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eudaimon - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#310412) #
I wonder what's going on with Steve Delabar. While he's not obviously better than anyone currently in the bullpen, I'm surprised to see him not get a promotion in September. It makes me wonder if he's not well-liked in the clubhouse, or if he's just not trusted by Gibbons.
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PeterG - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#310413) #
Perhaps. Delabar has good numbers in Buffalo. I think he is a candidate to be moved in the off season.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#310414) #
CF calls it. Hynes DFA'd. Also Heisey was traded to the Dodgers last night for a PTBNL or cash.

With lefty relievers Hynes in DFA limbo and Loup in Toronto, will the Jays bother to promote Girodo to Buffalo for a week?
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#310415) #
yep, francis instead of delabar is the only surprise....though the 31st man on the roster doesn't matter much. francis' ability to soak up innings might be the deciding factor here moreso than his handedness. just in case there's that one game we get blown out in that we don't end up killing our bulllen late in the year for.

should be an interesting september for pompey. statistically speaking, pompey's destruction of age appropriate AA and v3ry good performance in age advanced AAA actually improved his prospect profile this year despite the small sample low babip mlb stint. fangraphs' KATOH update had him as a top 20 prospect 2 weeks ago. Still a couple things to watch for though - his power disappeared completely in AAA, even though it showed in mlb, so we'll have to see if that's actually a part of his game or not. Also he had a concerning jump in whiff rate in mlb and his swing profile also shows some reason for concern there - hia whiff rate might be the most important thing to keep an eye on now.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#310416) #
Huge August for Josh and Edwin. First time since 1950 that multiple players on one team have driven in 35 runs in a single month.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#310417) #
Happy with those callups. Delebar just walks too many guys for the management to trust.

With reports that aa blocked Hague from a lucrative opportunity in Asia, I feel that the team owes him a call-up when buffalo wraps their season
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Dewey - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#310420) #
Huge August for Josh and Edwin. First time since 1950 that multiple players on one team have driven in 35 runs in a single month.

Yeah.  Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr, and Walt Dropo for the Red Sox.  Some names to conjure with, those.
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NYJaysFan36 - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#310421) #
I was under the impression that once Hague was recalled, he signed a major league contract and would be paid the prorated minimum whether he was with the big club, in AAA, or even released.

That is the way it is portrayed at: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/ and makes some sense since baseball contracts are guaranteed.
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China fan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#310422) #
"...will the Jays bother to promote Girodo to Buffalo for a week?...."

Yes, he's been promoted to Buffalo today, according to a tweet by Ben Wagner.

Seems like an under-the-radar prospect.  What do we know about him?
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Chuck - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#310423) #
Had to look up ol' Walt Dropo. Now there was an interesting career. He was effectively, if not technically, a rookie at 27 where he enjoyed his peak season (finally, someone dutifully honouring the aging curve). He was 6th in MVP voting.

After a 3 WAR rookie season, he then hung on for another 12 years, amassing the grand total of another 3 WAR.

And his defensive numbers are awful. He must have been one lousy first baseman.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#310424) #
He must have been one lousy first baseman

You would be too if your name were Dropo.
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Chuck - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#310427) #
You would be too if your name were Dropo.

So maybe masking inadequacies by calling yourself Fielder is the way to go?

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Gerry - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#310430) #
Girodo is a Loup type, a low arm slot lefty who could be a LOOGY.
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China fan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#310431) #
Thanks, Gerry.  This is the third level for Girodo this season, which bodes well.  On the other hand, he began the season as a 24-year-old in Dunedin, a year older than league average.  But his numbers have improved every year, and at every level, since 2013 when he was drafted.
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christaylor - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#310433) #
Both Steven Harper and Rob Ford were at Monday's loss -- just sayin'.
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jerjapan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#310434) #
NYfan, my understanding is that players have a guaranteed AAA salary and get the mlb prorated minimum only as long as they are on the big league roster. Otherwise I think they'd be more judicious with the call-ups.

I assume a vet AAAA guy like Hague or Kawasaki has a decent triple a salary, but closer to 100,000k.

Does anyone have a source for minor league salaries? Saw an interesting article in spring about how the yanks were getting the best minor league free agents by flexing their financial muscle here, I'm curious how true that is

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Gerry - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#310435) #
There is some financial benefit to being on the 40 man roster. I am not quite sure what it is but it hurts a player to be taken off.

Once a player becomes a minor league free agent, after six years, he can negotiate the best deal he can get. A few years ago I understood some of those guys were making $15,000 to $20,000 per month in AAA, and lots more if they get called up.
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China fan - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#310436) #
Matt Hague is virtually certain to be promoted to the Jays after the Buffalo season ends on Sept. 7.   Gibbons specifically mentioned the possibility today, saying there was a "good shot" of it happening.  He wouldn't say that if it wasn't going to happen.  So Hague will get another month of major-league salary, in addition to his previous week of major-league salary in August.
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scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#310438) #
There's also a lot of money spread around to the players and staff that gravitates around a team during playoffs.
That's what I was told by a Dominican batting instructor who had friend in the Red Sox affiliates and who always visited them in October.

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scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#310439) #
I assume a vet AAAA guy like Hague or Kawasaki has a decent triple a salary, but closer to 100,000k.

Kawasaki was paid a 100K retention bonus along with Santana this spring.

NYJaysFan36's link has some weird numbers, but it list Kawasaki at $338,334 et Hague at $133,114 which are reasonable numbers for their minor league salaries.
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hypobole - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#310440) #
Cleveland has some good young pitching. If they can get their bats going, it's going to be a 2 horse race between them and the Rangers for the 2nd Wild Card. Glad were going to be done with them after tomorrow.
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Kasi - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#310441) #
Also another case of the Jays letting a pitcher get their groove. Just hope our bats can pull out in the late innings here. Guess we're not unbeatable are we?
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#310442) #
the blowouts were great but it's nice to watch real baseball again, even if we lose.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#310443) #
welcome back, Mr.Pompey!
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Chuck - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#310444) #
Dalton makes his case for the playoff roster.
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Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#310445) #
Brilliant play to steal third right after the mound conference.

How do we feel about Blue Swede as our answer to "Sweet Caroline"?
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#310446) #
did they do Hooked on a Feeling? i like it.

i was pretty depressed when they were doing Journey.
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Gerry - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#310447) #
Osuna wasn't fooling the hitters that inning.
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Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#310448) #
Lots of heaters. Looked like he only tried two changeups the whole inning (which included 3 pretty long at-bats against lefties) and missed wildly with both of them. Take away the offspeed pitch and what's left - a more poised Jason Frasor?

i was pretty depressed when they were doing Journey.

That was brutal. Like what would've happened if they drew Detroit or San Francisco in the playoffs? Glad we don't have to worry about that anymore.
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uglyone - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#310449) #
ryan goins. is this guy actually turning into a player?

(pretty sure i won't survive a playoff race. my heart ain't as young as last time around.)
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jjdynomite - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#310450) #
Goin'... Goin'... GOINS!
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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#310451) #
OK then, Mr. Goins!


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Kasi - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#310452) #
Thank you Ryan, we needed that.
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scottt - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#310453) #
Might have been worrying about the top of the lineup coming up.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#310454) #
The Jays might actually have two starting second basemen next year.
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ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#310455) #
I'd have to think that Ryan Goins is the surprise player of this season, but Marco Estrada and Kevin Pillar are up there,too. Oh, I forgot about Roberto Osuna, this game not withstanding. I think you go a long way when you have your whole roster contributing.
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Cynicalguy - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#310456) #
We might have two starting shortstops next year.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#310457) #
I actually thought Osuna did a great job of battling to keep the game 3-3, despite not having his best stuff and command. The Indians had him on the ropes but couldn't deliver the decisive blow.

Very good baseball game.
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John Northey - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#310458) #
So the Jays are up to 75 wins, or the same total as in 2009.  The next win ties 1997.  They also just passed 2013's win total.  Also ahead of 2012, 1996, 2004, 1980, 1978, 1995,1994, 1977, 1979 and 1981 (just 37 wins that year so more than double 81's win total).

The 568 winning percentage is only worse than 1985, 1992, 1987 and 1993. 

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Cracka - Tuesday, September 01 2015 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#310459) #
Since taking over as a starter on July 29th, Goins has hit .306/.396/.459. He has 18 walks in just over 100 plate appearances during that time... which is about the same amount (19) as he had during his first 500 plate appearances. And he's probably the 9th best hitter in our starting line-up.

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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:00 AM EDT (#310460) #
I like Goins in the Zobrist role, and he's particularly valuable with Tulowitzki's history of injuries (hopefully we don't have to add Travis to that sentence. Too soon to say).

Defensively he's great at 2B and SS, and I assume he's also good at 3B. How did he look those dark days earlier in the season when he was in LF?
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:06 AM EDT (#310461) #
Until last night, Dalton Pompey had a grand total of 3 stolen bases in 40 major-league games.  And then he steals 2 bases in one inning, boosting his career total by 67% within the span of a few minutes.  It's unclear why he wasn't attempting to steal in the majors in the past.  He had 136 stolen bases in the minors, so why was he so cautious in Toronto?  If he's now finally beginning to steal in the majors, it adds a significant new weapon to his arsenal, and certainly improves his chances of become a big contributor for the Jays.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#310462) #
Dalton got back to the show just in time. Good thing there weren't any games like this one all that time the Jays were rolling with 3 outfielders while Dalton beat up minor leaguers. The 8th reliever was a real difference maker on several occasions.

Phtbbbt!
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#310463) #
Jonny, you never cease to dig up old battles!   But you're absolutely right, the Jays might have had a shot at the playoffs if only they had gotten rid of that 8th reliever.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#310464) #
The team playing well does not at all mean that it has been managed optimally. The argument can be made that it didn't matter in the end, sure. And also that Pompey benefitted from being down as long as he was. But there is no argument to be made that the 8th reliever was useful.

As for the stolen bases, why are you only looking at his 40 big league games? He played 10 times that number of games in the minors and stole a ton of bases at a great success rate.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:33 AM EDT (#310465) #
"....As for the stolen bases, why are you only looking at his 40 big league games?...."

You completely missed the point.  Or perhaps you didn't even read what I wrote.  I pointed out the contrast between his minor-league SB rate and his major-league SB rate, and I asked why he had been more cautious in the majors.  I asked whether his 2 stolen bases last night were a sign that he was reverting to his minor-league SB rate.  I certainly wasn't "looking only" at his 40 big-league games.  In fact, it's now 41 major-league games, and I was interested in the dramatic contrast between his 41st game and his previous 40 games.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#310466) #
Ooops. Quite right, I missed that somehow. Apologies.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:39 AM EDT (#310467) #
"...But there is no argument to be made that the 8th reliever was useful...."

No argument to be made?  You must have missed the dozens of posts by several of us over the past 2 or 3 years, noting that many major-league teams often go with 8 relievers, and that there are many reasons for this.  Fine, you disagree, and a number of other people disagree, but you can't say there's "no argument" to be made.  I won't repeat all the arguments now because it has become tedious, but I hope that Bauxites won't be leaping on any success by Dalton Pompey in the next few weeks as proof that the 8-man bullpen is always wrong. 

When rosters expand and there are suddenly extra hitters on the bench, the Jays can do a lot more pinch-hitting and pinch-running.  The bullpen is also bigger and more flexible.  None of that is really relevant to the dispute about the 8-man bullpen.
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Thomas - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:58 AM EDT (#310468) #
CF, how is a game that illustrates the options available to John Gibbons in terms of using bench players, and the sort of substitutions he may elect to make with more bench options at his disposal, not relevant to the discussion about an 8-man bullpen.

You can argue that having the 8th man is more important than the fifth bench player, of course, but last night was a prime example of the options that open up to Gibbons with 5 men on his bench (he had more, but the hypothetical 5 man bench would have been Martin, Pennington, Colabello, Pompey and Carrerra. Or maybe the club has a second backup who can play the middle infield, but you could still have pinch run with Kawasaki for Navarro in the ninth). I fail to see how last night is not relevant to the debate.

(Last night was also a good example of how having to have Thole on your roster is a noticeable limitation.)
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 07:06 AM EDT (#310469) #
Yes, you're right, I shouldn't say the expanded-roster situation is not "relevant" -- I should just say that it's not a very good analogy for the choices that must be made on a 25-man roster.

If you're arguing for a 5-man bench, you'll have to explain how major-league teams these days can survive with a 6-man bullpen.  My view is that relievers will be over-used and less effective if there's a 6-man pen, and managers will have very restricted choices in the late innings, if there's a 6-man pen.  That's probably why it's rarely done these days.

"....a good example of how having to have Thole on your roster is a noticeable limitation..."

The Jays don't really HAVE to have Thole on their roster any more.  They brought him up because of Martin's hamstring injury -- a nagging injury that noticeably improved as soon as he got a bit more rest.

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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#310471) #
I guess we're just taking turns missing each other's points. I was speaking about the latest 8-man pen, the one that was in effect from August 1st. There is no argument to be made that that particular arrangement was useful right down to the 8th reliever.

More generally, of course there can be situations where 8 men in the pen is the right move for a particular team at a particular time. I think those times are very few and far between, but I don't care to argue that they never exist.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#310473) #
JP Arencibia is back in the majors and had a 6-RBI night for the Rays. Casey Janssen had his second rough night in a row for the Nationals and now sports a 4.91 ERA.
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scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#310474) #
(Last night was also a good example of how having to have Thole on your roster is a noticeable limitation.)

There's nothing Navarro did last night that Thole couldn't have done. Or are you arguing against 3 catchers which only happened for a week when they needed only 4 starters.
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scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#310475) #
The 8-man pen was used to keep ineffective pitchers around. That's very seldom necessary. This team doesn't even have a LOOGY. This team hasn't even played a doubleheader this year.  It has pitchers that are only used in blowouts. I'm pretty sure somebody in the pen could throw an extra inning once a week.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#310476) #
carrera stole 50 bases last year. he's a fine pinch runner.

and how long did we go with 8rp for? maybe 2 weeks of the season?
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Gerry - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#310477) #
Last night Pompey stole off a pitcher with a slow delivery. Gomes had no chance on the steal of second and he didn't even bother to throw on the steal of third. The pitchers delivery time means more to a chance to steal than the catchers throwing. Pompey's steals last night are a reflection on the pitcher, more than on Pompey's inclination to run.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#310478) #
Jeff Sullivan looks at the new Goins: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ryan-goins-is-the-new-reason-well-never-understand-baseball/
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Cracka - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#310479) #
Gibby said after the game that Pompey always has the green light to steal unless they tell him otherwise. I wonder if this is different from his previous 40 games and he was waiting for the "steal sign" before?

His success rate in the minors this year was decent (23 SB / 10 CS), but not spectacular... but maybe Gibby thinks that he has a better feel ("instinct") on when to run. Or maybe he just took advance of a very slow delivery last night...
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hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#310480) #
On a night where Grienke and Bumgarner locked in a terrific pitchers duel in a game with huge playoff ramifications, they ended up as 2nd fiddle on ESPN's Top 5 behind Ryan Goins. The HR was huge and his 124 ft+ run and catch on Chisenhall's popup was the ESPN Web Gem last night.

It was noted his .403 OBP since July 3 leads all MLB 2nd basemen.

Cracka mentioned Goins is probably our 9th best hitter. But if someone didn't know his past history and simply has been watching his plate appearances the past month or so, that would seem wrong. He's having consistent quality at bats.

We had a discussion earlier about late bloomers who made and maintained changes in approach and mechanics. I'm not sold on Goins being able to keep up what he's been doing, because the more respect one garners, the more opponents focus on finding and attacking any weaknesses. And teams are getting really good at doing exactly that. But even if he settles in halfway between what he was and what he has been lately, that's a very good ballplayer.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#310481) #
The Sullivan article doesn't, to my mind, capture what has changed in Goins' hitting approach.  Resting his bat on his shoulder and then lifting it off immediately prior to delivery is a relaxation and timing (the two are interconnected) mechanism.  Goins was a better hitter in the minors than he had shown in the major leagues.  The hand-eye co-ordination was there, but the ability to time major league pitching was not.  Bravo to Jacoby and Owens for helping that process along.  Anyways, I think that Goins has indeed turned a corner and will be a good player for years to come. 

Maybe I've missed it, but I don't hear Tabler talking too much about Jacoby.  It surprises me a bit because they were long-time teammates in Cleveland in the 80s. 

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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#310483) #
John Lott on the stadium improvement plans.
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hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#310484) #
Yeah, the Sullivan piece was a bit simplistic. This has been posted before, but if anyone missed it, it shows what type of pitches Goins has been swinging and not swinging at.

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/ryan-goins-wonders-good-approach/
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cruzin - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#310485) #
"Pompey's steals last night are a reflection on the pitcher, more than on Pompey's inclination to run."

My thoughts as well. Nonetheless, nice to see no hesitation on Pompey's part in taking advantage of the situation that presented itself.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#310486) #
It is hard to believe but Trevor Bauer leads the league in walks allowed with 67 in 150 innings, or a walk rate of 3.8/9IP (Tyson Ross leads the majors with 75 in 165 innings) .  It wasn't so long ago that 3.8 would have been just above league average.  Usually there is a Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan or Daniel Cabrera around walking 100+ batters in a season.  So, I did a little checking.  The league-leader in walks always had 100 or more from before the turn of the 20th century until 2009 (except for strike-shortened years).  In 2010, Jonathan Sanchez led the league with 96 walks.

Bauer is a fly-ball pitcher.  As long as the Jays are as patient and selective as they usually are, Bauer's weaknesses will not play well in the RC against this lineup. 

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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#310487) #
"Goins was a better hitter in the minors than he had shown in the major leagues."

not sure that's true.

AAA (25-27): 841pa, 6.8bb%, 18.3k%, .089iso, 91wrc+
AA (24-24): 618pa, 7.6bb%, 12.6k%, .114iso, 105wrc+
A+ (22-23): 580pa, 7.4bb%, 17.2k%, .101iso, 89wrc+

even though he was well overage at each level he was sti a well below average hitter with poor peripherals. there is nothing in there that indicated he could hack it in mlb.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#310488) #
I recall being over-enthusiastic about Kevin Pillar's hitting prowess in July, at the peak of his two-month hitting surge, and I believe Jonny correctly expressed some skepticism about my enthusiasm at the time.  Pillar has now reverted to his career hitting norms, despite those two months where he hit like an all-star.  (From June 1 to July 31, over 51 games, Pillar's OPS was .815 with superb defence -- which is all-star-calibre performance for a centre fielder.)  So perhaps we should be skeptical of Goins, too, until he sustains the excellent hitting for more than a month.   On the other hand, it's also reasonable to express optimism about both Pillar and Goins, since this is their first season of prolonged exposure to the majors. 

Streaky hitters sometimes become consistently good.  Encarnacion was viewed as "streaky" until he became consistently good.  I'm of course not suggesting that Goins and Pillar will become great hitters, but they are still young and still improving and they have a chance to be good hitters.

On the other hand there are streaky hitters like JP Arencibia who convince us that their hot streaks are a foreshadowing of a great future.  In reality their streaks of greatness become less frequent and they fall into decline.  So we can't predict anything, but I think Goins and Pillar still have a chance to transform their streaks into consistently good performance.

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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#310489) #
"....JP Arencibia is back in the majors and had a 6-RBI night for the Rays. Casey Janssen had his second rough night in a row...."

Speaking of ex-Jays, last night was the Colorado debut of Miguel Castro.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 1.1 innings.  He might need to adjust to Coors Field.
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Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#310490) #
Today and each day until the 8th we'll find out if anyone else gets called up. Marcus Stroman pitches again today - live game action this time, one more step.
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Kasi - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#310491) #
I think Pillar should have a better chance at being a better major league hitter when you look at his minor league performance. However I think Goins current change is a bit more sustainable, or at the least a bit more positive.

Pillar is basically trying to turn himself into Ben Revere. Get a lot of contact and not strike out too much, but have poor on base. Goins is just being a lot more selective with how he hits.
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#310492) #
RE: Goins/Pillar, Goins' hot streak has a much better chance to be a real thing due to his walk rate. Pillar, even when hot, didn't walk at all. And a lot of the non-walk hitting stats can forever to normalize.

Walk rates don't take all that long to normalize, or become reliable, 125 ABs. And Goins is maintaining a walk rate at about 20% over his last 110 ABs.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#310493) #
the pillar comp doesn't work for me because A) their milb track records are completely different, and B) pillar's surge had nothing to do with BB%.

pillar was a really good milb hitter, albeit overaged and with no walks....but still good enough to project a guy who could be below average but not awful in mlb.....and good enough that his defense and baserunning could mame him valuable. i also don't think pillar's monthly splits tell the story - imo his season has been a bunch of hot and cold streaks, in fact if we break his season down into 10gm splits of wrc+:

1. 93
2. 42
3. 119
4. 3
5. 1
6. 174
7. 199
8. 148
9. 82
10. 39
11. 20
12. 2
13. 150

it's been a legit rollercoaster for pillar this year....and with his babip-dependant approach that's probably to be expected. if he can end up around 90wrc+ in the end then that makes him a very good player. and with his milb track record there's a solid chance of that (and hey he was at 92 last year in mlb).

but Goins is a different kettle of fish altogether imo. a guy who has never shown hitting ability is now having sustained success with an entirely new approach....it is hard to know what to think of this right now. it doesn't at all follow the usual fluke hot streak narrative.
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Chuck - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#310494) #
Pillar is basically trying to turn himself into Ben Revere.

Pillar's 2015 isolated OBP/SLG: 036/110
Revere's career isolated OBP/SLG: 035/080

Their offensive profiles are indeed similar, but Revere makes better contact and hits for a higher average while Pillar hits for more power. I think Pillar is too twitchy to profile any more closely to Revere. Looking to slap singles to the opposite field doesn't seem to jibe with his personality.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#310495) #
CF, no one is expecting Goins to hit like he has since August 1.  If he did, he'd be an MVP candidate.  What I am saying is that his seasonal line of .246/.318/.357 is sustainable and reflects an important adjustment.  There's nothing about his seasonal line that screams fluke- the K rate, the W rate, the IsoP, the BABIP are all reasonable and consistent with his early minor league career.  He did hit .300 in the  minors with the help of .BABIPs north of .370.  He's not going to do that in the major leagues but everything else fits. 

The same is true of Pillar.  All along, I have thought that he could hit .270/.300/.400 in the major leagues and would be a valuable player if he did that. 

The surprise for both Pillar and Goins is how good they have been defensively.  The club's development staff can give themselves a pat on the back for that.  The player's personal qualities obviously have a lot to do with how they progress, but when you see unexpected progress from several young players, it is a sign that someone is probably doing a very fine job of teaching. 

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hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#310496) #
Kasi said some of what I was going to say.

Pillar's adjustment during his hot streak seemed to be timing, making solid contact with hittable pitches. He still had and has severe pitch recognition and pitch selectivity issues - the proverbial "hacker". This type of hitter is easier to adjust to as a pitcher, simply by throwing fewer hittable pitches.

Goins adjustment seems more approach and selectivity. Laying off pitches in areas that he has trouble making solid contact or any contact. He seems to be OK with allowing pitchers to get ahead if their command is good enough to hit those spots, but a lot of pitchers can't do that consistently. And with 2 strikes, Goins will expand a bit to cover that outside area. This seems more likely to be sustainable, to me at least.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#310497) #
small nit to pick - revere's typical .330-.335 obp is quite good and well above the typical league average of around .315.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#310498) #
Of course Pillar and Goins are very different hitter, and I wasn't trying to suggest any parallels in their hitting approaches or how they made their improvements.  Just saying that they are currently both inconsistent hitters (unless you totally buy everything that Goins has done in the past month and don't expect any drop-off in his production, which to me is way too optimistic).  And just also saying that "turning point" assumptions should always be wrapped in many caveats until we have a much bigger sample size.

I think all of the posters above -- Mike, uglyone, JB21, Chuck, Kasi -- make excellent points about the two hitters and their relative chances of success.

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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#310499) #
"....it's been a legit rollercoaster for pillar this year...."

Wow, those 10-game splits are awesome!
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BlueJayWay - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#310500) #
I concur with the Goins v Pillar talk. Even when he was hot, Pillar looked like the same hitter to me that he's always been. Flailing away at everything, he was just getting some babip luck. Goins really looks like a different hitter, and the walk rate has exploded. I don't know if this will continue but it should be interesting to watch.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#310501) #
Goin'... Goin'... GOINS!

Awesome. My GF has been saying something similar all year, and i gotta say my vote is for

"Goins Goins Gone!"
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Vulg - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#310502) #
If Pillar's current seasonal slash line is what we can expect, I'm very happy.

Pillar is second on the Jays in WAR and 19th in the American League according to ESPN http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/al/sort/WARBR/order/true

That his extraordinary defense is augmented by a bat that is sufficient for the Majors to the extent that he's contributed the 'most wins' behind Donaldson is pretty mind boggling to me.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#310503) #
remember that pillar is hitting just about where he was projected - a little bit under .700ops. in fact he's a tick below projections but that may be due to getting more pa vRHP than projected. basically he is who we thought he was.

goins, on the other hand, was projected to be in the high .500s ops. what he is doing is entirely unexpected.
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China fan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#310505) #
For what it's worth, Goins himself is denying that his recent success is due to any adjustment at all.  Aside from resting his bat on his shoulders, he says he is doing nothing new at all.  When asked what he is doing differently, his answer is: "Nothing with my swing, nothing with the way I hit the ball, nothing with pitch selection, it's all just happened."

Which might only mean that Goins doesn't want to reveal any secrets of his trade.  Or it might just indicate that he made the changes much earlier, and it just took a while for the results to kick in.  He did show a significant jump in OBP in Buffalo from 2013 to 2014.
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Kasi - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#310506) #
Revere's decent OBP is because of his very good contact skills. I think Pillar has done a good job of suppressing strike outs and is partway there on emulating Reveres contact rates, but he's not there yet. Plus he walks less than Revere. Than again he's younger and might get there. I don't really know if Pillar should really be trying to emulate Ben, but that does seem to be what he's doing.

Also as has been pointed out, Pillars approach has the same issue as Reveres, but just more severe due to worse contact and walk rate. If he doesn't hit (and this holds with Ben too) their value plummets. They're not getting walks and the occasional hit they get during a dry spell will be a single most likely. Nice thing with a hitter like Jose is that even when his babip is .100 he supplies a lot of value from his ability to draw a walk.

It will be interesting to see how Goins adjusts when pitchers adjust to his new approach more.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#310507) #
i agree with chuck on that one - revere is a true ichiroish slash'n'dash all fields hitter, while pillar is more of a grip'n'rip pull hitter. I don't find them all that similar.
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hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#310508) #
Goins may deny adjustments, but the numbers tell a different story.

Outside the strke zone swing %
2013 - 36.9
2014 - 35.8

This year by month
36.5 Apr
28.3
33.3
27.5
23.7 Aug

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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#310509) #
I wouldn't put it quite that way.  Pillar is much more likely to chase bad pitches, and also has somewhat more power than Revere.  He is quite capable slapping a line drive to right center-field or occasionally down the line on a pitch away often enough, as well as turning on a pitch down and in and driving over the wall in left.  There is no one way to get him out.  He also has significant issues that crop up from time to time- this year, it's been an unhealthy pop-up rate. 

It's funny.  He is much the same way on the bases.  Fangraphs has him as a fine baserunner overall, but he does make more than his share of baserunning errors.  It is only with the glove that he is consistently good and solid.  Notwithstanding all that, it does add up to a good ballplayer...

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Thomas - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#310510) #
My comment about Thole was intended on a general level regarding the additional roster repercussions that Dickey's knuckleball can create. I supported the team calling up Thole when they did, given how it was clear Martin was banged up and needed some rest. All I was intending to note was that Dickey's knuckleball either necessitates Thole's presence on the roster or creates additional wear and tear on the primary catcher, which appeared to be impacting Martin as the season wore in.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#310514) #
i dunno mike i never see pillar slap the ball like revere seems to much of the time. he's not the biggest pullhitter ever but he's mainly a pull guy i think and his oppo contact are mostly pop ups and flares. ben revere's spraycharts are unnaturally symmetrical.
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hypobole - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#310515) #
This is from today's Marlins-Braves game

"Mathis doubled to deep left, Ozuna scored, Rojas to second, Rojas thrown out at third attempting to advance on play."

It seems odd Rojas is only credited 2nd on Mathis' double.

2 scenarios come to mind. One Rojas thought the ball would be caught and he held up or tagged up. The other is he ran past 3rd, stopped and was tagged trying to get back, though he would be considered advancing to 3rd then, no?







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Intricated - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#310516) #
Watching the highlight, the latter happened.  MLB.com's PbP is "...Rojas out at third on the throw...".
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smcs - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#310517) #
For what it's worth, Goins himself is denying that his recent success is due to any adjustment at all.  Aside from resting his bat on his shoulders, he says he is doing nothing new at all.  When asked what he is doing differently, his answer is: "Nothing with my swing, nothing with the way I hit the ball, nothing with pitch selection, it's all just happened.

He's done something, but maybe he doesn't realize that he has done something. From my perspective, it looked like Goins' upper and lower half weren't in sync. He would put his front foot down and push his hips forward, and then push backwards off of his front foot so that his hips could open up, so any force that he had built up with his legs was not generating bat speed. He has shifted his feet a bit in his stance. Before, his feet were on a line with roughly where the 2nd baseman plays. Now, they are almost on a line with the pitcher, or pointed to the short-stop side of 2nd base. I think he has also begun his swing later by slowing down when he lifts his front foot and starts moving his hands, and I think he has also adopted a more exaggerated step with his front foot, which slows down his lower half, and his front foot seems to be landing closer to home plate, which means his front half is a little more closed off than before, and his hips aren't getting way ahead of his arms.

Compare his first career HR (which should be appearing in GIF form, but if it isn't, follow this link: https://gifs.com/gif/vWBOXw, or go to the 2:29 mark of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNlB6eWvCi0):


His front hip is basically stopped before his arms start to come forward, so he has to sort of sit down with his lower half, almost, in order for his hips to rotate.

In his home run from last night, which should be GIF'd below(if not, link to gif: http://giant.gfycat.com/BetterFatherlyJapanesebeetle.gif, and link to youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CRPGNfGskI), his front hip and front shoulder stay closed longer, and he isn't pushing backwards with his lower half.



It isn't an entirely re-worked swing, but he has changed his feet and hands in his stance, started his swing a tad later, and has changed where his front foot lands. This, I think, is helping him to see the pitches a bit longer, so he isn't chasing as much bad stuff, and he is better able to put a good swing on something that is in the zone.
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NYJaysFan36 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#310519) #
Something like this may already exist, but I spent some time compiling something of a yearly batter register for the Jays.

jays hitting

Players are chosen for positions simply based on the number of starts at the position in that season. I understand this keeps Tulowitzki, Revere, and Goins off the chart (for now).

The statistic used is wRAA since it allows for seasonal league averae variation and is cumulative. Despite that, 2015 Blue Jay hitters have already exceeded the offensive output of all of the greatest seasons in their history with a month to go. The regular lineup trails only the 1993 squad (and curiously last year) bolstered by Olerud, Alomar, and Molitor's career years.

Interestingly enough the best hitting Blue Jays team in history (for another month) was the 1983 team, the first winning season in franchise history. It was led by a high end year for Ernie Whitt, far and away Willie Upshaw's best year, and a solid year from Cliff Johnson.

I put it together year by year in chronological order and in the process learned a lot about team history and tenure. I also learned a lot about the best and worst seasons by position. Homer Bush's 2000 was impossibly bad, in only a half-season! That same year, Carlos Delgado was completely ridiculous in the greatest season ever by a Jays hitter. What also struck me is how different this year's team is compared to last. Does it feel like Melky Cabrera, Juan Francisco, and Colby Rasmus were here just last year?

Anyway, I hope it's enjoyable to folks on the site.

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Dewey - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#310521) #
ben revere's spraycharts are unnaturally symmetrical.

You statheads are indeed a weird bunch.  Is it really necessary to reveal such information about poor Ben?  Let the man have some privacy.  And calling it “unnatural” seems a tad much.
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JohnL - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#310522) #

"Broadcast legend Jerry Howarth" What???

I notice that's how Fan590 hypes him on the radio broadcasts. I see Dewey has just posted (on another topic entirely), so knowing how much of a Jerry fan he is, I thought I'd pass on news of Jerry's elevation to exalted heights.

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christaylor - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#310523) #
Nice chart -- well done. I definitely enjoyed it and thanks for compiling it.

I wonder how meaningful the simple sum of the players' wRAA is -- at a glance it looks like it would correlate with the team figure, but that's expected with variability in playing time if I am reading the table correctly. One way it could fail that if a +5 wRAA is not as good as a -5 wRAA is bad -- which seems as if it'd could be true.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#310524) #
Baseball broadcasting legends?  Mel Allen, Red Barber, Vin Scully, Jack Buck, Harry Caray, maybe Ernie Harwell.  These weren't necessarily the best broadcasters (Denny Matthews and Dan Shulman would be on my list), but it does take awhile to be viewed as a legend.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#310525) #
Ben Lindbergh in Grantland on Marcus Stroman's treatment regime. The conclusion: "he's in the best shape of his life", with data to support that.
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JohnL - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#310526) #

"Legend" has become a pretty popular and easy word to toss around. Demeans it: who could possibly put Howarth in or even near the place those guys earned?

It takes a while, but very old age, or even better death, helps to be given the designation. (I wouldn't be that surprised to hear someone refer to "the legendary Tom Cheek, but sure was when I heard about The Legendary Jerry).

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NYJaysFan36 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#310527) #
Right, there are some seasons where they employed a lot of part-time players or time-shares. That's why I included plate appearances for additional perspective. It becomes obvious where there was a positional instability (1993 LF) or a significant injury (Kawasaki played a lot of SS in 2013).

By and large the overall team number is much less than the 'normal' lineup as bench players and eventually pitchers tend to drag it down. That was certainly the case the last 4 years. Not this year however, and once Revere supplants Colabello as the 'regular' LF, the numbers should tighten up further, really highlighting the depth of this year's hitters.

I'd like to do something with pitchers. Having trouble with it though due to the fact that WAR is tied too closely to FIP and that the linear outcomes needed to create something like wRAA Against aren't readily available. I'm not trying to predict anything, more interested in what happened, lucky or not, and am okay with defense being part of the run prevention side, good or bad.
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Dewey - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#310528) #
Oh lordy, no!  A thousand times no.  I’ve been away from the telly for a few days and have had no alternative but to tune in Jerry/Joe.  This has simply confirmed my distaste for their incessant chatter, fearing a single moment’s quiet.  Repetition, trite observations, overly technical analysis of the Sawkiw sort from Joe, coercive camaraderie from them both, lots of chuckles at their own ‘humour’.  OMG.  It’s all there, incessantly.  Oozing with unction and sanctimony.  Who exactly called him ‘legendary’? 

Agree with you entirely about “legendary”, JohnL.  It’s been hopelessly demeaned. 

Btw, NYjaysfan36, I enjoyed your chart and did not mean to distract from its usefulness by my intervening posts.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#310529) #
Very cool chart, NYJaysFan36.

I'd like to do something with pitchers.

I did something related with starting pitchers 5 years ago. I didn't try to capture performance other than simple Innings Pitched. What was interesting to me was visualising the generations of the rotation. At that time the Jays were just leaving the Halladay era, which had of course been proceed by the Hentgen era and the Stieb era. At that time I called Romero "the safest bet" to be the name of the next generation. That didn't work out very well.
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Vulg - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#310530) #
I can't listen to the radio broadcasts. Jerry makes me nuts.

In addition to Dewey's list (which is spot-on), his nasal voice, Leave it to Beaver style, horrid sense of timing in actually calling plays and a unique ability to marvel at the most pointless of facts all drive me away from the Jays on the dial. I usually resign myself to listening to music while refreshing TheScore app on my phone.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#310531) #
I missed the Statcast description of Goins' catch.  99.6% route efficiency is impressive. 
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scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#310532) #
I can't really appreciate that without an histogram of route efficiency for second baseman catching pop ups, but it does sound good.
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ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#310533) #
I missed the Statcast description of Goins' catch. 99.6% route efficiency is impressive.

By contrast, I've noticed that Devon Travis has trouble going to his left. Much easier balls that remain in fair territory have eluded him. I think he was hurt on a ball that he fielded going to his left. So far, Travis missing August has worked out great for Toronto, and it would be interesting to see what would happen if he were ready. I think it would be a problem taking Goins off of second, and I say that as someone who likes Devon Travis.
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christaylor - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#310534) #
"Look for Roy Halladay to return to Toronto in 2015. Hopefully he’ll stick around for more than a single year and be more than a shadow of his former self.”

Almost.Damn.

I guess this is the Buehrle era? I can live with that... I wish I could see a long Stroman era coming, but small RHP don't seem to care well for long. A Price era seems vaguely visible, if I wish hard enough.

Apropos of nothing... I think that sound coming through my office window was the sound of the Red Sox sucking. Jays tickets for decent seats are going for $10 online.
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jjdynomite - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#310535) #
Jonny German, I know you were implying longevity, but I find it amusing you coined the "Halladay Era", "Hentgen Era" and "Stieb Era", while Rocket Roger blew them all out of the water in his Cy Young years, which were obviously his only years on the team (including WAR comparisons to Hentgen and Halladay's Cy years). Of course, no Yankee soup nor HoF for you!

---

In more contemporary news, the talking heads at ESPN are near unanimously coming around to Donaldson as MVP:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13558683/predicting-mlb-season-ending-awards

He's a baseball rat! He's a gamer! He comes to the park every day ready to play! He leaves it out there! He changed the culture of the team!

Ahhh, Eric Wedge.

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D. King - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#310536) #
A while back there were several posts around these parts discussing the historical ranking of this Blue Jays offence. R/G is inadequate to this task due to league-wide trends and fluctuations in offensive levels which are not factored in. I think that there was a poster here who used a measure of the gap between the team's R/G and the league average as an improved measure. I agree with that, but believe that it is less than perfect as it neglects to factor in the ratio between the magnitude of the gap and the average, not to mention the fact that as the number of teams in the league grew, the impact of any one team's total on the average would shrink.

Since then I've been meaning to dig into the standard deviations of each team's R/G total and the league average. Today I found myself on a particularly long and tedious call, and so decided to get to it. I've calculated the R/G for each team in the A.L. for every year back to the founding of the junior circuit in 1901. Using these I calculated the average R/G and the standard deviation for each season. I simply ranked each team-season in terms of the number of standard deviations from that season's average, et voila:

#5 - 2006 New York Yankees (2.21 standard deviations above the mean)
#4 - 1965 Minnesota Twins (2.23)
#3 - 1914 Oakland Athletics (2.30)
#2 - 2007 New York Yankees (2.44)
#1 - 2015 Toronto Blue Jays (2.83)(!!!)

The more I look at this the more impressed with it I am. In total there have been 16 teams in 114 seasons that have exceeded the A.L. average by more than two standard deviations, and this year's Jays exceed it by 2.83!

Historically good, indeed.

Though not necessarily a guarantee of anything: none of the other four on that list above won the whole shebang. The two Yankee teams lost out in the ALDS, while the Twins and Athletics teams both lost the World Series.

Additional squads of note: the '92 Jays were 1.33 standard deviations above league average; WAMCO a paltry 1.25.

I'll work on adding the N.L. to this database when I can. If anyone has any questions/suggestions about further analysis with this let me know!
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christaylor - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#310537) #
Nice - the only issue I see with this is that the z-score approach you're using assumes an underlying normal distribution.

I'd happily be wrong but I am skeptical that the data set you are working with satisfy this assumption. You can check this by looking at a histogram of the R/G each season (or pooling data from a few seasons close in time).

This thread has been great... hat tip to all the amazing content.
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D. King - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#310538) #
Hmmm - yes I see the issue there. I suppose that the fact that each population is at most 15 prevents this from really working then? When I look at the last 18 seasons in total the distribution appears normal, but each individual season exhibits far more irregularity.

I'd like to keep digging if there's a chance of salvaging this, and have a question for those who have greater statistical acumen than myself: If I create some sort of rolling batch so that each team's record was compared to the average and standard deviation of a set including the previous five seasons, thus increasing the population to one that did exhibit a normal distribution, would that take care of the issue?
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NYJaysFan36 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#310539) #
WAMCO had to deal with the '93 Tigers who really put on an offensive display. The entire team had an OPS of .796. Kind of reminds me of how ridiculous this year's Cardinals entire pitching staff is with an ERA of 2.66.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#310540) #
Stroman with 4 hitless innings, 1 walk and 6 Ks.  OK.
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Cracka - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#310541) #
Tulowitzki hit sacrifice fly to second, Donaldson scored.

Best play-by-play line of the year so far?
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JB21 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#310543) #
Stro pitched to two more batters and struck out one.

4.2IP, 0H, 1BB, 7K.
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uglyone - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#310544) #
holy nice work in this thread this aft, gents. 2 or 3 of those posts deserve their own threads i think.

Stroman: 4.2ip, 0r, 0h, 1bb, 7k, 69pc

that'll do, kid, that'll do.

i'm gonna go ahead and pencil him in for a start in NY on the 12th/13th.
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scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#310545) #
Complete game, 1 run, 4 hits from Dickey.
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scottt - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#310546) #
First half, 3-10 ERA 4.87
Second half 7-0 ERA 2.78

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jerjapan - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#310547) #
I like jerry howarth, reminds me of my grandpa, but I get the dislike for him round here.

But what did John Huston say in Chinatown? 'Politicians, ugly buildings and ****** all get respectable if they last long enough'.
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baagcur - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#310549) #
I like jerjapan, reminds me of my grandpa, keeps repeating himself
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whiterasta80 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#310550) #
D king, presumably that is the 1914 Philadelphia athletics? They of the $100,000 infield?

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whiterasta80 - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#310551) #
Nitpicking aside, I found that research very interesting.
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John Northey - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#310552) #
I see those stats as relevant.  When the type of distribution is unknown going with normal makes the most sense until shown otherwise.  For team run scored I don't see why it wouldn't be normally distributed.  What are the worst in the past 115 years?  If they are off by 3 or 4 SD instead then one has to think about what the actual curve is.  Raw talent is more a Chi-Square distribution with tons near 0 and fewer and fewer as you go outwards.  For example, the 0 level might be the Bauxite Baseball League - there are literally millions who can play in that league.  Then you get to guys like Donaldson who would be many SD from 0. 
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christaylor - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#310553) #
I don't think of the point of non-normality is a nitpick but an assumption that is central to the approach used. Whole techniques in statistics (e.g., bootstrapping) have been devised to deal with non-normality. It matters.

Assuming normality is bad idea here because a) I wouldn't be surprised if even the 18 year summed data fail a normality test in an interesting way (my guess is the distribution would have non-normal skew) b) we know the distribution is non-normal even before we start R/G has a lower bound at 0.

That said in practice the way forward is know and evaluate the assumptions of the test. Not infrequently the violations don't change the interpretation of the results (the rank order of the best offense might not change here). Statistical inference makes arguments with data and bad/violated assumptions make for weak arguments.
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John Northey - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#310554) #
Theoretically R/G has the lower bound but practically it never reaches it or gets close, not even for the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (scored 3.4 r/g next worst was 4.8) or for any team in 1968 (in the NL 2 teams were at 2.9 r/g best was 4.2).  For our purposes here I suspect the normal assumption works fine especially when the Jays are so far ahead.  There are more complex tests that can be used but sometimes the time and effort just aren't worth it.
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D. King - Wednesday, September 02 2015 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#310555) #
I feel like the results of that cut suggest that this offense is an outlier, which is something that has already been widely agreed upon. However, I think that christaylor's point is pretty important: if the purpose is to try and measure how much of an outlier it is then there's no room for sloppy stats.

I guess that there are two ways to tighten this up: qualify that the analysis is based upon an assumption of normalized distribution, or change the analysis somehow to avoid having to make the assumption.

I'd prefer the latter if possible, but need a little help in terms of how this could be achieved.

@whiterasta80- indeed that is the team. I bet there are some good anecdotal stories about them that would make for good reading, but alas I am on the road and my historical abstract is not at hand.

In fact, as a young guy who is new to the study of baseball history, I was a bit shocked that the '65 Twins made the top five (that gave me pause during my smell test).
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John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#310556) #
The 1965 Twins...I had no idea they were the AL Champs that year, scored 4.8 r/g vs #2 Detroit at 4.2
They had 9 guys with 300+ PA, 7 had OPS+ over 100.  Oddly their team OPS+ was just 100 though.  A team that must have had everything go right.  Names people here might know are Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva, Zoilo Versalles (a very good hitting SS in an era of defensive wizards)

Yeah, that team is not one I'd have expected but seeing their R/G vs league you can see how they would jump out at you.  In high leverage they hit for a 769 OPS  vs their overall 722 OPS. 740 with RISP, 762 with men on vs 691 when bases empty.  Seems they were your classic 'clutch' team.
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christaylor - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:15 AM EDT (#310557) #
D. King -- I'm not sure what level you're at in terms of your statistics education but this .pdf might help to get you started on the path to methods that don't rely on the normality assumption:

http://www.psychology.mcmaster.ca/bennett/boot09/confInt.pdf

...of particular relevance is section 2.2 the percentile method. R code examples (worth learning if you are into stats) are included in the pdf.

I started on a little toy for implementing bootstrap methods for the 2013-2015 R/G data. It can be found at this github link:

https://github.com/hashtagcpt/boot_rpg

...word of warning it only gets to the point just before where the percentile method could be implemented. It is also 1am and poorly commented code. It requires MATLAB or its open-source cousin Octave to run.

From the way the toy is set up one could add code to calculate the percentile of each team in each year across your dataset without the normality assumption -- a lot of work to be sure, but I think you'd get a nice measure which you could say, "Team X is in the Nth percentile in the history of baseball".

Also, this approach needn't be limited to R/G -- I downloaded a bunch of other team data from bref and there's no reason why one couldn't look at that, to answer questions such as, "In what way are the great offenses in history great? Do different great offense get to great via different paths?"

Hope the pdf or code helps and/or is interesting to you. Interesting questions. I wish I had time for them and not in the academic grind.

I can be found on twitter @hashtagcpt if you're interested in any other pointers that could guide you to a method to do what you want to do not based on z-scores.
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whiterasta80 - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#310558) #
Christaylor,

I was actually referring to my nitpick of philadelphia vs oakland athletics.

The distribution is in fact an excellent point although I agree with John that it is likely to be a normal distribution intuitively.

It wouldn't actually be difficult to test the distribution on the data although with the small-ish numbers all he'd be able to say is that the data is "not, not normally distributed".
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#310559) #
There is no reason to believe that run scoring per team in a league is normally distributed for at least three reasons:

- individual offensive talent is definitely not normally distributed; it is much closer to the right-sided tail of the normal
- teams possess very large advantages in acquiring talent (to some extent mitigated by draft rules)
- the severely unbalanced schedule within leagues creates very different run-scoring environments for teams

So, what you get is seasons like 2014 AL with a significant right tail and no left tail.  In most seasons, the right tail is significantly longer and higher than the left.   So, for instance, in 2011,  with league average scoring of 4.46 runs, the three top teams (the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers) scored 5.40, 5.35, and 5.28, while the three lowest scoring teams (the Mariners, Twins and A's) scored 3.43, 3.82 and 3.98.   You could even look at scoring over a decade, and see the Yankees and Red Sox way out on the right end of the tail (see above for the reasons). 

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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#310560) #
John Lott has a great photo of Donaldson's dive on Flickr.  I couldn't tell that Donaldson had got the plate on the replay, but he did.
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Chuck - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#310561) #
I have often felt that run scoring follows a Poisson distribution. Did a google and found someone who makes such an argument.
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#310562) #
Season-long statistics do not do full justice to this club.  The arrivals of Tulowitzki, Price, and Revere, along with Goins replacing Travis, resulted (obviously) to a significant change in its run prevention abilities.  Since August 1 (29 games), they have scored 180 runs and allowed 87.  It's almost exactly a 6-3 game on average.  It is totally consistent with a 23-6 record.   There are 29 games left in the season...

Gibbons says that his main worry now is what to eat for breakfast.  My advice: omelets are fine but pair 'em with whole grain bread. 

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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#310563) #
Stroman coming back has brought up a lot of talk about what the rotation should be going forward, both in the next 30 days as well as any postseason. It does seem pretty clear if we get to a playoff series it will be a 4 man rotation.

The problem I see is I think the difference between what the best rotation is and rewarding them for this year's performance. Price is clearly the constant between the two, but after that I fear they will choose to start Buerhle, Dickey and Estrada over Stroman, Hutchison and one of Dickey/Buerhle. Estrada has had some good results, but he's also had a lot of luck on fly balls and lately we've seen more of those leave the ballpark. I would not want to start him against teams like the Astros or Yankees.

I also think they could split the two and go Price, Stroman, Dickey, Buerhle with Estrada/Hutch as long men. I'd be okay with that.
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#310564) #
That link wouldn't work for me, Chuck, but this one uses a modified Poisson. I'd have to spend many hours to figure out whether it actually works.
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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#310565) #
Kasi - i would be shocked if we saw anything other than a Price-Stroman-Buehrle-Dickey rotation come playoffs. Estrada
and Hutch both have arguments to be there but i don't think they're strong enough to unseat those 4.
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#310566) #
Yeah I agree that makes the most sense. I think a Price/Dickey/Stroman/Hutch rotation might be the strongest, when you take into account the quality of Stroman and Hutch and the Dickey effect.

Buerhle right now is tired and struggling and Estrada I think has been very lucky (as much or even more so than Hutch has been unlucky). But at the same time they're going to reward their vets, even if it isn't the best so yeah both Buerhle and Dickey will start I think.

Was just annoyed listened to Phillips this morning on 1050 talking about how Stroman must be protected and is a reinjury risk etc and how Estrada is such a lock for the number 2 starter spot. Of course Phillips was awful on ESPN and a bad GM, so I shouldn't be too annoyed. But I want the rotation in the postseason and down the stretch to be the best it can be, not just rewarding vets or giving too much over to small sample sizes.

I just don't want the playoff rotation to be Price, Estrada, Buerhle, Dickey. That has too high of a chance of one good Price start followed by several sub 6 IP, 4-6 ER starts from the other three.
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hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#310567) #
A rather interesting read on the hiring of Shapiro, though the interesting part isn't Shapiro, but the alleged/supposed machinations of Rogers. Seems to be plenty of discussion -worthy material.

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/blue-jays-mark-shapiro-president-paul-beeston/
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#310568) #
One good thing though is that the rest of the AL is not exactly stacked as far as rotations go. Honestly I'd be most afraid of the Yankees 4 since they can run out Tanaka, Severino, Evoldi and Pineda. Houston is good but it's lefty heavy which helps.

Royals have a worse rotation than we do and Angels and Rangers aren't exactly great either. Cleveland with Carrasco back would be extremely scary, but they're probably too far behind now to make it. I expect the Rangers to take the second wild card spot now.
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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#310569) #
Kasi, my helpful tip is this: never, ever listen to sports talk radio. ever. it only makes one dumber and angrier. there is zero insight to glean from it.

i gave up sports talk radio over a decade ago, and don't even consider listening to it, even though i'm a sports junkie.

there are far too many places you can go for informative knowledgeable sportstalk on the internet - like our battersbox.ca - than to ever have any reason to listen to AM radio.
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#310570) #
Sports radio is fine for the interview with experts portion I think. It's just who you listen to there. I really like listening to Keith Law and Jonah Keri when they have segments there since I value their opinions. They've also had guys like Heyman and others lately who are good. But there are a number of people out there who you have to filter out their opinion. Phillips is one. Jim Bowden who does a lot of articles on ESPN is another.
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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#310571) #
those guys have so much online stuff written and podcasted that waiting through hours of crap for 5 minutes with them just isn't worth it.

i wish i could convince more sports fans to give up talk radio. you won't miss it i promise.
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cruzin - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#310572) #
I think the idea of Stroman being in the post season rotation is a bit premature. When Stroman finishes his rehab in Buffalo and Gibbons makes his decision on slotting Stroman in either as a starter or reliever will show which way the team is leaning.

Now if the team decides for go with a 6 man rotation down the stretch, then we're left with guesswork. The potential starters for a series may even be dependent on the opponent. Nonetheless, with Stroman entering the picture, it's a good problem to have
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#310573) #
Well I'm in Texas and don't have cable. So no espn, no MLB network. All I have is my MLB subscription and the internet. So yeah to get Jays focused coverage I do listen to some segments on 1050 as well as sites like here and Bluebird Banter and such.
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hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#310574) #
What's amazing about the Jays rotation is Sanchez I believe is the only member to hit the DL or even have to miss a start. Not one arm or shoulder issue.
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Chuck - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#310575) #
Not one arm or shoulder issue.

The baseball gods just love hubris.

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John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#310576) #
Fun on September 3rd to speculate about playoff rotations for the Jays.  Been awhile. 

Dead on locks...
David Price - duh.
R.A. Dickey - 2.78 ERA in the 2nd half so far
Mark Buehrle - despite recent struggles 3.99 ERA in 2nd half. Can count on 6+ IP from him good #3 or #4 in playoffs

The contenders for #4
Marco Estrada - 2.60 ERA in 2nd half so far, hard to ignore
Drew Hutchison - 5-0 with a 3.76 ERA in the 2nd half, Jack Morris? :)
Marcus Stroman - needs to show he can be effective in the majors.

If any of the top 3 were skipped I'd be very, very shocked.  Estrada certainly is making a case as is Hutch - in the old days Hutch would be a lock due to W-L.  Stroman is no lock - he has to show he can be effective in the majors again.

Estrada is setting himself up for a sweet contract this winter isn't he?

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hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#310577) #
"The baseball gods just love hubris."

Pride goeth before the fall classic?
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Chuck - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#310578) #
Can count on 6+ IP from him

I think the regular season strategy of how to deal with starting pitchers goes out the window in the playoffs. If guys falter early, you yank 'em early for one of the idle starting pitchers, effectively doing the tandem thing (e.g., Stroman falls apart in the 3rd, Estrada replaces him).

And with guys like Dickey and Buerhle, if they have given you 6 (or even 5 in an NL park with their batting spots due up), maybe you don't get greedy and ask for more and instead just flip it over to the bullpen. The bullpen will be well stocked and there will be plenty of off-days. Bullpen management should look very different in the post-season. Effective relievers should pitch proportionately more than they'd pitch in the regular season. Just check out how many times Mariano Rivera pitched 5+ innings in a playoff series.

And with David Price doing his best MadBum impression, nothing but joy and happiness will ensue.

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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#310579) #
Well it depends on what the criteria is for starting. If Stroman is healthy and as effective as last year it can be argued he is the best starting pitcher on the roster, even with Price around. At least he'd be 1b to Price's 1a. So if he is healthy and effective putting him in the bullpen would waste one of our best pitchers on a minimal role. We already have a bunch of RHP in the bullpen capable of shutting down a team.

Similar arguments work for the remaining regular season. Are we going to see a six man rotation? I think Stroman needs to start the rest of the way to see what we have for the playoffs, given his immense upside.
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John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#310580) #
Agreed.  Those of us old enough to remember can recall how Bobby Cox was killed in the ALCS in 1985 because he kept following his regular season rules while the Royals didn't.  Years later Cito Gaston figured it out and thus the 92/93 WS titles.  In 1992 game 2 he used pinch hitters 3 times (I don't think that ever happened in the regular season) pulling that years David Price - David Cone after just 4 1/3 IP. then using 4 relievers 1 inning each (David Wells for 1 2/3) again not his usual MO.  Game 3 also saw a pinch hitter. with Duane Ward closing instead of Tom Henke.  The final game saw Jimmy Key in relief
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Jonny German - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#310581) #
Tanaka, Severino, Evoldi and Pineda.

Gimpy, Junior, Flukey, and Ouchy. No problem.
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#310582) #
I think the regular season strategy of how to deal with starting pitchers goes out the window in the playoffs. If guys falter early, you yank 'em early

Exactly. "Yank" might be unnecessarily pejorative at this moment! How about "apologetically take the ball from"?
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AWeb - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#310583) #
The rotation must depend on who the opponent is, right? We've seen certain starters lined up to face or avoid the Yankees, for instance. Buerhle destroys a running game as well, if that looks like a major factor.

One issue with Buerhle and Dickey - neither would seem to be must of a bullpen option, aside from mop-up innings. Although it would be awesome if reliever Buerhle suddenly came out throwing 95mph.
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#310584) #
The guys can implode for sure Jonny, but at the same time people have been saying Tanaka would implode for months and he keeps being effective. And Severino is a very good pitcher. Eovaldi may be a fluke (I don't think he is) but he is a fluke who throws a 97 mph fastball. I'd feel very nervous in a series against them if they run those four and we run Price, Estrada, Dickey and Buerhle.
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Chuck - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#310585) #
Price, Estrada, Dickey and Buerhle

At the Yankees version of this site, someone is looking at those four names and saying: Chokey, Flukey, Grandpa, Grandpa's Younger Brother.

Cuts both ways.

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Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#310586) #
The whole object of stretching Stroman out was the Jays needed to know what they have, without question, for 2016. Or would they still have questions around how well he's healed, etc., etc., while they were assembling the 2016 Roster.

Since the end of July,this most amazing turnaround has occurred with this team. The most interest change has become the win now attitude that everyone, from the very top of Rogers on down to the Call-ups, now has. The Goal is the World Series, I don't think any thing else matters. Relentless.

If Stroman succeeds in his AAA trial then he should pitch in New York on the 12th. This will be the toughest test he could face, not in the Postseason. The Jays will know what they have for 2016, and they'll know quickly whether he's a Starter in the Postseason.

The A.L. East is a 1.5 game spread so an extreme amount of attention will focused here. While Houston falls, Texas has surged and only 2.0 games separate them from the A.L. West title. Right now only a surprising Minnesota is challenging for a Wild Card berth just one game back. I think one Race can be called: Kansas City Royals win A.L. Central.

In the National League, the Races are basically done unless a Team gets as hot as or hotter than Toronto. Without that happening soon, it will not matter. So far no one who has a chance has done anything at all. I think it can be called: New York Mets win N.L. East. St. Louis Cardinals win A.L. Central. Los Angeles Dodgers win N.L. West. Pittsburgh hosts the Wild Card game verses the Chicago Cubs.
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christaylor - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#310587) #
Did you miss Wednesday's with JP? Sport talk radio can have its moments, in that case, divine comedy (Dante reference intended).

I'm also not a regular listener anymore after living in England and with the rise in podcasting (although the best shows seem to be disappearing, such as Baseball Today and Effectively Wild) .

That said, I tune into WEEI every so often these days, hearing the Sox fans complain here is just music to my ears.
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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#310588) #
Yeah Aweb i agree with that - buehrle and dickey aren't really guys you would think would thrive in relief.

meanwhile, estrada has already shown he's a pretty good reliever while hutch could easily thrive in the bullpen - he could likely get his velo up consistently above 95 and paired with just his slider he could be pretty devestating in short relief imo.
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99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#310589) #
Someone else has taken a stab at this. I thought the following article would prove useful:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Torontobluejays/comments/3i80es/case_can_be_made_for_blue_jays_having_best_al/
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Jonny German - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#310590) #
Cuts both ways.

It's trash talk bro. Not heavy philosophy.
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Parker - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#310591) #
#5 - 2006 New York Yankees (2.21 standard deviations above the mean)
#4 - 1965 Minnesota Twins (2.23)
#3 - 1914 Oakland Athletics (2.30)
#2 - 2007 New York Yankees (2.44)
#1 - 2015 Toronto Blue Jays (2.83)(!!!)

The more I look at this the more impressed with it I am. In total there have been 16 teams in 114 seasons that have exceeded the A.L. average by more than two standard deviations, and this year's Jays exceed it by 2.83! Historically good, indeed.
Thanks for crunching those numbers, D King.

Your results confirm that the Jays aren't just leading the league in scoring, they're running farther ahead of the field than any team in MLB history. It's a really fascinating case statistically, but even more than that, it's wicked awesome fun to watch as a fan.
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#310592) #
Incidentally, the 1914 Athletics were Connie Mack's club in Philadelphia.  Eddie Collins, Home Run Baker, Wally Schang and Stuffy McInnis were the hitting stars. 
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vw_fan17 - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#310593) #
Regarding post-season rotation:
-Assuming recent/2nd half performances by the rotation continue more or less as now (i.e. no one has 3 horrible starts in a row, throws out an elbow/shoulder/etc)

-if by some fluke we only get a wild-card, obviously, Price starts if at all possible. If not, hard to say exactly who. Price takes his regular turn in the rotation as 1/4, although obviously it may not mean he pitches in the first game, depending on he last pitched.

-I would find it really, really hard to skip Dickey or Buehrle, 1st time through. Dickey, because, AFAICT, he's never pitched in the post-season. And now, you're going to not let him start at least one game, when he's near the end of his career and having a great 2nd half, as usual? Buehrle is the guy who's been there, done that, and hasn't complained for 3 years, pitching without his family, etc.. I think they both get at least 1 start.

-to me, the big discussion would be Estrada vs. Stroman. Can you really count on Stroman after a few games back? Or Estrada, when he's already passed (assuming 3-4 more starts) his previous max IP totals by 10-15 IP? Flip a coin? Make them tandem starters? The loser here should be ready in case Dickey/Buehrle falter.

-for a home game, if needed, Hutch could be used. On the road, I don't think you even contemplate it, this year. He's young, he'll be back. Let him mop up an inning or two here or there to get his feet wet with post-season action, and go from there. Unless you're up against Greinke, maybe. Hutch for 2-3, pinch-hit, Stroman for 2-3, pinch-hit, etc..

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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#310594) #
I just don't like that the choice on playoff rotation starters should be to reward vets. It should be to put the best team out there with the best chance to win the world series. If Stroman is one of the 4 best options, he should be in the rotation, no matter if Buerhle or Estrada gets slighted a bit.

And Estrada is a great story, but his fip and xfip are not in line with his era. He's been very lucky, and I'm not sure I'd want to bet on that luck continuing in the post season.
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electric carrot - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#310595) #
At the moment I like: Price, Stroman, Dickey and then Hutch but only at home. But I reserve the right to change my mind. I could care less who deserves it -- let's go with who is going to help us win.

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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#310596) #
Yeah I'm with you. Lets say we go with whom deserves it. That could easily have us losing in the Divisional 3-1. I don't expect smoke and mirrors to be as effective when we're playing teams like the Yankees, Astros and Royals. I do however like using Dickey as the 2 since an effective Dickey is very good and there is the effect he has on batters for future games which has been proven.
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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#310597) #
it's not so much about who.deserves it.....more like - who can you trust?
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#310598) #
Price - likely most reliable guy we have, although he's not had great post season success.

Hutchison - Crapshot, can be great but who knows what we're going to get. I'm sure he's in the bullpen.

That's the easy answers.

Dickey - Definitely has a negative effect on opponent hitters for future games, but game to game he's a crapshot. If he plays like last night he's our most valuable pitcher when you add in the Dickey effect. When not its like the first inning against Texas. He could lose us a game before we ever get to bat if we're facing a strong starter.

Buerhle - Has less chance of going deep like Dickey, but probably less of a blow up chance too.

Estrada - Smoke and mirrors. His peripherals are no better than last year when he gave up 29 HRs. I wouldn't trust him in a fly ball park in the playoffs.

Stroman - Has the best stuff on our staff. Last year's numbers were awesome. If he can get back to that well we'd all take him. Lack of trust coming off an injury and only being in second year is a point, but stuff wise he's the best we have.

Knowing all that I think its easy to take Price, Dickey, Stroman, Beurhle.
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Intricated - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#310599) #
Off-day content: Guy who's biking to all 30 ballparks to raise money for charity stopped in Toronto recently and LaTroy continues to be that Cool Dad (Grandpa?):
After the game, I anticipated heading back to the home, getting to aroud 11:00 and then arising early to take off for Detroit in the morning. Before I knew it, those plans changed quickly. LaTroy Hawkins the oldest player in the MLB, a 21 year veteran of the league and has played for 11 teams, reached out to me via twitter after the game and invited me out to dinner. Uhhhh yes! I’m in!
https://www.bikingforbaseball.org/back-in-the-u-s-of-a/
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christaylor - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#310600) #
This Stroman talk reads a little whacky to me. Let's see how he fares, I suspect pitching for the Jays in September 2014 is a vastly different experience than in September 2015.

I want him to pick up where he left off as much as the next fan but it is seems improbable... but you never know.
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#310601) #
Sure it's different, but an effective Stroman takes us from having an average playoff rotation to a pretty good one. Otherwise our 2-4 are two guys at the end of their careers and a journeyman. It's like we're at the trade deadline again with a chance to get an ace, but all we have to do is to give him a chance to show what he showed last year. Just look at the fangraphs article from early this year to see his upside.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stromans-absurd-set-of-pitch-comps/
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scottt - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#310602) #
I don't expect smoke and mirrors to be as effective when we're playing teams like the Yankees, Astros and Royals.

ERA of 3.18 against the Yankees in 17 innings.
ERA of 2,92 against the Royals in 12.1 innings.
ERA of 3.60 against the Astros in 5 innings.

I don't see the problem. In fact he got owned by the Mariners. and the Red Sox.
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scottt - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#310603) #
The biggest split with Estrada is with his catcher.

Navarro ERA 2.44, OBP .248 OPS .583, BABIP .190
Martin    ERA 4.22, OBP .307 OPS .710, BABIP  .280

I don't think Navarro will start a playoff game, but it's not impossible.

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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#310604) #
ERA is not terribly predictive of future performance. He is still an extreme fly ball pitcher who is having a LOB% 5 percent higher than his career average and has managed to have a HR/FB ratio of 8% this year instead of his career 11%. His Sierra is bad, his xFip is bad, his K/BB is a career low. Basically all his predictive stats are bad (and this speaks against wasting any money resigning him for his performance this year)

So you can believe the ERA saying that stranding far more people and suppressing home runs is some new skill he's developed, or you can look at all his other stats and say we're lucky to have gotten what we've gotten from him but lets not tempt fate when we have a guy like Stroman on the team.
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BlueJayWay - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#310605) #
Can a catcher really influence much the babip against a pitcher though? The .190 to .280 difference would account for the other numbers.
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#310606) #
Yeah forgot to mention the babip. .229 this year, .266 career. It's remarkable how lucky he's been.
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JB21 - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#310607) #
Thx for sharing Intricated!
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Mike Green - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#310608) #
Estrada is a fascinating case.  He's a fly ball pitcher and has always had a low BABIP.  He's done a number of things somewhat differently this year (courtesy of Fangraphs):
  • his K rate is significantly down
  • his W rate is significantly up
  • his HR/FB rate is significantly down
  • his line drive rate is significantly down
  • he's had fewer balls pulled and fewer balls hit hard

According to FIP and xFIP, he's a worse pitcher than he was in 2011-13, and if you fully buy DIPS theory, he has been.  I'm not sure I do in his case.  It is well known that some pitchers (knuckleballers for instance) do better than FIP and xFIP routinely, and the batted ball data does provide a pretty good explanation for his low BABIP.  It looks to me like he is picking his spots a little more, trying more for weak contact rather than swing and miss.  His contact rate on pitches outside the zone is significantly higher. 

On the other hand, the batted-ball distance data (from Hit Tracker) is a bit worrying. He's given up 17 homers in 2015 with an average standard distance of 402 feet and a speed off bat of 104 mph.  There have been 5 "just enoughs" and 4 "no-doubters".  In 2014, he gave 27 homers, with an average batted-ball distance of 390 feet and a speed off bat of 103 mph.  Eleven of the homers were "just-enoughs" and eight were "no-doubters".

On balance, I'd go back to Estrada's career record.  He has a career ERA as a starter of 4.00 with FIP and xFIP that are consistent with that.  He might do a little better than that with the current defence behind him, and he might be a little better. I see little reason to believe that he is significantly different in ability than Buehrle or Dickey.  Or , for that matter, Hutchison.

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scottt - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#310609) #
Fangraph says Estrada started using a cutter (8%) that he mixes with his fastball (52%), changeup (29%) and his curve (11%).

Buehrle mixes up a 4-seamer (28%), a 2-seamer (25%), a cutter (16%), changeup (22%) and curve (8%).

While Hutchison is 4-seamer (66%), slider (23%) and changeup (12%).

It's weird how Hutch has reverse split with that arsenal, but he seems to throw the slider with more drop against lefties, and more control against righties.



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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#310610) #
i wonder if we can find a narrative in marco's monthly splits as SP.

MAY: .284babip, 12.2hr/fb%, 5.02era, 4.91fip, 4.72xfip, 4.48siera
JUN: .222babip, 7.8hr/fb%, 3.25era, 3.94fip, 4.55xfip, 4.28siera
JUL: .284babip, 1.9hr/fb%, 3.38era, 3.03fip, 5.16xfip, 5.21siera
AUG: .165babip, 8.3hr/fb%, 2.05era, 4.44fip, 5.02xfip, 4.71siera

I think the pure consistency of the terribleness of his xfip and siera tells the tale of his season.

he's had one month with a normal babip and hr%, and that gave him a terrible era and fip to match.

in the 3 months since, 2 of them have had a ridiculously low babip and the other a ridiculously low hr%.

this seems like a textbook case of fluke, and imo he's a ticking time bomb.
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ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#310611) #
I don't think it's improbable that Marcus Stroman comes back as a starter and is very effective this month. He has worked tremendously hard in rehab and is determined to be a part of the team, and I really think he will succeed. I don't like to speculate on playoff rotations until we actually get there, but I predict if we do that Stroman will be one of the starters.
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Kasi - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#310612) #
Yup I agree. There is no way he should be in there in the postseason if Stroman is okay. I even prefer the late performance of Hutchison but I can see how people would prefer Estrada. Anyway I don't think pitchers have very much control over their babip other than by ground/fly ratios which haven't changed for him.
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Intricated - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#310613) #
Estrada 2015 vs. HOU/KC/NYY:
GS | IP   | W | L | ERA  | AVG  | OBP  | SLG  | OPS  | HR | SO | BB | WHIP | SO9 | BB9 | SO/BB | BABIP | FIP
6  | 34.3 | 2 | 3 | 3.15 | .223 | .294 | .369 | .663 | 4  | 25 | 11 | 1.17 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.3   | 0.245 | 5.08
Also 3/3 in bags swipe attempts, includes 2 HBP, add 2 wild pitches.  Hrm.
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John Northey - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#310614) #
Looking at the details of Estrada's stats suggests not to sign him this offseason.  Do you make him a qualifying offer of around $15 mil?  I figure only if someone signs him before it has to be made. Someone will offer him 3/$30 I'm sure as the surface numbers suggest a strong #3, weak #2 this year when in truth he is a #5/6 guy.  Fangraphs which uses FIP to decide WAR afaik has Estrada at 1.6 WAR this year, $12.9 mil.  He was similar in 2012/2013 so a one year $15 mil isn't silly so the Jays might do the offer and hope he signs elsewhere.

Buehrle is barely any better at 1.8 fWAR worth around $14.7 mil so far.  Easy QO here.

Price as a Jay is already at 1.6 fWAR, overall 5.2 worth $41 mil+.  So a $30 mil deal isn't insane as for 5 straight years he has been worth $30+ a year according to FanGraphs.  But do you break the Jays golden rule and go to 7 years?

The guys who are Jays property unless traded/released are Hutchison (2.3 fWAR), Dickey (1.5), Sanchez (0.2), Osuna (1.6),  and Stroman.  Lets hope the Jays keep Buehrle or Price (ideally Price).

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Intricated - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#310615) #
Er, SO9 and BB9 should actually be 6.6 and 2.9, respectively.
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hypobole - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#310616) #
Pitchers may not have much control over their babip, but fielders do. Jays have plus defenders up the middle, a plus 3rd baseman and plus LF. If Smoak is at 1st, the only below average position players are Bautista and Navarro.
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Intricated - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#310617) #
Bah, FIP should be 4.33.  Amateur Excel hour.

All told, he's definitely not the first starter you throw out there in a short loser-goes-home series, but he's a decent fallback choice should Buehrle's arm stays dead, Stroman runs out of gas, and/or it's an away game: (not) looking at you Hutch.
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uglyone - Thursday, September 03 2015 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#310618) #
I'm enjoying marco's run and he could easily carry it right through the playoffs. nothing says he won't. but the 2 no doubter HR last start make me think his luck may just be turning.

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Richard S.S. - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 05:33 AM EDT (#310619) #
Whether or not Qualifying Offers are made, $16.0 MM is a lot of money to turn down. Any Agent worth keeping will easily get his client another good contract after.
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BlueMonday - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#310620) #
Thanks Intricated, uglyzone, and scottt for the great stats on Estrada. As a very amatuer Exceler as well, I couldn't find BABIP data.  What's your source? Do you need a paid subscription and is it worth it?
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#310621) #
Fangraphs.com has all the data there and it's free.
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#310622) #
yeah use fangraphs.they even have a handy 'export data' button on every stats page.
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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#310624) #
FG also has Rest-Of-Season projections and have Estrada basically being a 3 ER/6 IP per game starter from now on. So the systems don't see him continuing his streak of apparent dominance, but those numbers don't scream "ticking time bomb" either.

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Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#310625) #
The rest of season projections are not very good.  They have Estrada with a BABIP of .295 the rest of the year.  He has a career BABIP of .266, much lower than league average. The Blue Jays have surrendered a BABIP of .283 this year, and league average is .295.  There is absolutely no reason to believe that he won't be as good as his career average in this department. 

Mind you, the Fangraphs projections for all Blue Jay pitchers are, at this point, not very thoughtful at all.  They show an average BABIP of .304.  With the current defence and league-wide trends, that number is probably off 25 points, at least. 

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Intricated - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#310626) #
I use Fangraphs or Baseball Reference, sometimes both combined (e.g. Fangraphs' game log has FIP by game, BBRef's has wild pitches).  For the Estrada stuff, I started with Baseball Reference's pitching splits for Estrada 2015, used the CSV function to copy/paste into Excel, and recalculated the rate/advanced stats for the relevant opponents.

Wish they had double/multiple splits handy though, e.g. Estrada's FB% as a starter vs. LH batters at home during day games.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#310627) #
For your Friday amusement, a significant other's perspective on romantic life with a sports fan.  Take-away: suggesting to a woman that she is like Jose Bautista (because she is intense, thoughtful and compassionate) is likely to lead to misunderstanding. 
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Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#310628) #
Thoughtful stuff from John Lott on Ryan Goins' improvement.
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vw_fan17 - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#310629) #
I get that Stroman had a good half-a-season last year, but without him throwing some good games out there, let's not write his name in with ink in the #2 spot just yet. Baseball is full of fluke half-seasons that were never duplicated again.

One thing that has not been mentioned: Stroman had significant home/road splits last year.
Home OPS (329 PA): 544 - awesome!
Road OPS (205 PA): 779 - not so great..

Oh, but, wait. Home is not home anymore - the turf in the RC has totally changed to be more like grass (slower). Stroman's OPS on grass last year (180 PA - guess he faced 25 batters in Tampa): 798.

Now, does that mean he got mainly road starts early on, and then mostly home starts, when he got better? Or is he Hutchison-lite? Those are NOT insignificant splits. And if the RC is playing more like grass now, which has probably helped some of the other pitchers, maybe it's hurt him in some way? It's quite possible he does NOT go out there and put up an OPS (against) of 544 again in the RC, but 750+.

All I'm saying is - he's gotta earn it. If he throws 3 games down the stretch with an ERA/FIP/xFIP/whatever of ~2.8 and WHIP 1.0x, sure, put him in the rotation. If he has an ERA/whatever  of ~4.5+ and WHIP of 1.3x, he doesn't "earn" the spot based on a good 2nd half last season and fangraphs gushing.

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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#310630) #
I tend to agree with you Mike on Estrada's ROS projections. And yes those systems aren't thoughtful on an individualized level, they're simply formulaic.

That said, even those probably overly pessimistic systems don't see the collapse of Estrada some here are predicting.

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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#310631) #
A rather interesting ESPN Insider article from Buster Olney today.

Of the 30 hitters who've had the highest % of out of zone pitches called strikes, only Addison Russell (#28) bats exclusively right. Nick Markakis is #1 at 14.1%, Ben Revere #5 at 13.3%, Jose Reyes #12 at 11.6 %. (Side note - 4 Yankees - McCann, Headley, Beltran, Gardner are in the top 22 - seems to reaffirm the FG numbers posted about a week ago.)

For sheer volume, Matt Carpenter has had 139 balls called strikes. The most for a RHB is Bautista's 82 which is tied for 21st.

Overall, RHB's get 7.7% of balls called strikes, LHB's 9.9%.

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=11102
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#310632) #
hypobole,,imo a 4.5+ era/fip IS a bomb. that is a pitcher you want replaced in your regular rotation - and most definitely do not want in your playoff rotation.
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Chuck - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#310633) #
Overall, RHB's get 7.7% of balls called strikes, LHB's 9.9%.

Ah yes, the human element. Who'd want to get rid of all of this for boring, predictable robot umpires?

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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#310634) #
uglyone, your unique projection system has him at 4.5+ ERA, all others at FG have him between 4.41 and 4.43.

Do I want him making a playoff start? Not really. Do I give him a QO? No.

On the other hand, neither Beuhrle or Dickey fare much better for ROS - all 3 are projected as worse than league average SP's. Then there's Hutch who's in his 3rd season of doing a Ricky Nolasco impersonation.
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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#310635) #
Chuck, I would guess most control pitchers and pitch-framing catchers are quite satisfied with the status quo. Also the Umpire's Union. :)
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#310636) #
"I get that Stroman had a good half-a-season last year, but without him throwing some good games out there, let's not write his name in with ink in the #2 spot just yet. Baseball is full of fluke half-seasons that were never duplicated again. "

but do you get that his season last year wasn't just a good one, but a great one? and that it followed from a great milb career? and that it came from one of the best arsenals of pitches in all mlb? and that the only reason stroman wasn't considered an elite prospect is because he is short?

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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#310637) #
OPS is not a very good predictor vw_fan. Lets look at babip and see if that tells us something. Home babip of .263 and LOB% of 72. Away? .376 and 64.5%. I doubt the playing surface has that big an impact on those stats.

Even with last year in how he "struggled" on the road, his FIP for road starts was a very solid 3.31. That's considerably better than anyone on the staff with the exception of Price.

The reason we're excited about Stroman is the combination of stuff and the results he got last year. Not to mention him being an exciting outgoing guy makes us want to root for him. He had an ERA of 3.63 last year, but his underlying numbers (poor strand/babip for example) show him as someone who was actually fairly unlucky. He has the tools to be a dominant pitcher, something that Buerhle at this point of his career and Estrada could never hope to be.

From the article of Sullivan's I posted yesterday, his sinker compares with Halladays, his four seamer with Cueto and his curve with Jose Fernandez. That is why he's worth pushing. Because if he's on, he's an ace. And having 2 aces is much better than one.
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#310638) #
picking nits doesn’t make me feel any better. the projected 4.42era/4.59fip is very bad, and not something you want in your rotation.
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#310639) #
and if estrada had Buehrle's and dickey's history, i'd feel much better about him.

although even with their history i worry about buehrle and dickey.
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cruzin - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#310640) #
"and that it followed from a great milb career?"

Now 1.5 years in the minors equals a great milb career? You can certainly debate your other points, but 1.5 years doesn't equate to anything close to a career in the minors.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#310641) #
Well I imagine one would add his college stats from Duke into there. I'm not sure what level most would put a top college school at, but probably somewhere around single A level. And he had two great years at Duke before being drafted. And if he was a 6'4" guy and put up those numbers, he likely would have been a top 5 pick.
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#310643) #
yeah i'm not going to hold it against him that he didn't stay longer in the minors.


maybe i can phrase it differently.....

"Stroman has dominated every level he's ever played at, including mlb, and has done it with one of the best arsenals of pitches in all baseball."
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cruzin - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#310644) #
Not going to disagree with either of you, that Stroman has the potential to make a impact and could be the difference maker. But the flip side is that there are valid questions are whether he is truly ready enough to displace any of the current starters for the regular season and playoffs.

Nothing wrong with the wait and see approach that some are advocating versus others that are ready to anoint him ready to go and be the 2nd ACE this season.
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uglyone - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#310645) #
All Stroman's Numbers:

Pro (21-24): 313.2ip, 9.4k/9, 2.2bb/9, 0.6hr/9, 3.36era, 2.88fip
AM (19-21): 220.0ip, 11.9k/9, 2.9bb/9, 0.5hr/9, 3.27era

(MLB as SP: 120.1ip, 7.7k/9, 2.0bb/9, 0.5hr/9,
3.29era, 2.79fip)
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#310646) #
The wait and see approach could cost us very badly though. Yes there is a chance he blows up (although given his recovery so far this year and what he did last year I consider it fairly unlikely, but it could happen) but it's not like we're sending aces out there after we get past Price.

Our rotation right now is a number 1 and 4 4s/5s. You might be able to stretch it to say Dickey is a weak 3 because of the Dickey effect. Even if Stroman is not an ace like last year but is a 3, that still makes him the second best pitcher on this staff. Whether the series is the AL Divisional or one of the upcoming Yankee series I feel very uncertain about running our current rotation out there once we get past Price. (and the Yankees top 4 in Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi and Severino is very good, as is Houston's top 4) Sure we can outscore the other teams, but I'd like to have a better chance by keeping the runs down.
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vw_fan17 - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#310647) #
but do you get that his season last year wasn't just a good one, but a great one? and that it followed from a great milb career? and that it came from one of the best arsenals of pitches in all mlb? and that the only reason stroman wasn't considered an elite prospect is because he is short?

Maybe his 2nd half was "great". Overall, ERA+ of 105 is not "great" in my books. Yeah, I know, FIP says he SHOULD have done better. And Pythagoras says we should be #1 in the league at this point, ahead of the Cardinals and tuning up for October, when we're hanging tough and up by 1.5, and still not out of the woods by any stretch.

I read the article on fangraphs earlier, and quickly scanned it again. Agreed - it PROMISES great things.

Look at his 5 top comparables on BBREF: 3 guys who played before WW2, 1 guy (Hillegas) who had a good rookie year, and then little to celebrate after that, and John Lackey, who had an ERA+ of 121 in his rookie year, then 95 and 95 before getting better again.

Stroman has been out all year. Dickey/Buerhle/Estrada have worked with Martin/Navarro all year and are in "mid-season" form. I'm not saying Stroman won't come back strong, but some here seem ready to put him into the #2 spot in the playoff rotation based on "stuff" and future promise, rather than current performance. Ricky Romero had a GREAT season in 2011 (ERA+ of 146), and fell apart the next year.

There's a reason why many future star players have been traded for "veteran having a good/great year RIGHT NOW" for a playoff run.

All I'm saying is: let's wait and see if he actually looks like (and pitches like) the player from last year's 2nd half, before we kick out one of the guys who got us to this point. I'm cautiously optimistic that he's recovered well, but not near sold on the idea yet.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#310648) #
Because if you blindly just put those guys out there (all of whom are very capable of having bad starts) you win game one of the divisional and then lose the next 3 when all 3 guys give up 4-5 ERs. All the while your opponents are pitching guys like Severino, McHugh and so on who are actually good pitchers, not just old guys at the end of their careers or medicore players who are running on borrowed time with unsustainable peripherals.

Pitching does win in the post season as generally star pitchers shut down lineups and the increased time off gives more time to do things like use the bullpen to shorten games (like the Royals). I have no confidence collectively in our group of current number 4 starters to shut down top offenses in the playoffs. And if we get to the 6th or 7th down to a team with bullpens like the Yankees or Royals I don't think we'll win most of those games, great offense or not.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#310649) #
Romero's great 2011 season btw was extremely lucky. Despite his sub 3 ERA, his FIP and other stats painted a guy who was already in trouble. He only ever beat a 4 FIP in his career once. A .242 babip and 79% strand rate was never going to hold. I think people are paying way too much attention to counting stats, and not looking at the underlying stats that show relative strengths of different pitchers. Romero was a number 4 who for a year and a half got lucky and looked like a number 2. His numbers were never even close to what Stroman achieved last year.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#310650) #
I'm really excited to see what Stroman has done with his changeup. Apparently he's worked on it a lot this year, and last year it was basically not a pitch. Crazy if he could get to six effective pitches.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/62521/the-amazing-return-of-marcus-stroman
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cruzin - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#310651) #
"The wait and see approach could cost us very badly though

How?!

If the Blue Jays want to consider him for the post season. They will put Stroman in the rotation for the stretch run. If he dominates those starts that you are expecting him to, then I think it's a no brainer. But if he doesn't and shows some rust you go with the best 4 you have performing at that point. Just because you like Stroman's potential and last season's performance doesn't make it a slam dunk that he'll just continue from where he left off last year.

Yes I understand that Dickey and his knuckler doesn't exude confidence. And then you follow that up with some soft tossers that rely on location and changing speeds rather than the "stuff" that Stroman has, I can understand the concern. But as much as I like "stuff" and potential I would like to see who is performing at the end of the season. Case in point if Estrada continues throwing up 1 or 2 runs a game from here until the end of the regular season and Stroman/Hutch underperform, I think you have to go with Estrada regardless of what the predictors say about him being lucky. Many times it's better to be lucky than good.
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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#310652) #
As far as how Stroman fits into the rotation, 2 things will assuredly happen.

1 - Jays will do something.

2 - Some of us will complain about whatever they do.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#310654) #
Because if we do what people like Griffin says they want to put him in the bullpen in middle relief which minimizes his value. I'd love for him to come in the third inning to try to mitigate a blown start by one of our number 4s. We have a ton of high 90s, strike throwing, effective RHP in the bullpen. Adding Stroman does what there really?

Some people in the media are stating that they don't even want to give Stroman the chance in the next month to prove his value. That going with the proven trio of Estrada, Dickey and Buerhle is what we should do. All they see is that Estrada goes out there and throws a 6 IP, 2 ER start and see that as his value. Not that he's surviving by having ridiculous luck on strand rate, on balls in play and in suppressing his hrs on fly balls.

As for lucky vs good I'm the total opposite. At the end of the day skill and talent is what matters. Luck only works til you're not lucky anymore. Skill and talent mitigates luck.

The reason it could cost us badly is because we could put out a team thats not our best and be happy with an ace and a bunch of number 4s. Adding a 1b/2 to the mix makes the team better. Imagine we lose a game one with Price pitching. We know he can't play til game 4 and likely not til game 5 on full rest. Are you going to feel confident knowing our next three pitchers going are Dickey, Buerhle and Estrada?

That's what Stroman brings us. If he shows in the next month he's not that then sure, but the upside of that is so high. It's like we pulled off a trade at the deadline again, but we just have to give the guy a chance.
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cruzin - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#310655) #
"Are you going to feel confident knowing our next three pitchers going are Dickey, Buerhle and Estrada?"

If Dickey and Estrada keep pitching the way they have since the all-star break, then yeah I feel confident with them. I'll take the pitchers who are performing over the pitchers with upside at this point in the season and the playoffs.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#310656) #
I would not. You want to pitch Beurhle in Yankee stadium? They already shy away from pitching him there. You want to pitch Estrada (60+ % flyball rate) against the Yankees and Astros, both teams with big home run hitters? Ugh I wouldn't. I want the best team out there. It's very much likely that the best team has Stroman there. The other guys haven't proved much other than they can be number 4s.
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Jonny German - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#310657) #
How about balancing the hand-wringing over the rotation with a look at how the foundation of the Yankees offence is 3 very improbable performances from 3 very old hitters?
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jjdynomite - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#310658) #
Holy negativity, Batman. Sure having Stroman come back is a great *potential* option to have, but even if he himself doesn't succeed in the big league rotation over the next 3+ weeks, the team still must have been pretty effective to go 26-6 with Price and the pu pu platter of "number 4s/5s", as Kasi has beaten into our collective heads.

Less than a month ago the Jays beat the Spankies in Spankie stadium vs. three of their "Number 1s/2s" of Eovaldi, Nova and Tanaka. I guess that was a total fluke, just like Buehrle and Dickey are greybeards entering fluke territory, Hutchison is a fluke (well, at home in 2015) and Estrada is a statistical fluke in a contract year.

Last I checked, the Jays -- if they win the division -- will begin the ALDS at home, and if they win the ALCS against a team they have proven they can battle with (KCR) will then start the World Series at home. Stroman aside, these are good problems to have, and I have spent this whole comment not even talking about by far the best offense in baseball, whose centrepiece trade deadline acquisition is in an extended hitting slump.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#310659) #
Chris Colabello gets the start at first base tonight.  Goins bats 8th and Pillar bats 9th also; this has two advantages- Goins is probably a better hitter against RHPs at this point and you split up the LHHs.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#310660) #
Despite being old the Yankees are still the second best offensive team in the league, with a better back of the bullpen and a deeper starting rotation. Not to mention they have easier schedule the rest of the way since they have 18 home games left to our 12. (plus 4 out of the remaining 7 hth games in their park) I think our lineup is better and our defense is better but I wouldn't count them out at all. So don't count us winning the division that easily. They do have an easier path, despite us being the better team.

That's why its important to put your best guys out there, which makes me happy that Colabello is out there tonight with how poorly Smoak has looked. I think Chris is good enough at 1B (he's made some nice scoops there) that he should be out there, especially with how he makes our offense a lot more dynamic.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#310661) #
Jimenez has been a real nemesis over the years- current Blue Jay hitters are slashing .190/.290/.302 against him in 217 PAs.  Jose Bautista in particular has had a devil of a time against Jimenez. Ben Revere is the only guy who has hit him well. 
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christaylor - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#310662) #
1.5 games up and fretting about the potential playoff rotation - why? Oh, it was an off day.

Let's not count the Blue Jays before they've hatched.

If we make the playoffs, I don't think it is unlikely that Buehrle and Dickey will impress us. Both still have the ability to throw a gem any given night. Let's remember baseball isn't a game entirely about physical talent and this thread's golden boy even shows that -- his stature.

The next couple of teams will want to play spoiler, especially the O's, given the bits of history between the two teams recently.
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scottt - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#310664) #
The priority is to win the remaining games against the Yankees. Those games will probably cement the rotation one way or another.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#310666) #
Apropos of our discussion of BABIP, here's an interesting piece from the Hardball Times on BABIP in the RC with the new turf.
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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#310669) #
Funny fact.

We're complaining about Estrada's 4.84 xFIP.

Tigers, who were expected to contend, have already given 89 starts to pitchers with ERA's worse than Estrada's xFIP.
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hypobole - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#310670) #
The RC turf isn't actually new, IIRC. The shredded rubber was used to get another year of life out of the old turf, with new turf to be installed next year. Does play uniquely though.
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Magpie - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#310671) #
Skill and talent mitigates luck.

Over the next five years, probably. But not in a short series. And definitely not in a close game.
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#310672) #
Well sure variance aka luck is all what baseball is about. But luck isn't something you can rely on or attribute to a player. One day they're lucky and everything drops in, next day everything finds a glove. Just because you've flipped heads a bunch of times doesn't mean you'll keep flipping heads. So at the end of the day you just have to go with the best players.
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scottt - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#310674) #
Obviously, but are the best players the ones who are currently producing the best results or the ones with the highest potential done the line?
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Kasi - Friday, September 04 2015 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#310675) #
I don't think either of those answers is right, or at the least not everyone fits neatly in those buckets. Era is results driven, but it's shown to be a poor indicator of future results. We have enough stats out there that suppress the luck side of the equation and are predictive.

Potential to me is a different thing. There are players who have immense potential that just don't work out because they can't put it together. Like Halladays first season. Immense potential that he couldn't put together that year, but also clearly not someone you want to put out in a pennant race. Stroman is not this. He's an ace level talent on a staff that has too many 4s. If he is back to last seasons form (and it seems like he is) you play him because he's that much better. Same reason why Yankees are pitching Severino. He is one of their top pitchers no matter his age.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#310692) #
Kasi i disagree with you calling buehrle a #4. what he has done the last 2yrs is at least very good #3 stuff but is closer upper end #2 calibre stuff if you believe in his fip beating skills. Dickey is also closer to a #3.

and you are being far too generous to the yankees' SP imo.

2014-15 Average bwar/fwar per 32gs

Price 5.7 (61gs) ----- Pineda 4.8 (34gs)
Stroman 4.8 (20gs) --- Severino 5.3 (6gs)
Buehrle 3.3 (58gs) --- Tanaka 4.1 (40gs)
Dickey 2.2 (62gs) ---- Eovaldi 2.3 (59gs)
Hutchison 1.6 (58gs) - Sabathia 0.3 (32gs)
Estrada 1.6 (40gs) --- Nova 0.2 (16gs)

2015 only:

Price 6.6 (27gs) ----- Pineda 3.7 (21gs)
Stroman 0.0 (0gs) ---- Severino 5.3 (6gs)
Estrada 3.4 (22gs) --- Eovaldi 3.2 (26gs)
Buehrle 3.2 (26gs) --- Tanaka 2.9 (20gs)
Dickey 2.3 (28gs) ---- Nova 1.6 (12gs)
Hutchison 1.1 (26gs) - Sabathia 0.5 (24gs)
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uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#310695) #
"Maybe his 2nd half was "great". Overall, ERA+ of 105 is not "great" in my books. Yeah, I know, FIP says he SHOULD have done better. And Pythagoras says we should be #1 in the league at this point, ahead of the Cardinals and tuning up for October, when we're hanging tough and up by 1.5, and still not out of the woods by any stretch."

for me, i don't even consider his disastrous intro last year as a reliever. imo that has nothing to do with hus actual performance.

here's some comps for first year performances as full time SP:

Stroman (23): 20gs, 6.0ip/gs, 84era-, 79fip-, 84xfip-
Sale (23): 29gs, 6.6ip/gs, 72era-, 76fip-, 78xfip-
Strasburg (23): 28gs, 5.6ip/gs, 80era-, 74fip-, 72xfip-
Syndergaard (22): 20gs, 6.1ip/ge, 89era-, 87fip-, 82xfip-
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Kasi - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#310702) #
Not sure where you're getting your numbers.

Let's just say 2015 only:

Bwar/fwar/Sierra
Price - 5.3/5.2/3.3
Beurhle - 2.3/1.9/4.59
Dickey - 1.6/1.5/4.75
Estrada - 2.8/1.6/4.54
Hutch - -0.9/1.9/4.00

Tanaka - 1.9/1.6/3.44
Pineda - 1.6/3.3/2.93
Cc - 0.2/0.6/4.00
Severino - 1.3/0.6/3.89
Nova - 0.7/0.6/4.69
Eovaldi - 2.2/2.9/3.98

So if you factor in a shortened rotation, where I think Nova and Hutch are clearly out and I doubt CC will get healthy this year you have Price/Dickey/Buerhle/Estrada vs Tanaka/Pineda/Eovaldi/Severino. Yes Price is the best, but 2-4 I'd much rather have the Yankees. Their fwar (which more predicts future results) and SIERRA are much better. That is why it's important to get Stroman back to knock one of those guys out of our rotation, hopefully Estrada.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#310703) #
like i said, my numbers are the average bwar/fwar per 32gs.

just 2015 again:

Price 6.6 ----- Pineda 3.7
Estrada 3.4 --- Eovaldi 3.2
Buehrle 3.2 --- Tanaka 2.9
Dickey 2.3 ---- Nova 1.6
Hutchison 1.1 - Sabathia 0.5
Stroman ------ Severino 5.3
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Kasi - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#310705) #
There is still something very strange going on with your numbers. Let's compare Buerhle and Eovaldi. Before today's game they both had 26 GS, which is dead even. Buerhle has a Bwar of 2.3 and fwar of 1.9. Eovaldi has a Bwar of 2.2 and a fwar of 2.9. I am finding it very difficult to find some method that averages Bwar/fwar and gives both of them an identical score of 3.2.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#310706) #
Not to mention Dickey has 1.5/1.6 over 28gs and somehow that projects to a 2.3? This is some seriously odd math.
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scottt - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#310708) #
We have enough stats out there that suppress the luck side of the equation and are predictive.

They're better at predicting outcome over several years-for a majority of pitchers, but they're not better at predicting the result of the next game. Wanna look at the ERA of last years playoffs pitchers next to their fips and SIERRA?
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Kasi - Saturday, September 05 2015 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#310710) #
It's still better than the alternative.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 06 2015 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#310722) #
i'm pulling values from fangraphs value tab.


Price: 6.3ra9war / 5.4fwar
Buehrle: 3.2ra9war / 1.8fwar
Dickey: 2.5ra9war / 1.5fwar
Estrada: 3.2ra9war / 1.6fwar
Hutchison: -0.2ra9war / 1.9fwar
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King Ryan - Sunday, September 06 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#310745) #
"They're better at predicting outcome over several years-for a majority of pitchers, but they're not better at predicting the result of the next game. "

What is your source for this?
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