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Game Threads Tigers @ Blue Jays - August 28-30
The Toronto Blue Jays home schedule features David Price's former team on the docket.



Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Friday at 7:07 pm ET - Matt Boyd (1-2, 4.88) vs. R.A. Dickey (8-10, 4.26)
Saturday at 1:07 pm ET - Buck Farmer (0-2, 7,80) vs. Drew Hutchison (12-2, 5.06)
Sunday at 1:07 pm ET - Alfredo Simon (11-8, 4.89) vs. Mark Buehrle (13-6, 3.60)

In case you haven't seen it yet, here's some Johnny Cash music set to the beat of the Blue Jays bats.
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Friday, August 28 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT.
Tigers @ Blue Jays - August 28-30 | 216 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#310108) #
In theory this should be a slug fest weekend for the Jays and lots of fun for us. Poor Boyd going against his old team, then Farmer who was pounded by the Angels & Cleveland. Simon probably the best starter the Jays will face and he has a 4.89 ERA (4.35 FIP).
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Eephus - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#310110) #
I'm always wary of a series like this. The pitching Matchups look very favorable to the home 25 on paper but hey, Boyd could pull a magical game out of his cleats against the team that traded him away, Farmer could use his unfamiliarity against Toronto hitters to his advantage and Alfredo Simon is not the complete package of garbage that a lot of people think he is.

That being said, bake em away toys.
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scottt - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#310111) #
For the year, Boyd is 1-4, 7.04 . That's probably why he's in Detroit.
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Richard S.S. - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#310112) #
Shouldn't this also be a Stroman throw day? It will be interesting following his progress. He could be the big August trade deadline acquisition we hoped A.A. would make. It's early yet, but very interesting none the less.

A nine-game Homestand against teams Toronto should beat is a good time to gain some distance in the standings. Six wins might not be enough at this time of year, while 9 wins are possible. Continued health is very necessary, at least until the Call-ups arrive.

If Stroman is actually a call-up, there might not be that many more brought up due to lack of playing time. In the OF, I can't see more than Dalton Pompey called up. No one needs highlighting unless A.A. Is developing Offseason Trade Value. So whoever A.A. bring up must have postseason ramifications, as they might play there.
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hypobole - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#310113) #
Funny how great Boyd was a couple of months ago, but now he sucks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-L7w1K5Zo
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#310116) #
Since late May, Anthony Gose has hit .198/.266/.286 in 72 games.
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scottt - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#310117) #
Incredibly, Travis is still 7th in War on the team.
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scottt - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#310118) #
I'm annoyed every time someone hits into a double play behind Revere.
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#310119) #
Shouldn't this also be a Stroman throw day?

Indeed it was. According to Marcus, "Crushed it. On to the next one. Who's going to be in Lansing on Wednesday?" when the target will be 65-70 pitches. (He threw 51 today.)
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#310120) #
So whoever A.A. bring up must have postseason ramifications, as they might play there.

Most of them won't be post-season eligible. They need to be on the active roster (or the DL) as of midnight August 31; the day before the active roster can be expanded. Stroman's been on the DL, he's an exception. But anyone else called up after September 1 isn't eligible for the post-season.
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Lylemcr - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#310121) #
Um.... Donaldson kind of hit that one a little hard...

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John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#310122) #
The beat goes on.. Tulo then Donaldson out of the park. Sweeeeeet.
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China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#310123) #
".....They need to be on the active roster (or the DL) as of midnight August 31...."

The rule was changed in 2014.  Under the new rule, you don't need to be on the active roster.  You can be on the 40-man roster and still be eligible.
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rtcaino - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#310124) #
Back-to-back-to-back-to-back homers have happened seven times in major league play, as per Retrosheet.

I could see Tulo, JD, JB and EE doing that sometime. (Maybe with Colabello to set the record behind them for 5 in a row.)

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Chuck - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#310127) #
Pitchers are walking Goins and Revere these days. Doesn't strike me as sound strategy.
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Richard S.S. - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#310128) #
...Most of them won't be post-season eligible...

If, in the case of injury, one of them might be needed, there will be exceptions. Everyone on the 40-Man would then be eligible. As each round progresses, changes in Rosters are possible. Keeping theses players sharp will be an issue, not easily settled unless planned for now.
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scottt - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#310129) #
Those aren't intentional walks. Pitchers are just missing.
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#310130) #
The rule was changed in 2014.

I missed that, being a Jays fan.

I trust they made it retroactive, to cover K-Rod in 2003?
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#310131) #
Or whichever year it was...
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#310133) #
In strange doings around the game tonight, Stephen Drew (batting .196) received an intentional walk in the second inning tonight. From a LH pitcher, no less.
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China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#310134) #
A couple days ago, I was wondering who would be demoted to make room for Hutchison, and I thought it might be Carrera.  But it was just pointed out (in a tweet by Barry Davis) that the Jays could simply option Thole to Buffalo and then recall him on Sept. 1.  He wouldn't miss a single Dickey start, and the Jays wouldn't lose their 4th outfielder.  So I presume that's what they will do.
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Paul D - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#310135) #
China, wouldn't Thole need to be down for 10 days before being called back up? Or does that not apply to the Sept 1 roster expansion?
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China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#310136) #
Good question.  I presume it doesn't apply to the expanded-roster guys.  But I could be wrong.  I guess we'll know by tonight or tomorrow morning, because they aren't likely to option Thole if it would make him ineligible to catch Dickey's next game.
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greenfrog - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#310137) #
Since late May, Anthony Gose has hit .198/.266/.286 in 72 games

In my experience, it never pays to make these kinds of comments when the Jays are facing the player in question. I think Gose owes Magpie a steak dinner or something for tonight's game.
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China fan - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#310138) #
Osuna and Sanchez.  Wow.  Is there a better 8th and 9th inning combination anywhere in baseball now?
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#310139) #
They've optioned Thole to Bluefield and their season ends on September 1, so he'll be back on the 2nd.
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Richard S.S. - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#310140) #
We now have only two numbers to worry about. How many games are we ahead of the Yankees? (As things stand now, 1.5 games ahead.) How far are we away from being out of the Playoffs? (As things stand now, 6.0 games ahead.)

So in other words, it's a good time to be a Baseball fan and an even better time to be a Blue Jays Fan. NL West has a 2.5 game spread. Nothing else is significant in the NL races. AL East and the Second Wild Card are all that's important right now in the AL. With just about 34-36 games remaining, a Team getting very hot might make a charge, but it'll be another 10 games before that has much effect.
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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#310141) #
I think Gose owes Magpie a steak dinner

Fair enough. I was just trying to help the kid out a little. Not too much harm done.
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John Northey - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#310142) #
Watching the 9th I was remembering the old days of Tom Henke where it just seemed impossible to lose. Osuna really has come into his own as a closer and Sanchez is a solid 'Duane Ward' to Osuna's 'Henke'. You kids out there - enjoy this time. You'll be talking about it in 20 years to kids who are wondering what it was like back in 2015. Trust one who has been there, done that.
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JB21 - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#310144) #
Back-to-back-to-back-to-back homers have happened seven times in major league play, as per Retrosheet.

I'm 99% sure one of those games was the Dodgers in LA. They were down 4 runs in the 9th before back-to-back-to-back-to-back HRs tied the game. I believe Nomar later hit a walk off in extras. One of the better regular season games in MLB history, I'd say.
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scottt - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#310145) #
They might not be able to put Thole back on the 25 roster for 10 days, but that wouldn't matter come Sept 1 at which point the 25 roster doesn't apply.
Everybody on the 40 roster is signed to a major league contract, they just get paid more while they play for the MLB team.

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Magpie - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#310146) #
According to Barry Davis, they specifically sent Thole to Bluefield so that he could come back for September 2. Davis says if they'd sent him to Buffalo, he'd have had to stay until the end of their season.
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smcs - Friday, August 28 2015 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#310147) #
Does he have to physically report to Bluefield (or wherever they are), or can he just hang out in his Toronto hotel room for a few days?
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greenfrog - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 06:27 AM EDT (#310152) #
I was just trying to help the kid out a little

Charity begins at home games, I guess.
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China fan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#310154) #
The Ty Kelly era is over, and the Danny Dorn era has begun.  Kelly has been DFA'd to make room for waiver claim Dorn, who is described as a "left-hitting Colabello."  The Colabello parallel is probably because Dorn is a power-hitting 1B who spent 10 seasons in the minors, always with a stellar hitting record, before finally reaching the majors at the age of 30, and then failing and being waived.  He's unlikely to replicate Cola's comeback path, of course, but I suppose he's worth a look.  Dorn's slash line in AAA this season is an awesome .386/.444/.618.   Of course that's in the PCL, where even J. P. Arencibia looked like a future all-star.
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China fan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#310156) #
My biggest takeaway from last night's game is that Dickey is back in good form.  His previous two outings were relatively poor (5 runs allowed in each) but he looked very good last night.  He's crucial to the Jays hopes in the stretch drive and playoffs.

Next step: we need Buehrle to return to form.  And a good start by Hutchison today would be a nice bonus.

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scottt - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#310158) #
It would be a good experience for the kids in Bluefield to rub shoulders with a vet like Thole.
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scottt - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#310159) #
Loup has an ERA of 5.4 after 5 innings in Buffalo. That's actually very good when you consider that batters are shelling him for a .409 average and his WHIP is 2.60.

He should have been sent down months earlier.

Conversely, Randy Wolf has 2 quality starts with Detroit and we might actually be lucky to miss him.


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Jonny German - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#310160) #
Yes, those soft-tossing lefties are just murder on the Jays.
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scottt - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#310161) #
Still, 0 extra base hits against Texas and LA. Buerhle, Dickie and Estrada couldn't manage that last week.
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Mike Green - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#310162) #
Dorn is a nice addition.  He has hit RHPs very well throughout his minor league career in both the IL and the PCL.  He'll be a nice left-handed bat off the major league bench in September. 
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China fan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#310164) #
I guess you don't need to worry about base-running when you're hitting 3-run homers, but that was a pretty pathetic display by Smoak and the Jays.  Smoak injures himself with a poor slide, then takes off unnecessarily on the Martin grounder and gets thrown out.  Then Martin is thrown out easily at 2B, although I guess it was a failed hit-and-run, so the fault may have been Revere's. 

I'm being unnecessarily picky, but it almost appears that the Jays are getting complacent with these mediocre Tiger pitchers today and yesterday -- they're scoring with the bombs and not bothering with the more patient approach.  That's a gross generalization of course, and probably will be proven wrong.

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Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#310167) #
The only time to complain is when your best hitters go 0-2 with runners on 1st and 3rd and just one out. That runner on 3rd must be brought in, as you know your pitcher's going to give up something.
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#310168) #
See how easy that was.
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Super Bluto - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#310170) #
Good to see Martin's leg feels good enough that he felt able to attempt the steal. That's a good sign.
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scottt - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#310171) #
Smoak injures himself with a poor slide, then takes off unnecessarily on the Martin grounder and gets thrown out.  Then Martin is thrown out easily at 2B, although I guess it was a failed hit-and-run, so the fault may have been Revere's.

3B coach is one of the remaining spot where the Jays could upgrade.

I wouldn't want Revere to make the last out of the inning. 1-1 isn't a good count for the hit and run and Martin shouldn't be stealing bases when they lead by 3.
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China fan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#310172) #
Some heads-up baserunning by Goins to score from 2B on the fly-out, while the mental error by Gose reminds us of why the Jays deemed him expendable.

Meanwhile, I'm loving the combination of speed, defence and OBP skills that Ben Revere provides.  I had somehow assumed he was a free agent after this season, but in fact he is arbitration-eligible.  His salary this year is $4.1-million, which suggests that he might get as much as $6-million (or more) in arbitration next year.  Do the Jays offer him arbitration?  Or do they decide they have enough outfielders with Bautista, Pillar, Pompey and Saunders?
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Chuck - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#310174) #
Intentional walk in a 9-1 game. That's what over-managing looks like.
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Dewey - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#310175) #
Gose’s bone-headed mistake about how many were out is a prime example of the “intangibles” that stats don’t/can’t measure.   Gose, Rasmus, Lind, Lawrie, Reyes (especially Reyes on the bases) were occasionally susceptible to this sort of thing.  When might we develop a stat for players losing focus, I wonder?
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China fan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#310176) #
Ryan Goins is starting to make a believer of me.  Over the past 9 games, his OBP is .630.   That's his OBP, not his OPS.
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Bid - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#310177) #
Was that Robbie Alomar?
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scottt - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#310178) #
I think they'll trade away either Revere or Saunders. Pompey doesn't cost anything and might not have much value anyway. They only thing they'll need next year is starting pitching, but they could always take more prospects.

Revere is too valuable to just non-tender to save money.

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scottt - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#310179) #
I'm starting to believe that they'll need September call-ups to replace the starters once they get those 10 run leads and everybody already has 4 or 5 at-bats in the 7th.
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#310180) #
3rd excellent outing in a row for Hutch. Since May 9 his era is 4.11.

and he even had tough luck today with jose dropping that ball to not only give up a free hit, not only give up a free run, but also cost him 10+ more high stress pitches against the heart of their order with risp. probably cost him another inning.
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Jonny German - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#310181) #
"Do the Jays offer (Revere) arbitration? Or do they decide they have enough outfielders with Bautista, Pillar, Pompey and Saunders?"

I think tendering Revere is a given, but there's a real chance that they non-tender Saunders.

It will be interesting to see how it works out. Ideally you'd like to have the option of moving Bautista to first, but that has its own logjam.

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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#310182) #
imo non-tendering either would be unsmart. both are quality full time two-way prime aged affordable players.
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#310183) #
the hat trick. might be the first time that's ever happened in baseball. i love this team so much

EE now tied for 12th mlb with a 143wrc+. following a 9th, 14th, and 7th the previous 3yrs. imo, that's not expendable.

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Lylemcr - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#310185) #
The Jays have playing so many contenders lately, I was wondering how they would do with a basement dweller. Same difference.. a very focused team.

Btw, I think Edwin is getting hot...
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Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#310186) #
Edwin, in the midst of his regular HOT, HOT streak has been the forgotten man with Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Martin, etc. news dominating most of the written and televised talk recently. Perhaps he thought he might want a little more attention.
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#310187) #
we made it!

http://www.buzzfeed.com/paulmcleod/10-reasons-the-toronto-blue-jays-are-guaranteed-to-win-the-w?bftw&utm_term=4ldqpgi#.kak93X0zeD
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PeterG - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#310189) #
I don't think that both Revere and Saunders will be tendered. The budget will not be unlimited and pitching a more pressing need. As Revere will likely get over 5 mil in arb, I think that Saunders will be non tendered. If he wants to do a Smoak and sign a one year for one mil or so after that in order to re-establish value, then maybe.
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whiterasta80 - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#310190) #
They'll be tendered and one will be moved for value, just like lind last season.

By the way youtube now says "video not available". I saw it previously, but what idiot blocked the synergistic marketing brilliance that was that video. Both MLB and the cash estate can only benefit from it.
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PeterG - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#310191) #
Lind had value last season. Saunders has little to none at present. He may never be 100% again.
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Mike Green - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#310192) #
Nice outing from Hutchison.  If you put him in front of a good defence, he will be fine. 

The Jays crossed the 700 run mark for the season in August.  Impressive.
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#310193) #
#CanadianRakin'
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#310194) #
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John Northey - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#310195) #
OK this is getting nutty.  I figured these first two games would be easy but not 20-4 easy.  Almost feel sorry for other teams.  Almost. 

In the last 30 days, via MLB.com, EE leads in OPS for the majors at 1.241 followed iin 3rd place by Donaldson at 1.175, Bautista is 14th at 1.013 - that means for the past month the Jays have had 3 guys with 1000+ OPS for 2/3/4 in the lineup.  Ouch.  Also over 1000 with too few PA to qualify in the past 30 days are Colabello, and Carrera.  What is funny is next - highest sub 1000 OPS for past 30 days is Goins at 781.  How odd.  If anyone told me when the trade happened that Goins would out OPS Tulo in August by over 100 points I'd have figured Goins had only 10 PA.

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Richard S.S. - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#310196) #
Relentless.
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christaylor - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#310197) #
Huh? First time? Do you mean the non-sense of throwing hats on the field or are you forgetting that Carlos Delgado hit four home runs in one game (among 15 others)?

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grjas - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#310198) #
Btw, I think Edwin is getting hot...

You could call it "March of the Parrots"
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Magpie - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#310200) #
The four HR game is one of the rarest feats in baseball - there have been more perfect games - and the HR cycle has never been achieved. Whiten came closest, with a slam, a pair of 3 run HRs, and a 2 run HR.

Weird that two of the sixteen came in the same month - Mike Cameron and Shawn Green in May 2002.
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John Northey - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#310201) #
Weird that only 16 4 HR games exist and one was by a Jay while 2 were by ex-Jays.  2 of the 3 arrived on the scene the year the Jays last won the World Series.  Whiten was one of the Jays top prospects pre-1991 while Green & Delgado were pre-1992.
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#310202) #
the nonsense, christaylor, the nonsense.
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Paul D - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#310203) #
the nonsense, christaylor, the nonsense.

The glorious, glorious nonsense.

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christaylor - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#310204) #
Ah, apologies uglyone... that act made me cranky. I don't like it in Hockey and it is even less appealing to see at the Dome.

As much as I disliked JP he had the temerity to speak the truth about Blue Jays followers. They're hockey fans.

The Leafs 10 game win streak at the time of the World Series win was almost as celebrated...

Is it too early for bandwagon backlash? At least tickets here in Boston to the Jays games are cheap.
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ogator - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#310205) #
I feel the need to invoke the name of Otto Velez, who hit his four home runs in a single day. It may have been a doubleheader but it was one more than Eddie hit today.
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Paul D - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#310206) #
I thought that the hat trick stuff was great fun. The players seemed to love it. I think baseball will be able to survive this everytime someone hits 3 HRs in a game.
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King Ryan - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#310207) #
I thought the hat thing was neat, unique. Why do you hate fun?
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#310208) #
i sympathize with chris.

the jays have always gotten short shrift from the toronto hockey market.

still, the hats were cool!
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#310209) #
empathize, that is.
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uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2015 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#310210) #
p.s. both Hutch and Lowe said the hats were the "coolest thing they've ever seen"
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JB21 - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 12:07 AM EDT (#310211) #
Judging by EE's IG he enjoyed it as well. I dislike hockey strongly and hate when the Jays' and Leafs' fan bases are thought to be the same but I thought it was very cool. The country has baseball fever and the Jays' players are basking in it.
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John Northey - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#310212) #
I think this is great fun.  I used to love hockey but the year and a half lockout turned me off completely.  My 10 year old daughter loves it though as do my in-laws so I'm starting to get interested a bit again but up here it is the Winnipeg Jets that are the big team.  The Leafs are hated by most which makes it easier to get their stuff cheap for my daughter (loved it when Target closed as they were overstocked in Leaf stuff...idiots thought all of Ontario except Ottawa had to love the Leafs...morons).  I find some Leaf stuff in dollar stores here.

3 HR gets hats thrown on the field...something that we might see Detroit pick up on too.

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John Northey - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#310213) #
Fun article on Stroman at the Star. Suggests we might be looking at a 6 man rotation down the stretch.  Not the worst idea...
David Price  - 5 starts so far, 1.98 ERA, don't want to mess with that.
Mark Buehrle - trying to get to 200 IP yet again, 35 innings shy right now, and won't want to lose any starts, although he is slowing down a bit lately so more rest might be good for him.
R.A. Dickey - a knuckleballer so the more he is used the better for his control is the general rule with knuckleballers
Marco Estrada - 3.19 ERA, hard to stop using him like a horse
Drew Hutchison - Nice comeback today from being demoted, 4.87 ERA, Sub 4 ERA over his last 7 starts,projected 4.26 ERA the rest of the way via PECOTA.

How did the rotation become so solid lately?  Not complaining, nice situation but now what will happen I wonder? Can't imagine the Jays would throw him into the fire vs the Yankees (4 game set, ideally Price/Buehrle/Dickey/Estrada even with Buehrle's issues with the Yankees) so a start in Atlanta is most likely.  Could give him two starts, game #1 vs Atlanta then game #3 vs Boston to help ensure the rotation is rested and ready for the vital final Yankees series in Toronto.  Then comes the Rays/Orioles/Rays to end the regular season.  Right now it almost feels like the Jays could let me start with my 50 MPH fastball that looks like a knuckleball and they'd still win.
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Intricated - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#310214) #
Top of the (my) morning to you.  And hats off to Ewin with his long, luscious hitting streak that is hair-raising to the opposition.  What better way to cap it all off than a clean cut of the series today.  Great to wake up every morning to the Jays being ahead of the pack, that always does the trick for me.

I'll see myself out now.

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Lylemcr - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#310215) #
I don't see the Jays starting Stroman. They want to get as many starts out of Price they can, until they lock it up.

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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#310216) #
"....I don't see the Jays starting Stroman. They want to get as many starts out of Price they can, until they lock it up...."

I agree that the Jays will make sure to get as many starts as possible from Price, but that doesn't prevent them from giving a start or two to Stroman, since it would allow them to give an extra day of rest to Hutchison or Buerhle or Estrada, or even to skip a start by the worst-performing of the starters.  Hutchison seems to perform better with an extra day of rest.  Buehrle has been "beat up" (in the words of Gibbons) and could use an extra rest day.  Estrada has never pitched more than 150 innings in a season, and he is already at 135 innings this season, so he could benefit from an extra rest day or a skipped start.  If Stroman pitches well in Lansing and Buffalo in his two games this week, he creates some nice options for the Jays to mix-and-match their starters and give them some much-needed extra days of rest.  We've already seen this month that the Jays can be ruthless in demoting a starter to Buffalo to maximize the performance of the rotation.  If they think Stroman can allow them to improve the performance of the whole rotation in the pennant drive, I don't think they'll hesitate to bump a starter for a day or two.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#310217) #
Most of the crowd at the RC are Leafs fans. Has there been a hat trick by a Leafs player since Sundin in 2006?
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#310218) #
The Leafs are now 42-23 at home and 31-33 on the road. They could give Stroman a home start or two, but it would be a gamble to use him against a winning team on the road.
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JB21 - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#310219) #
The Leafs are now 42-23 at home and 31-33 on the road.

Dude, come on. Please don't ever do that again.
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#310220) #
Revere is in the lead-off spot in today's lineup, while Tulo is batting 5th.  A lot of fans will be happy about that.  For the record, I personally don't think it makes much difference, but Revere has been on fire in the past few days, so why not?
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#310221) #
Revere over the past 9 games:  .514/.561/.568 for an OPS of 1.129.
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#310222) #
Ryan Goins over those same 9 games:  .478/.586/.565 for an OPS of 1.151.   Hey, maybe he should be the lead-off hitter! 

Almost the entire Jays lineup is an embarrassment of riches these days.

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hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#310223) #
Something that stuck in my craw a couple of weeks ago that needs to be coughed up.

History lesson for Richard Griffin. Since the Jays had their 11 game win streak broken, they are 9-3 despite playing 8 of those 12 games on the road.

Also, the hacktastic Kevin Pillar's 1st PA yeaterday was a thing of beauty in a circus freak show kind of way. He offered at a low and away pitch and instead of swinging over top of it or beating it into the ground like most hitters in that situation, he somehow managed to turn it into an infield pop-up. Just wow.
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#310224) #
Pillar is reaching for everything these days.  He's like Vladimir Guerrero Sr., but not in a good way.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#310225) #
I don't see the Jays starting Stroman. They want to get as many starts out of Price they can, until they lock it up.

Nonsense, David Price will pitch as exactly as the Blue Jays have planned for him to pitch; the 31st vs Cleveland; the 5th vs Baltimore; the 10th at New York. The earliest Marcus Stroman can pitch is the 12th. As long as Price can still pitch 16th or 17th at Atlanta; 21st or 22nd vs New York; 26th or 27th vs Tampa and 1st at Baltimore or 2nd at Tampa. That's already maxing out Price's starts. there is a little leeway, but he must make both NY starts.

There is not, at present, a need for a 6th Starter. That's not saying there never will be a need. If I have a choice, I'd much rather have Marcus Stroman than anyone else, because there is no one else. He's still two steps away from returning, but is expected to be successful. He needs to start at least two games at this level to quell any questions for next season. He doesn't pitch, there will always be questions.

You have David Price for the Postseason. If Marcus Stroman can pitch, he's my #2 Starter behind Price because he's a better Pitcher than anyone else. With everyone else I have concerns, and so should you.

I prefer Tulowitzki at leadoff, but I can understand using the hot hand.
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eudaimon - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#310226) #
I think Revere is batting leadoff mostly because Simon's been terrible against lefties. I think Gibbons has done this once before. Seems like a good move, especially since he's been red hot.
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rtcaino - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#310227) #
"Dude, come on. Please don't ever do that again."

You have to admit, it is nice to see The Gardens packed again.
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ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#310228) #
I think Revere is batting leadoff mostly because Simon's been terrible against lefties>

Tulowitzki leading off games.

.192/.087/.279.
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Jimbag - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#310229) #
4 minutes, 3 outs. Buerhle should teach a class.
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JB21 - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#310230) #
I'm sitting here shaking my head at these guys.
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Vulg - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#310231) #
This is just amazing and absurd.
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Mike Green - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#310232) #
That was a nice pitch that Edwin hit out.  En fuego indeed.
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jjdynomite - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#310233) #
With yet another opposite field blast by Edwing, the Jays have three 30 HR sluggers and we're still in August. And Stroman's on his way back. This is almost too good to be true.

The Jays kinda have to catch the Royals now because then the boys would have home field advantage through the WS. I just can't see this team losing at home, especially with Hutchison rotating with Price every other game. :-p
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#310235) #
Tulo's career line:  .297/.370/.510.

Revere's career line:  .294/.328/.346.

Given the difference between those two hitters, it was logical and defensible to give Tulo more ABs per game than Revere. 

The counter-argument is that Tulo isn't comfortable leading off a game because he doesn't have a chance to study the pitcher from the on-deck circle.  But if studying the pitcher is so crucial, it's unclear why Revere (a worse hitter) would be better able to succeed in the lead-off spot without studying the pitcher.  We're not suggesting that Revere has better intuition or doesn't need to see a pitcher in advance, are we?  And Tulo, like every hitter, often faces relief pitchers in the late innings without any chance to study them from the on-deck circle, yet still has had a stellar hitting career.  Hitters have to face unfamiliar pitchers all the time, probably every game, so I don't see why Revere would be less needful than Tulo of the chance to study a pitcher from the on-deck circle.

The real reason for shifting Tulo today is that he generally hasn't been hitting well this month and Revere has been on fire.  Shake up the lineup a little bit in a game where the Jays are already heavily favored and see if it makes any difference.  Nothing wrong with trying it out.

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Paul D - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#310236) #
I wonder if it would be worth trying to extend Pillar. He seems like a guy who would benefit from security, and if you believe is his defence you might be able to lock him up at a price that's fair even if he's the fourth of.
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jjdynomite - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#310237) #
aChina fan, as was debated a couple days ago, it is not only Tulo's (assumption = negative) comfort level leading off a game that's the issue, but it's Revere's (assumption = positive) comfort level leading off the game that is the combined issue. This makes the latter a prime candidate to to bat first and be the quick-footed table-setter and the latter to bat 5th (I guess, based on today) and be the run-producing stud he's been his whole career in Colorado.

And with that, Pillar slams one over the wall. Please boys keep your mojo through October!



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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#310238) #
"Comfort level" = the new intangible that we can invoke to explain anything.  Player A looks "comfortable at the plate" and Player B "does not look comfortable."  Player A is also a "clutch hitter" who is "gritty" and "knows how to get the job done." 

How is this different from baseball superstitions? Some players don't feel "comfortable at the plate" unless they go through a bunch of rituals first.  They have to step on the foul line when they take to the field, or they have to avoid stepping on the foul line, or they put on their equipment in a specific order.  There's not much logic to it.  And I thought the whole point of sabremetric advances in recent years was to move away from psychological explanations and the invoking of intangibles and small sample sizes. 

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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#310239) #
Extend Pillar? He's not arbitration eligible until 2018.
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King Ryan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#310240) #
This is such a non-issue, I wish people would let it go. Tulo is a better hitter than Revere, full stop, and lineups make so little difference anyway. Just let it go.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#310241) #
Yeah Russell.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#310242) #
Nice  0-2 pitch, Simon.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#310243) #
Shows the importance with having good 1B defense.
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#310244) #
Martin, Pillar and Buehrle all seem to be snapping out of their mini-slumps.  That's very big for the Jays at a key time of year.
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Anders - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#310245) #
This team is ridiculous.

I'm talking about the Tigers of course - this is some of the worst OF defense I've ever seen.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#310246) #
Those third rate Detroit pitchers could get anyone out of a slump. It's not like the Yankees are having any trouble sweeping Atlanta on the road either.
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Paul D - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#310247) #
Yes, Scott, I was thinking they could buy out his arbitration years and poss one free agent year.
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christaylor - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#310248) #
"And I thought the whole point of sabremetric advances in recent years was to move away from psychological explanations..."

Wishing away psychology with stats is not and never will make the players non-human. Psychology and makeup (e.g.,the good face) have rightly been de-emphasized but the players are human and will press, get anxious, and even get the full blown yips. As fans we grt very little insight into this but it is there and will be there on the field.

The best analysts and front office staff recognize players are human. The most recent example I can think of is not rushing Tulo to the team after his trade. By his own admission he was upset and if you were AA would you not place sone value on giving him a day to make peace with the change... ummm... psychologically?

Comfort plays a role in the ability to play. Can we find evidence to reject the null hypothesis that it doesn't? No, but does that matter?
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Jimbag - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#310249) #
Comfort level may sound like hocus pocus, but if you think about it, how is it different than bothering with splits? If batting is batting, then it should make no more difference where you hit in the lineup than whether you're facing a lefty or righty. At the end of the day, you hit a pitched baseball. The very reason for having such a rich field of stats to draw from is an attempt to quantify performance in a variety of circumstance. All things are done between the ears before they're performed on the field, so discounting psychology ignores a major part of performance. After all, half of hitting is 90% mental.
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#310250) #
"....Comfort plays a role in the ability to play....."

Agreed.  And players are indeed human, and psychology plays a role too.  I'm just saying that this role is smaller than some of us have been arguing.  But since there are no metrics to measure it, we won't be able to settle the debate with data.  So it will remain a subjective issue, open to everyone's interpretation.

"....discounting psychology ignores a major part of performance...."

I don't think anyone is dismissing psychology.  I'm just saying it's difficult to draw sweeping conclusions about "comfort level in the lead-off spot" or similar intangible arguments, and that this kind of psychological factor plays a smaller role than some people assume. 

By the way, for those who find this a tedious issue and not worthy of discussion:  feel free to suggest other topics for debate.  This site works better if people are throwing out new subjects for discussion or debate.
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Mike Green - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#310251) #
I wouldn't bring on Sanchez with a 4 run lead- nor would I have had him warming.  It's the way Gibbons rolls.
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ayjackson - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#310252) #
I don't find that any of our relievers are overworked. You want your best pitchers pitching regularly. +200 run differential means they pitch in some low leverage situations.
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BlueMonday - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#310253) #
I don't know if the role of comfort/psychology is smaller than we think, it's just that we as fans don't have access to it like we do to stats. We can only guess from things such as facial expressions, body language and interviews. When some of us say 'there must be a reason Gibby/AA do this', we do so because they have more access to the player's psych data than we do.
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Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#310254) #
I think it matters more that the manager is consistent with the coaching approach to his team. Joe Maddon has been wildly successful with unorthodox strategies, but his team and the players on them, knew that is what he was bringing them. Gibbons is old school, so his players expect more set roles and such.
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Mike Green - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#310256) #
Gibbons doesn't consistently bring in the set-up guy with a 4 run lead in the 8th, but sometimes does.  It is hard to understand the advantage in doing so when the set-up guy threw the day before yesterday.
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Lylemcr - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#310257) #
If i was gose's manager, he would have sat after that play. He is not in the game. No excuse for that.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#310258) #
Pillar is most probably pre-arby the next two years and makes next to nothing - he's almost free. Right now he's not a free agent until after 2020, at which time he'll be 31. He might not be the answer going forward.
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electric carrot - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#310259) #
Pretty fun to be a fan these days eh?

I can't find the original thread anymore but earlier in the season perhaps mid-June when things were starker a challenge was issued for how our Jays might fare. While I seem to have been completely in error about the David Price trade which at the time I did not support (wrist slap!) but nevertheless, I was on the optimist side of things predicting the Jays would be 69+ wins at this point in the season and in a position to write their own ticket for October.  (Was it Mike Green who also expected good things from our Jays and a top of the pile win percentage?) Alas, 69 wins now seems pretty conservative.  Let's hope the ticket writing part also is also true. I am still optimistic, but concerned about the stealth Yankees who are within a strikingly close range to wreak havoc. This is definitely not over.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#310260) #
This is totally unfair. This is not the team I was making prediction for in Mars. I was expecting help at the deadline, but not in LF and SS.

Still only a game and a half ahead of the Yankees.
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Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#310261) #
Can only hope the Braves lie down for us like this. Was nice to see Bautista make a good throw in the ninth there.
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electric carrot - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#310262) #
This is totally unfair.

The team is playing a tonne better since the trade -- but it's a lot more than the people involved in the trade.  This team is also just finally reaching the potential it had the whole time I think.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#310263) #
In the NL, a .500 team would be 9 games from the second wild card. In the AL, a .500 team is only 3 games from the last playoff spot. Half a dozen clubs could go on a winning string and make it.

Baltimore, and Tampa have faded and are now closer to Boston than the top of the division.

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Dave Till - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#310264) #
Buehrle has done it - he's broken through the 13-win barrier!
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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#310265) #
"....This team is also just finally reaching the potential it had the whole time I think...."

I think that's very true.  Even without Price and Tulo and Revere, the Jays would still be winning most of these games.  The strengthened bullpen (which is not just due to Lowe and Hawkins) and the improved defence (which is not just due to Tulo) are key factors, but the offense has been very powerful all season, and the rotation was improving even before Price arrived.

"...Can only hope the Braves lie down for us like this..."

Well, the Tigers lay down for us.  At this stage of the season, I think there are a lot of demoralized teams that realize they won't make the playoffs, and their managers are experimenting with prospects (like Boyd and Farmer) who are still in the development phase.  It's hard for teams to be very intense or focused when they know that their managers are already looking ahead to next season and future prospects.  That should help the Jays, since most of their games for the remainder of this season are with non-contending teams.


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grjas - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#310266) #
I like Revere leading off, and it's more than simply about player preference. Dickey had a great quote after the trade- can't find it now- that talked about how disruptive Revere is to a pitcher's rhythm when he's on the basepaths. What better time to disrupt rhythm than early in the first inning before the starter gets his "sea legs."

Would have preferred Tulo batting second so that JD has more men on base. But I am beginning to think they can throw out any lineup order they want the way the whole team is hitting.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#310267) #
Atlanta is no longer a problem if they can't beat New York. That bodes well for future games.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#310268) #
That should help the Jays, since most of their games for the remainder of this season are with non-contending teams.

Except for Cleveland and Atlanta, all remaining games in against division rivals. There will be no freebies. Bench clearing brawls are more likely.
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John Northey - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#310269) #
Right now this is getting so silly... 29-6 over 3 games vs Detroit.  Phew.  The Jays average score these 3 games was almost 10-2.  I'm sure Cleveland's pitchers are going over charts and trying to dream up of how to deal with this.  My first guess is 2 of 3.

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Dave Till - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#310270) #

This team is also just finally reaching the potential it had the whole time I think.

What I believe is that the Jays were always good, but had a couple of holes and were very unlucky. They went and got even better, and the luck started to even out, with the results that we are all seeing.

I've never seen anything like this (and I am old enough to remember 1985, 1992, and 1993).

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China fan - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#310271) #
".....Except for Cleveland and Atlanta, all remaining games in against division rivals. There will be no freebies....."

All of their division rivals, except the Yankees, are below .500 at this point.  They're all 10 or more games out of first place, and they're all at least 4 games out of the wild card. Sure, the Orioles and Rays still have a shot at the WC if they go on a hot streak, but they're still sub-500 teams with dwindling chances.  Having said that, of course there are no freebies in baseball, or in life.
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scottt - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#310272) #
For part of the year, the team was auditioning for 4th and 5th starters. Sanchez won a spot, but was only 5-4 in eleven games got  injured and ran out of innings. Norris, Doubront, Copeland, Boyd and Redmont combined for 3-5 through 15 starts. Nothing unlucky about that. AA didn't replace Stroman until the trade deadline.

It took a while to confirm that Cecil couldn't close and that Castro wasn't ready for the role. Loup has been hittable all year, but was not demoted until the last possible moment.

No Luck. Just things that were changed almost too late.

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Hodgie - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#310273) #
For the people claiming Tulowitzki is uncomfortable in the leadoff role and stating what Gibbons should do, can you please cite a source for or drop the conversation unless you find some other justification? Here is an actual quote from Tulowitzki after today's game, courtesy of John Lott...

“Gibby communicated (about the move),” Tulowitzki said. “I think he wasn’t quite sure what to do. That’s what makes a manager’s job so tough. It’s like, ‘OK, well, we’re winning games. At the same time, I feel like I want to get Tulo going a little bit. He hasn’t hit in leadoff so maybe it’s affecting him.’

“For me, I don’t think that’s the reason why I haven’t been myself offensively. I just think it’s been a little bit of a change, putting pressure on myself. I haven’t been swinging the bat like I’m capable of. But at the same time we’ve been winning games so it’s been fun for me.”

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Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#310274) #
I don't think Tampa or Baltimore will change things much unlike Detroit or Atlanta. They've still got a shot and are playing plenty of young guys already. Boston has already made their transition to young guys which I think has helped them. Same for Cleveland. The teams you really want to see at this time are teams in free fall. Detroit, Atlanta, San Diego, Seattle, Colorado, Philly count. I don't think any of our division rivals do.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#310275) #
Lately Baltimore, Tampa and Boston are playing how? Consistently very poorly since the All Star Game.

Detroit is now 16-23 since the break (39 games).
Atlanta is 12-29 since the break (41 games).
Cleveland is 21-20 since the break (41 games).

Tampa Bay is 18-21 since the break (39 games).
Baltimore is 19-23 since the break (42 games).
Boston is 18-23 since the break (41 games).

New York is 24-17 since the break (41 games).
Toronto is 29-10 since the break (39 games).

Toronto took 1 of 3 from Seattle;
1 of 3 from New York;
1 of 2 twice from Philadelphia;
2 of 3 from Tampa;
2 of 3 from Texas;
3 of 4 from Kansas City; and,
they have swept Minnesota (4), New York (3), Oakland (3), Los Angeles (3), Detroit (3). And 5 of their losses were before Tulowitzki joined the lineup. Since then Toronto is 24-5 .8276. Relentless and very hard to beat.
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Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#310276) #
They're playing slightly below .500. While I'm sure they won't be making the playoffs I wouldn't say games against them are a cake walk. Those division games will be tough and we need to win more of them than the Yankees.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#310277) #
From what I've seen so far is that Gibby is letting the Starters go a bit longer in games than I think he should, since the Price start August 14. He's keeping everyone in his Bullpen as well used as possible without overwork. He's giving those who need rest, some, if not enough rest as best he can.

I do not think any team in Baseball is good enough to beat the Jays two games in a row, especially as the opponents have been lately. I would not be surprised if the Jays got to 90 wins before they got to 60 losses. They have 9 games to play before they go to New York. I can't see anyone good enough to keep them from winning 7 or more of those games. The only thing that could beat them is the Umpiring.
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Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#310278) #
Oh come on that's an exaggeration. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. As shocking as it is to believe I'm certain both the Yankees and the Jays will lose a series against one of those three division rivals. I would count us an underdog in any game that Chris Archer pitches and the Rays other guys are capable. And both Boston and Baltimore are capable of having a hot offensive series. We will lose games and not just because of the umps. Other than Price all our starters right now are perfectly capable of throwing a pumpkin.

I'd be really happy if we could go 4-3 against the Yankees in our remaining hth, given that four of them are in NY. Minimizing stumbles against those teams will be vital.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#310279) #
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/blue-jays-to-name-mark-shapiro-as-team-president.html

Good news once again.
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Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#310280) #
I just hope that AA gave it his blessing. I read something that there could be conflicts over that, but the two do have a good relationship so I hope they make a good team.
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ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#310281) #
For the people claiming Tulowitzki is uncomfortable in the leadoff role and stating what Gibbons should do, can you please cite a source

Well to start with, there's the part of the same article that reads "He said he's more comfortable in the middle of the order...".
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John Northey - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#310282) #
Hope Shapiro & AA can work well together (the article linked says "Shapiro plans to retain Alex Anthopoulos as the Jays’ general manager, according to sources.").  Taking a president from a small market team should be good to keep strong drafts going as he understands the value of kids.  Of course he might avoid signing Price due to the high dollar value as he isn't used to doing stuff like that.  Still, it reads well to me.

Shapiro was GM from 2002 to 2010 so he understands GM'ing but had just 2 good years (2005 with 93 wins and 2007 with 96 and lost in the ALCS).  He traded CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee for prospects.  Given the end results I suspect he'd trust AA to do the trades as that wasn't his strongest area.
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JohnL - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#310283) #
Good thing about Shapiro: He's not Paul Godfrey.
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hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#310284) #
John, you're way off on Shapiro's trade history. How did the Indians get Lee, Sizemore, Choo, Santana, Cabrera?
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Eephus - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#310285) #
In out-of-town news, Jake Arrieta is up to something in Dodger stadium.
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Richard S.S. - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#310286) #
On the different side, I have an unwatched Blue-Ray 4-disc Collector's Edition of Prometheus I'm not keeping as I don't have a Blue-Ray thingy to play it on. If interested e-mail me. I don't need more than something to send it back in to complete any deal. It just needs a home.
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hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#310287) #
Interesting we've been discussing the trade history of our new president.

A few months back our new prez was supposed to be Dan Duquette, who traded a certain pitcher for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman.
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jjdynomite - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#310288) #
Interesting, re: Shapiro.

Jeff Blair was on the "At the Letters" podcast with Arden Zwelling last week -- http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/at-the-letters-blue-jays-talk-with-jeff-blair/ -- and, in his inimitable sardonic way, slammed Shapiro for being a no-nothing who hasn't done squat while running the Indians, including belittling him for doing zilch but establishing tiered ticket prices.

Somebody's gonna have to make up to get a radio interview!

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John Northey - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#310289) #
He got those by being a lot like AA was - lets get every prospect we can from a team that has a desperate GM.  Stealing those guys from the Expos was just a sign he was paying attention to the stupidity and desperation of the guy running that team.  Impressive but he didn't do as well when trading away top players later on.  I also look at how his teams did in W-L which outside of 2 seasons was poor, 500 or less in all but those 2 years.  AA already has 2 years over 500 with this year being his 3rd plus this year should be his first playoff team (fingers crossed)  thus tying Shapiro's record.  Plus Shapiro came on after Cleveland made the playoffs in 2001 and made it 6 out of the past 7 years.  Hard to measure a GM or guess what he'd do as president.

Best thing to go on is salaries and lengths... Cleveland never cracked $90mil under him (was over $90 mil the year before he took over as GM) so he knows how to work a budget, current team only has Jason Kipnis and Yan Gomes signed for over 5 years, Corey Kluber and Carlos Santana have 5 year deals.  They had 2 nightmare free agents in Swisher & Bourn who both sucked (Swisher had one good year, Bourn somehow was positive for bWAR in all but the last year, purely on defense).  Other big 4 year deals were handed out to Derek Lowe, Travis Hafner, Roberto Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and a few others.  Some worked, some didn't.  Grady Sizemore also had a 6 year deal once.  I can see how he'd be a bit hesitant to go big with guys now, which would make Rogers happy.

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Nigel - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#310290) #
Blair's comments are staggeringly naive. From his employer's perspective the question for a President is not how many World Series did the team win but how much money (not just operating cash flow but franchise value as well) did he make for the Dolan's? I have no idea of the answer but Rogers does and I suspect the answer is a lot.
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AWeb - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#310291) #
It's funny looking at the standings now - the Jays are still -9 games to the pythag record, because they've been destroying everyone so thoroughly this month, they can't catch up. The "expected" record in August given 159-77 for the runs is 20-5. I know I've never seen a Jays team dominate a month like August 2015 before.
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electric carrot - Sunday, August 30 2015 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#310292) #
I know I've never seen a Jays team dominate a month like August 2015 before.

Agreed, I've been a fan since early 80s -- this is the most dominant stretch I can remember. 

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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#310293) #
In April and May, we weren’t a great team thanks to some truly awful pitching (actually sp moreso than rp) but we still outscored our problems and had a .525 run%. somehow we only posted a .442 win%, though, which was plenty unlucky.

JUN and JUL both our pitching and our luck balanced out, leading to both a .577run% and a .581win%. One of the best teams in baseball with no more bad luck.

AUG has seen the team take it to a new level, of course. a .677run% and an .802win%. Not only the best team in baseball but a little bit of good luck in there too.
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StephenT - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#310294) #
Just took a look at the playoff schedule which was released recently ( http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/ps.jsp ):

For the second year in a row, the A.L. starts a day before the N.L.

The A.L. Wildcard game is Tue Oct 6.  ESPN is doing the TV announcers (the only ESPN televised game).  I assume Dan Shulman will be calling this game.  While it would be nice to hear him call a Jays game again, the Jays of course hope to bypass this game.

The ALDS starts Thu Oct 8.  TV produced by Fox and MLB Network.  (I think Bob Costas has called 1 game in some of the recent past playoff years for MLBN, typically an afternoon game on a day when 4 games were scheduled; a series like Jays-Astros would likely get an afternoon slot.)

Uh oh.  Game 3 of the ALCS is Mon Oct 19 (Canadian Federal Election day).  That could inconvenience a lot of people if it was, say, Royals@Jays that night.  (No NLCS game that day so it should be a prime time game.)

Of course, tiebreakers could add more games, e.g., if the Jays and Yankees are tied for first place, I think they would play a game on Mon Oct 5.
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hypobole - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#310295) #
So the thinking is Shapiro will keep AA as GM. However just as Shapiro has moved sideways to a job with fewer constraints to success than he had in Cleveland, if I were AA, I would be thinking along the same lines.

The current openings in Milwaukee and Seattle have some serious downsides and as long as Scioscia is entrenched in LA, that GM position isn't nearly as appealing as it should be. It's the situation in Philly that bears close watching - a smart GM there could prime himself for years of success.
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Chuck - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#310297) #
Tulowitzki, yet to find his stride with the Jays, looks identical, offensively, to the man he replaced.

Tulo: 328 OBP, 377 SLG
Reyes: 322 OBP, 382 SLG

A modest OPS coupled with terrific defense sees Tulowitzki's time with the Jays prorated to between 4 and 6 WAR for an entire season (based on fWAR and bWAR). Just wait until he adds a little offense to the mix.

As for Reyes, he's unhappy about being a Rockie (who wouldn't be?) and has been performing at replacement level.

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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#310298) #
Rosenthal is reporting that the Jays won't owe any compensation to Cleveland for the signing of Shapiro.  That's good news, considering that Baltimore was asking for Hoffman and Pentecost in exchange for Duquette.   Of course Duquette was still under contract with Baltimore, whereas Shapiro seems to be a free agent, which makes me wonder why Rosenthal is even reporting this as news.  But he is reporting it as news, so maybe there was some scenario in which Cleveland would have negotiated compensation from the Jays. 
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Magpie - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#310299) #
Jake Arrieta is up to something in Dodger stadium.

The article on Arrieta's game, discussing how he blossomed with the Cubs, mentions that he had problems in Baltimore because the Orioles don't allow their pitchers to throw cutters.

Good thing for Mariano that he didn't work for them. Maybe they could have made an exception.
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Chuck - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#310300) #
A while ago, I had speculated that perhaps EE, at 32, was on the downward slide with his numbers, then, looking similar to those pre-peak. It appears that those concerns were unwarranted. His recent flurry has bumped his numbers to the point that they are indistinguishable for those of the past few seasons.

OPS+ from 2012 to 2015: 153, 145, 152, 147.

The team is loaded with players who don't seem duty bound to honour the traditional aging curves.

  • Bautista and Encarnacion are both famously late bloomers.
  • And it's fair to add Donaldson to the list. He had a late start to his major league career (age 26), sputtered in his rookie season, and then unfathomably became a superstar. When he regressed modestly in 2014, it seemed reasonable (perhaps optimistic) to hope for that as his established level moving forward. Nope. He somehow managed to elevate his game even further.
  • Russell Martin was strong in his early 20s, slumped during his should-be peak years, and then ramped up his game again in his 30s when most catchers start falling apart.
  • Chris Colabello is doing at 31 what would seem unimaginable after bouncing around the independent leagues.

Clearly the aging curves cannot expect to represent everyone. They are just an average. But do they need revisiting? Is player conditioning such that peak period should be extended? Or are the Jays somehow masters at recognizing the anomalies?

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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#310301) #
Wow.  Bob Elliott is reporting that the Jays have budgeted $250-$400 million for upgrades to the stadium in 2016.  I knew the upgrades were being planned, but didn't realize they would be so extensive.

Elliott is reporting that the money is earmarked for "roof improvement, suites upgrades, fixing the exterior of Rogers Centre, exploring the ability to have real grass grow inside the dome, concourse improvements, new seats, renovating the now-dormant Hard Rock Cafe, and erecting a statue of Jays Hall of Famer Robbie Alomar outside the building."

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John Northey - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#310302) #
Fantastic to hear that Rogers is investing in the building, which is where we fans want to spend time.  Set it up ideally and it could generate more revenue streams for the Jays.  That $25 mil cost for the Dome seemed painful for us taxpayers who paid $500 mil+ for the dome to be built but if Rogers puts another $400 mil into it then taxpayers are well off since we didn't get the team begging for more cash.  Actually I'm surprised there hasn't been an attempt by the Jays to suck more public cash (as far as we know).  The smart move is to work in the background with politicians since anyone with any knowledge of politics here knows there is little desire for public money to go to pro-sports.  Rogers might try to do a trade off.  The old give us item xyz and we'll do the dome.  With a company as large as Rogers they could do that easily without us ever being able to trace it.  Stuff like the feds paying for fibre optic cables to get internet to remote communities then letting Rogers administer it (for a profit) or loosening the rules on some of their TV stations to increase profits, or letting Rogers delay payments for spectrum for cell phone coverage by a few months (or years) to help cash flow.  All this suggests it will be hard for the Jays to add a lot of payroll in the short run but it should open up more payroll for 2017 and beyond so a back loaded deal for Price maybe? :) 
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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#310303) #
Shapiro does seem like a good acquisition, especially if he can leverage the current Jays success into a sustained path of success for years to come. For that to happen, he needs to persuade the owners to take the extra revenue from this season (sold-out games, TV revenue, merchandise etc) and funnel it back into payroll and long-term investments.  Not just the stadium upgrades, but payroll investments too.  The Jays are a big-city team with a big national audience.  There's no reason they can't boost their payroll to the point where they can afford a David Price, for example, as a number of other MLB teams already can.  (Price should be an easier acquisition than other free-agent pitchers because he already knows and enjoys Toronto.  Now it's just a matter of money.  With all the current excitement and revenue, the Jays are in a perfect position to sign a top-calibre free-agent starter for the first time in many years.  They should do it.)

The only problem with Shapiro's acquisition is that it might encourage Anthopoulos to head to greener pastures.  Anthopoulos might easily feel that Shapiro's arrival will prevent him from having any shot at the president's job for the next few years.   Shapiro is only 48.  He is likely to be with the Jays for a number of years to come.  This, it seems to me, could close the door to AA's rise in the organization in the short term and medium term, unless there is some way for him to share Shapiro's job (but how could that work?).  So the Jays will have to work hard to keep AA in the organization after his contract expires at the end of October.  They say they want him to stay.  Now let's see if they can do it.  Otherwise, as hypobole points out upthread, there are organizations that would throw money at AA, and he could be very tempted by the opening in Philadelphia or elsewhere.

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John Northey - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#310304) #
I think the big question with AA is what is his end goal? Is he happy as a GM or does he want to be a president and deal with the financial details? Gillick was very happy as a GM for around 15 years here with Beeston ahead of him as president as it let him focus on what he liked to do. I have no idea what AA wants. Does he value being in Canada over the US? Does he love the GM position? Does he want a chance to make a long term winner here or does he want to try building another team up from disaster (Philly)? Gillick eventually, after 'retiring' felt the need to do it again in Baltimore, Seattle, and Philly. Did he ever become president though or did he just stay as a GM all throughout it? He was the only other GM in Jays history to have any value on the market.
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#310305) #
There is a common thread to the development curves of Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson.  All three in their mid 20s were at positions which challenged them defensively.  In my opinion, defensive struggles played a role in slowing offensive development.  The most famous case from my younger days was Jose Cruz Sr., who was stretched defensively in centerfield where he started and progressed rapidly when he moved to the corners.

Bautista is a well-known conditioning fanatic (I'm going to venture a guess that Babe Ruth didn't do yoga), and these guys, from Musial to Brian Downing, tend to do very well as they age.  Downing, incidentally, is another example of a late bloomer who benefited clearly from a position change.

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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#310306) #
".....I'm going to venture a guess that Babe Ruth didn't do yoga...."

Probably not, but it's an interesting image....
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hypobole - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#310307) #
Checked the top 30 ISO guys on FG. All 3 Jays have better than median K rates. In fact, only 7 of the 30 have a strike out rate of 16.6 or less, and 2 of those 7 are Jose and Edwin. Both Jose and Edwin are in top half of BB% in that group. Of those 30, only Jose and Joey Votto have a higher BB% than K%.
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Alex Obal - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#310308) #
the Orioles don't allow their pitchers to throw cutters

Which if true would be especially funny given that they traded him for Scott Feldman, who has lived and died with his cutter for years. What. the hell. "We'll tolerate a proven pitcher throwing lots of cutters, but on principle we want our young pitchers to have huge platoon splits?" Good job Baltimore.
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John Northey - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#310309) #
Mike - interesting theory.  Makes sense in some respects...overly challenging a guy at the wrong position could lead to them not spending as much time developing their offense thus when they do get it going it might be more sustainable to a later age as they are still early in the learning curve on hitting.  Last year Juan Francisco looked to be another success of this type until June (April/May 275/365/596, 587 OPS in June, 851 in July), then total disaster in August/September (118/179/176, acceptable for a pitcher).  This year it is Chris Colabello who gets the 'is he another Bautista/Encarnacion' treatment with OPS by month of 986-752-714-1198, did not play in April.  Basically Colabello is doing the opposite of Francisco in August.  Cola's issue wasn't playing out of position as much as being stuck in Indy leagues where coaching would be weak one would think.  Sadly his BABIP of 403 doesn't appear sustainable long term but is fun this year.
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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#310310) #
Good news for sabermetrics fans:  Shapiro is said to be a big "analytics" guy.  Under his rule, Cleveland invested heavily in analytics and "integrated analytics into everything they do."  I guess most teams do this now, but Cleveland was one of the first and is said to be still one of the leaders.

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings#mlb-cle

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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#310313) #
Mark Shapiro on Moneyball, the movie.
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Alex Obal - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#310314) #
I've been looking forward to this week's series for a while. Cleveland is going to win the Central next year. They'd be the absolute last team I would want to see in the first round and I would not be opposed to the Blue Jays sweeping them to eliminate them from the playoff race for good.
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hypobole - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#310315) #
I appreciate the job AA has done more than most here and especially elsewhere, since most judge GM's by playoffs and championships.

AA has had a higher budget that a lot of teams, true, but it's also a budget that doesn't stretch as far as any other teams'. It was refreshing to hear Buehrle actually admitting there was no way he would have signed a FA contract with the Jays a few years back. I'm convinced many players feel likewise, just won't publicly admit it.

The Santana fiasco was telling. A budget set in stone where players had to restructure contracts to scrape together the money, then Santana deciding to sign with the Braves for the same amount as soon as that opportunity arose.

To finally get a winner here, AA had to almost drain the farm. Some holes will have to be plugged with FA's for a few years, and to maintain success, some of those FA's will be expensive. Even if they will sign here, will AA be given the budget to sign them here?

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Chuck - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#310317) #
What I'd like to know about Shapiro is the odd pronunciation of his last name (Shup-eye-ro rather than Shup-ee-ro or Shup-ih-ro). Is this really a "legitimate" alternate pronunciation or is this an Americanization such as the curious pronunciations of Belanger and Lajoie?

I hear Shup-eye-ro and it hurts my ears, like Eye-talian or Eye-raq.

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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#310319) #
I would not be opposed to the Blue Jays sweeping them to eliminate them from the playoff race for good.

Wow, really out on a limb there with that concession!  The Base Run standings have the Blue Jays at 80-50 leading the majors by 2.5 games over the Astros and Dodgers.  The Cardinals are 5 back with the Yankees 6.5 in arrears. The Royals at 69-61 trail the Indians by 1/2 a game in a tight AL Central Base Run race...In the conventional W/L standings, the Blue Jays trail the Royals by 6 games.  The Royals do have 7 games left with the Indians, but otherwise have a pretty soft schedule in September.
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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#310320) #
"....Mark Shapiro on Moneyball, the movie....."

He's right, it was a very inaccurate and Hollywoodized movie.  Didn't bear much resemblance to the realities of how baseball GMs actually operate.   I didn't enjoy the movie very much because I was always thinking, "This isn't right, this is exaggerated, this is a caricature of how baseball trades and scouting actually works."   Not that I've ever been in the room when GM and managers are discussing their personnel decisions, but it felt very false and exaggerated.
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Richard S.S. - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#310321) #
Alex Anthopoulos is the top GM (not yet resigned) on the Free Agent (Executive) Market. As such, he can ask for absolutely anything he wants, no matter what. Someone/Some Team will give it to him in a heartbeat.

What should he want?
Unlimited money, but will discuss entering "the paying of Luxury Tax area".
Carte Blanche on all decisions pertaining to Baseball Operations and Personnel.
Direct access to anyone he needs to speak with.
An absolute minimum of 5 years, with an opt out clause after every year, should it be needed.
An absolute minimum of $5.0 Million per year with annual raises of at least 12%.

If I'm A.A., I'll want at least close to this to stay in Toronto, and better guarantees than he's been given.

I'd be willing to work with a $155. Million Budget if I could always carry one player over and above this budget, not affecting the Budget and not going into Luxury Tax. (EG: Sign David Price $33-$34 Million per years over ??? number of years).
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#310323) #
Is this really a "legitimate" alternate pronunciation

Quoting a Lenny Bruce bit on a rabbi and a prostitute in an elevator, "who's to say vuts legitimate".  Wikipedia suggests that one theory of the etymology of Shapiro is that it comes originally from the Hebrew/Yiddish translation (Shpira) of Speyer, Germany where there was a lively Jewish community in medieval times (there's a fascinating exhibit on it at the Holocaust Museum in Berlin if you're interested).  The "i" in "shpira" would definitely not be pronounced as a long i in English, but the transition from Shpira to Shapiro already contains a linguistic transition- there are North American Jews named Speyer and this is probably the more faithful English translation.

I love the list of famous Shapiros- from famous scientists to mobsters, from conservative politicians to the drummer in Veruca Salt, from rabbis to pornographic actress, from baseball executive to stand-up comedian.  Lenny Bruce would be proud.
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Chuck - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#310326) #
Hopefully Barry Davis will ask the tough questions and get to the bottom of the long i. There is a fanbase that needs an explanation.
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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#310329) #
Elliott is reporting that the money is earmarked for "roof improvement, suites upgrades, fixing the exterior of Rogers Centre, exploring the ability to have real grass grow inside the dome, concourse improvements, new seats, renovating the now-dormant Hard Rock Cafe, and erecting a statue of Jays Hall of Famer Robbie Alomar outside the building."

This sure look a lot like "no real grass". 'Exploring' and 'installing' are very different. Nothing about tearing up the base, re-doing the wiring and plumbing, re-engineering the parking under the dome, re-designing the air system to deal with moisture, etc. $250-400 million sounds like a lot of money (because it is a lot of money) but I suspect the cost of re-engineering the building to install grass would dwarf that sum. Instead of a baseball park, it looks like we'll get a renovated SkyDome.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#310335) #
i tried to care about this Shapiro news but failed.
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Ryan Day - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#310338) #
Not that I've ever been in the room when GM and managers are discussing their personnel decisions, but it felt very false and exaggerated

Never mind the backroom stuff; I spent most of the film wondering if they were ever going to acknowledge the existence of Chavez, Tejada, Zito, Mulder, and Hudson. I think they eventually got around to it, but a non-baseball fan would be forgiven for thinking that Scott Hatteberg and Chad Bradford carried the team to a 103-win season.
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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#310340) #
Yep, exactly.  That movie was a gross simplification of what happened that season.
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electric carrot - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#310342) #
That movie was a gross simplification of what happened that season.

Movies are 2 hours long -- it depicted an entire season and tried to have us consider new metrics for how to view baseball statistics with a personal narrative to boot. If you want the whole story you're going to have to wait for the Ken Burns 10 part mini-series. But in two hours you're not going to get anymore about baseball stats and the full cast of  Oakland As characters than what you already saw, whether it's  Hollywood/Bollywood/Indy or Roger Corman.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#310343) #
yup. every good team has good players. that's not interesting. and that team wasn't good enough to make a movie about, anyways.

what that team will be remembered for will always be Billy Beane and his revolutionary embrace of metrics which have forever changed the game. if it weren't for that, the team wouldn't be remembered at all.

the horsetrading was obviously over the top, but then again provided some of the most entertaining scenes in the movie....and the general impression that Billy was a gm unusually unafraid of making bold moves unencumbered by the regular front office BS is probably mostly correct.
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Magpie - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#310349) #
All three in their mid 20s were at positions which challenged them defensively.

I was actually contemplating a piece on the three Late Bloomers! Just haven't had time to get beyond some very basic research.

I always believed that getting Encarnacion off 3b was a huge factor in his emergence as a hitter, but evidently there was some very productive off-season work on his swing that he did with Luis Mercedes that made a difference as well. He was 29 years old by the time this happened, had been around for 7 years and almost 80-0 games. I've been looking for footage of his Cincinnati days to try to figure out what's different.

I really don't think playing 3b was a problem for Bautista's development. He could handle the position. (The Jays, when he got here, just had other options.) Everybody who ever saw Jose Bautista hit knew what he needed to do to become a better hitter - it finally happened here, and by the time it did he was already 29 years old. As everyone must know by now, Bautista's road to Toronto was very long and very complicated - there were entire seasons lost to Rule 5 nonsense, injuries that ruined entire minor league seasons.

Donaldson was a high school shortstop, who played 3b in his first year at Auburn and started catching in his second year there. The Cubs, in their wisdom, decided to turn him into a catcher. Oakland left him there when they got him in the Harden trade, although he did play a little 3b in the minors. Donaldson only got a decent chance at a major league job when Scott Spiezio tore up his knee in spring training of 2012. The A's moved Donaldson back to 3b, gave him the job - and he gave it right back. He started the season 3-32, so they farmed him out. He tore the minor leagues apart, so they gave him another chance. He went 12-66, so they farmed him out again. The third time was the charm. They brought him back up in mid-August and he finally started hitting in the majors - .290/.356/.489 over the rest of the season. He turned 27 a couple of months after the season ended.
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#310350) #
Jose Bautista had a rather unusual development pattern, with positional changes being a part of it. He'd been in A ball as a third baseman at age 20-21, and had done pretty well, was injured at age 22 and played again in A ball for 165 not-too-successful at-bats.  He made his major league debut at age 23 without having played any high minors ball and had a little work in the outfield.   At age 24, he was back at third base in double A and hit well.  He started his age 25 season tin triple A, and was promoted to the big club early in the year.  He spent most of the season in the outfield, with most of that time in centerfield.  At age 26-27, he was back at third base. 

In his case, there are clearly several factors that affected his development- injuries, skipping of development levels, position changes and simple luck.  I'll agree that the position changes weren't as important for Bautista as they were for Encarnacion and Donaldson.  I don't think that it is an accident though that his breakthrough occurred in July-September period of the year that Bautista moved to the outfield permanently.  IT was an easier position for him and allowed (I think) more attention to being focused on batting.

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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#310352) #
not sold on the importance of the position change.

guys like ortiz and zobrist had similar late career surges and position had nothing to do with it.

and it's probably likely that any peripheral hitter in his late 20s goes through as many positions as he's capable of.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#310353) #
and looking at Donaldson, his breakout AAA season at 26 came when he was still mostly a C. he tranferred to 3B fulltime in mlb at 27 but didn't hit all that much until the next year.
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#310354) #
Ortiz is a classic example.  Ortiz was a bad defensive first baseman, and unlike Frank Thomas, wasn't able to reach his offensive potential until he became a (more or less) full-time DH.

Zobrist was a shortstop, who was a bit challenged defensively at that position.  He hit well in the minors (OBPs usually over .400 but without power) and he didn't fit "the profile" of a player at another position.  The Rays got him, valued the OBP, moved him off the position (although it did take a while) and he flourished.  Another repeating theme (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Ortiz, Zobrist) is the importance of a change in organization for certain players.  A similar example to Zobrist (at a lower level) would be Rance Mulliniks, a defensively challenged shortstop in the Angels and Royals organization with offensive abilities tilted to OBP.  He didn't thrive until age 27 when he came to the Blue Jays where he became a third baseman. 

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Magpie - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#310355) #
his breakout AAA season at 26 came when he was still mostly a C.

Well, you're talking about 2012 (he turned 27 that December), which wasn't really a AAA season. It was more like two stints (total of 51 games) between time spent on the major league team. And even in the minors he still played more games at 3b than behind the plate. He broke camp in 2012 as the major league 3b, didn't hit and got farmed out for a few weeks. They brought him back, he didn't hit again, so they farmed him out again, for longer this time. The third time he came up, he started to play like Josh Donaldson.
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Magpie - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#310356) #
Ortiz was a bad defensive first baseman, and unlike Frank Thomas, wasn't able to reach his offensive potential until he became a (more or less) full-time DH.

I dunno. Ortiz was mostly a DH for the Twins, and his last season in Minnesota and first season in Boston could very easily be two seasons from the same player. (Well, they were, after all.) Ortiz kept getting better and better, of course - I think Fenway had a lot to do with it. I think he learned things about hitting in that ballpark that ended up helping him everywhere.
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Sano - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#310357) #
Re: EE's change - I remember some articles from around the time of his breakout year saying that Mercedes (also Cano's hitting coach) had got him to switch to a two-handed follow through on his swing. That was the big difference apparently. Would be interested to see some side-by-side comparisons of his old and new swing though.
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Chuck - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#310358) #
two-handed follow through on his swing

This is something I consciously look out for since EE is one of the few remaining players to follow through the old fashioned way. But he doesn't do it all the time. Some of his homeruns have a one-handed follow through.

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hypobole - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#310359) #
The open stance for Edwin also started that off season as well, no?
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Nigel - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#310360) #
A small thought experiment for anyone who is interested. Suppose that the Jays have something like $30m to spend in the offseason (lets not get into any discussions about the likelihood of this - that isn't the point of this). Also suppose that the Jays let all their free agents walk but exercise all options (Bautista, EE and Dickey) and offer arbitration to all arbitration eligible players. That would leave a starting staff with Dickey, Stroman and Hutch. How would you conceptually spend the money? I will set out three suggestions (I am not interested in how likely any of the FAs are to come to TO (although I appreciate that in the real world that would drive these actual decisions)) all of which would buy you, in theory, between 4-5 WAR for your money.

Option A - sign an "ace" using all or almost all of the money - we'll put a name to this and say sign Price - this would tie up the $30m for 6-7 years likely

Option B - sign two pitchers likely to give you average to above average results - we'll put two names to this, say Buerhle and Leake - this is likely to tie up the $30m for a shorter period of time say 2-4 years

Option C - sign a top outfielder for $20-25m/year and find a starter in the "discount" aisle for the remainder - putting names to this it would be Jayson Heyward and Marco Estrada (circa 2014) - the position player would likely lock up a big chunk of the money for 5-7 years

Each of the options has pluses and minuses. Option B offers the least risk in that you spread your money over two players and likely locks up the money for less length. It lets you keep the bullpen largely "as is". Option A gives you the mythical ace but likely requires you to move one of Osuna or Sanchez into the rotation. This is high high risk as an ace's arm can go pop at any time. Option C is high risk in that it leaves the pitching staff exposed but you have less player risk (i.e. Heyward as a position player has less risk profile than a starter). Your outfielder might just take an ISO pop like Donaldson at Rogers Centre and move from very good to great and may offer you some other opportunities (i.e. moving Bautista to first; trading excess existing outfielders and an Alford/Pompey etc. for pitching).

What would you do?
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Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#310362) #
Until age 24, Ortiz was almost exclusively a first baseman in the minors and in the major leagues. Of course, there may have been other factors beyond the ballpark (and the position change)  that were important in his power explosion.  I am not suggesting that position changes are the whole story for late developing players.  Hell, Tony Gwynn had the best years of his career from age 34 to 37 and he was playing right-field the whole time (and it couldn't have gotten easier in his mid 30s in light of his size).  Barry Bonds had the best years of his career from ages 36 to 39 even though he was still playing leftfield. 
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ComebyDeanChance - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#310364) #
Of course, there may have been other factors beyond the ballpark (and the position change) that were important in his power explosion,

Indeed. Nicely put. Papi's career after joining career doper Manny Ramirez in Boston, took off like Roger Clemens' did once paired with career doper Jose Canseco in Toronto.
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China fan - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#310365) #
Nigel, in the scenario that you suggested, I think there's zero doubt that Option A is the best choice. If the Jays can afford to sign Price, they should do it, even if it means no money for any other free agent.  I'm fairly confident that at least one of Sanchez or Osuna will be good enough for the starting rotation.  Both will be stretched out in spring training, and the Jays can choose the one who seems best for the rotation, while choosing the other as the anchor for the bullpen.  The rotation would then become Price, Stroman, Dickey, Hutchison and either Sanchez or Osuna.  That's an excellent rotation, and the Jays probably won't suffer the April/May woes that they suffered this year.  As long as Bautista and Encarnacion are renewed for 2016, as seems virtually certain, the lineup will still be very very strong.  There is plenty of depth for the outfield with Bautista, Pillar, Pompey, and probably Saunders or Revere, depending on tender decisions.  The infield is strong with Travis back and Goins available. There's depth at 1B and DH with Encarnacion, Smoak and Colabello. There really wouldn't be a weakness in the lineup.  So, in sum, if they've got $30-million available for Price (probably annually for 6 or 7 years....), they should definitely try to sign him.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#310366) #
for me it's easily option A....as long as it's David Price.

i don't think there's another guy out there i'd spend $30m on, even cueto.
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Nigel - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#310367) #
I really do believe there are plusses and minuses to all three options. Interestingly, and this shows my bias towards long term deals for players and not pitchers, I slightly prefer B and C to A but I do understand the lure of the Ace.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#310369) #
I am a firm believer in stars'n'scrubs team management.....especially in terms of payroll.

mostly because i think there's no reason a good gm can't get quality production for cheap at the bottom of the lineup....as long as the bottom of the lineup stays completely flexible.

of course the stars have to be relatively low risk themselves, either in terms of skillset or in terms of money....and imo all the guys at the top of our roster fit that bill.

a $30m guy, then, has to be very safe skillset wise and imo there's not a safer pitcher than price both skillwise and healthwise for the next 4-5yrs at least.

i'd much rather rely on stroman hutch sanchez osuna as mid to low rotation guys than need them to be top of the rotation guys while we lock in money on the mid rotation guys.
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John Northey - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#310372) #
I'm very much a stars & scrubs guy too.  Just make sure you have enough stars to compensate for scrubs and that your scrubs aren't horrid (I'm looking at you Delgado/Halladay Jays).

We have no pitchers locked up for long term outside of kids who are 6 years committed to us like it or not.  I have no problem with taking a big risk on Price as he has shown he can do it in he AL East before and he seems to like it here which is always a big plus.

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Nigel - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#310374) #
Option C is a stars and scrubs approach just weighted to position players and not pitching. I would argue that a Heyward or Cespedes signing is totally in alignment with the Donaldson and Tulo deals (i.e. giving up on bulk assets for a position player that helps run prevention with premium defence and above average offence).
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Nigel - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#310375) #
I should also mention that I think its the one option that has significant upside to it. Price is great but he is what he is. There might be some upside to a premium bat coming to the Rogers Center. For example, Heyward might go from being a 4-5 WAR player to a 6-7 WAR player.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#310377) #
true, but call me old school but i still have a hard time with paying that kind of premium for defense.....especially defense in the corner OF. i see him as a russ martin type player....and $25m for that i'm not sure i'm comfy with.
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grjas - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#310381) #
No idea why you would do Option C unless you traded Bautista for pitching help. I think Option C is move Sanchez and Osuna into starting roles and buy some late inning help.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I'll be seriously pissed if AA hasn't learned his lesson about dicking around with the back end of his bullpen.
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uglyone - Monday, August 31 2015 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#310383) #
isn't the lesson that he did it right?
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