Thanks for the movie memory - a very underrated movie.

It's funny how that Sun article talks about everybody AA acquired this year except Saunders. 

I feel like we could be talking about the outfield a lot on this site this winter.

Smoak at first base and Pennington at second base with the lefty on the mound tonight.

Madison Bumgarner has given up as many runs as he has knocked in so far.

Madison Bumgarner has given up as many runs as he has knocked in so far.

No big deal! He's already done that twice this year. Whereas in his last start, he drove in more (2) than he allowed (0).

Per Hardball Talk, Madison Bumgarner is being outslugged in the NL only by Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt.

I believe Tulowitzki has yet to record a first-inning hit as a Blue Jay.

Mike Fiers is an inning away from a no-hitter.

I believe Tulo got a lead off hit in the Jays last game.

I believe Tulo got a lead off hit in the Jays last game.

You are correct, sir. I missed that game. I should have thought to have checked.

Mike Fiers is an inning away from a no-hitter.

Not anymore. Well done.

I believe Tulowitzki has yet to record a first-inning hit as a Blue Jay.

I'm pretty sure Tulo smashed the first pitch of the game into left field for a single against Adam Morgan on Wed in Philly.

Sorry, didn't see Gerry's comment below Chuck's.

Sorry for the double post.

I hope he was bunting for a hit...

I hope we exhaust the Angels bullpen to the last man.

For those who are just waking up now:  the Jays are back within a half-game of the Yankees, and they are now 4.5 games ahead of the Rangers and Orioles in the wild-card race. Another excellent game from David Price, while Mark Lowe (the only reliever needed) struck out the side in the 9th inning.  Donaldson outdid Trout with 2 doubles and a walk, while Trout was hitless.  A home run from Smoak; another hit from Encarnacion to keep his streak alive; and Ben Revere went 4-for-5 to break out of his slump.  Final score: 9-2.  Jays have now won 2 of 3 on this important road trip.

And one more detail from last night's game, just because I know it will provoke some debate here:  Gibbons had Sanchez warming up in the 9th inning with the Jays leading 8-1.  Lots of outrage and bafflement among fans on Twitter.  And the explanation from the Jays beat reporters:  Sanchez was probably getting some work in, since he has only pitched one inning since last Sunday.

To be honest, I don't think there's any real scientific answers on how much a reliever should pitch in order to stay sharp without being over-worked.  It must depend a lot on the pitcher, and it must depend a lot on the manager's intuition. I suspect Gibbons sees Sanchez as a crucial part of the Jays bullpen and wants him to stay very sharp.  He probably also feels that Sanchez has the kind of arm and delivery that isn't likely to be worn down by frequent use.  Is he right?  I guess we'll find out by the end of the season.   (I'm setting aside the separate argument about whether Sanchez has been over-worked since his return to the bullpen and the separate issue of warm-up pitches potentially putting strain on a pitcher, since we've already hashed over those arguments at great length in the recent past.)

Another issue, I suppose, is why Gibbons would have chosen Lowe in the 9th inning (with a huge lead) instead of Schultz (who has only pitched 2 innings since Aug. 12).  I guess it could be argued that this leaves Lowe unavailable for today's game, and Lowe is probably a better pitcher than Schultz, so it was an illogical move.  My own feeling is that the Jays are coming off a rest day and basically have everyone else available for today's game (Osuna, Sanchez, Hendriks, Cecil, Hawkins, Schultz) so it doesn't matter if Lowe is unavailable today.  And in a pinch, with only 15 pitches thrown last night, Lowe could be available too.  Giving an inning to Lowe last night also helped to keep him sharp for future appearances.

No lead is safe in Gibbons opinion. He always uses his best relievers to nail down a win, even if the Jays are up by a bunch.

He threw Lowe in there expecting him to give up a bunch of runs and got Sanchez ready for the save.

Lots of focus on the MVP race, but I think Price has a chance for the Cy Young if he keeps this up.

Or does being traded affects his chances?

I saw Sanchez warming up in the top of the 8th when it was 7-1, so, unsurprisingly, he was likely first man out if Price got into (more than 1 run(ner)'s worth of) trouble, and once Price finished the inning, the "lesser" Lowe was called upon.

"...He always uses his best relievers to nail down a win..."

But if that was Gibbons' thinking, why did he end up using Mark Lowe, one of his most under-utilized relievers?  Lowe is clearly in the bottom half of the Jays bullpen in terms of usage and in terms of Gibby's preferences.  Why get Sanchez up and then switch to Lowe, even though the basic situation hadn't changed at all?  (The lead was 7 runs when he had Sanchez warming up, and it was 7 runs when Lowe entered the game.) 

And I really don't think he was worried about a save situation suddenly cropping up, with the way Price was pitching. 

A six run lead was considered Sanchez time but a seven run lead wasn't? Anyway once again Gibbons falls slave to his usage pattern. There was no reason for Sanchez to touch the baseball considering his usage numbers since he came back from the DL. I agree with Gerry. No lead is considered safe for Gibbons to use his best releivers.

What's particularly impressive about the new look Jays is how well they have played during a tough schedule. They have now gone 11-4 since late july against division leaders and wild card competitors. If they can continue playing like this on the road, the sky is the limit.

I honestly don't get the worry about pitchers warming up. It seems to me that anyone playing professionally is going to warm up and throw nearly every day just for being around the team. Guys play long-toss, stretch, practice new grips and motions, work out at the gym, and so on. Warming up (particularly the early stages of warming up, which I doubt Sanchez got past last night) isn't at all like pitching in the game - that's why it's called warming up. You toss a ball around and get the muscles limbered up. I very much doubt it has much impact on injuries and fatigue.

Sanchez was probably warming up in case of an implosion. A six run lead doesn't look so great with the bases loaded and nobody out.

Around the issue of Gibbons pen usage. There are a few theories that posters have suggested.
1) fear manager
2) robotic manager, hard and fast rules for usage

I believe there's quite a bit of merit that Gibbons manages to reduce the amount of in game decisions he needs to make. He would prefer to lay out a road map for a given game. I'm not sure I buy into the theory that Gibbons wanted to keep Sanchez sharp. Because he usage patterns in the past hasn't shown that he likes consistent distribution in the pen. Rather that he has a few favorites and will go to the well as many times as possible.

great win to kick off an important road series and fans are talking about a guy tossing in the bullpen? truly bizarre.

and all this griping about a manager who has managed a pen that was supposed to suck into one of the best units in baseball.

August pen usage

Sanchez 9gms
Osuna 8
Lowe 7
Hendriks 6
Hawkins 6
Cecil 5
Schultz 3 / Loup 2

and all this talk about "favorites" and "slavish usage" and "overwork".

get a grip, people.

The bullpen did suck. Then they put a starter in there and traded for two very good relievers. Gibbons was the constant through this. The players changed is what makes the bullpen good not the manager. Winning isn't the only factor in grading a manager.

the bullpen never sucked, but did blow up in high leverage situations in April and May, thanks mainly to our only 2 proven relievers in cecil and loup. Gibbons at that point toolkmany bold steps to overhaul his usage, including demoting his onoy 2 experienced relievers, and since june the high leverage shenanigans have ended, and the bullpen has just been plain awesome overall.

and now with the new additions, the bullpen is amongst the elite of the elite, even though gibbons doesn't have the luxury of having the proven automatic late inning options that the other elite pens have.

"....A six run lead was considered Sanchez time but a seven run lead wasn't?...."

You missed the point.  I was suggesting that Gibbons wasn't intending to bring Sanchez into the game unless the situation changed dramatically.  A six-run lead wasn't Sanchez time, and a seven-run lead wasn't Sanchez time either.

Warming up pitchers taxes the pitcher just the same. Let's say the next two games in this series are close. We might want Sanchez fresh for those instead of having warmed him up in a game you didn't plan to pitch him in. The numbers were clear from the other thread. While some here don't think his numbers are high, if you project it to a full season it would be extremely heavy for a reliever in the modern era.

"...I honestly don't get the worry about pitchers warming up..."

I tend to agree with you on this.  Most of the warm-up pitches are far from full effort.  In fact the bullpen catcher isn't even crouching for most of the warm-up throws.  He's standing as he receives most of the pitches, because the pitcher is just loosening his arm, which presumably he does on most days anyway.  I suppose the last few pitches might be something close to full effort.  So if a pitcher throws 15 pitches in an appearance, you could add a few extra if you wanted to include the warm-up pitches.  But if he doesn't appear in the game, it's nothing like a proper outing.

Having said that, I think there is literature on this.  Some people in the past have cited a study or analysis suggesting that a reliever's strain is from the number of days on which he prepares to go into a game, rather than just the official outings.  If so, someone can feel free to cite it.  But there must be big differences in the type of outing.  Some warm-ups are more rigorous than others.  It's possible that Sanchez, last night, didn't throw at full intensity.  He might have just been loosening up.

Bullpen

APR: 102era- (20th), 94fip- (15th), 93xfip- (10th), -0.69wpa (23rd)
MAY: 90era- (15th), 94fip- (15th), 93xfip- (11th), -3.03wpa (30th)

mediocre pen that blew up in high lev thanks mainoy to cecil and loup, but also due to gibbons only significant bullpen error this year - naming and keeping castro closer despite poor underlying numbers.

JUN: 66era- (8th), 72fip- (3rd), 88xfip- (5th), +0.60wpa (13th)
JUL: 74era- (8th), 88fip- (12th), 75xfip- (2nd), -0.06wpa (14th)

re-jigged bullpen stops the high lev shenanigans, resulting in a thoroughly good pen top to bottom.

AUG: 55era- (3rd), 80fip- (6th), 78xfip- (3rd), 0.74wpa (11th)

with new additions, bullpen becomes an elite pen, even without having the proven elite relievers the other top pens have.

2JB, all your movie poster is missing is a little Banksy-type embellishment. There's an entire wall going wasted. I am brought to mind of this because of Dismaland.

Sorry all, off topic, I know. You may now return to your regular programming.

In other news, Griffin is reporting that the Jays will recall Thole in time for tomorrow's game.  They'll carry 3 catchers because of Martin's nagging injury.  In last night's game, Martin was clearly hobbled on the base paths, and the Jays lost a run because he couldn't advance normally on hits.  Navarro will play today, and Thole will presumably catch Dickey tomorrow, so Martin will get a few days off.

No word on who gets demoted to make room for Thole, but I'm guessing it will be Hague.  He still has options, and was mainly recalled for the NL games where there is more pinch-hitting required.  Unfortunately for his fans, Hague didn't get any plate appearances in his games this week, but he'll probably be back in the majors when rosters expand next month.

The bullpen was always ace in low leverage situations.

Loup has struggled all year long.  Castro struggled and was demoted. Cecil couldn't handle closing or being the main setup guy. Redmond was tried and returned. Jeff Francis as well. Colt Hynes. Coke, Jenkins and Rasmussen weren't here long enough to matter one way or another.

The bullpen discussion is simple. Separate low leverage and high leverage which are too very different animals as even the pitchers admit. Low leverage has been solid all season. High leverage did suck for the first couple of months, but AA and Gibbons fixed that as others have posted by moving up Osuna, Sanchez slides in with Price deal, and AA adds two solid relievers.

AA was playing with fire in his high leverage RP's at the beginning of the season especially with Sanchez moving to SP. He did get somewhat unlucky with Cecil and Loup but unbelievably lucky with Osuna (only two twenty year olds in 50 years have put up these sort of save numbers). 

One of the things I like about AA is he continues to analyze the team, and fixes his mistakes when he can. He did that big time in July with the RP's, as well as filling holes in SP and defence.

Not only did Gibbons use Lowe in a 9-2 game, he didn't find time to give Matt Hague a pinch hit. Hague could go back down without an AB.

No way any manager would consider Lowe unavailable today.

And when exactly did Sanchez get up and start throwing? Was it the bottom of the 8th while the Angels were still batting or the top of the 9th? I did watch the game, and remember seeing Sanchez throwing. I also remember being puzzled, but it was late and I'm old.

Sanchez was throwing in the top of the 8th while the Blue Jays were batting.

so mike fiers throws 134 pitches to get his no hitter last night. 

Let's say that was hutch out there (our most likely fiers comp, although it's pretty tenuous, I know).  does gibby let him finish that game?  should Fiers have been allowed to throw that many?

The Yankees game is 4 outs old and there have already been 3 homeruns that may not have left any other park.

great win to kick off an important road series and fans are talking about a guy tossing in the bullpen?

David Price instills the same confidence that Roy Halladay used to, where you're shocked by a bad performance and blase about yet another good one.

Brandon Morrow threw 137 pitches in that one hitter 5 years ago (yeah it's been that long).

I think you can pull the pitcher if he's only gone 7 hitless and already at some ridiculous pitch count. But if you don't pull him at that point, you can't do it later.

Interesting note on the upcoming series against Texas: they are the only team in either league with a record above .500 but with a losing record at home.

One other note: it is 7 years ago today that the Jays traded Robinson Diaz to Pittsburgh for Jose Bautista, which has to be the most one-sided trade ( for them ) in Blue Jay history.

Love all these pitching experts talking about Pitcher usage. Until Sanchez talks about why he was up, we'll never know why he was up. Speculating about it is fine, but complaining about it is useless. Sanchez did cost Price a win.

David Price is a great Pitcher who should be re-signed. He's a top Starter, a 6'6" Lefthander who's been healthy most of his career. Ten years and $330 Million should work. I don't worry about the first 8, just the last 2. If Randy Johnson can do it, so can he.

"Love all these pitching experts talking.....I don't worry about the first 8, just the last 2. If Randy Johnson can do it, so can he."

Welcome to the cabal of "pitching experts".

Thanks CDC, re: Sanchez warming up at the top of the 8th with the score still 7-1. Price was at 93 pitches; he was going to pitch the 8th, as he ended up doing.

If the Halo's started stringing some hits together, Gibby would have inserted Sanchez at some point in the 8th, and this time almost assuredly before the go-ahead run came to the plate.

If Price could get out the 8th relatively unscathed, Sanchez would sit down and Lowe would pitch the 9th.

Not optimal, but more defensible than some are making it out to be.

Prior to yesterday (August 21), Sanchez had pitched August 13, 14, 16 and 18.  In my view, he did not need work.  I would not have him warming with a 7-1 lead in the eighth inning.  It would have been perfectly acceptable to pull Price after 7 innings with a lead of that size and 93 pitches for an underused reliever- saving Price for more important work. 

When Travis and Stroman return, this is going to be one awfully good club.  As we know from 1987, it is possible to have the very best club in the major leagues and not make the playoffs. One of those seasons is more than enough, thank you very much.

Gibbons seems to think that because Price is an ace, he always has to pitch late into the game (for example, in game one of the recent series against the Yankees in Toronto, and again last night). I would have pulled Price after seven innings for the reason Mike mentioned.

It's similar to the concern I expressed about Martin before the season. I suspected that Gibbons might use him excessively on the basis that he was a shiny new toy who had just signed a big contract - which is pretty much what ended up happening (not just the number of games he's played, but also the toll of catching Dickey), and now he's hobbled.

It's not inconceivable that the Jays will make it all the way to the World Series. If you were the manager (or GM) of the Jays, wouldn't you want a high-performing Price and Martin (and Donaldson, Bautista, and other core players) at that point, instead of a bunch of burned out and injured veterans?

I'm guessing Gibbons really wants to lock down the playoffs or a WC spot, and will worry about subsequent playoff games if and when he attains that goal.

Mike, I mentioned being surprised seeing Sanchez throwing, because I was expecting a Hendriks or Lowe appearance in the 8th.

But Gibby was given the Price toy to play with, the coolest toy he's had since his Doc toy 7 years ago, and he's going to play with it as much as possible.

Warming up pitchers taxes the pitcher just the same.

It might for some pitchers, but definitely not for all of them. They're all different. Some guys know how to get themselves hot and ready throwing 10 pitches. Some guys need to throw 30 or 40. Sometimes a guy is preparing to come into a game. Sometimes he's semi soft-tossing, in the event that he may be asked to get ready in a few minutes. Sometimes he's working on something. Sometimes he's just playing catch in a dull moment.

So, does anybody here respect Gibbons, or is he merely viewed as a guy that spends too much time with the shinier of his toys?

Managers like playing with toys.

My view on Gibby is that the sum of his actions is positive. He certainly has his flaws: underappreciation of defense, being prone to fixation on players etc... but I don't think he needs to be replaced yet.

"....a bunch of burned out and injured veterans...."

It's really a stretch, and unfair, to imply that Gibbons is on the verge of "burning out and injuring" his veterans.  Martin and Price aren't being used excessively, based on their normal usage and based on the norms for other similar players.  Fans are so quick to think that they can pinpoint the cause of an injury, and to blame it simplistically on a manager or a trainer or some other easy target. Injuries happen to nearly every baseball player at some time or other, and a catcher is obviously among the most likely to get an injury at some point in a season.  Baseball players often have nagging injuries that bother them, but that don't necessarily affect their production.  It doesn't mean that they will be "burned out and injured" before the playoffs. If we put players on the DL as soon as they are bothered by a minor injury, the Jays wouldn't have had Bautista and Encarnacion in their lineup for most of this season, and they wouldn't be challenging for first place. 

That is certainly one point of view on the matter.

What's the point of saving your bullets for the playoffs if you don't make the playoffs? I think common sense has to prevail and sometimes that means playing hurt and sometimes not. Lots of factors to consider. The player and his age, the injury and the replacement available at least all have to be considered.

Ceebee, do you think Price needed to pitch the eighth inning last night to help ensure the Jays make the playoffs?

I suspect that Gibbons lets players decide when they'll play (to a certain extent, of course). I think most players will choose to play as much as possible. For instance, I expect Price wanted to go out for the 8th so Gibbons let him. I also expect Martin hasn't wanted any time off (especially after that interview the other day), with a day off from Dickey being the exception.

I tend to think it's a solid strategy, and perhaps part of the reason players seem to like Gibbons. As well, considering performance I'd say that a hobbled is likely at least equal to a healthy Navarro.

Why didn't they just say the game was to start at 9:35 instead of 9:05? I just listened to more Gregg Zaun than I ever want to admit.

I don't see the big deal with Price pitching the 8th. He's not hurt. He was at only 93 pitches after 7. He was coming off 6 days rest. The only argument for not pitching him in the 8th would be to give a reliever some work, or if you were planning to have him pitch on 3 days rest his next start.

gf, no to Price in the 8th but i was referring to players playing hurt or banged up.

price is not getting pulled on 93 pitches when dominating. it's never goong to happen.

might as well complain that gibby didn't pull Bautista out of the game in the 8th.

you guys are just making things up to complain about now.

I'm in awe

Billy Beane should agree to come onboard as Beeston's replacement because this would give him the opportunity to appreciate Donaldson up close. Once again. #MoneyMVPBall

Donaldson stating his case for M.V.P.

See, that's why Scocia is better than Gibby. He doesn't let his starters pitch the 8th..... or the 7th, or the 6th, or the 5th.

Having to pitch against these guys must be exhausting.

We want Hague! We want Hague!

Impressive display today... I am in awe of Donaldson.

A classy manager would find a way to throw Hague an AB in there before he sends him down.

Tomorrow is an after game, so you could give some guys some rest after the 7th.

I certainly wouldn't mind giving Donaldson or Bautisa an occasional day off to keep them fresh, although likely not needed this week with two off days already.

Go Hague Go!

Matt Hague gets his at bat. We can stop obsessing now, or as usual, find something new to needlessly obsess about.

New obsession: Donaldson doesn't bunt enough.

Especially for a guy batting second! It makes it so much harder for Bautista to drive Tulo home from third on a sac fly.... Wait a second, has that Tulo guy ever stolen second after drawing a walk?  Gets on base?  Works the count?  Takes the first pitch?  Fundamentals people!

Yes. Good times.

It wasn't a great night for Estrada. 5 hits, 2 HR. And Gibby sent all the unloved relievers out there to see what it's like.
Yet Trout had another 0 for 3 with 2 punch outs.

Donaldson now has more fWAR (7.1) than Trout does (6.8).

A few weeks ago, some commentators confidently asserted that Trout would win the MVP award this year. To me, it looks as if Donaldson has pulled ahead in the MVP race.

Now that Revere has started hitting, I wonder if Gibby will consider moving him up to be a more conventional lead-off hitter and drop Tulo down to a possibly more comfortable 5th or 6th in an attempt to get his bat going.

Fun SSS fact - In the past 30 days with the Jays, Goins is leading Tulo in all 3 of BA, OBP and SLG.

Also the past 30 days (min 50 PA) Jays have 3 hitters in the top 7% in MLB:

Donaldson 5th of 287 (218 wRC+)
Edwin 9th (200 wRC+)
Cola 19th (172 wRC+)

Random thoughts on a Sunday morning:

People on the Internet were complaining a lot about the Jays in 1992 and 1993 too. And John Gibbons is getting off relatively lightly compared to what they were saying about Cito back in the day. (In the immortal words of Rocky Bridges: "There are three things the average man thinks he can do better than everybody else: build a fire, run a motel and manage a baseball team.")

Mike Trout is having a bad August: .176 with one home run. Which leads me to wonder whether he is playing through an injury. At this point, I'd rate Donaldson as the MVP favourite, partly because Trout won it last year. Voters tend not to want to give the MVP to the same guy two years in a row unless it's obvious that he's way better than anyone else.

The Jays are now leading the league in runs scored by 76 runs. The difference between the Jays and the second-place Yankees is greater than the difference between the Yankees and league average. Um, wow.

The Jays are in a state of moral hazard when dealing with David Price. It's in their best interest to work him as hard as possible to improve their chance of reaching the postseason. But if they work him too hard, he might injure his arm, which would cost him tens of millions of dollars. The pitch count totals for his time with the Jays are comparable with his last few starts with Detroit, so I don't think that Gibbons can be faulted:

TOR: 119, 110, 112, 109
DET: 114, 117, 113, 116, 108

Also, Price, like most major-league athletes, is a competitor. He probably wants to stay out there for as long as he possibly can; it's up to the manager to rein in that competitive instinct.

I'm sure that Matt Hague is grateful for the at-bat, but I'm also sure that he would be perfectly happy to stay in The Show for as long as possible, even if he just sat on the bench. Major-league salaries are so much greater than minor-league salaries that even a few days up can make a huge difference to a player's earnings for the year.

Now that Revere has started hitting, I wonder if Gibby will consider moving him up to be a more conventional lead-off hitter and drop Tulo down to a possibly more comfortable 5th or 6th in an attempt to get his bat going.

I was thinking the same, but it's worth bearing in mind that a "hitting" Revere (670 lifetime OPS, 632 as a Jay) is no better than a slumping Tulowitzki (682 as a Jay).

A few weeks ago, some commentators confidently asserted that Trout would win the MVP award this year.

I was definitely one and am still leaning in that direction, though concede that the waters have become very murky.

I really wonder, though, how much WAR is considered by the voters. Trout's defense hurts his WAR and doesn't align with the perception of him as a gold glove caliber center fielder (even if he didn't actually win it last year). So if the voters elect to give Trout an edge defensively due to position, or even consider their defensive value to be roughly the same, we're down to looking at offense.

I don't think Donaldson will be able to match Trout for rate stats but will clobber him in RBI, something that I think matters much less now than it used to, but still may matter to many.

All that said, Donaldson has an ace up his sleeve: the narrative. And that may be what matters most in defeating Trout. The Angels miss the playoffs while Donaldson leads the Blue Jays to a division title, for the first time in two decades, after being so many games behind the Yankees, and appearing in countless video reels throughout the second half... that will warm the cockles of the voters' hearts.

With the Jays doing so brilliantly in the past two games, we're almost running out of things to criticize and debate!  So thanks to Dave, hypobole and greenfrog for suggesting some new topics for discussion. 

Donaldson vs Trout is a fascinating question.  Trout might have a slight edge on defense, since CF is considered more difficult than 3B.  On the other hand, defence is incorporated in WAR calculations, and WAR is now showing Donaldson ahead.  If the Jays make the playoffs and the Angels don't (or if the Jays win their division and the Angels only make the wild card), you'd think Donaldson would have an edge.  But it's interesting to see the formal definition of MVP for the official voters -- it doesn't make any reference to the team's success.  A great player on a poor team should have as much of a chance as a great player on a great team.  The guidelines, by the way, were written in 1931 and have never been updated since then.  They even include some old-fashioned notions of "character" and "loyalty" which are completely impossible to measure. Here are the MVP criteria, as explained in official guidelines to the voters:

1.  Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

2.  Number of games played.

3.  General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

"....There are three things the average man thinks he can do better than everybody else: build a fire, run a motel and manage a baseball team...."

This is excellent.

"....Donaldson has an ace up his sleeve: the narrative...."

Good point.  And that might be enough to spell the difference in the MVP voting.

Some people dismiss Donaldson RBI numbers because he is playing on such a strong team, but he bats second.
Trout has a better OBP, but maybe he wouldn't be walking as much if he had Bautista and Encarnation hitting behind him.

Hague wanted to be released to play overseas--Korea I think--but AA refused and told him those opportunity will always be there and that he wanted him as depth. It's better to be able to say "I only got one at-bat but it was against Huston Street" than "I only got to sit on the bench".

Chuck, you're right, the Revere move won't do anything to get a better OPS at the top of the lineup, but as I suggested, the purpose would be to potentially take a bit of pressure off Tulo at the dish to get him going.

Haven't watched a lot of Rockies games, but those I've seen, Tulo had far fewer not good at bats. I'd like to see Tulo being Tulo once again rather than the Tulo being Goins we've been seeing lately.

Dave Till brought up a good point re" Hague.

Which would be better, Being an everyday player in the majors but only for 2 weeks before being sent back down, or getting less than half the playing time and sitting on a major league bench for 2 months?

Especially for a guy like Hague, with comparatively little in the way of career earnings, I would assume the latter.

"....Cola 19th (172 wRC+)...."

I didn't see the game last night, but some people on Twitter were praising Colabello's defensive plays at 1B.  Did anyone agree, or was it a fluke?  Admittedly I've often seen him look bad at 1B too.  And I love Smoak's defense at 1B.  But the offensive gap between Colabello and Smoak is becoming very stark.  The offense takes a real hit when Smoak is in the lineup and Colabello is on the bench.  Everyone remembers a few of Smoak's dramatically timed HRs, but Colabello is still outslugging him (.521 vs .443).  More importantly, Cola gets on base far more often  (.372 vs .287).  Yeah, I agree that it's great to have an excellent defensive 1B, and I agree that the defense is much better when Smoak is out there.  But when Smoak is in the lineup and Colabello is sitting, the Jays are losing a hundred points of OBP, and that's a loss that could hurt them in a low-scoring game.

cola had a very good gamr in the field. of course, he wasn't forced to dig out any low throws this time.

And on a completely different note, did anyone know who Logan Forsythe was before this year? Tampa seems terrific at identifying hidden gems. Maybe not diamonds, but precious stones, nonetheless.

"....the purpose would be to potentially take a bit of pressure off Tulo at the dish to get him going...."

I agree that Tulo's poor hitting with the Jays has been mysterious and frustrating, and it is tempting to look for a psychological explanation associated with his unfamiliar role at the top of the lineup.  But if we're talking about "pressure" as the explanation, wouldn't there be just as much pressure on him in the middle of the lineup, with runners on base and everyone expecting Tulo to drive them in?  If there is any pressure on him now, I suspect it is entirely self-imposed because he is trying a little too hard to show his new teammates that he can hit, and that won't change if his lineup spot is shifted.  But ultimately I don't think the "pressure" argument is a strong one. This guy has spent 10 seasons in the majors and he's been in the playoffs twice.  He's a five-time all-star who has been expected to carry his team for most of his career. He's seen more pressure than most players.  I can't imagine that the pressure he's feeling now is worse than what he has felt many times before.  I think it's just the kind of slump that many hitters go through, and he'll come out of it soon, regardless of where in the lineup he is hitting.

Slugging, RISP, AL. #1-#5 J. D Martinez, Trout, Cabrera, Vogt, Donaldson.
wRC+, Trout, Cabrera, Donaldson, Martinez, Abreu.

Slugging, Men on base Cabrera, Donaldson, Martinez, Morales, Davis. #8 Bautista, # 9 Edwin, #10 Brett Gardner!!!!!, #13 Trout
wRC+ Cabrera, Donaldson, Zobrist, Abreu, Davis, #7 Trout.

The narrative surely favours Donaldson right now for MVP.  When we made the big splash at the trade deadline, the thought first crossed my mind, but now that we are a juggernaut, I think he might even run away with it ...

Is Donaldson possibly having the best season by a position player in Jays history?  

CF, when things are going badly, try something different. When things are going well, keep doing what you're doing.

Is that better than using the word "pressure"?

but as I suggested, the purpose would be to potentially take a bit of pressure off Tulo at the dish to get him going.

I recall an interview with Tulowitzki after his first game as a Jay. He presumed (not based on what anyone said) that he was batting first temporarily and that Gibbons would probably bat him second. He was likely unaware that Donaldson had settled nicely into the 2-hole and wasn't about to move for anyone, but was aware that having Bautista and Encarnacion around meant that slots 3 and 4 were likely unavailable (which is why he said 2 rather than 3 or 4).

I am certainly reading between the lines and might be way off, but I got the sense that he didn't really see himself as a leadoff hitter, and that career 3/4 hitters see it as a demotion of sorts. The 2-hole has become a tolerable home for power hitters since there's still the potential for a first inning RBI and you can approach the role with he-man vigor and not the cliched scrappiness of a 5'8" leadoff man.

Back to Tulo. He won't complain about batting leadoff and my guess is that he will tolerate it for the remainder of the season (new guy on a team doing well, no need to rock the boat), but would expect a different role starting next year (and might discreetly bring this up in off-season talks with management).

Now, whether my potentially imagined impression that he dislikes the leadoff spot is in any way behind his struggles, that is unknowable. If he were moved to a different spot in the order, he might start hitting just because he is better than he has shown. It might not have anything to do with being moved at all.

I think we'll be seeing the same top four for the balance of this season, but I'd be surprised if that was Plan A at the start of next season. Unless they win the World Series or something.

"....when things are going badly, try something different...."

Yes, that's a better argument for shifting Tulo to a different lineup spot, in my view.  Shake things up, shift things around.

But alternatively, if Gibbons feels that Tulo is having good at-bats and making good contact and mostly just suffering from bad luck, he might be convinced that Tulo is on the verge of turning it around.  If he's on the cusp of regressing to his career norms, why not leave him at the lead-off spot?

Tulo's OPS as a Blue Jay:  .682.
Tulo's career OPS:  .881

How likely is it that Tulo will keep hitting so far below his career norms?  Doesn't seem at all probable.  It just seems extremely likely that he'll soon revert to his career pattern, or even to his 2015 hitting performance before the trade (OPS of .818 with Colorado this year).  If that's likely to happen soon, and I suspect it is, then there's really no need to switch him in the lineup.

One factor keeping Tulowitzki entrenched in the leadoff spot is that there really are no other obvious alternatives.

Ben Revere only looks like a leadoff hitter if you squint like crazy, but a career OBP of .326 unaccompanied by power says 9, not 1. I really hate the idea of guaranteeing him the most AB of anyone in the lineup.

As an aside, Ben Revere is not a whole lot different than Jose Reyes at this stage in his career. Same kind of OBP/SLG profile, same running profile. Jose Reyes has the pedigree of a once great leadoff hitter but that seems to have warn off since even the Rockies are not using him in that role.

p.s. our lineup just scored 24 runs in 2gms and 36 in 4. i'd leave it be, myself.

Somebody has to bat leadoff, if Tulo is dropped down.
Is Cola's OBP good enough Chuck? :)

I can't see Gibby thinking Tulo is having good AB's.

Looking at what's different between Col/Tor this year, Tulo is making significantly more contact on pitches outside the strike zone, and significantly less on pitches in the zone, to the point where his Z-contact% is actually lower than his OZ-contact%. This has also greatly reduced his hard-hit ball%.

It seems to me he's so intent on working the count to get on base for the sluggers behind him, he's losing out on driving the ball.

uglyone, as I pointed out last night, now that Hague finally has his PA, I have to find something new to needlessly obsess about.

Two Zaun(y) things...

I really enjoyed Zaun's breakdown of Tulo's swing and what he needed to correct to get back to really producing. Also, Zaun (YES ZAUN) at one point said "IF" the season ended today Donaldson would be the MVP.

As to Price being resigned... judging who might be available (and at what costs) - I see we have FOUR choices: 1) Price at $30 large per year for more years than make any sense. 2) Two 15 million guys for a more reasonable number of years. 3) a 20 guy and a 10 guy. 4) We go with: Stroman, Hutch, Osuna (even though he has not thrown near enough this year to be in the rotation next year), Sanchez (same caveat as Osuna) and perhaps Estrada as a 10 large signing for three years(ish)... Given our situation I'm thinking 2) and 3) above make more sense than Price. Unless - Team Rogers decides to open the bank and vomit out some serious dosh. Ya, I know, ain't never gonna happen.

"....It seems to me he's so intent on working the count to get on base for the sluggers behind him, he's losing out on driving the ball...."

Perhaps so, but he's seeing 3.87 pitches per plate appearance for Toronto, whereas he was seeing 3.94 pitches per plate appearance in Colorado this year.

On the other hand, I suspect Pit/PA is not a great indicator of the quality of a hitter's ABs.  For example, subjectively I feel Colabello has better ABs than Smoak, and I'm always getting the impression that Colabello is working the count and battling the pitcher for long ABs, yet when I checked the numbers I was surprised to see that Smoak has more Pit/PA than Colabello.  So hypobole's analysis of contact rate for pitches in and out of the strike zone might be a better metric.

Tulo has started 20gms for us.

GMS 01-10: 49pa, 10.2bb%, 18.4k%, .267babip, .262avg, .262iso, 148wrc+
GMS 11-20: 46pa, 8.7bb%, 26.1k%, .214babip, .150avg, .050iwo, 33wrc+

didn't seem to mind hitting leadoff the first 10gms.

Right.  So it's a 10-game slump.  The kind of mini-slump that almost every hitter goes through, even the very good ones.   He will bounce back.

Chuck, i don't think it's that hard to get players to buy into Sabremetric ideas.  "We want you batting leadoff because we want you getting the most ABs".  Easy. 

Especially with a 'modern' team that is doing so well with its modern approach.  Whether we are a 'modern' team is debatable, but I certainly think there is plenty of evidence that we are. 

Good move to call up Thole.  Hutchison gets the rehab start today.  Stroman's recovery continues apace. All kinds of good news, aside from the simple pleasures of 9-2 and 15-3 wins on the road against a pennant contender.  This is a very good club that is getting better.

The BaseRun standings provide a good measure of the quality of a club.  The Blue Jays lead the BaseRun standings by a game over the Astros and Dodgers.  The Jays, of course, improved the most at the deadline, and so the seasonal line is an understatement of where they stand as compared with the other clubs.  

Sanchez and Osuna both last pitched on August 18.  With the off-day tomorrow, I imagine that we will see both today.  Dickey's job is to give them 6 good innings. 

I'm more ADD than OCD, so I'll be dropping the Tulo thing, but dividing it 10/10 is a bit disingenuous. His first game he had 2 doubles and a HR.

In the 19 games since - 2 doubles, 2 HR and batting .182/.300/.286.

He'll either start hitting or be moved out of the leadoff spot by months end.

It feels pretty amazing to be a Jays fan right now. This might be the best Jays team ever (certainly it's one of the top four or five). With Stroman and (hopefully) Travis back in September, the roster is going to be overflowing with talent.

If we've learned anything over the last two decades, it's that now is the time to savour every moment.

Good move to call up Thole. Hutchison gets the rehab start today.

Great move, actually.

I found your use of "rehab" sardonically amusing for a non-injury demotion. "Hi, my name is Drew and I was addicted to giving up early-inning hits"

"....With Stroman and (hopefully) Travis back in September, the roster is going to be overflowing with talent...."

Travis is the only negative at the moment.  He's not making progress in recovering from his injury, and he still hasn't picked up a bat.  And he's seeing another doctor in Texas next week for a second opinion.  It seems increasingly unlikely that he'll be back with the Jays any time soon.  Maybe not at all this year. 

But imagine the current lineup with Travis instead of Goins or Pennington.  Imagine it, also, with Saunders firing on all cylinders (like his .791 OPS of last season) and with Revere as the 4th outfielder.  The lineup would be an incredible powerhouse.  Well, it already is, but even more so. Maybe we'll see that lineup next year.

hypobole i actually don't mind the leadoff discussion and do believe that the biggest issue with lineup construction is the players' mental approach.

But i have a hard time seeing an elite vet like tulo being that mentally weak. Even if you want to stretch his cold streak back further than 10 gms....let's say 15gms it's still not a long one.

the other issue is that i agree with gibbons in wanting to keep the top of the order relatively stable and leave platoons for the bottom.....and since cola is the only other guy i'd like to see leadoff i get why as a part time guy gibbons would be hesitant to make that switch.

then again, with every game, no matter which guy is playing it seems the gap between cola and smoak is growing, so maybe cola should be a fulltime player after all.

of note, cola has added almost a full win above replacement since he last played LF. and in his small sample at 1B/DH he's produced at around a 4war pace, which is actually really damn good.

it might be time for smoak to be considered a defensive replacement and good switch hitting pinch hitter.

and man would it be cool to have the innovative manager that hit colabello leadoff.

and i'm usually positive about injury recoveries but i'm pretty pessimistic about Travis coming back this year.

heck, we don't even know what his injury is.

all i know is that a fracture would have healed weeks ago.

Indians up 2-1. Sabathia pulled with 2 outs in the 3rd. Had walked 4, but that seems a bit of a quick hook.

Might be something like an injured rotator cuff. Those can take a long time to heal.

Just checked the box score. Right knee injury for CC. Is the rotator cuff in the right or left knee?

Suddenly dawns on hypobole greenfrog was making a serious comment about Devon's shoulder and not joking about Sabathia's removal.

Hutch's rehab start today: 4.0 innings, 3hits 2runs 1hr 3bb 4so. Bisons haven't scored so far (top nine). I sure wish he'd had a better start.

Check this out when you have time. Another terrific Sunday Notes at FG.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-saber-seminar-backup-sliders-gose-more/

In the first, Dickey throws 39 pitches. Only 1 is a swing and miss.

Why not Revere leading off? He led the NL in hits last year, had 49 stolen bases, is not injury prone, and is only in his age 27 season. Comparing him to a 32-year old Reyes on his last legs does not make sense except as nostalgia for the incredible Reyes of the early naughts. As a table-setter, Revere makes tonnes of sense while Travis is on the shelf.

P.S. Dickey is so painful to watch when his stuff is hittable. Hopefully this will be yet another high scoring affair.

HBP? Did it hurt the poor boy? Triple and SF clears the bases trailing 2-1 with one out. The rest of that inning doesn't make sense. R.A. can stink it up with the best of them, but never that bad.

can a ball hitting your collarbone injure your rotator cuff? (honest question)

can a ball hitting your collarbone injure your rotator cuff? (honest question)

Apparently (vacuous answer).

This team is relentless.

The Angels are not making it easy on themselves.

No doubt JB21 but with the way the Angels are booting the ball around the field (for all 3 games in fact) it feels like they placed some bets against themselves. That and/or Aybar has been taking defensive lessons from Reyes.

Yankees lose. Tied for 1st.

Agreed! All weekend.

Oh my goodness

So... the bats are heating up again.

relentless! pity the opposing pitchers.
Well not really.

On a positive note for Scioscia, his starter made it out of the 4th.

Hey Gibby, don't forget you have a bullpen.

Tulo hasn't taken his offensive woes to the field. Smart play, smart challenge.

And a nice play by Pillar to make it close.

#CanadianRakin'

Thank you Cleveland!

encouraging stuff from pillar this series. hopefully he's just super duper streaky.

I have to say that I am really impressed with Goins' newfound plate discipline. He's OBPing .360 in his last 71 AB and continues to improve - an astounding .396 OBP over his last 39 AB despite a mediocre .256 batting average. Obviously this kind of walk rate isn't long-term sustainable, but if he's been doing something different at the plate, it sure is working for him.

Dickey toughs out 6 innings, with more than a bit of help from the D.

Question. If I post something and Bucky shortly after says exactly the same thing, should I feel validated or start working on new cliches?

I think you know the answer to that question hypobole. Although, as they say, a broken clock is correct twice a day.

Yeah I'm also pessimistic about seeing Travis again this year. It's too bad; the lineup would be even that much better with him.

This could be the nailing of that coffin. Their bullpen is done.

Goins with another double?
#canadian rakin'

This team is a juggernaut.

Back in first.

That has got to be the best Jays series in LA. Ever.

And the remaining crowd cheers for the sweep. Canadian rakin'!

The Yanks play tomorrow, so they'll either tie or go down by a full game.

Sioscia is the MLB manager with the most seniority having been hired in another millennium.

+164

Gone all day. Did I miss anything?

Nice Morrissian effort by Dickey. Pitch to the score, man.

It seems everyone is happy. Well, almost everyone.

Thank you Cleveland!

Indeed.

In August:

Donaldson .342/.433/.776
Bautista .292/.333/.670
Encarnacion .407/.464/.797

So...yeah, good luck with that, pitchers.

To further a point Parker made about Goins, it looks like he's having multiple good PA's each game. Just watching his approach, it seems his "why did you swing at that?" moments are closer to once a game than each AB (I'm looking at you Pillar).

Goins appears to be looking for pitches to drive and if he doesn't get one, he'll just leave the bat on his shoulder. If pitchers can hit the edges it's a called K, but he's willing to take that trade-off since even when he hits those pitches, it's weak contact anyway.

I'm probably making stuff up, but that is how it looks to me.

I mentioned this much earlier, but for those who didn't read pre-game comments, highly recommend going to Fangraphs and checking out the Sunday Notes.

The Big Red Machine also was great defensively-Bench, Morgan, Concepcion, Geronimo down the middle of the diamond was probably a smidgen better than Martin, Goins, Tulowitzki and Pillar, but they didn't have Josh Donaldson at third base.  Smoak is a fine defender as well.

Texas sends Derek Holland, a left-hander, to face the Jays on Tuesday.  The club was hitting .285/.357/.468 against portsiders.  The odds are ever in their favour...

hypobole, i don't think you're making that up.

i've been a vocal critic of goins even being a bench player for us.....but this new patience he's exhibited over the last couple of months is starting to get real interesting.

he's already got his offense up to a level where his D makes him a legit above replacememt player. if it keeps improving then yeah he turns into a real player.

It might be interesting to note that with today's game, Tulowitzki is hitting .283 (approaching more normal numbers) and Revere is hitting .295 (also approaching more normal numbers).

Drew Hutchison pitched poorly: 4.0 IP, 3 Hits, 2 Runs/Earned Runs, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR and a Balk. One hopes Stroman continues successfully with his miracle recovery. One hopes he's not needed or just not too soon.

Patience is a virtue. For a defensive player on an offensive team, just getting the pitcher to go deep in the count is very helpful.

.281 is Tulowitzki's combined average.  He is still only hitting .218 as a Jay.

Some disconnected thoughts...

After the 5-run first, Dickey allowed 4 singles, a double, and a walk over the next 5 innings. 4 of those 6 baserunners were erased by the defence. It's very satisfying to see a team executing like this, and it stood out in contrast to the Angels who generally seemed sloppy.

---

Don't know if this is a franchise record, but I find it very impressive: over the 3-game series the Jays scored in 17 of 27 innings. Relentless, indeed.

---

With the 3 blowouts in a row, Gibbons looks pretty smart in his bullpen management. Each of the 7 relievers made a 1-inning appearance, and Cecil made a second appearance where he faced 2 batters.

---

"Texas sends Derek Holland, a left-hander, to face the Jays on Tuesday. The club was hitting .285/.357/.468 against portsiders. The odds are ever in their favour..."

It also works out nicely for the Jays that the lefties Buehrle and Price each get a start in Texas. Adrian Beltre is a shadow of his normal self this year, and the rest of the decent hitters on the Rangers all bat left - Fielder, Choo, Odor, Moreland. They did recently acquire Mike Napoli, who has come back to life in his first 11 games there.

It seems that 32 runs  is a record for a 3 game series.

36 runs even. And it is a new franchise record, passing the 34 they scored vs. Boston May 30 - June 1 2003.

Also a record with 48 hits.

With the 3 blowouts in a row, Gibbons looks pretty smart in his bullpen management. Each of the 7 relievers made a 1-inning appearance, and Cecil made a second appearance where he faced 2 batters.

No manager has trouble manager the pen in blowouts. Especially before an off day.

Trying to figure out how much of Chris Colabello's improved batting line is due to skill and how much is due to luck is tough.  He's got a .406 BABIP.  Babe Ruth did that but just about nobody else.  His BABIP on ground balls and fly balls is better than MLB average but credibly due to simply hitting the ball harder than average (.132 on fly balls vs. .072 league average; .271 on ground balls vs. .249 league average.) The big item is his BABIP on line drives- his is .849 vs. a MLB average of .615.  That is surely in signiificant part to luck. Giancarlo Stanton hits the ball harder than anyone and does hit the ball over the diamond- his career BABIP on line drives is .769.  Colabello probably has 5-10 hits this year that come from just not hitting line drives at people; 10 singles would be a BABIP of .700 on line drives.  If you take away 10 singles from him, he would be posting a .292/.336/.483 line (much higher than any of the rest-of-season projections for him).  The figures could indeed be higher. 

It's funny because Smoak is the polar opposite.  He's got a .243 BABIP despite a high line drive rate and many hard-hit balls.  Amazingly, his BABIP is below average even when he hits the ball the other way against the shift. 

my amateur eye tells me his frank thomas / joey votto / miguel cabrera type approach - i.e. all fields contact approach backed by huge natural power - is the kind of thing that supports a high babip.

maybe not .400babip but maybe somewhere in the mid 300s somewhere.

and when you look back it was only really his first 10gms that were ridiculous - a .654babip and a 220wrc+.

since then he's posted a .366babip and a 135wrc+...which actually seems possibly sustainable for his skillset (homer cap on). i.e. there are hitters who sustain that kind of babip.

since july started his played 30gms with a .345babip and 155wrc+ which seems even more sustainable. his last 25gms its a .327babip and 147wrc+.

Frank Thomas' career best BABIP was .350 at age 22.  A good year for him in his 20s was .330-.340; a bad year was .290. Cabrera has been at .350-.360 regularly, but hits the ball harder than Colabello by a number of objective measures.  Obviously saying that Colabello is not as good a hitter as Miguel Cabrera can hardly be taken as criticism. 

In the second half, Colabello has had a power spike.  He's earned it- he has hit more fly balls, fewer ground balls and the same number of line drives as before despite walking less and striking out less.   His IFFB rate is down and his HR/FB rate has been slightly up.  His BABIP has been more reasonable and the second half line has indeed been excellent all the way around.   Fun fact about Chris Colabello, he has made contact with the first pitch 47 times- he's hitting .547/.547/.851 (that's a better line than Donaldson even).  He gets to 1-0 93 times and 0-1 148 times. 

MLBTR notes in one bullet that AA was asked for Matt Boyd in return for Ben Zobrist, and felt that was too much. Mind you, Boyd ultimately went as part of the Price deal, but in isolation - can you imagine Zobrist in this lineup as well? He's had an OPS+ of 155 since joining KC..

---

I think we have to find a way to keep Collabello in 2016 and see if his hitting is for real. Give him and EE 60 starts each at 1st/DH, with Smoak getting the rest and late inning defensive sub as well as pinch hitter. Although, if Travis is healthy, about the only pinch hitting I could imagine is for Pillar (tough righty) Thole/Revere (tough lefty) or for Goins if Tulo or Travis have a day off..

I remember reading something on Fangraphs about a month ago. A lot of players with abnormally high BABIPs did not regress to the mean as much as would be expected. It was until the following season that regression occurred.

MLBTR notes in one bullet that AA was asked for Matt Boyd in return for Ben Zobrist, and felt that was too much.

MLBTR actully noted he price for Zobrist was Boyd plus other pieces.

yeah mike as always when using hall of fame comps i don't mean to suggest he's as good, just reminiscent in style.

One non-Jay thought from this weekend series.

I lost all respect for Scioscia after his insubordinate power-play apparently led to DiPoto resigning as GM.

So there was more than a bit of schadenfreude when the camera kept cutting to his stone face expression after each of the errors and catcher miscues this weekend.

I imagine when those talks were going on, Boyd was in the Mike Leake deal that apparently would have likely happened had Price not become available.  And gotta think that AA was prioritizing arm over bat at that point.

MLBTR notes in one bullet that AA was asked for Matt Boyd in return for Ben Zobrist, and felt that was too much.
MLBTR actully noted he price for Zobrist was Boyd plus other pieces. (emphasis vw_fan17)

Sorry, my bad. I missed that while quickly reading the article.. Thanks for pointing that out.

I found these items interesting.

1."A full Ted Williams shift is one where three infielders move completely on one side of second base.A partial Ted Williams shift is two and two, with one of the fielders near or behind second base, but not all the way across. Both are designed to prevent pull-heavy hitters from getting a lot of hits to the pull side, however, we’ve noticed that they’re not equally effective. In fact, full shifts have been dramatically more effective, regardless of who is being shifted, whether it’s a right-handed hitter or a left-handed hitter.”

2.“I looked at how a player distributes the runs that he creates throughout the year,” Petti told me. “Basically, whether their runs come in a smaller number of games – in bunches — or whether they’re more evenly distributed on a game-to-game basis. I found a distribution difference between players, both within seasons and across seasons.”

One thing Petti found is that a player with a higher OBP tend to be more consistent, while a player with a higher ISO tends to be more inconsistent. He also discovered that players tend to become more consistent as they get older.

“If you trace how a player would age, performance-wise, the curve matches up really well,” said Petti. “With ISO, for example, guys hit the ball the farthest the younger they are. As they age, their power begins to decline. On-base percentage doesn’t necessarily follow the same path.”

And a third item touching on a subject that is largely unreported and has bugged me for years.

"Curt Schilling was a data hound when he played. The borderline Hall of Famer was a power pitcher, but he prepared like a tactician, poring over reports to get any possible edge that he could. That extended to his perusal of the men in blue.

“(I wanted) data on umpires,” Schilling said at Saber Seminar. “Understanding the human element of umpiring… I don’t care what the rule book says, because first off, the rule book strike zone doesn’t exist. Secondly, the strike zone for umpires is different. If I put up a game plan to pitch a guy on the outer half of the plate, and I had an umpire who didn’t call that half of the plate, I felt like that was on me. That kind of data was crucial.”"

Years ago I would get as livid at umpiring as most, but finally realized as long as an umpire was consistent in game and game-to-game, it was on the team and players to use that to their advantage,

If an umpire consistently calls a pitch 6 inches outside to RHB's a strike, why is their pitcher regularly hitting that area and ours isn't? Why do our hitters seem surprised when pitches there are called strikes? How well did the coaches game-plan for the umpire?

With the amount of data available now, I can't see any team being unprepared, but as Schilling pointed out, there was really no excuse even back when he played.

One thing Petti found is that a player with a higher OBP tend to be more consistent, while a player with a higher ISO tends to be more inconsistent.

Am I missing something, or isn't this true almost by definition?

An OBP guy can only add to his numerator, times on base, one at a time. His game-to-game pattern might be 0, 1, 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 3, 1, etc.

A high ISO guy can add to his numerator, total bases, in bunches, e.g., 4 for every homerun, which he's only doing every so often. So his game-to-game pattern might be 4, 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 6, 0, 2, etc. This is much more volatile than an OBP guy's times-on-base pattern.

Again, I may be missing something fundamental here about what "consistent" means. And what the meaning of "is" is. And what's up with that blue dress?

".....I have to say that I am really impressed with Goins' newfound plate discipline...."

I'm impressed too, and it certainly adds a much-needed new weapon to his limited arsenal.  If Goins can get on base via the walk, he doesn't need to hit for extra bases or anything else -- he just needs to get on base for the big boppers behind him.  But I really wonder how sustainable the walks will be, when his hitting remains relatively weak.  Since the beginning of his turnaround in early July, his OBP is an incredible .375 but his BA is still just .250 and his SLG is still just .375.  (And by the way it's only 88 plate appearances -- still too small of a sample to be confident about.)  How is this OBP sustainable in any way?  Won't the pitchers quickly adjust and begin throwing him a steady diet of strikes, knowing that he isn't capable of hitting most of them?  If he's just going to keep his bat on his shoulder, pitchers will adjust and throw him strikes until he either strikes out or until he makes contact -- and the vast majority of his contact isn't strong enough to allow him to reach base.

Who knows, maybe his OBP is sustainable, but I am skeptical.  However, for a contrary viewpoint and fair balance against my viewpoint, here's an analysis which claims that Goins has made a fundamental and sustainable change in his approach:  http://www.bluejaysplus.com/ryan-goins-wonders-good-approach/

I think Goins can be like John MacDonald. I liked him as our backup SS\2B.

Chuck, the way I understood it was power hitters would go on a tear for a week or so, then go weeks with little extra base power, but high OBP guys don't have as many peaks or valleys in getting on base,

while goins' improved sample is small...the reason we like K and BB numbers is that they stabilize pretty quickly, even in small samples.

that's why this is so interesting. it's hard to go on a hot streak of walks.

and as far as throwing him strikes and him missing them....the reason why some have always liked goins despite his suckitude is that his swing is actually pretty. it's quick and compact and has some pop.

if he has somehow suddenly learned not to swing at balls (massive IF), then i don't see any reason why he couldn't turn intina decent hitter.

which is weird for me to type because i've hated on him for so long.

hypobole that ted williams shift was the most interesting bit for me.

the fact that a full shift is apparently far better than a partial shift is pretty fascinating, really.

seems like there's no use going halfway. it's shift or bust.

Jeff Sullivan has his 3/4 pole update on teams getting extra strike/ball calls. Nothing overly surprising on the pitch framing side, Jays are middle of the pack at -12.

It's the batting side that gets really interesting. Jays hitters are top 10 in getting strikes being called balls/balls not being called strikes at +34. Yankees hitters of course get tons of ump love; oh wait, no they don't. Yankee hitters are -72.

It's actually the top 2 teams that are fascinating, Dodgers at +155 and Orioles at +123. Third place is nowhere close at +63. Oddly the 4 other teams in both their divisions combine for plus pitch framing numbers, Dodgers NL West opponents +71, Orioles AL East opponents +43.

My only guess would be the type of pitches opponents use to attack Dodger/Oriole hitters are the toughest to frame.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/winning-and-losing-the-strike-zone-game-late-season-update/

while goins' improved sample is small...the reason we like K and BB numbers is that they stabilize pretty quickly, even in small samples.

that's why this is so interesting. it's hard to go on a hot streak of walks.

Good point Ugly.  Goins has shown a decent eye in the minors since 2010 though.  He really does look like a quality, controllable backup middle infielder for the next few years. 

More Josh love

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/al-mvp-race-josh-donaldson-toronto-blue-jays-mike-trout-los-angeles-angels-082415

Fangraphs' plate discipline data for Goins confirms that he has swung at many fewer balls outside the zone this year, and that his swinging strike rate is way, way down.  He is 27 years old, and it is certainly common enough for a leap forward to be made at that age.  He may yet have a .120 or .130 IsoP in him, which might allow him to take another step forward to being an average offensive player.  His defence is so strong that he may get the opportunity.

thought this was interesting and continued along the lines of that Ted Williams shift from hypobole's article...

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/62020/the-pirates-create-their-own-extreme-advantages-to-beat-you

"cultivating the extremes" is a perfect descriptor of something i've been thinking about a lot lately. the more saber analysis i look at the more i've seen a potential weakness - basically the numbers end up telling you that over a big enough sample EVERYTHING regresses to the mean. including elite performance.

my math isn't good enough to show it but i've been steadily building the impession that current analytics are underrating the importance of extremes (including elite performers) and overrating the idea of replacing it with cheaper depth.

and like this article says, that's not limited to analyzing juat individual talent, but also tactics and type of talent.

i was having an argument over EE on another site yesterday. there's a general idea that he's fairly replaceable due to his lack of defensive value....but i just can't except that a guy who's been a top 10-15 bat the last 4yrs can possibky be that replaceable. In terms of this article i guess i'd try to frame this as ee having an extreme distribution of talent - i.e. elite hit, awful field - which might make him more valuable in the right role than his overall war would indicate.

but in general i see current sabee-advanced teams making their biggest mistakes when seemingly underrating extremes (i.e. donaldson).

The problem with the majority of the "EE is replaceable" analysis is that it generally fails to remember that DH is a position in the American League.  Someone has to play there every day.  Defence happens not to matter at that position, so it's all bat.  And EE's bat has been, from 2010-2015, 17th in wRC+ at 136.  That's a tremendous advantage at DH versus your opponent almost every single night.  And that's including 2010.  If you change it to 2011-2015, or 2012-2015, or 2013-2015, the numbers are 16th/140, or 8th/146, or 12th/144, respectively.  That's ridiculously consistent excellent compared against all other bats in baseball over that time.  He's been a top 17 bat, across baseball, since 2010 (and even better if you cut out the 2010/2011 seasons before he really got going.  To try to suggest he's a "replaceable" bat is simply ludicrous, especially when his primary position means he should only be compared against other bats.

I ran a Play Index to try to see how comparables to Encarnacion did.  The parameters were a minimum of 1500 PAs between age 29 and 32, an OPS+ between 135 and 160 (Encarnacion is at 147 for this period) and between 130 and 145 HRs (Encarnacion is at 136).  I got 9 other names- Dale Murphy, Mo Vaughn, Ted Kluszewski, Hack Wilson, Roy Sievers, Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Gary Sheffield, Willie Stargell and Hank Aaron.  The first 4 flamed out, but there were significant signs of it by age 32.  The last two were great to age 40, but were obviously better hitters than Encarnacion prior to age 32.  It's the middle four (Sievers, Guerrero, Berkman and Sheffield).  who are of the most interest. Vlad and Berkman had one more year; Sievers had two and Sheffield went on for 4.

Aging is almost certainly more important than simple regression in figuring out what Encarnacion is likely to do in succeeding years. Subjectively, I think that Encarnacion will be a very good hitter through age 35 but probably ought not to be counted on for more than 475 PAs per year on average. 

Not sure the arguments so much are about EE being replaceable, but that we may need a bat of his magnitude to trade for a pitcher in the offseason if we have no luck with free agents.

It will be fascinating to see if we can, once again, attract big names given current success and excitement about the team...and perhaps a more open view to signings of 5+ year terms where it makes sense.

A return to the 90's would be nice when big name FA's were willing to sign with the Jays directly rather than the team having to trade for others' FA signings, such as in the Miami deal. Canada and the Rogers Centre are still "issues", but hopefully management's clear commitment to winning will again make a difference. Not to mention a stunning lineup again next year...

mike just ran a similar query on fangraphs (back '85) and notice that your hr criteria leaves a lot of interesting comps off the list, including power hitters like frank thomas, jim edmonds, jack clark, piazza, delgado, chipper, and bernie williams.

maybe that HR range is a bit narrow?

It is pretty similar to the other list in type.  Frank Thomas isn't a good comp because he (like Aaron and Stargell) was a certifiably better hitter.  Bernie Williams and Jim Edmonds aren't really fair comparisons because they were centerfielders (Williams had only one good year after age 32- trying to remain a centerfielder didn't help him).  Mike Piazza, Carlos Pena, Frank Howard and Jack Clark also show up if you expand the criteria.  It doesn't change the result too much.

The point is that a significant number of hitters who were great from age 29 to 32 will have hardly any pure offensive value at all by age 35.  By the by, I hadn't realized how great Babe Ruth was in 1931 at age 36.  Amazingly, he got jobbed that year in the MVP voting, somehow finishing 5th behind Earl Averill.

Part of the EE discussion should include Bautista, who was never a good outfielder but had a cannon of an arm to make up for his range. With Bautista's shoulder damaged (there was a play on a sac fly recently where the old Bautista easily nails the runner) and advancing age, you have to start thinking about him as a DH/1B if you are going to be extending him past 2016. That would only be an issue if you're confident in Colabello as a hitter long-term, but don't believe he can handle LF on a daily basis.

but on that note, ee and jose have been pretty much identical hitters the past 4yrs, and ee is 2yrs younger.

Definitely. 

I don't mind thinking about Encarnacion's comps, but comparing him and Bautista is something that I'd like to leave for another time.  Enjoying 2015 is the first priority, no?

yup.

for me the answer is simple - bautista and ee as 1b/dh pairing. jose 2yr extension + vesting option or 2. ee 3yr extension with vesting option or 2.

i mean i'd love to believe in colabello and all but i'd rathe4 not lose jose or ee on that gamble.

Can we talk about how great Aaron Sanchez has been as a reliever?  He now has thrown 46 relief innings over his career and opponents have hit .119/.184/.166.   He's struck out over 7 per 9IP and walked less than 2IP, but what is really impressive is the nature of the contact against him.  He has allowed 3 times as many ground balls as fly balls, and there has been plenty of soft contact (23%) and not much hard contact (14%).  You put him in front of Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Goins and Smoak, and it's just about perfect. 

For reference, Sanchez' career slash line as a reliever is noticeably better than Wade Davis' 2015 (.164/.227/.262) or 2014 (.151/.229/.179). 

Colabello at first base and Martin back in the lineup against the left-hander tonight.  Navarro has done a nice job catching Buehrle over the last 2 years (ERA of 3.25) and has hit left-handed pitchers quite well over his career; I'd be inclined to give Martin one more day off.

"....Can we talk about how great Aaron Sanchez has been as a reliever?...."

It's true, he is dominant as a reliever, and this is why Gibby loves him so much (and gets unfairly criticized for over-using him).  But I still think Sanchez gets another shot at the starting rotation next spring. With his stuff and his potential, and still at such a young age, how can they not give him every chance to succeed as a starter?

young Sanchez has definitely quelled (most of) my concerns about last year's relief stats being mostly babip driven. he has been nothing short of awesome (editor's note: i missed the yankee game he coughed up).

also - this is where a stat like siera really shines imo...the unique batted ball profile you're talking about there is reflected much better in siera than in the fips. (though that era is probably still unsustainable).


and i think it's been hard to notice with our SP going deep in most close games but even though sanchez has been the 8th inning guy i get the feeling that gibby is actually grooming him to be the Relief Ace (not the closer).....and i think if the situation calls for it we'll see sanchez earlier if the leverage and batters dictate it.

on a related note, our bullpen is pretty crazy good....and i'm not sure we've seen a better jays' group.

Last 2yrs (war is average of fwar and bwar):

Osuna: 55.2ip, 48era-, 58fip-, 2.1war/65
Sanchez: 46.1ip, 30era-, 72fip-, 1.8war/65
Lowe: 49.1ip, 47era-, 74fip-, 1.7war/65
Hendriks: 58.2ip, 61era-, 50fip-, 1.4war/65
Cecil: 93.2ip, 75era-, 70fip-, 1.3war/65
Hawkins: 85.1ip, 73era-, 80fip-, 1.1war/65

Estrada: 54.1ip, 65era-, 78fip-, 1.0war/65
Loup: 105.0ip, 97era-, 98fip-, 0.3war/65
Schultz: 44.0ip, 93era-, 113fip-, 0.2war/65
Tepera: 23.2ip, 57era-, 117fip-, 1.4war/65
Delabar: 52.2ip, 104era-, 119fip-, 0.1war/65

Personally I'd be inclined to use Sanchez less often for longer stints out of the bullpen, but I understand Gibby's desire to lock down the 8th and 9th most often with the arms he trust best.

As for Martin, there's only so much a manager can do in this type of situation. If the player wants to play the message has to come from AA or the training staff that he needs to be kept out of the lineup. It's easy to think that a DL stint might solve his issues, but hamstring injuries can linger and I don't pretend to be a doctor who knows how long he'll need to come back entirely healthy. I'm guessing the Jays and Martin have determined he can't get enough rest that he's going to be available and in proper hitting form for the playoffs, and that his injury is at a manageable stage where he can still provide his solid defense.

Jeff Sullivan has his 3/4 pole update on teams getting extra strike/ball calls. Nothing overly surprising on the pitch framing side, Jays are middle of the pack at -12.

It's the batting side that gets really interesting. Jays hitters are top 10 in getting strikes being called balls/balls not being called strikes at +34. Yankees hitters of course get tons of ump love; oh wait, no they don't. Yankee hitters are -72.

There's something suspicious about those numbers. The Yankees are at -72 in hitting, but to whose benefit? The White sox, Astros and Mariners are the only American League teams with equivalent positive numbers in pitching. Should I conclude that the Yankees are getting extra strikes against pitchers that are getting extra balls? Or do those extra strikes against the Yankees somehow ends up with the Pirates?

The framing data--I looked at baseball prospectus--credits Martin with an extra 50 strikes, but the Blue Jays pitchers come up short of 12 strikes. McCann is negative in framing but the Yankees come up an extra 35 strikes. How do you reconcile that? Are the difference due to calls that are so  bad that the catcher is not credited with the result?

The data looks like noise. Maybe something needs to be filtered out like strikes in 3-0 counts. Also somebody noticed that the numbers of strikes against batter is inversely proportional to the number of stolen bases by a team. As in the Orioles and the Dodgers don't steal bases.

Colabello at first base and Martin back in the lineup against the left-hander tonight

Isn't it Salazar?