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The Jays are in Philadelphia for a two-game interleague series match-up as Troy Tulowitzki meets up with the first team he played against in Toronto blue. It also marks the return of Ben Revere to the City of Brotherly Love.



The Phillies return home after being swept in Milwaukee over the weekend. They are in last place in the NL East at 46-72, 17 games behind the first-place New York Mets. The Phils also have the worst record in the majors but are just two games behind Miami. The Jays won't have to worry about rookie third baseman Mikael Franco because he is on the disabled list with a fractured wrist. They will have to deal with the yet-to-be-traded Chase Utley, who is bouncing back from a tough start from the season.

Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Tuesday at 7:05 pm ET - R.A. Dickey (7-10, 3.96) vs. Aaron Nola (3-1, 4.25)
Wednesday at 7:05 pm ET - Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31) vs. Adam Morgan (3-4, 4.11)

The 65-54 Blue Jays are one game back of the Yankees in the AL East after a two-out-of-three series loss at The Dome over the weekend but are three games up on Baltimore for the first Wild Card spot. The team announced today outfielder Michael Saunders will not be back this season thanks to his knee injury. In the same story, it does not appear second baseman Devon Travis will be back anytime soon. However, they will have Matt Hague and Ezequiel Carrera on the roster to bolster the bench, which gets no discussion here at Da Box. Hague will wear Shaun Marcum's old #28 while Carerra will continue on with #3.

In case you missed it, ESPN has a feature on the Jays and TSN 1040 in Vancouver had a good chat with Pat Hentgen.
Blue Jays @ Phillies - August 18-19 | 226 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#309350) #
At think Hague is in line for 2 ABs in this series. I hope he gets one hit since he probably goes down right after.

A mini sweep here would be nice.
Jimbag - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#309351) #
Good start, but they want to score in multiple innings!
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#309354) #
BABIP's revenge.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#309355) #
just can't trust the knuckleballer.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#309356) #
Revere walks. This could be the apocalypse.
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#309357) #
But then instead of stealing second, waste an out on a sac bunt.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#309358) #
that wasn't a sac bunt.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#309359) #
i think this guy might actually win the MVP.
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#309360) #
Incredibly, the MVP chant follows Donaldson to Philly.
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#309361) #
The sad thing is that it depends on Trout's injury and the Angels missing the playoffs.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#309362) #
Mike Trout is hurt?
Jimbag - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#309363) #
If this score holds up, it'll be exactly the same final as the first time these teams faced each other.
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#309364) #
Stupid question: has anyone ever won the MVP while batting second the whole year (or more than 90% of the time).
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#309365) #
Buck was fired up that inning! haha love it.

0-3 bomb. I still can't believe the A's traded us JD.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#309366) #
#carcrashes
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#309367) #
Not since 2014 ;)

Mike Trout
jerjapan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#309369) #
EE 6th all time for jays homeruns. Donaldson is now 54th, tied with Cecil fielder
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#309370) #
"The sad thing is that it depends on Trout's injury and the Angels missing the playoffs."

Does it?

Old School Comp

Trout: .296avg, 33hr, 71rbi, 79r, 10sb, 6th place, Out of Playoffs
Donald: .297avg, 33hr, 91rbi, 89r, 4sb, 3rd place, Out of Playoffs

New School Comp

Trout: 173wrc+, 3.1df, 2.4bsr, 6.7war
Donald: 157wrc+, 8.3df, 2.9bsr, 6.7war
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#309371) #
refreshing having a manager that hands out 3-0 greenlights all the time, too.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#309372) #
Loewen throwing easy mid 90s heat. what a story.
BlueMonday - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#309373) #
Adam Loewen!  3rd time lucky?
christaylor - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#309374) #
Another Revere walk... woah.
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#309375) #
Uglyone. What do you mean out of playoffs? Jays are in first wildcard position.
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#309376) #
Adam Loewen looks like he needs some work to regain form.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#309377) #
oops robert....obv meant IN playoffs.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#309378) #
Another Revere walk... woah.

No credit for that one. That was a Loewen walk.

Adam Loewen looks like he needs some work to regain form.

Regain? His journey has certainly been an interesting one and he deserves full credit for his tenacity, but it's not clear he ever had form in the first place. This is a guy whose BB/9 is 6!

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#309379) #
Red Sox hire Dombrowski for president.
christaylor - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#309380) #
The Hawkins acquisition was a very smart move. I don't remember seeing many comments here at the time of the trade, but he has been impressive in blue.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#309381) #
did they fire cherington?

he definitely deserved it.
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#309382) #
Sanchez again? I think Lowe can handle an 8-5 lead.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#309383) #
A Rod just hit a grand slam down 4-1 in the 7th.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#309384) #
The Hawkins acquisition was a very smart move. I don't remember seeing many comments here at the time of the trade, but he has been impressive in blue.

I think it was a slow day for BB.ca
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#309385) #
Sanchez's 4th appearance in 6 days; Lowe has one.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#309386) #
The Twins keep threatening to help...
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#309387) #
I saw that coming, but you never know the Yankees pen must be pretty worn out.
electric carrot - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#309388) #
Dombrowski is new president for Red Sox -- Cherrington gone.  Manley Ramirez I think was the final straw.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/13465358/boston-red-sox-hire-dave-dombrowski-president-baseball-operations


greenfrog - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#309389) #
The Twins set up that grand slam by walking the bases loaded (perhaps aided by some classic Yankees Stadium home plate umpiring).

Hopefully the Mets can hold on against Baltimore.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#309390) #
Arod is so awesome. Love the redemption.
electric carrot - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#309391) #
*Hanley
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#309392) #
Arod is so awesome

I especially liked his AB against Osuna on Sunday.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#309393) #
*Hanley

I was actually thisclose to reading that story to see what Manny did now, haha.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#309394) #
I thought Manley was a double entendre, sort of like the Manalyst.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#309395) #
Only 5 Jays have a wRC+ over 100 this month. Top 4 are Cola, Eddie, Jose and Josh.

Who's 5th?

Dez - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#309396) #
Don't tell me it's goins
scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#309397) #
Goins?
robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#309398) #
My guess is Goins.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#309399) #
You guys are sharp. Goins was at 118 prior to tonight, close to 130 now.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#309400) #
the most impressive thing about goins improved performance is all the walks. that is a legit new interesting development that could help change his profilem
jjdynomite - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#309401) #
He may be objectively and statistically correct but I find it weird that Manalyst Zaun was so dismissive of Josh's MVP chances compared to Trout, whom, as uglyone delineated, is starring for a team that may well miss the playoffs.

Moreover, the give-it-to-someone else bias against a repeat winner (a.k.a. the Barkley & Malone Over Jordan MVP Decisions) may play a factor IN FAVOUR of Donaldson this season.

And finally, Don Cherry Jr says that Trout, unlike Josh, plays a "premium position". Um, last I checked Donaldson doesn't ply his trade at 1B or DH. (Notice I am omitting the 20 more ribbies at this stage of the season). Am I missing something here?
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#309402) #
The Mets are making life interesting against the O's. They just walked in a run in the bottom of the ninth. It's now 5-2 Mets, bases loaded, two out, Familia pitching to the #9 hitter, Machado on deck.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#309403) #
Walked in another run. 5-3 Mets. Machado up.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#309404) #
zaun's biggest mistake is ignoring how much voters hate giving the mvp to non playoff players.
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#309405) #
zaun's biggest mistake is ignoring how much voters hate giving the mvp to non playoff players.

THAT's Zaun's biggest mistake? I could name a few more...
JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#309406) #
But seriously, arguing one over the some seems silly at this point. It's as close as it could be.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#309407) #
Maybe I missed it in another thread - sorry if I did. USA Today story about the Jays, deadline moves, winning streak, playoff atmosphere. Lots of interesting comments, including Buehrle saying he's actually LIKING Toronto. Sure, maybe just talk, but..

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/08/17/blue-jays-trade-deadline-playoffs-1993-david-price-troy-tulowitzki/31864097/

Just watching the home games, it sure SEEMS like the late 80s/early 90s when Ontario (Canada?) was all fired up about the Jays. Makes me a little homesick and nostalgic..

uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#309408) #
from that article:

"The new guys coming in at the trade deadline were accepted and embraced so quickly, said veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins, they feel like they’ve been around all season. "

remember that silly hatchet piece about nobody saying hi to hawkins in the clubhouse?
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#309409) #
Buehrle likes Toronto?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/08/17/blue-jays-trade-deadline-playoffs-1993-david-price-troy-tulowitzki/31864097/

There is hope that he signs.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#309410) #
The bullpen's line was 5.0ip 2h 0r 0bb 5k, and one of those innings was getting out of a bases loaded jam with no outs yielding only one run to keep the team in the game.

I hope you didn't think that would be enough to keep people off John Gibbons' back for one evening; After all, Mark Lowe didn't pitch.

I'm starting to get a bit nervous about Russell Martin's health, it seems like his good ABs are few and far between. Zaun keeps mentioning Martin's hamstring as an issue, so you have to wonder if at some point 2 weeks on the DL is the best option for the team down the stretch. You don't want a manager that is too reactionary to the streakiness of his players, but if he's playing through an injury at least move him down in the order a bit, like behind the beast that is Ryan Goins.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#309411) #
Since when does a team performing well absolve the manager of the responsibility for his decisions?

I view the overuse of Sanchez, a pitcher they took out of the starting rotation in part to limit his innings, and the underuse of Lowe ( who has had a pretty good year) to be a mistake. It was the 8th inning of an 8-5 ballgame, a fairly low leverage situation. What reason is there to choose Sanchez over Lowe?

People ought to get over this habit of admonishing critics because the team wins. The fact that Sanchez pitched well and the team won has nothing to do with the merits of the question.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:27 AM EDT (#309412) #
overuse is a stretch i think.

coming into tonight sanchez had pitched 12 times in 24 days as an rp, and once in the past 3 days.

only once had he thrown even 15 pitches (he threw 22 in his first relief outing), while 5 times had thrown fewer than 10.

and it was a save situation against a hot hitting team, with us coming off a big series loss.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#309413) #
p.s. the jays' bullpen ranks 6th-8th mlb in all the most important metrics this year (take your pick of era, era-, fwar, bwar, etc.). this from a collection of arms that most described as woefully inadequate coming into the year.

if you've spent the whole year criticizing gibby's bullpen management you might want to stop.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:42 AM EDT (#309414) #
Do you think Sanchez will be available for Wednesday's game? If he pitches, he will have appeared in 5 games in 7 days and that is a very heavy workload. If you think Gibbons will rule him out to rest him, then you must admit that Gibbons has unnecessarily shortened his bullpen. If Lowe had pitched the eight on Tuesday both Lowe and Sanchez would be available for Wednesday.

I repeat, results have nothing to do with it. I am talking about reliever workload, and particularly why Sanchez is pitching so many more innings than Lowe.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:44 AM EDT (#309415) #
Uglyone. Don't tell me you buy into the crazy logic of the save situation. The score was 8 to 5. Lowe is plenty good enough to trust in that situation.
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:53 AM EDT (#309416) #
overuse is a stretch i think.

Not remotely a stretch. An understatement, if anything.

Sanchez re-joined the team as a reliever on July 25. Since then the team has played 22 games and he's pitched 12.1 innings in 13 appearances. His 162-game pace is thus 90.2 innings in 96 appearances.

That's a ridiculously heavy load. No pitcher has made more than 80 appearances in the last 3 years. 1 pitcher, ever, has made more than 96 appearances in a season - Mike Marshall in 1974 (an extreme outlier at 106 appearances. Second place is 94). 96 appearances is 20 more (twenty!) than the pace of his Yankee equivalent, Dellin Betances.
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#309417) #
Sanchez has been a starter for most of his career.  He pitched 133 innings last year (majors and minors), and he's only pitched 87 innings this year at all levels. In the bullpen last year, he was often pitching for two innings at a time (and handled it easily with no ill-effects) whereas this year it's always been one inning (or less) per appearance.  Because of his efficiency, he is averaging just 11.9 pitches per appearance from the bullpen this year.

Projecting his current workload to an entire season is irrelevant, because obviously his workload would be calibrated differently if he was pitching from the bullpen for the entire season.  Every reliever goes through busy stretches, and a playoff drive is legitimately a busy time of year.   So I totally agree with uglyone: the "over-work" of Sanchez is a non-issue.  But I do enjoy the irony of people complaining about the "over-work" of relievers while simultaneously calling for a 6-man bullpen.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#309418) #
Months ago I mentioned that there was a risk of Gibby overusing Martin this year, seeing him as a "workhorse" catcher who can catch virtually every day, even though he's now 32 years old. I agree that Martin now looks tired. Perhaps Gibby is hoping that he can get Martin some more rest when the roster expands in September.
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#309419) #
But I do enjoy the irony of people complaining about the "over-work" of relievers while simultaneously calling for a 6-man bullpen.

I'd like to hear your definition of irony, because it surely doesn't appear in my dictionary.

When you stand with one foot in a bucket of ice water and the other in a bucket of boiling water, do you feel perfectly comfortable?
Chuck - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#309420) #
I'm starting to get a bit nervous about Russell Martin's health

Absent a DL stint, I wonder if swapping out Hague for Thole might be a consideration. Having three catchers could lighten Martin's load while he halfway heals (I imagine that full healing will have to wait for the off-season). I can understand that with the run Dickey had been on, the organization might have been reluctant to switch catchers on him and mess up that mojo. Perhaps last night's poor effort by Dickey gives license to return Thole to fulltime Dickey duties. Giving him a day off when Dickey starts might be a huge gift for Martin in his present physical condition.

scottt - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#309421) #
you must admit that Gibbons has unnecessarily shortened his bullpen. If Lowe had pitched the eight on Tuesday both Lowe and Sanchez would be available for Wednesday.

I don't really see an issue. I'd prefer to see Lowe pitch more, but Sanchez pitching Tuesday or Sanchez pitching Wednesday doesn't really make any difference. Buerlhe goes today and should last 6 or 7. Thursday being a day off, the other relievers could go 2 innings if necessary if that's not the case or if the game goes extra innings.
scottt - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#309422) #
Not remotely a stretch. An understatement, if anything.

Yeah, but you don't factor the days off in your projection.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#309423) #
"Uglyone. Don't tell me you buy into the crazy logic of the save situation. The score was 8 to 5. Lowe is plenty good enough to trust in that situation."

Pitchers very much buy into the crazy logic of set roles. That's much more important than what any of us think.

Almost everyone in the bullpen now is good enough to trust in that situation, including Lowe.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#309424) #
The Jays have had what, 1 RP hit the DL the entire year? I'm pretty sure John Gibbons doesn't need anybody's absolution.
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#309425) #
"Yeah, but you don't factor the days off in your projection."

What are you talking about? I did not assume that the 22 games the Jays have played with Sanchez on the roster as a reliever were on 22 consecutive days.

If you're going say my math is bad, show us what your math says.
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#309426) #
"....The score was 8 to 5. Lowe is plenty good enough to trust in that situation...."

The Jays thought he was plenty good enough to trust in their Aug. 1 game against the Royals.  He gave up 3 runs in one inning and the Jays lost.

Look, of course Mark Lowe is a good pitcher who is having a good season, but I can totally understand the Jays preferring Sanchez.  The Jays still have the highest number of blown saves in the league, and most of those games were blown by pitchers who seemed trustworthy at the time, so they can't afford to take chances with 3-run leads.  Lowe is having a good season, but until this year he was a journeyman without much to his name.  I'd rank him in the bottom half of the Jays bullpen at the moment.
Intricated - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#309427) #
Since Date | Team Games, GP, IP | Pitches/GP | 162-Projection of GP, IP | Reliever

Since Jul 25 | 22 TG, 13 GP, 12.1 IP | 11.9 pitches/GP | projected 096 GP, 90.2 IP | Aaron Sanchez
Since Aug 02 | 15 TG, 09 GP, 08.2 IP | 16.7 pitches/GP | projected 097 GP, 93.2 IP | Kelvin Herrera
Since Aug 01 | 15 TG, 10 GP, 08.2 IP | 13.9 pitches/GP | projected 108 GP, 93.2 IP | Steve Geltz
Since Aug 02 | 15 TG, 09 GP, 07.2 IP | 16.0 pitches/GP | projected 098 GP, 83.0 IP | Kevin Jepsen
Since Jul 08 | 35 TG, 17 GP, 17.0 IP | 15.9 pitches/GP | projected 079 GP, 78.2 IP | Andrew Miller
Chuck - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#309428) #
The Jays thought he was plenty good enough to trust in their Aug. 1 game against the Royals. He gave up 3 runs in one inning and the Jays lost.

Not sure how fair it is to cherry pick. Aaron Sanchez himself gave up a game-losing homerun in Price's start just a few days ago.

cruzin - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#309429) #
I'm wasn't really concerned about Sanchez coming on in the 8th last night because of the off days. What about bothered me was that Lowe had sparingly been used. Hmmm...maybe we should go to a 6man pen...I'm jesting of course.

Lowe was the new guy in the pen and Gibbons couldn't wait to try the new toy he was given and immediately put Lowe into the fire. Unfortunately, it didn't work out. Did that outing leave a permanent mark in Gibbons mind regarding situations to use Lowe? The way I figure it if you have a 7man pen and they're all performing I would expect a more evenly distribution of workload. But what I'm seeing is more along the lines of very rigid rules on each persons role and the only time Gibbons may deviate from said rules is when he had overused a reliever, ie not have someone pitch 3 consecutive days.

Obviously my preference is more even distribution and keeping everyone as sharp as possible given the current state and performance of the pen.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#309431) #
BR has a great daily feature showing pen usage for the past 8 days and other stats heading into each game - http://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2015/PHI201508190.shtml for todays on Jays/Phillies.
  • Sanchez: 5 of past 8 days: 16-13-7-12-11 pitches, clearly Gibbons favorite
  • Osuna: 4 of past 8 days: 15-15-13-16 pitches
  • Cecil: used 3 of past 5 days: 18-5-12 pitches the 18 was yesterday, wasn't used the 3 days before that
  • Hendriks: 3 in last 8 -2 days off between outtings: 10-13-12 pitches
  • Hawkins: used 2 of last 8: 12 yesterday and 20 4 days ago
  • Lowe: just 1 use in last 8 days: 16 pitches 4 days ago, should be extremely rested today
  • Schultz: 1 of past 8 days: 14 pitches 7 days ago.
So there are 3 levels in the pen...
1) trusted and loved - Sanchez/Osuna - young, strong kids who were starters in the minors
2) trusted - Cecil/Hendriks/Hawkins - vets who have shown they can get the job done but preferred for pre-8th inning
3) not trusted - Lowe/Schultz - used when no other option exists, which is odd as Lowe was traded for but has just 4 1/3 IP since he came here.

cruzin - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#309432) #
Thanks John! Given the data above, 6man pen it is lol

I wonder if part of usage pattern could be related that Gibbons isn't to managing this often with close games on the line. We've been accustomed to Blue Jays blowing the other team out hence the few save opportunities even available in the 1st half. Maybe Gibbons needs an adjustment period with respect to the frequency of close games? Or does he stick to his hard and fast rules and preferences?
Kasi - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#309433) #
If you're going to use an 8 man bullpen it makes sense you use it like an 8 man bullpen. Not a 6 man pen like they've been doing. I agree with the posts that Sanchez' appearances have been too high and he needs to be spelled occasionally in the 8th. Whether that is with Hendriks, Hawkins or whomever that is fine. But his current rate of appearances is too high.
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#309434) #
Thanks Intricated, those are interesting numbers. It looks like you picked some likely suspects who have been ridden hard recently - yes? Or was it a more automated search? How do the numbers look for Dellin Betances?

I note that all of the 3 who have been used more heavily than Sanchez have been doing it for 2-1/2 weeks as compared to Sanchez' 3-1/2.
jjdynomite - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#309435) #
Now that Loup is thankfully working on his out pitch(es) in Buffalo, it is slightly concerning how little work Lowe and Schultz are getting, given their many solid appearances this season.

Osuna's last -- and only -- blown save was way back on April 27, so there's no reason to take him out of the last-inning role. Cool as a cucumber. Of course, the higher leverage innings are often Sanchez'.

I like what hypobole wrote that the comfort with players "know[ing] your role" positively impacts relief pitchers (as much as position players). Gibby obviously feels that the confidence Sanchez gets as The Setup Man in save situations/close games is more impactful to the budding pro than giving Lowe and Schultz (and to a lesser extent, Hawk and Hendricks), the RH in-game high leverage responsibilities.

Also something to consider is that the Jays have not been blown out (what I consider a loss of more than 3 runs) since Saturday, July 4 against Detroit. That's a long, long time for a team to be in a game -- and says a lot about how great the starters have been -- so it makes sense for Gibby to want to continually run his best 3 horses out there in close contests (including Cecil as LH).
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#309436) #
those ultra low pitch counts confirm that calling him overused is a stretch, imo.

i also agree that some of this is gibby feeling the need to test and establish sanchez in this role, for the mental wellbeing of both the player and manager....especially in bouncing back from friday's failure.

it's also simple math - gibby has been using him consistently in every set-up situation, the only exception being not putting him out there 3 days in a row, and it just so happens that sanchez' role/situation has come up more often than the others in recent weeks.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#309437) #
IP and frequency of appearances is such a crude way to measure pitcher use and risk of injury.

We really have no idea what his throwing program is or how his arm will respond. What we do know is that his velocity has been fine and the results have been there.

Also, the HR that Sanchez gave up last week is all on Gibby. Who pitches to Beltran with 1 out, 1B open, and didi gregorius on deck?
Intricated - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#309438) #
I picked guys that I believe their managers trust in late/high-leverage situations playing for teams in the playoff hunt. Cutoff dates had some logic: Miller since DL return, Jepsen since trade, though Herrera/Geltz from Aug 1/2 was laziness (so I didn't have to extend/modify the spreadsheet formulas past the Aug month label).

To complete the picture, Herrera had 3 appearances from Jul 25-31 (team played 7 games) and threw 4 innings and 14.3 pitches/game. So his projections #s fall a bit. Two games were 2.3+ leverage, the other was a paltry 0.2. Geltz had 3 (low leverage) appearances from Jul 25-31 (team played 5 games) and threw 2.2 innings and 11.3 pitches/game. His projections would decrease a bit too.
Since Jul 26 | 21 TG, 10 GP, 11.2 IP | 18.2 pitches/GP | projected 078 GP, 90.0 IP | Dellin Betances


Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#309439) #
Bottom line for me, I feel alot better about the pen than I did 2 months ago. If Lowe\Shultz are your "not loved" options, that is great.

Kasi - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#309440) #
With relievers the amount of times a pitcher is warmed up is as important as pitch counts. That's why you can't just equate a reliever and a starter based on pitch counts and number of innings. There is a real cost to every time Sanchez warms up in the pen. And yes I think it is partly Gibbons not being used to having so many close games in the 8th. Early on we were either up huge or the few close games pitchers choked on those 8th inning roles. So I understand the desire to go with Sanchez who has pitched well. But at some point the appearances are just too much. It's not like he needs to be taken out of the role, but just one of those 3 run leads in the 8th taken by a Lowe or Hendriks every couple weeks will do a lot to keep his usage under control.
Intricated - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#309441) #
Might as well do leverage index too. Over the same games played as my findings above:

1.1 avg | # times >2 = 1 | Sanchez
1.6 avg | # times >2 = 2 | Herrera
1.3 avg | # times >2 = 1 | Geltz
1.1 avg | # times >2 = 2 | Jepsen
1.9 avg | # times >2 = 8 | Miller
2.0 avg | # times >2 = 5 | Betances
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#309442) #
"those ultra low pitch counts confirm that calling him overused is a stretch, imo."

I'm not convinced the low pitch counts are significant. If he throws 15 pitches to get loose in the pen, then 8 more when he reaches the mound, does it really matter whether he throws 12 or 17 pitches in the game? Thats 35 vs 40 total pitches. Not a night and day difference.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#309443) #
well its not night and day but it is 10-15% difference, which would equate to a couple fewer appearances.
eudaimon - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#309444) #
I think the stress of warming up in the bullpen is overstated. These guys play baseball for a living, I'm sure most of them warm up to a certain extent every day (including working out, long-tossing, and so on). If throwing some balls in the bullpen causes someone to get injured, they're probably Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow and would have got hurt anyways.

I'm fine with Sanchez pitching as often as he has. The data shows that he's not being overused any more than other premium relievers. Besides, people seem to be assuming that pitch count is a direct correlation to injury. While it definitely is a factor I think there's way more to it than that. I have a hard time believing that a 23 year old starter who looks to be throwing pain-free is going to get injured due to 13 pitches on one given night.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#309445) #
I guess we could just look at august splits for relievers.

Sanchez is in an 18-player tie in 5th mlb with 9 appearances in august. so 23 rp have as many or more appearances in august.

Sanchez is in a 9-player tie in 33rd mlb with 8.1ip in august. so 41 rp have as many or more ip in august (including osuna).

Sanchez is all alone in 118th mlb with 101 pitches thrown in august. Osuna is in a 3-player tie in 89th at 113.

I think worrying about overuse is a stretch.
Dewey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#309446) #
"With relievers the amount of times a pitcher is warmed up is as important as pitch counts."
       Kasi, "the amount of times"?
*
"Tony Abbott wants to increase the amount of women in parliament, but not using a quota."  I saw that in an Australian newspaper (Sydney Morning Herald) the other day.  It's funny/sad.

The writer of the headline seems not to understand that there's a distinction between "amount" and "number".  Have our innumeracy and our illiteracy become so pervasive that we can no longer grasp this?  It's quite an important distinction.  A culture that loses such distinctions can be said to have been dumbed down.  (And down is different from up, too.)
Hodgie - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#309447) #
"I'm not convinced the low pitch counts are significant."

That is fair, however the Jays don't seem to agree. They have alluded to a focus on pitcher stress over the last year and a bit. They seem to believe the actual context of each appearance matters, apart from just the aggregate IP and pitch numbers.

Kasi - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#309448) #
Amount def'n: a quantity of something, typically the total of a thing or things in number, size, value, or extent.
synonyms: quantity, number

I could have said number as well. I don't think it really matters, despite you thinking there is a real distinction. I could have used quantity too.
jerjapan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#309449) #
I feel this story is important enough to continue posting about it.  This is history, folks. 

Congratulations to David Denson, the first openly gay player in affiliated ball.

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/17/coming-out-david-denson-makes-and-continues-history/

the brewers are clearly one of the worst-run franchises in the game from a sabremetric perspective.  Good for them for being so positive on the human side of things.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#309450) #
Glenn Burke says hi. I feel like he is the Moses Fleetwood Walker to Denson's Jackie Robinson.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#309451) #
Or William Edward White if you prefer, but I didn't think people would get the reference.
jerjapan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#309452) #
wow, I didn't know either of those guys whiterasta, interesting. 

to my understanding, Glenn Burke was out to teammates but not to the world at large - super significant nonetheless, evidence of bravery and trailblazing, but I'm definitely excited that we have an out-to-the-public player.  I just hope he can handle the pressure - Michael Sam seems not to have been able to. 

I guess that is one way to understand privilege - not having to worry that your successes or failures on the playing field will be attributed to your race, sexuality, etc. 

christaylor - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#309453) #
Glenn Burke, probably the inventor the high-five, a compelling story.

http://www.fastcompany.com/3033528/the-recommender/the-poignant-story-of-the-man-who-invented-the-high-five

[warning - autoplay video]

That said, I'll be happy when the day comes when we do not care about people's sexual behavior. Watching from a far, I was glad to not hear or read about the Ontario Premier's sexuality during the campaign. Hopefully, we'll see that in sports soon.
cruzin - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#309454) #
I was thinking about how improved the current pen was that it got me thinking about improvements to the Blue Jays Pythagorean WL. I vaguely remember CF posting about regression towards the Pythagorean WL. I'm not sure in what context of regression that CF was alluding to. What I will say is that the difference between the Blue Jays Pythagorean WL and actual WL record had neither diverged nor converged during their hot streak, ie while it hasn't gotten better nor has it gotten worse either.

That got me thinking about the Cardinals and their performance. Their actual record is inline with their Pythagorean WL. I then looked at their record in games decided by runs:
1 run: 28-19
2/3 run: 28-14
4+ run: 20-10

It certainly shows them being a model of consistency and if 1run games are a matter of luck, they're doing fine.

Let's compare that to the Blue Jays who have a Pythagorean WL similar to the Cards at 74-46, but with an actual underperforming record of 66-54.
1 run: 12-24
2/3 run: 19-20
4+ run: 35-10

None of this is really a surprise as we know that the Blue Jays have blown out teams and have sucked in 1run games.

But let's back if up to a nice round number, say the first 100 games.
1 run: 10-21
2/3 run: 10-19
4+ run: 30-10

What really stands out for me is the 2/3 run games. If luck plays a role in 1run games, what does that say about the Blue Jays in the close 2/3 run games. Is that luck or something else, bad pen, bad pitchers in general, managing? I mean they were a whopping 20-40 in close games, extrapolating that to a full season they were all time atrociously bad winning only a third of the close games.

Over that first 100, 40% of their games could be considered not close which compares to a 25% rate for the Cards thus far. The good news is that during their last 20 games where the Blue Jays have made their run, they've dominated except in the 1run games. The not close games came in at a 25% rate. All in all is that the Blue Jays have turned a corner IMO and playing at level that is looking to be competitive with best team in baseball, by winning the close games which bodes well for the stretch run and playoffs.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#309455) #
Looking at the improved pen, using fangraphs' Active Roster tool (40man roster, not 25man, so includes loup delabar Tepera copeland etc).

5.0fwar (2nd mlb)
66era- (3rd mlb)
77fip- (2nd mlb)
79xfip- (2nd mlb)
2.77siera (2nd mlb)
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#309456) #
I feel this story is important enough to continue posting about it.  This is history, folks. 
Congratulations to David Denson, the first openly gay player in affiliated ball.

Seconded.

I have a somewhat different way of looking at bullpen usage.  Let's assume you agree with the closer 9th inning/set-up man 8th inning arrangement.  I don't but that is not important for the tweaks that I would suggest.  Within the framework, I think we can all agree that you want your set-up man/closer to be in games with a 1 and 2 run lead unless they are overworked at the particular time.  Let's move on to tie games and 3 run leads.  What should happen in a tie game in the 8th and 9th, on the road and at home?  These are very high leverage situations.  It seems to me that you absolutely want your set-up man to pitch in a tie game in the 8th (unless overworked).  It's his inning (within the framework) and there is no reason to prefer having him pitch with a 3 run lead over a tie game.  As for the ninth inning, the current convention seems to be that the closer pitches the ninth at home but not on the road (because of the possibility of a save).  I don't agree with the convention but let's assume that you stick with it.  (I always want my best pitcher throwing an inning in a game that is likely to turn on one run and that is the tie game in the ninth situation, home or road)

So, within the framework, I'd suggest that following tweak.  For the set-up guy, the 8th inning tie will almost always be his situation and the 8th inning 3 run lead (nobody on) will be entirely discretionary. So, looking at Sanchez' game log, we see three appearances in the eighth with a 3 run lead and nobody on, one on July 30 (he hadn't pitched since July 26- I approve of the usage), one on August 2 (he had pitched July 30 and 31- I would have used somebody else) and last night (he had pitched the 14th and 16th- I would have used somebody else).  It's important to remember that with the tweak, the set-up guy will pitch in many more tie games than the closer (you could conceivably allow the set-up guy to continue on to pitch the 9th inning in a tie game on the road if you are going with a conventional approach where the closer waits for the save opportunity).

My point, I suppose, is that consistent usage of the set-up guy in the eighth inning in the tie and 1-3 run lead situation will lead to overwork and it is better to choose the tie game over the 3 run lead. 


eudaimon - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#309457) #
The pitching was pretty brutal early on. For relievers it seemed that only Osuna was consistent, while the rest seemed to give up runs at the worst possible times.  It's gotten much better as of late, and it's not all due to Price / Lowe / Hawkins. The starters and relievers have settled down a bit and management was able to figure out who was going to perform (ie: Osuna over Cecil at closer). I tend to think the early 1-run losses were due in large part to our horrible bullpen and a certain amount of bad luck - ie: relievers are always going to give up some runs, but early on it always seemed to happen at the worst times. Some might blame the manager in this case, but Gibbons generally puts his guys in position to succeed, at least from my vantage point.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#309458) #
I see that no one had answered my question about availability of Sanchez tonight. Who thinks using a reliever who's been in the DL this season in a game tonight (which would mean 5 appearances in 7 days) is both something Gibbons would do and an acceptable health risk.

Because if you exclude Sanchez from tonight's game for rest purposes, you have unnecessarily shortened your bullpen for the game.

Sanchez's workload for August have been brought up, but did anyone bring up the forced 3 days' rest due to suspension? And how many heavily used relievers are as young as Sanchez?

So I gather that there are people around here who don't mind testing the durability limits of a pitcher who is among the very brightest young pitchers we've had.
christaylor - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#309459) #
robertdudek -- I agree with pretty much every comment you've made, save for one, about the results don't matter. They do and while Gibbons and AA are getting results with their questionable usage and less than optimal roster moves, I can't get worked up about it.

It may be that the Jays front office and scout disagree that Sanchez is one of the brightest young arms, but rather what his usage suggests, a fireman in the mold of throwback like Ward. I, for one, would welcome the front office and manager using their relievers in this way.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#309460) #
Correct, Burke was only out to teammates during his career and this only became public afterwards. However it probably still should have received more press than it did (Billy Bean somehow is more well known).

I also agree that the day that we don't have to talk about this is the day that we should be looking forward to.

robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#309461) #
Christaylor. Since I presume we haven't won the World Series yet, I assume it is important to have a healthy and productive Sanchez in October. So if by chance Sanchez ends up on the disabled list, I suppose it will be a consolation that theJays won a game in August using Sanchez to secure an 8 to 5 lead when they had two other successful pitchers gathering dust available.

And I am certain of this as I am certain of anything: AA has regarded Sanchez as a prize possession for a long time. Despite other teams coveting him, AA did not include him in any of the deals to bring in veterans (I speak here of past years, not 2015).

I love Sanchez's present and future - he reminds me a little of Brandon Webb. Sanchez may be more suitable for the pen, as he seems to have better command of his pitches in that role. In any case, the 8th inning close game role is, on most teams, the most important relief role. That's because the closer is misused in many low leverage situations.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#309462) #
Robert. I agree that Sanchez probably isn't available tonight. I just disagree about everything else.

First of all, the "unnecessary" in shortening the bullpen is entirely subjective. There's no way of knowing what the other relievers would have done in the 8th inning last night we can just know what happened. We won the game.

Second, his usage isn't astronomically high, its been high-normal. Plenty of relievers go through high usage periods (including Sanchez last year) like this.

There's also no reason to expect the Jays to keep playing in close games. At some point we will either blow a team out or be blown out and our high leverage guys will get a break.

Finally, there is no evidence that Sanchez's usage has been sufficiently high to hurt him. When I've seen pitchers overworked (Wood, Prior, Verlander and Bonderman etc...) it is written all over them and it typically shows up in velocity declines or control issues.

I would also note that the DL stint you referred to was for a Lat strain not elbow tendinitis.

hypobole - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#309464) #
I remember one team (although I can't remember which - Houston?) brought in their analytics people to speak to the players and explain various concepts to them.

Because for any drastic change from conventional thinking to successfully occur, player buy-in is crucial.

On a different note, not that long ago, some were saying AA might not have his job much longer. Apparently, that's still the case, although not for the reasons most believed. While some thought AA would be fired, the very real possibility exists he'll choose to leave as a free agent.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-alex-anthopoulos-gm-dave-david-price-troy-tulowitzki-josh-donaldson-081915

Final thought - there are a number of teams that only have 1 person in charge of baseball ops, either combining the president/GM roles (Tampa/Atlanta) or having a very hands on president (Cubs/Dodgers). Could this be something that may happen here with AA?
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#309466) #
The LI used at BR is intersting.  Sadly in the game logs they use average leverage for their appearance instead of leverage when they come in thus upping it for guys who suck.  In August...
  • Osuna: under 1: twice, 1-1.5 5 times, over 1.5 once (over 2) - stressful but not high except the one time
  • Sanchez: under 1: 6 times, 1 -1.5 once, over 1.5 twice (barely, 1.6's) - so not super stress outtings
  • Hendriks: under 1: 3, 1-1.5:twice, over 1.5: none
  • Cecil: under 1: 3 times, 1-1.5:once,  over 1.5: once (over 2), similar to Osuna for pressure
  • Hawkins: under 1:twice, 1-1.5: once, over 1.5: 3 times (twice over 3) - here is Mr. Pressure both 3+'s he came in with a 2 run lead and left with a 2 run lead

Well, that tells a tale doesn't it?  Clearly the guy Gibbons trusts most in 'oh crap' situations is Hawkins.  He still doesn't fully trust Hendriks and Sanchez he uses a lot but not in the 'oh no' situations.


James W - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#309467) #
Supposing Sanchez is unavailable tonight (I have no idea), then are you saying the Jays should not have used him last night, in case there might be a better time to use him tonight?
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#309468) #
James W. Precisely. Using the rested Lowe last night would mean that both Lowe and Sanchez would have been fully rested for tonight. As long as the chances of a close game in the 8th tonight (within 2 runs either way) are greater than 0, the team would benefit by having both pitchers available tonight.
Intricated - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#309469) #
Only 5 other pitchers this season have had as many relief appearances and are the same age or younger than Sanchez.  As we well know, two others pitch(ed) for the Jays. 
GR aLI 	LevHi	LevMd	LevLo	Runr	>3o	IPmult	0DR	Out/GR	Pit/GR	Name	        Age	Tm
13 1.607 4	5	4	6	4	4	3	2.8	15	Miguel Castro	20	TOR
52 1.446 22	17	13	20	13	14	11	3.2	16	Roberto Osuna	20	TOR
14 0.509 2	3	8	4	8	8	0	5.2	28	B. Finnegan	22	KCR
27 0.997 10	5	9	2	3	3	7	3.1	15	Trevor Gott	22	LAA
53 1.244 29	9	15	12	5	7	10	2.7	16	Keone Kela	22	TEX
13 1.000 7	5	1	3	0	0	4	2.8	12	Aaron Sanchez	22	TOR
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#309470) #
Jays get a bit of a break tonight:  Chase Utley not expected to be in the lineup for the Phillies tonight, since he might be traded.  (Although with an OPS of .617 this year, I suppose he's not that crucial to the Phillies lineup any more.)


robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#309471) #
Well, that tells a tale doesn't it? Clearly the guy Gibbons trusts most in 'oh crap' situations is Hawkins. He still doesn't fully trust Hendriks and Sanchez he uses a lot but not in the 'oh no' situations. If you put it to Gibbons that he does not trust Sanchez, he would likely laugh in your face. Not only is he the hardest working reliever on the team, he pitches in the key 8th inning. Unless you are jesting, you are presupposing that Gibbons KNOWS which situations are high leverage are which are not, something almost every manager seems hard-wired to resist learning. From my perspective, Gibbons manages as if leverage index is totally irrelevant. He just slots in guys based on inning and or score.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#309472) #
Northey. Was at least one of those Hawkins high leverage situations perhaps when Sanchez was suspended? I wouldn't read anything into the high leverage uses of Blue Jays relievers.

Because Gibbons doesn't consider leverage index in his choice of reliever, it is likely to produce random results. If you break down your stat by which inning the pitcher entered that should become clearer.
jjdynomite - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#309473) #
Although to be fair, Robert, it seems that Gibbons has more recently inserted Hawkins in mid-inning in high(er) leverage situations. I think he understands that R.O.B. is easier for a seasoned vet like Hawkins to handle.

When Gibby tried that mid-inning with Sanchez last Friday, Beltran said thank you very much. I am sure if Sanchez started off with a bases-empty inning we'd have had a different result (as he'd have had to been pretty lousy to cough up 3 runs on his own).
pubster - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#309474) #
I say pitch Sanchez everyday if they're winning.

If they pitched Sanchez to start the 8th against the Yankees in the first game of their last series they probably win that series and are in first place.

Give sanchez the 8th. Osuna the 9th. Everytime they are winning. Unless its a laugher.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#309475) #
Finally, there is no evidence that Sanchez's usage has been sufficiently high to hurt him. When I've seen pitchers overworked (Wood, Prior, Verlander and Bonderman etc...) it is written all over them and it typically shows up in velocity declines or control issues. Velocity declines or control issues indicate the damage has already been done. The idea is to try to NEVER get to that point unless absolutely necessary. This is the problem. Nobody knows where the line is for any given pitcher, but everyone knows is that the more you use a pitcher, the closer you get to (or cross over) that line. For me, a young pitcher appearing in 4 games in 6 DAYS, regardless of how many pitches he throws during the game, is inherently risky. If the Jays had been leading by a run, or the game was tied, I would have agreed that the risk is worth taking. But in an 8-5 scenario, the difference between Sanchez and Lowe in terms of expected winning percentage (even assuming that Sanchez is the better pitcher at this point- far from proven) for the team is exceptionally low to virtually non-existent (tangotiger could probably shed some light on this).
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#309476) #
".... Unless you are jesting, you are presupposing that Gibbons KNOWS which situations are high leverage are which are not, something almost every manager seems hard-wired to resist learning. From my perspective, Gibbons manages as if leverage index is totally irrelevant. He just slots in guys based on inning and or score...."

Once again, the "stupidity theory" rears its head.  Fans presuming that baseball managers are less intelligent than they are.  Evidence?  The managers sometimes make a decision that the fans disagree with.  Ergo, they must be less intelligent than the fans. They must have no idea what "high leverage" means.  They must have no idea about specific match-ups, the strengths and weaknesses of various pitchers and hitters, the health and DL risk of various relievers, the capacity of various pitchers for a heavy workload, etc.  Managers must know nothing about any of this -- they do nothing except "slot in guys based on inning and/or score."


John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#309477) #
Perhaps I should've worded it a bit fancier...
For situations where the game is in deep danger, tying run on base - Hawkins is more likely to get the call than Sanchez. But if it is the 8th inning and the Jays lead then Sanchez gets the ball and if you start an inning you rarely get those 3+ leverage situations. Gibbons likes vets for that and Hawkins has rewarded him on those cases.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#309478) #
I suspect that is where it is going...much like in the old Ward/Henke days. Gaston would bring in Ward for the 8th and Henke for the 9th almost every time it seemed from 89-92, with Ward getting the 9th as well if the Jays expanded the lead so it wasn't a save anymore (thus the crazy innings for Ward back then).

I'd expect to see Gibbons go with Sanchez in the 8th, then Osuna in the 9th unless the lead expands then let someone else pitch the 9th if it is a 4+ run lead although if Osuna is very rested (2+ days off) he might let Osuna go in anyways. Gibbons seems to know how much better relievers perform if given the start of an inning and we're seeing that more and more often - 1 inning for pitcher A, then another for B, etc. Given the results I'd say to keep doing that.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#309479) #
[I am already regretting this]Chinafan,

And your evidence that Gibbons DOES know about LI and DOES think it is very important? He sure doesn't act like he thinks it's important.

Perhaps you have not read Bill James, but a certain Oakland GM sure has. Perhaps you do not know that James relentlessly attacked baseball conventional wisdom and pointed out the foibles of managers and YES the sheer stupidity of some of their strategies and tactics.

A generation later, many of James's ideas had broken into baseball officialdom and in turn have become conventional wisdom.

chinafan, as ever, evading the issue at hand by obfuscating.

This idea that the manager or general manager always knows best is sheer poppycock and is the last refuge of those who can't or won't construct a meritorious argument.

robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#309480) #
I'd expect to see Gibbons go with Sanchez in the 8th, then Osuna in the 9th unless the lead expands then let someone else pitch the 9th if it is a 4+ run lead although if Osuna is very rested (2+ days off) he might let Osuna go in anyways. Gibbons seems to know how much better relievers perform if given the start of an inning and we're seeing that more and more often - 1 inning for pitcher A, then another for B, etc. Given the results I'd say to keep doing that. I'm not exactly clear on your position. Do you think that tonight, if the Jays lead by 1,2, or 3 runs in the 8th inning we will see Sanchez come into the game for the 5th time in 7 days. What I am asking is, is there any limit to Sanchez' deployment in the 8th inning other than the score of the game?
christaylor - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#309481) #
"This is the problem. Nobody knows where the line is for any given pitcher, but everyone knows is that the more you use a pitcher, the closer you get to (or cross over) that line."

I am not convinced that mere usage is a problem when deciding on how often to use a pitcher. Pitching when tired has been shown to be an issue that can lead to injury (if my memory of an article in Baseball By The Numbers is correct) but, correct me if I'm wrong, I can't think of anything other than anecdotal evidence about Japanese pitchers (and that's an extreme case), that mere usage will lead to pitcher injury/ineffectiveness.

Given Sanchez was slated for a starter's work-load I don't see the point in getting worked up about over-use (yet)... but as was stated Lowe should have been used, if only both Lowe and Sanchez would be available tonight.

On another note, during Googling I found several articles that advocated lowering the mound to decrease arm injuries... interesting thought. It would fight baseball's recent decline in offense (which could be a good thing or bad thing depending on where one sits on the issue).
Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#309483) #
Nobody knows where the line is for any given pitcher, but everyone knows is that the more you use a pitcher, the closer you get to (or cross over) that line.

Have the Blue Jays sustained any serious reliever injuries during Gibbons' tenure? I can't think of any. Casey Janssen was a bit gimpy last year, and maybe you could argue Gibbons worked Loup into the ground, but that's it. Oh, Neil Wagner had TJ surgery, so you could possibly pin that on Gibbons.

Based on the evidence so far, it seems like Gibbons has a pretty good idea of where the line is when it comes to bullpen arms.
christaylor - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#309484) #
"What I am asking is, is there any limit to Sanchez' deployment in the 8th inning other than the score of the game?"

I sure hope so -- because if there isn't it would be good evidence for the "stupidity theory" and I agree, there is very little evidence that managers use LI. There may or may not be a reason for that, as been pointed out on this site before, pitchers are people, people like having defined roles, especially people with very disrupted lives, like ball players, who find themselves jetting around North America. Bill James notorious scoffed at psychology, one of his greatest weaknesses as a theorist of the game, I believe.
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#309485) #
"....This idea that the manager or general manager always knows best is sheer poppycock and is the last refuge of those who can't or won't construct a meritorious argument...."

Of course I never said "the manager always knows best" and never implied it either.   That's just your reductive way of trying to dismiss my viewpoint.  Earlier in this thread, I gave a bunch of reasons why the Sanchez decision yesterday was fine, and I included a lot of data.  You disagree, and that's fine.  I don't care if you insult me personally, it's your style of argument and it's what you prefer, so that's fine.  But what I object to is your sweeping attack on Gibbons, saying (and I quote directly from your post):  "He just slots in guys based on inning and or score...."   If you want to imply that Gibbons is an unthinking robot who merely "slots in guys" based on inning or score, the burden of proof is on you. 
jjdynomite - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#309486) #
Robert I know you're in part being obdurate in counterpoint to CF, but so it is.

The fact that managers and GMs make mistakes and hold rigid (to some of us) managerial styles doesn't mean they're not also Bill James readers -- so are therefore troglodytes who do the Ward/Henke Sanchez/Osuna two-step no matter the situation. Because of course, unconventional Bill James followers like Beane never, ever make mistakes -- such as mortgaging the farm for 17 starting pitchers in the 2014 pennant race, or trading a possible AL MVP under long-term control for the pu pu platter of Lawrie and prospects.

Fact is, Gibbons seems to have the entire clubhouse in his corner; hell, even Mr. Ship Is Sinking himself endorsed Gibbons from afar for this second go-around. And if AA and Gibbons win the WS, they will be the proud owners of one more ring than Beane has.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#309487) #
No question there is a limit. Sanchez isn't off limits tonight but odds are we'll see Hawkins given the 8th if needed I suspect with Lowe getting the 7th. These specific roles rules are always shuffled depending on how tired pitchers are. Even in 89-92 Gaston would use Ward in the 9th sometimes to give Henke a day off or Timlin or someone else in the 8th to give Ward a day off (very rarely).

I suspect the order now is pretty much what we saw last night... Hendriks-Cecil-Hawkins-Sanchez-Osuna with others saved for extra innings or super-early knock outs. Given they all had 10-18 pitches each I suspect all are available if needed - especially with a day off tomorrow - but ideally just Lowe/Schultz will be used in a Jays blowout win :) You want Sanchez/Osuna at full strength for 3 vs the Angels who are 4-6 in their last 10 but won 2 in a row and hold the last wild card position right now just 2 1/2 out of 1st in the west.
Dewey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#309488) #
 “I don't think it really matters . . . .”

Yes, I know, Kasi.   That was the point of my post, I suppose.  Odd, however, that you don’t recognize a distinction between quantity and number.  Between how much and how many. 

I’m curious about what specific dictionary you cited.  There are hundreds of them.  Some are good; some, not so much.  When I see “the dictionary” cited, I tend to grow wary.   Any dictionary that believes  “amount”, “quantity” and “number” are synonyms is pretty rudimentary indeed.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#309489) #
Rogers would be extremely foolish to let Anthopoulos walk after this season.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#309490) #
Wouldn't it make sense, given we agree on the uncertainty of where the line for pitching injury risk is, and being therefore largely unknowable to everyone including the manager, that steps be taken to EVEN OUT the use of relief pitchers somewhat?

The logical extension of that thought is that in low-leverage situations you want to use your most rested pitcher adequate to the task. I don't think anyone has argued that a veteran pitcher who is having a great year, like Mark Lowe, can't be trusted with a three-run lead in the 8th inning. If they did, I think they would be categorically wrong.

If we discuss this issue not from the perspective of what the manager actually did and whether we agree or disagree, but rather from the neutral perspective: "given this situation and having a choice between Sanchez and Lowe (and Schultz for that matter), what reasons lead us to choose Sanchez over Lowe and vice versa" it might lead to a more productive discussion.

Let's tote them up and see which one makes more sense. Whichever side that is is likely to be the "correct" decision.
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#309491) #
"....Not sure how fair it is to cherry pick. Aaron Sanchez himself gave up a game-losing homerun in Price's start just a few days ago...."

Chuck, that's a fair point.  I didn't mean to imply that we should judge Mark Lowe on the basis of one bad outing.  So let me add some data on the decision to choose Sanchez over Lowe last night.  Obviously there is disagreement among Bauxites about whether a 3-run lead is a safe one or whether it needed a high-leverage pitcher to lock it down, and I don't think we're going to resolve that disagreement, since it's really a subjective call -- different people will see it different ways.  But purely on the comparison between Lowe and Sanchez in their performance as relievers, I think first of all Lowe's career numbers are worth considering, since it's possible that he's been benefiting from some good fortune in his 39 appearances this year and he might regress closer to his career numbers at some point this season.  Second, I think it's pretty clear that Sanchez has been substantially superior as a reliever this year and over his career.  His opponents have a slash line of .103/.146/.179 this season.  Over his career as a reliever, his opponents have a slash line of .122/.188/.169.  That's pretty incredible.  By comparison, the opponent slash line against Lowe this season is a more ordinary .243/.298/.331.  And over his career as a reliever, Lowe's opponents have a slash line of .258/.334/.409.  So just on the face of it, I see a big difference between the two pitchers, and I can see why Gibbons would have had a strong preference for Sanchez over Lowe last night, unless he considered that Sanchez was over-worked or unless he considered that the lead was safe. 
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#309492) #
One more interesting note... saw Postseason probabilities on MLB.com and the Jays were at 10.8% back on May 23rd but are up to 92.6% today.

On May 23rd the Jays lost to Seattle with Valencia in LF, Tolleson at 2B, Goins at SS for Reyes, Osuna came in for the 8th and Cecil for the 9th. Former Jays draft pick James Paxton was pitching for Seattle (100 ERA+ this season in 10 starts but on DL since May 28th). Buehrle had a 5.13 ERA after that game. To see how different all our worries were go to http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20150522185829764

Lots of talk about Pythag and how the Jays need a hot streak and complaining about our pen.
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#309493) #
"....what reasons lead us to choose Sanchez over Lowe..."

I hadn't seen this question at the time of my last post, which was addressed to Chuck.  But my last post does provide some data for the Sanchez-vs-Lowe question.  And I certainly welcome debate and disagreement on it.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#309494) #
I suspect the order now is pretty much what we saw last night... Hendriks-Cecil-Hawkins-Sanchez-Osuna with others saved for extra innings or super-early knock outs. Given they all had 10-18 pitches each I suspect all are available if needed - especially with a day off tomorrow - but ideally just Lowe/Schultz will be used in a Jays blowout win :) You want Sanchez/Osuna at full strength for 3 vs the Angels who are 4-6 in their last 10 but won 2 in a row and hold the last wild card position right now just 2 1/2 out of 1st in the west. Given how good the starting rotation has been and is, and how rare a Jays blowout loss has been recently (and is likely to continue), that usage is a recipe to overwork Sanchez, Hawkins and Osuna in that order, and underuse everyone else. So some of you think 4 appearances in 6 days is fine (or even 5 in 7). How about 20 appearances in 30 days? If the current usage of Sanchez continues, that latter figure is a possibility, simply due to the high frequency of close games the Jays will be involved in. Extrapolated to a full season, that work load is approximately 120 appearances and 120 innings of relief.
pubster - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#309495) #
Everybody makes mistakes (even Battersbox posters!)

Gibbons makes mistakes. But he probably makes less mistakes managing the Jays than I would, and I know WAY more about baseball than Gibbons will ever know.

The same can probably be applied to other posters on this site (not just me)
China fan - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#309497) #
John, thanks for posting the May 22-25 thread from the Seattle series -- one of the nadirs of our frustrations this year.  Always interesting to see the mood back then, when the Jays were in last place.  I think Mike Green gets an award for prescience for this comment on May 24: "For what it's worth, I still think this is a very good ballclub despite the results. I thought before the season that the club had the best everyday lineup in baseball, and nothing I have seen changes that view.  They have had a whack of injuries and currently look so-so, but any team would. The pitching has been the worst in the major leagues, and I really don't believe that they are that bad."

And I added my own optimistic comment on the same day:  "If the starting pitching is finally beginning to round into decent form, and you combine it with one of the best-hitting lineups in the majors, the Jays still have a chance to put something together this season.  Especially since they're only 4.5 games out of first place, despite all the bad luck and injuries."
Kasi - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#309498) #
Oxford if that matters. (this is what google uses for its default dictionary in the search engine) http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/amount

Anyway I still don't think the distinction you're making really exists. I wouldn't use quantity just because that would sound odd, but I don't think there is any difference between saying "number of an occurance" and "amount of an occurance".
Intricated - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#309499) #
Possible reasons for Sanchez > Lowe, in no particular order.

Current Health affecting Current Performance: Lowe is nursing a non-DLing injury, Sanchez is not.  Lowe has appeared once since Aug 9.

Endurance Test For Near-term Performance Assessment: After coming back from the DL, Sanchez is being stressed to determine how far he can be pushed in September/October when he's "really needed".  Coaching staff already knows Lowe's plateau or prioritize his testing for a future date.

Expected Performance (with Perfect Health) Based on PHI Lineup/Tactics: 2 LHs and then a switch-hitter.  Lowe's not been as good against LHs .270/.343/.349, and 4 of Sanchez's 6 baserunners were lefties (switch-hitting ones too), including both runs against.  Sanchez's "stuff" matched up better than Lowe's vs. Howard/Asche/Galvis.  Bringing in Sanchez deterred PHI from going to their bench.

Expected Performance (with Perfect Health) Based on 2015 Reliever Performance: Someone else brought up the numbers in favour of Sanchez.

Expected Performance (with Perfect Health) Based on Career Reliever Performance: See above.

Game-Context Pitching Order: Sanchez pitches the hold-situation 8th, with Lowe was being saved to pitch the 9th should it become a non-save situation, or more positively, he would have saved Osuna from pitching a non-saving 9th.

See also: recency bias, trust, team morale, player psychology, traditional roles, etc.
jjdynomite - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#309500) #
"But he probably makes less mistakes managing the Jays than I would, and I know WAY more about baseball than Gibbons will ever know."

I assume you're being facetious, pubster, but regardless I think it's important to reconfirm that John Gibbons played in all tiers of professional baseball as a catcher (18 games in The Show for the Mets) and has managed over 1,000 games with major league ballplayers. One would think -- again with his pedigree as a catcher -- that he knows his pitching staff relatively well and has learned techniques along the way to deploy them to the best of their abilities while also maintaining their health for a pending post-season run.

But what do I know.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#309501) #
[This will be a long response, feel free to skip if not interested in managers]

[quote]Bill James notorious scoffed at psychology, one of his greatest weaknesses as a theorist of the game, I believe.[unquote]

This is not correct, I believe. James wrote that managers have to operate on multiple levels to be successful and he thought the best managers have great people skills married to shrewd tactical ability. He argued that deficiencies in one area undermined the strengths in the other and ultimately led to failure. He used the example of Chuck Tanner - James thought that Tanner was a great manager to have when the team was skilled and everything was going well.

Tanner possessed an almost superhuman optimism, always seeing the good side of things and people. That's a great thing to have when things are going well. But he was the opposite of the s-o-b that Herzog could be when he saw something he didn't like in the clubhouse.

Tanners' 1979 Pirates, a team led by ultra-respected veteran Willie Stargell, won the World Series and seemed to be on the rise. They had a seemingly great pitcher in his prime John Candlearia, a great workhorse reliever in Kent Tekulve and an outfielder some regarded as the most talented player in baseball, Dave Parker. That team imploded, James said, when cocaine entered the clubhouse and Tanner turtled up in a "see no evil" shell.

James also regarded Tanner as a mediocre tactician, while regarding his favourite manager (I believe) Whitey Herzog as exceptionally good at tactics. Herzog did many things that were unconventional, such as building a productive offense with one power hitter and a bunch of speed merchants, most of whom could get on base and play excellent defense. He proved that it was possible to build a great offensive team without much power as long as you had enough high OBP guys. Herzog pointed out that even though he had built one of the best all-around base-running teams in history, that team speed was even more valuable on defense.

Another thing that Herzog did that James admired so much, was build a multi-faceted bench. In his book, Herzog said his roster was built to give him as many options during the course of a game AND SEASON as possible. Herzog wrote that he would go over his roster every day and think about various hypothetical situations that might arise and ensure that he had good options available for every one of them. If he found one where he didn't, he would look at his farm teams, or other teams in the league to see if he could fill that need.

Herzog also felt that he should be able to trust every reliever on the squad with the game on the line, otherwise he'd prefer them not to be there. If he only had 5 guys he trusted, then that would be the extent of his bullpen. There are shades of that in Gibbons, except that Herzog kept the appearance numbers of his key relievers down by frequently letting them go multiple innings.

TLDR summary: Bill James included the handling of the clubhouse in evaluating a manager, probably placing more emphasis on that than in-game tactical decisions.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#309502) #
Current Health affecting Current Performance: Lowe is nursing a non-DLing injury, Sanchez is not. Lowe has appeared once since Aug 9. In that case why was Lowe warming up for the 9th.
pooks137 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#309503) #
Have the Blue Jays sustained any serious reliever injuries during Gibbons' tenure? I can't think of any. Casey Janssen was a bit gimpy last year, and maybe you could argue Gibbons worked Loup into the ground, but that's it. Oh, Neil Wagner had TJ surgery, so you could possibly pin that on Gibbons. Based on the evidence so far, it seems like Gibbons has a pretty good idea of where the line is when it comes to bullpen arms.

I'm not sure if you are including his previous tenure Ryan Day, but BJ Ryan was a big ticket closer that got hurt under Gibbons watch in 2007.

I certainly don't blame Gibbons for it, as one of the arguments for giving an unproven closer big money was that he didn't have many miles on his arm and there wasn't much unusual usage in Ryan's prior all-star season (65 gms, 72 ings, back-to-back appearances 13 times, 18 games with >1 ing pitched). But Ryan's elbow still exploded in 2007, basically ending his career and making the contract a loss.

I'm not sure of the frequency of such things, but I am surprised looking at Ryan's 2006 season, Gibbons used Ryan for more than an inning more than 25% of the time, which seems high to me and I doubt the same holds true for any subsequent closers like Janssen/Osuna/Cecil, though I haven't checked the stats.

robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#309504) #
Endurance Test For Near-term Performance Assessment: After coming back from the DL, Sanchez is being stressed to determine how far he can be pushed in September/October when he's "really needed". Coaching staff already knows Lowe's plateau or prioritize his testing for a future date. LOL, I'll give you $5 if Gibbons ever publicly states this is what he is doing with Sanchez. Not to mention it isn't too bright. Oops I stress-tested Sanchez and now he's injured and done for the year. My bad!
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#309505) #
Realistically I don't see Gibbons being 100% slave to Sanchez in every 8th inning with a lead of 3 or less, Osuna in the 9th no matter what with a 3 run or less lead. Last I checked he does have a brain. So when someone is tired expect the rest to move up a slot (ie: Hawkins for Sanchez, Sanchez for Osuna, etc.) so if there are a tons of close games in a row eventually you'd get Hendriks closing but odds are against that.
pubster - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#309506) #
jjdynomite,

Gibbons put Sanchez in the 8th yesterday when he should obviously have put in Lowe.

After that I find it hard to believe you can argue he knows more about baseball than I do!

(obviously im just kidding). But seems like some ppl arent!

Cant wait for the game tonight!
electric carrot - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#309507) #
I was expecting that Navarro would catch Buehrle tonight -- since that's worked well in the past and Martin does seem worn down and not really hitting.
scottt - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#309508) #
It's probably a self-realizing prophecy.  Lowe, not getting enough innings to stay sharp, might not perform well when he does get called, once a week.

The irritating thing about the 8-man bullpen, is that Gibby likes to have 1 or 2 pitchers on the bench that he doesn't use.
With time you realize that, even if he had 2 more bench players he would probably not use them either and you think about something else.

Martin is probably getting enough rest from the day offs and so the backup catcher is not needed. Navarro would have likely pitched in an afternoon game.

electric carrot - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#309509) #
Martin is probably getting enough rest from the day offs and so the backup catcher is not needed. Navarro would have likely pitched in an afternoon game.

I just realized the Phillies starter is a lefty and that no doubt made it a no-brainer.
christaylor - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#309510) #
Psychology is a B.S. dump. - Bill James from the historical abstract

See:

https://books.google.com/books?id=3uSbqUm8hSAC&pg=PA349&lpg=PA349&dq=bill+james+on+psychology+baseball&source=bl&ots=1mo1h72Ktm&sig=5mKnezSygcZMyS5P6MGLfJ9nO48&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAmoVChMIpID7lJu2xwIVQ2g-Ch2c2AJi#v=onepage&q=bill%20james%20on%20psychology%20baseball&f=false

I think it is fair to say he scoffed at Psychology.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#309511) #
He's right. The field of psychology is filled with pseudoscience. That doesn't mean it is all worthless, or that James thinks that.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#309512) #
Northey. I realize this calls for pure speculation, but do you believe that Gibbons believes Sanchez is "tired" today and so will not use him for the fifth time in seven days?
John Northey - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#309513) #
I suspect unless it is a one run game late he'll let Sanchez sit.  At least I hope so.  Sanchez isn't off limits but ideally has today off.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#309514) #
Why would it be a 'no-brainer' to start Martin over Navarro vs. a lefty? When Navarro first signed, people were high on his ability to hit lefties. Martin has been slumping of late, and Navarro normally catches Buehrle. Martin's being ridden hard. He's been asked to start night/day. I expected Navarro.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#309515) #

Sanchez isn't off limits but ideally has today off.

Buehrle and the outfield defence look like they're trying to make sure of it.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#309516) #
"And your evidence that Gibbons DOES know about LI and DOES think it is very important? He sure doesn't act like he thinks it's important."

I think every bullpen decision made this year exhibits a clear recognition of the importance of leverage.

Four Seamer - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#309517) #

I think every bullpen decision made this year exhibits a clear recognition of the importance of leverage.

Including July 26th, when he brought Aaron Loup in to pitch the 10th inning, and promptly lose it on a bases empty jack?  I think Gibbons generally does a good job with his bullpen, but the notion that he has mastered the subject is not, in my view, supported by the evidence.

scottt - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#309518) #
I think point I wouldn't let Buehrle hit again. Or is there a point in resting the back of the pen some more?
electric carrot - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#309519) #
Why would it be a 'no-brainer'

I was thinking Navarro too, but Martin has .987 OPS against lefties this year, hits them pretty well in his career and he needs to break out of his hitting slump. So if he's not hurting ...
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#309520) #
my evidence would be that Gibbons has used his rp in pretty much the exact order that their WPA ranks them, aside from leaning on the proven cecil and loup early on despite their struggles.

WPA

1.Osuna 0.91
2.Hawkins 0.39
3.Sanchez 0.31
4.Delabar 0.11
5.Schultz -0.02
6.Cecil -0.13
7.Tepera -0.25
8.Hendriks -0.26
9.Lowe -0.42
10.Castro -1.10
11.Loup -1.36

that seems to explain pretty much perfectly why gibby leans on osuna sanchez and hawkins, leans away from hendriks and lowe, and demoted castro and loup.
scottt - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#309521) #
That didn't exactly work out as planned.
scottt - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#309522) #
Wouldn't WPA depends on how Gibbons use them?
hypobole - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#309523) #
So who's going to pitch tonight, Hague or Goins?
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#309525) #
sure glad we used Sanchez to hold the 3 run lead yesterday in this band box.
robertdudek - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#309526) #
Silly me for thinking a meritorious discussion without moronic comments intervening was possible on this discussion thread. All the idiots and trolls - you win. You have made a sewer of this once proud site and though it took me a long time to reach the end of the line, it's arrived.

I'll be posting occasional articles and responding to posts on them, but this is the very last post you will ever see from me in any other thread until the vermin are gone.

Bye!
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#309527) #
after all the stuff you've dished out, you take offense to that? and ignore the information rich post prior to it? wow.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#309528) #
interesting night for the homeplate ump.

i know their pitchers got a massive zone....not so sure ours did.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#309529) #
I'm starting to think robert is a really smart 8 year old.

Dan Norris hit a bomb in his first MLB AB tonight. Straight away CF vs. John Lester.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#309530) #
Russell Martin needs some time off.  When he runs out a chopped groundball like that, it means that the hamstring injury must surely be affecting other parts of his game.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#309531) #
Yeah, Mike, Martin looked awful "running" to first. And did he even make it halfway to second on Pillars grounder?
BlueMonday - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#309533) #
Why didn't Gibby pinch run Martin with Goins in the 9th (not that it woulda made a diff with Pillar's at bat)?

Robert, please hang around. I loved watching watching Whitey Herzog's teams. Are there managing metrics (Bill James or otherwise) that support his managing over Chuck Tanner's?
cruzin - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#309534) #
If you heard Gibbons response to a reporter's question about giving Martin time off, either he's in denial or just being flippant about it.

Kasi - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#309535) #
Good old Gibby. Run with his favs, even if you run them down.
John Northey - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#309536) #
I remember something about Gaston that used to drive people nuts was giving his top guys a day off before the team had a day off to give them a full 2 days rest .  I think it might have been a good idea for Gibby to do that with Martin which he sadly didn't do.  Gaston had his flaws but that was something that I thing was a great idea as often two straight days off will make a sore muscle feel much better than just one off.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 06:30 AM EDT (#309537) #
Blue Jays play 9 of their next 15 games against their wild-card competitors - the Angels, Orioles and Rangers. The Angels and Orioles are both 2 games back of Toronto in the loss, with the Rangers having lost 1 game more.
hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#309538) #
Going back to that awkward moment last night, it seems very likely it was my "moronic" Hague or Goins remark intervening in the "meritorious discussion" that sent him over the edge.

I posted it shortly after Schultz gave up his second HR in the 5th, and was merely an attempt at black humour in what was shaping up to be an ugly, dreary game, a game I had the misfortune of watching instead of participating in his discussion. I rechecked my comment in nested mode, thinking I may have accidentally replied to him rather than the game thread itself. I hadn't.

I have further thoughts, but I'll keep those to myself.

BTW, the answer to my question was neither, it was Chris Denorfia, who Madden used after his pen couldn't stop getting shelled.


Jonny German - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#309539) #
You're being too hard on yourself hypobole, I think it was clear that your comment was a joke. I know I chuckled.
scottt - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#309540) #
So, following the streak the Jays are 2 and 3 and are heading to the west coast. It looks like Griffin will win this one.
pubster - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#309541) #
The biggest mistake Gibby made this series was pitching Sanchez in the first game. If he had pitched Lowe in the first game then Sanchez would have been available for yesterdays game.

Things like this can make a big difference.

(Im just joking) =)
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#309542) #
John - iirc Gibbons has used that double offday tactic a few times this year already, including for Martin.

And I imagine with 3 offdays within a week, he's not feeling any great need to give extra days off. And Martin hasn't exactly been getting ridden hard this year.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#309543) #
Martin is on pace for 645 PA and 135 games played, his highest totals since he was 25 years old (7 years ago). Only 5 catchers in MLB have played more than him this year, and only 1 of them is as old as him (Yadier Molina). None of them have to catch the knuckleball.

How would you define “ridden hard”?
hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#309544) #
To put a slightly more positive spin, since winning streaks always end with a loss, we're actually 2-2 since it ended.

Were the poor performances of Dickey and Buehrle just randomness or might there have been some psychological after-effect of the Hutch demotion?

Jose does not look good in RF, and the metrics back up the eye test. Both DRS and UZR have him as a significant negative. Bottom 20% by both metrics for players with 300 innings.

On the other hand, Tulo has not carried his hitting woes onto the field. He's been excellent defensively.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#309545) #
Martin's catching workload (aside from the Dickey factor) is basically consistent with his work pattern from 2011-2013 (1050 innings behind the plate per season- he is now at 790).  He is 2 years older, and there is the Dickey factor to be taken into account.  It seems clear to me from watching him that he needs a significant period of time off.  The club can do that with Navarro and Thole, and I don't know why they wouldn't. 

Magpie has been saying this for some time (right again, young man!).
Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#309546) #
Were the poor performances of Dickey and Buehrle just randomness or might there have been some psychological after-effect of the Hutch demotion?

To even throw the latter out as speculation does these pitchers a great disservice. Are these two veterans really so emotionally fragile that their performances could so easily be affected? I find it awfully difficult to accept such a premise. Hutchison didn't die, he was just demoted to AAA for two weeks.

uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#309547) #
Jonny German, there's maybe 15 catchers in baseball who are full time non platoon starters and have been healthy all year, and Martin ranks middle of the pack amongst them in usage.
Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#309548) #
Both DRS and UZR have him as a significant negative.

Perhaps, but BAP* has him as "one of the best in the game." Who you gonna believe?

*BAP = Buck and Pat

John Northey - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#309549) #
Considering how frustrating this week has been it still hasn't cost much.  Just 2 out of first.  BR's SRS score has the Jays best in baseball at 1.3 Yankees at 0.8.  After the LAA and Texas series the Jays 'rest' games are vs Detroit and Cleveland before facing off against Baltimore, breather vs Boston (if that can be called a breather), then the Yankees Sept 10 to 13th and 21-23rd those 7 will be critical to deciding who has the AL East crown.  Finishing in Tampa Bay will be tough but could be poetic - Jays winning the AL East and celebrating in Tampa would be sweet after the pain that team has caused over the years.  Plus there probably would be more Jay fans there than Tampa fans.
hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#309550) #
Just looked at pitch framing stats for Martin and Navarro. Martin has gone from very good in previous years to about neutral, with the Dickey effect playing part I assume. Navarro rates poorly again.

However, Harry Pavlidis (who writes for BP) published an ESPN article about quantifying catchers game calling skills. Just wondering if BP,or any other site, actually posts those stats, and if so, how do Martin and Navarro fare?
Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#309551) #
Martin has gone from very good in previous years to about neutral, with the Dickey effect playing part I assume.

I would certainly agree with this assumption. Watching on TV, umpires seem to miss a good number of Dickey's strikes. Blaming those missed calls on Martin's "poor" framing seems unfair.

hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#309552) #
Chuck, are you saying my "correlation always implies causation" theory may somehow be incorrect?
China fan - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#309553) #
Lots of bad news piling up for the Jays in the past few days.  Dickey and Buehrle came up with bad games. Tulo, Martin, Revere and Pillar are in hitting slumps.  Travis won't be back any time soon.  Over the past 11 games, the Jays are averaging only 4.3 runs per game, which is down significantly from their season average.  And it was just revealed last night that Martin has a nagging leg injury, which must surely be affecting him.

What to do about it?  Probably nothing.  The bad news is likely to turn around at some point soon.  The Jays can't do much with Dickey and Buehrle -- they are likely to rebound on their own, as they usually have in the past. One assumes that Brook Jacoby is working with the slumping hitters to make the necessary adjustments.  Most of them have long histories of hitting very well, so all you can do is keep running them out and giving them the playing time to fight their way out of their slumps. 

I do agree, however, that Navarro should be getting more time in place of Martin.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#309554) #
Fun fact about Mark Buehrle, 2015.  There has been one stolen base attempt against him.  The runner was caught.  He has picked off two.  That's what you call controlling the running game.. I wonder how often a pitcher goes through a season without allowing a stolen base.
Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#309555) #
Chuck, are you saying my "correlation always implies causation" theory may somehow be incorrect?

It is mendacious, fellacious and downright preposterous. Or at least that's what Jackie Chiles told me.

Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#309556) #
Er, fallacious, not fellacious. Paging Dr. Freud.
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#309557) #
Mike, it's truly phenomenal.

Buehrle has never had a year with no stolen bases against, but he has had THREE years with only 1.

His 58% career caught stealing percentage is exactly double the 29% league average over that time.

He has unbelievable picked off 99 runners in his career, while allowing only 59 stolen bases. Almost double.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#309558) #
Paging Dr. Freud

Message from Dr. Freud: your superego seems to be under control now.  That was a close one!.  By the way, I chuckle every time I read HDMH.
ogator - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#309559) #
Is it time to talk about how weak Jose Bautista is in RF? He is still a valuable asset, but use whatever metric you like (Fangraphs has his overall defensive war at -12.7, Fielding -5.6 and positional at -7.2) but the naked eye says that he is not very effective out there anymore. I'm not sure what plan B is but the first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one.
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#309560) #
I've always been a fan of pushing Bautista towards 1B/DH, but I don't think I'd take a half year of defensive data where he was playing through a shoulder injury as a true sign that he's no good out there anymore.

The possibility of a Pompey/Saunders/Revere/Pillar OF next year is a real one IMO, though.
jerjapan - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#309561) #
Mike and Ugly, that's crazy about Buehrle and the running game.  In this history of the Jays, can you think of any pitcher who has done more with less than Buehrle?   fielding the position and controlling the running game, he seems to work well with his catchers (i find it fascinating that he lets them call the game), he works quickly which i appreciate as a fan, although this fangraphs community posting looking at Buehrle implies that there is no benefit to the defense as a result:

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/do-pitchers-keep-defenses-on-their-toes/

I also find it amazing that he pitched a perfect game, in fact, 14 2/3 consecutive perfect innings which was a record when he pulled it off.  He certainly has the worst stuff of any of the modern era pitchers to pull of the perfecto, although Phillip Humber certainly is the biggest surprise on the list.   

I sincerely hope the chatter around him liking Toronto gives us a chance to resign the guy - we will need an innings eater and I love watching the man pitch. 


Thomas - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#309562) #
Uglyone, I think it's more instructive to examine Martin's workload in absolute terms, rather than compare him to catchers in platoon situations. Just because Martin ranks in the middle of full-time catchers in terms of usage, doesn't lead to the conclusion he doesn't have a significant workload.

Martin has one of the heavier usage patterns of all catchers in baseball, which is compounded by his age and the additional stress of catching the knuckeball. I think there'd be a strong case to give him additional rest with an eye towards the playoffs even if he appeared to be at full health, which he certainly does not to the naked eye.
jerjapan - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#309563) #
much has been made of having Navarro as a quality backup this year, to justify his salary, so I agree that Martin needs more rest.  Looking at him running is painful. 
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#309564) #
I can't agree there, Thomas.

The fact that other catchers sit more because they need to be platooned or just aren't very good doesn't mean that Martin is overworked, imo.

Martin is one of the best catchers in baseball, doesn't need to be platooned, and hasn't been injured this year - it seems obvious that he'd be near the top of the games played charts for catchers, though even then he's significantly behind the leaders.
China fan - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#309565) #
"....hasn't been injured this year...."

You've missed the news from last night.  Here it is:   http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-catcher-russell-martin-says-hes-dealing-with-nagging-injury/
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#309567) #
Of course I mean DL time, which has cut down the playing time of many of his competitors.
jjdynomite - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#309568) #
The possibility of a Pompey/Saunders/Revere/Pillar OF next year is a real one IMO, though.

Pompey - 3 career home runs to date in 2 very abbreviated seasons; the jury's still out.
Saunders - 51 career home runs in 7 abbreviated seasons, because he's never healthy.
Revere - 3 career home runs in 6 seasons, but he's a speedster.
Pillar - 12 career home runs in 3 seasons, 2 abbreviated, but lookit those diving catches!

End-Result: If Joey Bats is moved to 1B/DH (making EE full-time DH?) then the Blue Jays' outfield is pretty depressing, especially since 81 games are played in a hitter-friendly park.


hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#309569) #
A bit surprised no one commented on the idea I floated yesterday that AA may be the guy to take Beeston's presidency in addition to his current GM job.

Apparently Shi Davidi seems to be thinking along the same lines.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/anthopoulos-a-potential-fit-as-blue-jays-next-president/
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#309570) #
power would take a hit, sure, but we have plenty of power, and that setup would add so much speed and defense.

question really is whether you think guys like smoak/cola at 1B are more valuable.



Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#309571) #
Is it time to talk about how weak Jose Bautista is in RF?

The team is crowded at 1B/DH and thin in the OF, meaning that Bautista likely best helps the team by playing RF despite his defensive shortcomings. It would seem that uncluttering 1B/DH, particularly if the organization sees Bautista soon needing to move in that direction, and finding some top-end outfield talent will soon be high up on AA's to-do list.

China fan - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#309572) #
Yes, I agree with hypobole's comment, AA's future does warrant more discussion, especially since AA has been such a hot-button issue for so many fans in the past.  Now it's crunch time, and the Jays have to decide on his fate.  If they don't extend his contract or promote him, they'll lose him to another team.  And a decision has to be made soon, since there are key decisions on big contracts and options and extensions and free agents which will need to be made in October and November.  The idea of promoting AA to replace Beeston is an interesting one, but it seems that he probably wouldn't have the exact same job as Beeston currently has -- he might be "President of Baseball Operations" rather than full president.  So I guess that would leave him without very much role on purely business or financial matters.  But on the other hand, there's huge overlap between the baseball issues and the financial issues, since the baseball performance has such an impact on attendance and TV revenue, and since an investment in baseball has an impact on all the team's operations.

Personally I wouldn't want AA to be focusing on financial stuff when his strength seems to be in baseball matters such as scouting, trades, acquisitions, player development etc.   So maybe the "President of Baseball Operations" title would be a good way to keep him around.
uglyone - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#309573) #
yeah give some corporate flak the prez title. let AA handle baseball.
Magpie - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#309576) #
Buehrle said about last night's game that he was actually making better pitches than in his previous three starts. The other guys just hit 'em.

Baseball. Nobody knows anything.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#309577) #
I think the problem with these discussions is that few people seem to know where the lines are drawn in the front office. In LA, Andrew Friedman is the "President, Baseball Operations", and Stan Kasten is "President & CEO". I don't know how that's meaningfully different from Beeston/whoever being President, and AA being VP & GM.

More autonomy, I suppose, but structurally speaking, the Big Boss of the Blue Jays is still going to be subordinate to Rogers bigwigs.
hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#309578) #
Ryan, to take it a step further, none of US know where the lines are drawn. But we can reasonably assume Beeston speaks to Rogers, AA speaks to Beeston. Beeston can make rules (i.e. the supposed 5 yr max contact).

Maybe AA prefers it that way, but I would guess for baseball decisions he would prefer greater autonomy, and he's probably earned it. I'm also guessing he'd also prefer someone else be in charge of things like stadium renos, marketing etc,
rtcaino - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#309579) #
I could see AA becoming Pres, and Lacava getting bumped to GM.
#2JBrumfield - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#309582) #
Randy Wolf is now a Detroit Tiger, being traded for straight cash homey. Wonder if he will be in Toronto by the time the Tigers get here at the end of the month.
hypobole - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#309583) #
I was wondering if part of the deal was lining him up so we get to face him.
Chuck - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#309584) #
Trading three lefty starters to a team you'll be facing is an interesting strategy. Too bad the power hitter of the lot is hurt and will miss the series.
JB21 - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#309585) #
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/cleveland-indians-mark-sharpiro-candidate-to-replace-toronto-blue-jays-paul-beeston-082015
scottt - Thursday, August 20 2015 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#309586) #
Couple from Alberta won 50 millions.

Next weekend, they plan to fly to Toronto to take in a Blue Jays games.

uglyone - Friday, August 21 2015 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#309588) #
almost forgot to add to the Overplaying Martin discussion - 10 of his games and 25 of his plate appearances have come as DH or PH, which is unusual compared to the other top catchers.

In games played at C Martin ranks 8th with 90gms...and that's closer to 21st (75gms) than 1st (107gms).
Mike Green - Friday, August 21 2015 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#309589) #
I took a quick look at the Jay team batting splits to see whether the early tremendous success against LHP has been maintained into the season (it has been slowing), and in the process I came across this little nugget.  In high leverage situations (839 PAs) this year,  the Jays are hitting .294/.349/.500.  That is a fantastic record given that one faces disproportionately better pitching in these situations.  For comparison, the pitchers (who were noticeably bad in this department early in the year) have given up a line of .274/.334/.431. 

I would venture a guess that you won't find too many teams that are 8 games short of their Pythagorean record despite substantially outhitting their opponents in high leverage situations. 
92-93 - Friday, August 21 2015 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#309591) #
Nice catch, Mike. That seems to validate the feeling I'm sure many of us have that despite being down a few runs early, this team is never out of it. There's been very few games played all year where they haven't had a good shot at winning the game.
Mike Green - Friday, August 21 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#309593) #
The August 21 birthday team is a lot of fun, with no Hall of Famers but a solid lineup and many, many familiar names for fans of a certain age:

C-    John Stearns
1B-  John Ellis
2B-  Felix Millan
SS-  Andujar Cedeno
3B-  Craig Counsell
RF- Owen Chief Wilson
CF- Melvin (BJ) Upton
LF- JD Martinez

Bench- Frank Isbell (1B/2B); Johnny Bates (OF), Christian Vazquez (C), Jerry DaVanon (Utility IF), Wes Schumerich (OF/PH)

SP- Murry Dickson
SP- Gerry Staley
SP- Jason Marquis
SP- Ismael Valdes
SP- Bruce Berenyi

RP- John Wetteland
RP- Shawn Hillegas
RP- Frank Pastore
RP- Tim Collins
RP- Jesse Chavez

In addition to Collins and Chavez, Lee Gronkiewicz was born on this day. 

I had never heard of Isbell and Bates before.  They were both good players (of roughly the same quality as Felix Millan and Upton) who played regularly for years during the 1898-1914 period. 

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