Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Here I come to save the day! Or at least, your scrolling fingers...

Today the local baseball squadron have their first of what seems like ten thousand off-days in the next little while, but there are still some potentially interesting happenings tonight in MLB. The Yankees are back in the Bronx tonight to host the Twins after taking two of three from the Blue Jays. Kyle Gibson (8-9, 3.75) goes up against Yankee youngster Bryan Mitchell (0-1, 3.72). No Twin has ever faced Mitchell.

The Orioles are in action tonight also, finishing up a wraparound series with the A's. The O's laid a thorough 18-2 beating on Oakland yesterday, resulting in the extremely rare "position player walking an AL pitcher" moment. Sonny Gray (12-4, 2.06) toes the rubber against Chris Tillman (8-7, 4.66), as Baltimore looks to sneak closer towards the top of the AL East. They've won three straight and now hold the second wildcard by half a game over the Angels. Those same Angels are at home against the White Sox tonight in a battle of young hotshot left-handers. Carlos Rodon (5-4, 4.61) goes up against Andrew Heaney (5-1, 2.53) at 10:05 PM Eastern Time.

In the National League, the only game of any playoff significance features the Giants in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals. Chris Heston (11-7, 3.38) opposes Michael Wacha (14-4, 2.93). San Francisco is on the outside of the NL playoff picture looking in: they're 3.5 behind the scorching hot Cubs for the second wildcard and 2.5 back of the NL West leading Dodgers. Fun fact: the Mets (leading the NL East), Cardinals (leading the NL Central), Dodgers (leading the NL West), Pirates (1st WC), Cubs (2nd WC) and Giants are the only NL teams with winning records. The Nationals have lost six straight and are rapidly falling out of contention.

Back to the Jays, they announced a couple of roster moves this afternoon. Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera is back with the big team and he'll be joined by corner infielder Matt Hague. Hague was batting .348 for the Bisons with an OPS of .909 in 531 plate appearances, while splitting his time defensively fairly evenly between third and first base. Hague has 72 previous MLB at-bats, all with the Pirates. He figures to be a useful bat off the bench with a pair of games in an NL park coming up. Going down to Buffalo is starting pitcher Drew Hutchison, which is an interesting move indeed.

Around The Webs:

Sports on Earth takes a look at Johnny Cueto's many different deliveries -- http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/143116464/johnny-cueto-rocking-chair-delivery-kc-royals

Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa says he would love to play NFL football if offered (Don't do it, son! How's that going to help your putting?) -- http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/08/17/143653356/carlos-correa-would-play-for-houston-texans

MLB.com has a compilation of Madison Bumgarner's ten career home runs (he's got a nice swing!) -- http://mlb.mlb.com/cut4/#contentId=143672788

What else is happening?

Posted by Eephus on Monday, August 17 2015 @ 03:44 PM EDT.

Off Day Thread | 91 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mike Green - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#309238) #

If someone had told me at the beginning of the year that Bryce Harper would break through this year but that the Nationals would be below .500, I would have wondered if some infectious disease had been transmitted from politicians to starting pitchers in Washington (hoof-in-mouth disease?). Youneverknow.

JB21 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#309241) #

FGs posted a story on the Collapse of the Nats this morning. There's a table in there that compares some of their core players' WAR vs. LY. It sums to a total of 28.3 LY vs. 0.4 TY.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-collapse-of-the-nationals/

While reading I couldn't help but think how dumb it was for the Nats to shutdown Strasburg a couple years ago.

hypobole - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#309242) #

Not just the starting pitchers, Mike. Cameron today pointed out the group of Rendon, Werth, Desmond, R.Zimmerman, Ramos, Fister, Strasburg, G. Gonzalez accumulated 26.3 WAR between them last year. This year a grand total of 0.4 WAR.

Between the Jays and A's, Felix Doubront Has 0.5 WAR.

hypobole - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#309243) #

Yeah, 28.3 WAR last year.

cruzin - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#309246) #

The curse of being selected as off-season champions continues.

A little surprised with the optioning of Hutchison. I had figured since they gave Hutchison the vote of confidence by giving him the Yankee series finale instead of opting for starting Dickey on short rest, they'd continue along those lines by just shuffling him to the pen. But aside from the possible mental aspect of optioning Hutchison, this move probably makes the most sense for the upcoming road trip.

BlueMonday - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#309247) #

Wow. Gutsy move to park Hutch in Buffalo, hope it was done in consultation with him. You'd hate to see that be something that results in an angry player. Good move to bolster Buffalo for their pennant drive.

whiterasta80 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#309249) #

I'm sure it was done with the explanation that it was solely about maximizing roster flexibility. Plus, the worst thing for a guy who just figured out something mechanical is to start screwing with his schedule. For all we know 6 days rest might set him back. He should go down and show AAA that they can't touch him for a couple of starts.

jjdynomite - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#309250) #

Who doesn't want a 10-day vacation in Buffalo in the summer?

China fan - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#309251) #

Nobody should be too surprised by Hutchison's demotion. Richard Griffin reported yesterday that the Jays were seriously considering it. (Unfortunately a few people just scoffed at it because they don't like Griffin's opinions -- but he wasn't expressing an opinion, he was reporting the facts of what the Jays managers were actively discussing.)

I'm sure the Jays have carefully and sensitively explained to Hutchison that this is not a reflection on his recent performance -- it's mostly a strategy of maximizing David Price's appearances in the coming road trip, while allowing Hutchison to keep sharp by making a start for Buffalo. He's a smart guy, he shouldn't let it bruise his feelings.

Matt Hague was primarily promoted as a pinch-hitter for the Jays pitchers in the NL games. He might be sent down again on Thursday. Depending on bullpen usage over the next two games, another reliever could be promoted to replace him on Thursday, or it could be Thole or someone else.

One technical question: if Hutchison is recalled within 10 days, does he still use an option year? If it would mean that he doesn't use an option year, the Jays might recall him in exactly 10 days.

China fan - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#309252) #

Interestingly, Pompey's minor injury doesn't seem to be the reason why Carrera was called up. Pompey missed two games with a stiff ankle, but he is healthy again and back in the Buffalo lineup today, in the lead-off slot in the lineup and playing CF. He could have been called up if the Jays wanted him as their 4th outfielder, but they preferred Carrera -- probably because Carrera won't get a lot of playing time, and the Jays still want Pompey to be playing every day, rather than sitting on a bench. I know a lot of people here will disagree with that decision.

Richard S.S. - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#309253) #

David Price has pitched extremely well and is not missing any Starts. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle have been consistently good and are not missing any Starts. Marco Estrada has a pleasant surprise and pitches well. He's not missing any Starts. That leaves our most erratic Starter out of work. He's had back to back good Starts to tease everyone and needs regular work to see if his new results are sustainable. He's not getting the work here, AAA's the only reasonable choice.

Lylemcr - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#309254) #

Hutchinson is the 5th starter. The 5th starter is not needed and he is young and needs to get his work in.

Makes sense to me.

Also, I think AA reads this blog and he wants to appease all the fans that hates the 8 pitcher bullpen.

I am very interested to see how Hague does. The Jays seem to have the touch of turning these guys into gold this year.

Richard S.S. - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#309255) #

Hutchison is down for a mandatory 10. Only way he gets up earlier is for someone to be injured.
Sent down once, or sent down for just one day, or up and down like a yo-yo are all the same - an option year gets used when/if he gets recalled.

China fan - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#309256) #

Just checked, and found this: "A player is considered to have used one of those three option years when he spends at least 20 days in the minors in any of those 3 seasons."

So it appears that Hutchison will NOT be using an option year this season, assuming he is recalled for the Aug. 29 game as expected.

JB21 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#309257) #

92-93 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#309258) #

As long as Hutch doesn't spend 20 days in the minors this year an option is not burned.

I doubt there's much to gain by playing any sort of options game with him - if he hasn't shown himself capable of being an MLB starter by 2017, do you really care about having to put him on waivers?

cruzin - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#309259) #

"It's certainly possible that Pompey was going to be the guy but after the injury they decided to keep him in Buffalo to ensure he's fully healthy before any call-up. That may not be the case, but it's a possibility."

That's the theory I'm going with. I also believe they want him to continue having the success he had prior to this minor ankle injury. Last thing you want is to call up Pompey and have him struggle with some lingering affects from the rolled ankle. Call him up when he's hot and showing no ill effects from any injury.

China fan - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#309261) #

On reflection, you guys are right, the injury could have been one of the factors in the Jays decision. They might want to be certain that he's fully recovered. Maybe we'll still see him being called up on Thursday. Although I also think Thole or a reliever are possible too.

robertdudek - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#309262) #

I wonder if the 14 position player roster is temporarily in place for the NL park games. Maybe Gibbons is more afraid of running out of pinch hitters than relievers. We shall see.

JB21 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#309263) #

I was thinking that as well 92-93.

scottt - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#309264) #

There's 2 more days off this week. They decided to skip Hutch rather than move him to the pen for as an 8th or 9th reliever who would have not been used. That's fine. He'll get 1 or 2 starts in Buffalo and should be sharp when needed.

I expected Thole to come up to give Martin a break. With Thursday being another day off, the pen can be used early and having more pinch hitters let you simulate a DH after the 5th inning. We'll see.

hypobole - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#309265) #

(Unfortunately a few people just scoffed at it because they don't like Griffin's opinions -- but he wasn't expressing an opinion, he was reporting the facts of what the Jays managers were actively discussing.)

CF, you may want to reread the thread. Who exactly scoffed at Griffins reporting of Hutch's demotion? One person disagreed, but sans scoffing.

Griffin mixed actual reporting (the demotion) with the ridiculously phrased comments about Jays history and winning streaks. THAT'S what drew derision.

JB21 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#309267) #

The hilarity is that the bench just doubled in size from 3 to 6.

BlueJayWay - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#309268) #

The game on Friday night averaged 2.03 million viewers, peaking at 3.13m for the Tulo at bat.

scottt - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#309269) #

Who exactly scoffed at Griffins reporting of Hutch's demotion?

Dave Till--However, I think that what is not good for the gander might be good for the goose, so to speak. I suggest that, when the Jays have days off, the Toronto Star should send Griffin to Buffalo to report on Bisons games.

Johnny German--Dave Till's proposal is considerably more coherent than Griffin's prediction that the Jays will struggle over the next week. What makes Griffin so confident? Well you see, the Jays have had 5 winning streaks of 10 games or more in franchise history, and each time they went on to be less than great in the following 10 games. And history repeats, don't you know.

I am stupider for having made the mistake of reading that buffoon.

hypobole--Jonny G, I had already copied that ridiculous bit of logical fallacy prior to reading your comment. Here it is for those who are even less inclined to read Griffin than we are.

I laughed.

scottt - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#309270) #

How are those numbers calculated exactly?

JB21 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#309271) #

As well, since the Tulo trade they've averaged 1.27M viewers per game.

Am I crazy or do most teams average less than 100k? I remember reading that the Yankees were the top in the league at something like 200k per game.

JohnL - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#309274) #

Canadian ratings are based in viewers; in the U.S., it's households, so that will account for a big part of the difference.

whiterasta80 - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#309276) #

Only if Jays fans are predominantly catholic...and from 1930...

John Northey - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#309278) #

Checking US numbers via http://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/07/17/prime-time-tv-ratings-for-all-29-u-s-mlb-teams-shows-baseball-ruling-summer-programming/2/ which only checks prime time (thus highest viewership potential) you see range from 28,000 households (ChiSox) to 206,000 (NYY) The Mets are #2 at 180k, then 146k for Boston. Unless the Yankees have 5+ people per household the Jays are easily #1 in baseball for raw viewers and it isn't even close. These are 2015 numbers. Jays average this year is 684k, or NYY need 3 people per household to be close.

The Jays in theory should be extremely profitable for Rogers via TV advertising/etc. as the Jays are getting these ratings at a time of year when TV is a dead zone (summer). So we see the Jays doubling their ratings now that they are a contender. We see they are getting drastically more viewership than any other club in baseball. This means that Rogers can and should be able to afford to keep anyone they want this winter.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 17 2015 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#309280) #

Yeah ... theoretically.

Jonny German - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#309283) #

"Griffin mixed actual reporting (the demotion) with the ridiculously phrased comments about Jays history and winning streaks. THAT'S what drew derision."

Thank you! It drives me nuts that some people, I mean person, chooses to arbitrarily mix comments together to create his own story.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#309284) #

In fact, the thread is pretty clear. Cruzin was the first to mention the possibility that Hutchison could be demoted for a 4-man rotation and an extra bench player. However, he said it was "speculation" by Richard Griffin. I posted the link to Griffin's article simply to make it clear that it wasn't just speculation -- it was factual reporting. Griffin correctly reported that the Jays were seriously considering the idea.

Since roster construction has been a major issue for Bauxites recently, I posted the Griffin link to show that the Jays were seriously considering a change in the roster structure over the next 11 days. One person immediately predicted it wouldn't happen. And then a bunch of people chimed in by ridiculing Griffin's opinions. Now of course they are perfectly entitled to heap ridicule on Griffin's opinions, but it's a rather tired and tedious theme, since people here have been dumping on Griffin's opinions for at least the past 10 years. Moreover, it was very clear that I posted the Griffin link NOT because of his opinions on future winning streaks or whatever, but because of his factual reporting on the roster structure issue. I really thought that the debate would be about the fresh idea of a temporary 4-man rotation, not the ancient debate of whether Griffin is a buffoon or not. Instead people went with the ancient debate. Fine, but I really thought people would be more interested in the fresh debate, not the old debate.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#309285) #

The organization had been intentionally vague about whether Hutchison would make a start after Sunday's for about a week. This wasn't really news until they made a decision.

I wonder if the decision would have been the same had the club not been going to the West Coast in the middle of the road trip. If you kept Hutchison with the big club and went with a 4 man rotation, you'd probably be giving him a relief outing on Saturday or Sunday in Los Angeles. It might be better for him to not make the trip and instead get his usual work in for buffalo.

scottt - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#309286) #

They needed a bigger bench for the games in Philly.

I don't think Gibby wants to be forced into giving relief outing to anyone.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#309288) #

"...This wasn't really news until they made a decision...."

It was news on Sunday. A careful reading of Griffin's article, confirmed by Blair's article the next morning, made it very clear that both of them were reporting on what they were told by Blue Jays inside sources.

Sometimes journalists can't disclose everything that they are told, because it's off-the-record. But they can hint very clearly at what they are told, and that's what Griffin did. It's up to us to read the reports intelligently and to separate the wheat from the chaff. In this case, it was clear to me from Griffin's article that Hutchison's likely demotion had entered the realm of news, not speculation.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#309289) #

CF - You may have wanted to "debate" the 4 man, but it seems most people didn't. It seems most people agree the 4 man rotation makes a lot of sense. There were a few counterpoints mentioned earlier. There was a guess it wouldn't happen.

You also posted the Blair article, which you were thanked for, and to me at least, was thoughtful and interesting. But that didn't cause much debate either.

Now, if you do want to debate, take Griffin's side on his winning streak history lesson, and I'm sure a few of us will be more than happy to oblige.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#309290) #

"...take Griffin's side on his winning streak history lesson..."

Never! In fact, I didn't even bother reading that part of his article.

jerjapan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#309291) #

Thank you! It drives me nuts that some people, I mean person, chooses to arbitrarily mix comments together to create his own story.

This is trolling, isn't it? And, IMO, inaccurate.

As it was when you called my comments 'absurd' and justified it with the straw man fallacy a few days ago.

Can we please stop personalizing the debate around here? I've been guilty of it myself, and am fully apologetic of anytime I've been too blunt in my opinion.

Odd that this negativity creeps in when the Jays are playing their most exciting ball in 20 years!

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#309293) #

The August 18 birthday team has famous and somewhat infamous names from baseball's history:

C- Bruce Benedict/Mike Lavalliere
1B- Jack Howell
2B- Bernie Friberg
SS- Sam Wise
3B- Buck Weaver
RF- Roberto Clemente
CF-Bobby Higginson
LF- Bob Kennedy
Bench- The Immortal Joe Azcue, Wally Gerber, Evan Gattis, William (Hotel) Marriott or Bob Zupcic (probably Zupcic as he could play centerfield).

SP- Burleigh Grimes
SP- Max Lanier
SP- Albie Lopez
SP- Gus Dorner
SP- Hal Goldsmith

RP- Bob James
RP- Justin Wilson
RP- Billy Consolo
RP- Daniel Webb
RP- Josh Rupe

The Blue Jay birthday belongs to Brian Bowles.

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#309294) #

To be honest, I thought that the Hutchison demotion was Griffin's idea. Obviously, I was wrong. It keeps me humble. :-)

My worry is that the demotion, even if temporary, might adversely affect his morale. The minor leagues are a whole different world, one which Hutchison presumably thought he had escaped. He's a professional, so he should be prepared to do what is best for his team, but he's not a baseball card.

His demotion also illustrates that everybody thinks that pitching wins are pretty much meaningless. Hutchison is tied for sixth in the AL with 12 wins; a generation ago, they'd have been calling him the Jays' ace. (Or co-ace, since Buehrle also has 12.) Writers would have been praising his ability to "pitch to the score".

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#309295) #

Ack. Buehrle has 13 wins, not 12. Argh.

Jonny German - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#309296) #

Buehrle in fact has 13 wins for the 6th time in the past 7 seasons (his other total was 12). But something will have gone horribly wrong if that bit of trivia still stands at the end of the year.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#309298) #

"...a generation ago, they'd have been calling him the Jays' ace..."

The evolution of public understanding of baseball stats is an interesting trend. We're now seeing OPS and OBP very commonly cited on stadium scoreboards and television broadcasts. Maybe someday we'll even see wRC+ on the scoreboards!

hypobole - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#309299) #

"Hutchison is tied for sixth in the AL with 12 wins; a generation ago, they'd have been calling him the Jays' ace."

Dave, in a bizarre convergence of old school and sabermetrics, Fangraph's WAR is also calling Hutch the Jays ace.

"Writers would have been praising his ability to "pitch to the score"."

WAR is praising his ability to strike batters out while minimizing BB's and HR's. (well, somewhat. Some may argue his FG position as the 45th best qualified SP in MLB may not exactly merit the word "praising"). :)

Lylemcr - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#309301) #

This is demoralizing for Hutch, but I can't imagine devastating. This has nothing to do with his performance.

The conversation is like this. "Hutch you are our guy long term and next year you are in the rotation. I still see you as our potential ace. But.. You are our number 5 guy right now and we have a lot of days off coming up. We want to send you to Buffalo for a couple weeks and get a couple starts so you are fresh. Work on 'fill in blank'. Since we are going to the NL, we are going to call up a couple bench bats. We see you as an important part of the stretch run."

I think it might have been a bigger insult to put him in the pen.

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#309302) #

Buehrle in fact has 13 wins for the 6th time in the past 7 seasons (his other total was 12). But something will have gone horribly wrong if that bit of trivia still stands at the end of the year.

Something went horribly wrong last year - Buehrle was 10-2 on June 2nd, and finished 13-10. He wasn't awful in the second-half, mostly just meh. As for the 12 win season in 2013 - do you remember the 18-inning game that year? Buehrle was the starter, and would have won the game, but Janssen blew the save, and we all got to watch a lot more baseball.

Dave, in a bizarre convergence of old school and sabermetrics, Fangraph's WAR is also calling Hutch the Jays ace.

Baseball Reference has him at -0.8 WAR - not sure which WAR is correct :-). Buehrle is at 2.6, Estrada 2.4, and Dickey 1.6. Price's three starts in a Jays uniform have been worth 1.1 WAR all by themselves.

92-93 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#309303) #

"Fangraph's WAR is also calling Hutch the Jays ace."

*rolls eyes* And that's why a pitcher's fWAR is a really useless statistic.

If I want to evaluate the value a pitcher is providing to his team, I should be looking at his actual results, not what his predictive stats tell me his results should be. I can stick to the predictive stats for that.

bWAR has the Jays pitchers ranked as Buehrle, Estrada, Osuna, Sanchez, and Dickey, which sounds just about right to me.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#309304) #

FIP and xFIP to a better job of predicting future ERA than ERA does. But, as 92/93 points out, FIP, xFIP, WAR, etc. don't always tell the story of actual results. Other than ER vs. RA noise, ERA paints a pretty good picture as to what actually happened, even if it is not sustainable going forward.

cruzin - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#309306) #

"However, he said it was "speculation" by Richard Griffin. I posted the link to Griffin's article simply to make it clear that it wasn't just speculation -- it was factual reporting"

Hmmm...now I wonder if I'm one of the posters being lumped in the previous "scoff" post by CF. The fact I choose to use the term "speculation" instead of "reporting" is much ado about nothing. You'll likely find in my posts that I will put terms that are less definitive until the actual act has taken place. That's simply my writing style.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#309307) #

No, I wasn't referring to you. You reported it first.

hypobole - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#309308) #

That's why one shouldn't use a single stat to tell how good a player is. fWAR has its limitations, but so does bWAR. A pitcher on a poor defensive team , especially one with poor range will be unduly penalized. The opposite with a pitcher behind a superlative defence.

92-93 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#309309) #

I don't view that as a limitation, though. If a pitcher on a poor defensive team isn't getting outs, he isn't providing value to his team, regardless of whose fault that may be.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#309311) #

And in Hutch's case, he's pitching in front of the same D as the rest of the Jays pitchers, who have a lot lower BABIP's, so it's probably more luck than D. Well, and the fact that the others field their position and hold runners on better than Drew does.

As well, while his numbers are all in line (or better) than the rest of the staff (other than BABIP and LOB%) the home/road split is killing him. He has a FIP/xFIP/ERA of 5.42/4.69/9.00 on the road. K/BB% is 15.7 vs. 9.6% (home vs. road).

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#309312) #

It doesn't make sense to ascribe 100% of run prevention while a pitcher is on the mound, including bequeathed runners, to the pitcher (essentially the bWAR approach). It also doesn't make sense to ignore everything other the "fielding-independent" elements of pitching in evaluating what a pitcher contributes (the fWAR approach). Some kind of intermediate position (and where you draw the line is the subject of a very good argument) does make sense. If you take an average of the two measures, for instance, you have the current Jay rotation this year as:

Price- 4.7
Buehrle- 2.3
Estrada- 2.0
Dickey- 1.3
Hutchison- 0.5

I'd suggest that this would be a more accurate description of each of the pitcher's contributions to run prevention than bWAR or fWAR.

christaylor - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#309313) #

From SportsNet, "The Blue Jays drew 140,111 for the three games over the weekend and have a season total of 1,909,361 compared to 1,846,153 after 62 home dates last season"

... which isn't all that impressive when projected out to 81 games as it'd be under the 2013 attendance (according to b-ref). That said, I'm curious where that final attendance number ends up.

Place your bets...

robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#309314) #

My prediction is 2.7 million as the closing regular season attendance figure for the Jays (assuming I am correct in thinking they have 19 home games left).

robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#309315) #

Mike Green. If you have the inclination, could you run those numbers post ASB? That is probably slightly more relevant.

jjdynomite - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#309316) #

Makes sense, considering the big trades were made prior to the 2013 season, and attendance likely dwindled as that disappointing injury-plagued year went on.

For 2015, jaded Jays fans and bandwaggoners started coming out to the 'Dome from around July 29.

Attendance should break 2.5 million easily.

Hodgie - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#309317) #

"who have a lot lower BABIP's, so it's probably more luck than D"

I don't like looking at BABIP and just subscribing it to luck. While there is always some element of luck in BABIP, Hutchison is also responsible for creating much of his bad luck. One of his biggest issues this season has appeared to be fastball command. He does not have the raw stuff to consistently miss middle-middle and not suffer adverse consequences.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#309318) #

Robert, ascertaining fWAR splits for part-seasons is fairly straightforward, but bWAR is challenging because of the small adjustments that BBRef does to RA (particularly to take account of team defence). The easiest thing is to do a home-cooked formula using FIP, RA and innings pitched. I'll have a look at that tomorrow when I have a little more time.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#309319) #

Hodgie, while not all BABIP is luck hits given up by pitchers is pretty random and doesn't seem to have any correlation year over year. Pitchers that lead the league in BABIP one year will be last the next year.

Here's some good information on this, which shows that pitchers have very little control over their rate of hits per ball in play.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878

That being said, Buerhle & Dickie field their position well, so that will help with BABIP, and Dickie is a KB pitcher, which there have been studies that say that KBers can control BABIP better than other pitchers.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#309320) #

Hutch's year by year BABIP.

2012 .291
2013 N/A
2014 .293
2015 .339

I believe league average is about .300, so Drew has been below league average until 2015.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#309322) #

i like the decision to send a starter down now with all the offdays. after a couple of solid mlb starts in a row a couple good AAA starts might have hutch feeling a whole lot better, too.

Hague is interesting, and might be another reason why valencia was so expendable. And carrera never really deserved to go down.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#309324) #

remember it's not just fip that likes hutch, but xfip and siera as well.

statistically speaking he looks like a textbook example of a pitcher that is suffering from a fluke babip season - which is likely due both to his stuff and location and selection being just a tad off, as well as some pure bad luck.

and a reminder to those that love arbitrary endpoint splits.....

...Hutch since May 9: 4.31era, 3.58fip, 3.82xfip (.345babip).

ogator - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#309327) #

I'm not trying to start an argument but I was looking at Fangraphs WAR for third basemen and it had Brett Lawrie at .3 WAR and Danny Valencia at 1.2 and I got to wondering. Would I rather have Valencia or Lawrie playing third base? I think Valencia may be the better choice, at least this year he seems to be. The Blue Jays traded Lawrie and gave away Valencia. There were other players involved, of course, but I think Valencia has greater value, right now.

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#309328) #

I'll be curious to see whether Hutchison's BABIP evens out.

Perhaps he has been unlucky, but one thing I've noticed is that he is one of those pitchers who is either very good or quite bad. He doesn't have many outings in which he doesn't have his best stuff but somehow gets by. This isn't surprising, given that he is so young.

Going by game score:
60+: 9
41-60: 6
40-: 9

This is actually being a bit generous to Hutchison, as he has had three starts with a game score of 41.

Compare this to R.A. Dickey:

60+: 10
40-60: 8
40-: 5

This is a little unfair - six of Dickey's 10 good games have happened since July 8th - but Dickey hasn't been clobbered nearly as often as Hutchison.

One more comment about BABIP: I genuinely think it is a useful statistic (though I'm not sure whether it is predictive), but it sounds exactly like the noise a frog makes.

christaylor - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#309329) #

ogator -- I think all that the difference in WAR between Lawrie and Valencia shows is that WAR isn't a stand-in for player value in the eyes of GMs. Lawrie, unlike Valencia, is a player fans and GMs can still see development potential. Valencia is what he is, player who is or could be a useful 25th man on a good team.

Chuck - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#309330) #

Further to the Hutchison talk...

His OPS splits for bases empty/men on/RISP:
752/822/877 (BABIP: 346/331/371)

The AL as a whole:
696/744/743 (BABIP: 298/303/296)

So not only has BABIP been biting him in the ass, it's doing its nastiest work in RISP situations. That'll mess with a fella's ERA.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#309331) #

A Stroman update. I wasn't bad at Sim Tower and Sim City, but Sim Pitcher would have been tough.

ogator - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#309332) #

At some point "growth potential" becomes a hope and a dream. Lawrie has been healthy this year and has most of a full year and you have to wonder if he deserves to be a regular on a competitive team.
If I can argue out of both sides of my mouth at the same time, at some point the value of many proven players really starts to wane and a team wants to make sure that it isn't holding an expensive long-term contract when it becomes obvious that a player is no longer worth the cash. The Jays have some very interesting decisions to make after the season.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#309333) #

Hutchison's ball in play data for bases empty/RISP reflect an interesting split. There were more line drives in the latter situation, but many fewer balls hit hard and many fewer balls pulled.

On the other hand, RHBs have done most of the damage against Hutchison this year unlike previous years. The damage is across the board- more home runs, more hard hit balls, and more line drives- and a .391 BABIP. The slider has not had its consistent bite. It probably isn't an accident that he had a lot of success against all the LHBs in the Yankee and A lineups.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#309334) #

John Lott reports on Twitter that Carrera gets the start in left and Revere in center-field tonight.

robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#309335) #

John Lott reports on Twitter that Carrera gets the start in left and Revere in center-field tonight.
It's almost as if someone in Blue Jays land is reading Da Box!

Chuck - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#309336) #

I was looking at Fangraphs WAR for third basemen and it had Brett Lawrie at .3 WAR and Danny Valencia at 1.2

FG's model is claiming that Lawrie's defense is putrid, so there's something going on. Either it really is putrid and he's playing hurt (what else would explain the sudden demise at age 25?). Or there is a whackload of noise in the data. Anyone watching him much this year and in a position to weigh in?

Valencia is hitting his heart out this year. If he puts up a 136 OPS+ again next year, I think it will be fair to consider him categorically better than Lawrie. Until then, you've got a 30-year old hitting like crazy and a 25-year old whose defensive metrics are punishing the crap out of him. I'd personally be betting on Lawrie over Valencia in 2016, though I don't think (and never did) that Lawrie was going to be a star. A good player, yes, just not a star.

Hodgie - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#309337) #

"Hodgie, while not all BABIP is luck hits given up by pitchers is pretty random and doesn't seem to have any correlation year over year. Pitchers that lead the league in BABIP one year will be last the next year."

Thanks JB21, I am familiar with the various studies on BABIP and agree at the macro level (and acknowledged luck in my post). However at the micro level I have a hard time believing that all the noise doesn't mask the signal. The knuckleball theories are predicated on an ability to induce poor contact and I have a hard time believing that the reverse could not also be true.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#309338) #

I agree ogator, re: Lawrie. His numbers are eerily consistent each year actually, save from the insane start to his career in 2011.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#309339) #

Saunders has been shut down for the season. Travis is recovering slower than expected. Stroman will throw a couple of sim games with very limited pitch count, and then will pitch for Buffalo in early September. The first two items are bad news, but I think the third one is good news. It's actually a little quicker than I expected for Stroman. If he can pitch well for Buffalo in early September, he could definitely have some value for the Jays at some point later in the month.

jjdynomite - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#309340) #

Seriously, what happened with Lawrie? Back in the halcyon days of 2012 wasn't he being posited as one of the Big Position Player 3 with Trout and Harper? How ridiculous that seems now in retrospect.

I know the O.co Coliseum is a pitcher's park, but as aforementioned his stats aren't any worse (or better) than his latter years in Toronto.

Is it just the case that pitchers figured him out after his explosive call-up in 2011 and he was too busy getting tattoos and starring in dry cleaning commercials to adjust?

Wow, what a heist by AA over Beane.

China fan - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#309341) #

As for Kevin Pillar: he leads the majors with 118 games played this season, which means he has appeared in 118 of the team's 119 games so far. I don't think Gibbons needed the advice of anyone in Batters Box to know that Pillar had to get a rest day soon. But with the day off today and the day off yesterday, and with the Jays having two more off-days in the next week, he should be good to go.

He's certainly having a bad August offensively. Is that due to fatigue? Maybe, but we don't really know. I don't think fatigue has affected his defence, so I'm not sure why it would affect only his hitting. More likely he is regressing as expected from an exceptionally good June and July.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#309342) #

Or, Lawrie happened to have a hot streak happen after being called up which raised expectations to a level that he simply couldn't reach consistently. Maybe he's just not that good of a hitter. Hitting MLB pitching is not easy.

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#309343) #

I don't think Gibbons needed the advice of anyone in Batters Box to know that Pillar had to get a rest day soon.

CF, always in attack mode.

electric carrot - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#309344) #

Can we call a moratorium on pettiness across the board? How about this:

Never get personal when you disagree with someone.

That will solve it and make this site much less boring to read.

robertdudek - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#309345) #

The Yankees, with their extremely reckless 7-man bullpen, were obviously tempting fate.

Last night their emergency starting pitcher, Bryan Mitchell, was hit in the face and couldn't get through 2 innings. The Yankees, with only 6 relievers available, had to work hard - the game even went into extra innings.

Today they placed Mitchell on the concussion DL, farmed their 7th reliever, and recalled two relievers to bring themselves back up to 7 relievers for tonight (including redoubtable long man Chris Capuano).

Before anyone gets too huffy, this is merely an interesting datapoint.

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#309346) #

Seriously, what happened with Lawrie? Back in the halcyon days of 2012 wasn't he being posited as one of the Big Position Player 3 with Trout and Harper? How ridiculous that seems now in retrospect.

Two things, I think. When he first came up, pitchers didn't know his weaknesses, so they just challenged him with their best fastballs. He could hit those. After that, they figured him out. (This sort of thing happens a lot: Josh Phelps and Jose Cruz Jr., among others, had honeymoon periods when they came up.) His numbers have been fairly consistent over the last three years, which suggests that this is what you're going to get. The other thing is Oakland, which is not a good place to hit: he's batting .236 at home and .291 on the road, and 7 of his 11 home runs have been hit away from home.

John Lott reports on Twitter that Carrera gets the start in left and Revere in center-field tonight.

Revere is used to playing center field in Philadelphia: he had 42 games there this year, so he'll know his way around the ballpark. :-)

JB21 - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#309347) #

Specifically with Buffalo being so close to Toronto, and with quite a few RP's having options.

Dave Till - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#309348) #

Yankees, with their extremely reckless 7-man bullpen, were obviously tempting fate.

I suspect that you are right about the 8-man bullpen being too many pitchers. But I still remember Jim Fregosi's poor bullpen management - he used to hook his starters quickly in consecutive games, as I recall, and then got burned by extra innings. He had to basically choose which reliever(s) he was going to overwork and force to the DL. So I tend to have an irrational fondness for the idea an emergency pitcher or two. I am also perhaps underrating the value of a good bench, as the Jays really haven't had one for a long time.

Today they placed Mitchell on the concussion DL, farmed their 7th reliever, and recalled two relievers to bring themselves back up to 7 relievers for tonight

One reason why teams have never lobbied to raise the roster beyond 25 players, I would guess, is because they are using their AAA clubs as taxi squads more than ever before. Is this true, or am I just paying more attention now?

hypobole - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#309349) #

Yankees would have been reckless with a 6 man pen.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#309353) #

Brett Lawrie

2011 (21): 171pa, 9.4bb%/18.1k%, .318babip/.293avg, .287iso/7.5spd, 157wrc+, 13.3uzr/150, 9.9war/650
2012 (22): 536pa, 6.2bb%/16.0k%, .311babip/.273avg, .132iso/5.2spd, 97wrc+, 5.6uzr/150, 2.8war/650
2013 (23): 442pa, 6.8bb%/15.4k%, .280babip/.254avg, .143iso/4.4spd, 94wrc+, -0.1uzr/150, 2.1war/650
2014 (24): 282pa, 5.7bb%/17.4k%, .260babip/.247avg, .174iso/4.4spd, 102wrc+, 14.9uzr/150, 4.2war/650
2015 (25): 441pa, 4.1bb%/24.0k%, .328babip/.263avg, .135iso/3.9spd, 95wrc+, -16.9uzr/150, 0.4uzr/650

The thing about Lawrie's first year is there was nothing indicating any fluke there. his plate discipline numbers were very good, his babip was sustainable, he had legit speed and athleticism, and even his surprising power was supported by his breakout AAA numbers that year and not all that surprising from a 21yr old with his muscle. and all that performance supported by a gorgeous five tool scouting report.

but all that wagging in his swing and all the injuries have probably been a part of what looks like a steady decline in every area of performance. aside from a tiny sample last year for the jays, you can see a steady decline every year in every area - speed, power, contact, plate discipline, and fielding. All these have steadily declined to poor across the board so much so that even his slightly below average 95wrc+ this year looks lucky based on an unsustainable babip. he's young enough to turn it around but right now he looks like a bad player across the board.

AA looks smart for using his small sample bounceback performamce last year to sell high on, at least at this point.

jjdynomite - Tuesday, August 18 2015 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#309368) #

Thanks for the insights on Lawrie's decline (or never truly was), Bauxites JB21, Dave Till and uglyone.

And after tonight's game with Josh conquering yet again like his Old Testament namesake I almost feel sorry for Beane. Almost. Nice to see so many Jays fans in the stands, too.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 19 2015 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#309430) #

Lawrie's career makes a lot more sense if you remove 2011 - his 2009 & 2010 seasons showed a solid all-around skillset, but nothing really exceptional. I don't know what happened in 2011 - I'd blame it on Vegas, but he continued mashing in Toronto - but whatever it was, he hasn't been able to rediscover it.

He reminds me a bit of Alex Gonzalez - a good looking prospect in the minors who never developed at all in the majors and was almost exactly the same hitter at 22 as he was at 32.

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