Damn, Price looks good in Jays blue.

It's time to make a choice in who is the most important Catcher on this team. If it's as it should be, then do everything possible to make Russell Martin's job easier. It should mean keeping Josh Thole as Dickey's catcher from this point forward. Having no Bench and three Catchers is ridiculous, so Navarro must go. He doesn't hit well enough in the DH position to warrant keeping Smoak away from First Base.

Seconded!

ok blue jays let's play ball

One would hope that Thole would only be up for that one game before being sent down. I presume he will be back in September as well when the rosters expand.

Goins has been looking better at the plate lately. He crushed that ball.

Looking ahead, I like that Dickey is pitching to start the Yankees series with Price following him. Dickey is good against the Yankees, and maybe Price can take advantage of that "Dickey Effect." It's hard to imagine any two pitchers being much different than those two.

That's another consequence of Dickey going yesterday: Estrada no longer gets to follow Dickey. Hopefully with the off days they can realign that.   I don't think Price needs the 'post Dickey effect'.

He might not need it but it can't hurt - he's great but his ERA still ain't 0 (particularly against those Yankees). I don't think Estrada needs Dickey to be effective either.

i mean is this amazing or is this amazing?

It's unreal. Championship-calibre team. And they're missing Saunders, Stroman and Travis.

It's amazing. That being said, can we get a couple more runs?

A's claim Valencia, looks like we'll see him next week. Assuming he'll get the start vs. Price, haha.

Weren't we promised another shoe to drop with the Valencia DFA? Now that A's claimed V, is there a trade coming for another infielder?

Thx guys!

Price is coming back out for the 8th? This can't be right.

Perfect time to get Lowe into a lower leverage situation IMO.

I don't mind bringing him out for the 8th, but thats if he was at 95 pitches, not at 11+. Seems a bit silly to bring him out since he's probably going to come close to 125 now.

Finishes with 119 pitches, 11 K's.

When was the last 11 K pitching line for the Jays? Stroman last year?

Nope. Buerhle. He got 11 and 10 last year in a couple games . I think the most Stroman got was like 8. Hutchison had an 11 and 2 10s last year too.

It appears it was Hutch in Sept 2014, Stro has never had more than 8.

Buehrle had 11 in his first start in 2014 and 10 in his last start in 2014. Never more than 6 in between. #baseball

Agree re not using Price in the 8th, but what a performance!

Re Estrada post Dickey vs not, I analyzed his starts this year. He followed Dickey every time, but Dickey often pitched the last game of a series, so Estrada was facing a new team the next day.
Post Dickey, 9 starts, 51.2 IP, 49H, 5ER, 14BB, 40SO, 1.21 WHIP, ERA 3.48
Not Post Dickey, 7 starts, 42.1 IP, 39H, 5ER, 13BB, 30SO, 1.23 WHIP, ERA 4.25
I think WHIP is a better measure, so you're right, eudaimon, no real difference in this small-medium sample size, so Estrada should be fine.

By the way, any better sites to get this kind of data? I just got it off MLB and dumped it into a spreadsheet, and had to do a few spreadsheet formulas to analyze it.

Price just said "that was hands down the best atmosphere I've ever pitched in".

Buerhle always goes deep in games, so when his stuff is on he'll pick up a double digit K game every once in a while. Hutch just has some nasty stuff when on. I'm surprised Stroman's numbers were low, but probably because of not going too deep in games.

Actually in searching I found a better one from last year. Happ struck out 12 vs Baltimore in a 2-1 loss.

.......Any chance the Jays can keep this guy?

Sure, but there is 0 chance he signs in the exclusive window we have. He's going to go to the best bid available I'm sure. The question is is he worth 200 million dollars?

Post Dickey, 9 starts, 51.2 IP, 49H, 5ER, 14BB, 40SO, 1.21 WHIP, ERA 3.48
Not Post Dickey, 7 starts, 42.1 IP, 39H, 5ER, 13BB, 30SO, 1.23 WHIP, ERA 4.25
I think WHIP is a better measure, so you're right, eudaimon, no real difference in this small-medium sample size, so Estrada should be fine.

Why would following Dickey affect the number of walks? Hits and swinging strikes, I get it, but walks?

Actually I can see him signing if he is 100% honest about the atmosphere and enjoying his time here so far.  Players want to win and they want to have fun.  If you are a top flight pitcher then playing in front of this offense with the team winning (meaning packed stadiums) then Toronto is where you want to be.  So if the Jays make a 'realistic' offer (ie: tons of money, tons of years) then he might sign early just to make life easier for himself.  It all depends on what he wants.

Depends on the length and the contract clauses. Players who sign with Toronto don't care about No Trade clauses, right?
Maybe and opt out clause?

If he really enjoys the honeymoon here, Toronto might get a small discount over other places. Nothing is less sure though. He's from Tennessee and I'm not aware that he has roots in an MLB city.

Even if he loves the city I don't see why his agent just has him wait 3 days to see what other offers are out there. I think the Jays could get him signed in that window by overpaying, but I don't see that as something AA or Rodgers would do.

It is so good to see the Skydome full again.

Remember AA talking in the offseason that FA pitchers who were looking for "x" amount of $ wanted "x plus" to sign here? That may no longer be in most cases, but we will still have pony up the "x". Ay, there's the rub.

It is so good to see the Skydome full again.

Not only that, how about Sportsnet giving baseball the hockey treatment with the extended post-game show

Price said today was the best atmosphere he has every played in.

Price has made ten play-off appearances, with five starts. Seven of his play-off appearances have been at The Trop. He pitched one play-off game in Philly, one in Boston, and one in Detroit. He also started a 2013 wild card tie breaker in Arlington. Not to mention countless late season games in New York and Boston during pennant races.

Pretty incredible that he called an August the 3rd Monday afternoon game the best atmosphere he has ever pitched in.

Pretty incredible that he called an August the 3rd Monday afternoon game the best atmosphere he has ever pitched in.

It's almost like he knows the right things to say :)

It could have something to do with his team-mates as well. I'm sure he was given a warm welcome. I could see him signing with us for a small discount, especially if the team does well down the stretch...

Somebody on another thread recently mentioned that it was nice to see the way this community has held together over the years with so many of the original posters lasting 10 years or longer.

I second that thought as someone who hasn't been a regular participant since May of 2005 (The days when Chad Gaudin was reported to have 'electric stuff' and we were all excited to see what he could do for the Jays!).

Despite having been to more ballgames in Montréal than Toronto in the last seven years, I've still been following the team pretty closely. For some reason the Tulowitzki trade made me wonder if The Box was still around and after one mistaken attempt at the URL, I found the place.

It really hasn't changed (apart from the Jays logo) and that's a great thing. I hope you've all enjoyed the last week and are ready for a memorable and exciting stretch drive.

Offer Price three years and $100.0 Million, with a player option package of two years and $65.0 Million, and a player option package of two years and $65.0 Million. At any time after three years, or then after two years, he can opt out for more money or stay with the team.

Option two, offer him a signed contract with the Term and the Dollar Value blank. Either should work, just ask him how many Cy Youngs does he want to win.

As great as Price is coming off his first start here, you don't want to offer a pitcher (any pitcher) not named Clemens or Randy Johnson 200 million over 8+ years. It is just not going to work out well since at best case you get a Buerhle situation and worst case you get something like Verlander where the contract is going to be horrible a few years in. Pitchers are so volatile that you can't trust they'll be around and healthy five years down the line, not to mention the length of contract Price will want. It's surprising the amount of posts I read of people thinking we should be like the Yankees.

How are we going to afford a team with the salaries we're going to pay Donaldson, Martin, Tulowitzki, now Price and so on. Are we just going to tell Bautista and EE to walk? We don't have the payroll to make a team viable where we pay 5 players over 100 million dollars total.

I agree. I have a hard time offering Price a long contract.

Even Felix's contract is going to be a bad contract in the end.

Mind you, I would offer Buerhle a 3 year contract. He seems to be getting better with age.

Verlander 3 years ago was a considerably better pitcher than Price is now. He had come off a 4 year stretch of averaging nearly 7 wins per season. Tigers signed him to 8 years, 180 million. Now 2 years later he is basically replacement value or below and the Tigers are stuck with paying him til 2019, hamstringing their payroll for years to come.

AA has made some great deals. I like the Martin deal and the Bautista and EE deals were masterful. But no way does he make a long term contract with Price, unless Price and his agent gives him a big discount. He's a great pitcher and cool guy, but enjoy his next 11 starts here (and hopefully some playoff ones too!) since those will be his last starts here. It just makes no sense in today's day and age to give 30 year old pitchers big contracts for long terms. It has never worked out well for the signing team. Let the Yankees or Dodgers overcommit like that. They have the payroll to do it and we'll be happy a few years down the line when their payrolls are bogged down by bad contracts.

Let's not worry about it too much. The team is set for 2015 (more or less), let's enjoy the ride.

The Blue Jays are the richest team in baseball. They are just too cheap to take a gamble like that.

Their owners are the richest sure, since its a giant corporation. Revenue though hardly? YES network that the Yankees has makes the Yankees roll in cash. Toronto by Forbes ranking is 22nd in MLB for revenue. Rodgers is not going to run this team on a deficit so us fans can feel happy. Their payroll is already top 10 in baseball and has been for a couple years. I don't think you can complain that Rodgers isn't supporting the team. They've been more than generous in allowing AA to raise team payroll well beyond the point where the revenue numbers support it.

Let's not worry about it too much. The team is set for 2015 (more or less), let's enjoy the ride

Fully agree with this point of view. We've been fretting about the team's present and future for so many years now. For the rest of this year at least, the team is finally good -- extremely good. Let's savour every moment, and worry about 2016 after the WS.

I don't agree with this notion. The Blue Jays have never attributed television revenue (Blue Jay Broadcasts) to the Jays. IF Rogers/Sportsnet ACTUALLY would debit the Blue Jays accounting ledger for revenue generated into the team via broadcasting revenue & ad sales, they would not be only ranked 22 in the MLB. They would be top 3. Top 5 at worst. Sportsnet has a greater coverage than the YESnetwork. Quoting wikipdeia, "In 2014, the YES Network announced an average 223,000 households in Yankees game broadcasts." Sportsnet, according to wikipedia, covers 8.2M homes in Canada for games. The MLB TV generates roughly $100M rights fees split amongst the teams. The Phillies signed a $5 BILLION 25 year contract with their local Sportsnet Provider. These figures are not calculated in revenue earnings for the Jays.

Jays were not a bottom 10 revenue team, since they weren't part of the Competitive Balance Pool.

No kidding. MLB knows what's really up since they're phasing the Jays out of getting revenue sharing and we don't get competitive balance picks.

On the other hand, there is not much chance the Jays are a top 3 or even top 5 revenue team. Canada is a huge market, but how many are baseball fans? Toronto is one of the 5 largest markets in MLB, but the Jays are 20th in attendance, trailing losing teams in megalopoli like Cincinnati and Milwaukee.

How much do sponsors pay for advertising? Not as much as some believe, is my guess.

Yeah looking into it more the Jays seem to be in the high teens for revenue, which leaves them just out of revenue sharing. They are certainly not bottom ten in market size, so they're not qualifying there either. Anyway you can't just look at sportsnet being nationwide and assume because of if the Jays make more money than the Yankees or Red Sox or Dodgers. Maybe we're better than mid teens, but our payroll is already tenth. I don't think it is fair to accuse them of being cheap anymore, not after they've gone in for AA's deals.

price starts at 7yrs x $30m.

and of course we should. Price is the perfect horse to bet on.

Finch , to your point, the TBJ ownership has always played lowball with the Regional Tv Revenue. In 2012 the Jays indicated that their Regional Tv in USD was 36 Million. Please note the owners pool 34% of their regional contracts.
Yankees and Dodgers commenced their amount at a fixed opening price with escalator clauses. In 2013 the teams each received $17-18 Million dollars. This will increase due to the annual escalator clauses for about 7 teams in their contract.
Additionally, there were four new teams Colorado, Arizona ($90 Million per annum), St Louis and Cincinnati who have just signed new contracts doubling to tripling their regional contracts that are higher than the Rogers Contract.
I have been pushing that the Jays plus other teams receive four revenue streams.
MLB National Contract- $50 Million USD per annum
Regional TV pooled share- $18 Million USD with projected increases of 3 Million per annum
MLB Licensing and Royalty Fees- $ 7 Million USD
Share of the Expos Sales Trust- $7 Million USD per annum
MLB Annuity Fund- $5 Million USD
That means 87 Million USD issued to each team. Add what the Rogers pay as their annual Regional TV excluding advertising revenues which other teams now have a share in. The Jays would have around $115 Millon USD before they open the gates.
They could offer 7/210 Million or a contract commencing at $25 Million a year with $2 Million Escalators to 35 Million after year 6 and a $30 Million for the 7th Year. This is a Scherzer or Kershaw type contract.
Note that the $2 Million escalator would be covered by the REGIONAL Pool Sharing projected annual increases.
David resides in a no state tax of Tennessee. His income tax rate will be cheaper than California and New York. His endorsements maybe higher in the USA, however when he is making $30 Million per annum, I dont think he will be complaining.
He could buy a town in Tennessee for what he is making per annum.
i CONCLUDE MY RANT.

price starts at 7yrs x $30m.

and of course we should. Price is the perfect horse to bet on.
Everyone said that about Verlander too. And a bunch of others.

The problem is, great pitchers are great, until they throw the pitch that blows their arm out and then they're not.

"The problem is, great pitchers are great, until they throw the pitch that blows their arm out and then they're not."

So very true, as much as sometimes I dislike the 5 year rule at times. Overall it probably does more good than harm. Imagine if Ricky's contract exceed the 5 year limit, we'd be feeling drag of that contract in future years.

With pitchers you just never know, when they hit that point, it can go downhill in a hurry. In an instant Doc went from perennial Cy Young contender to no longer an option. Luckily for the Phils, he didn't sign one of those 7 year extended contracts prior to his injury.

Completely agree with bluejayway. You don't pay thirty million a year for a guy entering decline. Especially not for a pitcher entering decline. Basically almost all of the big money starting pitching contracts have ended up poorly. Pitchers have mileage on those arms and once it goes most unlike Buerhle can't adapt to losing their velocity. Signing a Price might be okay for the first three years but after the contract would tie up Torontos payroll for years. Now a bat I don't mind since they age better. But not a sp.

Listening to a Tiger Broadcast last year during a Verlander Start, they were discussing his loss of velocity on his fastball. They said he would have great difficulty adjusting because he's never learned how to pitch using all his pitches. And why would he when his fastball was easily and consistently over 96 from pitch one to pitch last. It appears no one thought it was important.

Pitchers like Price are superior to people with just great stuff. Both are great Pitchers, but when the stuff goes away being a great Pitcher with all your pitches triumphs after all. Price will a great Pitcher for a long time, sort of a much better Mark Buehrle with a better fastball. He's just another top Left-hander destined for a long career.

yes, i would assume the last 3yrs of the deal were a write off.

and i'd still do it.

Interesting tidbits in Blair's latest column, including:

- The Jays are planning to use Thole to catch RA because Martin is getting beat up catching the knuckler

- Billy Beane is a candidate to replace Beeston as president after the season

- The Jays were serious bidders for Zobrist at the deadline

The comparisons are Kershaw who is younger and Scherzer who was the same age. Now I want to make a small point the 7/210 of Scherzer is more realistic comparison.
D.C. is comparable, all I would find out what is the marginal tax rate of DC including the county and city tax. Than you can determine what the difference of the comparable net income earnings.
Noted that Florida and Tennessee are non income state taxes nor county taxes. From there you may compare.
If fans keep showing up to see the best fantasy team east of LA Dodgers, this team could comfortably pay Price, Stroman, Hutchison, Dickey and Estrada. Approx. $14 Million more than this years pitching staff. You save $2 Million on Tulo versus Reyes and $7 Million dollars for Romero and $ 2 Million on Itzuris. Josh Donaldson's pay raise is covered by Navarro Salary.
Choose between keeping Saunders and Revere , the other being traded with EE for a quality starting Pitcher. San Diego requires a 1st Baseman and an Outfielder who can play CF. Washington requires a 1st Baseman and someone to replace Werth.
$135 Million Max unless you want to bring back both Buerhle and Dickey/Thole. Which I rather receive some prospects in return or a high compensation pick.

I wade into this debate with great reluctance, but living in Calgary (which I think in this case is reasonably reflective of the country as a whole) I can tell you one thing: the Blue Jays have access to an enormous national market, but one that they can exploit effectively only when they have a contending team. There is a latent baseball fan base across Canada, but it lies dormant much of the time. The amount of ink that the Calgary Herald devotes to the Jays (and where that ink is placed) is directly related to where they sit in the standings; in both 2013 and 2014 they got a lot of press in spring training and by the middle of the season after falling out of contention they were relegated to the back pages, with coverage limited strictly to the scores, as befits a middling, geographically distant team. But in the last week, there has been a lot of buzz about this team, and you can see even just this weekend many more Blue Jay hats and jerseys around. The tall foreheads at Rogers can crunch the numbers and decide whether the additional spend is worth it, but it is clear to me that there is a big fan base ready to be captivated by the Jays, for as long as the Jays are a significant MLB team. Just like they have been able to draw many extra fans to Rogers Centre in the last week, I don't doubt their ability to draw many extra viewers, sell more paraphernalia, etc outside of Toronto when playing well, because there is a good sized casual fan base that is convertible to an engaged fan base, when the product is worth getting excited about.

Price might get $250m this off-season - maybe more. The Jays are going to get priced out. It doesn't matter. Enjoy the special thing that is happening *right now* and don't worry about next year (not yet, anyway).

I wonder how well Price would pitch if he loses two or three miles per hour off his fastball. His cutter and change look like pitches that play off his big fastball, I don't know if they would be as effective if he was throwing 91.

I am not saying he would be a failure, he just might not be worth $30M per season.

He also said Aldord was in the Price trade.

Who said Alford is in the Price Trade.

What do you think of trading EE and Revere next season for Kimbrel, the best reliever in baseball, and stretch Osuna into a Starting Pitching.
That way you have Price, Stroman, Dickey, Hutchison and Osuna. Than you have a closer locked up for three years.

If you're going granular on the Scherzer contract as a comp, you have to remember two things about it that make it unique. First, there was a $50M signing bonus payable over multiple years, which avoids DC's income tax. Second, there's a metric fornicated tonne of deferred money in it. Both of those factors really gum up the works when calculating present value.

Anyone dumb enough to pay Price $250 mil guaranteed can enjoy the nightmare contract in a few years. Only 3 contracts have been signed for that much and 2 of them were for A-Rod and both times the team doing it regretted it.  The 3rd is Giancarlo Stanton who might never get the full amount from Miami due to out clauses. Miguel Cabrera also has a $248 locked in deal but that is looking bad now (officially starts next year).  Also over $225 mil are Pujols (Angels regret it - his 4 worst years OPS+ wise are all for the Angels), Cano (has a 100 OPS+ this year with 8 more years on the deal), Votto (164 OPS+ this year but still a deal that no one else wants as he is 31 now and will make $20 to 25 a year until he is 39). 

Pitchers with highest average annual value are $30+ mil - Kershaw, Scherzer; $25 to 29 mil Lester, Verlander, King Felix; $20-24 Greinke, Sabathia, Hamels, Lee, Sabathia again, Santana, Tanaka, Cain, Porcello, Lincecum, and good ol' Halladay on his final contract.

Does Price land in that perpetual Cy contender like the top guys?  Maybe. BRWAR has him over 3 only 3 times, 3 more in the high 2's.lifetime 26.6 WAR.  Fangraphs has him worth $30+ mil each of the last 4 years and well on pace for it again this year.  Over 3 fWAR 5 times and likely this year too.

If the Jays could get him to sign for 5 at $30 per ($150 mil) which is doubtful it'd be a reasonable risk.  I don't see the Jays going past that so sadly unless Price really falls in love with Toronto this will be like the David Cone 1992 deal - fun and hopefully good for a WS run.  But that is it.

Thank you John for that post of sanity. I don't see Price accepting a five year deal when the is probably a 7-8 year deal out there. What's so odd about this is why people think we're the Yankees. There is no sign that Rodgers is willing to commit to that level of salary.

I always thought this aquisition was up whether or not Price pitches in the wildcard game and gets us back into some meaningful baseball. I do not think Rogers will pony up to sign him long term.

However the only way I can see this deal working is putting an opt out clause after 3 years like Stanton, Grenike, Sabathia...Price at three years with potential for 7 is better than price for 7.

1. I want the Jays to commit Ace money to an ace for the next 5yrs of the Donaldson/Tulo window. We have nice young cheap arms underneath, we have that money coming off the payroll in dickey and buehrle this year, and we our core guys are either controllable or, in Joey and EE's case, likely re-signable for an affordable amount due to age.

2. If the jays are stuck with 2-3yrs of dead money when rebuilding after that window shuts, it doesn't really matter. Especially since with our roster there likely won't be any other anchor contracts in that period.

3. I don't think there a safer bet than David Price over the next 5yrs. Utterly consistently elite, never had an off year or a major injury, and a proven inning eating studhorse in every single year of his career. He's got some of the cleanest low-effort mechanics in baseball, and is also a physical beast that keeps himself in tiptop shape. Mentally and competitively, of course, he's amongst the best.

I don't think the players, or management for that matter, are aiming for the wild card, first or second. They have the Yankees in their sights, and with so many games left against New York, I think winning the division is entirely possible. If the games against the Royals had a playoff atmosphere ( and they did ), then I can't wait until the Jays face the Bronx Bombers.As for Price, I definitely want him back, but only for 5 years or less. He gives the team what they've desperately needed for several years, a true ace at the top of the rotation.

O's up 3-0 in the 1st in Oakland. Chris Davis just hit a 3 run bomb.

if you want price - or any ace - you have to put hopes of a 5yr deal aside. that is not going to happen.

either you want an ace and take the risk, or you don't.

angels down 3-0 in the 1st.

Problem is it's a risk that rarely works out. Price is good but he's no Verlander, Felix or Kershaw. There have been a lot of big money contracts for pitchers lately, and Price is more likely to be a Verlander, Santana, Sabathia, Cain or Tanaka than Felix. I am curious how much he'll get though. If they offer him Felixs contract and he accepts I might be okay with that, although I still think it would end badly (7/175)

I think he has much less risk of busting than any of those guys, both in yerms of performance and health.

most of those guys gave their teams a few great years anyways.

Wait, is he no Verlander or likely a Verlander?

Kidding...

Sure, 7 at $175 total would be nice but not going to happen.  5/$150 is more likely as in my odds of winning the 6/49 are better than odds of winning LottoMax.  For now lets just enjoy having a killer rotation, pen, and offense.

Yup the number I care about most from him right now is 4, as in going 4-0 against the Yankees down the stretch.

I don't want to be able to afford David Price, coming off a stellar season, leading his team to a World Series victory.

Personally, I would love to be able to afford David Price coming off a Cy Young age 29 season that lead his team to the world series. As a consolation prize, I would like the Blue Jays to be able to afford David Price after said season.

Billy Beane is a candidate to replace Beeston as president after the season

Can someone remind me what Beeston does again?

Angels came back to win, so we gained ground on the Yankees & Twins today, and held on with the O's and Angels.

3 way tie for the second WC with the Angels 2 games ahead of Us/Twins/Angels.

Us/O's are 5.5 back of the Yanks, who open up a series with the Red Sox tomorrow.

I'm not a fan of pushing Beeston out, but I am a fan of getting Billy Beane. I also want to keep AA, but BB is good, not sure how well AA and BB would split roles. They obviously get along well enough to trade with one another. While we are wistcasting, if BB is coming, maybe we could convince him on his way out the door to trade the waiver claim for Valencia + Navarro to the A's in exchange for Sonny Gray to the Jays? Would make his presidency easier! :)

Beane has an ownership stake in the As. I think it's extremely unlikely that he comes here after the season.

It's a pretty small interest. He could sell or place it in a trust. Didn't Selig place his Brewers ownership into a trust?

I'm not sure where these rumours are coming from, but I don't see why ownership would preclude geniune interest in coming here. It's a natural progression for many GM's to move onto a President role.

Sabathia gave the Yankees 5 good years. Price on a 5-year contract would be team friendly, no matter the amount.
The problem is those 7+ years back loaded contracts. Really, it's a no-brainer. You sign the guy for 7 years and trade him after 2 or 3 for a boat of prospects.

Kudos to Sandy Alderson and the New York Mets - despite excessive whining from the New York media and some fans, Alderson has kept that sublime young pitching and the Mets are poised for an extended run even if they don't make it this year - Harvey, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Wheeler, Familia - WOW!! - the Nationals may have missed their window.

I hate it when the Yanks and Red Sox play, because then one of them has to win.

Go Sawx.  Ugh.

I was at the game yesterday.  The Twins played pretty poor fundamental baseball.  On Donaldson's pop double in the first inning, neither Plouffe nor Dozier put in a good effort to chase it down the line.  Plouffe's failure to tag up at third on the blooper behind second base would probably also have driven Molitor crazy.  Rosario's throw to the plate on Edwin's single was so bad that I'm sure Molitor's blood pressure spiked on that occasion too.

By contrast, the Blue Jays were solid from start to finish.  These are theoretically the "dog days of August", but as the song goes, the dog days are over.  I'd rather they played that than "Come on Eileen" on the organ.  It doesn't work.

Yeah, that rumour seems a bit... out there. I mean, I'd love it to happen, and a lot of crazy things have already happened this year, but I'm still filing Beane as Team Prez under 'I'll believe it when I see it.'

The BB rumor is odd, but odd enough to be plausible. I wonder if it is just stale, that is was in play last winter until the Jays backed off because of that other fiasco.

i could see beane taking over the disaster in boston but not anything else.

Plouffe had no chance to score if the pop up was caught (as it was) so his only play was to go halfway, so he wouldn't be forced out if it dropped in.

Also, whoever is spelling "Rodgers" - there's no D, please stop inserting one.

"Plouffe's failure to tag up at third on the blooper behind second base would probably also have driven Molitor crazy."

Nope, that was perfect base-running. If that ball falls and you are on the base to tag up, you don't score if the CF fields it cleanly.

And that's what happens when you open a thread and respond an hour later after reading it without clicking refresh. A coke to James.

".....maybe we could convince him on his way out the door to trade the waiver claim for Valencia + Navarro to the A's in exchange for Sonny Gray to the Jays?...."

Sonny Gray is very unlikely, but I do wonder if AA is prepping for another trade with Oakland.  He could have pulled back Valencia from waivers and tried to negotiate a deal, perhaps for a minor prospect, but instead he let him go for nothing.  Sometimes that's a "goodwill" transaction in exchange for future considerations in the next deal.  The Jays might also have to dump Navarro to make room for Thole.  (The Jeff Blair column was pretty convincing about the potential injury risk to Martin if he continues to catch Dickey.)  Navarro might not make sense for Oakland, but he might have to go somewhere. 

More moves are also pending.  The Jays won't keep 8 pitchers in the bullpen indefinitely, so Schultz or Loup will probably be demoted to make room for another hitter -- perhaps Pompey.  The recent hitting woes of Kevin Pillar are likely connected to over-work.  He needs to spend more time on the bench, just to give him an occasional breather.  But who replaces him in CF?  Pompey seems the most likely.  Revere is the other possibility (he has 3,300 career innings as a CF) but he's a downgrade from Pillar or Pompey in CF, so it's more logical to promote Pompey within the next week or two.  The Jays probably just want Pompey to get as much full-time playing time as possible in Buffalo, since he won't be a full-time player in Toronto.  But the Buffalo season ends within a few weeks, so it makes sense to promote Pompey in the next week or two.

Since the Jays put Valencia on outright waivers rather than revocable waivers, he couldn't be pulled back and there was no need for a trade - lowest team claiming him, gets him.

My understanding is that Valencia was not placed on outright waivers.  He was placed on "trade assignment waivers" -- which are revocable, and which gave the Jays a bit of leverage if they wanted to negotiate a deal.  My source on this:  http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/8/1/9084409/why-was-danny-valencia-dfaed

(Trade assignment waivers are part of the DFA process and aren't the same as the revocable waivers where many players are briefly placed in August.)

Kudos to Sandy Alderson and the New York Mets - despite excessive whining from the New York media and some fans, Alderson has kept that sublime young pitching and the Mets are poised for an extended run even if they don't make it this year - Harvey, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, Wheeler, Familia - WOW!! - the Nationals may have missed their window.

The Mets have effectively executed the dream I'd had for the Jays. Kudos to them. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go all in with respect to free agency now that they have a young, strong and controllable pitching core. Oh well, at least the next 2 (hopefully 3) months will be enjoyable ...

According to that same analysis of the waiver process to which I linked, the Jays could have put Valencia on "outright waivers" instead of "trade assignment waivers."  If they had put him on outright waivers, the process is league-agnostic, and several NL teams would have had priority over Oakland, since they have worse records than Oakland.  And it's difficult to imagine that those NL teams (Colorado, Miami, the Phillies, Milwaukee) would all have passed up the chance at getting Valencia for free.  So this suggests to me that Valencia indeed wasn't placed on outright waivers.

Nobody has mentioned the fact that the Jays are tied for the wildcard!

The Skydome (It is still the Skydome to me, calling it Rogers center irks me) was rocking. Chanting MVP for Donaldson and Tulo. It is so good to see it full again.

I'm getting alarmed about our 2016 starting rotation. (Don't you all get too concerned - back this time of year in 1957 I was also quite alarmed that my Tiger Cats might not win the Grey Cup - but in the end they did.)

Next year - as locks - I see Stroman and... Lets see, um, er, ah...

Of course, Hutchison, hopefully he can build off his great work here in 2015, hopefully he can...

Sanchez, why didn't I remember him! WOW - just think we'll have the first ever starter in MLB history to pitch 200 innings with 200 walks, um, er, ah...

Osuna! Osuna, the guy I think is the best starting prospect on the Jays (I thought - and still do - he will end up being a better starter than Norris and or Hoffman), so he's on tap for 200 innings in 2016, right? OK, not 200, how about, 150? 125? 10 starts? OK, but man, we get him stretched out in 16 and by 17 we've got ourselves an Ace to pair with Stroman! By 2017...

Buehrle. The iron man. The god in the chubby body. The guy we NEED in 2016 more than any other of our non-Price pitchers from our (healthy) 2015 staff. However, can we get him? Do we have a choice? Does he give a s*it what we want? Will he retire, or go home to someplace that will love his pit bulls as much as they love him? IF - we could get him resigned - that move would go a long way to soothe my troubled brow...

Dickey: Dickey Aptil/May or Dickey June/August? Why? 'Cause there is one really bid difference. IF - Dickey and Stroman are the only two standing - it looks like we'll have to gamble on his option. IF - he continues to throw next year like he is NOW - that will be a good move. I'd gamble on the move. Do we have a choice?

Estrada. Free agent after the year's up. On a Championship team he'd be a passable #5. Would he stay here for #5 money? Would someone overpay him too much for us to keep him? How high would we go to keep him?

One guy left, and only one question about him: Is the Price right? The REAL question is, "For Rogers is the price right?" To THAT question I see no way, Jose. To answer my own question, I see this exchange from Rogers and Billy Beane at his interview to replace Beeston.

   Rogers: Mr Beane, first of all I loved your movies! You're the best British physical comedian I can ever remember seeing!

   Mr Beane: Uh?

   Rogers: Now, Billy...er, may I call you Billy, Bill? Er., well - here's the question: "Do you need a 200+ million dollar payroll to keep our Jays in contention?

   Mr Beane: Two hundred million! Two hundred million! I don't need no stinkin' 200 million! You just get be a couple of hundred 1953 Studebaker Hawk fenders and I know a guy I can swing a trade with for a ton of boxes of shoe laces, an' I know another guy who'll use the shoe laces to get us a great number 4 guy from the Taiwan league - they got talent over there we've never even scouted, it's the NEW Moneyball! I'm use to working with only a shoe string...

   Rogers: Mr Beane, welcome as our new President of Baseball Operations! You're the man we've been looking for!

SO - I hear this off-season there will be (allegedly) a pretty good class of free agent starters, perhaps Billy will allow AA to tie a few up with some old ribbon, used lace, or perhaps - dare I say it - with some old shoe laces. Stranger things have happened. Haven't they?

Yep, me, I'm alarmed about our 2016 starting rotation - but when I get too depressed I remember... them 57 Cats sure roared when they had to! Yep, them 1957 Cats, they were some team! So were the 2015 Jays, now that I recall. Yep, they were some team.. Too bad they couldn't hold on to that Price guy. Man, remember after he led the Jays to the 2015 World Series his 10 years with the Yankees! Wow, they were really something to watch weren't they...yep...they were really something to watch.

IS it time for my lunch yet? I really like the Jello for dessert. I like the green stuff best...yep...

Price
Stroman
Osuna
Hutchison
Sanchez

If Dickey continues to pitch as he has since the beginning of June (2.70 ERA in his past 12 games), he's a bargain at $12-million next year so the Jays will probably use the option.

Why worry? the world is ending in 3 months!
Stroman
Dickey - 12m for 200ip is reasonable
Hutchison
Buehrle (1/2 yr.)
Leake - 4 yrs.
Osuna/Sanchez open as starters in AAA

Of course, if the jays don't make the playoffs, I expect a new GM, then all bets are off - maybe another rebuild?

Maybe they decline the option but qualify him. Then if he declines the QO, they sign Estrada for presumably less than $12m.

I'm not sure why you'd start Sanchez and Osuna in AAA. They can be demoted if they don't perform, but they are very good at getting ML hitters out. Let's go ahead and see if they can do it for 6-7 innings at a time.

ya i agree.

using them in AAA doesn't save wear and tear on their arms.

Why would RA Dickey decline a qualifying offer north of 16m? Unless he doesn't like Toronto, he's much better off taking it and throwing another 180+ innings to earn himself at least another 5m for 2017.

Is it up to $16m now? Haven't been paying attention for a few years I guess. Thought it was $13m.

Yeah, I'm sure Dickey would be content to play on qualifying offers until he retires.

I would love to see 1 of the teams that sold - Cleveland/Oakland/Detroit make a strong run at a playoff spot - interesting to see the reaction of their fans. If Detroit make a run with Norris & Boyd in their rotation, that would be too funny!

Why would the Jays decline Dickey's $12m option and then offer him $13m or $16m as a QA?  Strictly for the draft pick?  He might be worth more than a draft pick if he continues to pitch as he has for the past 12 games.  A reliable 200-inning pitcher who is capable of anything close to what he's done since June 1 would be definitely worth $12m.

I suppose, to be fair, there are grounds for skepticism over whether Dickey can keep pitching so well.  Here's an interesting analysis which suggests that his velocity has improved (partially explaining his increased effectiveness since June 1) but his HR rate has fallen to an unsustainable level:   http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/8/4/9093877/the-summer-of-r-a-dickey-real-or-fleeting

 If the HRs return to normal, his ERA could drift closer to 4.00 or 4.20 which would be still pretty good and still perhaps worth $12m to help provide stability for the young kids in the 2016 rotation.

Don't you think Estrada would cost less than that $12m option? And perform at least at a 4.20 ERA level?

I'd probably offer Estrada a QO (assuming it's in the $13m range) if the rate stats stay the same from here on out.  If he doesn't take it, you get a pick. If he takes it, you get a one year $13m pitcher that can capably give you innings/depth, without any term or commitment. 

no way i spend that kind of money on estrada.

a good gm can get that type of arm for cheap.

Estrada seems the type that would end up not signing until after the draft if he receives a QO. Don't see other teams giving up a draft pick.

Then the Jays still haven't lost anything.

Funny for who?!!!!!!!! haha

I would love to see Detroit make it with Norris and Boyd. I like Norris. He is one of my favorite prospects.

Even more, I would love to face them in the first round.

"Then the Jays still haven't lost anything."

Unless he accepts and the Jays pay $16 million plus for a 4/5 starter.

So much fear of 2016 when 2015 has the Jays in a playoff slot on August 4th with the best offense in baseball and a rotation that includes David Price.  Sigh.

For 2016 we have...
Stroman - hopefully at 100%
Dickey - cheap at $12 mil for a 200 IP horse  just have a full pen for his April/May starts
Hutchison - his ERA has to drop to FIP levels someday doesn't it?
Sanchez - tempted to leave in pen but if he can start then he should
Osuna - will be given every chance to make it in the spring I suspect

Then a lot of 'ummm'. Hopefully this winter AA can get Buehrle to stick around or con Rogers into signing Price or some other free agent starter.

I am not particularly interested in 2016 right now.  The deals are done and there is very interesting baseball being played.

On the blooper into short centerfield, I thought that with Tulowitzki on the run and having to take a few steps and then a 360 to make the throw, Plouffe would very likely have scored had he tagged (much as Smoak advanced to third the other day).  I also thought that if the ball dropped, the centerfielder would probably  have an easier play on the runner from first at second base.  I could be wrong about that, but I suspect that Molitor might have seen it the same way. 

Do you guys think Reyes would have caught the blooper?

If that ball drops, it could change the entire game, no?

Reyes might have caught the blooper.  It was a good play- Reyes made plenty of those, but sometimes just couldn't get to the ground ball a step or two to his left.

If it's $16m.  I haven't seen that inflation jump from 13-16 yet.  $13m for a 2 WAR starter who gives you 200 IP isn't a bad thing to have.

Except most of those arms won't come to Toronto without a premium or term attached to it.  The benefit is it a one year contract, that syncs up with the current team's window.

Basically, it's RA Dickey's contract or a bit more, and Estrada seems like he's at least as valuable as RA.

Jonah Keri in Grantland on the anatomy of the Blue Jay deadline acquisitions. 

I'm getting alarmed about our 2016 starting rotation

Unusual for such an unabashed optimist to be going so far out of his way to invite trouble. The balance of 2015 could be highly entertaining. Revel in that and worry about 2016 later.

Matt Boyd is getting the call to the bigs and will join Norris in the rotation.

I hope they both do well, but I'll be cheering hard against any team ahead, tied, or just behind the Jays.

So... Go Royals, both Sox, Astros, A's, and Indians.

And Eno Sarris has a fine article on Josh Donaldson and hitting.  When you think about it, Donaldson's approach that is tailored so well to the RC, should also work in Yankee and at Camden Yards. 

I just watched the play again, Mike. Pillar could've caught the ball himself, and if it dropped he was plenty shallow to go for the force at home in a tie game if the guy on 3rd is trying to tag.

And no, I do not believe Reyes makes that play, but I do think if Reyes is in the game that Goins makes the play himself.

Re: Valencia, there will be no trade. The A's claimed him outright and he's already on their 25 man roster and will be getting the start tmrw vs the LHP.

According to my ESPN app, Aaron Sanchez gets a three-game suspension for plunking Alcides Escobar Sunday and John Gibbons gets one for returning to the field during the bench clearing after being ejected.

How did the Royals fare in the discipline department?

Hasn't been released yet. Sanchez is appealing.

What is the timing of the appeal?  He could serve his time and be back for the Yankee series fresh (he warmed up quite a bit yesterday)...

Sportsnet.ca has a story on the suspensions.

"....Re: Valencia, there will be no trade. The A's claimed him outright...."

As mentioned above, it wasn't "outright waivers" -- it was "trade assignment waivers."  Yes, the transaction is officially concluded and there won't be a trade, and Valencia is now a member of the A's, but my point was simply that there may have been an unofficial "future considerations" deal between Beane and Anthopoulos, since AA could have prevented Valencia from going to Oakland by recalling him from "trade" waivers and requesting a minor prospect or something similar.  Beane might have offered a prospect in that situation, since otherwise AA would have put Valencia onto outright waivers, which would have effectively ensured that a NL team would get him.  By not doing that, AA did a favor to Beane.  Maybe that was a small favor in exchange for past favors, or maybe it was a small favor in exchange for a future favor.

What I meant was, there's no trade. The A's claimed him without having to give up anything other than 20k.

I think both Goins and Pillar could have caught the ball, and I'm surprised Pillar didn't call off Tulowitzki for it. But I might not be remembering correctly, and maybe Pillar had no shot.

It looks to me like MLB could have suspended both Volquez and Sanchez for throwing at batters.  After Donaldson apparently stole signs on Cueto, you could see Volquez and Cueto having animated discussions in the dugout.  If Volquez had hit anyone else up near the head, I would have thought that it was an accident.  This one was pretty clearly (to my mind) intentional and the Royals' comments afterwards kind of cemented that.  To suspend two Blue Jays and no Royals in this situation amounts to an endorsement of Wolf's umpiring by the league.  It's a bad call by the league. 

Reminds me of a hockey game I played in a few weeks ago.

Ref was only calling penalties on one side. Final result was a brawl.

Good times.

So what exactly is the etiquette for stealing signs? Is it something that is illegal and punishable, or just someone that is part of the game but considered a bit underhanded, or maybe just considered an acceptable part of the game but to not get caught otherwise you'll get thrown at? Aka unwritten rules and all. Since I've not heard of any strict punishments I'd have to think its the latter. I really hope people don't bring back the men in white crap, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was some sign stealing going on.

Players stealing and relaying signs is fine, you might end up with a ball in your back if caught, but there's nothing "unethical" about it. A team stealing signs using technology outside of the game (Giants in 51) is unethical and is considering cheating.

That's my opinion and a pretty standard opinion in baseball.

There is no rule (written or otherwise) prohibiting the stealing of signs by a runner at second base.  It has been understood to be a part of the game forever and is the reason why catchers run through a complicated series of signs when there is a runner at second base.  The remedy for opponents who believe that signs are being stolen is to change their system, not to throw at the baserunner.  It's bush league.

Dombrowski was released from his contract by the Tigers.  He'll be in demand (if he wants to continue in baseball).

Would have to think he's the main choice now to replace Beeston.

I like Dombrowski as President of the Jays

Conspiracy theory - Blue Jays overpay for Price rental because there was a quid pro quo for Dombrowski's release without having the jays having to formally pay compensation that blew up in their face last year.

"I would love to see Detroit make it with Norris and Boyd. I like Norris. He is one of my favorite prospects.

Even more, I would love to face them in the first round."



then top it off by beating the mets in the world series.

Of course it's ridiculous that Gibbons and Sanchez are suspended while nobody on the Royals is suspended.  (Unless they simply haven't yet announced the Royals suspensions, but that seems unlikely since presumably the suspensions would all be announced simultaneously.)

However, it's possible that Sanchez got himself into trouble by admitting the deliberate beaning, while the Royals didn't actually admit their misconduct, even if they came close to admitting it indirectly.  It seems that Sanchez openly described himself as "protecting my team" after his ejection, which he probably shouldn't have admitted.  From a John Lott story today:

Replays clearly show Sanchez, after his ejection, shouting at Wolf: “I’m protecting my f—— team, that’s bulls—.”

I had a look at Price's career lines in various ballparks.  At Yankee Stadium, he's 6-2 with a 3.52 ERA.  He was 8-0 at the RC with a 3.53 ERA.  The two parks where he has been hit hard (in small samples) are the Ballpark at Arlington and Coors.  He has been surprisingly dominant in Fenway, with an ERA under 2 in 11 starts. 

I suspect the Jays front office is screaming at the league office right now over this.  Both teams in a pennant race and two stars on the Jays are clearly thrown at (don't tell me that was a pure accident that all balls near the head were to Donaldson) the Royals pitcher threatens Bautista online.  And that is all A-OK?  Boy will it get ugly if these teams meet in the playoffs.

Wow, crazy news. Queue the rumours!

Mike Green, speechless!

I was trying to post this before a technical glitch:

"Reports clearly show Sanchez after his ejection shouting at Wolf: I'm protecting my f---- team, that's b---s---

I usually prefer Howlin' Wolf to Howlin' at Wolf, but I'll make an exception this time!"

I doubt the Jays would have Dombrowski as part of the Price trade even informally.  But he would be worth looking at very seriously as a new president to replace Beeston.  It'll be interesting to see what happens.

I suspect the Jays front office is screaming at the league office right now over this. Both teams in a pennant race and two stars on the Jays are clearly thrown at (don't tell me that was a pure accident that all balls near the head were to Donaldson) the Royals pitcher threatens Bautista online. And that is all A-OK? Boy will it get ugly if these teams meet in the playoffs.

Given MLB's extreme reluctance to publicly criticize their umpires, I don't foresee any suspensions to KC since that would constitute a tacit admission that Jim Wolf umpired a dreadful game on Sunday.  Indeed, not suspending Sanchez and Gibbons would have sent the same message so their suspensions were pretty much pre-ordained as soon as Wolf gave them the heave-ho.  For those of us wishing to see a bit of justice done, it's frustrating to see Wolf's original errors compound themselves, but practically pre-ordained by MLB's commitment to protecting its umpires.  I suppose the Blue Jays could give Randy Wolf his unconditional release if they were of a mind to retaliate...

Remember when Baltimore asked the Jays for Hoffman and Pentecost in exchange for Duquette?  Yeah, that wasn't happening.  And I guess Detroit won't have much bargaining power to demand anything for Dombrowski, since they've already fired the guy.....

"....I usually prefer Howlin' Wolf to Howlin' at Wolf...."

Always good to see the occasional Chester Burnett reference in da Box....

For the record I have no problem with Gibby's suspension. And if Sanchez did in fact say that, then he does deserve to be suspended too. I have a big problem with no Royals being suspended though.

don't tell me that was a pure accident that all balls near the head were to Donaldson

The one that hit him, the one that brought on the warning - yes. But not the others. When you're trying to hit a guy, you simply don't do it with a changeup. Of course, Donaldson had already been hit once, and Volquez changeup is harder than Buehrle's fastball. But if he was trying to hit him again, he would have thrown a fastball at him.

If you think the runner on second is stealing your signs, you have your catcher set up low and away, and then come in high and tight. For a strike. After which, the batter will be extremely reluctant to believe anything the runner on second suggests will be coming.

I was surprised Gibby only got 1 game as he flaunted the rules there really badly.  If the Jays face Volquez again expect that after he buzzes a Jay that that Jay seriously considers doing a George Bell (charge the mound and kick the guy) given we know the league and umps won't protect the Jays.  Or if you are into the pen find the hardest thrower who you can miss for a game or two and have him throw it at the biggest Royal you can find.

I wasn't.  Gibbons broke the rules in order to prevent a massive fight or worse.  It was definitely a lesser of two evils decision.

I don't agree that it was pre-ordained what the league could do.  The league could have easily said in effect: "Wolf had his suspicions that Volquez was throwing at Donaldson and that's why he issued the warning.  We are now satisfied by what has transpired since that he was.  We are therefore suspending both Volquez and Sanchez (with Volquez suspension being for longer because he is a starter)."

I agree with Mike here.

The suspensions might help fire up the Jays. The best revenge is to win games.

I don't agree that it was pre-ordained what the league could do. The league could have easily said in effect: "Wolf had his suspicions that Volquez was throwing at Donaldson and that's why he issued the warning. We are now satisfied by what has transpired since that he was. We are therefore suspending both Volquez and Sanchez (with Volquez suspension being for longer because he is a starter)."

Oh, I agree that what the league could do wasn't pre-ordained; they had plenty of alternatives, and as is all too common when terrible umpiring is at the root of the problem, took the one that allowed themselves to wash their hands clean of any suggestion that the umpires were largely culpable for the unpleasantness that followed the hit batter in the eighth.  Your suggestion is eminently reasonable, and on the facts as we know them would engender a just result, but that doesn't seem much of a motivating factor when it comes to player discipline, for the most part.

In addition to their general reluctance to challenge umpires, the conspiracy theorist in me can't help but speculate whether the negative press around Bumgarner and the ensuing implications of racist double standards in the game didn't also play at least some part in MLB's decision on the Sanchez suspension. Myself, I believe the discourse has become much too black and white (pardon the pun) on the subject, but it is hard to dispute that racism, whether overt or otherwise is still a problem in all major sport leagues. Operating under an increasingly hot spotlight, I wouldn't put it past MLB to manufacture an opportunity to demonstrate their sensitivity to the issue and move themselves further away from the prevailing narrative in the media.

On a completely different (and less troublesome topic) Neil Paine and Nate Silver published this piece on the decisions made at the deadline. I won't spoil the ending...

In view of how Joe Mauer has basically stopped hitting since being moved to first base, one wonders if the Twins should think about moving him back behind the plate. He was always an outstanding catcher - they moved him off the position because they thought the wear and tear of the position would impact his hitting. But his hitting has gone down the drain anyway. Might as well get his defense.

red sox take the lead!

That's a very interesting thought, Magpie.  The hard part of catching in the long run is usually cumulative wear on the knees.  At this point, he's only caught 920 games in his career.  He should have another 500-600 in him. That might be 5 seasons. 

"When you're trying to hit a guy, you simply don't do it with a changeup. "

Don't think Volquez was trying to hit Donaldson, he just wanted to throw a changeup at his head, which is OK by MLB.

Ryan Goins, hitter.  What a concept.

The other 4 IBBs this season have been to Bautista (twice), Encarnacion, and Navarro.

Mauer has had concussion issues, necessitating the positional change. He's not going back to catching.

Bautista aired it out there. It was a play where he did potentially have a shot at Rosario at second, but it wasn't really necessary that he do that.  It might be that his shoulder is feeling better now. 

Intentional walks have always been interesting to me, because it's something that very clearly shows how different managers operate differently. Lloyd McLendon in Seattle has given out 32 free passes; Joe Girardi in New York just 4. Molitor with 22 coming into tonight is a little above the league average of 17; Gibbons is a little below.

Earlier this year, Molitor gave Bautista a free pass to pitch to Encarnacion with one out and a runner on second in third third inning of a scoreless game. Which seems pretty weird to me. (The pitcher then walked Encarnacion to load the bases, but Martin hit into a DP to end the threat.)

In June, Terry Collins gave Bautista an IBB with two out and a man on second to pitch to Smoak. The Mets were down 7-0 and he had a LH on the mound; I'm betting Torres fell behind 2-0 and they just decided to give up the AB and move on to the next guy.

Two days later, Showalter walked Navarro on purpose with two out and a man on second in the sixth inning of a 2-2 game. Roe struck out Pillar to end the inning.

And less than two weeks ago, McLendon walked Encarnacion with runners on second and third, no one out, in the ninth inning of a tie game. This was the one that blew up - Colabello delivered a two run single, and that was your game right there.

Mauer has had concussion issues, necessitating the positional change.

OK, that makes a lot of sense. Forgot about that.

bullpen lookin' hot.

Mildly surprised that Sanchez didn't pitch the ninth as he only needed 9 pitches in the eighth and it looks like he will have 3 games to rest up.

Is it just me or is Edwin running the bases a lot better lately? At least more aggressively. Seems to be taking the extra base whenever available, which is great to see. Wonder if he's finally healthy for the first time this year.

Aside from that, a proposed nickname for Marco Estrada: Slow Motion. (In a good way, not in the "Steve Trachsel" kind of way...)

edwin seems to be doing everything better recenttly.

RA Dickey's option is getting picked up, and no chance Marco Estrada gets a QO. I seriously don't understand some bauxites sense of the market. This is the same Estrada you guys wanted to non tender. The same Estrada who we got for Adam lind, who's option everyone wanted to decline.

Also, 85, do you hate the jays?

85jays likes the homegrown failures from '85, not the mercenary champs of 92-93, maybe.

The Jays are currently in sole possession of the second WC spot and of second place in the division, 5.5 GB of the Yankees. Keep it going, Blue Jays.

can't see where anyone suggested Estrada get a qualifying offer.

Jevant yesterday was arguing for an Estrada QO.

I think Jevant stated that IF it was $13m, which it isn't, that that amount for a 2win pitcher isn't the "worst thing".

Hardly qualifies as bauxites arguing for qualifying estrada.

If you want estrada, 2/$20m or 3/$27m would probably get it done in November.

As the person that suggested the QO for Estrada, I'll say this: you can look it up - I never suggested declining Lind's option or non-tendering Estrada.

I'm going to maintain my position that Estrada is on pace for a neat and tidy 2 WAR season, which means he's right around the value of the QO on the open market ($13-16m, at $7-8m/WAR, that's not bad).  It's a one year contract if he accepts (at market rate, with no term), and a draft pick if he walks.  Obviously if the team can add additional pieces, by all means let's do that, but a guy who has done what he's done this year in the AL East deserves some consideration (and again, you don't have to convince him to come here in the first place if he accepts the QO, which makes him different from every other FA).

"isn't a bad thing to have", although I guess I just argued it a bit stronger than that 45 seconds ago. :)

I honestly don't know if I'd prefer a 3/27 or a 1/15 for Estrada.  Why would Estrada do 2/20 or 3/27 though?  Jason Vargas et. al have done better than that recently and they seem to be comparable pitchers.

Is it just me or is Edwin running the bases a lot better lately? At least more aggressively. Seems to be taking the extra base whenever available, which is great to see. Wonder if he's finally healthy for the first time this year.

He does look more comfortable at the plate, as well. 

The club as a whole is playing with intensity, mostly of the quiet variety.  It makes it easy to root for them.

Another team still has to sign Estrada before the next draft to surrender their top pick for the Jays to gain one.  I buy the argument some GM out there values Estrada at ~$15M/year for 1-3 years, but what about losing their top draft pick (especially with the slot money now)?  Unlikely IMO.

Agreed.  So there's probably a fairly decent chance he accepts, provided his agent reads the market correctly.  If he declines, he either sits out til June, or you get something for him, or (and this may be the most logical thing for all parties involved as outlined below), the Jays use the leverage of potentially giving him a QO to talk him into a 2/20-22 type deal or something like that before he even gets there.

Kinda depends on the overall plan for the 2016 rotation though, I guess.  I mean, if you keep Estrada and Dickey, you have the two of them, plus presumably Stroman and Hutchison penciled into the rotation already, and I'm still hoping that Osuna/Sanchez are viewed as long-term starters.  If you instead decide to go big on a starter instead, you probably don't keep both Estrada and Dickey.

I don't mind the Jays signing Estrada for $15mil/1year IF he can pitch this well again next year.

However if he pitches next season the way Hutchison is pitching this season then I say pass on him. :)

I think you need to temper your views on Estrada right now. He was a modestly above average pitcher in 2012 and 2013 and a decidedly below average pitcher in 2014. This year his results suggest he back to being an above average pitcher but his peripherals (particularly an unsustainable HR%) suggest he's more 2014 than 2012-13. His K/9 and BB/9 are all trending in the wrong direction. I like Estrada a good deal as a contending team's 5th starter but I don't know that I would be investing $15m or 10%ish of the team's budget on him.

So...

O's and Angels both lost last night. Twins obviously lost. Yanks continue to win, and are pounding their opposition. Both TB & Texas won, and the Tigers & White Sox lost.

It was nice to click on WC standings and see the Jays in sole possession of the second WC, and only a game back of the struggling Angels.

O's, Angels, & Rays have getaway games, so they play 12:35pm PST games. Yankees play at 7pm EST.

agreed with nigel.

enjoy estrada, but don't count on him.

Out the starters we are losing, I would spend the money on getting Beurhle back. He is a workhorse and dependable.

I agree. Estrada is a #4/5 starter, unless there was something very magically that he just figured out that only insiders know....

Estrada is interesting.  His BABIP and HR/fly rates are both down, but so too are his hard contact and pull rates.  Over his career, his ERA, FIP and xFIP are all right around 4.  The safest bet is that is what he is. The other question about him concerns durability.  He's never thrown more than 152 innings in a year, and he is at 111 now.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he is able to throw 170 inning this year but pushing it beyond that would likely involve some extra risk.

It's true that Estrada probably isn't worth the salary that he will command in 2016, and could be a risky gamble.  On the other hand, do you want a repeat of the situation this year, where the Jays rotation was so bad that the team fell behind the contenders early in the season, needed an 11-game winning streak to return to contention, and even then had to trade away one of its top prospects (plus 2 others) to rent an ace at the trade deadline?  Yes, the rotation ended up being good, but those early losses in April and May could have ruined the season. You don't want to be trading away your prospects for a rental every year.  So, with Buehrle and Price likely gone, and with question marks still surrounding Hutchison and much uncertainty over whether Osuna and Sanchez can do a full season in the rotation, Estrada is the kind of pitcher who could capably fill a rotation spot next year, even if it's the 5th spot.  You can't count on free agents coming to Toronto, and going to the trade market means the loss of more prospects.  So if you can sign someone like Estrada for two or three years, I think you do it.

If the Jays make the playoffs I wouldnt mind a repeat of this year.

paying too much money for bottom kf the roster players was early-AA Era type mistakes.

but he's learned not to pay too much for bottom rotation guys (i.e. happ) or dh types (lind) or middle relievers and the team is far better off thanks to it.

the team should be even sleeker next year with izturis/navarro/valencia bench money taken off the books.

sinking that money back into a bottom rotation guy like estrada is a step back.

Estrada is only a bottom-rotation guy in the worst-case scenario, which several of us are using as a conservative measure of his possible performance in 2016.  He's been a top-rotation guy (or top half of the Jays rotation anyway) for most of this season.  In fact I'd shudder to think of where the Jays would be without him this year.

Repeating this year (including trading a bevy of prospects) may not be possible next year. The Jays have depleted a significant amount of talent and depth from the farm. While some here may think the farm is still strong (I don't), the remaining pieces may well not be what potential trade partners want or need for future moves.

They should just take that $15mil for estrada and add it to their offer for Price.

The notion of $15-million for Estrada is a bit of a red herring.  If the Jays want him, they will probably sign him to a two-year or three-year deal, for vastly less than $15m per year. 

And I agree with hypobole that the Jays won't find it so easy to rent an ace in 2016.  They can't keep trading 11 pitching prospects for four or five veterans every July.  They have to be a little more prudent with their existing assets, which include Estrada.  (He's an existing asset in the sense that he might sign a new contract more easily than a free agent who knows nothing about Toronto except the negative stuff about borders and customs and taxes etc.) 

A multi year contract is probably less team friendly than a 1 year $15mil contract, don't you think?

Or what if they fill the rotation next year with Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman and go with a no name bullpen again.

"Estrada is only a bottom-rotation guy in the worst-case scenario"

no. worst case scenario is last year, when he's unplayable. and looking at his current xfip seems only a short skip and jump away.

In his five-year major-league career, Estrada was "unplayable" exactly once: for a couple of months in the middle of 2014.  If you're going to fixate on that, your risk tolerance far too low to be dabbling in baseball management.

Uglyone's risk tolerence is too low to be dabbling in baseball management?

Haha good stuff!

Estrada is a 31yr old who hasn't had even one season as a fulltime starter.

in his career as an SP he's averaged 5.8ip/gs, with marginally higher than average era (104era-), fip (104fip-), xfip (103xfip-).

he's a decent #4 sp, but not an especially reliable one.

this is not a player you guarantee a notable roster spot to.

Estrada looks good this year. Buck and Tabler keep talking about adjustments he's made, so maybe that has something to do with it. If he keeps this up I'd offer him a two or three year contract worth 10 million per. That's the going rate these days for a decent starter, and it's a decent gamble based on what we've seen so far.

Maybe Chuck and I and a few other junior seniors around here are the only ones who want to talk about the 2015 Blue Jays rather than the 2016 Blue Jays.  Honestly, at this point, whether Estrada gets a QO or whether he signs on before that point, is very low down on my list of concerns.  The delicious aroma of playoff has me wanting to dig in.

LOL.  I tend to agree.  I really didn't intend to start so much of a discussion.

I understand people wanting to enjoy the 2015 season without thinking about the future, but it's natural to wonder what happens to a team after an "all-in" season.  The Jays are all in for 2015.  Great news and exciting times, but the logical corollary is a potential decline in the following year.  And after all, the Box is a forum where we endlessly debate the teenage prospects who won't reach the majors until 2018 or 2019, so clearly we're a future-oriented place!

Fangraphs gives Estrada a career 7.2 WAR and a value of $12.9-million just for the first few months of 2015 alone.  He's been relatively good in 3 of the past 4 seasons, which makes him fairly reliable.

I think most of us agree that he's a number-4 type of pitcher in a rotation.  Ideally you do better than him for the rotation, and ideally the Jays have enough revenue from improved attendance and TV revenue to boost the payroll sufficiently to acquire better pitchers in 2016.  But we all know the difficulties of attracting free agents to Toronto, especially free-agent pitchers in a hitter-friendly stadium.  That's why Anthopoulos ends up trading for pitchers, which is expensive in terms of prospect capital.  He had to trade for 80 per cent of the current rotation, at a heavy cost.  We can't just assume that we can dump Estrada and replace him with a free agent or a trade.

I'm just saying that if the Jays have a bit of an edge in negotiating with Estrada -- because he's already here and knows the advantages of the city and the organization -- then why not exploit that edge to try to sign him?   Nobody is saying that he should be guaranteed a rotation spot -- he's perfectly fine for a swingman role if someone better comes along for the rotation.  I just don't want to see a repeat of the past three seasons where the Jays end up scrambling for pitchers mid-season because they hadn't banked enough pitchers in the off-season.

I like how we found estrada this year. Let's do that again next year, this time with revere or saunders as bait.

I don't think Revere or Saunders gets you a pitcher as good as Estrada has been this year.  The Jays got lucky with Estrada -- they acquired him after a relatively poor season when his trade price was low.  Most pitchers acquired for a Lind or Saunders are not going to be as good as Estrada has been this year.

One last point: the Jays have lost Norris, Hoffman and Boyd in the past few days.  Those were three pitchers who could have cracked the rotation in 2016.  That's a major blow to the team's depth, and it makes someone like Estrada much less easily replaceable.  That's why some of us are already thinking about the 2016 rotation, and where the assets might come from.  It's a valid question.

I say next year we trade 3 more prospects for another ace!

Whoever we drafted this year + whoever we drafted last year + some IFA we sign.

It definitely is a valid question.  The parameters for the question are, however, framed by what happens over the remainder of the year.  I have no idea what the team budget will be for 2016, and how the team does from now on might plausibly affect the number.  I have no idea whether Buehrle might eventually decide that he likes it here.  I have no idea what kind of shape Stroman might be in. 

".... I have no idea whether Buehrle might eventually decide that he likes it here...."

I would fervently wish that he does.  He would look fantastic in a 2016 rotation.  But virtually every analyst and reporter on the Jays beat is assuming that he will be gone after this season. After all, Buerhle couldn't even bring his family to Toronto because of the pit-bull thing.  He had to live apart from his family during the season.  Who would voluntarily agree to extend that situation for further years?

Mike, lets talk 2015!! (and a bit of 2016...)

Price, just by himself makes us a (potential) three game winner for sure(ish) in a 7 game series. However, we DO have to actually get to a 7 game series for that to matter much. Right NOW - The Price IS right, Buehrle's buehrle-ing (not sure that's a word - but if it's not - it should be), Dickey delights and Estrada plays like a fine violin. Hutch - er - well - Hutch is there too.

But what about the 800 pound gorilla in the 5' 9" body - namely - Marcus (The Shaman) Stroman? Might he be back by October (god willin' an' the river don't rise so we get that far)? I think he REALLY might. IF - Price is not signed for 16 - this October might be the only time Price and Stroman play for the Jays at the same time. (That would be a shame).

In the play-offs you really only (usually) need three starters: 1) Price - no question? 2) Buehrle - perhaps the surprising Estrada? 3) Stroman or the delightful Dickey - or the loser of the 2) joust? IF we had to go with FOUR - Who would sit from Price, Buehrle, Stroman, Estrada and Dickey? Would Dickey make a really interesting change of pace as a bullpen arm in the play-offs?

It all makes the mind spin - or is that just the single malt....

I like how we found estrada this year. Let's do that again next year, this time with revere or saunders as bait.

This is essentially what it comes down to. I have faith that AA (hopefully it's AA) will be able to get creative again, since bidding for FAs on the open market for mid/upper pitching talent has largely been a non-starter for the Jays. We can debate what Estrada is 'worth' but if it's not him, it's going to be somebody else of his relative quality in the 10M - 15M range. Hopefully Hutch can right himself, Stroman comes back and picks up where he left off and one of Osuna/Sanchez can fill a spot next season. I have to think Dickey's option will be picked up. That would leave one spot for AA to figure out. Price's market value is going to be astronomical and Buehrle's departure, whether due to retirement or a better situation for his family / dogs, is fait accompli.

Stroman's health and ability to pitch well in September/October is unknown.  There's a decent chance that if he is able to pitch some in September, he might improve in October.  If Stroman is completely healthy, the front three would be Price, Stroman and Buehrle.  With Osuna and Sanchez being the 2 top guys from the bullpen, you'd have a fine front five and one that is ready to do battle with just about anybody.  You obviously cannot anticipate that Stroman will be completely healthy and possessing the endurance to go 6 or 7 innings. 

In fairness I don't think the Jays knew what they had found (in Estrada). Otherwise he would have been in the rotation from the start of the year. He was only a candidate after Stroman's injury and Norris' demotion. So he began as SP7 at the highest.

Anyone in the mood for a quiz? No? Oh well, I'll ask anyway.

How many pitchers drafted and signed by the Jays during AA's tenure as GM have started at least one MLB game?

Speaking of Stroman, the Jays have just announced that he will pitch off a mound next Wednesday.  They're leaving open the possibility that he could be pitching for the Jays (in a bullpen role) in September.

And it's also been announced that Stroman will officially begin his rehab assignment on Aug. 21, probably in Florida.  So this is getting real.

Update:  apparently Stroman actually threw off a mound today.  (Not next week, but today.)  And his rehab assignment begins Aug. 21.

Same, can't we all just make a rule to think about 2016 when it arrives? AA is definitely not thinking about this as much as we are. I'm sure he's taking a wait and see approach with Marco.

Now THIS makes me excited for the future. The future being 2015 of course.

"How many pitchers drafted and signed by the Jays during AA's tenure as GM have started at least one MLB game?"

Off the top of my head, I'll go with 10.

4 who actually had a start with the Blue Jays, of which 2 still remain.
6 who had their start with others, as a result of trades.

"I don't think Revere or Saunders gets you a pitcher as good as Estrada has been this year. The Jays got lucky with Estrada -- they acquired him after a relatively poor season when his trade price was low. "

so i take it your suggestion is that we shouldn't buy low again, but buy high instead?

How many pitchers drafted and signed by the Jays during AA's tenure as GM have started at least one MLB game?

Good question. AA's first draft was 2010, so there's some runway for the better prospects to filter into the majors by now. Let's see:

2010 - Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nolin
2011 - Norris, DeSclafani
2012 - Stroman
2013 - Boyd, Graveman

Not including Osuna or others who have only relieved (though they may eventually be starters).

"In fairness I don't think the Jays knew what they had found (in Estrada). Otherwise he would have been in the rotation from the start of the year. He was only a candidate after Stroman's injury and Norris' demotion. So he began as SP7 at the highest."

i think he was likely slotted in at #5 in the offseason, and then a combo of Stroman’s injury and good springs from Sanchez and norris made management go a bit crazy and go with the kids instead....but imo that doesn't really matter.

more importantly, estrada was one of the options for the last spot in the rotation, on a nice cheap contract that didn't require us to keep him in the rotation no matter what. he kept our options flexible, and he had to earn every start.

we saw this all over the roster really - smoak/barton/cola at 1B, travis/goins/kawasaki/tolleson at 2B, and all the cheap optionable pen arms - flexibility was the plan, allowing us to keep the guys who deserved the spots.

so yeah estrada wasn't pencilled in as a starter...but that was the plan....and should be the plan next year. a bunch of cheap upside options at the bottom of the rotation is a much better option than committing $10-15m to a 32yr old who has never even been a full time starter.

ideally, osuna/hutch/sanchez take the spots and run but if nit have a couple of cheap buylow vets like estrada around gor insurance

"....i take it your suggestion is that we shouldn't buy low again, but buy high instead?...."

 Always buy low!  If you can get Cole Hamels for Ben Revere, please proceed!

I'm only suggesting that perhaps it's not always realistic to assume that the Jays can always do it.

You can't cherry-pick the best Jays trades of recent history and just say, "do more of those."  Because alongside the good trades are lots of bad trades, which at the time the Jays thought were good trades.

"....a couple of cheap buylow vets like estrada around for insurance...."

The problem is that they're not as easily available as you think.  Most of the "buy-low vets" are guys like Felix Doubront, Randy Wolf, Jeff Francis, Todd Redmond, Esmil Rogers, Chien-Ming Wang, Edgar Gonzalez, Aaron Laffey, etc, etc.  You can run those guys through the 5th spot in the rotation all season if you want, even rotate them and flip them around, but you won't get much production from them.

The best-case scenario for a "buy-low vet" is someone like J. A. Happ, but even he wasn't so easy to acquire -- the Jays had to send 7 players to the Astros for him. And even then he didn't have a decent Estrada-like season for the Jays until his third season here.  When he finally managed to produce a good season for the Jays, it was the exception, not the rule.

I'm also pretty sure Estrada was banged up in ST.

I just looked it up quickly and it was said that between Norris pitching well and Estrada's ankle injury that put him 2 weeks behind, the Jays decided to go with Norris in the rotation and put Estrada in the pen.

I thought it was odd that he wasn't pencilled in as the 5th starter after they traded Lind for him, but I guess that's why.

I'm not so sure those guys are "buy-low vets". More like "pick-up-for-free-out-of-the-trash vets". We gave up a very good hitter for Estrada.

Sanchez has dropped his appeal and will begin serving his 3-game suspension tonight.   Forgive my ignorance of the rules, but are the Jays prohibited from replacing a suspended player on the roster?  In other words, do they simply play with a 24-man roster for the full duration of the suspension?  That seems to be the case, because nobody is replacing Sanchez on the roster tonight, but honestly I didn't realize that the team was penalized as much as the player.

Okay, so who are the "buy-low vets" that the Jays have acquired in recent years for the starting rotation?  I can only think of Happ and Estrada.  And neither was exactly cheap.  The Jays had to trade 7 players for Happ, and they had to give up an excellent hitter for Estrada.  I really don't think it's as easy to acquire a reliable 5th starter as some people think.

Cruzin's 10 is what I got as well.

vulg, Wojcechowski and Nicolino both had MLB starts this year.

" Always buy low! If you can get Cole Hamels for Ben Revere, please proceed!

I'm only suggesting that perhaps it's not always realistic to assume that the Jays can always do it."

a good GM can look like a genius if he refuses to commit to borderline players in bottom of the roster slots, and gives himself multiple flexible options instead.

there are solid upside bets like estrada coming off bad years every year to buy low on.

worst thing you can do is commit to a 32yr old never-been SP coming off a career year with poor underlying numbers.

So...

Stoman...pitching...today...mound...delicious...

Would we do better with Price ($30 Million x 7) - or - {F.A. 1 for $15 big and 4 to 7 years + F.A. 2 for $15 big and 4 to 7 years}? I'd say - depends on who F.A.'s 1 and 2 are.

My point however is: Not signing Price would (might) not be the end of civilization as we know it. BUT - MAN - with Price and Stroman heading up the rotation in 16 we'd be one #2 or #3 starter from being the preemptive favorite in 2016 for taking the division...and...dare I say it...repeating as WS Champs!

"Okay, so who are the "buy-low vets" that the Jays have acquired in recent years for the starting rotation?"

AA had done a very poor job of this before this year. giving up way too much money and assets for bottom rotation guys, fungible relievers, and borderline position players.

thankfully he's learned from his mistakes.

mylegacy....i'll say it....

....if we sign price, we may be looking at a dynasty here.

Per Major League Rules, section 2(f).1:  A player on the Suspended List shall count against both Reserve List and Active List limits.

I'm sure this is getting tedious for everyone else, so here are a few final words of response on Estrada.

"....there are solid upside bets like estrada coming off bad years every year to buy low on....."

That's a nice sweepingly vague statement to make, and it sounds easy, but please give specifics.  The Jays have been trying to "buy low" since the Ricciardi era.  How often has it succeeded in the starting rotation?  If you think this is entirely AA's fault, then please give Ricciardi examples.  I've already cited a bunch of examples of where it didn't work -- to which I could also add Brandon Morrow, who was "bought low" but ended up very expensive and only had one good season.  And I was able to think of only two examples (Happ and Estrada) where "buy low" did work.  And even the Happ example didn't work until the third season, and required 7 players to acquire. The problem with "upside bets" is that they usually don't work, so you have to scramble mid-season to find an emergency replacement.  That's a losing strategy, unless you have endless prospects to trade.  Basically you're saying that one case (Estrada) proves that it's easy to find fungible starters.  I don't think one case proves anything.  And even if you cite a few more anecdotes from other teams, I'm sure the percentage of success is fairly low.  When you "buy low", you generally get what you pay for.

"...worst thing you can do is commit to a 32yr old never-been SP coming off a career year with poor underlying numbers...."

First of all, it's misleading to say that Estrada has "never been an SP."  He had 23 starts in 2012, followed by 21 starts in 2013, followed by 18 starts in 2014, and then 17 starts so far in the partial 2015 season.  (And we all agree that he could have gone into the rotation much earlier in the season, and he will still doubtless end up with 26 or 27 starts this season, which could have been significantly more if the Jays had recognized his potential earlier.)   So that's 88 starts in his major-league career so far, not counting the further 10 or so that he'll pitch this year.  His innings have ranged from 128 to 150 in the three seasons before this year. To imply that he's not an SP is seriously misleading.  He's been a starter for most of his five-year major-league career.

As for the "poor underlying numbers" -- sure, if you're a slave to xFIP and you ignore every other metric (and most of his previous seasons).  Every other number in 2015 has been average or above-average.  His WHIP is 1.114.   His FIP is 3.83 and his ERA+ is 116.  His BB and K numbers are not spectacular, but not particularly alarming for the kind of pitcher that he is.  (Fangraphs would classify his K rate this year as "average" and his BB rate as "above average.")  So then if you're basing your entire critique of Estrada on his xFIP of 4.60 this year, what about his career xFIP of 3.94 and what about his xFIP of 4.16 last year in his supposedly "unplayable" season (as you called it)?  I'm very curious why you attach so much significance to his xFIP in 2015 but you totally disregard it in 2014 and all previous years.

Finally, the fact that he's having a "career year" doesn't prove anything at all.  He could decline next year, or he could continue to pitch at the same high level.  There are plenty of examples on the Jays roster of players who suddenly had "career years" and then continued to perform at that high level.  (Bautista, Encarnacion etc.)  There's no rule that says they have to decline after a career year.

And then, if you acknowledge that it's a "career year", why are you making such effort to undermine it by focusing on his xFIP instead?  Either it's a good year (career year) or it's a bad year.  It can't really be both.  So pick your metric, please, and stick to it.

i skipped most of that.

but there's no slavishness needed to see his underlying numbers don't support his era.

.245babip, 6.8hr/fb%, 4.60xfip, 4.34siera

nothing in his career suggests that he can continue with that babip and hr/fb%.

enjoy what marco is doing. but don't expect it to last. and for pete's sake don't pay $10-15m for itm

Since you're skipping my comments, I've adopted the same strategy for yours.

you need an editor.

guarantees like marco estrada?

I'll weigh in on our #4/5 starter for 2016 since there's nothing else going on... Oh, wait.

Seriously, though, I doubt the bullpen can handle two pitchers unable to average 6 innings a start unless a massive innings muncher is added (Samardzija) or retained (Price). Since we already have Hutchison under control, and he has good bounce-back potential, the decision becomes easy when compared to the Scott Feldman deal Estrada might get. Either way, he's certainly not a $16M QO candidate.

Padres tried a couple of upside bets

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/brandon-morrow-shoulder-surgery-padres.html

i'd say the $10m they're paying kennedy to suck is a bigger issue.

It would be nice if we never saw a glove on Chris Colabello's hand again. I wouldn't be surprised if the players speak to Gibboms about his lineup.

But all those "upside bets" make it easy for the Padres to replace any pitcher that sucks, right?

Sam Dyson had 1 start in 2013 with Miami, to make 11.

Well, upside-bet Morrow was worth 0.5 fWAR in 5 starts. Ian Kennedy, stodgy veteran presence personified, has a -0.5 fWAR in 19 starts. Coincidentally, his issue has been HRs, which is the same issue Estrada 'cured' to get to where he is this year. If I'm placing non-trivial money next year, it isn't that Estrada will post another HR/fb rate less than 7% (or 10%, for that matter).

kennedy might be a nice cheap pickup next year.

Perlhack, thanks for the clarification on the suspension rules.  The Jays have tried to schedule the Sanchez suspension for a period when they don't need him too much, but this could still hurt. They didn't need him tonight, but he's one of the best three relievers on the team, and the next two games are key ones.  He could have been valuable in those two games.  It took four relievers to hold a two-run lead tonight, and even then the Jays would have blown the save in the 9th if that final liner had landed.

I'm only speculating, but I wonder if Sanchez went beyond the team's orders when he plunked Escobar on Sunday.  If Gibbons wanted to send a message to the Royals, would he have used one of his best pitchers to do it, knowing that Sanchez would likely be suspended?  Maybe his emotions and his feelings of team loyalty got the best of him.  Certainly that TV replay, showing him cursing at Wolf and talking about "protecting" his team, made him seem more emotional than a player should be in that situation. He's young, he's emotional -- it's not a capital offense -- but it would have been better if the Jays had him available for the next two games.

"Sam Dyson had 1 start in 2013 with Miami, to make 11."

Yes that's right, I had Dyson in my original 10, the guy I totally forgot about was Nolin.

Nonetheless, with the heavy drafting of pitchers over the previous 5 years under AA. The drafts did result in pitchers making it to the MLB level with varying degrees of success so far, within the anticipated/expected timetable.

China fan, that's an interesting point about Sanchez perhaps acting outside of his authority in plunking Escobar, but don't forget Gibbons had already been tossed by the time Sanchez got in the game. I'm sure he wasn't far away, but it wouldn't be surprising if the message, if there was one, was not as forcefully delivered as it might have been had the manager still been in the dugout.

Misguided in the attempt or not, I can't be the only one just happy that Sanchez was able to hit the target, can I?

Well I think he missed the first attempt by about 3.5 feet.

It would be nice if we never saw a glove on Chris Colabello's hand again. I wouldn't be surprised if the players speak to Gibboms about his lineup.

One can only hope. The early returns on Cola at 1B this year are just as bad as in LF, to the point that his 1.8 oWAR is obliterated (and then some!) by an almost unbelievable -2.2 dWAR. I know you're not supposed to take defensive metrics seriously without three seasons worth of data, but those numbers are eye-popping. I mean, they're not just ugly, they're straight-up pug fugly.

Thing is, with some players, defensive metrics don't pass the eye test, but with Cola they do. And I'm only guessing here, but my intuition tells me defensive metrics for 1st base would be more accurate than OF simply because there is far fewer positioning issues clouding the numbers.

In the interests of clarity, the defensive metrics on Colabello at first base do not agree as they do in the outfield.  In the outfield, UZR and DRS both have him at -21 for his career (566 innings), which would be the equivalent of about -50 over a season.  That would be a lot worse than Adam Dunn in his worst season in the outfield.  At first base, DRS has him at -6 over his career (534 innings) and UZR has him a 0 over his career.  If you take an average you get -3, which equates to -8 over a year which is ordinarily bad but not noteworthy.

He's hit very well against LHP this year and you can make a case for Colabello as a platoon first baseman and occasional DH.  Smoak is definitely a much better fielder and you do want him out there the great majority of the time. 

That platoon angle missss the point Mike. The reason why Cola plays so much is because he's been one of our best hitters against RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS, not lefties.

vRHP

Bautista 141wrc+
Donaldson 140
Colabello 130
Travis 125
Encarnacion 124
Tulowitzki 104
Revere 104
Martin 103
Pillar 88

Smoak 97
Carrera 87
Goins 73
Navarro 63

It doesn't matter how he stacks up offensively unless you are suggesting that he should be DHing every day instead of Encarnacion, uglyone.  He's bad enough defensively that he needs to be better than that to be a useful player on the diamond.  He has been better against LHP, enough to make the defensive sacrifice reasonably worth making. 

offense always matters.

I agree, offense always matters, and there's a big gap between Colabello and Smoak on offense. 

Seems to me that the probably is easily solved.  There are 3 players for 2 spots: DH and 1B.  You give the bulk of the time to Encarnacion, using him in both DH and 1B, with occasional days off.  You split the remaining time between Colabello and Smoak, with a preference for Smoak at 1B and Colabello at DH.  And you continue to do what the Jays are already doing:  let Colabello start more games than Smoak, but let Smoak finish more games than Colabello, so that the team has Smoak's glove for the final 3 innings or so.  This does mean some 1B time for Colabello, but it minimizes it.

Does Carlos V qualify in our discussion? If so then we should go back to the Brewers since I believe both pitchers came from there.

Also I do not like to trade with K Williams of the CWS.

Sample size also matters.  If you look at this year only, Smoak has been better offensively than Colabello against LHP.  We don't treat that seriously because the sample size is too small and we know that over his career, Smoak has been better against RHP.  As a result, you take into account career trends in evaluating what a player offers against RHP and LHP.  Colabello's wRC+ against RHP has been falling like a stone; it's now at 130 and that is with a falling but still unsustainable .392 BABIP.  On the other hand, Colabello has been a very good hitter against LHP this year, and not only due to his BABIP.  His .230 IsoP reflects a power jump that is much more likely to be sustained than the BABIP.

You have to take into account offence and defence, unless Colabello is DHing.  If you do, it isn't a difficult call.  Smoak is a better overall player at first base, at least against RHP. 

"you need an editor."

Oh, the irony. Personally I enjoy reading China fan's posts, even when I vehemently disagree with them. They are typically well thought out and coherent.

Wow, that's very flattering (and unexpected).  I admit that I might be a little verbose occasionally, but at least I do try to punctuate and capitalize properly!

But truth be told, what keeps me posting here is the extremely high level of knowledge and expertise and provocative debate among most of the commentators in this forum, so it's a good opportunity for me to thank everyone (including 92-93) for their great contributions here.  It remains the most enjoyable daily conversation in Jays-land, especially for those of us who live far from Toronto.