Sure they gave up a lot and we may come to lament the losses of Norris and Alford (if they are indeed the ones), but it's going to be a lot of fun to watch baseball in this city over the next two (hopefully three) months.

Well, this is interesting.

The deal, if it happens, isn't just Norris, Alford and whoever for Price: it's for two months of Price plus the draft pick from the qualifying offer.

I think AA had to make a deal for pitching or there would have been an uprising in the clubhouse. And AA might get fired if he doesn't make the playoffs, since Beeston's replacement might want to clean house.

Davidi just said Alford isn't in the deal.

ALFORD NOT IN THE DEAL.

Norris, Boyd, Labourt, per Rosenthal/others.

Norris, Boyd, Labourt.

lol. I friggen nailed that Cueto comp. pat myself on the back.

They got rid of draft pick compensation for players traded at mid-season, no? So it's just two months of Price.

I believe most know my position on these deadline trades. I absolutely hate them.

It's not about the trades themselves, it's the fact these trades are being done with a team .500 team. If this team had a record that their Pythagorean W-L says they should have, no problem as the would be legit contenders. But we are a f'ing .500 team.

AA must be seeing the writing on the wall and know he's on the hot seat. If this fails, which the odds say they will. I'll be happy to see him go as this runs counter to everything he said he would do that I believed in.

We got the best hitter and best pitcher at the deadline.

And to do this we IMO used 2 of the 3 best "sell high" prospects we had - Norris, Hoffman, Sanchez - to do it.

I am ecstatic.

"It's not about the trades themselves, it's the fact these trades are being done with a team .500 team. If this team had a record that their Pythagorean W-L says they should have, no problem as the would be legit contenders. But we are a f'ing .500 team"

I for one am glad we have a GM who understands exactly what our run differential says about our team.

Oh okay - I didn't know that there is no compensation for players traded in mid-season.

AA is really going all in then, isn't he?

so...in the event of a wild card play-in game...Estrada still? (!)

So, when does he start?

It's a lot, but I'm glad Alford isn't going.

Since this time last year, the Jays have added Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Price.

I'm in shock.  And I'm in even more shock that anyone who has been a fan of this team for the last 22 years could be upset about any of this.

Well, Norris is quite the cost. I'm definitely less of a fan of this move than I am of the Tulowitzki deal, and would not have done it myself, given the need for pitching next year as well. Now that it's done, though, screw it. I'm just sit back, grab a beer (or many) and enjoy the next two (no, three) months. There certainly should be plenty to enjoy... and/or plenty of beer.

Who knows. If this energizes the fan base, that plus the playoffs revenue boost might allow the team to play in the deep end of the free agent pool this winter (starting with Price himself).

They got rid of draft pick compensation for players traded at mid-season, no? So it's just two months of Price.

Correct. It's a chunk of Toronto's farm system for 2 months of Price. There is no QO anymore for Price, so he or at least his agent, should be happy. We hardly 'acquired' him as some are saying.

I am a bit worried about who is going to pitch next year, but Norris is the only one that we "might" regret in the future. But, Detroit does need something in return...

Good deal.

He is. And that's the problem with GMs on the hot-seat. If the Jays win it all, no one will mind the high cost of a two-months rental. If they flame out, AA is out and it's not his problem anymore.

In my opinion, he is throwing good money after bad. He arguably went for it too early with the Marlins and Dickey trade. Now he has to double down. I would have preferred the Hamels deal. Giving up more but get more than just 2 months in return.

so...in the event of a wild card play-in game...Estrada still?

Probably best to talk to him the morning of, to find out if he's got one of his no-hitter type games planned. If not, relievers from start to finish.

Stroman 24
Hutch 24
Osuna 20
XX Norris 22 XX
XX Hoffman 22 XX

Sanchez 22
XX Castro 20 XX
XX Boyd 24 XX
Reid-Foley 19
Harris 21
Hollon 20
Greene 21

(Borucki 21)
XX (Labourt 21) XX
(Perdomo 21)
(Espada 18)
(Tirado 20)

CF Pompey 22
2B Travis 24
RF Alford 20
1B Guerrero 16
DH Tellez 20
C Pentecost 22
SS Urena 19
LF Smith 22
3B Nay 21

OF Davis 20
IF Lugo 20
C Jansen 20

Unless there is going to be an unlimited budget for acquiring FA pitching next year, this deal is not a good one. However , that feeling could be mitigated if EE is dealt for a controllable pitcher or very good pitching prospect.. Not holding my breath although the word is that AA is not done,

Um. Well, what's done is done, let's enjoy the ride, shall we?

Price's turn would be Sunday.

"He arguably went for it too early with the Marlins and Dickey trade."

He learns from his mistakes.

Now he realizes that when you're gonna go big, you go big - elite talent in their prime years - Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Price, Martin.

It's incredible, really.

"I for one am glad we have a GM who understands exactly what our run differential says about our team."

Just like in 2008, when we underperformed by 7 and finished out of the playoffs?

We have different approaches on how to build a contender or even what constitutes a contender rather, so we should just agree to disagree.

Wow. The cost is big but, wow, David Price. Playoffs are a given now, and it doesn't even matter if it's a wild card spot - Price backed by this offence is unbeatable.

...and so much for having a new non-200-post thread complaining about trading prospects.

Hamels had a no trade clause. Didn't want to come to Toronto. I know there were reports he may have waived that, but best guess is to waive it, the Jays would have had to restructure his contract i.e. give him more $ and/or years.

AA drafted arm after arm after arm the last few years....likely with exactly this in mind.

I hope it works but I am not a fan of this trade.  Not this much for a two month rental on a .500 team.  I know we're better on paper than .500 but that doesn't mean we're any closer than a hoped for shot at 1 game playoff.  We're not catching the yanks.

Who are our 6th/7th starters now?

This is not as good a deal as the Tulo deal (despite pitching being a greater need) simply due to Price's contract status.

Now if AA can convince him to sign an extension, boo-yah.

we should take a flyer on another cheap innings eating guy.

My take.. after 22 years when you've got a shot you've got to take it. You can't ask a market to just accept mediocrity forever.

Randy Wolf and very likely Felix Doubrount if he ends up clearing waivers and going down to Buffalo.

Haven't had a legit #1 since Roy.

I was hesitant on the deal before but now I'm all in. We just replaced a scrub with a Cy Young candidate. Like I said in the other thread, with this offense it's not outside the range of possibilities that we could win all 12 of Price's starts. With Doubront pitching we're lucky to go 6-6. Even if we go 9-3 in Price's starts that's an extra three wins easy. We're two games out of the wildcard... you do the math.

We have a .500 record but this isn't a .500 team. We're quite a bit better, and as the season goes on the team is getting more and more tight. Our bullpen has actually been quite good of late, and for pennies on the dollar (kudos to Gibbons for making it work as well as it has). The offense is literally otherworldly and just got even better. Our defense just got better as well, and was fairly solid to start.

It's a rental, but I don't think AA is doing this just to save his job. It's a legitimate good move for a team and fanbase in serious need for some excitement. We were worrying about clubhouse chemistry after we traded Reyes. You can stop worrying about that, because this team is going to be pumped for Price.

I, for one am excited for the rest of the season, and am not too worried about those prospects who may or may not amount to anything. The system is still quite decent, with plenty of exciting names that will hopefully contribute one day.

Well, he's not Mike Leake. But he'll do.

Those suggesting AA gets fired, if they don't make the playoffs, are nuts!

I bet Rogers loves him right now. Do you know how many more butts will be in the seats? How much more merchandise will be sold? Soft drinks, hats, popcorn etc. AND how many more eyes will be glued to the TV sets across the country? These trades will tremendously increase their revenue.

AA did a great job w/ these trade. Keeping players on the major league roster, and selling on some highly valuable prospects. Like I said before, the market inefficiency is currently the overvalue of prospects.

AA will definitely trade EE in the offseason. I call it for Glasgow of the Pirates.

GO JAYS!

"
Jack Curry ‏@JackCurryYES 5m5 minutes ago

Price's potential starts.Aug 2-KC, 7-Yanks, 12-A's, 18-Phil, 23-Angels,28-Det. Sept 2-Cle, 7-Bos, 12-Yanks, 17-Atl, 22-Yanks, 27-TB,Oct 2-TB"

3 vs Yankees.  Love it.

I hope even the critics try to enjoy watching all these elite players play for our team, at least. It's rare.

David Cone for Jeff Kent. Rickey Henderson for Steve Karsay. Both Kent and Karsay turned out to be great. But I bet most of us would do those every single day for the chance of 1992/1993 all over again.

Those suggesting AA gets fired, if they don't make the playoffs, are nuts!

I prefer "pistachios" myself. :-)

My thought is that Beeston's replacement might want to bring in his own guy, regardless of what happens this year.

Just like a manager gets to choose his own coaches, a president gets to choose his own GM if he wants. But I think that if the Jays let AA go (a) they're making a big mistake (b) he'll probably find another job somewhere.

We were worrying about clubhouse chemistry after we traded Reyes. You can stop worrying about that, because this team is going to be pumped for Price.

Yeah no kidding. Geez, the one thing consistent about AA is his unpredictability. Never thought he'd go all in for a rental. Hope they go hard at resigning him in the offseason as Beuhrle, Navarro and RR free up 31mm next year. Ignore that Cdn dollar, Rogers!

 Anyway, AA's gotta lot of guts, and you have to like him for that alone.

medicals done.

deal is official.

Unrelated question: Is anyone else confused by the Latos / Wood / Olivera / etc deal? In particular, the inclusion of Peraza without more coming back seems a little much. I'd have thought Wood would have been able to fetch Olivera on his own.

It's a big risk, if they don't make the playoffs and lose Price as a free agent. It's a gutsy move no matter what happens, but I guess it was done by a GM fighting for his job with little to lose if the trade doesn't pay off as expected.

And good point about the wild card, that was made upthread: if the Jays are going to have their season ride on one game, they'll likely have David Price to start it. I like their chances.

He has been demolished by the Yankees in his past few starts against them however. Still like his odds better than Dubrount.

"AA will definitely trade EE in the offseason."

Really? I had that earmarked as not picking up the option. Are tehre really teams that would be happy to pay $10m (and a player) for him right now?

I suppose (as I argue with myself) to avoid having to give him a multi-year deal as a FA...

29 other teams would be thrilled to pay EE $10m and a player for him right now.

It's stunning to me that EE has a 16% above league average year, after 3 straight years of 40%+ above league average, and now he's basically back to where he was when the Jays DFA'd him in some people's minds.

I don't like the deal. I'm less against it than I was when I heard Alford was the third name; Labourt hurts less.

However, I think the price is still too high for 12 starts. Norris, however much he was struggling at Triple-A this year, was a viable rotation candidate for 2016, at worst. Now the team will have to replace Price, Buehrle and maybe Dickey and have lost their three most advanced legitimate pitching prospects over the last two days.

Even if Sanchez moves back to the rotation and Stroman returns without any issues, this leaves a very thin margin for error in 2016. The team will have to make a mid-level FA acquisition or two to rectify that, but they're going to spending a good portion of the money they paid to Buehrle to do that. Meanwhile, most of the team's position players are going to get more expensive, including Donaldson who will command a significant raise at arbitration.

Norris is a little riskier than some Triple-A prospects may be, but he was the 18th best prospect in BA's midseason rankings. And don't forget he advanced three levels last year and then was prematurely promoted to the majors in a decision that was questionable at the time. If Norris had finished the season strongly at High-A or Double-A and then faced some struggles this year, I don't think he'd be viewed in quite the same manner, as it'd be seen as a natural part of the development process and people wouldn't have the same level of disappointment with him.

I'd rather AA have paid this price for a controllable pitcher or paid a lesser price for a mid-level rental along the lines of Ian Kennedy. I understand the advantage Price provides in a one-game play-in and a short series is substantially higher than Kennedy's, but Oakland traded Addison Russell on the same principle and Jon Lester didn't take them onto the next round of the playoffs (the A's didn't have Toronto's offence, but still....). And don't forget that this is assuming that Toronto can set up its rotation to get Price to pitch the one-game play-in, as opposed to having to battle over the final few days to even make the playoffs. They might well be able to do that, but even so, anything can happen in one game.

I'm glad the team made a playoff push this year, but I think it's an overpayment that is a significant sacrifice for the 2016 (and beyond) part of this contention window.

Once they got Tulo there was  no point in not doing this move.  If you look at the core of this team Price would be a fool to not consider even a short deal to win with Bautista. He will get offered stupid money but this is a good situation of He gets a reasonable offer.  I'll be a bit pissed I'd there's no intent to extend and he walks for nothing it's a big price.  However I accept that it's a necessary deal and the right move in these circumstances

Controllable rotation depth would be nice.

Let Hutch figure his stuff out away from a ML race.

The Padres still have all 4 of their arms...for now.

It's an expensive rental.  I like Boyd more than most, and like Norris as much as the crowd, so unsurprisingly I'm not a big fan.  I would have preferred a lower cost option or indeed no trade at all and a simple promotion for Boyd (who is ready I think). 

Notwithstanding all that, the deadline has had the shape that I imagined and on average worked out a little better than expected.  Now that there is an ace left-handed starter, could we please give him the gift of a left-fielder brought up from Buffalo to catch those occasional fly balls that he surrenders.

I think I'm a bit too excited to be objective right now. I'm not high on Norris and the other two prospects are speculative at best, but when we look back, I think we could probably have gotten a really good controllable arm for the same package or slightly more.

That said, we have a top 3 team in MLB right now and I am going to sit back and enjoy the ride. We still have a good system.

Making big deals is why you build up excess in the farm.

Has anybody done the super2 math on Pompey assuming he's up forever if recalled now? Could that be part of it or are they just being patient?

TJ, I'm not sure if you're suggesting trading Hutch to SD, but that only makes sense for SD if Shields is coming back. I'd prefer Cashner/Ross.

If you are in the middle of a playoff race and spending buckets of resources on competing now, worrying about Super 2 status would be bizarre (and in this case, it would be unnecessary because he isn't likely at all to qualify).  Let's assume that someone just believes that he is no better than the current alternatives in left-field (Valencia/Carrera/Colabello).  Who that someone is ought to be the subject of some tough questions...

I decided I don't like either of the trades.

I like to hold on to our prospects so I complain about how our system fails grooming them. I much prefer to spend another 20 years of mediocracy. I would rather have the hope\illusion of having a good team in 2-3 years than having a good team right now.

.... NOT!...

I live in Seattle. I laugh when they celebrate the won time they won the division championship. Think of all the great players they had(griffy, Arod, Edgar,etc). No flags flying.

***** Flags fly forever ****

I can accept the price we paid for this trade, but how I will judge this one has to be all on results. Tulo I think was a good deal because we're getting a controllable asset for multiple years. This one can only be judged on results. If we get to play an actual series this year I will be okay with it. (That means getting past the wc game). If we get past the division series than it is a success. Losing the WC game or failing to make the playoffs would be a disaster.

David Price?

Now you're talking.

That said, we have a top 3 team in MLB right now and I am going to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Yeah I think this team now is almost as good as the WS team of the 90s, save for the pen. Once they hopefully plug LF (we don't need Pompey to hit his weight), the only thing that's a bit iffy this year, is late innings from the bullpen. So far Osuna and Sanchez are doing well, but time will tell if they can handle the pressure well into September.

Anyway, best shot at a good fall for 22 years, so for now, unknown future be damned.

Is it worth writing an MLU tonight?

I actually like this trade better, mainly because I think Price replacing Doubront is a bigger upgrade than Tulowitzki replacing Reyes.

As for the prospects - the sheer quantity of prospects traded away this week is slightly concerning. Maybe some of them will grow up to be Syndergard or something like that. But the chances are just as good that they grow up to be Kyle Drabek. A bird in the hand...

Earlier this week it seemed as though AA was lining up for a two year run at the playoffs with most of the big sluggers signed through 2016.

This trade increases the Jays chances for 2015 but reduces the Jays chances for 2016 as your starting insurance just lost two components in Norris and Boyd.

I would have preferred a trade for a less heralded pitcher but one who would be here through 2016. It puts a lot of expectations on the team to get to the playoffs this year.

Price is still subject to occasional blowups, one of them this this year came against the Yankees. His one start against the Yankees this year saw Price hit around for 10 hits and 8 runs in 2.1 innings.

I'm incredibly excited but don't like the trade - very weird feeling. Anyway, I've decided to just enjoy the next 12 starts (hopefully) - but please God call up Pompey and fire Gibbons to go all in for this season.

I try to judge on process rather than results.

That's why I'll keep defending the Dickey trade and why I like this trade. Whether the 3 prospects all turn into all-stars or all bust has no significance to me.

BTW, it made me glad that the Jays will not be getting any money back in the deal.

Never been a huge Norris fan so I'm not particularly upset by the trade. Besides, does anyone remember what playoff baseball felt like? The best! If the Jays keep payroll as is, they'll presumably have some money to invest in the rotation next year. Reid-Foley isn't all that far away and he looks a pitcher.

Price (29): 21gs, 7.0ip/gs, 64era-, 77fip-, 84xfip-, 3.31siera, 3.5war, 5.3war/32gs
Buehrle (36): 20gs, 6.7ip/gs, 82era-, 97fip-, 103xfip-, 4.27siera, 1.8war, 2.9war/32gs
Dickey (40): 21gs, 6.5ip/gs, 106era-, 119fip-, 120xfip-, 4.70siera, 0.7war, 1.1war/32gs
Estrada (31): 15gs, 5.9ip/gs, 96era-, 101fip-, 119xfip-, 4.43siera, 1.2war, 2.6war/32gs
Hutchison (24): 20gs, 5.4ip/gs, 135era-, 101fip-, 101xfip-, 3.87siera, 1.4war, 2.2war/32gs


Starting to look more like a real rotation now.

Spifficus, the other shoe just dropped on the Latos deal. Dodgers are taking on Bronson Arroyo's contract too.

For every Syndergaard, there are 10 Nestor Molinas.

For every World Series banner...

Not a huge fan of selling talent (which is why I also liked that we didn't pay more for Detroit to pick up some Price money), so if the Arroyo inclusion required Peraza, I'm not a fan. It just weirds me out a bit that a rebuilding team like Atlanta's giving up young talent to save some cash (especially near-term cash)... Heck, that's what the original Arroyo trade was about in the first place.

For a would-be low cost option:
Step 1a: maybe EE for Carrasco and prospect(s).
1b: Flip Carassco with Jays' and/or Indians' prospect(s) for Price.
2a: Hague for Romak
2b: bring Romak to Toronto
3. Colabello plays DH
4. Romak and Carrera split outfield duties until Saunders is ready. Valencia plays IF utility.

But step 1 failed so AA would need to go for a higher cost for Price ?

For every Syndergaard, there are 10 Nestor Molinas.

Nestor Molina was never as highly rated prospect as Daniel Norris was and has been throughout his minor league career. There's no guarantee that Norris will reach his potential, but Nestor Molina had one good year as a minor league starter that was spent entirely at High-A, aside from double A-starts. He did not have the prospect pedigree of any of the three arms in this deal, I don't think.

Those of who wouldn't have done this trade are not opposed to trading prospects fuil stop. However, as Gerry and I have both pointed above, this particular trade comes at a significant cost to the second year of the 2015-2016 window and beyond.

Cashner getting shelled today. Sometimes I'm glad that AA makes the decisions instead of me.

Not only do the Jays now have the oldest and youngest players, they now have the fastest working pitcher and the slowest working pitcher.

This is a great move by Anthopolous. They've targeted arms in the draft, and have traded a bunch of them at or near the peak of their value. Sure, Norris might come back to bite them, but who cares. Under Anthopolous, the Jays have traded a ridiculous number of young arms (off the top of the head, Norris, Boyd, Labourt, Hoffman, Castro, De Jong, Graveman, Nolin, Nicolino, DeSclafani, Rollins, Wojciechowski, Jaye, Molina, Syndergaard, Musgrove, Comer, Farquhar, Magnuson, Henderson Alvarez) and only one of them (Syndergaard) has met or exceeded expectations. Sure, not all of them were top prospects, and a bunch of them are still young arms, but the success rate of these players is low.

Although I don't like the trade, the one thing I do agree with is a focus on keeping the high upside position players (Pompey, Alford, Urena) over the high risk high reward pitchers like Norris and Labourt. If your drafting strategy is to draft a boatload of high risk high reward pitchers you should take the view that they are your trading chips.

I like to hold on to our prospects so I complain about how our system fails grooming them.

If Ricky Romero had developed as an ace like Price, would this trade have happened ? Is a mini version David Purcey ?

Agreed on the prospect status point - interesting to note that Norris has had the same amount of good years - one - in the minors that Molina had at this point.

Actually, I would have liked the trade a lot better if they had been able to substitute a "higher upside" pitching prospect (Reid-Foley?) from the minors for Boyd. Maybe that wouldn't have worked for the Tigers...

I really do not know if drafting a boatload of high risk high reward pitchers is a begging-the-questions strategy, draftees have however been used as trading chips. So what are the contents of the drafting strategy ?

"It's stunning to me that EE has a 16% above league average year, after 3 straight years of 40%+ above league average, and now he's basically back to where he was when the Jays DFA'd him in some people's minds."

It is more me losing track of the scope of ridiculous salaries.

$10m should be a superstar player in my mind, not just someone above average in one (albeit an important) aspect of the game.

Is it worth even considering that it might not be crazy to expect we get Price pitching here in the next few years as well as the next few months?

David Price has pitched in 6 post-seasons. He has a 4.50 ERA, allowing 40 hits in 40 innings.

Did AA catch whatever Preller had in the off season.

In an alternate universe, if AA isn't a lame duck GM and had more years to mold the team, does he do the Price trade?

It's not crazy to consider Price staying here after this year but I would put the chances at 5%.

First of all, this is unquestionably an exciting move as far as 2015 goes. The next two months should be thrilling to watch. I wonder if the Jays might even be able to chase down the Yankees (on that note, I see Pineda is hitting the DL with a forearm strain).

As for 2016, who's going to be in the rotation? Stroman, Hutchison, Dickey, Sanchez, maybe Osuna? The Jays are probably going to need another quality arm or two.

Also, AA would either have to be gone and/or the club policy on no more than 5 year contracts would have to change.

Price is going to command more years than 5.

David Price has pitched in 6 post-seasons. He has a 4.50 ERA, allowing 40 hits in 40 innings.

That's somewhat worse than you would expect but too much, given the difference in quality of offences faced in the playoffs.  Most of it results from 7 home runs allowed in 40 IP.  He's 0-5 and has been gifted with an average of 2 runs/game of support in the playoffs.  If the Jays make it, they hopefully would do better than that for him...

Proven quality rarely comes cheap, and that's even more true when you're shopping for something specific. Maybe AA could have guilted DD a little bit by making offers on 1987 letterhead?

Per Fangraphs, the Jays playoff chances have increased from 34% to 45%. ESPN have the same odds increasing from 35% to 49%.

The chances of the Jays winning the division have jumped from 7% to 12%.

The most likely outcome is the Jays missing the playoffs - 55% (Fangraphs)
The next likely outcome is to play in the wild card game -33%
And then to win the division - 12%


The Jays need a run and starting with KC and Minnesota would be good.

Tulo has over 5 years left on his deal. So maybe the Policy is no more, or never truly was. Or maybe it was only out there so the Jays would have an excuse to not sign some guy they knew deep down was not worth it.

Looking at the current roster / free agents, the Jays should have at least $30 million to spend on player additions in the offseason (if the payroll next year is kept in the same ballpark as it was this year). Given that our entire starting position player lineup is under control for next season, that money should probably be spent on a starting pitcher (perhaps even David Price himself).

2016 rotation
1. *really expensive guy*
2. Stroman
3. Dickey
4. Hutchison
5. Sanchez (or Osuna)

Our starting pitcher depth has been depleted with no Norris, Boyd, or Hoffman around anymore, but we're looking pretty good for the top 5.

Technically it wasn't post-season, but Price's performance in the win-or-go-home game for the 2013 Rays (against Texas, in Arlington) was pretty decent.

The lineup for today features Martin DHing and Navarro catching against the lefthander with Colabello batting cleaning up.  They'll be making a DL decision on Travis tomorrow and Goins is in the lineup. 

It's kind of ridiculous with all the injuries to position players to have an 8 man pen.  Tonight the bench consists of Encarnacion (nursing injury), Travis (nursing injury) and Carrera.  Surely somebody would have more value than an 8th reliever.

Gibbons likes have options in the pen. Apparently more so than having a bench.

In fairness the 8 man pen is alongside a 4 man rotation since doubront was the one sent down.

I don't really take issue there.

Mike Green appears to have a little of the John Gibbons Condition, forgetting that Justin Smoak is on the team.

It is an awfully thin bench, but the lineup is reasonable. Pompey is the guy who should be on the current roster, but if he was there's a good chance he doesn't start tonight anyhow.

The Price deal was concluded at noon, and you can't get a player from Buffalo to Toronto in time for a 7pm game?  Is there a really bad tie-up on the QEW that I didn't hear about?

That really stings, Jonny!  Yes, how in the name of Hendrix can I forget about Justin Smoak? 

Presumably the move to make today would be to call up a middle infielder (Jonathan Diaz or Kawasaki) and send down Tepera, along with bringing up Pompey for Carrera.either today or tomorrow.

Yankees have responded to the Tulowitzki trade, acquiring Dustin Ackley from Seattle. Hard to compete with their money & smarts.

snicker

The Jays still have a "high in demand" prospect left to highlight anything else A.A. needs to do (like Kimbrel in SD). Anthony Alford has rocketed through the system and garnered notice from most of Baseball, but especially those who make the decisions. This however, is the last big Trade Piece available, if A.A. needs to go big.

I don't think A.A. rests if he's still after something. Of course, there's still things to do, so I don't think he's ever finished.
1) Devon Travis (2B) is on the DL until at least early September. He was also the best/only option for leadoff-hitter.
2) Smoak hits better than Navarro and plays 1B better than Encarnacion. It's past time he gets more playing time, Navarro can sit more.
3) Left Field needs better Defense and Offense, because it seldom gets both. I just don't think Pompey is the answer, right now.
4) Relief could be a problem as Gibby only trust a few. I like Craig Kimbrel but don't know if he's the right answer.
5) We have Price, Buehrle and issues in the Starting Rotation. Here is where the help is needed most, but what do they need and who can they get?

Think several of your questions are answered. Dickey has been pretty solid and so has Estrada, so they stay and I think Hutchison does as well. Travis hopefully isn't out til September. Apparently he is feeling better today. And I do think Pompey is the answer for LF. Big upgrade in both offense/defense over Carrera.

The Pirates DFA'd Vance Worley today and replaced him with Joe Blanton. Seems odd to me, but what do I know. I'd pick up Worley to provide depth in the pen and injury protection as a guy that can start.

Unless AA has something big up his sleeve still, but I can't see it unless a guy like EE is shipped out.

Price will help, but I don't know if Gibbons can get it done.
There's 2 month left and they're in the hole. It would only take a bit of slump here, one injury there and Gibbons managing to his record.

It should be interesting.

I was struck by Magpies chart a couple days ago showing the abject level mediocrity of this team the last ten seasons at the hundred game mark. It's enough to suck the life out of Bluejay supporters. But given the mediocrity of the division this year and the failed promise of the past three seasons by the club to it's loyal season ticket base, these two trades had to be made.

Also kudo's to the Battersbox "roster" that has stayed together for so long. It's nice to lurk here again and get  such good analysis and debate.

1) Devon Travis (2B) is on the DL until at least early September. He was also the best/only option for leadoff-hitter.
3) Left Field needs better Defense and Offense, because it seldom gets both. I just don't think Pompey is the answer, right now.

How about getting WhiteSox' J.B. Shuck to play LF for Carrera ?

2) Smoak hits better than Navarro and plays 1B better than Encarnacion. It's past time he gets more playing time, Navarro can sit more.
4) Relief could be a problem as Gibby only trust a few. I like Craig Kimbrel but don't know if he's the right answer.

How about a package of Valencia, Navarro and relief pitcher(s) who show closing ability and whom Gibby do not trust for Kimbrel ? This idea is a long shot as the Padres may not like the players in return.

The Pirates DFA'd Vance Worley

I do not know anything but to think of free agent Brandon League who has been a closer.

This seems to me like the kind of price you pay for 1.5 years of Price, rather than half a year. Did Dombrowski actually profit on this trade, just in terms of what he gave up last year (as viewed at the time) versus what he got back this year? In any case, it'll be fun. Go Jays!

TUIB, as pointed out earlier, what we gave up for Price is similar to what the Royals gave up for Cueto.

Consider Norris for Price with Cairo added for the QO acquired draft pick Detroit losses. As for Labourt, sweetener to beat out other offers, despite being a possible Rule 5 draft pick risk.

That seems to leave the 40 roster at 38.

We get about a dozen starts out of Price. I hope it's worth it.

The writers at FanGraphs seem to think it's more than what the Royals traded for Cueto, though admittedly not a lot more. But considering last year's package for Price struck many as underwhelming, while the return for Cueto and Price wasn't, I wonder if getting a guy for a year-and-half is the way to go.

Daniel Norris starts on Sunday for the Detroit Tigers in Baltimore, in what I assume was David Price's rotation spot.

I like Craig Kimbrel but don't know if he's the right answer.

A closer who through his first six seasons has actually been better than Mariano Freaking Rivera? Not sure I understand the question.

We don't need a new closer.

I'm generally not a fan of trading for rental players, but at least we got the best rental player.

Jays are going for it; it's definitely an exciting time no matter how it turns out.

Wow. Was on the road today so just learned about it. Not a fan of rentals but as many said the Jays gained tons of prospects just so they could do stuff like this. Any player who complains now needs to be shown the Door Asap.

I like this article
http://jaysjournal.com/2015/07/30/blue-jays-trade-deadline-rumors-david-price-deal-made-possibly-by-aas-draft-strategy/

In the end, AA's strategy is about acquiring talent. That has led to this moment where he has a lot of pieces to move.

It still seems a bad strategy.

You can sign top free agents and trade them later for prospects before they get expensive.
Trading a draft's worth of prospects for a rental just shows that AA is feeling the heat.

You can go all in with three of a kind and win the hand,  but that's not a winning strategy.

The Jays should at least take a wild card with this and will probably be the favorite in the playoff game, but that's just a 50-60% change of getting into a division series.

Free agents get to choose where they go. Few choose Toronto. Padres are trying to trade James Shields - lets see what they get for him. And at least he's stayed healthy.

David Price has pitched in 6 post-seasons. He has a 4.50 ERA, allowing 40 hits in 40 innings.

Funny, I read that as "David price has been to the playoffs 6 times in an 8 year career". Although if I'm not mistaken it's only been 5 times.

Trading a draft's worth of prospects for a rental just shows that AA is feeling the heat.

Man, does everybody still believe in this 'lame duck' phenomenon as an explanation for AA's behaviour?  Once again, if anyone has ANY evidence that this happens rather than pop social psychology, I'd love to hear it.

As for my own 'pop psychology' - I'm going with the discounting principal, which is what seems to allow everyone to write off other explanations for AA's rolling the dice such as:

-he is doing what he said he would do, and has done, with prospects since becoming GM
-re recognizes that prospects have never been more overvalued than they are currently
-he understands probability and knows that we have potential to play well down the stretch while some of our opposition has been lucky
-he wants to invigorate the fan base that he serves and feels the price is worth if.  If that's too nebulous for you, of course it follows that a spike in ticket sales - as seen yesterday - will affect the teams bottom line.  Presto, more money for FAs next year
-he wants to make Toronto a more attractive target for said FAs, while inspiring his own players

Just because people online keep talking about this 'lame duck' thing, doesn't mean it's an actual thing

If selling prospects for MLB players is the new efficiency than you'd think you'd have seen success of it lately. Except all the teams lately with world series titles built heavily from within. So AA is trying something rather at odds from current conventional thinking. He's really running the Jays similar in ways to the old Yankees teams from the early 2000s. Sell all your good prospects for expensive players and try to win a title that way. All okay I guess but that hasn't really worked lately and we don't have the Yankees money to spend.

Not sure that 'selling' is the right word, but I get your meaning.

 you are talking about the Price deal and not Tulo, i assume?  that Fangraphs article about trading for aces is certainly is getting a lot of play right now, and the track record - zero WS wins from the 21 teams that traded for aces - certainly isn't great.  But the one game wildcard certainly changes the value of having an ace ready for that game.  and 17 of the teams cited in the article made the playoffs - value there too.  even an invigorated team/ fan base - with more ticket sales - has value.  

do you think that AA wants to play the prospects for vets game forever?  i could easily see us getting to a point where homegrown talent keeps our veteran core replenished - as with the Giants, Sox and Cards, the WS winners of the current decade.  and it's not like they all employ the same development model - the Giants are known for overpaying for veteran talent, and Boston has a massive FA budget to go with their fine player development system.

IMO, the cards are the perfect model, but how do you compete with such a successful, storied franchise after 20 years of disappointment and irrelevance?  with a few years of exciting september baseball, I assume that Toronto will once again be a desirable destination for free agents - remember we got Molitor, Winfield, Clemens etc back when we were THE model franchise in MLB.  

"Man, does everybody still believe in this 'lame duck' phenomenon as an explanation for AA's behaviour? Once again, if anyone has ANY evidence that this happens rather than pop social psychology, I'd love to hear it.
"

Well obviously not everybody, since you don't believe it. The evidence you're asking for is impossible to get, unless someone within AA's inner circle starts revealing things the general is not aware of.

Therefore, we can only go based on the circumstantial evidence that we're AWARE of. Last year this team was in a better position at the trade deadline from a playoff position view point. Bautista was arguably having the best year, EE was doing well, Stroman was dealing. Yet he didn't go all in and trade off his prospects. Why was that, did he not have the similar prospect capital to trade from? While overall the offence overall has improved this year Bautista and EE are have down years compared to last. Pitching is down with Stroman out. What's the difference from last year to this year? The most obvious one is that AA at this point doesn't have a contract in place for next year. He may not be around to enjoy the fruits of his labour, all his hard work for naught when a new President is hired and decides to can him.

I'm not sure it's AA trying to save his job so much, as it's he wants to take a shot at playoff success and if he is shown the door by the new President, at least he took his shot and gave it a try. This smells to me as a desperate attempt at a hail mary more than anything else.

It's easy to talk about building, developing through the draft, scouting, trading etc. Having the long term vision, the ability to contend year after year instead of 2-3 year window when you know you'll be there for the long haul. It's a totally different thing when you see your own window as GM possibly winding down and this might be your only shot.

Ben revere makes absolutely no sense to me unless pompey is on his way out. And there's nobody left on the market who I would move pompey for (I don't think).

"remember we got Molitor, Winfield, Clemens etc back when we were THE model franchise in MLB"

And how did we get there? By building the team through drafting and developing the right players. Remember how many people complain about "Stand Pat Gillick"? Well it worked didn't it, only when the team was perennially a contender did Gillick make the trades that put them over the top.

Kasi, you just don't remember the successes. Sox gave up Iglesias and prospects for Peavy. Giants gave up prospects for Pence. 2011 - St. Louis gave up Colby for Jackson. Someone else could go back further, but it's actually commonplace for WS winners to have given up prospects/controllable youngsters for rentals.

"Someone else could go back further, but it's actually commonplace for WS winners to have given up prospects/controllable youngsters for rentals."

Of course your statement is correct, but those team were legit contenders with playoffs essentially locked up. They weren't a .500 team looking from the outside at a WC spot.

You can sign top free agents and trade them later for prospects before they get expensive. Trading a draft's worth of prospects for a rental just shows that AA is feeling the heat. You can go all in with three of a kind and win the hand,  but that's not a winning strategy.

The Jays do not have that much financial prowess comparing to the Angels and Yankees to sign top free agents; prospects to be traded for are not only draftees but young players who have built reputations with their minor league track records. So in my opinion, the described strategy is selling a combined commodity of coaching, time in youth, economical contracts and probably consistent performance for proved and have-been consistent performance. Also, IMO, this strategy needs to be change with respect to growth of players, coaches and whatnots within the organization. The contents of the combined commodity are cheaper in money than which the media contracts provide and supports signing a few top free agents.

Cruzin, i guess the evidence I'm requesting would be examples of other GMs making unwise moves in the 'hotseat'.  Of course, not proof, but still pretty easy to obtain.  Hypobole just listed WS teams this decade that made this kind of trade, although admittedly not with the same level of risk.  Was Beane on the hotseat last year when he dealt for Shark and hammels? 

It's easy to talk about building, developing through the draft, scouting, trading etc. Having the long term vision, the ability to contend year after year instead of 2-3 year window when you know you'll be there for the long haul. It's a totally different thing when you see your own window as GM possibly winding down and this might be your only shot.

I think the Tulo deal shows that AA believes he is doing that - if he was strictly in it for the short term, why also make a risky move with long-term benefits in mind?  Our core is back and will be stronger next year if EE and Jose rebounds (not a certainly, I admit).  If Toronto becomes a more attractive FA target, all the better.  He hasn't decimated the farm here - he's built an impressive core of prospects in part to have currency to make this sort of deal. 

I'm still happy to bet that AA is back next year, new president or not, even if we fall short of the wildcard. 

Dudes enjoy the ride. That was exciting to watch last night.

I feel for many of you. You must be Leafs fans too. And you don't know how to actually enjoy when your team is doing well. It must be hard growing to be disappointed by so many franchises...

I recommend some of you branch out. Stay a Blue jays fan, but maybe try a different hockey team. Buffalo has a good young team. It is a good time to get on the band wagon. :)

St. Louis gave up Colby for Jackson

Rasmus wasn't a prospect when the Cardinals traded him.  He was a player in his 4th major league season; the Cardinals liked Jon Jay at least as much as him and made the move because of this positional strength. If they had traded Jay for an established big-leaguer, then it would have been a more conventional deadline deal...

While not conventional, they did deal young talent for a rental. Of course, the picture's further muddied with the compensation rules being different than they are now.

They weren't the Series winner, but the Royals traded premium talent for James Shield, and that worked out alright (although he wasn't a rental).

I did say controllable young players and Colby was controllable for 3+ yrs when Jays acquired him.

I also think another dimension of that strategy is that the Jays uses MLB resources, reputations, credibility and whatnots to support baseball development in Canada. The Canadians team in Vancouver and Ernie Whitt are staying in Canada. More Canadians and Jays former minor leaguers (farm products) play overseas in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and locally. Recalling discussions to draw more affiliated teams in Canada were present on this website, Ottawa, London, Winnipeg are cities suggested for relocating the New Hamsphire Fisher Cats.

You know what, maybe the Fisher Cats can be relocated to Sherbrooke, Quebec or to Montreal, which both places are close to the border between Quebec and New Hamsphire.

"Was Beane on the hotseat last year when he dealt for Shark and hammels?"

The difference is that Beane had a contending team. ONe leading their division by a large margin. He was looking at strengthening his team for an presumed deep playoff run not gunning for simply a playoff spot. Beane's A's were not on the outside looking in, they were firmly entrenched in a playoff spot.

If you've had a chance to read some of my other posts, I have no problem AA trading prospect capital for short term goals. It's the fact that this team is a .500, if this team was closer to a .600 that their Pythagorean WL suggests they should be, I'd be totally on board no reservations about the trades. So it's not the trades I'm against, it's the timing of them since we haven't solidified our contender status.

The Fangraphs article getting a lot of play specifically looked at trading for aces as rentals.  There have been many trades for less than one year of control non-ace players that contenders (and winners) have with more than zero success doing.  Many were already in playoff positions, yes, but they all identified a weakness that held them back from and they sacrificed quality/quantity of talent that wouldn't help them today for that high leverage incremental improvement on the Win It All Curve.

Yes, the Jays are not sitting in a playoff spot, but they are really close: chasing down 2 GB of a free-falling Twins team, tied with a vulnerable Baltimore team, with the bunch immediately behind basically selling off the season.  Elite offence, good defence, ok baserunning (blunders included), an average if not improving bullpen, a rotation with 3 acceptable performers (pre-Price), and a good (hitting) bench.  How many .500 teams in recent history a series sweep away from the playoffs with ~60 games to go can boast that?  AA identified the weakness(es) and is plugging them with not just 0 WAR players, but elite level talent.

The time is now is ride the Curve.

"And how did we get there? By building the team through drafting and developing the right players. Remember how many people complain about "Stand Pat Gillick"? Well it worked didn't it, only when the team was perennially a contender did Gillick make the trades that put them over the top."

how many jays draftees made up that 1992 team, anyways?

SP: Stottlemyre
RP: Wells, Hentgen, Steib, Mcdonald, Timlin
PSN: Olerud, Borders
BCH: Bell, Sprague, Myers

And if we are trying to assess what AA should consider this team as right now, remember that any comprehensive statistical projection right now would have the jays in the playoffs by the end of the year.

Yes contending teams make a deal of prospects for a vet to put them over the top. They don't however trade away 15-20+ prospects over a 3 year span in a series of 5 mega trades for top vets. That is the Yankees way. I would think we'd have to be pretty good odds to make the wild card game now, but that's an awfully expensive cost to make for a wild card spot. I wish we had done this Price trade last year. If you looked at last year's prospects that were traded for him Detroit barely paid more than what we did now for 12 starts. I also think this trade sets us up poorly for next season, where we'll not have those prospects or Price.

another way to think about this is that AA is ahead of the curve on trading prospects - the Yankee way you cite was always about unaffordable megastars / contracts and the farm system / bottom line be damned. 

But AA has specifically used innovative and aggressive drafting, while spending significantly to upgrade the scouting and FO, to provide himself with the prospect capital to do exactly what he's doing right now.  I don't see this as 'the old way' by any stretch. 

Ultimately, when I hear the "AA is going all in to save his job" meme, I picture Greg Zaun and Pat Tabler nodding slowly in agreement. 

I would have wanted Price last year too, especially at last year's price, though last year's Price post-trade wasn't exactly money in the bank.  Moving on...

Who really knows why we had to wait a year for the Right one?  I'm sure the face that the Rays and Jays share a division play into that, but maybe Tampa Bay didn't like what Toronto was willing to let go.  Maybe management/ownership didn't feel we were good enough to justify the prospect/paycheck costs... or that we were good enough already?  Going 23-29 after July, finishing 5 GB of the 2nd WC, with 4 teams to overcome was the outcome.  Tough to say that Price alone would have made a difference.  Too bad Tulo couldn't play a game after July 19th... who knows if AA would/could have gone All In in '14.

I consider Fangraphs to have pretty comprehensive playoff odds and they currently have the Jays at 49.2%.

And there's no guarantee that, even if the Jays make the playoffs, they'd be able to align their rotation to have Price start the one-game playoff.

Budgetary constraints may have prevented the Jays acquiring Price last year. We will never know for sure and these "constraints" may never have existed, but the ridiculous attempt to sign Ervin Santana with players money sure does point to an ownership that locked the safe once pre-set limits were reached.

"how many jays draftees made up that 1992 team, anyways?"

It doesn't just start with the 1992 team. The point is that it started earlier than that. From 1985-1993, the Jays won 5 pennants and were in contention every year.

To me I'm qualifying players that the Blue Jays developed not strictly drafted, so off the top of my head, add:
SP: Key, Guzman
RP: Eichhron, Henke, Ward
PSN: Gruber, Lee

We know Gillick wasn't the best at drafting, but was good at getting players through the rule 5 draft and identifying prospect trades. Point is that the Blue Jays for the most part developed their players and only went with rental trade route once they were perennial contenders not a perennial .500 team.

What's the difference to this year's post-season aspirations between developing and keep a young, quality MLBer playing and contributing at a high level today vs. trading the same player and getting an older, quality MLBer playing and contributing at a high level today?  Now, what if that young player is a year or many years away from contributing at a high level?  Probably need to trade other(s) along with him to get today's contributor, yes, but then the difference is:

1) Money.  Sure looks like that's not a constraint this time around.  A factor, very likely, but not handcuffing AA like it so much seemed so in the past 18 months.
2) Winning tomorrow.  Tulo obviously is more than just a win-today acquisition, Price is more than likely the opposite.  Norris, Castro, Hoffman, etc. are nice and all, but they were not the only ones in the pipeline, and AA has shown he has a knack in drafting and developing valuable pieces for the future.  Keeping the "right" ones is always tougher to determine, but it's a good problem to have other teams valuing your pre-MLBers.
3) Prospect porn.  'Nuff said about that.

"It doesn't just start with the 1992 team. The point is that it started earlier than that. From 1985-1993, the Jays won 5 pennants and were in contention every year."

that tells me that Stand Pat waited far too long to make the big moves, tbh.

in fact he completely wasted the contention window of that late 80s team by standing pat.

to his credit, he learned from his mistakes, and with the help of the biggest payroll in baseball managed to build a champion out of parts drafted by other teams.

Ugly, we're all have our own opinions. I would say the 85 team could've/should've won the WS. The ALCS changed from a best of 5 to a best of 7 in 85. Otherwise, the juggernaut of the last 80s out of the AL being the As would've been a regular road block.

So no I don't think it was mistake. Had he made various trades for rentals in the late 80s as you've suggested, he might've ran out of prospect capital to make the Cone trade since constantly hitting the road block that was the As would've forced him to reconsider.

Prospects, especially pitching prospects are lotto tickets. Which means that yes its a gamble. If the manager knows enough to trade away assets that won't become good and keep the ones that do than kudos to him. However when it goes wrong like Syndergaard that future value of him alone will likely surpass the value obtained from every player in the Marlins/Mets trade who has played for us.

Baseball doesn't have a cap, but the Blue Jays as a team pretty much do. I think the Jays need to be built like a hockey team, which means building from within and keeping some stars while making sure the cost of expensive vets doesn't take up too much team cap and prevent retaining and signing of young talent. You don't want to be top heavy like Yankees teams of old. AA had a great opportunity with his intelligent signing of Jose and EE to well below market contracts to build a strong team. Instead we paid 20 to Buerhle, 22 to Reyes, 12 to Dickey and hamstrung our ability to sign free agent pitching the last couple offseasons through those deals. Instead we've had to pinch and reach for waiver options and reclamation projects which have rarely worked out.

And to those talking about this is the new way of getting value, show us some proof. Recent world series champions have built from within, with only a handful of players coming from trades, usually just one key one to address a weakness. We barely have any homegrown talent on our mlb roster because we trade it all away and never have sold our older talent to increase our minor league rosters. Hence the eternal mediocrity we're stuck in where we keep getting between 75-85 wins.

cruzin', Gillick had a long long window to learn from his mistakes. he "failed" for a lot longer than AA has.

Ugly, that part I agree with. I wish AA had more rope and wasn't a lame duck GM. IMO the trades for this deadline, if any, would've been different.

Aside from the Syndergaard overpay, which I actually understood at the time even though I disagreed with it, I liked what AA had been doing up until this trade deadline. He put together a team on paper that should've been a contender. Rebuilt the farm system that it had prospects that could help shortly such that we could be contenders year in year out.

His one major failing IMO, has been his choices in managers.

We barely have any homegrown talent on our mlb roster because we trade it all away and never have sold our older talent to increase our minor league rosters.

You are certainly right about this, Kasi - Pillar, Goins, Hutch, Osuna, Loup, Cecil, Sanchez, Tepera - that's it for talent on the roster drafted by the Jays. 

But EE and Jose were major hidden value trades.  (AA was behind the Bautista trade and EE found his value with the current regime) 

Hendricks, Schultz, Cola, Valencia, Smoak, Carrera - scrap heap types. 

Buehrle, Dickey, Estrada, Donaldson, Tulo, Hawkins, Price - acquired for homegrown talent.

Travis - acquired the one time AA did deal away veteran star power with Halladay - with Taylor / Wallace / Gose / Travis (I think i got that right).

Martin and Navarro signed as market-value FAs (and Izturis, alas). 

there are many ways to build a team, and AA's strength is employing them all. 

as for my comments about AA's approach being new - time will tell.  He's the only one really doing this?   thus far, he's rebuilt the farm system (it's still better than under JP), reinvigorated the fan base, appeased Rogers and positioned this team to be great this year and next. 

or perhaps ive been drinking too much of the kool-aid.  

Speaking of prospect porn...4 current or former Blue Jays made BA prospect hot sheet:

2) Musgrove
3) DeJong
11) Boyd
16) Pompey

Pillar and Osuna sure. Goins is a glove first guy who can be found anywhere. Cecil and Loup and Tepera are all very replaceable relievers. Sanchez its still unknown if he'll just be another reliever. No impact players on the team other than Pillar were brought up from within. Look at the Giants, their top 4 position players and top 2 starters are all home grown.

AA's strength is winning 77 to 85 games. There isn't really anything to be said other than that from the history of his time here. That's not a strength, it's just what he is.

New addition... Mark Lowe

I can't believe that the idea of lame duck GM has been floated. If someone's betting on AA being fired then ill take that action right now.

Even if we don't make the playoffs he's shown an ability to draft well, be creative in his approach, and run the tightest of ships in all of baseball.

Just being a "ninja" has tremendous value to an organization but when you look at the whole package a renewal would be a no brainer to me.

Homegrown (8/10): SP Stroman, SP Hutch, SP/RP Sanchez, SP/RP Osuna, RP Cecil, RP Loup, CF Pillar, IF Goins, (RP Tepera, OF Pompey)

Traded For (14): SP Price, SP Buehrle, SP Dickey, SP/RP Estrada, RP Hawkins, RP Lowe, RP Hendriks, SS Tulowitzki, 3B Donaldson, RF Bautista, DH Encarnacion, LF Saunders, 2B Travis, UT Valencia

Signed (4/6): C Martin, C Navarro, 1B Smoak, 1B Colabello (OF Carrera, RP Schultz)

With a new President coming in who will likely want his own guy in there anyway, I don't see how AA's future is not totally tied up in the next two months. If the Jays get there his job will probably be saved, if not than why will the new guy want a GM who traded 6 prospects away for no results?

Jjp if you are drinking the Kool aid then so am I. This is the first regime since gillick that I've had any confidence in. And really, given gillick's "stand pat" mentality I have to say I prefer AA's tendency to give us "holy ish" moments.

That's an atrocious list uglyone. Basically Stroman and Pillar are the only two guys of real worth right now grown from within and one is still a question mark if the results can stick in Pillar and we don't know how Stroman will recover yet. Maybe this is AA's plan? It seems like we have problems developing young talent so better to just trade it all to someone else who can develop it for us.

Why is having homegrown players as your top players important?

1) They cost less, at least until arbitration/free agency.  Means teams with budget constraints can spend money on the rest of the roster.  That means you still spend money though, and the Jays organization has a payroll (capactiy) 20+ other teams would like to have.  What does it matter if that money is spent on your top 5 bats or top 2 starters or your closer vs. the solid #3-4 veteran starters, a good bench guy, the backup catcher, etc.?

2) You can't attract free agents.  Jays evidently have a problem with this.  AA has shown you can force them here at ~market rates via trades for prospects (re: Marlins, Detroit; Mets and A's to some extent).  It's only because the Jays have valuable pieces that other teams will part with the big names.  The hardest part is trading the "right" ones and keeping the "right" ones.

3) Chemistry. Progressing and reaching the majors beside the same guys over many years, especially with opportunities to win together, can help with not just player development, but the clubhouse.  Bringing in outsiders can throw that off... but as just likely they seem to help too.  A wash to me.

4) Marketing.  Though I'm sure Bautista, Lawrie, Tulo, Price, etc. sell/sold lots of jerseys/tickets.

5) Prospect porn.  'Nuff said about that (again).

There is a significant fraction of this site who are not likely to ever be happy unless they are complaining. I wonder if, back in 1993 they were upset that we didn't sweep the phills.

I get it; for the last 22 years that is the only type of person that this franchise has satisfied. But this year is an exception.

Seriously, if you can get excited about this roster filled with mvp/Cy young types, the potential for playoff baseball, and a still tolerable farm system then I'm not sure what will do it.

And now Revere.

Wow.

Ok, the revere move really puzzles me. I'll defend AA on overall track record forever but this seems unnecessary

I assume it is because we have an outfield built out of baling wire and hope.

"That's an atrocious list uglyone."

no, it isn't.

Why is that a good list uo? Very curious. The total war of the position players there is pretty much the Pillar numbers from this year. And its a bunch of relievers and one starter who had one very good year before being injured. Compare those numbers to the Giants or Cardinals or Pirates. Relievers have very little value and Goins as very replaceable.

Would think another reliever would be on the shopping list. Kimbrel and Chapman would be a little much, but it does seem like AA is shooting for the moon this week.

Anyhow, perhaps they can nab K-Rod to solidify the bullpen?

Maybe AA is auditioning for the President job.

"Why is that a good list uo?"

first, because there ia some big talent there.

second, because the "traded for" list is an unbelievable list of talent that we used our prospects to get.

The rider to Price's contract must have been interesting. No word on whether there was a brown M and M exclusion!

"....Just because people online keep talking about this 'lame duck' thing, doesn't mean it's an actual thing...."

Totally agree.  Myths are being repeated endlessly.  Myth #1:  "Anthopoulos is desperately trying to save his job."  Ridiculous and bizarre notion.  If the owners are stupid enough to fire him at the end of the season, he'll be snapped up by another team.  Anthopoulos cares about his reputation, because it's crucial to his career, whether he's in Toronto or somewhere else, so why would he blatantly sabotage the long-term future of the Blue Jays for a brief shot at a short-term playoff run?  Destroying the team's future would destroy his own hopes of a job at any team in the majors.  The notion that he would sabotage his own career, because of some mythical desperation for a playoff spot in 2015, is absurd.

Myth #2:  "Gibbons is a bad manager because his record doesn't match Toronto's pythag."   Really?  Of all the thousands of factors that affect a team's official record at the end of a season, you're going to disregard every factor except the manager?   I understand that some people are desperate for a data point that might help them to argue that Gibbons is a bad manager, but pythag doesn't prove anything.  There are thousands of factors that collectively determine a team's record.  You can't say that the manager is the only factor that explains a team's failure to match its pythag.

Gibbons teams have never matched his pythag in like 7 seasons. Those teams were of all different shapes and sizes. Some were hitting teams, some built around pitching and so on. At some point you just have to look at those numbers and question it. Is it more likely that he just flipped tails seven times in a row or that he isn't good at getting the best out of his team? We've complained that he seems to use his best relievers when up by 3 and his average ones when in tie games. That could possibly relate to his poor numbers there.

China Fan,

Unless you have some mythbuster material to either confirm or bust the myths at you put it, you can't qualify either as a myth. It's strictly you're OPINION that AA is not desperate and that Gibbons is not a bad manager. We have all opinions and are entitled to express them.

We could debate this ad nauseam, but the proof will be the results at the end of the season.

"....the proof will be the results at the end of the season..."

So, according to you, John Farrell is an excellent manager, and the "proof" is his World Series victory.  Because "the results" are the only valid way to measure whether a manager is good or bad.

There was that article/poll that rated managers on ESPN a few weeks back. Of course no one had anything good to say about Gibbons there in response to his managing skills. So if results vs pythag, overall win-loss records, and evaluations from execs/scouts, etc aren't good for evaluating a manager than what is?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13186480/who-mlb-best-manager-survey-says

Apparently Gibbons good points are being down to earth and friendly with the media.

China Fan,

Lol why did I know you would go there. But no I don't think results are the only way.

But let me throw it back to you, how would you judge if a manager is good or bad?

"....how would you judge if a manager is good or bad?...."

That's a fair question, and there's no easy answer.  It has to be based on an assessment of a wide range of factors, from bullpen management to leadership skills to lineup juggling to pinch-hitting decisions.  I don't think there's one or two simple metrics that measure a manager. And I think an ESPN poll would be one of the worst ways to judge if a manager is good or bad.

In fact, I don't think the manager is the key reason for most of a team's wins and losses.  The contact focus on the manager's role is misplaced.  Of course a manager has to be eventually fired because the fans need a scapegoat for losing seasons.  Firing a manager is really a communications strategy and a marketing strategy, not a baseball strategy.

It's a bit like Dickey. His 5-10 record is not a perfect indicator of performance, but it's a perfect reflection of the season he's having.  He's a smart guy who fields his position well, but if that was an average year for him, he wouldn't be in the major leagues. Gibby is now 514-523. Is this team now good enough to bring him over .500? MInd you, Ned Yost is now 891-944. He got kicked out of the Brewers after chocking off big leads in September 2 years in a row. Could Gibby survive losing 11 out of 14 in September?

In all human affairs there are efforts, and there are results, and the strength of the effort is the measure of the result.

James Allen

CF - Did you read the posted survey? They did assess them on a wide range of factors. You say surveying scouts, coaches, FO personnel and analysts is one of the worst ways to judge. What are the better ways?

You're right the manager isn't the key reason for W's and L's. Talented players are and no one is saying otherwise. However by saying firing a manager is not baseball strategy, you are strongly implying the manager is almost meaningless. If that is the case, maybe under-achieving teams should fire their managers more quickly and often since pretty well anyone could be a viable replacement.

I would certainly question the methodology of that ESPN "survey" on managers.  Just 50 people participated in it (a very poor sample size), and some of them were merely "media analysts."  It was clearly weighted in favor of the big-market and high-profile managers and clubs.  For example, John Farrell was in the top 10 in some of the categories -- does that mean that he's one of the top 10 managers in baseball, or is he just one of the higher-profile managers who happens to work for a team that enjoys a huge amount of media attention? 

In any event, even if you give much legitimacy to this "poll" (which I don't), it certainly doesn't even pretend to say that John Gibbons is a poor manager.  It only says that Gibbons wasn't one of the first names to spring to mind when some baseball guys are asked about the best managers in baseball.  At the very most, you can say:  a bunch of baseball-related guys did not immediately perceive Gibbons as one of the 10 best managers in baseball.  To leap from that vague statement to the conclusion that "Gibbons is a bad manager" is quite a leap.

some superb #managing tonight gets the jays a win with our #5 up against the 1st place team's #1.

At the end of the day it's all about results. I think people are pretty good at judging the overall quality of players on a team. There is certainly enough metrics for it. So yeah if the team is bad and the manager gets them to go .500 that IMO is a great coaching job. Gibbons just hasn't gotten the results and that's the clearest indicator he is a poor coach.

"....However by saying firing a manager is not baseball strategy, you are strongly implying the manager is almost meaningless..."

No, I don't think the manager is "almost meaningless" and I didn't actually say or imply that.  I think the manager's contribution is very difficult to measure, and I think the dismissal of a manager is usually done for reasons of public relations -- placating the fans, mollifying the media, and doing something dramatic for the sake of appearing to do something.   But clearly the manager's role isn't meaningless.  It's just difficult to measure and easy to scapegoat.

"....Gibbons just hasn't gotten the results and that's the clearest indicator he is a poor coach....."

But there's a problem of logic there.  If the Jays make the playoffs or even win their division or World Series this year, the "results" argument would imply that Gibbons has suddenly become a good manager, after being a bad manager in the past.  Yet he is clearly the same guy, with the same strengths and weaknesses that he always had.  How is it plausible that he was a bad manager before 2015 and then suddenly transformed himself into a good manager this season?  It just doesn't make sense. He's the same guy.

China fan than what is your explanation for Gibbons poor coaching record, especially measured against pythag. He's had a pretty large sample of games so is it just bad luck? Or teams weren't built correctly. Anyway plenty here have given reasons why we think Gibbons is a poor coach. Curious what your reasons are for the opposite.

"....Anyway plenty here have given reasons why we think Gibbons is a poor coach...."

We should probably do a poll of Bauxites, because I don't think there are "plenty" who believe Gibbons is a "poor coach."  A few people do.  A lot of casual fans do.  But plenty of knowledgeable Bauxites, whom I respect greatly, don't necessarily think that Gibbons is a "poor" coach.  Many of us might criticize a particular decision that he makes, or a particular tendency that he might have, but that doesn't mean that we think he should be fired.  I think you're exaggerating the support for your position.

As for my own view:  I think Gibbons is an average manager, who has been given average players and an average payroll for most of his Jays career, and he has produced average results.  As of today, he has an above-average group of players, and we'll see whether he can produce above-average results.  But so many things can affect the course of a season -- including, yes, injuries and bad luck -- that I won't judge Gibbons purely on the results of this season. 

If the Jays slump in September and lose 10 of their last 15 games and fail to come close to a playoff berth, yes, he probably should be fired.

In the real world, when a department is vastly under performing, changes are made, often including leadership. Is it merely done to placate the higher-ups or is it most often the case of "this is obviously not working, let's try something different because it is crucial that it does work".

"....when a department is vastly under performing, changes are made, often including leadership...."

I completely agree.  In the case of Gibbons and the Blue Jays, I guess we disagree on the definition of the word "vastly."

I don't think you can call this an average payroll. Jays have been top ten the last two years. Which is actually very generous for Rodgers considering we are not top ten in attendance. Maybe it's a case of the team not being built right? Anyway I guess not too much difference between average and poor, I just wish we had a good manager.