Devon Travis leads off tonight.  Danny Valencia in left-field against the lefthander with Encarnacion/Colabello at 1B/DH. 

Were "Castro in the Wind" and "Can You Feel TuLo Tonight" B-sides?

MLB updated their Top 30 prospects, here are the new rankings for the Jays, even after the trade:

1. Daniel Norris
2. Dalton Pompey
3. Jonathon Harris
4. Anthony Alford
5. Sean Reid-Foley
6. Max Pentecost
7. Vlad Guerrero Jr.
8. Richard Urena
9. Rowdy Tellez
10. Alberto Tirado
11. Matt Boyd
12. Connor Greene
13. Mitch Nay
14. Ryan Bourucki
15. Dawel Lugo
16. DJ Davis
17. Clinton Hollon
18. Dwight Smith Jr.
19. Jairo Labourt
20. Dan Jansen
21. Justin Maese
22. Matt Smoral
23. Matt Dean
24. Tom Robson
25. Lane Thomas
26. Nick Wells
27. Carl Wise
28. Andy Burns
29. Roemon Fields
30. Juan Meza

Still A TON of talent. Can trade another 2-3 Top 10 prospects and still have a middle of the pack group with high potential.

I have my Top 10 as:

1. Daniel Norris, LHP
2. Dalton Pompey, CF
3. Anthony Alford, CF
4. Richard Urena, SS
5. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
6. Vlad Guerrero Jr., LF
7. Matt Boyd, LHP
8. Rowdy Tellez, 1B
9. Jon Harris, RHP
10. Max Pentacost, C

I had Hoff, Castro and Tinoco at #3, 6, and 13.

"I Guess That's Why They Call Them The Blue Jays"

lol.

Norris, Pompey and Harris were all in the Top 100. Norris was #25, Pompey #53 and Harris #94.

don't mind that mlb list.

imo i'd slot both pompey and alford above norris at this point. I also think they're a bit agro on Tirado and too low on Jansen.

mine:

(Osuna)
(Travis)
1. Pompey
2. Alford
3. Norris
(Hoffman)
(Sanchez)
(Castro)
4. Urena
5. Pentecost
6. Reid-Foley
7. Harris
8. Tellez
9. Guerrero
10. Boyd

Were "Castro in the Wind" and "Can You Feel TuLo Tonight" B-sides? They were the hidden tracks actually! Like "Train In Vain" by The Clash!;D

The Denver Post gets reaction from the Tulo Trade. Nolan Arenado is not happy about it.

one of the interesting things about this year is how little hype travis and osuna have recieved for absolutely remarkable rookie years.

I mean does anyone even realize Travis is having a better offensive season than rookies like Bryant, Pederson, Correa?

I think Correa is having a better season than Travis. Same with Bryant. But Travis should be the AL ROY

C.Correa: 178pa, .288avg, 8hr, 27rbi, .858ops, 138wrc+, 1.9war, 6.9war/650
D.Travis: 237pa, .306avg, 8hr, 35rbi, .863ops, 139wrc+, 2.4war, 6.6war/650
K.Bryant: 391pa, .254avg, 14hr, 59rbi, .811ops, 125wrc+, 3.4war, 5.7war/650
J.Pederson: 412pa, .230avg, 21hr, 43rbi, .823ops, 133wrc+, 3.1war, 4.owar/650

and of course travis gets injured.

have we ever actually heard what this shoulder injury is?

"Shoulder irritation" according to Buck

they could have easily skipped Doubront this time thru the rotation.

Too bad you can't challenge obviously wrong calls.

Elton John. Jays are playing Phillies. Philadelphia Freedom something something pun pun something. Too hot to think.

How come Hawkins made it but not Tulo?

Hopefully it's minor and they can just give Travis a cortisone shot and then let him rehab in the offseason.

this is a rather pathetic performance.

now Bautista hurt.

this is turning into a disaster game.

How come Hawkins made it but not Tulo?

They need 24 hours notice to restock the caviar on his Jetstream.

Doubront DFA, Tepera option, Tulo activated, Pompey recalled.

my guess

btw, our bullpen is great

The bullpen is just phenomenal as long as the Jays are trailing.

the worst.

I can't believe they lost by one run AGAIN.

Because a one run loss is the worst of their concerns right now...

Just gotta hope Travis' injury is dtd and Bautista just cramped or something.

It's a nice example of a game where the RH tilt of the 25 man roster played a role in a 1 run loss.  It might have helped if Pompey was up with the big club already.  There was (of course) a lot more to it than just that.

Back below .500, courtesy of the lowly Phillies. Injuries to Travis and Bautista just before a bunch of critical series. Pretty gross stuff.

Bautista tweeted that it's just a cramp.

losses to the mariners and phillies take us back down to 4th place. fak me.

Let's see Tulo is still fresh on everyone's mind and the baseball gods decide to smite us with injuries to Travis and Bautista. As I said before, if there's any luck in baseball we're getting the bad version of it.

And to add insult to injury, Syndergaard goes ahead and throws 8 shutout innings of 3H, 9K. Yeah the baseball gods hate us!!

Jose was pretty salty in his tweet. Also read his article before game on losing family with Reyes. Doubt that gets said on just anyone leaving the team. You think he'd be happy about getting the best SS in baseball and a solid reliever, especially losing a guy who has blown multiple games with his defense.

Jose, clearly mad at us for liking the Tulo deal. He just needs time. Give him time.

Well, just a cramp is one piece of good news. Now, c'mon, Shoulder Clutch Travis. A minor tweak with just a day's precautionary day of rest would do wonders towards easing my mind.

Moves like the Tulo acquisition keep us all coming back like drug addicts, even if the high never lasts.

Another great deal by AA.

It would be fantastic to see what he could do if Rogers provided him with a little payroll flexibility.

Dollar in/dollar out (an an annual budget basis) seems to be the restriction he's been working with throughout the season.

"Moves like the Tulo acquisition keep us all coming back like drug addicts, even if the high never lasts."

Actually, I'm starting to think AA might have the addiction problem

RH Power: Addiction, obsession, laser focus... Who can say, really.

Who cares about wins & losses - look at our great run differential, Pythagorean W-L and all the WAR totals we have accumulated at fangraphs - only negative nellies complain about wins and losses.

Man, that Syndergaard guy the Mets drafted can really pitch.

Well, I was thinking that the risk of losing 2 regulars for an extended period would have more bearing on the rest of the season than any one loss, whether it be by 1 or 10 runs. But that's probably just me, thinking of those 61 other pesky games.

Jose, clearly mad at us for liking the Tulo deal. He just needs time. Give him time.

 Jose Reyes was a pretty popular guy in the room. So it's going to take... oh, a day or so. There are lots of millionaire stars who can barely be bothered to acknowledge the existence of some of the scrubs who wear the same uniform. From the reaction of guys like Gose and Pillar, Reyes isn't one of them.

That's Ryan Gose, of course, tonight's shortstop. Not to be confused with Anthony Goins, the Detroit outfielder. Sheesh.

"....How come Hawkins made it but not Tulo?....."

I read an article about Hawkins in which he says he always travels with his passport, so that he is ready to go anywhere, any time.  That's why he was able to get to Toronto so fast.   Perhaps Tulo had to go home to collect his passport.  I suppose Tulo didn't expect to be traded, and -- like many Americans -- he doesn't routinely travel with his passport. 

China Fan's hypothesis seems reasonable. Also, it's possible the Jays just gave Tulo a day to collect his thoughts. Despite the rumours, the trade clearly really caught him by surprise. He's been with one organization his whole career. The club may have given him some time to process the move.

The thing always to remember about player's reactions is that to THEM these aren't 'assets' traded away, they are PEOPLE.

Bautista was probably disappointed that his FRIEND was being traded away, no matter who they got in return.

Bautista was probably disappointed that his FRIEND was being traded away, no matter who they got in return.

I definitely agree with this, which is why expecting an objective response would be naive. Nothing good can come from poking the players who were close friends to Reyes, at least not now while things are so raw for them. They are not viewing the trade as we outsiders are (who don't really care about the chemistry of a .500 team).

Time will pass and this will all sort itself out, as it always does. Everyone will move on. Reyes will do his stupid hand stirring thing in Denver soon enough, winning over a new clubhouse with his personality. And Tulowitzki will find himself fitting into his new clubhouse much more easily than he is fearing after spending a decade in the same place.

And Jerry Howarth, the presumed power broker behind this whole affair, will find himself suitably placated to be able to ward off laryngitis for the immediate future.

Time to gripe about umpiring again. How does something like this get missed (not just by the home umpire, but presumably by the rest of the crew)? I didn't see it in real time, but saw Greg Zaun complaining after the game that he was able to see it from way back where he sits.

It would be difficult to imagine that Howard was unaware of what happened -- he even appeared to grimace -- but he seemed to not miss a beat and started running when he saw where the ball went.

That wasn't a grimace or a flinch from Howard.  He just heard Tiny Dancer in his head, and reacted as you would if you heard your song.

I actually found Bautista's response to be objective. Though the tone of the response was that of one who saw his best friend traded away, his statement that was the move was an improvement, but we need pitching.

Bautista was probably upset and embarassed by that pathetic team performance last night where they lost to the worst team in baseball to take them down below .500 and into 4th place.

It's time to stop all the Jeff Samardzija talk - the White Sox are 1/2 GB the jays in the wildcard race, have fewer losses and a much better rotation - they'll be buying not selling and frankly, are a better bet to make the post season than the jays considering the present roster makeups.

With a core of RHH controlled for the next few years - Tulo, Donaldson, Martin, Travis - I hope the jays have considered selling on Bautista & EE the next few days - I think with the Reyes trade, they wold be willing to move to a stronger contender such as the Cardinals etc.

"Man, that Syndergaard guy the Mets drafted can really pitch."

the problem with that trade is not what we traded, but who.

we most likely could have traded the more highly regarded Sanchez instead of syndergaard, for example.

imo its always a better idea to trade guys whose numbers don't match the hype than those whose hype doesn't match their numbers.

and if course, trading for a 38yrvold knucklebsller is kinda risky.

Agreed on the players feeling they lost a good friend.  I suspect that is why AA made a point of telling Reyes himself rather than doing the Colorado method where Tulo learned via his manager late in the game when the club's GM and owner promised to keep him involved in any trade talks.  Hopefully Tulo isn't too upset about moving to a new country and playing on turf but I suspect that will annoy him.

Says a lot about the difference in front offices and how they operate.  Luckily to the good of Toronto.  Even if it doesnt help win any games it makes one feel better supporting the team when the GM shows he is a decent person.

", are a better bet to make the post season than the jays considering the present roster makeups"

sure they are.

ugly, the comments were pre-game and the phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 with series wins over better teams than us.

wrt Jbau/EE trades, agreeing a deal, then approaching a 10-5 guy midseason to approve, is complicated. a deal like that will happen in the offseason and it will probably be EE.

So, Pitchf/x was used as umpire to call balls and strikes in a professional game two nights ago. OK, it was the Pacific Association of Professional Baseball Clubs, but you gotta start somewhere, right?

I agree ayjackson, but I'd still give it the old college try and I'd try to move both.

ayjackson the "salty" tweet from jose was postgame.

there was nothing "salty" about his comments about reyes. just classy kind words for a friend.

Something has changed this season and I can't pin it down. I think is extremely possible if needed that Bautista and others will be traded, because if you just look at our MLB Top 30, there is very little there that would interest most other GMs, when you consider what A.A needs. Bautista was once consulted/notified on A.A's acquisitions, but not any longer.

Just look at A.A.'s last three big acquisitions, all better to massive upgrades on good MLB players that didn't desperately need to be upgraded. I think this is just the start of what he wants to do and I don't think A.A. is going for it, but rather making his team better. I know he is not done and still a long way away, but one thing you can be sure of is A.A. "is all in." And that's the difference.

I truly believe A.A. will continue to surprise us by doing things we do not expect.

Well kinda hard to know who the guys who will break out and be stars are uglyone. The thing is if you keep trading away all your young pitching prospects you're not going to develop any stars from within, and this is what AA has done to himself with all these moves. He's traded a bunch of lotto picks for more certainty. However in doing that he's given up the biggest reward baseball has, young controllable starting pitching. Syndergaard alone is going to be worth more WAR than every player AA acquired in both the Marlins and Mets trades.

I think Toronto gave away too much in Jeff Hoffman. The long term shortstop issue was one they needed to sort out with Reyes' visible defensive decline. That it happened mid-season, when Reyes was taken out of the dugout and clubhouse, will make it worse and probably also resulted in a higher trade return for Tulowitski.

Reyes was always the first guy out of the dugout to congratulate another player. That's the picture I will remember. He was he most excited guy on the team. Some might find his pot stirring thing silly, but the players didn't. Tulowitski? I'm pretty sure this wasn't his 'dream' landing spot, or in his top 25 choices.

While it's certainly better than the extraordinary proposition of trading Hoffman, Sanchez or Norris for a 2 month rental starter, I think this deal was still too costly. Tulo's not the guy he used to be when we could have drafted him instead of Romero. I remember BP calling Ricciardi's draft a franchise altering mistake the next issue. While Tulo will likely be somewhat of an offensive upgrade and a definite defensive one (when he can play, let's not forget this is not Cal Ripken) I'm pretty sure who the players would rather have on the team with them. And giving away Hoffman to do it was too much. Perhaps we've been hit coming and going. The franchise was negatively altered when we didn't draft Tulo when we should have, and we've overpaid for him with the team negatively altered now.

gotcha, ugly. you mean the "for those that acutally care" tweet. that was legendary. we should beg Jose's foregiveness for o'er hastily moving on from our departed. :)

Tulo's last two seasons were both 5+ war. Sure he started off this season poorly, but he's been back to normal the last 2 months. I think its a good trade because getting +40 million of value from Tulo and losing -20 million from Reyes is a good thing. As for Reyes and the clubhouse, sure he's an exciting guy but I wonder how excited players were every time he threw away a game with another costly defensive gaffe. I'm guessing most on the Jays will get over it pretty quick once they play with Tulo. Maybe not Jose though, but he seems to think at times he should be the GM here.

"Well kinda hard to know who the guys who will break out and be stars are uglyone."

difficult, not impossible. syndergaard and Stroman and osuna's numbers and stuff both said they were elite SP prospects. i'm not surprised at their success. i would never trade any if these guys.

the rest all have had enough question marks to make them very tradeable....especially if another team values them as elite.


"The thing is if you keep trading away all your young pitching prospects you're not going to develop any stars from within, and this is what AA has done to himself with all these moves."

has he?

Stroman
Osuna
Hutchison
Norris
Sanchez

(Boyd)
(Reid-Foley)
(Harris)
(Hollon)
(Greene)

(Labourt/Tirado/Borucki/Perdomo/Espada)

You forgot Smith and Wells. ;p

None of the pitchers you listed are as good as Syndergaard. Not even Stroman. Also wouldn't mind having DeSclafani or Musgrove right now. Plus who knows whats going to happen with those listed players in the next few days. Norris might be gone by tomorrow.

Osuna's numbers in 2013 (prior to TJ) and 2014 (after it) did not scream top prospect.  It was his stuff that was very impressive, and his record in short-season ball (well prior to the TJ) is only of some relevance.  If you look at the numbers only, Hoffman is a far better prospect now than Osuna was at the beginning of this year.  There is, of course, more to it than that.

I recall some saltiness from Bautista at last year's deadline, too, except in that case it was in response to a lack of moves.  At the time, it prompted me to wonder just which of his teammates he wanted to see shipped out to make room for reinforcements - I guess I can now eliminate one name from that list.

Osuna was a highly regarded prospect, even made Top 100 lists. Take age into account too. When he pitched in the Mexican league, he was 12 years younger than the average. In Bluefield, Vancouver, Lansing, he was 3.5, 4.3 and 3.8 below league averages. Look at Hoffman, only a year younger at High A this season. Hoffman, IMO, is more hyped than any pitcher this year based on his results in the Cape Cod League prior to his Senior season. His results, this year, is rather meh. Yes, he's coming off TJ surgery, but I think AA sold high on Hoffman. Same with Castro.

"None of the pitchers you listed are as good as Syndergaard. Not even Stroman."

Disagree entirely.

Osuna is far ahead of where Syndergaard was at the same age and alreaey has a deeper arsenal, and Stroman was every bit as good as a rookie (and in both AAA and AA) and has a much deeper arsenal which bodes well for him going forward as hitters adjust.

Uh yeah agree to disagree there, especially on Stroman. I'll take the healthy guy who is 6 inches taller with the better fastball. Osuna could match him, but no guarantee on that now.

I don't disagree, finch.  All I was saying is that the numbers don't tell you much in these cases.  There are many different opinions, and frankly trying to find someone who is consistently right in their opinion about the quality of pitching prospects from scouting information alone is pretty much a vain pursuit.  It's easy to say that a pitcher who has overpowering stuff and dominating numbers (like Tim Lincecum or Roger Clemens in the minor leagues) are great prospects. Everything else is hit and miss.
 

I don't agree that Osuna is right now ahead of Syndergaard.  Durability is very, very important.  Syndergaard's arm has been fine.  It has stood up to 133 innings in 2014 and 115 innings so far this year (and going strong).  At this point, Osuna has shown that he is an effective reliever with the repertoire to be a good or better starter.  Syndergaard has shown that he is a good or better starter, with the possibility of throwing 200 innings every year.  Durability was the primary reason that I preferred Syndergaard to Sanchez a couple of years ago. 

"Osuna's numbers in 2013 (prior to TJ) and 2014 (after it) did not scream top prospect."

oh they absolutely did. especially when age is factored in.

First Osuna managed a 2.97fip in A- at age SEVENTEEN, which is awesome.

Then he got off to an incredible start as an 18yr old in Lansing the next year:

7gs, 33.1ip, 33.1k%, 3.9bb%, 2.43era, 2.83fip

just unbelievable for an 18yr old in A ball....and then he hurt himself the next start, and tried to pitch through it for 2 more starts afte before shutting it down. His last 3 starts:

3gs, 9.0ip, 18.4k%, 12.2bb%, 17.00era, 6.89fip

After returning from injury, his strikeouts came right back but unsurprisingly took a few outings to sort out his command:

Gms 1-4: 11.2ip, 25.0k%, 13.3bb%, 10.03era, 5.62fip

he quickly got right back to his dominant self....as a 19yr old in A+:

Gms 5-7: 10.1ip, 36.6k%, 2.4bb%, 2.61era, 2.33fip


and now this year, incredibly, he's one of the best RP in mlb at age 20.


Make no mistake - aside from a tiny handful of outings immediatel before and after TJ surgery, Osuna has put up better numbers than any prospect we've had in a long long time.

And FAR FAR better numbers than what Hoffman has ever put up anywhere.

"I'll take the healthy guy who is 6 inches taller with the better fastball."

Is that Aaron Sanchez or Kevin Gausman?

Well I was thinking of Syndergaard. Anyway the point is if you keep trading away starting pitching prospects you're going to miss on chances to come up with the next Verlander or Kershaw or Kuechel, etc. I agree with what AA did in the Donaldson trade, trading 2 pitchers away who although they were good did not project as guys who would excel in Roger's center or in the other ballparks in this division. Hoffman I can understand if they think that he's not going to match his lofty projections, but I would in no way if I was AA ever trade away a Sanchez, Syndergaard or Osuna until I know they're not working out for me.

Also wouldn't mind having DeSclafani or Musgrove right now.

Kasi, you are as persistent with 'don't trade minor league pitching' as CyberCavalier is with Matt Hague, or MyLegacy with single malts - and I think I agree with both of them over you.

Can we please at least set the Happ deal aside?  Dude was worth 1.8 WAR in Toronto, which includes lost time due to a fluky injury, for around 10 million bucks.  Wins are worth about 7 million dollars last time I checked.  Add 2 million bucks for the difference between Happ and Saunders salary, and the 2.9 million we are paying Saunders right now (doubless partly insured) and we are just below market cost on wins, with two fluke injuries.  surely those injuries can't be the fault of the org that trades prospects for vets?

the contracts of Lyon / Carpenter (the Jays end) and Cordero / Francisco (houston's vets acquired) are pretty much a wash.  Lyon was good for us in the pen, Carpenter stunk in his 3 games.  negligible impact.

5 prospects went to Houston - two (carlos perez and dave rollins) were unprotected on the 40 man (as they would have been with us) and are currently a tolerable third string catcher and a lousy rule v pick.  Asher Woj made his first three big league starts at 26, stunk, and is a non prospect.  Kevin Comer is about to turn 23 and struggling in high A ball.  Which leaves - Joe Musgrove.  12th prospect in the deep Houston org, his a legit arm - 22 years old, tasting AA with some success for the first time.

Are you telling me that you wouldn't trade ONE mid level prospect for JA Happ and Michael Saunders, at reasonable market value and with two fluke injuries behind them? 

would you ever trade prospects?  I know you are okay with Tulo, but is that it as far as legit prospect for vet moves?  How do you build a team with only prospects?

When in God's name is this site going to get over the Thor trade?

I get it, he's good and he was once in our system.

But the thing is that we traded a pretty good, but not elite at the time prospect for a reigning Cy Young winner who signed a reasonable deal that he has essentially earned (at least in WAR/$$). Everyone knew the cost was high, but on paper our team was going to be in the playoff hunt for a couple of years that was clearly worth it. Dickey hasn't been incredible but he also hasn't been the problem the past couple years.

Yes, the deal didn't work out, as trades often do. But if you want a team that is going to try and go over the top when they are close to the playoffs (I for one do) then there are going to be Dickey/Synd or Loaiza/Young mistakes along the way- even if you build from within.

Also, do you think that, just maybe, that it might be possible that the mets played a role in his development? There's no guarantee that he would have followed the same development path in the system.

Happ was a guy you can get on a one year contract. There is plenty of those that come up every year. And right now it looks doubtful that Saunders will ever amount to anything with his injury history. So yeah in the end Musgrove just might have been better.

I'm clearly not against trading prospects, but I think you need to be pretty selective in it. All those guys we traded in the Miami and Marlins trades got us well not a whole lot of value. And the cost of those players prevented us from signing some reasonable FA contracts since. And lost us a future all star in Syndergaard.

My opinion on trades is you only do them for controllable stars or minor 1-1 trades where you're doing small upgrades. So yeah Donaldson good, Tulo hopefully good, the rest not so much. Basically if you read Bluebird Banter my opinion is not too different from Mjww, who is a very smart analytic poster and someone whose view I respect.

I feel a lot of these trading the future trades just don't work out. Young pitching is very much a lottery effect. Only a very few of them work out, but if you trade half of them you're going to lose your share of the good ones. Why can't we be like Tampa who has homegrown a bunch of starting pitchers out of their system? (or St. Louis) If Tampa had our payroll they'd destroy us with how they develop players, and as it is they've still had a lot more success than us.

Trading two star prospects for a near 40 year old knuckleballer coming off his career year was a colossal mistake. The Marlins trade has worked out mostly okay thanks to Beurhle, but the Mets trade was horrible.

I have a hard time getting over the syndergaard trade simply because i'm convinced they would have taken sanchez instead, and i was always convinced that noah was the much better prospect and one of the elite prospects on basebsll at the time.

but you'll never hear me crying about fungible backend guys like Desclafani graveman nicolino woj etc.

"Maybe not Jose though, but he seems to think at times he should be the GM here."

And the Umpire... He is a man of many talents.

"Why can't we be like Tampa who has homegrown a bunch of starting pitchers out of their system?"

interesting given that none of Archer/Smyly/Odorizzi/Karns/Ramirez are from their system. the only homegrown SP they have are the injured Cobb and the corpse of Moore.

Jays' rotation now and next year includes all of Stroman, Osuna, Hutch, Norris, Sanchez, Boyd in some capacity.

Cathal Kelly has a trade related story in the Globe today. He portrays the clubhouse yesterday as a morgue and says no one welcomed LaTroy Hawkins when he walked in. It sort of explains yesterday's listless loss and the players bad mood. I hope its better today as I will be there to welcome Tulo to TO.

For every Syndergaard, there is 10 that didn't amount to much. Even Alvarez is looking like a bust.

For the next 4-5 years, Tulo and Donaldson will be the core of the Blue Jays lineup. I can live with that!

Where Castro and Hoffman, they will probably make the roster. They might even be middle rotation guy. Servicable. They might even become a #1 rotation guy for the Jays. But it is highly unlikely that they become a top 10 pitcher in the league.

I look at what KC traded to get two rentals and I am sure happy that the Jays didn't do that.

"How do you build a team with only prospects?"

You can't. It's impossible for the most part. I think AA has found the latest inefficiency in baseball, which is prospect value. It seems prospects never reach their potential (Generally observation vs. data analysis) and the perceived value never matches the outcome value. Before, it was the Type B Free Agent Relief Pitchers that netted extra draft picks. Struggling teams need hope; they need hope to sell to their fans so this market inefficiency will never probably change. AA trusts his scouts and player development and has a good understanding of the probability of those more likely to success vs. their expectations. There were rumours that AA turned down Justin Upton for Kyle Drebek and Travis Snider and since then, I can't and won't get too too attached to prospects. You have to trade prospects in order to build your major league team. I love what AA has done thus far in trades. Yes, the Mets trade sucks BUT if he hits a home run on every trade he makes, then no one wants to trade w/ him.

And even though I don't like overvaluing prospects, please don't trade Alford. He will be a special player. First Division All-Star.

When players asks for a trade to improve the team, they're talking about trading prospects to upgrade a starting pitcher.

Latos traded to Dodgers. Archer with a no-hitter through 6.

Further bulletins as events warrant.

Yeah they got those players uglyone by trading older guys (like Shields or Garza) for the young unknowns other teams had and turning them into stars. Instead we do the opposite, trading away our young guys for older players on the decline. Yet any time people bring up trade an EE or another established player its always complaints about "why trade away our stars, we need them!".

I don't trust anything Kelly writes. He writes to get a rise out of people and make stories out of nothing.

Very much disagree with you finch. Most of the successful teams from recent built a lot from within (like St. Louis) or a mix from within and acquiring young players in trades (like San Francisco) Most sell the farm deals for single players just haven't worked out and those teams have not had success. (also the article on Fangraphs the other day that no team who has bought a mid season rental has ever won a World Series)

I'm thinking the Rays would be better off with Price Shields and Zobrist.

I don't like the Mets trade either, but that's the outcome not the intent. The strategy was a good one, AA just picked the wrong "ace" -- who knows if he had another choice.

"And lost us a future all star in Syndergaard."

Maybe, but relax... I wish no ill for him, but don't jump up and down. Young pitchers will break your heart.

Prospect pr0n is rife on the interwebs, I'm kind of tired of it and it probably is a market inefficiency because the return is so variable. It is not quite as bad as buying lottery tickets, but it is close. I used to feel differently back in the days of baseball cards there was something magical and special about this kid with just a funny headshot who was a "rated rookie". These days, meh. Someone is always the next something -- wake me when the do a little of this and that.

No no-no for Archer. Jose Iglesis, upon seeing a grooved fastball, chanted "to all the hurls I've loved before" and spanked a single. For the sake of my lame narrative, it was a fastball. I have no idea.

I agree christaylor that young players are lottery tickets. However if you trade away all your tickets you're never going to hit the jackpot.

Lets look at the Giants who are one game out in the west and have won 3/5 of the last World Series. Posey drafted by them, Panik as well, same with Crawford and Duffy. Their top two pitchers in Bumgarner and Heston also drafted by them. Their top 6 players by fWar all drafted by them. Who do the Jays have that we drafted? Maybe we just suck at player development as well, but if you trade away a bunch of your young prospects they're never going to develop.

Kasi, I'm not saying just at the trade deadline for rentals. I'm saying trades in general, like the offseason trade for Donaldson. Prospects are overvalued currency in MLB.

I read all the postings defending AA and Gibbons and I wonder - how come the jays are the only team in the division not to make the playoffs in AA's tenure regardless of revenue, not even a meaningful game in Sept. - remember how the Orioles were a laughingstock when LaCava turned their GM job down, or posters here used to say at least were not the dreadfull Pirates/Royals/Astros. I've liked AA's approach to young talent acquisition and development but his 2012 winter season was dreadful, he's spent money poorly, failure to fix the BP over his entire tenure and his hiring and inexplicable retention of Gibbons means a most likely pink slip if no playoffs this year and I won't have a problem with that.

"Who do the Jays have that we drafted? "

Stroman
Hutchison
Osuna
Sanchez
(norris)
(boyd)

Travis
Pillar
Goins
(pompey)

oops. remove travis.

Still completely disagree with you finch given the recent results of teams making and winning the world series. Those teams built heavily from within using own prospects.

Uglyone Travis technically is not drafted by us, but is a player I like how they acquired. They traded Gose for him straight up as a good change of pace trade for both and traded from a position in CF that they had strength in to one they were weak in at 2b. As for the rest that's a nice start but many of those players are struggling and/or injured.

Rays self drafted players

Cobb
Moore
McGee
Colome

Longoria
Jennings
Kiermaier
Beckham

Kelly's column was a terrific read, really enjoyed.

Uglyone, A- usually refers to low A full-season ball like the Midwest League.  Short-season A ball refers to leagues such as the Northwest League.  Prior to this year, Osuna had succeeded in short-season ball at age 17 pre-surgery.   Hoffman has succeeded in high A and double A ball at age 22 post-surgery.  Without knowing anything about stuff, I would generally prefer the latter profile.  That said, given what Osuna has accomplished this year and his stuff and composure on the mound in the major leagues, I'd rather have him now.

In my view, generalities about prospects tend to obscure important subtle points.  Their acquisition and development (and sometimes dealing) is pretty clearly important to an organization.  It is definitely both art and science.  

Yup, but as you said in your last post with guys they've acquired from selling expensive vets (aka Archer/Smyly/Odorizzi/Karns/Ramirez)

Who do we have that we've acquired like that? Oh yeah no one. Because we only sell young players for vets or do 1-1 trades like Gose/Travis (and that was pretty rare for us). Instead we make do with players like Rogers, Villueneva, Happ, etc and we know how well most of those have worked out.

Articles out there that the Jays are prepared to go all in to buy Price. If they can work out an extension than sure that's fine, if that's a rental though I'm done with them. Doing that trade would cost us Norris, Pompey, + more.

Cathal Kelly has a trade related story in the Globe today. He portrays the clubhouse yesterday as a morgue and says no one welcomed LaTroy Hawkins when he walked in.

I read that. The article was pretty vivid in its depiction of the player mood.

It's not just drafting, it's the general acquisition & development of young talent ( such as Travis ) something the Rays are good at doing - look at the return they got for players that are becoming expensive - Kazmir, Garza, Price, Shields, Myers etc.

"When in God's name is this site going to get over the Thor trade?"

I will never.

I remember my brother was Sunnybrook Critical Care (he is better now). I read on MLBTR that d'Arnaud was rumoured in the proposed trade. I thought that was ridiculous. My other brother then said to me that Syndergaard was just added to the package. I said "No Way". When the trade went down, I was almost sick.

I hope everything works out and we win multiple WS. But, I think the trade set our franchise back substantially. Everything was going well - payroll flexibility, heaps of prospects - until AA tried to 'go for it'.

I still enjoy following the team, and I read BBox daily. But several times a week, I think about what could have been.

Just watching the Tulo intro on Sportsnet. I love this guy already.

Absolutely.  The way he crushed the Romero question basically means I'll be a fan for life.

Young Talent

Rays

Starters: Kiermaier 25
Bench: Souza 26, Beckham 25
SP: Archer 26, Smyly 26, Moore 26, Odorizzi 25
RP: Colome 26, Ramirez 25

Jays

Starters: Pillar 26, Travis 24
Bench: (Pompey 22)
SP: Stroman 24, Hutchison 24, Sanchez 22, (Norris 22)
RP: Osuna 20, Hendriks 26

Doubront dfa....who will start Sunday?

Well, the Felix Doubront Era is over, as he's the one sent away (DFA'd) to make room for Tulowitzki.

still don't understand why they didn't skip doubront yesterday.

Quality of the Rays list is much higher.

and i think most evaluators would still rank the jays' system ahead of the rays.

"Quality of the Rays list is much higher."

Is it?

It's definitely older. Counting 26yr olds as "young" was pretty generous to them.

Bench: (Pompey 22)

To change from Elton John to something more in keeping with the weather, how about this?

Jose Reyes is batting in the 2-hole today behind Blackmon. Got a hit in his first AB.

"Uglyone, A- usually refers to low A full-season ball like the Midwest League. Short-season A ball refers to leagues such as the Northwest League."

you sure? iirc both B/R and fangraphs designate short season as A-, and low a as A...and have for as long as i can remember.


"Prior to this year, Osuna had succeeded in short-season ball at age 17 pre-surgery. Hoffman has succeeded in high A and double A ball at age 22 post-surgery. Without knowing anything about stuff, I would generally prefer the latter profile. "

Osuna's post surgery performance in A+, given K rates and the performance trajectory, was far more impressive than Hoffman's imo. And that's even ignoring that he was 3yrs younger, which obviousky can't be ignored.

I've been wondering if it might be better to keep Norris and deal Hutch instead, although I'm probably in the camp of whichever gets you more, deal that guy.  Hypothetically, what would people be willing to add to either Norris or Hutch to land Price (presuming he's available?)

As someone who has been responsible for the introduction of senior management into organizations over the years, I can say that if the Kelley article is correct then Gibbons needs to be fired. Its your responsibility as senior management to ensure that the welcoming of new people is handled professionally no matter how popular/unpopular the move is among staff. It's also reflective of poor internal leadership among the players - someone needed to step up and make clear among the group that they needed to distinguish between feeling sad for losing a friend/family member and not properly welcoming the new addition. All may be well in a few days but that reaction is very telling on the leadership (Gibbons and the core players) qualities of this group.

I rank the Rays higher because of the pitching. I think the hitting there is pretty much a wash. Neither of the teams have many hitting prospects doing all that well. But we have Stroman (which is a bit of an uncertainty coming off injury) and Osuna (great as a reliever but no idea as a starter) and they have Archer, Orduzzi and Moore (who is also coming off an injury but was great before). Plus although a bit older they still have McGee. Norris and Hutchison are still too much in the way of wild cards right now.

I agree wholeheartedly with Nigel. I've not boarded the Fire Gibby Train before, but the Kelly report (to the extent accurate - I would agree caution is warranted here) paints a pretty sobering picture of a team whose leaders are off the rails. Someone needs to be held accountable for the players being allowed to behave in that manner.

Moore was mediocre before, awful since. McGee is pushing the concept of "young" a bit too far.

and in what universe is Travis "not doing all that well"?

Yeah I've not been impressed with Bautista and his leadership abilities. The tweets aimed at management and his poor conduct in regards to umpire's calls. Not saying that he's not right in regards to the umpires, but he needs to take it more professionally. He has been a bit better this year. He is an extremely smart guy so its possible he just thinks he knows better. Wouldn't be surprised if he ended up as a GM someday.

The world where he keeps getting injured? I'd kinda be happy if he could stay on the field. Anyway it seems rather odd to exclude people like McGee, Forsythe, Guyer, heck even Longoria just because they're 27-29 and not 24-26. I don't really know enough about the Rays minor leagues to know how they rank in comparison to the Jays.

If you listen to some posters here, you would think the jays had won 3 WS in the last 5 years!

For what it's worth, Marcus Stroman set exactly the right tone in his tweets on the trade.  He expressed his gratitude and affection for Reyes as a teammate (and particularly commented on his ability to smile and laugh), and at the same time appropriately welcomed Hawkins and Tulowitzki. 

Valencia in left-field and Carrera in right-field and no Smoak in the lineup with a RH pitcher going.  Bautista is DHing presumably because of the injury and Pompey is in Buffalo, and so another sub-optimal lineup takes the field. 

"Anyway it seems rather odd to exclude people like McGee, Forsythe, Guyer, heck even Longoria just because they're 27-29 and not 24-26."

does it?

should we include Donaldson (29) and Tulo (30) in the young group too, then? Smoak (28), Saunders (28), Cecil (29), Loup (27), Schultz (29), Tepera (27), Goins (27)?

"If you listen to some posters here, you would think the jays had won 3 WS in the last 5 years!"

just like those amazing model Rays!

Well, Kasi, you have to use a definition for 'young player' somewhere as a starting point, no matter how arbitrary. There are two general desires for young players: first is to have controlled talent playing at the minimum so that you can use your budget in other areas. The second is to have talent that isn't fully developed yet so there's upside. McGee or Longoria don't fall into either category.

Oh, also, I'm with you on the denotation of "Low A" as "A" and "High A" as "A+" and advanced short season leagues as "A-", uglyone. I mean, it's not universal, but that's the most common way I've seen it, and that's how my brain's always going to interpret it without qualifiers to the contrary.

If you listen to some posters here, you would think the jays had won 3 WS in the last 5 years!

If you listen to other posters here, you would think the Jays have lost every one run game played in the league since 1947.

Valencia in left-field and Carrera in right-field and no Smoak in the lineup with a RH pitcher going. Bautista is DHing presumably because of the injury and Pompey is in Buffalo, and so another sub-optimal lineup takes the field.

Yuck. And the worst part of it is that it probably means there's a good chance that management thinks there's a strong possibility that Pompey will be dealt.

To listen to some posters here you'd think the 2015 Blue Jays have the best run differential in the league and have a mediocre record primarily because of dumb luck.

Oh. Sorry. I guess it's not dumb luck, it's the bad pitching or bad management or not enough left-handed batters.

Nah. Dumb luck.

Yeah I expect Pompey to be dealt as part of a deal for Price and for us to still not make the playoffs. Then I'll happily watch as they fire AA (and Gibbons).

I'd be very disappointed and surprised if AA pulled that type of move. We are currently 8 games out of the division, with two teams between us and the first place team. 6 games out of either wild card slot, with three other teams in between us and a wildcard. Trading Norris or Pompey for a rental in those circumstances is lunacy. I would't even give up Boyd.

What a cheery perspective.

I guess I should have been clearer with my Pompey comment: If he is dealt I'm confident it will be for good value. But I dread him being dealt because I like him and want to keep rooting for him. And because I think Carrera/Colabello/Valencia in left field is a clown show.

Jays are reported as being all in on bidding war for Price. Also Cameron today said he thought most likely for Price to end up here. I think its at least 50/50 that he gives in to a bad deal to pick up a rental.

We should put Osuna in the rotation.

Yeah i'd really like to hold on to Pompey and alford. the rest are fair game.

If we traded for Price, I'd feel sorry for the new GM as the cupboard will be empty much like when JP got jettisoned.

yeah poor new gm would be stuck with a roster with 3 or 4 mvp candidates, no longterm commitments, and oodles of young talent.

Stroman 24
Hutch 24
Osuna 20
Norris 22
Sanchez 22

Harris 21
Reid-Foley 19
Boyd 24
Greene 21
Labourt 21
Tirado 20
Perdomo 21
Espada 17


CF Pompey 22
2B Travis 24
RF Alford 20
1B Guerrero 17
DH Tellez 20
C Pentecost
SS Urena
LF Smith 22
3B Nay

UT Lugo
OF Davis
IF Gudino
C Jansen

+ sweet crop of IFA


and elite talent Tulo, Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion, Martin all on easily tradeable contracts and nobody else signed for term.


poor new gm. he's screwed.

If they traded for Price than Pompey, Norris and one more (lets say Reid-Foley) would all be gone. And yeah you're giving a lot of credit to guys in A ball or less. We'd have gutted our major league ready prospects for a rental.

Encarnacion is unavailable, so guess who draws in against the righty?  If you guessed the defensively superior switch-hitter, guess again.

I thought I wouldn't have to read posts by trolls on this website, but clearly that's not the case...Gibbons as a target I get, but harping on Tulo and Syndergaard...c'mon.

6 games out of either wild card slot

Huh? The Jays are 2.5 games behind the Twins for the 2nd wild card.

Oh and if AA trades for Price as a rental he should be fired.

Sometimes I feel as if 50% of Jays fans actively get off on the Jays losing, so they can bitch and complain and be "right".

No....ownership should prohibit the deal before it is finalized. Wondering if the real reason for trouble in the Dodgers/Marlins deal is that Dodgers want to get out of it to go after Price.

I very much doubt we're in on Price unless the "price tag" is surprisingly low. Would we be able to offer him a QO after the season? That could make it more worthwhile

I expect that we'll acquire another pitcher, but more in the tune of a #3 starter. Rotoworld has mentioned Tyson Ross being a "primary trade target." That being said, I don't believe many of the reports coming out right now. AA has a reputation as being willing to make a big splash, so his name will get thrown into different mixes by the different hacks claiming to know the facts.

He's likely signing for more than Scherzer. Do you think Rodgers is going to pay 200 million for him? I think not. Ross would be a pitcher I'm happy with parting with Norris for, although I'd still like to keep Pompey.

Price, a rental, for all our horses and our kingdom? I say be gone foul stench!

I'd love Price, but the price will be way too dear for a rental. Price for the right price - I'd delight in - but - that - ain't - gonna - happen.

AA will not get an expensive rental. Every follicle in AA's hairy body will want to make a move like he's done for Troy - namely - he'll pay - for the right guy(s), BUT - he (they) must have the right amount of control.

Do not despair little ones - AA will (wisely) do nothing before he blows the farm without making us a multi-year contender. Oh you of little faith.

If I'm wrong - I'll lead the passing out of the pitch forks. Two prongs or three?

If 84 wins gets the 2nd wildcard then we have a good shot. The 2nd WC may even get to the WS and win it.

Faint-hearted fans/Trolls love to complain about the R.A. Dickey trade, and with selective tunnel vision ignoring most else from the time. The Defense was basically underachieving (poor), sometimes in a big way. The Offense was very selective, but in no way consistent. The Top Stud Pitcher from Miami forgot how to pitch, and that currently, years later, hasn't changed. The two Quality Pitcher in-house were huge disappointments.

And Dickey and Buehrle? Two solid durable Pitchers of 200+ Innings pitched. The Jays, at the time, were good enough to get into the Postseason, if everyone pitched to their career averages (decent numbers, but not great) because better wasn't needed, just be good enough.

"If they traded for Price than Pompey, Norris and one more (lets say Reid-Foley) would all be gone. "

a comparable to the Cueto package would have been Sanchez, Boyd, Labourt.

Yeah I don't see him doing an expnsive (in talent) rental. Goes against his modus operandi, and I don't think he's the type to sell the farm to try to save his job.

However, it will be interesting to see the players' reaction if he doesn't pick up some more pitching talent. Player comments on the Tulo deal were very tepid, and not just because Reyes was popular. Apparently when asked the question "are the Jays now better", many players refused to answer, EE said "i don't know", JB talked around the answer before basically saying it didn't fix their pressing need, Donaldson basically said we'll see, and Dickey gave a complete non-answer.

Can't say I am surprised as the players are just focused on getting to the playoffs this year, and like me they may be doubtful the Tulo trade alone will make more than a Small difference. Hopefully that's enough, but with the current starting staff, I doubt it.

funny thing about 1B - smoak has done most of his damage vLHP (228wrc+) and has been his usual league average self vRHP (105wr+).

Cola has been great against both RHP (128wrc+) and LHP (154wrc+).

Jays don't need 5th starter until Sunday, so I think AA may wait until Friday to try and get the best value - I'd say we end up with someone along the lines of Mike Leake and don't sell the farm - he's a solid pitcher and with the jays improved defence should do just fine.

for the record, I don't mind the Tulo trade at all - partly because I was never a big fan of Jose Reyes especially his poor defence and I never felt he was a smart ballplayer, partly because I've always loved Tulo & wanted him(or Jay Bruce) in 2005 while some here vigorously defended JP's selection - I would not have given up Hoffman, but may have included Norris.

grjas - they were being respectful to Reyes.

They know full well how awesome Tulo is. They aren't idiots.

as Bautista said today "you can't talk about trading a former allstar like he's some A ball player".

for the record, Norris is universally considered a better prospect than Hoffman.

I'll say the jays end up with Tyson Ross and Mike Leake

I like Leake.

Ross not so much.

The Reyes trade was all about the Defense, plain and simple, no matter how A.A. dresses it up. He didn't lose on Offense, which made it better.

Subsequent Trades will address basic issues or better, so I don't expect much, but I do expect something.

When in God's name is this site going to get over the Thor trade?

First things first. Have to get over the Michael Young trade.

Bautista today:

I'm extremely excited to play alongside Tulowitzki. If anybody doesn't think I am, they're a fool.

I gather Bautista was upset at the reaction to his reaction.

"didn't lose on offense" is putting it....mildly.

I suggested batting Tulowitzki leadoff - I didn't think it was actually going to happen. (It's probably just because Travis isn't playing.)

Tulowitzki's never started a game hitting leadoff. The only time he's ever batted in the leadoff spot was in his rookie year, in a game he entered in the sixth inning.

Why isn't Edwin playing?

Jammed a finger during BP.

Just brainstorming here, but does anyone know if the velocity of the pitch has any influence on platoon splits?

It is curious that Smoak is sitting today in favor of Colabello. However, Jerome Williams is a junkballer type, with no pitch really approaching 90MPH (as far as I've seen anyways). I tend to agree with Gibbons' decisions so I wonder if he's up to something. Maybe platoon splits are reduced when the pitches don't touch 90 MPH. Just a theory - might be something good for someone at Fangraphs to work on.

Related stat: Both Colabello and Valencia have base hits.

for whatever reason this bloody website won't allow me to cut and paste quotes from media sites. Anyway, the comments from a number of the players went beyond simply sad about Reyes. Some are not convinced this changes the team that much this year, a totally different reaction than to the Donaldson trade.

Anyway, let's see if there are any more rabbits in AA's hat...provided they're not expensive rentals

With Travis likely going back to the DL for a while I see even less reason now to buy a rental. Hopefully AA agrees and either makes a cheap deal or a deal that sets us up for next year.

Whoa. This guy's good.

the players aren't morons. they know exactly how much better tulo is than reyes.

heh. cue the HR.

Well for one he's not a completely awful SS. He is just getting worse and worse each year. He'd probably still end up with about 2 war this year. Second they wanted a pitcher because that is the biggest issue with the team.

But they don't realize for the most part that improvements help wherever they are. And they likely overrate Reyes because he used to be great and he's a nice guy. Although I wonder how many times he had to choke games with his defense before they realized how much he was hurting them.

the only idiots who don't get how good tulo is are a bunch of insane depressed jays fans.

the players know exactly how good the best SS of his generation is.

If you listen to some posters here, you would think the jays had won 3 WS in the last 5 years!

85, is there any move you like that the Jays / AA  has made? 

If Dickey keeps this up the Jays will pick up his option.

"didn't lose on offense" with this deal, eh?

Tulo is winning the fans over at least. Not too bad a first game.

players look real depressed that reyes is gone.

This team has way more strut in their step than the one I saw in Seattle on the weekend! Welcome Tulo! This guy is going to energize the team down the stretch.

Ross pulled from his SD start after 83 pitches with a comfortable lead. Alford pulled from the Dunedin game within minutes with MiLB citing leg injury and Wilner saying dehydration.

Interesting times.

When in Zep's name is this site going to get over the Thor trade?

Good trades, bad trades, you know I've seen them all.

In his 11 starts since the beginning of June, Dickey is 3-5, 2.96 (3 Tough Losses). His K/W is 49-24, and he's allowed just 5 HR in 73 IP (which has generally been his biggest problem since leaving the NL.) He seems to have become what the team was hoping for from the guy when they acquired him in the first place. Better late than never, I guess.

Tulo earned 0.3fwar today.

Dickey did this slow-starter thing in 2013 as well. If he can keep it up our chances are much better.

Hamels to rangers.

williams + alfaro + others

comparable to 2 of Pompey/alford/pentecost+

The knuckler works better in the heat than in the cold. Or so I'm told.

Phillies get Jake Thompson too.

wow.

Amaro did great work here.

we would have had to give up hoffman/norris + Pompey + pentecost/alford to match.

Well, the Phillies are also subsidizing quite a bit of the contract through taking on Harrison ($28M) and paying cash on top of it. That could be approaching Half Off Hamels.

People always look at trades win\lose. If AA always won the trade, then nobody would trade with him. It needs to be something where everyone is happy.

Toronto has the best Shortstop in baseball now (and 3rd baseman)

Colorado has three good pitching prospects that have good potential and Reyes.

Everyone won.

What I am really excited about is next year when Romero, Buerle and Dickey come off the books. Who are the Jays going to fill the rotation with.

Also, I really hope they don't do a rental player this year because they need Norris, Sanchez, and Stroman for next year. Not all free agents want to come to Toronto BTW....

It appears to seem like that possibly Alford was allegedly pulled in the 7th inning of tonight's game in Florida.

I don't know, I see a lot of quantity, I would have preferred more quality - Alfaro's bat has really struggled to come along raising questions for me if he can be an everyday guy & Harrison is a lot of offsetting money and he may never be back fully healthy - I actually like the Texas side of this deal - pair Hamels with Darvish next year.

And after an out was already made, too.

Well, I think it's more likely the jays pick up Dickey's option, he's a 200 innings guy.

never mind. Apparently, he didn't drink his Gatorade.

The way Dickey has pitched lately I have to think the Jays keep him. Especially if Buehrle is gone. This will be a challenging winter for AA where the rotation is concerned.  Stroman Dickey then cross your fingers.

they gave up much more for hamels than we did for tulo.

and tulo is younger, better, and cheaper than hamels.

and the rangers are further from a playoff spot even while significantly overachieving their run diff.

jerjapan,

I'd say I give a thumbs up to about 75% of AA's transactions including the just concluded Tulo deal, but I'm not a yes man and AA hasn't won anything and that's the bottom line.

No Question for me, the Rockies made a much better deal.

by getting less for a better player?

Tonight I connected my surround sound system's 5 speakers, then disconnected the front left, center and front right speakers.

Saw Tulo, listened to the game with no commentary just the sounds of the park from the "back" surround speakers...what an experience..it's literally like being at the game.

Stroman Dickey then cross your fingers.

Stroman, Dickey, then three things icky?

"....I'll happily watch as they fire AA (and Gibbons)..."

Since you are enthusiastically cheering for the Jays to lose, why do you bother posting your comments on this site? It's really getting boring for the rest of us.  You admit that you want the Jays to fail this season, so you should be posting on the fan sites of the Yankees or Red Sox or whatever.   You've posted dozens of negative comments in the past few days.  You are clearly wishing for the Jays to fail.  It's tedious for the rest of us to read the same simplistic predictions of failure, over and over again.  You're not supplying data for your viewpoints, you're just repeating the same old phrases about "colossal mistakes" and "not making the playoffs."   Repetition is not a substitute for data.  You don't win debates by simply repeating the same phrases over and over. 

Meanwhile, here is a data point to ponder:  while you have been flooding us with dozens of negative comments, the Jays have quietly moved to within 2 games of a playoff spot.  That's bad news for you, but it's actually good news for the rest of us.

Phillies got a haul for Hamels. Pitchers have a lot shorter shelf life than hitters. I agree, I like the trade for Tulo more than Hamels.

I am very happy about the Tulo debut today. I would be alot happier if he was not lead off and Travis was.

No rentals AA! We need arms for next year. If we hate this rotation this year, we will hate the rotation next year when Beurhle, Dickey and Estrada are gone.

What are the chances of the Jays resigning Estrada and Beurhle?

That's really not a fair characterization of Kasi's comments, China Fan. It was predicated by a hypothetical trade transpiring that takes media rumor mill, assumptions and exaggerated extrapolation over the past trading history of the GM to operate independently of rumor (with one exhibit just over a day old) and a definite valuation of years of control. Build that on a prospect love that looks borderline fetishistic to me, and the subsequent desire for AA and Gibbons to walk the plank makes sense from a fan perspective. Grating and needlessly negative right after a good trade for a great shortstop in his prime? Yup. But not full on schadenfreude.

"you don't win debates by simply repeating the same phrases over and over." - but that seems to be your modus operandi.

BTW, who died and made you king of this forum.

Speaking for myself, I like a wide range of opinions and viewpoints - that's what makes for a healthy discussion. I like and appreciate Kasi's comments even if I don't always agree with them.

and man i can only imagine the outcry if jays had coughed up more prospects just to get more salary relief in return, like the rangers just did.

on another note - i apologize for losing my temper earlier tonight. Just a little frustrated at jays fans complaining about landing one of the best players in baseball in his prime for a few non-elite prospects.

Did you read the post? If they trade for a rental (and there were several reports out that they were going all in for Price) than I'd call for his firing. I'm also hardly alone in thinking that Gibbons should be gone, not to mention I wasn't all that excited about his rehire in the first place. Why not go over to BluebirdBanter and read posts there from some pretty smart fans who also have the same opinion if AA goes in for a rental. I was very worried about the Tulo trade when it was thought the third piece was Pompey, but was fine with it once it was Tinico.

Anyway I am a Blue Jays fan. I am not a manager of Blue Jays fan or GM of Blue Jays fan. I want the Blue Jays to get to the playoffs. Considering that every team in our division has made it recently I'm kind of getting tired of the Jays not getting there. I think that both deals made in 2012 were mistakes that set us back years. I am not alone in this opinion. Go read on BBB analysis by Mjww who has gone over the deals and convinced me quite well they were mistakes.

I posted plenty of examples of stats, it's just clear like usual you just run your sunny support to whatever the Jays do and just hope it works out fine. I posted about the article that no team who has ever bought a rental mid season has ever won the series. Or went over teams like the Cards and Giants that built from within and have success to show for it. That is how you win now, not by trading for players in decline and not by trading top prospects for rentals.

If you read my posts the negativity is not about the Jays as a team. It is about Gibbons and how his record has always been mediocre (a viewpoint shared by many here) and to a lesser extent about AA and his spending too much building from trades for old players rather than building from within. So please separate my criticism of how people are running the Jays from the Jays team. I love the team but I feel the people in charge of the team are not helping the Jays win.

And about that two games, that is for a wild card spot. We are way back in contention for an actual guaranteed series. I don't see this team as very well setup to win a one game matchup on the road against a team like Houston or the Angels. Trading for a player like Price will give us about 1 win worth of value between now and then, while the players we give up for that would be worth far more. Price would help us for sure in that one game, but it's not a gamble I'm willing to endorse.

Anyway your comments don't make sense. I'm a Canadian and love Canada, but I can't be critical of how Harper runs it? If I am critical of actions Harper does that means nothing in my loyalty and love of my nation. Your kind of spurious argument is like conservatives in the U.S. where they take being critical of people in political office as disloyalty to the country. It's not. What I want is what is best for the Blue Jays (aka first getting to the playoffs and then hopefully winning a World Series) I just have serious doubts that the people in charge are capable of building a Jays team to get there. They are however extremely good at getting us between 77-85 wins though.

Not sure if that's a compliment or not spiff, but thanks all anyways. :p Anyway my simple belief (and shown for the most part from recent champions) is the good teams build from within and then use a trade maybe to fill in a last spot. I think AA is learning, especially with his recent comments about trading for quality and valuing team control. Donaldson and Tulo are good examples of this.

We've not seen him go in for a rental yet but there is a lot of pressure out there from fans and from his own players to get that big rental pitcher. I have concerns that some players on this team will quit if they don't get that big name in the next two days. I believe that would be a mistake and it would make a run at playoffs next year (which is have to think we're favorites for winning this division) that much harder. I'm sorry for being a negative nancy but I don't think getting one Price or Cueto or whatnot brings us over that hump. I do sincerely believe that Gibbons is a poor manager and the team could be doing better with other options that were out there.

"....Did you read the post? If they trade for a rental...."

I read the post very carefully. You said that you "expect" the Jays to trade Pompey for a rental.  Then you said you would "happily" watch the Jays miss the playoffs and fire their GM and their manager.   You didn't phrase it as a hypothetical possibility -- you were clearly predicting a rental deal, an overpay, a failed season and the firing of GM and manager.

Of course we all welcome diversity of viewpoints. But on Monday you were warning of disaster in the Tulo trade and now you're warning of disaster in a Price trade.  Personally I find it over the top. 

I think the manager in baseball is not as important as other sports. In the end, the pitchers have to pitch, the hitters have to field and the fielders need to field.

We can blame Gibbons all day long. The Jays don't have the pitching. Unless, we give Gibbons a bionic arm or something, there is not alot to do.

They Jays have to top offense in baseball.. by alot! Are we praising Gibbons for how he is handling the batting order? No. Our defense sucks.

I also think AA has done a decent job. We traded away a million prospects in the past year (as a fan, i find very interesting BTW.) Some players have busted, but there has been some real excitement around here the last couple years. To top it off, the cupboard is not bare. The jays have a couple rookies contributing this year, the jays had a couple last year and the jays will have a couple rookies contributing next year. Considering we are trading away "all our prospects", I thought the minor league system is contributing pretty good.

To top it off.. We have the best 3B and SS in baseball!!!!

As a baseball fan, I love watching these guys play. I am big fans of Travis and Pillar. I like Martin's attitude. We could use a real LF\1b, but all the options for that are doing pretty damn good. I am also very excited to see Beurhle, Hutchinson, Sanchez and Osuna pitch. (ok, we can use some more pitching to be excited about)

The Jays are not the Maple Leafs. There are some really good ingredients here. I feel that they are two good pitchers away from being a really good team. Call me a homer. But, I enjoy watching this team play. That is alot more than I can say about many of the Jays teams since they last won the world series.

In the spirit of uo I am sorry CF for being overly heated about how I view the direction of the team. I would please suggest to keep things civil and to not make anything personal. I think in my last two posts I made very clear the difference in opinion I have for the team I love vs the people who run it.

Here btw is the FG link to the results on buying an ace.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whats-happened-to-teams-that-traded-for-aces/

I am however fine with AA buying a 3/4 who costs us a lesser prospect or spending top prospects for a controlled pitcher. I am just very heavily biased against rentals.

CF here is my post.


Yeah I expect Pompey to be dealt as part of a deal for Price and for us to still not make the playoffs. (This part I am sad about) Then I'll happily watch as they fire AA (and Gibbons). (This part I am happy about)

I would be sad they missed the playoffs. I would be happy they fired the current leadership. I am also sad you misread my post and took it as an opportunity to make a personal attack on me, but like bj85 said I guess you're the boss around here.

Not really a compliment or an insult (the fetishistic comment was a fun way to make the point of prospect overvaluation... It was either that or prospect porn). I don't agree with your position or assumptions, especially when mixed with previous comments on the Happ deal (where the prospects that were dealt were former 'lottery ticket' styles that had seen their value diminish (Musgrove from shoulder trouble if I remember, and Comer and wojciechowski both had their stuff back up (doubly bad for Comer, since he was a projection bet)) along with others I can't remember off the top. All that leads to losing your head like it's the French Revolution and you're all out of cake. It doesn't mean you inherently want the Jays to lose, though. I'm sure you'd be happy to be proven wrong (both for the cost of Price, or his acquisition at all, and the Jays winning). I'd be happy, too. :)

And, man am I glad this series is over so we can get a new thread going tomorrow that isn't a scroll through 200 downerisms.

I'd be curious spiff what you think the best way to build a World Series team is. I think the sport has moved away from the Yankees buy a title plan, but there is still debate over what the best way actually is.

The sounds the best.

Get more talent than most or all of your opponents. Whether by hook or by crook, draft, IFA, trades or free agent. Tie yourself down to an ideology and you miss opportunities

conservatives in the U.S. where they take being critical of people in political office as disloyalty to the country.

Boy is this way off. Conservatives in the US consider being critical of political leaders to be both a civic duty and an entertaining bloodsport, not as a sign of disloyalty to country.

That Fangraphs article on renting aces is interesting, and I take this perspective from it:

There are deficiencies that the rental cannot make up for, at least normally, mostly, directly, and tangibly.  Scoring runs, making defensive plays, warming up the right bullpen arms, etc. I hazard to guess many ace rental traders failed to get deep in the playoffs beyond the immediate control of the rental.

Obvious is that teams that have less deficiencies outside the new #1 (or #1a, #2+) that pitches in 1/5th of the games.

Case-in-point is close to our fading memories, but still warms our hearts: 1992 - Blue Jays - David Cone.  It's about as extreme as reality gets: trading for a near-ace rental starting pitcher to boaster a middling rotation, good enough middle relief to get to a deadly 1-2/8-9 punch, with a top (2) offence, serviceable bench, average defensive players + elite Devo (and Manny) to actually Win It All Today at the expense of almost the entire hall of fame-considerable career of some guy named Kent.

I think this year's Blue Jays compares pretty darn well to that '92 incarnation: even better (greatest?) offence, better (hitting) bench, more above average fielders, deeper bullpen (though likely weaker at the end), and comparable starters.

I'm now convinced we just need to determine the future HOF-ish 2B and go get a Cone-like pitcher.  Can Travis still be traded?  I jest, but you know... FFF.

My favourite comment: "Or maybe the playoffs really are just a crapshoot."  So, why not get there and see what comes?

what you think the best way to build a World Series team is

My unsolicited opinion - for any team not named the Yankees or Dodgers, I think the best way is to patiently stockpile young pitching prospects and hope 3+ emerge within a 1-2 year window to form a strong basis for a rotation. I'd have loved for the Jays to pursue a "rich-man's Tampa Bay Rays" approach and was mortified when both the Mets and Marlins deals were made (which coincidentally is when my interest in the team began dwindling). I think trying to shortcut the process before you have that strong, young pitching base is very risky. Since the Jays aren't exactly poor like the Rays, they could then a) afford to keep these home grown pitchers and b) make the kind of aggressive trades that we've seen the past few years.

Yes, it's exciting the Jays have the best SS and 3B in the majors. Yes, the offense is fun to watch. But I don't think this gives the team the best chance at the kind of sustained growth that leads to a multi-year Championship window.

This has been particularly frustrating for me since I think AA really does extract great value in trades. It may not have been Donaldson, Tulo etc., but I have faith that had he pulled these kinds of triggers after an established rotation of Stroman, Syndergaard, Hoffman, Hutch, Norris or whoever, he'd have done just as well in rounding out the roster with position players.

For a couple reasons I still think the real target here is Shields, from the Jays perspective.

1. I just don't see Anthopolous anteing up for a guy who will likely make 8-9 starts and then bolt at season's end. He's still David Price, and he'd look terrific starting a wildcard game, but it flies in the face of the precedent set by the Jays F.O.

2.  Shields is 34, and is a shade below career norms this year but could be had for far cheaper since the Jays would likely pick up his contract. With Buehrle, Dickey, and Navarro off the books for next year, his contract fits the Jays budget.

If the Price is say Norris and Pompey for Shields, I'd do that.

Some may take simple pleasure in the best offense in baseball opening a can of whoopass on an opponent, for other's the thrill of acquiring an effulgent star player in a trade, has a certain "je ne sais quoi". But for me, the greatest delight is to point out how much better the Devil Rays are, and to muse about the time Gibbons ran over my dog.

But I jest.

With the elite reinforcements now rolling into Raccoon city,  trolls, naysayers, and merchants of doom, prepare to be crushed remorselessly under the wheels of the Blue Jay juggernaut as it cuts a horrid swathe through the American League. Let's. Go. Blue. Jays.
Yeah!

Thanks to Spifficus, CF, TuiB, and Uglyone and many others for fighting the good fight (And where's Named for Hank when you need him?)

That was one heck of a first impression. Looking at the highlights from last night's game, I noticed the play that Tulo made going into the hole and getting the force at second. Reyes would not have made that play. Instead of runners on first and second with one out, with the possibility of a meltdown, there was a runner on first and two outs.

With the Tulo deal, you can begin to see what the post-Bautista/EE future will look like in Toronto, if either of them don't stay in Toronto past their current contracts. If need be, the Jays can build their lineup around Donaldson, Tulo, and Martin.

I'll be curious to see what happens this week. AA is under tremendous pressure from his current roster and fan base to try and acquire a starting pitcher right now, but doesn't want to empty the farm system for a rental. For what it's worth, I don't like the idea of trading Norris, Pompey, etc., for a slightly increased chance of winning the wild card. But just about everything that AA has done has surprised me, and most of what he has done has worked out. (Even the Dickey deal hasn't been a total bust: he's been a disappointment, but he's still here, and he just pitched eight innings without allowing an earned run. It's not like he's Mike Sirotka or Mark Lemongello.)

Dr B, I'll admit I had to look up the meaning of the word "effulgent" ( radiant, bright ). Thanks to you, Battersbox not only keeps me informed, but also increases my vocabulary. And, by the way, our new shortstop certainly made an effulgent debut last night !

I have a hard time believing that we would be trading for a rental unless it's on our terms.

By that I mean that we don't move more than one top 15 prospect or there is a strong indication that we will sign the player to an extension.

If it's a true rental I expect it to be mike Leake for a Nay/Labourt type. I'm still hoping for Andrew cashner and could live with Shields although I worry about mileage there.

I also wouldn't rule out an august deal for someone like Haren, shields (or anyone else who might clear waivers) if we stay close.

If the Price is say Norris and Pompey for Shields, I'd do that.

If Anthopolous traded either one of those for a 33 year old pitcher with an albatross contract and a 94 ERA+ he should fall on his sword. 85 rightly compared the July trade deadline desperation to the off-season free agent desperation, where Toronto blog posters enviously salivate over every bad free agent signing. Sandoval for almost a 100 million? A must have. Hanley Ramirez for about the same? We should have doubled it. Shields for $75 million? How could we have missed out?
,br> I suspect the Shields contract is one that San Diego will be stuck with for the next 3+ years.

Comments like this make me wonder why one would bother watching sports.

It seemed to work out okay.

I am very confident in saying I don't think AA is touching that Shields contract with a 10 foot pole.

Shields contract is pretty close to the Buerhle deal, and that seemed to work out okay.  And by okay I mean "fantastic". 

I actually think Shields makes a lot of sense, because he probably costs you very little in prospect capital.  Lots of talk he's an August trade candidate because nobody will touch the contract.  Considering Buerhle's money coming off the books, Shields ability to pitch in the AL East, and the fact you can force him to come here for 3 years, I actually think it's not a bad idea.

CbDC,

I agree that the quoted price to pay for Shields is way too high, but disagree that Shields shouldn't be a target. He's only on the books for 3 more years at Beurhle money and should be able to put up similar results.

His xFIP is in line with previous seasons at 3.30 and his ERA is inflated by a seemingly unsustainable 18% HR/FB rate.

I think SD would dump his salary fairly cheaply, which is why I might be interested in him over Ross or Cashner. (Though I generally prefer the latter two.)

"If the Price is say Norris and Pompey for Shields, I'd do that."

That'd be an awful price to pay IMO. You'd be trading away the top 2 prospects for either
1) 1+ years of Shields if he performs, since he has an opt out
2) OR 3+ years of Shields of being a drag on the team payroll, if he underperforms.

Sorry given those as being the outcomes, I'll pass

"you can force him to come here for 3 years"

you can't since he can opt out after 2016

Yep, Shields has negative trade value. Which is kind of why I like the idea. He's the only top pitcher out there that you could get for nothing. You can keep Norris and Pompey and get Shields. Maybe you have to give up Boyd or someone like that if San Diego kicks in significant money. That said, the opt out clause makes the contract so bad that I wouldn't blame Anthopoulos for taking a pass.

I wonder if some of the discussions with SD haven't been around obtaining both Shields and Ross/Cashner. I imagine SD is desperate to get out of that contract and get back to normal SD levels of spending. I really don't think it will cost much in prospect capital to get Shields.

What if we got Cashner and Shields for Norris, Pompey/Alford, and Hutch?

Rolling with Beurhle, Shields, Cashner, Dickey and Estrada this year and replace Dickey/Estrada with Stroman/Sanchez next?

I really love the innovative ways the Dodgers are using their financial clout.

TUIB, if the contract has negative value, the opt out clause has positive value. I see the opt out clause as inconsequential. Opt out? Okay we'll spend the $21m for your 3 WAR elsewhere.

No, the opt out is a definite negative for the team. You get all the downside risk with limited upside.

What downside risk? You said the contract has negative value. The downside is he doesn't opt out then?

Again, I see the opt out at inconsequential.

That'd be an awful price to pay IMO. You'd be trading away the top 2 prospects for either
1) 1+ years of Shields if he performs, since he has an opt out
2) OR 3+ years of Shields of being a drag on the team payroll, if he underperforms.

Excellent point. The opt out makes the prospect price quoted even more disproportionate. That is one hard deal to get much for.

The contract has negative value because of the opt-out. Or that's what makes it clearly negative -- it might be slightly negative just with the remaining years and money, though I doubt it, especially at the trade deadline.

Because of the opt-out clause, you lose him if he's good next year, and you're stuck with a terrible contract if he's bad. (Worse than Ricky Romero's maybe.) Obviously the former would be preferable to the latter, but that's what I'm saying: limited upside but lots of downside.

I'm a huge Shields fan so I'll always be in favor of getting him, and would have loved to see us sign him to that contract.

Of course, the first year of the deal was supposed to be the most valuable, and the latter years the painful ones, so I'd agree that the price should be moderate....though saying he has negative value is likely a stretch (i.e. he'd still likely get a contract in the range of 3 x $18m if he was an FA this offseason).

Shields is a long shot to significantly outperform $21 million. And if he does, we get 1+ years of Shields significantly outperforming $21 million. So not too worried about the downside. I"ll take my 7 wins and $21m off the books and move on.

The underperformance risk is there without the opt out clause.

and the last thing I'll say about the Tulo deal is I think a bunch of jays fans will be embarassed at their reaction when they see what kind of player Tulo is.

getting him for the prospects we did is pretty incredible.

I wonder if getting rid of Shields' contract would lower the price on Ross.

Ross + Shields would be a sweet add.

that's me agreeing with you, AY.

In that case, you get the likely two best years of his contract for $20m next year and whatever the cost is this year.  Even better.

Invoking Ricky Romero to bash James Shields in any fashion seems just kinda weird to me.

Travis being dealt shouldn't probably be dismissed out of hand.  If a capable 2B is coming back along with an SP upgrade, that actually makes a lot of sense.

Ross seems to be reporting the most interest, which means the price is probably highest there.  At this point, I'll take whichever of Cashner/Ross/Shields comes cheapest (in prospect value), and if one of them comes with Venable, so much the better.

That said, if SD really wants to salary dump, they'd be asking for buyers to take Gyorko along with an arm, which would be a problem for the Jays and their finances.

I have two questions:
1.  is there any benefit to a potential trade partner if Pompey stays longer in Buffalo?  I don't see it, but I might be missing something.  He has 27 days of service time.  At this point, if he plays the rest of the season, he probably won't be a Super 2 qualifier, correct?
2.  is there anything published on the dollar value of a win in 2015?  Fangraphs published something after the 2014 off-season, which suggests that it was $6-$7 million.  I am wondering what the data for 2015 was for comparison purposes.  It has, of course, been rising over time. 

I believe the $6m figure was actuall from a few years ago. There's no official update but I've read that the value was closer to $8m this past offseason.

to bash James Shields

Good grief. I've actually been recommending we trade for him! With any pitcher (here I go bashing the whole lot of them!) on a big contract, there's going to be downside risk. And this is a big contract. Bigger than Romero's. The flip side, usually, is that you get the upside. Opt-out clauses destroy the upside.

Re. your second question, Mike, I was looking for that same thing earlier this year and couldn't find it. The latest seems to be the 2014 information you cited.

I don't think they want to trade pompey or are trying to boost his value, tbh. He's had 12gms back in AAA and I think next time they call him up they want it to be the last.

Mike, 27 days service time would put him back to early July, which would certainly be unusually late for a Super-Two cutoff. I think you're right that this is not an issue.

My bad - I had missed that you had been advocating dealing for him (it's been hard to keep track with all the comments flying around here who is advocating for whom).  And my comment was more "I can't believe I'm hearing "Ricky Romero" and "James Shields" in the same sentence".

I guess I don't see how an opt-out clause destroys the upside.  The upside is the Jays could acquire a pitcher they could really use for this year and next, and if he performs so well that he can land a bigger deal at age 35, more power to him - the Jays would have gotten 2 excellent years for a reasonable price, and could allocate the money elsewhere.  And the opt-out clause and contract, if it is indeed depressing his value, means all the more upside for the Jays, since less prospect capital would need to be surrendered to get it done.

"In that case, you get the likely two best years of his contract for $20m next year and whatever the cost is this year. Even better."

Huh, say what?!

On one hand you're saying u can the plus side of a potential trade was keeping shields for 3 years. Now you're saying it's even better that we trade our 2 top ranked prospects for 2 years less of Shields. In what world does that logic flow properly between the 2 statements that make them consistent? Decide what you think shields is, is he simply short term or a longer term acquisition target?

And no you aren't getting the best 2 years of shields, you're getting a potential 2 month run at a playoff spot plus next year. For a combined 10+ years of control of our 2 top ranked prospects.

I wonder if AA might take another run at Carlos Carrasco.

"since less prospect capital would need to be surrendered to get it done."

Except that your previous post said it's even better that he has the opt out clause. Since you saw it fit to trade Norris and Pompey for 3years+ of shields. And it's even "better" that he has opt out, that means you are fine with trading Norris and Pompey and perhaps even more since it's "better" not worse according to your previous post.

IF and when AA makes another run at a pitcher, it's one we haven't heard one rumour about yet. That's the way he works. Carrasco, Price, Cashner, Ross, Shields, Leake, Samardzija or anyone else rumoured...won't be them.

I'm thinking more along the lines of: Shelby Miller or Jimmy Nelson; someone young and controllable w/ upside. Or a vet that no one has mentioned liked Hisashi Iwakuma from Seattle.

I never said we'd deal our 2 top ranked prospects for Shields.  The whole point of acquiring him was that he'd cost less in prospect capital, to the point that some are considering him an August trade candidate. 

You are reading someone else's comments and attributing them to me, apparently.  I've never said give up Pompey and Norris for Shields.

My first comment on Shields started with:

"I actually think Shields makes a lot of sense, because he probably costs you very little in prospect capital."

I don't know why you are turning that into "Norris + Pompey".

If Norris and Pompey are included in the same deal, it better be for Sonny Gray.

Thank you for the responses.  I have a vague recollection of seeing something along the lines that uglyone describes about "close to $8 million per win" in 2015, but I can't find anything online.  Perhaps it was an offhand comment without actual research...

Here's how to think of Shields' contract. He was signed this off-season by San Diego, which presumably means no one else was willing to offer him that contract. On top of that, the contract was backloaded -- $10M this year, $22M the following three years. So if no one but San Diego wanted the whole contract, no one (probably including San Diego -- heck, they're trying to trade him) wants the final three years. Never mind any prospects, teams don't (or "didn't" in the off-season) want the contract.

Then, on top of all that, there's the opt-out, which amounts to Shields saying, "Pay me $66M if I'm bad/injured, and pay me $22M if I'm good and want to walk after a year." And, of course, he's only walking if the contract, at that point, is team-friendly -- what we otherwise call upside for the team.

Now, one proviso to all this is that he has put up a good year this year, which for someone his age was no sure thing, and that will make teams more comfortable with the remaining three years. That's why I'm doubtful the contract does have negative value -- at this point, especially with the deadline coming, some team may well be willing to trade something for him. But it couldn't be a lot, which ... well, that's where I agree with you, Jevant: Not having to trade prospects makes him attractive. It's essentially like overpaying a guy in free agency.

That's why I'm doubtful the contract does have negative value -- at this point, especially with the deadline coming, some team may well be willing to trade something for him...

Oh, shoot. I meant to say the $66M/3 years part probably isn't negative. With the opt-out clause, I think the contract as a whole is indeed negative. Either way, though, the point is you shouldn't have to give up much to get him.

It was a lot of fun to be at the game last night, lots of action and of course Tulowitzski. Tulo hit those three balls hard, all of them, they were rockets.

It's interesting to check out the Blue Jay salary commitments for 2016.  They so far have $40 million in committed salaries and options on Bautista (at $14m- surely exercised), Encarnacion (at $10 m- probably exercised if no trade) and Dickey (at $12m- perhaps exercised).  They may make a qualifying offer to Buehrle and there will be a significant arbitration award or settlement to Donaldson.  Any way you look at it, the club does have room to absorb Shields' $21 million salary for 2016 and he is likely to provide roughly that in value.  It's nice because I don't see any glaring holes and I do see significant talent around the diamond and on the mound.  It'd be nice to acquire him for a couple of pitching prospects further away than Boyd who can help you right away.

Chatter today about Gallardo, and how he'd be willing to waive no-trade to come to Toronto. 

Unless he's suddenly found a way to suppress the HR, and this isn't just a nice half-season mirage...I hope AA can do better.  Not sure I'd feel any more comfortable with Gallardo starting a playoff game than I would Buerhle, Dickey, Estrada or Hutchison, which sort of means the upgrade is solely on Doubrount, which...meh.

Course, as I say that MLBTR updates again to say that "nothing has come of the recent chatter". Here's hoping nothing to see here, move along, go get better.

"Jays making a big push for Price."

Jon Heyman reports that the Jays are "making a major push for Price".

Then again if I am Detroit and I want the Dodgers to pay more, I tell Heyman that the Jays are making a major push for Price.

I would give up Norris straight up for Price.

I very much suspect that AA's gunslinging ways are being used as leverage by Detroit. I think the conversations regarding mid-tier pitchers are more realistic.

It's going to be more than Norris I bet

If AA does this, he better sign him long term.

Except of course Norris straight up for Price would not get it done. Add Reid-Foley or Alford and an A level prospect and that might get it done. (Just might since Price will be more expensive than Cueto)

So Norris + Boyd + a lower arm.

"Norris straight up for Price" - REALLY. Norris straight up for 2 months of Price. REALLY?

The ONLY way - on this gods earth - Isee that is IF AA thinks he can sign Price long term. I'd have to drink an enormous amount of single malt to convince myself that the Jays could KEEP Price. AA would have to nearly drown in the stuff if he thinks he can keep Price long term...

Price is going to sign for more than Scherzer and the Jays will have no leverage in that negotiation, I don't see Price choosing to stay here.

The problem with saying that Shields likely wouldn't cost too much in prospect talent is that the Jays, by all of their actions, likely cannot add the remainder of Shields' 2015 salary to the payroll. I think the deal would have to be something like Shields' plus $5-6 million from SD for whatever prospects he would have cost without the cash plus another Reid-Foley type prospect to cover the $5-6 million in cash.

Speculation is Norris, Alford, & Boyd.

iirc my Jays comp to the Cueto package was Sanchez + Boyd + Labourt.

I would not give up Norris for 12 starts worth of David Price. Not when we are 7 back in the division standings with 60 games to go. I think that move is worth at most an additional 1-3 wins, which likely would not even get us into a wildcard.

"Speculation is Norris, Alford, & Boyd."

Morosi was just trying to come up with a Jays' comp to the Cueto deal...and listed Alford last. Norris and Boyd are decent comps with the first two parts of the Cueto deal (though Norris likely better), but Alford is way, way better than the 3rd part. Morosi is just underrating Alford.

I see Sanchez for Price as realistic...it's costly but you're competing with the Dodgers for his services. I think Norris is a stud, a #4/5 starter in a worse case scenario (if he never gets control back)...the guy has comparisons to Matt Harvey and has consistently been ranked near the top ten for overall prospects. Coming into 2015, Fangraphs ranked him ahead of Syndergaard, Schwarber and Eduardo Rodriguez...behind only Julio Urias (next phenom) and Tyler Glasnow in terms of LHP.

I can see Sanchez+Labourt+lower prospect for Price and Soria

"Price is going to sign for more than Scherzer and the Jays will have no leverage in that negotiation, I don't see Price choosing to stay here."

true we'd have no leverage...but we would have an exclusive window, we do have the payroll coming off in Buehrle and Dickey to afford him, we do know that Price likes Toronto, and he might just like the chance to pitch in front of this insane offense, too.

Thing about Norris is that he really hasn't been good this year. At all. And he wasn't very good before last year, either. He's a very risky prospect, imo.

Here's that fangraphs link:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-top-200-prospect-list/

Definitely, if AA trades Norris/Boyd/Alford for 12 starts from Price I will be disappointed, but honestly, Norris' insanely high ceiling as a LHP throwing 96MPH...all of that is based on his ability to repeat his delivery which he hasn't been able to do all year, so maybe the Jays view him as expendable, then plan to restock with Harris and two draft picks in 2016.

If that's the case I hope Norris is the centerpiece and the 2nd/3rd pieces are minimal.

Would we get a comp pick for Price?

no comp pick

If we can get Price without giving up Pompey or Alford, I'm ecstatic.

Not really you're just overrating Boyd. Lamb had a lot more upside than Boyd and I think his value is pretty low now with how he got hit around in the majors. Now I agree it would be awesome if they took Boyd for as much as you value him. I just don't find that likely.

"Lamb had a lot more upside than Boyd"

why?

Even with the exclusive window it's a big mistake to offer a thirty year old pitcher a 200 million contract. Look at how quickly aver lander has tanked. I just don't see how we can go down that route anyway. It's basically trying to be the Yankees without having the Yankees revenue. It will leave us an extremely thin team with too much money sunk into players on the wrong side of thirty.

It's funny.  David Price's #1 BBRef comp is...Johnny Cueto.  Strangely (to me at least), most of his comps did not distinguish themselves in their early 30s.  Doug Drabek.  Johan Santana.  John Candelaria. His career ERA+ of 121 through age 28 sounds great, but isn't quite as good as you might think.  Kershaw's is now at 151 through age 27.  Felix Hernandez is at 130 (with many more innings under his belt).  Jon Lester is on his comp list and was at a very similar point at age 28 in 2012 and has been very, very good since. 

Price's free agent value is higher than Lester's because he is a couple of years younger entering the market, but it shouldn't be too much higher.  I like Lester's chances of being durable better than Price's.  Seven years at $27 million per on the open market, I'd think.  Not a viable option under the current terms of engagement...

Bigger arm, former top ten prospect. Boyd has never had that pedigree and sadly for a lot of evaluators that matters. Plus Boyd had the rather mediocre starts in MLB already so we'd be selling low. Anyway I'm sure you ask any eveluator on who is worth more between the two that they take Lamb.

Mike, that Fangraphs article is the most up to date info I could find as well, so I've been thinking $7 million per win.

Put me down in favour of Shields as well - I really wanted us to sign him in the off season - since we'd already signed Martin, we'd only have given up a 2nd rounder.  Shields definitely has real value, his contract was depressed by the market and the comp pick attached.

I would not give up Norris for 12 starts worth of David Price. Not when we are 7 back in the division standings with 60 games to go. I think that move is worth at most an additional 1-3 wins, which likely would not even get us into a wildcard.

I agree 100%.  I would much rather have Shields who would also give us 200 innings next season and cost less in terms of prospect quality.  Considering who we just gave Colorado I hope AA can add a decent starter without further depleting the organization's top prospect pool.  If that means a new starter isn't an ace that's fine.

The Jays front office is likely thinking of the possible wild card game. In a winner take all game, acquiring a pitcher who would start that game would be a big addition.

That said the cost seems high based on rumoured names, we will see.

Lets play pretend: Norris and Pompey and - GULP - Alfred for 10 to 12 starts from Price (YIKES!)... But - lets play pretend...

Win or lose this year...

In 16 we'll have Stroman (yea), Hutchison (ugh), Sanchez (or Norris) (OKish), Dickey (if we want - or - need), Buehrle (might even want to come back for a year), and the BEST (non-Stroman) guy we have Osuna, with the slim possibility of Reid-Foley later in the year. IF - AA can then nab one of the off-season's good group of free agent pitchers - we might be passable. Perhaps we let Dickey and Buehrle go and use their money (+ some form my piggy bank) and actually DO sign Price for $14 gazillion Canadian Loonies...

So - 2016 would be Price, Stroman, Sanchez (or Norris), Hutchison (ugh) and Osuna (being gingerly reintroduced to starting)... perhaps? Nah. But - when you're in your 70th year - and you're not allowed to dream...why be alive... Go Jays....

Aver lander = Verlander. Norris though is better than Finnegan so I think the third guy should not be an Alford type. But Price is also worth more than Cueto since he doesn't had the injury history. So Norris/Boyd/one other should do it, but dunno if a bidding war drives him up like apparently the Astros drove up Hammels price.

really looks like we're getting him.

Insane. I don't know how to feel. I hope Alford is not involved.

Everyone else can worry about the future. I for one have spent 22 years thinking about the future (enjoying it to varying degrees along the way). I'll live in the present for a bit! If we acquire David Price without trading someone important from the active roster then I will be absolutely over the moon.

It may cost alot but I see lots of potential value:

1. I see value in ownership proving beyond any doubt that they are committed to putting teams over the top when they are close.

2. I see value in playing competitive baseball through August and September even if it doesn't result in playoff baseball.

3. If we make the wild card then I don't know of an AL starter I'd have more confidence in than David Price.

4. Nobody said we can't re-sign him, just that he's likely to cost a fortune but you pay him and we are likely in the playoff discussion for 3 more years.

5. We would have a non zero chance of winning the world series... Seriously a NON ZERO chance!!!

I'll ignore at least temporarily, the possibility that we deal away 2-3 drafts worth of potential MLBers and that more than one of them might turn into the next David Price. I'll ignore the possibility that we still don't make the playoffs this year, or the possibility that Detroit just takes our players and then signs him back again in the offseason.

Some of my favourite times as a Jays fan have been the 2005 offseason, the 2012 offseason and the same goes for this offseason through to this trade deadline.

If we get Price (and to a lesser extent Shark or Cashner) then I intend to enjoy the feeling for as long as possible.

Short of watching Mitch Williams Shake off Daulton in a 2-2 count its probably as happy I can be as a Jays fan.

WE GOT HIM

Teams will probably use last years John Lester deal as a template - Also, the Tigers may want players who can help next year - maybe Kevin Pillar, Michael Saunders?

I'll still be happy....but please no Alford or Pompey.

So apparently Norris plus Alford plus someone else? That seems a bit rich, although I guess I'm happy they kept Pompey. Anyway when Price goes away after this season I hope the gamble they went for is worth giving away the future. This team and Gibbons needs to kill the Yankees down the stretch. I just fear that Gibbons is not good enough for this team and that at best we sneak into the wild card.

AA is putting a lot of trust into 12 starts and his manager. If this gamble doesn't pay off he should be fired.

Norris the only confirmed name.

Well, on the plus side if we do get Price we're likely to make the playoffs. Despite all the negativity here we're only 2.5 out of the second wildcard, and we're realistically better than any of the teams in front of us.

Over payment for Price if Alford is included.

And don't forget, we have a great pitcher for a one game playoff...Mr 6...MARCUS STROMAN!

Oh whiterasta80 - dare we dream? Dare we be allowed to dream? What if we wake?

What if - oh f*ck it - let's just rock and roll. Go ahead AA throw the dice - In Casablanca the line was; "At least we'll have Paris." for us it'll be "At least we had August and September - and - hopefully at least part of October."

Alford "likely" going in deal. Please no.

Kasi, even if Gibbons were the worst manager in the world I think he's one of the least important variables to consider. Just let the players play.

I feel awesome that we're mortgaging our future for what is most likely a wild card berth. I guess AA wasn't too serious on not going in for rentals. At 8 games behind in the loss column to the Yankees and them having a very easy second half schedule I feel we need to basically go 8-5 or better against them to catch them.

We're still loaded with young talent. No future mortgagig here.

This type of deal may well necessitate a tank or major playing in Free Agency in a few years. I'm OK with either.

"You are reading someone else's comments and attributing them to me, apparently. I've never said give up Pompey and Norris for Shields."


Oops my bad, I obviously got lost in the whole back and forth on Shields, my apologies

I think the manager is actually pretty underrated. Seems like from the article on the first game when Hawkins came that players didn't even welcome him. That falls on him. I think he's a poor bullpen manager and his usage of LF (although I don't think AA left him many options) leaves a lot to be desired. I forgot if it was here or on BBB, but someone analyzed Gibbon's team performance versus pythag. He's underperformed every year as manager. At some point you just have to accept all the signs that say he's a mediocre manager at best.

Steep price. I don't care. I'm going to be useless for the rest of the day I'm so excited.

Everyone take a step back for a moment and remember last years deadline.

Our top prospects are Pompey, Sanchez, Norris, Hoffman (who hasn't thrown an inning in the org), Osuna, Pentecost, and Barretto.

Since then we have added Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Tulo, Devon Travis, and now David Price and we have only given up 3 of those prospects (at most 4 depending on the Price package). We've also added Vladdy Jr and had a reasonably well rated draft to replenish some of the stocks.

This is not the time to complain, this is the time to celebrate.

The one thing I was afraid of has happened. AA is taking his shot and emptied the farm for essentially a shot at the wild card. Yup let's empty the farm to prop up a .500 team. It's reeks of desperation and I guess it sort of feels like some kid taking a long time building a sand castle and then saying I'm leaving the beach so I'm gonna tear it down SMH.

I really hope I'm wrong, but I feel we're going to fall short this year of winning it all and have a painful rebuild when the new president comes in.

Jeez, the negativity on this board makes me really wonder why I bother reading sometimes. We just acquire one of the best pitchers in baseball and all we can do is whine about prospects and assume we're out of the playoffs.

Well, with David Price pitching, and our (recently improved even more) offense batting we might damn well win all 12 of his starts. With Felix Doubront pitching... maybe 6-6 if we're lucky? There's a lot of upside here, obviously. And you can be damn well sure that this team is going to be energized by the deal!

If we do make it to the playoffs we have a certifiable ace who can pitch in a potential wildcard game.

I was hesitant before, but now that it's done I'm pretty pumped. I have no doubt that we're going to be playing a few meaningful games in September for the first time in years.

Norris, Boyd, Alford seems to be the deal. Hope you like that price uglyone.

Amazing.

Hurts to lose Alford (if we do)....but it would have been a tall order to expect us to get the best hitter and pitcher at the deadline and not lose ONE prospect that I really loved.

If you didn't love any of Alford, Norris, Castro, Tinico, Boyd or Hoffman I wonder who is left to love. Other than Pompey everyone we have left is years away now. There will be no pitching reinforcements from within next year.

I love Alford. and Pompey. and Osuna. and Stroman.

the rest I just like.

ALFORD NOT IN THE DEAL.

WOOT.

No Alford!!!

Blair just said it's Labourt, Norris, Boyd AND Alford.  I really hope that's not true.

Alford not in the deal. Apparently its three arms. So Norris, Boyd and someone else? Reid-Foley maybe?

Well next year the Jays have Sanchez, Osuna and Stroman as young SP candidates. Along with Hutch thats still potentially 4/5s of the rotation which is very young.

Still some young mlb pitching talent.

Rosenthal: Labourt, Boyd, Norris

Well Morosi confirmed Alford not in it. So Norris, Boyd and Labourt I guess? I'm not sure on Labourt but I guess he's pretty far away. Not that concerned on losing Boyd, although maybe he could have helped us. Losing Norris is the main piece.

Blair is an idiot. Anybody with Twitter could report better.

I don't know. I love my numbers (including pythagorean w/l) but I also like the way Gibbons manages the game. He's good at managing platoons, and good at bullpen management. I don't see him being a bad manager, particularly one so bad that firing him will make a huge difference (or that he will singlehandedly make us miss the playoffs). Given that I like his managing, I tend to wonder if the poor pythagorean w/l performances are due mostly to bad luck. It's definitely not impossible - one guy, for example got hit by lightning seven times. Lady luck is sometimes on your side, and sometimes not, and then it might sometimes change direction randomly. Hopefully now is that time.

Oh gosh. The Jays better figure out a way to parlay their world-beating offense and half a season of one great pitching asset into a 2015 World Series win, or people are really going to be screaming for Athopoulos's head on a pike.

Rosenthal is reporting Norris/Loubert/Boyd. I'm still more than a little poleaxed by this deal but the exclusion of Alford is a huge relief.

Also, "Anthopoulos" and 1/3 of a season of Price. Sorry.

I'd fire him in a second eudaimon and replace him with Cito again if it brought us the bounce back effect that happened last time that took place.

As for luck when it gets to a sample size that big you just gotta stop calling it luck. The guy is just not very good.

I'm wondering - does AA think Stroman will be back by September (Stroman thinks he will) IF he is back by then...

Price, Stroman, Buehrle, Sanchez and Dickey into the play-offs? Not so worse, eh?

Prospects still in the system that interest me:

Pompey (obviously), Vladdy Jr, Pentecost, SRF, Smith, Smoral, Chad Jenkins (as a reliever obviously), Alford (not in the deal apparently), DJ Davis, Telez. I haven't even begun to address this years draft.

We have young guys at virtually every position beyond this season, and haven't even seen Michael Saunders in a lineup where he is now the 8th or 9th best option (possibly 10th behind Pompey).

Stroman is back next year and even if Price and Buerhle walk we should be able to add a starter.

Yeah- I'm not too worried about "selling the farm."

Well it seems pretty clear where the club's draft focus is going to be the next few seasons...

As I see our remaining Prospects...

Pitchers: 1) Reid-Foley, 2) Harris, 3) Tirado, 4) Borucki and 5) one of... Hollon, Maese, Smoral, Robson, wells or Meza.

Hitters (position players); 1) Vladdy son of Vlad the Impaler, 2) Alford, 3) Pompey, 4) Tellez, and 5) one of... Pentecost, Urena, Nay, Lugo, Davis, Smith or Thomas.

OK, lots of great guys gone - but - 8 to 10 of these guys loos to be VERY SOLID prospects.

Reports from NY have Pineda going to DL with Elbow Issue and "Ivan Nova hurt too..."

Could there be, might there be, a god up there working for all us opposed to the Evil Empire? Delicious.

In an alternate universe known as "the 2000s" the Yankees were the team making these trades.

If - we get to October - I STRONGLY suspect Stroman will be back. AND - remember his problem is not arm related. Price and Stroman and perhaps Burhrle in a four game series? I'd take my chances...

"People" can scream all they want. Playoffs are huge, win or lose. Meaningful Augusts/Septembers are huge.

And speaking of huge, there's the RC. There are a lot of empty seats there that won't be empty. That will make AA's employer a boatload of money. They like money, even if it's the Canadian kind.

"He" last pitched July 30th...so going every 5th day (it works out twice he'll go on the sixth day)...

(H) Twins 4th Aug, (R) Yanks 9th, (H) Yanks 14th, R Phillies 19th, R Rangers 25th, H Tigers 30th, H Orioles Sept 4th, R Red Sox 9th, R Braves 15th, H Red Sox 20th, H Rays 25th, R Orioles 30th,

12 Regular season games and THEN ready to start in Play-offs on FULL FIVE DAYS REST!!!

And - IF - Stroman is back by then!!!!

Go Jays!!!!!

"He" last started on the 28th - I'm a idiot - that means he can go the 2nd Against the Royals at home. Everything after that I said is pure BS...Sorry.

Methinks tis Time for me to have a time out with a wee dram...

About Devon's injury, is it time let Valencia to play more at 2B, knowing that Goins' weak hitting ?

Hopefully - this time I got it...
"He" last started July 28th. SO

H Royals Aug 2, R Yanks 7, H Athletics 13, R Phillies 18, R Angels 23, H Tigers 28, H Indians 2nd of September, R Red Sox 7, R Yanks 12, R Braves 17, H Yanks 22, H Rays 27, R Rays 2nd of October...

SO 13 starts! Only 2 against the Yanks, 2 the Rays and ) against the O's...Interesting.

I am stunned!!!

I disagree with so many of my dear Bauxites. I agree with a few. I cannot remember too many names. Kasi & Cruzing I am on your side.

We are FANs as much as anyone.

Therefore CHEERS !!!!!

I don't remember the Yankees ever trading a prospect who amounted to anything.

I don't remember the Yankees ever trading a prospect who amounted to anything.

Some of us are old enough to remember the Fred McGriff trade.

One more deal to go, then lets play ball!