If it's a deep sleeper or B prospect I'm fine with this. If Pompey or Alford than I'm tired of AA overpaying for the big trade.

Ya man I wish we had that Donaldson trade back.

Both players traded for Tulo had more value than any of the non Lawrie piece. And it's not like Reyes has no value or there isn't a real cost to eating Tulo's contract for years.

Barreto is arguably a better prospect than Hoffman or Castro.

"....If Pompey or Alford than I'm tired of AA overpaying for the big trade...."

You're over-valuing the Jays prospects and you're under-valuing the many ways that Tulo helps the Jays:  offensively, defensively, helping the pitchers, helping deepen the lineup, making the team younger, etc.

As for the alleged "AA overpaying for the big trade" -- are you really trying to portray this as a trend?  It's happened exactly once -- and only because Syndergaard is having a very good rookie season.  And even then you wouldn't be saying it if Dickey had helped the Jays get into the playoffs.  (If you bring up the Marlins trade as an overpay, you'll find a lack of consensus among most observers, even if the claim is often made by AA's critics.)

"...And it's not like Reyes has no value..."

But a moment ago, you were citing all the "overpay trades" by Anthopoulos.  So Reyes has low value when you want to bash the previous trade, and high value when you want to bash this trade.

jays fans upset we got Tulowitzki.

that is truly amazing.

Since there's a trade thread now, I'll reiterate what I said on the other one. Hoffman stings, but trades to get 5 win shortstops are supposed to sting. Hopefully the third minor leaguer is a low level upside play, or decent-not-great. If that's the case, I'll certainly cast my lot in the 'approve' pile.

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski says that Reyes contract is projected as a net negative of $20 mil in the hole.  Tulo's is a +$40 mil.  He is a big fan of the Jays side of the deal even with Hoffman.  He says they need Pompey to make it a decent deal for Colorado.  I really hope Pompey isn't mixed in.

CF both the Miami and Mets trades have proved to be big overpays and set this team back. I feel we might be piling more in just to make up for those mistakes. And geez the trades were three years apart. Clearly Reyes has a lot less value now than in 2012. But not zero value, and if the third prospect is a top one I don't see how three top prospects and Reyes for Tulo makes sense. The guy has been worth nearly seven war in his time here, and is matching Tulo this year despite missing a lot more games to injuries. It doesn't make sense to trade for a 1 war update for SS if you're giving up three top prospects too. If Tulo doesn't rebound back to a five win player this is a disaster.

i'm fine even if pompey or alford are in there. but i hope they aren't.

and Kasi, where is the Donaldson trade in your analysis?

Just so I understand:

Instead of paying Reyes $22m per year until he is 34 (and then either $22 m to play or $4m buyout) we pay Tulo $20 m a year until he is 34, then $14 m for 1 year, then either $15 m to play or $4 m to walk.

When Reyes is about 100 OPS+ now with around -5/year defense compared to Tulo being 110-120 OPS+ and +10/year defense.

So younger, cheaper, better hitter, better fielder? Sure we have to pay Tulo a fair bit for his 34 year old season, but we don't have to pay Reyes a fair bit for his 34 year old season. Tulo has an injury history, but so does Reyes, so this is neutral from that perspective.

Plus we don't need to watch the super painful fielding errors and base running errors Reyes has been making of late. Don't get me wrong, Reyes is still a very good SS, but not a $22 m one.

It sucks to lose good pitching prospects, and Castro was pretty exciting, but 6 months ago no one was really talking about Castro. Hoffman is a top 50 prospect in MLB, but not a top 10 one at this point. He'll very likely be a useful major leaguer that we'll wish we had, but Tulo is really, really, really good.

Bottom line, generally whoever got the best player usually wins the trade. I think we got the best player. The defense improvement likely makes all of our pitchers slightly better too.

Plus LaTroy Hawkins is likely a useful bullpen piece this year. Not a shutdown closer like Kimbrel or Papelbon, but not bad for a throw in to the larger deal.

Say what you will but I doubt you'll find a projection system that predicts Tulo will be worth less or the same as Reyes during this or the next few years thus a net improvement for the Jays.  Whenever Tulo is down we have an amazing glove but no bat in Goins to fill in.  I wonder if Reyes was being a pain on that point as his defense was looking bad this year yet we never saw Goins in for defense late in a game.

To me this is a win at this point for the Jays.  I want to see the final details of course but I do like Tulo a lot more than Reyes.  Hoffman is a 'dang' to give up but his K's are in the 6's this year which is pretty low even if he is coming back from TJ.  Rare nowadays for a #1 or 2 to be that low so I doubt he'll be either.

I would certainly prefer Pompey to not be included - I suspect he's going to be the LF upgrade any day now. He's been playing LF the past week, and I'm interpreting that as preparation.

That was fine because unlike the other trades we weren't paying for a player already in decline. We got a 28 year old with as many years of control as the player we gave away in Lawrie. Also felt Nolin and Gravemans stuff would not play here so only losing Barreto hurt, well other than Lawrie. Still no idea why Beene made that trade. But Reyes in decline, Johnson the same, Buerhle despite being solid was in decline and old, and well the last was a near forty year old knuckleballer. I worry if Tulo can hold up on this turf. He's not exactly been a picture of health.

Anyway would have liked the other trade that Cleveland turned down more. Was Norris, Hoffman and Pompey for Carrasco. At least it would have helped our pitching. I do think Hawkins is an underrated pickup for the rest of this year though.

I think most don't see how improving the offense can be bigger than a pitching improvement. The lineup gets stronger you then wear down the other teams pitching faster and weaken them thus get a domino effect. There is some of that if a starter is added but not to the same degree. Plus with stronger defense all pitchers improve a bit.

There's a bunch of insomniac Jays fans out there! Some random thoughts:

• This will stop everybody talking about how the Jays should have drafted Tulowitzki instead of Ricky Romero.
• I wonder whether the Jays' talent evaluators decided that Hoffman wasn't going to be an elite starter. It's interesting that he was the trade chip instead of Norris.
• I will miss Reyes's obvious enthusiasm for the game, but I was beginning to worry that his contract was going to turn into a Vernon Wells-style millstone. I wasn't as worried about his defense as some people were - it doesn't really matter whether your shortstop can go deep into the hole if you have Josh Donaldson playing third and ranging way to his left - but Reyes's on-base percentage was way down from his prime years.
• Does Tulowitzki actually want to play in Toronto? It's a foreign country, there's artificial turf, and so on and so on. Some people like it here, some don't. I guess he must have been consulted before the trade - he's now on a full no-trade clause from what I've heard, and his contract extends to 2020.
• I have to think that the Jays have one more big trade up their sleeve. Tulo is a wonderful player, but he gives them more of what they already have - right-handed power. (At this point, opposing teams are just going to tell their lefthanded pitchers to not bother going to the park when the Jays are in town.) They still need a starting pitcher, so I expect that they will be trading one of the bats to get one.
• No one has talked about Hawkins yet, but he does fill a need - he appears to be a competent right-handed relief pitcher. He'll be happy to escape Colorado - his ERA is 4.91 at home and 2.38 on the road.

While that is true to a degree a couple points. One Tulo isn't super great on d, but yes better than Reyes, second we saw last year when EE went down how quickly that domino effect goes away. But a good starter stands on their own, not being reliant on others for additional value.

decline?

2015: 1.4war (86gms) (in progress)
2014: 5.3war (91gms)
2013: 5.3war (126gms)
2012: 1.2war (46gms)
2011: 5.4war (143gms)
2010: 5.6war (122gms)
2009: 5.4war (151gms)
2008: 0.5war (101gms)
2007: 5.2war (155gms)
2006: -0.5war (25gms)

It's always interesting with AA.

For me this trade hinges entirely on Tulowitzki's health. His annual salaries over the next 5 years are entirely reasonable for a player of his skill level, but he needs to play at least 120 games per year.

What happens next is key to making an initial judgement on this trade. It will be really impressive if AA can get a solid starter without trading any of Stroman-Pompey-Norris-Alford.

Pondering the batting order with the leadoff hitter gone and yet another RH slugger... I think I'd try this initially (Carrera gone in favour of Pompey):

2B Travis
3B Donaldson
RF Bautista

DH Encarnacion
SS Tulowitzki
1B Smoak (platoon with Colabello)

C Martin
CF Pillar
LF Pompey

Against LHP I'd play Valencia in left and rotate which regular outfielder gets a day off.

This is from the espn summary: Tale Of The Shortstops' Tape Jose Reyes was in his third season with the Blue Jays. In that span, Troy Tulowitzki had better numbers -- and Reyes played only one more game than Tulo.
Star Shortstops -- Past 3 Seasons

	REYES	TULOWITZKI
Games	305	304
BA	.289	.316
OBP	.334	.390
Slug%	.404	.537
HR	23	58
DRS*	-28	+13
*Defensive runs saved

Tale of 2 Tulos this year:

1st 43gms: 161pa, 3.1bb%, 22.4k%, .136iso, 69wrc+
2nd 43gms: 185pa, 10.3bb%, 19.5k%, .207iso, 149wrc+

This will stop everybody talking about how the Jays should have drafted Tulowitzki instead of Ricky Romero.

Oh, I don't know about that. The Jays just got the 30-year old Tulowitzki, not the 20-year old version. This might actually re-trigger the woulda, coulda, shoulda talk.

Somebody got tired of Reyes making all those errors.

I wonder how this changes the clubhouse.

A starting pitcher has to come this way now. And it won't be cheap.

I could see Davis hitting first and Pompey last.

Love that AA snuck a reliever into the deal. I see no way that the prospect is going to sting that much. The likely reason we don't know the prospect is because he's from the 2015 draft and there's nobody on that list I'd be hesitant to move in this deal. If it was pompey I have to imagine that the Colorado side would have leaked it by now.

No just add some bloody starting pitching.

Dave Cameron gives a nod to Markov Chains in defending the trade. Not the first time we've seen that type of argument this season.

I am wondering if a few factors didn't figure into this trade. Just speculating, obviously.

• AA had no interest in rentals.
• One way to improve the defense is to improve the defense (rather than to add a pitcher).
• One or both of Bautista and Encarnacion could be gone after 2016.
• It may be difficult luring free agents to Toronto, so trading for big names may be the alternative.

Ryan Goins must be feeling some job security now. Job description: Fulltime caddy. Perks: May get to start 40 games a year.

And I guess we'll be seeing Devon Travis start his new life as a leadoff hitter shortly. Can't be anyone else, can it?

Ryan Goins must be feeling some job security now. Job description: Fulltime caddy. Perks: May get to start 40 games a year.

It just occurred to me. This already was his job description.

It's not Pompey or Alford -- it's Tinoco per Heyman.

Still very OK with the trade.

I think Chuck is on point here. It's about making us contenders even if Joey and Edwin walk. Extends the competitive window of our offense.

I think pompey leads off by the end of the year. But for now it's Travis. I like Tulo in the 2 spot unless Donaldson has antobodies to dropping down.

It has been difficult luring FA pitchers to Toronto. Would pitching in front of this new lineup (especially if Pompey could take over LF and run with it) plus Martin catching change the dynamic enough?

Lots of pitchers still believe in W's and no lineup in baseball would give a pitcher a better chance of racking them up.

Okay I can deal with Tinico.

Hawkins can pitch in high leverage, but he's 42 and he's dealing with biceps tendinitis, probably needs plenty of rest.

Good trade by the Rockies, especially if they can dump Reyes to the Mets - it's a huge gamble for the jays from a position of desperation/weakness - how Tulo holds up injury wise will probably be the deciding factor. I keep hearing that baseball is a young man's game, yet the jays keep acquiring injury prone stars on the wrong side of the age curve.
Mets get Reyes best years, we got his albatross years
Rockies get Tulo's best years, we get ...
But I'm sure the fanbase/local media will be super excited and AA wouldn't have to worry when Tulo's contract becomes an albatross

I keep hearing that baseball is a young man's game

That's some deep analysis right there.

It's about making us contenders even if Joey and Edwin walk.

EE already walked. Sort of. He's having an off year. It wouldn't be too difficult to replace his current production level. About 2 WAR of offense. Cola already does that.

I'm absolutely blown away.  Guess AA is going for it.

Gotta think he may have more job security than we once thought.  I'm actually impressed the organization let him commit all that money to down the road (though I guess they don't have a ton of commitments to those years right now).

I will tremendously miss Jose's presence, since regardless of the struggles at times this year he is an absolutely awesome baseball player to watch play.  That said, Tulo is a clear upgrade offensively and defensively.

Please go get a starter now, AA.

Hawkins is an underrated piece as well.  That's likely the BP arm we've been hoping for.

Pretty amazing deal.

"jays fans upset we got Tulowitzki.

that is truly amazing."


This.

I see this deal as much for next year as this. I think it's clear now he's not getting an expensive rental. Maybe one that costs a B prospect but that's it. Hawkins should be a nice upgrade to the pen and Tulo gets us as many wins as any pitcher does.

Count me in the pro-Tulo group. As others have said, it extends our window out for another 3 years or so, with Martin, Donaldson and Tulo all being under control. I'd bet we re-sign Jose, and let EE walk.

It's always tough giving up young guys, but Castro is likely destined for the pen (as is Tinoco), and all the concerns about Hoffman have been enough to make me wary.

Like someone else on this thread said, interesting that they chose to trade him instead of Norris. I assume that was a choice they made, as Norris/Hoffman have similar value.

I also think it bodes well for AA's future here in Toronto. After the Donaldson heist and all his other shrewd moves (Travis for Gose, Colabello on the cheap, Martin, etc.), I can see no reason to NOT extend AA for 5 more years.

They almost have to follow this up with a deal for a cost-controlled pitcher, right? Maybe Ross or Cashner in SD or Fiers? I'd have to think that Norris and Pentecost plus could be on the way out for someone like that.

Fine to throw in Hawkins, but he's probably our 4th best RHRP.

Hawkins has only allowed 2 earned run since April. Basically 1 earned run a month, or an ERA around 1.2.
And he's got closer experience.

I had Hoffman in our Top 3 propsects as recently as two weeks ago; with Castro in our Top 10 and Tinoco, just outside the top 10. Not a bad haul for the downgrade at the position and reduction in term for the Rockies.

I have developed a bit of a prospect crush on Tinoco this year. He's got a nice frame at 6'4" 220.

I am OK with this deal, I think its a good deal for both clubs. Here is why:

* The Jays are a better club this year and next
* Reyes decline in the field seemed to be getting worse and I don't think he is the kind of player that would switch positions. That put the Jays in a tough spot for the next two years
* Of all the Jays top prospects Hoffman was the one I would have preferred to trade. He has had TJ already and is back throwing really hard. I would always worry about a second TJ in his future
* Castro looks like a releiver long term, maybe a very good one, but a reliever should not kill a deal

I do worry that Tulo will look like Reyes is two or three years time but the Jays have a two year window to win, based on the contracts of the big sluggers. This deal gives the Jays a chance to win this year and next.

Finally, does anyone remember the Nomar trade? At the time of the trade Nomar was a good hitter, was injury prone, but bad on defense. The Sox went on to win the world series with a better defensive shortstop, Orlando Cabrera.

Anthopoulos has now acquired (arguably) the best catcher, third baseman, and shortstop in MLB, all since the end of last season.

I do worry that Tulo will look like Reyes is two or three years time.

ZiPS projects Tulowitzki's contract value at plus-$40 million and Reyes' at minus-$20 million.

I don't have much original to add here.  Tulowitzki is a significant offensive and defensive upgrade over Reyes.  The team does need a good shortstop for 3 years or more; it is an organizational weakness that has effectively been addressed.  The prospects involved are good, but ones that I am content to see depart given the upgrade.

The questions I had are:
- does Tulowitzki have significant platoon splits?
- is the deterioration in his defensive numbers (DRS, UZR) in 2015 real, a sample size fluke or something in between?

The answer to the first question is no.  He has a typical small platoon split for a RH hitter.

As for the second question, I don't know.  He had similar poor numbers in 2012 in a smallish sample and bounced back in 2013 and 2014.  I'd be inclined to believe that he is having typical age deterioration with sample size fluctuation. 

I have no problem with Anthopoulos doubling down on position player strength.  Hopefully Pompey will be called up today to add to the good news.  It would be nice to add a starting pitcher, but I wouldn't hope for a move just to make a move.

Tulowitzki's age 30 BBRef comps include Miguel Tejada, Hanley Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra, Yogi Berra, Joe Torre, Michael Young, Joe Gordon, Ernie Banks, Alfonso Soriano and Chase Utley.  On average, they have generated about 15 WAR over the remainder of their careers (on average 7 seasons).  On average, Tulowitzki figures to be pretty much where Reyes is in a couple of years- probably somewhat better on defence. I'm a little more optimistic than Gerry about the trade, but very much along the same lines.

My favourite line from Cameron's article on the trade....

There are no diminishing returns to scoring more runs; there is no point on offense to where the marginal value of a run scored is worth less than preventing a run from being allowed on defense.

The prospect price the Jays just paid for Tulowitzki is comparable to what the Royals just paid for Cueto. Given the years of control left on the contract, I approve of the trade. I liked Hoffman, but that is the price of doing business.

Mets get Reyes best years, we got his albatross years

A few people have posted comments similar to this. Well, here's what the Jays paid him along with FanGraphs' calculation of his actual dollar value:

2013: $10M in salary, $16M in value
2014: $16M in salary, $26M in value
2015: $13.6M in salary, $9.3M in value

Total: $39.6M in salary, $51.3 in value

So some significant surplus value for the time he was here.

Oh, and it never ceases to amaze me how fearless Anthopoulos is when it comes to moves. The man is not bound by convention and he has made some astonishing moves in the last calendar year without selling the farm (as some have worried). I will be shocked if he is not here long term, regardless of who the new president winds up being.

A small piece of trivia:  the Jays now have the oldest and youngest players in the league.

First, wow! As makes it interesting.

Second, I thonk this is part 1. I think Edwin or Bautista are about to be traded. How about Edwin to Seattle for iwakuma, Morrison and pitching prospect.
Last,that is steep price for a player, but imo he is the best ss in baseball. You can't get anything for nothing.

That is what I like most about AA - the willingness to do the big trade.  I remember the 80's when our GM was nicknamed 'Stand' Pat Gillick as he seemed scared to do anything after the Bill Caudill trade for a few years.  Then the Barfield trade for an injured pitcher, before breaking out with THE TRADE (Alomar/Carter for Fernandez/McGriff) and a few more leading to 2 World Series and a playoff in 1991.

As I list above he seems to average one shocker a year - Wells for anything, the 2 big pre 2013 trades, Donaldson, and now this. So 5 shockers in 6 years thus one more needed to get to the 1 per year average.  I'm hoping for either a King Felix or Puig trade as those would be shockers and would either finish off the lineup or skyrocket the pitching.  Hey, you all thought I was nuts about Reyes/Tulo.  With AA nothing is impossible it seems outside of a playoff berth (sigh).

I also wonder about Norris's poor start last night, and Hoffman's last one, which was pretty impressive. Do you suppose that factored into things? Is it really the case, as some here have speculated, that Anthopoulos tried to insist on Hoffman, not Norris? Perhaps he did, and the poor start made the Rockies think, "Heck, maybe there's not much to choose between these two." Or perhaps he didn't, perhaps he offered the Rockies their preference, and the poor start made the Rockies think, "Yeah, not so impressive. We'll go with Hoffman."

As Anthopoulos mentioned recently, other teams' will change their minds on a trade on the basis of one start. So I can't help but wonder.

2013: $10M in salary, $16M in value
2014: $16M in salary, $26M in value
2015: $13.6M in salary, $9.3M in value

I was going to interject that BBRef sees Reyes' defense differently than does FG, but their assessments, while different in 2015, are actually identical in the aggregate over this timeframe.

FG: -1.3, -0.1, 0.3; Total -1.1
BBRef: 0.2, -0.7, -0.6; Total: -1.1

I don't know about that, Hodgie.  "Fearless" is not how I would describe this move at all.  It's a pretty clear "win-now" move, with potential costs down the road.  It is what you would expect from a GM under threat with short-term budgetary restraint. 

One small bonus to this deal is that Travis (OPS .844) replaces Reyes (.708) leading off.  More ABs for a better hitter.

It also does seem to hasten Pompey's return - we need some lefty / switch hitter balance to a very right-heavy lineup.  tough to demote Carrera with his recent run of key plays, but the writing is on the wall, barring a trade of one of our surplus bats.

who goes down in the pen for Hawkins?  Tepera seems likely, but perhaps it is time for Loup to straighten himself out in AAA.  he's been getting hammered, and we've seen this teams willingness to demote underperforming 'name' relievers with Delebar. 

Hey, you all thought I was nuts about Reyes/Tulo.

It's been speculated by lots of people, and I don't recall anyone thinking it was nuts, except ... I think maybe Mike Wilner said recently there was no way it was going to happen. He trips himself up sometimes pretending to have more certainty about things than he really should.

In any case, the winner for speculation has to go to Dave Cameron, who wrote on May 15th (in "Troy Tulowitzki's Trade Value"):

This is maybe the most interesting one, because the Blue Jays have the young arms the Rockies are looking for, and could send back Jose Reyes to offset Tulo’s salary. A deal including Reyes, Daniel Norris (#17), and Jeff Hoffman (#67) would almost certainly get the Rockies interested, and might even be enough going back to ask for more than just Tulo....

I don't think we see Pompey until August 1, if ever.

Gut tells me Norris and Pompey form the core of the package that returns a controllable non-shields pitcher (don't need both for Shields). I'd be comfortable with that. Would be nice to pick up a decent slug for LF though.

Norris, Pompey, SRF for Cashner/JUpton?

Mike, can you explain why you think AA is 'under threat'?  I assume you mean, 'under threat of being fired'  - a comment similar to Cruzin on the other thread:  "I'm already declaring AA is selling the farm to:  1) Save his job".

This is a personal bugbear of mine, and I keep asking people - is there evidence that good GMs actually make moves to improve short term results simply to save their jobs?  CEOs tend to be smart, analytically-inclined number-crunchers.  Making a foolish trade simply because they are 'under threat' seems to me the best way to make sure that they don't save their jobs.  But I'd love to here evidence to the contrary! 

I've gotta agree with Hodgie that this is a fearless move, and typical of AA- other GMs simply don't make the kind of moves he's been making pretty much since he got here. 

I can't see the Jays paying a premium for a LF power bat rental who also hits from the right side.

I do think the Padres are the team to watch though.  One of Shields, Ross or Cashner, plus Venable (LH bat who can play a legit CF to boot) is what I'm guessing AA is working on right now.  And maybe the Jays figure out a way to work in a Kennedy as well, although "payroll parameters" and all that.

JerJapan, People respond to incentives, simple as that. If GMs know they have to make the playoffs in a particular year or get fired, that's an incentive they generally respond to. It's poor management (i.e., ownership) to put him in that position in the first place, but that's a whole other story.

That said, I disagree with Mike, and wouldn't accuse Anthopoulos of doing that here. Trading Norris and Pompey for Cueto would've looked like that. But Anthopoulos said all along that rentals was the last aisle he was going to look in, and the trade he made is good for the short term and probably the long term too.

Jerjapan, Anthopoulos is under threat because the team has not been competitive in September during his tenure and it has been over 20 years since the club made the playoffs.  I am not saying that this is a good way to evaluate a General Manager, but realistically owners do take into account the team record over the medium haul when making these decisions.

Incidentally, the upgrade from Reyes to Tulowitzki is probably less than the upgrade from Carrera/Valencia to Pompey.  This is a move that ought to have been made weeks ago.

Good points, Jevant.

TUIB, as you can see up-thread, I don't mind the trade from the long-term perspective.  I think it's a good trade.  I just wouldn't describe it as "fearless".  It's conventional in its timing and unusual in not addressing weakness but in building on relative strengths. 

As remarked on other sites, Toronto has about $50.0 MM in expiring contracts. So going forward with a Salary increase doesn't seem to be a problem. Some of those expiring contracts could get claimed from waivers next month, so taking on Salary this year isn't as big an issue as might think.

I love the deal, but think we overpaid, but maybe by a wee bit. Hawkins as a second piece is underachieving, while an Axford might have been enough. Still need a Starting Pitcher.

Well, OK, Mike. I was just responding to this:

It's a pretty clear "win-now" move, with potential costs down the road. It is what you would expect from a GM under threat with short-term budgetary restraint.

It's a win-now move, but not only that. It wasn't just a rental, I guess is the point. As some analysts have mentioned, KC gave up just as much to get Cueto. So if it's a choice of Cueto or Tulowitzki, both help Anthopoulos/Jays this year, but only one of them helps in the years to come.

Is Alex Anthopoulos under threat? Yes, he might be. New President is coming in and no playoffs, with all the money spent, might mean a Change is due. Definitely gone? No, he could be kept anyway.

yeah getting an elite player for his age 30-34 seasons is clearly not just a win now move.

is there evidence that good GMs actually make moves to improve short term results simply to save their jobs?

Aren't we all prone to a recency bias, CEOs included? You yourself were citing Carrera's recent exploits despite his overall replacement level season.

Yes, TUIB, it is not as much of a "win-now" move as acquiring Cueto. Still, in two years, it is likely that the Rockies will get quite a bit more surplus value from their half of the trade.

To look at it another way, I like Tulowitzki a lot more than Dickey  2 and 1/2 years ago and I liked Syndegaard and d'Arnaud a lot more than Hoffman and Castro.  I do like the shape of the team in the medium term with Martin, Travis, Tulowitzki, Pompey, Pillar and Donaldson forming a nice core with maybe enough money to keep Jose Bautista here for a few more years.  An outfield of Pompey, Pillar and Alford would be a lot of fun with Bautista maybe at first base in a couple of years. 

Tangled, don't know that I can agree with you here:

"People respond to incentives, simple as that. If GMs know they have to make the playoffs in a particular year or get fired, that's an incentive they generally respond to"

GM of a MLB team is not a typical job.  I don't know the details of AA's contract, but he's making elite managerial money.  If his primary goal is to keep his job as GM, it's his track record he's going to be relying on, not a temporary bump in wins and losses.  If someone told me I had to improve 'results' at work as defined by simple key outcomes, damn straight I'll do my best to improve.  But I don't have the kind of income AA has to fall back on, nor the high-level and unique skill set that he brings to the table. 

Ultimately, I'd assume that he's more concerned about his reputation than his job. 

"Aren't we all prone to a recency bias, CEOs included? You yourself were citing Carrera's recent exploits despite his overall replacement level season."

Well, I did say that demoting Carrera was the right move.  It's not recency bias to say that it's tough to demote the guy - it's a managerial point to note that it's an emotionally tough pill for the player to swallow, winning a game for the team and getting demoted, and I'm sure some of the players in the clubhouse feel bad about it too.

But people do become successful CEO's, statisticians, social scientists, etc, precisely because of their ability to largely avoid logical errors like recency bias. 

It's conventional in its timing and unusual in not addressing weakness but in building on relative strengths.

This, by the way, is evidence -- well, possibly -- of Anthopoulos's brilliance. How many other GMs, with offence and pitching like this one, would have looked for this type of trade? It's completely counter-intuitive and yet it's absolutely the right thing to do. Perhaps the thing Billy Beane should've done last year and didn't -- he traded hitting for offence instead.

Dave Cameron talks about that in his piece today, and I liked the way he explained it. There's a tendency among people to think "we've got enough of that, let's get something else" because in most situations in life, we get diminishing returns. The 8th hot dog gives less satisfaction than the 1st, so it's time now for a drink instead. But that doesn't work in baseball -- adding Tulowitzki to the offence actually gives more benefit when you've already got seven (or whatever) good/great hitters than it would if he were the first great hitter.

Here's how Cameron put it:

When people argue against upgrading strengths, they’re really arguing for the presence of diminishing returns, but in baseball, the evidence actually supports the idea that adding a good hitter to an already good line-up actually returns a higher level of value, not a lower one. I wrote about this concept earlier this year; while people tend to want to balance out a team’s strengths and weaknesses, historical data actually shows that stacking good hitters has non-linear impacts, and the Blue Jays may actually get more of a benefit by adding a good hitter to their line-up than they would by adding an equivalent upgrade in the rotation.

This is why you want to use something like BaseRuns or a Markov Chain when modeling team run scoring, rather than just taking individual player’s linear weights and adding them together; in a good line-up, the whole really is greater than the sum of the individual parts, because good hitters create more opportunities for other good hitters to turn their production into runs.

When I see Anthopoulos make a move like this, it tells me he's more in touch with sabermetrics than we might sometimes think.

Something just dawned on me. After days of seeing a certain Jays manager's name mentioned in almost every post, haven't noticed it once here.

And I'll leave it at that.

Whoops... Meant to say, of course, that Beane traded hitting for pitching -- traded a strength to upgrade a weakness.

Have to disagree with TUIB...no diminishing returns on hot dogs.

Thanks for posting this, I love the concept.

Let the aged one speak:

I like this move. Reyes had lost a bit of range (OK a fair bit of range) - BUT lately he was wiffing on balls hit directly to him, directly through his legs. THAT - is the most deflating thing for a pitcher that can happen. It destroys pitchers souls. Assuming any of them have one of course. Just last night they showed a spectacular play by Tulo going to his right jumping up and spinning and making the throw to second to start a DP. The Jays have more power than god - now - they've just added another serious HR threat (at least a HR threat for a SS).

I think AA has been working to try and get a multi-pitcher trade. It didn't work. He can't get the difference making pitcher he's looking for - so - Plan B - in this case if you can't fix what's wrong reinforce your strengths. I love the move. Hoffman, Castro and Tinoco - cough - gasp - those are going to be three really good pitchers. BUT - 1992/3 was a long time ago - many bottles of single malt have slowly been imbibed since the Jays stood in glory.

I still expect a trade for a starter - but - I expect to be underwhelmed by what we get and overwhelmed by what we'll have to pay to get it.

Given that our dollar is so low it's now called a Half-Looney, given the fact that Rogers has a tighter purse string than Scrooge and given that I really, really don't want to waste what little is left of EE and Bau careers - I'm happy.

AA - a puppet master with no money to replace frayed stings still pulls them with the best!

"After days of seeing a certain Jays manager's name mentioned in almost every post, haven't noticed it once here."

Don't worry said managers name will pop up again in disdain unless we somehow leave the .500 in the rear view mirror.

If his primary goal is to keep his job as GM, it's his track record he's going to be relying on, not a temporary bump in wins and losses.

That's how it should be, yeah. But all the speculation is that this is it for him if he doesn't make the playoffs, and that he knows it. Other than saying that, we can't get into his head, so none of us can ever know. But the thing is -- even he might not know! People are incredible at rationalizing things that serve their interests, without thinking in such blatant terms. So I agree with you that he seems like a decent guy and he's evidently (to this point) not putting the long-term future of the team at risk, but I can also see how, if there were a tough call on a certain trade, or if it were a tougher call right now as to whether to buy or sell, his job status might be a factor. As I think I put it before, he might make a different judgement were he at the start of a long-term contract than at the end of his current one. "Well, Bautista and everyone got on my case last year. The city hasn't sniffed the playoffs in twenty years. Yeah, OK, I owe it to everyone to take a shot this year." That kind of thing. The motives look pure, and maybe they are, or maybe that's just how we rationalize things.

I've already expressed my feelings on this trade in the other thread. As the trade stands alone, it's a fair trade and given different circumstances, record and position in the playoff race I could totally get behind this trade as the one that tips the scale in our favour. But given where we are I don't think this puts us in the position of challenging for the WS that we all want. And if the follow up is digging into the farm again to get that starter everyone is expecting us to get, that mortgaging of the future is a very high cost. I hope I'm wrong in my assessment but not feeling good about the cost at this point for that incremental improvement for this year.

Nonetheless, if nothing else with AA expect the unexpected!!

I highly doubt and sincerely hope Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna are not traded. They are effective MLB Pitchers with upside untouched. They are good now and should get better.

That said, who's next on the trade list? It's hard to evaluate what another GM might want, but near MLB-ready types rank high. Does Norris, Pompey and Gordon have enough demand? It's not about who goes out, it must always be about who comes back.

The ability to take on money is a Team's greatest asset. When you consider that a full-house regular season games might bring in $1.2 - $1.3 MM, you have to consider how much more postseason games are. Being the first of two Wild Card berth means Home Field. That could be easily worth $10.0 - $12.0 MM or more. Each home game in subsequent rounds could be worth $15.0 - $25.0 MM. Being guaranteed two home games does wonders for the bottom line.

Hawkins can pitch in high leverage, but he's 42 and he's dealing with biceps tendinitis, probably needs plenty of rest.

He's perfect for the Jays, then - install him as closer and with this offense he'll only see a dozen save situations the rest of the season.

Plenty of rest there!

Well, actually, hypobole, I was thinking of posting something along the lines of this but decided against it:

"fearless would be firing Gibbons at the 100 game mark and bringing in an unproven quantity like Sal Fasano.  I could get behind that too."

I want to point out Trulo is a top 10 player.

Hoffman is a top 50 prospect... Prospect.

Since our team has been so stocked in the past 20 years from our farm system, I will take the top ten player.

The team that gets the best player always wins the trade in my opinion. The only downside is if Tulowitzki spends a lot of time on the disabled list while Hoffman turns into a front of the rotation starter which we desperately need. I am mostly for the trade and admire AA for getting it done. Now, as an encore, I wouldn't mind seeing EE traded for a reliable starter.

1. the real beauty of tulo is that his bat legitimately plays even as a DH. this is not a reyes situation where so much value is tied into poorly aging speed and defense tools.

2. we're not on the hook for any of the serious age decline 35+ yrs.

3. people have to really take a slow sober look at these prospects. the likely bet is that only one of them turns into a signigicantly above replacement player, let alone impact player.

people have to really take a slow sober look at these prospects.

This is sage counsel, for all prospects, always.

The Phillies, who come to Toronto for tonight, are asking Teams for their best offer for Hamels by tomorrow. I don't expect Toronto to be in this Market.

what would be really funny is when AA starts waxing poetically about how fantastic Tulo is, someone should replay the same things he said about Reyes when the jays acquired him - AA does hyperbole better than any other GM.

Again, 85BJ:

Total: $39.6M in salary, $51.3 in value

I like this trade because it's not a straight rental. We'll have Tulo until 2020, if I remember right, and under normal circumstances you can expect him to produce good numbers for the duration. He's an obvious improvement on Reyes, and the injury concerns between the two are a wash (it might help too that Tulo can now occasionally DH). We also get Hawkins as a throw-in, who should be a reliable bullpen arm for this year.

This isn't a desperate "win-now" trade, but a "win-now on my terms" trade. AA made a move that should help us this year, but also make us a better team for years to come. It's the best kind of win-now trade. We lost a couple of nice prospects, but I think people highly overrate prospects. A lot of them never work out, and I trust management to replace them with other quality prospects. They're drafting record is pretty good of late. We didn't even lose our best ones.

Great trade. The rest of the year should be exciting, that's for sure, but so should the next few.

I think the trade market is stronger when shipping MLB players. It is a sellers market.

So why not become a seller? We now have access hitting. Let's get some pitching!

Do we ever face a lefty again?

AA does hyperbole better than any other GM

I'm pretty sure he's tied for first with 29 other GMs.

AA on reyes when traded:

“Leadoff, energy, makeup,” said Anthopoulos. “Check off every single box. I don’t know that there’s another shortstop like him. Any GM would love to have him.

“At shortstop, he’s the captain of the infield. There’s an impact there. You’re in the middle of everything. Shortstops are so scarce to begin with. You’ll see it around the game that most shortstops are hitting ninth and you’re just going to take the glove. Now you have a guy who hits at the top of the lineup, batting champion, stolen base champ, defence, energy, makeup.

“As a general manager I don’t know if I’ll get a chance to have someone like that at shortstop again. It’s a rare player to have in your organization and you want to take advantage of it.”



turns out he did get the chance to get an amazing SS again....but I'm guessing the praise he gives tulo today will be a bit better than "unique energetic leadoff guy".

In the medium term I think this is a good trade. Locks in production at a position where you often get little, and protects against the departure or decline of EE and/ or JB for when the young pitchers finally mature in a couple of years.

Doubt it makes much difference to this year's odds given how shaky our starters are. And with Beuhrle gone next year, our challenges may continue. So I find the perception that this is a "win now" move puzzling.

AA may have more moves this week to take us up the curve, but we have less top level prospects to make it happen. So we'll see. May be We move JB or EE to consumate a major SP deal, but suspect it would take a 3 way deal. Time will tell

TangledUpInBlue,

That doesn't impress me - Reyes tenure here was a disaster - if using WAR & fangraphs inflated (IMO) monetary value make you feel good about Reyes tenure, then good for you but I think the overwhelming sentiment would be the opposite.

if using "sentiment" makes you feel better about your position then good for you but the overwhelming objective evidence indicates the opposite.

Unburdening themselves of Troy and LaTroy, Colorado is now the De-Troyed Rock City Rockies.

Yeah, sorry.

Chuck. That. Is. Beautiful.

SInce we are now even more right handed than before, I wonder if AA has another trade up his sleeve that involves dealing one of our righties.

I think EE is definitely on the way out...whether now or in off season.

I guess this now frees up Urena as a trading chip going forward.

AA said otherwise in his press conference today. Plus, EE is 10 & 5.

Personally, the only position players I could realistically see being dealt off the 25 man roster at this point are Navarro, Travis, Colabello, Valencia and Carrera, and obviously only one of those is going to net any sort of reasonable return, and not likely for a large LH bat.  Here's hoping that AA continues to use his prospect surplus in a deal for an arm or two (or a LH swinging LF, since I'm not confident Saunders will be playing ball this year at this point). 

Unburdening themselves of Troy and LaTroy, Colorado is now the De-Troyed Rock City Rockies.
Yeah, sorry.

No apologies necessary.  Pun, check.  Reference to old rock band, check.  We have our "Dad  joke of the day" winner. 

With Ben Zobrist, the Royals are looking Daunting.

Anthopoulos has now acquired (arguably) the best catcher, third baseman, and shortstop in MLB, all since the end of last season.

3 positions we thought were already set.

Reyes tenure here was a disaster

Something I discovered recently: Reyes was tied for sixth in the American League in runs scored last year, with 94. A large part of this is because Bautista and EE were hitting behind him, but that's not actually bad.

I contend that Reyes wasn't horrible: he was extremely injury-prone, and wasn't worth what he was being paid, but he's still a decent enough hitter for a shortstop.

I expect another shoe to drop before the deadline. But - not the way we really want.

AA will get his starter. It won't be an "ace" - BUT - it'll be an upgrade over our #4/#5 guys but that's it. ALSO - I hereby predict that Travis will be included in the package. Possibly, if I'm wrong there it'll be Pillar that's going, with Pompey coming up. AA will be gambling that losing a young starting position player will be balanced by his signing another star like Tulo.

There is still a chance that AA loses Travis and or Pillar (plus one or two more young arms) and gets his starting pitcher + gets a LFer who might surprise us. Hopefully, surprises us in a happy face way.

Hawkins is a serious addition. Perhaps a good enough addition to the pen to allow the team to put Sanchez back in Doubront's spot in the rotation...and there is pen friendly Yoda Joba lurking in AAA as well...

Last night I shut down the computer at 9.38 PST (12.38 AM EST) I was sure that the NInja was safely in his Blue Jays jammies, had finished his milk and cookies and was dreaming of ponies and whatever else GM's dream of when they sleep. I was wrong. That is my subtle way of indicating that the above predictions do not come with guarantees...

but why in the world would AA trade Travis?  upgrade SS only to downgrade 2b, when the best case for upgrading at SS seems to be Dave Cameron's argument that you are better off adding to a good offense then trying to patch holes? 

also, why would he trade for a LF when he already has that LF - certainly one of Pompey or Saunders will have the role locked down by the end of the year when we are hopefully playing meaningful ball for the first time in 20 years. 

one of Valencia, Cola or Smoak could be dealt as part of a package for a starter, but with Hawkins and Sanchez in the pen at the moment, that's the only move I can see AA making. 

Why would Anthopoulos trade Travis?  The club isn't exactly bursting with second base options, and Travis is a terrific asset (possibly the most valuable on the club at this point, bearing in mind that Donaldson surely will do well in arbitration this time around!). 

Coke to jerjapan.

Two possibilities.

(1) Colorado sees qualitative red flags around Tulowitzki and wants to get out while the getting's good. His K/BB has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction this year.
(2) Colorado is insane.

I guess it could be a little bit of both. Still, this is very exciting. If you want your trade to look good in hindsight, sending pitchers to Denver is the way to go. Although Reyes is going from one of the worst parks for his skillset to one of the best, and it'll be kind of funny if he ends up hitting .350 the rest of the way.

Yeah why would they trade Travis? That makes zero sense.

I see one of two things happening.

1. They go for a 3/4 starter who is a rental but only costs like a B prospect (say a Reid-Foley)
2. They go for a controlled starter (controlled as through at least next year) like Carrasco/Ross/Cashner/etc and give up Norris, one of Pompey or Alford and probably another strong pitcher (maybe someone like Smoral or even Sanchez). Of course who they give up has a lot to do with what they get. Ross would be more expensive than Fiers/Cashner.

With Tulo now on board it makes no sense for the Jays to make a Cueto deal for 10-12 starts. This team is loaded for next year with all players under control and Stroman coming back and more development from the young players. Even Dickey with how he's been playing for the last month or two would probably be worth his option.

I'm guessing Norris+ for Shark.

Reid-Foley is not a B prospect.....easily in our top 5 now.

I don't think AA has any interest in acquiring Shark nor do I think WS are going to deal him as they are still in it.

If anything else happens, like today it will be something that has not been rumoured or suggested.

for Iwakuma then.

Everything that AA said in this conference today says he doesn't want to do rentals. Uglyone how does it make sense to ship prospects for a player who they can control for years and then ship more for a player they get 10 starts out of? I don't see him overpaying for a rental when really the big year for this team will be nest year.

Once you drain some of the Coors air from Tulowitzki's numbers (he's a career .276/.349/.468 hitter at sea level) he's not a huge offensive upgrade on Reyes. He is still a darn good hitter for a shortstop, I grant you, and he's certainly a defensive upgrade. I wonder if Gibbons will just plug him into Reyes' spot at the top of the batting order, remembering how young Travis totally stopped hitting (.193/.264/.313) when he took his crack at leading off in Reyes' absence..

Colorado sees qualitative red flags around Tulowitzki and wants to get out while the getting's good. His K/BB has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction this year.

Maybe, but his fly balls are actually going further this year.  He is probably going to be a terror in the Rogers Centre. 

Dan Symborski went into this on twitter. Tulo's career road OPS is 817 which is basically the same as Jeter's career OPS, and is basically top ten of all time for a SS. He's fantastic offensively when healthy, and this division unlike the west is vastly better for offensive players. Sure Denver is a big offensive park, but so is Toronto and LA, SF and San Diego are not hitters parks while Yankee Stadium, Boston and Camden are.

Tulowitzki has a career wRC+ of 124; Reyes' is 106.  And Tulowitzki is a couple of years younger, so you would expect his rate of decline to be slower (ZIPS and Steamer actually project Tulowitzki to do better than his career norm over the rest of 2014 because he was so good in 2013 and 2014).  wRC+ is park-adjusted and includes the effects of base stealing.  124 vs. 106 is pretty big

I guess we'll find out about the quality of his defence in the next week or two.  "Troy, this is Devon.  I think you'll get along just fine."

wRC+ adjusts for coors and tells us he's a very large upgrade over Reyes.

and of course we could just look at only his road numbers:

2015: 129wrc+
2014: 126wrc+
2013: 135wrc+
Career: 119wrc+

This is a legit big bat we're getting here, not a league average one like reyes.

I'd be happy if we could do something to free up the DH position though. EE as someone who they don't really want to play at 1b is taking a lot from the team if he's only producing 2 war instead of 4 war. But if we could free that spot up then we could really cycle that position. Give Donaldson, Tulo, Martin and Bautista each a day at DH this week and then use Colabello/etc for the other 2-3 days.

I agree that EE is now surplus and should be moved though I expect it more likely to happen in the off season.

AA just said on air that he could have closed on another trade today but decided to wait.

A win is a win, whether you're supplementing a strength or addressing a weakness (aside from any preference you may have as a fan for a 2-1 win over a 10-8 win, or vice-versa). I'm just as content to win every game of a playoff series 15-14.

Despite the rumours about Carrasco and Fiers, I was afraid AA would go after one of the higher-price rentals at the cost of a premium and supplementary prospect. Instead, he went in an entirely different direction with a move I'm quite happy with.

I don't have much to add to add to the analysis above, but I fully support the Tulo-Reyes swap. The last year or two of Tulo's contract may resemble this year/the end of Reyes' contract, but Tulo is starting for a higher peak both offensively and defensively and will hopefully age more slowly. Regardless, in 2015 and 2016, Tulowitzki is a significant upgrade over Reyes on both columns of the ledger. I'd prefer to have dealt Hoffman compared to the other top prospects in the system and Gerry hit the nail on the head with Castro, you can't let an arm you project to end up as a reliever kill this trade, no matter how good a reliever he may be.

Devon Travis is only traded if a huge upgrade is coming back in trade. Pompey and Norris are our top Trade Value Prospects are they not?

Does Edwin or Jose move? I don't think so. So we wait and see what happens next.

Next move(s) I'd like to see?

Leake and Bruce from Cinci (speculate on what it would take)
Edwin for prospects. I know it wouldn't be hugely popular to move EE, but it's a move that is coming at some point I would think. There is a market for RH power bats right now as well.

Bruce in and EE out moves Cola out of the field to DH (thank god), Smoak to 1st permanently. Carrera to the bench (or to Cinci in deal)

Outfield of Bruce/Pillar/JBau, infield of Donaldson/Tulo/Travis/Smoak/Martin. Cola DH

Possible?

Anything's possible. But this suggestion is more far-fetched than most. Bruce would cost a ton given he has 2 more years at reasonable rates. Many of us would much rather see the in-house left field solution, Dalton Pompey. And Edwin has the right to refuse any trade, as a 10-and-5 player. I can see the Jays asking Edwin if he'd be willing to move in the offseason, but not mid-season.

Disagree with your response on a couple of points Mike. First, the only thing conventional about this trade was the timing, and even that, according to reports, is on the Rockies as Anthopoulos has been chasing this trade since last offseason. Determining it was cheaper to upgrade a strength further has not been standard operating procedure for MLB GMs and the safe play was to add a starting pitcher even if it meant over-paying.

Second, of course this is a "win now" move but that does not preclude it being a "future win" as well. In fact, the acquisition likely extends the Jays window of competitiveness with this core, regardless of what happens with Bautista and Encarnacion.

Lastly, the thought that team ownership would approved a deal taking on this amount of future salary to allow a GM one last desperate attempt at contention is not how I would imagine this situation would typically play out. Maybe I am wrong on this point, but I doubt it. This is not Omar Minaya and the Montreal (MLB) Expos. If anything I believe it may show just the opposite, that ownership is committed to Anthopoulos long-term despite Beeston's departure at the end of the season.

Magpie, do you think Travis put up those numbers in the leadoff spot because he can't handle hitting at the top of the order, or because he took a ball in the shoulder and played through it for three weeks before going on the DL for six weeks?

of course this is a "win now" move

Only if they supplement it with pitching help. Otherwise it's just a "win a couple of more" move for a .500 team.

What is next trade ?

EE ? Whichever team EE goes, the Jays shall let Matt Hague take advantage of his absence. Hague can play 3B while Cola cannot.
Navarro ? Is Navarro/Thole tale still going on ?

cybercavalier, are you the Matt Hague or just related to him?  Your unstinting support of him is a joy to behold.

Hague is an asset that we should be utilizing in some manner.

As I noted before, when the Jays' triple-A affiliate was Syracuse Skychiefs, a user of this website raised a concern of a minor leaguer David Smith whom in the user's perspective was underserved for his chance to play in Toronto. Now I more or less see a history's repeat in Matt Hague so I have raised a concern. Anyway, please understand that I do not intend to irritate fellow readers or users.

Regarding trading away EE, the Cleveland Indians lacks a true 1B/DH. Can the Jays get something from the Indians ?

do you think Travis put up those numbers in the leadoff spot because he can't handle hitting at the top of the order [or because he was playing hurt]

A bit of both, although I definitely wouldn't say he can't handle it. It's much more likely that he simply got out of his game a little bit - "I'm batting leadoff, I need to try to get on base" - instead of being himself. Happens all the time.

Now that would be fun.  Send EE and prospects to Cleveland for Carrasco.  Cleveland would need to extend EE's contract for a lot I suspect to waive the no-trade rights he has.  Don't see that happening.  Maybe for Yan Gomes who has a 63 OPS+ this year and is signed through 2019 for just over $20  mil.  Suddenly that terrible trade doesn't look as horrible.

Jonathan Papelbon traded for a 22 year old AA starter (Nick Pivetta).  Washington gets him and pays none of his salary this year and $11 mil next with $3 mil deferred.  Kind of surprised AA didn't offer something better.

Nick Pivetta was #10 on BA's prospect list of Washington prospects 6 months ago. And he's currently #10 on Phillies prospect list on mlb, and outside the top 100.

Certainly low level value. So Paplebon for 1.3 years for $11 mil + B-/C+ prospect seems like a pretty good deal to me. I'd have done that deal sending over a Boyd or Greene instead of Pivetta.

No telling Philadelphia would have done it. Or that Paplebon would have accepted Toronto with his limited no trade deal.

I hear Papelbon is a complete clubhouse cancer. Nobody wanted him. Phillies had to pay someone else to take him.