Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Matt Hague and Ryan McBroom Bring the Boomsticks

Matt Hague and Ryan McBroom Bring the Boomsticks

Buffalo came back from a six run deficit to beat the Red Sox. Matt Hague had a home run and five RBI. Lansing had a home run from Ryan McBroom to squeak out a 2-1 win. Vancouver were the third winner on Sunday.

Dunedin took a 1-0 lead to the ninth and lost in extras. Conner Greene had a nice start. New Hampshire and Bluefield lost not so close games.

Buffalo 11 Pawtucket 10

Buffalo scored three runs in the top of the first but soon were down 9-3 after three innings. Andrew Albers suffered some post pan-am fallout and was the victim of the Red Sox barrage. Todd Redmond threw some gas on the fire after Albers left in the third inning. Redmond gave up another run in the fifth but then four relievers shut the door. Of note, Miguel Castro pitched another inning. In that inning a lead off double was followed by three ground balls, and no run scored.

A walk and three singles got the Bisons their three runs in the first, new Bison Ty Kelly had a two RBI single. The comeback started in the seventh when two walks preceded a three run bomb from Matt Hague. The four run eighth saw seven Bisons reach base, Hague singled in a run, a run scored on an error, Andy Burns doubled in a run but the final coup de grace came on an anti-climactic bases loaded walk. Hague finished the day with three hits and 5 RBI. Burns, Alex Hassan, Ty Kelly and Jon Diaz each had two hits. Dalton Pompey was 1-4 with two walks.

New Hampshire 2 Portland 7

Portland took a 2-0 lead, New Hampshire tied it in the fifth, but then Portland tacked on five in the fifth and sixth to win. last time out Casey Lawrence was dominant but not on this day. He did go five but ten hits and five runs in five innings was an "ouch". Luis Perez continued his up and down season by conceding two runs in the sixth.

Ryan Schimpf, fresh in from Buffalo, led the team with three hits, including a home run in the fourth. KC Hobson, who had two hits, scored the other run with an RBI single from Roemen Fields.

Dunedin 1 Charlotte 2 - 10 innings

Dunedin took a 1-0 lead in the first inning and it held until the ninth. Wil Browning came in for the save and surrendered a lead off triple that scored on a sac fly. Browning was still on the mound in the tenth when a lead off single led to a winning walk off single. The hard luck starter was Conner Greene who retired the first 13 hitters. Greene went six shutout innings with just three hits and no walks allowed. He had four K's.

Dunedin's only run was a typical Dunedin run. Anthony Alford walked, stole second and scored when Matt Dean singled. The Jays had just seven hits, Mitch Nay was the only Jay with two.

Dayton 1 Lansing 2

Both teams scored in the first inning, Lansing's run came when Jason Leblebijian singled in Chris Carlson. That was it until the sixth inning, when Ryan McBroom took matters into his own hands and jacked one to left for the winning run. Carlson and David Harris each had two hits.

Conor Fisk pitched 7.1 innings of three hit ball for the win. Three relievers kept Dayton off the board.

Vancouver 6 Everett 2

Vancouver scored first, two runs in the third inning. JC Cardenas doubled in the first run with Justin Atkinson later singling in Cardenas. The C's put up another 2 spot in the fifth, Ryan Hissey singled in one and Atkinson added the second on a ground out. Cardenas scored the fifth run in the seventh, he singled and scored on a double from Andrew Guillotte. Ryan Metzler doubled to lead off the eighth and scored the sixth and final run on a ground out.

The starter and winner was Francisco Rios who went five innings while allowing two runs. Michael Kraft and Bob Wheatley finished up.

Danville 8 Bluefield 6

The Jays went down early and that hole was too big. Starter Tayler Saucedo was charged with five runs in four innings. Miguel Burgos gave up 2 runs in 3 innings and Tyler Burden one in 2 innings.

Gabriel Clark hit his fourth home run in the first inning, a two run shot. The Jays scored three runs in the sixth with Jacob Anderson doubling in two runs in his first start of 2015. Rodrigo Orozco and Nick Sinay each had two hits.

3 Stars

3rd star: Conor Fisk

2nd star: Ryan McBroom

1st star: Matt Hague

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:37 AM EDT.

Matt Hague and Ryan McBroom Bring the Boomsticks | 43 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#305970) #

Conner Greene had a nice game. 16 of his 18 outs were GO's or k's.

uglyone - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#305985) #

CF D.Pompey (21-22)

MLB: 134pa, 7.5bb%/25.4k%, .259babip/.205avg, .164iso/7.5spd, 77wrc+
AAA: 208pa, 11.1bb%/15.4k%, .358babip/.297avg, .086iso/7.2spd, 120wrc+
AA: 275pa, 9.1bb%/14.9k%, .361babip/.325avg, .187iso/7.3spd, 158wrc+
A+: 317pa, 11.0bb%/17.7k%, .380babip/.319avg, .152iso/8.6spd, 150wrc+

jerjapan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#305987) #

Hey Ugly, while on vacation, I'm trying to modernize my understanding of stats (which I know is supremely nerdy). hanging out on the box has helped me quite a bit, but what are the easiest / best sites to get the most up to date / valuable stats? i often have a hard time finding modern metrics for minor leaguers.

also, if you (or anyone else) had to pick 3 critical stats, what would they be? i often

Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#305988) #

For fun, I ran a Play Index with centerfielders who had an OPS+ between 75 and 85, and a BABIP less than .300 through age 22. Pompey had the lowest BABIP of the 12. The next lowest was Curt Flood who had an OPS+ of 78 and a BABIP of .261 through age 22. Flood's on-field troubles were about to end, as he became a helluva player from age 23 on (he had put up 42 WAR by age 31 when the legal battles began- I hadn't thought of him as a Hall of Fame caliber outfielder but for comparison purposes Andre Dawson had posted 48 WAR by age 31 so he wasn't far off the pace).

Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#305990) #

Others who fit the criteria were Johnny Damon, Lloyd Moseby, Gary Geiger and the original Frank Thomas (who had a pretty good career).

Chuck - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#305991) #

also, if you (or anyone else) had to pick 3 critical stats, what would they be?

#1 would be production. That's a Buck and Pat thing and I'm not really sure what it means. Something to do with RBIs I think.

#2 would be the pitcher's metric "giving your team a chance to win, and that's all you can do". The units of measurement are always and sometimes. Mark Buehrle gets an always.

#3 would be "playing the game the right way". This is also measured by always and sometimes.

Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#305992) #

#1 would be production. That's a Buck and Pat thing and I'm not really sure what it means. Something to do with RBIs I think.

Close, Chuck. It's broken bats. Professional baseball is simply a clever materialist cover for splinter production. They don't call him Joey Bats for nothing.

jerjapan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#305994) #

hahaha.

so chuck, what are the actual three stats? or do you just want to take shots at a genuine effort to learn?

Chuck - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#305995) #

so chuck, what are the actual three stats?

I'd suggest visiting both FG and BBRef. Both have something useful to offer. Others can recommend their favourite metrics.

jerjapan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#305996) #

thanks Chuck, visited both, that's the starting point, and I assume that everyone on the box knows that. i read the definitions and look at the numbers - my problem is that I'm not skillful with the math, and I'm having difficulty figuring, for example, the difference between FIP, xfip, sierra in real terms - I get the definitions, but don't know how to use them to learn something - like how could i use those three stats to understand the performance of our pitching staff right now.

or why people are so attached to ISO. or how to use multiple defensive metrics to come up with something more predictive than the eye test. that sort of stuff.

in my mind, there is a wealth of statistical knowledge round these parts. I'd just like to tap into some of it.

Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#305997) #

...or you could take the scholarly approach and go back to an early Bill James Baseball Abstract, immerse yourself in sabermetric thinking and incidentally learn about Runs Created and Base Runs, and then move forward from there. It's harder but there is some richness to be found. The original Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract is somewhat less significant than the collective works of William Shakespeare, but still well worth reading for a baseball fan.

Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#305998) #

OK, jerjapan. If you want to assess a pitching staff, you can start with fangraphs team pitching page and the BBRef American League 2015 page. You'll see that Blue Jays pitchers have struck out 7.1 batters/9 IP (somewhat less than league average), walked 2.8 batters/9IP (spot on league average) and allowed 1.1 HRs/9IP (slightly more than league average). Opponents have a .289 BABIP which is league average. It all adds up to a 4.07 ERA, a 4.10 FIP and a 4.03 xFIP and 4.33 runs per game allowed. All figures are modestly below league average.

The big issue for the relievers has been the results in high leverage situations, which have been discussed at length here. If you go to the Blue Jay team page and go to pitching splits, you'll see that the performance is worse in high leverage situations, with the driver being a .318 BABIP (vs. .297 in medium leverage and .275 in low leverage). For comparison purposes, you go the BBRef league page for league-wide pitching splits by leverage ( .293 BABIP in high-leverage, .299 in medium leverage and .290 in low leverage).

Chuck - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#305999) #

in my mind, there is a wealth of statistical knowledge round these parts. I'd just like to tap into some of it.

There's probably not one single source for you. The earliest text I saw, Earnshaw Cook's Percentage Baseball, was from the 1960s (a friend had stolen it from the library in his childhood). The older folks around here, myself included, likely cut our teeth on the Bill James Abstracts from the late 70s and early 80s. Pete Palmer and John Thorn wrote the Hidden Game of Baseball in the mid-80s (introducing Linear Weights) and finally, after many many years, that book has finally been reprinted and made available again. And Craig Wright and Tom House capped off the 80s with The Diamond Appraised.

From there, I believe it's fair to say that the Baseball Prospectus probably became the leading voice, though not without Don Malcolm as a persistent gadfly. BP moved from linear data models to neural networks, which was a fascinating transition. The prominent voices now are probably those at FG and BBRef.

Oh, and Voros McCracken gets a tip of the hat for FIP. Bill James got mad when he saw it because he was disappointed for not having thought have of it himself.

And if you don't want to go back to these seminal texts, perhaps just ask pointed questions (What is the meaning and value of ISO? What's the difference between FIP and xFIP? What's with the differences in everyone's defensive metrics?) and I'm sure people here will weigh in, though perhaps not always in agreement.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#306000) #

.or you could take the scholarly approach and go back to an early Bill James Baseball Abstract,

That's an excellent idea. And it will no doubt be more interesting than staring at a website. Not the Historical Abstract, i agree with Mike on that, but the annual abstracts that came out every year from the early 80's to some point in the 90's. Good reads and with some history built in.

Alex Obal - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#306001) #

i often have a hard time finding modern metrics for minor leaguers

Minor League Central is great and offers far more detailed splits than Fangraphs. If by "modern" you mean defensive metrics for minor leaguers, I think that's a data issue - there are no public servants tracking them in the field as assiduously as Baseball Info Solutions does big leaguers.

Also suggest reading this short article. If you truly understand regression to the mean (the key phrase there is "the difficulty in choosing the mean towards which we expect a player to regress") you will be way ahead of an overwhelming majority of fans, possibly including me. It's a shortcut to wisdom.

Alex Obal - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#306002) #

Uh, scratch Minor League Central, since apparently they stopped updating sometime in June. It was great! Not sure what happened there.

uglyone - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#306004) #

jer - i use fangraphs because i think they have all the important stats. they also have the milb stats....and milb gamelogs which you can create splits from by date.

for me the stats i now use are:

1. Overall Performance - wRC+ - this is basically just a refined version of ops+. it weights the obp and slg parts of ops more correctly via run values, and then it adjusts for park factors and then scales it all to league average. (i.e. 100 = league avg, 120 = 20% above). this is ESPECIALLY useful for minor league stats imo because league averages are so crazy different. so if you're worried about PCL inflation, for example, wRC+ takes care of that. (though it doesn't adjust milb stats for park factors so a park like in Las Vegas can still skew numbers).

2.Plate Discipline - BB% and K%. the numbers of walks and strikeouts per plate appearance. MLB average bb% is somewhere around 8% and strikeouts about double that. over 10bb% is good and over 20k% is a concern unless there's plenty of power there. if K% and BB% are close together that's very good.

3. Contact - AVG and BABIP (and K%). we all understand what a good average is i think. BABIP helps us see how much luck there is. MLB average babip is aeound .300. We usually expect a player's babip to end up at that level but Some players can consistently beat that through super contact ability (e.g. votto or jeter), or by great speed. Some will be consistently lower than that due to an inordinate amount of HR (bautista). of note - milb babips for good prospects are usually much higher than mlb avg. K% also helps us get a read on a player's contact tool...especially at the milb level.

4. Power - ISO. This is just SLG-AVG. Best indicator of ppwer we have. Anything much under .150 isn't a lot of power, while anything over .200 is plenty of it.

5. Speed - SB /CS. Or actually this metric on fangraphs called Spd. I just started using it and it passes the smell test i think. I believe it's on a scale of 10 where 5 is average.

those are really the only hitting stats i look at anymore. I think they give us the best look at all the individual offensive tools.

uglyone - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#306006) #

for pitching I use:

1. ERA-

This is era adjusted for run environment and set to league average. 100 is league average and the lower the better.

2. FIP-

FIP looks at only things directly under the pitcher's control - walks, Ks, and HR. any other contact involves other players. It weights each according to run values then puts it on an era scale for convenience. Small sample FIP predicts future ERA better than small sample ERA does. FIP- takes FIP and adjusts it to run environment and scales it to league average.

3. XFIP-

xFIP looks at FIP and says "well hey, HR can be pretty fluky, so let's see what happens if we set each pitchers HR per flyball percentage to league average". It turns out to be a good idea, as xFIP does an even better job predicting future ERA than FIP does. xFIP- scales xfip to league average.

4. SIERA. Siera looks at fip and xfip and says "well, i'm glad you guys are more predictive and all, but let's be real - not all contact is made equal and it's silly to assume that a pitcher has non influence on the quality of balls in play". So Siera decides to come up with an insanely complicated way of factoring in batted ball data and park factors to demonstrate a pitcher's influence on balls in play....and it works. SIERA ends up beating XFIP as a predictor, too. Unfortunately, even though imo this is the best stat out there fangraphs kinda overlooks it a bit and doesn't even give us a SIERA- to look at. still the best stat for my money tho.

5. K% & BB%. These are more accurate than K/9 or bb/9, as they don't let a pitcher like morrow goose his k/9 just by facing way more batters per inning. over 30k% is elite and under 20 isn't so hot. under 10bb% is good. These are especially important for prospects as the lack of Ks can really show reasons for concern beyond a good stats line.

6. BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB%. These are the luck factors. .300babip, 75lob%, and 10hr/fb% are around league average. anything wignificantly above or below that probably indicates some flukiness that will correct itself over time.

uglyone - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#306007) #

as for defenss UZR and DRS both seem pretty good, but there's all sorts of noise there. looks like there's a whole new wave of defenwive stats coming through the new tech, tho, which may change all that.

jerjapan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#306008) #

wow, stepped out to get some groceries and food this wealth of feeback. Thanks all! I have some vacation reading ahead of me.

Gerry - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#306014) #

Jeff Blair said today that Norris and Boyd are the players the Jays would trade. Norris is starting tonight and as they say he is pitching for all 30 teams.

AA must be hoping that Norris, like Cueto and Hamels at the weekend, pitches a top notch game.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#306020) #

I think Norris will be staying put. Over 3 innings, four hits and four walks and the Herd is trailing Syracuse 5-0.

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#306021) #

To add insult to injury, two of the hits off Norris were by Trea Turner (drafted #13 overall last year), whom the Jays could have had instead of Pentecost (#9).

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#306022) #

Correction: Hoffman was selected #9 overall. Pentecost was the #11 selection.

Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#306023) #

Well, that'd be more adding non injury (Turner) to double injury (Pentacost). Of course, the revisionist draft technique is generally a one-sided game, where everyone remembers one of the options that exceeds expectations (like Turner) and not the ones that fall flat (say, the other Sale from 2010).

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#306024) #

I actually think the Jays have drafted pretty well overall. Speaking of which, another player in tonight's game, Pompey, was drafted in the 16th round. Pretty astute selection.

Turner looks like a pretty decent prospect, though. He has hit at all levels in the minors and is already in AAA (reportedly with average defense at SS), while Pentecost can barely throw a baseball.

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#306025) #

have drafted pretty well overall *under Anthopoulos*, I mean.

Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#306026) #

Right, but I think of it like shifting. You (greater You, not you specifically, greenfrog) shouldn't be worrying about that time you got beat using it, or that pick that was better a few spots down (unless there's something specific going on internally, like the Romero/Tulowitzki scenario). You should look at the aggregate trends and see how they go.

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#306027) #

Thanks, Spifficus. Good advice, if not always easy to put into practice when you recall individual selections (DJ Davis (#17) over Corey Seager (#18) in 2012, for example, or Bickford over Crawford in 2013 - and now Pentecost over Turner).

As long as the Jays get it right in the aggregate, though, I'll remind myself to be content with the organization's drafting...

Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#306028) #

Also, because of the particular drafting strategy AA used of high school projectability (especially early), we're only now seeing what his first draft has to offer. Of course, it didn't help that McGuire, the exception to that rule, didn't pan out. Even with his failure and the failure of almost all of the bats, though, it looks like it has a good chance to be a fruitful draft.

Kasi - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#306029) #

Well if we go down that route we can always talk about Jenkins over Trout.

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#306030) #

If you want to take the revisionism even further, the Jays no doubt could have had Carrasco in the Halladay trade for the asking. Drabek was the marquee name, but I remember one scout at the time thought that Carrasco could end up being the better arm. He was right, and then some.

Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#306031) #

That would have been a nifty trick, considering Carrasco was dealt to the Indians in the first Philly Cliff Lee trade at the deadline before the Halladay trade.

cruzin - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#306033) #

As much as we've talked about Norris's struggles at Buffalo, I'm getting more concerned with Castro. Here's a guy that has the arm and even though I understand it was just spring training in where dazzled, I didn't expect him to be hit around like this in the minors.

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#306034) #

True, but the Jays were in heavy negotiations with the Phillies in late July 2009, and Carrasco was one of the names being floated. Here's an excerpt from the constant updates on MLBTR at the time:

10:55am: Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail says many top Blue Jays people are deciding whether to trade Halladay. It's not just Ricciardi's decision.

Meanwhile, SI's Tom Verducci weighs in. He talked to a scout who spoke of an organizational "tug of war" in Philly, with Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel pushing the win-now move for Doc while Ruben Amaro Jr. and other player development guys are reluctant to move top prospects.

Verducci says Carlos Carrasco doesn't do anything for the Jays, and they'll require either Drabek or Jason Knapp. The Angels and Dodgers are the other top suitors for Halladay, in Verducci's opinion.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/roy-halladay-rumors-tuesday-2.html

greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#306035) #

I wish the Jays had "required" Carrasco instead of Drabek or Knapp.

Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#306038) #

Oh, I know, but that whole attempted deadline deal was even messier than that. I thought Happ was also one of the must-haves.

China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#306041) #

"...I didn't expect him to be hit around like this in the minors...."

For Castro, as it was for Sanchez, it's a little difficult to evaluate his minor-league games this season because of the injury and the rehab games. He did allow a run in one inning for Buffalo tonight. Before that, he hadn't allowed any runs in his previous 5 outings (totaling 5 innings) at the AAA level. He was hit around in earlier games, but those games date back to early July when I believe he was still recovering from the earlier injury. He's still just 20 years old and pitching to older players at the AAA level. It might be a bit early to be concerned about him.

Joba Chamberlain, meanwhile, had a good debut for Buffalo tonight: 2 strikeouts and a groundout in his inning of work, with no walks or hits.

cruzin - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#306047) #

"It might be a bit early to be concerned about him."

Yeah you're probably right and I need to lower my expectations. But I saw a great arm with potential make the MLB team out of spring. While it wasn't a great shock to see him demoted, I did expect much better thing in the minors. And even though as you pointed he hasn't given up runs in previous 5 outings. Unfortunately, they weren't clean innings where he dominated.

finch - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:04 AM EDT (#306062) #

TULO FOR REYES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lylemcr - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:45 AM EDT (#306087) #

Sources say it is not Hoffman or Norris, but Castro and Colorado is eating some of the contract...

If they are eating the contract, that means the Jays have money. I think this is part one of a couple trades.

Also, if it is just Castro. Not a bad deal at all.

Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#306097) #

They've said no money is involved.

Michael - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 03:45 AM EDT (#306135) #

On the plus side, no one needs to worry too much about Castro anymore. :)

Matt Hague and Ryan McBroom Bring the Boomsticks | 43 comments | Create New Account

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