30. John Stilson
This looks like another lost year for Stilson and, with his injury history, he is now a forgotten man. He could come back and be a decent reliever but the odds are stacked against him. Shoulder troubles are big troubles. DOWN
29. Matt Dean
We all know that it is tough to hit well in the FSL. Dean has lost about 20 points off his batting average, OBP and SLG in his move from Lansing to Dunedin. He also plays first base which needs a lot of hits, and big hits, to get noticed. On the positive side his numbers are above average for the FSL. I am in between considering his prospects unchanged as a #29 prospect or down. He is still 22 years old so I will say UNCHANGED.
28. Dan Jansen
Jansen missed time with an injury last year and this year he has just 115 at-bats in Lansing. On the field Jansen got off to a slow start but was beginning to pick it up before he was injured. The Jays have had a lot of catcher injuries recently, particularly with AJ Jimenez, Derrick Chung and Max Pentecost. Jansen is just 20 and I will leave his prospects as unchanged but he needs a full season next year. Jansen might be too young for a winter trip to Australia but the Jays might consider it. UNCHANGED.
27. Alberto Tirado
This has been a much better season for Tirado after his disappointing 2014. His K rate per 9 is at 8.8 and his walks are down from last year albeit still a little high. Hitters are hitting just .214 off him. It remains to be seen whether the Jays will try him as a starter again but for now he has re-established his value. If he profiles as a reliever then his status is unchanged at #27 but I suspect the Jays will try him as a starter, maybe as soon as next year, so I will say UP.
26. Andy Burns
Burns is holding his own in AAA. He is playing all over the field to establish his value as a utility player. Burns is a relatively aggressive hitter with a low K rate at a lowish walk rate. He makes good contact but doesn't have a lot of power. Burns is likely to see some major league time but in these days of shorter benches it could be hard for a player like Burns who is not a superior defender to stick in the AL. I could see him as having more value to an NL team where substitutions are more common and his versatility plays better. UNCHANGED
25. DJ Davis
Everyone would agree that Davis has shown some improvement this year, his second season at Lansing. Specifically Davis' K rate has dropped from 30% to 20% and his BABIP has increased from .299 to .352. However Davis just passed his 22nd birthday and he is in A ball with a weighted RC+ of 114. Davis is better, I am not sure if he is top prospect worthy better and at 20 he needs to get on track for the majors by next year.. I don't think I can say down, given his improvements which might get him on a roll next year so I will say UNCHANGED.
24. Matt Boyd
With a trip to the major leagues this year Boyd's visibility is a lot higher. He is more of a control pitcher and probably needs all of 2015 and some of 2016 in the minors to tighten his control. In AAA Boyd has a K rate of almost 9 and he walks almost no-one, he is from the Buehrle school of pitching. Even if his major league stay was brief, he has done well for a #24 prospect on the doorstep to the major leagues. I say UP.
23. Taylor Cole
The trip to AA has been a bit rough for Taylor Cole. He goes from decent start to bad start and it's hard to know which is the real Taylor Cole. But we do know that his K rate is down from the FSL and his WHIP is up quite a bit. Cole's fastball was always under question given its velocity and its straightness. Cole has been tagged as a future reliever and I could see the Jays making that move next year. Meanwhile this year has not been very good so for me it's DOWN.
22. Anthony Alford
Alford turned 21 a couple of days ago. In his move from Lansing to Dunedin he has dropped his K rate from 26% to 17% and it must be noted his BB rate from 17% to 9%. The K/BB ratio has dropped just a little from Lansing to Dunedin but both ratios are good. Alford is playing well and seemingly getting better with experience. I don't need to cover all the Alford story here but it is no surprise that his prospects are way UP.
21. AJ Jimenez
Another lost season for Jimenez who must be off the prospect lists by now. DOWN.
20. Dawel Lugo
Lugo batted .219 for Dunedin before being sent down to Lansing. Lugo's K rate in Dunedin was not terrible at 18% but he rarely walks and his BABIP was just .262. That screams hacker and Lugo will have to get a better approach at the plate to progress. Defensively Lugo is fine but that's not the problem. Finally he is still 20 years old so time is on his side. DOWN
19. Ryan Borucki
Borucki got off to a late start due to elbow surgery in the off-season. In limited innings, three games, he has looked good but you always worry about pitcher elbows. UNCHANGED.
18. Lane Thomas
The Jays usually don't send high school hitters to Vancouver the year after their draft but they did send Thomas and so far the results have been mixed. He has a normal rate of strikeouts, is not walking much and his BABIP is just .200. Like Lugo he could be too aggressive. But when he connects, look out. Thomas has 23 hits but 14 of those have gone for extra bases. He seems to have excellent pop in his bat for a 19 year old. He was ranked at 18, there are reasons for optimism and cause for concern, so I will say UNCHANGED.
17. Sean Reid-Foley
when you are 19 and in Dunedin you are doing well. Reid-Foley has a very good arm and a K rate of over 10 in a small sample size in Dunedin. His weakness is walks, 6 per 9 innings in both Lansing and Dunedin. He seems to be following the Aaron Sanchez path to the majors. If he can fix his control he could be a major league starter like Sanchez, if not he could be a dominant reliever, like Sanchez. At 19 his status is UP.
16. Richard Urena
Another 19 year old in Dunedin. Urena's promotion was aggressive and unexpected and he has done OK in the FSL. His K rate is decent at 18% but he doesn't walk much, just 4% in Dunedin. Urena does have some pop but his biggest issue now is his switch hitting. In Lansing, Urena's OPS was .801 vs. righties and just .497 vs. lefties. His numbers are down in Dunedin to .574 vs. righties and .462 vs. lefties. In any event Urena has progressed well this season and if he returns to Dunedin to start 2016 he will be well positioned as a 20 year old in high A. UP.
15. Rowdy Tellez
It's always tough to rank first basemen as so many of them start elsewhere on the diamond. Tellez has had an excellent 2015 to date, he is controlling the strike zone and showing good power. He still has a ways to go to compete with the rejected outfielders and third basemen who populate first base in the major leagues but because he is 20 I will say UP.
13. Jairo Labourt
Labourt struggled at Lansing in the first half of 2014 but played better in Vancouver. The Jays surprisingly sent Labourt to Dunedin to start this year and he has pitched well, earning a trip to the futures game. Labourt is still a bit wild, 5 walks per 9, and his K rate is not exactly where you would like, it's at 7.5 per 9IP in Dunedin. His results have been mixed this year with some good starts and some wild starts. It is unclear whether he can be a starter or if he needs to move to the pen. Labourt is 21 years old. Because of the starter/reliever uncertainty my verdict is UNCHANGED.
12. Dwight Smith
Smith had a hot start to the season with an OPS of .839 in April However since then his OPS has been in the 600's. Smith has missed time due to injury and we don't know if something is lingering with him. However those numbers say that his prospects are DOWN.
11. Matt Smoral
Something is up with Matt Smoral. Here is what Doug Davis said about Smoral in an interview on Da Box a month ago: "The plan for Matt Smoral is to find a way to pitch. We wanted to get him away from extended spring, away from complex baseball, get him under the lights and even though he hasn't had a lot of success, get him into a normal baseball routine, something different than what he has been used to in the past. He has had some decent outings in Dunedin, he has had some tough outings, and I would expect that but its more important to give him the ball as often as we can, in more than one inning stints, and let him figure it out." Since then Smoral has hardly pitched while he works with the pitching coaches. He is a big guy but progress seems to be slow. Definitely DOWN.
10. Mitch Nay
Nay had poor numbers over the first three months but now has a .915 OPS in July. Is this a blip or a trend? We don't know but Nay has had an approach that let the ball travel deep in the zone that tended to produce all field hits but less power. The Jays tried to tinker with his swing to get him to pull the ball more and it seems like it didn't take and now he has gone back to his old self. Will that produce enough results for a major league third baseman? The Jays seem to have their doubts. Given the small sample size of the improvements I have to call a DOWN.
9. Miguel Castro
It was always risky to send a 19 year old up against major league hitters. Castro lost a few months to injury and only recently seems to be getting his form back. The Jays are keeping Castro as a reliever and it seems as though that might be his future. His results suggest a down verdict but a 19 year old with an arm like that on the cusp of the majors leaves me at UNCHANGED.
7. Max Pentecost
A lost season so far with shoulder issues which are career threatening for a catcher. DOWN.
6. Roberto Osuna
Not much to add, UP.
5. Jeff Hoffman
Hoffman has returned from TJ and is now in AA. It is hard to judge a pitcher in his first year back from surgery so I will withhold my verdict and say UNCHANGED.
3. Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez has shown he can be a good major league starter, albeit in a small sample size, and he has also shown that he is wild sometimes. There is no guarantees going from prospect lists to the major leagues so his string of good starts have me saying UP.
2. Dalton Pompey
He was rushed, it hurt his confidence and development, he is now getting back on track. UNCHANGED.
1. Daniel Norris
The path to the major leagues is tough as Norris is finding out. Norris wasn't terrible in pitching for the Jays and neither is he terrible for Buffalo. Norris's issue seems to be consistency, he can shut down a lineup for six out of seven innings but have one bad inning with 3 or 4 runs allowed. It seems as though Norris needs some time to mature a little but his prospect status is UNCHANGED.
SUMMARY
I feel like I must have wimped out on a lot of my verdicts with a lot of Unchanged. But I have 8 Up's, 8 Downs and 11 Unchanged for a normal distribution of results. The "UP's" are Aaron Sanchez; Roberto Osuna; Rowdy Tellez; Richard Urena; Sean Reid-Foley; Anthony Alford; Matt Boyd and Alberto Tirado. The "DOWN's" are Max Pentecost; Mitch Nay; Matt Smoral; Dwight Smith; Dawel Lugo; AJ Jimenez; Taylor Cole and John Stilson.
Non-Ranked
Here are some players who were unranked to start the year but who are looking to make their way onto a top 30 list.
Roemen Fields
Fields was a late sign to pro ball but has held his own and made small improvements to his numbers each month this year. He is still a long shot but like Alford his lack of experience gives him the opportunity to develop more than a typical hitter in AA.
Blake McFarland
In AA McFarland had a great 41-3 K/BB ratio to go with his 2.10 ERA. In AAA he is still striking out a hitter per inning but his walks and ERA have gone up but he has a chance for a September call-up.
Conner Greene
Greene is another Dunedin promotion at just 20 years old. His numbers are not as eye popping as some others but he does have 7.7 K9 in 4 starts and he doesn't walk many. He still needs to miss more bats but a FIP of 2.94 at age 20 in high A is good.
Jesus Tinoco
A 20 year old hard thrower who is trying to learn how to put away hitters.
Honourable mention, short season ball.
Clinton Hollon; Tom Robson; Jon Harris; Rodrigo Orozco; Yeltsin Gudino; Nick Wells; Angel Perdomo; Juliandry Higuera; Reggie Pruitt; Jose Espada.
Do you have any major disagreements? Did I miss anyone?
