I had mentioned in the ChiSox thread how Dyson is filling in for the injured Gordon and taking over in CF, moving the gold glove calibre Cain to LF. That's some defense!

Prior to Gordon's injury, I would have suggested that Alex Rios might be on borrowed time. But it would seem he has gained some measure of job security for the next two months.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports says pitching prospects Daniel Norris and Jeff Hoffman are getting attention from scouts

Every A-Frame GM had your number on the wall

Apologies. Just working with what you've given us. My work is indeed a scam.

The Blue Jays are only one game in the loss column ahead of the last place Red Sox and the Rays. They have lost three series in a row, including two four game series to teams with a losing record. I suspect losing consecutive four game series to sub .500 teams, is not the mark of a playoff bound team. They are 5 games behind the Yankees in the loss column and two behind the Orioles. They are in no better position for the Wild Card. The GBL fiction, predicated upon everyone playing .500 baseball is only of value when you know all other teams will be playing .500 ball. In the current circumstances, no matter how desperate the fan base is to 'go for it', I wouldn't expect there should be any trades of any valuable prospects for a few weeks of a rental player.

"....The Blue Jays are only one game in the loss column ahead of the last place Red Sox and the Rays...."

Weren't they the "first-place Rays" just a little while ago?   Shows how fast things can change in this division.

There's no doubt this has been an extremely frustrating couple of weeks for the Jays.  When they pitched well, the offense collapsed.  When they hit well, the pitching fell apart.  Surely they are due for a change of luck soon?  The offense is still powerful, from the top of the lineup to the bottom, and the bench has players who could start on most other clubs.  Buehrle and Dickey are pitching well, Estrada has been decent, Norris and Sanchez will be back soon.  It might be best to give Hutchison some time in the minors to refine his stuff.  A trade would really help, but even if there's no trade, there is help on the way, in the form of Norris and Sanchez and potentially Doubront if he continues to pitch well.  I don't see any reason to write off the season or give up on rentals or start selling veterans.

Jays are never gonna do it, without the Fez on.

Careful what you carry. The Man is wise.

No, you're never gonna get it
Never ever gonna get it (no, not this time)

I don't see any reason to write off the season or give up on rentals or start selling veterans.

I agree with you on the first and third at present. If they draw closer, then I think you start looking at trades.

The team has won most of Hutch's starts (he's 8-2). It would make a lot of sense to replace him with a good pitcher, but even if they did, it wouldn't affect the other 80% of games in which someone else start and the odds are the better pitcher will not do better than 8-2.

The Blue Jays lose too many games that they should win. Maybe that's just luck, but you can't trade for luck.

I don't mind trading prospects for the right player. I don't care how Graveman, etc. do in Oakland, we got freakin' Josh Donaldson! On the other hand, Noah Syndergard had 13 strikeouts in winning last night. I know hindsight makes it easy to judge a trade , but at the time I questioned the wisdom of trading a top pitching prospect for an ageing knuckleballer, albeit one that had won the Cy Young. It would have been worth it if Dickey had been the final piece to deliver a championship, but he wasn't and now we'll be gritting our teeth for years watching highlights of Noah blow batters away. In that vein, the only way I would approve trading a Norris or Hoffman is if we get a player who will be a star and play here for several years. I think that is the type of deal AA is looking for also.

Unless AA thinks his job in on the line and does something to improve the record this year.

I questioned the wisdom of trading a top pitching prospect for an ageing knuckleballer

Knuckleballers don't age. Dickey could still be here in 15 years.

Think on that and despair.

Unless AA thinks his job in on the line and does something to improve the record this year.

I doubt very much that Anthopolous would do anything he wouldn't do otherwise consider wise he fears "his job is on the line".

I hate watching this slump, but I do love this Royals team - great defense, speed, a breathtakingly good bullpen, and a young core that emerged together. 

Frightening to think that they are doing this with the reanimated corpse of Omar Infante at 2b and a starting rotation that's worse than ours.  Zobrist and Kazmir would certainly be nice adds for the.

Not that I'm writing off this year, but the Jays could be pretty good next year. Some needs for 2016 and beyond: SP (one, maybe two), an RP, maybe an excellent-fielding SS, if Anthopoulos wants to shake things up and go with a truly elite defense.

Chapman and Hamels would be great additions, but would no doubt cost too much in prospects (and Hamels might not waive his no-trade rights).

With Pompey, Norris, Stroman, Castro and others on the roster, and Buehrle's, Dickey's and Navarro's contracts off the books, the 2016 roster looks promising (although some player salaries, like those of Donaldson and Martin, will go up significantly next year).

It's time to move Travis up in this lineup.  Maybe 2nd and drop everyone a spot below him.

I doubt very much that Anthopolous would do anything he wouldn't do otherwise consider wise he fears "his job is on the line".

One of the many disadvantages of accumulating years is a lack of attentiveness. My gobbledygook sentence should have read:

I doubt very much that Anthopolous will do anything he wouldn't do otherwise, because he fears "his job is on the line".

Jose Reyes for Jon Niese would be a good trade for both teams right?

if your goal is dumping salary and selling low on an all-star SS, sure it is.  that seems like a fan trade more than a realistic one - how would the players react if we dealt one of our key vets for a mid-rotation starter?  we have a bunch of the those already, IMO ...

Reyes has been an All-Star SS in the past. I'm not sure he is one anymore.

Trading him now might be selling low. Then again, it might not. Sometimes a player's decline is gradual; sometimes it's steep.

selling low on an all-star SS

Not sure we can really call him an all-star SS any more. A once all-star shortstop, certainly.

Don't disagree on Niese, but yeah, Reyes ain't an All-Star.

Reyes' fWAR Shortstop ranking:

2015 - 14th
2014 - 6th
2013 - 15th

Add in the fact he's an injury prone 32 yr old with declining speed and range owed a minimum of $38 million over the next 2 yrs (or 56/3 yrs).

owed a minimum of $38 million over the next 2 yrs (or 56/3 yrs)

You mean 48 and 66, right? (22, 22, 22/4)

Chuck, you are right; I got those salaries from FG, instead of doing the right thing and checking Cots.

BBRef also has the salary information at the bottom of the player pages.

Reyes with a pretty solid day.

Good game for Reyes today so far: 3/4, 2B, BB, 3 SB

Valencia taking this "filling in for Donaldson" quite seriously.

Think Valencia was pumped up there??

If you want to see a handy spreadsheet-type display of the Jays payroll data, bbref has them on their 'payroll and salaries' page. Here http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2015-payroll-salaries.shtml

Think Valencia was pumped up there??

Nothing like showing your old team what you can do.

Good game for Reyes today so far: 3/4, 2B, BB, 3 SB

So an all-star after all?

Missed most of the game today. See that Pillar walked twice. What the hell? How does that happen?

There has to be a Mr. Dressup joke in there for us old farts about KC having a player name Finnegan.

man Buehrle is a stud. extend him now fo4 cheap longterm. he is ageless.

felix doubront gets the start in a pretty huge game tommorrow. please be good. a series win vs the AL leaders in their park would be a huge relief heading into the break after a nasty losing streak.

Reyes fWAR/650pa:

2013: 3.4
2014: 3.4
2015: 3.2

Reyes fWAR/650pa

If only that denominator weren't so elusive.

655pa last year.

barring more injuries he looks to be on pace to approach 600pa this year.

With all conjecture & rumour pointing to a sellers market I would not be opposed to AA selling assets right now if he can acquire fantastic returns. I don't foresee this team being a serious contender for a World Series appearance. My confidence in an AL Wildcard appearance or win is rather low as well. I'm all for selling & keeping the Jays prospects for another season. Decimating the farm for a potential playoff game would not excite me in the least. Trading Buehrle & EE for top end prospects (assuming this is the going price in the market) while gaining assets for Dickey in possible overpay does excite me for the future of this franchise. I want a sustained winning team for several years & this trading period seems ripe for acquiring high end prospects in exchange for veterans. The more controllable assets AA acquires allows for some potential challenge trades to fill the holes on the Jays for 2016 & beyond.

Give Beuhrle the Bonilla treatment. 20yrs/ $30m?

Trading Buehrle & EE for top end prospects (assuming this is the going price in the market) while gaining assets for Dickey in possible overpay does excite me for the future of this franchise.

Yeah, but how many season tickets do you buy?

probably a similar attendance number to another season without a playoff series.

Hechavarria is on pace for about 4 fWAR and is making $500k. Which makes it harder to get excited about paying $20m or more for 2-3 WAR per year from Reyes over the next couple of years (plus this one). Still, most of the middle-class-to-rich teams seem to have an asset or two like this at any given time.

If Buehrle finishes strong, Anthopoulos should just make the QO and count himself lucky that that particular contract worked out so well.

And I say that as someone who admires Buehrle.

hechavarria has earned 0.1war total since we traded him.

Buehrle didn't win that many games in the second half last year.

Regardless, I would make a QO, take the pick and run.

The point is that the Jays haven't won anything with Reyes, and now Miami has the younger, cheaper (about 1/40 the price), and better player (using WAR as a metric).

Reyes would have been worth it had the Jays made the playoffs (or even seriously contended) in 2013 and 2014. You could say the same thing (maybe) about Dickey. The Jays gave up long-term value for short-term value, but it didn't work out. Such is life.

Hechavarria is on pace for about 4 fWAR and is making $500k. Which makes it harder to get excited about paying $20m or more for 2-3 WAR per year from Reyes over the next couple of years (plus this one). Still, most of the middle-class-to-rich teams seem to have an asset or two like this at any given time.

Except, there's nothing in Hechavarria's profile to suggest he would ever have been worth that much on a consistent basis.
While the scouting reports of his defense were good, the numbers rarely have been, and the bat always looked pretty anemic. People improve, but what could reasonably be expected in Hechavarria was not this.
I would still make that trade every time in the same circumstances... though I'd be more hesitant about including a Johnson type with his health issues.

"The Jays gave up long-term value for short-term value, but it didn't work out."

Yes you can put together great teams on paper in the off-season, but until you play the games, you don't know what you have...circa 2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays. Hopefully AA has learned from his experience in "going for it" by trading prospects for expensive proven talent.

People complained about Gillick, with the moniker "Stand Pat". But the one thing was during the Blue Jays glory years, the home grown talent was given a chance to grow and only when the Blue Jays were on the cusp of being World Champions, did Gillick start to trade in an attempt to get over the proverbial hump. The vast majority of Championship Caliber teams are developed with home grown talent. Rarely is a Championship team just simply bought by FA acquisitions and/or trades.

Considering this team as it stands today is closer to a .500 team than the championship contender we all hoped. Mortgaging the future just to take a craps shot makes no sense. The adage that good pitching beats good hitting tends to ring true in the playoffs. I say hold the course and see how the SP prospects do in the 2nd half. Maybe it's enough to squeak in, but at the very least you'll have developed the prospects to enable them to contribute in future years.

Yes, most people were skeptical about Hechavarria's future value prior to the trade with Miami.

Interestingly, I remember Jeff Blair predicting (or reporting a scout's prediction) that Hechavarria would eventually hit enough to be valuable.

Aaron Sanchez threw 2 and 2/3 innings for the D-Jays tonight, walking 2 and striking out 2 while giving up a run. 

"The point is that the Jays haven't won anything with Reyes,"

if your standard for trades is winning championships,then very few trades are won.

SS fwar since the trade:

1. Tulowitzki 11.8
2. Peralta 11.0
3. Desmond 8.2
4. Simmons 8.1
5. Crawford 8.0
6. Aybar 7.1
7. Hardy 7.1
8. Reyes 6.9
9. A.Escobar 6.4
10. Lowrie 6.4
....
58. Hechavarria 0.1

and regardless, his offense this year came from a hot first 20gms (.373babip, 135wrc+), and back to normal in the 65gms since (.308babip, 79wrc+).....not to mention his great defense stats for 3 months this year don't negate his awful defense stats the last 3yrs.

Hech also happens to be having his 1st good 3 months right in time for contract negotiations this offseason at age 27, after rejecting a contract extension last offseason.

Well, my standard for having won anything would certainly be playing better than .500 ball, which is about what the Jays have played since the Reyes trade (less than .500, maybe?).

Hech is 26 - prime age for a position player. Some players put it together earlier, some do it later. It's not surprising his trajectory is up, while Reyes's is down, given their respective ages. Hech doesn't have to be a star to be better than Reyes over the next couple of years.

Hecchavaria, nothing - YUNEL FREAKING ESCOBAR has been worth almost as much as Reyes since that trade.

unless you're confusing blips for trajectories.

since his hot start, hech's hitting has fallen right back to where it was before...and his overall line this year is now barely ahead of last year's line.

so really, his "trajectory" is the first 3 months of good defensive stats in his career....which happen to be the stats that are least valuable over this sample size.

Uglyone, the difference in our approaches is that you're focusing on past performance, whereas I'm focusing on the present and the future (straight-up performance and value for the dollar). Apples and oranges. Reyes "won" 2013 and 2014, but the Jays were mediocre anyway, so what difference did having him on the roster make? This year Hech has been better and far cheaper. If the Jays currently had Hech instead of Reyes, they could trade for Hamels or Chapman, and the added salary would be no problem, this year and beyond.

Well, okay, maybe not ALMOST as much. But the upgrade from Escobar to Reyes wasn't worth anywhere near the MONETARY cost, let alone the value of the assets given up.

The difference i see in our approaches is that you're letting tiny samples be predictive, i'm not

Reyes has produced at a 3-3.5 win pace every year as a Jay.

A hot first month for Hech, or one good year from a journeyman like escobar, doesn't come close to comparing in value.

It's Hech's defense, not his offensive slash line, that is making him more valuable than Reyes this year. Reyes's 83 wRC+ (even taking into account his somewhat higher post-injury wRC+) doesn't seem so great when he's (literally) throwing away wins with his D.

Escobar isn't even an SS anymore, for the record.

Reyes is at 89wrc+ after today.

Hech has been one of the worst defensive SS in baseball the last 3yrs. half a season of great defensive numbers are not nearly enough to outweigh that.

Also, Reyes can't stay healthy, which means having players like Goins, Tolleson and Kawasaki playing SS in his stead. Which is why the qualifier "pace" always has to be a component of your arguments about Reyes.

reyes ranks 8th in SS war last 3yrs, including injuries.

pace wise, he ranks higher.

We've had this discussion before, uglyone.  fWAR uses UZR defensive numbers for Reyes which have been much better than his DRS numbers. bWAR uses DRS and finds Reyes at 5.5 WAR over the least 2 and 1/2 years, the 10th best of any shortstop, between Alexei Ramirez/Jordy Mercer and Zack Cozart.  He's a decent player, but it hurts to pay $22 million for what he gives you.

fwar/150gms last 3yrs (min 100gms):

1. Tulowitzki 6.0
2. Peralta 4.7
3. Reyes 3.5
4. Desmond 3.1
5. Simmons 3.1
6. Lowrie 3.1
7. Crawford 3.1
8. Hardy 3.0
9. Iglesias 2.9
10. Aybar 2.8


Reyes is at 3.3war/150 this year.

yes mike we have had this discussion before. your decision to use a lesser defensive stat is your decision.

anyways, reyes bwar and fwar has been near identical the first 2yrs as a jay, so your insistence on this point is a bit strange.

There's also the eye test, uglyone.  UZR has Reyes as an above-average defender at shortstop this year, and with slightly above-average range.  DRS has him as way below average.  DRS is almost surely closer to correct.  I think that he still can hit well enough to be a useful shortstop, nonetheless. It's the $22 million that hurts the organization.  Sunk cost, I guess.

Former Jays Brandon League and Dana Eveland have been released...

Weren't Dana Eveland and Jojo Reyes in the same rotation for us years ago ? Now there's an argument for not trading our stud pitchers !

A lot of posters seem to forget that the Jays were World Series favourites in Vegas heading in to 2013. It wasn't a case of AA foolishly going for it, it was a legitimate shot. It didn't work out because Johnson, Bonifacio, Cabrera, Morrow, Izturis, and Arencibia were all much worse than reasonable expectations. That's not a Ricciardi-esque team where one key injury scuttles everything, that's a ridiculous hit of bad luck. It's on top of the "normal" things like Bautista, Rasmus, Lawrie, and Reyes missing over 40 games each that season.

It happens. No need to pretend you saw it coming.

In what post in this thread does anyone pretend they saw it coming (whatever "it" is)?

"Considering this team as it stands today is closer to a .500 team than the championship contender we all hoped. Mortgaging the future just to take a craps shot makes no sense."

Is a craps shot like a roll of the dice?

The Jays offense is scoring .65 runs more than the 2nd best offense in baseball. It makes perfect sense to "mortgage the future" when your offense is functioning at historic club levels. The Jays already pissed away the prime of Roy Halladay, and they are dangerously close to doing the same with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. AA cannot stand pat on one more season of Bautista & Encarnacion. You can't let a well-intentioned RA Dickey trade scare you off from making future deals just because Noah Syndergaard has made a handful of nice starts at the MLB level. He simply must take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself right now in this very winnable division, and there will be a very disappointed clubhouse and fanbase if he does not.

Weren't Dana Eveland and Jojo Reyes in the same rotation for us years ago ?

Nah. Eveland was in the rotation that opened the 2010 season. (We haven't had a Jays team since that won as many games as that crew. Weird.) Reyes was acquired in mid-season, but didn't play here until 2011.

To win 87 games this year we have to go 42-30. That would be nice.

IMO 87 wins does not make us a good team. However if it gets us into the post season we could even win the WS.

However if we win 92 games then IMO we are a good team even if we do not win the WS.

I am OK with any trades that happen to get us to 92 wins. Even if we do not win the WS.

The Jays offense is scoring .65 runs more than the 2nd best offense in baseball. It makes perfect sense to "mortgage the future" when your offense is functioning at historic club levels. The Jays already pissed away the prime of Roy Halladay, and they are dangerously close to doing the same with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. AA cannot stand pat on one more season of Bautista & Encarnacion. You can't let a well-intentioned RA Dickey trade scare you off from making future deals just because Noah Syndergaard has made a handful of nice starts at the MLB level. He simply must take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself right now in this very winnable division, and there will be a very disappointed clubhouse and fanbase if he does not.

I agree with this observation on the surface. In this season, how much are weak pitching, which is the main reason for losing games per internet commentary and this site, in losing runs balanced by runs from offense ? Looking more in depth, what does "your offense is functioning at historic club levels" mean ? It means that the offense having a large difference ahead of the 2nd best offense in baseball in this season and large differences ahead of Jays in past season. A poster highlighted Jason Frasor's low ERA when Frasor was DFA'ed. Shall the Jays in this season look for reliever and closer whose saving runs are much more than striking out and other pitching performance categories ? Would ERA+, WHIP more useful now ? In my opinion, the underlying idea of 92-93 last post is to strike the iron when it is hot, regradless of mortgaging the future or not.

Last but not least, thank ISLAND BOY for adding more to my last post.

strike the iron when it is hot, regradless of mortgaging the future or not.

If one goes about striking hot irons, I suspect he'll not have much future to mortgage.

Relief Pitching from current 40 man rosters, AL Ranks:

TOR

2.3war (5th)
3.20era (5th)
3.31fip (4th)
3.33xfip (2nd)
2.93siera (2nd)


even the WPA has fixed itself:

APR: -0.69 (11th)
MAY: -3.03 (15th)
JUN: +0.60 (7th)
JUL: +0.42 (6th)

And anecdotally i'm not sure when i've ever liked the bottom of our bullpen as much as i like the current flamethrowing trio of delabar schultz and tepera.

in fact the only issue with the pen is the awful babip and hr/fb luck that loup and cecil have faced.

I don't think we need to worry about adding relievers. especally since adding starters will automatically give us more relief options. especially not jason frasors.

AA's job is extremely easy this deadline - get the best SP he can. 2 if possible.

This is off topic, but does anyone have any advice on watching baseball
in the Dominican Republic?  I'll be in Santo Domingo this week and would
like to see the DSL Blue Jays in action.  As far as I can tell from
online information, the DSL Blue Jays currently play their home games at
the Baseball City complex in Boca Chica, a suburb of Santo Domingo.  
But I may have that wrong.  Does anyone have any up-to-date
information?  And any other tips on watching baseball in the DR?  Any
reliable online sources?  I know the main DR league is a winter league
which begins only in September, but it will be interesting to see the
Jays prospects in the summer league.  Even better would be to see
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, but he doesn't seem to on the current roster of
the DSL Blue Jays, so perhaps he's in Dunedin at the instructional
league at the moment.

Speaking of trading prospects, Franklin Barretto is on quite the roll. After OPSing .448 in April, he's OPS'ed .908/.775/1.129 the past 3 months.

On a side note, one of his team mates is Phil Coke.

Per previous posts (forgive me for typos, as I was typing while multitasking), Jo-jo Reyes, Dana Eveland and Brandon League are still playing and the Jays need pitching who primarily saves runs. Reyes' ERA and FIP are better when relieving, not starting but his best minor league FIP in 2012 as a Pirates Triple-A is still worse than Eveland's Red Sox Triple-A FIP this season. Also, Reyes pitches for the Angels this season. So between the two pitcher, sign Eveland.

About League and relieve pitching,

#Dodgers have released Brandon League.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) July 10, 2015

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/7/10/8928905/braves-trade-rumors-jonny-gomes-jason-grilli-chris-johnson
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-prospects-draw-interest-as-trade-deadline-nears-070915?vid=479488067562

Feeding back to the 92-93's post, would AA and fellas trade for relief pitching? According to the two links above, yes.

There is a glitch that at least Jays fans know: only until a trade is actually done the media knows what was going on.

AA's job is extremely easy this deadline - get the best SP he can. 2 if possible.

Thank uglyone for his input on pitching stats. Where does AA's team find SP ? Pineiro, Wolf, Albers, Copeland, Doubrant, Francis, Jenkins, Boyd, Bibens-Dirkx are pitchers whose starting pitchings make up more than half of their pitching appearance each game in Buffalo. According to previous posts on this site, Doubrant is more or less the only satisfactory one out of this group regarding starting pitching in Toronto. Impressions on Wolf, Francis, Copeland are mixed. Johan Santana has ended his 2015 season on health issue. So 1 in 9+1 contract signing or 1 in 4 call-ups for starting pitching to Toronto is successful in bringing in SP, economically; does this mean AA must trade for SP with young prospects, just as the 92-93 post described ? Eveland started game for the Mets Triple-A last season but on the 1 in 9+1 success rate, is signing Eveland now to Buffalo meaningful...

A lot of posters seem to forget that the Jays were World Series favourites in Vegas heading in to 2013. It wasn't a case of AA foolishly going for it, it was a legitimate shot. It didn't work out because Johnson, Bonifacio, Cabrera, Morrow, Izturis, and Arencibia were all much worse than reasonable expectations. That's not a Ricciardi-esque team where one key injury scuttles everything, that's a ridiculous hit of bad luck. It's on top of the "normal" things like Bautista, Rasmus, Lawrie, and Reyes missing over 40 games each that season.

I don't think we need to worry about adding relievers. especally since adding starters will automatically give us more relief options. especially not jason frasors. AA's job is extremely easy this deadline - get the best SP he can. 2 if possible.

65% likelihood that at least 2 starters will be hurt at any given point in the season (105 games)
Younger pitchers can have as little as a 35% chance of hitting the DL in a given year (every year adds 1%)
There’s an 11% likelihood that two starters will be injured at the same time.
Even if a team only suffers four 60-day DL stints, that team will only have a complete opening day rotation for 36 games (22% of the season).

One year older = +1%
33 more game started = -3%
1 year of Injuries = +8%

So Is a hit of bad luck is an observation on probability of starters getting injured ? Is Todd Redmond already an example of a starter in the minor leagues becoming a MLB starter and then a MLB reliever ?

"You can't let a well-intentioned RA Dickey trade scare you off from making future deals just because Noah Syndergaard has made a handful of nice starts at the MLB level. He simply must take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself right now in this very winnable division"

This team's great offence can do a number on pitchers no doubt and as good as it is in making a comeback in the late innings, it's just as good as running up the score when the dead horse has already been beaten. Unfortunately a 10-1 win only counts as much as a 2-1 win. People talk about the Pythagorean W-L record should be and that it should balance out, well maybe it just doesn't this year for them.

It isn't about Syndergaard so much, as the fact you can't win the WS on paper. AA tried to trade for a winning team and it failed miserably. My belief is simple, in that if you have a contender, then go ahead and make that trade you believe puts you over the top. The Cone/Kent trade makes perfect sense in this context. While the O's may be already regretting the Miller/Rodriguez trade, it made sense as they were contenders at the time. However, the Blue Jays even with this vaunted offence are only a .500 team. You don't trade your way to be WS contenders from a middling .500 team. I don't care about winning a mediocre division and being one and done. I want a WS contending team that has more than one dice roll at that WS and you do that by NOT mortgaging the future.

I have no info but if you find out and are able to catch some action I'd love to hear your experiences. I'm trying to learn Spanish and would like to do the same someday.

The Jays offense is scoring .65 runs more than the 2nd best offense in baseball

For what it's worth, Fangraphs' Base Runs views the Jays' offense as having overachieved somewhat thus far. The Jays have scored 5.29 runs per game and allowed 4.37. Base Runs says that their expected RS should be 4.90 and RA 4.33. That's still a very good run differential (good for a 50-40 record, more or less) - just not wide as their actual run differential so far (Pyth record of 53-37). So the Jays may be due for some regression on offense.

Yup, base runs gives us a better picture of the team. Base runs sees us as a .559w% team so far, not a .591 team like run diff sees us.

so base runs sees us as underachieving by 5 wins right now.

which is in line with our 10-17 record in one run games. and which looks like is entirely due to a crazy streak in the last 2 weeks of May where we went 1-7 in one run games.

interestingly, we've had a .578w% since the start of june, which also coincides with going 7-5 in one run games. if they had been 6-6 in those games, that would be a .554w% over that stretch.

basically, this really does look like a 90 win (.555w%) true talent team in every respect, other than that crazy two week stretch of one run game futility.

adding a legit #1 would take us closer to being a true talent 95 win team....and luckily we won't have to actually get 95 wins to take the division.

I'm coming around to the idea that the Jays should just stick with who they have and let the cards fall where they may.  I think this is a good team already and they have a few young pitching options who are likely to help in the 2nd half.  I mean if they can get Cole Hamels ... I won't argue too much ... but I feel pretty good with who we have.

Gibbons took my advice from earlier in the thread and put Travis #2 today -- although I think Donaldson being out was _likely_ the bigger influence here.

this is what i expected from doubront last time out. ugh.

can't win trotting out starting pitching like this.

Doubront seems to be taking a page out of Boyd's book. Impress with your first start, implode with your second.

Given that the Royals have the best run prevention in the league, and Volquez (FIP 3.78) has yet to allow more than 5 ER all season, that might be the ballgame.

Doubront hasn't been good here at all, but an honest to goodness actual MLB left-fielder probably saves him a few runs. Bad gloves can stand out more than good bats.

6-0 in the 1st is usually ballgame

but we might be the only team in the league that thinks this is legitimately still winnable.

norris got crunched today for buffalo, too. so no help there.

Why on earth are you trying to steal third in a 6-0 game? With two outs? What are you thinking, Pillar???

Even if he's safe, that's just dumb. There's no benefit to it.

Don't forget Scott Copeland.

For those of you in a masochistic mood, here's ESPN Insider's scouting report on JP Crawford, SS, who was available at #10 when the Jays unexpectedly took Phil Bickford:

After missing time early in the season with injury, Carl Crawford's cousin made quick work of the Florida State League and earned a promotion to Double-A at the age of 20. He marks off every box on the leadoff hitter checklist: good contact, a great eye and the ability to move on the bases. He is also a top-level defender at a premium position. When the baseball revival happens in Philadelphia, he will be a central figure.

Carrera dove for a catch and finally HELD ONTO THE FREAKING BALL!

Clearly this is The Fates' way of telling us we're gonna win this one.

come on boys. do this.

Below .500 at the all-star break doesn't usually lead to greatness.

Have we reached the point at which one tries again with a new manager? We must be close.

oh baby!

blue jays' bullpen now in a head to head war with the best bullpen in baseball.

let's see what they got.

what. an. offense.

PLEASE GET US SOME STARTING PITCHING ALREADY AA.

Wow. Way to take advantage of the opposing team's errors, too.

ach why is cola still out there. fak.

christ, delabar. come on.

oh dear lord.

i apologize to everyone.

Speechless.

JB21, promise to give you a report on the experience. 

Is it just me or does it not feel like Loup comes into a game and hits the first batter every time? I know it isn't actually the case but it sure feels like it.

The 7th inning oughta be a doozy

my left eye is clawed out. right eye just about done.

Gotta love the little league defense...... that is if this was little league.

we might end the first half with a game that perfectly encapsulates the first half.

get martin home here. won't have a better chance than this. just get it in the air.

replay that.

i want to strangle this team.

Just turned on the game in time to see Martin get picked off. Grasshopper schooled the master on that one.

You know how the season is going when Pillar leads off with a triple and I fully expect the next 3 batters to strikeout.

reyes. this is your chance.

and we score a run off Davis.

this team.

only the 2nd earned run Davis has given up this year.

Also only the 2nd earned run we've scored today.

umps overreacting to their own missed calls are the worst.

robot umps please.

just to send us into the break on an extra sour note.

we might end the first half with a game that perfectly encapsulates the first half.

Pretty much, yep.

Only 2.5 more seasons of watching that calibre of defense at shortstop.

I think Rany Jazayerli summed up that game pretty well on Twitter:

Rany Jazayerli ‏@jazayerli
The Blue Jays might have set a major league record for most losses in one game.

The Jays might be well on the way to setting the record for most frustrating losses in a season.

I don't think one trade for a rental pitcher is going to fix this team. Add me to the list of people not wanting to trade the farm for a rental. If they can get a controlled asset akin to Donaldson than sure that's great. But I don't want Cueto. Not like adding 1-2 wins is going to really increase our chances that much in the second half. I don't think we should sell, but I'm certainly against buying for any of our top pitching prospects.

"Have we reached the point at which one tries again with a new manager? We must be close."

I think you have to try something. If we go down the route of changing the manager, I'd really like them to give Hentgen a shot, provided he's interested of course.

And what kind of manager is Hentgen?

Not to be overly pessimistic, but the Jays are now six back in the loss column (and they're behind three teams in the AL East). That's a not insignificant deficit. Plus, the Red Sox have almost caught up to the Jays. It's not a pretty picture.

And what kind of manager is Hentgen?

I don't know but maybe he's luckier than Gibbons.

Well, okay. As long as we acknowledge there's no reason involved.

The team is in the foolish position they are because AA tried to purchase a title. I can only hope he learned from that and doesn't repeat those mistakes in the vain hope of making a second half run. They lack any flexibility in contracts because of the burden of those guys right now. He needs to trust in his drafts and developing those guys into MLB players. If he can make a careful FA signing or acquire a cost controlled player than that is good as well.

I agree with kasi but I don't think AA is back next year. Just hoping we don't hire a cowboy like in San Diego....sells the farm and still has a losing team. I would not trade any prospects at this point.

"Well, okay. As long as we acknowledge there's no reason involved."

Yup, I'll acknowledge the change is for the sake of making a change. Gibbons has had his opportunity and it hasn't worked with him at the helm for whatever reason.

As for Hentgen, bullpens are notorious for up and down from year to year. However, the one year he was the coach, they did really well. Was it coincidence, was it luck? Sure likely was, but if Gibbons is shown the door, why the heck not try your luck. There are pundits out there that seem to think Hentgen could be a good coach/manager and nothing I've heard would cause to think "no way". Heck in recent years managers with no prior experience can do well it seems.

I think Anthopoulos is learning and that he's done a good job over all. Basically, this team should be playing around .550 ball and leading the division. The farm system looks to be strong. I would give him at least one more season as GM.

Yeah as long as they're judging on the process and not just blindly the results AA should be good. But if Beeston leaves and is replaced hard to think new guy wouldn't want to bring in someone new. I think the team will be good going forward as long as they don't do anything foolish. Just might not be AA who gets rewarded for it.

I just wanted to repeat this, from Bill James' website:

being a GM in baseball is VERY different from other sports. A basketball team has no minor league system, a half-dozen scouts, and two rounds of the draft... A baseball front office, you've got more than 150 minor league players and several dozen minor league managers, coaches, trainers, specialty instructors, etc. You've got amateur scouts, pro scouts, cross-checkers; I assume most teams have 50 to 100 scouts, something like that. It might be that in another sport, the job of being the GM is 60% making good personnel decisions, 35% negotiating contracts, and 5% organization-building. In baseball it might be something more like 35% making good personnel decisions, 5% negotiating contracts, and 60% organization building. It's not really the same job.

I was watching the game in Citi Field and the local announcer mentioned that a few years back Toronto went for it and loaded on free agents. That's basically what AA did, except he also got rid of a lot of prospects for seemingly nothing.  Those prospects didn't become all-stars, but they might have filled some holes.

The way the roster is structured, there is no money left for expensive pitchers--although a 2 month rental could be affordable. AA absolutely needs a rotation of young inexpensive arms. I would not be surprised if 1 or 2 position prospects are traded, but for what?

Well, okay. As long as we acknowledge there's no reason involved.

Can you explain what happened to the team record the last time Gibbons was let go? That's pretty much what AA needs right now.

I missed this one, except for the odd glance at Gameday (and even that was stressful).  What a mess.

I saw the lineups before the game, and wondered again what the organization was thinking about the outfield situation.  With Bautista out of the All-Star game, it surely could not have come as a surprise that he would not be in the outfield today.  Was it not possible to have another outfielder on hand for the game?  Wasn't it a sign from Zeus that Dalton Pompey's time had come? Nonetheless, Colabello drew three walks against RHPs and as he often has this season, more or less offset his defensive shortcomings in left-field with his bat.  I still think that it's a bad idea.  With Donaldson out, Doubront could fairly have taken a look behind him at the start of the game and shuddered.  That's not a good thing. 

The way the roster is structured, there is no money left for expensive pitchers--although a 2 month rental could be affordable. AA absolutely needs a rotation of young inexpensive arms. I would not be surprised if 1 or 2 position prospects are traded, but for what?

Are late-20s to aged 30 starting pitchers considered young arms ? If Ricky Romero has been good....

It seems to me that the Jays have a real logjam at DH:

EE
Colabello
Navarro
Bautista
Reyes

There are lots of ways the Jays can play this in the trade market (although Reyes might be all but unmovable at this point). The bottom line is that the Jays have a lot of money tied up in a handful of players who (to varying degrees) are no longer very good defenders and who might best be used as a DH. The Jays need to get better defensively in the outfield and at SS. They should be able to do this without sacrificing too much offense, or at least in a way that makes the tradeoff worth it.

One question that I'm sure Anthopoulos is contemplating is whether Colabello's bat is for real. EE is an excellent hitter, but is Colabello (146 wRC+) making him redundant?

Better defense will ease the burden on the pitchers.

Also, as I predicted prior to the season, Gibbons has been using Martin an awful lot this year (he's played in 78 of the team's 91 games, and has accumulated 307 PA so far). He's on pace to play 139 games, more than he's played (both in terms of games and PA) since 2009 - when he was 26 years old. I get that Gibbons and Anthopoulos are under pressure to win this year, but do they really want to break their star catcher in year one of his five-year contract?

I would too...but I have doubts that ownership will share that sentiment.

I missed today's game (thank goodness, by the sounds of it), but I'm trying to make sense of it from the Score app. Did the Royals really count three unearned runs as a result of Reyes' errors?

Can you explain what happened to the team record the last time Gibbons was let go? That's pretty much what AA needs right now.

If they replace Gibbons with another reasonably competent manager, they'll probably improve. Like last time. And if they don't replace Gibbons, they'll probably improve. It's a good team.

Was it not possible to have another outfielder on hand for the game?

I wondered the same thing. If it was humanly possible to get Pompey to KC by game time, then they should've done it. Maybe it wasn't. In any case, they need to figure something out for the second half. Call up Pompey, and if he doesn't work out, maybe you make a trade (Justin Upton?). But Colabello can't be a LF option anymore. I doubt the three walks he took today made up for the two doubles (well, definitely one, and probably two) he allowed. On the season, he's now put up a wRC+ of 142 over 221 PA, and is essentially a replacement level player -- 0.2 fWAR going into today.

This team reminds me of some some of the girlfriends I had in high school where deep down you know you should just break up with them and be over with it but somehow you hold on because who knows things for sure are going to turn around any day now.  But instead it's just more stupid drama.

Heck in recent years managers with no prior experience can do well it seems.

There've been good ones and bad ones. Mostly bad ones, probably, but that's not to say Hentgen couldn't be good. There's just no way to know till we see him do it. I'll give you credit, though, for at least naming names -- most of the calls to fire Anthopoulos and Gibbons don't even concern themselves with who might be next.

Don't know if anyone saw the ESPN story where managers were ranked top 5/6 in 7 different categories(, plus the top 10 overall.

Gibby was not mentioned once, except in a separate section on media relations (which wasn't ranked) where the NY Times baseball reporter spoke about his down-to-earth honesty.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13186480/who-mlb-best-manager-survey-says

I'll give you credit, though, for at least naming names -- most of the calls to fire Anthopoulos and Gibbons don't even concern themselves with who might be next.

Except naming names, especially those without prior experience, is pure guesswork. We really have very little clue.

One example is Ned Yost who was a joke, until he very much wasn't.

Would Torey Luvullo be a better choice than DeMarlo Hale, Sandy Alomar, Brad Mills or Tim Flannery? Where would Hentgen fit in this group? Anyone who thinks they know is mistaken.

"Except naming names, especially those without prior experience, is pure guesswork. We really have very little clue."

Yes quite true, but most recent ones that come to mind that have probably done better than expected are:
Molitor - Twins in the WC spot
Cash - Rays were ticketed to be last place team and given their injuries are surely above expectations.
Counsell - After the mid-season hiring, Brewers close to .500

It appears the prerequisite of having paid your dues as MILB manager may not apply these days. As I said we have a little bit of data on Hentgen. Yes it could've been pure luck or coincidence that the bullpen was excellent in his single year as coach. If Hentgen needs to bring his lucky rabbit's foot or other sacrificial item to bring the team some "luck, I'm all for it. As unfortunately the "luck" hasn't found it's way to Gibbons.

Anyway, this point is moot until Gibbons is actually removed and the probability is low that it happens under AA's watch this season.

This team is 45-46 including the benefit of an 11 game winning streak - doesn't strike me as a team I would part with a top tier prospect to help - best maybe to be in a holding pattern & if the team struggles coming out of the break, I'd be much more inclined to sell guys like Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada etc. and get a preview of next year's rotation by rolling with the kids.

I generally like what AA has done especially in acquiring young talent but if the new guy cleans house ( assuming no pennant race this year),I wouldn't complain too much - AA's epitaph will be, "Here lies AA's tenure, killed by the winter of 2012."

Most frustrating first half to a season in years.

Since... 2013?

lol no

2013 was just bad. This year has been frustrating in a "they should be a lot better than this" way

Are you not entertained?

Lights went out and a kick in the balls
I say that's entertainment, that's entertainment

Before Paul Weller went soft and lovable....

At the break the Jays now are 1 game sub 500 with a 53-38 pythagorean record.  8 games worse than they 'should' be.  3 regulars have a 140+ OPS+ 3 more are 110+ with Navarro listed as the DH with his 73 OPS+ and Smoak & Valencia's 120+'s as bench.  Someone explain why Navarro keeps getting DH time to me.

5 guys have 85 ERA+'s or less on the staff - Dickey, Hutchison, Loup, Cecil plus Tepera  4 guys the Jays were counting on plus a AAA depth guy.  Nearly a 2 run difference for Hutch between FIP and ERA.

Pretty obvious the issue is pitching and proper use of certain players (Navarro).  Yet if the Jays had 'good luck' as strong as their 'bad luck' they'd be at 61 win and seen as a juggernaught with the most wins in the majors by a good margin.
Baseball Prospectus has an adjusted standings and by that ones 3rd order method the Jays should have a 48-43 record and be in 2nd just barely behind the Yanks.

The 2 previous GMs got 8 years as the Jay's GM. This is AA's 6th year. To me it would be fair if AA also got 8 years. But life does not have to be fair.

The farm is finally looking good/producing for AA.

Ash inherited Guzman & Hentgen. Beeston got him Clemens. There were some other good players there too.

Richardi inherited Halladay and a few others. V Wells for one.

AA inherited Halladay. However Halladay insisted on being traded before the season started and to specific teams. AA had to make a choice on Halladay. AA also inherited 2 good hitters, Hill & Lind.

All 3 GMs had Cito and he did well for all of them to some extent. Unfortunately he chose to retire on AA's watch. Also a very promising 2010 rotation started to fall apart.

So none of the 3 GMs did well. AA probably has the worst 6 year record.

"I generally like what AA has done especially in acquiring young talent but if the new guy cleans house ( assuming no pennant race this year),I wouldn't complain too much - AA's epitaph will be, "Here lies AA's tenure, killed by the winter of 2012.""

The funny thing is that the previous off-season is when the Marlins signed both Reyes and Buerhle to those big FA contracts that most were penning as bloated contracts even though they won the 2012 off-season WS. Yet somehow the Marlins were able to off-load the back ended contracts when they found a taker in AA.

I think it was the Farrell signing that screwed up everything. When Farrell wanted out a couple years later and AA wanted a significant trade piece back, that Beeston likely got involved and said just get the trade done. Likely also saying here's the dollars to get things done and give the one finger salute to Farrell on his way out. It wound up expediting things that AA didn't have in his original master plan with the added financial restrictions.

I remember many saying how JPR's biggest sin was being unlucky.  much like the Jay are right now.

2008: Jays 86-76, pyt 93-69 - Rays won division with 97 wins (pyth-92), with neutral luck Jays make playoffs with Rays luck Jays are a 100 win team.

2008 was the year JPR was all in on.  Note how Gibbons was manager at the start of that year too and how the team jumped when Cito took over.  Wonder if history would repeat itself?  Doubt we'll ever know as many said Gibbons isn't going anywhere for good or ill.

no more minor league reports.....? none since Friday.

Gibbons had an interesting decision in the eighth inning yesterday.  Schultz had pitched the day before and had thrown well.  Hendriks hadn't thrown since 4 days prior, and had had his least successful outing in 5 weeks on that occasion.  Unsurprisingly, he went with the hot hand.

Hendriks did not allow a run in 11 outings in June.  On July 2, he went 3 innings early on in a blowout loss and allowed a run.  On July 8, he came on with a 2 run lead in the sixth inning, and gave up a ground ball single and two line drives sandwiched around a pop-up and a strikeout.  It wasn't a great outing but it wasn't bad either.  Now, he'll go at least 8 days without an appearance. 

If AA really doesn't have the money to add anything substantial, then he might as well sell. Buehrle, Bautista, Edwin, and Dickey all have value. And if you want to get radical about things, you could probably get a hell of a nice package for Josh Donaldson right now.

I wouldn't advocate trading everyone, but if the team as it stands now isn't good enough, and there's no budget room to make improvements, you've got to make some moves.

I think the Jays should go for because they have a golden opportunity right now. It's rare to have a mediocre team who's terrible at one thing and best in league at other aspects. Think of some of the JPR years, where there were competent regulars almost everyone (Chris Woodward and Dave Berg, 1b notwithstanding), but few stars. This year's team has a historic offence and terrible starting pitching. The fix is known. It may not be easy, but upgrading to average SP would be a huge, huge gain for this team.

I agree with those who aren't in the mood for a rental, but if that's the case, then offer the farm for Sale and Robertson. When that's turned down, move on to Hamels, etc.

Myself, I think AA has done a credible job.

First, he is hamstrung by a number of factors beyond his control.

Position players don't want to play on turf. Some here feel there is little or no merit in their belief, but at the end of the day, perception is reality. Some simply won't sign here, some will at a premium, over and above the different country/higher tax premium.

Pitchers would prefer a more friendly environment if they have a choice, with the country/tax also playing a role.

Therefore, budget $ don't stretch as far as most other teams with Free Agents.

The 5 year rule precludes signing most elite Free Agents.

Then there is Rogers, a corporation with budget parameters. They have shown a willingness to spend, though whether in proportion to the market may be a matter of debate. But there seems to have been troubling instances where some extra spending could well have been the difference maker for a mid-season playoff push or patching obvious early season holes and the money to do that was simply not there (reportedly).


Finally what we see is the tip of the iceberg in regards to AA. Has he tried to make bad moves that were overruled? Has he tried to make good moves that were overruled? These we may never know, though I'm guessing more latter than former.

Here is Blue Jay starting pitching 2015 sorted by xFIP.   Doubront, Copeland and Boyd lead the pack.   Here's another chart with team starting pitcher xFIP in the AL. Royals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Orioles and Twins trail the pack. 

I wouldn't sell the farm for Cole Hamels, and somehow I doubt that Sale is available.  I am interested in the next tier down but I have no idea what asking prices might be. 

Looking at what to do from here, I think the question is what is the true Blue Jays team? Is it the team with the mediocre record or the team with the dominant run differential?

Whether you believe it's the former or latter will influence your opinions on what has to be done.

I don't believe this is a bad team. Bad teams don't lead their league in run differential through 91 games or go 20-6 in blowout (decided by 5+ runs) games. This team has suffered from a severly suboptimal runs scored/allowed distribution, and a bullpen that, while actually solid in the overall, has been historically bad in the "clutch" (see http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/7/13/8945405/the-2015-bullpen-when-things-go-wrong-at-the-worst-time).

A thing that's held the Jays back is their 10-18 record in one run games. Baseball theory generally holds a team's record in those games is close to random. I'd agree except the Jays have been consistently bad at them for a decade and a half, and especially under Gibbons. Not sure what that means.

Is this in fact a really good team that's just been snakebit? Is there something about Gibbons that causes his teams to underachieve?

No reason to trade Donaldson considering he has three years of control left after this one. This team doesn't need to go through a total rebuild, it just needs to jettison it's bad contracts and let the starters in th minors develop into MLB players in the next year or two. Pillar, Travis, Donaldson, Martin is a very nice core. Pompey will be up soon again, and who knows what will happen with Saunders. Plus I doubt we can get rid of Reyes either, but at least he's above replacement for now.

I am concerned about Bautista and if it will be some big locker room blowup if they don't add again. But sorry guys you didn't deliver. You hit well when pitching was bad but even when pitching was good lately even the bats let us down.

It's tough to buy in a sellers' market. Anthopoulos will have to be disciplined and make a move that truly makes sense.

Remember the trade that sent Erik Bedard to the M's for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill and two other prospects? Sometimes teams will go to any lengths to get that big arm. It isn't always a good idea.

This year's team fascinates me. I've never seen anything like it, both good and bad.

The Jays have an awesome runs scored total, but I think we saw the limitations of the Jays' offense this past week. Good pitching shut them out. This leads me to wonder: does the Jays' offense consist mostly of hitters who wait for mistakes that they can crush? Consider:

• The Jays' BA, .264, is above average (league average is .253), but is only third in the league. And it would be lower if it weren't for Josh Donaldson and for Chris Colabello's lucky streak.
• The Jays are second in the AL in walks drawn.

Waiting for mistakes is a good strategy most of the time - most pitchers make some. But the very best pitchers don't, and that's who you're likely to see in the postseason, or when the game is on the line.

One absolutely fascinating stat: Jays' hitters have received only 3 intentional walks all year. (The White Sox are at 5, and everybody else is in double digits.) This is due to the Jays having a balanced attack: if you walk one guy, the next guy can bash one out just as easily.

As for AA's fate: it depends on Beeston's replacement, whoever that will be. The new guy might want a new GM in there, or he might decide not to fix something that isn't broken.

As for whether to go for it or not - I dunno. I'm glad I'm not a GM. I suppose it's worth mentioning that the last time AA went for it, he landed R.A. Dickey, who has helped the Jays but hasn't exactly been a star.

I don't know if this has been said but Sunday's game was one of the worst quality baseball games I have ever seen and I go back to remembering Jesse Barfield taking a lead off third base and getting hit with a line drive in fair territory.
Pillar getting thrown out at third down 6 runs is seriously unintelligent. Martin getting thrown out at third because he rounded the base too far is completely unacceptable, a hanging offence. And Reyes defense is shockingly poor and he knows it but can't stop the bleeding...he is starting to remind me of EE at third. And the Royals tried to make it a game. The play at second where the SS drops a tailor-made double play ball and flips from two feet to the 2B man who also drops the ball was worse than anything I saw in high school coaching. And Sal Perez caught a ball at the plate in which he seemed to want the runner to score.
To be fair, Pillar has turned himself into an asset and Martin is a terrific throwing catcher who looks a little tired from chasing Dickey's wobblies. I think Perez suckered him into that pick-off. Physical errors from time to time happen. Those kinds of mental errors should never, ever happen. Really gruesome stuff. I don't know if others have posted about these plays but that was terrible, terrible baseball.

Can you explain what happened to the team record the last time Gibbons was let go?

This is a completely different situation, despite superficial similarities. The 2008 team was underachieving and they didn't know why. They were going through their days like dead men walking, waiting for something to happen - a managerial change - that would change the situation they found themselves in.

This team knows exactly what's wrong with them. The pitching sucks. They're not waiting for a shakeup that will give them a fresh start. They're waiting for reinforcements. And that has to happen. It's not negotiable. Anthopoulos gets that done, or he starts polishing his resume.

I think he will get something done, by the way. I would imagine the memory of what happened last year when he didn't is still pretty fresh.

Well that was pretty cool.

But Joc was cooler.

The Jays have an awesome runs scored total, but I think we saw the limitations of the Jays' offense this past week. Good pitching shut them out.

I was just thinking about this. I know it's probably not true (not sure how I'd check), but it feels like this: if the "average" team OPS against best/average/worst pitchers (in equal groups, 1/3 each) is something like 500/600/700, then the Jays are 350/600/1000. That is, against the better pitching, they're among the worst of teams hitting wise, but they really know how to pile on against bad pitching.

Ogator, it seems to me that Reyes hasn't been terrible with the glove, just that his errors have come at terrible opportunities? 

And harder to fault Pillar's aggression on the basepaths when he continues to run into extra bases and tremendous defensive plays.  he can be overly aggressive, but it's paying off more times than not.

still frustrating to watch though!  my major issue was with Delabar into the game after we took the lead.  that just screamed demoralizing lead change to me, when delebar struggles, he's very hittable.  

This team knows exactly what's wrong with them. The pitching sucks. They're not waiting for a shakeup that will give them a fresh start. They're waiting for reinforcements. And that has to happen. It's not negotiable. Anthopoulos gets that done, or he starts polishing his resume.

I'm wondering whether Rogers is willing to spend the money to upgrade the Jays' pitching. I am assuming - possibly unfairly - that their goal is to maximize their return on investment, not maximize the number of wins.

But I agree with you: AA has to upgrade the team, or the guy that replaces Beeston will send him packing. He might do it anyway.

Why upgrade the team in a minor way (like picking up Cueto) if they can't keep him and he will only be a 1-1.5 win upgrade for this team and then you lose him for nothing, AA has maxed out the contracts for this team. Toronto has a higher payroll then a lot of teams with better attendance numbers. They got lots of help, they're just not good or lucky enough, that doesn't mean you double down and sell your future. We are in this situation now because we paid through the roof for a bunch of players who aren't doing much for us. Buying titles rarely works in baseball. 2012 set us back enough, we don't need to repeat history.