Any thoughts on the newest Blue Jay active roster member, Felix Doubront?  Just reviewing his Buffalo stats:  he looks good by FIP (2.77) but his other numbers aren't particularly impressive, including his K/9 and BB/9.  In fact, if you were to judge the Buffalo starters strictly by their numbers, the best Buffalo starting pitcher is.... (wait for it)... Jeff Francis.  But he's already been tried and found wanting in the majors this season, of course.  So, too, have Copeland and Boyd and Redmond.  So, after Doubront's audition, there will really be only one Buffalo starting pitcher who hasn't been tried in the majors this season: Randy Wolf.  (I'm considering Jenkins to be a reliever, for the purposes of this discussion.)

The revolving door in the 5th rotation slot is depressingly familiar from previous seasons.  It's partly due to injuries, of course, and I fully realize that Norris and Sanchez will be back in the majors at some point, which does provide more depth in Toronto.  But one wishes there was greater depth in Buffalo.  Perhaps Doubront will surprise us, but there's not much in his statistics to make us believe that he's a better option than Francis or Copeland or Boyd.  Does anyone have first-hand scouting data from Buffalo to persuade us otherwise?

personally not happy that we've had to resort to doubront.

though i'll admit his AAA numbers are pretty good and better than i expected. though he might have been getting a bit lucky with babip and HR rate. even then, i'll give him a chance. he may not be terribleml.

but AA really needs to make a trade imo.

Auditioning a new starter every week doesn't excite me neither.

Their auditions have only been as brief as their starts. Their trials might last longer if they stop inspiring articles entitled Worst Starts Ever.

Bit of a brain cramp there from the pitcher. Stood around the mound watching the play.

Speaking of Pompey (from the minor league thread)... it's time for his return.

FYI, the Nats and Giants are on TSN if you wanted a change of pace.

Yeah you'd think Carrera would be an improvement on defence over Collabello, only to be proved wrong yikes!

Is Carrera's glove the wrong size or something? I've never seen an outfielder have so many balls pop out of the leather before. Always seems to be at the worst possible time also.

Rough inning for everybody there.

Let's see what happens! Hutchison can't seem to pitch on the road this year, but he can't seem to lose either. He's still undefeated away from the RC, even if his road ERA just went from 8.92 to 9.36.

Yeah you'd think Carrera would be an improvement on defence over Collabello, only to be proved wrong yikes!

Well, let's not get crazy.

The Jays have a pretty tough month ahead: 24 games, 16 of which are road games (including a six-game west coast swing). It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jays right around .500 on August 3rd. Adding a frontline starting pitcher, and maybe also an outfielder (if not Pompey) and an ace reliever, might help avoid that fate. But it might be hard to get fair value in a deal.

Any way Hutchinson's road starts could be skipped? Just awful. The fact he was the opening day starter says a lot.

It is unnecessary for the club to try to make their run differential coincide with their won-loss record in this way.  Humour me.  Try something different.

Carrera continues to screw up this game...

In the other thread, Pillar was the popular pick for pleasant surprise of the year. And I agree.

Unfortunately I think Hutch is the unpleasant one. Thought this was his year to blossom after his strong Se ptember 2014. Sigh.

Why was Reyes taken out of the game?

That's more like it.  And I might add that I prefer the 6 run win to the 1 run loss...

Ahh, July. Right on time. That time of year when I can expand my interests to include things besides Blue Jays baseball.

It's a good thing the Jays aren't showing that level of resignation in this game...

I might have thrown a lefty against Gose here.

Whatever it takes to motivates the boys in blue...

Motivation through apathy is one of the more unique styles I've seen.

Great job by Goins in the 8th and 9th.

Gross.

Reverse psychology. Sadly, the original point stands. Deep flaws in roster construction reveal themselves eventually.

So, not reverse psychology, then? Or ambiguous psychology? Really, though, is there a team in the AL that isn't flawed? It's a bit fatalistic to be giving up on a team that's at worst ending the night 2 games back of the division still above .500 after two brutal starts and losses.

The nice thing about baseball is they play again tomorrow, and the chicken littles will be back.

Oh, I'll be back alright. I've followed this team for more than 30 years, and am not about to stop now. But I have learned by hard experience that Canadian summers are too short to devote entirely to charting the fortunes of a cynically constructed baseball team. They can have my April, my May and even my June but .500 teams have to share time with all the other delights of summer.

There are many delights of summer, to be sure, between beers, barbecues, beaches and patios, and they must also be relished. That doesn't change if the team's at .400, .600, or any point in between I do worry that the cynically constructed entity wasn't the team, though...

There are many delights of summer

And the best one this night was Trevor Bauer's at bat in the rain against Pittsburgh. While working a nine pitch walk, he managed to imitate the batting stances of three of his teammates. The best part was the perfectly straight face he somehow maintained the whole while. Awesome.

Another very good start by Syndergaard last night, this time against Kershaw and the Dodgers. He might well prove to be the best of all the young starters that the Jays system has produced in recent years.

So I'm thinking to myself, this must be the worst pitching this team has ever had. Do the stats back it up? It depends on what you measure.

Team ERA: 4.19 - 21st out of 39 Blue Jay team seasons
Pitching Rank sorted by ERA: 14 out of 15 AL teams. Rank has not been this bad since the 1977-78-79 teams.

Conclusion: Team pitching sucks. Not the absolute worst ever but relative to the league it may be. I'm afraid to find out how the starters alone compare historically.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/pitchteam.shtml

"....Deep flaws in roster construction reveal themselves eventually...."

I fully understand (and share) the disappointments of July when the Jays always seem to be losing games that are eminently winnable.  It's frustrating, yes.  But I don't blame it on flawed roster construction.  Anthopoulos has assembled a roster that should be achieving much more than it has in 2015.  Consider the starting rotation, which everyone now agrees is the biggest weakness on the team.  Anthopoulos put together a roster that included at least 7 pitchers who should have been capable of good performance in the rotation this season:  Buehrle, Hutchison, Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, Norris and Sanchez.  Of those 7 starters, two have been injured, and only Buehrle and Estrada have pitched adequately for most of the season.  Did anyone predict that?  I think most of us would have believed that the Jays would get decent performances from at least 4 or 5 of those 7 starters.   Nobody expected that Dickey and Hutchison would pitch as badly as they have, given their performance last year.  Sure, we shouldn't have counted on both Norris and Sanchez at such a young age, but to lose both of them -- plus Stroman -- was bad luck.

Consider just one pitcher:  Drew Hutchison.  Remember all the off-season analysis, explaining how his peripherals had improved dramatically during the course of the 2014 season?  Hutchison should have improved in 2015.  Instead he has significantly worsened.  That's not due to "roster construction" -- it's due to the random curse of baseball and the inherent unpredictability of the game and its players.  Looking at Hutchison's game logs for this season, I count 5 losses that were directly attributable to poor performances from Hutchison.  In 4 of those 5 losses, the Jays scored enough runs to win the game if the starting pitcher had been adequate.  If you remove those 4 losses from the loss column and add them to the win column, the Jays would be leading the division.  That's just from one pitcher.  I think it was reasonable for the Jays to have expected a better performance this season from Hutchison and Dickey and at least one of the other starters. I don't blame that on roster construction.

If anybody wants to see the video, it's outstanding.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/134612114/trevor-bauer-earns-kudos-for-batting-stances

It's pretty hard to complain about the roster construction of a team that is second (by two runs) in run differential in the majors.

On the other hand, it's reasonable to be frustrated when the "first place" team in run differential (St. Louis) is 51-28 (.646 winning percentage) and the "second place" Jays are 42-40 (.512 winning percentage).

I mean, for crying out loud, the Rays are also 42-40, and they have a -4 run differential. That's a 90-run spread between the Jays and the Rays over half a season, and the two teams are tied in the standings. Ridiculous.

"It's pretty hard to complain about the roster construction of a team that is second (by two runs) in run differential in the majors.

On the other hand, it's reasonable to be frustrated when the "first place" team in run differential (St. Louis) is 51-28 (.646 winning percentage) and the "second place" Jays are 42-40 (.512 winning percentage).

I mean, for crying out loud, the Rays are also 42-40, and they have a -4 run differential. That's a 90-run spread between the Jays and the Rays over half a season, and the two teams are tied in the standings. Ridiculous."

Bingo.

Spotting the opposing team 4-8 runs every game is an odd strategy.

There is merit to the roster construction criticism. AA declared the bullpen a priority for improvement at the conclusion of last season. For whatever reason (budget limitations, trades prices deemed too high etc) this was not addressed. Instead, the Jays broke camp with two hard throwing rookies in the bullpen (both extremely talented but a big ask for these two to anchor the bullpen). Starting pitching has been woeful for the most part this year, obviously Stroman was a massive loss. AA relied on two rookies in the starting rotation as well (Norris & Sanchez, both extremely talented but a big ask to expect instant success from both in an attempt to contend in 2015). Now add rookies at 2nd in Travis, Pompey in CF & an inexperienced unknown OF in Pillar. Large gamble to have so many rookies on a contending roster. It has worked out offensively & certainly the Jays are still in contention. However, Jays fans have incredible frustration knowing the Jays have required pitching improvements for several years (see attempted improvements in Johnson & Dickey acquisitions in 2013) yet since this time there has not been a major acquisition on the pitching staff. Agreed that the starters as a group have under-performed to expectations thus far, but the fact remains AA has not been able to be pro-active in the off season or reactive in-season to rectify the pitching woes. Roster construction criticism is warranted.

The Jays arguably had one of the best off-season of any team in baseball, bringing in Donaldson, Martin and Travis (along with lesser acquisitions like Estrada, Hendriks, Schulz and Colabello).

I find it tough to criticize Anthopoulos for having had an A off-season rather than an A+ off-season.

"There is merit to the roster construction criticism."
"I find it tough to criticize Anthopoulos for having had an A off-season rather than an A+ off-season."

Too early to rate the offseason an A, a C or an F. On the plus side, before the offseason, there were big gaps in the lineup and the field in both the short and medium term, and Donaldson, Martin, Travis, Saunders and others will hopefully continue to fill those gaps as the young pitchers mature over the next few years.

On the other hand, doing nothing to improve the pitching was really strange, and to date the team's record and consistency is no better than last year. So certainly you can argue in the short term that AA was dropping in granite counters while the roof was leaking.

Only time will tell if the moves were excellent, or misguided.

AA brought in Smoak and Saunders as well . However for the past few months, it's been evident we have too many competent 1B/DH types, especially since Navarro has gotten plenty of DH burn. AA had a chance to trade hitting for pitching, with EE the obvious candidate, since he could have fetched actual value. Instead, almost every game we have above replacement hitting warming the bench and watching sub-replacement pitching lose ballgames. Now that EE has his 5/10 that window of opportunity has closed.

Kendall Graveman out-pitched King Felix today and has now allowed six runs in his last 50 innings, and none in his last 21.

The Jays' Pythagorean record entering today's game was 49-33. If the Jays' actual W-L record was close to its Pyth record, I'm pretty confident we wouldn't be criticizing the team's flawed roster construction or viewing the roster as cynically constructed. We would be thrilled that the team was in first place and happily canvassing trade possibilities that could make the team even better.

The roster is a good one, even with the fluky injuries to Stroman and Saunders, the early-season injuries to Reyes/Bautista/Travis/Navarro and others, and the mediocre pitching.

There is no question that the roster could be better, but I don't think Anthopoulos could have made much better use of the limited financial resources he had.

Baseball diamonds are littered with teams that looked good on paper...including the last 2.5 years of Jays teams.

Ultimately AA, Gibbons and the Jays will be assessed on what happens in the field, not in a spreadsheet.

As it should be.

Well, what has happened on the field is the Jays are the best team in the AL at outscoring their opponents. That's all you can do - outscore the opposition. They gotta keep doing it and doing it and hope that what happens is to them is what happens 99% of the time: a team with a really good run differential ends up with a really good record.

Ultimately AA, Gibbons and the Jays will be assessed on what happens in the field, not in a spreadsheet.

Yeah, probably. But only because ownership has no clue how to properly assess a baseball team.

As it should be.

Yeah, no.

Kendall Graveman out-pitched King Felix today and has now allowed six runs in his last 50 innings, and none in his last 21.

It's been fascinating to watch his continued improvement. At the time of the trade, it seemed like we'd managed to avoid giving up one of our top prospects -- Sanchez, Norris, Hoffman, etc. Now I wonder if you'd take any of those guys over Graveman.

FanGraphs had an interesting interview with Graveman last week, by the way:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kendall-graveman-on-cutters-contact-and-spin-rates/

"but the fact remains AA has not been able to be pro-active in the off season or reactive in-season to rectify the pitching woes"

So you're saying that AA should've traded Sanchez, Norris and Pompey to land Samardzija?

As you said AA did already try the trading of a boatload of prospects for top of the rotation pitching for the 2013 sesaon and it totally backfired. Johnson was injured and Dickey has been underwhelming. Hindsight being 20/20 some probably wouldn't do the Marlins trade and vast majority, if not all, would reverse the Dickey trade. Yet you still want AA to the gut the farm system even more to try to find that elusive starter or two?

Heck wouldn't Syndergaard, Graveman and even Happ look good with this offence? Yes Graveman was needed in the Donaldson trade, but the point remains that with the various pitchers that the Blue Jays have traded away, some of those pitchers would look a lot better than the bunch we have now.

Blue Jays are a flawed team, if all they can manage is play .500 ball with this type of offence, trading for that one starter isn't going to do the job. Trading for 2 top starters is going to clean out the farm system and it's not worth mortgaging the future just for a potential shot at this window. Time and time again the good teams that compete year in and year out, got there by having their prospects arrive at the MLB level and perform. It's only when you are truly a competitive/elite team (mid 80s, early 90s Blue Jays) do you then consider making trades for an ACE to put you over the hump in the playoffs. You don't make trades for a middling team to try to get to the playoffs.

"It's been fascinating to watch his continued improvement."

Yes it's a pretty impressive run, one that has exceeded anyone's expectations I'm sure. Since he's been called back on May 23, he's made 9 starts and 8 have been quality starts. The only one that didn't qualify as a quality start was one where he only went 5.2IP but still only gave up 3ER. Wouldn't the Blue Jays practically kill for a pitcher that could give them a QS after QS, that goes consistently 7 innings or more (last 6 starts).

We always assume that players are going to develop in Toronto the same as others.

Exhibit A: Jesse Chavez.

Right, they really botched Graveman's development.

Yeah, the Pirates, Braves, and Royals really blew that one too. Oh, and the Texas Rangers, who drafted him.

PS Joseph Bats.

we knew there would be slumps coming after that torrid june, but we better nip this one in the bud.

but man is dickey toast.

Dickey has gone less than 5 innings once all season, and is very obviously not the problem right now in the rotation. It's so cheap to remain silent when he's pitching well and attack at the sign of first blood.

The problem with the Blue Jays rotation right now is that they only have 3 SPs you can rely on to not tax the bullpen - Buehrle, Dickey, and Estrada.

Dickey hasn't been pitching well all year. He might indeed be toast. ERA and FIP both over 5, a WHIP just a hair under 1.4. He's been bad. He still does give innings but they're not good innings anymore.

I have to mostly agree with 92-93 on this - relatively speaking, Dickey isn't the issue with the rotation. Well, more accurately, he's only the third-worst issue. The Sanchez Void is clearly issue number one, and Hutchison's inability to give any length to his outings is number 2. At least Dickey is giving the team those innings so that the loss taken that game isn't impacting the next one.

sorry, 92-93, your defense of dickey is what, exactly?

My defense is exactly the same as it was last game when you ripped Dickey an inning into his start, choosing to ignore what he had done in June.

In his last 7 starts Dickey has taken the ball into the 6th inning every time and has a 3.92era. If you want to hold against him that AA traded dArnaud & Syndergaard to acquire him that's your choice, but Dickey is giving the Jays exactly what you want from a starter in the back of your rotation. The problem with the Jays rotation right now is very clearly Drew Hutchison and the lack of a front end starter, not RA Dickey.

bwar + fwar

Buehrle 16gs, 1.8bwar, 1.1fwar, 1.45avg (2.9/32gs)
Estrada 11gs, 0.9bwar, 0.6fwar, 0.75avg (2.2/32gs)
Sanchez 11gs, 1.2bwar, -0.1fwar, 0.55avg (1.6/32gs)
Hutchison 17gs, -0.4bwar, 1.5fwar, 0.55avg (1.0/32gs)
Norris 5gs, 0.2bwar, 0.1fw, 0.15avg (1.0/32gs)
Dickey 17gs, -0.1bwar, -0.2fwar, -0.15avg (-0.3/32gs)

and if you don't like the new fangled stats, we can note that he's the only one of those guys with a sub .500 record.....and he's way below at 3-9.

what am i missing here? he's killing us.

i have nothing against the Dickey trade. i've defended it many times and will again, even though i loved syndergaard.

but the trade doesn't matter anymore.

dickey has been killing us this year. period.

You're missing that he takes the ball into the 6th or 7th every start, that they currently have no 5th starter, and that Drew Hutchison has sucked all season.

CC Sabathia, Jeremy Guthrie, Carlos Frias, Stephen Strasburg, the Astros 5th starter...each division leader except STL has had a really mediocre 5th SP (if not 4th) this season.

And I couldn't care any less what a pitcher's WAR is. Just look at the discrepancy in Sanchez and Hutchison and between the individual systems, and it will tell you what WAR is good for.

the argument is that gibby has a slower hook with him?

really?

If we upgraded a starter, I'd be more interested in seeing how Hutch's stuff plays in he bullpen over Dickey's. Otherwise it's a pretty marginal argument.

not even sure what hutch has to do with my statement about Dickey. i never mentioned hutch.

Looks very much like 3 of the present starters----Buerhle, Estrada, Dickey-----will not return next season. For this reason, I don't think AA will trade any of the better pitching prospects.

I am not sure any trade of significance will be made at all but if one is, I wonder if Pompey might be the main chip. I say this because he is being left at NH despite the gaudy numbers and maybe that is to make him look good. The unexpected play of Pillar at the major league level and the emergence of Alford as a top prospect may make this feasible.

Having said that, I do not favour trading any top 10 prospect for a rental but maybe for someone who has a couple years of control.

I think EE should be our main trading chip, that is if there is any market for him at this time. It may be more of an off season move.

"We always assume that players are going to develop in Toronto the same as others.

Exhibit A: Jesse Chavez."

Should we assume different then? Should we assume that Trout or Harper would've been DFA already if the Blue Jays had a chance to develop then?

The counter argument is simply that the 2 pitchers (Syndergaard, Graveman) referenced, followed a consistent progression path both in Toronto and then the other organizations after being traded. There wasn't a hiccup in Toronto such as your Chavez example, who then found success elsewhere.

I disagree with trading EE (plus he has 10/5 now, so it will be tough). Obviously the offence has been great and we do have an abundance of DH/1B guys but all of those guys could easily fall flat on their face. I don't think we can take any of them for granted. A similar situation would be the A's trading Cespedes.

I don't understand how it is suggested that Jesse Chavez 'developed' in Toronto in any event. He came to the organization as a 28 year old after having played pro ball since he was 19, mostly in the Pittsburgh and Texas minor league systems. He played less than a year with Toronto, in LV and at the major league level at 28. The fact that he has pitched better in Oakland, which happens to be a much better park and division for pitchers, doesn't make his short stint with the Blue Jays org 'mis-development'.

No, but the Jays arguably could have done a better job of recognizing that Chavez was on the verge of becoming a very solid starting pitcher. The Jays under AA have gone through periods where they've promoted and very briefly auditioned pitchers, only to jettison them when they don't get immediate results. Chavez had one of those brief auditions with Toronto.

I think you guys are reallllllly reaching with Chavez.

No, but the Jays arguably could have done a better job of recognizing that Chavez was on the verge of becoming a very solid starting pitcher.

Sure you could argue, but not with any validity. He was terrible here and even worse after we sold him to the A's. He was playing around with different pitches and grips and arm angles. He never started a game with Oakland until 2014, had only relief appearances there in '12 and '13. And even the past 2 seasons 30% of his appearances were out of the pen.

It would be much easier to argue it was obvious he was NOT on the verge of becoming a solid starter.

Chavez added a cutter after landing in Oakland and it has become his number one pitch.

Just a few years back it seemed like pitchers where they only prospects the Jays knew how to develop.

Chavez added a cutter after landing in Oakland

Incorrect. This interview with Chavez makes it clear that he has been throwing the cutter for a long time, and finally was able to command it well when he was playing for KC - that is, *before* he briefly landed in Toronto.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jesse-chavez-is-done-being-mad/

In my humble opinion, using Jesse Chavez to demonstrate mis-development on Jays' part is not that valid, per CBD's viewpoints. To argue if the Jays had mismanaged or mis-recognized his transactions, Hyperpole's viewpoint showed the argument's in-validaity. On the grounds to prove mis-something on the Jays', Chavez is less useful than Yan Gomes who was traded with Mike Aviles for Esmil Rogers. Rogers is just a Yankees' relief pitcher and so less than the Gomes' contribution to the Indians lineup. If Gomes had stayed as a Jays, Russell Martin would not have been signed.

A more constructive idea, in my humble opinion, is to find SP's on economical contracts or RP's who are convertable to SP's, just like what Hyperpole has shown.
 

He was terrible here

Chavez struggled during his brief cup of coffee (21.1 IP) with the Jays in 2012, but he was very solid in AAA (in the PCL, no less) that year:

8-5, 3.77 ERA, 105 IP, 98 H, 10 HR, 22 BB, 95 K, 1.14 WHIP

So, he was emphatically *not* terrible when he was a member of the Jays organization. In fact, his performance had taken a significant leap forward that year. It's understandable why Beane was interested in him.

the As don't even think chavez is a good starting pitcher, which is why they've used him as a swingman.

sorry greenfrog but those AAA numbers you posted for chavez are far from good.

AAA numbers you posted for chavez are far from good.

They're actually quite good for Las Vegas. But when a 28 year old, with a long history of failure at the major league level, does that sort of thing I just assume the guy has figured out how to deal with minor league hitters.

the As are smart to use their ballpark to their advantage to make fungible pitchers look better, and the jays have learned to use their ballpark to make fungible hitters look better.

the As park is murder on mediocre hitters, just like tge dome is to mediocre pitchers.

Pitching aside, it's Canadian Rakin' that's taking us to the playoffs this year.

Ohhhh. I thought "Canadian Rakin'" had disappeared, died the slow anonymous death it deserved. Please. Let it rest in peace.

#CanadianRakin'

i mean, how can you not like it?

Not only were Chavez's 2012 stats good for the PCL/Vegas, they were also a significant improvement on his career minor league stats (which, of course, include his 2012 year):

Career: 4.15 ERA, 9.6 H/9 IP, 2.9 BB/9 IP, 7.9 K/9 IP, 1.384 WHIP

2012: 3.77 ERA, 8.4 H/9 IP, 1.9 BB/9 IP, 8.1 K/9 IP, 1.14 WHIP

So, in addition to throwing hard (92.8 FB / 90.4 cutter), his stats were good and trending in the right direction in a hitter's park/league.

Also, while Chavez has been excellent at home this year, he has also been solid on the road - probably better than any Jays' SP has been.

So, not buying uglyone's minimizing of Chavez's performance level from 2012 on.

i mean, how can you not like it?

I don't know. But I find it really, really, easy.

Not to pork holes in this discussion, but I can understand the lack of a lard on for Canadian Rakin'. It is a little too porcine too not feel like a kick to the loin. Gammon, we can do better, let's find something not so ham fisted.

gonna have to beat it to kill it, bluto. #CanadianRakin'

Aside from the reason for its use, to describe a plethora of Jays runs, this might be the only thing I actually like about Canadian Rakin'. Brilliant, Christalyor.

...And now, I'm hungry.

C'mon, christaylor , you're hogging the limelight.

I wonder if it isn't time for Travis to return to the top of the line-up? That is:

Reyes
Travis
Bautista
Donaldson
Encarnacion

I'd like to see Donaldson's bat behind Bautista's .394 OBP rather than the other way around.

I really like the Pillar-Travis combination at the bottom of the lineup, lengthening the lineup and setting the table for Reyes and Donaldson.  Is there a better 8-9 combination in any lineup in the league?  It's been great to have Travis back in place of Goins.  He didn't do so well when he was bumped up to the top of the lineup earlier this year.  I'd keep him at the bottom for now anyway.  He really turns this lineup into even more of a powerhouse than it already is.

The problem with #CanadianRakin (in my humble view) is that only one of the nine hitters is actually Canadian.  (At least until the return of Pompey and Saunders.)  Perhaps I'm being overly literal, but it should correctly be #CanadianBasedRakin (which doesn't have quite the same ring to it).

I actually like Wilner's version, The Gauntlet. But I admit it hasn't caught on. 

Castro has been promoted back to Buffalo.  Sounds like he might be ready to rejoin the Jays soon, which might obviate the need to trade for a Papelbon or Clippard. And it might also allow Sanchez to stay in the rotation, where he is badly needed.

Someone recently posted the opinion that Castro should remain at this "age-appropriate level" -- i.e. Dunedin.  But he seemed to totally dominate that level.  (Seven strikeouts and one walk in 5 innings, with no hits allowed.)   Is there anyone who opposes his return to Buffalo and his potential return to Toronto if he continues to pitch well?  If his age is the issue -- it doesn't seem to be a problem for Osuna.

I'd like to see Donaldson's bat behind Bautista's .394 OBP rather than the other way around.
I really like the Pillar-Travis combination at the bottom of the lineup, lengthening the lineup and setting the table for Reyes and Donaldson.  Is there a better 8-9 combination in any lineup in the league?  It's been great to have Travis back in place of Goins.  He didn't do so well when he was bumped up to the top of the lineup earlier this year.

That is this ?

Reyes
Bautista
Donaldson
Encarnacion
5
6
7
Pillar
Travis

Other Jays batters can be suited for slot 5,6,7, not to mention Matt Hague the soon-to-be Triple-A Allstar game starting third baseman.

By the way, is the Jays the first MLB team, not to mention the only professional baseball franchise, whose starting third basemen start for Allstar games of the highest and second highest level of baseball in a geographic region ? Donaldson and Hague...
NPB in Japan has farm teams - nigun - for the NPB teams.

Canadian Rakin' is awesome, at least / until someone comes up with something better.

So unless you've got something better, uhh ...

Or should we, the fans, just wait till the corporation brands it for us? 

#CanadianRakin
#CanadianBasedRakin

Buffalo Bisons' Matt Hague and Gregory Infante are IL Allstars this season. Jamie Romak from London, Ontario is going to be the starting third baseman from the Reno Aces for the PCL Allstars.

Maybe would the Jays like to swap Hague for Romak who also plays corner OF in addition to corner IF which both players play ? Romak slugs for more HRs than Hague who walks more than striking out and hits for better average.

Poor old Matt Hague.  Within 10 minutes, he's demoted from an anticipated Blue Jays lineup position to mere minor-league trade fodder. 

Possibility versus Probability

Would Hague be promoted from Buffalo to Toronto or traded for another player similar to performances ? Possible ? Would within 10 minutes Hague be demoted from the anticipation to trade asset ? Probable per China fan as ideas are typed onto this website.

Incorrect. This interview with Chavez makes it clear that he has been throwing the cutter for a long time, and finally was able to command it well when he was playing for KC - that is, *before* he briefly landed in Toronto.

Often times information out of the horse mouth is not the most reliable.

Fangraph has him throwing 0 cutters in 2009, 2010 and 2011, but up to 34% sliders.
It looks like he mastered it in Vegas where he did pitch well, all considered.

I would guess it's Fangraphs that's unreliable. Probably classified Chavez cutters as sliders.

Chavez "developed" because he moved to a park that could his fly balls. Nothing more- you put Marco Estrada in that ballpark and he likely has a sub 3 ERA.

Re: Dickey- he's probably done. He's also desperately needed in the rotation right now. Hutchison and his 22 pitches/inning (estimate) are the first, second, and third problem on this team. If we can't even add a mediocre starter then I'd be in favour of doubront, Jenkins, Norris, or hell even Francis taking hutchinson's rotation spot right now. Personally I'd give him the halladay treatment.

Chavez is a nice story, as is Graveman. However Oakland is an extreme pitchers park in a division that has several other pitching parks (and not as good offenses as the AL East). There is no way that they reproduce those numbers here and in Camden, Yankee Stadium and at the Monster.

"Someone recently posted the opinion that Castro should remain at this "age-appropriate level" -- i.e. Dunedin. But he seemed to totally dominate that level. (Seven strikeouts and one walk in 5 innings, with no hits allowed."

prob me.

i'd rather have him starting in A+ because i don't particularly think he can be an upgrade to our bullpen this year.

but if he blows up again, i hope he goes all the way back down in a starting role.

but i'll be happy to be wrong if he pitches well up here in relief, as seems to be the plan.

Hutchison and his 22 pitches/inning (estimate)

Pitches per inning:

Norris: 18.8
Hutchison: 17.0
Estrada: 17.0
Dickey: 16.3
Sanchez: 15.8
Buehrle: 14.0

There is no way that they reproduce those numbers here and in Camden, Yankee Stadium and at the Monster.

Chavez's total career stats pitching in those parks:

78 PA
20 H
3 doubles
0 triples
3 HR
6 BB
19 K
opp. slash line: .278/.333/.444

Which is not too bad at all.

Incidentally, in 2015 Chavez has pitched just about as well on the road (3.19 FIP) as he has at home (3.00 FIP). While last year he was quite a bit better at home than on the road (3.41 versus 4.30 FIP), the year before, pitching as a reliever in his first season for the A's, he was actually significantly better on the road (2.58 FIP versus 3.48 FIP).

The "Chavez is only doing well because he pitches for Oakland" theory isn't really borne out by the stats. He has gone from intriguing (2012) to promising (2013) to respectable (2014) to excellent (2015). At $2.2m, he is a valuable asset for the A's this year. He might even be a good trade target for the Jays if the A's fall out of it (with the caveat that it's unclear how durable he will be in the second half).

Those amazin' Matz. He is now 2-for-2 in career games where he has knocked in more runs than he allowed. I wonder where that places him on the lifetime leader board.

Sorry, I counted only Baltimore, Yankee Stadium and Fenway in those 78 PA. I just noticed that you also mentioned the RC - he has in fact been shelled in the RC (1.199 opponents' OPS). However, almost all of that drubbing occurred prior to 2013, his breakthrough year. Since then he's had one outing in the RC (in 2014), in which he had an adequate start (5.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR).

Those numbers aren't that great green and certainly not good enough as a long term solution.. My point wasn't so much that Oakland is a big pitchers park, although it is more so than any of the AL East ones excepting perhaps Tampa. It is also that other than the Rangers every other home stadium in the AL West also suppresses runs. You can't just equate road when the road environments Toronto plays is much different than what Oakland plays.

The problem with #CanadianRakin (in my humble view) is that only one of the nine hitters is actually Canadian.

And the term itself is a little lacking in its Canadianess. Do you catch my drift? Henceforth I'm sure you'll all agree that the name we should be using, the one that'll strike fear into every opponent (or at least confound them) is #Peameal Rakin'.

The solution, it seems, was staring us in the face the whole time.

In light of Donaldson's record-setting All-Star vote tally, how about #JustJoshin'?

Nope. Peameal Rakin' is awful too. Maybe it's difficult to choose which is worse, Peameal or Canadian Rakin, but it's kind of like choosing between Hitler and Stalin.

Yes, that's right, I compared those two tags to the WORST HUMAN BEINGS OF ALL TIME.

Well Kasi, in 2015 Chavez has an ERA+ (ERA adjusted to the player's ballpark) of 120. That's pretty darn good and would fit pretty well in the Jays' rotation. Here are the Jays starting pitchers' ERA+'s this year:

Sanchez 109
Estrada 108
Buehrle 106
Dickey 77
Hutch 74

By this and various other saber measures, Chavez has been a clearly better SP than any of the Jays' SPs this year.

I still think it's a stretch to say the Jays missed on Chavez. Any team could've inserted Chavez in their starting rotation if they really wanted.

Oh for sure Chavez would be better than Dickey/Hutch right now, but that still doesn't leave him as a good option. ERA+ while a fine stat only includes two things. Home ballpark and league ERA. It does not account for road ballparks played in nor the quality of the offenses played, which is stronger in the AL East. Not to mention the unique advantage oak lands stadium gives to fly ball pitchers. So no I don't agree that Chavez on our team would be 120. Most likely 90-100.

I think he'd be better than expected now. I've always felt that favourable environments allowed people to develop their strengths without getting punished for their mistakes. Pitchers for most west coast teams, hitters in places like Colorado. Heck, we could be witnessing the same thing with Smoak, now that he's free of an environment that negatively impacts his strengths (hitting the ball hard and in the air). Now, instead of trying to change to find success, he can double-down and try to hit the everliving bejesus out of the ball.

"Re: Dickey- he's probably done. He's also desperately needed in the rotation right now. Hutchison and his 22 pitches/inning (estimate) are the first, second, and third problem on this team."

by my rough math gibber allows dickey 10 more pitches per start than he gives hutch, and dickey gets a little over 2 more outs per start with them.

dickey has slightly better ERA, but hutch actually has very good peripherals to hope on, not to mention youth. dickey just has the vagaries of the knuckler, because there isn't one redeeming nugget buried anywhere in his stats or birth records.

even if you think Hutch is the first problem with the staff, and he may be, Dickey runs an extremely close 2nd. and if hutch's numbers start regressing to those peripherals - which really they should - dickey will pass him for first right quick.

and that's not even counting all the roster and backup catcher shenanigans and contortions the knuckler puts the rest of the roster through.

in honor of Super Bluto, we shall henceforth go with #CanadianSpinach


and no matter how many posts you guys make, I won't ever miss Jesse Chavez.

I understand where you're coming from, ugly, but I have some dissenting thoughts as well.

First, your napkin math is correct, though I'll quibble, and say that he's closer to an innining more than 2 outs, and he's achieving those 2.59 outs with 10 pitches. Hutchison averages 5.47 IP, vs Dickey's 6.33, with the league average for starters at 5.9. Heck, Dickey is closer to trade target and fifth position on the IP leaderboard, Jeff Samardzija (at 6.84 IP/GS) than Hutchison is to Dickey. After April as well as this latest spate of games, I've been reminded of the virtues of the IP. Obviously, it should never be decoupled from its context, but it shouldn't be dismissed or diminished for the rate stats, either.

Second, Dickey has a bit better ERA, yes, Hutchison's FIP is way better than his ERA, and in fact, it's noticably better than average. It does help ease the mind for future projections, but that's offset to a degree by his performance in that department last year, when he also had a high ERA and a good FIP. Hopefully, we've just seen the explodey time, and he's ready to sort it out, but that still feels up in the air. Dickey's peripherals are worse than his ERA, sure. His strikeouts are way down. Weirdly enough, his Swinging Strike rate is about average, about in tune with his 2013, about the same as Hutchison's, and trending better since those freakish 0 K games. So, to me, it seems like a distinct possibility that Dickey's peripherals will regress more towards his career line, especially if he can start boosting his first strike rate.

Overall, I would say that Hutchison has been the most problematic, followed by the two cluster-bombs of Bad Norris and Sanchez Void (they were worse per-start, of course, but only totalled 10 starts), followed by Dickey.

Also, I'm with you on Chavez. I don't miss him either, and I don't think he becomes what he is now without going to Oakland (or somewhere Oakland-esque). I do think he could probably hold his own just about anywhere now, though.

I think I've put my finger on why Canadian Rakin' doesn't feel right to me... putting 'Canadian' in it feels so... Un-Canadian.

As much of a hockey fan I am absolutely not, I'd probably prefer something like The Enforcers. It gives a nod to Canadianna without hitting you over the head with it. Or maybe it does, since they're enforcers. Again, not a hockey fan, so I'm not sure how that works.

#Thunderbats #HO!

HAH! Don't know if that one'll stick, but it made me laugh.

I like to call them the Jays. I think it's simple and catchy. Doesn't even need a hashtag.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, greenfrog's cousin is tearing his hair out over Chris Colabello...

Well, perhaps the hashtag I really should have included, for Super Bluto's benefit, is #sarcasm. You can never be too careful it seems, lest the Hitler and Stalin comparisons come out. Though I agree such comparisons are entirely appropriate for that other one, #CanadianRakin' ;)

In any case, I really don't see the point in trying to force a nickname on the team. If it happens, which it probably won't, it'll happen organically. Kind of like how the #NapTogether thing emerged.

For a little nostalgia (extremely little), does anyone else recall Bob McCown trying to get everyone to bring a fork to the home games of the 1991 ALCS? "Stick a fork in 'em" was the idea, though it was really just an attempt to copy Twins fans with their white hankies. That idea, as I recall, went nowhere.

I like to call them the Jays.

It does have a certain je ne sais quoi.

Oh... Speaking of names emerging organically, I just remembered that it's already happened. The Breakfast Army. A good name with a good backstory. The T-shirts exist and everything.

dickey just has the vagaries of the knuckler, because there isn't one redeeming nugget buried anywhere in his stats or birth records

Not so - Dickey is ahead of Hutchison in just about every defensive metric you can find. He fields his position better, and he holds runners better.

That's helped him outperform what his peripherals would dictate for the past six years.

Oh... Speaking of names emerging organically, I just remembered that it's already happened. The Breakfast Army. A good name with a good backstory. The T-shirts exist and everything.

Oh man, this one is by far the worst.  Google translate error = team nickname?   i love Stoeten, but he's way to much of an ironic hipster to name anything that I have genuine love for.

for some reason, I assume Dewey is going to have problems with my ending that last sentence with a preposition...

So "organically" means "let somebody else do it" ?

i'm pretty sure stoets gave up on breakfast army in the preseason, anyways.

probably due to poor tshirt sales.

Thunderbats tees would fly off the shelves, with a good enough photoshop.

Navarro as Snarf would be a bestseller.

for some reason, I assume Dewey is going to have problems with my ending that last sentence with a preposition...

Ain't nothin' wrong with that. Wish Wilner would give it a try.

The A's have the worst record in the AL, yet are only 6.5 games out of a wild card.

The Padres have 5 teams behind them in the in the NL, yet are 7 games out of a wild card.

So you're saying that the help is going to have to come from the National League. I vote Latos.

RP Fastball Velocity

1. Schultz 95.5
2. Tepera 95.4
3. Osuna 95.2
4. Hendriks 94.3
5. Delabar 93.4
6. Loup 93.3
7. Cecil 92.0

X. Castro 96.5
X. Rasmussen 93.1

now that's a real torch relay back there.

probably the hardest throwing pen in baseball.

for some reason, I assume Dewey is going to have problems with my ending that last sentence with a preposition...

Nah, your notion of me as some sort of grammar nazi, jerjapan, is miles off-base.  Nothing wrong with preps wherever they want to be.  (It’s sloppy, careless diction that sends me up the wall.  For one.)

But I simply don’t get the perceived need for some sort of manufactured “nickname”.  (Nor for coming-to-the plate ‘music’, for that matter.)  As my old sometime-antagonist, Jonny G.,  says, what’s wrong with “Jays”?  And I wouldn’t trust Stoeten’s judgement on a name for anything.  He tries way too hard to be cool.  And fails.  So get off my lawn.  Let it be.

get off your lawn, indeed.

p.s. all nicknames are "manufactured".

p.p.s. all nicknames are derided by cranks, too :)

the point being that this jays offense is so amazing that it deserves unique recognition in jays history, of course.

#MadJax #BeyondThunderdome

"manufactured"?

or

"manufactured?"

...I've always wondered.

Please, no Latos. He's a perfectly acceptable starting pitcher, but his constant nibbling is some kind of unbearable. He makes Drew Hutchison look like Doc Halladay.

"As my old sometime-antagonist, Jonny G"

Moi? I'm sure I've derided the anachronous double-space-after-a-period. But otherwise I don't recall antagonising you. I'm a supporter of the cause! I too wish uglyone would stop typing with his nose!

i'm warming up to the Shark idea as his ERA continues to tumble down towards his peripherals. i value AL success more than NL...and shark is starting to look pretty good in this league.

there's enough question marks with cueto and hamels to worry about if they can be legit #1s in the AL.

I think both Hamels and Cueto would be superior options to Samardzija, but might not be worth the presumed added cost, possibly taking away 2015 depth (since Norris or Pompey could be in play).

Also, Latos just added another start with improved velocity, throwing well. He's not in the class of the other three or Kazmir, but as a pre-emptive move to plug the Sanchez void at a presumed reasonable cost? I'd be interested.

I need to note that I am not a fan of watching RA Dickey pitch and it has nothing to do with results. There is less strategy involved with a knuckleball pitcher, you just keep throwing the knuckleball. There is little setting up a hitter, varying the approach or guessing along with pitch selection. The knuckleball sometimes knuckles and sometimes it doesn't. It's not quite luck but it is non-predictable.

I just had to get that on the record.

Woah, woah, woah. You don't like plate walks Dewer? My fav was when Vernon Wells had T.I.'s "Dead & Gone" during his final season here.

I'm on the nickname train, Wilner's is terrible though.

re Jonny G. and "antagonist".   Yes, you’re right, Jonny.   I suppose I was remembering the two-spaces-after-a-period observation.  (I wasn’t even aware of doing that, btw.  And Chuck’s suggestion of typewriter-programming might just be a correct explanation for it.)  In any case, I always enjoy your posts, and find that we are far more often than not on the same page.  Sorry.  “Antagonist” was a poor choice of word.

ayj’s wondering over “manufactured[?]”  is too subtle for my old brain, I’m afraid.  Not sure what distinction he’s pondering here exactly.

As I’ve observed in the past,  I relish a good pun, and like a good nickname; but there is an emphasis on “good”.  And that’s a matter of opinion, of course.  Here, I share Bluto’s distaste for CanadianRakin.  I guess some nicknames can seem overly-manufactured, too obviously calculated to attract attention.  (Yeah, I’m a crank, ugly; and so are you.  It’s just that I’m a word crank, and you’re a numbers/stats crank.  We’re both bauxites.)

Group hug

That is a very good question ayj. Does the " go before or after the ?. It always felt right to me to put the " before the ?

I do not know the answer.

hmm, and here i thought the beauty of #CanadianRakin' was its simplicity and non-insiderness, the opposite of over-manufacturing. easily to get, easy to say, accurate and mildly amusing. Like The B-Sharps.

(tho i have a sneaking suspicion that dropping the G is too american for you guys.... actually it's probably the newfangled hashtag that grates more!)


ah well. different strokes.

#Thunderbats it is.

A couple days ago I put a semi-colon inside the quotation mark. I looked awful but felt fantastic.

ending that last sentence with a preposition

That's the kind of thing up with which we should not put.

But I insist on the Oxford comma. Its omission is a clear sign of the moral decay of contemporary civilization.

But I insist on the Oxford comma. Its omission is a clear sign of the moral decay of contemporary civilization.

Preach, Magpie!

"....up with which we should not put."

A great line, but stolen from Winston Churchill.  (Or perhaps a "tribute" to Churchill?)

On other matters:  I too support the Oxford comma.  And punctuation should be inside the quotation marks ONLY when it ends a sentence, or when it's a comma at the end of a clause or phrase.  

 

More Litotes please!  Today's Litote of the day comes from Mike Wilner on Twitter. 

Somebody tweeted to him:

just why is the oxford comma so appealing?  it seems there is a hidden reservoir of love for it ...

never heard of a litote before mike - keep em coming! 

A little late to the party..
#HansNFranz #CanadianThunderRakinBats How do you like them apples, Mr. #JustinVerLoser?