I don't know what is most pleasing.
Signed Guerrero,
Hoffman pitching great again.
Castro three great innings in a row over two appearances.
DJ Davis keeps hitting this year.

hoffman's lack of Ks are a big concern imo. He wasn't a K machine in college, either.

I don't have huge expectations from Hoffman.  He's coming off TJ surgery and holding his own.  That is good.  If he's healthy and his velocity is back and his control is serviceable, that is all that one could reasonably hope for at this stage.  If he comes to camp next year, impresses and starts out the season in double A, the club can take it from there. Nice and easy.

One of the side benefits of the Alford promotion is that it allows D.J. Davis to get regular time in centerfield.  He will be turning 21 later this month, and has made real progress on making contact.  Since June 1, he's walked 5 times and struck out 9 times in 97 PAs.  He still has some more work to do, but he can do it in Lansing and then move up next year to Dunedin.

solid start to Jose Espada's young MiLB career

agree re: Hoffman & the k's, worries me as well

Good day in the minors. Not so good in the majors.

Pompey needs to move up. He is eating up the AA ball pitching.

i dunno mike.

osuna came back from TJ last year and after just a few games of poor command (but still tons of Ks) he went right back to being dominant. and he was only 19 and also in Dunedin.

now maybe that just shows how amazing osuna is but still i think hoffman is past the point where TJ is still much of an excuse. especially since at age 22 he's a bit old for A+.

Well, he had his junior year cut short while he was still getting used to his new stuff, is making his first pro appearance at A+, and is coming off TJ. Osuna already had pretty refined secondaries, and 100 innings (and a few camps) as a pro.

At this point I'm pleased with the progress, hearing that his velocity's back, that his off-speed stuff is flashing what it did before, and that he's throwing innings without issue.

Regarding Hoffman's lack of K's - I'm not too worried - Kiley McDaniel mentioned in one of his Fangraphs prospect chat that the Jays had Hoffman pitching to contact to protect his arm & using his changeup more - his 3rd best pitch - also the jays had changed his mechanics to a more upright stance - I think eventually as he gets further away from the TJ surgery the K's will come back.

I also think the Jays will be very aggressive in promoting Hoffman.

I think he follows the Stroman path, being a college pitcher and all, unless he gets blocked by others really performing

I did read that chat transcript after the fact and IMO you could also tell that Kiley wasn't 100% sure that this was the case, and was more wishful thinking that this was a temporary thing that Toronto is doing to Hoffman because he just came off of surgery.

This is Kiley's response to a question re: Hoffman.

-------------------------

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qz43DwwaXc

This is Hoffman as an amateur. He’s aggressive down the hill, exploding at the plate. He isn’t that now, much closer to Aaron Sanchez mechanically.

I hope TOR is toning it down, having him pitch to contact, not throw the hard CB (his best pitch), throw more CH as a way to limit the pitch count to protect his arm while it’s more fragile, as he’s coming off of elbow surgery. I don’t know if that is the case, but I hope that’s what it is.

"Regarding Hoffman's lack of K's - I'm not too worried - Kiley McDaniel mentioned in one of his Fangraphs prospect chat that the Jays had Hoffman pitching to contact to protect his arm & using his changeup more - his 3rd best pitch - also the jays had changed his mechanics to a more upright stance - I think eventually as he gets further away from the TJ surgery the K's will come back."

that sounded more like kiley covering his butt than anything else, tbh. he didn't say he knew they had changed his mechanics from talking to the jays - just that hoffman didn't look near as good as expected. and tbh it seems pretty strange that the jays would make significant changes to a successful top pick straight off of injury....especially a guy whom they had made noises about moving very quickly through the system. they certainly didn't talk about him as a guy who needsd significant mechanical adjustments.

The upright delivery -- that was a change they made to Sanchez as well in order to help with his control, was it not? And as I recall, there was some controversy as to whether that change in mechanics was the right thing to do. I think Keith Law was among the critics, and it sounds like Kiley McDaniel is also questioning the decision with respect to Hoffman. Having those guys as critics, if indeed they are, makes me a bit nervous about our player development. Would love to hear if anyone else has any insights on this, though.

JB21 - I know Kiley has answered questions regarding Hoffman on different chats , my comments are based on his June 23rd chat - you're free to disagree.

Regarding the more upright mechanics similar to Sanchez - I've heard Greg Zaun also mention that Sanchez mechanics is an injury waiting to happen - obviously, the jays view those mechanics differently.

Well 3 Blue Jays made this week's BA Prospect Hot Sheet:
9) Alford .375/.423/.750 (9-for-24), 5 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 2 BB, 3 SO
13) Tellez 346/.414/.692 (9-for-26), 4 R, 3 HR, 8 RBIs, 3 BB, 3 SO
17) Hoffman 1-0, 1.80, 2 GS, 10.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 9 SO

The one that was missing from the list that would seem obvious IMO was Pompey who for the week had a line of:
.517/.563/.690 (15 for 29), 8R, 0-2B, 1-3B, 1-HR, 5-RBI, 3-BB, 7-SO

85BlueJays - the Kiley quote I pasted above was from the chat on the 23rd of June. I'm not saying I disagree, I wasn't necessarily disagreeing, I was just pointing out that Kiley didn't have insider information, he was merely hoping that was the case, and that Hoffman would return to his more aggressive self later.

I'm with you and Kiley, I hope that is the case.

"The upright delivery -- that was a change they made to Sanchez as well in order to help with his control, was it not? And as I recall, there was some controversy as to whether that change in mechanics was the right thing to do. I think Keith Law was among the critics, and it sounds like Kiley McDaniel is also questioning the decision with respect to Hoffman. Having those guys as critics, if indeed they are, makes me a bit nervous about our player development. Would love to hear if anyone else has any insights on this, though."

the other option is that keith law was making it up to justify flipflopping on a prospect.

evidence for this:

1. keith law was the ONLY person to ever mention it. the ONLY one. not one other person inside or outside the organization mentioned it at any point.

2. Sanchez' performance has remained relatively stable with the same strengths and weaknesses, statistically and stuffwise, since day one - despite keith law claiming that sanchez had switched back and forth between mechanics a number of times.

3. these claims by keith have seemed to coincide much more closely with his flipflopping opinion rather than sanchez' actual performance.

4. specifically, keith law was always much higher on sanchez than syndergaard while both were jays. a few months after that trade, once industry opinion was changing on that comp, was the first time keith law came up with this mysterious "short stride" observation, and used it directly to criticize the jays for ruining Sanchez while at the same time praising the mets for improving syndergaard. which absolved law of admitting he may have been wrong. the funny part is that sanchez' performance had actually improved after the trade, while noah's had been worse with the mets than it had been with the jays.

5. at the end of spring training, after our reporters bad spent weeks digging for stories, including a large number reporting on sanchez' developmemt and asking him, martin, and the staff about all the changes he was our wasn't trying to implement, and including specific quotes directly saying they weren't trying to change his mechanics.....keith law comes out of nowhere and claims that Martin apparently personally told him that Martin himself had decided to alter sanchez delivery and lengthen his stride. coincidentally, this came after sanchez had a few good spring outings. note that this was psrfectly timed to give all credit to any sanchez improvement to Martin, not the jays.

I'm pretty good at smelling BS and this one reeked.

Especially since Sanchez' stuff is every bit as deadly and maddening now as it was before keith started claiming any mechanical changes.


and it seems to me like kiley might have picked up this habit from keith. kiley in the offseason made some waves by claiming hoffman was better than some of the elite prospects in the game....which nobody else in the industry agreed with. now he goes and watches hoffman, and hoffman doesn't look near as good as he hoped.....and immediately, without talking to anyone, kiley claims that the jays have made a significant change to his delivery.

which of course doesn't even make sense - the jays have made noises about hoffman being in the mlb picture as soon as the end of thjs year. He's a top pick and dominant 22yr old college pitcher. This is not a guy they were looking at making significant changes too.

of course, it's worrying that Kiley is the high guy on hoffman and from one viewing is already looking to for scapegoats. That doesn't give me a ton of faith in his earlier observations.

I wouldn't worry about what these prospect guys say about mechanics. the jays are pretty open about how they develop guys. when they make a mechanical change they don't hide it.


but hey maybe i'm wrong. we're all smart guys and there's plenty of photo and video evidence - has anyone actually witnessed this short stride that sanchez apparently uses?

"
The one that was missing from the list that would seem obvious IMO was Pompey who for the week had a line of:
.517/.563/.690 (15 for 29), 8R, 0-2B, 1-3B, 1-HR, 5-RBI, 3-BB, 7-SO"

does pompey qualify as a prospect by their rules?

here's a link to sanchez video from 2012 - prior to keith law claiming thia mechanical adjustment.

can anyone tell me there's a significant difference between that delivery and hia current one?

sorry. here it is:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IsFaQ7Aqs00

Pompey is not a prospect.

Has anyone watched Hoffman? His curve was his best pitch. Is he still throwing that or just going fastball/changeup? Odds are you don't lose and above average curveball just because of TJ. He also had a slider for a 4th pitch, so I think he'll need some time to put everything together. I wouldn't be concerned unless you're expecting him to start a Blue Jays game this year.

I know last night was turrible as Sir Charles might say and many are in need of a distraction but getting worked up over 42 innings of post-surgery performance by Hoffman is not a great way to start a weekend. Some thoughts:

• Everyone heals differently so stop fretting that he isn't Osuna. He wasn't Osuna before surgery either. Doesn't mean he can't be great.
• Insinuating anything in the negative re: McDaniel over one comment in a chat would be called an over-reaction. McDaniel has been Hoffman's biggest supported since before he was drafted in addition to being one of the most open and accessible prospectors in the game.
• Considering the parade of arms the Jays have drafted/developed over the last few years, maybe time fretting about our pitching development could be better used in other endeavours.

The need to pull threads that aren't loose never ceases to amaze me I suppose. Perhaps MyLegacy has a dram or two he can share to calm the nerves of some of the Bauxite brethren?

hodgie, it's not just his performance this year that has me spooked. It's his lackluster college stats, especially the lack of strikeouts, that had me concerned about the hype in the first place.

Osuna wasn't Osuna prior to surgery. He came back from surgery a better pitcher than he had ever been prior. He's probably not the best example to use as a baseline for defining success coming of Tommy John surgery.

Prior to his Tommy John surgery, Osuna was regarded as a top prospect, but the knock on him was that scouts didn't see his frame as "projectable". Then he went and projected another 5 mph on his fastball.

that's not entirely true. He was already able to hit mid 90s as a 16yr old. getting that up to the high 90s in your early 20s isn't a shocker.

this article from 2012 when he was 17 had him topping out at 96: http://jaysjournal.com/2012/08/11/the-upheaval-of-roberto-osuna/

it is true that he wasn't in the best shape back then so stamina and holding that velocity was an iasue.


but i agree osuna is so awesome that comparing anyone to him might be unfair.

Hoffman may not be the greatest collegiate pitcher of this decade, but lackluster is an odd way to describe his college career. By most scouting accounts he took a big jump forward right before his junior season, dominating the Cape Cod league and carrying that into his junior season before the injury. The question shouldn't be if he can dominate, but rather can he get back to dominating. He has already demonstrated that possible outcome is more than just projection.

i don't think it's odd.

even his breakout junior half-year numbers aren't even as impressive as, say, Jon Harris.....or Deck McGuire. More like Chad Jenkins. (and his numbers before that year weren't pretty at all). hopefully he pitched in a much steonger conference than they did.

I love the stuff but I'd feel better if the numbers were there too....and what's worrying me is that i'm not surprised his K numbers are low this year, based on what he's done before.

Similar worries as I've had for Sanchez, really.

I accept that uglyone, but it's one thing to be able to 'hit' the mid-nineties, and another to sit there pitch after pitch, which is what he does now. He now "hits" 98-99.

"Pompey is not a prospect."

Oh pray tell, is there a different standard that BA uses to determine prospect status?

Not sure. Going with rookie status i. e. 130 at bats or 50 IPs.

Pompey got 39 last year and 83 this year for a grand total of 122.  He's technically below threshold but will surely cross it this year.

3 of our 5 best hitters are in Dunedin and they are all raking tonight.

"Not sure. Going with rookie status i. e. 130 at bats or 50 IPs."

Exactly, since technically Pompey still hasn't passed his rookie status, I figured he'd still be classified as a prospect. At least other sites still classify him as a prospect so figured BA would as well. Hence my original comment that BA missed one there.

Rowdy Tellez just his 2nd homer of the game for Dunedin.  That makes five in 35 FSL at-bats.  En fuego.

The Jays have garnered a reputation over the last few years as being good developers of pitching talent. However the development of hitters has been not so good.

This year the tide seems to be turning. There are plenty of hitters who are doing well in the minors, Dalton Pompey, Roemen Fields, Althony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, and Richard Urena to name a few off the top of my head. Dwight Smith might qualify, even DJ Davis is having a decent year.

Lane Thomas had 6 RBI's today for Vancouver including a grand slam. Richard Urena had 3 hits in his Dunedin debut. Dawel Lugo is 3-3 for Lansing.

Thanks, Uglyone -- interesting thoughts. If Keith Law is the only one making the claim re. Sanchez, then there's certainly room for skepticism (even without getting into his motives).

Castro has been promoted to AAA. Looks like they are fast tracking him as a reliever again. Not a fan. Maybe they think they have enough starting pitcher prospects, but, um, TINSTAAPP.

AY, how could Castro to AAA possibly be a bad thing? do you feel the Osuna track isn't working?  Osuna will be a starter for us, building up his innings in the pen with the big league team - and the big league coaches. 

It's not - he's a reliever now - it's, let's develop him in the best environment and help the big league club at the same time. worked for hentgen, wells, stottlemeyre off the top of my head ...

solid Dunedin debut for Reid-Foley today: 5ip, 2h, 0xbh, 0r, 0bb, 2k

want more Ks but all the other zeros there more than make up for that.

The best thing for Castro is to continue his development as a starter in the minors...not to skip two levels to relieve in AAA.

If it was okay for Osuna to skip three levels and pitch successfully in the majors (becoming an absolutely crucial member of the Jays bullpen this year), why is it not okay for Castro to skip two levels and pitch at Buffalo?  I'm not seeing the difference between those two cases.

Rowdy Tellez went 3-5 with 2 walks in a suspended game today.  His combined line for A ball this year is .300/.365/.483.   After a rough start in Buffalo, Dalton Pompey's combined minor league line as of yesterday is now .300/.368/.447. 

IMO the reality is the budget. Castro, Osuna & others will have to help out as much as they can. They are cheap.

Trades will cost money if the contract is big and also prospects. There has to be an acceptable balance for any trade to occur.

I have a feeling a lot of the prospects in Dunedin are going to be dealt this year to get pitching for the big league team. Alford, Tellez, Urena and Hoffman are going to be prime targets in any trade.

CF, I'd prefer if Osuna was developing as a starter as well.

"If it was okay for Osuna to skip three levels and pitch successfully in the majors (becoming an absolutely crucial member of the Jays bullpen this year), why is it not okay for Castro to skip two levels and pitch at Buffalo? I'm not seeing the difference between those two cases."

It's only ok for Osuna because he's awesome, and has been one of the best RP in mlb. If he was anything less, it wouldn't be ok.

but Osuna has nothing to do with Castro. Castro has never been as good as osuna.

In an alternate universe, Jays would have had a better offseason for the bullpen and Osuna and Castro would have been tearing up the high minors as starters right now.

We all think very highly of Osuna. So he could have started in Dunedin and if good enough been promoted to NH.
If he is dominant in NH then who knows where he ends up now at the beginning of July.