Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Game Threads Blue Jays vs. Red Sox - June 29-July 2
The Boston Red Sox come to Baseball North for a four-game series, including an afternoon game on Canada Day.


The Red Sox won two of three in Tampa Bay, just like the Blue Jays did, but they are still last in the AL East at 34-43 and are 8 games back of the Orioles and Rays for first place. Boston will be without Dustin Pedroia (hamstring strain) and Hanley Ramirez (hand injury). Deven Marrero made his major league debut Sunday.

Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 7:07 pm ET - Clay Buccholz (5-6, 3.68) vs. R.A. Dickey (3-7, 4.88)
Tuesday at 7:07 pm ET - Eduardo Rodriguez (3-2, 4.33) vs. Marco Estrada (5-3, 3.45)
Wednesday at 1:07 pm ET - Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.54) vs. Mark Buehrle (8-4, 3.81)
Thursday at 7:07 pm ET - Wade Miley (7-7, 4.38) vs. Matt Boyd (0-1, 5.40)

The fourth-place Jays are 41-36 after winning two of three at home against Texas. They are only one game back of Tampa Bay and Baltimore and a half-game behind the New York Yankees.

John Lott of The National Post has a story on Roberto Osuna and Brendan Kennedy of The Toronto Star takes a closer look at Kevin Pillar. That rhymes! What a start to the week!
Posted by #2JBrumfield on Monday, June 29 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox - June 29-July 2 | 210 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
John Northey - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#304005) #
Nice to have Dickey start the first game of a series that way if there is any knuckleball effect the Jays will get to take full advantage of it.  Odd that the 2 LHP are one after the other but I guess that is just how it happens at this point of the season.
Post all-star break how should the rotation be rejuggled?
If same guys as now...
Buehrle, Estrada, Dickey, Hutch, Boyd.  Hutch is falling down to the #5 slot if/when Sanchez is back.

[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#304006) #
Ok, so we get the BoSox missing 2 of their better hitters. This is the time to really use that homefield advantage and win minimum 3/4.

I think tonight's game is the important one - the biggest mismatch on paper (just looking at the starters' ERA) in the Red Sox favour. If we can beat Buchholz with Dickey, then I think our changes of a sweep are very good.

[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#304007) #
Third crack tonight to go 6 games over .500 for the 1st time.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#304010) #
For entertainment during the game, I advise going to Sons of Sam Horn as they are very funny to read as they go nuts.  Right now they are all having Donaldson envy.  Seems the Sox asked about him but were told 'not available'.  Glad we have a GM who is a pain in the butt and never accepts 'no' as an answer (but does accept 'too many $$$').  Today's thread is at http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/90099-629-cant-you-hear-me-knocking/
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#304011) #
dickey is toast.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#304012) #
I've noticed this year, it feels like every start, where Dickey has a great knuckleball in the first or second, and then it just flattens out after that.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#304013) #
In his first 5 June starts, Dickey's line = 32ip 29h 3hr 14bb 25k 3.09era 1.34whip.
[ Reply to This ]
finch - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#304015) #
REGGIE PRUITT SIGNS WITH THE JAYS FOR 500k!!!

Way to go AA!!! Sorry for yelling
[ Reply to This ]
Smaj - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#304016) #
Jays hitters seem to be cooling off, from my standpoint they are getting a little pull happy with lots of ground balls & pop ups.
Over the past 6 games opposing pitching staffs have limited the offence to 4, 6, 13, 3, 4 & 5 hits so far tonight. Be nice to see some middle & opposite field approaches.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#304017) #
Well they scored one more run than any sane person should've expected them to score tonight.

Just win the next three.

[ Reply to This ]
Eephus - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#304018) #
Just when I thought I've heard every complaint about a baseball manager there is, a dude calls in to Wilner declaring he doesn't trust Gibbons because "of the way he walks out onto the field."

Which just proves that I haven't heard anywhere near every complaint quite yet...

[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#304019) #
Wow.  Pruitt seemed a lost cause early on.  Just goes to show that AA never gives up.  Gotta love it.  Checking Bluebird Banter who has an excellent 2015 Draft Signing Table set up we can see the Jays now have the top 10 picks signed, all below slot.  Others ranked in the top 200 by someone signed are Christian Williams, Reggie Pruitt, Leaving only Kyle Davis RHP (ranked #178) as a top 200 talent drafted but not signed - he was picked in the 29th round.  Other ranked but not signed (yet) are round 11 Marrick Crouse RHP (222) and round 17 Chandler Eden RHP (278) and the Jays should have about $435k left over to stay under the cap plus $100k that sub 10th rounders are allowed.  Just 6 haven't signed yet in total.  Nice job AA!  Last year 7 ranked players didn't sign but all were drafted after the first 10 rounds.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#304020) #
A far better complaint is what the heck is Goins doing starting in LF?  If anyone who can play the outfield is on the roster who can hit even a tiny bit he should be out there instead of Goins who doesn't hit enough to play 2B everyday let along LF.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 11:14 PM EDT (#304021) #
AA was on the FAN 590 talking on a variety of subjects. I'm linking Sportnet's synopsis, which does contain a link to the audio. The one big takeaway for me was when he quoted Warren Buffet in relation to how his philosophy has changed.

".. while Anthopoulos prioritized value early in his tenure as the Blue Jays’ GM, his decision making has evolved over the years. Instead of seeking good deals at all costs, he has started embracing investor Warren Buffett’s idea of prioritizing quality.

“It’s better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price,” "

Sounds to me, if he does make a deal, it won't be a for a mediocre player like he did a few years back with the Happ trade.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, June 29 2015 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#304022) #
Forgot the link

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/anthopoulos-blue-jays-aim-to-upgrade-pen-rotation/
[ Reply to This ]
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#304023) #
Actually, while 2nd round pick Brady Singer has indicated he will sign, I don't think he has actually signed yet & what amount he signs for will have an impact on other potential signings. Great news on the Pruitt signing, for much less than I expected a Vandy commit to want.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#304024) #
Singer is a protected pick. Who is left unsigned that will be affected by Singer's takeaway?
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#304025) #
A far better complaint is what the heck is Goins doing starting in LF?

Gibby is obsessed with offense and will find ways to put the bats he likes in the lineup. And of course, he's got he's own personal taste in bats which is puzzling at times. At least he's moved away from his earlier habit of reshuffling the lineup every other game.
[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#304026) #
I'm pretty happy with whatever approach the Jays offence has been using for the 2015 season, myself.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#304027) #
yup, pretty hard to go after gibby what with what he's been able to do with lottery tickets in the bullpen and at the bottom of the order this year. he's had missteps but overall it's been pretty damn good. add in great team baserunning, too.

not much gibby can do about crap starting pitching.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#304028) #
Don't know how many of you have read the Sportsnet recap of AA's interview, but there was one other comment I found interesting. In discussing Navarro, AA made mention of Dioner's good play-calling and opined that he didn't know of any stats out there (I'm paraphrasing) that measures that skill.

However, I have ESPN Insider, and I recalled a piece written by Harry Pavlidis of BP a month ago that claimed they now are able to quantify how many runs are saved, a stat he called GCAA or Game-Calling runs Above Average. A J Ellis, according to their numbers, has been the best, saving 38 runs over the past 3 seasons.

Just wondering, since some here are/have been BP subscribers, if these stats are available there, and if so how well does it rate Navarro?

One last thing - no matter how good Navarro may be at play-calling, it doesn't mean he should be constantly DH'ing while Smoak sits.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#304030) #
The draft table looks really good this year
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2015/6/10/8755563/2015-draft-signing-table

34/40 signed and money still available. He did spend extra money on Pruitt, but there is still money available. I imagine AA is focusing on Kyle Davis and then Crouse.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#304033) #
hypobole that Buffet quote warmed my cockles up good.

and i think it's pretty clear that navarro has some defensive value that is not being accounted for in the currently avilable stats. pitchers pitch well with him back there.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#304035) #
The club does have an awkward catcher situation.  You want Martin catching four days out of every five, barring injury.  Navarro merits more time than one day out of five and is a poorer option at DH than several of the other players on the club.  Thole is an acceptable backup but there is literally no one behind him due to injuries.  It is hard to trade Navarro because you really need a serviceable catcher coming back for depth reasons.

It doesn't seem that the club has picked up a veteran catcher to stow in triple A, which surprises me.  Maybe they figure that Ochinko is as good as a veteran. 

[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#304036) #
Erik Kratz is a free agent and might be able to be signed for depth.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#304037) #
Wonderful idea, spifficus.
[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#304039) #
If Kratz is willing to go to AAA, I'd be pretty happy with that.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#304040) #
That would be the sticky issue, but it might be more palatable if something were worked out with regards to Navarro first so he can both get the playing time he needs, and see a clearer path back to the big leagues.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#304041) #
I'm pretty sure Kratz is in AAA for the Red Sox organization. They claimed him, put him through waivers again, and he passed through.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#304042) #
If I were a veteran C looking for a AAA deal, the last team I'd sign with is the Jays while they have Martin, Navarro, Thole, and Dickey in the system.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#304044) #
Red Sox DFA'd Kratz a few days ago and he elected Free Agency.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/erik-kratz-elects-free-agency.html
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#304045) #

I'm pretty sure Kratz is in AAA for the Red Sox organization.

He elected free agency after his outright.

[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#304047) #
Oops! My bad. I thought he had decided to go to AAA.
[ Reply to This ]
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#304048) #
Sonny Gray has been scratched from his start tonight, notification from the MLB At Bat App. Is he injured or being traded? Details are very limited at best.
[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#304049) #
"illness", according to several sources around baseball twitter. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#304050) #
gray would be some kinda get.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#304052) #
what the heck is Goins doing starting in LF?

Because he was 9-19 against Buchholz.

R.A. Dickey needs to rub Drew Hutchison's head and see if his luck rubs off.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#304053) #
Donaldson DHs tonight and Valencia gets the start at third against the left-hander.  Colabello is in left, and Navarro catches Estrada again. 

Even giving Martin the night off (with a day game tomorrow), it's a devastating lineup against a LHP. 

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#304054) #
Dickey hasn't done much with the run support he has received.  Dickey has had support of 3-5 runs 7 times.  He's had an ERA of 5.8 during those games and that hasn't helped his record.  Hutchison has been extremely well supported this year, but when the team has given him 3-5 runs, he's pitched to a 3.8 ERA and kept his team in the game (notwithstanding having had bad BABIP luck).  For what it's worth, Dickey was much better supported than Hutchison last year.  Again, Hutchison pitched decently in the 14 games where he had 3-5 runs of support last year. 

It is true that he is having difficulty getting calls on some of his pitches, perhaps more so than in New York.  I don't know that will change.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#304055) #
Dave Cameron has his AL All-Stars.  They include Donaldson and Martin in starting roles, and Bautista and Osuna off the bench. 
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#304056) #
Mike, are you sure you didn't miss Cameron putting Colabello in left? :)
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#304057) #
Dickey hasn't done much with the run support he has received.

True dat, and he's he's had a real gift for matching his best outings with those days when the offense wasn't there. It's difficult for a pitcher to have a losing record in his Quality Starts, but he's found a way (2-4, 2.75).
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#304058) #
That, by the way, is a pretty lousy ERA for a pitcher's Quality Starts (it's usually around 2.00 or lower). Hutchison doesn't have as many Quality Starts as Dickey, but he's pitched much better in his (4-0 1.53).
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#304059) #
Every time I see Marco Estrada, I'm taken aback, wondering when Marco Scutaro became a pitcher. Separated at birth..
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#304060) #
Estrada is a great reminder of how down right inexplicable the game of baseball can be. His last three outings are so extreme and such complete outliers they defy explanation. After Estrada's inexcusable first inning performance tonight, young Blake Swihart was lucky he was not DFA'd before returning to the dugout for swinging the bat at all in that plate appearance.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#304061) #
Maybe Magpie is onto something, is that actually Scutaro on the mound tonight?
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#304062) #
So, I wanted to have a look at the quality of their quality of starts (8 for Dickey, 5 for Hutchison), and it was their antithesis, the clunkers, that jumped out at me. Dickey has had 1 start with less than 5 innings and more runs than innings this year. Hutchison has had 5 (or 4 if you discount one unearned run). He received no-decisions in all of them.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#304063) #
In the silver linings department, that was a pretty decent last at-bat from Pillar.  He chased one up and out of the zone early in the count, but then did a nice job taking pitches he should take and fouling off a few.  Uehara was pitching well, but at least Pillar battled him. 
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#304064) #
Whither Justin Smoak?
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#304065) #
Also in the silver lining department was the job of the bullpen to give keep them close.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#304066) #
This would have been a good series to cement Boston's lowly position in the standings, but the Red Sox are fighting their way back into relevancy in the AL East.

As much as I like the core of this team, sometimes I can't help but feel that Gibbons's teams always seem to succumb to the gravitational pull of .500 (more or less). Irrational, I know.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#304067) #
I don't think it's irrational. It's certainly what the Jays have done for years. They never end up far from .500......
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#304068) #
To distract myself from the annoyance that is playing poorly against Boston, I started pondering when Mr. Pompey might make a return to the big club. After tonight's 2-3 effort with a walk thrown in for good measure, Pompey has now spent 85 ABs making a mockery of the Eastern League, sporting a wRC+ that will be north of 210 after this evening's action. I can't imagine it happens until AA clears his 1B/DH logjam but it would be nice to see Pompey patrolling the outfield once again at the RC in short order.
[ Reply to This ]
cruzin - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#304069) #
Well if Pompey keeps the hitting up, hopefully we see up around just after the all-star break, regardless of the 1B/DH log jam.
[ Reply to This ]
Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 30 2015 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#304070) #
Well. There were some pretty lame at-bats up and down the lineup tonight, no? The weather was reminiscent of April and so were the home-run cuts. I hope this isn't heading toward a team-wide slump...

I would like to think Estrada has earned a mulligan. The night did start with an E4.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#304071) #
For years we've been on managers cases about not using the best reliever in the highest leverage/optimal situations.

Seattle's closer was brought in to face Trout and Pujols in the eighth to protect a 3-1 lead, leaving the 9th for their current 8th inning guy.

Here's what the opponent's closer (Huston Street) had to say about that strategy.

"I'll retire if that ever happens. If they ever tell me, 'Oh, we're gonna start using you in these high-leverage situations.' ... All right, good. You now can go find someone else to do that, because I'm going home."

Managing often isn't as simple as we like to think.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#304073) #
Street is 2 shy of 300 saves. That puts him at 27 in the all-time list. Henke is at 21 with 311.

He was also a reliever in the minor league. He's not the average reliever.

[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#304074) #
The idea is to manage your relievers in such a way that nobody crowns himself King Closer who Must pitch in the 9th inning (and to stay away from signing or trading for those sort of attitudes). It's pretty easy for Lloyd McClendon to use a rookie in Carson Smith who had been closing for 3 weeks in the 8th instead of the 9th when he never officially announced a closer after removing Fernando Rodney from the role, and when he had made it clear only two days before that he intended on working Rodney back into the closer role so he can continue shooting arrows and pulling magic plantains out of his pants.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#304075) #
Thanks hypobole for H Street's comment. I am very interested in what Bauxites have to say about this.

IMO if you get through Trout & Pujols the rest of the game is much easier in theory.

Also in theory you are going to get beat more often by the #3 & 4 hitters than 5-9 and possible PHs. Your reputation would suffer and so would the glory & future $ suffer.

He gave an honest opinion.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#304076) #
scottt, not quite sure what point you're trying to make.

The average reliever isn't who you want in a crucial, high leverage situation (unless you're the opponent).

If Street is the Angel's best reliever, sabermetric thinking is that it makes the most sense to use him in the highest leverage situation possible.

[ Reply to This ]
ogator - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#304078) #
About a baseball player saying he will "go home" if he is not used as he wishes to be used, well, the team is paying him millions of dollars, in some cases over 20 million dollars per year. He is an employee. If he doesn't wish to be paid millions of dollars, the team should find someone who does wish to be paid millions of dollars.
There are different jobs in baseball. There are players, managers and general managers. Someone who is trying to do someone else's job, needs to be reminded of precisely what his job happens to be. I don't want unhappy players and I don't want to be inflexible but players play and management manages.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#304079) #
Speaking (tangentially) about Street, Pujols and Trout, who had Jerry Dipoto as the GM on the hot seat (considering they're a half game better than the Jays)? I wonder if the topic of closers and leverage came up in the reportedly heated player/coaching staff/GM meeting...
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#304080) #
Managers rarely get to choose who their GM signs or trades for. The AA interview I posted earlier, he sounded apologetic for the lack of bullpen help he gave Gibby in the offseason. But it's Gibbons job to work with what he's given.

Anyone who's worked in managerial positions knows there are a good percentage of employees whose attitudes and actions don't exactly dovetail with what's best for the company. I would guess Street is far from alone in his thinking, though he may be the most outspoken.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#304081) #
What you said ogator. Players play & managers manage. Unfortunately, I do not "think" that happens.

Examples that I personally believe, but could be completely false.
Bautista spent a lot of time at 3B in ST a few years ago and then quietly became a fixture at his regular RF position. Why?

The 3B that we traded to the Reds and received EE. That was well done, because it was quiet. The player requested the trade. These are the facts the way I believe them, but I could be wrong.

Last one. George Bell.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#304082) #
Today's lineup features Carrera in left-field, Goins at second base and Smoak at first base behind Buehrle. 
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#304084) #
Steve Tolleson has been DFA'd. I still think that despite his limitations; a minimum salary middle infielder who has wRC+ of 161 and 137 vs LHP's this season and last may fetch something (though not much) in a trade.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#304085) #
Saw a trade idea - Scott Kazmir and Tyler Clippard for Boyd, D. Smith jr. and Tirado.

Not a fan of trading prospects, but that's just me. This trade suggestion does sound fair.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#304086) #
Sounds fair for the Jays. Not so sure for the A's.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#304087) #
Great start for the the Jays thanks to Eddie and that guy who sits on the bench.
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#304088) #
Street is just running his mouth. If his manager asked him to pitch a high-leverage eighth, he's not going to throw his glove on the dugout floor and head to the clubhouse to pack up his locker on the way to the GM's office to tender his resignation. He wouldn't be happy about losing out on the save opportunity (never mind that there might not BE a save opportunity if a lesser reliever can't hold the lead) and it sure wouldn't help future contract negotiations with the team, but he's not going to quit on the spot.

That quote just makes him look dumb.
[ Reply to This ]
Parker - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#304089) #
I guess he'd actually be throwing his glove down in the bullpen rather than the dugout, oops.

I feel my point still stands, though.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#304090) #
And the guy who sits on the bench does it again from the other side.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#304091) #
yeah maybe play our starting 1B more often.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#304092) #
that kazmir/clippard trade sounds good valuewise....but that trade would be "buying a fair company at a wonderful price", not "buying a wonderful company at a fair price".

while both are good, I wouldn't feel super great leaning on Kazmir as a "legit #1" or clippard as a "bullpen stopper".
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#304093) #
Pillar's bounceback from what i thought was his inevitable regression back to bench quality player has been very impressive. I'm starting to think he might actually be a starting quality CF longterm.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#304094) #
I would think Kazmir/Clippard pairing would be somewhere between fair and wonderful.

Unfortunately we really do need SP help and the wonderful SP's (Hamels/Cueto) will have a lot of suitors and will require an overpay to acquire.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#304095) #
Just reflecting on Anthopoulos's most recent off-season, in which he acquired Donaldson, Martin, Travis, Smoak, Colabello, Saunders, Hendriks, Estrada, Schulz and Carrera.

Add in Valencia at last year's trade deadline, you have a stunning haul of talent since last July at very little overall financial cost and cost in prospect talent or draft picks. I'd say AA is getting better and better at his craft.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#304096) #
The point I'm making about Street is that he believes he is contracted to close, not to pitch. That doesn't apply to anybody the Jays have used the last few years.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#304097) #
i don't think kazmir would be much more than fair. there's a guy benefiting from his home park in a big way. at this point he's a finesse lefty who only averages 6.0ip/gs, with pretty poor road stats. not really #1 horse type. even at his best he fits best as a #2/3 guy. and he also has a decent shot at blowing up completely in a park like ours.

Clippard's got a decent era but his peripherals have dipped from solid in previous years to flat out bad this year.

these are probably solid players (though either could easily blow up) but i don't think there's much chance they can be the reliable top of the pitching staff type guys we need.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#304098) #
"The point I'm making about Street is that he believes he is contracted to close, not to pitch. That doesn't apply to anybody the Jays have used the last few years"

i actually think it benefits the bullpen to have a clear out and out closer. he doesn't even have to be the best rp in the pen - as long as he doesn't freak out in that role.

the key is not to overpay for them - and to have some very good arms to use underneath him, who might have issues when being saddled wi5h the closer label otherwise.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#304099) #
To complete the argument, this year the Jays are missing a closer, they have a number of high leverage options.

Btw, 3-1 with the bases empty is not what I consider a very high leverage situation. You could give up a homerun, a double, a single and a base on ball and still get out of the innning 3-2.

I would have asked Street what he thinks of pitching more than 1 inning for a save.

[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#304100) #
Street hasn't had a 4 out save since 2009.

3-1 wasn't high leverage by the book, but was by reality, because of Trout and Pujols. The 4 guys Rodney faced in the 9th have wRC+ of 101,73,64 and 7(yeah, seven).

Not really arguing, more pointing out. Lots of players agree with Street, just don't voice it in public.

Girardi had it easy - Rivera and Robertson often had 4 (or more) out saves. Some players like Street hate it and it's easier for the manager to acquiesce and lose a few games in the eighth, than mess with the closers head and have them blow up in the ninth - keeps the dinosaur media off your back as well.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#304101) #
The home runs were nice (Smoak's were indeed bombs), but I hope they get back to dominating pitchers more by erosion than by explosion.  With a duel of left-handers tomorrow, I hope that Colabello is not in left-field for Carrera.  Valencia can play the position adequately and is fine there.  It is reasonable to give Colabello or Smoak the start at first base.  I imagine that Gibbons would be inclined to give Smoak the start after today's hot performance. 

[ Reply to This ]
Sherrystar - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#304102) #
I understand that the period to sign International prospects starts tomorrow. Anyone have any details on rumoured targets?
[ Reply to This ]
BlueMonday - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#304103) #
With Smoak's performance today, i was thinking it was time to DH Edwin to allow his shoulder to heal. Oh ... Wait ...maybe his shoulder is better.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#304104) #
Ok. Remind me what Navarro has been getting regular AB over Smoak....

Also, rumors are norris may get called up.
http://www.tsn.ca/talent/norris-could-start-for-jays-on-10-game-trip-1.323074

I think it is in case Boyd doesn't do better this start.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#304105) #
From what I understand we'll blow our entire budget on Vlad Guerrero jr.

This board is fantastic:

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all
[ Reply to This ]
Sherrystar - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#304106) #
The Dodgers are going to spend $33M on 3 IFA's? That is just wrong.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Wednesday, July 01 2015 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#304107) #
I believe it's a spot start to give some rest to the rotation and to go with three leftys vs the Chi Sox.

I read that AA is going to let Pompey continue to do his thing in AA as AA is fine calling him up from there. As well, Castro will stay in the pen in the minors and should get called up to AA or AAA soon.

With a lot of young arms available I don't see AA going after a RP, definitely a SP and back filling from there.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 05:19 AM EDT (#304109) #
I'm not sure the Jays have demonstrated they have a RP that can handle the psychological pressure of closing. Cecil has not been good in the role. Osuna has 2 saves and Delabar has 1. What am I missing?

If Norris gets a start and does well  and Sanchez is close to returning, that would be a weird timing to get a starter.
Unless we're talking about trading Dickey or Hutch for an upgrade. Unless we're thinking of sending Estrada back to the pen because he's had one bad start?

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 05:22 AM EDT (#304110) #
Street hasn't had a 4 out save since 2009.

I'd still like to hear what he thinks. He doesn't get a chance to close if the game is lost in the 8th.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#304111) #
Per ESPN Stats and Info:

Only 3 players this year have hit 2 HR's in a game 430+ ft - Bryce Harper, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Smoak.

Not going to go into a diatribe, but is there anyone here that DOESN'T think Smoak 1B, EE DH should be the everyday lineup?
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#304112) #
Castro being put in a relief role in the minors tells me that AA is going after a SP and letting the pen sort itself out internally. That might be the best idea since the pen isn't as bad as it is made out to be, and if Castro comes back up and improves from his earlier season performance, then it's another hard throwing option to throw out there with Osuna, Delabar, Cecil, Loup, Hendriks, and Schultz.

I wonder who AA will use as bait to get a starter, though. I can't see him getting anyone good without parting with at least Norris, but if the Jays are giving up six years of control there then they better be getting back more than two and a half months of control. Hamels is the only long-term difference maker available, unless I'm missing someone.
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#304113) #
Navarro getting DH at bats does not make any sense to me. Smoak should be the everyday first baseman against RHP. Unfortunately, Gibbons seems to value Navarro a lot more than he should.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#304114) #
Does it  make sense to part with Norris for a starter. Isn't he almost ready?  I could understand trading Castro for an established closer with more than 1 year left.

I wouldn't give much for 2 months of anybody.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#304116) #
In the "easy to miss" department, the Jays have allowed fewer runs than the Yankees so far this season.  I did a double take when I had a look at the Yankee rotation ERA. 
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#304117) #
Not going to go into a diatribe, but is there anyone here that DOESN'T think Smoak 1B, EE DH should be the everyday lineup?

Until Pompey or Saunders arrives to play LF, thereby squeezing out one of the 1B/DH types, a LF platoon of Carrera/Valencia and a 1B platoon of Smoak/Colabello would seem to be the way to go. On paper at least. Of course Navarro's presence changes those dynamics as far as Gibbons is concerned.

Not sure who the casualty would be upon the arrival of a left fielder. I would prefer that Valencia take over Colabello's platoon role at 1B (in my above scheme) since he has a longer history of bashing lefties and can play 3B, a useful skill for a backup on this team. Even though Colabello's bat has been a welcome and surprise addition and despite his upbeat story of bucking the odds and finding a home in the majors, he would appear to be the man on the bubble. Or probably should be.

That said, I don't think Colabello will be moved in-season this year for a number of reasons. There might not be 100% faith in the new LF (be it Pompey or Saunders), so the door would need to be left open for a scheme whereby Colabello is back in LF. Further, the optics would be bad -- both internally and externally -- were the organization to jettison a player who has hit so well (BABIP inflation be damned) and who filled a hole that desperately needed filling.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#304118) #
The upcoming Blue Jay road trip would be a fine summer car trip for a fan- Detroit, Chicago and Kansas City.  That's 16 hours of driving in more or less a straight line.   The Lugnuts are in town this weekend, so you could catch Richard Urena as well. 

After this road trip heading into the All-Star break, the schedule is kind in July and August with plenty of days off.  There are two short trips out to the West Coast, but very well planned to reduce jet lag. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#304119) #
I agree with Chuck with one comment.  It's not clear to me that the arrival of Pompey would change the dynamics significantly.  Pompey can fill Carrera's niche; he's hit RHP noticeably better than LHP over his career in the minors and in his limited time in the major leagues. 

It's a real shame about the 7 man pen.  A bench of Colabello, Valencia, Goins, Navarro and Carrera (after Pompey arrives) would have made Earl Weaver happy. 

[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#304120) #
In the "easy to miss" department, the Jays have allowed fewer runs than the Yankees so far this season.  I did a double take when I had a look at the Yankee rotation ERA.

That's surprising.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#304124) #
"Unfortunately, Gibbons seems to value Navarro a lot more than he should."

I guess the manager should allow a 5m asset to wallow away on the bench for a marginal offensive upgrade (assuming there is one at all) just to keep Batter's Box happy.

If anybody values Navarro a lot more than he should, it's Alex Anthopoulos (and I'm not saying that is the case). You can't blame the manager for not allowing Navarro to become a problem on the bench when he came through repeatedly in the clutch in 2014. If Smoak everyday at 1B with EE at DH is the correct lineup, the only way to achieve it properly is to dump Navarro for whatever you can get, instead of holding on to him as a depth piece because nobody matches up with what you perceive his value to be.

Instead of the frequent bashing of John Gibbons, some posters might want to consider that Danny Valencia and Justin Smoak are putting up the numbers they are posting (career years) because of the way their manager is using them, and not in spite of it. Gibbons is doing an incredible job this year of managing the talent he was provided by the front office.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#304125) #
The Jays' pitching overall is trending much closer to average than awful as we get to the halfway point.

instead of just era+, fangraphs gives us era-, fip-, and xfip- to adjust for run environment...here's how the jays rank in mlb:

102era- (T-16th)
105fip- (T-19th)
104xfip- (T-18th)


a big upgrade at the top of the pitching staff could bump tha5 from average to well above average.

[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#304127) #
It's not clear to me that the arrival of Pompey would change the dynamics significantly.

Actually, yes, I agree. Be it Pompey or Saunders who arrives, Carrera would likely be the one squeezed out with Pompey/Saunders taking over the role. The team would presumably continue using infielders (Colabello, Valencia, Goins) as the backup outfielders.

Now, were both Pompey and Saunders to arrive, that would change things. But I'll believe Saunders is back when I see him. Call me Estragon.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#304128) #
and to show the trend...

APR: 121era- (26th), 120fip- (28th), 112xfip- (23rd)
MAY: 112era- (26th), 110fip- (26th), 106xfip- (23rd)
JUN: 80era- (3rd), 91fip- (9th), 99xfip- (16th)

nice to see the era leap way ahead of the peripherals last month but we probably can't expect that going forward...the 99xfip- shows a similar mediocre staff as in the first two months (minus some of the demoted worst performers), just with much better luck.

Elite Hit / Average Pitch makes for a pretty darn good team....but there's no need to settle for Average Pitch - not when we have a great depth of prospects to trade from.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#304129) #

It's cruel to put Colabello and Valencia in the same parenthesis pertaining to OF play. Colabello is downright Kempian (or Ramirezian), whereas Valencia has appeared to be quite serviceable defensively.

Call me Estragon.

Damn it! Now I want a croque madame with bearnaise.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#304131) #
Navarro's market value is unfortunately not high.  He's a helluva backup catcher at this point but Anthopoulos will be hard-pressed to get fair value for him. With all that in mind, the organization (GM and Manager) ought to be playing to win now.  That means that Navarro gets a start every 5 days or so as a backup catcher and more if Martin is unavailable.  Using him as a DH/cleanup hitter because he has been hot, and as a result starting him 13 games in a month, has nothing to do with necessity , and everything to do with managerial preference. Navarro's salary ought to have nothing to with it.  Gibbons' preference for playing the hot hand might be common enough among managers, but that doesn't make it the right thing to do. 

Gibbons is, I am sure, trying to put as many games into the W column as possible.  Over his managerial career, he's undoubtedly run into some bad luck, but for those of us who are in the Branch Rickey school on this one  (luck is the residue of design), that is only part of the story.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#304133) #
Personally, I want to see Smoak\Collabello in the lineup more so they know what kind of money to offer them in the off season.

We know Navarro is not coming back. What about Smoak\Collabello?
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#304134) #
Except Gibbons isn't using him because he's hot, but rather because he's on the roster making 5m with a track record of success. You seem obsessed recently with this hot hand nonsense, so allow me to point out that Navarro has hit .213/.291/.362 since his return and that his playing time has absolutely nothing to do with that.

This sounds a lot like when some people wanted RA Dickey removed from the rotation before June started. Players with larger salaries have track records, and you can't pull the rug out from underneath them because some fans think the equation has changed over a few weeks. Jose Reyes has not been playing well lately, but you're going to see him batting first in the order and playing SS regardless of how Ryan Goins looked in June.

The Blue Jays are 18-8 since Dioner Navarro came off the DL. Looks like the manager is doing a good job of putting up games in the W column.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#304136) #
I want to see Smoak\Collabello in the lineup more so they know what kind of money to offer them in the off season.

Money won't be an issue. Neither is a free agent. Smoak will be arbitration eligible for the first time while Colabello won't even be arb eligible.

[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#304137) #
Mike, you keep insisting on your ability to read Gibby's mind. Would love to know how you can be so certain of your accuracy in guessing his thinking and reasons. You say he is merely playing Navarro because he is the "hot hand". As i've argued before, it's more likely that Gibbons likes everything that Navarro has done for him over the past 15 or 16 months. By saying that Gibbons is just "playing the hot hand," you're demeaning his decision-making and failing to engage with broader reasons.
[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#304138) #
Repeatedly using Navarro's salary as a justification for his playing time in a season the team is trying to contend is strange.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#304139) #
yup.

this "hot hand" idea makes no sense.

smoak and cola are the hot hands, navarro is the one with the actual recent track record.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#304140) #
Remember how many fans were upset at Anthopoulos for failing to acquire Chase Headley at the trade deadline last year? According to a new report by Shi Davidi, the Jays had a chance to acquire Headley at the time, but the price would have been Sean Nolin and Kevin Pillar. Certainly this was the right decision for the long term, given Pillar's value in 2015 and Nolin's role in helping acquire Donaldson. The trade would have still perhaps been justifiable if Headley would have propelled the Jays into the playoffs last year, but it seems doubtful that he would have allowed the Jays to win the extra 5 games they needed to reach the final Wild Card slot last year.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#304141) #
Repeatedly ignoring that Navarro's salary is only a piece of a larger puzzle is even stranger.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#304142) #
If Gibbons likes what Navarro has done over the last 15/16 months as a designated hitter, that would be worse than riding a hot hand.  His offensive performance as a catcher is pretty good.  As a designated hitter, it is poor.  When you combine that with the necessity of playing Encarnacion at first base too often to accommodate it, it is a losing move.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#304146) #
the cliche narrative that likely applies best here is "not wanting a proven vet lose his spot due to injury".

but you can't have it both ways - if you think the hot hand approach is stupid, then you should be applauding gibbons for ignoring it here in his decision making.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#304147) #

China fan, that Davidi piece made me chuckle. Anthopoulos wants to have his cake and eat it too. He shrouds himself in secrecy when it comes to trade talks and FA acquisitions, but then the Sportsnet writer speculates that he knows which specific player AA is talking about when he says:

Floating stories through the owner of the team's website that you won't confirm about trades you don't make being the best ones while maintaining you can't comment on trade discussions seems to me to be nothing more than self-service, using Sportsnet to relay to fans that the big trade they are expecting may not happen because look at all the nice catches Kevin Pillar has made this year.

[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#304149) #

And for some reason I can't post the quote, so I'll type it manually:

We had to give up Pillar and Nolin, and the rental wasn't probably going to fit for us, there were some concerns, things like that...

[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#304150) #
Regarding Navarro: I like the idea of having a backup catcher that doesn't totally suck. And it's worthwhile getting him some playing time every now and again to keep his bat sharp, in case Martin suffers an injury.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#304151) #
An occasional back-to-back game for Navarro would be fine.  Thirteen starts in a month goes well beyond that.  It is a team game, and sometimes veterans have to accept a lesser role than they might have in another situation.  Navarro is a decent catcher and could hold down the starter role (perhaps 100-110 games a year) for another club.  On the other hand, playing a little less might lengthen his career by reducing overall wear on his knees. 
[ Reply to This ]
SK in NJ - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#304152) #
Playing Navarro as a back-up catcher is fine. Playing him at DH, which forces a banged up and poor defensive player like Edwin to play first, is not. He simply doesn't hit enough for that to be a worthwhile lineup configuration.

Smoak does not have a good track record offensively, but his strengths provide much higher upside (power/walks/defense) than Navarro's. Smoak is also a former top prospect who is finally out of Safeco and into a park more conducive to his style. In a platoon with Valencia, I think he provides way more value than Navarro as a DH does.

I think Gibbons is doing a good job getting the most out of waiver pick ups this season, but playing Navarro over Smoak is a reasonable thing to question. If anything, he should be DH'ing Martin more on days Navarro catches, that way he can keep Martin in the lineup while resting him on defense.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#304153) #
2012-2014:

Russell Martin .241/.345/.402
Justin Smoak .222/.304/.377
Dioner Navarro .284/.331/.429
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#304154) #
Everything I read concerning Encarnacion's shoulder injury was that it was affecting his swing primarily, and he's hit .296/.372/.568 since June started. If the shoulder is still hurting it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to give Eddie two weeks off right now so you can have him healthy for the stretch run instead of letting the injury linger any further.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#304157) #
Not going to post, because the info is on Fangraphs for anyone to see, but all 3 projection systems have Smoak with a greater wRC+ than Navarro for the rest of the season.
[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#304160) #
92-93, I never said it was your sole justification, but you've repeatedly referenced his $5 million salary as though that is a compelling part of the analysis about whether to give Navarro playing time instead of alternatives.

I fail to see why what Navarro earns has any bearing on that discussion. He's a free agent to be who isn't returning.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#304161) #
that is an entirely valid criticism.

accusing gibbons of HotHandism isn't.

personally, i'd rather see Smoak play. but i get why gibbons would give dioner more time than i'd like. part of it is that dioner has a better recent track record as a hitter, part of it is because he's one of the better hitters for average in a lineup surrounded by low avg / high obp/slg types, part of it is that everyone loves him, part of it is trade value, part of it is clutchitude. part of it is our lineup is so good it gives gibber the chance to get longer looks at guys in the short term.

I agree though that the reasons for playing Smoak likely outweigh those, though. Smoak projects as at least a similar hitter, and has a real shot here of having a legit non fluke breakout year for us and being good for a while, and he improves our D at 1B significantly while letting us rest EE too.

then again, smoak may well just turn into a pumpkin again, like he did last year and some prior years.



[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#304162) #
It bears on the discussion because you can't tell one thing to FAs when you sign them and then flip the script on them one year later as they are pending FAs and stop playing them, ruining their earning potential for their next contract. Word gets around the league fast, and you'll never even be able to sign the lower-tier, Dioner Navarros of the world. Toronto already has enough problems attracting FAs, they don't need to add to it.

If he's on the team, he's going to play more frequently than when Russell Martin needs a day off. It's as simple as that.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#304164) #
"And for some reason I can't post the quote, so I'll type it manually:"

I've had similar issues with cut and paste from some websites. It previews, but causes everything in the comment box to disappear.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#304165) #
For what it's worth, when Navarro was getting the cleanup DH gig a few weeks ago and objections were raised, the response was that his was the hot hand. Shifting sands. And as for the longer view, Navarro did have a big year in Wrigley in 2013.  He absolutely killed lefties at home that year (35 at-bats, 5 homers, 5 singles, 7 walks, 2 strikeouts) and that led to a line that is out of keeping with his career.  Smoak in 2012-14 was in Seattle, and suffered for it. 

A thoughtful manager (with the help of analysts if required) would have a good idea of the offensive ability of Smoak and Navarro from the left side taking into account 2012-15 offensive performance adjusting for park and the defensive implications.  It's not a close call, and it wasn't on June 1. 

[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#304166) #
That's exactly what happened, hypobole. When I would click Submit it would put the name of the thread in the message box.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#304167) #
"I've had similar issues with cut and paste from some websites. It previews, but causes everything in the comment box to disappear."

just make sure the box isn't empty when you click submit.

if it's empty, just copy and paste the previewed text back into the empty box and submit.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#304168) #
both zips and steamer projected near identical lines for smoak and navarro this year.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#304169) #
Mike, I agree with you. However I also agree that whatever promises were made to Navarro have to be to upheld.

However, if an actual promise of being the regular catcher was made, keeping him in Toronto after the Martin signing pretty well negated the promise. AA should have traded him (Zona for one did want him) even if the return wasn't as sufficiently strong as a deal without promises as the driving force.

[ Reply to This ]
Jevant - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#304173) #
Cola at 1B, Valencia in LF tonight.  EE DH.  Interesting that they do prefer Valencia in LF over Colabello, if both going to be in the field.
[ Reply to This ]
grjas - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#304174) #
"Navarro's market value is unfortunately not high. He's a helluva backup catcher at this point but Anthopoulos will be hard-pressed to get fair value for him."

I hope AA is at least considering options to salary dump him for prospects. If the Jays are as cash strapped as they contend for fiscal 2015, the extra cash- and prospects- could make the difference between a good and a very good pitching acquisition.

Losing a good back up catcher is of course risky, but a risk worth taking if it can help him make a trade for a better pitcher.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#304179) #
Navarro's 470 innings at C in 2013 were the most he had played at the position since 2009, so I doubt "regular catcher" was the promise, but I don't think he was signing up for a once-a-week type of role. I also think that when Martin was acquired Navarro was rather unhappy about it and had a discussion with AA who assured him the PA to earn himself another decent deal would be there if he's healthy, though that's entirely speculation.
[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#304181) #
I found Anthopoulos' comments re: keeping Pompey in NH interesting. I wonder if Anthopoulos isn't attempting to recapture Pompey's helium from last season in advance of a trade. Pompey is once again putting up elite numbers in the Eastern League comparable to the likes of top 15 prospects Sano, Buxton et al. at similar ages at levels. While I would prefer to see Pompey as a part of the second half answer to a pennant run, it also wouldn't shock me to see his inclusion in a package for that mystical ace, whether that is Cueto, Hamel, Gray or some as of yet unidentified starter currently floating in the aether.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#304186) #
both zips and steamer projected near identical lines for smoak and navarro this year.

That was true at the start of the year, and included performance from both sides of the plate.  Smoak hits better from the left; Navarro hits better from the right.  The problem, of course, is that Colabello is a better bet than either (at least with the bat) from the right side.  What the club needs most nights is the best bat it can find from the left side.  That would be Smoak. 

Incidentally, Colabello has been much better defensively at first base than in the outfield. He is not Keith Hernandez out there, but he holds his own.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#304192) #
Wanna learn the basics of sabermetrics for free over the summer? EdX has Sabermetrics 101 offered by Boston University beginning on July 7. 
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#304193) #
Very cool, thanks Mike!
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#304194) #
One final thought on Smoak. I know I've heard Bucky mention on multiple occasions that Jacoby has instructed Smoak to use his power and put the ball in the air instead of hitting ground balls.

Except Smoak hasn't. His 42.9 GB% is slightly up from last year and way up from his career low 34.8% in 2013.

His FB rate of 32.5% is the lowest of his career. It was 45.5% 2 years ago.

So why has he been successful? When he does hit a fly ball, it's going a long way. 298 hitters have 120 PA's this year. Of those 298, only 5 have had a higher % of their FB's go yard than Smoak's 28%. You might guess 2 of those 5, their surnames are Stanton and Harper.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#304195) #
Jacoby has instructed Smoak to use his power and put the ball in the air instead of hitting ground balls.

That's easier said than done. They fixed Bautista's approach by getting him to swing earlier, which is one thing, but when you have a swing that produces groundballs, you don't just start uppercutting. Maybe Smoak is trying to hit the lower half of the ball, that's a fine thing to practice in the cage, but a hard thing to do in a live game. We're not talking inches here.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#304196) #
If they are going for a starter, we might be approaching the point where Sanchez becomes the closer for the rest of the year.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#304197) #
Except Smoak was hitting 40% more fly balls 2 years ago than he is now, so it's not asking him to do anything he hasn't done before.

But you are right, easier said than done. It just surprised me that he's moving in the opposite direction. Maybe Jacoby should be telling him to hit the ball on the ground more. :)
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#304199) #
Szymborski ran ZIPS projections this morning for the AL East.

The good news is Toronto is 1st at 85-77.

The not-so-good news - Tampa is also at 85-77, Yankees, 85-77, Orioles 85-77.

At least Boston projects to finish 6 games out.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#304200) #
Little less excited about Boyd than I was a week ago.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#304201) #
Except Smoak was hitting 40% more fly balls 2 years ago than he is now, so it's not asking him to do anything he hasn't done before.

Right. Except he was getting regular at-bats then and is not now. It's hard to make small in games adjustments when you're not in game regularly. Still, he's showing power and a good eye. He's still doing pretty good.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#304202) #
Worse start in Blue Jays history?
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#304203) #
Worse start in Blue Jays history?

I can't think of any.

This is probably the worst start.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#304204) #

Little less excited about Boyd than I was a week ago.

It does give a not-so-friendly reminder of the difference between control and command. Until that last at bat when he was shell-shocked, Boyd was throwing strikes... too many, and too-hittable of ones.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#304205) #
Worse start in Blue Jays history?

Very likely. Game Score of 9 speaks for itself. A number of Jays starters have failed to record an out, but none of them were charged with 7 runs. Stieb in 1990 (against Boston) and Gott in 1983 both gave up 6 runs without recording an out.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#304206) #
There have been starts with lower Game Scores - Ricky Romero all by himself had three single digit game scores in 2013 - but at least one out was recorded...

Thiis looks like a project!
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#304207) #
Boomer, August 20, 1992, 4.1 IP, 13 ER, 97 pitches.  Still, he got 13 more outs than Boyd tonight.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#304208) #
Hopefully the idea wasn't to showcase Boyd for a trade.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#304209) #

Is it going to be one of those nights?

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#304210) #
Taking only an 8 run lead early against the Jays 2015 is always a mistake. 

Halfway back with lots of outs to play with...

[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#304212) #
As much as I've maligned Colabello's play in the outfield, I do like his play at first.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#304213) #
It's basically like being down 4-0 after 3 IP. Usually that results in a loss; sometimes it results in a win. I never like it when the Jays have the opposing SP on the ropes early and let him off, as they did in the second (they also gave Miley an easy time of it in the third).
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#304214) #
Huge break on the grounder booted by Bogaerts. Instead of none on, two out, the Jays have two on, none out, and the heart of the order up.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#304216) #
I do like his play at first.

Not tonight, I hope!
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#304217) #
That there is some pretty bad umpin'.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#304218) #
Bad call from New York.  Hanigan had blocked the path before he had the ball.  Valencia had to avoid him.  Whether he touched the plate wasn't really the point.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#304219) #
That is unreal. Instead of 8-5, 2 on, and 1 out. It's 8-4 with 2 outs.

Brutal.
[ Reply to This ]
Eephus - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#304220) #
And the award for worst call of the year goes to...

That call only makes sense if Valencia never touches the plate. But he was obviously never tagged by Hanigan. Even Miley backing up the play thought the tag was missed. Unbelievable.
[ Reply to This ]
christaylor - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#304221) #
Hm. I think MLB might need to make a rule tweek. I wonder if there's a mood in the Jays dugout to plunk Hannigan...
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#304222) #
The review umps in NYC probably thought, well, the home plate ump totally blew the call. So there was a basis to overturn his call. But the replay was inconclusive as to whether Valencia even touched home plate. And Hanigan eventually did tag Valencia before Valencia definitely touched home plate. So what do you do with that cluster*^$%? Call the runner out, apparently.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#304223) #
That is true, greenfrog.  But it was clear on the replay that Hanigan stuck out his leg to block the plate before he had the ball. If Valencia had taken the Pete Rose approach to this, he would have been clearly safe but that is what the rule is designed to avoid.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#304224) #
Smoak for Colabello maybe to face Ogando?
[ Reply to This ]
Four Seamer - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#304225) #
The video review worked exactly as it is intended to do: to protect the umpires. Any excuse to rule the evidence inconclusive will do.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#304226) #
That call only makes sense if Valencia never touches the plate.

The original call should have been no call at all (i.e., the batter is neither safe, not having touched the plate, nor out, not having been tagged). Then the ensuing scrambling could have decided the issue. And then Valencia could have legitimately been called out.

But that's predicated on Valencia not having touched the plate, which he seemed to do, and Valencia having had a clear path to the plate, which it seemed he didn't.

With calls overturnable, it now seems that what Miley did -- urge Hannigan to really make a tag despite erroneously having received credit for having already doing so -- will be all the more commonplace. Plays will carry on as if an ump's bad call never happened in the event it might well be overturned.

The number of cock-ups on this play was impressive. Wrong tag call (by umpire). Possible missed touching of the plate (by New York). Possible missed blocking of the plate (by umpire and New York).

Gibbons clearly tried to get himself thrown out, as a sign of just how pissed he was, and I don't blame him.

[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#304227) #
Wonder if Smoak starts at 1B tomorrow?
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#304228) #
From the replay review rules:


Example. A runner attempts to score on a play at the plate. The catcher misses the tag on the runner, and the runner fails to touch home plate, but the umpire calls a tag and the runner "out." The offensive manager challenges the call, and the Replay Official determines that the catcher missed the tag. The Replay Official shall disregard the failure of the runner to touch home plate, declare the runner "safe" and score the run.

So the run should have counted.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#304229) #
Good point about the possible blocking of the plate by Hanigan. I'm a bit hazy on how that rule is being interpreted on the ground by the umps and on review. I seem to recall some calls indicating that there is a bit of a gray area when it comes to how much catchers can block the plate at the moment (or in the moments just before) they receive the ball.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#304230) #
Nice one, BlueJayWay.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#304231) #

Not tonight, I hope!

I'll be hiding in a corner, not saying another word.

[ Reply to This ]
cruzin - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#304234) #
Wow nice research on replay review rules.

If Valencia doesn't have to touch the plate as result of an erroneous out from a phantom tag, I have to hear what's MLB's reason for the replay in NY upholding the out call.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#304235) #
For all the excitement the Jays have generated this year as a result of their big offense, they're going to be 42-39 after tonight's loss. It's not really all that impressive, although they've done OK considering the injuries, and they remain squarely in the playoff race.

The home losses against a relatively weak divisional rival are disappointing. The next month is going to be challenging for the team, and it would have been nice to bank a couple of extra wins and firmly entrench Boston in last place.
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#304236) #
At least it's not a one run loss....yet.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Thursday, July 02 2015 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#304237) #
Boyd sent down, Redman DFA'd.
[ Reply to This ]
Jonny German - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 07:41 AM EDT (#304238) #
It will be interesting to see what happens with the now open rotation slot. Lots of possibilities:

Jeff Francis - on schedule to pitch July 7, the next time the slot comes around

Daniel Norris - could pitch July 7 with one extra day of rest

Felix Doubront - could pitch July 8 on normal rest, which combined with one of the above would preserve the original idea of 3 lefthanders starting in the Chicago series (Buehrle gets July 6)

Randy Wolf - next scheduled start is July 5, so he could be pushed back to pitch in Chicago with a few days extra rest

Gibbons made a comment about wanting Norris to stay up the next time he's recalled. I'd be inclined to go against that and spot-start Norris on July 7. Then I'd have Doubront pitch the 8th and give him a chance to hold a spot at least until a trade is made.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#304239) #
I'd call up Doubront and have him pitch in Detroit tomorrow with the intention of leaving him in the rotation if he performs decently. I'd call up Jenkins for Redmond but I'd have Norris in the major league bullpen for an apprenticeship sooner rather than later.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#304240) #
Makes sense Mike Green.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#304244) #
It's been fun to watch Kevin Pillar develop.  A few years ago, I thought that he could hit .270/.300/.400 with good defence for a left-fielder and good baserunning ability.  At age 26, his career batting line is .266/.298/.391 (check!) but he's giving the club excellent defence in centerfield (surprise!!).  It all adds up to 3 fWAR/150 or 4 bWAR/150, i.e. the kind of player a championship team needs, rather than just a useful part. 
[ Reply to This ]
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#304246) #
I was going to make a similar comment regarding Pillar. With 81 games down, 81 to go, he's at 2.1 fWAR. Double that and you get a 4.2 WAR player -- All-Star territory. The three projection systems at FanGraphs project 1.0 WAR over the rest of the season, but even with that lower estimate, 3.1 WAR is a quality major leaguer. There have been a few nice surprises this year but Pillar has to be the best.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#304248) #
the comparison with devon white, in defense, offense, and offensive approach, is getting more interesting.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#304253) #
It will be interesting to see if June was just a hot month for Pillar or if he'll continue to add some hitting to go along with his stellar D.

He's upto 285/315/409 now for the season after a 365/380/531 June. 7 for 9 in July, FYI.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#304255) #
I think Pillar has excellent work ethic. Constantly learning and pushing his skills.

If he ended up the season with 12HR, 24 SB with a 285 avg, for a number 8 hitter. That would be very excellent.

I would like to see the OBP go up a bit. Other than that, I am impressed.

I think Castro is going to get called up again soon. They need another shutdown arm in the pen. I bet Gibbons is asking for him.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#304256) #
there's not much unsustainable going on there i don't think.

he's basically taken last year's line, but traded in some strikeouts for more contact.....which is what you'd expect based on his milb performance.

hitting .285 (with a slightly above average .322 babip thanks to speed) with a low walk rate (4.1%) and not much pop (.124iso) seems eminently reasonable for him.
[ Reply to This ]
Lylemcr - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#304257) #
BTW, he has the same # of SB as Gose
[ Reply to This ]
Shaker - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#304258) #
Re starting pitching options...just wondering if the name Mat Latos has been tossed about on Da Box?

Not that I think he's any kind of saviour, more that he will come cheap if we pay his remaining $4.5M salary.

Pretty sure he was an apple in AA's eye a few years back.  He's been injured often more recently (including in spring training) but has put up a nice June and of course was a top pitcher just a few years ago in a hitters park.  His road work this year has been strong and his ERA in June is 3.86

I wouldn't expect him to cost much talent and if we acquire him soon we could upgrade later if he flopped in the AL.  My sense is he could pitch quite well in half his starts (say ERA of 3.50) and quite poorly in the other half (say ERA of 5.50) but that the Jays offense would bail him out in some of his bad starts.  Could he go 8-4 with a 4.50 ERA in his 18 starts for us?  I think so.

Not only does the new SP presumably improve our bullpen, but word is the Marlins could move LHP Mike Dunn as well who's a useful reliever.  Would cost a bit more to get both of course and we may not need Dunn, but the overall expense to acquire a veteran flyer like Latos seems worth it.

Latos in 2014: 16GS 1.15 WHIP 6.5K/9  2.85K:BB 0.8 HR/9 ERA 3.25
Latos in 2015: 13GS 1.41 WHIP 7.9K/9  2.73K:BB 0.9 HR/9 ERA 5.27
Latos in June:  4GS  1.09 WHIP 8.4K/9  4.00K:BB 1.3HR/9  ERA 3.86
Latos as BJay: 18GS  1.35WHIP 6.7K/9  2.15K:BB 1.1HR/9 ERA 4.50

Would say Matt Boyd net you Mat Latos+ ?  If you're the Marlins I think you have to say yes.  If you are the Jays (and you're going for it) I think you have to say yes.


[ Reply to This ]
Dave Till - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#304259) #

It will be interesting to see what happens with the now open rotation slot.

As Casey Stengel once said about the New York Mets: this is an opportunity for the Youth Of America!

Pillar has been a pleasant surprise indeed. It's a long way from last year, when he was demoted after complaining about being lifted for a pinch-hitter.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#304262) #
The core of the Blue Jays 1991-93 was White, Alomar, Olerud and Carter.  It's not well known, but White actually led the club in both fWAR and bWAR during that time, edging out Alomar.  He was essentially a 6 WAR/150 (under both systems) each year. Pillar doesn't have White's power and isn't quite as great defensively (who is?), so it will be hard for him to reach that level.  If he's going to be an All-Star, he will have to hit .310 in his prime.  That is obviously possible in light of his minor league record, but it will be difficult. 
[ Reply to This ]
cruzin - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#304263) #
Pillar's batting line in the MILB was such that he could always hit and thought from day one, he could be that diamond in the rough. However, after seeing his lack of plate discipline in his previous auditions with the club, I started to have my doubts. He still waves at that outside pitch from time to time and it makes me cringe when he swings at pitch a good foot or more away from the plate but it's nice to see him hitting well at this level.

When Pompey stays up, do you keep Pillar in CF or move him to LF?
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#304264) #
I've been intrigued by Latos since he picked up velocity in his return from the DL for knee trouble. Well, that and the 11 k game didn't hurt. I've also liked Dunn, but with Cecil back in a set-up role, that's less of a fit.

In the end, though, if we're only going to acquire one starter, I would prefer someone who would go deeper into games. That's why Samardzija is at the top of my Non-Cueto and Non-Hamels (ie, my Tier 2) list. He's averaging 6.8 innings a game for arguably the worst fielding team in the league (competing with the Phillies and Padres, depending on your metric). The innings per start is also why I'm a bit down on Kazmir relative to the rest of the site. Of course, if we're going for multiple starters to shift Sanchez to the pen, then yeah, I think Latos would be a potentially good addition.
[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#304269) #
You keep Pillar in CF.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#304271) #
Samardzija would be a fine addition and Kazmir would be pretty good, but I'm not sold on Latos.  He's made 8 of his 13 starts at home, a favourable environment, and the NL East is a lot weaker than any of the AL divisions.
[ Reply to This ]
Spifficus - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#304274) #
I'm not sure if looking at his full year is the best way to go for Latos. He's looked quite different since returning from his knee injury. Before, he was averaging 90.7 on his fastball (about where he was last year). Since then, he's been averaging 92.3 (which is in his 2011-2013 range). There's been a corresponding uptick in innings, swinging strike rate, fip, and most other indicators as well.

I'm not saying he's on the level of the more established guys, but there's a better chance of buying something shiny than his year-long numbers imply. It's something that bears watching, anyway.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#304275) #
"....using Sportsnet to relay to fans that the big trade they are expecting may not happen because look at all the nice catches Kevin Pillar has made this year..."

This is a rather convoluted conspiracy theory.  One problem with the theory:  Shi Davidi is a respected and veteran reporter who worked for Canadian Press for many years and he is nobody's patsy.  He isn't just a puppet, used by the Jays to manipulate the fans.  In fact, I find the Sportsnet writers to be generally quite solid and independent in their analysis and not the mere "shills" that some people seem to think.  Another problem with the conspiracy theory:  Anthopoulos didn't mention Headley's name, and other media didn't report it.  Davidi dug up the name, from his own contacts.  A third problem:  Headley's name was buried deep in the story, and very few fans have picked up on it.  If it was an attempt to manipulate the fans into thinking that AA won't be doing any trades, it was a particularly inept effort, since it had so little impact.  A fourth problem:  why would the Jays be trying to convince their fans that a trade won't happen?  With several weeks to the trade deadline, I'm sure nobody knows if a trade will happen -- not even AA himself.  And a fifth problem:  AA himself has often said that he is trying to acquire a starting pitcher.  He said it's his top priority.  And this has been widely reported.  So it's pretty clear that he's not trying to dampen expectations of a trade -- he has often mentioned the possibility of a trade, which has clearly fueled the expectations of fans.  One obscure reference to Headley in a Sportsnet report is certainly not going to reverse those expectations, and I'm sure AA didn't think they would.
[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#304276) #
".....It's been fun to watch Kevin Pillar develop...."

On May 26, Pillar's OPS was .553 and everyone assumed he was a 4th outfielder at best.  In the 32 games since then, he's been on an incredible tear, with an OPS of .988, and there's no sign of a tail-off in his production. It could be just a hot streak, but he's had 125 plate appearances in that streak and it's beginning to look like a lot more than just a fluke.   It's quite possible that he has made the necessary adjustments to the majors.  It fits with his career progression through the minors:  adjusting progressively to each level and improving as he adjusts.  Kudos to Mike Green for spotting Pillar's potential at a relatively early stage in his career.  I'm sure there were other Bauxites, too, who were Pillar fans as he developed, but I do specifically remember Mike making the argument that Pillar had the potential to be a solid major-league starting outfielder, and it's beginning to look like he was right.  And if everything goes right, Pillar could be a stellar centre-fielder for years to come.  It's too early to be sure, but his ceilling seems higher than most of us had earlier assumed.


[ Reply to This ]
Shaker - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#304280) #
It's pretty clear that Samardzija and Kazmir are better pitchers than Latos, and that Hamels and Cueto are better than all 3 of them...but the question becomes:
Are you willing to send a Top 5 prosepct to get one of those first 2 pitchers?
or
2 of your Top 5 prospects to get one of the latter 2 pitchers?
or
Do you prefer to just give up a serviceable young arm to take a flyer on Latos?

[ Reply to This ]
JB21 - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#304281) #
Re: Pillar, I saw him play 1 game in Buffalo, and left the game thinking that there's no way he could be a quality major league CF. He literally almost killed himself while running full speed into the CF fence. He did not catch the ball and it looked to me like he forgot that there were OF fences. Funny how one game can leave you assuming one thing that was obviously way off. He has pleasantly surprised me in the field.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#304282) #
Are Cueto and Hamels going to require similar packages? I don't think so.

With Cueto, it's a pure rental. The package has to be better than the draft pick, but how much better? Also Cueto only has about $6 million left this year, the prospect package won't change much no matter how much/little Cinci is willing to eat. No team can't afford him, maybe Tampa, but I think even they could scrape up the $6 million or at worst give an extra/better prospect to have Cinci pick up some of the tab.

Hamels though is controllable for at least 3 more years. And Philly can afford to pay a little or maybe a lot of his salary; of course the more Philly pays, the better the prospect package required. Just my opinion, but Philly would prefer a deal where they pick up a sizeable chunk of his salary and get a far better package than anything Cinci could get for Cueto.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#304287) #
Hamels is probably not coming to Toronto no matter what. He might say otherwise, if only because you don't trade for a guy who doesn't care if he makes the playoffs, but he'd rather be somewhere else.

Cueto is a pure rental, that's true, but he's not being sold. He's being auctioned. The auction might start at a draft pick, but the end price depends on the other contenders.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#304288) #
I wouldn't be surprised if the hamels and cueto packages end up comparable, in which case i'd go with hamels, the guy with term.

I still think that package ends up being one A prospect (hoffman norris sanchez osuna pompey alford hutch travis) one B prospsct (pentecost castro harris urena tellez reidfoley) and a couple of depth C/D guys.

I don't think any of those guys will cost 2 gem prospects.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#304289) #
" but he'd rather be somewhere else"

what does this even mean?

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#304291) #
That means I still read in many places that he will not approve a trade to the Blue Jays even if he will say publicly that he will.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#304292) #
where would that be?
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#304294) #
In my baseball news agglomerator.

I'd be happy to be wrong, after all I remember the rumours about Buhrle not wanting to come to Ontario because of the anti-pit bull laws. I care about stats, not rumours, but I still want to keep the expectations in check. The guy might have a no-trade clause to Toronto for a reason.


[ Reply to This ]
China fan - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#304297) #
"....he will not approve a trade to the Blue Jays even if he will say publicly that he will...."

It's actually the opposite:  the Jays are on his no-trade list, but he is willing to waive it under the right conditions.  He said this just a few days ago.  Among the sources on this:  http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/06/27/cole-hamels-open-minded-on-potential-trade-to-blue-jays/

Of course nobody really knows what he will or will not do.  Quite possibly he would not approve a trade to the Jays, but we cannot say this with 100 per cent accuracy because we don't know for certain.  I don't think there is any reliable source on what Hamels is privately thinking.  We can only judge by his public statements, and then add whatever skepticism we want to add.  If someone claims to KNOW that he definitely will NOT approve a trade to the Jays, I will be very dubious of that claim, because it would require some telepathic knowledge of the secret inner workings of his brain. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Friday, July 03 2015 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#304303) #
i think it's a safe assumption that he'd use that no trade power to force us to guarantee that option year.
[ Reply to This ]
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox - June 29-July 2 | 210 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.