Sunday's start isn't TBA. The Jays have confirmed that Hutch is starting.

Scherzer watch (hey, he's pitching against the Phillies): three up, three down in the first.

Solid start to the series... get the first three guys on, and clear them all include yourself. I like it.

Scherzer watch: six up, six down.

They Jays gets the 3 Texas starters with the best record. They also miss the lefty. This is no fun.

With Pillar now raking and Travis back to health this lineup is a pitchers nightmare. They may get shut down occasionally if a good pitcher has all his pitches working, but no matter how good the opposing pitcher may be, they better minimize their mistakes, or they'll have a short night.

Scherzer watch: twelve up, twelve down.

That's fifteen...

Is there anyone more fun to watch than Pillar right now?  His defense is just amazing.  It's like having Devon White back.

Scherzer allows a hit. Darn!

Hey Magpie, this Scherzer guy wouldn't be the same one who's butt Pillar kicked twice a couple of weeks back?

Go figure!

Valencia takes another righty deep.

double digit runs again....ho-hum...
And Edwin seems to be heating up.

Add one front-of-rotation starter and this becomes one scary ballclub. I wonder if Stroman will make it back by September/October. You know he's doing everything in his power to make it back this year.

I thought Edwin was swinging the bat a little better in Tampa. He just looked more like the last few years. Now with a couple dingers today, maybe he's healthier now. If that's true, and replacing Goins' bat with Travis, you're gonna see some serious sh*t.

It's official.  Boyd starts tomorrow.

The pesky O's win again, keeping pace in the increasingly competitive AL East. Rays and BoSox currently tied 3-3.

Boy, you almost feel sorry for opposing pitchers now.  Pillar might be the worst hitter in the lineup now.  Heading into the game Reyes & PIllar were the only guys with a sub 100 OPS+ in the starting lineup.  Goins is the only bench guy with a sub 100 OPS+.  Pillar, Reyes & Goins are the only guys with 100+ PA with an OPS sub 700.  Sweet.  The weak spots are now SS and CF and backup IF for offense and that is how it should be.

No question AA has to chase pitching.  Where the heck would you improve on offense with Saunders coming back at some point and Navarro your backup CA (265/308/397).  Unless he gets the best in the majors at a position pitching is all that he can improve on but even there it is getting hard with Dickey & Hutchison the only starters sub 100 for ERA+?  The pen is about it.  A real closer and maybe another setup man.  Castro is throwing 99 in the minors now though and might be back by the All Star Game.  This team is looking very, very strong.

"It's official. Boyd starts tomorrow."

Carried forward from the Tampa thread...Occam's razor wins again, Jeff Blair and his conspiracy theories, not so much.

I'm excited to see Matt Boyd make his major league debut start. He's probably been the Jays' minor league pitcher of the year, including 12 starts for the Fisher Cats (only 39 hits allowed in 73.2 innings; 70/18 K/W) and 2 for Buffalo. There isn't much doubt in my mind that Dickey is the worst starter in the current rotation, assuming either Sanchez comes back healthy or Boyd lives up to the promise suggested by his gaudy AA stats this season. I think the Jays are an ace starter away from being a strong World Championship contender, but there is seemingly no chance of the brass pushing Dickey out of the rotation. Which means a new ace starter would create a logjam in the rotation.

I still think it would be worth it - perhaps going to a modified 6-man rotation (in the event of an acquisition) with everyone except Buerhle and the would-be new ace skipped once or twice as the season progresses.

"There isn't much doubt in my mind that Dickey is the worst starter in the current rotation"

I'm interested to hear your reasoning on Dickey being clearly worse than Hutchison. And given the complications of having a knuckleballer in the pen, and the political problems with sending an established veteran to the pen... could it be an idea to see what Hutch looks like as a reliever?

Only 1 game back, but still in 4th place.

Is there anyone more fun to watch than Pillar right now? His defense is just amazing. It's like having Devon White back.

What's interesting about Pillar versus White is that they get basically the same results with polar opposite approaches. White had such great speed and instincts that he never needed to dive for baseballs - he had an ability to calculate the exact amount of time and energy needed to arrive where the ball was going to land, and then could arrive there with a minimum of fuss.

Pillar isn't as gifted, but makes up for it with maximum effort - he launches himself at every baseball, and has more hang time than many basketball stars. (Who was it that wrote that Spiderman wears Kevin Pillar pyjamas to bed at night?) Pillar and the Jays are grateful that this year's turf is more forgiving than the green concrete blocks of years past - on the older turf, there's no way that Pillar could have done all that and not landed on the disabled list by now.

I agree that he is tremendous fun to watch - I can't think of any past Jays outfielder that has made so many highlight-film catches. It's been a remarkable season for him - he's gone from fourth-outfielder afterthought (the 2015 equivalent of Moises Sierra) to having taken absolute ownership of the centre field job.

I'm excited to see Matt Boyd make his major league debut start.

So am I.  An ace would be good, but you don't want to do what Beane did last summer and overpay. The market looks to me to be very tight.  Another possibility is to try to win the Big Red Machine way, with a strong bullpen supporting average starting pitching and a killer lineup.  I know that "strong bullpen" seems like an impossibility, but I envisage a pen in a month or so of Norris, Loup and Cecil from the left side and Delabar, Hendricks, Osuna and Sanchez from the right.  I see that pen as being as good as the BRM pen was.  Aesthetically, it's not my favourite pitching set-up but sometimes aesthetics takes a back-seat to functionality particularly if one has a neo-brutalist offence.

Colabello bats right and LInd left. They are both having good years. Are they pretty much equal?

Colobello is a faster runner and seems less injury prone. With a bit more practice might even be a usefull left fielder which Lind isn't anymore.

Thanks CeeBee. So we keep him. He is a very pleasant surprise.

One thing I just discovered about Colabello: his BABIP is an insanely high .443. He might just be extremely lucky. Or has he adjusted, and defenses haven't adjusted back?

It might be best to have a plan B available in case his luck runs out.

That's why they call him ColaBABIP.

BABIP...P Rose & another guy with little power. He played for Minnesota & LAA a long time ago. I forget his name but he was very good.

Not Wade Boggs.

I wonder if the Jays could convince the White Sox to part with Chris Sale.

Impossible? Hey, they managed to pry Donaldson away from the A's...

I love Baseball Reference - I can look so many things up!

Pete Rose's career BABIP was .319. It tended to be about 20 points higher than his batting average that season. When he was a good player, his season bests were .368 and .366 in 1968 and 1969 (he won the batting title both years). When he returned to Cincinnati in 1984, his BABIP that year was .393, and he hit .365; the next season, his comparable numbers were .282 and .264. I would guess that his '68 and '69 totals reflect skill, but his 1984 "resurgence" was luck.

Rod Carew's BABIP tended to bounce between .350 and .400, which I think influenced whether he had an insanely great average (.388 in 1977; BABIP .408) or just really good (.307 in 1971; BABIP .352). Since I would contend that his ability remained relatively constant through these years, it is interesting that he experienced swings of as much as 80 points in batting average.

I don't really have a point to make, other than that I think that Colabello has been at least a bit lucky. His doubles, home runs, walks, and strikeouts are comparable to his past, but his average is way way up. I'm a Jays fan, so I'm hoping that his improvement is legitimate - maybe he's made some adjustments? Either way, his batting has resulted in real wins, even if they are lucky wins, and the Jays need all the luck they can get.

There is a projected Joey Gallo sighting in CF for today's game. And to think that I get nervous watching Colabello in LF.

Oh, and reports that Fielder will be backing him up are as of yet unconfirmed.

BABIP...P Rose & another guy with little power. He played for Minnesota & LAA a long time ago. I forget his name but he was very good.

Pete Rose's career BABIP was .319 (AVG was .303). Perhaps the other player you are referring to is Rod Carew. His BABIP was .359 (AVG .328). And for interest's sake, Wade Boggs' BABIP was .344 (AVG .328).

None of Rose, Carew and Boggs struck out a lot or hit many many homeruns, so their BABIP was not far from their AVG.

Colabello, this season, has a .443 BABIP and a .343 AVG. If we lower his BABIP to Carew's career mark (still pretty generous since Carew was a fast runner and Cola ain't), that costs him 10 singles and his slash would be 286/332/457. That's a useful player, but probably not one you force into the outfield if you have any alternatives.

Had I known Dave was running with this assignment I would have foregone doing the research as well!

his slash would be 286/332/457

Poor form to quote yourself, I know. ZiPS and Steamer see Colabello as not quite Carewish when it comes to BABIP, and forecast slash lines for the balance of the season of 254/308/428 and 258/314/444.

That sounds like a platoon 1B or DH.

At first, I wasn't sure about Boyd being called up. But, maybe he could he be a spark like Stroman was?

Also, the pen will be filled with good young arms. Also, don't forget that Stroman could be back by the end of the year.

If the prices are so high, (Like Hoffman and Norris for Hamels), then I would take my chances with the youth. That would be hard, because you know with this hitting, an ace would shine.

There is a projected Joey Gallo sighting in CF

Boyd will face 5 lefty bats today.

While we're on the topic of luck, I think Hutchison has actually been pitching okay this year but has been a little unlucky. League average BABIP against is .294 but Hutchison's sits at .339. Meanwhile his strikeout to walk ratio is 3.71 and he's giving up home runs at an average pace. As expected, his ERA (5.33) is significantly higher than his FIP (3.93). A 3.93 ERA isn't great but we probably wouldn't be talking about him going to the bullpen if that's how he was pitching. The other side of the coin is Estrada. He's had some good BABIP luck at .243, and his ERA (3.45) sits a little below his FIP (3.83). Of course Estrada's two latest starts skew his numbers somewhat.

would you be thinking of Rod Carew?

"That would be hard, because you know with this hitting, an ace would shine."

Yet the last 2 times the Blue Jays traded for an ACE, it hasn't worked out.

1) Josh Johnson was the key to the whole Marlins trade, yet was the one that wound up providing the lowest return.
2) Dickey, while most knew that it was unlikely that Dickey was going to get another Cy Young, the cost in prospects was that of and ACE, but that hasn't panned out.

Young pitching can break your heart no doubt, but trading for an ACE, one for a rental or for one on the wrong side of 30 can be just as risky. The prospect cost is going to hurt no matter what, I'd prefer to take my chances on the youngsters, because you have multiple shots as getting the one that hits the target.

I've good news about the tiny, but exceedingly well put together, Mr Travis... In last nights game he took strike three - and wan't happy - he thought the pitch was a ball. He was right - but just. The pitch was a ball - but it was a pitch our pitcher had been getting a strike called on too. It was quite close - actually just barely a ball...

I was delighted. Wee Devon is a "Natural" - a "Natural born hitter." The guy really knows the strike zone and this bodes very well for the youngster going forward. I think we've got ourselves a shorter version of Jeff Kent. This kid will be a star for many years!

Also interesting, is that for 5 to 10 years of Devon's career he's be hitting (and for POWER) while fielding next to (presently): 6' 1", 170 pound 19 year old SS Richard Urena, - a VERY SERIOUS SS prospect  - who already has 12 homers in Low-A. Picture; great defense, great hitting and great power (for a SS - 2ND base combo).

My, oh my, oh my...

Here's another way of looking at it.  Players have a higher BABIP earlier in their careers usually.  So, I did a search looking for any player who in his first 4 seasons with at least 1500 PAs had a BABIP of .370 or higher.  The answer: none. I thought that Babe Ruth might have qualified, if I had used a different set of 4 years, but the answer to that was also no.  I then checked single season BABIP over .400 with 502 PAs.  The names in the lively ball era were Rod Carew, Luke Appling in his big year and Roberto Clemente 1967 (at age 32). Clemente from age 29 to 36 had BABIPs of  .377, .365, .343, .403, .312, .372, .392 and .368. Clemente (as a hitter) would be Colabello's goal. That's obviously a very, very high standard, but at least they are somewhat similar hitters.

It is not a good idea to put Colabello in left-field (especially facing a RH pitcher) behind Boyd, who is a flyball pitcher. 

Congrats to Matt Boyd on pitching a scoreless first.

It's difficult to project a player like Colabello - his career path has been so much different from the norm. He has very little MLB data for a player his age, and a good chunk what little there is might be tainted by his playing through injury.

It's obvious he's terrible in the outfield, but if 1B/DH are occupied and he keeps hitting, I say let Cola be Cola in left field. Pray Donaldson and Pillar can cover for him enough for his D to not entirely wipe out any value he adds with the bat.

He is seriously awful on D though, small sample sizes be damned. Nobody is that bad because of noise or statistical deviation. Those numbers are almost bleak enough to wonder if Encarnacion or even Smoak might do less damage out there...

Shudder.

And why did Buck Martinez go straight to the majors from A ball at age 20? Because he was a Rule 5 pick. The first year Royals had to keep him all year or send him back to the Phillies.

I love the way Devon Travis plays the game.

That was a pretty decent outing from Boyd.  I like his pacing. 

FG Batted Ball data 150+ PA's. Cola in very high (top 10) with his 28% LD rate.

4 others with similar LD/GB/FB #'s. Kipnis and Soler among the 5, but they hit the ball harder than the other 3. That leaves Headley and Brock Holt. Headley has a .305 BABIP, but pulls far more than Holt or Cola.

That leaves Holt and his .380 BABIP as the closest comp to Cola using those 3 criteria, this year at least.

That was a very solid debut by Boyd. One thing though - he shouldn't be raked over the coals for the botched throw on the Moreland DP grounder, but someone should talk to him about staying with the play. Instead of stomping around and scowling after the throwing error, he should've been backing up Reyes on Travis's throw to second. Fundamentals, just in case, youneverknow, etc.

Maybe one of the coaches could give him the Thomas Wayne "Why do we fall down?" speech, or something.

Not a bad outing overall from Boyd. Hung one out over the plate on the 2nd HR. But a couple of good takeaways from the game, 6.2IP - 7Ks and 0BB are definitely positives.

And if the bats were up to hitting, the 4ER wouldn't have been an issue normally.

Uglyone's been proven right:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/cole-hamels-open-to-trade-to-any-team.html

Shocking news. No Santana comeback after all.

Solid first major league start.  He had a quality start 6 IP 3 runs but was left out for one inning too many but I prefer that to pulling too soon.  Got to see what the kid can handle.  I'd be happy if they kept him in the rotation for a bit, lets see what he does next.  2016 could be a kiddie rotation with Stroman-Hutchison-Sanchez-Norris-Boyd as Buehrle is a free agent as is Estrada and Dicky is in an option year.  My gut says that won't happen though.  Odds are Dickey stays with Norris/Boyd fighting for that final slot but if Boyd had a year like Stroman did last year then things get very interesting, especially if Buehrle indicates he'd like another year at a reasonable dollar amount.

Buehrle IMO will get a QO from the Jays. If he accepts, then he makes less money compared to this year.
If Marcum can be traded for a good prospect then IMO Dickey probably can as well. So I would pick up the option. Dickey does make more than Marcum would make if you can figure out the variables.

Some variables:- Marcum - not as durable. Dickey - more durable... 200 innings per year. 5 years has also past.

Too many young pitchers in the rotation sounds like gambling to me. Counting Hutchison there are probably 7 young pitchers who are reasonable candidates. When the season ends we will know a lot more about them.

This is a very strong team...but it has flaws, mainly the pen. The same offense comes back next year. When the regular season ends we will know if this team really is good. 92 wins gets my vote. 2016 is the last year of EE & Bautista so I do not gamble.

How much weaker does this team get without Buehrle & Reyes? A lot of money is saved without them. This money will definitely get us talent. It does not have to be FAs either. We can trade for long term talent... Josh Donaldson.

Jose Reyes is on the books for at least 2 more seasons after this, for 22mm per.

While I don't want to get too homerish about the Jays system, I do have to admit that it's very exciting to see the early returns on drafting and development under Anthopoulos. Pitching development in particular is starting to look like an organizational strength, and if the system can produce an impact position player or two along the way, the Jays might start getting included in those conversations about teams with player evaluation and development systems that can seemingly do no wrong.

For too much youth in a rotation look to the top of the AL East - the Rays haven't started anyone over the age of 27 this year. 

No question the pitching depth is looking really good for 2017-2020 right now.  With luck the international free agents will be a boost too when that starts up on July 2nd with Vlad Jr. and hopefully a few more.

"For too much youth in a rotation look to the top of the AL East - the Rays haven't started anyone over the age of 27 this year. "

That's a really uninformative way of looking at it. All of the Rays starters* this year had already pitched at least 200 innings at the AAA or MLB level. Which is to say they're all more seasoned than Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez, Matt Boyd, Scott Copeland, and even Marcus Stroman.

*Reliever Steve Geltz has been the quote-unquote starter in 2 games games, pitching 2 innings each time. He's 27 years old and had 150 high-level innings coming into this season.

AAA doesn't mean anything. What matters is the inning limit on each starter. Would not be good to have 5 starters who can't make their last 10 starts. Stroman won't make great strides this year. 

Depends what one is asking about.  Youth can be measured as experience or as age.  Age is a lot quicker to check.  I don't count a 35 year old who has just reached the majors as a 'youth'.

Was wondering who the were the best worst and worst best hitters in the league.

Best worst hitter per FG is Kevin Pillar, who has 1.7 WAR thus far with only a 91 wRC+. Bogaerts of Boston is the only other sub 100 wRC+ player with at least 1.7 WAR (99/1.7).

Worst best hitter is no contest - Hanley Ramirez is at 120 wRC+ but has been worth -0.3 WAR. Interestingly, their other big FA signee, Sandoval, has been worth -0.6 WAR despite his 97 wRC+.

That makes Boston the clear cut example of why free agents can be dangerous to sign.  They have those 2 for a lot more years and a lot more money.  I'm sure Boston would like a redo on those deals last winter.

within a week of the sox signing those two for "nothing but money", we traded some very good youth for Donaldson.

sometimes it's better to give up good young assets.

Looking at the Jays and Ex-Jays one wonders about the pitching AA kept vs the ones he dumped.
Dumped...

• Henderson Alvarez: age 25, 60 ERA+ in 22 1/3 IP for Miami on DL after a 127 ERA+ over 2 seasons previous in 289 2/3 IP.  We all figured he'd collapse at some point... is this it? Part of the Miami trade
• Anthony DeSclafani age 25, 115 ERA+ in 88 2/3 IP for Cincinnati, 92 ERA+ lifetime, FIP of 3.73 vs 3.71 this year. also part of the Miami trade
• Justin Nicolino age 23, 97 ERA+ in 11 IP for Miami, his first ML action, low K totals though in majors and minors suggest an Alvarez risk.  again part of that Miami trade
• Sam Dyson age 27, 98 ERA+ in 34 IP for Miami, 96 lifetime ERA+ in 87 2/3 IP lost on waivers.
• Noah Syndergaard age 22 105 ERA+ in 52 2/3 IP for NYM, his first ML action 2.76 FIP - this one hurts, part of the Dickey trade
• Asher Wojciechowski age 26 55 ERA+ in 16 IP for Houston, his only ML action, part of the JA Happ trade

Syndergaard is the only one that really jumps out as 'oh crap, wish he was here'.  DeSclafani has done well this year but if he was here he might not have been in the majors yet. 

Here...

• Drew Hutchison age 24, 73 ERA+ in 82 2/3 IP he teases but is having a poor year despite a 7-1 record (Jack Morris?)
• Aaron Sanchez age 22 110 ERA+ in 66 IP,  but a 5.18 FIP so a bit of fear as to what to expect going forward, currently on DL
  
• Daniel Norris age 22 102 ERA+ in 23 1/3 IP but a 5.03 FIP so same as Sanchez, currently in AAA
• Matt Boyd age 24 76 ERA+ in 6 2/3 IP, 6.85 FIP due to the HR issues but no walks is nice.
• Roberto Osuna age 20 187 ERA+ in 34 1/3 IP, way earlier than I expected him to be useful but not complaining.
• Miguel Castro age 20 91 ERA+ in 12 1/3 IP, liek Osuna up much earlier than anyone expected now in A ball rehabbing.
• 9 other guys under 30 but over 25 have been used this year.  Not to mention kids in the minors.

I like what AA kept over what he dumped with Syndegaard the only exception.

low K totals though in majors and minors suggest an Alvarez risk

Today, cloudy with a chance of Alvarez. I'd take that over meatballs.

It is a logical fallacy to say that the Red Sox signed two free agents and they are performing poorly and the Blue Jays traded good, young assets for Donaldson so it is a good idea to trade good young assets instead of signing free agents. I know that uglyone included the all important "sometimes."
Sometimes trading assets is a good idea...especially when those assets fail to have successful long term careers. And especially when the acquired, established stars get the team over the top. But if the team does not get over the top and those assets have long careers as Aces or terrific major league players...well, then trading prospects is not such a good idea. Both routes can lead to success and both routes can blow up in your face. It's a crapshoot. Acquiring Buerhle, Dickey, Reyes and even Donaldson has not yet got the Jays to the playoffs and maybe this might be the year. Boy, a lot of talent left town for this "might" be the year.

In a vacuum, the Hanley signing wasn't bad - basically getting this years Encarnacion production for nothing but money and a non-1st round draft pick.

Back in 2013 I remember saying AA didn't seem to realize the term "defensive indifference" shouldn't be a basis for roster construction. Boston (and for that matter the Padres and White Sox) are suffering the consequences of ignoring the adage "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it".

"Sometimes trading assets is a good idea...especially when those assets fail to have successful long term careers."

This is a common meme among sports fans, but I strongly disagree.

Once a team has traded a player, what difference does it make to the team that traded him whether he turns into a star, role player or bust?

In fact the opposite may be true. Let's say Cinci has 2 seemingly strong and equal offers on the table for Cueto. However, one teams traded prospects have a history of becoming above average major leaguers, the other teams traded prospects have constantly busted. Which team has a better chance of getting Cueto?

"In fact the opposite may be true. Let's say Cinci has 2 seemingly strong and equal offers on the table for Cueto. However, one teams traded prospects have a history of becoming above average major leaguers, the other teams traded prospects have constantly busted. Which team has a better chance of getting Cueto?"

I disagree with this. A team will have scouts and make trades upon the input provided by the acquiring team's scouts. When the Jays made the trades, the other clubs' scout must have thought highly of the traded prospects thus making the trade. I think past deals, involving prospects, has no relevance on the current deal. If prospects are offered from 2 teams, the team will take the prospects who their scouts feel are better.

finch, that's why I said, "strong and EQUAL". If Cinci's scouts think one group of prospects are better, then obviously the offers are not EQUAL.

It's never equal. And the past history of a team plays no bearing whatsoever. Where the team play (same league or same division) is a discriminant. So is the relation between general managers. And a bunch of other stuff we're not party to.

It's pretty obvious that a team will hang on to a prospect if they think he will become an all-star or a franchise player. Also, if a team has depth at one position it's a good idea to trade the extra to fill a hole. Pitching is a bit different because half the players are pitchers, but you shouldn't keep more than 6 starting pitchers if they can

I was following the home broadcast at Citfield and the announcer mentioned that a few years back the Jays went all out and acquired several free agents. Of course, that's just how he remembered the Miami trade. That's why I still don't like that trade: prospects for guys that would have only cost second/third round picks the year before.

"It's never equal. And the past history of a team plays no bearing whatsoever."

You're making pronouncements with zero basis in fact to further an argument. whatever.

If Hutch is Jack Morris, I will take that. :)

He seems to be feast or famine sometimes.

I have a feeling the Jays are about to bust this rookie up soon. He seems to be missing the zone. He is lucky Martin didn't take that pitch deep.

You're making pronouncements with zero basis in fact to further an argument. whatever.

I'm just applying logic. What you're suggesting looks an awful lot like astrology.
What if the stats revealed that players born in August usually outperform those born in May?
Can I discard that without making pronouncement with zero basis in fact? I think I can.

I have a feeling the Jays are about to bust this rookie up soon.

I think he's ran out of innings. He'll probably be pulled at the first sign of trouble now.

It is so good to have Travis back in the lineup. (not that they needed it) :)

Buck and Pat are such homers.

It is not a good time to run for Reyes. They were starting to get to the rookie. Why give him a free out?

The Jays have been very aggressive on hits to the OF this year (which has paid many dividends), and this was another circumstance of that. It took a very well executed play by Martin to get him. Sometimes baserunners do the right thing and are still thrown out.

I like there aggressiveness. The rookie had just walked a bunch of people. There was no reason to be aggressive with 1 out (and Bautista up and EE on deck).

Why did Gibby remove Schultz, his sinker looked great!

Hypobole's making a good point. If we word it this way - that, if anything, trading prospects that prove successful should help the team in future trades -- maybe there'd be less disagreement. But don't get bogged down in that detail, anyway -- his main point was that it shouldn't much matter to the trading team what becomes of the prospects once they're gone, which is an interesting way to think of it.

Well, that worked out nicely.  Osuna is a heck of a 20 year old.  Delabar is back to his peak form,  and Schultz is doing pretty good for a waiver claim. Loup had a good start (leaving bases loaded) but is hardly ideal.

El Terminador

Jays have gone 7-5 in their last 12 one run games...

M. Cabrera homered in the White Sox-Tigers game. He has now tied Ryan Goins with 2.

Weird, the system just ate my last comment. It displayed fine in preview. Testing...

Of course that keeps M Cabrera 2 HR ahead of his replacement Saunders.  But also 4 behind the guy who has played LF the most (Colabello) and tied with the guy who took over DH (Navarro).

I don't love Navarro getting all this DH time. I would love to see more of Smoak and Colabello\Carrera. I know they are doing to increase his trade value. Either trade him or put the best bats in the lineup.

It always amazes me how wondrous of a sport baseball is. Consider LHP Steven Matz, Mets offensive saviour (?!). On top of his 6 innings of 2 run ball (to this point), he's 3 for 3 with a double and 4 RBIs. That's 3 of the 7 mets hits, and as many hits as he had allowed through 6 (before he let up two hits to start the 7th).

Jeff Francoeur with the defensive play of the day:

The runner went to third, scored on a sac fly, and the Phillies lost 3-2. Oops.

In Frenchy's defense, his HR and RBI single accounted for all the offense..

we should probably refer to this person as Melky Cabrera... there's another M Cabrera out there as well.

there's another M Cabrera out there as well

That was kind of the joke.

Jeff Francoeur with the defensive play of the day

Even though he is one of Ruin Tomorrow's more recent acquisitions, he is the perfect embodiment of the haplessness that is the entire Phillies organization. You wonder if Maikel Franco won't soon assume Cole Hamels' posture and agree, or perhaps beg, to be traded to ANYONE.

That was kind of the joke.

Opps, I didn't get it. My bad!

It was very kind of the Red Sox to set up their rotation R/L/R/L for this week's series.  It allows Gibbons to get plenty of work for everybody while getting the best of his bench.

Estrada has had Navarro catching for his last 2 fine outings, and with a day game following on Canada Day, it does make sense to keep that going. 

This Little League HR Correa hit yesterday brought back some not-so-sweet memories of a Jays outfielder a few years back.(yeah, I want you to guess).

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=350628118

Neither did I.  Then when I looked ours up I saw the stats of the other M Cabrera and thought 'wow, great year' for a moment.  Nope, Melky is hitting 255/297/314 for a 75 OPS+ while pulling in $13 ml this year and $14 next and $15 the year after that.  Wow did AA dodge a bullet there.  BWAR of 0.0 this year.  Meanwhile Colabello had an OPS+ nearly double that (146) with 3 times the HR.  makes the ML minimum and is under team control until 2020.

he is the perfect embodiment of the haplessness that is the entire Phillies organization.

Could getting well performed Triple-A batters or pitchers for cash and promoting them to Phillies help that team perform ? AAA players alone usually cost cash only.

Excellent week of work for the Jays.  I'm still psyched about the Tampa series win.

Big opportunity this week...let's win a couple series here.

Come on Jays! All star break is coming up. It would be great to be in first place to start the second half

The AL East is a dog race...

We opened 2015 with a 126 million payroll (it was 137 million in 14, 119 million in 13). We've ONLY five actual "serious" contracts. Reyes 22 million (then two more 22 millions). Dickey 12 million (12 million club optin next year - I say we let him walk), Bautista 14 milliom (14 million club option next year), EE 10 million (10 million option next year), Martin 7 miillion (15 million next year then THREE years of 20 million),  Buehrle 19 million - expires after this year - I'd like to re-sign him at a lower number if possible....

SO...we will have Dickey's 12 + Navarro's 5 + Izuris' 3 + some of Buehrle's (if we keep him) OR + 19 if we don't. SO - NOW   12 + 5 +3 = 20. 20 - 8 (Martin's increase) gives us 12 million NEW MONEY in 16 - IF - Buehrle's gone we've 31 million IF we get back to 125 million - IF we get back to 137 (2014's level) we'd have 43 million. I suspect we'll (ex-Buehrle) have a 2016 payroll of 130 million - giving AA a total of 36 million NEW money to play with in 2016.

SO - WTF does that actually mean in who we can AFFORD TO TRADE FOR going into the July trading period? Fu*ked if I know...

Anyone got any ideas???

I've exploded my mind just doing these calculations - (someone please double check them - (apparently long term over use of Scottish fluids can lead to cognitive impairment - not that I'd notice...)

ANytime I'm wondering about Jays payroll I go to Cot's Contracts - 2015-20 payroll obligations - very useful. 

• Martin & Reyes are the only guys signed for 2017 and beyond. 
• $42.6 mil committed for 2016 right now, that includes buyouts for Bautista, Dickey, Encarnacion, who won't be bought out.  So add $32 mil for those 3 (difference between buyout or keeping) and you're up to $74.6 mil.
• Free agents are Buehrle & Navarro & Estrada,
  
• Wasted money on Izturis, Romero both coming off the books.
• Arbitration year 1: Tolleson, Delabar, Hutchison, Loup, Kawasaki
  
• Arbitration year 2: Donaldson, Valencia
• Arbitration year 3: Saunders, Cecil, Smoak
• Arbitration year 4: Thole

Those arbitrations are the big variable.  Some are in line for big raises, some for small ones, some will be released.  The Jays have roughly $50 mil to spend depending on those 11 players the only killers are Donaldson, and maybe Valencia.

One thing of note at B-R is how it shows Donaldson up to 4.1 WAR thus far.  That is better than the best the Jays had 3 times (77-79).  He is on pace to have 8.2 or so WAR which would be better than all but Clemens 2 great years (8.2 and his insane 12.1 which was pre-PED based on what has been alleged, the claims are he started late that season and used them to help get that 8.2...part of why I always wondered about that whole thing as the timelines are nutty) and Hentgen's Cy year (8.5).

The best season ever by a Blue Jay position player was likely Olerud's 1993.  Donaldson has a decent chance to surpass it. 

Colabello at first base and Goins in left-field against Buchholz tonight.  Why?

When the opposing manager sets thing up perfectly for you, it's important to take advantage.  These are the wrong answers...

Very strange.  What does Justin Smoak have to do to get a start?

Colabello could safely have two starts this series at first base with the platoon advantage.  You could give Goins a start at shortstop on Wednesday afternoon (the 9th game in a row on turf and a day game after a night game).  It's not that hard.

"Colabello at first base and Goins in left-field against Buchholz tonight. Why?"

It's about the head-to-head matchups!

Goins is 9-for-19 lifetime against Buchholz, including 3-for-6 this year, good for an 1.105 OPS. Colabello 4 of 9 for an .889.

Meanwhile Smoak has 1 hit in 6 PA, with 4 strikeouts and Carrera is 0-for-6 PA, 4 strikeouts.

I think I can follow Gibbons as far as putting Goins in the lineup based on the above, but not at the expense of Carrera a.k.a. a legitimate outfielder. Gibbons should have taken this as a nice opportunity to give Reyes a day off. Reyes is a modest 8 of 29 with 4 walks against Buchholz, a .708 OPS.

Sure, Goins for Reyes tonight would be fine if you attach some weight to the batter/pitcher matchup.  It's not that big a deal whether you do it tonight or Wednesday.  Colabello has come to the plate 9 times against Buchholz, hasn't walked or hit an extra-base hit, has struck out once, and has a .500 BABIP.  Justin Smoak did have a bad day against Buchholz on June 13, 2015 and I guess that's what Gibbons is thinking of.  It's awfully slim evidence.  He is playing against the house and these things ultimately come back to bite.

Am I the only one who sees a lot of Rajai Davis in Carrera i.e. someone who seems like they should be a better OF than they are in reality?

Just took a look at the FG fielding stats for this year. On a per inning basis, Carrera has been worse than Colabello in left by DRS, and only slightly better by UZR. Both are bad by either measure.

On a happier note, Dalton Pompey has been tearing it up ever since he was sent down to AA. I really hope the plan is to have him back in Toronto as the regular left fielder after the All-Star break, or sooner if a trade happens and makes the roster more flexible.

But lack of flexibility is where it's at right now, with the defensively challenged 4-fecta of Encarnacion, Smoak, Collabello, and Valencia (and management making it even tighter by insisting on lots of DH time for Navarro). If these are your options for making room for a legitimate 4th outfielder, which do you choose?

1) Send Colabello to AAA
2) Trade Smoak for a C-level prospect
3) Trade Valencia for a D-level prospect
4) None of the above, keep the status quo

I think I'd go with 3). He's played well this year but Valencia really doesn't do much for this club - they've got lefty-mashing very well covered without him.

Mind the sample sizes, hypobole.  Carrera has been a positive corner outfielder this year according to UZR and a very poor one according to DRS.  Over his career, he's a modestly below average defensive corner outfielder (if you take a DRS/UZR average) and an average defensive centerfielder.  Colabello is in a whole other league of awful with the glove in the outfield. 

1) Send Colabello to AAA
2) Trade Smoak for a C-level prospect
3) Trade Valencia for a D-level prospect
4) None of the above, keep the status quo

I'm sure many won't like this idea but personally I would go with option 5 -- trade Encarnacion for some pitching help.  I love the guy and he's great and he's starting to heat up, but all that aside the Jays have good options when he's gone (especially if Pompey is back) and we really could use some pitching help. 

Valencia is the back-up third baseman, and an acceptable right-handed hitting left-fielder. I'd be happy with Pompey for Carrera, and a sharp exchange about the undesirability of Navarro DHing any more often than once a month. 

Valencia gets work with some starts against LHP in left-field and backing up Donaldson.  Colabello gets work platooning with Smoak and additional work when Edwin needs rest (or is injured). 

Mike, one could argue Colabello is SSS also.

The reason that we don't argue with Cola's #'s is that we expected to see poor outfield play and do see poor outfield play. No disagreement.

But here's why I compared Carrera to Rajai. A lot of fans (including myself) expected to see good, or at least average, outfield play from Rajai and it took much longer to realize he really was somewhere between not good and bad.

In fact, the only reason I looked up Carrera #'s is because he hasn't impressed me at all in the field, even though he is a real OF.

It's true that Colabello has a small sample size in the outfield over his career.  Over his career, he's -18 over 550 innings according to both DRS and UZR (Greg Luzinski was about -15/150 according to TZ, i.e. about 1/2 as bad).  I am sure that he would be a little better than that if you gave him 2 seasons in the outfield, but I am also pretty sure that he would have worse numbers than Luzinski. 

Mike, as I said, there is no disagreement. Cola is a bad OF.

But my point is that Carrera, to me at least, has not looked much better. Has he looked better than Cola? Yeah. Better than Rajai? Nope.

Brings up a good question... which ex-Jays would make the current Jays team at this point?  IE: Who would you like back right now?
Rajai Davis: 118 OPS+ 14-3 SB-CS.  He'd be nice in place of Carrera
Hechavarria : 96 OPS+ top flight defense instead of Goins...doubt he'd replace Reyes
I'm sure others could do better digging than me.

Fun one: Cano, who we all would've loved to get last winter has a 81 OPS+ at age 32 - the deadly age for 2B.  and is going to get $24 mil a year until 2023.

Carrera has not passed the eye test thus far in 2015. He lunges oddly at balls at the wrong times, and he very nearly cost the Blue Jays a win on Sunday with his lackadaisical approach to the leadoff double in the 9th inning. If Gibbons wants to play some batter vs. pitcher matchups to try and keep Goins (who has pieced together some decent at bats recently) going, there's nothing wrong with that. And until Colabello rips off a couple of weeks of futility and poor at bats similar to Juan Francisco last year, Gibbons is going to keep going back to that well.

"Just took a look at the FG fielding stats for this year. On a per inning basis, Carrera has been worse than Colabello in left by DRS, and only slightly better by UZR. Both are bad by either measure."

given how little difference there is between the corner OF spots, and given how we need all the sample size we can get for defensive stats, myself i like to combine the two corner spot stats:

Cola: 332in, -12drs, -10.7uzr (career: 533in, -19drs, -18.4uzr)
Zeke: 264in, -8drs, +1.1uzr (career: 612in, -9drs, +0.1uzr)

so carrera does look much better than cola out there, and closer to average than awful. and i'm not surprised that uzr likes carrera more because imo uzr does a better job valuing range.