Some people work very hard
But still they never get it right
Well I'm beginning to see the light
We're roughly at the halfway point of the 2015 season, and so what better opportunity is there to look at the various storylines around the league thus far? You don't think there's a better opportunity? Me too! Let's begin...
Mike Moustakas' Batting Average and The Unusual Kansas City Offense
We all know now that batting average paints an incomplete picture of a player's offensive ability. Call it the Ben Revere Principle. With that in mind, what Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas has done so far in 2015 is rather interesting. Consider these:
2011 -- .263/.309/.367
2012 -- .242/.296/.412
2013 -- .233/.287/.364
2014 -- .212/.271/.361
2015 -- .297/.353/.427
One of these things is not like the other!
All right, I get it. He started off supernova in April (.356 in 102 PA) but since then he's been around his normal production level, right? Call it the Juan Francisco Principle. So let's just move on and...
May -- .282/.326/.435
June -- .299/.346/.412
Damnit.
All right, clearly this a case of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) gone wild. A bunch of singles finding holes, helped by that hot month right? Call it the Chris Colabello Principle. Looking at Moustakas' career BABIP (.268) compared with this year (.315) that is a pretty remarkable difference. So he has definitely benefited from some luck, particularly in April when it was all the way at .377. However, there is something else with Moustakas this season that is also significant. Take a look at his batted ball profile:
2015: Pull% (36%) - Cent% (31.9%) - Oppo% (31.5%)
Career: Pull% (44.8%) - Cent% (32%) - Oppo% (23%)
(as of July 16th, according to FanGraphs)
So it seems Moustakas (a considerable pull hitter coming into 2015) has made some kind of adjustment to hit more balls into left-field. This hasn't affected his power all that much (ISO slugging of .130 compared with .149 in 2014) despite that he's now hitting more ground balls (43.9% versus career 37.7%) than ever before. I don't think long term that he's a .300 hitter, but he has obviously made a huge stride forward this year.
Speaking of Kansas City, as a team their offense has been right around league average in terms of runs scored. This is strange because first, the Royals have only hit 67 home runs this season, fourth worst in MLB (ahead of only the White Sox, the Phillies and Braves, all very bad offensive teams). In addition to that, the Royals are dead last in all of baseball in drawing walks (183). The average MLB team has walked 250 times thus far, and of the teams that have walked fewer than that, only Baltimore, San Framcisco and KC have an adjusted team OPS+ of 100 or higher. So how in the world of blue and gold do these Royals score runs?
One advantage is a high team batting average. Kansas City is batting .274 as a team, second in MLB behind the Tigers. Which whatever it is, is a handy thing to have. This leads into their considerable ability to put balls in play. The Royals have the fewest number of batter strikeouts (5) in all of baseball, and aren't even close to the second fewest team (the Red Sox) who have 539.
Todd Frazier
I swear I was going to write about The Toddfather before his awesome HR Derby win. Seriously! Please believe me...
Anyway, Frazier has been the Reds best player in 2015. He'd been a consistently above average player for multiple seasons coming into 2015, but this year he has exploded. His career batting line is .262/.327/.474, and this year he's producing a .284/.337/.585. One of those is drastically different, drastically! The trick to Frazier's success has indeed been extra base damage: he already has 25 homers in 374 PA (career high is 29 in 660) and he has 26 doubles (leading the NL) while his career high is 29 with over 200 more appearances at the plate. Combine that with the fact that he's a plus defender at third base (a notch below Donaldson/Longoria, two notches below Machado/Arenado) and you've got a marvelous ballplayer.
And no, he ain't going anywhere... this year.
Toast of Texas
When I wrote about the AL West in my season preview, I talked about both the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers. I described the Astros as a young strikeout-homer happy bunch that was probably still a few years away, while the Rangers were a fringey squad that could hang in a race if everything went right. So I was partially correct, which I'll take gladly when you consider I wrote Seattle was going to take the division. Ah memories. Well it certainly can't be argued that the Astros have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. As of July 5th they had the most wins in the American League (48) and led the AL West by four over the Angels (they've since fallen a bit and now trail the Angels by half a game). The home run or bust approach has been effective in Houston: they lead MLB in dingers and strikeouts and are fourth in runs in total runs scored.
The pitching has been the difference though. Their bullpen has been airtight thanks to the additions of Neshek and Gregerson while Will Harris has appeared out of somewhere to post video game numbers. Combine that with a pair of tough lefties in Sipp and Thatcher, and only one of Houston's top five relievers has an ERA over three (Gregerson at 3.34). Only one has a WHIP over one (Thatcher at 1.607). But the real story here is Dallas Keuchel, who I'll say again has a name that was born to pitch in Texas. Keuchel has built upon an impressive breakout in 2014 (12-9, 2.93 and a Gold Glove) with an even better 2015, posting a 11-4, 2.23, thanks to a stingy 104 hits allowed in 137.1 innings. You can make a case he's been the best non Chris Sale lefty in the American League, and even then? Maybe?
The Rangers meanwhile have been better than I expected, considering that Beltre, Leonys Martin and Andrus have been pretty rotten. As an aside, that Andrus contract is really something. Can you imagine if the Blue Jays were giving fifteen million a year until 2022 to a fast Ryan Goins? I'd probably never read another Toronto blog again. (Except this one, of course. Yall are awesome).
Anyhow, there must be some smokey double rubbed BBQ magic going on in Texas. The Rangers starting pitching has actually been quite reliable, despite any projection system/whimsy prediction expecting otherwise. Yovani Gallardo has transitioned to the AL extremely well (just ask the Blue Jays) and they've gotten decent innings out of Chi Chi Gonzalez, Nick Martinez, Wandy Rodriguez and Colby Lewis (remember him?). That being said, this is a mediocre looking team at best, and they got demolished in their last three series before the break (the Angels outscored them by 25 runs in a three game series). I'm lacking about as much optimism as I was before the season, but at least the return of the Prince has been a good story.
The Twin Dilemma
Here's a case of "How is this working exactly?" Minnesota has an offense based around one above average hitter (Brian Dozier, who has been really good) and a trio of slightly above average guys (Torii Hunter, Plouffe and Mauer). Every other hitter they have is between the "Blech" and "Oh Dear Gawd No" level on the scale of production. Their pitching is equally worthy of a great big "Huh?" with staff ace Phil Hughes continuing his 19th century-like ability to limit walks, but not limiting as many of the other ways to reach base. Kyle Gibson has been fairly good, while Mike Pelfrey, Trevor May and Tommy Milone have been consumed innings at steady unspectacular rates. Considering all that, these guys shouldn't be bad or anything. They've fallen back to reality a bit after a 30-19 start (19-21 since) but it's July and they're a game snug in a playoff spot, after four straight years of losing 90+ games. What could possibly explain this?
Of course. Paul Molitor. It's so simple! Clearly he's found a way to ignite his talented team to play better. That's what a HoF former player turned manager will do, don't ya know! Instant clubhouse respect! (By the way, normally this would be full-sarcasm, but we're talking about Paul freakin' Molitor here. Let's go with half-sarcasm...)
Boston
Heh heh heh...
Wait... blast, it's still too early to enjoy this one. A hot couple weeks in this division and they're right in it. Damn it all.
The Ordinary Nats
I suppose expectations here were just a little high. Strasburg, Scherzer, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Fister. A fifteen game winner in Tanner Roark forced to the bullpen. Certainly, this looked like the deepest starting rotation in recent memory. Well, one law of the Universe is that Things Happen. Max Scherzer has been insanely good and Zimmermann has battled well, but Strasburg has been hurt/ineffective as has Fister, while Gio Gonzalez has been more hittable than usual (9.5 hits per 9 in 2015 versus 7.7 career as a National) and is striking out fewer people.
The real problem for America's capital city baseball team though have been injuries, mostly to the position players. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth have been hurt for the majority of the season and performed pretty horribly when they weren't. Anthony Rendon and Denard Span have also missed significant time. This has pressed Washington's depth so far that they've given Dan Uggla considerable time at second base, which sort of explains itself.
And yet, despite all that, they're in first place and should win this thing when you consider the competition. The Phillies are fifty shades of terrible, the young Marlins have hit a roadblock and the Braves (scoring more runs than I possibly imagined) have been tangoing with .500 all year long. Only the NY Mets (are my favourite squadron) perhaps pose a challenge thanks to their insane amount of starting pitching. Could be a good race. Also, Bryce Harper is having one hellava first half. So Washington has that going for them.
The P Wing Gems
If you had made a bet that Kevin Pillar might be contending for a gold glove as we reached the all-star break, I would've believed you. I also would've believed that MLB had approved a bizarre rule change wherein any centerfielder for a Canadian team had to man the entire outfield by himself, meaning he would have to field every single ball hit more than 120 feet. Pillar would be awarded the gold glove by the league just out of pity. Which when you consider the Carreras and Colabellos that have played on either side of him this year, maybe isn't so bizarre.
Reprises!
A-Rod
If there's one thing his first half has taught us, it's that Rodriguez is not (and never was) the kind of player to take anything for granted. He must have spent his time off working hard to get himself into shape for the long grind of a baseball season, and the results are obvious. It's difficult to trust the process with this guy, but either way he is an undeniably special talent.
Kipper Kipnis
Cleveland's two bagger is a very fine ballplayer. His one bad season (2014) sticks out as a fluke amidst a career of excellent production, and Kipnis' 2015 has been nothing short of superb. Imagine if you had a second baseman who was batting over .320, was fine-very good defensively, drew walks and displayed consistent doubles power. That sounds like an MVP candidate, and Kipnis has to be considered an outside one to this point.
Bigfoot
I was worried the ball he took off his face last September might affect him, even a little bit. It's great that it hasn't, because nobody hits a baseball the way Giancarlo Stanton does. It's like watching a golfer tee off and drive one onto the green sometimes. He's great.
That's all I got. I'm sure I've forgotten someone or something...
But still they never get it right
Well I'm beginning to see the light
We're roughly at the halfway point of the 2015 season, and so what better opportunity is there to look at the various storylines around the league thus far? You don't think there's a better opportunity? Me too! Let's begin...
Mike Moustakas' Batting Average and The Unusual Kansas City Offense
We all know now that batting average paints an incomplete picture of a player's offensive ability. Call it the Ben Revere Principle. With that in mind, what Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas has done so far in 2015 is rather interesting. Consider these:
2011 -- .263/.309/.367
2012 -- .242/.296/.412
2013 -- .233/.287/.364
2014 -- .212/.271/.361
2015 -- .297/.353/.427
One of these things is not like the other!
All right, I get it. He started off supernova in April (.356 in 102 PA) but since then he's been around his normal production level, right? Call it the Juan Francisco Principle. So let's just move on and...
May -- .282/.326/.435
June -- .299/.346/.412
Damnit.
All right, clearly this a case of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) gone wild. A bunch of singles finding holes, helped by that hot month right? Call it the Chris Colabello Principle. Looking at Moustakas' career BABIP (.268) compared with this year (.315) that is a pretty remarkable difference. So he has definitely benefited from some luck, particularly in April when it was all the way at .377. However, there is something else with Moustakas this season that is also significant. Take a look at his batted ball profile:
2015: Pull% (36%) - Cent% (31.9%) - Oppo% (31.5%)
Career: Pull% (44.8%) - Cent% (32%) - Oppo% (23%)
(as of July 16th, according to FanGraphs)
So it seems Moustakas (a considerable pull hitter coming into 2015) has made some kind of adjustment to hit more balls into left-field. This hasn't affected his power all that much (ISO slugging of .130 compared with .149 in 2014) despite that he's now hitting more ground balls (43.9% versus career 37.7%) than ever before. I don't think long term that he's a .300 hitter, but he has obviously made a huge stride forward this year.
Speaking of Kansas City, as a team their offense has been right around league average in terms of runs scored. This is strange because first, the Royals have only hit 67 home runs this season, fourth worst in MLB (ahead of only the White Sox, the Phillies and Braves, all very bad offensive teams). In addition to that, the Royals are dead last in all of baseball in drawing walks (183). The average MLB team has walked 250 times thus far, and of the teams that have walked fewer than that, only Baltimore, San Framcisco and KC have an adjusted team OPS+ of 100 or higher. So how in the world of blue and gold do these Royals score runs?
One advantage is a high team batting average. Kansas City is batting .274 as a team, second in MLB behind the Tigers. Which whatever it is, is a handy thing to have. This leads into their considerable ability to put balls in play. The Royals have the fewest number of batter strikeouts (5) in all of baseball, and aren't even close to the second fewest team (the Red Sox) who have 539.
Todd Frazier
I swear I was going to write about The Toddfather before his awesome HR Derby win. Seriously! Please believe me...
Anyway, Frazier has been the Reds best player in 2015. He'd been a consistently above average player for multiple seasons coming into 2015, but this year he has exploded. His career batting line is .262/.327/.474, and this year he's producing a .284/.337/.585. One of those is drastically different, drastically! The trick to Frazier's success has indeed been extra base damage: he already has 25 homers in 374 PA (career high is 29 in 660) and he has 26 doubles (leading the NL) while his career high is 29 with over 200 more appearances at the plate. Combine that with the fact that he's a plus defender at third base (a notch below Donaldson/Longoria, two notches below Machado/Arenado) and you've got a marvelous ballplayer.
And no, he ain't going anywhere... this year.
Toast of Texas
When I wrote about the AL West in my season preview, I talked about both the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers. I described the Astros as a young strikeout-homer happy bunch that was probably still a few years away, while the Rangers were a fringey squad that could hang in a race if everything went right. So I was partially correct, which I'll take gladly when you consider I wrote Seattle was going to take the division. Ah memories. Well it certainly can't be argued that the Astros have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. As of July 5th they had the most wins in the American League (48) and led the AL West by four over the Angels (they've since fallen a bit and now trail the Angels by half a game). The home run or bust approach has been effective in Houston: they lead MLB in dingers and strikeouts and are fourth in runs in total runs scored.
The pitching has been the difference though. Their bullpen has been airtight thanks to the additions of Neshek and Gregerson while Will Harris has appeared out of somewhere to post video game numbers. Combine that with a pair of tough lefties in Sipp and Thatcher, and only one of Houston's top five relievers has an ERA over three (Gregerson at 3.34). Only one has a WHIP over one (Thatcher at 1.607). But the real story here is Dallas Keuchel, who I'll say again has a name that was born to pitch in Texas. Keuchel has built upon an impressive breakout in 2014 (12-9, 2.93 and a Gold Glove) with an even better 2015, posting a 11-4, 2.23, thanks to a stingy 104 hits allowed in 137.1 innings. You can make a case he's been the best non Chris Sale lefty in the American League, and even then? Maybe?
The Rangers meanwhile have been better than I expected, considering that Beltre, Leonys Martin and Andrus have been pretty rotten. As an aside, that Andrus contract is really something. Can you imagine if the Blue Jays were giving fifteen million a year until 2022 to a fast Ryan Goins? I'd probably never read another Toronto blog again. (Except this one, of course. Yall are awesome).
Anyhow, there must be some smokey double rubbed BBQ magic going on in Texas. The Rangers starting pitching has actually been quite reliable, despite any projection system/whimsy prediction expecting otherwise. Yovani Gallardo has transitioned to the AL extremely well (just ask the Blue Jays) and they've gotten decent innings out of Chi Chi Gonzalez, Nick Martinez, Wandy Rodriguez and Colby Lewis (remember him?). That being said, this is a mediocre looking team at best, and they got demolished in their last three series before the break (the Angels outscored them by 25 runs in a three game series). I'm lacking about as much optimism as I was before the season, but at least the return of the Prince has been a good story.
The Twin Dilemma
Here's a case of "How is this working exactly?" Minnesota has an offense based around one above average hitter (Brian Dozier, who has been really good) and a trio of slightly above average guys (Torii Hunter, Plouffe and Mauer). Every other hitter they have is between the "Blech" and "Oh Dear Gawd No" level on the scale of production. Their pitching is equally worthy of a great big "Huh?" with staff ace Phil Hughes continuing his 19th century-like ability to limit walks, but not limiting as many of the other ways to reach base. Kyle Gibson has been fairly good, while Mike Pelfrey, Trevor May and Tommy Milone have been consumed innings at steady unspectacular rates. Considering all that, these guys shouldn't be bad or anything. They've fallen back to reality a bit after a 30-19 start (19-21 since) but it's July and they're a game snug in a playoff spot, after four straight years of losing 90+ games. What could possibly explain this?
Of course. Paul Molitor. It's so simple! Clearly he's found a way to ignite his talented team to play better. That's what a HoF former player turned manager will do, don't ya know! Instant clubhouse respect! (By the way, normally this would be full-sarcasm, but we're talking about Paul freakin' Molitor here. Let's go with half-sarcasm...)
Boston
Heh heh heh...
Wait... blast, it's still too early to enjoy this one. A hot couple weeks in this division and they're right in it. Damn it all.
The Ordinary Nats
I suppose expectations here were just a little high. Strasburg, Scherzer, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Fister. A fifteen game winner in Tanner Roark forced to the bullpen. Certainly, this looked like the deepest starting rotation in recent memory. Well, one law of the Universe is that Things Happen. Max Scherzer has been insanely good and Zimmermann has battled well, but Strasburg has been hurt/ineffective as has Fister, while Gio Gonzalez has been more hittable than usual (9.5 hits per 9 in 2015 versus 7.7 career as a National) and is striking out fewer people.
The real problem for America's capital city baseball team though have been injuries, mostly to the position players. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth have been hurt for the majority of the season and performed pretty horribly when they weren't. Anthony Rendon and Denard Span have also missed significant time. This has pressed Washington's depth so far that they've given Dan Uggla considerable time at second base, which sort of explains itself.
And yet, despite all that, they're in first place and should win this thing when you consider the competition. The Phillies are fifty shades of terrible, the young Marlins have hit a roadblock and the Braves (scoring more runs than I possibly imagined) have been tangoing with .500 all year long. Only the NY Mets (are my favourite squadron) perhaps pose a challenge thanks to their insane amount of starting pitching. Could be a good race. Also, Bryce Harper is having one hellava first half. So Washington has that going for them.
The P Wing Gems
If you had made a bet that Kevin Pillar might be contending for a gold glove as we reached the all-star break, I would've believed you. I also would've believed that MLB had approved a bizarre rule change wherein any centerfielder for a Canadian team had to man the entire outfield by himself, meaning he would have to field every single ball hit more than 120 feet. Pillar would be awarded the gold glove by the league just out of pity. Which when you consider the Carreras and Colabellos that have played on either side of him this year, maybe isn't so bizarre.
Reprises!
A-Rod
If there's one thing his first half has taught us, it's that Rodriguez is not (and never was) the kind of player to take anything for granted. He must have spent his time off working hard to get himself into shape for the long grind of a baseball season, and the results are obvious. It's difficult to trust the process with this guy, but either way he is an undeniably special talent.
Kipper Kipnis
Cleveland's two bagger is a very fine ballplayer. His one bad season (2014) sticks out as a fluke amidst a career of excellent production, and Kipnis' 2015 has been nothing short of superb. Imagine if you had a second baseman who was batting over .320, was fine-very good defensively, drew walks and displayed consistent doubles power. That sounds like an MVP candidate, and Kipnis has to be considered an outside one to this point.
Bigfoot
I was worried the ball he took off his face last September might affect him, even a little bit. It's great that it hasn't, because nobody hits a baseball the way Giancarlo Stanton does. It's like watching a golfer tee off and drive one onto the green sometimes. He's great.
That's all I got. I'm sure I've forgotten someone or something...
