So, in theory, if we sweep the Rays, we could be tied for 1st, come Thursday??

Mind you, I'd be ecstatic with 2/3 in Tampa..

Very big series. We're behind the Rays and Yankees by 3 in the Loss. In fact we're behind everyone in the loss except the Red Sox. A series we need to win.

1/3 wins seems to be the usual outcome for the Jays against a good Rays team in Tropicana, with a chance of 0/3 or 2/3 wins. The fact that Archer is pitching makes things tougher for the Jays, as does the fact that the Jays are a bit beat up and their bullpen has been overworked recently.

Hopefully they don't get swept.

Yesterday was the first time in 6 days that a Rays SP took the ball into the 6th inning, so the Rays bullpen is a lot more "overworked" than Toronto's.

Phil Coke has elected free agency rather than report to Buffalo. End of an era.

Frustrating that whenever we seem to go to the Trop, we are down a few men.
Nice to see Navarro hitting the ball hard, but I have a bad feeling the Rays are going to capitalize on his poor defense tonight.

On the other hand we're playing a team that has David DeJesus batting cleanup.

There's another that Reyes seemed to not see properly.  I wonder if he's got a vision issue. 

Mr Redmond? You're needed.

I think Jeter had similar vision issues. At least looking left, anyway.

Jeter's issue was a slow first step to his left.  It apparently had something to do with hip mobility.  In Reyes' case, he takes a first step quickly enough but then stops instead of continuing.  He said that he thought that Kawasaki might have had a play on the ball on Saturday- but it was clearly to the left of the bag.

He can still hit left-handed though.

I do love a perfectly executed relay.

An outfield relay from Kawasaki?  It worked, I guess. 

He can still hit left-handed though.

Yeah, because he's looking right. :)

Now, this is a showcase.

Okay, point for Gibbons batting Navarro cleanup. Must have had his tea leaves read.

Navarro entered the game with 2 XBH. He's now up to 4. So far.

Is it just my imagination or is there weather-related something or other in Tampa every year that the Jays visit? Is the whole town poorly wired, or just the stadium?

The team is on pace to score 897 runs, which would be a franchise record (they scored 894 runs in 2003; the top three are all in the 1999-2003 window.)

I have no idea how Gibbons does this.  How does he know that Navarro is about to start hitting?  There's absolutely nothing in Navarro's hitting statistics, this year or even last year, to justify giving him the clean-up slot in the lineup.  Yet Gibby puts him there and he immediately hits a double and an HR in two ABs.  

What have the Blue Jays done to so anger the looper gods?

Braden Looper threw 4.2 lifetime innings against the Jays with a 7.71 ERA.

How does [Gibbons] know that Navarro is about to start hitting?

1. He didn't know. Got lucky.

2. He didn't know, but he wanted a LH bat to break up the run of RH hitters.

3. He didn't know, but he liked what he'd seen from Navarro in BP recently. All managers know they need to look at the numbers. Nevertheless, every manager first believes the evidence of his eyes.

The team is on pace to score 897 runs, which would be a franchise record (they scored 894 runs in 2003)

And for context, the league average in 2003 was 4.86. This year it is 4.23. In 2003, the Jays were 14% better than league average. This year they are 30% better.

"....he liked what he'd seen from Navarro in BP recently...."

Also perhaps what he saw from Navarro in the late innings yesterday, when he almost hit a grand slam that missed by inches. 

But he can't like what he's seen from Navarro defensively.  Five stolen bases by the Rays so far tonight.

Five stolen bases by the Rays so far tonight.

Well, it is Drew Hutchison. His many virtues notwithstanding, Drew couldn't hold a baserunner with a lasso. (I know I used the line before, just can't think of a better one!)

Also perhaps what he saw from Navarro in the late innings yesterday, when he almost hit a grand slam that missed by inches.

I think that was Saturday's game, CF.

Hutchison hasn't done much of a job holding runners tonight. Still, 3 runs in 5 innings has to be counted a minor success after the first two innings.

Yesterday was the first time in 6 days that a Rays SP took the ball into the 6th inning

Seeing as the Rays got 7 IP from their SP yesterday and the Jays got 1.1 IP from theirs (in a gruelling game that lasted almost four hours, and in which every Jays RP was used except for Osuna, who had pitched the previous two games), I'm going to guess that the Rays' pen is currently more rested than the Jays pen is.

And for context, the league average in 2003 was 4.86. This year it is 4.23.

And of course that 4.23 is inflated by the Jays offensive performance - the league average is 4.13 otherwise. This is in fact one of the lowest scoring years for the AL since Toronto came into the league. The only seasons the Jays have played in that had less scoring were 1978 (4.20), 1981 (4.07) and 2014 (4.18).

The highest scoring team of all-time (1931 Yankees - 1067 runs, 6.88 per game) outscored the league by 33%.

They finished a distant second, 13.5 behind the A's.

Those 1931 Yankees were just silly. Lou Gehrig scored 163 runs and drove in 185. Which is quite a lot. He also hit .341/.446/.662 with an OPS+ of 194 - and none of those insane numbers were the best on his own team. (They had this fat, old outfielder...)

Aaron Loup will be buying Redmond dinner in the very near future me thinks. If Rene Rivera had managed to score after a leadoff walk, and after the hitters had just put up four runs, Loup may have been DFA'd on the spot.

And immediately claimed by the Rays...

28 pitches, that should be it for Redmond in this series. Does he stick around?

The term overworked when referring to a bullpen typically means a larger period of games than yesterday's. Before yesterday's brief respite, the Rays bullpen had been used a lot more than the Jays', and Toronto has just called up two new arms. Boxberger had thrown in 3 straight games, Gomes in 4 of the last 5, and Geltz in 2 straight games. Yesterday's game marked 3 straight for Cedeno, and a 3rd appearance in 5 days for Jepsen. Tampa's bullpen is gassed right now, but hey, I guess they can go back to Nick Franklin (their SS) for the 2nd time in a week.

It seems obvious to me that Navarro would be the cleanup hitter when Gibbons is rolling out this lineup. Last year's clutchitude continues to go a long way in Gibby's mind, and really, who else did you want in there vs. a RHP? Colabello or Valencia? Gibbons clearly thinks that if there's an important AB late in the game he has more trust in Navarro to do a job than those two, and I'm with him. Navarro's small sample size of stats this year matter little in the equation. That he almost mashed a massive grand slam the other day and the GM likely wants to trade him for bullpen help can't hurt either; it's easier to haggle for value when he appears valuable to your team.

There are lies, damned lies, and "the 2015 Blue Jays bullpen will be just fine."

The Bullpen is so... sigh...
Is 8 runs enough for this bullpen?

Moving on from the oh-so-exciting debate of which team's bullpen is less rested, I see the Phillies are beating the Yankees 10-6…good to see. Interestingly, Utley is 0-4 and now hitting .179/.257/.275 on the season (-1.1 WAR even before tonight's game). I'm guessing the idea that Philly fans could never countenance trading him (and his $15m annual salary) away without receiving an outsize return is starting to lose some currency.

Sweep averted!

Love Osuna's stuff, but I can't imagine he'll be ready by Wednesday with a noon start. The Jays are in the hands of Everyone Else for the rest of the series.

Man his fastball looked good tonight. Lot of rays shaking their heads

I was happy to see Osuna given a shot to finish the game off. If someone is on you keep him in, don't play bullpen roulette unless you have to.  I suspect Redmond is going back down and Jenkins up after today just so they Jays have as many arms available as possible. 

As always the Rays draw flies to their games... just 10, 324 for a team in first place.  Wonder what will happen if/when this club goes back to the Devil Rays days of last place finishes.

Nice win for the Jays, coming off a couple of losses and in an environment that has been tough for them in the past. Gibbons's decision to rest Martin and Donaldson looks pretty smart in retrospect, as those players should be fresh for a tough matchup tomorrow. The Jays are right in the thick of a tight AL East race, with only 2.5 games separating the top four teams.

It would be great if the Jays could take at least one of the next two games.

If Gibbons didn't have a drinking problem before the season I sure hope no-one judges him too harshly if one surfaces. I do not know how anyone is supposed to manage a team when the only reliever that can apparently be trusted is a 20 year old that was rehabbing his TJ injury in the FSL last season. Luckily for Gibbons that 20 year old throws 97-99 and is capable of appearances like tonight where his he induces 11 swinging strikes in 33 pitches.

Great win. The vaunted Rays pitching looked pretty ordinary tonight. How the hell are they in first place with that lineup?

It is not inconceivable to think that with a decent bullpen, the Jays could be 19-1 in their last 20 games.

Again. What a strange, strange, season it's been so far. The excruciating bullpen meltdowns have tempered what has otherwise been the most engaged I've ever been with the team. 

That should read "the most positively engaged"

With the melody of Gilligan's Island in mind, "A two inning save, a two inning save". Despite inexplicably leaving in the clownshow defence for the 7th inning, in order apparently to save Colabello's at bat for the ninth (which never came); despite his normal tendency to make the unnecessary pitching change which so often blows the game in order to keep someone fresh for tomorrow presumably; despite his previous poor usage of Hendricks and Osuna in blowout games or games they trailed in the 8th; Gibbons finally did the 'anti-Gibbons', left Osuna in to finish the game over two innings, and won an important game!

It's hard to win with a mediocre bullpen. It's hard to win with a less than mediocre manager. But tonight, the manager avoided at least one of his major tendencies and they won. It's a good team that can do that.

I think Gibby is a decent enough manager.

" The vaunted Rays pitching looked pretty ordinary tonight. How the hell are they in first place with that lineup?"

don't ever be fooled by their home park factors. that team can hit. they can hit every year.

park factor adjusted wrc+ is our friend. TB players last two years:

CF Kiermaier 113
RF Souza 118
C Jaso 121
3B Longoria 109
1B Loney 107
DH Dejesus 124
LF Jennings 100
2B Forsythe 104
SS Cabrera 88

UT Butler 149
OF Guyer 111
IF Beckham 93
C Rivera 83

"I have no idea how Gibbons does this. How does he know that Navarro is about to start hitting? T"

i thought he was getting some good hacks in the last few games, despite a lack of results.

I do not know how anyone is supposed to manage a team when the only reliever that can apparently be trusted is a 20 year old

Did Gibbons really have to pull the plug on Hendricks in the 8th? Yes, he allowed two straight singles. But he had a 3-run lead. And he's been quite solid all season.

Unless prominent reinforcements are en route (and not merely blancmange of the Redmond/Jenkins ilk), Gibbons is going to have to widen his circle of trust just a little. There are just too many high leverage innings to go around these days.

Crap. Hendriks. Not Hendricks. And definitely not Hendrix.

Now that Arizona has cleared some money & according to La Russa will be using that money to add to the big league team, hopefully they're still interested in Navarro.

"Did Gibbons really have to pull the plug on Hendricks in the 8th? Yes, he allowed two straight singles. But he had a 3-run lead. And he's been quite solid all season."

Don't we want the manager deploying the reliever he trusts the most in the highest leverage situation? Two men on, no outs with a 3 run lead in the 8th sounds like the perfect time to deploy Osuna, and when he's throwing gas I love the decision to leave him out there and try and secure the game. Perhaps this game was even good enough to convince Gibbons that he needs to play the matchups moving forward instead of having a Closer in Cecil. That being said, I do understand the flip side in showing some confidence in Hendriks to see if he can pull out of the situation in the desperate need to discover a reliable arm. It's tough being a manager.

"Now that Arizona has cleared some money & according to La Russa will be using that money to add to the big league team, hopefully they're still interested in Navarro."

They traded for Wellington Castillo on June 3 and so far it's working out just fine for them.

Okay. You be the manager. Your roster has the following seven relief pitchers. The Baseball Gods have kindly informed you of their actual, real, accurate long-run true talent levels (while acknowledging your usage might affect their joints and psyches, possibly with a corresponding effect on their performance):

Carlos Smith (R) - vs RH .210/.270/.360, vs LH .260/.320/.400
Carlos Johnson (R) - vs RH .210/.270/.360, vs LH .260/.320/.400
Carlos Williams (R) - vs RH .210/.270/.360, vs LH .260/.320/.400
Carlos Davis (R) - vs RH .210/.270/.360, vs LH .260/.320/.400
Carlos Loup (L) - vs RH .270/.340/.420, vs LH .195/.260/.280
Carlos Wilson (R) - vs RH .210/.270/.360, vs LH .260/.320/.400
Carlos Thomas (R) - vs RH .210/.270/.360, vs LH .260/.320/.400

They all have albatross contracts so you can't trade them. How do you use them?

Teach Carlos Loup to play a passable left field, so that he can take care of several tough lefties and dodge tough righties.

Oooh, I love "You Be the Manager".  Tell me more, Alex, about the handedness and durability of my starters.  If I have three durable left-handed starters- Mark Buehrle, Mark Boyd and Mark Norris, and two not-so-durable right handed starters, Mark Estrada and Mark Hutchison, I'd pair up two of the RH Carlos with them and then use Carlos Loup for 3 or 4 batters facing predominantly LHHs later in the game.  When the lefties start, he'd be available depending on workload for LOOGY work only.  It'd be a different story if I had four right-handed Marks. 

Another way of dealing with the personnel that the club has would be the "scheduled closer" method.  You can call it bullpen by committee, but it's not exactly what I mean.  Let's say you decide that you want Delabar, Hendriks and Osuna (substitute Sanchez' name in if you prefer)  to share the high leverage RH relief work.  The scheduled closer would generally come in at some point in the eighth inning (and often at the outset of the inning or even in the seventh) and would always have two or three days rest.  If the game is out of hand, a long man finishes it off unless work is needed for the others. 

It's a bit of a rigid plan, but for a manager like Gibbons who sometimes the needs the discipline of a structure to prevent overuse through short outings, it might work. I do prefer Sanchez in the role to Delabar- Sanchez for 2 or even 3 innings is just about perfect. 

Remind me again what exactly Chad Jenkins has done to merit consistent disregard as a viable option by both the front office and this message board?

He walks almost nobody, has solid groundball tendencies and can throw multiple innings. All he does is produce when he's given a chance. One would think that someone who does that would have a place in this (of all) bullpens.

I'd rather keep navarro, myself.

I like having a good bench for once.

"....Remind me again what exactly Chad Jenkins has done to merit consistent disregard as a viable option by both the front office and this message board?....."

I have the same question.  I think he doesn't get any respect because he doesn't strike out batters.  (His K/9 this year is just 4.96 which is pretty close to his career level.)  And he is relatively weak against LHB.   He was told to work on a new pitch this spring, a cutter, to get LHB out.  I'm not sure if he mastered that or not.  But he has usually been effective against RHB (holding them to a .652 OPS in his major-league career).  That's got to be worth something, doesn't it?

Watching Osuna do that makes me very excited for the possibility of him joining the rotation at some point in 2016.

Whiterasta, I'm likely as hard on Jenkins as anyone round here, but my impression of the consensus is that you are in the majority and the Box would like to give Jenkins a real shot. I agree that I'm puzzled about Redmond getting the call over Jenkins in this latest transaction, but it's gotta be how hittable he is, along with those low K rates, that keeps him in AAA?

roughly 111 IP in Buffalo over 3 seasons with a 127 hits and 60 Ks? That'll keep you in AAA. He has been better with the Jays than with the Bisons though, perhaps a result of a groundball pitcher with a ML defence behind him?

It does seem clear that the braintrust doesn't view him as anything more than a depth arm.

We've been through this before.  Jenkins is not ideally suited to being a high leverage reliever due to his stuff and performance against LHB.  As a long man out of the pen, he's great.  He'll face his share of right-handed batters in this role and is perfectly capable of going 3-4 innings. On this club, which seems to be regularly in a 9-4 game or something like that after 4 or 5 innings, you can really use a pitcher like this.  I'd much rather someone like Jenkins than Phil Coke. 

One theory I've had on Jenkins is that they are still wanting him to work on stuff without having to focus on getting hitters out any means necessary, and will have him up once they think he's able to incorporate those changes successfully.  If that's true (again, just my theory), then hopefully he'll be up sooner rather than later in the role you suggest.

Gotta think more moves are coming soon, even if it's just on the Buffalo-Toronto shuttle.   If/when Cecil is out of the closer's role, doesn't seem to be a need for a 3rd LHP, especially if that 3rd LHP's name rhymes with Bob Basmussen.

Hi. We're Canadian Rakin'. We're here to crush your pitching staff. You might also crush ours, but make no mistake: at least one of your pitchers will be crushed during this series.

You know you've got a pretty amazing lineup when you have a hitter with a .891 OPS available (Colabello) and you put him on the bench tonight because you don't really need him. 

Navarro, Encarnacion and Carrera are the three hitters who filled all the possible spots where Colabello could have played tonight. I can't really argue against it. Colabello is just a hot-hitting bench guy tonight.

Carrera, by the way, is up to 105 plate appearances with the Jays and has a line of .304/.356/.391 along with 2 stolen bases and adequate LF defence.  With Pillar's strong defence in CF, Carrera is looking perfectly adequate in LF.  Michael Saunders would certainly provide more power than Carrera, but otherwise the Jays aren't missing Saunders very much at all these days. (As long as Colabello is at 1B or DH as he should be.)  It's been nice to get some more development time for Pompey too.

Carrera could still regress to his career numbers, but it's interesting to note that his 105 PAs are the most major-league playing time he's received since his age-25 season.  And his minor-league numbers are certainly in line with his current hitting in the majors.  (In fact his OPS was .809 at the AAA level over the past two seasons.)  So there's some supporting evidence that his current production might not be a total mirage.  Another excellent Anthopoulos pickup.

I was a bit surprised that Navarro is in the lineup at the expense of Smoak tonight, actually, since Smoak improves your infield defence and gives one of your best hitters the night off in the field.  Smoak has been better as a LH rather than a RH through his career...just interesting to me that they didn't give Dioner the night off.  Of course, after last night, how do you bench him.

It really is incredible how good this offence has been, even without their opening day LF all year, and their opening day 2B for a good chunk of the year.

Also generally unnoticed is the fact that Danny Valencia has a .798 OPS against RHP this year (to go along with a nifty .951 OPS against LHP).  He's another bench weapon who is playing well enough to be a starter on most teams.   Again he might regress against RHP over the course of a season, but it's at least arguable that some of us were a little too quick to ridicule Gibbons for giving him some ABs against RHP last season.  (I'm not denying that his numbers against RHP last year were pretty horrible.)

Gibbons could have left Hendriks in the game Chuck and it is possible Liam may have been just fine. However, while acknowledging SSS and all, let's just say Hendriks has not done much this season to engender A great deal of faith from Gibbons in high leverage scenarios. I am sure Gibbons desperately wants to trust people other than Osuna but at this point in the season can anyone really blame him for not? It is admittedly not the end all, be all statistic but Hendricks has performed worse in high leverage situations than any other member of the Jays pen and that is a frightening thought.

I'd have Smoak in there for sure.  Smoak is a better hitter than Navarro against RHP and is a valuable defender.  I know some managers still believe in "hot hand theory", but I thought that The Book dealt with the evidence on that one pretty well (hot hitters don't do better in subsequent games).  I'm pretty sure that Kevin Cash wouldn't do this kind of thing.

It's interesting to see how hitters have done against Archer.  Bautista has had all kinds of trouble, but not like you would expect.  He has struck out only 3 times in 28 PAs, but has walked only twice and hasn't had an extra-base hit.  Soft contact is not one of Jose's calling cards. Kevin Pillar has faced Archer 8 times and has nothing to show (he has struck out in 5 of the 8 PAs).  Reyes, Navarro and Smoak have held their own.  Edwin has 3 homers in 28 PAs but not much else.

That is not to say that I think he couldn't/shouldn't be successful as a high leverage reliever but rather that poor Gibbons' confidence has been murdered in such a horrific fashion by the bullpen and I can't see anyone's margin of error being too great. Ultimately the bullpen's collective members need to start getting outs at important times or it won't matter what the offense does ROS.

I like Cash Mike but let's not throw too many laurels his way just yet. Unless I was using a new math, it was Cash's team that had 9 relievers sitting in the bullpen last night leaving Nick Franklin to strikeout in key late game plate appearances.

It's a smart move to try and get Navarro's bat going and see if you can get a reliever out of it. The offensive difference, if it exists, is quite minimal.

Hendriks has had two high leverage appearances.  He came on in the 6th inning with a 3-2 lead on May 16 and gave up two homers to the Astros and took the loss.  That was bad.  And then there was the May 26 game against the White Sox which was eephus' Game of the Month. He didn't pitch badly but got bad results.  He hasn't given up a run since. 

Gibbons doesn't seem to have a terrific amount of perspective.  He reacts very much to the immediate.  I think that Bill James in his Manager in the Box broke it down into "instinctive" vs. "rational" decision-making, and  Gibbons is probably more in the former category.  I tend to prefer the rational ones. 

"....Smoak is a better hitter than Navarro against RHP...."

That's marginally true in 2015, but it certainly wasn't true in a much bigger sample in 2014.   Looking at their performance against RHP over their careers, there isn't much to choose from between them.   Of course it can be argued that Smoak's numbers were artificially depressed by Seattle park factors in the past. 

For me, Gibbons is the direct opposite of instinctive. You may not agree with the rational, but there's almost always a clear one available, if you have an open mind.

A 9 man bullpen would mean you have a backup C and one bench player, unless you only have a 4 man rotation. The Rays' bullpen is 8 deep.

"Smoak is a better hitter than Navarro against RHP"

so far this year maybe, but i'm not sure there's been much difference in recent years.

Prediction - tonight we finally get to Archer.

"...You may not agree with the rationale, but there's almost always a clear one available, if you have an open mind..."

Agreed.

Also generally unnoticed is the fact that Danny Valencia has a .798 OPS against RHP this year

I figured a post like this was going to be coming soon from someone. Once Valencia clubbed homeruns off the RH knuckleballer Wright and the RH Mets sacrificial lamb emergency call-up Akeel Morris, he figured to have enough total bases in the bank to prop up his SLG versus RHP for the foreseeable future (given how few AB he gets against RHP). His OBP against RHP is still just .259 and his career OPS against RHP is .624, so we can all pretend he's magically turned a corner against RHP or we can keep things in perspective.

Valencia facing a RHP with breaking stuff is a recipe for disaster.

I think that Bill James in his Manager in the Box broke it down into "instinctive" vs. "rational" decision-making, and Gibbons is probably more in the former category.

I agree with this. Gibbons has his guys (Navarro, Loup, Cecil, Valencia), who served him well at some point and now earn continued high leverage usage, even if there is at least a rational argument to be made against it in certain situations.

And he has guys he seems to have his doubts about (Hendriks, Smoak, Delabar, perhaps Hutchison).

His instincts seem to be to favour his guys when the chips are down. Yes, those guys over there in column B have plenty of warts and are not beyond scrutiny, but I'd like to see them included in the mix a little more.

I think he's more rational than most. this is why he'll keep playing navarro when he's scuffling and there's other good options.

he does have his fair share of gut calls, though, and unfortunately this year most of those have backfired i think.

and chuck great point on valencia - guy is finally thriving in the platoon role he always should have been in, and a coupla big flies against carefully selected righties don't change anything.

if there is a guy making me think twice about his platoonity, though, it would be kevin pillar.

Any instincts can be rationalized. Managers are only human.

I find the constant handwringing about bullpen roles to be kind of funny on a team that's a lot closer to having 7 identical relievers than people realize. (Or was until Coke/Rasmussen entered the picture, anyway.)

The word "trust" gets thrown around like nobody's ever lost a game before. You can't trust Dellin Betances to put up a 0. At some point every game he is going to have to put one in the strike zone, and then maybe it'll get hit and the emotional force of the letdown will blast your fragile heart to smithereens and you'll never love again. You certainly can't expect Liam Hendriks or Steve Delabar or Bo Schultz or Ryan Tepera to deliver 0s every time, either, but if you keep putting them in position to succeed you can be pretty confident (maybe even trust) that as relievers they'll put up around a 3 or 4 ERA in the long run. If you can't make your peace with that, your trust issues aren't the pitchers' fault. They're yours.

Unless by "trust" we mostly mean "we just want our bullpen to be better than average," and you can take that up with the sabermetric folks I guess.

"....guy is finally thriving in the platoon role he always should have been in...."

That's not quite true, since Valencia has actually had more ABs against RHP than against LHP this season.  And it's not really true that a couple of flukey HRs are purely responsible for his numbers.  He has more extra-base hits against RHP than against LHP this season (9 vs 5).  But yes, still a small sample size, fair point.

And it's not really true that a couple of flukey HRs are purely responsible for his numbers.

Take away those two at-bats that resulted in homeruns: the one against the knuckleballer and the one against the A-baller. That gives him a 631 OPS, right in line with his career mark against RHP.

I'm fine with Valencia starting against any RH knuckleballer or RH A-ball pitcher. Against all other RH starters, he should be sitting and watching.

Because nobody else in the league ever hits against bad pitchers.

I suppose we could adjust everyone's statistics.  Take away all their hits against the bad pitchers.  I think we'd see a lot of 100-point drops in a lot of OPS's.

You said "And it's not really true that a couple of flukey HRs are purely responsible for his numbers".

I then did the math.

Even accepting your point about the HR against Akeel Morris (which implies that we similarly shouldn't count anyone's HR against Miguel Castro or Scott Copeland either), I really don't understand your point about knuckleballers.  Why should we subtract a home run from Valencia's numbers just because it was hit against Wright?  As you noted, with the small sample size, subtracting one HR makes a big difference to the OPS.  It's kind of rigging the game if you decide that both HRs were flukes.  (And by the way, I thought I was quoting you when I referred to the HRs as flukey, although perhaps I didn't make that clear.)

Archer has no real platoon split this year, which is probably a small sample anomaly. I think Gibby will use Smoak if the pitcher has a large split.

Valencia has trouble with curves and sliders, more than most RHB do against RHP. His troubles are so profound, in fact, that he has an abysmal career OPS against RHP.

So all I'm saying is that a couple of well timed homeruns off an A-ball call-up and a non-curve/slider RHP should not be taken as some kind of proof that he can suddenly do against RHP what he has spent his whole career not able to do.

If you want to believe that he can now hit righties, and that Gibbons' faith in him to do so is not without merit, have at it. We'll just have to disagree.

Well, I certainly wasn't presenting it as "proof" of anything.  I was presenting it more as data that complicates the accepted narrative.  But if your essential point is that the fans are smarter than Gibbons and Anthopoulos, yes, we'll have to disagree.

Does he really have faith in him vs righties? I mean, he had the day yesterday when Gibbons decided to rest Donaldson, but that's about who he wanted to rest instead of who he wanted to play.

As for seeing more ABs vs righties in general... May was messy, and someone had to play the OF.

Geez. Straw man much?

If you can't make your peace with that, your trust issues aren't the pitchers' fault. They're yours. When I talk about trust Alex it is not about the macro performance of the pen but rather the performance in high leverage situations. This does not scream "Trust us, we'll be fine". This is implosion, after implosion, after implosion....

The word "trust" gets thrown around like nobody's ever lost a game before.

A guy like Delabar is never going to get much trust from his manager, simply because he walks so many guys. Managers hate that because they all believe that a major league pitcher should always, always be able to throw a strike when necessary. They really do.

Now one of the reasons Delabar walks so many guys is because he's so damn hard to hit. Even last season, when Delabar was walking almost 7 per 9 IP, he actually threw a greater percentage of his pitches for strikes (61.7) than Aaron Loup (60.7). But because it's so much easier to make contact against Loup, the AB ends before a walk can happen.

Hendriks has had two high leverage appearances.

Maybe I don't understand leverage Mike, because by my count he has made 3 high leverage appearances in the last week and a half (BOS, NYM, TB) and exited the game having made matters worse each time.

I'm guessing the 52.6% of first pitch strikes for Delabar didn't help in 2014 (Loup was 56.2%, and league average was 60.6%). Continuously being in a 1-0 count (and the ensuing walks, and grooved pitches to get back in the count) can cause a manager (and fans) to bald prematurely. Thankfully, that doesn't appear to be an issue this year.

"Hot Hand" Navarro takes Bill James deep.

I know some managers still believe in "hot hand theory", but I thought that The Book dealt with the evidence on that one pretty well (hot hitters don't do better in subsequent games).

I think we need to go over that one in details again.

I'm guessing the 52.6% of first pitch strikes for Delabar didn't help in 2014 (Loup was 56.2%, and league average was 60.6%). Continuously being in a 1-0 count (and the ensuing walks, and grooved pitches to get back in the count) can cause a manager (and fans) to bald prematurely.

I'm sure it didn't help, but only because he ended up walking so many guys. If he really was grooving pitches to get back into the count, it's hard to see what difference it made. He still walked a zillion guys, and the opposition still couldn't hit him (.211 BAVG, .367 slugging - his career numbers are .204 and .371).

I thought that The Book dealt with the evidence on that one pretty well (hot hitters don't do better in subsequent games).

That would also mean there's no such thing as a slump, right? No hot hitters, no cold hitters?

Reyes is giving the impression that he thought Goins was covering second, which is nuts (LH batter, and a pitcher who throws 80 mph when he's really bringing it.) He isn't always the most alert guy on the field.

The rest of his numbers look like pity from the BABIP gods, which he needed since he was striking out 5 batters less per 9.

Not a great half inning after tying the game in the top of the 5th.

Boy, Reyes really seems to be mailing it in on defense of late. Lots of managers and GMs would be less tolerant than Gibbons and AA of his mental lapses and seeming indifference at times on D.

Martin, an intense competitor, was clearly not happy about Reyes's lack of hustle in covering second on the play.

And where in the world is Jerry? How much longer do we have to suffer through Wilner? Disciplined for telling it like it is?

The rest of his numbers look like pity from the BABIP gods

True dat. He got lucky, but he was still ineffective. It was all the walks that made him ineffective.

I think the point I'm groping towards is that a pitcher like Delabar has less margin for error than a guy like Loup, despite his ability to miss bats. Which seems counter-intuitive (to me, anyway!) And it's actually because of his ability to miss bats. Because his control is a little shaky to start with, Delabar can't afford any slippage in his capacity to throw strikes. Loup (who was even further off his career ball-strike ratio in 2014) can get away with it - it's not nearly as relevant to him. This year, Loup is throwing more strikes than ever. It's not helping him all that much.

Navarro has certainly risen to the occasion.  It doesn't make it the right move, but it has definitely worked out.  It would have been nice if he had been pinch-run for...

Yes, I was thinking the Jays could have pinch-run for Navarro after he got on base. That might prove to be the difference in the ballgame.

That would also mean there's no such thing as a slump, right? No hot hitters, no cold hitters?

Actually, Magpie, the evidence is that there are cold hitters, but not hot hitters.  One theory is that cold hitters disproportionately are trying to play through injuries.  Their current performance is a reflection of something real and of some sustained importance.  Whereas hot hitters disproportionately benefit from BABIP luck which is not. 

I don't know if Colabello would have been any faster...

Actually, Magpie, the evidence is that there are cold hitters, but not hot hitters.

So, couldn't you just say that playing the hot hitter is simply avoiding the cold player? I know there's probably a bit more going on, but I couldn't resist.

the evidence is that there are cold hitters, but not hot hitters.

Well, that would be wrong! There are hot hitters. Jose Bautista has been pretty hot this month, and it's most certainly not because the gods of BABiP have taken a shine to him. They haven't. He's been hot because he's been putting lots of balls out of play.

What the evidence is really telling you there's no way to know if a hitter is going to stay hot. I think I knew that already.

"That's the 60th double play the Jays have turned."

Thank you, Pat. That would be slightly below the league average for DPs, on a team that has more than an average number of people on base.

What Jose Bautista has done this month is consistent with his performance over the last 5 years, save for when he is injured. 

When a manager puts a player in the lineup because he's hit a lot better than this career norms over the last 10 days, he's betting on the hot streak continuing, just like a gambler in Vegas. And he'll lose to the house, over the long run.

I dunno... I think 8 home runs in 62 ABs is hot Bautista.

The Jays did that with Bautista in late 2009, and they've been beating "the house" ever since.

OK, before I go - if you have a chance to look at the sky in the north-west tonight about an hour from now, you should see the moon, Jupiter, and Venus all lined up in a nice little row. (If it's slightly overcast, they'll be the only objects visible.)

That's not a hot hitter.  That is a change in performance level.  That definitely happens, although it is uncommon at the age that Bautista changed. I don't see how that is relevant to Dioner Navarro, June 2015.

moon, Jupiter, and Venus all lined up in a nice little row

no Mars, no Age of Aquarius...

That was a joke...should have telegraphed that better. Although it's kind of felicitous to imagine a hitter getting hot for six years and counting. Sort of like something W.P. Kinsella would dream up.

Well, he's a changed performance level guy that's also hot - I'm not betting his true talent level is ~1.110 OPS (a level he's passed 6 other months since 2009, 5 in 2010-2011.)

Archer is an excellent pitcher, but the Jays had a chance to win this one (of course, the Rays had their share of opportunities, too). This has been an oddly frustrating season to be a Jays fan.

Especially given the Jays runs differential, they should be sitting comfortably in 1st place.

such a winnable game. frak.

Feel like posting something positive.

Checked the FG position player leaderboard for the past 30 days. 174 players total with 30 PA's. Jays have 5 of the top 23 by WAR, Bautista #2, Donaldson # 5, Pillar #12, Martin #22, Reyes #23.

And something negative.

Remember when people were pointing out Anthony Gose's hot start? As predicted by some (Mike?) his .400+ BABIP wasn't going to be sustainable. It's at .250 the past 30 days, good for a 25 wRC+, helping him to -0.6 WAR, #171 of those 174.

that ain't nuttin'....

Jake Marisnick

APR: 190wrc+
MAY: 39wrc+
JUN: 29wrc+

"When a manager puts a player in the lineup because he's hit a lot better than this career norms over the last 10 days, he's betting on the hot streak continuing, just like a gambler in Vegas. And he'll lose to the house, over the long run."

Mike, I'm curious if you play any fantasy baseball. Because this is something that is very much a parallel for a fantasy baseball manager vs a real big league manager, deciding who to play in the last few slots on a given day and who rides the bench. I certainly can't resist the urge to look at who's been hot and who's been cold when doing this. Maybe it should be noted that I don't have a very good career record in fantasy baseball.

Phew.  Reminds one of why April numbers are not something to focus on too much.  Marisnick and Gose each can be good role players but playing them everyday is just asking for problems it seems.  Hopefully Travis does well when he returns, although Goins has done the job it seems (at 0.2 fWAR so far, value of $1.4 mil).  Not 'wow' but solid and good defense on this team helps a lot.  Gose is down to 0.1 fWAR, still positive but probably not much longer and he is still a negative in fielding based on UZR/150.  Marisnick is still at 0.5 fWAR with negative UZR/150 at all positions this year and an 85 wRC+ so his WAR is counting on his baserunning and positional adjustment only (11-4 SB-CS). 

FYI: Travis was at 1.3 fWAR when he went down. 

I don't play fantasy baseball.  I did play board baseball in the age of the hair rock bands and rotisserie around the time of grunge. Although there were in-season transactions in rotisserie, it wasn't at the level that it now is (from what I read).  It was more about mid-season rookie hotshots- the second coming (Bernie Williams) who did make it and the third coming (Phil Plantier) who didn't. There were useful lessons in that.

I wouldn't put last night's game down in the "should have won" category.  Off Dickey in 7 innings, the Rays had 8 hits, 3 walks, 2 HBPS, 2 strikeouts, and there were four advancements (stolen base, a wild pitch and two passed balls) .  Most days, that will add up to more runs.  Dickey did keep the ball in the yard.

In the book Scorecasting, which was sort of an attempt to be a Freakonomics for sports, one chapter focuses on the issue of a hot hand in basketball. It might have addressed hot/cold streaks in sports more generally, but I only remember the basketball discussion. They concluded, much like Mike is saying, that there's no such thing -- a player that's made X number of shots in a row is no more likely than he usually is to make the next one. To me, the most striking example they mentioned was that the success of the 2nd free throw is completely independent of what happens on the first one. Hit the first one, miss the first one -- a 70% free throw shooter is going to make roughly 70% on the second shot regardless.

Thanks, TUIB.  I hadn't heard of Scorecasting. The interesting question is when a "hot streak" is strongly suggestive of a change in performance level.  It depends on, at least,  the particular indicia of a hot streak (I imagine that if you see a large increase in  batted ball distance and a large decrease in K rate, the period would be shorter than if you just looked at large increases in OPS or wRC+, for instance) and the player's age and development path.

I remember reading an ESPN article on hot hand in basketball last year. What I remember as was that yes, players do get hot, but when they do, most start attempting more shots with a higher/much higher rate of difficulty. Predictably, that pretty well negates their hot handedness.

Maybe something similar occurs in baseball. Player gets hot and opponents start challenging him less often. But because his confidence is so high, he starts swinging at pitches he would normally lay off?

"And where in the world is Jerry? How much longer do we have to suffer through Wilner? Disciplined for telling it like it is?"

You mean you don't believe he had laryngitis?! Jerry has been back since the weekend, but he's still calling fewer innings than is his norm.

Today Navarro catches, Martin DHs and Colabello is in left field against the RHP.  What's the over/under on Rays' stolen bases today?

Sorry, Dewey.  There should be no apostrophe after Rays. 

Mike's critique of the "Hot Hand" theory is apparently based on the assumption that Gibbons chose Navarro as DH merely because he'd been hot in the past 10 days.  But isn't it more likely that the opposite is true:  Navarro had been hitting unusually badly in the early part of the season -- far below career norms -- and he has merely reverted to something closer to his career numbers in the past few weeks, and those career numbers made him a better choice than Smoak for the DH slot.  Over the past four seasons, Navarro has an OPS of .758.   Since returning from injury this year, his OPS is .818 which isn't wildly different from what he's been able to do in surges in the past.  Based on those two numbers, there's nothing wrong with choosing Navarro over Smoak, who has a .690 OPS over the past four years.   Ball park factors and platoon factors might alter that a little, but not drastically enough to alter my main point, which is that Navarro isn't merely the "Hot Hand" but a legitimate hitter.

Navarro over his career has hit left-hand pitching better than right-hand pitching.  Smoak is the reverse.  When you take into account that, and the ballpark adjustments and in particular Safeco, and their respective ages, and Smoak's defensive superiority over Encarnacion and the desirability of keeping Edwin off the turf, and Navarro's glacial pace on the basepaths, it's really no contest.  Navarro is hot and he is being showcased.  That's all there is to it.

Maybe something similar occurs in baseball. Player gets hot and opponents start challenging him less often. But because his confidence is so high, he starts swinging at pitches he would normally lay off?

I always felt that Lind had a particular cycle: start seeing pitches well (taking balls, swinging at good pitches), then come the hard hit balls for a while, followed by the "I can hit anything!" phase. Then comes the petering off to a slump. Rinse and Repeat.

It'll be interesting if pitch f/x and statscast data allows a more procedural look into hotness and coldness to see if there are any predictive trends that were absent in the results data.

What's the over/under on Rays' stolen bases today?

With Reyes at short, does it really matter whose behind the plate?

".....Navarro over his career has hit left-hand pitching better than right-hand pitching.  Smoak is the reverse...."

Navarro's OPS was .707 against RHP hitters last season, while Smoak was .611.  You must be imagining a massive park adjustment, because the platoon splits are still clearly in Navarro's favor.  If you're going to say it's "no contest" you really have to provide more data than just the "speed on the bases" thing.

Delete the word "hitters" from the first line of my post, of course.   Should have read just "RHP."

it is a bit strange to critique playing navarro via the hot hand strategy when the complaints of him playing started when he was ice cold.

that being said, navarro playing pretty much every day the past week, including today, when the other guys deserve to play just as much - especially playing him at C 3 times - really seems to me to be showcasing. I think AA has a deal near ready to to.

Just to add some more stats to the discussion. Smoak career .712 OPS and Navarro .664 career OPS against RHP and that is unadjusted for ballparks. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

so including today that's 8 of the last 9gms that navarro has played in. 6 of those as a starter. 4 of them as the starting C.

while he's played well, given his competition for those spots, I think this is most likely showcasing.

I think AA is close to making a move.

MatO, thank you, I stand corrected.   I still feel 2014 is more relevant to the discussion.  Navarro had some awful years from 2009 to 2011 that drag down his career numbers.

I'm still trying to figure out what team out there would be willing to give up what the Jays need for 3 months of a soon to be UFA C, since said team would presumably also need to be in contention for it to make any sense for them to give up an asset. 

Unless it is a 3 team deal, I guess (Toronto gives Navarro to some team, who gives prospect to some other team, who gives something to Toronto).

Consider me one of those a little bit worried about what would happen if Martin got hurt after we dealt Navarro (say hello to Josh Thole, everyday starter).  I'd much prefer to simply make a deal for SP and RP without touching the active bats unless absolutely necessary.

Do any predictive systems use 4-5-6 yr old stats? I thought it was the past 3 seasons with most recent weighted more heavily.

For what it's worth, Steamer predicted a 97 wRC+ for Navarro this season, and 99 for Smoak.

I agree, hypobole, that it is better to use something less than Navarro's career line to project him.  It is tricky however because he had so few PAs in 2010-2012.  He only has 1100 PAs since 2010, and that would be equivalent to just over a season and a half for an everyday regular.  His IsoP for his career is .121 and for the years 2011-15 it has been .131, .159, .192, .121, .143.  He's obviously a bigger man than he was as a rookie, and I think that the increase in his power from age 27 is real.  Most of the increase has been against LHP, but some has been against RHP. 

In the result, it doesn't change the calculus much.  If you want to project Smoak and Navarro against a RHP in the same park in 2015, you should have Smoak with a somewhat better slash line.  And then there's defence...

Having said all that, I do want to emphasize that I'm definitely a fan of Justin Smoak.  He's currently playing at a rate of 3.0 WAR per 600 plate appearances.  Here's a good analysis of how he's doing it:

http://capitaljays.com/2015/06/24/justin-smoak-a-fresh-start-an-adjustment-and-exceeding-expectations/

so Marco Estrada is our Ace.

He's definitely hot right now.

12:55 and the game just reached the hakfway mark.

Tampa's management is pretty amazing.

Hopefully some author is following them around and will tell us what they are doing differently one day.

12:55 and the game just reached the hakfway mark.

As opposed to the halfway mark, which is next inning? :-)

"He's definitely hot right now."

heh

Wow. This game is cruising.

The Jays have such trouble with Rays pitching... Come on Jays. Let's win this series!

and now we reach the halfway mark!

Combined stats for the starting pitchers today.

9IP, 0 hits, 1 walk, 9 k's

Karns: 5.0ip, 0ht, 0r, 1bb, 4k (51pc/31st)
Estrada: 5.0ip, 0ht, 0r, 0bb, 6k (57pc, 40st)

that's tidy.

and now we reach the halfway mark!

Hey, I once typed b-i-t-c-h when I meant "bench." As you can imagine, this produced one of the more unusual sentences in Box history.

Seriously, Estrada, get your stuff together.  Karns has thrown 89% of the pitches you have to the same results...pick up the efficiency, Marco. :)

Man, everyone's got a plane to catch today.

A hit! A palpable hit!

magpie i'm just glad we have a solid b*tch this year.

this is starting to get interesting.

I know it would be a tough pill to swallow, but I think Edwin needs to take a few weeks off. His shoulder is obviously bugging him and not letting him swing properly.

C'mon guys.  Let's give Marco some support here.  Runners on corners, nobody out.  Cash something here please.

Starting to have flashbacks to Saturday afternoon.....

I agree, especially with ample options at 1B/DH.

When Martin Kd with the bases loaded and no outs? Ya, I'll bet Gibbons is having flashbacks too, and that he remembered that PA when batting Navarro in front of Martin.

"I know it would be a tough pill to swallow, but I think Edwin needs to take a few weeks off. His shoulder is obviously bugging him and not letting him swing properly."

we might be a bit spoiled by our offense and EE's past performance, because while i agree it might feel a bit that way, the numbers say EE has been right back to being EE since having a bad April.

APR: 65wrc+
MAY: 131wrc+
JUN: 144wrc+

90 pitches.

For me, it's more how he looks like he's obviously in pain that is the issue, not the production.

Even one 15 day DL stint could help him come back strong for the rest of the season.

If you're not watching or listening to the game now, tune in...

apparently i just missed the greatest catch of all time. crap.

Thanks, Tampa Bay, for showing us what a bullpen looks like.

You rock, Donaldson.  97 pitches.

the greatest catch of all time

It was the full Jeter...

Damn. Safe by roughly the width of a baseball...

Almost 2 fantastic plays in a row by Donaldson.  Baseball is a game of millimetres.

Bo Schultz and Rob Rasmussen warming in the bullpen in a scoreless game in the 8th? This is what our bullpen has come to.

It would be really nice if we could still buckle down and at least get Marco a W for his trouble.

An incredible game by Estrada, after an incredible game last time too.  That Lind trade is looking better and better.  How did Estrada end up in the bullpen after spring training? 

@EliasSports

Marco Estrada is the first major-league pitcher to take a no-hitter to the 8th inning in consecutive starts since Dave Stieb in 1988.

Come on! How many times can we leave a runner on third?!!!

If you're wanting to see Donaldson's catch:

https://twitter.com/MLB/status/613775449903120384

https://twitter.com/bruce_arthur/status/613772191193296896

Estrada allowed 1 hit through 7 innings last time out. Unless I'm reading something wrong.

That 1 hit was in the 8th inning

argh.

welp, if our pen doesn't suck at least we've used up all their good arms.

argh.

welp, if our pen doesn't suck at least we've used up all their good arms.

Estrada allowed 1 hit through 7 innings last time out. Unless I'm reading something wrong.

He gave up the hit to start the 8th inning, and then was removed. So it was "7+" innings with 1 hit last time.

Bit surprised to see Estrada back out there.

Ahhh ok, gotcha.

I'm not, at all. He's their best option right now.

don't think i'd let him face the top of the order again.

Rasmussen in to face Kiermaier, please?

that's called pushing your luck.

osuna please.

Osuna in to face Jy. Butler

estrada getting the loss here would sting.

Boy, if Reyes missed that one...

When he's paying attention, Reyes is not bad.

Struggling a bit with the decision to push Estrada to 129 pitches, and then put Osuna into a massive pressure spot rather than letting someone start the inning clean, but wow.  What a performance.  Game Score of 90.  Too bad we couldn't get the one key hit for him today.  Here's hoping the Jays can pull it out against the TB BP.

what was osuna's workload coming in?

How can it be 10 scoreless innings with this incredible offense?  Sigh. 

2 innings on Monday, I guess.  Probably right not to ask him to do too much.  I was assuming after Monday he may have been done for the series anyways.

That was weird.

It worked out, but why not intentionally walk Guyer to at least allow a force at any base?

I guess the instinct for a pitcher is always to throw to 1B for the DP, since the runner is right there in your eyesight.  Not sure if any of the Jays were yelling to him to throw to 2B instead.

not sure whether Schultz deserves praise or criticism for that inning. i guess holding it together against what passes for the meat of their order with 2 men on and an error thrown in the mix is a positive.

Weird may be an understatement.  The Trop is a house of horrors and when the ball got by Colabello, I was sure that Longoria would score (I had the sound off). 

chances longoria doesn't win it here?

High, considering they better intentionally walk him.

100%.

ah. smart IBB.

still don't like our chances.

good BABIP!!

Had 'em all the way, huh Brett?  Sigh.

That said, I'm happy for the guy he wiggled out of that.  Can't even imagine the papers/JaysTalk if he lost that game.

Onto the 12th!

that sure is two interesting extra innings from our bullpen.

Reyes took a very poor route to Kiermaier's blooper.  Years ago, he'd have made up the lost ground.  Not any more.

Cola-ola-bello!

Who closes in the 12th now?

Delabar.

Brett Cecil stands to win, if the Jays can hold on in the bottom of the 12th.

1 run game, save situation, grab your popcorn!

I had just been muttering some negative thoughts about Colabello.  Hitless through 11 innings.  Are pitchers adjusting to him?  Should he have exited the game when Carrera entered, instead of being switched to 1B?  Would Smoak have caught that throw from Schultz in the previous inning?  And then Colabello reminded me that he's still a good hitter and still hasn't regressed so far.  Good thing I'm not the manager.

#cantpredictball CF

Had 'em all the way.  Way to dig deep and pull out the series win in a place where we get far too few of them.  Rest up tomorrow, boys, and let's get another winning streak going starting Friday versus the Rangers.

Funny, I thought the same thing in the 9th, Gibby should have pinch hit Smoak for Cola.

Pretty sweet. Now let's get out of this godforsaken town.

could have been a horrible loss, turns into an awesome win. nice.

this was a pretty huge series win in the inferno known as the trop. nice bounceback from the orioles series, too.

I had just been on the verge of uttering some pseudo-profound baseball adage, such as "Good pitching always beats good hitting."  Instead the Jays come out with a series victory in their nemesis stadium.  Unbelievably, they out-pitched the Rays.  Even their bullpen out-pitched the Rays.  Tomorrow's rest day is well-timed.  Osuna can be available on Friday, and Cecil and Delabar got a nice little morale boost today.  A lot of second-guessers would have had Rasmussen into the game instead of Cecil or Delabar, but Gibbons called it right.

This is the kind of win that makes me feel better about the team, as opposed to a 9-7 win where our great hitting making up for our lousy pitching.

We all know Estrada isn't the second coming of Dave Stieb, and no one knows how long this will last, but at least there's a realistic chance he may be more than a #5 this year.

And a reliever not named Osuna actually had a clean high leverage inning. Maybe Delabar has rediscovered something, and the back end of the pen isn't close to the mess it looked 3 days ago.

Estrada's performance this year is reasonably consistent with his career.  If the club can get 160 league average innings out of him (and it looks like they can), that would be great. 

First time this season that the Jays have won a game after scoring less than 3 runs.

Jays beat reporters are speculating that Felix Doubront will get the start on Saturday.  After 128 pitches today, Estrada gets an extra day of rest, according to Gibbons after the game, so the rotation will be pushed back a day.  That's good for the others too, especially Hutchison who always seems to thrive on extra rest.  Will be interesting to see Doubront.  The Jays need a 6th starter to emerge from the minors, since Copeland didn't make the grade.   Norris and Boyd must be close to promotions soon, however.

doubront is asking for trouble. would rather see boyd.



Estrada as SP

Career: 5.8ip/gs, 4.24era, 4.22fip, 3.85xfip, 3.65siera
11-14: 5.9ip/gs, 4.10era, 4.18fip, 3.75xfip, 3.56siera
Best Yr: 5.6ip/gs, 3.76era, 3.33fip, 3.51xfip, 3.30siera
This Yr: 6.2ip/gs, 3.90era, 3.81fip, 4.27xfip, 4.04siera

yeah nothing too shocking about estrada this year. he was a pretty good starter before last year's homer explosion.

I'm not sure if the Brewers would have traded Estrada for Lind if they thought he was a good starting pitcher.  I think most GMs saw Estrada as a swing man, a 6th starter, who could be pressed into the rotation in an emergency but should probably be in the bullpen most of the time as a long man and spot starter.  And while I haven't checked our discussion threads from the off-season, I think most Bauxites were of the same opinion.  I don't recall anyone who said Estrada should definitely be one of the 5 starters in the Jays rotation this year.  Maybe some of us said it, but I don't recall it.  The consensus was:  6th starter, long man, spot starter. Yet as those career numbers suggest, 2014 was an outlier and he should always have been one of the frontrunners for the 5th-starter spot at least.

I would like to see Doubrount to come up and see if we got anything of value. If he fails, send him back to Buffalo and call it a day. If he succeeds, you now have a piece that has "some" value. Especially since he is LHP.

Love the win. It is nice to finally win that close one.

"I'm not sure if the Brewers would have traded Estrada for Lind if they thought he was a good starting pitcher."

I'm not sure the jays would have traded lind if they thought estrada couldn't beca good pitcher.

"I'm not sure the jays would have traded lind if they thought estrada couldn't beca good pitcher."

I'm pretty sure the Blue Jays would've declined Lind's option if they couldn't trade him.

Lind definitely has no place on this team. Opening up that DH slot has been very important (Jose, EE, Smoak, Cola, Navarro).

lind has been one of the better hitters in baseball the past few years. just because our stacked lineup could afford to move him doesn't mean he had no value, and of course we would have picked up his option.

I'm pretty sure the Blue Jays would've declined Lind's option if they couldn't trade him.

Why?  Dave Cameron had $/WAR at around $6 million back in 2014, and it's only gone up since.  Lind would've cost $6.5 million for the Jays this year with his buyout factored in, and he's at an entirely predictable 1.1 thus far for Milwaukee.   he netted 1.5 WAR the last two years in TO and that's without being ideally deployed (platoon, DH, off the turf, etc). 

So that makes him a legit asset, which of course is the key question - not whether he was a good fit for the Jays with our glut of aging hitters / 1b / dh types. 

Recall all the suggestions that Estrada get non-tendered?  or that we dump Navarro's contract for nothing?  stats geeks like us on the box tend to undervalue middling assets.  

I'm still guessing Dickey's option gets picked up.  Heck, I'd bet a favourite beverage on it, unless we are talking a Mylegacy single malt, which I fear might be outta my range....

willingly giving a negative war 40yr old a $12m deal would beca distressing move.


i mean, why did we even make it an option in the first place if he didn't have to earn it?

".....Recall all the suggestions that Estrada get non-tendered?...."

Damn, I'd forgotten about that, but you're absolutely right, there were people who thought the Jays should save money by non-tendering him.  That's how little he was valued by some.

$6MM/WAR was FA value, no? If so, it's not entirely the same as measuring Lind's value to other teams when they have to trade for him.

I think Estrado for Lind was a pretty good trade for both teams.

Doubront would probably declare free agency if sent back to Buffalo.

JB21, you're right, FA value.  but I'm not talking about Lind's value to Milwaukee in a trade - strictly whether or not he was worthy of our option.

But I agree, a good deal for both teams. 

"Why? Dave Cameron had $/WAR at around $6 million back in 2014, and it's only gone up since....."

It's not about whether or not Lind had value. The point was simply we had 2 players (EE/Lind) that could only play 1B/DH, one of which has significant platoon splits. Add in the fact that as other players (Bautista, Reyes, Navarro, Smoak etc) could be rotated through the DH spot for off days but keeping their bat in the lineup created a log jam.

If AA really did want to keep Lind, why did he wait until the very last day to exercise the option? And why did he only exercise it, when he had a trade already lined up? I believe the conclusion is simple, the additional $6.5 million AA wanted to be deployed elsewhere. If he could trade Lind and get some value back, he would. If no takers, he would decline the option and use those monies on elsewhere, likely for pitching.

Brett Lawrie has been pretty hot recently, 329/375/561 in the last month.

Oakland is 7-3 in thier last 10. Could Billy Beane do it again?

yup.oakland's run diff and baserun diff say they should be very good going forard.

ESPN has Redmond as the Jays' starter Saturday. Please say it ain't so Joe.

Looking at three true outcomes:

Hutchison... 1.1, 2.5, 7.9, 5.33 ERA, 3.93 FIP
Estrada....... 1.0, 2.8, 7.8, 3.45 ERA, 3.83 FIP

The difference? BABIP.

Hutchison: .339 (.305 career)
Estrada: .243 (.272 career)

Estrada's career ERA and FIP align very closely. Hutchison's, however, do not. His career ERA is a ridiculous 0.7 higher than his FIP (0.6 higher in 2014, 1.4 higher in 2015).

Is there a regression coming for Hutchison? Can we view his TTO rates as signs of good fortune ahead? Or is he just one of those guys (whoever they are) whose ERA can't match their FIP. I used to think that Burnett and Morrow were two such guys, but their disparities are much smaller than I would have thought (Morrow 0.3, Burnett 0.1).

Hutchison has had a different issue this year than previous years.  This year, the BABIP is high because his line-drive rate is high.  His slider has been inconsistent, and when it's been less than sharp, it has mostly been hit on a line instead of out of the park.  In previous years, his issue was poor performance with runners on base.  I have no idea whether he will regain the consistent sharp slider.  He's had it sometimes this year, but not enough to be the good pitcher that I thought he would be.

Steamer and ZIPS both project an ERA of just over 4 for him for the rest of the year.  That is probably fair.

the worrying thing about hutch is that his era has so consistently underachieved his fips. at a certain point you have to start being concerned that there's more than just bad luck here.

i still think the regression is coming but i'm starting to have some doubts.

Brett Lawrie has been pretty hot recently, 329/375/561 in the last month.

That K/BB rate is pretty frightening, though. Swinging at everything has been sort of working for him so far, but once his BABIP comes back down to earth he's probably going to end sporting a sub-.300 OBP. His strikeout rate and walk rate this year are by far the worst of his career. His overall value so far this year is actually very similar to last year's - 1.7 WAR in 282 PA's last year; 1.6 WAR in 277 PA's so far this year.

I'm not trying to dump on Lawrie - good for him that he's producing with the bat - but until Baretto develops into a league-average (or better) starting shortstop, I can't help but go on thinking the Jays absolutely robbed Oakland of Donaldson.

I went looking for an interview with Doug Davis here, and instead found this gem on Kevin Cash.  Of course, I should have realized that John Gibbons was involved in his development.

Depending on how we value 6 years of cost-controlled Kendall Graveman ( I valued him more or less on par with 3 years of Lawrie ) the trade may be less of a steal and more fair.

He had a rough April, as would be expected of a non-dominant rookie pitcher, but after a short demotion, his results have been rather good in May and June.

7 GS, 46.2 IP, 45 H, 12 R/ER, 11 BB, 34 K, 2.31 ERA.

Colabello in the outfield scares me, cancelling out most of his bat - he would look good at 1B in Pittsburgh - I would be okay with a Carrera/Valencia LF platoon until Saunders returns - then Tollenson could be kept as the extra bench player.

I would get rid of Tolleson. What use is another RH bench bat when teams are so reluctant to pitch lefties against us?

That K/BB rate is pretty frightening, though. Swinging at everything has been sort of working for him so far, but once his BABIP comes back down to earth he's probably going to end sporting a sub-.300 OBP. His strikeout rate and walk rate this year are by far the worst of his career. His overall value so far this year is actually very similar to last year's - 1.7 WAR in 282 PA's last year; 1.6 WAR in 277 PA's so far this year.

It's a bit strange.  His K rate is way up, but his line drive rate is way up and his pop-up rate is way down, despite playing in a home park with a lot of foul territory.  My feeling about Lawrie remains the same.  If he stays healthy for a couple of years in a row, he stands a good chance of developing into a star.  That's a big if, in Lawrie's case. 

Donaldson has been great so far.  He has always feasted on left-handed pitching.  In his days with the A's, there was a balanced lineup and he faced LHP a little less than 30% of the time.  With the RH list to the 2015 Blue Jay lineup, he's faced LHP only 18% of the time.  Even with the park adjustments, he's been better than he was on average with Oakland (and he was one of the top three players in the league over 2013 and 2014). 

I gave a thumbs down to the trade, knowing full well how good Donaldson was.  Wrong!

Sounds like Matt Boyd will be called up for this weekend's series. Dropped from today's start.

Yes, all indications are that Boyd will start for the Jays on Saturday -- unless he is being traded.  Otherwise no explanation for the sudden move to pull him from today's Buffalo start.

My feeling about Lawrie remains the same. If he stays healthy for a couple of years in a row, he stands a good chance of developing into a star. That's a big if, in Lawrie's case.

What strikes me about Lawrie versus Donaldson is their similarities - Donaldson has Lawrie's strengths plus a whole lot more. Donaldson has Lawrie's athletic ability at third; Lawrie is flashier, but Donaldson can do that barehanding thing. Both men are fearless, but Donaldson is more durable. Donaldson has more power, and has learned to make adjustments at the plate; Lawrie's power is inconsistent, and he's still learning how to adjust to what pitchers are throwing him.

The A's could still wind up happy with the trade if the pitchers work out and Barreto winds up being useful, but as a Jays fan, I'm happy with the trade right now.

I would get rid of Tolleson. What use is another RH bench bat when teams are so reluctant to pitch lefties against us?

Tolleson is useful if the Jays lose five guys to injury again. He's a replacement level player. Maybe they can stash him in Buffalo in case of emergency.

Colabello in the outfield scares me, cancelling out most of his bat

He's hitting .343, and left field isn't that demanding a defensive position. As long as he keeps hitting, I'm okay with him out there. Pillar can gallop into left-centre to grab fly balls in the gap, so it's all good.

Besides, putting a non-fielding hitter in left field is a time-honoured baseball tradition! (Oh where have you gone, Greg Luzinski?)

My $.02 on Lind: he is a genuine major-league hitter, but he can't hit lefties, his defense is so-so, and he will miss a bunch of games every year with back issues. He was easily replaced by freely available talent (Smoak, Colabello). I don't miss him now.

Steve Delabar is now exactly where Kevin Pillar was in April - he wasn't expected to do much, and has now been given a key role more or less by default. If he can have a good month or two, he could become established as a Proven Closer, which means that he will never have to work as a substitute teacher ever again. Or possibly ever have to work at all after his baseball career is over.

NObody has talked to much about this yet.

Donaldson's catch yesterday was insane. Even though Lawrie is doing well, Donaldson is super studly.

Lots of chatter re: the catch during the game yesterday.

JD is super studly. I only brought up Lawrie's numbers because it was nice to see him start to hit a little, but I am as ecstatic today as I was the day they made the trade. I remember being so confused, like maybe Bean knew something we didn't, and I'm a huge Barreto fan (308/345/538 over the last 28 days in high A).

The catch is the new contender on ESPN's Web Gems. Vote early and often.

Quiz, if anyone's interested. Only 1 player from JPR's 2nd last draft has played in the majors this year - Danny Farquar. Ugh.

How many have played in the majors this year from his last draft?

It's a tricky one.  Do you include players drafted but not signed?

I did, Mike, but it's up to you.

Chad Jenkins, James Paxton, Jake Marisnick, Ryan Goins, Aaron Loup, Yan Gomes, Drew Hutchison, and Ryan Tepera is quite the draft. I also see Jonathan Fernandez (Tony's kid) and local hero Maxx Tissenbaum.

Well done, 92-93, except there's a kid from Paducah.

I don't think I had ever heard of Daniel Webb, which is why I probably skipped right over that name.

Our last Jason Frasor trade (we'd sent Frasor away in the Edwin Jackson swap that became Colby). Reacquired Frasor for Webb and Myles Jaye IIRC.

Hmmm... Given AA keeps talking about starting pitchers are any available that are worth getting?  Checking bad teams.

• Cincinnati (13 1/2 out) Johnny Cueto (Free agent after 2015, 128 ERA+ this year, 123 lifetime, $10 mil), Anthony DeSclafani (pre arb, 110 ERA+, was a Jay but part of the big Miami trade), Aroldis Chapman (reliver, but a killer closer, Not a free agent until 2016/17 winter $8 mil)
• Milwaukee (21 out) no starters worth adding, Francisco Rodriguez in the pen would be sweet $3.5 this year, $5.5 next, $6 or $4 buyout for 2017.
  
• White Sox (11 out) Chris Sale* (not available according to reports, signed through 2019 at a bargain rate), Jeff Samardzija was a hot choice pre-season but 83 ERA+ this year 100 lifetime 125 last year free agent after 2015, David Robertson closer with wow K's/BB rates, $10 mil this, $11 next, $12 2017, $13 2018
  
• Phillies (14 out) Cole Hamels* (in non-stop rumour mill), Aaron Harang (37 makign just $5 mil then free agent, 113 ERA+ after a 102 last year, 99 lifetime), Jonathan Papelbon closer we all know too well by now.

And that covers all 10+ game out teams.

John, why would DeSclafani be available but not Leake?

"Depending on how we value 6 years of cost-controlled Kendall Graveman ( I valued him more or less on par with 3 years of Lawrie ) the trade may be less of a steal and more fair."

Totally agree. In terms of WAR, it's quite likely that the 4 players traded will eventually outpace Donaldson. I think people tend to dismiss Graveman as an afterthought. I think he'll perform just fine with the A's. After Stroman went down, my first thought was damn wish Graveman was still around. I'm not nearly as high on Hutch as some people are here and would've happily traded him instead of Graveman if it meant we also kept Barreto.

That all being said, obviously if those were the pieces required to get Donaldson, it was and always will be the right trade for the Blue Jays to do.

Leake is a free agent next year.

Right, scottt, Leake would be available, doubt they would shop DeSclafani.

Agreed.  I put on Desclafani as he was part of that Miami trade thus a  'oh crap' part.  The Miami trade and NYM trades made sense at the time but boy do they hurt now.  DeSclafani and Syndergaard would be sweet now and d'Arnaud would've been nice to have but might have kept the Jays from signing Martin which would've been a mistake. at this point as d'Arnaud is on the DL again.  One wonders what the Jays look like in a parallel universe where AA wasn't given extra cash before the 2013 season. 

As to Leake I didn't see him as worth chasing.  Sub 100 ERA+ in 4 of his 6 seasons including this year while pulling down nearly $10 mil and a free agent after 2015 with a sub 6 K/9 figure and over 1.0 HR/9 (lifetime & this year).  Holds no appeal to me.  Rather call up a kid and see how he does over getting Leake.

Our rotation should be in good shape when Sanchez returns. He is gaining valuable experience. Hutch is establishing who/what type of starter he is month by month. Estrada has taken a big step up, maybe he can stay there. We have good candidates for a 6th and 7th option if needed. I feel confident someone will grab the opportunity.

If we add to the pen via a trade, I feel strongly that it will be a right handed pitcher. If he is better, equal or close to equal to Osuna or Delabar he is probably going to cost a lot. Both Osuna & Delabar have put up great numbers but their reputations have blemishes. Osuna has no record to speak of and Delabar is bouncing back from last year and this year's demotion.
Hendriks has a really nice role, not too much high leverage situations and he is doing well in that role.

Maybe it will be a lefty for the pen. Either way 1 more arm capable of consistently doing well in high leverage situations is needed to improve the steadiness of the pen.

Good trades: Donaldson, Morrow, and Rasmus.

Bad trades: Marlins, Dickey and Gomes.

Meh: Santos and Happ.

?: Saunders and Estrada.

Live by the gun die by the gun. The only horrible ones were when they tried to go all in.

If you could make all of the trades or none, what would you choose?

Desclafani: 4.53xfip, 4.67siera

they'd be smart to sell now before the regression reaper comes a knockin'.

"If you could make all of the trades or none, what would you choose?"

Can't see how you'd justify choosing "none". In what alternate universe would the Jays have something better than the best run differential in the league this season?

I'm surprised you are calling the Marlins deal a bad one.  And "?" for Estrada?  Weird week to be making that suggestion.

All of the trades, without a second thought.

Don't forget Travis/Gose.

With no trades, the lineup would be:

C- D'Arnaud/Gomes
1B- Smoak/Lind
2B- Goins
SS- Escobar
3B- Lawrie
OF- Bautista, Pillar, Gose, Marisnick
DH- Encarnacion

SP- Hutchison, Happ, Alvarez, Syndegaard, DeScalfini, Nicolino, Stroman, Sanchez
RP- as currently constituted

There would have been a lot of extra cash around, and some of it would undoubtedly have been spent on a free agent shortstop.  It's highly doubtful that you would have ended up with a better team this year had the trades not been made, but it is conceivable that the club would be better in the long run.  We'll see what happens.

Adeiny Hechavarria is a 4 WAR player. They'd be set at SS.

Desclafani: 4.53xfip, 4.67siera

they'd be smart to sell now before the regression reaper comes a knockin'.

Aaron Sanchez: 4.56 xFIP, 4.88siera

Sanchez for Desclafani make sense for the Jays?

Regarding trades, you have to give up value to get value.

R Halladay + $6mil. I definitely do not give up the $6 mil. Halladay was good. Each year he pitched a lot of innings, won many games and was a serious Cy Young contender. His 2010 salary was $15 mil so we saved $9 mil and got 2 v good prospects. I think he was only worth 1 draft pick rather than 2. I do not know how F Cattalanato got us 2 picks. So I do not make that trade.

The Miami trade was a financial weight around our necks. I do not make that trade.

Dickey was similar to the Halladay trade in the trade pieces being some what similar. Dickey helped stack our lineup. This was the expensive piece to put us over the top given the Miami deal. This makes sense to me. I do this trade. Noah S was too much of an unknown to balk at this potential championship piece.

The high upside of Escobar & Lawrie for a reasonable cost, I do those trades. A Gonzales was an easy off season signing, so cheap. Marcum was v good but probably had just a few years left and Lawrie was a developing stud IMO. Great value for a team that is building.

Rasmus cost a lot, maybe he produced enough.

Santos. The Jays should never trade with K Williams. It never works out. We paid Santos his money and got practically nothing. He may have been hurt when we got him. I do not know. D Wells for a damaged M Sirotka was a bad trade. In Santos we did it again.

I see this team as winning 86-94 games. 86 at our current winning % and 94 with a winning % based on 4 more wins as of today. We will know better based on our record a week before the July 31 trade deadline.
You can win the WS as the 2nd WC and nothing as the top team in the league. So getting in is the most important goal.
So I do not make a big trade unless it brings back a good player for long term service. In other words I will take another J Donaldson trade.

Adeiny Hechavarria is a 4 WAR player. They'd be set at SS.

I forgot about Hechavarria, needless to say.  Thanks.

I don't know that he is a 4 WAR player, but he's a decent defender (at least) who hits well enough for a shortstop.  At this point, he does seem likely to be a better player than Reyes. 

"Aaron Sanchez: 4.56 xFIP, 4.88siera

Sanchez for Desclafani make sense for the Jays?"

are you thinking i'm a sanchez fan?

I didn't pay much attention to Jason Kipnis' excellent half-season until today, so I thought that I would look him up. Impressive.  If a second baseman is going to model himself after somebody, Charlie Gehringer is a pretty good choice.  I then looked up Gehringer's age 28 BBRef comps.  No. 2 was Dustin Pedroia.   Kipnis got a later start than Pedroia and Gehringer...

Huh.  Adeiny Hechavarria having a good year.  100 OPS+, 1.4 dWAR (BR) 12.9 UZR/150 - his first positive UZR/150 ever. 1.7 fWAR.  Weird.  If the improvement is real then he is a top shortstop.  If not he is a 'so what'.
Reyes  is at 0.8 fWAR this year with a slight negative UZR/150 mixed with his 91 OPS+ makes this a bad year for him.

Apparently Felix Doubront is in Buffalo today, and Matt Boyd is not.

It will be interesting to see who the starter is tomorrow. I don't think it will be Boyd or Doubrount.

Are we getting a trade today?

In fairness to the Santos deal, Nestor Molina appears to be out of organized baseball, or at least, out of organized baseball to the extent that he will almost assuredly amount to nothing from a productive MLB perspective.  So that's hardly a loss for AA.

I forgot about Hechavarria

I can't see much of anything in Hechavarria's underlying offensive numbers that points to an improvement. His K and BB rates are roughly the same as the past two years, as are his LD and GB rates. His ISO has gone up on the strength of a few additional homeruns but there has been no real improvement in doubles so its hard to know if there really is a mini-power surge at play. His BABIP is the highest its ever been but in keeping with what he did last year.

ZIPS and Steamer both forecast an offensive regression in the second half. Still if Hechavarria is even "just" a 3-win player, there's lots of value there for not a lot of cost.

"If you could make all of the trades or none, what would you choose?"

Well the big issue with the no trade scenario, is that you'd have a 40 man roster issue, so some would have to be traded to remove the log jam or simply lose them for nothing.

However, ignoring the 40 man roster for a moment. If we didn't do any of the trades, we'd be eyes deep in prospects and while we probably wouldn't have the same kind of offence, who knows how the pitching would've turned out. Would certainly have the potential to cull the prospects for a trade. Would be overloaded in OF depth and pitching prospects.

What's this based on?  Why wouldn't you assume that Boyd is starting?

95% chance at least Boyd is starting for us.


As far as the Santos deal, he was a cheaper version of Izturis ($7.5 million vs $10 million), 3 years of net negative WAR. Chicago ended up winning the deal, because Molina saved them over $7 million, plus never occupied a 25 man spot.

Much like my view on the Dickey deal, it was a reasonable trade that just didn't work out. Happens to all teams.

"What's this based on? Why wouldn't you assume that Boyd is starting?"

Maybe drinking the Jeff Blair koolaid *shrug*?

Blair himself said on PTS, that he still felt Doubront would be Saturday's starter, even after Boyd got pulled from his start. And that Boyd was likely trade material and trying to establish a link with the Reds, since they did draft Boyd in 2012 and couldn't get him signed.

I believe this situation calls for Occam's razor though.

If AA's trying to use Boyd as a trading chip, mysteriously holding him back from a start probably isn't a very good move. It would look like they're trying to hide an injury, or were afraid he'd suddenly come apart and lose his value.

They could be lining Boyd's starts up so that he's next in line for that slot.

Devon Travis returns to the lineup and bats ninth tonight.  Colabello at first base and Carrera in left-field means that Justin Smoak sits again.  Colabello's BABIP is at .445, and he has a significant platoon split.  Never mind, he's got the hot hand. 

One reason to think Boyd is starting is that the Blue Jays thought highly enough of him to take him to Montreal, much like they did Sanchez last year.

Another reason is that he has pitched well.

A third reason is that he has options. Doubront doesn't. I think it is very unlikely that they would activate Doubront for one spot start, and then lose Buffalo's most reliable starter this year to waivers. At least if they have any plans to keep a team in Buffalo.

R Halladay + $6mil. I definitely do not give up the $6 mil. Halladay was good. Each year he pitched a lot of innings, won many games and was a serious Cy Young contender. His 2010 salary was $15 mil so we saved $9 mil and got 2 v good prospects. I think he was only worth 1 draft pick rather than 2. I do not know how F Cattalanato got us 2 picks. So I do not make that trade.

It came out after the Halladay deal with Philly (remember, he had a NTC and had to approve any deal), that Halladay demanded a trade and basically told AA that he would only approve a deal to Philadelphia.

AA had no leverage and still managed to make a deal for three very good prospects whom were highly rated, but unfortunately haven't lived up to the hype (D'Arnaud looks like a starter, but also looks super injury-prone).

You can't just say "I wouldn't do the deal because I think the $6 million is unfair". Halladay wasn't going to play again for the Jays and you need to move him. You need to do whatever needs to be done to extract the value you can and move on with team-building, instead of haggling over fair value.

Why did not 'need' to move Halladay, they chose to. It would have been an interesting year if they'd held on to him.

Doc wanted a chance to play in October. Rogers wasted his best years on a non-competing budget.  It would have been cruel and unusual to hold on to him.

I'm not sure if the Brewers would have traded Estrada for Lind if they thought he was a good starting pitcher.  I think most GMs saw Estrada as a swing man, a 6th starter, who could be pressed into the rotation in an emergency but should probably be in the bullpen most of the time as a long man and spot starter.  And while I haven't checked our discussion threads from the off-season, I think most Bauxites were of the same opinion.  I don't recall anyone who said Estrada should definitely be one of the 5 starters in the Jays rotation this year.  Maybe some of us said it, but I don't recall it.  The consensus was:  6th starter, long man, spot starter. Yet as those career numbers suggest, 2014 was an outlier and he should always have been one of the frontrunners for the 5th-starter spot at least.

I did. I thought Estrada should have had the 5th spot as soon as Stroman went down. I actually wanted Sanchez in the bullpen - and I still think that might be the best use for him. I wasn't at all sold on Norris starting in the rotation instead of triple A. Regarding the back of the rotation, I think the standard move is to go with experienced guys and bring in the new talent if/when other guys falter or get injured - and I think it is the correct approach unless you have some sort of phenom who is immediately going to be an elite level starting pitcher.