It hasn't been costly yet tonight, but Colabello's right-angle routes are still hilarious.

More dumb baserunning. This series has been awful.

A year or two ago I suggested trading Pillar and Nolin for Chase Utley, which some people thought was a ridiculously light offer (a reasonable point of view). Right now I'm sure the Phillies would do that deal without thinking twice. Note that Utley's $15M option for 2016 vests with 500 PA this year (he's currently at 232 PA). And Pillar, who is controllable and is getting better, has been worth about 2 WAR more than Utley this year, at about 1/30 the price.

What a bunt!

greenfrog, lucky we held on to Nolin to centrepiece the Donaldson trade.

On a more serious note, Loup seems to have overcome his early struggles and Delabar deserves more high leverage work. He's been excellent the past month.

I feel bad for this Morris kid. No clue why he came in as clearly he was just thrown into this. I think I'll root for this guy whenever the next time he doesn't face us is.

Ryan Goins.

*slow clap

No clue why he came in as clearly he was just thrown into this.

I was just looking at the Game Graphs over at Fangraphs.

I imagine they brought Morris in because the situation was of very low leverage (Leverage index of 0.11, WE of 2.6%) going into the bottom of the 8th down 3-0.

Kind of interesting that giving up five 8th inning runs only decreases your chance of winning by ~2%.

Blue Jays outscore the Mets by 6 through three games, win one, lose two. That's about par for the season.

I can't believe the Jays have a +77 run differential and are only three games over .500. I mean I know how it's happened but it's really weird to think about.

We'll score 12 tomorrow.

Blue Jays outscore the Mets by 6 through three games, win one, lose two. That's about par for the season.

Yep. Outscored them 13-7 so far, and lost two of three. I hope the rest of the season isn't going to keep going like this, because this has been a hella frustrating two and a half months.

I assume tomorrow will be another blowout win or another one run loss.

With Goins as the backup SS/2B, the Jays should have a pretty nifty middle infield when Travis gets back. The ball Goins got to in the 9th was almost equidistant between Goins and Reyes, but when Goins fielded it, Reyes wasn't even in the same area code as him.

Valencia is quietly having a very nice season as a utility player.

I wonder if Stroman will make it back this year. That would give the team a nice boost.

Also, Delabar looked really sharp tonight.

In a sense, the Jays traded Travis Snider for Danny Valencia.

greenfrog, I'm pretty sure if someone asked Chase Utley to approve a trade away from Philly he'd say no. I think if he was asked about being traded from Philly to Toronto he'd suspect it was a practical joke. This is close to suggesting a trade for Derek Jeter a few years ago.

Except Tolleson is almost ready. Goins might have to be optioned. I'd try to trade Tolleson, but not 100% sure if Devon Travis is still going to be the everyday 2B come August.

lucky we held on to Nolin to centrepiece the Donaldson trade

Ha!

The players the Jays sent Oakland really haven't done much so far this year. Lawrie, whom some wanted to award a long-term contract as recently as a year ago, is hovering around 0.7 fWAR and is recovering from a stiff back. Nolin was out of commission for a while and has a 4.71 FIP in AAA. Graveman has a 4.72 FIP, although he has been better over his last few starts. Barreto has a 93 wRC+ in A+ ball (235 PA).

Donaldson, of course, is at about 4 WAR and is a potential MVP candidate.

It would be a shame to waste this offence. We need a Papelbon and a number 2 starter. Is there any untouchables for you in acquiring one of these pieces?

Mark Derosa on the MLB network suggested a Devon Travis/Daniel Norris for Kimbrel/Tyson Ross. Seems too expensive for me what think ye?

I'd wonder with Pompey's slow start if his trade value has decreased.....I'd like to be able to get something done by dangling Pompey/Castro and lower level prospects....Don't want the young ML ready guys dealt....Norris/Travis/Stroman.

I thought Scott Kazmir would be a great target but after looking at his splits the rogers center may turn him into Marco Estrada.

Goins has been fantastic lately.  He has a positive fWAR on the year.  His bat is still a negative but not so bad as to take away all the value his defense provides.  If he did this last year then the Gose/Travis deal probably wouldn't have happened.  Gose is at 0.5 fWAR now (287/329/390 with a negative UZR/150 in CF).  Travis is DL'ed supposidly could rejoin this weekend.  I'd keep Goins around as the backup for SS/2B and mix him in as often as possible moving Reyes to DH for rest (and to make the pitchers happy).

Speaking of Oakland, they have a run differential of +24 but are 10 games under .500. To my mind, that's a team that's poised to break out - if most of your games result in big wins or tight losses, you're giving yourself a chance to win just about every day. And I think both Oakland and Toronto will be better than .500 from here to the end of the season, barring any serious roster changes/health issues. If I'm wrong, at least I enjoyed the cup of tea.

John, What does AA do with Tolleson? Should finish his rehab any day now.

In Seattle, LoMo is playing first base while can he play corner OF ? Some time ago, Jays fans were looking forward to getting Dustin Ackley. With Ackley slumping in recent games, trading Tolleson with Matt Hague to Seattle to get at least Ackley and cash ? Ackley can then play in Buffalo to regain his batting stroke. Tolleson can replace Bloomquist, who can also be a minor part of this trade and hence play in Buffalo. Hague would get his ML chance as a 1B and 3B-man: Donaldson, Colabello, EE are his blocks to Toronto.

In the bigger picture, Ackley is the backup 2B if Devon Travis' development plan falters.

Not to mention between Ackley and Travis, Goins shall take advantage to improve his performance. So a win-win scenario for the Mariners, the Blue Jays, Hague, Tolleson and Goins.

I like Tolleson, but I think he's got another DFA coming. He's behind Reyes, Travis, and Goins, and not far enough ahead of Kawasaki and Santiago to be overly worried about losing him.

The more interesting question is, which pitcher gets bumped when Travis returns? I think it's likely Schultz. He's not clearly less useful than Coke, but Coke is left-handed and can't be optioned.

I'd keep Goins around as the backup for SS/2B

I concur. He's a far more suitable backup infielder than Tolleson, who is really only a second baseman, and whose days are now presumably numbered.

Also, Delabar looked really sharp tonight.

It would be really nice if Delabar could be one of the BP upgrades that it appears AA will not have the money to acquire externally.  He's still stranding 100% of his runners, which won't last, but it's been a nice 15 innings in Toronto so far (with a good 9 before that in Buffalo).  Fingers crossed he keeps itup.

Mark Derosa on the MLB network suggested a Devon Travis/Daniel Norris for Kimbrel/Tyson Ross. Seems too expensive for me what think ye?

Tyson Ross is really freaking good, but I would agree that seems expensive (especially considering what Kimbrel just got traded for).  More the inclusion of Travis, who I think if dealt (which I highly doubt the Jays would do) would need a major league quality 2B coming back in that or another deal.  Also, Kimbrel is expensive.  I just can't see the Jays dealing Travis right now.  If something happens to Reyes, you are looking at a Goins-Kawasaki middle infield.  That's terrifying.

I'd be more interested in adding Ross (if the Padres are selling) and then going and finding cheaper BP help. 

travis still has the most rookie WAR in the AL.

I hope the club takes its time with Travis' rehab.  No pain is very good, but there's no point bringing him before enough of the rust has been shaken off so that he can hit major league pitching.  It may take another week.   I concur with Jonny and Chuck about the middle infield depth chart. 

It should be noted though that the organization had Tolleson at shortstop last night; I suspect they like his bat more than I do and that they may be willing to forgive his defensive limitations.  They did try playing him in left-field earlier this year, and this did not go well.

A propos of our discussion about young people and old people from a couple of days ago, I have a story from last night.  I was out at a nice new club in Toronto called Burdock.  I went to the bar to get a beer and asked the 20-something bearded bartender what was on tap.  He pointed to a list.  One beer I had never heard of caught my eye- "Left Field Maris".  I ordered it and told the bartender why.  He said that he had never heard of Roger Maris.  I explained about Ruthsrecord and how much disdain and abuse Maris received for being the one to break it.  The bartender asked if  Maris was on steroids like Barry Bonds. I shook my head no but the music was starting as I wondered how much more to tell.  I returned to my seat.  Perhaps the bartender will run "Roger Maris" through Google today.

Hillarious.  I once had an entire class of high school students (newcomers, admittedly, but still) tell me they had never heard of the Beatles.  The entire class.

Shameless east-side plug, but Left Field brewery is actually very good - a new, baseball themed brewery off of Greenwood ave.  I haven't tried the Maris - how was it Mike?  But the 6-4-3 and the Eephus (if you like dark) are quite nice, and they have seating and the game on most weekends. 

Barreto, who is 19 in A+, after a slow stat has hit .315/.340/.533 in his last 28 days. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

Barreto was promoted aggressively - from short season all last year to High A, which goes a long way in explaining his slow start. And he's a young 19, doesn't turn 20 till next Feb; he's about 4 yrs younger than the average Cal League player.

Thought: if, at the time of the trade, Beane pie charted the 4 players value we sent for Josh, how would it look?

My guess: Barreto 45%, Lawrie 28%, Graveman 23% Nolin 4%.

I'm not sure why the Mariners would do that.  Tolleson was available on the wire a few weeks back, and I'm not seeing how Matt Hague makes them a better team.

Tolleson is a nice to have guy - not critical.  I'd probably use waives and send him to AAA and if he is lost no big deal.  In the old days of a 15 hitter/10 pitcher roster he'd be very useful and would be on the roster no matter what.  But with 13 hitters at most (sometimes 12) he can be very valuable as he plays everywhere and has a 1/2 decent bat but with Goins for the infield and Carrera/Colabello in the outfield and Valencia around for 3B/1B/OF too there just isn't room.  I'm sure the Jays would like to keep him on the DL as long as possible then hope no one needs a middle infielder when they demote him.

Tolleson was available on the wire a few weeks back????

Don't recall this.


Tolleson has some value, as has been pointed out and he hits LHP really well for an MI.

However, that skill is the last thing the Jays need, although I'm pretty sure there are teams that do.

And that skill of his will be even less useful for the Jays if teams continue hiding lefty starters from us.

BTW - has anyone mentioned what the O's did to Chen?

Barreto's improvement hasn't been as linear as that implies. He had a laughable april (21wrc+), a very good may (142wrc+), and a mediocre june so far (101wrc+).

not sure skipping him past A was a good idea. he would have been young even at that level.

Nevermind; yeah May 5th Tolleson cleared waivers after being DFA'd late April.

Speaking of DFA's, Phillies just DFA'd Dusty NcGowan

my pie chart:

Lawrie 50%
Barreto 25%
Graveman 12.5%
Nolin 12.5%

"The more interesting question is, which pitcher gets bumped when Travis returns? I think it's likely Schultz."

tough call, as schultz has looked real good after that one bad outing, but i agree it's probably him.

though he (and tepera) might have pitched well enough that Coke is on an even shorter leash than we might have thought.

Skipping Barreto to High A Cal League, with a lot of hitter friendly parks is less of a concern than if it was the FSL, IMO.

Average OPS Cal - .730
Average OPS FSL - .652

recap of what our RP look like this year:


1. Osuna: 30.2ip, 2.05era, 2.32fip, 3.67xfip, 3.03siera
2. Hendriks: 30.0ip, 3.00era, 2.44fip, 2.55xfip, 2.60siera
3. Loup: 25.2ip, 3.86era, 3.34fip, 2.91xfip, 2.42siera
4. Cecil: 21.0ip, 3.86era, 4.44fip, 3.09xfip, 2.66siera
5. Delabar: 15.0ip, 1.20era, 3.44fip, 2.92xfip, 2.40siera
6. Estrada: 10.2ip, 0.84era, 3.95fip, 3.91xfip, 3.43siera
7. Tepera: 12.1ip, 2.92era, 4.48fip, 3.73xfip, 3.15siera
8. Coke: 12.0ip, 5.25era, 3.60fip, 3.34xfip, 3.11siera
9. Schultz: 7.2ip, 2.35era, 2.84fip, 4.85xfip, 4.29siera

Tepera's not free and clear of a demotion quite yet but yeah i'd say for now it's schultz v coke for the last spot.

p.s. that's a pretty sweet looking bullpen. and not just numbers - every single guy there throws mid to high 90s with at least one nasty breaking pitch, and none of them have serious command issues.

Mike, Maris* is from Left Field Brewery (http://www.leftfieldbrewery.ca/), a baseball-themed brewery that's now open in the east side (blocks from my house). They have great beers and staff that love baseball. It's pretty cool. They've also sponsored a bunch of the PitchFx events with guests like Jonah Keri and Morgan Campbell.

hypobole - that's why i always use wrc+ - it adjusts to league average. it's invaluable when looking at milb stats imo.

that's a pretty sweet looking bullpen. and not just numbers - every single guy there throws mid to high 90s with at least one nasty breaking pitch, and none of them have serious command issues.

Agreed.  As far as I'm concerned, rotation help is by far the most pressing need.  Although I'd still love a Parra or a Venable type to fill out the roster a little bit more.  I'm genuinely curious to see what AA is going to do...I feel as long as the team is close this year, and he can make the money work, we are going to see a doozy of a deal...his job and Gibbons are both riding on making the playoffs, so I can't see him going down without a fight.

i really think hamels ans papelbon are a perfect fit for us.

unlike most i think their contracts are a benefit to us...in two ways. First, they insure that we have a multi year window. Second, the general tenor in mlb right now is that their contracts are a bad thing, which makes their trade price likely cheaper than even the pure rental guys.

and if you ask me whether next offseason i'd be happy if the jays signed Hamels to a 4yr/$22m deal and Paps to a 1yr/$13m deal, i'd say hell yeah....but know full well that those two would never sign with the jays for that price.

giving up top prospects for those guys would sting if we don't win a world series in the window, but much less than it would for pure rentals.

and none of them have serious command issues.

Steve Delabar, sitting alone in his room, feels a sudden chill. "I'm thinking somebody may have just jinxed me."

the general tenor in mlb right now is that their contracts are a bad thing

I doubt the world view Hamels' contract that way. He's only making a little more than Rick Porcello. Were Hamels a free agent after this season, he'd likely get more than what is left on his current contract.

i agree with that 100%, and maybe its just media driven anti-big contract stuff, but all through any public hamels/Papelbon trade mongering, the general perception seems to be that amaro is crazy to ask for top prospects in return.

For Hamels and Papelbon...if it's Castro/Boyd, Nay/Dean, plus Lugo or another lower level prospect then yes. Anything more than Castro/Boyd then I want them to eat salary and a lot of it.

I think Norris is untouchable prospect. He's our only legit LHP.

Ok,

I wonder if Tolleson, Hague and more assets can turn into Francisco K-Rodriguez from the Brewers. Aramis Ramirez is aging; Hague can take advantage of Ramirez' slumping batting. Scooter Gennett, Hernan Perez are either slumping in batting of just not ready against MLB pitching. K-Rod has 14 saves so far, not to mention Canadian Jim Henderson who had been a MLB closer is playing for Brewers AAA team.

Maybe adding Wilton Lopez for Josh Roenicke, for completing the puzzle of a past trade. Jays had received with EE, Zach Stewart and Roenicke for Scott Rolen. Lopez has yet to pitch in Buffalo ? Roenicke perform okay so far this season: maybe a change of teams would help their performances.

So my idea is the following:
Tolleson, Hague, Bobby Korecky, assets(cash?) for K-Rod, Henderson

For Brewers,
Tolleson is the 2B against LHSP: Gennett would be sent back to minors; Perez would be DFA'ed
Hague is going to play 3B, taking PAs from Ramirez.

For BlueJays,
K-Rod is the obvious choice for closing
Henderson replaces Korecky in Buffalo and is the emergency call-up if the Jays needs a late-inning pitcher while regaining his pitching.

KRod i'd be scared of. he's not even throwing 90 anymore, and he was really bad last year.

its just media driven anti-big contract stuff

I think Hamels' contract was a big one when he signed it, but given the recent inflation, it ain't so big any more. And this gives Amaro the legitimate right to ask for a big haul back. The Hamels contract is not one that Amaro needs to unload just to be rid of it.

Now, the Papelbon one is another matter. When you're the worst team in baseball, you probably don't need an expensive, top shelf closer (especially one who grumbles so openly about not wanting to be there). There you look for two possible types of trades. A decent player back with Amaro eating some of the contract, or a bag of peanuts back with Amaro eating none of the contract.

Amaro could well be asking for too much back for each of Hamels and Papelbon and for that reason, nothing might happen. But his strategies for unloading the two players would seem very different in my mind.

I'm not sure where the idea that Matt Hague (or for that matter Steve Tolleson) has any real trade value has come from, but I don't think there's much merit to it. In a seller's market, the Brewers will be able to get more for K-Rod than a 29-year-old Triple-A corner infielder.

They have no incentive to take that offer over a live arm in low-A.

What about Cueto/Chapman? If the Jays are going to have Stroman, Norris and maybe Osuna in the rotation next year, they might not need Hamels so badly in 2016 and beyond. Of course, the Reds might well want one of those arms in exchange for Cueto/Chapman.

In any event, it's likely that none of the players we're discussing will get dealt for another month or so.

Hague can take advantage of...

Please explain why ANY major league team is going to trade anything of significance for what would be a soon-to-be 30-year old rookie third baseman. This type of thing just doesn't happen. Teams that are rebuilding want to give jobs to young players who can grow.

Tolleson and Hague are what is known as freely available talent. Anyone who wants to open up a spot on the 40-man roster can have them. For nothing. And if not them, players just like them. Their trade value is nil.

That's not what I meant though. Barreto, would look at basic stats if at all. It's just that more hitter friendly environments would have less of a negative impact on a young (or for that matter any) hitters psyche. See: Seattle;Safeco.

He hits a HR or a double off the wall in Cal, it would definitely raise his spirits. If he hit a ball just as squarely and far in the FSL, only to watch it die at the track, there is no way he could be just as upbeat about it - just basic human nature.

I think I might actually prefer a gamble on Broxton rather than K-Rod.  Although K-Rod has seemingly reinvented himself a bit to compensate for the loss of his fastball, so he may be able to continue to survive without it.

Players like Hague are sometimes sold for cash.

Tolleson may or may not have trade value, depending on other teams needs. He is signed to a major league contract and does have a couple of major league skills so he is more than Hague. My estimation is his type is usually traded for "PTBNL or cash".

A trade for Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon would be interesting.  Both having good years.  Covers the 2 big needs (ace & closer) but expensive in $$$ ($23.5 mil a year for Hamels through 2018 with option 2019).  It would certainly set off a bomb in the clubhouse in a good way.

The question is what is the cost?  Hamels would be expensive, but their GM isn't thought of as the brightest bulb.  So lets guess - he needs ML ready talent so don't waste time with A ball prospects.  I suspect Norris would be a key part, maybe Pompey, Miguel Castro, Matt Boyd would be the names mentioned by the Phillies as they are all ML ready or very close to it.  I could see sending all 4 of them to get a true ace and closer for multiple seasons.  Expensive but might be worth it.  I'd expect AA to try to do no more than 2 of that group and 2 lower level prospects.

Disagree, John. Amaro is not stupid, or Gillick would have canned him already. He's made a lot of aggressive moves that have backfired (sometimes through no fault of his own like Roy and Cliff) spent money like a hacker with someone else's credit card number, and way late to the sabermetric party.

That said, the organization knows this is not a quick rebuild. Major league ready talent is worse than better prospects in lower levels in one way - years of control are lost while the team is floundering, less of a problem for a rich team like Philly than say if Tampa was rebuilding, but a negative nonetheless. Not saying they would neccessarily turn down major league ready, but it certainly wouldn't be on their priority list.

To add to the Tolleson type of trade, John Mayberry for Gustavo Pierre comes to mind.

Doubt that Schultz will be sent down. Keep the better pitcher whether right or left handed and Schultz is clearly more effective than Coke.

i would guess a deal for Hamels/Paps would garner one of the prize kids (hutch, sanchez, norris, hoffman, osuna, travis, pompey) another good prospect (castro pentecost harris alford urena tellez) and a couple more depth prospects.

something around there.

and yeah i think we can afford that.

Tolleson was outrighted already this year, meaning he cleared waivers. I think this speaks volumes about his trade value (which is still higher than Hague's).

The way I remember the narrative, early in the season, teams have full rosters and players haven't had a chance to really stink up the joint and players are relatively healthy. You can sneak guys through waivers early on, especially niche guys like Tolleson.

Now things are more clear - Neil Walker of the Pirates is hitting .143/.211/.171 vs lefty pitching and they are contenders. If they have a spot on the bench, Tolleson would be a definite upgrade. Might get a C- prospect for him. Or cash.

Yeah, that probably looks like the right structure, Ugly. From the first group, I'd be hoping it'd be Hutchison since he still hasn't established himself, and only has 3 more years of control. He's tantalizing, but at this point he gets blown out and/or runs up his pitch counts too often to be considered as anything more than a #4 right now. Also, this conveniently would open a slot in the rotation for Hamels.

I'll eat cuttlefish for a month if we get Hamels. He doesn't want to come here, other teams want him, and AA may not have the budget to pay his contract.

Most probable is Paps. Hopefully Soriano is lights out for Cubs and other contenders closers stay healthy and effective. FG's Sullivan thought middling prospect + Philly eating cash, Bowden thinks Pentacost + Philly eating cash.

Sullivan had him going to Cubs though so I assume Cubs would not require as much cash to be eaten as we would.

...early in the season, teams have full rosters...

You're right that it's easier to scoot someone through waivers early in the year (though I think that's normally after a couple weeks, not so much at the end of April), and you're right that the time could create needs. Pittsburgh isn't in need, though, with both Sean Rodriguez and Kang on the roster. San Diego, maybe, because of their horrid infield, but Tolleson isn't a great match there because of his inability to play short in anything more than a pinch.

Colabello's actually the NRI-type who may have actually built up a touch of trade value. He actually looks decent at 1B, and the Cardinals lost Matt Adams a few weeks ago. There might be something that could work there, and my heart rate could do without seeing him in LF again.

he might refuse to come here but i doubt it if we're in contention and paps is coming along with him.

as for budget, that's really only a 2 month issue. with buehrle and dickey expiring, he has plenty of budget the nedt few years.

I've read multiple stories that Hamels will not come to Toronto, so I'm not holding my breadth & besides I highly doubt Toronto has the money - I'll bet the house that he doesn't come here - Incidentally, he was the guy (high ceiling HS pitcher) I wanted J.P to draft back in 2002 when he selected Russ Adams.

Forgot about the stories saying Hamels doesn't want to come here.  Wouldn't put it past Philly to make a deal and force him to use his no trade clause and make it public knowledge that he refused a trade if things are getting ugly down there.  Given the Jays actions about budgets I can see issues with that too so odds are against it but it seemed a nice 'one stop shopping' trade which could benefit both teams.

You're right, Spiffi, except it's Rodriquez and Harrison spelling 2nd, with Kang at 3B/SS. They've got more than enough MI's.

"I've read multiple stories that Hamels will not come to Toronto, "

sure but they all have the same source story.

and not wanting to come here when it looked like he might be going to a contending boston team might be a lot different than not wsnting yo now.

not that i respect his opiniom overmuch but bowden floated some trade ideas today:

To TOR: SP S.Kazmir, T.Clippard
To OAK: SP M.Castro, CF A.Alford, C D.Jansen, SP S.Reid-Foley

for me this is a nonstarter. I like both those guys but i wouldn't feel great about pencilling in either as our #1 sp or rp, which i think we'd need at least one of for that price. Sure we don't give up any of our A kids but those are four solid B kids that could all be A very soon.

To TOR: SP Harang, RP Papelbon
To PHI: C M.Pentecost

this one i think the value is fine. i might do it. but i wouldn't love it and it would still leave us needing better SP. not a bad trade but not a solution either.

To TOR: SP J.Cueto, RP A.Chapman
To CIN: SP D.Norris, SS R.Urena, RP L.Hendriks, RP J.Labourt

now here's a deal that works for me. pretty much exactly the price i outlined above - one A kid (norris) one B kid (urena) and two depth guys. i would do this trade for sure. i would do it for hamels/paps too. cueto/chapman would make us better this year, but hamels/paps would make us better for longer.

Question. Would you offer Bautista and Encarnacion extensions? Say Bautista $60M/3 and Encarnacion $80M/4 bearing in mind payroll parameters. On the other hand, would Bautista and Encarnacion accept something like that?

May not need Hamels, we're already in the playoffs, according to Tony Blengino at Fangraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-wild-woolly-and-mediocre-al-2015-edition/

If only it were this simple.

That seems like a fair (if steep) price for Cueto and Chapman. I think it depends how the Jays value Norris. If they think he's going to be an above-average starter in the majors, they would be giving up a lot of controllable SP years for a half-season or so of Cueto. And Chapman is about to get expensive, and while his K numbers remain very impressive, he has walked a lot of batters this year.

I see the Hamels and Cueto/Chapman sweepstakes as likely continuing until mid- or late July.

Much as I would like to see the Jays pull a David Cone and land one of those arms (without giving up too much, of course), a lesser, "value," move or two seems more likely to me.

I'm with Mike concerning Edwin. In fact, if Colabello and Smoak continue to impress, I'd give very serious thought to trading Edwin this offseason.

As a charter member of the "fix the bullpen" club, dating back to the off-season, I have to admit that the bullpen is looking okay at this point.  And as Bauxites have rightly pointed out, the rotation has to be the bigger priority now.  With Sanchez still recovering from his lat strain or whatever it is, Scott Copeland has been confirmed as the starter for Sunday's game.  It's rather dismaying that a journeyman like Copeland is starting at least 3 consecutive games in the middle of the season, after all that off-season effort to build rotation depth with Estrada etc.   Are we back to the days of Aaron Laffey and Chien-Ming Wang?  Of course the injuries to Stroman and Sanchez are the main reason why the depth has disappeared.  But unless Norris improves in a hurry, nobody else in the system is knocking on the door. (Boyd might soon, but it's too early to tell.)    It's disappointing that the entire remainder of the Buffalo rotation (Wolf, Doubront, Albers etc) have turned out to be unworthy of the major leagues -- at least according to the Jays scouts, who must be watching those guys closely. 

For what it's worth, Anthopoulos seems to agree that the rotation must be his priority for upgrading now.  He apparently said this quite openly in a TSN interview today. Easier said than done, but I hope he gets very serious about it soon.

Much as I would like to see the Jays pull a David Cone and land one of those arms (without giving up too much, of course), a lesser, "value," move or two seems more likely to me.

Much as I'd love Hamels (I like that it's not a rental), yeah, it's probably going to be a more reasonably priced arm. I'm personally keeping my eye on Samardzija and Latos (if he can maintain most of his velocity spike from his last start) to see if they can revert to form, in an effort to find this year's McCarthy.

It's rather dismaying that a journeyman like Copeland is starting at least 3 consecutive games in the middle of the season, after all that off-season effort to build rotation depth with Estrada etc.

I'm fine with Copeland. He pitches to contact and needs a good defense behind him, but as long as he keeps the  ball in the park, he should give the team a chance to win.

Baseball Reference scores Copeland 0.3 WAR for the season. Same as Colabello.

The squawking about the strike zone needs to stop.  It's true that some of the calls have been off, but more than half of the complaints have been about good calls. 

Baseball Reference scores Copeland 0.3 WAR for the season.

And if his 2.57 ERA were anywhere close to his real level of ability, you'd have others on your bandwagon.

Don't forget that Cone cost a guy who might be in the HOF someday in the midst of his rookie year.  If the Jays trade for an ace it will cost and it'll hurt.

Solid inning right there!

The squawking about the strike zone needs to stop.

In the Book of Durocher, one is advised thus:

"You argue with the umpire because there's nothing else you can do about it."

Verily, verily.

Fortunately a 7-0 lead usually stops squawking pretty fast.

By the way, I found the "Maris" a bit bland.  I'll give the "Eephus" and "6-4-3" a shot sometime soon.   I had no idea about the brewery- westsider all the way and cross Yonge Street less than five times a year. 

There might not be anything else they can do about it, but it's not without some merit - the zone definitely seems to have a bit more width for the pitchers that aren't throwing a knuckleball tonight.

Regardless of how the ump is calling it the knuckleball has a shutout going and the non-knuckleballers have given up 7.

And that ends up being the best way to respond... by punishing the baseball for the atrocities of the umpire. That seems fair.

"....Baseball Reference scores Copeland 0.3 WAR for the season. Same as Colabello....."

Copeland has had one good start (against a bad team) and one bad start.  He's also pitched a grand total of 3 innings from the bullpen.  If that's enough to get you a 0.3 WAR, there's something wrong with the methodology. 

westsider all the way and cross Yonge Street less than five times a year. 

Aww, Mike.  You cross Yonge Street *fewer* than five times a year, man.  You know that. (I grew up in the west end of town myself, and I know that -- even though I’m now on the other side of Yonge.) 

I can't blame the beer for that one, Dewey.  Thank you for the correction.

I'd consider moving Encarnacion before the deadline if we could use the prospects to add a front-line starter, provided we're relatively healthy.

Reports of Dickey's obsolescence appear to have been slightly exaggerated.

And if his 2.57 ERA were anywhere close to his real level of ability, you'd have others on your bandwagon.

Well, in 7 starts in Buffalo he's got 1.97 ERA. I'm not saying he'll maintain that at Rogers center, but anybody you bring from the NL could potentially run into trouble there as well. Or end up in the DL for the rest of the year.

I am hereby retracting my foolish idea of demoting Dickey to the bullpen.

Game scores this series:

Syndergaard 73
Dickey 70

Looks like someone got a bit fired up by Thor's start on Monday.

Copeland has had one good start (against a bad team) and one bad start.  He's also pitched a grand total of 3 innings from the bullpen.  If that's enough to get you a 0.3 WAR, there's something wrong with the methodology. 

The methodology is fine. A bad start with no homer is really not that bad, especially if it all combine to an ERA+ of 150.
The leading pitchers in WAR are Osuna and Sanchez at 0.8 both. Buehrle is at 0,6.

And if his 2.57 ERA were anywhere close to his real level of ability, you'd have others on your bandwagon.

Except real ability isn't a fixed point, even though we treat it that way.

Kendall Graveman had the real ability of a college senior getting drafted because he would sign for $5000.

Jesse Chavez for years had AAAA real ability - we saw that in his time here

Edwin, Yan Gomes and lots more, both positive and negative.

Maybe Copeland is a AAA guy, a AAAA guy, or maybe more. Odds are massively against him being a long term Sub 3 ERA guy in the majors, odds are against him being a sub 3 ERA after his next start, but there is no way any of us know what actually is his "real level of ability".


.

Except real ability isn't a fixed point, even though we treat it that way.

Okay, okay. I wasn't trying to inspire an epistemological debate. I was just saying that trumpeting a man's WAR after 14 innings might be a tad premature. Let's all meet again 14 innings from now and see where we are on the continuum of real ability.

Rays seem to be on the cutting edge of biomechanical technology.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--mlb-team-enlisting-potentially-revolutionary-technology-to-study-pitching-154837850.html

So, according to something, the Cardinals have the best odds to win the World Series at 14.4%.  The Blue Jays are second at 12.0%, just ahead of the Royals (11.9%).  The non-Sox divisional rivals are ~3% each.

Just sayin'.

Regarding Bowden trade proposals

As the Blue Jays continue to bash opposing pitchers and then having their own pitchers be struggle, the call will get louder that we need pitching.

On one hand we hear that we need to let our prospects develop and see which ones deliver on the promise of being regulars, even perhaps stars. The other side we also hear that we're wasting Bautista/EE best years and this is our window of opportunity while the East is ripe for the picking.

Given that AA has already twice sort of emptied the farm to get top pitching and have it either backfire or not produce the desired results, I hope he approaches the potential trades cautiously. Trading for pitchers is a risky proposition and especially for NL pitchers who haven't had time in the AL.

The examples:

1) Samardzija and Hammel for Russell, McKinney, Straily. Beane had to take his shot, but it didn't work out and he wound up sending Samardzija off for a package considerably less than what he paid originally

2) Dickey for D'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Becerra. Almost everyone thought it was an overpay at the time. But the old adage in for a penny, in for a pound applies here. This was the trade after the Marlins trade that was suppose to put them over the top. Wouldn't we all want a mulligan on that trade today.

3) Johnson, Reyes, Buehrle for Alvarez, Escobar, Hechavarria, Marisnick, Nicolino, DeSclafani. While this trade most would do again, the various pieces that the Blue Jays gave up became useful MLB players (Nicolino still a prospect). Had Alvarez continued progressing instead of being DL'ed for a while, maybe would've regretted this one as well. But the main target Johnson became pretty much useless for the Blue Jays' run of 2013.

The point is that trading for pitchers is a very risky proposition. AA hasn't been successful in his first 2 attempts, maybe 3rd time's a charm. However, that Cueto/Chapman trade is the typical high risk high reward. The Blue Jays who always seem to draft pitching, because you can never have too much pitching, should try to enjoy the fruits of labour by letting the prospects (Norris, Boyd) develop and see if they can have an impact on this season before shipping them off. As amazing as this offence is, I want to see some separation beyond .500 mark before potentially once again mortgaging the future by trading for that Ace.

I think we have to understand that the Jays are still owned by Rogers, and are not likely to be adding a ton of salary in the middle of the season.

I'm guessing Cueto ends up with the Yankees. He's got a big salary, and even with a new president coming, I doubt AA Jays would empty the cupboard for a guy who is going to bolt as a FA at the end of the season. The competition for him will be ridiculous. Pass.

I think Chapman would be a terrific pickup, a cheaper upgrade, and much more realistic to acquire. The walks this season scare me a little, but it's a decent trade-off especially looking at the strikeouts he racks up and his ability to not allow home runs (holy crap, only 15 allowed in his ENTIRE career.)

Carlos Gomez would be another major upgrade, and may not
cost a boatload since he's a free agent after next year. It would finally end the Kevin Pillar everyday player thing, and that would just be fine and dandy with me.

But Pillar's been good and looking even better recently. Getting a new OF would probably (or should) mean an end to Colabello in the OF rather than Pillar. And that would be just fine. LF's probably the biggest area for improvement outside of the starting rotation.

and if you ask me whether next offseason i'd be happy if the jays signed Hamels to a 4yr/$22m deal and Paps to a 1yr/$13m deal, i'd say hell yeah

Hamels definitely offers surplus value at that price, but Papelbon? Unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers, you should be trying to limit your entire bullpen to $13M, never mind one player. Anthopoulos has been really smart with this.

Smarter base-running and a Valencia play and this could easily be a 15 game win streak.

I mentioned a few weeks ago, with the 1B/DH logjam, if the jays scouts think that Colabello & Smoak can keep producing - when Saunders returns, the jays should put EE on the block, maybe a 3 way deal to get pitching - have Smoak/Colabello/Valencia share 1B/DH.

Re: Edwin

I assume the push to get rid of Edwin that seems to be growing around these parts is due to the fact that he's only 13% above league average this year, rather than 50, 44, and 50 over 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively.  Maybe let's not be so quick to run that guy out of town.  Remember how hard it is to get guys who like playing in Toronto?  Well, here's one who seems to not only love it, but appreciates the fact that the organization gave him and extended chance.

Oh yeah, and Josh Donaldson's bat this year is about what Edwin has done each of the last THREE.  So maybe let's hold off creating a massive hole in the middle of our lineup just because he's not as stupidly insanely good as he's been for the last 3 years.  Yet.

I don't get the people pushing to get rid of Pillar or make him a backup.  Every time i look he seems to do another highlight reel on defense and get his butt on base when needed.  Yeah thta 88 OPS+ is low but his WAR is at 2.1 already.  That is a guy worth $15+ mil a year who is making the minimum.  You won't improve on that easily.  I say just leave him in CF for the season and enjoy.  This team is buried in bangers who can't field so having a fielder who is 'meh' with the bat is not a bad thing to have in CF.  Having him and Goins on the field at the same time probably makes pitchers feel much happier.

Personally, I'm not anti-Edwin. His defensive profile does cause some roster challenges, though, that weigh a bit against his offensive achievements. I'd only be willing to deal him if he helped bring in a good pitcher, and even then I'd be trying to replace most of his offensive performance in a second move with a LH bat that's less defensively challenged. Josh Reddick was a hope of mine before the Saunders pickup, and may be an option again in some form of 4-headed OF rotation down the line (with the vacated DH spot). Overall, though, it's not a matter for me to fuss about, and more of a potential opportunity.

Jevant, you make it sound like we want to DFA the guy.

As you pointed out, he's been one of best hitters in baseball for a number of years. There are teams that need Edwin's bat a lot more than the Jays. And if they value Edwin as much as you, the Jays should get a healthy return in trade, return that can be used to plug into an area of greater need for our club, or used to help acquire a needed player.

IF Smoak or Colabello are for real and especially if both are for real, there will be no massive hole.

There is also the issue of his positional inflexibility. He's a great DH, but poor to unusable elsewhere. This hinders using the DH spot to give guys like Reyes and Jose those half-days off.

And finally, he's a FA after next year and should command a healthy contract for his decline phase. Will AA pay or will we be outbid in free agency with the only return being a draft pick in the #30 range?

It started with MatO's question- " would you offer Encarnacion a long-term contract at 4/80?". Answering "no" to that question is not the same as being "anti-Edwin" or wanting to get rid of him.  He has an option year for 2016 at $10 million and I would pick up the option.

Encarnacion becomes a 10/5 guy in a couple of weeks, which renders the discussion moot anyway. Doubt he wants to be traded.

"....Maybe Copeland is a AAA guy, a AAAA guy, or maybe more. Odds are massively against him being a long term Sub 3 ERA guy in the majors...."

It's true that Copeland has been an effective groundball pitcher who has shown flashes of being useful in his two starts this year.  So why am I skeptical?  When I remarked that Copeland is a "journeyman," I think I was alluding to his lack of "pedigree" -- which seems to be an important factor in helping determine which pitchers will have long-term success in the rotation.  It's different from the bullpen.  We've all seen unheralded pitchers who end up having success in the bullpen.  In the current bullpen, everyone except Osuna and Cecil was an unheralded pitcher who was acquired on waivers, or was a low-round draft pick, or was obtained in trade for a fringe player.  Over the past few years, the Jays have shown that you can build a decent bullpen from mostly obscure pitchers.  But the rotation seems different.  Everyone in the current rotation, and the likely future rotation, is either a top-round draft pick or was acquired at significant cost on the trade market, or -- in the case of Drew Hutchison -- had rocketed up through the minor leagues and arrived in the majors at a young age with high expectations.  In other words, "pedigree" seems to be required for most of the top starters that the Jays have developed or acquired in the past few years.  (Romero and Morrow are similar examples.)  In most cases, a successful rotation pitcher on the Blue Jays is someone who showed a stellar record as an amateur or in the minors at a young age.  They haven't turned themselves from unheralded 27-year-olds into regular starting pitchers, although some have turned themselves into regular bullpen members.  The journeymen who have been pressed into the rotation (Laffey, Wang etc) have rarely managed to evolve into regular starters.  It's not an absolute rule -- there are many exceptions around the majors, of course, and there are even the freak cases of unsuccessful pitchers who reinvent themselves as knuckleballers as Dickey did -- but it still fuels my skepticism about the 27-year-old Scott Copeland, a 21st-round draft pick who didn't even reach the AA level until he was 26 and didn't show much success until the past year or two of his career.

So, am I right or wrong?  Does "pedigree" matter in the rotation?  Is it extremely rare for a journeyman to turn into a regular starter in the majors?  Is it plausible that Copeland could do it, or would it be an extremely unlikely scenario, given his lack of "pedigree"?

"So, am I right or wrong? Does "pedigree" matter in the rotation?"

This is an interesting question, anecdotally I would concur that it seems more rare to hear about a starter coming out of nowhere whereas relief pitchers or batters can achieve success at later stages, even if they were not successful earlier on.

For a starters, it seems like you were either a high draft pick that got many chances to finally get your act together or a pick that wasn't touted but always had success at the MILB level.

I ran a Play Index to see if I get a sense of how often late-blooming pitchers made it.  I used the period 1980-2015 and looked at pitchers who threw 50 innings in a season for the first time at age 27 or later.  I ignored those who came over from Japan and Cuba (Iwakuma and Arocha, for example).  There were four pitchers of some note- Steve Sparks, Doug Corbett, Steve Farr and Scott Kamienecki.   The odd thing is that I thought of Woody Williams and Play Index didn't give me his name although he seems to qualify.  This worries me a bit because I wonder if there are some other pitchers who I didn't think of off the top of my head that Play Index also missed for some reason.

So, I have two pitchers who turned out to be useful starters (Kamienecki and Williams, plus the knuckleballer Sparks who really isn't germane to the discussion) and two who turned out to be useful (Doug Corbett) or better (Steve Farr). The thing is that there were only 20 pitchers in the entire sample and some of them from Japan and Cuba went on to decent careers.  It's a pretty good success rate when you look at it that way. If Copeland pitches well enough that they give him 50 innings, his chances of being somewhat decent for a few years are probably not that much different than if he was 24 and was a coming off a fairly good season in double A. 

If you haven't already heard, Dickey on the bereavement list and Kawasaki up. Dickey's father passed this week, so my condolences to him and his family.

It certainly makes last night's pitching performance even more impressive.

I like your explanation CF.
I agree with pedigree. Things have changed Aaron Nola & Jon Harris if they had signed with the Jays when 1st drafted as HS picks would not have that high draft pedigree. But they actually did have "something", "stuff" I guess.

I really like R Borucki as a low pick candidate to do well. But injuries will probably ruin that, you never know.

In my mind pedigree matters most to least: Hitters, Starters, Relievers.

Absolutely.

Apropos of nothing in particular, and noting the usual small sample size warning, take a gander at Pillar's monthly stats:

April: 23G, 9 XBH, 3 SB (no CS), 11 RBI, .273/.297/.398, .315 BABIP
May: 29G, 5 XBH, 4 SB (1CS), 6 RBI, .181/.237/.257, .214 BABIP
June: 15G, 4 XBH, 3 SB (no CS), 15 RBI, .393/.407/.571, .404 BABIP

So, the BABIP gods were vengeful on Pillar in May, and rather benevolent so far in June.

I think a cheap CF that plays spectacular defense with .700 OPS (give or take) and is a good baserunner is a valuable asset for the Blue Jays. I'm sure the pitching staff appreciates his presence in the field.

Just noticed Copeland has outperformed his FIP every year and at every level (6 stops total) since the Jays picked him in 2012.

He doesn't knuckleball like Dickey, he not a 6'10" pop-up inducer like Chris Young - guessing he's more a slop-baller like Buehrle. Is it skill or luck?

Fangraphs' splits drill down to batted ball data per month.  For Pillar, they show much more hard contact, many more line drives and much less pulling in June, a lower K percentage and a much higher HR/FB rate.  With Pillar, it is all about hitting the ball where it is pitched.  He's definitely been lucky in June, but there is clearly more to it than that. 

Allegedly Blair was talking about a potential Norris for Papelbon deal on his show this morning. That strikes me as a massive overpay.

".....The thing is that there were only 20 pitchers in the entire sample...."

Which again suggests how rare it is for late-blooming pitchers to have enough success to log 50 innings in a major-league season. Scott Copeland is definitely up against the odds.   But he still has a chance to defy the odds and become a successful starter -- it shouldn't be entirely ruled out.    (Thanks for running those stats, Mike.)

So, the BABIP gods were vengeful on Pillar in May, and rather benevolent so far in June.

And the gods of scoring decisions are also smiling what with Pillar having gotten credit for a hit on a dropped line drive directly at the shortstop's glove. Didn't see the play, just the highlight, so don't know if the broadcast team had anything to say about the decision.

Copeland, Copeland, Copeland (Marcia, Marcia, Marcia)...

Interesting factoid. He has not given up a homerun in at least his last 84.2 innings (plus however many innings back into his AA stint in 2014). That's insane.

Copeland seems like a lower rent version of Kendall Graveman. This is not to say that he can't succeed in the majors (nothing is that cut and dried), just that his work is cut out for him since I see Graveman's "pitch to contact" shtick as already pushing the envelope.

* Copeland is 3 years older.
* Copeland's minor league rates are 0.6/3.4/6.0 (HR/BB/K).
* Graveman's, in a third the innings, are 0.2/2.1/6.0.

Still, though, if Copeland has magically figured out how to not give up homeruns, ever, that changes the calculus.

"....In my mind pedigree matters most to least: Hitters, Starters, Relievers...."

Interesting point.  Still, if you look at the Jays roster this year, many of its hitters didn't have much pedigree at the age of 22 or 23.   Consider these guys: Pillar, Travis, Colabello, Goins.  All of them were pretty unheralded until they reached the high minors, and even then were somewhat underrated. I'm sure there are other examples too.  (Of course we can argue about whether Colabello and Goins will actually have a successful major-league career or whether they'll remain as fringe players, but they've been useful to the Jays this year.)

Funny how it seems no one has mentioned Maicer Izturis Likely Out For Year After Shoulder Surgery thus ends the Izturis era in Toronto.  118 games, 601 OPS, -0.7 bWAR, $10 million.  Ouch.  I remember it seemed like a good idea at the time.

I was going to ask about the brief interruption in 2010 for EE's service time but this tweet answered my question:

https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/606893371492155394

"....In my mind pedigree matters most to least: Hitters, Starters, Relievers...."

Interesting point.  Still, if you look at the Jays roster this year, many of its hitters didn't have much pedigree at the age of 22 or 23.   Consider these guys: Pillar, Travis, Colabello, Goins.  All of them were pretty unheralded until they reached the high minors, and even then were somewhat underrated. I'm sure there are other examples too.  (Of course we can argue about whether Colabello and Goins will actually have a successful major-league career or whether they'll remain as fringe players, but they've been useful to the Jays this year.)

Then how about 1B/3B Matt Hague. What do pedigree and unheralded mean for his many minor league seasons ? Like Colabello et al. are useful to the Jays this season, Hague has been on Jays' 40-men roster for more than a year. If Valencia is to be traded (to the Giants for example), would Hague get his chance in Toronto ?

Andy Burns is an infielder but in recent Bisons' games he has been the starting leftfielder; does this shift of defensive position mean he would play leftfielder if called up to Toronto ?

Cyber, I'm as much a fan of the underdog longshot as anyone, but come on man.  Matt Hague COULD be Chris Collabello, who in turn COULD be ... uh, i dunno.  Is there a precedent for guys that age becoming legit regulars? 

But what you keep missing is that it's really, really rare for an unheralded minor league vet to suddenly become a big leaguer.  AAAA guys often have a weakness - can't catch up to a big league fastball / breaking pitch, easy to get out down and away - a weakness that AAA pitchers can't always exploit but the big leaguers can adjust to and hammer on. 

as for Hague in TO, ML ABs are far to valuable for contenders to waste them on maximizing assets - Hague has been on the 40 man as an emergency / depth option, nothing more.  Perhaps he gets a September call-up as a reward for his admittedly great AAA season, but even that is doubtful.  that .433 OBP sure is impressive though.  

Burns is playing the OF for the same reason that Goins did, or Valencia played 2b - bench players need to be ultra-versatile in this day of 7/8 man bullpens.  for a guy like Burns, his only chance in the bigs is as a utility player.  Heck, Jonathan Diaz played the OF yesterday in AAA, and he's an elite defensive SS. 

CF, I would assume defensive ability is where pedigree matters most. Goins and Pillar derive their value when they are not hitting, though hopefully that's changing with Pillar.

Blair is an idiot. He rails on and on about trading Norris every day and has been doing so for a month. Yes, it would be a massive overpay and won't happen. I saw Papelbon yesterday against Orioles and he looked good......but no better than has Delabar in his last few outings.

Good little read on Martin and Donaldson changing the Jays clubhouse culture.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13108340

BTW, when I read this on ESPN's MLB page the next story down was Panda's Instagram idiocy (though it doesnt seem to come up that way when the link is used). Quite the juxtaposition.

Lastly, what do these 2 things have in common? Escobar Eyeblack/Sandoval Instagram. Hint: Initials JF and he's living his dream.

AL Lowest ERA in June - Jays 2.72.

random replies:

1. i wouldn't think of trading EE. there is no way we get the value back that a cheap elite hitter like EE gives us.

2. imo Copeland cannot be more than a stopgap pete walker type.

3. imo norris for paps is crazy. norris for hamels or cueto is not.

CF, I would assume defensive ability is where pedigree matters most. Goins and Pillar derive their value when they are not hitting, though hopefully that's changing with Pillar.

I'm not sure what you mean by "pedigree".  Goins was a pretty good hitter in the low minors and a decent, but far from great, fielder.  I saw him in both Lansing and New Hampshire, and he was nothing like what he is today defensively. Gerry has suggested that perhaps Mike Mordecai helped him later on in his minor league career.  Pillar was a good hitter in the minors, but I saw nothing that would suggest that he could be a Gold-Glove quality centerfielder (rather he seemed to be a good defender in left-field with the ability to cover centerfield). I have no idea how he took a step forward, but it seems pretty clear to me that he, like Goins, learned a few things along the way which he has put to good use. 

I'm just not sure I see why any team "going for it" would give up an ace for Edwin when that would presumably blow a massive hole in their lineup.  And I'm not sure why any team would "need" Edwin more than the Jays.  The Jays have the best run differential in the league, so any deal would have to improve on that. 

I'm much more interested in looking at the last 3 years of "Edwin being among the best hitters in baseball", than relying on Smoak/Colabello to sustain a good couple weeks/months.

I disagree he is "poor to unusable" at 1B, and irrespective of if he is, you still need a DH.  Edwin is the best in the game.  If you need to give Reyes or Jose a half day off, play Edwin at 1B.  The reason it's harder to do that right now is because they don't have a backup MI of quality, or a backup OF of quality, not because Edwin at 1B is a catastrophe.

This Jays window is constructed to win now, and by now I mean before Jose's and Edwin's contracts expire in 2015 and 2016 (if they weren't going to do that, why in the world would they have spent a fortune on Martin and a prospect "fortune" on Donaldson, both players who are also in and headed out of their prime).  Trading one of your best players to fill a hole simply doesn't make any sense.  Trade guys who won't help you in 2015/2016 does.  If you lose him because you can't re-sign him, at least you gave it a run.

If the Jays are out of it mid-season next year, I imagine EE will already have a new contract or be asked to make a move.  But make that decision after you take a run at the playoffs this year and next.

I was remiss not to incorporate the fact that a money-conscious team like Toronto is forced to be derives massive value from having one of the best hitters in the game on a $10m contract, more than a Boston or New York would.  Thank you for adding this to the conversation.

Is there any suggestion Copeland is going to be more than a stopgap??  Perish the thought.

Not only is Norris for Hamels or Cueto not crazy, it is exactly the type of trade this team should be making right now.

as the red sox are learning this year - losing dependable pieces from the top of your roster has a domino effect right down to the bottom. take a step back and it seems pretty crazy to suggest that a great offensive team trade their cleanup hitter to try and improve the team. actually seems crazy even without taking a step back.

i absolutely love the idea of going with cheapo lotto tickets like smoak/cola/valencia/barton for ONE spot lower down in the order.....but counting on them to fill TWO spots...and middle of the order spots at that....is just asking for trouble.

it's like WAMCO trading Carter to try and win the world series. or probably more like trading molitor, actually.

Angels, for one, need Edwin - Their DH spot has been a black hole - worse than our April SP. They just have to give back value we could use to acquire what we want or replace those we use.

Poor at 1st, unusable elsewhere.

Point is moot now it seems with the 10/5 thing.

"Not only is Norris for Hamels or Cueto not crazy, it is exactly the type of trade this team should be making right now."

its a bit funny that norris is the name that keeps getting bandied about, when that would have been sanchez a month ago.

one of those types is obviously going to be the centerpiece of a deal for a #1.....but i'd like to humbly suggest that Hoffman might possibly (but far from definitely) be the one 5o trade. There is a greater than zero chance that Hoffman might both have the most value now and be the worst of them in the end.

Considering Molitor's 1993 wRC+ was 144, Edwin's WORST over a full season over the last 3 years (Carter's was 108 in 1993), it's exactly like trading Molitor, or a slightly more powerful version of Molitor. 

I disagree he is "poor to unusable" at 1B

He is a below average 1B that has a history of back and leg issues. That combo means he isn't a full time 1B. He can work as a part time 1B as you described, though, and it isn't a problem.

And yeah, getting a frontline starter for him his highly improbable, but if Preller went nuts (by believing he should trade for yet another RH power hitter that has defensive issues when the Padres are 3 games under .500) and wanted to talk Cashner* for Encarnacion, you have to at least have the conversation and see if something plays out.

* I am not advocating this particular deal. The necessary dominoes that would have to line up for an Encarnacion deal that makes sense are very specific, and it's tough to see one without an injury or some mental gymnastics. Basically, he's not someone I'd shop, but he's not a conversation stopper (like Donaldson, Martin and Bautista would effectively be).

I'd trend towards Norris or Hoffman simply because they aren't helping the Jays right now, or at least, are less likely to have a significant impact on the 2015 roster.  But that's an astute point about Norris vs. Sanchez a month ago...and maybe the best argument that it should really be Hoffman (or, I guess, that it doesn't really matter which one, since TINSSAPP).

I always liked Pillar as a legit mlber...but have always been skeptical of his abilities to be a starter.

But like Mike i may have underrated just how plus his D and speed are. That lowers the offensive bar for him significantly. A guy like that can be a very valuable starter if he can at least get close to league avg with the bat. My rough threshhold for this kind of player is a 90wrc+ - within 10% of league average. a player who can do that with plus plus D and baserunning can be a good 3win starting mlber.

Pillar is not quite there yet. He's been hovering around 80wrc+ this year which i don't think even his D and baserunning can make legit starter quality. but if May was just a slump then maybe he can get up there still.

what is really confusing me this year about pillar is his platoon splits. this guy has always shown every reason to think he can hit lhp at the mlb level, in milb and mlb and never shown much ability to hit rhp.

But this year he's reversed the platoon splits for the first time ever. He's been almost competent vRHP (88wrc+) but useless against LHP (73wrc+). I can't figure out if this is a fluke or an adjustment, and I can't figure out what it means to his future projections whether or not either is true.

this is a guy who imo always profiled perfectly as a 4th OF platoon vLHP guy, but this year he's thrown away that profile completely.

I missed the news that Shaun Marcum was DFAed.  Marcum's ERA the last two major league years (2013 and 2015) was over 5 in about 100 innings, but it appears that everything else suggests that he has not lost it completely (SIERAs of right around 4, xFIP almost exactly constant at 4.20).  He was hit very hard in his last outing against the Cubs, but was great against the Mariners in the previous one.

I've always liked him and I hope that he comes back to Toronto in some capacity.  I wonder how he would do in the bullpen.   He was a closer in college, and might do well in the role as an older player. 

Gibbons has Navarro catching Estrada for the night-game before a day game.  It's a bit of a surprise with Buehrle scheduled to pitch tomorrow.

Colabello continues in left-field. 

Some thoughts:
-Pillar has bWar of 2.1. Carlos Gomez has had 2 great years, but this year, is only at 0.9 - about half of Pillar. He's also making $8M, and Pillar is MLB minimum. Yes, he'd probably shift Collabelo out of the lineup instead (who is probably also making MLB Minimum), and has a WAR of about 0.5 in not quite a full season. Do you go from $500K (not sure what the exact number is) to $8M just to go from (guess for the rest of the season) 1 more WAR from C-Lo to 1.5-1.8 from Gomez? Seems like a vast overpay, especially if you then have to give up prospects, AND lose him at the end of the season. Now, if they'd take C-Lo FOR Gomez, straight up, sure, do that. Not if we have to also add a B+ prospect or two. Maybe in closer games, use Carrera (and Saunders, if he ever plays again??) as a defensive replacement/platoon more.

-Honestly, it feels to me like the Saunders deal END RESULT may be that Saunders never plays again at the MLB level. Knees are a tricky thing. Even if he does play, Saunders might end up no better than C-Lo in the outfield defensively on a wonky leg. They might end up being a great platoon.. If he never plays again - would this make the Happ/Saunders deal the worst in Blue Jays history?? :-)

-I agree with the Dickey trade comment that said: so far, Dickey has out-WARed the entire group. I.e. on the whole, he's pitched decently, and the other guys haven't produced that much value yet. And you also have to look at the fact that it was 3-for-1. If Syndergard and d'Arnaud and Becerra combined end up having career WARs 3x that of Dickey, it's still not that bad - you can only pitch player at a time. Unless ONE of those players all by themselves significantly out-WARs Dickey over their career, we got the best player in the deal, and so it's not a total loss. Imagine how bad the last 2-3 years would have been if we had had to keep pitching Chien-Ming Wang?

-pedigree: I think pedigree matters most for starting pitchers. Bautista was not highly-rated prospect, as I recall.