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The Toronto Blue Jays wrap up their five-game road trip with two games at Citi Field against the Mets in interleague action. The Mets are in first place in the National League East with a 34-30 mark, a half-game ahead of 33-30 Washington. The Metropolitans bounced back from an extra-innings loss to the Braves by winning the rubber match of their three-game set Sunday afternoon.


The Blue Jays share the same record as the Mets at 34-30 thanks to their 11-game winning streak which included a sweep in Boston over the weekend. They're one game back of the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay in the American League East.

Series Schedule / Probable Starters


Monday at 7:10 pm - Mark Buehrle (7-4, 4.25) vs. Noah Syndergaard (2-4, 4.15)
Tuesday at 7:10 pm - Scott Copeland (1-0, 0.90) vs Matt Harvey (6-4, 3.62)
Blue Jays @ New York Mets - June 15-16 | 155 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#302858) #
Colabello in left. I guess Gibbons doesn't think the Mets can get around on Buehrle.
Magpie - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#302862) #
Silly National League pitcher. Challenging Jose Bautista with a fastball. Now you know, kid.
hypobole - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#302864) #
Hey, the BoSox have Hanley in left and they're doing OK, aren't they?

Seriously, a spacious outfield like Citifield should have Carrera. Gibbons not doing Buehrle any favours.

And speaking of bad outfield play, check out Abraham's remarks about De Aza yesterday. Basically suggesting they bench?/get rid of? him.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/06/14/red-sox-continue-unravel-get-swept-blue-jays/Agns0dFK3zjo90b4XuFEKP/story.html
Kasi - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#302866) #
Losing Thor really hurts as the Dickey trade has just been a disaster with all three players looking good. I don't mind the Marlins trade since Beirhle has been good and Reyes fine and we didn't really lose anything all that great. I worry about any other prospects we trade this summer if we buy in for a rental. I don't mind if we give up a Nicolino, but not if we lose another stud pitcher. Just hope AA evaluates better this time.
Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#302867) #
Syndegaard's changeup has come along.  You never know with pitchers, but you'd think that he's got what it takes to have a long and successful career.
raptorsaddict - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#302869) #
Rob Faulds is not very good at announcing sports. That wouldn't normally be a problem, except he chose "announcing sports" as his profession. This is some amateur-hour, karaoke type stuff.



greenfrog - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#302871) #
It's funny - it was a Reyes throwing error that ended the Jays' ten-game win streak last year. Hopefully his throwing error doesn't end the team's 11-game win streak this year.
JB21 - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#302874) #
You and I have a different sense of humour!!

3 big ones left.
JB21 - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#302875) #
Update. Still 3 big ones left.
Magpie - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#302876) #
Silly National League pitcher. Challenging Jose Bautista with a fastball. Now you know, kid.

(Yes, it's deja vu all over gain.)
Chuck - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#302877) #
We are familia!
uglyone - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#302878) #
love this team
uglyone - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#302879) #
"Rob Faulds is not very good at announcing sports"

this is like my own personal hell. he was the bane of my sporting existence a decade ago....and now he's BACK.
greenfrog - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#302881) #
Bautista is such a good ballplayer.
Chuck - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#302882) #
Marty Foster and Pitch FX have watched two different games tonight.
Spifficus - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#302883) #
Marty Foster might in fact be watching a different game, since he had to leave this one after getting his jaw realigned by a foul ball earlier.
Chuck - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#302884) #
Serves me right for arriving late.
uglyone - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#302885) #
crazy wide strikezone tonight. but low.

is this an NL thing i wonder?
greenfrog - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#302886) #
I would prefer the Jays win this Osuna rather than later. I need to get some sleep.
JB21 - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#302887) #
West Coast for the win! *makespopcorn
Chuck - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#302888) #
Cecil running the count full allowed Cuddyer to get a huge lead and a running start. This better not go 17.
JB21 - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#302889) #
Also, "all singles defence / no doubles offence" didn't help.

Well, you got your wish.
Chuck - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#302890) #
Okay, that's not what I meant.
Gerry - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#302891) #
Cecil wasn't sharp tonight, oh well it was a good run.
greenfrog - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#302892) #
Painful because it was winnable. Ah well, back at it tomorrow.
scottt - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#302893) #
Still think this team needs a closer.
Sherrystar - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#302894) #
Does anyone really feel comfortable with Cecil coming in to close out games? I don't.
JB21 - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#302895) #
It might be Osuna's turn.
cruzin - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#302896) #
Well disappointing way to end it for sure. It's easy to play arm chair manager and while I shouldn't I will anyway.

Did the lack of an experienced middle infielder, mess up a potential double play. It was a slow chopper to Valencia, but would've Santiago et al been able to quickly flip it to Reyes and have a chance to turn two?

Play no doubles defence made sense with a runner on 1st, but on a full count and the runner going, did it make sense to bring the OF in a bit. Carrera probably still doesn't get to that blopper, but holds Cuddyer at 3rd.

Still a good run, try to get back into the Win column tomorrow.
92-93 - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#302897) #
Really painful loss. If Michael Cuddyer can score from first on a single, the LF is playing WAY too deep, no doubles defence be damned. The relay from Carrera to Donaldson wasn't that bad, and it would've been a very interesting play at the plate had Josh been able to get a grip on the ball.

Tonight was a classic example of getting burned by your 8 man bullpen; a 2B with some experience very likely turns 2 on that 11th inning grounder.
John Northey - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#302898) #
Saw a couple of times the game could've been over in that last inning - if Valencia had thrown to SS for the double play instead of trying to tag the runner (rarely a good idea to try to tag), if Donaldson had thrown home instead of into the ground. 

But such is life.  No win streak can last forever.  Time to start a new one tomorrow.

BlueJayWay - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#302899) #
If Michael Cuddyer can score from first on a single, the LF is playing WAY too deep

Especially with a lefty at the plate, against a lefty pitcher. You don't see too many balls hit deep the other way in that situation.
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#302900) #
When EE doubled in the 9th with no outs, instead of pinch running for EE, I think Gibbons should have had Carrera, who's a capable bunter pinch-hit for Colabello & try to bunt EE over to 3rd.
85bluejay - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#302902) #
With all the pinch hitting in NL parks, I was surprised that the Jays didn't switch Tepera out for a MI.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#302903) #
The Reyes throwing error to start the Mets' rally with one out and none on and a 1-0 Jays lead. The Jays' inability to advance the runner to 3rd in the 9th inning with none out. The one-out walk by Cecil in the final frame.

The little things that add up to a one-run loss in extras.
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#302904) #
Those little things probably happened in all 11 of our wins too. They happen every game. Can't win them all.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#302905) #
Right. It's just that the little things seem to matter less when you score 80 runs over an 11-game stretch. They tend to get magnified more when you're facing good pitching in a tight ballgame.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#302906) #
Chuck, please keep the amusing critiques of Faulds, Cosentino, and Howarth's coming. Been enjoying them for a long time. "Gee whiz" to describe Jerry is my personal favorite, with Faulds as the clueless uncle a close second.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#302907) #
Without the DH in the NL parks, it means you have a 4 man bench even with a 8 man BP, but of course you will be 1000% using some of those bench bats to pinch hit for your pitcher.

I am similarly surprised they are still running the 8 man pen out there right now.  Hurry back, Travis.  Or Tolleson, even.

Thomas - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#302908) #
The other question I have (and I did wonder about this at the time rather than post it on here) is why did the Jays call up Copeland yesterday as opposed to today? If you recalled him for Tuesday's game, the club could have recalled a hitter for Monday and have a spare bat/defensive option/pinch-runner for Monday's game. I am far from the world's biggest Jonathan Diaz fan, but he could have filled that role nicely for one game. It's another question as to whether he would have been playing second base there instead of Valencia, but it would seem that would have been a more effective use of the 25th roster spot.
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#302909) #
They had to call him up when they placed Sanchez on the DL. Otherwise, they would have had to wait 10 days from when he was optioned before they could call him up again.
Thomas - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#302910) #
To answer my own question, I just remembered that Diaz was taken off the 40-man roster, so I can understand not opening up a 40-man roster spot for one game. Presumably Kawasaki couldn't have been recalled, because then the team would have used the exception to the "10 days in the minors except for injury" rule on him and wouldn't have been able to use it to recall Copeland for tonight's start. And I wouldn't have recalled Pompey for one game only, so I can understand why they didn't try to use the Sanchez-DL roster spot differently on Monday.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#302911) #
A couple of bad bounces really. I thought the team played fairly well and just had things go against them yesterday. Those types of losses are why the best teams still only play about.600 ball. Hopefully we bounce back with another good effort today.

That being said, the bullpen would look much better with a new closer bumping everyone else down.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#302914) #
Cecil's taken some heat for blowing the save, and yeah, he wasn't sharp. But the last pitch to Duda wasn't bad, and it was a case of the Mets best hitter fighting off and dumping the ball into a good spot.

However, I've reread the comments and here is something no one mentioned. Cecil left with 2 outs, a tie ballgame and the Mets equivalent of Kevin Pillar (albiet with more power) coming up.

Hendriks comes in and grooves the 1st pitch right down the middle. Ballgame.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#302915) #
Chuck, please keep the amusing critiques of Faulds, Cosentino, and Howarth's coming.

Frankly, I think twice before I make such posts. Really. I'm not aggressively looking to target these barrelled fish. There is no sport. When I do comment, it's only after I have reached a high level of frustration.

I know that I could certainly not do those jobs any better than the men I am mocking. I try to get not get overly hung up on tortured grammar and dubious math skills, generally finding adequate reprieve in simply yelling at my television and letting the moment pass. This behaviour is not quite as zen-like as I'd want, but, alas, self-improvement comes slowly.

But we are all in a pact with Rogers. We, here, watch and/or listen to more games than the average fan. In a typical day for us, we hear the voices of Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler more than those of our spouses, kids and co-workers. It is therefore incumbent upon Rogers to honour that pact and dutifully fill those jobs with men who are skilled at their profession. We deserve such consideration. Never mind that Rob Faulds held a fulltime job a decade ago and ostensibly has the experience to fill in. He doesn't. By any measurement, he is terrible at what he does. He may have a terrific broadcaster's voice, but he uses it to advertise his cluelessness. And while I feel offended enough by Rogers when they foist Buck and Pat on me, as they do every year, I am all the more offended when the best substitute teacher they can find is even worse. You wouldn't have thought that would even be possible.

Dave Till has many times mentioned he watches the games on mute. Come mid-summer, I eventually relent and do the same. Baseball is played by world class athletes. Even the players we mock are far better at their profession than most of us are at ours. That professionalism should be extended to the broadcast team, as much as possible. It is an affront when it is not. And sometimes I reach a boiling point and smarmy blog posts ensue.

Jevant - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#302916) #
That's fair.  Although Hendriks gets a pass for me on the totality of his work this year, and also his ridiculous back to back strikeouts of Ortiz/Bog on Saturday. :)

It's one game, and they weren't going to win them all the rest of the day (they can probably lost 40 more times the rest of the way and still make the playoffs).  Let's go get em tonight.  Here's hoping that Copeland can keep them in it, and the Jays take it to Mr. Harvey.

ogator - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#302917) #
Did anyone else notice the moment in last night's broadcast where Faulds described a 3-2 pitch as "ball four" and then described the batter walking back to the dugout? I don't think it's fair to ask a fill-in broadcaster to create an aural masterpiece, but we can expect him to know the difference between a strike out and a walk.
Saskatchewan - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#302918) #
Has this been posted anywhere? as per http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/draft-signings-white-maese-miller-erwin-graham.html

•The Blue Jays have reached a $300K deal with third-round choice Justin Maese, per Callis. That constitutes a somewhat rare below-slot deal for a high school arm, as the slot value was $636,400. While Maese has shown a big fastball and strong slider, Baseball America says he has been inconsistent. Toronto also agreed to a $450K bonus with fourth-round pick Carl Wise, Callis reports, falling just $11,200 of the slot value.

That's a pretty significant savings on Maese considering slot.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#302920) #
Hypobole, I had no problem with yanking Cecil there. Despite inducing the weak contact off Duda's bat he did fall behind in the at bat, and I didn't think he looked sharp during the entire outing. Once a closer blows a save there's a bit of a mental edge they lose out there on the mound, and I thought it was a nice proactive move to get Cecil away from the game and try your luck with Hendriks, who was going to be the next man up should the game go to the 12th anyway. Personally I'd like to see him try and get a bit more out of Loup-Delabar-Osuna in that type of game, but I also understand only getting one inning from them so they are ready to get back on the bump tonight.

I'll never understand the never ending complaints about Buck & Tabby. I can't tolerate the TV broadcast, so I always listen to 590 while watching; it's a simple solution. If some of you hate the radio broadcast too, just pony up for the MLB package so you can watch the game with the opposing broadcasts (and quickly learn most of them are terrible too), or you can watch the game with the sounds of the ballpark.

If I've recently purchased a new album, I often watch the game with the music playing. It's quite relaxing.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#302921) #
http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=1&lg=div&date=current

That made me smile.  I assume and hope it does the same for all of you.

So many different numbers are nice to see, but my favourite was comparing WS to all the other teams...

jerjapan - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#302922) #
are you with Rogers 92-93? ive got bell satellite and there is a time lapse between the TV and the radio - so the only solution you mention that would work involves extra cash. Hence the complaints. I don't mind Buck or the radio guys but man, I dislike Pat Tabler. I get that there's an older demographic that love baseball, but there's also an increasingly sophisticated younger audience that is being ignored.

Lots of value signings from the draft thus far. Do these savings give us any chance on Reggie Pruitt or Chandler Eden? Landing Pruitt would make a good draft great.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#302923) #
92-93, I agree with you fully on Cecil, especially with the RHH Flores coming up. All I was trying to point out was that after reading all the "blame game" posts remarking on AA, Gibbons, Cecil, Valencia, Reyes, Donaldson et al, not one person mentioned Hendriks grooving his first pitch in a tie game with the winning run on 2nd to a not good hitter.

If we're going to finger-point, we should at least be fair about it.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#302924) #
The problem is that Cecil, Hendricks, Coke, etc etc are not closers. We can say Gibbons should have done this, Gibbons should of done that. In the end, he just throws things against the wall and sees if it sticks.

Until the Jays get a true closer, we can cut and paste this conversation and "Insert name here".

The Jays have this phenomenal run differential and are a couple games above 500. They don't have the pitching to win the close ball game. Over time, that is very deflating. That is how you lose 10 games after winning 10 in a row.

85bluejay - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#302925) #
I usually watch the game with the sound off - music/podcast and exercise - only if I need an explanation of something that I turn up the sound - it's terrific.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#302927) #
I'm in the Tabler hater camp also. Anyone remember "Coach" from the old Cheers TV show? That,to me, is Buck and his constant gaffe's, so he at least provides comedic relief. But I can't stand Tabler.

I usually watch with the sound off. My wife is also a Jays fan but must watch and listen, so she goes to the front room and uses the smaller TV in there - I still end up hearing some of the discourse.
Jevant - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#302928) #
Except there have been lots of posts with detailed numbers recently suggesting that the BP hasn't really been the overwhelming problem that it's popular to suggest it is, just some absymal pitching in high leverage spots.  Unfortunately, one arm won't be able to take all the high leverage spots (which often occur in situations other than "bases empty, 9th inning" where a closer generally enters). 

I think with the Jays bullpen if you believe all the arms just can't function in high leverage spots due to whatever reason, you'd need to find 3-4 relievers that can.  Or, you can attribute the struggles in high leverage spots to bad sequencing/small sample size (to some extent), and think about getting 1-2 relievers who can fit in somewhere.

Personally, I think there is "something" to a greater difficulty to pitching in high leverage spots, but not to the level the Jays have experienced to date.  Some positive regression from the current arms, plus adding a piece or two between now and the deadline, should be the target, I think.

92-93 - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#302930) #
"are you with Rogers 92-93? ive got bell satellite and there is a time lapse between the TV and the radio - so the only solution you mention that would work involves extra cash."

The delay doesn't bother me at all; in fact, I appreciate it. I can listen to the game while doing something else, and if it sounds like the play was worth watching, I have 5-10 seconds to get back to the TV and check it out.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#302932) #
so it was the Cards who hacked into the Astros' computers.

crazy.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#302933) #
FWIW, I would have kept Cecil in there.  He obviously wasn't at his best  (the one out walk was painful) , but neither was he hit around particularly hard.  I would have kept him in there to finish the inning for both confidence reasons, and also because you know that you're going to need at least another inning to win anyway. 

Props to Colabello for the fine defensive play at first base.  It still should be mentioned that the Jay roster construction is especially problematic in NL park games.  You really want Smoak in the lineup against a tough RH starter like Syndegaard, but he's reduced to a bench role so that Encarnacion can play.  In the result, he gets underutilized.  Valencia is a useful pinch-hit bat against a LH reliever but can't play second base effectively.  Personally, I would have let Goins hit in the seventh but I understand why Gibbons pinch-hit for him .

Finally, in the "You be the Manager" department, Gibbons had an interesting decision in the 9th whether to bunt with Colabello in a 2-2 game with a runner on 2nd and nobody out (or indeed whether to pinch-hit with Carrera rather than to pinch-run him for Encarnacion).  The Mets' broadcasters were tossing it back and forth and weren't really sure what they would do.

laketrout - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#302934) #
What would it take to get Dan Shulman back from ESPN? He was by far the best play-by-play man for Jays broadcasts. Buck was also decent when doing the colour commentary beside him.

Jim Hughson I always thought was the next best play-by-play man. He's back with Sportsnet can we get him?
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#302935) #

Unfortunately, one arm won't be able to take all the high leverage spots

Actually, since a closer would slot everyone else down one rung, it does theoretically have a positive cascading impact on high-leverage situations. Suddenly Cecil gets to throw the 8th, and Osuna gets the 7th (or vice versa, if the platoon advantage looks like it's shaping up the other way). Hendricks and Loop get the 5th and/or 6th, and Delebar gets spare stuff in there somewhere now that he seems to have found his fastball command again.

This doesn't even require a Chapman-level arm... Just someone you trust enough to not take the closer's job away from after a bad few outings.

Spifficus - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#302936) #
Is it just me, or do Buck and Tabler have a distinct aversion to pronouns?
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#302937) #
Buck and Tabler

Perhaps they do.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#302938) #
i actually don't hate buck and pat. they're not the dharpest guys around and are full of cliches but they don't grate imo. and their experience does give them legit insights sometimes even if its hidden in a lot of wrongness. And its a peculiar pleasure hearing Pat being forced to explain stats he doesn't understand like war and fip this year...and surprisingly both buck and pat seem to be fully on board the WAR train....though my hunch is buck was only converted once he realized how much it valued catcher defense.

I think it's an insult when rogers forces embarassments like Faulds and jamie campbell on is, though.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#302939) #
"so it was the Cards who hacked into the Astros' computers.
crazy."


Looks like "sustained success" isn't the only parallel between the Cards and Patriots.
pooks137 - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#302940) #
Finally, in the "You be the Manager" department, Gibbons had an interesting decision in the 9th whether to bunt with Colabello in a 2-2 game with a runner on 2nd and nobody out (or indeed whether to pinch-hit with Carrera rather than to pinch-run him for Encarnacion).

Colabello has exactly zero successful bunts in affiliated ball of any type, so the answer is that you don't ask him to bunt

Pinch-hitting Carrera for Colabello screams "We' re bunting!" to the Mets. Encarncacion isn't a great runner at second. Carrera seems like a decent bunter as per his numbers, but I presume the odds of a successful bunt drop a lot in the scenario where it is so telegraphed and the defence is prepared

I have no issues letting the next three batters swing away to try to cash in EE, but sometimes it's just not your night

Chuck - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#302941) #
Gibbons had an interesting decision in the 9th whether to bunt with Colabello in a 2-2 game with a runner on 2nd

Colabello has been a singles-hitting machine. I don't think there was any real choice for Gibbons to make.

Jevant - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#302943) #
Sure, but if you are saying that "everyone in the BP can't handle high leverage spots", then you really need an entirely new BP, or at least more than 1 arm.  And again, lots of time the highest leverage spots occur in the middle of the 7th/8th, rather than to start the 9th.

But I would agree that any singular BP upgrade would be helpful, and I think this BP is good enough that 1 (or maybe 2) is sufficient.  If you can add an SP that bumps someone to the BP, so much the better.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#302944) #
weren't all the innings the pen pitched last night "high leverage"?
China fan - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#302945) #
Much as I've been a big fan of Colabello since before he joined the Jays, I'm not sure if he deserves to be playing 1B ahead of Smoak at this point in the season.  Colabello's bat has considerably cooled off in June, perhaps with the inevitable regression, whereas Smoak has been getting better and better.  Colabello has an OPS of .654 this month, while Smoak has an OPS of 1.017 in the same period.  If you want to go back to May 1 for a bigger sample, Smoak still has an OPS of .904 since then.  If the Jays still have to put Colabello in LF sometimes to avoid giving too many ABs to Carrera, that's perhaps understandable, but I'm not sure if he should be playing ahead of Smoak at 1B or even at DH.  
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#302946) #
And its a peculiar pleasure hearing Pat being forced to explain stats he doesn't understand like war and fip this year...and surprisingly both buck and pat seem to be fully on board the WAR train....though my hunch is buck was only converted once he realized how much it valued catcher defense.

Agreed - they're not the best, but they're not Hawk Harrelson annoying either. It seems like they totally understand OPS. Sure, that's a baby step, but it was the first BIG baby step for many of us, I imagine. Which means they're now willing to try WAR and FIP, etc. Hey - that's progress! As long as they're willing to try/learn, I'm ok if they're 5 years behind the "bleeding edge". Wouldn't mind Mulliniks making the occasional guest visit, but he's probably too dry for the average fan.

I understand that they're not catering to the "young and savvy" crowd, but then again - who is? If they were to go totally nuts with advanced stats, which ones? Everyone has their favorite: OPS+, WRC, WRC+, STEAMER, SIERA, etc.. No matter which one they picked, they'd annoy some. Plus, those stats aren't THAT hard to find online - that crowd is probably surfing the web, texting, gaming and driving while watching the game anyway.. 
Michael - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#302947) #
The cards hacking astros information is pretty interesting. Looks like AA was willing to trade Stroman + someone for Bud Norris in 2013. The Astros last ask was Stroman + Gose for Bud Norris. I'm glad that didn't happen.

Also saw that replacing JPA was the top priority for AA in the off season.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#302948) #
The eighth inning by Delabar (down a run in the eighth) was not high leverage (.6 according to Tango's tables). All other relief work was high-leverage and some of it was ultra-high leverage.



cybercavalier - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#302949) #
Definitely off-topic of baseball, Canada Men Soccer National teamis going to match against Dominica at the BMO Field on June 15, 2015 (today), Canada won the first leg 2-0 and is looking forward to win this evening match and qualify for the third round of 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification CONCACAF.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#302950) #

uglyone - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#302956) #
[Regarding trading Bud Norris]

7/19/2013
[Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos] texted [Luhnow] and asked what it would take for Norris. AA said Aaron Sanchez is off the table but might be willing to talk about anyone else.
7/20/2013
[Luhnow] told [Alex Anthopoulos] that we would consider Stroman +. AA said he had a bunch of balls in the air at once but would get back to JL.

10/18/2013
TOR reached out on Jason Catro. They said their No. 1 priority this off season is to upgrade over Arrencibia. They want to get a sense for what the price would be on Castro.

11/13/2013
[Alex Anthopoulos] said Lawrie was untouchable. Sounded like they might consider a smaller deal for Stroman but later in off season.
Dewey - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#302959) #
I get that there's an older demographic that love [sic] baseball, but there's also an increasingly sophisticated younger audience that is being ignored.

“Sophisticated” and “young” are two words you seldom see together, for good reason.  There are some very easy assumptions and some misguided stereotyping in that sentence.  (I’m reminded of Oscar Wilde’s “I’m not young enough to know it all.”)  On behalf of the “older demographic”, I protest that many older fans are quite aware of the new data-driven approaches to analysing baseball; even if they don’t pay full obeissance to them just because they are new.   To re-arrange Hazlitt a bit, “He who knows only data knows not even them.”

the "young and savvy" crowd?  Who dat?
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#302961) #
Pillar gets the day off today with Carrera in centerfield.  Colabello plays left and Encarnacion is at first base.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#302962) #
I'm with Dewey. Not giving my age, but my 1st favourite team was the '68 Tigers. McLain won 31 games (last time that's happened). Mickey Lolich winning 3 WS games including the Game 7 showdown vs Bob Gibson. Remember names like Joe Sparma, Don Wert and Jim (Grand Slam) Northrup. Also remembered Aurelio Rodriguez, though when I checked he didn't join the Tigers until '71. Old man memory.

"What's your point, Grandpa Simpson?" you may ask. Every day, along with BattersBox and MLTBR, one of my go-to pages is Fangraphs. Love learning something new and understanding the game in ways I've never realized before.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#302965) #
The TV commentators are just perfunctory. Such is 2015. I understand Rogers' conservatism. We will get change when we demand it. I don't care enough.

I have to recommend watching these games with the Mets booth - Gary Cohen, Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez. Outside of Vin Scully, they're easily the best - they fit together well, straight man/pitcher/hitter, straight man/Yale man/Keith Hernandez, and both ex-players are very cerebral and opinionated.

And it's hard to blame Tabler for walking on eggshells and being aggressively bland. If you had such an amazing job, would you risk showing any personality? If he had the right partner, someone to constantly put him on the spot with offbeat baseball questions all game instead of just playing platitude tennis, I bet he'd be entertaining enough.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#302967) #
the funny thing is most of us were raised in a time where it was SMART to be anti stats - because the available stats sucked. back then when we were told "stats deceive as much as enlighten" that was true.....because we were looking at batting average, homers, rbi, and sb.

so until recently it's always been wise to largely ignore the stats, so it's understandable that older fans would be resistant to embracing new stats.

but stats are getting very good now. wRC+ really is a fantastic snapshot of a player's offensive performamce, and to a lesser extent SIERA really is an good snapshot of a pitcher's performance. WAR is far from perfect but is a very good all around estimate of a player's value.

these really aren't stats that anyone would want to ignore anymore, for any reason.

and you can hear it on the broadcast - even though they still trot our hoary cliches about intangibles, buck and pat are actually starting to understand how useful they are. When a good ex mlb hitter like Tabler talks about babip you can almoat hear how it has helped him understand his own hot and cold streaks as a player. when buck talks about WAR you can almost hear the enjoyment he gets from a stat that finally understands that he actually did have some value as a player. once these guys start understanding the new stats you can hear the lights come on as they see how it applies to their own careers and what they felt were the limitations of atats.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#302969) #
Except even new stats have caveats - Using both site's WAR makes the value snapshot more clear, adding WARP to the mix even more so . (Except how do I access WARP #'s?)

Defensive metrics like UZR need 3 years of data for accuracy.

Still far better than the days when I thought .280 BA was a good hitter, .300 great and RBI's were very useful stat.
JB21 - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#302974) #
Judging by the conversation Tabler and Faulds had last inning I'm 99% sure that Rob Faulds has never heard of the Brooklyn Dodgers or the NY Giants.
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#302976) #
Had he at least heard of the Mets?
Chuck - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#302977) #
Dan Warthen is the Mets' pitching coach. I remember him as an Expo. Just looked him up. He was done in the majors at 25. Hung around in the minors until 29, ending in A ball.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#302978) #
Orioles skipping lefty Chen against Jays. More and more lefties might get such "rest".
Chuck - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#302981) #
Impulse control issues from Pillar.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#302982) #
Wow - that play may well have cost the Jays the ballgame. Simple matter of running with your head up.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#302983) #
It wasn't clear to me that Pillar wouldn't have had a problem even if he had his head up.  It was a late stop sign from Rivera (and a somewhat questionable one given Granderson's noodle arm even with nobody out).  Pillar was well beyond second base when the stop sign went up and there was a good chance he'd have been thrown out  going back even if he had his head up.  Not that it excuses the baserunning.

There was a raft of bad baserunning tonight.  With the Mets bullpen in bad shape, the club didn't do much to help themselves.

scottt - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#302984) #
Another one run game.
cruzin - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#302985) #
While Pillar should've paid attention ahead, one has to wonder if it was Rivera instead Leiper whether Goins would've been sent. If Pillar being used to an aggressive 3rd base coach in Rivera played a role.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#302986) #
6-14 in one run games now....

Of the last 12 Jays losses, 9 have been by one run, the other 3 by two runs. That means they've been outscored by 15 runs total in those 12 games.

+69 run differential = 34-32 record. Frustrating. I mean the Jays are frustrating every year and they're bad in one run games every year, but this season they seem to be elevating it to an art.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#302989) #
Many look to one run record and wonder what it takes to win those. 

Checking Jays history....
Great years
1983-1993: the pen was viewed as horrid in 83/84 but the Jays were 556 and 576 winning percentages in 1 run games those years.
1985-1993: Tom Henke or Duane Ward were the closers with guys like Eichhorn and Ward as 8th inning men.  Scary good pens.  Sub 500 in 1986 (when Eichhorn had 157 IP with a 1.57 ERA), sub 500 in 1990 with Henke/Ward.  Now, none of those were in eyeshot of this years disaster.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#302990) #
6-14 in one run games now

That tells you everything, IMO.

Jdog - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#302991) #
Mistake by Pillar, but i would have liked to see a heads up play by Goins where he went home and at least made them throw him out. Even after stopping when he realized Pillar was caught he should have broke for home, when he gets thrown out Pillar is at third.
Spifficus - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#302992) #

6-14 in one run games now

That tells you everything, IMO.

That even when they're down by three runs late, they're still going to have to make mistakes to lose by one?

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:44 PM EDT (#302993) #
Without a dependable Closer, everything a team does is altered by that. The problem is that both the GM and the Manager think the Bullpen must get better/needs help. With that vote of confidence, you expect the Team to be any different?
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, June 16 2015 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#302994) #
MLB Trade Rumors are having a great day covering the Investigation.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#302995) #
losing is no fun.

win more, please.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 07:30 AM EDT (#302996) #
'"I made a mistake by not picking up the third base coach," Pillar said. "It's as embarrassing as it gets."'

Maybe Pillar is covering for his third base coach, but it seems more likely that he just wasn't paying enough attention. Either way, that play just can't happen in that situation. Imagine that happening in a key playoff game.

Losses are tough to take. Beating yourself makes it that much worse.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#302997) #
Maybe Pillar is covering for his third base coach

Just saw the replay again this morning. The third base coach had the stop sign up for Goins just after Pillar rounded second base. Plenty of time for Pillar to pick it up and stop running. He just wasn't looking.

jerjapan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 08:14 AM EDT (#302998) #
Dewey, I realize I'm taking a risk when I discuss grammar with you, but ...

As far as I can tell, with collective nouns like 'demographic' it's up to the user to determine if he or she wishes to stress the group as a whole, e.g. "they love baseball", vs. a usage that stresses the individual members of the group, e.g. "an older demographic that loves baseball". 

Now your post has made me question whether I should look at this demographic as a whole - you and hypobole correctly point out that lots of older fans enjoy modern stats.

However,  I'm sticking to my guns on both the characterization of older viewers IN GENERAL, and my usage of the plural version of demographic.

Gulp. 

Jevant - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#303000) #
I'm genuinely curious as to what you mean by "everything".
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#303003) #
Jevant, who is "you"?
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#303004) #
Anyone catch the comment on Dustin McGowan's "performance" by the radio crew last night? 1st relief pitcher since ???? to give up 5 HR's in one game. I think they said 2002 but not sure.

Sadly seems to be getting close to end-of-the-road time for Dusty.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#303005) #
I'm genuinely curious as to what you mean by "everything".

I would guess that not everyone views the comments in nested mode, so you might want to contextualize your remark by citing a passage from the post you are referring to. Unless, of course, this is a broad, philosophical question meant for everyone (whatever I mean by "everyone").

Jevant - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#303006) #
Lylcemcr, in the comment "6-14 in one run games tells you everything"?
Jevant - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#303007) #
6-14 in one run games now

That tells you everything, IMO.

Lyle, I'm curious as to what you mean by "everything".
Chuck - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#303008) #
Dustin McGowan's "performance"

McGowan was outpitched by Jeff Francoeur. There are some tea leaves for you. Too bad his unlikely return to the mound, after so many setbacks for so many years, didn't have more of a Disney flavour to it. He has earned over $6M so can take solace in a comfortable retirement.

hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#303009) #
Thanks, Chuck, never used nested mode before. Tried it and the world suddenly makes sense once again.
Jevant - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#303010) #
I would guess that not everyone views the comments in nested mode, so you might want to contextualize your remark by citing a passage from the post you are referring to. Unless, of course, this is a broad, philosophical question meant for everyone (whatever I mean by "everyone").

Didn't realize that - thanks.

Although I suppose my philosophical side is curious to hear how everyone would answer such a question. :)

Spifficus - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#303012) #
I had no idea about nested mode, either. I'll second that it brings some order back to the chaos. Also, thanks as well, Chuck.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#303013) #
The "everyone" comment was thought provoking to me. So 6-14=20. Therefore to be fair 10-10 or 11-9 for every team gives fairer results. But that is not the real world.

Continuing with the real world as seen through my eyes, we most likely will not get all of a good bat, SP or RP through a trade. If we get 1 and his results are good for us we still cannot say which option will produce the most wins or value. The bat & RP should play in more games than the SP.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#303014) #
Not all one-run games are an indictment of the bullpen. Last night's one-run game was actually a 3-run game where the offense's would-be comeback fell just short. The Jays' bullpen, in fact, logged 4 shutout innings to even allow room for a potential comeback. The bullpen deserves credit for the one-run loss.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#303015) #
Yeah, I thought along similar lines last night after reading the comment and checking the White Sox boxscore. They were down 3-0 late. Instead of mounting a comeback, their bats just crawled in the weeds and died. I'm thinking "how exactly is that better than coming back, but falling a run short?"
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#303016) #
Now that AA has seen up close how terrific and uplifting young inexpensive stud pitchers can be instead of those over-the-hill expensive types, let's hope he is cautious with what he gives up in the next couple of months - I'm not against trading quality prospects but not for old/expensive players.

Imagine a rotation of some combination of Sanchez/Syndergaard/Stroman/Hoffman/Osuna/Norris/Castro/Boyd- that excites me.

That throw-in to the Dickey trade - Wuilmer Becerra ( whom I think the jays signed for 1.55m) is having an encouraging season & still only 20 y.o - what a disaster that trade is.
Dewey - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#303017) #
Hi jerjapan.   So, we cross swords again.  Collective nouns can be contentious; and I can't get terribly fretful about them, I'm glad to say.  (The "they" in your comment, however, is plainly a plural.  "Demographic" isn't.)  But I threw out the "[sic]" there primarily because I was ticked off at you for your too-easy generalization about oldies.  (Sort of like Chuck's 'un-zen like' tirades about bad radio personnel.)  I don't think you should "[stick . . . to your guns on … the characterization of older viewers IN GENERAL.]  I'm not sure attaching age to attitudes makes much sense, period:  it's more about being a casual fan rather than being nutbars like us. Fans who are now oldies, after all, started up SABR decades ago (I still have my membership pin, somewhere); it was now-oldies who took to, and took up, Bill James when he first appeared in his unpolished, stapled-together forays into some new ways of thinking about baseball in the early '80's.  James himself must certainly be in the older demographic by now, isn't he?   (I grew up on stats —yeah, old stats — from the pages of The Sporting News. When I was in grade school I could probably rattle off Phil Cavarretta's batting averages for his entire career to date.) 

In short, (heh), I think a lot of the squabbling between 'statheads' and others has to do with it being 2015, as Alex Obal reminded us above.  We live in a time of polarized attitudes and partisan politics.  Things are usually seen as black or white (and hence become bloody); you're either with us or against us, and so on.   In my experience, however, things are mostly a foggy gray. (Magpie's 'respect the fog' should be kept firmly in mind.)  Aristotle (now there's an older demographic) espoused the golden mean.  So should we.  Data is essential; but it's not everything. 

I hope I don't forget to take up uglyone's Stoeten-like disdain for 'intangibles'.  But that's another post altogether.  I've shot my bolt, for now.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#303018) #
"6-14 in one run games now

That tells you everything, IMO.

Lyle, I'm curious as to what you mean by "everything"."

The Blue Jays are crushing the ball and they have one of the highest run differentials in the league. Yet, they can't win the close game. Ie. Their bullpen can't handle close games.

Mike had a great post earlier on this
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20150612125958707

I live in Seattle and I watch the Mariners fall apart this year. I think it has alot to do with Rodney falling apart. He was the backbone last year. This year, he stinks and the team does to.

Or, we can talk about KC. That bullpen... is wow. Strong closer anchoring it...

The Jays do not have that closer to anchor that pen. Thus, they are 6-14 in 1 run games. I think that tells me alot.

Oceanbound - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#303019) #
Woah. In last night's Phillies horror show (Francoeur made 48 pitches because their bullpen phone was off the hook), McGowan gave up 5 homers in 3+ innings of relief. Yikes.
jerjapan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#303020) #
"I'm not sure attaching age to attitudes makes much sense, period: it's more about being a casual fan rather than being nutbars like us. Fans who are now oldies, after all, started up SABR decades ago (I still have my membership pin, somewhere); it was now-oldies who took to, and took up, Bill James when he first appeared in his unpolished, stapled-together forays into some new ways of thinking about baseball in the early '80's. James himself must certainly be in the older demographic by now, isn't he?"

Fair enough Dewey - far be it from me to disparage the contributions of the trailblazers who started us off on the statistical path, or the Bauxites who refute my simplistic generalization! It was Bill James himself who introduced be to the concepts. And my girlfriend would certainly agree with the "nutbars like us" comment.

As an aside, the greatest pleasure I've derived watching the last two games was her comments about the Mets uniforms on Monday - 'why do they make those poor men dress like that?', 'they look like hobos', etc.
Spifficus - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#303021) #
To me, the bullpen's performance has been fine, especially since May. They have a 3.44 ERA overall, and have 9k/ip. They've been particularly effective at holding the team close until the offense goes on one of their patented barrages. That said, I do think they're a little short on depth for reliable late-inning arms, and a closer is one option to help that by bumping everyone down a rung (with Cecil taking on Primary LH Setup Guy, in particular). I don't, however, feel they've been an incendiary group now that the starters aren't making them pitch 5 innings every night.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#303022) #
85bluejay - the Dickey trade isn't a disaster YET. The players the Mets received have contributed under 1 WAR, Dickey is at 3.8 WAR, and delivered surplus value both years prior to this.

I could write for an hour as to what went wrong in 2013 and probably 2014 also, but the problem wasn't Dickey. If the other players on the team had simply met preseason projections, Jays would have made the playoffs at least one of those 2 seasons, and losing TDA, Noah and Wuilmer would have been looked upon simply as the cost of doing business.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#303023) #
holy crap - nested mode?

why isn't this the default?
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#303024) #
Because it only takes a couple of seconds to change to nested?

Just as oldest first is the default, which I always change to newest as soon as the comments start coming.
China fan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#303025) #
"....what a disaster that trade is..."

That's the second time in recent days that I've seen people here casually describing the Dickey trade as a "disaster."  And I know it's becoming the unquestioned conventional wisdom among many fans.  So I won't be popular for saying this, but I just can't agree with the "disaster" description.  The Jays were fully aware that any or all of those 3 prospects could end up having good careers.  (It's actually far too early to be certain that any of them will have good careers, but let's assume that they all do.)  It doesn't matter.  They made the trade to give them a shot at the playoffs in 2013 and 2014.  That was the purpose.  It failed, but there's never any guarantee of success in a trade like that.  Any time you have a chance to acquire a reasonably-salaried Cy Young winner on a long-term contract for two or three prospects, it's a  defensible gamble to make, even if the gamble doesn't pay off.  I want a GM who has the guts and courage to take those gambles and make those efforts, rather than waiting year after year for prospects to pan out.  Every analyst in 2013, after the Marlins trade, believed the Jays had a good chance at the playoffs, so it was exactly the right time to reinforce the rotation by acquiring a strong veteran, in exchange for prospects who weren't going to help the Jays in 2013 anyway.

If you think the Dickey trade is a disaster, presumably you believe in hoarding your prospects (or carefully rationing them anyway).  So, just ask yourself: would you hoard your prospects today if the Jays had a chance to acquire a top starting pitcher of Cy Young calibre?  Pick the best pitcher in the National League, or even the second-best or third-best pitcher -- would you give up (let's say) Sanchez and Pentecost and a low-level prospect for him right now, knowing that it could spell the difference between playoffs and failure? Especially if you knew that he would agree to sign a reasonable contract (and option) for the next 3 years, as Dickey did?  I would do it, and I wouldn't care if it might be second-guessed a few years later.  Those are the gambles you have to take if you want to make the playoffs.   (For the purposes of analogy, I chose Sanchez and Pentecost as similar to Syndergaard and d'Arnaud, but choose any two other prospects if you prefer.)

If the Jays hadn't acquired Dickey, they would have been demonstrably worse in 2013 and 2014.  There was nobody else in the system who could have reliably produced the innings that he produced.  The Jays made a simple and defensible choice:  improve the team in 2013 and 2014, at a potential cost of a couple of prospects who might be missed in 2015 and beyond.  That's the kind of justifiable tradeoff that any team has to make when it believes that it is getting close to the playoffs.   it didn't work out, but it was a chance worth taking.  And it's the kind of chance that I'd like to see the Jays attempt again -- as soon as possible.
China fan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#303026) #
"....The players the Mets received have contributed under 1 WAR, Dickey is at 3.8 WAR, and delivered surplus value both years prior to this. I could write for an hour as to what went wrong in 2013 and probably 2014 also, but the problem wasn't Dickey. If the other players on the team had simply met preseason projections, Jays would have made the playoffs at least one of those 2 seasons, and losing TDA, Noah and Wuilmer would have been looked upon simply as the cost of doing business...."

I also agree with these points too.


Jevant - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#303027) #
Re: China Fan's 1:11 PM EDT Post

Agreed, 1000%.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#303029) #
i dunno hypobole - the weakest part of this site is the ability to make clear replies or quotes to other comments, imo. makes conversations harder to bave and follow.

nesting should definitely be the automatic setting, imo. i've been using this site near a decade and never realized it was there. that might make me dumb, but probably not uniqe.

and now that i try it, i notice it doesn't even take - i have to toggle each time the page refreshes.

i'd highly recommend making this setting the default, if possible.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#303030) #
I hate nesting as I have to search for the newest comments then.  Generally there is a bit of a stream going here, not 1001 different directions.  I figure that is thanks to the minor league / major league threads we have going at all times.  As a preference it would be good to be able to set it and forget it, I'm happy as is but to each their own.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#303031) #
FYI: you can set it under "Preferences" on the top right of the screen.  Knew it was around somewhere.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#303032) #
Wow, I know we learn something new every day, but today I've actually learned somethings! :)
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#303033) #
ah that's a good counterpoint about the newer comments.

I do know that newer sites have nesting that still dieects you to the new replies, but that would require an overhaul.

I'll go ahead and switch my preferences.....but then again if nobidy realky uses the reply to post option it probably won't be any good.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#303034) #
hmm. this "threaded" option might work.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#303035) #
Three Blue Jays on Canada's pan-am team. Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis and Shane Dawson.
Beyonder - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#303036) #
China fan. I won't speak for anyone else, but I read that comment as saying that the trade is a disaster today -- knowing what we know now. It said nothing about whether the trade was advisable at the time -- which is the question your post deals with. If AA thought he was obtaining a couple of years of Cy Young calibre performance from Dickey, he was quite mistaken. In contrast, most of the young talent he gave up continues to leave up to their promise. We can argue about word choice, but I think it's a fair characterization to call the trade a disaster, especially since we have only just begun to see contributions from Syndergaard and D'arnaud (and potentially Becerra).

You can hold this view without being committed to any general view about whether it is advisable to trade prospects for mature talent.

With apologies to JK Galbraith, sometimes the conventional wisdom is actually wise.
China fan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#303037) #
Speaking of the Pan-Am games:  I guess I should know this already, but what kind of team will the US and others be organizing?  Will there be top players involved?  And a mini-poll of Ontario-based Bauxites: are you planning to attend any of the games?   Are tickets hard to get?  Are you expecting good-calibre baseball?  Is it worth the drive to Ajax?  And how is the baseball facility in Ajax, where the games will be played?
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#303038) #
Any time you have a chance to acquire a reasonably-salaried Cy Young winner on a long-term contract for two or three prospects, it's a  defensible gamble to make, even if the gamble doesn't pay off.  I want a GM who has the guts and courage to take those gambles and make those efforts, rather than waiting year after year for prospects to pan out.  Every analyst in 2013, after the Marlins trade, believed the Jays had a good chance at the playoffs, so it was exactly the right time to reinforce the rotation by acquiring a strong veteran, in exchange for prospects who weren't going to help the Jays in 2013 anyway.

At the time, Gerry, Robert Dudek and I opposed the trade.  The basis for our disagreement was not the concept of trading prospects for an established player, but the particular names involved.  The three of us felt that Dickey was likely to be pretty good but not an ace, and that the price in prospects greatly exceeded what would be the market for such a player.  It is important to bear in mind that pitchers who perform as Dickey has over 2013-14 are always available on the free agent market.  While they typically cost somewhat more in $ than Dickey has, the difference is not huge.  All of us felt that the disparity between Dickey's "excess value" and the value of the prospects was too large. 

The fact that Dickey had won the Cy Young the year before was not a good reason to acquire him.  You do not want to pay for what a player has done the year before, but rather what he is likely to do in the future.  Those are often very different things.
China fan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#303039) #
".....pitchers who perform as Dickey has over 2013-14 are always available on the free agent market...."

My understanding is that the Jays have repeatedly tried to acquire this kind of pitcher on the free agent market, but have been repeatedly stymied by several probems:  some players don't want to play in Canada, some don't want to pitch in a hitter's stadium, some don't want to pitch in the AL East, and some aren't willing to sign unless it's a multi-year contract for $100-million or more.   I don't think it's accurate to say that these pitchers are "always available."  The free-agent market is not a grocery store where you can just fill up your shopping cart at fixed prices.


Gerry - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#303040) #
The baseball complex in Ajax has been upgraded over the last two years in preparation for the pan-am games. As far as I know there are two regular baseball diamonds for the games, as well as several softball diamonds within the complex. There are new lights, new screens, new dugouts, new bullpens and they are erecting bleachers the last time I went by there.

The standard should be triple A level. I had heard that the final was sold out but that was from a friend, I haven't checked myself.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#303041) #
I purchased tickets to Pan Am semi finals and bronze medal game. At the time of purchase last week, US vs Dominican and US vs Cuba games were pretty much sold out. Same with the final.

I live 15 minutes from Ajax. Ajax go train to Union is 50 minutes.

Someone reported that US Baseball wanted Byron Buxton if he wasn't called up before the tournament. He was called up a few days later.

AJ Pollock, Matt Shoemaker, Todd Redmond, Rusney Castillo, Jose Abreu...those were the bigger names who played in the 2011 tournament.

I purchased the tickets because they're cheap, general admission and from what I can see online, the park is fairly small so you can get right up to the diamond for great views. I'm hoping we can see some young studs like Hoffman or Glasnow or even Corey Seager.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#303042) #
my real problem with the dickey trade is i think it was one kf the rare times we sold low on a great prospect. Syndergaard was underrated at the time, especially in comparison to Dickey.

TDA i had no problem losing, and still don't. But he was considered the centerpiece of the deal when imo Noah should have always been considered that.
China fan - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#303044) #
Thanks for the Pan-Am info, Gerry and Dalimon5.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#303045) #
"I'm all for this deal. In a vacuum, it seems to be a large overpay. Yet for a team on the cusp of contention with a maxed out budget it was the perfect move.

My comment from the 2012 Dickey trade thread . Still stand by it.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#303046) #
At the time of the trade I was furious, I remember saying it was a fireable offense & hoping by some miracle it would not happen - the jays did not win in 2013/14 and now Syndergaard is as good as if not better than Dickey and is likely to get better with the possibility to become a TOP guy, while Dickey is likely to continue to decline - even if the jays win this year & given the mediocrity of the american league it's certainly possible, unless Dickey regains his TOP level, it wouldn't change the trajectory of the trade - with Syndergaard & D'Arnaud developing into above average performers (maybe even stars) & Becerra looking like he may be a major leaguer - this trade has a good chance of becoming the worst trade in Blue Jays history.

It's not the trading of prospects that's the problem. it's the particular trades - if we had given up the same guys for say 3 years of Johnny Cueto, I would have been on board. Similarly, with the Miami trade - expensive players on the wrong side of the age curve while giving up legitimate prospects
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#303047) #
The Blue Jays signed A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan not that long ago.  Whether or not those deals were good ones aside, it is clear that some free agent pitchers will come to Toronto.   During the 2012-3 off-season, free agent pitchers (aside from Kuroda and Greinke) included Anibal Sanchez, Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy, Andy Pettitte, Ryan Dempster and Kyle Lohse, at the top of Jeff Passan's list.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#303048) #
they will come if they think we can win.

our offense makes a much more attrsctive destination at the moment.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#303050) #
this trade has a good chance of becoming the worst trade in Blue Jays history.

Please give details on how you define "worst trade in Blue Jays history". Is it based on "what most people feel at the time", or what happens afterwards? If a trade can "become" the worst, many years after it was made (but didn't start out that way), then you're basing it on what happens down the road, not on circumstances at the time? Also, please rank the following trades in your list of all-time worst:
The list at: http://backinblue.kc-media.net/?p=3207
Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi


It's not the trading of prospects that's the problem. it's the particular trades - if we had given up the same guys for say 3 years of Johnny Cueto, I would have been on board.

And what if we did that deal, and Cueto pitched just like Dickey has for the last 3 years, or got hurt and barely pitched at all? Still on board? Or does it then become a bad trade?
Ryan Day - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#303052) #
if we had given up the same guys for say 3 years of Johnny Cueto, I would have been on board.

But you were never going to get 3 years of Johnny Cueto for the same package. Teams don't trade away young, ace pitchers with 3 more years of affordable contract; if you'd traded for the last year of his contract, you certainly wouldn't have been able to sign him to a cheap, 2-year extension.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#303053) #
Sanchez had a great 2013, pitched better than Dickey/ fewer innings, equal value last year, has been replacement level this year and is owed over $38 million beyond this year.

Haren was below replacement in '12, replacement/below replacement in 13/14.

Jackson has been a disaster, -3.6 WAR over 2 seasons, he's now a $13/yr million middle reliever, with another year to go.

McCarthy was below replacement for both each of the 1 1/2 yrs in Zona - good for Yankees after the trade.

Dempster was a disaster. So bad he retired halfway through his contract.

Lohse was good for a year, equivalent to Dickey last year, as bad as Dickey this year.

Finally, there's Petitte. I know his lifelong dream was to pitch in the RC for the Jays, so yeah, he was AA's big miss.






mathesond - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#303055) #
Ooh, is this a process vs. results discussion? Can't get enough of those :)
Alex Obal - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#303056) #
I'm planning on hitting a few of the Pan Am games... and had no idea they were selling out. Thanks for the heads-up.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#303057) #
My point wasn't that Dan Haren, say, was or was not a better pitcher than R.A. Dickey at the time of the trade, or that he has performed better since, but that he was a pitcher of the same general quality (perhaps a little behind) and was available each year in the $10-$15 million range on a shorter contract.  The suggestion that Haren was below replacement in 2013/14 is one view of it (BBRef); fangraphs tells a different story with Haren being a better pitcher than Dickey by far over 2013-15. 
John Northey - Wednesday, June 17 2015 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#303078) #
I remember the Jays trying multiple times to sign guys in the $10-15 mil range and getting none of them.  Dickey looks like a bad trade due to 2 of the 3 prospects doing exactly what people hoped for so far while the 3rd is working his way up.  Odds were against that happening as normally something blows up when you have a handful of prospects.  Of course it hasn't been all sunshine and lollypops for the Mets.
Travis d'Arnaud: 16 games so far this year, 155 total with a 99 career OPS+  He is hitting very well this year but it is just 16 games.  With his injury history I sure wouldn't want to be counting on him.
Noah Syndergaard so far so good...7 games 100 ERA+with a 2.91 FIP.  He left here as an A ball pitcher - the flameout rate for A ball prospects is sky high, the Mets got extremely lucky here to have grabbed one who not only reached but has been improving as he went.
Becerra was in rookie ball as a Jay with a 734 OPS - the odds of getting a star at that point is low.  You never should let a rookie ball player stop you from making a trade.

In truth the only guy at the time I was nervous about was d'Arnaud but with his injury issues I expect him to move to 1B at some point within the next 3 years.  When trading for a solid starting pitcher you should not let an A ball pitcher and rookie ball shortstop stop you from making the deal, and you had to give some value or it wouldn't happen.  Yes, we all wish AA had found a lesser pitcher to use but Sanchez and Norris were the other rumoured players iirc.
uglyone - Thursday, June 18 2015 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#303111) #
yeah TDA is 26 already, has some serious defensive and injury issues, and while he's been hot at the plate his last few months he was ice cold for even longer before that, and his recent hotness comes with some weak underlying numbers.

Ignoring what we traded him for, i think we traded TDA at the perfect time - at peak value. He was still being considered a top prospec5 despite being at least a year older than every other prospect, and 2-4 years older than most. He had good power but the rest of the numbers were mediocre, and he had the aforementioned defensive and injury isses. Never had a problem with that trade.

trading Noah really stung though. he was my favorite prospect. but even then, i'm not sure he's the shoo in for stardom that the hype says he is.
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