Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Boyd Keeps It Going in AAA

Matt Boyd's first start in AAA went well but Buffalo lost. His replacements in New Hampshire did not pitch well and lost. Dunedin has suddenly found the lumber, they put up seven in the first inning and cruised to the affiliates only win. Lansing lost, as their playoff chase enters its final week.

Charlotte 2 Buffalo 1

Matt Boyd struggled when he first moved to AA and that was a concern as he moved to AAA. His struggles lasted two hitters. Micah Johnson singled to start the game. Boyd then threw the ball away on a pickoff and Andy Burns added an error on the next hitter to send Johnson to third. A ground ball scored the run but Boyd settled down. Boyd never had more than one baserunner in any inning after that. He did give up a home run in the fourth. Boyd went seven innings, he didn't walk anyone, he struck out 8. Only one of the two runs was earned.

The Bisons only run came in the first inning when Luke Scott doubled in Andy Burns. Matt Hague did not have a hit, Scott had two as did Ramon Santiago.

New Hampshire 6 Altoona 7

With Boyd promoted Austin Bibens-Dirkx made the start. Bibens-Dirkx has been bounced around this season and his rust showed in the first inning, he gave up four runs and was hit hard. He settled down to pitch well over the next three innings. Jimmy Cordero came on for the fifth and he was wild and gave up three runs.

The Fisher Cats scored two runs in the third, with four ground ball singles. They also scored three runs in the last two innings to make the score look closer than the game really was. Singles were the name of the game for NH, they had 11 hits, 10 singles and one double. Jack Murphy, Dwight Smith, Jorge Flores and Shane Opitz each had two hits.

Lakeland 2 Dunedin 7

The D-Jays have found their bats. They struggled offensively, particularly in May but they have scored 52 runs in their last 8 games. In this game they scored all seven runs in the first inning. Christian Lopes had two doubles in the inning with two RBI's. Although they scored seven runs they had just eight hits. Lopes had three and LB Dantzler had two.

Luis Santos started and went 5.2 innings. He did allow the two runs but registered 8 K's. Alberto Tirado pitched the last 3.1 innings. The Tigers had three hits off him.

Lansing 3 Cedar Rapids 8

The Lugnuts are in a big battle for a first half playoff spot. Five teams are separated by four games as they fight for two spots with a week to go. The Lugnuts took a step back on Sunday, they were tied at two after six innings but lost. Shane Dawson gave up a couple of singles to start the seventh then threw the ball away on a bunt and two runs scored. Colton Turner gave up three more in the ninth. Dawson's line was 6 10 5 2 2 3.

The Lugnuts had only five hits, Ryan McBroom had three of them including a double and a home run.

3 Stars

3rd star: Ryan McBroom

2nd star: Matt Boyd

1st star: Christian Lopes

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, June 14 2015 @ 09:59 PM EDT.

Boyd Keeps It Going in AAA | 18 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

hypobole - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#302822) #

We've bemoaned the dearth of MI's in our system. The only real A/B prospect we have stateside is Urena. Lugo has been promoted aggressively, but has not shown much to make him more than a C and Thon is pretty close to bust.

Christian Lopes has been a bit of a disapointment as well, relative to his overslot signing bonus, but still think there's hope there.

I'll start with the negatives. He'll be 23 later this year, a bit old for prospect status at his level. Seems to be limited to 2nd base, guessing mostly because of his arm. His hit tool regressed even prior to being drafted, and has not shown up much prior to this year. And he seems to have a Ryan Goins combo of speed/power i.e. not much of either.

However, on the plus side, he is actually hitting this year. Up to 312/390/394 for Dunedin. And a lot of that seems to be his strike zone judgement. He has an 11.9 BB% vs 13.6 K% thus far, with the 0.88 BB/K ratio tied for 4th among 120 FSL hitters with 110 PA's. And he does seem to making the routine play defensively, with only 2 errors combined in the 41 games he's played the field between High A and AA. So is there hope?

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#302823) #

Hope? Sure. On the other hand, he's repeating high A ball at age 22 and has not really had any history of success.

hypobole - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#302829) #

You got me thinking, Mike.

Two hitters at the same level, both the same age, both putting up an identical line. One had been pushed a bit more aggressively and is repeating the level, the other had developed more slowly and had only played at lower levels. How much difference in future expectations for those 2?

uglyone - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#302831) #

for me age trumps repeating a level.

if they're the same age and same performance, then imo their upside is the same.

Lylemcr - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#302833) #

Matt Boyd is an example where a demotion helps
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/10/17/6991439/blue-jays-prospect-matthew-boyd-reflects-on-the-value-of-demotion-in

Is Boyd considered a top 10 prospect at this point? His numbers and his climb to AAA say that he is.

What is the story on Boyd?

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#302834) #

I don't know, hypobole. Say you look at a player like Kevin Pillar, though. He's drafted at age 22 and spends that year in Rookie ball and hits very well. He spends age 23 season in Lansing and Dunedin and hits very well (but isn't obviously way too good for either league). Although he was behind Lopes for age and developmental level and the odds were certainly against him at that point in his career, I doubt very much that the odds were worse for him then than they are for Lopes now. Pillar's progress to that point is probably evidence of above-average baseball learning ability which can carry a player a long way. Lopes' development is not consistent with that.

hypobole - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#302840) #

Except development isn't linear. Look at Joe Panik, who seemed to have a similar (and only slightly better) skill set to Lopes. Put up mediocre #s at AA at the same age as Lopes is now, but their BB/K profiles are very similar. I'm not saying at all Lopes will come anywhere close to the progress Panik has made since, because it's rare and SF player development for hitters seems to be about the best there is.

It's the unique 10-15 BB %/10-15 % K% ratio that leads me to believe he has pitch recognition skills, so there's hope. Pitch recognition, which in my mind kills as many prospects as any issue, is really difficult, bordering on impossible, to teach.

Gerry - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#302842) #

I think the age 22 season is always a big one for a hitting prospect. Some hitters struggle in their teens and at age 20 and then figure it out at 21 or 22. You hear that a lot regarding college players who bloom in their junior year when they are 21 or 22. I assume its related to the end of the maturing cycle for some players.

Once a hitter is 23 its more unusual to see that kind of breakout.

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#302844) #

Joe Panik's career path was much better than Lopes'. At age 20, he was in low A ball and hit .335 with a positive W/K. At age 21, he was in high A ball and hit .285 with a positive W/K. He moved up to double A at age 22. You can certainly see in Panik's minor league statistics a pattern of development that gave him a much better chance of success than either Pillar or Lopes.

I agree that contact ability is a very important skill for a young player, but there is more to it than that. It's possible that Lopes has turned a corner and will take double A by storm, but he does have to beat the odds in order to do so.

uglyone - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#302849) #

if we're looking at overage potentially late breaking infielders.....keep an eye on flores. at 23 he's a bit old for AA but he's showing legit potential in every area aside from power, which he has none of. and he's shown potential in fits and starts in previous years too.

MatO - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#302851) #

Lopes has already appeared in AA this year and in 14 games put up a line of .200 .268 .200 which got him demoted back to Dunedin I assume.

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#302853) #

Flores is 33/31 stealing bases over his minor league career including 4 of 10 this year. If you're 5-5 and you don't have any power and you aren't a tiger about controlling the strike zone (a la Eckstein, Pedroia and so on), it sure helps if you at least can steal bases effectively.

Nigel - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#302854) #

Flores is a fairly stubby 5-5 so stealing bases will never really be a big part of his game. I really like Flores' hit tool but his inability to draw walks is really the major hole in his offensive production. He is just too BA heavy in what he brings to the table. He has shown a modest improvement in the number of walks that he's drawn this year but still far less than what I think he needs in order to be successful. He also won't be a plus defender at any infield position.

hypobole - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#302855) #

Guessing Lopes was injury fill in and a let's see thing with his AA promotion. And yeah, even though he hit squat, his 41 PA's included a 4/5 BB/K ratio.

By hope, I didn't mean star, but there is a non-zero chance he could end up as a 1 WAR player in the majors, which is more than someone like DJ Thon, who's best-case scenario comp now seems to be Kevin Ahrens.

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#302856) #

Oh sure, Lopes might be a 1 WAR player, as might Flores. Tim Locastro might be a 1 WAR player too or even better than tat. Come to think about it, I might like Locastro's chances better than Lopes'.

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#302865) #

Devon Travis in the lineup as advertised for the F-Cats tonight. They're running out a nice lineup with Travis and Pompey at the top, and lead 4-0 early.

Gerry - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#302868) #

The Jays have signed 30 of their 40 draft picks including 8 of the top 10 and 15 of the top 20. Unsigned from the top 10 are #2, Brady Singer, a high school pitcher and #8 Danny Young a pitcher from the University of Florida. Young is pitching in the college world series.

Mike Green - Monday, June 15 2015 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#302872) #

New Hampshire is facing the Erie Sea Wolves, who have sent Warwick Saupold, Confesor Lara and Whit Mayberry to the mound. Now there's a trifecta of pitcher names.

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