Carryover to new thread:

John, I find it hard to believe that Aiken would fall to the 29 spot, although Jim Callis' tweet a while back that he would go higher than Hoffman because it's a weaker draft and he's better, may not be correct.

I like Beyonder's strategy of hitting high and if you miss, the pick's back next year. Though it'll be a dull outcome if they have to live with the small amount left over once their first pick money is gone.

JB, the Elliot link goes to the MLB page.

I'll be interested to see where Matuella goes. I'm kinda hoping he falls to #29 and gets taken there, despite the TJ and back issue.

The mocks listed on this site have Aiken falling to the point where it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to see him available when we pick (24, 31, and (18 & 21: two separate mocks for MLB pipeline) respectively. If he did fall that far, he should be an easy sign.

Here's some lowdown on Aiken, from a few days ago, Conclusion at the time was he could go anywhere from 10th to 60th.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brady-aikens-medicals-are-out-situation-is-still-cloudy/

The only problem is if someone of his talent falls that far what does that say about his issues?  The Jays lost the 16th pick (Yankees get it) for signing Martin.  Not saying it was a bad idea but it'll be interesting to see who the Jays could've had.

I remember my constant Disillusionment during the J.P. Riccardi's tenure with their drafting philosophy - those low ceiling college players who would then beat up on the HS kids in rookie ball and posters would get all excited.
The Deck McGuire pick aside (which I hated from the moment it was made), I've really liked this FO approach to the draft & how they've tweaked it each year - going for upside, not afraid to walk away after making quality offers & coming up roses the next year, chances with injured players etc.

I think with low pool money, this year may play out like 2013 when they lost the Bickford money (I think they knew this was a distinct possibility) - The jays called a lot of names that surprised and took some excellent under the radar prospects (Boyd,Graveman,Locastro,Dantzler,J.D.Davis,Jansen etc.) - Signability will be a major consideration.

I would love Allard or Aiken, not Matulla, his back issue concerns me too much - If they take a tough to sign guy and end up punting the pick, that's okay for me.

Lots of mock drafts have Aiken going to the Dodgers.

For what it's worth, Keith Law claims that the Blue Jays lowballed Bickford. I'm not a Keith Law fan for a variety of reasons but he doesn't make stuff up, and is usually very careful about what he says about these sorts of negotiations.

That's true Beyonder - I like Law very much, but he was also very confident that the Jays had a prearranged deal with Breede in 2011 - Maybe the Jays lowballed Bickford relative to his very high (4M?) asking price - I usually take all those pronouncements with a grain of salt.

What does lowball even mean? Under the $4 million he wanted? $2.9 million slot for the 10th pick? Underslot?

No one I'm aware of thought Bickford was worth the $4 million asking price or the 10th pick in the draft.

Maybe lowball just means "what he was worth'.

The Yankees do not get the Jays pick. The Jays are just removed from the order, and everyone below them slides up one. Martin was signed as a free agent from the Pirates, so it has very little to do with the Yankees (other than having the next best record after Toronto last season.)

What does lowball even mean?

Lowball: for much less than actual value
usage- The Blue Jays made a lowball offer to Josh Donaldson in arbitration, knowing that his skill set would be underappreciated.

Also: a less well-known cocktail than the highball and what catchers usually call for...

Seriously, the concept of what is fair or actual value for draft picks is pretty much impossible to measure. 

Could also be a symptom resulting from a long, hot shower.

I used the word lowball. Keith Law said it was a"below slot offer" that the Jays made to Bickford.

A giraffe walks into a bar....

Fun Fact - According to Forbes, When Ken Griffey Jr. (1987) enter Cooperstown, he will be the first #1 overall pick to do so - shows just what a crapshoot the draft is.

In discussing the Jays Beede situation, Law has said that an issue arose that scuttled negotiations that the Jays cannot be faulted for. I've tried to press him about what the issue was, but even years later he refused to say what it was.

Yeah, below slot WAS Bickford's actual value, at least according to everything I had read prior to the '12 draft.

Betting cuttlefish he will not get anywhere close to $2.9 million this time. I'm guessing around $1 million (if that) if he signs.

Lowball: for much less than actual value
usage- The Blue Jays made a lowball offer to Josh Donaldson in arbitration, knowing that his skill set would be underappreciated.

That is such utter nonsense. The Jays negotiated with Donaldson but they didn't reach an agreement. The Jays arbitration offer had to be less than what they offered him otherwise nobody would ever settle before arbitration. The Jays offer was closer to his real value than his agents offer, so the Jays won. Had the Jays lowballed him, Donaldson would have won. This is more a demonstration of a proof by absurdity than a definition.

Curious to see what Bickford will get here. He just tested positive for marijuana in the pre-draft testing. Sweet. Leaf.

For what it's worth, Keith Law claims that the Blue Jays lowballed Bickford. I'm not a Keith Law fan for a variety of reasons but he doesn't make stuff up, and is usually very careful about what he says about these sorts of negotiations.

I don't know Beyonder. I respect your opinions, but I'm not sure what you base this one on when you say he is "usually very careful about what he says about these sorts of negotiations." As 85 pointed out, he wasn't particularly careful (or accurate for that matter) about Beede. Anthopolous is normally very tight-lipped and if there was a leakage of negotiations I suspect we would hear the same from other sources, perhaps more credible than Law. I suspect Law is simply speculating, much like he was with the Beede 'deal' referred to above.

In his last mock which just went up, Callis has Bickford and Matuella (my guy) both available at 29 with the Jays taking either HS RHP Donny Everett or HS OF Nick Plummer. Mayo has Josh Naylor still available with the Jays taking OF Eric Jenkins instead (can't see that if Naylor is there). Both have Matuella going to the Tigers at 34.

No worries. I base my view on actual attempts to tease out details from Keith Law about draft-related things over Twitter and email. He's actually generous with his time and likes to gossip, but he ends the conversation if you try to push on something confidential.

And I would say there's a distinction to be drawn between Keith Law saying that he heard about a pre-arranged deal, and saying that he knows the jays made a below slot offer to Bickford.

I would love for the Jays to take Nick Plummer but apparently the Jays want Matuella

I would love for the Jays to take Nick Plummer but apparently the Jays want Matuella

Can I ask where you read that Finch? I"ve been promoting Matuella love today, for no other reasons than he's 6'6" had been ranked as high as 3rd and has that Duke connection to Canada. Of course, we nothing about any of these guys, but it's fun (for me at least) to speculate.

Matuella seems like a Jays type of pick in the Smoral / Hoffman mould - high talent pitcher whose stock has dropped due to health issues.

I expect the Jays to end up with a pitcher. 29 is forever...

Good for Josh Naylor.

Giancarlo jr,

The Cubs get Happ and the Yankees get Kaprelian.  They're the ones I liked from among the top 20, aside from the shortstops.  There are still lots of interesting names out there. 

I believe only 2 Jays on the 25 man were 1st round picks.

Who?

Bickford to SF with the 18th pick.  Bet he gets a lot worse offer than the Jays gave him.

Donaldson Dickey

Donaldson was comp like Sanchez, Cecil.

18th is $2,333,800

Smoak and Dickey.

Thank goodness Richie Martin is gone - many had him to the Jays - not upside enough for me.

They way everybody is picking a short stop, there should be a few good pitchers left.

Cleveland takes the chance on Aiken with the 17th overall pick (ie: if the Jays didn't sign Martin they might've taken Aiken as they would've had the 16th pick). An odd team to take the chance and an odd time of the draft.  I figured very early or very late.

Good call, Eephus.

Would have liked Nikorak.

Say, are there any players who declared they won't sign who aren't drafted yet?  IE: guys like Rowdy Tellez?  Hopefully the Jays find a few like that again in later rounds.  My hope is the Jays swing for the fences with their picks - go for the best talent you can find.  The draft is the one way you can get those types at an affordable cost.

The Jays don't have the ability to raise money to sign over slot this year. Key is to take the best available guy who will sign for slot.

Well Jim Callis says we got "a steal" for whatever that's worth.

First pick is Jon Harris....RHP from a Junior College.
From MLB.com....
In a spring in which many of the top pitching prospects have either gotten hurt or regressed, Harris has been a pleasant surprise. He has boosted his stock as much as any pitcher with the exception of UC Santa Barbara's Dillon Tate and looks poised to become the second-highest selection ever out of Missouri State, trailing only Ross Detwiler (No. 6 overall in 2007). A 33rd-round choice by the Blue Jays out of a Missouri high school three years ago, Harris took a step forward in the Cape Cod League last summer and has continued to improve as a junior. He works comfortably at 92-94 mph with his fastball, and it plays up because it has run and sink and he uses his height to deliver it on a nice downhill plane. He has added some strength and his 6-foot-4, 190-pound frame still has room for more, so he could pick up more velocity. His curveball, slider and changeup are all plus pitches at times. Harris has power and depth on his breaking balls, and he has made huge strides with his changeup and trusts it more than before. He also has improved his command and is doing a better job of pitching inside with his fastball.

Thumbs up

No video Jon Harris in a Blue Jay uni pinning his name up on the wall on mlb.com.

Kyle Holder was the shortstop I liked from the 2nd tier.  Unfortunately, I am liking the Yankees' draft.