Posted a link yesterday to the FG story on low OBP, high SLG teams being better off adding more of the same. Astros are the poster boys for this idea - brought in Conger, Valbuena and 2 of the ultimate examples in Colby Rasmus and Evan Gattis.

#23 in OBP, #4 in SLG. 2nd best record in MLB. Helps (a lot) FG ranks their pitching 5th in MLB, but their hitters rank #11.

Re. that Fangraphs article, there's a similar point about a top hitter providing more value to a good offensive team than a weak one -- i.e., he'll add more runs to an offence when surrounded by good hitters than he will surrounded by poor hitters. Which means the Blue Jays might be advised to look for more hitting rather than more pitching. Depends what's available, of course. Finding a good reliever's always easier than a good hitter. But I wonder if the Jays and Cubs might, at some point, line up on a trade -- young pitching for young hitting.

hometown scorer should call that an error.

A good hitter cannot do much in isolation. Gotcha. Is it the same for a pitcher? Would a guy like Felix Hernandez have more value for a team that already has lots of good pitching like Washington than for Toronto? I don't think so.

A pitcher might be better suited to a specific ball park or benefit more from a good defense than another who simply strikes guys out, but a good starter will improve any team that doesn't already have 5 better ones.

It seems like a good pitcher who can only go 5 or 6 innings will do better on a team with a solid bullpen.

Also, early in the year, April and May, pitchers are ahead of the hitters.  Barring injury, the Jays offense should be solid from now on.

sanchez is making me a believer.

it was that last crazy walk game that i thought he started looking better, and he's really rolling now.

if he can throw strikes like this he can be good.

It's working.  Green says that Reyes is going to be so-so over the next three years.  Bingo, motivation.  Green says that Colabello can't sustain a .453 BABIP.  Bingo, motivation.  They ought to pay me for this, as humiliation motivation seems to work better than the soft positive kind!

keep your good work Mike, you evil genius.

and come on, Sanchez, one more inning.

Great to see Sanchez having success in the rotation. I've missed on lots of prospect predictions, but I'm feeling pretty good about remaining on the Sanchez bandwagon these last couple of years.

I agree with your comments on pitchers, Scottt. Although if you have a team with a bad offence and four good/great pitchers, you'd probably be better off adding another good starter than would, say, the Blue Jays, as the extra hitter wouldn't add as much value to your offence. It's really about relative value. Theoretically, and counterintuitively, the Blue Jays, with the best offence in baseball, ought to be willing to trade more for a good hitter than any other team in the league. Other teams would trade more for good pitching.

I don't mind that ending.  Sanchez threw strikes and some good ones in the ninth inning. Excellent start.

I agree, Mike. That ending'll do.

What a game by both Sanchez and Osuna.

doubront with another nice outing for buffalo.

our SP look fine for now but doubront might be a perfect fit for the bullpen.

Brooks Baseball confirms what we were all generally thinking watching that game:

93 Fastballs (5 could-be changeups in the 91mph range, another 3 four-seamers, and the rest two-seamers), vs 6 curveballs, and a return of the slider for 4 pitches (75% strikes!). That curve (and Springer's swing) in the ninth was hilarious.

It was fun to watch him dominate (in that GB-inducing way) with basically one pitch.

Also, even with Sanchez not quite able to finish things up, the Jays still lead the league in complete games with 5. If he could have went the distance, they would have been double the Astros, who are second with 3.

batting order suggestion for leadoff to sixth:
Reyes
Colabello
Bautista
Donaldson
EE
Martin

What do you think ?

Yeah, a defensive team with 4 good pitchers might want a 5th one, but if they're thinking about the playoffs, they're probably better off with a hitter as the 5th pitcher will only displace someone in the pen.

Are there any holes left in the Jays offense? Reyes is hard to move from SS. Davis should come back to 2B eventually. CF? Pillar is third in WAR on the team. Where do you picture another hitter?

"Also, even with Sanchez not quite able to finish things up, the Jays still lead the league in complete games with 5. If he could have went the distance, they would have been double the Astros, who are second with 3."

what's even cooler about that is that gibby hasn't even had to push them to get those CGs. did any of them even need 110 pitches?

heck, has any sp thrown over 110 pitches in any game yet?

Burhle threw 111 in each of his first two CGs, and that's been it. They've really conserved themselves well; in April, through their efficiently horrible performances, and in May, through their efficiently effective ones.

Wow. Buehrle. I may need more coffee.

I'm wondering what upgrades are possible ala the upgrade to Donaldson from Lawrie.
1B: EE very hard to upgrade
2B: Travis cheap and good but not healthy Goins doing OK right now so I doubt an upgrade coming
3B: You must be joking
SS: Reyes $66 over this year plus the next 2 plus $4 mil more to get out of 2018 option - would have to take on an uglier contract to get rid of it.  Troy Tulowitzi is one of the best there is on offense and defense but has had injury issues.  'just' a 105 OPS+ so far in 2015 signed for 3 more years guaranteed and like Reyes has an option at the end with a $4 mil buyout.  Could a match be made to allow Colorado to reduce their long term deals and upgrade the Jays at SS? Rockies are 6 out in the NL West and dead last.
LF: Not hard to upgrade from Mr. DL Saunders but Colabello has been 'wow' on offense so far
CF: Pillar not hitting well but wow on defense with Pompey in AAA pretty much the same.
RF: Bautista needs more DH time but still would be very, very hard to replace.

SS sounds most possible, But would Colorado do that?  Would they require more in the trade than saving 3 years of mega contract?  With Goins looking decent as a backup option the Jays could probably risk the injury issues.

Dave Cameron had a pair of pieces recently on potential trades for Tulowitzki, listing the Jays as among the six likeliest destinations (though in the second tier behind the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox).

His comments on the Jays:

This is maybe the most interesting one, because the Blue Jays have the young arms the Rockies are looking for, and could send back Jose Reyes to offset Tulo’s salary. A deal including Reyes, Daniel Norris (#17), and Jeff Hoffman (#67) would almost certainly get the Rockies interested, and might even be enough going back to ask for more than just Tulo; at that point, maybe the Blue Jays get Justin Morneau with the Rockies covering his salary as well, or something along those lines. Whether the Blue Jays would want to trade two high-end pitching prospects for an upgrade from one expensive and oft-injured SS to another is an open question, but the Blue Jays could likely make a real run at Tulowitzki if they wanted to.

That's too high a price, I figure, for this particular upgrade. Cameron estimates a mid-June trade would provide Tulowitzki's new team 2.5 WAR over the rest of the season. That might be a 1 or 1.5 WAR upgrade on Reyes in 2015 (FanGraphs estimates his current rest-of-season WAR at about 1.3). Maybe you get a 2 WAR advantage in subsequent years (at a higher salary), but that would be offset by whatever contributions you lose from Norris and Hoffman. I might do it for one of those guys... probably not, actually... but certainly not for both.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-think-about-a-troy-tulowitzki-trade/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/troy-tulowitzkis-trade-value/

I'm also not sure why Cameron mentions Morneau. That's about the last guy they need.

Norris and Coors Field is a match made in heaven, and Morneau's glove has to be a step up from Colabello's. Send it in.

My first thought is 'no way' to sending both Hoffman and Norris.  One maybe, depending on how healthy one assumes Tulo would be I'd probably try to use 2nd teir pitching prospects from the Jays system first.  Justin Morneau is always interesting as a Canadian but he is defensively challenged 1B/DH and we're kind of overstocked there.  A  more likely is a 3 way, Reyes to the Mets, Tulo here, a few prospects to Colorado from both teams.  Colorado has a first year GM who might want to make his mark with a big trade of a fan favorite but it is risky and he needs immediate returns thus Norris is a reasonable assumption as part of a package.

I don't remember a season where at the 1/3 mark, there was no team in a league that was effectively out of it.  I feel that way about the American League 2015.  Oakland has the worst record in the league, but is actually a decent club.  The White Sox don't have much of a lineup but with Sale, Rodon and Samardzija at the top of the rotation, they could easily win their division.

It wouldn't shock me at all if no team in the league won 92 games. September could be well and truly wild.

Please can we stop with the giving away our farm system for slight upgrades? Didn't the Marlins and Mets deals teach us the drawbacks of that considering how many of those players are now productive MLB players? So put me as a big no on dumping Hoffman/Norris for Tulo. I'm fine with losing one top pitching prospect provided it brings us back pitching that we can keep for more than a year. But that's about it. If they can make bullpen moves that's cool too but that shouldn't require major prospects.

sanchez is making me a believer.

It's interesting that sanchez started to turn things around after adopting this approach: "Martin adjusted his approach with Sanchez recently, setting up right down the middle of the plate early in counts instead of on the corners. Both men feel that Sanchez’s pitches play better that way."

I wondered when they would try this...was the same formula that worked years back with Juan Guzman, another hard thrower with control problems from superior movement.

If you trade top prospects, it has to be for an MVP candidate with more than a year remaining. You're giving away several years of several players at low cost for 1 or 2 year of an expensive player.

I'd rather trade a hitter to the Mets for a young pitcher or two and I actually wouldn't do that either.

Sanchez needs to be a first pitch strike guy. Norris should be too, except with him they need to mix it up.

Tulowitzki makes Reyes look like Cal Ripken. And he has $98M guaranteed coming to him over the next 5 seasons (thru age 35), compared to $48M for Reyes over 2 seasons (thru age 34). Absolutely no way I'd give up 2 top prospects for him.

Tulowitzki has had multiple lower body injuries that apparently are sapping in his range.  When healthy, he's quite a bit better than Reyes but at this point, there's no reason to believe that he is healthy.  I'm with Jonny.

Tulowitzki makes Reyes look like Cal Ripken

Indeed. He has averaged just 117 games in his 8 seasons. He is on pace for quite a lot more this season, but it's early yet.

I don't know what to make of his offensive drop this year. His BB rate is down and his K rate is up. Both BBRef and FG suggest a defensive drop as well. And he seems to be turning homeruns into doubles, so perhaps there is a power drop in the works as well.

Tulo in his 20s would have been a thrill to have, if incredibly frustrating with all the injuries. Tulo in his 30s is someone I'd want to steer clear of. Lots of guaranteed dollars for his decline phase.

I don't get this Tulo love that the media is suggesting. Yes he's potentially an improvement on Reyes, but both are injury prone. Tulo has more dollars and term associated to him in his decline phase which too me is a negative not a positive. Therefore, apparently Tulo is worth so much more than Reyes over the next two years to cover both the negative aspect of additional dollars/term and 2 top flight prospects?!

Yeah I can see how people would say since AA overpaid to get Dickey that he might overpay again. But this is getting ridiculous. If anything, I'd like to believe AA learned from both the Marlins and Mets trade.

Anyways, I think Reyes has value in this lineup perhaps more so than Tulo. It's always great to add a middle of the order bat, but Blue Jays have plenty of those. Reyes gives you true leadoff hitter and I don't see anyone truly capable of meeting that need (Travis is a good #2 or #9 and Pompey just isn't ready right now IMO). My only issue with Reyes is his defence, not at all concerned with the offence part and I don't think Tulo defence can be counted on anymore to be that good.

More interesting question is whether you'd trade Reyes for Tulowitzki straight up. Obviously the Rockies would never do that, but in theory...

While Reyes is expensive for the production he provides (and he still has value), I think it's only fair to note that his decline has likely been accelerated by the fluke ankle injury he suffered in 2013. His contract would probably look better had it not been for that injury.

Reyes doesn't walk a lot though....

The AL's L/R OPS split is 719/706. The Jays are at 859/743.

The AL sees LHP in 28% of their plate appearances. The Jays are at just 21% and I wonder if this number won't come down. This is one mofo of a lefty-killing lineup (and soon Goins will be swapped out for Travis!).

Well I'm sure teams aren't going to bring in lefties vs our lineup, but there isn't much they can do about their starters. Teams are loathe to tweak rotation schedules.

No reason to take Hutch out after 6.1. No need to use 3 relievers to get 5 outs. The stuff that bullpen implosions and dl'ed relievers is made of. Panicking your way through the end-game.

I disagree that it was a panic CDC - I think Gibbons wanted to get his relievers some work.  It'd been over a week for Delabar.

fangraphs is getting lost in the numbers again. the jays would be much better served upgrading an sp spot than ss.

reyes was smoking hot to start the year, and smoking hot since he got back. a fluke cracked rib is masking what looks like a very high level of play from him this year.

I'm not a fan of bringing Loup against the bottom or the lineup. That's begging for a pitch hitter.
Delabar could have finish his inning. Osuna did not need the 4 pitch workout.

If EE goes onto the DL or needs to rest, how about promoting 3B/1B Matt Hague who has been on 40-men roster, hitting very well in Buffalo ?

If anyone wants a fun read, of the schadenfreude variety, this Boston Globe story may be right up your alley.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/06/05/red-sox-missed-plenty-red-flags-with-hanley-ramirez/4g45GOvQzM4Flto9hYoZiM/story.html?p1=Article_Trending_Most_Viewed#

That's begging for a pitch hitter.

Turns out that none of the pinch-hitters were pitch hitters.

I'm with CBDC.  Why Osuna for the 2nd straight day?  There were so many other options.  Continue with Delabar, bring on Hendriks or Cecil and let either finish the game. It was 5-2 with two outs in the 8th and a runner on.  This was not a situation that called for Osuna. Hell, you'd even give Cecil some decent leverage work...

We're over a third of the way through the season and the Jays haven't had a single pitcher hit the disabled list. #FireGibbons #WalkerSucks

i don't mind the aggressiveness in trying to seal the series win at all. especially since the pen is so underworked.

Using Osuna to close out the 8th with the Astros trying to make a bid to get close is somewhere between non-issue and a nice aggressive move as far as I'm concerned.

I thought that was inexcusable. I particularly like the message to Delabar that if the tying run is on deck, we don't want him anywhere near the mound.

I think Gibbons has actually been less awful than usual this year (how's that for a minority opinion, on both counts), though the starting pitchers have given him little choice this past month. Is it that he smiles when the team's winning, or that the team wins when he smiles?

I particularly like the message to Delabar...

Now we're getting into non-issues within non-issues.

Hutch is rounding into shape.

Now.... what to do about our Knuckleballer....

92-93, Marcus Stroman is injured

When did Smoak sneak up above .250 hitter?

Hmm... Not bad.

Tomorrow, the Blue Jays get the final piece of one of the best deals of the offseason. It's a trifecta of a deal.

For not signing Melky Cabrera, for not paying his reported request of 5/$75million to re-sign with the team, and best of all for not having to watch his cringeworthy post-PED performance now that he's hit pay dirt and is putting up the second lowest OPS (.530) of any qualifier in the American League, we get the #29 draft pick. To put the post-PED Melkster in perspective, his slg % is the worst among all qualifying position players in either league, and by a good margin. It's worse than 18 pitchers in the NL.

That deal works for me. Go Melkster!

A good question about the Jays doing upgrades is how do you get to the top?  Generally you need a few potential MVP candidates and upgrading when you get 'meh' production across the board is very hard.  In the lineup I thought about Tulo due to his having a good rep for defense and offense but if the defense is falling apart then there is no point.  EE & Bautista are already MVP type players (EE not having that type of year but could break out).  Martin also is.  That leaves CF (Pillar), LF (Colabello playing the best of his life), and DH (mix and match) and 2B (Travis if he ever gets healthy otherwise super defense in Goins) so very few lineup slots that can upgrade.

For pitching it gets messy.  Sanchez is really picking it up and is a kid so he sticks, Buehrle is having a good recovery and should be solid here on out in his walk year, Estrada has been OK (4.67 ERA as a starter), Hutch has been poor but is picking it up (last 6 games 2.82 ERA 5+ IP each time), Dickey though is the nightmare with an ERA over 5 but has got 5+ in all but one start (4 2/3), cracking 7 4 times so he eats innings at least. 

I think right now the best upgrade would be if someone would trade for Dickey/Thole or if they replaced Estrada.  Estrada is the most likely move as he was planned to be a 6th starter and is doing that role nicely.  The problem is he is doing well enough that you don't want to yank him for a minor leaguer unless it is a kid tearing apart the minors.  The only guy who fits that is Matt Boyd with his 1.08 ERA in AA.  But you have AAA guys like Doubront with his 1.00 ERA in 5 starts and Wolf 2.56 in 11 starts (and an opt out clause), and Copeland with his 1.97 as a starter in AAA.  So 3 minor league vets who have earned a shot and a hotshot kid in AA who is putting up video game numbers.  Time to give one of them a shot and move Estrada back to the pen imo while hunting for a high end starter in a trade.

I dunno, john. Estrada was a bit shaky when he was getting stretched out in his first couple starts but his last 4 have been solid (3.96era 3.76fip in 6.2ip/gs). I doubt any of those milb options would do better.

but i agree that replacing estrada with a #1 sp would be the biggest upgrade we could possibly make, and estrada would bolster the bullpen, too.

You sell high and buy low. Trading an underperforming starter for one that is overperforming would cost a bunch of prospect, maybe for nothing.

Martin's catching RA which is nice but Navarro's name in the DH slot. I'm hoping that this is only because EE needs the rest for his legs. Is this AA playing chicken with potential trade partners who have been trying to lowball him on Navarro? Rebuilding his value after injury? They're not getting a useful SP or even a good RP for him, but a true OF with above average defence, would be nice so that Smoak and Colabello can fight for the job at 1B. Maybe AA merely likes Navarro as a player. Maybe Navarro never truly wanted out as much as the media reported? Who knows?

The time to make a move, whatever the move is, is early, if the Jays are going to make a move. There's only so much surplus value one can wrest out of an impending FA from the July-August on... that said can anyone truly see the Jays making a significant deadline deal? Not that such things are the best idea, but... it wouldn't take much to improve this team.

There is a problem whenever one suggests selling high and buy low... where are low and high? youneverknow.

EE just had a cortisone shot in his ailing shoulder, reason for being out today,

They certainly have no record of trade deadline deals.  with the frustration on the team last year for not making a deal, and some clear areas of need, Id say there's a good chance we make a medium-sized deal this year.  AA couldve spent a bit more in the off season, but waiting till the halfway point allows him to get an impact player for the same price. 

As for the fifth spot in the rotation, Estrada has looked solid - the AAAA likely have a ceiling equal to Estrada, so why make the switch?  I'm thinking that the team is waiting for Norris to get on a roll before making a move.  But if Dickey continues to struggle, who moves to the pen? 

Boyd and Doubront are wildcards to me.  If boyd continues his dominance, he may force the teams hand.  Doubront was highly touted not too long ago and has looked great in AAA - anyone think he has a chance to start again in the bigs?

EE has a shoulder injury and is recovering from a cortisone shot. He should be back in a day or two,

Dickey so far this is year has the worse numbers he's put up in 10 years, basically since he started throwing the knuckleball. That is LOW.

carrera's played well enough that if they really felt the need to put a legit defensive OF out there he would be in there.

EE's obviously banged up, so navarro is getting a start. And i'll disagree - the jays should be able to get something good for a legit league average catcher.

and yeah i have no doubts that we make a big deadline deal if we're in contention.

The problem is that with the second wild card, there's too many buyers and not enough sellers. The best bet is probably a trade like the Gose/Travis deal.

i think panic time with the SP is over.

The jays have arguable had the best starting pitching in baseball over the last 2-3 weeks. ERA barely over 2 while averaging over 7ip per game.

we still should be looking for a real top end upgrade but as for now i think we can hold course.

last 15gms (3gs each):

Hutchison: 6.9ip/gs, 2.18era, 2.34fip, 2.87xfip
Buehrle: 8.4ip/gs, 2.49era, 3.51fip, 4.71xfip
Sanchez: 6.9ip/gs, 2.18era, 4.57fip, 3.70xfip
Estrada: 6.7ip/gs, 4.05era, 3.47fip, 4.78xfip
Dickey: 6.7ip/gs, 4.95era, 4.02fip, 3.33xfip

for now we can breathe a little i think. no reason to remove any of them at the moment.

Thanks to those who passed on the news about EE.

The idea floated of a Travis-Gose deal is interesting. What the analog Norris for ?

Guess you're asking about an analogous trade using Norris, but Norris is not someone that's in an area of surplus - Buehrle and Dickey will be gone,unless the Jays think R. A. will be worth $11 million next year.

For a smaller deal, Navarro makes the most sense, for an impact player, EE (assuming the Jays believe in the bats of Cola and/or Smoak).

Today would be a perfect opportunity to have Colabello DH and Carrera in left-field.  The defensive gain over the current lineup would be huge and the offensive loss, if any, would be minimal.  Navarro has caught two of the past four games and there is no burning necessity to play him today. 

Ideally we'd hold onto Navarro and add some more pieces through trades. Getting a hopefully healthy Saunders back will help. Same with Travis. An elite SP, another reliable RP, and possibly a LH OF bat would be ideal. Stroman could be another RP piece come Septmeber. And then Norris/Boyd/Pompey could be more options later in the season, by Sept for sure.

Batting Colabello/Navarro fourth and fifth and Smoak seventh is weird. 

With the possibility of Saunders, Travis, Stroman, other rookies coming back, Johnny Beisbol would be my #1 trade target. Hammels would be but I don't think he's willing to come to Canada.

"Guess you're asking about an analogous trade using Norris, but Norris is not someone that's in an area of surplus"

au contraire.

imo, stroman/hutch/norris/sanchez/hoffman/osuna/castro is definitely an area of surplus we should exploit.

of course, for me, that means using one or t2o of them in a trade for hamels or cueto.

Re Mike Green: How about Navarro to catch again today because of opposing RHSP.

Today would be a perfect opportunity to have Colabello DH and Carrera in left-field. The defensive gain over the current lineup would be huge and the offensive loss, if any, would be minimal.

So far, it'd be a one run difference.

I love any idea of the Blue Jays trading for Johnny Cueto because no matter what prospect capital Toronto gives up, I can potentially still enjoy them playing for the Reds. Do it AA! But that's just me.

Don't think it's much of a coincidence that Bautista's home run power has seemingly returned right around when his shoulder is good enough for the outfield again. Which just goes to tell you how great a hitter this guy is that he still hit like he did with one good arm.

Yeah, this "Colabello is a left fielder" fiasco has got to end soon.

Martin threw out Springer for his 19th CS vs 19 successful SB's - best % in MLB.

All last year Navarro threw out 15 base stealers while allowing 58 SB's.

Cueto would be awesome, and as a UFA, he might not cost us a Norris, Pompey or a Hoffman.   a package built around Pentacost and Reid-Foley?  He's owed just over 6 million more this year so he fits the budget.  

imo, stroman/hutch/norris/sanchez/hoffman/osuna/castro is definitely an area of surplus we should exploit.

of course, for me, that means using one or t2o of them in a trade for hamels or cue to.

I disagree on a bunch of levels. First of all, if they can get a solid rotation of 5 out a field of 7, that's very good and I sure wouldn't say there is an excess. Second, I have no idea why you would suggest Hamels. Beyond his contract which would require compensation from the Phils, he has apparently been crystal clear that he is not waiving a no-trade to go to Canada. He negotiated a no-trade to Canada. He has since said he won't waive it. Which leaves a short time of Cueto. I doubt Castro gets you Cueto and I wouldn't trade any of the others for him. Would be worse than Baltimore giving the Sox Rodriguez, imrv.

Cueto would be awesome, and as a UFA, he might not cost us a Norris, Pompey or a Hoffman.

I don't know about that. The United Farmers of Alberta knew how to negotiate. If he's a member of that outfit, I wouldn't count on him coming cheap. (Or at least not as cheap as this joke.)

ha!

Here's my theory on Navarro. First, he's not a "league average catcher" (to quote Uglyone) but actually quite poor when you account for his pitch-framing; most teams know this and aren't especially interested in him. Anthopoulos kind of knows it too; hence the Martin signing. Gibbons may also be aware, but he watched Navarro every day last year and was witness to all the clutch hits he came through with. That clutchiness is something other GMs ignore as a statistical aberration, if they're even aware of it, but Gibbons can't dismiss it so easily. The clutchiness he saw gets wrapped into a view of Navarro as a key offensive contributor and a guy he'd like to keep around. He pressures Anthopoulos on this, who might already agree, and in the end you get things like: (a) Navarro not getting traded because he's being valued differently by the Jays and other clubs; and (b) Gibbons DHing him today when he shouldn't be, and giving him priority over Smoak and Martin in the lineup (I think Mike's right on both those points).

So, yeah, that's my theory on Navarro -- total speculation which could be wrong in every detail.

I was watching Asbrubal Cabrera yesterday. His stats are horrible. I am sure happy we have Travis instead (or even Goins).

We didn't sign Melky. No regrets.

We didn't sign...

We seem to say that we don't regret signing free agents than signing.

That being said, I would love to see a new #4 or 5. I would hate to see Norris, Castro, Hoffman or Osuna go. I see Hoffman as the only don't touch. But, I think I value Castro, Osuna and Norris higher than other teams would.

@hypobole Against the Houston Astros which relies on basetealing and slugging for scoring runs, Martin is the obvious catcher choice. Mike Green appears correct for his assessment of Colabello at DH, Carrera at LF.

"Here's my theory on Navarro. First, he's not a "league average catcher" (to quote Uglyone) but actually quite poor when you account for his pitch-framing; "

meh. our pitchers don't seem to do any better with uber pitchframer martin than with navarro. and newfangled pitchframing stats may be missing the boat on game calling skills, anyways.

all the proven dependable metrics we have say he's league average.

and besides, baseball prospectus' impressive new pitchframing metric had navarro as an above average pitchframer prior to last year.

Read Stewart's comments re: Navarro

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/nl-west-notes-castillo-olivera-jansen-peralta.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1677256

Navarro pitch framing:

2010: +0.8 (35th of 113)
2011: -1.0 (78th of 112)
2012: +1.7 (29th of 108)
2013: +0.3 (48th of 116)
2014: -9.8 (103rd of 105)

so far any GM looking at pitchframing should probably be looking at last year as most likely sn outlier.

"First of all, if they can get a solid rotation of 5 out a field of 7, that's very good and I sure wouldn't say there is an excess. Second, I have no idea why you would suggest Hamels. Beyond his contract which would require compensation from the Phils, he has apparently been crystal clear that he is not waiving a no-trade to go to Canada. He negotiated a no-trade to Canada. He has since said he won't waive it. "

i would rather have a proven #1 up top and 4 kids underneath rather than need ace performances from kids.

and no trade clauses are negotiating tools. and they're never invoked when traded to a contender (if that's what the jays are at the time). any pitcher would love to pitch with this offense. and i don't buy rumors and whisperings of any kind anyways

oh dear god bullpen come through here.

Atta boy, Loup.

thattaboy loopy.

now give us a one run win, bullpen.

Yeah, I've seen Dave Stewart's comments. That's why I say "most teams" -- Arizona's the sort of team that might not be looking too closely at the numbers.

For the teams that are, their proprietary metrics are probably much better than what's publicly available these days, so the part where I say he's "quite poor" is also guesswork. We don't know enough, and that includes game-calling, as Uglyone mentions. Interesting numbers, though, Uglyone. He's also at -9.8 this year (3rd worst in baseball) for whatever that's worth.

No, sorry, I was looking at 2014 also. He's -0.6 this year.

bo schultz with a one run lead? yikes.

oh for chrissakes.

bo schultz in a one run game in the 7th.

wtf.

bo schultz with a one run lead? yikes.

The consequence of bringing Osuna into the 9th up 5 runs Friday, and using him unnecessarily again yesterday. Gibbons 'locks down' those big lead games and loses the close ones.

WTF is right.

throwing your 7th rp out there in this situation with a still rested pen isn't a consequence of anything i don't think.

just a weird decision.

Wow. That uh, didn't work too well.

The only thing I can think of as Gibbons' reasoning is Houston's performance against good heat, but it's not like Hendricks has a ho-hum fastball these days. He also has a lot better command and a track record of performance.

Without any details we're not privy to, this one sure is a head-scratcher.

Well, it's not such a mystery, is it? Osuna's not available and Gibbons had three innings to get through, so I assume he was planning to use Schultz, Hendriks and Cecil. He probably should've started with Hendriks in the 7th and seen how things went from there -- it could be a blowout one way or the other by the 8th, so I figure you use the better guy first, but Gibbons (like most managers) wanted the better reliever in the later inning.

not a mystery?

osuna would be the only guy to hesitate to use today, and even then using him today would hardly be abuse.

how does one guy being semi unavailable lead to using the depth callup in a high leverage dituation?

True. I guess that does highlight what this team needs, though - another late inning arm.

He probably doesn't want to use Delabar today either. There aren't a whole lot of choices. That's all -- not saying I agree with the move (said I didn't actually), just that it's no mystery what Gibbons was thinking.

Gibbons (like most managers) wanted the better reliever in the later inning.

This regrettably makes little if any sense. I don't think there is a major league manager who, first, puts himself into the situation where Osuna is unavailable because he brought him into a 5 run game Friday and used 3 pitchers, including Osuna, to get 5 outs Saturay, or second, uses Shultz in that situation anyway. Nobody brings in the last pitcher on the staff to protect a one-run lead in the 7th. It's pointless bringing in the better pitcher (Hendricks) when the game is already blown. I have to take Alex up on his suggestion that Gibbons has been less awful than usual this year. I haven't seen any improvement.

and not pinch hitting carrera for pillar there...i just dunno. gibbons didn't use to be like this i don't think.

If he doesn't want to use Delebar over Shultz, then Delebar doesn't have a role on this team.

Bo was a bit unlucky that inning. He barely grazed Marisnick's flapping jersey with a 1-1 pitch to start the inning. The next batter hit an oppo soft liner off the end of the bat for a single. Then Donaldson threw one away, and the Astros were off and running.

Not that I agree with Gibbons's decision to use him in that situation, but the inning could easily have unfolded differently.

Yeah, he actually looked okay. I'm with Greenfrog there.

"If he doesn't want to use Delebar over Shultz, then Delebar doesn't have a role on this team."

Good news, there is no Delebar on the team.

if we can't criticize the manager for using the 12th man in the 7th in a one run game with a rested pen, when can we?

Classic Kawasaki late-inning hit.

Good news, there is no Delebar on the team.

Hah! I'm having a horrible run of misspelling names lately. It's just a slump, I swear!

come on, boys, make it all moot.

p.s. lost in all the reyes-goins hoopla is that kawasaki is better than goins, too.

Oh, no. It's a one run game. Quick, fire Gibby.

Apparently I am the only one finding it ironic that Gibbons is being blasted for not having someone else clean up the 9th inning on Friday, because after all what are the odds that this bullpen could give up crooked numbers? I am not saying that I agreed with Schulz and personally would have gone with Hendricks given the top of the lineup, but the bullpen has basically eviscerated any confidence the man could possibly have in pitchers not named Osuna and Cecil. Oh, and I agree with Greenfrog, the Jays were BABIP'd to death that inning.

As for Delabar who was mentioned upstream, I have a sneaking suspicion that after the man broke down last year and his long road back to the MLB bullpen, besides not completely regaining Gibbons' trust yet he is likely not going to be used in back-to-back outings.

Whoa - that's something you don't see every day.

if they had called reyes out there i'd need a new tv.

Can we please just win this &*\%#@: game?

make up for that first run now, cola.

Got a pitch to hit. Missed it.

double steal p5kease.

edit: NICE

Had em all the way.

that is some piece of hitting there, cola.

fricken sweet.

Much obliged, gentlemen.

Nice is right....

I feel all pistons are starting to fire...

our baserunning this year has been absolutely phenomenal.

and gibber gets credit for a lot of that.

Wow.

A while back (when the Jays were struggling mightily), I said I was going to keep watching because the beauty of baseball is that you never know what you'll get a chance to see. This kind of falls into that category! A pinch hit double by Kawasaki was enough of an oddity, but holy cats! Weird infield fly, Bautista chugging around 3rd when I thought he was insane for trying to score...I love this game.

he is likely not going to be used in back-to-back outings

Yep. Hasn't happened all year, majors or minors.

After all of that, I have no idea what to say other than I was definitely entertained.

Smart move by Gibbons, having Bo soak up an inning in the middle of the game to keep Hendriks fresh for the eighth and ninth.

Ha! Nice one, Greenfrog.

That. Was. Amazing. This team could really use a bounce or two. We got a couple that inning. Not all luck tho, only out was absolutely smashed by JD. Fun weekend of baseball.

Colabello with a 17-game hit streak? Talk about the straw that stirs the soft drink.

If you're curious, it's rule 7.08(b) that says Reyes did not interfere with that pop fly, since his hindrance was not intentional.

at the risk of getting ahead of myself, a sweep of the marlins gets us back over .500 just in time for another set if AL east games (sandwiched around a home and home vs the mets).

Not only the 17 gamer for Cola, but also his 164 wRC+ (as of this morning) was best on the Jays.

You have to send Batista there because it is the winning run, and even if through defensive miracle he gets thrown out, you'll have 2 outs with cola on 2nd, so still a base hit away from winning.

When Reyes is healthy, he certainly is a lot of fun on offense. He stole 2nd like 3 times and I liked the look on his face after the time-out steal. And he isn't just a good base runner, the 2nd base crouch on the pop-up was clutch base-standing!

Exciting win for the Jays and great to keep the win streak going (and to do it with a one-run win).

On a different note: I find it annoying that Anthopoulos has been telling the media that the division is "wide open." In fact, the Yankees, winners of six in a row, are 32-25 - a record that is comparable to that of most division leaders. Even with their five-game winning streak, the Jays are 4.5 GB (and are behind two teams and have two teams right behind them).

It's still relatively early and the Jays have reasons to be optimistic about their chances of staying in the race, but the Yankees are doing very well and no doubt have a lot more financial resources to deploy in July/August than the Jays do. If the Jays complacently sit back and think that the division is going to be soft all season, they may find themselves out of it sooner rather than later.

This division IS wide open though ... the Yanks have 2 studs in both the OF and the pen, Pineda in the rotation, A-Rod, McCann, Texeira and that's, uhh, it.  Lotta holes to fill, and some injury-prone pitchers that need to stay injury free.  Boston is a mess, Baltimore misses weiters and has some badly struggling key guys in davis, hardy, pierce and tillman, tampa misses maddon and the concept of having an offence ...

AA is by no means being duplicitous ...

I called Jaystalk today - Ryan from Montreal. I hadn't called for maybe 6 years!

I don't think the bullpen is that bad, really. It's just that the manager doesn't seem to trust anyone. Maybe the relievers are more worried on being pulled on the next pitch than on making the out. That would expect the lack of performance under high pressure.

the Yankees are doing very well and no doubt have a lot more financial resources to deploy in July/August than the Jays do.

And don't have to worry about the umpiring.

I don't think Anthopoulos was being duplicitous. A bit breezy, perhaps. It's understandable; he wants to keep fans interested.

I don't think the bullpen is that bad, really. It's just that the manager doesn't seem to trust anyone.

The jays are now 6 for 22 in saves, dead last in baseball in save percentage. I wouldn't trust anyone either in high leverage. When they're needed, the bullpen is dreadful. If they had a league average save percentage, they would be in first place, despite the challenges of the starters, outfields, SS etc etc. The number 1 problem with this club is crystal clear, as it was in ST.

In the fall, AA said the bullpen cost him the playoffs and he would fix it. It's doing it again. Time to put up.

It's just that the manager doesn't seem to trust anyone. Maybe the relievers are more worried on being pulled on the next pitch than on making the out. That would expect the lack of performance under high pressure.

So not only is Gibbons' every pitching decision questioned but he is also responsible for the player's actual performance, or rather the complete lack thereof to date, in high-leverage situations. And to think that Mike and Magpie wonder why I casually throw around words like hate. Honestly, how many times does the man need to be burned before people stop wondering why he is skittish around dumpsters when everyone looks like a fire, and smells like a fire, and sounds like a fire? Or have his critics just missed this?

"Apparently I am the only one finding it ironic that Gibbons is being blasted for not having someone else clean up the 9th inning on Friday, because after all what are the odds that this bullpen could give up crooked numbers?"

The irony isn't lost on me, Hodgie. Great move by Gibbons to pinch hit with Kawasaki in the 9th, and I thought it was another solid day of bullpen handling. Schultz was Buffalo's closer and threw 2 effective innings in a 2 run game vs. Washington, so it didn't surprise me that Gibbons had more faith in him at that moment than he did in Delabar and Hendriks, both of whom had come up short the last time they were put into a high leverage situation. Osuna wasn't available, and while you could've argued for bringing Loup back out, Gibby said after the game that he doesn't like using him for too long and that he considers him as more of a situational type reliever. Ryan Tepera is the 7th reliever and not in the discussion. It is amazing how little Cecil is being used, though, so he may want to start bringing him into the game in that kind of spot. I'm sure Hendriks climbed back up the bullpen ladder today, and slots in as the #4 on Gibby's trust chart now.

TangledUpInBlue, I like your read on the Navarro situation, especially the point about his clutch hitting last year having an effect on Gibby. The White Sox have been getting atrocious performance from their catchers and seem like a natural trade partner for the Jays; they have a bullpen stocked with arms that could help over here. I do like having Navarro around, though, so if nobody is willing to give back a viable MLB piece it's not worth handing him away. Martin does seem like a durable beast, but one freak occurrence and you never know.

Sergio Santos is now a FA. I wonder if AA has spoke with his camp.

Gerardo Parra would be a good add for the Jays. Solid defensive OF who hit .283/.332/.428 vs. RHP '12-14. Brewers can't be asking for much.

Sorry, I meant 6 for 16 in saves

I meant 6 for 16 in saves

I won't argue in the bullpen's defense, but I will say that some of those blown saves are really blown holds. I'm too lazy to check, but I'm willing to bet those 10 blown saves don't represent 10 losses.

Santos looks same as always - 13 1/3 IP 7 walks 15 strikeouts.  I'd give him a AAA contract but no more than that.
Rafael Soriano,is tempting to put it mildly.  He made $11 mil each of the past 3 years and $10 mil the year before that.  $5-7 mil for the rest of the year make sense?  Ideally with an option as the risk is minimal (just this year) and he is a solid closer which we could use here right now - the real value being moving Cecil into the earlier inning mix.  Wonder what he wants?  Must be getting desperate by now.

Every time Jose Reyes does something good, I wonder what Jerry Howarth is thinking.

I'm assuming that Soriano will become a member of the Yankees or the Red Sox. They have the money, and I don't think that Rogers will spend big bucks on a relief pitcher after what happened with B.J. Ryan. (Didn't he appear as a line item on Rogers' annual financial statement one year?) But then I didn't think that the Jays would sign a free agent, and then they went and got Russell Martin, so what do I know.

Agree with Northey about Santos; he can even play in New Hamsphire. More pitching, the better.

About Navarro, trade Navarro to D-backs for Saltalamachia and cash. trade Saltalamachia to BoSox for Sandy Leon and cash. Leon sent to minors or to some other teams for players; WhiteSox AAA Kottaras or Giants AAA Quiroz for the Canadian Jays awareness. By the way Kottaras' OPS is above .900 for about 100 PA.

IMO, Navarro alone would not get much asset back. Would any cash help future trades ?

If the Jays had a true closer, it would bring Cecil to be the Left-handed setup guy and Osuna as the right-handed setup. More importantly, Loup is in AAA or the left handed alternative, where he should be. The pen looks a lot deeper. Soriano would be great. With out the cost of minor leaguer.

If Norris comes back or they aquire another arm, Estrada is back in the pen. It makes you wonder more about the year if Stroman was healthy.

Travis should be coming back soon. Cola\Carrera look like a nice OF bat. There is not alot of holes in the offense. An upgrade to Smoak would be nice, but he has been respectable too.

Just keeping healthy will be the key.

Soriano tailed off badly in the 2nd half last year.

1st half / 2nd half
ERA: 0.97/6.48
Hard contact:28.4%/41.7%

Slash line 1st half:153/222/226
2nd half:299/359/509

He's thrown for interested clubs (including the Jays), but obviously hasn't impressed enough for anyone to meet his price so far. He just dumped Boras, which should help make a deal with someone sooner than later.

Yeah, with his brutal second half and diminishing stuff, Soriano was probably an upscale Janssen (with his better track record and still-good K numbers) and likely only in line for $7M or so. With teams likely only to get a half a season out of him, he's probably looking at half that.

Fun fact: on Friday morning, the AL East was a collective ten games below .500. After Sunday's games, the AL East is a collective one game above .500.

I had one of those drop-in games for the ages today, in the midst of doing various errands.  First drop-in, Wilner (Howarth's voice went AWOL for the day) calls Russ Martin's 2 run homer to put the Jays up 3-2.  Second drop-in, Dickey walks the bases full in the sixth and Gibbons calls on Loup who strikes out Conger to end the sixth (Siddall mentions that Schultz is warming in the pen and I curse).  Third drop-in, bottom of 7, Bautista has homered and I learn that Schultz had given up 4 runs (more cursing).  Fourth drop-in, bottom of ninth, Colabello up, 0-1 count, Reyes on second and Bautista on first, one out. and (thankfully) watching the TV.  Three pitches later, ballgame.

The double steal decision was brilliant (I don't know who made the call but let's give Gibbons the credit for it).  As it happened, it's conceivable that Colabello's hit might have gone for a game-ending DP had the Astro infield been playing at double play depth rather than in.  It was an excellent piece of hitting by Colabello- Gregerson got the pitch in a pretty good spot but Colabello didn't try to do too much with it.  I was also puzzled by the Astros' decision to not hold Bautista on in that situation.

Divisional Win%:

ALC: .523
NLW: .512
NLC: .509
ALE: .502
ALW: .486
NLE: .469

Divisional Run +/-:

ALE: +49
NLW: +28
NLC: +22
ALC: +1
ALW: -3
NLE: -97

yeah, don't buy the "weak AL East" narrative. we wish.

of course, on the flipside, it seems like the only reason our division doesn't have the best record in baseball is because your toronto blue jays are underacheving their pythag.

Former one-season Jays SP/RP Dana Eveland was releasaed too. His last season and this season so far has showed much lower BB/9. Looks like another J.A. Happ in performance ?

I'm not for signing soriano, myself. seems like a prime candidate to cordero for us, and i'd rather not be forced to keep using him due to his contract.

Divisional Run +/-:

ALE: +49

Most of this is the Jays - they are at +45. Boo-yah!

The double steal decision was brilliant

Credit Reyes. He says he told Bautista to be ready, that he was going to go.

I'm not for signing soriano

Likewise. I place weight on the fact that the Nats clearly weren't interested in having him back.

Credit Reyes. He says he told Bautista to be ready, that he was going to go

#streetbaseball

"Most of this is the Jays - they are at +45. Boo-yah!"

ALE: +49
TOR: +45
NYY: +30
TB: +18
BAL: -1
BOS: -43

Yanks and Rays don't look horrible in this light. Looks good on Boston. But the ALE doesn't appear to be as weak as people are saying.

AL Rank Run +/-
TOR: 1st
NYY: 3rd
TB: t-4th
BAL: 10th
BOS: 14th

Credit Reyes then. He correctly intuited that Gregerson would throw a slider outside the zone on the 0-2.  With Bautista not being held on (why?), there wasn't much chance that he would be thrown out on the back end.  Reyes does have a feel for the game, but sometimes he just blanks out (which can be frustrating to watch). 

No one wants to state the obvious so I will. This was a one run victory. These have been few and far between.

You do learn a few things as the games are played.  Chris Colabello cannot play left-field at all and is poor at first base, but can hit.  Unlike Valencia, I am comfortable with him facing a RHP in an important situation. Valencia isn't very good in left-field but serviceable enough that he could platoon with Carrera there and be useful.   When Travis returns and Goins fills the backup middle infield role, a bench facing a RHSP of Valencia, Colabello, Navarro and Goins will be just about perfect.  Carrera can shift over to centerfield if Pillar needs a day off.  Colabello can give Smoak or Encarnacion regular days off, and is the starting DH against a LHP. Valencia backs up Donaldson as well as platoon with Carrera.  It'd be nice if one was an emergency catcher because Navarro is a awfully good bat for a 2nd catcher.

With the Wednesday day game and Buehrle pitching on Tuesday night, I imagine that Navarro will get the start catching him.  Thursday is an off-day and the Jays face a LHSP today with Estrada on the mound.  The stars are aligning.

Valencia backs up Donaldson as well as platoon with Carrera.  It'd be nice if one was an emergency catcher because Navarro is a awfully good bat for a 2nd catcher

Let's try that again and hope that the caffeine has worked its magic. "Valencia backs up Donaldson as well as platooning with Carrera. It'd be nice if one was an emergency catcher because Navarro is an awfully good bat for a 2nd catcher".

Do we have a draft thread coming?

Here's a draft question that has nothing to do with the Blue Jays. Who do you think will have the better major league career- Danby Swanson or Alex Bregman?   My money's on Bregman (because of contact ability).

Ack, it's Dansby Swanson. 

Did you want that coffee a grande or venti Mike?

I had a second coffee, and it's evidently not working.  The "major communication problem" that shut down the subways for a time today have evidently had an impact on the synapses in my brain.  Paging Oliver Sacks.

I am now trying listening to Richard Thompson's new record in an effort to remedy the situation.  Sacks would approve, I think. 

It should be "Valencia backs up Donaldson as well as platoons with Carrera", or "Valencia backs up Donaldson while platooning with Carrera", really

Thanks, oceanbound. I am not sure that my corrected sentence falls short of the mark, but I am certainly not arguing grammar points today.

Does anyone else have thoughts about Swanson vs. Bregman?

Who do you think will have the better major league career- Danby Swanson or Alex Bregman?

No idea, but I think both will have a better major and minor league career than the Sale guy most of the board thought was a better choice in the 1st round in 2010.

I see Phil Bickford is tumbling down the mock draft boards. Has anyone heard whether he consented to being drafted by Toronto?

I take it you are referring to Josh Sale, rather than Chris Sale.  As I recall it, I was casting a vote for Zack Cox.  That hasn't turned out well either. 

I am not a big fan of taking pitchers in the first round, but the 2010 first round and supplemental (McGuire, Sanchez, Syndegaard, Wojciechowski) has to be scored, at this point, as a success. 

Oh yeah, Mike, it was Josh.

The board did like the Sanchez pick, good command being mentioned multiple times.

Noah was a "What are they thinking? Not even in BA's Top 200" pick.

Draft threads are fun reads many years later.

Based on the low picks & low drafting budget, AA has to have a new strategy for this draft. Maybe not new but multiple strategies.
Brady Aiken is ranked #24. Last year he turned down $5 mil. If he lasts until #20-30 them $ 5mil would wipe out many teams signing budget.
Texas has a pool of $9.1 mil followed by NYY at $7.9 mil. Those are the 5th & 6th highest pools.
The Jays are at $5.4 mil, with only 6 teams below them.

Aiken has good chance of being very good. If he is, then he makes your draft a success when evaluated in 3-6 years. If picked between 20-30 then many teams had a shot at him. If he does not turn out to be good then this is a wasted draft for the team that took him, based on how much of the signing pool he took.
A little more on Aiken... he did not go to UCLA, so as to be eligible for the 2015 draft. He also had TJ surgery in March 2015.
Sorry, I am not finished. So far I have been speculating since I have no inside info. Every team should know more than me, like what is his asking price? Therefore I conclude that the Jays will draft him in the 3rd round. That is a protected pick.

Just wondering, does this site need help with thread creation?

On the plus side, I have plenty of time on my hands due to a combination of being permanently unemployed and not dead yet.

On the negative side, I haven't checked my e-mail in a year and my computer skills have been described as Amish.

Am I correct in recalling that teams do not get a do-over the following year if they fail to sign their compensation round picks?

Beyonder, teams have to obtain a player's permission to be able to draft them in a future draft, once they've declined to sign. Beede gave the Jays permission last year, however I see that Aikens and Nix have not given that permission to the Astros.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2015/6/4/8730247/brady-aiken-and-jacob-nix-block-astros-from-redrafting-them

I think I found the answer to my own question. The team gets one do-over (i.e. if they fail to sign their selection this year, then next year they get a pick one slot earlier in the sandwich round -- but they don't get another do-over after that).

If that's correct, I think the best strategy for this draft is to select whichever player has slipped the most on account of high signing bonus expectations, offer that player the recommended slot amount (or less), and take your chances. Next years' draft is supposed to be much stronger than this one, and the team is highly likely to be in a position to draft a better player with an equivalent pick in the next draft.

Sorry CBDC. I should have been clearer about what I meant by "compensation pick". I was referring to the compensation pick a team gets (like the one we have this year) for losing a "qualified player" (i.e. Melky).

If I've read correctly, you get two chances to sign a player with those picks -- then they disappear.

Sorry, I misunderstood what you were asking.

Regardless, because of that misunderstanding a lot of us learned something, haha.

The old CBA had the do-over, which we used on Paxton/Syndergaard etc.

I thought the new CBA extended that for a second year, i.e. if we had failed to sign Pentacost last year (the previous years Bickford do-over), we still would have gotten the 12th pick this year.

That's right. But those compensation picks are awarded for failure to sign your own draft pick.

The compensation pick we have this year is for losing Melky to free agency. If we fail to sign the player we draft with the sandwich pick this year, then we get one more chance to use it next year -- then it's gone forever (again, if I've read correctly).

A good question is what do the Jays do if a big player drops due to contract demands?  Do you go whole hog and blow the budget and lose 2 first round picks in the future?  I'm thinking of the two guys the Astros failed to sign last year who said they are not willing to be drafted by the Astros again - Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix.  If you could get those two would you blow the budget and get them or just draft 'safe' guys and keep the 2 picks for next year.  How high a pick would you risk on them?  As an extra headache Aiken had Tommy John surgery.

I wouldn't say play it safe, but definitely don't go more than 5% over. You may be able to hardball the 1st 3 picks, because next years draft is stronger, though that be just at the top.

Aiken had an unusual UCL even prior to injury, so we as laymen can't possibly make any type of informed judgement.

Definitely wouldn't give up one future 1st, much less 2 (and the accompanying bonus pools) and I don't think any team will either.

John, I find it hard to believe that Aiken would fall to the 29 spot, although Jim Callis' tweet a while back that he would go higher than Hoffman because it's a weaker draft and he's better, may not be correct.

I like Beyonder's strategy of hitting high and if you miss, the pick's back next year. Though it'll be a dull outcome if they have to live with the small amount left over once their first pick money is gone.