OK, now I really want to see Colabello at 2B. Of course, I have a tendency to love the absurd.

When I looked at the Mariners lineup earlier on, I thought if I'm Estrada I walk Nelson  Cruz every time.

I guess the real Estrada didn't reach the same conclusion.

When I looked at the Mariners lineup earlier on, I thought if I'm Estrada I walk Nelson Cruz every time.

I say you have to give it up to Nelson Cruz, who is on his way to an absolutely Sammy Sosa-esque 68 home run season, all the while playing half his games in Safeco Park. in fact, Nelson has now hit 13 home runs in 20 games away from Safeco. If he played in the RC instead of Safeco, he could well hit 90-100 homeruns, dwarfing that minor historical figure, Babe Ruth.

While other PED cheats take the safe route, using PEDs in their free agent platform year, only to guard their money from suspension once they've struck pay dirt and flatline for their new teams, Nelly at least has the character to put his $ where his needle is and keep up the good work once he's in the cake. So here's to you Nelly! 68 homeruns playing in Seattle. Go for it!

Even with all the injuries, the Jays are +15 runs for the season, which is pretty good. Only seven teams in baseball have a better run differential. Unfortunately, they are 19-25, good for last place and 5.5 GB.

Still, it doesn't feel as if they've played well enough to be over .500, let alone a top-eight team in the majors.

Unfortunately, they are 19-25, good for last place and 5.5 GB.

To say they have not been efficient with their run scoring is, of course, plainly obvious. They have won by a margin of victory of 5+ runs 8 times and lost by such a margin just 4 times. They have won by a 7+ margin 5 times. They have scored a ton of ultimately meaningless runs against hapless mop-up men, causing Pythagoras to look at the them overly favourably.

and/or they've been unlucky in one-run games

On the topic of PEDs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/29510575

the upshot is their performance benefit may be present long after the athlete stop using. In Cruz's case his suspension may have been well worth it.

In last night's game, Smoak never made it to the plate. He would have, had Donaldson not made the final out. But was there not an argument to have been made for pinch-hitting Smoak for Pillar, to ensure an at-bat for him in the inning? Don't look now but Pillar has dropped below even Goins in the offensive ledger.

On this ridiculously outfielder-thin roster, Pillar has, by default, achieved the imprimatur of fulltime starter. And while he is on pace for a 3 WAR season, it's all glove and no bat. There's no reason he should be immune to being pinch-hit for and there's even an argument to bat him 9th.

To say they have not been efficient with their run scoring is, of course, plainly obvious.

You can't really chose to score more runs when you're trailing.  And there's never a reason to stop scoring when you're winning.

You might be able to use your best pitchers when the game is tight and your worst pitchers otherwise.

So, it has probably more to do with inefficient run prevention than with inefficient run scoring.

You can't really chose to score more runs when you're trailing. And there's never a reason to stop scoring when you're winning

I wasn't suggesting that they had any control over how their run scoring was distributed and I certainly wasn't arguing that they not pile on extra runs when they can. I was only pointing out that their many (ultimately) meaningless runs have caused their Pythagorean record to overstate their true ability.

Isn't every team's Pythagorean record partly a product of meaningless runs in lopsided games, since it reflects total scoring, rather than efficiently distributed runs?  In other words, the Pythagorean record of every team in MLB would always be heavily influenced by the surplus runs scored in lopsided victories or lopsided losses, and we shouldn't say that the Jays have a "better Pythagorean than they deserve."

If I'm understanding the metric properly.

If not, I'm sure someone will correct me.

"Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed" -- Wikipedia

Isn't every team's Pythagorean record partly a product of meaningless runs in lopsided game

Yes, I agree with this. But I think there is also the implicit assumption that over the duration of a long season, the meaningless runs, both for and against, more or less balance out. Or at least the effects of the relatively few lopsided games are muffled by a vast majority of games that are not.

I'm just arguing that in the Jays' season to date, the meaningless runs have not been balanced. There seems to me -- and I could well be proven wrong -- that the Jays have participated in an undue number of lopsided games in general, and a disproportionate share, in specific, in their favour. 12 of their 44 games have been decided by 5 or more runs, 8 in their favour.

The Jays are now 19-26. To win 90 games (giving them a reasonable chance at the playoffs), they need to go 71-46 (.609 winning percentage) the rest of the way. To win 95 games, they need to go 76-41 (.650 ball). The Jays are digging themselves into a bit of a hole here.

The injuries are killing the Jays. For example, if Bautista could throw, they could have had Bautista in RF and Colabello at DH (instead of vice versa) over the last couple of games. This could have made the difference between a win and a loss in each game. And that's just one of the lesser injuries currently afflicting the team.

I'm just now looking at my 1982 Bill James Abstract, the one where he introduces his Pythagorean model. In what is a reflection of the time, and a concept surely foreign to younger bauxites, he devotes a good deal of column space to arguing for the use of 2 as an exponent, rather than 1.83, opting for simplicity over accuracy. Such was life when a TI calculator was your tool and not a computer, and when number crunching was a labour intensive chore.

Jays care not for Pythagoras.

Legend has it that Pythagoras practised mesmerism. Sure goes a long way to explaining what we've been watching lately.

Here are the Jays' records under Gibbons, along with the Pythagorean record for the team in each of those years:

2004 67-94 (pythWL 71-90) Luck: -4
2005 80-82 (pythWL 88-74) Luck: -8
2006 87-75 (pythWL 86-76) Luck: 1
2007 83-79 (pythWL 87-75) Luck: -4
2008 86-76 (pythWL 93-69) Luck: -7

2013 74-88 (pythWL 77-85) Luck: -3
2014 83-79 (pythWL 85-77) Luck: -2
2015 19-25 (pythWL 23-21) Luck: -4*

* Excluding today's game

I'm not sure what the above stats add up to, but if they are at all meaningful, I doubt they work in Gibbons's favour. It's a pretty big sample size.

he devotes a good deal of column space to arguing for the use of 2 as an exponent, rather than 1.83

I wrote a few years ago about why I very much prefer using 2 in those projections myself. Evidently there's a theoretical justification for using 1.83, but "accuracy" isn't a concept that really applies to fantasy projections. Which is what a Pythagorean expectation really is, of course. I did discover that actually using using 1.83 produces a great many more weird results, which isn't what I think is wanted from this particular fantasy.

Forget the Greeks -- the Jays need to breathe through their third eye or something... anything.

Is Osuna of Mayan heritage?

Is Osuna of Mayan heritage?

He did start his North American career in 2012. Maybe we're all dead and living in an autistic boy's imagination.

if Bautista could throw, they could have had Bautista in RF and Colabello at DH (instead of vice versa) over the last couple of games. This could have made the difference between a win and a loss in each game.

Or maybe Bautista on the DL, Collabello at DH and any AAA outfielder in right field. That might have won those games too.

One of Gibbons' tendencies is to sometimes try to "lock down" a win with a 3-5 run lead in the 6th or 7th innings by using a better reliever than another manager might.   This could certainly contribute to more blowouts and (perhaps) fewer one-run wins in the long run.  This isn't a criticism necessarily, but rather a possible explanation for some of the disparity between his teams' records in blowouts and in one-run games separate and apart from luck. 

I'm not convinced that Pythagorean WL records are that meaningful, but I did notice that the Blue Jays have under-performed in each of Gibbons' three seasons back. I wonder how Gibbons' performance against the Pythagorean WL stacks up against other managers. How many other teams, for example, have in each of the last 3 years, under-performed the P WL, and by that amount? And using gf's numbers back to his last stint, how many have a similar record? If it's simply random outcome or 'luck',then luck should be evenly distributed.

Actually, I just had a quick look at the American League. On my quick review, no other team has under performed the P WL in each of 2013, 2014 and 2015. What's happening in Toronto seems to be unique.

The Jays OF this year was supposed to consist of Pillar/Saunders LF, Pompey CF, Bautista RF.

Now it's Valencia LF, Pillar (who is not hitting) CF, Colabello RF. Add in Goins and Tolleson/Kawasaki in the middle infield instead of Reyes and Travis, and that is some serious attrition.

So far Gibbons has managed 7 and a bit years.  Counting this year his team was in 5th at the end (if today was the end) 4 times.  3 times in 3rd and once in 2nd.  That isn't a good record by any stretch.  For comparison Cito Gaston from 1994 to his final year in 2010 was 5th twice, 4th 4 times, and 3rd once.  That was always with teams that were cutting payroll.  By 1995 the Jays were in payroll cutting mode and didn't jump again until after he was gone (in 2001/2).  2008 was the year JPR was shooting to win in and Gaston took over the payroll dropped $16 mil, then another $10 mil. 

I'd say by almost any measure that is publicly available one has to rank Gibbons poorly as a manager.  I hate to say it as he seems like a nice guy but you know what they say about nice guys.

The Jays have the 5th best run differential in the AL, and the 2nd worst record. They're 2-10 in one-run games. That, my friends, is bad luck. You could have the worst manager in MLB and he's not going to manage to a .166 record with any regularity in one-run games. Heck, we had what must have been pretty close to the worst manager in late and close situations in the days when our manager basically wouldn't pinch-hit, and even he did okay. That's how it goes sometimes.

It's not that Gibbons is perfect (and I've criticized him plenty) but I don't know how an intelligent fan can watch the games day in and day out and conclude that he's bad. Average, maybe, but then, an average manager should get average results, and when he doesn't, that's luck. Pure and simple. People are always trying to find explanations for whatever random events happen in the universe. That's how you get conspiracy theories and a whole bunch of other nuttiness. Buddy Holly shot the pilot, don't you know? Yeah, try not to be those people.

Don't really know how you can pin this on Gibbons. I think he's a "meh" at best manager but the reality is that the team has played as constructed - good offence against LH and mediocre RH And mediocre pitching. The team was constructed short of of one starter, one or two bullpen arms and a major left handed bat before the season started. Stroman's injury follewed by the injuries to Reyes and Saunders merely exacerbated roster construction problems. AA should go at the same time as Gibbons. The lineup is too RH at the end of the day.

"The lineup is too RH at the end of the day."

Um... you do know the Jays are leading the league in runs vs right-handed pitching, right?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/32

Um... you do know the Jays are leading the league in runs vs right-handed pitching, right?

A key contributor to that is the sheer volume of RHP they are seeing. The team's L/R splits are:
vs LHP (23% of PA): 310/364/494, 858 OPS
vs RHP (77% of PA): 239/313/404, 717 OPS

Now, the 717 OPS vs RHP is broken down as 620/756 for LHB/RHB, so the RHB are holding their own against RHP. It's not so much that the team is too right-handed -- though there is an argument for that since it means LHP are being chased away -- but that the LHB have not made any kind of contribution (though given the personnel, this is not surprising).

Incidentally, AL L/R splits are:
vs LHP (28% of PA): 257/327/409, 736 OPS
vs RHP (72% of PA): 248/312/394, 706 OPS

Based on slash lines alone, the team's offense vs RHP is pretty darn close to average. Not surprisingly, they are much better than average vs LHP.

With the caveat that PA totals vs LHP -- even for the regulars -- are quite low, so that an 0-for-4 or a 3-for-4 game could, by itself, dramatically swing the numbers, here are the L/R OPS splits for the RH batters.

Regulars:

Donaldson 1239/803
Martin 1053/833
Bautista 912/789
Travis 881/819
Encarnacion 798/791
Pillar 531/580

Part-timers:

Collabello 1266/934
Valencia 1000/719
Tolleson 935/566

For what it's worth, I still think this is a very good ballclub despite the results.  Maybe it's the halo effect from driving past Jarry Park a couple of days ago.

I thought before the season that the club had the best everyday lineup in baseball, and nothing I have seen changes that view.  They have had a whack of injuries and currently look so-so, but any team would.  The pitching has been the worst in the major leagues, and I really don't believe that they are that bad.  Mediocre would be great, and I think that they have it in them.  I honestly do not believe that Gibbons/Walker have gotten the best out of the pitchers; I know that others think that it is simply a matter of just plain suckage (or lack of talent if you prefer) but I don't buy it. 

As much as injuries (far above all else) have negatively affected the club so far this season, and as much as Gibby isn't to blame for the slow start, I do believe he's close to being thrown over the side. A sweep tomorrow might even do it, unfortunately. By the end of the homestand, they'll have played 50 games, which is nice round sample to evaluate.

As much as I hate doing this, it's probably time to start speculating who would get the job, in the event of a shakeup. The only member of the coaching staff with any managerial experience is DeMarlo Hale. He'd be an interesting choice, since he's been on a lot of teams radar for a number of years. But he's never managed full time in the big leagues, and I doubt a team in the Jays position would turn to someone inexperienced.

Totally speculating here, but a name that could make sense is Jim Tracy. He has experience, has managed in the postseason (which would sell nicely with ownership), and has an Expos connection with Anthopolous. Also, it would probably be easier to cut a veteran like Tracy loose at the end of the season if, presumably, a new president and G.M. wants to clean house.

I do not mind stating the obvious myself or if others do it.
So I think that by the AS break we have to be about 4 or 5 games over 500 to still be in contention for a playoff spot. So a hot streak is needed.

I am just going to wait and see what happens by then.

The record at that time will dictate what type of moves need to be made during the July 31 trading period. All the teams in the league will have an idea of what they want to do and are willing to do.

The good big teams at that time are always interesting to watch. If KC & Houston have good records at that time, IMO they should go for it with big moves. I also expect Oakland and SD to be interesting because their GMs are interesting to watch.

I go back and forth on this team. Despite the win-loss record, they have a solid +14 run differential. The 2-10 record in one run games has to be a lot of bad luck. It's hard to point to Gibby specifically as a reason for all this, and yet, in the 7+ seasons he's managed this club, they're a collective -30 or so in pythag.

The bad division is keeping them in this.

I think that the Jays have a potentially good ballclub if the team is mostly healthy. I do think that the team is a bit fragile, though. I think that there will be more injuries, probably significant ones, as the season goes on.

And as I've pointed out, the poor start is creating an uphill battle for the team. Even if they play at a 90-win pace from here on out, they'll finish with 84 wins - likely not good enough to make the playoffs. So they're going to have to be very good, not just good, for the rest of the season.

If it's simply random outcome or 'luck',then luck should be evenly distributed.

Most managers careers don't last long enough for that to happen, and I'm not sure that Gibbons' career has been long enough. But for a previous example, let's look at how Bobby Cox closed out his Atlanta years grappling with his teams expected W/L record:

2005: -1
2006: -6
2007: -4
2008: -7
2009: -5
2010: -2

Which followed a three year stretch when his Braves were collectively 11 games better...

I don't know how an intelligent fan can watch the games day in and day out and conclude that he's bad. Average, maybe, but then, an average manager should get average results, and when he doesn't, that's luck.

I think you're classifying managers in 3 groups. Those that have a negative impact on their team (good), those have a negative impact (bad) and those whose impact is negligible (average).

If you rank all the managers from best to worse, it's hard to put Gibby anywhere but  close to the end. How often do you watch a game and think Gybby just made a good move or that the other manager just made a bad one?

Bautista on the DL, Collabello at DH and any AAA outfielder in right field.

Bautista hasn't even heated up yet, but he's still had an OPS of .857 since having had to move to DH. I'm pretty sure the Jays don't have an outfielder in AAA who can come close to replacing that offense. I think we'd have heard about him.

Seeing the Forest through the trees. Injuries. The Bullpen. The Rotation. The Manager. Pythagoras. Guys who can hit but can't catch. Guys who can catch but can't hit. This is a last place team in a weak division. You can rationalize that any way you like.

Your Sunday morning sermon. Amen.

"They're 2-10 in one-run games. That, my friends, is bad luck."

It's not just bad luck. Five of the ten one-run losses were from blown saves. The Jays have 6 saves in 13 chances, for a 46% save percentage. That puts them 27th in the majors.

Incidentally, while the Jays are 6 for 13 in saves, Tampa is 19 for 21, the Yankees are 15 for 18 and even Baltimore is 12 for 15.

Short relief is costing the Jays a lot of games.

Bautista hasn't even heated up yet

Further to this, Bautista's OPS+ is not far off what it was during his two recent injury years (2012, 2013). Replicating his stellar 2014 seems out of the question, but he's contributing even at this current level of play. It's just inconvenient that he has to do so while DHing rather than playing the field.

How did Tampa get that killer pen?
Brad Boxberger: 13 saves 1.10 ERA part of a big trade with San Diego involving 4 other ex-Padres to get 2 guys.  At the time he was a 26 year old reliever wth just 42 ML games under his belt.
Kevin Jepsen: 1.86 ERA, but 11 BB in 19 1/3 IP - more lucky than good, Via trade form LAA for Matthew Joyce.  Not the type of trade I'd do as Tampa a reliever for an everyday player
Steve Geltz: 2.84 ERA 11.4 K/9 3.8 BB/9 - gained via LAA (again) for Dane De La Rosa a Live arm for live arm trade.  Looked bad for TB last year but great this year.
Brandon Gomes: 1.76 ERA 1.8 BB vs 8.5K -  1 of 4 guys to Tampa for Jason Bartlett. Disaster trade for SD.
Xavier Cedeno: 1.04 ERA 3.1  vs 9.3 -  purchased from the Dodgers.

Cedeno obviously was someone AA could've got.  The rest were minor parts of big trades it looks like outside of Jepsen.  Can't get mad at AA over this comparison as he grabs every warm body he can so Cedeno just slipped through or Tampa gave up more cash which is hard to believe.

Stroman and Travis are fast becoming two of my favourite Jays. Love their attitude and enthusiasm.

I see Stroman, Travis and Donaldson as our future leaders. Stroman for his positive attitude and never say die mentality; Travis for his charlie type hustle and grind; and Donaldson for his "I don't take sh** from anybody and I'll tell you about it."

He's not pitched much this year, but Jake McGee, who will serve as Tampa's primary lefty and possibly share closing duties with Boxberger was drafted and developed by Tampa. Interestingly, Tampa has just called up Preston Guilmet, who they acquired off waivers from the Jays earlier this spring.

With the Joyce-Jepsen trade Tampa seemed to identify Joyce as surplus with the acquisition of Souza, given that they also had Kiermaier, Jennings, Guyer and DeJesus. Whether they deliberately targeted a reliever from the beginning or found that a reliever was their maximum return for a platoon outfielder, it seems as if they then went after Jepsen as someone they felt could be a useful contributor to the bullpen.

While Navarro had a role as an occasional DH/Martin's backup, you could contrast that with AA's approach to Navarro, when Martin arguably made Navarro somewhat surplus to requirements.

Joyce isn't really an everyday player. He's an Adam Lind-ish outfielder. Use him vs righties, sit him vs lefties and put up with his subpar defence.

I'm not down on Gibby as far as being a strategist. lineup-setter or bullpen manager - there are many worse.

I think (with no rational reason to do so other than results) his problem is that he's the anti-Madden. Madden seems to get his players to believe in themselves and believe they can win any and every ball game. Gibby's teams seem to constantly give up that crucial run in close games when ahead, or not get that clutch hit when behind.

Kevin Cash does many things that I really like.  I watched the last few innings of this game. Erasmo Ramirez started and was very good, but he's Erasmo Ramirez and so Cash pulled him after 5 innings.  He then let Matt Andriese, who was tiring but who has been a starter, finish the game.  You can call it a tandem start if you like... but it does save your pen.

Off topic and late but supposedly Henderson Alvarez has been pitching through a 90% torn UCL for years. That's pretty nuts.

How did the Yankees get that killer pen?

They just sign the most expensive free agent reliever on the market.

You're short changing the development of this fella

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/betande01.shtml

They just sign the most expensive free agent reliever on the market.

Actually, the most expense free agent reliever on the market was a guy the Yankees had developed and who elected to sign elsewhere.

Off topic but Kyle Drabek looks like he might be turning his career around. In AAA Charlotte, he has 6 GS with an ERA of 2.32. A H9 of 5.5 to go along with 2.9 BB9, .935 WHIP and 6.9 SO9.

With the Jays starting pitching woes, he could have given the club another option.

Off topic but Kyle Drabek looks like he might be turning his career around.

His peripherals (BB/9, K/9, HR/9) in AAA this year are almost identical to what they were in AAA last year. He has been hit lucky this year with a FIP of 4.47, double his ERA of 2.32.

Lucky or improved "stuff?" Or a tweak in mechanics?

Could today be the start of a one game winning streak?

Really seeing some bad outfield play from both teams this weekend. Ackley looks worse in centre than Colabello in right.

Another nice start by Sanchez, giving the Jays a much-needed boost.

With Sunday's win, Toronto has been outscored once in the past seven series. Going back to April 30 vs Cleveland, Toronto has outscored its opponents by 21 runs, and gone 10-14 in the process. Houston outscored them by 5 runs in their 4-0 sweep.

I don't think I've seen a Jays team more unlucky/inefficient at runs scored/allowed.

Right now, only KC and Houston have a better run differential than the Jays in the AL.

Sanchez is really beginning to show that he has a chance to be a valuable starter for the Jays for years to come.  Since the beginning of May, he's been clearly the best starter on the team. And he's getting a grip on his command problems: only 5 walks in the past 14 innings. (Still too many, but a sharp reduction.)  Still too early to be confident of anything, but I'm glad the Jays have given him a chance. 

It looks like the Jays made the right choice in keeping Sanchez up and sending Norris down.

And I'll just steal this nice statistic that someone just tweeted:  The last seven Jays starters (not including the Redmond start) have given up 24 ER over 52 innings (4.15 ERA) averaging over 7 innings per start.

If the starting pitching is finally beginning to round into decent form, and you combine it with one of the best-hitting lineups in the majors, the Jays still have a chance to put something together this season.  Especially since they're only 4.5 games out of first place, despite all the bad luck and injuries.

Reyes is back tomorrow, to give a further boost.  Bautista's cortisone shot could maybe get him back into the OF soon, which would allow the Jays to get Smoak into the lineup, or at least put Colabello into a more natural position at 1B or DH.  There are possible future reinforcements in Norris, Pompey and Castro at some point this season. Doubront and Wolf are also interesting possibilities in Buffalo.  Lots of room for optimism -- if you squint just right....

Every so often I check in on Gose, as I found the Travis-Gose trade intriguing for both clubs. Over his last four games, Gose is 8/16 with three doubles, one walk and one strikeout. He's now hitting 336/374/481 in 131 AB. I know his BABIP is inflated, but he has been surprisingly good this year. Like another tools prospect in Sanchez, Gose seems to be finding his comfort zone this year. A good reminder not to bet exclusively on prospects with safer minor-league stats but lesser tools.

For a little entertainment, google Carter Capps and check out his pitching motion. Just in case you thought you've seen everything.

I know his BABIP is inflated, but he has been surprisingly good this year.

Just a little bit inflated at .466.  His career BABIP is .354.  Let's imagine that he had improved quite a bit and posted a BABIP of .375.  What would his slash line look like?  To do that, he has to be docked 8 hits and let's say that they are all singles.  His slash line would be a very Gosian line of .268/.304/.409. 

Gose is a decent enough ballplayer, but evidence of his improvement is pretty spare.  What is unfortunate is that the club didn't give Pompey more of a chance. 

a 2-10 record in 1 run games is something else.

its definitely unlucky, but its still a very real hole to dig out of. jays gonna need some luck to balance out, and quick.

I agree with ogator..."we have guys that can hit but not catch and guys that can catch but not hit".
Colabello looks to me like a guy who can hit. He did miss on 2 catches in the 1st 2 games against Seattle. Maybe his fielding is not good enough, in the outfield anyway.
He has played in every game since coming up May 5th.

He looks good to me so far for ABs at DH. I am hoping that Bautista & EE have similar results this year as in previous years and that Colabello is the real deal.

Years ago in the 80s we had F McGriff & C Fielder on the team. They both had long and very good careers. Fielder was not given a good enough opportunity by the Jays and then allowed to leave. I think he went to Japan. To this day I believe the Jays made a mistake by allowing Fielder to leave. They could have shared 1B & DH.

"I honestly do not believe that Gibbons/Walker have gotten the best out of the pitchers; I know that others think that it is simply a matter of just plain suckage (or lack of talent if you prefer) but I don't buy it."

Just so we're clear, Mike - has Gibbons gotten the best out of the hitters, or is the #1 offence in MLB just a function of the talent on hand?

Gibbons had another EXCELLENT weekend managing. On Friday he got 7 solid innings out of Estrada and made the right bullpen moves. On Saturday he left Buehrle in to deal with his own mess in the 7th down 1 run, and even let him come back out for the 8th to see if he could get one more inning. He used Osuna & Cecil judiciously to keep it a one run game, but alas the Jays bats did not awaken. On Sunday he was able to win the game while keeping his injured superstar out of the game for a much needed day of rest. He did a great job of shepherding Sanchez into the 7th inning, and gave Osuna/Loup/Hendriks the work they needed to finish the game. I may have liked to see some Copeland late Sunday, but it's nice having a very fresh arm ready to go as needed; I hope he's thrown a couple of 60-75 pitch bullpen sessions since his May 14th start. There was also the Russell Martin at bat in the Saturday game where Twitterland wanted to see a bunt, but that would have obviously been a terrible move down 1 in the 7th when your lineup has 5-6 AAAA hitters in it.

Pillar has been an offensive disaster thus far, 56 wRC+, but thanks to his defence has actually been above replacement level,+0.2 WAR per FG, +1.0 WAR per Bbref.

Melky with the White Sox has actually managed to be a worse hitter than Pillar thus far, 54 wRC+, and sits at -0.5 WAR per FG, -0.2 per Bbref.

Goins is now up to 76 wRC+, tied with Robinson Cano and ahead of Troy Tulowitzki.

It seems strange to be saying that Osuna needed the work, given that he only pitched 23 innings in 2014 and leads the Jays in relief appearances and relief innings in 2015, having already thrown 22.2 innings in 22 appearances.

What's the old adage, you are never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you are never as bad as you feel when you lose?

Unless one believes the pitching performance is indicative of the true talent level of the ball club there is tremendous room for positive regression. The rotation is showing signs of stabilizing its performance and the bullpen still has a chance to become a strength with Cecil, Osuna, and Hendricks a potential power anchor. I do not believe this will be balanced out by negative regression from the offense, which despite leading MLB in runs has dealt with injury and/or under-whelming performances from its projected starting LF, CF, RF, 1B/DH, 2B, and SS. Chris Colabello looks like the only unsustainable surprise performance to date.

The Jays have dug a hole but have yet to experience any sustained good luck so I am less inclined to worry about what their winning percentage must be ROS just yet. Put another way, the Jays longest winning streak is 3 games. The Phillies, potentially the worst team in MLB and authors of three, 5+ game losing streaks already have a 6 game winning streak to their credit. Get back to me in mid-July.

"....Goins is now up to 76 wRC+, tied with Robinson Cano and ahead of Troy Tulowitzki...."

This is the kind of fascinating tidbit that keeps me coming back again and again to this site.

Note also that Cano and Tulowitzki are earning a combined $44-million this season.

Unless one believes the pitching performance is indicative of the true talent level of the ball club there is tremendous room for positive regression. The rotation is showing signs of stabilizing its performance and the bullpen still has a chance to become a strength with Cecil, Osuna, and Hendricks a potential power anchor. I do not believe this will be balanced out by negative regression from the offense,

I agree with all that. 

In reply to 92-93, I believe that the offence has achieved at about the level one ought to have expected.  The established veterans (Martin, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Bautista, Reyes) have as a group performed at about what one would expect as a group.  The young players  (Pillar, Pompey, Travis) have also performed about how I anticipated at the start of the year (Travis better, Pompey and Pillar worse, but I am pretty sure that it would even out some over a full season). If you want to give Gibbons credit for playing Colabello with his offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses, you could but I consider it a temporary issue and not one of any great significance either way.

As for the weekend games, I'm not really excited about going through Osuna, Loup and Hendriks in a 8-2 game.  If Hendriks needed the work (and that is a reasonable view) he is perfectly capable of going 2.1 innings.  Gibbons doesn't trust Hendriks evidently and so doesn't want to use him unless the club is ahead by plenty or down a run (at least).  The result is not, in my view, good for the bullpen as a whole in the long run.  An incidental effect of this type of bullpen usage is that it can lead to an increased number of blowout wins and of  one-run losses.

Mike, I've quibbled with many of your comments over the years, but I must concede that you were very correct in your off-season touting of Travis and Hendriks.  Most of us weren't counting on them as significant contributors in 2015.  You thought they could be, and you were right.   Since I often challenge you when I think you're wrong, I must in fairness give you props when you're right!

Of the team's 20 wins, 9 have been by 5+ runs and 4 more have been by 4 runs. That's 13 out of 20 wins where a traditional save has not been in the cards (never mind the 3-inning variety). Not surprisingly, the team only has 6 saves. There just ain't much to save (at least according to Holtzman's definition).

This, I think, has messed up the normal rhythm of bullpen usage (A-team in games they are winning, B-team in games they are losing). Whatever Gibbons has in mind as his 7-8-9 version of KC's HDH, we'd never know since Toronto doesn't play conventional games. So you get key guys needing work since they get to sit out in blow outs (both for and against). Cecil is barely on pace for 50 innings.

Mike, Osuna wasn't used in an 8-2 ballgame. He came in with the score 4-2, a man on and 2 out. I don't understand how Gibby could have foreseen the offence would tack on 4 more runs.

Osuna and Sanchez are turning out to be one of the few bright spots this year.

I still believe in Norris and Hutchinson.

Next year, Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna will be great to build around. I am very hyped about Hoffman too. I like the future of our pitching staff.

Unfortunately, the hitting is getting older. :)

The performance I have been most fascinated with belongs to one Russell Martin. He is basically duplicating his career year of the previous season but in a different manner. He has traded walks and strikeouts for more power, leaving him with an almost identical wRC+ as 2014. It will be interesting to watch his approach evolve - even thus far he seems to have adapted his 2015 approach, moving from patience bordering on the extreme to a much more aggressive approach early in the count. Combined with his usual stellar defense he has been one of the best players in MLB to start the season.

Mike, Osuna wasn't used in an 8-2 ballgame. He came in with the score 4-2, a man on and 2 out. I don't understand how Gibby could have foreseen the offence would tack on 4 more runs.

I know.  Gibbons didn't need to bring in Osuna in a 4-2 game in the 7th with two outs and a man on, but that wasn't my beef particularly.  It was the use of two other relievers (who ought to have higher leverage roles) in an 8-2 game late. I do find it very cautious to bring in Osuna in that situation- it's not ultra-high leverage, Osuna had pitched the day before, Hendriks needed the work and was capable of finishing the game. Gibbons' way does increase the chance of winning that game, but probably diminishes the bullpen in the long run.

He had Osuna throwing to start the seventh inning with the score 4-1 and Sanchez on <90 pitches. (Sanchez, with the bullpen going right in front of him, promptly gave up a leadoff single...) And then he had Osuna crank it up when the first batter reached. He then brought Osuna in with one runner on and two out to face Taylor, the #9 hitter, who was 2/2 against Sanchez. The plan was clearly to use Osuna for 1.x innings on 0 days' rest with three lefties due up in the eighth - and Loup didn't even start warming until after the lead had expanded to 6-2, in case you were wondering where he stood in the circle of trust.

On a different note, all of this is a pretty good argument for using your best reliever as a traditional closer during the regular season, especially if you plan on making the playoffs.

Osuna was brought in correctly, why wait around for a higher leverage situation? These have been the situations the Jays have coughed up leads.

Loup should not have a higher leverage role, he's had command problems and has been pretty ineffective as his almost 6 ERA at the time will attest.

Don't disagree about Hendricks, but he hadn't pitched in 4 days - can't argue with giving him an inning.

I don't agree about Loup.  You've got a left-handed closer and two right-handed pitchers who could handle the high leverage work.  Loup ought to be the left-handed specialist, and shouldn't be the choice with a 6 run lead. 

At this point, the club is -5 vs. Pythagoras with a 2-10 record in one run games.  If you asked me to give their numbers at the end of the year, it would be -6 vs. Pythagoras and a 10 more losses than wins in one-run games.  The approach hasn't worked over a long period and I don't think that it is entirely bad luck. 

"How did the Yankees get that killer pen?

They just sign the most expensive free agent reliever on the market. "


Bullpens

NYY: 25.6k%, 10.2bb%, .255babip, .197avg, 1.15whip, 9.2hr/fb%, 72.0lob%, 3.23era, 3.51fip, 3.66xfip, 3.30siera
TOR: 24.6k%, 8.8bb%, .270babip, .220avg, 1.18whip, 12.9hr/fb%, 73.7lob%, 3.68era, 4.00fip, 3.71xfip, 3.24siera

The tying run at the plate in the 7th is the perfect time for Roberto Osuna to be used, and many managers prefer not to have the relievers they trust sit for too long, so with Hendriks and Loup not having pitched the 3 days before and a generally well-rested bullpen it's acceptable to use them no matter the score.

According to Tango's tables, top 7, two out, runner on first, up 2, is 1.2 leverage. I don't know how Brad Miller and Seth Smith being on deck plays into that.