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It seems a lot of us are thinking the same thing right about now...



...but lets consider this with rational reason. Or at least with reasonable ration. I for one, am not of the opinion that John Gibbons is a terrible big league manager (although I was much more convinced of that before this season began). He appears to have his strengths and weaknesses, like most skippers who occupy the end of a bench. In the right situation with just enough good breaks, any modestly intelligent baseball fellow can manage a team to a championship. This is why men like Bob Brenly, John Farrell and Ozzie Guillen have as many World Series rings as Bobby Cox and Whitey Herzog. Again, I don't think John Gibbons is a terrible manager. The question for me is: whether the situation is getting away from his control, uh, again. Lets take a quick look at some of the stuff we, as observers, can actually see.

Bullpen Management

Gibbons was brought back for 2013 with his ability to run a bullpen as a major selling point. And that is certainly true of his first tour, as his teams managed to get workable innings year after year out of such castoffs like Scott Schoeneweis, Scott Downs, Brian Wolfe, Jeremy Accardo, Brian Tallet, Vinnie Chulk and his current pitching coach, Pete Walker. Initially that seemed to be the case again in 2013, with guys like Delabar, Cecil, McGowan, Juan Perez (ouch) and Neil Wagner (ouch again) all emerging as useful relief pieces under Gibbons' watch. 2014 was really the first full season Gibbons has managed where the bullpen has not been a strength of his ballclub (you could argue 2006, since everybody not named B.J. Ryan was pretty mediocre at best). Perhaps as a result of that, often times this season it has felt as though the skipper's touch with his relief core has seemed slightly off (to be as wishy-washy in that sentence as possible). There seem to be guys he trusts no matter what (Loup), guys who don't really seem to have a specific role (Osuna, Delabar) and guys who he doesn't trust to start an inning in a close game in the eighth, but who he'll bring in with the bases loaded, nobody out and a one run game in the sixth, a.k.a a near impossible situation (Hendriks, Francis, Albers briefly). You can blame the GM for not providing the personnel (and rightfully so), but I don't think it's crazy to say this is a manager who has made it work with less. So far, that's a point against Gibby.

The Team Playing Hard

Look, it's the middle of May. If the team had already given up hustling at this point, there would be much bigger problems than the manager. Even the Brewers are still playing hard, and why wouldn't they? There are over a hundred games left in the season. At this point in the season, I don't think you can judge a skipper one way or the other in this regard (unless it's extreme one way or the other). The only reason you don't see every Blue Jay chugging it down the line is either because they're injured (which is half the team) or because their name is Edwin Encarnacion or Justin Smoak and doing that on a ground ball to shortstop just means you're ten feet closer to first base before you're officially out. This isn't a point for or against Gibbons.

Lineups

This has confused me a little bit, to be honest. Just a few small things. First of all, Kevin Pillar should never, ever, bat fifth in a big league lineup. I'd rather see him bat leadoff than hit there. I like Pillar a lot, but his bat has some weaknesses. I mean, the dude is slugging .342 right now. That's awful close to Kawasaki level, and who in their right mind would put Kawasaki in the top five of their... ah nevermind. Gibbons also seems strangely tentative to use pinch hitters this year, even though the options on the bench have been mostly fruitful this season. For one thing, I'm not exactly sure Gibbons is aware Justin Smoak is actually a switch hitter (Smoak has only 3 ABs batting RH all year, he's 2-3). Danny Valencia, who was pretty much born to make lefty pitchers curse the day they were born, has only six pinch hit at-bats all season (he's 0-6). Meanwhile he seems perfectly content to allow Ryan Goins, Josh Thole or Ezquiel Carrera to face tough pitchers (often left-handed) late in ballgames. To which I say, um... why? Having the best defense out there on the field isn't quite as useful when at the moment you're losing the game. Seeing if Danny Valencia can play shortstop in an emergency is a better (and obviously much more hilarious) problem than constantly squandering opportunities to score late in ballgames. By the way, I like Valencia's chances of playing a somewhat passable shortstop (two minor league innings there!) over Goins' chances of suddenly figuring out left-handed pitching.

Conclusion

It's not the mayor's fault that the stadium collapsed!

GIBBONS: IF YOU WERE RUNNING A BASEBALL TEAM, HE'D VOTE FOR YOU

Things are being overblown quite a bit. The record isn't as bad as some make it seem (though it sure looked better on Thursday), and all this talk of apathy towards the team is frankly rather annoying. This is baseball. It is inherently a game of failure. And it's freaking May! If this bad baseball nonsense continues into July then yeah, I'll be right with you, or alone in the corner hoping the Reds can steal a wildcard spot. Lets slow down, take this thing one game at a time and maybe stop trying to drill the big picture into the wall for just a moment. It's frustrating (oh goodness yes) but I'm saving my best, sharpest pitchfork for when it's truly time for that sort of thing.

As for Gibbons, well... I feel like managers are like umpires a lot of the time. When they're doing a good job, you hardly notice them. We've been noticing Gibby a lot lately.

The Gibbons Question | 9 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
eudaimon - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#300881) #
Good post. I too think this is overblown, considering it's only mid-May and we've been dealing with a lot of injuries (and some good old fashioned suckitude). I guess around 20+ years without a playoff appearance will do that to people. Still, I make a point to avoid the Baux when times are tough - the comments get angsty or just plain depressing and that's no fun at all.

I think we're doing well considering. I have optimism that the team will do well through the summer if they can stay reasonably healthy. The pitching definitely needs to get better, but I'm confident Dickey will end up with an ERA of ~4 and that Hutchison will do the same. Buerhle's already looking "normal" again. Sanchez and Estrada are both question marks, but both show some potential of success (and Norris can replace whoever faceplants). Stroman's injury was really devastating for the team, but they still have a chance to get to the playoffs.

I think Gibbons has done a good job of managing, but that some of his decisions haven't really worked out very well (even when he had the right idea). He seems mildly shell-shocked at the moment. Can't blame him - early on not even Cecil could get outs (he's settled down recently) and that can get to your head. The bullpen might actually be decent if the pitchers can get going. Cecil's been good, Loup has been good (outside of a few disaster outings, and he has good peripherals), Osuna looks pretty good, Delabar might be back, and Hendricks is showing that he might be a much better reliever than a starter. Tepera has also looked good early on.

He's used platoons fairly well I'd say. Valencia is sort of like the new Reed Johnson (a throwback to the good old Catalonotto/Johnson platoon days), and he has done a good job limiting his ABs versus righties. The team's versatility though is very limited because of Bautista's injury. It's a good thing Adam Lind isn't around to clog up 1B / DH more than it already is, despite his success this year.

Anyways, like Eephus said I'll be more concerned about this if it extends past mid-late July.

Thomas - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#300883) #
I don't disagree with substantial portions of what you wrote, although I'd have harsher word for his bullpen management, both in terms of how he warms up pitchers and who he puts into the games, over the past couple of seasons and some of his pinch-hitting choices (or lack therefore). Gibbons clearly isn't a disaster as a manager. He also, in my view, clearly isn't an elite manager who is going to gain your teams a couple of wins at the margins. I say that with knowledge of his on-field performance only, so there is a clubhouse dimension that it's nearly impossible for us to evaluate.

If the Jays are going to make the playoffs this season, it is unlikely to be by a comfortable margin, particularly given how the first seven weeks of the season have gone. The injuries and some of the poor performances are clearly on the players, but the team is in a situation where these marginal wins may be very important in a tight AL East race.

I wasn't a fan of rehiring Gibbons and I've seen very little during his second tenure to suggest that Gibbons' managerial performance will give the team any competitive advantage over managers like Girardi, Showalter and Cash.

At this point, even if Gibbons is a "good enough" manager, I don't want to settle for that. I'd rather hire an unknown quantity in terms of managerial experience, such as a Sandy Alomar Jr. or Lovello or someone similar, with the hope that he is the next Maddon (or Maddon-lite), and accept the risk it's a disastrous hire, rather than settle for a known mediocre quantity.
ogator - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#300884) #
I see very little reason for optimism regarding this team. The starting rotation has been terrible and I don't know where one would see hope that this poor performance has been an anomaly. The bullpen can be seen as weak or weak average but there is nothing to make one think that the bullpen is one of the better ones.
If Reyes comes back his offense is probably offset by his defense. If Bautista gets healthy, that gives more at bats to Smoak--I'm not sure why that would be a cause for hope.
But while I don't much like Gibbons as a manager, I don't think any of the above is his fault. The Jays gambled that they had a window for success so they traded prospects for major league pitching and high salaried, declining talent players. It would seem that that experiment failed. They didn't realistically have that window and those decisions were not made by Gibbons.
Let them play for three weeks and then it is time to identify which players can bring back a valuable return. It is hard to believe that Reyes or Buerhle or Dickey will fetch much. Bautista or Encarnacion might but it is hard to look into the farm system and see viable replacements.
Things are never as bad as they look when things are going poorly and never as good as they seem when things are going well but the pitching, both starters and bullpen, may be too much to overcome.
The most hopeful thing is that the division does not seem to have a powerhouse team. Five games back is not too many in May. How many of those five games are tied to Gibbons? I don't think very many.
jerjapan - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#300885) #
I dunno Ogator, I see plenty of reason for optimism, despite our dismal results thus far.  Reyes is clearly an upgrade over Goins, although I wish Gibby would be a bit more proactive with Goins as a defensive replacement.  Saunders will eventually help, as may Navarro at DH or off the bench.  The Jays have very little invested in Smoak and could drop him for Collabello if he doesn't get it going with the bat.  EE and Jose will improve, and only Martin strikes me as a candidate for regression on offense out of the key hitters. And  I like the thought of a Pillar / Carrera or Pillar / Pompey platoon in CF. 

The pen is sorting itself out and there are some interesting options in AA and AAA for those last few roles - although hopefully Delabar can get those walks under control. 

Buehrle should continue Buerhlin' (my fave stoetenism), Dickey should be at least average assuming he hasn't lost the knuckler somehow (I really don't understand that pitch).  and many had Hutch as a stealth breakout candidate this year - he will improve.  Norris has looked good in AAA and should be back soon, and some combination of Wolf / Doubront / Santana could be an average 5th guy if needed. 

I do agree with you that things aren't as bad as they look right now though!

uglyone - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#300888) #
No team can win with starting pitching this bad. We have had the worst starting pitching in baseball, by a hilariously large margin.

mike in boston - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#300898) #
Good post. The biggest knock against Gibbons is that no one else in MLB would give him a job after he left the Jays. He has done nothing to prove that knock wrong in his return to the Jays, but has not embarrassed himself either. There's just not enough major league every day talent on this roster.
cybercavalier - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#300901) #
There's just not enough major league every day talent on this roster.

BBRef: 2015 minor league batting leaders board
BBRef: 2015 minor league pitching leaders board

Interesting names: Shaun Marcum, Eric Thames, Justin Germano (?)


BlueJayWay - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#300909) #
There's just not enough major league every day talent on this roster.

That's kind of a strange thing to say with that descriptor 'every day'. If you're referring to the position players, you do realize this team leads MLB in runs?
cybercavalier - Monday, May 18 2015 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#300910) #
Seeing if Danny Valencia can play shortstop in an emergency is a better (and obviously much more hilarious) problem than constantly squandering opportunities to score late in ballgames. By the way, I like Valencia's chances of playing a somewhat passable shortstop (two minor league innings there!) over Goins' chances of suddenly figuring out left-handed pitching.

I just wanna say something about the lineup.

Promotion: Chris Dickerson, Aaron Sanchez
Demotion:  Justin Smoak, Scott Copeland

My changes to today's lineup:

3B Donaldson
DH Bautista
1B EE
---- RF Carrera
C Martin
LF-1B Colabello
----- 1B Thole
SS Valencia
----- SS Goins
CF Pillar
RF-LF Dickerson
2B Tolleson
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