Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Yankees at Blue Jays

The New York Yankees come to Toronto for a big three game series. It is early in the season but this week is setting up as a pivotal week for the Jays. Along with the Yankees, the Red Sox come to town this week and these six games could say a lot about this team. A 4-2 week, or better, will steady the ship. A 2-4 week, or worse, will raise the angst level to extra high.

The Yankees swept the Red Sox and are 8-2 over their last ten games. They now are 4.5 games ahead of the Jays, and since Tanaka has gone down injured they have been playing very well. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are both hitting well over .300 and making trouble for opponents from the top of the order. The Yankees have scored 124 runs, twenty less than the Blue Jays. With only 93 runs allowed the New Yorkers lead the AL East in run prevention. The starting pitching has been good but the bullpen has been excellent, particularly Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, both with their zero ERA's.

What do the Jays have to counter with? The offense is fine, leading the major leagues in run scoring. Some hitters are hot, some are cold, but that happens over the course of a season. The starting pitching has been terrible. Over the next six games RA Dickey gets two starts and Mark Buehrle one. Can the veterans get back on track? The recovery of the starting pitching starts with them. Drew Hutchison seems to be in a mental funk, he might need two or three starts in AAA just to fix himself with no pressure. Who knows what Marco Estrada will do.

I said at the top that a 4-2 week will steady the ship and stop the lemmings jumping off the cliff (mixed metaphors are free today only!). The offense can get us there. For the starting pitching to support the offense we need three struggling starters to fix themselves and Estrada to arrive with a bang. It's odd that suddenly Aaron Sanchez is our best starter.

So with all the comings and goings who is left in the bullpen? Brett Cecil is your closer. Roberto Usna is trusted by Gibbons. Aaron Loup and Liam Hendricks are almost trusted by Gibby, but maybe not 100%. Jeff Francis and Chad Jenkins are your long men. Steve Delabar is here on a trial, he needs to hit the ground running or else he will be back in Buffalo. If the starters go five innings, can the Jays win with Jenkins, Delabar and Francis?

Here are some other things to watch this series:

How will the Yankees pitch to Devon Travis? I always find the Yankees advanced scouting to be the best in the leagues. If Travis has a weakness the Yankees will try and go there.

What will Estrada do as a starter against the experienced New York line-up?

Buehrle famously never throws between starts. How does he fix himself if he keeps that habit?

Can the Jays win this series with Dickey, Estrada and Buehrle starting?

Even though the Jays are just two games over .500 it does not feel like that. It feels like the season hangs by a thread. It doesn't really but a bad week could lead to changes in the dugout, whether that be Gibbons or Walker.

Your matchups:

Chase Whitley vs. RA Dickey

Michael Pineda vs. Marco Estrada

CC Sabbathia vs. Mark Buehrle

Are you confident?

Posted by Gerry on Monday, May 04 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT.

Yankees at Blue Jays - May 4-6 | 156 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

jerjapan - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#300361) #

Interesting point about the Yanks advance scouts Gerry, I have to confess I've never given the topic much thought. Who else do you feel is strong in this regard? How do we rate? Any teams that are particularly poor at advance scouting?

Mike Green - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#300363) #

I don't know that I would say Hendriks is almost trusted by Gibbons. He's had 9 outings. In four of the outings, he came on with a lead of 5 runs or more. In one outing the team was down 7. In another, the club was down 3 in the 8th inning. He's had 3 outings of some significance on April 14, 18 and 28.

Gibbons may have more trust in him now that Castro is gone and Jenkins is here to provide the long right-handed relief.

Gerry - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#300364) #

I can't say that I have seen advanced scouting play a part with other teams. It just seems that some Blue Jay hitter will struggle this series and it will be because the Yankees are pitching him differently and he can't adjust quickly.

It could be a bias of mine, or the commentators. As much as we talk about the Yankees big piles of cash, I find their scouting and back office work to be very effective. The Yankees have picked up a lot of players over the years who seem to be finished and they revive their careers there. That could be the power of the uniform but I think scouting plays a role too.

Mike Green - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#300365) #

CC Sabbathia

What is the name of the underground band fronted by John Fogerty and Ozzy Osbourne?

uglyone - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#300366) #

heh.

uglyone - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#300368) #

relatively huge outing for Dickey tonight imo. Pitching well tonight of course is important in itself for the win, but the potential added benefits of messing up the timing of he yanks' hot bats for the rest of the series as well as saving the pen, are pretty big too.

as is the added benefit of saving the sanity of the hitters, the FO, and the fans with the knowledge that all their SP won't throw AAA quality every outing.

Gerry - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#300369) #

Baseball jeopardy:

This is the definition of a long tail in your line-up?

What is Josh Thole batting sixth, Alex?

uglyone - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#300371) #

oh come on. seriously?

dammit.

Gibbons clearly wants to win this Thole fight with AA, and i'm pretty sure its gonna backfire.

Mike Green - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#300372) #

Saunders is out of the lineup against a RHP with Valencia in left (which partly explains Thole batting sixth). I hope Saunders' knee is OK. If he is healthy, he certainly doesn't need the rest.

Chuck - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#300373) #

CC Sabbathia... What is the name of the underground band fronted by John Fogerty and Ozzy Osbourne?

There was a time when an ideal staff would consists of 10 CC Sabbathias, back when he was Iron Man.

Gerry - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#300374) #

Saunders was hobbling some over the weekend. He might just need to rest his knee.

Mike Green - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#300375) #

The club had four outfielders for the major league roster when spring training began- Bautista, Pillar, Pompey and Saunders. With Pompey in Buffalo, and Bautista and Saunders hurting, the club ends up with Valencia in left-field against a RHP and Smoak out of the lineup. It's unfortunate.

92-93 - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#300376) #

It was really painful watching Saunders play this weekend. He belongs on the DL, and shouldn't be brought back until he demonstrates the ability to get through a game looking fine. It astounds me (though it probably shouldn't) that the Jays training staff looks at Saunders and approves him being rolled out there on a daily basis.

robertdudek - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#300377) #

For those who think the Jays bullpen "hasn't been that bad", according to fangraphs numbers, the Jays ranks 28th of 30 in xFIP in high leverage situations (4.94). The Cubs (4.95) and the Indians (5.09) are 29th and 30th.

The tops 5 in baseball are: Yankees 2.46 Arizona 3.16, KC 3.25, Pirates 3.48, Washington 3.52

Last season the Jays ranked 28th of 30 as well.

adrianveidt - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#300378) #

robertdudek, but are the starters any better? The whole staff has been cover-your-eyes awful.

uglyone - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#300379) #

robert, that's because the manager decided to make a 20yr old with the worst peripherals in the pen his closer.

greenfrog - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#300380) #

It seems like it's always "all hands on deck" with the Jays when it comes to players coming back from injuries. It's particularly galling in the case of Saunders (if in fact he has been playing hurt), given the cause of his injury. I still find it outrageous that Saunders suffered significant, perhaps career-threatening, damage to his knee because of poor groundskeeping.

robertdudek - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#300381) #

Actually, Castro's high leverage xFIP this season is 4.99, just a tick above the team reliever figure.

And what is the "excuse" for last season? If the bullpen was bad when it counted last season, and nothing much was done to it except make it weaker (by moving Sanchez into the rotation), what basis was there/is there to be optimistic about this year's bullpen?

In contrast, the three holdover starters have performed much worse than last season, so it reasonable to expect them to regress towards their established norms.

Mike Green - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#300384) #

Cecil has been a good reliever for a couple of years. This year, his W/K rates have been fine but he's been victimized so far by a 40% HR/FB rate. There is reason to believe that Loup will be pretty good, and that Delabar and Jenkins will be at least serviceable (considering their past records and performance in Buffalo). Osuna and Hendriks are more difficult to project, but I can easily see Hendriks being very good in a higher leverage bullpen role (in light of his success in the minors as a starter and the additional mph on his fastball and bite to his slider in the pen).

Unfortunately, I have modest confidence that Gibbons/Walker will use the pen in such a way as to maximize effectiveness.

robertdudek - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#300385) #

With the exception of Osuna, the current pen has no one with a significant chance of developing into a championship-caliber relief pitcher. Most are, at best, serviceable. Another exception is Sanchez, who should be, but likely won't be moved back to the bullpen.

There is a chance that Sanchez can evolve into a top-end starter but that is down the road if it ever comes. On the other hand, I can see him dominating at the back end of the bullpen right now. Every good bullpen needs an anchor.

This is a team on which MOST OF THE BEST PLAYERS are close to or past 30 - with Travis arguably being the ONLY exception. While they may be a statistically young team with all the youth they started the season with, it will be several years before that young talent matures. The Jays have an unusually bifurcated talent structure, with a fantastic aged core and a lot of promising young guys, but almost nothing in between.

Therefore, this team OUGHT TO BE in win-now mode.

It was an egregious error to begin the year without a solid back end of the bullpen if the aim was to compete this year. Castro and Osuna would never have been put in the spots they were had we had a bullpen worthy of a contending team.

JB21 - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#300386) #

But robertdudek, are the starters any better? The whole staff has been cover-your-eyes awful.

It needed repeating.

Mike Green - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#300388) #

It would be highly unlikely that the bullpen could be a particular strength of this team. But, with decent management, it could be serviceable. Teams have won World Series championships with serviceable bullpens. It does help considerably to have one or two pitchers in the pen who are excellent, and Sanchez had the best shot to do that. This takes us back to usage of pitchers.

Gerry - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#300389) #

Saunders had fluid on his knee and had to have it drained today.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#300390) #

With the exception of Osuna, the current pen has no one with a significant chance of developing into a championship-caliber relief pitcher.

Brett Cecil says hello.

eudaimon - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#300391) #

Bold prediction: the Blue Jays allow only four runs this series, proving again that baseball is inherently unpredictable.

Gerry - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#300392) #

The Jays lost both Andy Wilkins and Matt West to the Dodgers. The Jays could have DFA'd Guilmet, Hynes, Rasmussen or Tepera. Did the Jays front office choose the wrong guys?

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#300393) #

I still find it outrageous that Saunders suffered significant, perhaps career-threatening, damage to his knee because of poor groundskeeping.

gf, I'm curious where you learned that "poor groundskeeping" was concluded to be the cause of Saunders' injury. From what I understand, this is the first such injury since 1977 and was more in the freak occurrence category.

greenfrog - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#300394) #

Per Rosenthal, not conclusive either way, but "some with the club believe that an unsafe field may have contributed to an injury to the team�s new left fielder, Michael Saunders."

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-michael-saunders-unsafe-field-injury-031915

Magpie - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#300395) #

Brook Jacoby's 14 day suspension is a strange story. I haven't heard much in the way of details about it. Gammons did call the incident "ugly" and seeing as how this sport hands out five day suspensions for punching people, one wonders just how ugly it was...

John Northey - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#300396) #

Castro to AAA in the rotation makes a lot of sense. I'm really questioning Gibbons lately. The pen was his strength his first time here but this time it is a disaster as he cannot figure out what role for each pitcher, makes hunches that don't work out, and the overall effectiveness is just not there. Mix in stuff like batting Thole anywhere but 7/8/9.

The good thing is how he kept putting Pillar out there even though everyone assumed Pompey would win the CF job. Pillar has been amazing. For those complaining about too many kids - Pillar & Travis are exhibits 1 and 1A as to why you give kids chances. Castro & Pompey are examples of problems with it.

greenfrog - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#300397) #

Huge opportunity missed there by Pillar.

greenfrog - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#300398) #

And Martin picks him up (although he would have been out had the first baseman scooped Headley's throw). Also, would Martin's sharp grounder have made it past Headley on the old turf? My guess is yes.

uglyone - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#300399) #

look at that. an honest to goodness professional well played win. and our crappy bullpen easily outduels their awesome bullpen. feels good.

Great ballsy gutsy outing from Dickey when we needed it. and our D is really pretty amazing.

scottt - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#300400) #

It's Dickey who gets the win here not our crappy bullpen and for some unknown reason Chris Martin pitched the 8th or their awesome bullpen would probably have shut the Jays out.

uglyone - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#300401) #

the unknown reason being that betances snd miller can't pitch every game, and martin has been outright dominant?

scottt - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#300402) #

I see that Andrew Miller threw 32 pitches against Boston yesterday and wasn't available.
Better get a lead early in the rest of the series.

scottt - Monday, May 04 2015 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#300403) #

Martin has been outright dominant?

29 year old non-prospect taking advantage of the Yankee strike zone. Eventually one ball will clear the wall and he won't look so dominant.

92-93 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#300404) #

Big, big start from Dickey. The pen looked great tonight.

Estrada should throw approximately 60 pitches tomorrow, so it's good to have a fresh Jenkins ready to come in and provide as many innings as necessary. Jenkins threw 89 pitches on April 29th. With a more rested bullpen Gibby is more likely to use his better relievers earlier in the game, so you may see him use Loup to replace Estrada if he needs to keep the game in check.

I love beating the Yankees, especially a sweet comeback win like that.

TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:49 AM EDT (#300405) #

Great job by Pete Walker tonight. Gave us a great start and really shut things down there in the 9th. Let's see if he can keep it going tomorrow.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:10 AM EDT (#300409) #

Unsung heroes (non-Walker division): Edwin Encarnacion for getting a piece of Garrett Jones' sharp seventh-inning RBI grounder, Devon Travis for going way into the hole to track it down and fire to first, and R.A. Dickey for covering 1B. That was a crucial out. If The Hated Yankees� had a chance to go for the kill shot up 1-0 on Dickey with runners at the corners and one away, this game might have turned out very differently. Also: Donaldson for reading that Gardner wouldn't catch EE's blooper, and scoring easily.

Off the hook: Luis Rivera for giving Travis a red light at 3B on Donaldson's third-inning double. Maybe a little over-cautious, as if with Bautista on deck he needed to be 105% sure Travis would be safe at home.

That was a pretty good game. For the first 4 or 5 innings, Whitley was impressive.

Jevant - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#300410) #

Idle speculation: Could Gibby have put Thole there to allow for him to have Russ Martin pinch hit in a higher spot later in the game? I only say this because it has been virtually impossible to argue with Gibby's lineups all year, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#300411) #

To put things in perspective, R.A. Dickey and Aaron Sanchez are the Jays best Starters right now. It's possible they are the only effective ones on the Staff. After reading this: http://www.tsn.ca/buehrle-hurting-hutchison-battling-confidence-1.275099 ,I'm not encouraged.

I don't know if D.L. time is warranted any time soon, but I hope not. It's getting a little empty in options available. Buehrle's scheduled to pitch on Wednesday the 6th. With an Off Day on the 7th, I wonder if the Team can skip one or two of his Starts. That might be the only way Mark avoids the apparently necessary D.L. stint.

If anyone can remember how Hutchison threw in 2014 and in Spring Training this year, you might notice that whoever is pitching now isn't the same person. I'm still not sure I'm right. It's about how he's throwing what he's throwing, something looks different, something doesn't "feel" right. He has an issue throwing strikes, but that might not matter if he's dealing with a delivery/throwing mechanism issue. I might be wrong, but could this be as simple as comparing film? If this is more mental, it could take days, weeks, months, years to resolve. It took years for Romero is decide his knees was the problem. What might have been.

Gerry - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#300413) #

Chris Colabello is being called up for tonights game. No news of a corresponding move but could Saunders go on the DL? Or have the Jays tired of Carrera's defense?

92-93 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#300414) #

Solid speculation, Jevant. I'd like to know why he didn't use Martin for Thole in the 7th - was it because the bases were empty, and he wanted to give Martin as much of a rest as possible after he seemed to be nursing his groin on Sunday? Martin seemed to want none of that, stealing a base when he did get a chance to play.

Jevant - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#300415) #

Suggestion is that nobody is expected to go to DL, so have to imagine that Carerra is headed down.

Interesting timing, since Bautista still isn't playing the OF anytime soon, apparently, and presumably Saunders isn't for at least a few more days either, which would mean we're looking at a very thin bench, and an OF of Valencia/Pillar/Colabello for a few more games.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#300416) #

colabello can't play OF, can he?

Oceanbound - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#300417) #

He played 123 innings in RF last year for the Twins, racking up a sturdy -73.8 UZR/150.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#300418) #

yikes.

85bluejay - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#300419) #

Despite what he may say publicly, there's little doubt that Dickey seems much more comfortable with Thole behind the plate - I just don't think there's a place on the club for Navarro and when he comes back the jays need to move him even if it means giving him away - Smoak/Valencia @ 1B, Save Martin from the wear & tear of catching Dickey, make Dickey more comfortable - it's a win,win move.

I wonder if Brook Jacoby's dustup with the Umpires in Boston (14 game suspension) will have any longterm consequences for the Jays with the Umpires?

If Hutchinson continues to suck, observers may start pointing the fingers to his innings total from last year - his first back from TJ surgery when the Jays decided that no restrictions was the way to go.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#300420) #

What's the chances that the Jays sent Castro down to AAA to stretch out as a starter? If Castro is that good, does it not make sense to groom him in AAA as a starter and bring him up? Just thinking outloud.

jerjapan - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#300421) #

"29 year old non-prospect taking advantage of the Yankee strike zone. Eventually one ball will clear the wall and he won't look so dominant."

Chris Martin is an interesting case as an independent baseball league vet - gave up the game due to injuries but returned after 3 years in the real world. at 6 ft 8, and throwing around 95mph, in just his 4th year of organized pro ball, not so sure we can judge him by traditional benchmarks and call him a non-prospect.

JB21 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#300422) #

Where else would Colabello play but the OF? We don't exactly need another 1B/DH.

jerjapan - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#300423) #

Lylemcr, from the Star today:

"Anthopoulos did not rule out Castro returning to the big leagues as a starter; the 20-year-old will work as a starter � two or more innings at first � during his tenure in Buffalo."

also a nice Fangraphs blog entry by Eno Sarris on Hutchison's fantasy value:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-hutchison-greene-lincecum-soft-and-edge/

the takeaway is that his velo is down slightly and his sinker hasn't been getting whiffs. the money quote:

"Everything�s just a little worse this year, and the combination is a lot worse."

greenfrog - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#300424) #

It's possible that Hutch never quite regained all of his stuff/ability post-TJ surgery. Not everyone who undergoes TJ surgery fully regains his former pitching prowess.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#300425) #

all sorts of weird splits for hutch so far. he's handling lefties, getting crushed by righties, opposite of usual. he's been very good overall in his two starts at home, godawful in his four road starts.

not sure I buy Eno's velo argument - his fastball is down a slight tick but that is probably him trying to get a bit more command. (and greenfrog his velo has been better post tj than pre, and his slider last year was much better than before).

his batted ball data shows promise really - his gb% and iffb% are way up and his fb% way down. his soft contact % is up and his med and hard % are down.

i think right now the issue is probably more command than stuff. last start in particular he seemed unable to throw that slider anywhere close enough to temp the hitters to swing at it.

Gerry - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#300426) #

Jonathan Diaz has been sent down. Jayson Aquino, on the Dunedin roster, has been DFA'd. The Jays have two middle infielders on the roster, Travis and Goins.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#300428) #

Yeah, Hutch's command has been awful as has Sanchez and Norris. I know Martin elicited some derisive comments on an earlier thread, but with pitch framing, it takes 2 to tango. Can't frame pitches that are a foot outside the zone or bounce before they reach home plate.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#300429) #

We're now one minor injury away from seeing Danny Valencia play second base, or maybe Devon Travis playing shortstop.

Jevant - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#300430) #

Valencia has some experience at 2B if necessary, I guess, but yeah...have to imagine this is a relatively short term "solution".

Jevant - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#300431) #

Weirdly, the Jays active roster has listed him as an infielder. I have to assume he'll be playing some LF.

China fan - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#300432) #

I don't see any record of Travis playing a single inning as a SS in his minor-league career. But, good news! Josh Donaldson played an inning at SS in 2013! And there's Russell Martin of course.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#300433) #

Dickey's command has been poor as well. Last night's outing turned out well, but it was courtesy of the BABIP gods, good defence and a lighter opposition courtesy of the long Sunday night ESPN game (which caused Girardi to rest both Teixeira and McCann). Dickey walked three, struck out none and surrendered quite a number of hard-hit balls that were turned into outs.

All of the original five Blue Jay starters now have a FIP between 5 and 6. The xFIPs are between 4.5 and 5.5.

China fan - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#300434) #

The outfield tonight is Pillar, Colabello and Carrera. Exactly as we plotted it so carefully in the off-season!

Jevant - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#300436) #

And Bautista out of the lineup. That's a little bit worrying.

China fan - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#300437) #

If we're lucky, it's just a rest day for Bautista, who has hit poorly against Pineda in the past. And let's admit that Colabello has been totally on fire in Buffalo, with a slash line of .337/.421/.554. He deserved a chance at some point. And as I keep relentlessly reminding everyone, he's a better April than even Kirby Puckett ever had, setting the Twins all-time April hitting record. Unfortunately it's now May, so we'll see.

China fan - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#300438) #

Correction: the all-time Twins RBI record for April.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#300439) #

Josh Donaldson played an inning at SS in 2013! And there's Russell Martin of course.

There's gotta be some scenario that sees Martin playing the infield and Donaldson moving back behind the plate.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#300440) #

Okay, we're closer to that scenario than I thought. This just in from Shi Davidi: "With no backup INF, Josh Donaldson is emergency SS and Russell Martin contingency at 3B. Danny Valencia sprained his ankle walking up steps"

JB21 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#300441) #

Apparently Colabello was called up to play OF with Valencia banged up. They want to give Saunders today and tomorrow off with the off day Thursday. And Bautista gets the day off so EE can get a day off from 1B.

Does AA know about the DL?

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#300442) #

Oh boy. Don't let your local Blue Jay ride a two-wheeler. No trips to Wonderland either.

Q: would it have killed the club to send down a reliever rather than Diaz and go with a 6 man pen for a few days? They did get 8 innings from Dickey yesterday and they have a day off on Thursday, so it would have been for 2 days only. You could have Loup follow Estrada for 2 innings. Estrada threw 48 pitches on April 28, and he's probably good for 60 tonight.

JB21 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#300443) #

Why do baseball parks require baseball players to walk up and down steps with cleats on?

Seems less than ideal.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#300444) #

According to John Lott, Saunders is having his knee drained & getting cortisone shots, which makes one wonder why he was brought off the DL in the first place. I'm sure the Jays didn't anticipate Bautista being unable to field, which would have allowed some DH time for Saunders, but that doesn't seem like they've managed his injury well.

By my count, the team now has five players who are limited to 1b, DH, or pinch hitting. It's entirely possible we'll see a pitcher playing the field before the end of the week.

Gerry - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#300445) #

Maicer Izturis had a steps related injury last year too. Forget about grass, we need a steps do-over.

Sano - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#300446) #

I got a good chuckle from the following tweet (which I don't know how to link to so will just awkwardly transcribe):

"
Updated Blue Jays Injury Checklist:

Sprinkler - check

Bunt drill - check

Sneeze - check

Steps - check

Locusts -

Gigantism -
"

scottt - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#300447) #

Still missing:

Testicle pinched by cup,
Stepped into gopher hole,
Shoulder dislocated while ripping up a phone book,
Tanning salon burn,
Back sprained putting on cowboy boots,
Posterior bitten while sliding with false teeth in back pocket,
Elbow strain from signing autographs,
Thumb dislocated while putting on socks,
Spider bites,
Coyote bite.

John Northey - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#300448) #

Heh. I remember the spider nightmare for ... I think it was Glennallen Hill. Had a nightmare and smashed the glass table in his hotel room then crawled on the floor slicing up his hands and knees. Just as he was earning a full time job with the Jays too.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#300449) #

"I was washing my truck."

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#300450) #

You could have Loup follow Estrada for 2 innings.?

You'd think so Mike, but I'm not sure. Gibbons warmed up Loup ahead 10-2 on Saturday, then went instead to Francis Sunday ahead 6-4 in the 5th with the tying runs on. If Estrada goes 4.1 like Hutchison did, I suspect we may get to see Francis rise again if the first batter hits left, rather than see Loup. I would have much preferred to see Francis released today than Diaz sent down, as i think it's more likely they'll want to pinch hit for Goins than find a spot to use Francis, or at least a proper one, in the next several days. Francis seems like an easily replaceable way to open up a 40-man spot.

JB21 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#300451) #

Relatively speaking, Francis hasn't pitched all that badly. 14 k's in 10 innings, FIP of 3.13, xFIP of 3.31.

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#300452) #

I take it back. This looks like it may be a perfect spot for Jeff Francis in about 20 minutes.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#300453) #

What the BABIP gods give, they take away just as fast.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#300454) #

And the defence isn't as sharp. Sigh.

uglyone - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#300455) #

tough luck so far. let's see if estrada can pitch thru it. i don't think pineda is fooling us so far.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#300456) #

Estrada is probably done for the night. It was a good outing. He threw strikes, missed some bats and kept the ball in the park. A few bloopers/fliner, a weak infield hit and a throwing error, and a pop not caught.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#300457) #

I don't know why you would send Estrada out for the 5th inning.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#300458) #

That one I'll chalk up to Gibbons/Walker.

greenfrog - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#300459) #

The Jays' first two pitchers tonight were Estrada and Francis, and their bottom five hitters are Smoak/Pillar/Colabello/Goins/Carrera. Realistically, that's not going to win you too many games against AL opponents.

scottt - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#300460) #

The bottom five hitters for the Yankees doesn't appear to be any better.

3 hits, 0 BB, 0 RBI, 1 R, vs 1 hit, 1 BB, 0 RBI, O R but the Yankees got 4 extra ABs.

JB21 - Tuesday, May 05 2015 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#300462) #

To add to GF's point, Pineda was also on the mound. I wasn't expecting much out of tonight.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#300463) #

The Blue Jays biggest issue through most of the Team's existence is constantly bringing back players from the D.L. much too soon. Every single player brought back struggles or has problems/injury issues. How anyone thinking properly can equate 10 days of hitting and a few games of full Outfield play with a full Spring Training is beyond me. Most of this Season was on a 'wing and a prayer' anyway, so results shouldn't be too surprising.

TSN has said indications are Buehrle's hurt, I'm not as sure. But I think that whether it is a D.L. issue or not should have been decided earlier....oops, forgot they have no one to replace him. Most of the issues are Pitching-related anyway, and that not going to change anytime too soon.

As the Rookies/near Rookies go: Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna are successful; Dalton Pompey, Daniel Norris and Miguel Castro are not. Better than a 50% success rate is good. But aside from bigger or smaller injury issues, only Drew Hutchison has been unsuccessful. Even the continually changing, underachieving Bullpen is straightening out. But then every year is the same, at least one good Player short, this year as most, a Top Pitcher lacking. Just that might have meant 3-5 more games won.

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#300464) #

Dave Berg wasn't available to play left field tonight, apparently.

Gerry - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#300465) #

Ex-Blue Jay Carlos Perez made his MLB debut yesterday and hit a walk-off home run for the Angels.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#300466) #

By sending out Estrada for the fifth when he was obviously not set up to throw 80+ pitches, Gibbons/Walker sacrificed both the short- and long- term interests of the club. I realize that the club's chances of winning last night's game with Pineda on the mound and down 3-0 after 4 innings (and with a rested Andrew Miller) were not great, but there is a value to trying to win anyway. More importantly, having ill-prepared and fatigued pitchers throw increases the likelihood of injury.

85bluejay - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#300467) #

Have to feel good for Carlos Perez after what seems like forever to get the call - can't believe he is just 24y.o.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#300470) #

It's getting to be you can't tell who's on the Team without a program, and that's sad.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#300471) #

Incidentally, the logical choice to follow Estrada in the 5th inning was Chad Jenkins. Jenkins had thrown 6 innings on April 29 and 5 innings on April 23. You could safely put him out there for as long as he was throwing well; you'd hope to get at least 3 innings from him (and only that few if the game turned around and it became a high leverage situation).

uglyone - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#300473) #

if all these guys are gonna be injured, we really need EE to start hitting again.

its funny how all the new guys - martin, donaldson, travis - have been nothing less than sensational.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#300474) #

Dickey stepped up. Now we really need the same from Buehrle, even if the yanks are his nemesis.

Hodgie - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#300475) #

There are three Jays in the top 20 fWAR and not one of them is named Encarnacion or Bautista. For the record it is Martin, Travis, and Donaldson. Hands up of those that predicted that is how the season would start.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#300476) #

The amazing thing is that Martin started out ice cold - he was hitting 042/250/042 on April 16th. Since then, he's gone 357/455/804.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#300477) #

It's not really much of a surprise that Encarnacion is not one of the three top Blue Jays in fWAR. He's been at 4.3, 3.9 and 3.5 the last 3 years by this metric and his projection was below that of Martin and Donaldson. Bautista, of course, has been hurt.

And as for Travis, I lump him with Pompey. You could tell that both were talented players, and as rookies, there is a wider bar for expected performance. So far, Travis has exceeded the expectations and Pompey was short of them, but together, they were about where I expected them to be. And if the club let both of them play, I think that they'd contribute at about the same rate over the season (with Pompey doing better than he has early in the season and Travis not doing as well).

uglyone - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#300479) #

But it's actually kind of nice that Pillar might be giving us a legit opportunity to be more patient with Pompey.

i was reviewing Pillar's milb numbers and was struck not only by how good they were overall, with BB% and age the only drawbacks....but i was surprised by his stolen base ability. maybe i overlooked it because he was never in one place long enough to put up an eye catching steals number. Pillar stole 117sb in 1855pa, at a 78% rate. That's basically a 40sb full year pace. That includes 35sb at a 76% rate over basically one full season (652pa) at AAA.

That probably translates to what? 25sb potential in mlb?

suddenly Pillar's speed and defense is looking a whole lot more valuable than i thought it was, good enough to make a subpar bat valuable, as long as that bat isn't totally incompetent.

So far:

MLB: 345pa, 6/9sb, 3.5bb%, 20.9k%, .301babip, .248avg, .129iso, 80wrc+, 31.3drs/150, 15.3uzr/150
AAA: 652pa, 35/46sb, 5.1bb%, 13.3k%, .346babip, .315avg, .188iso, 134wrc+
AA: 327pa, 15/23sb, 5.8bb%, 9.5k%, .336babip, .313avg, .128iso, 124wrc+

80wrc+ is not gonna be good enough, even with speed and D.....but remember that includes an outright awful first stint 2yrs ago when he posted a 56. This year's 92 is in line with last year's 91....and if he can maintain it that will definitely play with his speed and D...he's been worth 1.3war the last 2yrs in 235pa with that wrc+ just over 90....that would be worth comfortably over 3war over a full season, which is a quality starting mlber.

if his D is legit (which almost seems silly to question at this point), all he needs is that 90+wrc+ to be a legit starting piece for us.

of course what's more encouraging about this year's number is that unlike last year, he's not being protected from rhp. in fact he's posted a 102wrc+ vRHP so far this year....its vLHP that's bringing him down.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#300481) #

With Saunders and Bautista injured, there's been plenty of room for Pillar and Pompey. Pillar felt the strains of competition last year (which led to the issue with Gibbons). This year it has been Pompey who felt the strains of competition.

What is strange is that the club had 5 outfielders going into camp who were reasonably plausible major league outfielders- Bautista, Pompey, Pillar, Saunders and Carrera. That is not a lot. Once Saunders was injured, the logical thing to do would be to have the other 4 on the major league roster and let Saunders fully recover. When Bautista developed the shoulder problem (while Saunders was still on his rehab assignment), it was all the more clear that you need the other 3 (at a minimum) on the major league roster.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#300482) #

i still think its the visible frustration pompey and norris showed that got them sent down, not just their actual performance.

pooks137 - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#300488) #

This year it has been Pompey who felt the strains of competition.

This seems to run counter to people's complaints/concerns over the offseason and ST that the Jays handed Pompey the starting CF job and didn't bring anyone to camp to challenge him for the job

I don't think anyone prior to ST thought that Pillar could play a competent CF, although his spectacular plays and good routes seem to have surprised many and won him the job. I also don't think Saunders was a legitimate option in CF even before his knee tore apart

I'm sure Pompey felt pressure while Pillar was making highlight reel catches every night while he was struggling with both glove and bat, but the Jays really had no Plan B in CF prior to Pillar's heroics, the plan was definitely Pompey or bust. I'm sure Pompey got frustrated with his struggles, but it's hard to blame it on too much competition on the roster

greenfrog - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#300489) #

Pompey is very young and was promoted rapidly through the minors in 2014, with little time in the high minors. It's not surprising he has struggled in the early going, while Travis (who is 24) has shown hinself to be more polished.

It was always possible that Pompey would hit the ground running, but I never felt that we should -expect- this to happen, Pompey's talent level notwithstanding.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#300490) #

I am not saying that Pompey should have been the default CF on Opening Day, but the club reasonably decided that he should be in light of the injury to Saunders.

Pompey was hitting reasonably well and fielding well until a week before his demotion. On April 22, he was hitting .255/.339/.455. He went 0-7 the following two days (during which time he had Danny Valencia and Steve Tolleson in left field and there were a couple of times where he did not take charge as he ought to) , and he was then moved to left field. He struggled mightily for another six days and was sent down. This isn't great handling of a prospect. If you are foolish enough to put infielders in the outfield on two successive nights and your rookie centerfielder doesn't handle interactions with them well, you ought not to move him on that account.

When Pompey moved from Dunedin to New Hampshire last year, he struggled for a couple of weeks and was hitting about .150. The club rightly left him there and he came around. They ought to have done the same thing this year.

scottt - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#300491) #

bottom five hitters are Smoak/Pillar/Colabello/Goins/Carrera. Realistically, that's not going to win you too many games against AL opponents.

Bottom five looking good again tonight.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#300492) #

pretty satisfying series win against a red hot yankees team. two much needed gutsy veteran performances from dickey and buehrle, great work from the bullpen, good D and hitting up and down the lineup....all while seriously shorthanded. a little bit of sloppiness and bad luck at the start of game two might have been all that kept us from a tidy sweep i think.

this is a series to build off, if they want to. Red Sox are in crisis right now so it would be nice to see us stomp on their neck a little bit. Hopefully the SP kids can follow the vets' lead.

and i wonder if colabello puts valencia's job in danger. heck, maybe even smoak's.

jerjapan - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#300493) #

How's Collabello at 1st? he's got reverse splits in the bigs and smoak is better batting lefty ... valencia is more versatile and is paid more ... hard to say. the jays definitely sound like they think they can get value out of smoak.

with neither of valencia and smoak having options, i'd say Collabello has to keep mashing to have a chance of not falling victim to the option shuttle.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 06 2015 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#300494) #

yeah he's probably the second coming of Randy Ruiz, but he's interesting.

scottt - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#300495) #

For now, he's depth. Which is good, if maybe unfair.
One more reason to trade Navarro, too.

Chuck - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#300496) #

Colabello is one single back of Bautista.

Chuck - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#300500) #

yeah he's probably the second coming of Randy Ruiz, but he's interesting

Said every Twins fan in April 2014.

Magpie - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#300510) #

How's Collabello at 1st?

No idea if he's any good at playing first, but he's certainly not an outfielder. He's always been a first baseman. He's 31 years old (same age as Randy Ruiz in 2009, and older than Valencia) and he's got about 50 or 60 professional games in the outfield

ogator - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#300511) #

And based on one game, he looks dreadful in the outfield.

sweat - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#300513) #

What did the twins used to say about David Ortiz?

Chuck - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#300514) #

What did the twins used to say about David Ortiz?

I am guessing that the Twins' fans probably said something like: "Hey Pohlad, you cheap bastard, why are you cutting loose a 26-year old who just put up a 120 OPS+? Isn't this the kind of player we'd want to keep, even if he is in line to make, gasp, a million dollars? He sure seems to be heading into his prime."

Mike Green - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#300516) #

The Red Sox have fired pitching coach Juan Nieves. From the linked article:
"It isn't Juan Nieves' fault that the Red Sox lack a proven No. 1 starter. Yet he's taking the fall for the club's underperforming rotation."

Chuck - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#300518) #

Look at Boston and Toronto's aggregated pitching lines. They are almost identical, though Boston's FIP is half a run lower.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#300519) #

As for the rotations specifically, Boston's has an ERA of 5.54 (Toronto 5.40), a FIP of 3.95 (Toronto 5.32) and an xFIP of 3.93 (Toronto 4.81). Just sayin'.

Chuck - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#300520) #

As Boston's ERA starts coming in line with their FIP and xFIP, the new guy will get the credit.

Thomas - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#300521) #

Ron Roenicke's replacement will also likely get similar credit. Milwaukee's not a good team, but they're not as bad as they were in April.

In fact, they're already playing at a .667 clip under his leadership.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#300522) #

Here is Rob Neyer's take (from "Just a Bit Outside" today) on Alison Gordon's memoir Foul Balls.

vw_fan17 - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#300523) #

As Boston's ERA starts coming in line with their FIP and xFIP, the new guy will get the credit.

Doesn't FIP/xFIP assume a normal/average defense? Panda Bear, Hanley and Napoli aren't exactly known for defensive prowess..

Maybe I'm way off, but to me, this says that since ERA, FIP and xFIP are almost the same for the Jays, the starters have basically been getting their just desserts, with the defense rarely making it worse for them. OTOH, it seems that the Boston defense has been giving up quite a few additional runs that aren't the pitching's fault but are being charged to them. So, I actually DON'T expect FIP/xFIP to come in line with ERA - they're not suddenly going to get better defense from their veterans. Unless they've been unreasonably bad? Or am I totally misunderstanding this? My understanding is that ERA is basically FIP or xFIP + however good/bad your defense is.

A quick glance at BR shows this:
Jays team dWar: +1.9
Sox team dWar: -0.9 - that's a difference of almost 3 games!

Jays pitching War: -1.8
Sox pitching War: 1.2 - again, almost 3 games!

Adding it up:
Jays pitching + defense War: 1.9 - 1.8 = 0.1
Sox pitching + defense War: 1.2 - 0.9 = 0.3

So, while the Boston pitching has been noticeably better, the good Jays defense and bad Boston defense combine to just about completely offset the difference.

oWar is almost identical between the two teams: 4.8 for the Jays, 4.9 for the Sox. Adding it all up:
Toronto: 4.8 + 0.1 = 4.9
Boston: 4.9 + 0.3 = 5.2

Pretty close - and lo and behold, our records are as close as they can get without being even - the Sox are 0.5 games behind the Jays.

Some notes:
The Red Sox worst dWar are:
Ramirez at -0.7 - who didn't see this coming?
Napoli at -0.4 - not a surprise
Allen Craig at -0.3 - jack of all trades, master of none?
Panda at -0.2

Jays: EE at -0.3. The rest are -0.1 (Tolleson, Diaz) or better.

Best Sox: Betts (no surprise) +0.8, Bogaerts (same) +0.2, Hanigan (DL) +0.2. Everyone else at 0.1 or below
Best Jays: Pillar at +1.1! Add in Pompey at +0.5, and LF/CF has been AWESOME! Others at +0.2: Valencia (surprise!), Travis, Reyes, Martin

So, it seems the improved defense really is "a thing", if this keeps up - last year, for the season, the Jays were -2.2 dWar.

scottt - Thursday, May 07 2015 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#300524) #

Also Fenway has been pitcher friendly so far this year.

Park Factor up to now 0.889
2014 1.072
2013 0.960
2012 1.206
2011 1.173
2010 1.083

That looks like luck to me, so I'm expecting their FIP to drift upward.

greenfrog - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#300528) #

Old friend Adam Lind is off to a tremendous start, hitting 333/409/625 / wRC+ 177 / 1.1 fWAR. It's too bad the Jays couldn't get a bit more for him in return. His hit tool apparently has value, even for an NL team.

whiterasta80 - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#300532) #

I still think Estrada puts up 20+ starts of basically average pitching (i.e. Happ). But it would be nice to have a power lefty in this lineup (sadly Lind makes Colabello look like Griffey Jr in the outfield).

JB21 - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#300534) #

Just this morning I was looking at Lind's numbers (to see how he was doing against LHP) and was thinking he'd be nice in our lineup but with our current situation of Bautista not being able to play the field, where does Lind play?

uglyone - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#300535) #

didn't like losing lind, but then again Smoak/Colabello have combined for about a 150wrc+ for peanuts, and they can actually field 1b.

electric carrot - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#300536) #

Lind -- sure he's got something. The guy I miss is Morrow. I was hoping Alex would sign him as a FA just so we had options. He'd be the best pitcher on this staff at his current pace.

Chuck - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#300537) #

He'd be the best pitcher on this staff at his current pace.

However. in true Morrow form, he is hurt once again.

uglyone - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#300539) #

you think this is the year, at age 30, that morrow finally has his first legit good year as an mlb SP?

92-93 - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#300540) #

"By sending out Estrada for the fifth when he was obviously not set up to throw 80+ pitches, Gibbons/Walker sacrificed both the short- and long- term interests of the club."

Nope. The Blue Jays were down 3 runs against a pitcher who looked like he was in control. You had a lineup with Martin batting 3rd and Smoak 5th. They were playing their 15th game in a row, and their bullpen has been overworked. Estrada gave up 3 runs early, but then had a clean 3rd and 4th. Gibbons HAS to try and get a 5th inning out of him there, and he needs Estrada's arm stretched out.

Some of you seem to want John Gibbons to manage games in late April and early May as if it's October, and it's just not going to happen.

Jevant - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#300541) #

Well said. It's clear that with the week the Jays had set up in front of them, Gibbons has been trying to get as much rest for as many people as possible (obviously in part because of how many guys are playing hurt), and I have a hard time seeing how a swingman like Estrada isn't already set up to throw 80+ anyways. He's been bouncing back and forth for long enough now that that shouldn't be an issue.

electric carrot - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#300542) #

you think this is the year, at age 30, that morrow finally has his first legit good year as an mlb SP?

Maybe. I haven't completely given up on him. He never seemed that far away from getting it altogether to me. Also, I thought the blue jays had a team makeup where having a few wildcards in their back pocket would be helpful.

ComebyDeanChance - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#300543) #

Old friend Adam Lind is off to a tremendous start, hitting 333/409/625 / wRC+ 177 / 1.1 fWAR. It's too bad the Jays couldn't get a bit more for him in return

Couple of thoughts. I think the team's overall view of Lind was addition by subtraction. He gave at least one childish video interview where, when asked about the failure to add at the trade deadline, he giggled something like 'It's the same here every year'. That view is buttressed by the usually tight-lipped Anthopolous telling reporters that of the teams that he spoke to about Lind, only two offered anything in the way of players. You don't usually see Anthopolous offer any comment at all, let alone one like that. I don't think they were sad to see the back of Adam Lind and I don't think there was much of a market for him.

Mike Green - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#300545) #

I see you changed your mind, 92-93. You said earlier up-thread:

Estrada should throw approximately 60 pitches tomorrow, so it's good to have a fresh Jenkins ready to come in and provide as many innings as necessary. Jenkins threw 89 pitches on April 29th. With a more rested bullpen Gibby is more likely to use his better relievers earlier in the game, so you may see him use Loup to replace Estrada if he needs to keep the game in check.

James W - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#300547) #

What's the issue with Martin hitting 3rd? That he should be 2nd or 4th? I agree the bottom half of the lineup was weak on Tuesday, but any shots taken at Russell Martin are going to be off the target.

Ryan Day - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#300548) #

Morrow's been so erratic, and has been hurt so often, that you really can't consider him an "option". There's simply no flexibility to him - he might be great, he might be awful, he might not pitch at all, and you have no idea how long any of it might last. You might catch lightning in a bottle, but you really shouldn't count on it.

It would be one thing if he was willing to pitch in relief, but he didn't seem to consider that an option.

Gerry - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#300549) #

Chad Jenkins down, Ryan Tepera up.

Mike Green - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#300550) #

Why? Jenkins threw 2 innings three days ago. He threw like Chad Jenkins. What happened between Monday and Friday that would make a club believe that Jenkins was a better choice on Monday and Tepera a better choice on Friday? Does the club believe that the experience of travelling from Buffalo to Toronto gives a pitcher special power for a day or two?

electric carrot - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#300551) #

Morrow's been so erratic, and has been hurt so often, that you really can't consider him an "option".

Morrow has been up and down -- but a career 4.22 era guy with good peripherals and a fantastic year in 2012 -- I think he's worth a shot even if he only gives you a half a season due to injuries.

Mike Green - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#300552) #

In his fantastic year, Morrow threw 124 innings. His BBRef WAR figures age 24-29: 0.2, 1.6, 1.2, 3.2, -.6, -.2. There's nothing wrong with having a few pitchers like this around in spring training to see if they are healthy and might be able to give you 100 good innings at some point.

Thomas - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#300553) #

Since May 1, which is a stretch of six games given the off day, the 7th spot in the bullpen (assuming Delabar was a straight replacement for Castro) has been filled by, in order, Andrew Albers, Scott Copeland, Chad Jenkins and Ryan Tepera.

uglyone - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#300555) #

yeah if a 30yr old's best season was all of 124ip, i'm not still dreaming on him.

as a dirt cheap flyer, sure, but that's it.

uglyone - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#300556) #

Thomas - imo that's absolutely brilliant bullpen planning and management. AA is ahead of the curve here.

acepinball - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#300557) #

I think Jenkins goes down to keep him stretched out for the rotation. Oddly enough, the right-handed relievers are actually shaping up. The rotation options are not.

If Estrada blows up in his next 2 starts, Jenkins will be back.

jerjapan - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#300560) #

Thomas - imo that's absolutely brilliant bullpen planning and management. AA is ahead of the curve here.

Strongly agree Ugly - the best way to maximize the last spot in the pen is exactly what AA is doing. fresh arms, matchups with specific teams, the hot hand ... Jenkins has options and frankly, I don't see a better role for him than the one he serves on the Buffalo shuttle.

China fan - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#300561) #

"....I don't see a better role for him than the one he serves on the Buffalo shuttle..."

Well, the ideal best role would be if he can finally turn into a legitimate starter. That's what the Jays are trying to do this year, and frankly there's an opening in the rotation if he can do it. It's still a longshot -- but those 6 shutout innings in the marathon extra-innings game last year will always have me wondering if might be able to do it.

jerjapan - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#300563) #

China, I just don't share the optimism around Jenkins - the guy is hittable and doesn't strike anyone out. The best I can say for him is that he's consistently around the zone and gets the ball on the ground - but he gets hit to hard for those skills to really matter and he plays in the wrong stadium to maximize what he is.

I will gladly eat crow on this if he can become a back of the rotation starter - I just don't see it happening.

92-93 - Friday, May 08 2015 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#300564) #

Circumstances change, Mike. In that game Estrada did not labour through the 3rd and the 4th, so it made sense to try and stretch him out a little bit more when the team was already down 3 runs with a weakened lineup. When I speculated Gibby might go to Loup earlier, I had a 2-runners-on-1-or-2-run-game kind of situation on my mind, not to just throw him into the top of the 5th inning because Estrada hit a pitch count down 3 runs.

The bullpen seemed to work the next night, when he had a rested Osuna/Loup/Cecil to deploy to protect a lead and win the series. Those same guys should each be fresh for another big home series vs. Boston, and as I type this they may have another tight lead to protect tonight.

scottt - Saturday, May 09 2015 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#300583) #

I just don't share the optimism around Jenkins - the guy is hittable and doesn't strike anyone out.

Let's compare Buehrle and Jenkins. Why is one guy worth 18M and the other not worth using for free?
I don't think it's the strike out rate or even the ERA that makes the difference.

jerjapan - Saturday, May 09 2015 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#300589) #

How is Jenkins more valuable than Tepara, Francis, Delebar or anyone else who is essentially 'free'?

If only there was a word for players that could swapped out for other players in the minors with no meaningful performance dip ....

scottt - Saturday, May 09 2015 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#300590) #

Delabar hasn't started a game since 2007 when he had an ERA of 5.96 in A ball.
Francis had 2 season with an ERA+ over 100 and that was about 10 years ago.
Tepera is a sinker/slider guy who suddenly put it together in the pen.
Actually, anyone knows if he mastered the changeup or just gave it up?

Jenkins is exactly replacement level and is best used whenever a regular is not available.
So far this year, Estrada and Hutch have produced .1 WAR each and Buerhle is at negative .5.

jerjapan - Sunday, May 10 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#300638) #

Scottt, what's your ideal pitching staff at the moment? I'm actually pretty happy with the current configuration, with Tepera and Delabar auditioning for the last two spots in the pen and Estrada holding down the fort in the rotation till Norris rights himself or a Wolf-type convinces the brass that the teams better with them in the 5th spot and Estrada in the pen. Personally, I don't see Jenkins being a factor at all - my next call ups would be Rasmussen or Schultz for a legit audition (as opposed to the Buffalo shuttle type short-term move), with Stilson in the picture if he comes back strong.

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