if we don't win this series outright my panic button trigger finger will be itching.

My fire Gibby finger is already itching and it's still April. Hockey isn't over and baseball is already giving me grief.

yeah i say we trade for hamels.

Whats really amazing is that the hitting has been almost as bad as the pitching. Score 10 or 12 one game and then go 5 games with practically nothing. I know the stats say they have scored a lot but not so much when they really need one IMO.

doesn't help that our rookie who never played above AA before this year has the most mature approach at the plate on the teamm

Good move to remove Norris. I don't know why you would choose Francis though in the 4th inning. He threw yesterday. I would have send someone out there who could go 2 innings plus.

now that's an ugly one. but i'll take it

78 pitches over 3.0 innings was just a bit extreme. Still the dead arm is it?

Pompey is struggling; would Colabello be promoted to take place ?

Whats really amazing is that the hitting has been almost as bad as the pitching. Score 10 or 12 one game and then go 5 games with practically nothing.

That's not remotely comparable.  They lead the AL in run scored, 2nd in double, 4th in HR (just one short).

They're second worse in ERA, but they lead the AL in walks, hits allowed,  Home runs allowed and opponents hit by a pitch. Somehow the Yankees have managed more wild pitches but that's probably because their pitchers have great stuff as they are 3rd best for ERA.

Yep. 2-5 in one run games and 5-3 in 4+ run games. Feast or famine.

There are reports that the Jays will probably promote Andrew Albers today.  I wrote a few comments about it in the minor-league thread.

I found last night's win very satisfying. 

Yes, Norris struggled but it was a good struggle.  He didn't have control of his breaking stuff, but Martin kept going back to it.  Short term pain (not be able to go more than 3 innings) for long-term gain.  The Indians' announcers were all over Martin for not letting Norris air out the fastball more.  I thought that he was completely right; the Indians were sitting dead red and it was an important learning step for Norris which will serve him well down the road.

The relievers came in and threw strikes, and took advantage of the fine team defence and the favourable wind conditions to shut the Indians down. Meanwhile the hitters did not press.  House was able to hit the outside corner at the knees pretty much at will, but after 3 innings of flailing, they began taking him the other way and that was that.  The process of checking egos at the door hopefully is well under way. 

I'll guess that Castro is being sent down for Albers.  The Indians don't have much RH pop.  I am guessing that Albers is around to play the Francis role for the next few days. 

I'll guess that Castro is being sent down for Albers.

Anyone on the roster without a Canadian passport better start looking over his shoulder.

wouldn't be shocked to see Norris sent down.

For the most part, the young players have looked about as good as you'd expect a bunch of rookies with limited major league (and in some cases, limited minor league) experience. They've struggled, but no one's looked clearly out of their depth. (Pompey has had a rough time lately, but he's still hitting a few notches better than Edwin Encarnacion.)

The Jays will have to make room on the 40-man roster for Albers, but I don't see that as a problem.   There are a number of marginal relievers and infielders who could be dropped from the roster: from Matt West and Ryan Tepera to Matt Hague and Andy Wilkins.    I'm also wondering if Izturis could be transferred to the 60-day DL.

It's now being reported that Albers will get the start tonight against Cleveland, instead of Buehrle.  So, either the Jays have decided that the entire rotation needs an extra day of rest, or they've decided that Norris or Sanchez should be pulled from the rotation.  In the latter scenario, Norris or Sanchez could be demoted, or they could be added to the bullpen, with Castro demoted.  There's also speculation that Hendriks could be DFA'd, although that seems unlikely in view of his good performances earlier this month.

why would they push back Buehrle? that doesn't make sense.

The young position players have, as a group, done better than reasonable expectations.  Travis, Pillar and Pompey have combined for 1.9 fWAR (and 2.6 bWAR) through 67 games total.  That's an average of over 4 fWAR per player per 150G.  They've all played good defence (Pillar has, of course, been excellent).  The combined BABIP of just under .300 seems eminently sustainable as a group.  There's every reason to believe that Travis won't hit as well as he has over a season and that Pompey will hit better over the season, but so far, they all appear to be valuable contributors to a winning club.

The young pitchers have, as a group, struggled.  I am still delighted that they have Russell Martin around to guide them, and I have confidence that as a group, they will be better over the season than they have been to date.  

Wow, are they hiding Buerhle from the Yankees again?

Narvarro could also go to the 60-day DL to open a spot for Albers -- not sure how serious his injury is... but it sounds like it could be a 8-10 week deal. If he's moved to the 60-day DL, he would be eligible to return after June 21st. Izturis could be moved to the 60 day DL and would be eligible to return after May 27th -- that seems realistic given that he hasn't starting rehabbing yet (to my knowledge).

Shi Davidi just tweeted that Albers is bullpen depth, not starting.

Yes, and Wilner is reporting the same, so the earlier report (about Albers starting) seems incorrect.  It remains to be seen who will be removed from the major-league roster to make room for Albers.

What's the scouting report on Albers again? Any upside there, or just a warm body?

Now that we know Albers is coming up for the bullpen, the question is why him? I assume the Jays were looking for someone who could pitch multiple innings but many of the relievers in Buffalo have been doing that.

The names under consideration include all five starters, Wolf, Jenkins, Redmond, Copleand and Albers. Jenkins and Redmond are still working through things so I can see why they did not come up. Wolf's numbers are not as good as Albers. But Copeland's numbers have been excellent, and he profiles better as a reliever.

On the relief side Tepera, Schultz, Guilmet and Rasmussen have been pitching, generally, two innings each time out. Their numbers are better than Albers too. And some of these players are on the 40 man roster.

I wonder if anyone will ask why Albers? The Canadian angle might be one possible answer.

I think that they want a lefty, and Rasmussen threw 3.2 innings last night.

So it's Norris being optioned to Buffalo to make room for Albers, as I kind of suspected.  Norris needs to work on some stuff.  So there's an opening in the rotation.  Lots of interesting candidates: Copeland, Jenkins, Wolf, Albers, Estrada, Francis...

gotta be estrada imo.

Why Estrada? His ERA is less than one and is showing a nice K-rate.

A few days yet before a Starting Pitcher decision needs to be made. I suspect a Reliever goes down first, possibly Castro to work on his control or possibly Albers if ineffective.

I don't agree with the decision to send Norris down.  He does need to work on controlling his breaking ball, but they knew that when they gave him the job out of spring training.  He has performed exactly as should have been expected and if you thought he was ready for a big-time job at the beginning of April, nothing has happened that ought to change one's mind. 

One of the things the Tampa development people say is that they don't bring up starters for the rotation until they think they are ready, and that they are not about to give up after one or two rough outings. 

I kinda agree with it.

Norris really had no idea whatsoever where the ball was going last night. It was ugly. It seems like it was getting to him mentally, too.

Hopefully this works out like sending Stroman down worked last year.

eudaiman - I meant its gotta be estrada going into the rotation.

The Jays have announced that Estrada will take the Norris spot in the rotation on Tuesday.  That's the conservative choice, and probably makes sense.  I'd still like to see Jenkins or Copeland get a chance if Estrada doesn't seize the opportunity.

Albers, unlike Francis and Hendriks, has options left, so he could be sent down and replaced with another reliever at some point if the Jays need another fresh arm.

Izturis goes onto the 60-day DL to make room for Albers on the 40-man roster.

"....they don't bring up starters for the rotation until they think they are ready...."

Stroman is the counter-argument.  Sure, he was initially in the bullpen in his first promotion before he was sent back down, but he's similar to Norris:  a young starting pitcher who was obviously close to a rotation spot, but didn't do very well in his first few appearances.  Stroman was back in the majors, for good, after a demotion of less than three weeks.  Could happen to Norris too.

I didn't like the Stroman demotion, but this one is worse. 

A club has to decide its development philosophy with young pitchers.  I prefer a philosophy more like Tampa's. 

Some prospects are easily convinced of what they must learn, others require failure. Different strokes for different folks.

"....A club has to decide its development philosophy with young pitchers..."

Sure, but a philosophy should not be a straight-jacket.  There has to be room for exceptions.  I don't understand why any guiding philosophy should have to be a rigid rule.  Life is always presenting cases that don't find the guidelines.

There is a pattern on this club of quick promotion into important roles (Castro to the closer and Norris to the rotation) with no real commitment.  I thought that the Castro move was an obvious mistake and needed correction, but the Norris move was not.  In any event, I don't think it's a question of exceptions, but rather one of overall philosophy.  At least with Sanchez and Stroman, they did go through the bullpen apprenticeships (and in Stroman's case, it was clear that he was ready).

Travis is out tonight.  Donaldson leads off with Bautista batting second, Encarnacion third and Martin cleaning up.  It's odd facing a RHP who has typical splits, but I guess that Gibbons has no confidence in Saunders or Pompey to take a more important role.  It is not what I would have done, but there is an interesting sabermetric aspect to having the players with the highest projected OBP batting 1/2 notwithstanding average speed. 

I'm more of a "hot hand" guy myself. There's no denying Castro and Osuna had those coming out of spring training, so I'm not concerned that they were put into important roles early on (especially considering the competition, and the fact that Cecil isn't quite 100% yet). I think Norris earned the job out of spring training, but didn't make the necessary adjustments. I think a demotion is a good idea, because it might help him clear his head and figure out what he needs to get done.

I don't agree with the decision to send Norris down. He does need to work on controlling his breaking ball, but they knew that when they gave him the job out of spring training. He has performed exactly as should have been expected and if you thought he was ready for a big-time job at the beginning of April, nothing has happened that ought to change one's mind.

I disagree with the decision as well, though not because nothing's changed. It could have been the wrong decision in April, it could have been they hoped he'd improve more, etc.

I disagree with the decision because his immediately previous start was one of the best by anyone on the team this year. He went 7 innings and gave up 1 run in Tampa, and would have won the game had it not been for the 8th inning bullpen fiasco. This was the game that Osuna was removed after striking out the first two and allowing a bloop single, leading to the predictable mess that followed. Sure, Norris had no control last night, but he still managed to not give up a run over three innings, even if against a team that obviously is going to struggle against left-handed pitching.

Young pitchers are going to struggle, particularly with control. I don't think Norris was hurting the team. I don't think he'll learn as much in the minors. I don't think his replacement will fare much better. Not much reason to demote him, in my view.

"organizational philosophies" often become more myth than reality.

by my count Alex Cobb was sent up and down no less than 4 or 5 times before winning a fulltime spot. Odorizzi 2 or 3 times. Archer at least once and maybe twice.

CBDC, I agree with all that.  When I said that "nothing has changed", I meant that I anticipated that he would have good outings (like the one before last) and bad outings (like last night's) and that he would have control issues and that he would not overall hurt the club.  If the club anticipated that he would go out and throw 6-7 good innings most times out in his first month, they pretty clearly had some unreasonable expectations. 

Pompey strikes me as a bit like the positional player equivalent of Norris. It wouldn't surprise me to see him sent down at some point. My sense last September was that he looked raw, despite the promising results (in a small sample of September stats). His AFL showing (and Kiley McDaniel's secondhand report from one or more scouts in Arizona that he was less raw than McDaniel had thought) gave me some hope that he might be ML-ready to start the 2015 season. We'll see whether he can make the necessary adjustments (entirely possible), or whether opposing pitchers start to find and exploit his weaknesses, leading to a possible stint in the minors.

My sense last September was that he looked raw

That was my sense as well and still is. There's a very good MLB player in there, but we may not get him out for a little while. Unfortunately, the outfield ranks are so thin that fine tuning in AAA may not be a possibility.

a week ago pompey had one of the best rookie lines in baseball...9.7bb%, 21.0k%, .300babip, .339obp, 120wrc+...so as of now i'll chalk it up to having a bad week (0.0bb%, 28.0k%, .118babip, -37wrc+).

but fair enough it could be more than that.

"....It wouldn't surprise me to see him sent down at some point...."

Pompey won't be sent down as long as Bautista and Saunders continue to have their problems.  Bautista still can't throw, and doesn't seem close to throwing, so he'll probably be the DH for weeks to come.  Saunders has been having defensive and offensive woes.

But I agree that Pompey might eventually need a stint in the minors again.  If so, one possible replacement is Ezequiel Carrera.  I had thought of Carrera as a defense-first CF type, but I notice that he has an OPS of .832 in Buffalo so far this season, and he had an OPS of .809 for Toledo last year.  He could be a stopgap if Pompey needs to work on things in the minors. But perhaps only after Bautista is back in RF and Saunders is playing better.

If it's something to do with Norris' "dead arm," okay. If not...

One of the reasons why I like Gibby, he has a couple hitters missing so instead of putting some "traditional" lead off and 2 hole batters in there he just throws his best 3 hitters in the 1-2-3 slots. Why not? More AB's for your best hitters? What a novel idea.

So now Donaldson is limping..... Does this mean Edwin might end up at 3rd if Josh can't continue?

Some of the stories coming out this evening note that Norris is a perfectionist and that he had trouble getting over bad pitches or bad results.

What happened to Donaldson? How banged up is he?

Apparently tweaked his knee on a fouled off hit and run. Ended up scoring a batter later but was obviously limping around 3rd. Went into the clubhouse with the trainer but stayed in the game, at least so far.

i have never seen starting pitching this bad.

this is untenable.

Yeah this pitching cannot stand. I was hoping Buerhle would give another Buerhlesque season but so far it's been ugly. I still wouldn't worry, except all those retirement rumours have me wondering if he's mentally checked out a bit.

Pompey is another player who is very hard on himself. When Bautista is ready to play the outfield I can see Pompey going to the minors to get his form back and his head straight.

I somehow doubt that it was a dead arm, Alex, that resulted in Norris' dismissal.  He had the velocity on his fastball up to 94 and he had movement on it.  If anything, it was undead.

This pitching reminds me of 1977. No lead is safe.

ERA isn't everything, but the Jays sent down the one starter they had with an ERA under 5. (Sort of cheating, as Buerhle just went over tonight; but he went waaaay over; Sanchez could probably creep under 5 with a good start.

One can't say Norris was good, but he was definitely less bad than others.

I don't know if Norris was really less bad. They all currently have FIPs over 5

I sure hope they don't send Pompey down on the theory that he is hard on himself (and I hope that wasn't the reason they sent Norris down).  Pompey has had a serviceable start to the season.  The club traded Gose with the idea that he would be the centerfielder.  He's a fine defensive player and does some things to help you with the bat and glove.  If you're not going to give young players something of a chance, you better have a different approach to your budget. 

If they send Pompey because he's in a hopeless funk, that's another story.  I haven't seen that.

Buehrle started pretty badly in 2013, but ended up righting the ship and having a decent season overall. I'm not too worried about him yet, despite the fact that he's been just plain awful the past while.

This team could use an undead arm or three. Is Jamie Moyer in game shape?

Pompey and Albers to Buffalo. Carrera and Copeland called up.

Neither are on the 40 man roster, two moves are required. Albers going back off could be one of them.

I see that Shi Davidi's "Farm Report" essentially copies the format of Gerry's minor league reports (providing front office quotes regarding various prospects). I remember when Davidi's retrospective on the Jays' drafts came out last year -- a day or two after Gerry's look back at previous drafts. I guess imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

There has been a lot of talk about the Jays' young players, but another key factor for the Jays' success or failure this season will be health. Already the Jays have had a number of injuries, ranging from devastating (Stroman) to concerning (Saunders, Cecil, Reyes, Navarro, Bautista) to being banged up early on (EE, Pompey, Travis, now Donaldson).

Performance of the young players and team health: two keys to the Jays' season, as I wrote before the season (the third factor I mentioned was Rogers' willingness to add players at the deadline; we'll revisit that one in July).

You could see the Pompey demotion coming.

Pompey can turn on an inside fastball when batting left handed. Teams have started to pitch him away and Pompey can't quite handle those pitches yet.

As we know Pompey is weaker from the right side.

Pompey does have a good eye and plays good defense but at some point the struggles can beat down a young player. It can be better to get him out before he really gets down on himself.

Odd pitching change tonite. Buerle is done, so replace him with ... a soft tossing left-hander.

A short lived MLB stint for Albers, and for the record 5 Canadians on the roster.

I also add my disagreement with the rapid demotion of Norris.

On the bright side, those who wanted to keep young players in the minors to avoid super2 status and/or extend years of control should be pleased.

One of the reasons why I like Gibby, he has a couple hitters missing so instead of putting some "traditional" lead off and 2 hole batters in there he just throws his best 3 hitters in the 1-2-3 slots. Why not? More AB's for your best hitters? What a novel idea.

But not a very good one. It means that Donaldson is certain to have at least one at bat with no one on base. Absolutely certain. Which is exactly what happened with his homerun. We'll know it's a good idea when we see major league managers doing it.

I suppose he could've gone with a high OP% guy and then JD, JB, EE but my point still stands. A lot of MLB managers (the ones you speak of in your last point) would've put a fast guy like Pompey or Pillar in the lead off slot and then had one of Goins/Diaz in the 2 hole. Managers have proven to not exactly be ahead of the curve, or even in the same vicinity of the curve.

"On the bright side, those who wanted to keep young players in the minors to avoid super2 status and/or extend years of control should be pleased."

Six weeks in the minors for Norris to recalibrate, from which you gain an extra year of control. It's also a lot easier to manage a kid's innings in the minors than in the majors, where the manager does not want to be yanking his starters in the 5th and constantly taxing his bullpen.

I don't like the Norris decision at all -- he hasn't been that bad and, as others have mentioned, he may well be better than any alternative (especially when factoring in the effect on the bullpen). Heck, if I had to choose who'd be the best SP over the next month, I might even choose Norris. Who knows. But that's the point, I think -- it's too early.

That said, if they're going to send him down, the best rationale is the one 92-93 presents. But I also suspect it has little to do with the decision -- there's little incentive for the current front office to concern themselves with the state of the franchise circa 2021.

there's little incentive for the current front office to concern themselves with the state of the franchise circa 2021

Tangled, I see this meme frequently, but I want to challenge the idea that values other than self-interest are but 'little incentive'.   AA strikes me as a man with a vision and reasonable integrity, which leads me to believe he would not harm the club long term to potentially extend his job security.  but how could either of us possibly know?

This idea just seems like the discounting principle to me.

Blue Jays have DFA'd Matt West and Andy Wilkins.

not sure whether i agree with it or not, but i think norris and pompey's demotions were as much due to their visible frustration out there as their actual struggles.

sanchez, for example, still looks unflappable out there, even when struggling...though that won't save him indefinitely, either.

JerJapan, I agree with you, in that I think people make too much of this sometimes. He's certainly not going to make some crazy trade to help them win this year, at the expense of the future. He's not that type of guy. But in less significant cases, like this one, I can see how it'd play a role. Anthopoulos on year six (of possibly six) is going to think differently about 2021 than he would were this his first year at the helm of a new team, no? Of course, we don't really know the answer.

While we're on the topic, though, I will say that I don't necessarily buy the idea that if they don't make the playoffs this year, he's gone. Wilner seems to think it's a certainty but I'm (a) skeptical; (b) of the view that that's an asinine way for ownership to make decisions. They have enough information about Anthopoulos now to make any such decision on his future, so why base it all on something so unpredictable and random as how an individual season plays out?

To crassly quote myself: Heck, if I had to choose who'd be the best SP over the next month, I might even choose Norris.

I just came across an article from earlier this week on FanGraphs, in which the author looks at the K/pitch rate of pitchers so far this year (as the larger per-pitch sample size gives us better information this early in the season), and offers up a list of "guys with significant upside who should enjoy a strikeout rate surge in the near future." And who's on that list but Daniel Norris.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-starting-pitcher-strikeout-rate-surge-candidates/

Promote Colabello, option Diaz, try Valencia at SS ?

They have enough information about Anthopoulos now to make any such decision on his future, so why base it all on something so unpredictable and random as how an individual season plays out?

Well, yes, but the info they have from the previous years is no playoffs and a winning record that does not improve year over year.

I'm not sure comparing Norris to the others is useful. the others have been horrendous. if they were 22yr old rookies with no track record they'd be getting sent down toom and careful looking too closely at norris' rate stats since he has pitched the fewest ip per start and has not yet been asked to push even into a third turn round a lineup yet i don't think.

and speaking of 22yr old rookies with no track record, today is Sanchez' 5th start too. If he gets blown up again i'd lay good money on hendriks taking that starting spot next time through.

I'd take that bet.  I could see Sanchez being bumped to the bullpen, but not for Hendriks.  Perhaps for Copeland or Wolf or Jenkins, but not Hendriks.  Hendriks has been tried repeatedly as a starter and failed.  His only improvement this year came because of his shorter stints in the bullpen, allowing his velocity to bump up.  I don't see how that would translate into much success as a starter.  And he's not stretched out either.

Well, yes, but the info they have from the previous years is no playoffs and a winning record that does not improve year over year.

But that's not the only info they have. If we were judging Anthopoulos, we wouldn't judge him in such a simplistic way. My comment about randomness applies to past seasons as much as this one. It's process more than results that you have to judge him on. For that there's enough information, and we don't need the rest of this season to judge him. Freak injuries to Bautista and Donaldson that doom the team's chances wouldn't be a reflection on Anthopoulos's ability. Heck, we've already had that with the Stroman injury. That might've been 5 WAR down the drain right there, but it's nothing to do with the GM.

I'm at the airport in TO on my way back to Edmonton from the USA. Cito and his wife just flew in, they're clearing customs

I look at Hendriks' success in the bullpen thus far (going by FIP if not ERA) and I am reminded of Wade Davis. Davis was an unimpressive starter with a low K rate and of course we all know the monster reliever he has become.

I'm not saying Hendriks will become Wade Davis, but perhaps there is potential for a Wade Davis Lite?

There are high leverage RH relief innings to be pitched with a paucity of arms to pitch them. Hendriks has shown a velocity I had not anticipated and could start insinuating himself into higher leverage use. I'd like to see that explored long before a return to the rotation.

stroman injury was such a disaster. i'm still in shock from it.

so are the rest of the SP, apparently.

sanchez and norris both likely should have been starting in aaa this year, with stroman the ace, hutch/Buehrle/dickey giving us decent mid rotation performance, and an assortment of vets led by estrada vying for the last spot, with the kids jockeying to be called up midseason.

best laid plans something something...

for the record i'm not saying i WANT hendriks in there or think he has a good chance at being effective there longterm...but i do think he's likely next on the list after estrada. he has solid stuff, very good command, and was a dominant SP in aaa last year at 25yrs old. it wouldn't be shocking to see him have some short term success as an sp at least. and it definitely wouldn't be shocking to see him do better than what our sp have done so far this year.

in general i don't see hendriks as a longterm solution in the rotation at all, but definitely see him capable of successfully transitioning to the bullpen even in an important role like so many have done before him - e.g. janssen, cecil, davis, betances, etc etc etc.

It's easy to see why Hendriks has been much more effective in the pen.  He's throwing 94-95 with good control of his fastball and a nice sharp slider that he occasionally uses to backdoor a left-hand hitter.   He was throwing 90-91 out of the rotation without a lot of downward movement (but good control) and tame off-speed stuff.  He's good to go once through the order if necessary. 

It's process more than results that you have to judge him on.

Can't disagree more. You don't keep players who don't show results. Why would it be any different for management? Are you saying AA has not been in place long enough to produce results?

a DFA for wilkins makes sense with Colabello slugging his way into 1st in line at 1b and Fox slugging away in AA.  (BTW, where's derick barton?)

But I'm surprised by Matt West instead of say, Jayson Aquino or Matt Hague - who's safe as the backup 3b I guess?

But concern around potentially losing West - 17ks in 12 IP with 0 ER in AA as a converted position player - is mitigated by how many interesting candidates for the pen remain in AAA and AA. 

The AAA pen pitched 71 2/3 innings in april (including one Rasmussen bullpen start), allowing 48 hits, 16 bbs, 2 hrs and 12 ERs for an era of 1.51, and this without John Stilson, who should be back in a few weeks.  61 Ks is the only concern.  Delabar, Rasmussen and Guilmet all pitching well enough to get recalled. 

AA relievers pitched 73 innings, allowing 68 hits, 25 BBs, and 1 HR.  82 Ks, 15 ERs and a 1.85 era.  Danny Barnes is knocking on the AAA door now that he is fully recovered from injury. 

It aint the schmaltz, it's the results
/mendelsonjoe

The Blue Jays have been pretty bad over a period of years at run prevention.  The way I see it, run prevention has three elements to it- defence, pitching talent and pitcher usage and development.  There have been different issues in different years.  The one constant has been (in my view) below average performance in the third aspect.  The manager and the pitching coach are a team on the third aspect, and Anthopoulos has cast his lot in with Gibbons/Walker.  He may end up regretting that decision. 

Anyways, I'd guess that Copeland gets the ball in Norris' place. He is a sinkerballer and with Goins in for Reyes, the Jays do have a pretty good groundball defence.

You don't keep players who don't show results.

The analogy for players would be something like BABIP. You wouldn't make any decision these days on a player's value (whether to re-sign him, for instance) by looking at his BA and saying, like some grizzled manager from 1954, "Yep, that's all that matters, I don't want to hear any more. Results, baby."

Are you saying AA has not been in place long enough to produce results?

Well, I'm saying is it's perfectly possible for a good GM to not make the playoffs over the course of five years, so just telling me that isn't enough. I'd also add that if we focus solely on that point, we're ignoring the state of the farm system entirely, which would be a pretty silly thing to do in judging a GM. In any case, if you think he should be fired, I'd be more interested in hearing what you think he's done wrong than in hearing, "No playoffs, therefore no good, end of story." And this decision also can't take place in a vacuum -- any decision on Anthopoulos needs to factor in the alternative. (God help us there; I can see Rogers really botching that one.)

That was a beautiful at-bat from Travis to eventually draw the walk.  I think he's set the tone.

Making the playoffs isn't the best metric - you could have a consistently excellent team that doesn't make the playoffs because someone else is just a bit better. But topping out at 85 wins doesn't even get you close to the playoffs. And ultimately, the purpose of a farm system is to produce players - either directly or via trade - who can win games. So having a great farm system is kind of irrelevant if it doesn't translate into great, or even good, teams.

Of course, the part of AA's job that none of us can evaluate properly is the question of what resources he has been given, vs what resources he has been promised. The team had been unable to add key pieces over the past two years; if Rogers had said "we'll give you some money to fill in a few holes", but then went back on it, that's not entirely AA's fault.

Corey Kluber is crazy good. And the Jays took it to him. Whether they win or lose, you've gotta be encouraged by how this team grinds out at-bats.

And hey, this Sanchez kid looks alright. Dare to dream...

AA has been the GM for 5 years. 2010-2014. I would be very interested in what Bauxites thought his goal for each year was.

My answer: In 2010 & 2011 his goal was Asset Acquisition.

2010 He insisted on D Eveland for the rotation and Merkin Valdez & J Accardo for the pen. Cito did not want them. The rotation was very young and inexperienced Cecil & Morrow.

2011 Traded Marcum for Lawrei which was to improve the team for the future. A good trade IMO. How about JoJo for the rotation, more Asset Acquisition.

2012 I think he was trying to build a good team. He had Lawrie, Rasmus, Snider & Escobar. EE & Bautista too. The rotation failed him. Morrow was very good but only made 21 starts. H Alvarez was a pretty promising young pitcher that got a lot better. Romero started his decline. Cecil was no longer an effective starter. Hutch & Drabek got injured. Injuries and a lot of poor performances. So IMO this is AA's 1st year when he expected and hoped for improvement. It did not happen 73 wins.

2013 & 2014. AA is trying to contend. Two big trades Miami and NY Mets. 74 wins in 2013 and 83 wins in 2014. Injuries and other reasons I suppose caused the team to under perform. Payroll increased significantly. So AA finally put a strong team on the field. IMO he is trying to contend finally, IMO.

AA drafted high talent and also Intl FAs were high talent. The system is producing now. Young players were acquired and it takes a while for them to develop.

What about 2015? Can this team win 88 games? That gets you into a Sept playoff possibility. Our Battersbox round table says 84 wins I think. We have a lot of talented youth on the opening day roster. Quite a few guys are close in AA. And AAA has a lot of players with ML experience that provide depth.

Is AA's job in the line? I do not think so. But I do not know.
If it is then he definitely played his first 5 years badly. Year 1 & 2 not trying to win. Year 3 building a team with a lot of pieces in place. Year 4 & 5 going for it and falling short by a wide margin.

IMO 86 wins from a young team should satisfy just about everyone. The fans a bit. Ownership for sure because it is decent and the 2016 & 2017 payrolls will go down a fair bit. The 2016 & onward teams should cost less and still be able to produce 85-92 wins. Which would be ideal.

i've been hard on Sanchez but i'll give him a pass for that last inning this time. he looked sharp today and actually made ne feel confident in him for the first time as a starter. we needed that.

now Hutch really has to step up tommorrow, get us the series win, and get us back to .500 in time for this last AL East stretch for a while.

I've been defending Sanchez against his critics for what seems like forever, but there is no question that his control/command issues are concerning (20:21 BB:K so far). If he can make some improvements around the margins this year, maybe he can put together a 2015 season that isn't too dissimilar from AJ Burnett's 2001 (age 24) season (in which AJ threw 173.1 IP, posting a 4.31 BB and 6.65 K per 9 IP, 4.63 FIP, 1.6 fWAR).

That would help the team's playoff chances, especially with the Jays' productive offense.

Sanchez seems to be going for a record but not one we wanted to see - the single season walk record.  Nolan Ryan holds it with 204 in 1977, he also had 202 at age 27 in 1974.  Of course both years he had over 300 K's also and 299+ IP.
Sanchez now has 20 walks in 5 starts so he is far off the pace. Over 33 starts that would work out to 132 walks still high but not Ryan high.  But it would be a Jays record currently held by Jim Clancy in 1980 with 128.  Only 5 Jays have 100+ walks in a season  One recently released, two have WS rings as a Jay, and the other was part of a bad trade.  Can anyone guess?

I'm not one to bash Gibby, and generally find him very competent. But why the hell would be have Aaron Loup even warming up in this game? The man does not have infinity innings in his arm. He's on pace for 71 games again, and I'd prefer that they not be wasted ones like this.

Even though he was just warming up, the phsyiological reality of that action is very simple: rather than the tissues in his arm having an additional 24 hours of rest and repair, he stresses and tears those tissues for absolutely no reason.

Obviously this is just my personal belief and I'm not a ballplayer, so maybe there is a good reason for it. But to me, let the man rest, we're going to need him.

More importantly though, I love our offense. So much depth and talent, most fun to watch in years. Now, if only they could get a lick of pitching. Good start by Sanchez today though!

Only 5 Jays have 100+ walks in a season One recently released, two have WS rings as a Jay, and the other was part of a bad trade. Can anyone guess?

First thought was Woody Williams, but he topped out at 81 walks in 32 starts in his final year as a Jay in 1998.

Second thought was Joey Hamilton. He actually walked 106 batters in 34 starts for the Padres in 1998 before getting traded to the Jays that offseason. He couldn't stay healthy enough as a Jay though to walk 100 guys

My third guess was correct. I'll leave it for others. I'd just note that this pitcher was actually a bad free agent signing, not a trade, unless the bad trade didn't involve the Jays

I think Stieb had a 100-walk season.

Just checked...he maxed out at 96.

Juan Guzman (my next guess) had a 110-walk season.

"So having a great farm system is kind of irrelevant if it doesn't translate into great, or even good, teams."

In AA's case, the players from his first draft (Aaron Sanchez, par exemple) are just now starting to work their way onto the major league team. So you can't say his draft record, etc. should already be reflected in the major league record. It has to be judged for what it can be expected to contribute in the coming years. And on this score, Anthopoulos has a strong record, taking one of the worst minor league systems in baseball to the #10 system currently, as ranked by Baseball America.

"Even over twenty - make that twenty-two - years?"

In the abstract, yes, though unlikely. In the case of the Blue Jays, Gord Ash was terrible, thus freeing us from any concerns of what it's like to have a good GM for 20 years.

taking one of the worst minor league systems in baseball to the #10 system currently, as ranked by Baseball America.

I think you're missing what happened recently with the draft rules. Toronto was a team that wouldn't draft the top free agents because they wouldn't go over slot and sign them. That's why many of the Jays first round picks where duds. With the hard slots, those days are over. AA has it very easy compared to previous GMs. Easier drafts, bigger payroll. He's made some good moves, but he's also made some bad ones.  And with the weaker dollar, the payroll has probably hit a ceiling.

The new president might be happy with that, but I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't.

Hopeless teams like KC and Baltimore have leapfrogged the Jays during AA's tenure.

I think Anthopoulos is learning. Last off-season (Travis, Donaldson, Martin) appears to have been an excellent one for the Jays' GM. The Stroman injury (and, to a lesser extent, the Saunders injury) was a major blow that could not have been foreseen. It does seem as if Rogers has imposed significant spending restraints on the front office. The team might make the playoffs this year anyway, and they should have a chance to compete in 2016.

Losing your best starting pitcher for the season is tough luck, but it can be foreseen that one or two starting pitchers will miss significant time due to injury.  It was well known prior to the Stroman injury that the club was shallow in the rotation. 

When it comes to age this team is younger than most notice...
Hitters: 25 and under (pre-prime) =Pompey, Travis; 25-29 (prime): Pillar, Goins, Carrera, Thole, Saunders, Smoak, Donaldson; 30-32 (late prime): Diaz, Valencia, Tolleson, Navarro, Encarnacion, Reyes, Martin; 33+(Decline years0: Bautista
Pitchers 25 and under(pre-prime)=Osuna, Castro, Norris, Sanchez, Hutchison;25-29 (prime): Hendriks, Copeland, Loup, Cecil, Albers; 30-32 (late prime):Hynes, Redmond, Estrada, 33+(Delcine years): Francis, Buehrle, Dickey

A bit surprised how few were in the 33+ area, Bautista, Buehrle, Dickey, and Francis are it.  Buehrle is done after 2015, Dickey around for one more year, Bautsita signed for 2016 and I'm sure the Jays will try to get an extension for him.

So this team still has time.  Assuming someone steps up for Buehrle's role next year.  Forget sometimes that Hutch is still sub 25 and thus still learning.  We need at least 2 kid pitchers (including Hutch there) to become stable 200+ inning guys ala Buehrle.  Tons coming through the system plus Norris, Sanchez, Hutch so odds are decent we'll see 2 stick.  Ideally 3 do by 2017 but we need 2 for 2016 (at least).

1. Stroman
2. Hutchison
3. Dickey
4. Buehrle
5. Norris
6. Sanchez
7. Estrada

That's not particularly shallow.

Stroman, Norris and Sanchez didn't have 25 starts between them.
Hutch finished last year with an ERA+ of 87.
Same for Estrada (87)  who gave up 29 HR in 18 starts for the Brewers.

Buerhrle and Dickey are not Halladay.

Jake Marisnick, among other things, leads the league in stolen bases with 9 (and has been caught once).  When you trade a bunch of prospects, one or two will probably end up very well. 

"BTW the Jays since 1993 have not been anywhere close to a 90 win team in true talent"

2006 Pythagorean W-L: 86-76
2007 Pythagorean W-L: 87-75
2008 Pythagorean W-L: 93-69

I don't really know what people mean by true talent (it seems to assume there's some abstract truth out there). Those 2007-2008 teams seem somewhere close to whatever it is you mean.

No one is going to argue that the results haven't been there for the Jays since 1993, but to deny that there have been good team, that just doesn't even pass the smell test.

I agree with Greenfrog that whatever mistakes he may have made, AA is learning.

I'd be very hesitant to fire a guy who has been able to put together an excellent system and has the ability and foresight to make that Donalson trade...and has managed to put together the best offensive core in baseball at a bargain price, with great defense to boot.

I think we have the best group of position players in baseball, bar none, and i'm pretty sure hutch/dickey/buehrle should bounce back close enough to normal again for us to enjoy it.

and AA knows full well that he needs to add top-end pitching to this team. we'll see if he can do it.

It's too bad that AA lacked the resources to add someone like Shields, who might have signed for about 4/80 (a free agent I wanted the Jays to go after when his price came way down).

Shields (0.6 fWAR, 3.24 FIP and 31 IP after five starts) is doing far better to date in 2015 than any of the Jays starters.

I love shields. wanted him bad.

but i think it was more than money that factored into his decision. not sure we had a chance other than a big overpay.

Thus why the Jays have been chasing pitching, pitching, pitching in the draft.  AA can get hitters/fielders in trades (Lawrie then Donaldson as an example) but pitchers are harder to get (see past 2 offseasons and cost to get Dickey & Buehrle).  In the minors we have tons of young arms working their way up plus a few up here.
Under age 25 with ML time: Sanchez, Norris, Hutchison, Castro, Osuna
Under 24 in AAA: none (Norris there now)
Under 23 in AA: none
Under 22 in A+: Labourt, Jairo,Tirado, Alberto
Under 21 in A: Greene, Conner
Under 20 below A: unknown as season hasn't started
Mix in recent draft picks (first 3 rounds) 2014: Jeff Hoffman, Sean Reid-Foley, Nick Wells; 2013: Clinton Hollon, Patrick Murphy who it is too soon to know much about and we can see potential all over without even getting into international free agents who are in low A and lower and the like.  As Norris showed last year and Castro/Osuna this year a guy can climb very fast in the Jays system now.  Which probably explains the lack in AA/AAA of kids (just Norris) while we have 4 in the majors now.

All in a day's work for Non-Prospect.

when are we allowed to kick our reserved adult take on travis to the curb and let our excited little kid take out to play?

John, you hit on why i can't justify firing AA even if this current core never wins. In addition to building a core of affordable legit stars, our kiddie core looks pretty exciting to me:

SP Stroman 24
SP Hutch 24
SP Norris 22
SP Sanchez 22
SP Hoffman 22
SP Osuna 20
SP Castro 20

RP Stilson 24
RP Boyd 24
RP Smoral 21
RP Reid-Foley 19
RP Perdomo 21
RP Borucki 21
RP Tirado 20
RP Labourt 21
RP Dawson 21
RP Hollon 21



CF Pompey 22
2B Travis 24
1B Guerrero* 17
DH Tellez 20
RF Alford 20
LF Smith 22
C Pentacost 22
SS Urena 19
3B Nay 21

OF Davis 21
IF Lugo 20
C Jansen 20


I don't really care what the internet prospect guys say, because everything i know about prospects tells me that is a crapload of young talent. and yes, "crapload" is the technical definition.

This pitching is really bad guys.

i just don't get how the SP can be this bad. it's crazy.

You know it's bad when Hutch gets a 6-1 lead and can't get through 5.

maybe Navarro is a better receiver than he gets credit for.

Does Pete Walker bear any responsibility for the collective meltdown of the pitching staff?

Dickey: 5gs, 6.2ip/gs, 5.23era, 5.50fip, 4.96xfip, 4.86siera
Buehrle: 5gs, 5.6ip/gs, 6.75era, 5.89fip, 4.64xfip, 5.05siera
Hutch: 6gs, 5.2ip/gs, 7.47era, 5.18fip, 4.70xfip, 4.54siera
Sanchez: 5gs, 5.1ip/gs, 4.62era, 5.90fip, 4.65xfip, 5.20siera
Norris: 5gs, 4.7ip/gs, 3.86era, 5.07fip, 5.36xfip, 5.04siera

Never seen anything this uniformly horrible before.

Jeff Francis pitched long relief today, except it was all in the same inning. Should be the third Canadian off the major league roster in a week.

I know Jeff is left-handed and Brantley hits left, but other than that it would be difficult to find many pitchers less appropriate to use in what was shaping up as a game situation And I didn't get why if Gibbons was planning on bringing in Castro to face Hayes if Rayburn reached, that he just didn't bring in Castro in the first place to face Rayburn. It wasn't like Francis could get anyone out.

These beer league scores are not enjoyable. Not to me, anyway.

Jays first in the MLB in runs scored, third worst in runs prevented. Before today's 8-6 game, which is only in the 6th inning.

What do you do? Wait it out?

It's too bad that AA lacked the resources to add someone like Shields

Like, if he could have just moved the Blue Jays to San Diego where Shields and his family live.

Jeff Francis pitched long relief today, except it was all in the same inning. Should be the third Canadian off the major league roster in a week.

With very fringey stuff, he figured to be on borrowed time from the moment he arrived. There should never be a reason to use him in a "real" situation, unless you are entirely out of options. Which Gibbons wasn't.

I think Loup could have survived the indignity of being used in a high leverage, albeit early game, quagmire.

Second guessing is certainly easy when things go badly, but boy oh boy, Gibbons has been in a slump.

a guy who has been able to put together an excellent system and has the ability and foresight to make that Donalson trade

His trading record has certainly had its moments - the deals for Wells, Lawrie, and Rasmus also come to mind. Unfortunately, he also seems far too capable of ignoring or overlooking serious problems that were Blindingly Obvious to everyone before the games even started (hey, if I saw them, they had to be easy to see.) Stuff like the 2012 rotation, the 2013 defense, the 2015 bullpen. It's like having Jose Bautista and Ryan Goins in the same batting order. The good on the one hand is neutralized by the bad on the other. And .500 generally doesn't get it done in professional sports. You're just treading water. Alas, that's what they're probably going to end up writing on the tombstone of his tenure as Jays GM.

Pete Walker doesn't have enough hours in a day to work on all the issues.

Jays first in the MLB in runs scored, third worst in runs prevented.

Update: at 138, they have yielded the most runs of any team in baseball. Their per-game rate, should they allow no more this afternoon, is just a tick ahead of Colorado's who, of course, play at altitude.

Somewhere, on a couch far away, Tanyon Sturtze brushes the cheesies off his beer belly and reaches for his glove.

"Unfortunately, he also seems far too capable of ignoring or overlooking serious problems that were Blindingly Obvious to everyone before the games even started..."

In listening to interviews, I don't get the sense that he ignored any of the problems (or at least not the bullpen) but went with what was possible, but not entirely desirable. He rolled the dice putting in two very young pitchers in high-leverage situations, I take this as evidence that he recognized the 2015 pen as a weakness and was willing to take a low-percentage shot in the hopes that it might work out.

More generally -- it would have been really great to see the Jays sign Shields and Miller (heck, bringing Morrow back would seem nice)... but we've heard the same song of "pay-roll parameters" for years and I don't see why we have any reason not to believe it, especially with the change in the CDN$. Were there really a whole lot of realistic ways he could have addressed the bullpen last December?

Like, if he could have just moved the Blue Jays to San Diego where Shields and his family live

Gosh, San Diego should have limited their offer to 1/10 or so, since it was obvious that money would play no role in Shields's decision whatsoever.

Road series split against a preseason favorite shouldn't feel like a loss, but it does.

The crazy thing is that the Jays' bats have terrorized the league so far. I know not all of today's games are finished, but the Jays now have 144 RS - the next closest teams in baseball are KC and Oakland, with 124 RS each. And yet the Jays are 12-14. Remarkable.

Pitching remains scary.

even crazier is that our defense has been great too.

even crazier is that our defense has been great too.

According to BBRef, the team's defensive efficiency is below average (.683 compared to .697). Houston is best (.740). Cleveland is worst (.633).

hmm.

well, we're tied for 3rd in mlb with +13drs and are 9th in mlb with +6.3uzr/150 and my homer eye says this team is playing the best defense any jays team has played in a long while.

If you are having an honest discussion about AA, it's imperative to mention he traded away Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony DeSclafani, and Jake Marisnick for the privilege of taking on Jose Reyes' terrible contract, Buerhle's bloated salary, and Josh Johnson, who sucked. He also handed Yan Gomes away on a silver platter. Without those moves the team would have been in great shape this offseason to augment a very talented roster with money.

AA was humming along nicely, building a foundation, but he went all in WAY too quickly.

John Gibbons is being blamed for who he brings in to the 5th inning of a tie game when his SP blows a 5 run lead and he has the one of most overworked bullpens in baseball? Come on. You can't have your manager micromanaging like that on May 3rd, and it's nice to see that Gibbons realizes what so many don't - he can't solely use Loup/Osuna/Cecil in games that are tight all season.

"His trading record has certainly had its moments - the deals for Wells, Lawrie, and Rasmus also come to mind. Unfortunately, he also seems far too capable of ignoring or overlooking serious problems that were Blindingly Obvious to everyone before the games even started (hey, if I saw them, they had to be easy to see.) Stuff like the 2012 rotation, the 2013 defense, the 2015 bullpen."

This is exactly right. AA hasn't done a bad job, or a particularly good one. Average at best. After Ash and JP, though, he looks like a star, but that's a low threshold.

I am puzzled by how surprised fans are about our pitching. Beurhle had a mediocre second halflast year, Hutch has to date, always been inconsistent, the other two SP are kids, plus the bullpen wasn't shored up in the offseason - too many retreads, and inexperienced kids put in high pressure situations after 2 or 3 games in the majors. I didn't think the pitching would be quite this bad, but not far off.

Blaming Rogers is the popular cop out, as there is enough money there to make this team a contender. Certainly a number of teams have done more with less. E.g. AA could have shored up the pitching somewhat by salary dumping Navarro and Lind and going after the Millers of the world rather than "assets" in the form of reclamation projects.

I always looked to next year as being our big contention year. AA did a good job of shoring up 2B, catcher and the outfield, Stroman will be back, the kids will have experience, and he'll have money to spend with Beurhle and Romero gone. To me this year is all about finding the best learning experiences for Sanchez, Norris, Castro et al. May be we'll get lucky and they'll blossom this year, but a .500 season or slightly below is far more likely

I am puzzled by how surprised fans are about our pitching.

Nobody expected this staff to be good. But right now this is a whole other level of magnitude. Even if they were just sort of run of the mill bad, this team's offense would be enough to keep them over .500.

92-93, I agree that in retrospect, AA went all in too early.  I defended that Miami deal at the time, but Marsinick and Alvarez look great right now, and Buehrle and Reyes look pretty darn mediocre - for their salaries - on our end.  The Dickey deal was also clearly a failed roll of the dice.  

but can we officially drop Yan Gomes please?  He was nobody.  Nobody saw his breakout coming.  I sincerely believe i was his largest fan on this site, and that's only because I have a fetish for guys who can play multiple positions.  It pains me as well to see him perform so well when we threw him in for Esmil Rogers.  It also pains me to see Esmil Rogers pitch well for the yanks, and Jeffress and Lind do well in Milwaukee, and Desclafani in Cinci, and yada yada yada...

We shouldn't "drop" that AA traded away Yan Gomes for nothing and then gave Russell Martin a massive, backloaded contract if we are sitting here cheerleading the Travis acquisition based on one month of spectacular performance.

Doesn't hurt that Martin's probably been the best catcher in baseball this year.

92-93, criticize the moves separately please.  I like the Martin deal, feel that Travis was a great pickup (and win-win for both teams) who will doubtless cool down, and neither of those opinions have anything to do with the Yan Gomes deal. 

did you see the Rogers-Aviles deal as a problem at the time?  (Please note, Gomes was a throw-in). or do you agree that Cleveland just got stupid lucky?  (false dichotomy, I know). 

"If you are having an honest discussion about AA, it's imperative to mention he traded away Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony DeSclafani, and Jake Marisnick for the privilege of taking on Jose Reyes' terrible contract, Buerhle's bloated salary, and Josh Johnson, who sucked"

Since Trade:

J.Reyes: 242gms, 5.8war
M.Buehrle: 433.2ip, 5.2war

H.Alvarez: 301.2ip, 4.1war
Y.Escobar: 311gms, 3.9war
J.Marisnick: 126gms, 2.1war
A.Desclafani: 64.0ip, 0.5war
J.Nicolino: ---
A.Hechavarria: 318gms, -0.9war

if that's one of the big strikes against him, that's not bad.

We got the two best players in the deal, after all.

Without Buehrle and Dickey, I would hate to see what 2013 & 2014 would have been like.

It's hard to tell sarcasm on the Internet uglyone so I apologize if you were being sarcastic but your chart tells the tale of a disastrous trade. For your two best players the jays have paid well over $70 million for the less than 2 WAR "win" - that's as disastrous as it gets. There's no way to look at that trade in a good light.

Also, don't forget that Reyes's WAR total in 2013 (and his performance in subsequent seasons, most likely) suffered significantly as a result of a fluke injury to his ankle that year. He was off to a terrific start in early going that year and was hitting brilliantly. My guess is that we would be very happy with Reyes's overall 2013-15 performance had that injury not happened.

"We got the two best players in the deal, after all."

No, we got the 2 players who performed the best after the first two years of the trade, and spent about 50x the amount for that production. Getting the "best" players in the deal would matter if the Jays won something in the first two years of the deal, but they did not.

Regarding the discussion about Keith Law's analysis on Travis some may be interested to see the short conversation I had with him via Twitter.

https://twitter.com/jaybeetwentyone/status/594999951597252610

Thanks for sharing that, JB21. Bad swing? I'll have to watch more closely next time but that strikes me as a really odd thing to say.

 did you see the Rogers-Aviles deal as a problem at the time?  (Please note, Gomes was a throw-in). or do you agree that Cleveland just got stupid lucky?  (false dichotomy, I know).

There were many people, Bauxites especially, who were sick of AA's obsession with acquiring relievers, and I expressed skepticism at the time about the deal if it was related to saving some shekels, which was Davidi's speculation.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20121102152303850

And I'm not here to roast AA on trading away Yan Gomes, but it's important to recognize the negative results of some of his moves. It's fantastic having Martin play here for 7m this year, but when he's in his mid to late 30s making 20m a year he's going to be a buoy on the payroll. I do like that there's only one year, 2017, where both he and Reyes are at their maximums; as long as Martin maintains everyday C status his contract will not be too onerous if it's the only overpayment.

FWIW, that summer I was in Las Vegas and had this to say about Gomes:

5. I really like Yan Gomes. He doesn't have any tools that jump off the chart other than maybe a strong throwing arm, but he appears to be a comfortable receiver and had good ABs all night. He's really put himself on the map over the last calendar year and will allow the Jays to go as slow as they want with d'Arnaud and to not hesitate about trading Arencibia because there's depth at the C position. Gomes' versatility should go a long way in helping him carve out an MLB career.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20120715160629864

Regarding Gomes/Travis...

So am I to understand that if you trade away a guy for nothing and he becomes an above average player then "nobody saw that coming". But if you acquire a guy like that then "it was a shrewd move".

I guarantee there are people in Cleveland and Detroit saying the same thing, only from the opposite perspective.

Take all the credit where it is to be had, but none of the blame. Easy game.

*** Also, don't forget that Reyes's WAR total in 2013 (and his performance in subsequent seasons, most likely) suffered significantly as a result of a fluke injury to his ankle that year. *** Every time you do something there is a greater or lesser chance of injury, mostly very tiny. So every injury is a fluke because the vast majority of the time you won't get hurt.

Robert Dudek, come on man.  false analogy.  Gose for Travis was, and is, considered a fair exchange of talent by most (all?) observers.

Gomes as a throw in in the Aviles / Rogers trades was considered exactly that - a throw in.  Cleveland caught lighting in a bottle.  it happens, but it is in no way comparable to Gose / Travis. 

Cleveland didn't catch lightning in a bottle.  They had a scout, Kevin Cash, who knew Gomes' game very well from his time in Toronto and had a more accurate assessment of what he could do (especially defensively than Toronto's scouts who obviously felt that Arencibia was a better defender).  Tampa has recognized Cash's acumen by making him their manager.

I liked Anthopoulos' moves this off-season, but will happily agree that his trading record is mixed. My major concern with his off-season was the decision to retain the Gibbons/Walker team to deal with the pitchers.  Nothing has happened to change that view. 

"No, we got the 2 players who performed the best after the first two years of the trade, and spent about 50x the amount for that production. Getting the "best" players in the deal would matter if the Jays won something in the first two years of the deal, but they did not. "

Sure you could argue that any youth for vets deal is a loser if the team never wins a world series, but then very few trades are ever winners.

As for the money, we've paid about $34m to our side in each of the first 2yrs, the side we gave up has cost about $8m in each of the first two. This year that jumps to about $40m on our side and $15m on the other. Basically $25m premium each year. Expensive upgrade to be sure but still an upgrade - our guys have been average to very good in each of the first two years, the guys we gave up have been below average players the first two years.

but we did get the two best players in the deal. none of the guys we gave up project to be as good as our guys this year, nor are they safely projectible even as regular starting mlbers going forward.

most of the guys we gave up have been bounced from multiple teams already, and the only 2 who have earned a regular spot (alvarez, hech) are not as good as buehrle and reyes.

you might be excited by marisnick's hot month but as of now its no different than Gose' hot month, which i know you don't believe in. Jake's been a .650ops in mlb after being a .750ops bat in both AAA and AA. Desclafani's .180obabip fuelled start has already faded the last couple times out.

it was not a great trade, thanks to Josh Johnson being 100% toast, but as far as bad moves go, its not awful.

AA could have shored up the pitching somewhat by salary dumping Navarro and Lind and going after the Millers of the world rather than "assets" in the form of reclamation projects.

I'm not sure who all "the Millers of the world" were, but Andrew Miller signed a long term deal with the New York Yankees. If you expected that he might start a new trend of players who turn down long term contracts with the Yankees to play in Canada instead, you're vulnerable to a life of disappointment.

Now I'm not saying that the relief pitching shouldn't have been 'shored up' as you suggest. It would certainly have been one thing to do. But another 'cop out' as you put it is the belief that Toronto has a free agent solution for all its problems, and I don't think the choice was between someone the Yankees coveted vs. reclamation projects. It likely would have instead meant trading value in prospects for value in relief pitching, and I suspect what was on offer in that regard was judged unappealing, particularly given that we are talking about relief pitching.

I also don't think the team thought the starting pitching would perform as badly as it has, and neither did anyone else that I recall. While there were strong doubts about Aaron Sanchez, and fewer about Daniel Norris, I don't remember anyone predicting that Drew Hutchison wouldn't be able to go 5 innings. In fact Sanchez has gone deep more frequently than Hutchison. And Buehrle's early season problems haven't helped either

Those situations have ended up spotlighting two of the three weakest parts of the team - the bullpen and the on field manager (the outfield is also a mess). It's not a situation that can be handled by rote as today showed. Putting in the 25th man on your roster in a game you were leading and that threatened to get away, was a recipe for disaster. The fact that he is left-handed and it was the 5th were, I suspect, the only or over-arching considerations. That's going to lead to a lot of losing baseball. Leaving Francis in to blow the game up against Rayburn when Gibbons was prepared to bring Castro in for the next batter, was criticized by the announcers as the key (bad) decision of the game.

yan gomes is yet another glaring example of why i've pretty much learned to ignore the "scouting" (at least the internet-expert kind), and trust the numbers.

here's every level he got at least 50pa at:

Y.Gomes

A- (21): 137wrc+
A+ (22): 128wrc+
AA (23): 111wrc+
AAA (24): 140wrc+

and that's playing through an assortment of injuries.

guy could hit, even if he hadn't been a catcher.

Reyes's devastating ankle injury was different from the more typical hamstring injury that he has occasionally had to deal with in his career. In my view, his ankle injury likely accelerated his decline on both offense and defense and is making his contract look worse than it did in April 2013 (i.e., just prior to his injury), when he was a 29-year-old hitting 395/465/526 with 5 SB and 0 CS.

Reyes has been OK (not great) since the ankle injury. I think his game has lost some of its dynamism.

A- (21): 137wrc+
A+ (22): 128wrc+
AA (23): 111wrc+
AAA (24): 140wrc+

I've mentioned this before, but the Gomes trade may have been another case of the Jays getting victimized by Las Vegas, as no one really knew what to make of the stats there. In 2012, Gomes hit .328/.380/.557 in 334 PA at Las Vegas, and was never really considered a prospect. Perhaps the 13 HR should have been a clue.

Does Pete Walker bear any responsibility for the collective meltdown of the pitching staff?

I thought that the Jays should have let Walker go after last season and I was surprised when he came back. We don't have a lot of visibility into what a pitching coach does, all we can look at are results. What am I looking at when I wonder what Walker does?

Has any pitcher learned a new pitch from Walker?

Has any pitcher embraced a pitching philosophy to help him improve from Walker?

Has any pitcher taken an unexpected jump forward thanks to Walker?

Has Walker rescued any pitcher who seemed lost?

I just don't see any track record of success. Dickey and Buehrle don't really need a pitching coach. Stroman had to go to the minors to get "right". Walker couldn't fix Jeffress, Delabar, Santos, Romero or Drabek. Who has Walker helped?

I have met Pete Walker and he was very nice to me so I bear him no ill will, but he was promoted with very little minor league experience. I would prefer Dane Johnson as pitching coach over Walker.

Jenkins and Delabar up, Castro and Copeland down.

I'm not sure how effective Delabar's going to be, but it does make sense at this point to send Castro down. He's not helping the Jays and needs the chance to pitch and work things out.

I would send Castro to Dunedin or New Hampshire and have him start.

Both Jenkins and Delabar are on the 40 man roster so that's not an issue.

Thumbs up for the promotion of Jenkins and Delabar.

I agree with Gerry about Pete Walker. The only thing I'll add is that a pitching coach has to work well with a manager, in a way that no other coach does.  Gibbons obviously has confidence in Walker, and that is why it would have probably been best if Anthopoulos had made a decision about both of them prior to December 31.  Maybe he will now. 

I don't think Copeland was going to save the side, but I would rather Francis had been let go. I think we can safely assume that Gibbons preferred to keep another left-hander. The problem is, rather than being a 25th man used in games that one side or the other has definitively lost, I'm afraid he'll continued to be used as he was today.

i love the flexibility of our bullpen shuffle, but unless the SP stop sucking it won't work.

Somewhere, on a couch far away, Tanyon Sturtze brushes the cheesies off his beer belly and reaches for his glove.

I can't explain why, but this is the most funnily sad thing I've read in a very long time...

I think Magpie's Blindingly Obvious formulation is right, and there are other examples. Remember when AA opted for Literally Nobody as the team's third baseman, causing a peeved Bautista to hold it down in the early going?

We can debate how realistic any given acquisition might have been, but the fact of the matter is that there were a number of average or better starting pitchers available via trade or free agency, and the Jays chose none of the above; and a number of average or better relievers available via trade or free agency, and the Jays chose none of the above.

The state of the pitching dooms this team for this season, but sadly for fans, to the Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club, there are fates worse than losing. Like, presumably, not slashing $11 million in payroll.

aside from the bad decision to make a 20yr old the closer, the pen really hasn't been bad, just overworked.

AL Ranks

87.1ip (4th)
4.23era (13th)
4.02fip (8th)
3.80xfip (6th)
3.44siera (5th)

that era was actually 9th at 3.98 before today's outing.


and that might even be skewed due to heavy divisonal play. aside from the yanks our pen matches up well with any of the other al east pens so far.

and i think you'll find that few of those "available veteran arms" woukd be much of an upgrade.

the problem here is the starters. not one have them has pitched like a major league player this year. they literally don't deserve to be in mlb if they pitch like this.

AA has made some horrible trades (for instance Napoli for Francisco; Napoli has since put up OPS+ of 173, 113, 128, 123). However, I think he has a lot of positive credit for getting out from under the contracts of Wells and Rios. I mean this deal:

LA get Vernon Wells and his contract

Toronto get Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera

is just such a mind boggling deal that it is worth remembering.

I don't think AA has shown himself yet to be one of the top 3-5 GM. But I think he's well above average and has done nothing to suggest he should be fired.

Who knows what will happen with the rest of the season. We'd all love Hamels and Papelbon for nothing, but if AA fails to get that, it isn't a firable offense!

87.1ip (4th)
4.23era (13th)
4.02fip (8th)
3.80xfip (6th)
3.44siera (5th)

ERA is not a great way of measuring bullpen performance. Any club with a closer and a setup guy with ERAs below 3 have a better bullpen than the Jays.

The best pitcher in the pen is Estrada with an ERA of 0.84. He only pitches in low leverage situations.
The second best pitcher is Osuna with an ERA of 1.24. Maybe it's because Gibbons yanks him as soon as he et one runner on base. Scott Copeland just pitched 3 innings without letting a run in. That must be a huge positive for this pen because everybody else is worse that than 4.23 ERA average.

Now move Estrada to the rotation and recalculate the numbers above. The future doesn't look too bright.

Haven't heard much recently about the prowess of Russell Martin as a defensive catcher, pitcher framer par excellence and "2nd" pitching coach - I wonder if Dioner Navarro is having a chuckle to himself.

Despite a productive offense, the jays have gone through a plethora of hitting coaches, yet Pete Walker still has his job - Amazing!

In 1989, the Jays changed managers early enough to give the team a chance but waited too long in 2008 - let's see what happens this year.

Cleveland didn't catch lightning in a bottle.  They had a scout, Kevin Cash, who knew Gomes' game very well from his time in Toronto and had a more accurate assessment of what he could do (especially defensively than Toronto's scouts who obviously felt that Arencibia was a better defender).  Tampa has recognized Cash's acumen by making him their manager.

Mike Green, we can't know any of that.  Sure Cash's acumen has been acknowledged by his getting the coaching gig, just as Gibby's was when he got hired.  that doesn't make either of them wonderful scouts.  We also have no idea that Toronto felt JPA was a better defender than Gomes - all we can know is that they felt he was better positioned / more advanced enough to contribute at the big league level - i assume it was in part a pedigree thing (1st round pick vs. 10th, never a full-time player in the minors).  Maybe Cash knew Gomes was a diamond in the rough, and maybe Cleveland just got lucky. 

I think Tangledupinblue nailed part of the problem here:

I've mentioned this before, but the Gomes trade may have been another case of the Jays getting victimized by Las Vegas, as no one really knew what to make of the stats there. In 2012, Gomes hit .328/.380/.557 in 334 PA at Las Vegas, and was never really considered a prospect.

To be fair to AA, Boston has also had horrible performance from its rotation, and achieved it much more expensively.

Boston traded Webster, De La Rosa and a prospect for Miley; Cespedes, Wilson and a prospect for Porcello; and signed Masterson to a 1 x $9.5 deal. The Jays promoted two minimum salary rookies at basically no cost in terms of assets or money, other than of course the risks associated with rushing each of them into the rotation at 22.

From that perspective, ownership must be very happy with AA. I think that Buchholz/Kelly/Masterson/Miley/Porcello had a much, much better chance of succeeding than Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison/Sanchez/Norris as at the start of the season, and still has a much better chance of bouncing back and being a competent rotation. But I don't trust that ownership particularly cares about that side of the equation.

Of course the Jays 4 - Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchisons/Sanchez/Norris gets cheaper next year as Buehrle is a free agent and probably gone or retired.  Hutch/Sanchez/Norris will be cheap for quite a while plus other kids should be pushing on the ML door soon too.  Lets hope someone jumps through the system fast this year ala Norris last year to help fill that rotation.  Dickey is on an option year so the Jays could keep or dump him depending as well.

Toronto get Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera is just such a mind boggling deal that it is worth remembering.

Texas got Napoli for two years, then nothing. Toronto got a draft pick for Francisco which got them Dwight Smith Jr. We have Dwight Smith Jr. Texas has nothing. Worth remembering.

A major league general manager  in 2013 who does not have an idea how to adjust for a hitter-friendly environment (or a pitcher-friendly environment) ought not to have a job.  I have every confidence that that was not Anthopoulos' issue in evaluating Gomes. They just didn't think that he could catch, and were overly enthralled with Arencibia's potential. 

scottt - why do admit that ERA is a bad way to judge RP, and then go on to rank the RP by ERA?

if we look at imo the most predictive number - siera - then the RP look like this:

Hendriks 2.04
Cecil 2.79
Osuna 2.79
Loup 2.80

for me at least those are the two most reliable guys plus the two question marks with the most promise coming into the year for the back of the bullpen. Hendriks number here is probabiy boosted by throwing lower leverage inningsm

then the middle RP:

Francis 2.97
Hynes 3.26
Estrada 3.40
Castro 3.89

have been decent while

Redmond 6.29
Albers 6.30
Copeland 7.09

have been awful.

I'm a little annoyed that albers and copeland were ever called, really. they were not near the top of the list for potential callups imo. delabar and jenkins are better callups though rasmussen and maybe wolf might be even better.

"I think that Buchholz/Kelly/Masterson/Miley/Porcello had a much, much better chance of succeeding than Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison/Sanchez/Norris as at the start of the season"

Last year:

Stroman (23): 20gs, 3.29era, 2.79fip, 3.16xfip, 3.21siera
Porcello (25): 31gs, 3.42era, 3.65fip, 3.64xfip, 3.84siera

Hutchison (23): 32gs, 4.48era, 3.85fip, 3.82xfip, 3.59siera
Miley (27): 33gs, 4.34era, 3.98fip, 3.50xfip, 3.67siera

Buehrle (35): 32gs, 3.39era, 3.66fip, 4.09xfip, 4.32siera
Kelly (26): 17gs, 4.20era, 4.37fip, 4.19xfip, 4.29siera

Dickey (39): 34gs, 3.71era, 4.34fip, 4.14xfip, 4.08siera
Buchholz (29): 28gs, 5.34era, 4.01fip, 4.04xfip, 4.02siera

Estrada (30): 18gs, 4.96era, 5.73fip, 4.25xfip, 4.04siera
Masterson (29): 25gs, 6.03era, 4.50fip, 4.04xfip, 4.00siera


Norris (21): AAA - 3.18era, 2.21fip / AA - 4.54era, 4.03fip
Owens (21): AAA - 4.03era, 3.59fip / AA - 2.60era, 3.16fip

Sanchez (21): AAA - 4.19era, 4.87fip / AA - 3.82era, 4.16fip
Rodriguez (21): AAA - ------------------ / AA - 3.55era, 3.14fip

Texas got Napoli for two years, then nothing. Toronto got a draft pick for Francisco which got them Dwight Smith Jr. We have Dwight Smith Jr. Texas has nothing. Worth remembering.

They got Smoral with the pick, not Smith.

That's right... Dwight Smith Jr. was drafted the previous year (2011) as compensation for Miguel Olivo. Savvy move there by Anthopoulos.

Presumably the club will make a decision about Anthopoulos' future more towards the end of the season.  He definitely has his merits and demerits- it's really not interesting to attack or defend him.  What is more interesting (to me anyway) is how the club gets better at run prevention. 

Here's a batted ball chart for the Blue Jay starters (as compared with the rest of the other rotations in the league). They've given up 2 runs per 9 IP more than any other rotation in the league.  It's not entirely clear why things are as bad as they are.  They obviously have pitched poorly, but if you look at the numbers, you strain to see why it should be so bad.  The HR/FB rate of 15% isn't helping, and the lack of control certainly hurts, but it ought not to add up to numbers that bad.  The bullpen support has not been fabulous and that might have added on to the misery. 

It is still early in the season. Just like last year a mediocre team like SF can get the 2nd WC and win the WS. So there is hope for the Jays.

Travis & Pillar are doing well well so far, so we could have 2 major league players from our list of unknowns.

I like our depth. If Buehrle & Dickey can produce like they usually do...and they should if they stay health, then to have a strong/decent rotation like last year. However we need a comparable Stroman, Hutch & Happ result from the rest of the rotation. In this I have my doubts. Actually I think it is highly unlikely.

I am probably wrong, but I think Janssen's sickness killed last years pen. I still like Cecil & Loup for this years pen and I think that our long list of available bullpen arms should easily cover the rest of the pen. Someone will definitely step up, I believe, except for replacing a good Janssen.

I guess our defense is OK.

Our offense is probably feast or famine like last year. I think that this years offense is getting more BB's than last years offense. If so that might help the offense be more consistent.

I suspect the guy on the reallly hot seat isn't AA but Gibbons.  No playoffs and AA will be hitting his limit with his old buddy.  Gibbons strength was his bullpen management - getting a lot out of little.  But the pen hasn't been that good.  He had expensive talent (Janssen) last year and power armed kids this year the question is can he figure out how to get the most out of what he has?  IF not is there someone who could?  Sandy Alomar has been rumoured as a strong manager candidate for a long time now.  Given his brother is the only Jays HOF'er I wouldn't be shocked if there is a lot of lobbying for him in the front office.  No idea if he'd be good or not but if things don't improve Gibbons better watch out.

The blame has to be placed at AA's doorstep for this season's poor performance from the starting pitching and bullpen. He knew the pitching was the issue going into the off season and instead chose to spend money and assets on Martin and Donaldson. I like those pieces. But at the cost of not doing anything to address the glaring weaknesses of the team? No. This team is just not balanced and the front office hasn't done anything to address the issues.

I recall AA emphasizing that Gibbons was his guy, that he regretted not hiring him instead of Farrell. He's really connected himself to Gibbons, to the extent that I wonder if he can fire him without conceding failure as a GM. If you can't win with your players and your manager, do you deserve to keep your job?

Mind you, I think this is all a bit premature. Pete Walker will almost certainly get sacked first, and a new pitching coach probably buys Gibbons another couple months.

While I am not here to damn either Jenkins or Delabar, either of whom might be of use (at this point, it is difficult to conceive of pitchers who would do worse than the ones we've been using) but Scott Copeland threw strikes and got outs. He may not be pretty. He may not throw hard but throwing strikes and getting people out would be a huge improvement for this staff.

There's no reason to think that Copeland would have kept throwing 0s on the board. He can't strike anyone out and doesn't have particularly good control. Not a real recipe for success.

Given their results so far and previous history with the big league team Jenkins and Delabar deserved a call.

I like our chances of getting a decent year-long performance out of at least one of them. Now we just need to find a few more.

i'm going down with the bullpen ship - i love what AA did with the pen this year and i'm not surprised their underlying numbers are good. i think they'll be just fine....as long as they don't continue to get crushed by overwork.

the problem with the rotation was always at the top. i think AA knew that stroman wasn't enough and fully meant to add another top end guy when he could. and i think he still will.

unfortunately in the short terms hutch buehrle dickey can't even give the solid mid rotation innings they usually do, and that is killing us.

still, though, a betting man would probably say the SP can only improve, and its not like we're getting overwhelming overachievement from the rest of the roster.

There's little wrong with the bullpen construction - if it looks bad, it's because the rotation has been shit. Quite a few Bauxites were saying all winter this team doesn't need relievers, it needs starting pitching that will help bolster the bullpen at the same time. Nothing has happened to suggest that wasn't the correct viewpoint.

"i love the flexibility of our bullpen shuffle, but unless the SP stop sucking it won't work."

It's so nice to see the team taking advantage of options, instead of having to read long-winded defenses about how it makes more sense for them to carry 8 relievers. There is very little difference between your last 3 relievers and the 3 guys available in Buffalo, and if your bullpen is shot you just cycle through those guys to make sure there are fresh arms on a nightly basis.

yep. you've always been right on that point.

I recall AA emphasizing that Gibbons was his guy, that he regretted not hiring him instead of Farrell.

What exactly did you expect him to say? Did you think that he might say:

" We had a managerial opening and in a long search that lasted many months, we didn't give this guy 10 seconds thought. We didn't even extend him the courtesy of an interview. When KC fired him as their bench coach and he ended up in the minors, we didn't even consider him for first base coach. But then Farrell humiliated the organization, made us look like a backwater stepping stone to a major market job and in what was probably an unprecedented act, left in the middle of his contract to join a divisional rival. Worse, he took the coaches that he wanted making it absolutely clear that the leftovers we're stuck with were guys that no one else wanted. So now we're stuck looking in the minor league manager pool and we could try to put some PR shine on some guy the public has never heard of, or we could give them a minor league manager that they'd at least heard of before. Do I want Farrell and the coaching staff back. Hell yeah. But I don't have that choice. At least with this guy, i"m not going to have to worry about him getting poached and us looking like a feeder team again."

I don't.

They got Smoral with the pick, not Smith.

You're right of course. Thanks for the correction.

I don't want to beat this to death but Copeland was fooling people in Buffalo and he was not kicked around in Toronto. Maybe he would not have been successful if he had been given more opportunities, but why not find out? All the people who were going to write Pillar off because of his poor strike zone judgement! Give someone a chance. I think it is unfair to say that Copeland wouldn't be effective period. He was effective in both Buffalo and Toronto. And like Pillar, he fills a need. Why not give him a chance until there is actual evidence that he isn't successful?

I don't want to beat this to death but Copeland was fooling people in Buffalo

I calculate his BABIP at .210. That's luck, not skill.