Strange, Jays need to sweep the series to have a .500 Homestand. Now we find which week is the norm, 4 wins or two.

Travis Snider might want to forget this half-inning. 

Following along at work on Gameday and I sure hope Pitch-Fx is screwed up otherwise MarK Carlson should never be allowed to call a game behind the plate again after this performance.

So anything interesting happen this game?

Joey The Best.

This division is gonna be a bareknuckled brawl this year. i don't buy that this division is weak at all. they were the best division last year and it looks even better this year.

Pillar with another incredible diving catch. He's had a whole season of great catches already, and we're only 14 games in. Nice to see Pompey, Pillar and Goins combine for 7 hits at the bottom of the order. Reyes 0 for 4 hitting right handed exclusively. Hopefully, he can start hitting lefty soon.

reyes actually made some good contact i thought.

and hey, pompey up to a 104wrc+ now.

Pompey's numbers at this point are similar to what he ended up with last year.
Defensively he's credited with 0.3 war.  Pillar has 0.7 but is negative with the bat.

Offensively, OPS+ are 104 and 75.  I don't think Pillar will steal the CF job, but he's a decent 4th outfielder.

Smoak is ahead of Navarro with the bat at this point also. It's good to see Martin and Bats walking so much even though their hits are far between. Both have high strike out rates,   but extremely low BABIP.

Pompey has now had 101 career major league PAs.  He's hitting .231/.307/.429.  The walk rate is about what one would expect given his minor league career.  He has displayed more power than expected.  His K rate is a little lower than expected.  His BABIP is much lower than expected, despite his power, speed and LD rate (24%).  He does sting the ball and you have to like his chances of hitting .270 over a full season's worth of PAs.  He's still learning how to steal bases, but caution on the basepaths is not necessarily a bad thing. Terrific young player. 

Mark Buehrle hasn't been at his best, but by not issuing walks, holding runners and fielding his position extremely well, he keeps the runs allowed to tolerable levels.  Gentlemen, watch and learn...

Hmmm. And Buehrle traditionally has bad April as it takes him longer to get up to par. He gets another Start this month, Sunday in Tampa Bay. This could be interesting.

".....Smoak is ahead of Navarro with the bat at this point...."

Very difficult to draw any conclusions from Smoak's limited 21 ABs.  While his OBP is ahead of Navarro, he's done worse than Navarro on SLG and AVG.  Both of them have an OPS below .700, so it's really hard to say that either of them is ahead of the other.  And you can't even say that Smoak is ahead of Navarro "with the bat" since his sole advantage over Navarro is drawing a few more walks.

It's hard to know when the Offense has put it altogether again and is ready to start a run. Every time so far after an offensive outburst like Tuesday's Game it's followed by a drought. The Jays can't win the Division in April, but they can get buried very quickly. Right now they are tied for 2nd, just two games out. They are being given the Division thus far. It's possible with just small improvements in Games Played, the Jays could be in 1st, with a three game lead. So far no Team is playing well in this Division, so Toronto still has a chance to figure it out.

Did that 13-6 win make anyone feel any better about the Toronto bullpen?

No.

ogator, I cannot see the big picture. I have no idea what is going on. It seems hot & cold to me.

I want Hutch to start to dominate. I believe in him and hope that he can become more consistent.

Jays' bullpen ranks 5th AL in IP, 7th in ERA, and 6th in SIERA.

it has been a solid average to above 'pen so far even with the two "best" rp not super sharp (cecil/loup).

don't see any reason to fret over it too much.

After another barely passable start last night, though, the SP rank 12th in IP, 11th in ERA, and 14th in SIERA.

That's a reason to start sweating and fretting, imo.

Or to put it differently, the Jays rotation is 14th of 15 AL teams in walk rate and 15th of 15 AL teams in HR rate.  The bullpen is 10th and 12th in these categories, which is not great, but compensated for by the 3rd highest K rate in the league.  The home run rate is somewhat understandable.  The ball is flying- HR/FB is 14% for the pitchers.  The walk rate for the rotation is another story. 

I'm not too worried about the bullpen at the moment. I imagine the stats would look a lot better without Redmond (4.1 IP, 8 ER) and Hynes added in. Starting is a bit more of a concern, but mainly regarding the kids. Dickey and Buehrle look like they always do (though Dickey looks less in control - and also less hittable - than he did last year, which is interesting). Hutchison should find his form sooner rather than later. The question is whether or not Norris can overcome this dead arm thing (otherwise, I think he'll find at least passable success) and if Sanchez can find his control. I actually think we have decent rotation depth, though, with Wolf (hasn't looked that good, but at least he's a vet), Santana likely returning to the mound soon, Doubront (same), and others who could be stretched out (Estrada, Hendricks). Maybe none of those are exciting, but you can't expect too much for a #6.

".....I actually think we have decent rotation depth, though, with Wolf (hasn't looked that good, but at least he's a vet), Santana likely returning to the mound soon, Doubront (same), and others who could be stretched out (Estrada, Hendricks)....."

Scott Copeland might be ahead of all of those guys.   Chad Jenkins might also be worth a look as a starter if his conversion from the bullpen goes well in Buffalo.  His last start for Buffalo was promising.

Santana has been close to returning to the mound for most of the past 5 years. He's more of a miracle option than "depth."

I'm rooting for the guy, but I'll be surprised if he makes it through a minor league rehab stint, never mind becomes an effective MLB starter.

True re: Santana. I'm optimistic, but fair enough. Jenkins and Copeland (who I both forgot, as China pointed out) are two different options that don't seem half bad.

I'd be reluctant to categorize as depth anyone who hasn't been effective for several years, like Wolf and Santana.

It is not inconceivable that both Norris and Sanchez eventually pitch their way out of the rotation. And things would get awfully dicey thereafter. It would be 2013 all over again with everyone and their brother getting a chance to land a rotation spot. Remember Wang? Ortiz? The horror.

The offense (now ranked first) is going to have stay near the top of the league for this team to compete. And that's with Dickey/Buehrle/Hutchison providing 600 innings of league average starting.

It is also reasonably possible that one of Norris and Sanchez pitch at least decently in the starting role.  My money's on Norris, but youneverknow. 

It is tough to win without 1 starting pitcher who is considerably better than average nonetheless.  This team might be up to it.  Throw strikes, trust the defence and score 5 runs per game. 

Josh Thole is playing for Buffalo this afternoon, I guess Navarro is OK.

One advantage to having an elite offense and solid defense (assuming the team stays relatively healthy) is that the Jays won't necessarily need to acquire a #1/2 starting pitcher at the deadline. They can go after a #3 type - someone who can keep the team in games while the offense does its thing.

Of course, there is always the possibility that Stroman makes it back in time for October.

"....Remember Wang? Ortiz?..."

I think the Jays have better pitching depth now than they did in 2013. And I think AA has made a greater effort to stockpile the system with pitching depth. The current options, in Buffalo and in the Toronto bullpen, look stronger to me. But that's just a hunch.  It's hard to be sure.   Many of those guys could fall apart under the attack of a major-league lineup, just as Wang and Ortiz did in 2013.   

If the Jays need only a few spot starts, they've got Estrada, Francis, Jenkins, Copeland, Wolf, possibly Hendriks, possibly Albers, maybe even Osuna.  To me, it doesn't seem quite as bad as Wang and Ortiz, but I could be wrong.

I agree that we have good fill-in depth, but I'm still nervous if two of our young starters struggle ...

Prospect watchers, does Copeland have a chance as a depth arm? A 27 year old minor league free agent having only his second 'good' season in the high minors, he certainly finished strong last year and has indeed been a ground ball machine this season. Any chance he has turned a corner?

i think my depth chart is:

6. Estrada
7. Hendriks
8. pray for rain / gamble on boyd

Copeland is a sinkerballer. He has been pitching very well but he has just 12 K's in 20 innings, and a 2.6 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He is more likely to be Chad Jenkins than Marcus Stroman.

Having said that, all pitchers go through periods when they are sharp, and not so much. You hope to call up a guy when he is sharp and who can keep it that way.

I have been surprised at how poor Travis Snider has looked in the OF. I thought he was decent when he was with the Jays.

Er...pretty sure we just find out whether or not the Jays can win 4 games this week.  Trying to draw conclusions based on 13 games worth of data is of limited benefit.

Snider seems to have had particular problem both here and in Baltimore picking up the ball.  Which is a bit strange because his pitch recognition at the plate is better than ever.  I know that it's a different thing from the outfield perspective and that the reflexes involved in swinging aren't the same as route-taking.  He seems in particular to have trouble going back.  Maybe he ought to play deeper, and worry a lot less about runners going 1st to 3rd; it's a tough thing in Toronto with the new slow turf.

Whatever it is, he's hitting enough to be a DH but the Orioles need a right-fielder.  Perhaps they will put Lough and DeAza in there at some point and DH Snider against RHP. 

check that - i shouoe have osuna in the SP depth mix.

No Bautista in the lineup tonight, he has a strained shoulder according to Barry Davis.

Oh boy, Goins is the left fielder. At least Travis is back in the lineup. Saunders likely to join the team Friday in Tampa, apparently, so if Bautista's out a few games, at least the team will have a big league left fielder on Friday.

Oh boy, Goins is the left fielder.

During last night's telecast, Martinez and Tabler were suggesting that Pillar and Pompey were having a good night because they felt pressure on the heels of an announcement that Saunders' return was imminent, and that a player coming up meant a playing would be going down, and that these two were candidates.

Whether or not they entirely believed their little story as a plausible illustration of cause and effect, they seemed to be missing what I thought was an obvious point. The team does NOT have a 4th outfielder (who is not primarily an infielder). Yes, each of Pompey and Pillar may well lose playing time to Saunders, but neither would likely be heading to AAA, particularly when the guy coming up is not the picture of health.

I believe Tolleson will be the likely victim here (absent Reyes or Travis going on the DL). He has been rendered redundant (Davis at 2B vs LHP, Valencia serving as Donaldson's emergency backup at 3B, Goins' ability to play both SS and 2B).

As a provisional solution, Dave Cameron suggests putting Norris and Sanchez in the bullpen, and moving Estrada and Osuna into the rotation, the goal being to have strike-throwers in the rotation. It's not an ideal solution, given Estrada's HR tendencies and Osuna's inexperience and post-TJ status, but his point is well taken.

They need a fourth outfielder/1B man. I thought the whole point of having Buffalo just down the highway was that we would never see Ryan Goins in LF. I'll drive over there now and bring one back if they like. They don't even have to give me gas money.

Presumably, Tolleson or Goins is the odd man out once Saunders is activated on Friday. Couldn't they have made that move today, and called up an OF for today/tomorrow, then send that OF back on Friday when Saunders is activated, as long as it was somebody optionable.

Very difficult to draw any conclusions from Smoak's limited 21 ABs.

It's impossible to predict anything based on that, but it's possible to measure what he's done nonetheless.
So, at this point, he's ahead on OPS.

Not very smart of Bautista to be attempting super-human throws to 1B to try to nab Delmon Young on a surprise play when it's the 8th inning and the Jays are winning 13-4, especially when he knew he already had a sore shoulder.  He admitted it was purely his response to the emotions of his clash with the Orioles after the Garcia behind-the-head pitch.  He's supposed to rein in those emotions a little bit, rather than costing the team its best player for what could be several games or even more.  We all love Bautista's emotions when he's hitting revenge homers, but it's not so great when he's getting tossed out of games for arguing strikes, or when he's putting himself on the bench for several games with unnecessary shoulder injuries.

Bautista has struggled mightily against Jimenez over his career.  We'll see if he is back in the lineup on Thursday against Tillman, who he's hit pretty well.

"....Couldn't they have made that move today, and called up an OF for today/tomorrow, then send that OF back on Friday....."

That OF would have to be someone like Dickerson or Carrera (good defence, poor offence) or Gindl (hitting .158 for the Bisons so far).  I actually think Goins is a better hitter than any of those three at this point in his career, with his recent (apparent) improvements.  The only question is his defence.  In LF, for one game, he can probably handle it.  But of course there's a risk.

If Reyes is still potentially gimpy, then you'd want Goins available on the roster as a viable shortstop option. Tolleson certainly looks less necessary now that Travis has emerged as a solid RH hitter.

I wonder what will happen to Izturis when (if?) he's healthy. There's really no place for him - he's not likely to outhit Travis; heck, he may not even be able to outfield Travis at this point in his career, and he certainly doesn't have Goins' defensive value. But it also seems like it would be bad clubhouse mojo to release a veteran who just got healthy, even if he's not particularly good any more.

A conspiracy theorist might suggest that Bautista is getting a day of rest on a day when he might specifically be of a mind to punch someone in the face.

There are no other outfielders on the 40-man roster, so adding an OF from Buffalo would have also required a corresponding roster move with the risk of losing that asset (Wilkins, Hague, Guilmet, etc.)... maybe not a big deal, but not sure if it's worth it for 1 or at most 2 games of having Goins or Tolleson play LF.

Goins had a great spring and was a big contributor last night. He deserves the start tonight.

Did that 13-6 win make anyone feel any better about the Toronto bullpen?

There was room to allow 6 more runs.

If you have a good rotation, you really only care about the top 3 relievers. The others are there to throw innings, not win ballgames. That's why the Jays bullpen looks average. Hendriks might appear to balance Loup and Cecil but that doesn't make up for the game they lost. 

Loup will keep facing lefties and will hopefully find his groove. Cecil, however is not even in the closing committee anymore.

Drabek has cleared waiver and is at AAA while Redmond is still in limbo.

Goins had a great spring and was a big contributor last night. He deserves the start tonight.

Normally Tolleson would play LF. Goins is 1 for 2 against Jimenez.

I bet Tolleson is banged up also.

they're still dreaming that goins can be unsucky enough at the plate to keep on the roster. his 2 hit effort last night combined with his hot spring and aaa is giving him a bit of a chance here. tolleson and valencia can't hit rhp anyways.

with bautusta and Saunders both back in a day or two they're not gonna throw away a player just to add some AAA vet for a couple days.

"....I believe Tolleson will be the likely victim here...."

This is a good question:  who will be demoted when Saunders is activated?  (Assuming that Bautista avoids the DL and no other injuries crop up.)   If it's Tolleson, he would be almost certainly lost on waivers. Are the Jays willing to lose a useful utility player whose hitting has improved this year (based on spring and April numbers) and who remains a useful bat against LHP and a useful defensive player at several positions?  Or might they demote the player with options (Goins) even though he is a superior defensive player and maybe an adequate hitter finally?  Unfortunately I don't see any other choices besides those two.  There aren't any obvious relief pitchers who could be demoted, and the team definitely needs 7 relievers.   it won't be Pompey or Pillar, and it won't be Smoak, so I think it has to be Tolleson or Goins.  And if it's Tolleson, I don't see how he gets through waivers.

with bautusta(sic) and Saunders both back in a day or two they're not gonna throw away a player just to add some AAA vet for a couple days.

You mean Redmond?

Gotta be Goins.  I'd be floored if they just want to punt Tolleson now after the effort to ensure they didn't lose anyone out of ST.

travis has definitely made it harder to justify keeping tolleson.

i thought we needed tolly to platoon at 2B, but it doesn't look like we do.

i still might keep tolly ahead of goins (and izturis) but now its a tougher call at least.

to help me bite my lip on Sanchez i'm gonna mention that the yanks are destroying Price in the 1st. i'll say it again - yanks are underrated this year.

Did you notice what happened in the 4th inning? No more 96 mph fastballs from Sanchez. They were all 92-94. And voila - strikes.

Home plate don't move. And Babe Ruth is dead, kids.

I will lay off sanchez if he has a good 5th inning here after the boys tied it up.

That's more like it.

love seeing martin coaching him like that.

Devon Travis really shakes my already shaky faith in the online prospect "experts"...or at least in their truth telling in how much they watch these guys play.

because i have a hard time how anyone can see Travis perfect short stroke, and the easy power it generates, and not see him as a legit prospect.

castro should not be the "closer".


imo

but this is a game to be positive about - great bounceback against ubaldo, gutty win by sanchez, and travis/pompey/osuna continue being awesome.

now a bounceback game from hutch for the sweep and potential first place tie would be about perfect.

I was wondering why "Reyes to Travis to Smoak" sounded so good to me.  Then it hit me- it's the same cadence as Tinker to Evers to Chance. In any event, it's a nice way to end a ball game.

On the radio, Mike Wilner and Joe Siddall were saying that Sanchez had said that when he tried to take off velocity on his fastball in his last start, he lost movement.  I don't pretend to know what the best thing for him is.  I do know that I would have pulled him after the first walk in the sixth inning.  He got a little lucky that Adam Jones' rocket was right at Pompey. 

Wow, Sanchez was sure playing with fire - 7 walks in 5 1/3 IP plus 1 HR given up but somehow only 2 runs scored.  If in Feburary anyone told me the Jays pen would be counting on 2 20 year olds to be closer and a key setup guy I'd have said you were nuts but it seems to be working.

I think Sanchez will be just fine as a Starter this year. It's very hard to pitch scoreless innings when you don't have your best stuff. He's starting to learn how and that's encouraging.

On the other hand there's Drew Hutchison. I don't know what to expect from him, it's almost like he's forgotten how to pitch at times. Game one was good, so what happened?

Dalton Pompey is 4-5 career against Tillman with a homer, two triples and a double. 

Bautista's talk to the media yesterday sounded like something that he and Gibbons might have discussed.  If so, kudos to Gibbons.  There is a time to pump up the volume and a time to turn it down.  The aftermath of Tuesday's game was one of the latter occasions.  Gibbons has also done a nice job so far with the younger position players; he's got the right light touch on that one too.  It seems to me that he is committed to Sanchez and Norris; it's not what I would have done but (having committed to it out of spring training) there is a lot of merit in just letting them have a full shot in the rotation for an extended period.

There are quite a few positives for our individual position players. BB for Bautista & Martin. 4 Hr for Travis. Great OF defense.

Our young pitchers and we have many of them are looking good and bad. They are young and need the legitimate opportunity to develop/adjust to the Majors.

It's one thing for Travis to have hit four home runs -- it's another for him to be hitting monstrous shots to straight away centre field the way he did last night. 3 of his 4 homers have been over 400 feet. Last night's was 429. Shockingly easy power. It's not like he's swinging out of his socks.

That's what has surprised me most about Travis. Kind of smallish physically with a nice compact swing, but generating a lot of power.

Like I said before the season, you could see his power to RCF from minor league video.  You combine that with contact ability (that line drive to right on a 2 strike pitch away last night was a  food example) and you have yourself a hitter. 

I think scouts have become overly enamored about the importance of height.  Obviously, it does help to be taller than Stroman or Travis, but that doesn't mean that a player with their obvious talents, baseball IQ and performance markers ought to be treated as less likely to succeed once they have performed in the high minors.  Short players get fewer opportunities in general because of the bias against them (which begins at the latest on draft day); if they reach the high minors and perform well despite have fewer opportunities, it is, in my opinion, a sign of something.  Perhaps Anthopoulos feels the same way. 

When a pitcher throws 90+ MPH, solid contact is what is most important. Travis' 4 HR tells me that he is truly solidly hitting the ball.

The thing about Travis' power is that he can't miss a ball and hit a home run (unlike EE). He just doesn't miss the ball.

If he keeps this out, I might need to get a new Blue Jay jersey. DEVO!

ALso, Castro should close. The kid has the makeup and the nerves of steal. You can't teach that stuff.

Navarro's "cramp" is now a strain. He has gone on the DL and Thole is back in town.

On the bright side, Thole's presence will allow Martin to concentrate on the non-knuckleball pitchers, possibly allowing Martin to focus more on his hitting too.

As part of the same series of moves, Jimenez has been promoted to Buffalo.

Navarro's DL trip allows Gibbons to use the DH/1B slots to give periodically rest recovering players (Saunders and Bautista) while giving Encarnacion daily work and Smoak regular work.  Gibbons had been using the DH slot to give Navarro extra work to keep him fresh. The timing here is not bad at all.

It wouldn't surprise me if Martin catches one or two of Dickey's starts during Navarro's DL trip. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have only one day off in the next 5 weeks, so the club may want to give Martin more rest than usual during this stretch. 

I'm wondering if Travis will end up being a lot like Jeff Kent - another guy who wasn't thought much of until he emerged.  I could live with that at 2B for the next 6+ years.

Kevin Cash does something interesting.  Gibbons brought in Castro in the 7th a week ago in a similar situation.  Maybe the ace relievers of the future won't be tied to the 9th inning.  Good.

yeah first spring at bat i saw of travis he ripped a screamer to the wall in lcf effortlessly. he's got picture perfext stroke. ball leaps off his bat.

that being said, while we now know he can hit the fastball, letz wait to see how he deals with a steady barrage of junk on the outside edge, which i'm sure is coming soon. great prospects like betts and bogaerts have yet to show the ability to adjust to this pitchers' adjustment.

yes, and the pitchers adjustments will be coming real soon.

Uglyone, with Bautista injured, Dirks released and Goins in LF, are you still comfortable with the Jays depth?

Relying on all these rookies makes me nervous but they seem to be holding their own thus far.

I was wrong about the Jays needing veteran arms for the pen, and we seem to have plenty of minor league depth there as well. We clearly have depth at 1b and Catcher, and likely at 2b, but that's it to my mind.

I'm hoping your optimism can convince me yet again.

i can give you some optimism!

first off, let's take a moment to look in wonder at the jays and note that they're the top scoring team in baseball DESPITE getting near nothing from their star bats....

Donaldson 155wrc+
Bautista 110
Encarnacion 85
Martin 85
Reyes 78
Saunders ---

aside from donaldson they've been a disaster so far. and yet the jays have scored more than any other team. amazing.

this is thanks of course to our great depth performances:

Travis 214
Pompey 119
Smoak 117

Valencia 293
Tolleson 137
Pillar 68
Navarro 68

So that should be encouraging in itself - our depth so far has been awesome this year, and without it we might have been sunk already.


Secondly, while those numbers there are unsustainable, we still have good reason to expect solid performance from the bottom of the order. in fact more reason to than we already had, thanks to the rooks legitimizing themselves with every new game.

Career Numbers vRHP

7. 1B Smoak 1504pa, 99wrc+ / barton 1508pa, 93
8. 2b travis 41pa, 196wrc+ / izturis 2508pa, 92
9. cf pompey 75pa, 145wrc+ / Dickerson 705pa, 101

vLHP

7.1B Valencia 560pa, 141wrc+ / barton 578pa, 126 / Navarro 808pa, 107
8.2B Tolleson 215pa, 128wrc+ / Travis 12pa, 278 / Izturis 842pa, 87
9.CF Pillar 98pa, 93wrc+ / Dickerson 270pa, 75wrc+


Thirdly, i'll repeat what i said before the year - the bottom slots in the order suck for every team. AL averages last year:

7. 92wrc+
8. 93wrc+
9. 74wrc+


Fourthly, the Bisons are kicking butt. 1st in the IL. They might not be great prospects but in terms of filling in short term this year that hardly matters.

Fifthly, like every other team, we'll still be sunk if a bunch of our best players get injured. nobody has the depth to cover for that.





Nope, my worry is still entirely on the starting staff. Even with Stroman we should have been looking for another top of tthe rotation addition. without him the need is even more urgent.

Valencia in left-field tonight against Tillman.  I guess that the purpose is to give him some work.  Saunders will presumably be up tomorrow.

Valencia playing the outfield against a right-handed hitter is not exactly the sort of thing you'd hope to see from a contending team. At least if they were facing a lefty, you could count on some offence & hope no one hits the ball near him.

That's true, Ryan.  The club has chosen to keep Tolleson on the roster to protect him from waivers and so they haven't brought up an outfielder from Buffalo.  I guess Reyes' and Travis' injuries have focused the team's attentions on Plans B and C in the middle infield. 

Dustin McGowan started this afternoon. It didn't go well.

What's worse than the odd Goins or Valencia start in LF? Francoeur playing every day and batting cleanup.

Adam Lind homered today and is putting up nice numbers.

At this point in the season, I'd suggest one of Tolleson or Valencia are redundant. Both hit LHP pretty well and RHP quite poorly. Valencia hits a bit better, while Tolleson offers a bit more defense.

Either way, the team isn't exactly hurting for RH hitting. And 2nd base isn't the void some feared it might be, so having an army of spare part infielders is less important. Cutting one of them when Saunders comes back would balance the team a bit more, both offensively & defensively.

John Lott reports that Navarro has a hamstring tear as opposed to a mere strain. He'll probably be out for a while.

get this - the red sox think they're a contender and they're starting an infielder in both LF and CF EVERY DAY.

For what it's worth, I am satisfied with a depth chart in the middle infield of Reyes, Travis, Goins, Izturis, Kawasaki, Santiago.  I would have brought up an outfielder and exposed Tolleson to waivers some time ago. Valencia is a valuable LH corner IF backup. 

I am really anxious to see Michael Saunders & Justin Smoak get regular at-bats - I think the 2 LHH are crucial to offset this right-handed lineup & I'm more optimistic than most about their chances for success - I'm expecting both to hit 20 plus homers & have OPS north of .800 against RHP - plus I expect both to be better defensively than last year's occupants of those positions.

John Lott reports that Navarro has a hamstring tear as opposed to a mere strain. He'll probably be out for a while.

The absolute worse case scenario for Navarro, from the Jays' point of view, is cashing his 5M on the DL.

I see no problem with using Martin with Dickey if the opposing starter is a lefty and then use Thole when Martin needs rest.

Apparently they are going to use Thole to catch Dickey tomorrow, against a lefty pitching for Tampa.

Tough baserunning luck for Pillar there - if the ball doesn't hit the umpire, he's safe, and then of course Donaldson follows up with a HR.

Tough baserunning luck for Pillar

That's awfully charitable. From where I'm sitting, it was a totally boneheaded play. He had reached third base and there was one only out. He should only have tried to score if he was sure he could make it. There was no need to roll the dice and hope the ball would bounce this way or that way.

Yah, at first I thought it was really stupid, and then I saw the replay. The ball hit the umpire and stopped, or he's easily safe.

Hutch is feeling it.

Also, what a great acquisition Donaldson has been. Just an excellent all-around ballplayer.

Yep, I completely agree with dan gordon. Just really bad luck for Pillar on that one. Hopefully it doesn't matter.

Evidently Travis' arm is strong enough for all ordinary use by a second baseman.  Nice play, and a fine ending to the first good outing by a Jay starter.

Yes, and he hits the ball hard yet again for a double - too bad about the decision to try for 3rd with 2 outs. Travis is an extremely impressive player. He drives the ball hard all over the place, has more power than I expected and fields his position well. I know it's early, but I think this guy is going to have quite a career if he stays healthy.

Not your typical one-run victory, but it'll do.

This pitching is scary.

I thought Castro did a very good job of slamming the door shut after the Machado home run. The last couple of pitches to Lavarnway to end the game were nasty.

I actually didn't mind Hendriks' outing either.  Facing the meat of the Oriole lineup, he threw very hard and strikes.  He struck out one, and allowed three hard hit balls in play, two on the ground and all went for hits.  On most days, one or two will turn into outs.  As they have for Hendriks this season.  If he rarely walks batters (which is his career long pattern) and continues to strike out more than his share, he's going to be effective most days. 

Andrew Miller so far for the Yankees: 7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 15 K, 6 SV, 0 BS

At 4/$36m, he didn't come cheap, but he has been a worthwhile investment so far. He would have been a nice addition to the Jays' bullpen this year.

The lengths this team won't go to to improve its record in 1-run games.

I don't know, they went pretty far out of their way to win a 1 run game tonight.

first legit good sp performance of the year, just in time to move into 1st place. bow let's see if the other sp can follow suit.

With a lefty starting tonight for Tampa, you'd think that the club might give Saunders one more day on the DL provided that Bautista is well enough to play.  Even if he isn't, it wouldn't shock me to see Valencia at first base and Tolleson in left field.  It's not recommended by central casting, but sometimes old habits are hard to break...

I know he was a high profile acquisition in the off-season, but how confident should we be that Saunders will be an improvement over either of the incumbent outfielders (Pillar or Pompey) he might replace?

I have the same thought Beyonder about Saunders. He will walk more than Pillar, I am quite sure. But Pillar could lose that intangible...momentum.

"....but how confident should we be that Saunders will be an improvement over either of the incumbent outfielders (Pillar or Pompey)...."

Pillar has won a lot of fans with his defensive gems this month, and he's had some clutch hits and nice base-running, but people forget that he's still hitting poorly.  After nearly 300 plate appearances in the majors, his slash line is .246/.279/.371.   That's okay for a 4th OF who is valuable for his defence and base-running, but those are poor numbers for a full-time left fielder.  Maybe he'll improve, but he's 26 now and has been in and out of the majors since 2013, so I don't think we should just assume that he'll get drastically better.  At this point he's a good 4th OF who might improve if all goes well.   Saunders, on the other hand, had a line of .273/.341/.450 last year.  He can take a walk, he gets on base, he's a good base-runner and he's got some power.  The biggest difference between Saunders and Pillar is the OBP line, and that's important in a lineup with a lot of other good hitters, a lineup where the 7th or 8th hitter needs to get on base for the big hitters at the top of the lineup.  My only concern about Saunders is the two injuries this season and how long it might take him to adjust back to major-league pitching.   But over the long term, he's likely to be a significantly better hitter than Pillar, as he was last year. 

As for Pompey, he's got great potential and the team is committed to giving him lots of chances in the lineup this year, but he could benefit from some occasional time on the bench to learn from the others, and to reduce the pressure on him.  It makes perfect sense to have Saunders, Pompey and Pillar rotating through the CF and LF positions, with occasional DH stints for Saunders too.  I'd give more playing time to Saunders than to Pillar, but there's room for Pillar in this arrangement too.  It should work to the advantage of all of them.

over the last 3yrs since he's entered his mid 20s saunders (109wrc+) has been in the same class of hitter as Martin (111) and reyes (106), and while the defensive numbers for some reason say he is super awesome in rf but awful in lf, his overall corner OF rating is +7.2uzr/150, which is quite good, and not surprising for a guy who at one point was a decent defensive CF.

and as great as pillar's D is, he's still not doing much at the plate (89wrc+).

so yeah saunders should be a pretty nice upgrade in LF.

well, at least against RHP. there's a chance pillar might be the better option VLHP though even then saunders is pretty good against LHP too.

Here's a comp that makes me smile:

2012-15

M.Saunders (28): 1284pa, 109wrc+, 5.9war, 2.8war/600pa
P.Sandoval (28): 1728pa, 114wrc+, 7.7war, 2.7war/600pa

M.Saunders (28): 112wrc+ vRHP, 102wrc+ vLHP
P.Sandoval (28): 128wrc+ vRHP, 80wrc+ vLHP


Red Sox handed that guy $100 million this year. And while he's been healthier, he's literally obese so that might not last.

I agree with all that, except that I think that the club would be wise to break up all the RH hitters in a row.  Having Travis, Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Martin lined up makes it easier for opposing managers with RH specialists.  If Saunders is healthy (and even better running well), I'd have him in there somewhere in the middle against RHP.    It could be as simple as hitting him before Martin in the 6 hole, or maybe even third.  These are very pleasant problems for a manager to have.

That bullpen.... is going to make it a long year.

As long as a W is there in the end I can live with it.  Even Henke/Ward had their moments. 

• Henke had 55 blown in his career with 311 saves.  217-37 as a Jay with 29% of inherited runners scoring.
• Ward in his one full season as a closer was 45-6 in saves.  35% of inherited runners scoring. Career was 29%.
• Billy Koch is the only other guy to get 100 saves as a Jay - 163-30 for saves, 31% of inherited runners scoring. In 3 years as a Jay it was 100-17 30% inherited scoring.

Funny how those 3 are all so close in % of inherited runners scoring. 

So far Castro is 4-1 in saves, 33% inherited scoring (2 of 6). Not at Henke levels but decent.

the over reliance on castro scares me. he's giving up lots of loud contact even on his outs. he's living dangerously, and his underlying numbers are the worst of any of the relievers. gibby has to back off of him a bit i think. Osuna's probable more deserving of that kind of usage i think.

that being said the RP are 9th AL in ERA and 7th in SIERA so they haven't been a problem so far.

Jays are #1 in the AL East (tied with Boston & NYY).  SRS (which factors in strength of opponents and a few other things) has the Jays as #1 in the majors.   Jays are #1 in runs by 9 over NYY and the Padres.  Just 112 K's for the hitters which is 8th best in the majors.  Jays are #6 in total walks.

The pitching hasn't been as nice by any measure.  By FIP the Jays are dead last in the majors.  Last night was good for Hutchison - he needed that badly.  Norris & Sanchez need to right themselves soon.  Sanchez walking 7.7 per 9 IP just won't work.  Another top notch starter would be nice so Sanchez can go to the pen but I think patience might be rewarded here. 

Two things to consider when looking at Saunders - his age and his home park. He came up to the big leagues early, when he was only 22. Last year, he was still just 27, and if you look at his OPS by season, he still seems to be improving. If you look at the OPS numbers by season for his 6 years in the big leagues, it's not nearly a straight line progression, but if you graph them, you'd get a line of best fit that moves up and to the right. He spent all 6 of those years in Seattle, which, of course, is a terrible hitters' park, and his career OPS in about 80 points higher on the road as a result. I think he could be a 20-25 HR hitter with regular AB's, and his BA won't be great, but it should be considerably better than his career number of .231.

Pillar has been disappointing to me with the bat so far. His numbers at AAA last year, particularly after the absolutely terrible start to the season, along with his steady and rapid rise through the minors, indicated to me that he was going to have a good year with the bat in the big leagues. Maybe he's a slow starter, maybe it's just the small sample size, or maybe he's just not as good as I anticipated. His slash line is almost identical to what he did in his 116 AB's last year. I expected he'd do something more like .290/.330/.440, and hoped he might be even a bit better than that, but we are just 16 games into the season, and he may still be that player.

Tolleson in left-field, Valencia at third, Encarnacion at first and Donaldson DHing tonight. 

No harm in DHing Donaldson once in a while if he's going to play 162 games (he played 158 each of the last two seasons).

Ouch.  I feel sorry for Dickey tonight.  Good night to get 27 K's :)

I think that it's a good idea to DH Donaldson once in a while.  It's particularly a good idea tonight because it's the 11th straight game on turf and a lefty is going, so you can Valencia's bat in the game in a good situation for him. 

Some good news:  Bautista won't need the DL, he's likely to DH this weekend, could even be available to PH tonight.

He's had a mediocre start to the season, but the Jays really need his bat in the lineup, and he's due for a hitting eruption soon.

the Jays really need his bat in the lineup

To make up for the pitching?