The plan is apparently to rest Reyes this weekend, and hope that he can play on Monday & avoid the DL.

I'm not sure the Jays have been real successful at the "Keep Reyes off the DL" game. The guy gets hurt; you might as well accept the inevitability of a couple DL stints, and be happy if he can play 120-130 games.

Travis leading off tonight.  Early, small sample size, etc, but man, what a first couple weeks for the kid.

Monday's an off day, so Reyes will have 4 full days off Fri-Mon to see if he can get healthy. I'm skeptical. I have Reyes in one of my pools, and I'll have to decide on Monday whether to use him next week - I figure I'll be benching him unless they come up with a news release by then saying he's definitely playing Tuesday. My guess is he needs a DL stint.

I like Travis hitting leadoff. With the way he's hitting, you want to get him another AB every game. He might even be the best answer for the regular 2 spot in the order once Reyes is back, although Donaldson has hit well there.

Smoak out again.  Navarro DHing and Encarnacion at first base.  It looks like Gibbons doesn't have much confidence in Smoak.  So far, the club has seen 9 RH starters and 1 LH. A dependable left-handed bat would really help, and maybe Saunders is the one. 

Yes, I'm surprised Navarro is getting so much use at the expense of Smoak. Navarro's a better hitter right handed than he is left handed. Saunders will help, but I think the optimal use would be to keep Pillar in there as well for most games. Saunders DH'ing would achieve that. Maybe play Pillar in CF some, and give Pompey some days off.

Nobody else can DH while Navarro is on the team. 

I'm not superstitious, but player don't usually have a good year when they are on the cover on a videogame.
I'm talking about Martin, of course.

MLB Trade Rumors reports: 1102 CDT, John Gibbons talks on Fan 590. Reyes has small crack/fracture in his rib.

Look for Ryan Goins to be up here for at least 15-45 games as our Starting Shortstop. It's possible they are waiting to see if Donaldson is ready to simplify any DL moves. I expect a decision to be made by Monday.

You mean Saunders?

Travis leading is paying off already. He must be living in a dream right now.

For some reason, watching Travis hit makes me want to watch Michael Young highlights.

Doesn't appear to me that Sanchez is the biggest starting pitching problem at this point.

Yeah, Hutchison as not been good. Pitching in general remains a problem...

It's compounded because in April pitchers are ahead of the hitters. That's true for the Jays hitters, but not for half of the Jays pitchers. 

Ah the SI cover hypothesis, though I believe Tiger Woods had a good run of years

MLB The Show has a Canadian release with a Blue Jays player on the cover every year.

2012 Bautista, (wrist injury)
2013 Bautista, (hip injury)
2014 Brett Lawrie, (hand injury/oblique strain)
2015 Russell Martin (fingers crossed)

Watching Travis play, it's amusing to recall that not all that long ago Law dismissed him as a non-prospect. Travis really has been outstanding.

As for Sanchez, he might or might not work out as a starter, but can we all just get behind him for the time being? It's a bit unseemly to see the people who predicted failure for him already expressing a kind of satisfaction in his command issues in the early going.

I've never seen an OF make so many spectacular catches in a short stretch as Kevin Pillar. It's gotten to the point where, when he dives for a ball, like early in today's game, I expect him to catch it. Sure enough, he did.

Travis looks like the real deal. Amazing power for a smallish second baseman. Joe Morgan lite. On the broadcast, they talked about the thing I was saying yesterday, about Travis getting pounded at 2B on relay throws. He said he wasn't getting hit in the minors the way he is in the big leagues. They've got to teach him how to do a better job of avoiding those hits, or he's going to have a very short career.

Checking Fangraphs this morning and Devon Travis leads all Blue Jays in WAR and all Major League second basemen. Um...Wow! Something tells me there is going to be some serious scouting of the young man and it is oh so early but how can you not be impressed.

Early yet, but this pitching staff is making me nervous.  We could be fine - good even - but not much margin for error.  If Hutch regresses - which I doubt, but he's looked rough thus far - and Sanchez / Norris struggle, we could be in trouble.  I think a fringy 5th starter would be fine - Hendricks has looked great and there are several underwhelming vets in AAA who could hold down the fort if Estrada is a full-time long man.  In fact Sanchez to the pen, Hendricks to the rotation as Ugly (I think) has been saying could solve the pen issues.   But carrying two fringy starters and things get dicey.

The pen has me nervous as well.  The young guns are having growing pains but look dominant.  Cecil and Loup should be fine but so far have looked poor and Cecil's velocity drop is a concern.  There are tons of intriguing options in AAA and even AA for the bottom of the pen depth chart - Danny Barnes was on the prospects to watch list in 2012 before injuries set him back, but fully recovered he's got 10 ks in 5ip so far - and yet there is no room for him in AAA.  Gregory infante throws major heat and has yet to allow a baserunner, preston guillmet and steve delebar are both righties on the 40 man that have options as does Rassmussen from the left side if Hynes continues to struggle.    But if one of the key arms from the back end of the pen goes down - one of the youngsters loses his control, or Cecil / Loup are actually regressing - who takes those key high leverage innings? 

Does anyone see Soriano as a fit or is Boras too much of a disincentive?  Is our AAA pen depth sufficient to handle high-leverage innings?  What happens if we need a second starter - can we still take the division?  I can't be the only one who fidgets nervously at the thought of Randy Wolf or Andrew Albers.

Jon Heyman has reported that Buehrle is considering retiring after this year. If that happens, we lose the QO/draft pick gambit.

Apparently Buehrle is one of those guys who has always talked about retiring. It's the very rare player who walks away while still able to attract a lucrative contract. Believe it when you see it.

I'm sorry, was rushed, yes to Saunders not Donaldson.
Sanchez didn't have much in Start One, now in Start two, his Fastball/sinker is up to 94-96. Can't wait to see Start Three. Hutchison's problem seems to be his trust in his Fastball. Not throwing your fastball to a player until your third pitch is not encouraging. Cecil on the other hand doesn't have his good stuff back yet and might not ever get it back.

Randy Wolf is looking pretty good. Santana won't be pitching in April.

That play by Simmons (a Baltimore chop over the third baseman, Simmons dashes way out down the left-field line, slides and fields with his bare hand, comes up throwing and fires a strike to second to hold Travis at first) won't make too many highlight reels or statistics sheets, but it was a helluva play.

Donaldson and Bautista starting to heat up. Look out.

Both Toronto teams made unlikely late game comebacks to force extras. Alas, the Raps did not fare as well as the Jays.

As for Simmons, he's been looking like a cartoon character all weekend, moving so fast he leaves what appears to be a trail of smoke behind him (yes, I know it's really ground up tires or some such).

Kevin Pillar with the walk! 

Colt Hynes has to be out of chances at the this point no?  5 games, not a clean appearance yet. 

There is some speculation that the Jays could option Hynes and recall Francis, who hasn't pitched since his 5 innings on Wednesday.  Francis is worth a try, but the only problem is that he can't be optioned back down later (without his approval at any rate).  So that might create some additional inflexibility in the bullpen -- both Francis and Hendriks would be impossible to demote without losing them.

Rassmussen has options, is on the 40 man and looked good last year - why not him? 

Looks like we may have stumbled upon something in Liam Hendriks who looks pretty good in relief.

Starting Pitchers: 12gms, 5.5ip/gs, 4.80era, 5.70fip, 4.82xfip, 4.63siera

SP have to get a lot better, and fast.

P.S. Castro has secretly maybe been our worst RP:

SIERA

1. Hendriks 0.61
2. Osuna 2.58
3. Cecil 2.64
4. Hynes 3.12
5. Estrada 3.45
6. Loup 3.68
7. Castro 4.59
(8. Redmond 6.14)

I take back everything bad I ever said about Liam Hendriks, I had no idea he had the ability to ramp it up out of the pen. His fastball and slider are amazing compared to his very middling stuff as a starter. To all those who advocated to keep him during Spring Training, I apologize. You were right, and I was wrong. Happily wrong.

Starting Pitchers: 12gms, 5.5ip/gs, 4.80era, 5.70fip, 4.82xfip, 4.63siera

The low innings is not a huge problem with the huge bullpen. Also remember that we almost got a quality start out of each starter the first time around.  Let's look at this in May.  (Poor Pete Walker)

The low end of the definition of quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) is a 4.50 ERA, which is worse than an average SP's ERA. It just doesn't feel right calling something quality when it is below average.

Here is the Inside Edge fielding summary for the Blue Jays so far. Pillar's climbing the wall catch was in the "1-10%" category.  I am pretty sure that ball is caught considerably less than once in a hundred.  Most leftfielders don't get back to the fence fast enough to even have any kind of shot at it.  Bo Jackson might have got it.   Joey Gathright might have got it a different way by getting back faster and simply leaping. 

What is the 0% category anyway?  A home run to the second deck?  If so, what is the point of counting those anyways?

The Jays have recalled Jeff Francis and optioned Colt Hynes.

Here's a good article about the Sanchez's potential. Makes you a little more optimistic that he can become a good to excellent MLB starter with a few tweaks.

http://www.pitcherlist.com/gif-breakdown-the-allure-of-aaron-sanchez/

(I had to right click and press "play" on the GIFs to make them go, if anyone else has that issue)

Major league baseball is tough and having a team with a lot of rookies leads to mistakes and errors.

Pompey just misplayed a ball costing three runs, his second misplay of the series. Norris and Sanchez have had their ups and downs too.

the braves have a similar no-name bullpen to the Jays.  Righties Andrew McKirihan and Brandon Cunniff are minor league relievers making their first appearances in the bigs this year.  Cody Martin and Sugar Ray Marimon (my nominee for best baseball name of the year) are debuting  former starters.  the highest pedigree on any of these guys was Martin, a 7th round draft pick.  the others came in the 20s or as IFAs. 

the back end features veteran reclamation projects Jason Grilli (who I wouldve taken a flier on here) and Jim Johnson, while lefty Luis Avilan has been a solid set up guy for a few years.  That's it in terms of 'name' relievers.  10th in the league in ERA, 7th by xFIP for just over 8 million dollars, and with optionable players providing flexibility. 

Perhaps this is a new trend in baseball as smart times recognize just how fungible bullpen arms are?   Is there a role in baseball that is evolving more than that of reliever?  

What Gerry said. Again.

struggles at the plate are one thing, but pompey can't be a liability defensively if he wants to stay in when saunders gets healthy.

but despite the D, Norris still has to be much better than that. his location is not even close right now.

jer - the rays have been doing that for years with their bullpen. orioles have had some great pens lately doing the same.

Ugly, both teams have indeed been building quality bullpens out of unheralded parts with real success for years.  But I do see a significant difference nonetheless - The Rays have given a lot of unheralded FAs from other teams opportunities - Rodney, Peralta, Wright, Boxberger, Ramos, Balfour - these guys all made significant contributions to the Rays pen of the past few years, and all got their start in the bigs with other orgs.  mcgee and Gomes would be the in-house guys developed, with McGee having been a reasonably highly regarded arm. 

For the Os, guys like Johnson, Hunter, Britton and Matusz were high to medium round draft picks that failed to pan out as starters but look great in the pen. 

The Braves seem to be pushing low pedigree guys into roles that they can succeed in. 

We seem to be pushing talented rookies with inning limitations into high-leverage roles where we can get them the best coaching possible while managing their innings, along with fringy guys with options to make sure we have whatever role we need- 3rd lefty, 2nd longman, etc. - covered.  Maybe a Hoffman type arm makes it up for September? 

I also applaud how quick AA has been to move guys with a track record of sorts OUT (Delabar, Jenkins, Redmond) in these lower leverage roles.  It must be an attractive quality in an org for a AAAA arm - you might actually get a big league pay cheque for a month or two if you sign with the Jays. 

And it must suck to be Chad Jenkins with options remaining. 

Now Travis is hurt; the obvious SS Goins, 2B Tolleson middle infielders combo aside, is it time to experiment Danny Valencia at 2B and against RHP  when Travis' health status is unclear enough to promote someone like Kawasaki from Buffalo ? Say against a LHSP, Valencia at 2B with Tolleson at SS ? Against a RHSP, 2B Valencia and SS Goins.

This experiment save the promotion from a thinning middle infield depth.

is it time to experiment Danny Valencia at 2B and against RHP

Valencia is not a second baseman and can't hit RHP. I think the time for your experiment is never.

After today's game Pompey has a higher OPS than Pillar, 618 vs. 615. Pillar has gone 1-15 over his last four games. Pompey has 4 walks vs. 1 for Pillar. Pompey also has two home runs vs. one for Pillar.

The Jays need a healthy Saunders to come back soon.

Agreed Gerry.  I'm not confident about either player as a starter and wish we had another mlb option in the OF to platoon with Pillar and Pompey.  Who's first up from AAA in the event we need someone else?  Nobody has had a good start outside of Smith Jr., brand new to AA.  When is Dirks back?

Travis d'Arnaud (317/356/537) has broken his right hand. Another tough break for the apparently extremely injury-prone 26-year-old.

Looking elsewhere around the league, Detroit appears to have the early edge on Boston in the Cespedes-Porcello swap. Cespedes, who homered twice today, is up to 300/314/600 (1:10 BB:K, though), while Porcello has allowed 5 HR in 19 IP and has a 6.63 ERA.

the best solution in cf is still probably a strict pompey/pillar platoon.

if travis is hurt then a kawasaki/tolleson platoon at 2b would work. that was what i wanted to see if travis hadn't been ready for the bigs this year.

Gibbons said on The Fan that he expects Reyes to be ready to play on Tuesday, although he may have to hit right handed all the time until the rib heals. He seemed optimistic about Travis as well. Reyes' splits are as even as you'll ever see for a switch hitter. Almost zero difference in average, slugging, OPS etc., so it's not like hitting righty is his weak side or anything like that. However, he does have 25 career AB's as a right hitter vs righty pitchers, and the results were very, very bad.

Pillar's problem so far has been vs lefties, hitting .100, compared to .275 vs righties after today's game. Very small sample size of course. He and Pompey have about a week or two to get the bats going better before Saunders comes back and eats into their time. If they don't, yes, a CF platoon is probably what we'll see.

Saunders is leading off and playing LF for Dunedin today, btw.

Travis d'Arnaud (317/356/537) has broken his right hand. Another tough break for the apparently extremely injury-prone 26-year-old.

     Is Navarro's trade value increasing yet again ? The Jays minor league stacks catching depth, not to mention part timer Jake Fox. Instead of players, can Jays take cash consideration ? Then with the obvious Thole in Toronto, Ochinko and one of Jimenez or Fox in Buffalo, my eyes is easing from looking at missed opportunities of seeing 4 or 5 available catchers in AA.

Saunders went 0-4 with 3Ks.  It might be a while.

The club's 3 young position players- Travis, Pompey and Pillar- have done just fine.  The slash lines don't tell the story.  They have played good defence as a whole, mental mistakes notwithstanding.  Travis has put up a great offensive line with a lot of help from a .371 BABIP.  Pompey has put up a poor line with most of the trouble arising from a .194 BABIP. Pillar has hit enough to be a useful player given his other abilities.

It's the pitching that has been disappointing.  Over 4 walks and over 1.5 HRs per 9 IP just doesn't cut it.  When your defence is helping you out as the Blue Jays defence has been doing, it should make it easier for pitchers to give 6 decent innings most times out.  That hasn't been happening.

The Blue Jays organisation has quality talent - Does Paul Beeston want to end his 2nd tenure with another disappointing season and failure, just to see Ed Rogers bring in his new guy and Success - If this mediocre pattern continues, I expect Beeston to push for a change.

Is Navarro's trade value increasing yet again?

Maybe the Jays can get Syndergaard for him :-)

It's the pitching that has been disappointing.

I guess it's not surprising that Hutchison, Norris, and Sanchez have all had difficulties. As the saying goes, "Young pitching will break your heart."

Bautista, Encarnacion, and Martin are all off to relatively slow starts, and the Jays are already 1-4 in one-run games. Plus Reyes has sustained his annual spring injury. For the Jays to be 6-7 despite it all is actually a reasonably impressive accomplishment.

If this mediocre pattern continues, I expect Beeston to push for a change.

At this point, I'm not sure that Beeston has much clout - everyone knows that he is leaving. Besides, I suspect that Rogers is probably more interested in brand leveraging to maximize quarterly profits than in winning. Grumble grumble grumble.

Heh.  d'Arnaud would look really good here now - 317/356/537 in 45 PA so far.  Syndergaard has 2 AAA starts so far 7 2/3 IP 9 H 6 BB 7 SO 4 ER 1 HR (it is Vegas).  Their backup catcher is 0 for 7 so far with 4 walks.

Kyle Drabek has been DFA'd by the White Sox.

"....I guess it's not surprising that Hutchison, Norris, and Sanchez have all had difficulties. As the saying goes, "Young pitching will break your heart".....

This is true.  It also highlights how big of a loss the Stroman injury was, since Stroman was much better than any of those three pitchers last year and probably would have been this year too.   And it also highlights the wisdom of AA's decision to acquire reliable veterans like Dickey and Buehrle (at a steep cost, of course).  When young pitchers are having their ups and downs, you need good reliable veterans to keep the rotation afloat.  A couple of veterans, a couple of young pitchers like Hutchison and Stroman, and then a 5th pitcher who can be a gamble -- that's a decent formula for good pitching.  Stroman was lost, and now the Jays need Norris or Sanchez to step up and replace him adequately.  If one of them can do that, I'll take my chances on improvising a 5th starter from among the younger prospects and other fringe pitchers in the minors and elsewhere.

Don't be fooled by the ERA.  Dickey has been pretty bad. In the same way that Hutchison has not been as bad as his ERA would make it seem.  Even Buehrle has not been at his best.  It's been a rough start all the way around for the rotation.

d'Arnaud would look really good here now.  Kyle Drabek has been DFA'd by the White Sox.

With Hassel, err Russell, Martin, the Jays could not offer PAs for him ? Could Drabek be claimed again with cash consideration ?

".....Dickey has been pretty bad...."

Aside from allowing a few more walks, his peripherals and advanced stats aren't very different from last year.  His FIP is a little higher, his WHIP is a little lower, his K/9 and HR/9 are about the same.  He again leads the Jays in innings pitched, although Buehrle is one start behind and could theoretically catch up.  His 3 games have perhaps been a little worse than last year's average on balance, but he remains a reliable innings-eater, which counts for a lot when the rotation has 3 kids who are 24 or younger.

12 walks in 19 innings will lead to very unpleasant messes before too long. Zero tolerance for pitching incontinence...

I hope that Pete Walker isn't conveying the message that this lack of control is OK. It's been a persistent problem for the organization for years.

Don't be fooled by the ERA. Dickey has been pretty bad. In the same way that Hutchison has not been as bad as his ERA would make it seem. Even Buehrle has not been at his best. It's been a rough start all the way around for the rotation.

I disagree. Starters pitch differently depending on the score. We've seen it happen too many times. Starts depend on too much. How was the Defense? Not everything that happens poorly shows up as an error. How was the Offense? Too many Hitter are underachieving badly, while those who are hitting better aren't as consistent as needed. How was the Bullpen? That will be a work-in-progress all season long, as Pitchers struggle at inopportune times.

April 8th in New York was a 4-3 Loss. Was it the Manager? Was it Loup? Was it Cecil? Was it Defense? Was it Offense? This game should have been won, no excuse not win it. The Starter: 6.1 IP, 4H, 1ER, 3BB, 4SO.

April 13th was the Home Opener verses Tampa was a 2-1 Loss. What happened to the Offense? Games like this must be won. A Starter is as only dominant as you let him be. The Starter: 6.0 IP, 3H, 2ER, 5BB, 6SO.

April 14th verses Tampa was a 3-2 Loss. What happened to the Offense? Another learning experience by the Bullpen? Games like this must be won. The Starter: 5.0 IP, 2H, 2ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR.

April 16th verses Tampa was a 4-2 Loss. What happened to the Offense? More Relief issues? Another game that must be won. The Starter: 5.1 IP, 5H, 2ER, 3BB, 4SO.

April 17th verses Atlanta was an 8-7 loss. What happened to the Bullpen? You must hold the lead when you get it. Too many needless losses occur when you can't. The Starter: 4.2 IP, 7H, 5R, 4ER, 3BB, 6SO.

As I said earlier, Starters pitch differently depending on the score. Starts depend on too much. when it gets to the point of involving trust/lack of trust then it can unravel very quickly.

Craig Edwards proposes 'reworking the blue jays pitching staff' at Fangraphs.  His conclusion:

"While the team could probably use a few more innings from Drew Hutchison, the performance of the team’s top three starters in R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Hutchison should be fairly stable as the season goes on. The team could flip the roles of Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada to potentially help both the bullpen and the rotation, but if Daniel Norris’ dead arm does not recover soon, the Blue Jays have few options to keep the back end of the rotation productive."

12 walks in 19 innings will lead to very unpleasant messes before too long

Yep. 12 walks in 19 is innings is tolerable if all you're doing is giving up 11 hits. But a .184 BABIP, even for a knuckleballer, is not sustainable. His career BABIP is 100 points higher. The hits will start dropping. The walks have got to come down.

"....The walks have got to come down...."

Agreed.  But all of us are fretting a lot over 2 or 3 starts from each starter.  The sample size is far too small to worry about.  Any of these five starters could still have excellent seasons, and at the end of the season nobody would care about one or two sub-standard games in April.  As I've said, I'm pretty confident that Dickey and Buehrle will have their usual seasons.  I'm pretty confident that Hutchison will improve. Norris and Sanchez are the question marks.  Probably one of them (at least) will improve to an acceptable level, but the Jays will need above-average performances from two or three starters, and it's still unclear which of them will do this.  Stroman would have helped a lot. 

12 walks in 19 innings will lead to very unpleasant messes before too long. Zero tolerance for pitching incontinence...

With an ERA+ of 128. I'll take that. The last year he was over that he won a Cy Young. There's a big difference between lack of fastball control and a knuckle ball that moves too much. This year Dickey is supposed to be slowing it down to improve the movement. It might be working. His WHIP is down.

I hope that Pete Walker isn't conveying the message that this lack of control is OK. It's been a persistent problem for the organization for years.

Even if he didn't have his hands full with all the young arms, there's nothing Walker can say to Dickey. What does Walker knows about knuckleballs? Dickey is his own pitching coach.

What's really bizarre to me is that i don't think we've even one single start this year that i feel comfortable calling "good".

not one.

Here's a loose ranking of starts from best to worst:

Dickey 4/08: 6.1ip, 1.42era, 3.17fip, 4.46xfip
Hutch 4/06: 6.0ip, 1.50era, 5.18fip, 5.28xfip
Dickey 4/13: 6.0ip, 3.00era, 4.02fip, 5.82xfip
Buehrle 4/10: 6.0ip, 3.00era, 5.84fip, 5.26xfip
Dickey 4/18: 7.0ip, 5.14era, 6.72fip, 4.56xfip
Buehrle 4/15: 6.0ip, 4.50era, 6.51fip, 3.99xfip
Hutch 4/17: 4.2ip, 7.71era, 2.37fip, 2.95xfip
Sanchez 4/16: 5.1ip, 5.06era, 3.20fip, 4.47xfip
Norris 4/14: 5.0ip, 3.60era, 6.41fip, 6.26xfip
Norris 4/09: 5.2ip, 4.76era, 7.42fip, 4.99xfip
Hutch 4/12: 4.1ip, 14.54era, 8.78fip, 4.34xfip
Sanchez 4/11: 3.1ip, 8.10era, 12.04fip, 5.84xfip
Norris 4/19: 2.2ip, 13.50era, 4.51fip, 7.57xfip

I guess that first one deserves to be called good, but definitely not great.

That is really horrible stuff.

Lots of people were skeptical of Shields as a worthy off-season target, but so far he has out pitched all of the Jays starters, and it's not close.

The Jays starters will improve, of course. The question is whether they'll improve enough to keep the team competitive. Time will tell. Even before the Stroman injury, my view was that the team needed one more good starting pitcher.

However, he does have 25 career AB's as a right hitter vs righty pitchers, and the results were very, very bad.

Doesn't surprise me, being a switch-hitter my own self. Last time I played ball, before I got too damn old, I could only bat right-handed because of a wrist problem. It was utterly terrifying. Every pitch seemed to be coming from some strange new angle beyond my field of vision, and headed right for my face.

Nobody thought much about Anthony DeSclafani when he was included in the big trade to the Marlins in 2012, but what a start to the season he's had with the Reds. In 3 starts, he has an ERA of 0.86, WHIP of 0.62, and a K/BB of 16/4. Pitched 8 shutout innings today.

I'm far too lazy to look up Reyes' specific at-bats RH vs RHP, but I'd guess most of them are either a) against unusual pitchers (I recall some switch hitters turning around vs kunckleballers), or b) injury-related, like this. You probably wouldn't expect very good results in those situations.

So, the Cubs are calling up Russell to play second base.  Russell does have strike zone issues, but should be useful at second base.  That team is going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Would the jays not be better off biting the bullet and put Reyes on the DL for the minimum time, hopefully returning healthy - often, guys playing hurt are more of a liability & never get healthy

pretty sure a cracked rib is the kind of injury you play through. not the kind of injury that you worry about getting worse. mostly just a matter of pain threshhold.

Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the lineup tonight.

when i cracked a rib, i couldn't throw hard for weeks. just stretching/coughing/sneezing was really painful.

Before we get too upset about starting pitching, here are the Red Sox starters' numbers.

Kelly 2.13 era 2 starts
Masterson 5.74 era 3 starts
Buchholz 6.06 era 3 starts
Porcello 6.63 era 3 starts
Miley 10.57 era 2 starts

The Red Sox have had 3 one-run games and won them all. The Blue Jays have had 4 one-run games and lost 3 of them. If they had reverse records in one-run games, their place in the standings would reversed.

If you buy the theory that one-run games are decided strictly by luck, then all will come out in the wash. If you're like me and don't buy into that theory, then it seems the difference between the two teams is something more than starting pitching.

the biggest difference might be that their opponents have gifted them with a remarkable 18 unearned runs already.

Jays have scored a more typical 5 unearned runs.

The stats have shown over the years that 1 run is almost 100% luck based while blowouts are skill based.  If you lose by 5 regularly you suck. IF you win then you rule.  Jays are 3-1 in blowouts so far. 
For oddities - the Jays have 9 former all-stars on the team.  Only the Yankees and Red Sox have more (10 and 13 respectively).  Thanks to the 2 kids the pitching staff is the youngest in the AL at 27.3 (Tampa is the same age).  Jays are 6th youngest for offense.  Houston the youngest.Yankees the oldest.

I think it depends too what rib is cracked, though I can't be sure.

I think one run games are pretty much all luck, as JN points out. A four game sample wouldn't be enough to prove one way or the other, regardless.

Don't the jays have a whole whack of ex-all stars in the minors somewheer too? Santana, Delabar, Romero, Francis....


But speaking of age....does anyone find it interesting that the oft-praised Sox are actually older than the oft-criticized Yanks? And that holds true for key players too, not just overall rosters.

ARod 39 - Ortiz 39
Beltran 38 - Uehara 40
Teixeira 35 - Victorino 34
Sabathia 34 - Hanigan 34
Jones 34 - Breslow 34

Drew 32 - Napoli 33
Gardner 31 - Nava 32
Ellsbury 31 - Ramirez 31
McCann 31 - Pedroia 31
Young 31 - Ogando 31

Headley 31 - Buchholz 30
Miller 30 - Masterson 30
Petit 30 - Craig 30
Rogers 29 - Mujica 30
Carpenter 29 - Varvaro 30

Martin 28 - Tazawa 29
Nova 28 - Miley 28
Betances 27 - Sandoval 28
Warren 27 - Kelly 27
Pineda 26 - Holt 27

Tanaka 26 - Porcello 26
Gregorius 25 - Leon 26
Eovaldi 25 - Ross 26
Shreve 24 - Betts 22
Murphy 24 - Bogaerts 22

Uglyone, the key point in the chart is that the Red Sox have two 22 year old down-the-middle position players with pretty much limitless (Betts) and quite impressive (Bogaerts) talent.  The Yankees have none.  The Blue Jays have Pompey and Travis, and that's good. The point is that it is nice to have players who can be expected to be pretty decent and getting better, and who usually can inject some speed and athleticism into a lineup with prime-age players usually delivering other abilities. 

Top-6 position players + Top-4 SP + Top-2 RP:

NYY: ARod 39, Teixeira 35, Sabathia 34, Ellsbury 31, McCann 31, Gardner 31, Headley 31, Miller 30, Betances 27, Tanaka 26, Pineda 26, Eovaldi 25 = 30.5yrs average

BOS: Uehara 40, Ortiz 39, Napoli 33, Pedroia 31, Ramirez 31, Buchholz 30, Masterson 30, Tazawa 29, Sandoval 28, Miley 28, Porcello 26, Betts* 22 = 30.6yrs average

* - assuming Betts is indeed one of their "top-6 position players".



The narrative of the old crippled Yanks vs. the contending Sox doesn't really hold up all that well under scrutiny, especially since the Yanks were much better than the Sox last year despite having their entire rotation die on them, and despite imo making much better off-season signings than the Sox did - i.e. Headley, Miller, Eovaldi, etc.

But Mike, do the Sox have two 26yr old Top-of-the-Rotation talents like Tanaka and Pineda to build around?

Pitching is not the same as hitting.  Pitchers get hurt much more often.  I have no idea whether Tanaka or Eovaldi will be any good in 3 years.  I am pretty sure that Mookie Betts will be. 
Anyways, I agree that the Red Sox are not that much better than the Yankees.  It's not so much that their pitching is old, but it just isn't that good. 

Exciting young players fail all the time too, though. See: Brett Lawrie, who actually looked significantly better than Mookie at the same age. See: Xander Bogaerts, who has struggled mightily at the mlb level.

But more to the point, in talking about THIS YEAR - not the future, the narrative has still been that of Old Creaky Falling Yankees versus Contending Red Sox, when the Yanks were much better last year, imo had a better offseason, and aren't any older than the Sox, either.


And I'm not even sure saying "the sox are not that much better" is accurate - the Yankees might simply be better. Depth Chart WAR projetions on FG have them as the better team, for example.

I don't know, uglyone.  Fangraphs' projections, for what they are worth, call for the Sox to go 80-69 over the remainder of the year and the Yankees to go 76-73.  I confess that I am not too worried about other clubs; the home nine is making me sweat my 89 win projection and 92 win gut instinct.  The projection looks pretty solid so far, but matching Pythagoras will take some catching up. 

The Yankees aren't terrible at full strength, but they have much less depth (Refsnyder notwithstanding) and much greater injury risk than the Red Sox, and the 10-team playoff field makes it harder to buy upgrades in midseason. I will be absolutely stunned if they finish ahead. Out of respect for Tanaka and Pineda I'm not gonna come right out and say "mortal lock for last place," but...

I don't think the Yankees are that bad, Alex.  They've outscored their opponents so far, and if they do that over the season, they might win 90 games with Betances and Miller carrying the load. 

Mike, their depth chart projections peg them for the 5th most war in baseball http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=9 ....and that's with Arod still only projected for 0.3war, which looks more laughable by the day.

the yanks finished ahead of us last year, and way ahead of the red sox, and now with Arod, Headley, Miller, and a likely much healthier pitching staff this year, it seems odd that anyone would peg them to be less than good this year.

Ellsbury/Gardner/Arod/McCann/Headley/Texeira is a heckuva lineup, offensively and defensively.

Tanaka/Pineda/CC/Eovaldi is a heckuva rotation.

and their bullpen is great.

and why do people keep bigging up Boston’s depth? Having Victorino, Hanigsn, and a couple of raw 22yr olds in the starting lineup isn't great depth, and neither is the likes of craig snd leon on the bench.

and that's with them 100% healthy.

I don't remember Snider being this poor defensively while with Toronto. The man needs a white cane.

I don't remember Snider being this poor defensively while with Toronto.

Watching him reminds me of Tim McCarver's call "And Lonnie plays it like a bag of toys."