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The pitching match-ups for this three-game series.

Monday at 1:05pm ET — Drew Hutchison vs. Masahiro Tanaka
Tuesday - Day Off
Wednesday at 7:05 pm ET — R.A. Dickey vs. Michael Pineda
Thursday at 7:05 pm ET — Daniel Norris vs. C.C. Sabathia

New uniform numbers this season — Justin Smoak has #14, Josh Donaldson will don #20 (SWIDT!), Danny Valencia is now #23, Marco Estrada will wear #25, Devon Travis has #29, Colt Hynes wears #49, Miguel Castro has #51 and Roberto Osuna is going with #54. Russ Martin has #55 and Michael Saunders, who wore #55 in Seattle, will get #21 when he gets off the disabled list, sometime in late April.

After the jump, the Batter's Box 2015 Roundtable Preview!

So, is Jose Reyes' new, more manly beard enough to erase the beard deficit from Adam Lind's departure? I say maybe. It isn't an Oakland A's level beard, but it would definitely get him kicked off of the Yankees.


2JB: I think Russ Martin will beard the winner this season. If Steve Delabar is called up, he may be a worthy challenger. Of course, Joey Bats can grow a beard in five seconds. He could go all Forrest Gump/Running On Empty if he wanted to but he has not shown the inclination to let it go yet.

NFH: I sometimes daydream that Bautista spends time between innings shaving off the hair he grew while in the outfield with a big industrial trimmer. And then some intern has to clean out the Rogers Centre drains.

Gerry: Jose Reyes’ beard is likely to become some work of art by the middle of april and be gone by May 1 to be replaced by some topiary hair.  Lind was consistent.  Jose Bautista could out-beard anyone with his chia-pet growth levels.  Jose is just too cool for that.


It has officially been ten years since the infamous Named For Hank/Robert Dudek “Shea Hillenbrand Bet”. Where did the time go? Has the team progressed in that time?


2JB: The Shea Hey Kid will always be known for saying, “The ship is sinking. Play for yourselves.” Nothing has really changed with this team as evidenced by being the only team yet to reach the playoffs in the wild card era.

Gerry: The time went into a whirlpool of promises and regret.  The last several years have shown that JP Ricciardi was not all that bad a GM, until he got tired of the corporate frustrations.


Who will lead the Blue Jays in saves this season?


2JB: My first inclination is to say it will be a trade acquisition. Failing that, I think it will be Miguel Castro.

NFH: Dioner Navarro.

Gerry: In order to be different I will say Cecil, but he needs to nail down all he can over the first two weeks.  If the Jays give him a series of three run leads and he saves them he will stick but if he gets one run leads to save on the road it could be nervous nellie time.



Will John Gibbons avoid the firing line in 2015?


NFH: Is Cito available? The Jays don't usually fire a manager unless Cito is available.

2JB: I said in last year’s preview he will get gassed if the team struggles early but the awesome month of May kept him in the driver’s seat. I like Gibby and I would love to see him get this team into the post-season but the pessimist in me says he’ll be toast before the All-Star break.

Gerry: I say yes, mainly because the Jays have to avoid some of the bad luck they had over the last few seasons.


How many wins will the Jays get?


2JB: I thinking 82 wins at best only because of the additions of Donaldson and Martin will balance out the youth on the ball club but it won’t be enough for a playoff appearance.

Gerry: I say 84.  We all know that it is tough to be a rookie in the major leagues and the Jays have six of them and almost seven with Colt Hynes barely being a non rookie.  I am worried about starting pitching depth and the bullpen.


Who will leads the club in homers?


NFH: Me. I am a club-leading homer.

2JB: I like Bautista to keep his home run crown with 30+ plus dingers. We’ll have more of Joey’s Bombs to just edge out Edwin’s Parrots and Josh’s Raindrops.

Gerry: Josh Donaldson, like Bautista he is all in on the swing.



Who will lead the staff in victories?


2JB: I will say Buehrle finds the win column 15 times to go along with 15 seasons of 200 innings.

Gerry: I think RA Dickey will bounce back.  Drew Hutchison would be my number two selection.




Will Buehrle make it to 200 innings again?


2JB: You can ban his pit bull from Ontario but you can’t ban him from getting 600 outs in a season. He’s only done that the last 14 seasons so who I am say he won’t do it again. He just turned 36 and his next victory will give him 200 for his career. He is in his walk year so he’s got plenty of incentive. If he can keep up this pace for the next few years, he could get a call from Cooperstown.

Gerry: No, he barely made it last year and this year he has a few more bumps in the road.



Where does Dioner Navarro wind up?


NFH: I'd love to see him get a few starts at second to see how he does there.

2JB: I’m going to say he’ll go to the Mets after Travis d’Arnaud suffers yet another injury. Darkhorse pick - Colorado.

Gerry: I think he gets dealt at the deadline to someone who is contending and has an injured catcher.  I will say the Dodgers.


Drew Hutchison is the Opening Day starter. Can he deliver like an ace or is he horribly miscast?


2JB: His overall ERA against lefthanded batters last season was 5.67 but Fangraphs talked about his improved slider in the late going of 2014. He’ll need to keep that going to combat LHBs. The most important thing was he got through last season unscathed after missing the entire 2013 season with Tommy John surgery. Maybe he won’t be an ace but he could conceivably be a number two starter.

Gerry: I don’t think he is an ace but there are not thirty of them in the majors.  I think he has the potential to be a very good starter this year and he isn’t miscast as the opening day starter.  The Jays have several mid-rotation starters and no ace.


Who’s the breakout Blue Jay (think Swing Out Sister)?


2JB: I have a gut feeling Kevin Pillar is going to be a key contributor this year. He bounced back after his pouting incident of being replaced for a pinch-hitter by slugging .509 and swiping 27 bases in Buffalo. On the pitching side, I’m going to go with Daniel Norris to break through as a starter. I was able to see his first MLB start and he showed some moxie by battling the play-off contending Mariners despite a less than 100 percent elbow. I’m excited about his potential in 2015.

Gerry: I am most optimistic about Daniel Norris and Miguel Castro.  Both will breakout in their roles.

Who’s the break-down Blue Jay (think Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers)?


2JB:
As for who the arrow is pointing down for, I’m going with Michael Saunders. He did not play at all this spring thanks to a sinister sprinkler wrecking his knee. I’m also not confident in R.A. Dickey. There were too many times last year when he hit the wall after five innings and he serves up too many gopher balls. I always remember Jack Morris downplaying Dickey’s acquisition by saying knuckleballers are unreliable.

Gerry: I will go with Edwin, he already has had a bad back and he has had injuries before.


Will Devon Travis will fill the void at second base?


NFH: I hope he doesn't get sucked into it.

2JB: I know spring training isn’t the be all-end all but he was good with the twig and he won’t be the next Chris Getz. A .323 career batting average in the minors, double-digit home runs in the last two years and a decent-enough glove and throwing arm were on the scouting report before coming over from Detroit. Maybe Ian Kinsler rejecting a potential trade to the Jays might work out yet if Travis comes close to what he did in the minors and this spring.

Gerry: Offensively he will but I am not 100% sold on the defense.  He seems fine on the balls hit to him and in turning the double plays.  I didn’t think he looked great going back on bloopers.  I think he does OK but Ryan Goins will see time as a late inning replacement.

Will the bullpen be better this year?


NFH: The Jays have started years with some historically awful pitching staffs, so "better" is a low bar. I don't see Terry Adams anywhere near this team, so I'm hopeful.

2JB: Or Jeff Tam. Or Doug Creek. As Gerry noted last year and as many have said before, bullpen performance is so up and down from year-to-year. I think it would be nice if Sanchez were back there throwing gas in the late innings.

NFH: I literally wrote down Jeff Tam, Scott Service and Doug Creek, but then I deleted their names because I feared invoking them like Bloody Mary.

Gerry: No.  You have an unproven closer, an unknown eighth inning guy, rookies and back end guys.  It won’t be a disaster but it won’t be very good either.


Who let the dogs out?


NFH: YOU CRAZY KIDS, STAY OUTTA MY TRAILER (/Hillenbrand)

2JB: Only Anslem Douglas knows for sure.

Gerry: Named for Hank did, yes he did.
Jays vs Yankees & 2015 Roundtable Preview | 175 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
jerjapan - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#299096) #
and of course the first 'hit' of the season is of the Dioner Navarro infield hit variety.  Gotta love baseball.
Lylemcr - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#299097) #
Pillar gets hit, Travis gets walk. Big inning ensues.

The bottom of the lineup is going to be a big part of the success of the offense.

the question I have is, can Reyes play the opening day without getting hurt?
CeeBee - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#299098) #
nice 3rd inning :)
uglyone - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#299099) #
just how AA drew it up.
Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#299100) #
Russell Martin is 1-3, but looks very good at the plate.  Pillar also did not chase a couple of pitches that he was chasing earlier in his young career; he should be fine.  There isn't really a rest stop in the lineup. 
Jevant - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#299101) #
Gotta think that if the Jays can get any sort of contribution on a given day from their bottom 3rd of the order...this is going to be an exhausting lineup for opposing SP to navigate. 

John Northey - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#299102) #
Round table published before I got a chance to get in there - hard lately with the kids and stuff. 
Win prediction 90.  This is the year the Jays finally get a few breaks and not just of the leg/arm kind.

Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#299103) #
Devon!
Lylemcr - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#299104) #
Devon! I second that! First game, first home run... in yankee stadium.

I like how he plays. I think he really enjoys playing the game.
China fan - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#299105) #
Hutchison was very impressive for 5 innings -- just mowing through the Yankees lineup very fast. He ran out of gas in the 6th and was lucky to escape with just the one run against him. That's almost certainly due to this being April 6, but he'll need to do more than 5 good innings as the season wears on.
JB21 - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#299106) #
Everything was great about the Travis AB. Showing his interview from after he was told he made the team. The bomb. The sprinting around the bases on a cloud. The silent treatment. And the fake running high fives. Baseball at its best.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#299107) #
Hopefully Gibbons leaves Loup in for the 8th. 9 pitches in a 1-2-3.
Lylemcr - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#299108) #
Also, Hutch was Clutch.

Last year, the Yankees(and red sox) seem to have the Jays number. These are the HUGE games.
Jevant - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#299109) #
This x1000.
eudaimon - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#299110) #
Sick throw by Martin! Team looks awesome so far
Chuck - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#299111) #
Didi. Dodo.
John Northey - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#299112) #
One win down - 94 more to go to reach the playoffs for sure.  :)
Alex Obal - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#299113) #
Two walks for Travis, in his big-league debut, as the #9 hitter in this lineup. Not bad.

For Tanaka's sake I hope he finds his fastball, or some confidence in his fastball, before too long. He looked like latter-day Freddy Garcia.
StephenT - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#299114) #
Yankees' radio announcers were crediting Russell Martin's pitch framing with getting Castro at least one strikeout in the 9th.
China fan - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#299115) #
One of the things that I liked about the Jays hitters today was their patience at the plate.  They got only 6 hits at the plate, but got 5 walks, and they were consistently going deep into the count.  The Yankees, despite allowing only 6 hits, had to burn through 6 of their pitchers today, and they threw 167 pitches.  That combination of patience and power, plus a deep lineup with on-base threats everywhere in the lineup, should be a good formula for winning games this year.
greenfrog - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#299116) #
After the Arencibia and Navarro years, it's a real joy to watch a first-rate receiver in action behind the dish. As one baseball executive reportedly said this off-season, Martin "impacts winning." He's a significant upgrade at C.

An impressive all-around game for the Jays, and a promising start to the 2015 season.
bpoz - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#299117) #
We are in 1st. Time for a beer. CHEERS!!!
scottt - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#299118) #
I like scoring 6 runs despite Bautista/Donaldson going 0 for 9.

Imagine the same game with Travis starting the season in AAA and his replacement going 0/3.

scottt - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#299119) #
I don't like the 6 Ks in the first 4 innings
scottt - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#299120) #
And now the worse part is waiting 2 days for the next game.
Mylegacy - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#299121) #
The Yanks had (I believe) 8 LH hitters - Hutch's progression against Lefties - his main perceived weakness - appears to be well under way.

I do like wee Travis, quite a bit actually...

92-93 - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#299122) #
Some observations on today's game:

1. Pompey had some nice ABs/swings. I thought he was hosed on a couple of strike calls. The route on the ARod ball was terrible.

2. Tanaka was throwing cookies up there. There was a particular pitch to Bautista to lead off an at bat, I believe after the 2 run Martin single, that Jose should have HAMMERED, and he knew it. He ended up flying out on the AB on another bad pitch, and seemed frustrated by the AB. Bautista's pitch tracking skills haven't missed a beat.

3. Jose Reyes sure knows how to rile up a fanbase, eh? If only the team understood getting Reyes off his feet was as important as subbing in defensively for Edwin.

4. Three innings from two relievers - can we try that all season, John? Please and thank you.

5. I liked that Gibbons bucked convention and put Navarro right in as the DH on Opening Day. The concern about using your 2nd C as your DH is completely overblown - at the very worst it makes you use your pitcher for a few ABs in ONE game; it's really not a big deal. That being said, I wonder if Donaldson put in any work at C this spring, just in case.

6. I despise Yankee Stadium - why does it feel like only the Yankees hit deep pop flies that go for HRs? Confirmation bias, I'm sure, but I hate seeing Brett Gardner and Jacoby Elsbury flick their wrists at the ball and drive it out. Did they shut the jetstream off when Pompey was hitting?
Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#299125) #
I concur about both the good and the bad about Pompey's day.  He had some nice swings, and could easily have hit a home run on a ball that went foul.  And it was a bad route on ARod's hit.    He did, however, get a beautiful jump off the lefty for an easy SB.

Buehrle has the season opener in Baltimore in the 4th game of the year.  It is a day game after a night game.  I suspect that we will see Navarro catching, and I also suspect that setting this up played a role in the decision to have Buehrle skip Yankee Stadium.  I know that he has not fared well historically there, but this is a different Yankee club that lists left to an unhealthy degree. By giving Navarro the DH job today, Gibbons gets him into the game so he's ready for Friday.  I hope to see Smoak playing first base most of the time when a RH is going for the opposition, nonetheless.  Starting on Wednesday. 

Pure pleasure today.  Another 99 of those, please.


uglyone - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#299126) #
ever since battersbox.ca taught me about travis' oblique strain last year, my hopes have soared on him.....and then he goes out and does this. so good.

not that it makes a whole lotta difference but i think we might want to move the younger pompey down to the 9hole to settle him down a bit. kid has looked a little jumpy in front of the bigger crowds this weekend.
BlueJayWay - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#299127) #
I know it's always two teams playing in the same park, but it does feel like the Yankees get 80% of those cheapie homers there.
jerjapan - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#299128) #
great game!  very fun watching all the families of the players in the crowd, and the two Travis interviews were priceless - my girlfriend was charmed by the guy. 

can someone enlighten me as to why Smoak is getting regularly lauded as a plus defender?  i haven't seen him enough to have any sense, but i know the metrics aren't kind to his D.  

i get buck and pat saying this kind of stuff, but i feel like I'm hearing this idea frequently. 
Chuck - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#299130) #
I know it's always two teams playing in the same park, but it does feel like the Yankees get 80% of those cheapie homers there.

The Yankees always field a very left-handed batting order. That would tilt the odds of cheap shots to right in their favour.

BlueJayWay - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#299131) #
It's been a lefthanded heavy lineup lately, but I don't remember it being that way going back to 2009 or whenever that opened. Even when it's a righthanded hitter going oppo it feels like a Yankee most of the time. Hate that park. It's like they've perfected the art of hitting the flyball that just barely goes over, and the other team hits it right to the wall for an out. Feels like that with the Jays there anyway.
Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#299132) #
Was it just me, or did Castro's slider have more bite today?  If so, he could be devastating with the fastball, slider, and change combination.  He's got the nice run and dip on the change, and he spots the fastball pretty well (and can get away with a few mistakes).  It sure helps when your catcher (and a baserunner) bails you out of your first major league jam. 
Hodgie - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#299133) #
On the ARod single it appeared that Pompey was fooled by the swing, expecting much better contact than what was actually made. Otherwise he looked fine and stung the ball a couple of times. On a side note, did Toronto do something to anger Stephen Drew? First he almost takes out Reyes at first then next it is Pillar sliding into Drew's knee. I don't agree with Pat and Buck often, but hopefully Pillar goes in with spikes up on his next steal attempt.
Hodgie - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#299134) #
It would appear that pitching is not getting any cheaper. Porcello has signed a 4 year extension with Boston worth $82M. If the Porcellos of the baseball world are now commanding $20M+ AAV contracts I am even more intrigued by the possibility that the home nine could run out a wholly home-grown rotation within two seasons. Some combination of Stroman, Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez, Castro, Osuna, Hoffman could be electric and cost less combined than would Porcello.
92-93 - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#299135) #
A 4/82m extension inherently assumes Porcello would be worth even MORE on the open market as a FA. He has a career 4.30era, 1.36whip, and 5.5 K/9. Granted, he joined MLB very young, but that's a very interesting valuation from the Red Sox front office. They must believe he has a breakout season in him and don't want to have to commit longer term and dollars if that's the case, but are comfortable that through his age 30 season he will at least provide consistency and durability. For a kid who has taken the ball pretty much every 5 days for 6 seasons now, that's probably a good bet.

I remember wanting the Jays to select Porcello over Arencibia, and being upset that only dollars prevented them from doing so. Porcello fell to the end of the first round and was an absolute gift for the Tigers, who were willing to spend the 7m it was going to take to land him.
Chuck - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#299136) #
It's been a lefthanded heavy lineup lately, but I don't remember it being that way going back to 2009

I can't remember when they weren't extremely left handed and that includes the previous Yankee Stadium as well. Here is their 2009 roster. All LHB except for Jeter and Rodriguez.

Alex Obal - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#299137) #
Porcello is the Jon Garland of this generation.
Mike Green - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#299138) #
Garland wasn't very good after age 27. 

Porcello's 2 closest BBRef comps are Garland and Greg Maddux.  Maddux isn't much of a comp though.  By age 25, Maddux was the most efficient pitcher in the league, and led the league in innings pitched.  Porcello is nothing like that.  On the other hand, I think that he's probably a bit better than Garland, who benefited from some great defences in Chicago. 

scottt - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#299139) #
The key to beating the Yankees lately has to been to start 2 lefties in a series. Although, that might not work out for Toronto.
cybercavalier - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#299141) #
The Fisher Cats Roster is released, seems quite old, lots of the AAA relievers got stored in AA, rather than be released.
Where does Dioner Navarro wind up?
2JB: I’m going to say he’ll go to the Mets after Travis d’Arnaud suffers yet another injury. Darkhorse pick - Colorado.
----------
How about trading Navarro and some unused veteran relievers (or hitters) to the Mets for dÀrnaud ? With Martin in Toronto, the Jays could take much much more time of conditioning the d'Arnaud body ? Just like the Donaldson's trade, the Jays shrinks in number of player but more performance in one player.

I don't know what happen to my last post. Probably I need to be sure that the comments first appear in the comment box.
Alex Obal - Monday, April 06 2015 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#299142) #
That's a less direct way of saying "$82 million is a ridiculous overpayment, and this contract will look like an albatross within two years." Direct isn't really my thing, ya know?

I hadn't looked at the comps. Garland debuted at age 20 as (as I understand it - I was 12) a guy with a good sinker and not much else. And after he developed at the big-league level, he was pretty good for a few years in his mid-20s before he lost a bit of zip (and then in 2010 had a labrum injury). I suspect Porcello's career will have a similar trajectory. Stylistically he's followed a similar path, and once you adjust for league and park, his K/BB/HR numbers are basically in lockstep with Garland's as well. He does induce more grounders. If he stays healthy, maybe he has a longer shelf life as an average starter, I guess. S'not my money.

Anyway, brings up an interesting question about comparing defensive stats across eras. The Sox fielding was amazing relative to the mid-2000s AL. If you airlifted the 2005 versions of Crede, Uribe, Iguchi, Konerko, Podsednik, Rowand, Dye and Pierzynski into 2015, wonder how their fielding stats would stack up. Uribe's competition would no longer include the likes of Derek Jeter, Mike Young, Edgar Renteria, Julio Lugo, or Russ Adams.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#299143) #
Bautista struck out three times. I thought his timing was already established/was locked in during the later parts of Spring Training. I'm apparently mistaken? It's going to be a long season if we get more 1-13, 7 Ks without the HR by the # 3,4,5 Hitters in the lineup. Timing is everything, doesn't always mix well with adrenalin.

Boston apparently sees/values Porcello as a front-of-the Rotation Starter or solid Number Two. How he pitches this season should show if they are right. The way Boston went after their Starter additions seemed strange/obsessive. Throwing low in the strike zone is a good idea, if you are a good enough pitcher initially. That remains to be seen.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#299144) #
It would be funny if Navarro goes to the Mets due to Td'A getting hurt again.  Td'A would be entertaining behind the plate for Dickey - 12 passed balls without a knuckleballer on the staff last year to lead the NL.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#299145) #
I think that it's pretty much impossible to measure team defence across eras because of ballpark changes.

For what it's worth, DRS had the 2005 Blue Jays as being better defensively than the 2005 White Sox.  The defensive stars were Orlando Hudson, John McDonald, Alex Rios, Gregg Zaun and Reed Johnson.  You knew that though!

John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#299149) #
Tomorrow Dickey vs Pineda
Thursday: Norris vs Sabathia - as we see if Norris gets the advantage of the knuckleball effect.

Weekend vs Baltimore
Buehrle vs Norris
Sanchez vs Jimenez - kid vs the free agent many here wanted last winter (myself included). Luckily we didn't get him.  Nice that he'll be facing the pitcher who would've been in the pen most likely had the Jays signed Jimenez last year.

The O's still owe Jimenez $26.5 mil for 2015/16 after a 80 ERA+ year last year.  A reminder that the big winner in the free agent sweepstakes often is the team that didn't sign the player.

Chuck - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#299151) #
I'm apparently mistaken?

Never. A sample size of one game is more than enough to safely draw conclusions.

Lylemcr - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#299152) #
Talking about Jimenez. People were clamoring to get one of those veteran arms last year. I don't think I like the veteran arms as much as I like the getting youth.

In other sports, like hockey and football, kids get out of University and are prime right away to contribute. The idea that players need to grow in the minors is old school, in my opinion. (I would give the exception to catchers). With the fragility of pitchers, etc, I would be more willing to bring up players if they can contribute. If they are worried about the confidence, then I would worry about the long term viability of the player if they can't handle it. I also wonder if the languishing of players in the minors hurts the psyche more than failing in the majors.

I would like to see the Jays have more fast tracking, if the players have shown to earn it(like Osuna did). I can't stand having another veteran in the lineup (Like Izturis), just because they are a veteran.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#299153) #
The April 7 birthday team is so-so, but has Bill Stoneman and John McGraw as player-GM and player-Manager.  The four best position players are McGraw and Adrian Beltre, and Bobby Doerr and Ronnie Belliard.  Matched sets of third basemen and second basemen.  I suppose that you could juggle them around to make an infield.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#299154) #
For someone who was so very locked in as Bautista was in Spring Training, yesterday was a shock seeing his 0-5 with 3 Ks. I recorded it to watch after I got off work. Sample sample size or not, those were some ugly swings Jose took all game long. I fully expect he'll be better next game, but those were ugly swings.

That 5-run inning doesn't happen last year. Normally, the inning's over, with just a hit, two or three batters later. Travis' walk stretched the start of that inning out nicely enough, to let Reyes do whatever he wants to. Defense was pressured just enough to be given a chance to make an error. Even the River Avenue Blues blog figures that the play only cost one run.
John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#299162) #
Last winter everyone wanted the Jays to sign someone ...
Ubaldo Jiménez ended up with an 80 ERA+
Ervin Santana had a meh year in Atlanta 92 ERA+ and got a big 4+ year deal from Minnesota and now is on the PED list for 80 games.
Tanaka: had a great year and now is resisting surgery and stopped throwing fastballs.  $100+ mil is a lot for one good year.

In the end it might have been for the best not signing any of those 3.  Norris & Sanchez hopefully will come through but even if they don't it won't cripple the team going forward.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#299164) #
A.A. has done very well with his acquisitions, however he's only 50-50 with Starters. Dickey and Buehrle were very good acquisitions, Brandon Morrow was a puzzlement and Josh Johnson was a disaster in comparison. I guess the main message here is acquire healthy players for the Main Roster, but take chances on your minor league signings. There's no such a thing as a bad minor league contract. There's no such a thing as a bad one year contract.
Parker - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#299166) #
Never. A sample size of one game is more than enough to safely draw conclusions.

I'm a little surprised Richard didn't comment on Devon Travis's 162-HR, 671 OPS+ season. Just because Bautista is going to strike out 486 times this year doesn't necessarily mean the team is sunk.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#299170) #
What I really want to know is how the Rogers Centre has a park factor of 58 this year without a single game being played.  Is 58 the "new indeterminate" and I failed to get the e-mail?  Will it help if I say thanks for all the fish?
92-93 - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#299172) #
AJ Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Phil Hughes, Tim Hudson, Scott Kazmir, Hiroki Kuroda, Jason Vargas, etc....

If we're going to isolate some terrible FAs from last year, it's probably a good idea to mention the guys who provided good value (or in general were just not a disaster) on the contracts they signed. I'm also confused why the contract Santana eventually signed is a factor at all. Not all FAs are evil.
Chuck - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#299173) #
Will it help if I say thanks for all the fish?

Rogers Centre. The stadium at the end of the universe.

John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#299174) #
The 3 I listed were the ones that were most talked about here at the time.  Santana it was felt was signed but then the Jays wasted too much time and Atlanta got him instead.  If the Jays had signed him they'd have had him for one year and not been able to pick DJ Davis.
JB21 - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#299175) #
If the Jays had signed him they'd have had him for one year and not been able to pick DJ Davis.

A) I don't think this is true
B) DJ Davis is not very good at Baseball
John Northey - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#299178) #
Santana was offered a qualifying offer thus he cost a first round pick (post top 10) to anyone who signed him.  The Jays first 2 picks (Hoffman & Pentecost) were protected picks, so it would've been Sean Reid-Foley who would've been lost.  I read off the wrong list the first time (Jay first round picks instead of 2014 picks only).  No idea if he'll be any good but we'll learn as time goes by.  Santana wouldn't have made the difference last year as his 92 ERA+ was actually a bit worse than JA Happ's (93) and probably he'd have delayed Stroman's coming up (one more starting pitcher ahead of him).
jerjapan - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#299185) #
but santana also yielded a QO, and thus a comp pick, when Atlanta lost him to Minnie this year. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 07 2015 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#299186) #
92, if you look at the June 2007 threads, you can see that there was a strong preference among many Bauxites for Porcello over Arencibia. I think it just came down to money (Arencibia being something of a "value" pick compared to Porcello). It was clearly a penny-wise, pound-foolish choice.

Teams have gotten wiser since then, though not always (for example, the Jays could have bid on Puig, Cespedes or Soler a few years ago (I wanted them to sign the latter), but they chose to stay out of the "high-end" Cuban IFA market).
Hodgie - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#299188) #
Old (or is that former) friend Brett Lawrie had a night to forget by somehow managing to strikeout four times on twelve pitches. Um, yikes.
electric carrot - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#299189) #
Travis Snider on the other hand is on fire for the Orioles with an OPS approaching 2000.
85bluejay - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#299190) #
With the lack of LHH, I was hoping the jays would try to re-acquire Snider who had a great second half in 2014 and was expendable in Pittsburgh - he's seems to be an excellent breakout candidate - Also would have allowed the possibility of moving Bautista to 1B.

I was really impressed by the performance of Brandon Maurer when he was moved to the BP last year & he didn't make San Diego's excellent pen this year - I'm hoping the jays can acquire him for our pen.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#299191) #
Porcello wasn't just a question of money - he also signed a MLB contract, which is pretty insane for a high school pitcher.

It worked out well enough for Detroit, but hardly spectacularly - he had a couple very good seasons, and a few average-to-mediocre ones. If he really lifted his performance to a new level last year, it happened just in time for him to get really expensive.

A better draft choice than Ahrens or Arencibia, certainly, but not nearly as good as 48th pick Josh Donaldson. I also remember quite a few people saying the Jays should pay the big bucks Matt LaPorta wanted, and that didn't work out too well for anyone.
MatO - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#299193) #
Everyone forgets that the Jays picked 16 and 21 and Porcello was considered maybe a number one overall talent or at least top five (after actually seeing him pitch I never understood what all the fuss was about). A lot of teams passed on him, not just the Blue Jays.
Dave Till - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#299194) #

What I really want to know is how the Rogers Centre has a park factor of 58 this year without a single game being played.

The exchange rate, of course: the Rogers Centre park factor is measured in Canadian dollars.

:-)

Alex Obal - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#299195) #
“It’s like throwing water balloons."
- R.A. Dickey on being a knuckleballer in the rain
Chuck - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#299196) #
It's a distinction that probably doesn't amount to much more than a statement, if even that, but odd that Pompey bats in the 6-hole while Smoak is in the 8.

With Yankees batting LHB 8, 9, 1, 2, probably a good idea to have a LOOGY warming up from the get go.

Gerry - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#299197) #
It will be cold in New York tonight, about 5-7 degrees. That might be tougher for Dickey as he prefers warmer weather to get a good grip on the knuckler. Also there was a story that Dickey might take a few mph off his knuckleball this season, look for that tonight.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#299198) #
I don't think it matters much what order the 6-9 hitters are in.  The key thing from my perspective is that Smoak is in the lineup rather than Navarro today. 

Saunders is going out on a rehab assignment, and the club has said that it will move to 7 relievers when he returns.  Good.  It's been a very productive March/April so far, injuries aside.  Management's decision-making has generally been quite good. 



China fan - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#299199) #
"....Saunders is going out on a rehab assignment, and the club has said that it will move to 7 relievers when he returns...."

This, in turn, could also bring Goins to the majors to replace Tolleson, since the Jays won't need Tolleson as the 4th outfielder when Saunders is back.  Let's hope that Tolleson and Hendriks both survive the waiver wire this month.

It will be interesting to see if Pillar stays in the starting lineup after the return of Saunders.   If Pillar continues to hit  well -- as he has been doing this spring and in the opening game, which is admittedly a very small sample size -- it's conceivable that the Jays could look for a way to keep Pillar in the starting lineup, perhaps by giving Pompey and Saunders a little less than full-time duties, or perhaps by using the DH slot.
scottt - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#299200) #
I'd be surprised to see an outfielder at DH while Navarro is on the club.

It's Reyes that will need the most rest.

greenfrog - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#299201) #
I see Josh Smoker has signed with the Mets. I wonder if we'll ever see a Smoak-Smoker matchup in interleague play. At the very least, there would be abundant wordplay opportunities. Either way, Smoker is going to have to avoid getting lit up if he wants to play in the majors.
JB21 - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#299202) #
I've said this a couple times but I'd love if the Jays used DH to give EE, Joey, Reyes, etc. days off in the field. As well, going with Saunders, Pompey, Pillar in the OF with Joey at 1B and EE at DH the odd game. I would love Pillar's bat forced this upon the Jays.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#299203) #
Martin looks pretty comfortable catching Dickey, even with a runner on third.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#299204) #
travis and gose have both carried their scorching springs into the regular season.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#299205) #
I guess Miguel Castro was on a 4 pitch limit.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#299206) #
I wouldn't be bringing in Osuna for his major league debut in this situation. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#299207) #
Never mind.  The Yankee announcers said that Osuna was coming on rather than Cecil.
Chuck - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#299208) #
We're going to need a new stat this year: OHBP.
dan gordon - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#299209) #
Two of the team's weaknesses are costing them big time here - a poor in-game manager in John Gibbons and a shallow back end of the bullpen. They needed to leave Castro in for the 8th inning and didn't do it.
JB21 - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#299210) #
Martin has looked bad in this inning behind the plate. Did the KB mess him up a little?
JB21 - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#299211) #
John Gibbons is a bad in-game manager? Blaming him for this is a reach.
Eephus - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#299212) #
Can't say I'm ever in favour of bringing in a 20 year old to make his major league debut with the bases loaded. In a one run game. Against A-Rod.

So minus one point for Gibby.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#299213) #
To be fair to Loup, he did get the leadoff hitter to pop up to shallow right. Unfortunately the wind carried the ball a bit and Travis couldn't track it into his glove (it wasn't an easy play). That set the tone for the inning.

I dislike intentional walks in many if not most situations where they're theoretically called for. For one thing, they often seem to mess up the rhythm of the pitcher, as happened in the eighth with Cecil.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#299214) #
Osuna can you see!

I was not in favor of bringing Osuna... But... I don't need to say anything more... nerves of steal.

I can't stand it when walks\HBP loses the game.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#299215) #
Good job, Mr. Osuna. 

It was a bit of a tough inning.  There was only one ball hit hard.  The pop-up double was in pretty tough wind conditions (Travis got back much better but didn't play the wind right, as Donaldson hadn't earlier).  Cecil could have easily got out of it with a 1-2-3 on Headley's groundball back to him.

Eephus - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#299216) #
And yet it works. Naturally.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#299217) #
For others with that John Gibbons deja vu feeling, we watched a similar display on April 17 last year, when the Blue Jays lost 9-5 to Minnesota. In that game, on a cold day in Minnesota, Brett Cecil was brought in to throw 2 pitches to get out of the 7th and the Jays took a 5-2 lead into the 8th. Gibbons couldn't bring himself to leave Cecil in after his two pitches, and brought in Delabar to pitch the 8th. This unnecessary bit of reliever roulette, taking out an effective pitcher to gain a platoon 'advantage' which never managed to materialized. Delabar fell apart much like Loup did, followed by Gibbons making another change to his closer, Santos, which didn't work any better than bringing in Cecil did tonight.

There was no reason to take out Cecil after two pitches in that game, than there was taking out Castro after 4. Gibbons can't let the players decide the game.

I'd be a lot less concerned about having 20 year olds in the bullpen than I would about having a minor league manager on the bench.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#299218) #
Tough loss. Gutsy start by Dickey, who pitched very well in adverse conditions.
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#299219) #
Miller was awesome; Betances not so much. 

Gibbons wanted to get the platoon advantage with the 3 lefties coming up, and so brought in Loup.  I can see it.  The idea was Loup for the 8th and Cecil for the 9th, which wasn't a bad idea with the tilt of the Yankee lineup and the wind blowing in a gale from left-field. 

Spifficus - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#299220) #
With three lefties coming up to start an inning, I would have brought in Loup, too.

I'm more concerned about the gun readings for Cecil. Hopefully, it was weather related.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#299221) #
messy freezing april monsoon inning. doubt we see many bloop2b/2hbp/1wp/1ibb/1deflectedDPball innings going forward, though.

castro-loup-cecil for the 7th/8th/9th. not much to complain about from gibbons imo.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#299222) #
I don't know. I thought it was a defensible move to bring in Loup. Had Loup pitched a clean eighth and Cecil closed it out in the ninth, we wouldn't be getting too worked up about it. It's reasonable for Gibbons to take steps to limit Castro's usage, especially on a freezing night in New York with the power-pitching Castro (a rookie) sitting on the bench between innings. If Travis catches Young's shallow fly to lead off the eighth, this game could well have had a different outcome (again, acknowledging that it was a difficult play).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#299223) #
Seems like Loup always struggles in clutch situations. Is it me or does he pad his numbers in non clutch situations?
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#299224) #
It's reasonable for Gibbons to take steps to limit Castro's usage, especially on a freezing night in New York with the power-pitching Castro (a rookie) sitting on the bench between innings.

You don't limit Castro's usage by taking him out after four pitches. That was simply silly. He'd already thrown in the pen. Taking him out after four pitches accomplishes nothing. If you're not going to use him then don't use him, but don't waste an effective pitcher after 4 pitches.

The weather is a reason you don't take him out after 4 pitches. A cold night is not the time for a Tosca-esque adventure through the bullpen to gain a platoon 'advantage'.

Gibbons followed up his misadventure last April 17 with another platoon advantage move that weekend in Cleveland. Again in the 8th, he left in Loup to have the platoon advantage against Murphy if I remember correctly, although Loup was pitching poorly and could get batters out. Murphy of course won the game.

I don't know if leaving Castro in after his silly 4 pitch outing would have caused a different result. I do know I'd rather watch a major league pitcher who is pitching effectively continue in the game than watch Gibbons or Tosca put on a fantasy baseball kid-like show of 'bullpen management.
Last year John Farrell told the media about how he wanted to get Brett Cecil out of a game, so he just brought in a right-handed hitter, predicting corruptly that Gibbons would rotely go to a right handed reliever. It worked of course. Gibbons made the pitching change Farrell wanted and the Sox won the game. I suspect Girardi was pleased to see Gibbons take Castro out of the game tonight and gain his platoon advantage.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#299225) #
Predicting 'correctly', not 'corruptly'.
Spifficus - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#299226) #
Historically, Loup abuses lefty hitters - .234 WOBA (vs a still pretty good .324 vs RHB). Sometimes the right move just doesn't work out. It's baseball; there'll be another chance tomorrow.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#299227) #
As uglyone points out, Gibbons lined up his bullpen to go Castro/Loup/Cecil in the 7th/8th/9th. That's a reasonable approach.

No matter how many times you write "4 pitches," the fact remains that after getting warm on a cold night in game two of a 162-game season, Castro came in, did his job by closing out the seventh, then sat on the bench while the Jays batted. In that situation, it's perfectly reasonable to pat your very young and inexperienced power pitcher on the back, say well done, and move on to your established 8th- and 9th-inning relievers (whom you will be relying on throughout the season, and who give you a platoon- and weather/wind-based advantage).

It does seem a bit early in the year for the rending of garments over bullpen usage.
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, April 08 2015 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#299228) #
it's perfectly reasonable to pat your very young and inexperienced power pitcher on the back, say well done, and move on to your established 8th- and 9th-inning relievers (whom you will be relying on throughout the season, and who give you a platoon- and weather/wind-based advantage).

Loup and Cecil are "established 8th and 9th inning relievers'? Really? This isn't Mariano Rivera setting up John Wetteland on the 96 Yankees. Neither Loup nor Cecil have ever held the set-up and closer roles on which you say pitching decisions should be based. And routing about the bullpen strikes me as an even worse strategy on a cold night that a warm one, so I'm not sure what weather advantage you think Gibbons gained. It's not apparent from the score.

I suspect there are close to 29 other major league teams that would like to have Miguel Castro throwing more than 4 pitches for them. I can't say there are any other major league teams that would like John Gibbons making their managerial moves. I would have rather watched Castro pitch than watch Gibbons make 3 pitching changes and call for an intentional walk to load the bases. I'd be curious to see how often that backfires.
Lylemcr - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#299229) #
He took Castro out with a positive note. 3 lefties were up. Loup just failed.

It is always easy to be a critic from the stands
cruzin - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#299230) #
"It is always easy to be a critic from the stands"

Absolutely it is. But there are others that simply don't believe in the strategy of using lefty/righty matchups.

I can only speak for myself, while I believe the lefty on lefty has merit I don't like burning through too many pitchers if it can be avoided. Therefore, my only complaint is that Castro threw only 4 pitches and breezed through his 2/3 of innings and would've kept him in.

Therefore, even if Loup didn't blow it like he did today and Jays won. I wouldn't have liked the strategy.
Jonny German - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:44 AM EDT (#299231) #
I suspect there are close to 29 other major league teams that would like to have Miguel Castro throwing more than 4 pitches for them.

And yet you can't even drum up much support for your notion amongst fellow Blue Jay fans. Interesting.

Loup is absolute murder on lefties. .187/.253/.260 for his career. Yesterday he was bad, and unlucky. It happens.

Gibbon's most questionable decision was bringing in Osuna for his major league debut with the bases loaded on a miserable night in Yankee stadium. How come no one is complaining about that one?
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 05:18 AM EDT (#299232) #
And yet you can't even drum up much support for your notion amongst fellow Blue Jay fans. Interesting.

If that's your best argument, it was doing better in the back of your mind.
acepinball - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 05:20 AM EDT (#299233) #
Hopefully y'all have had a good nights sleep to think about this one a little bit and cut back on the nonsense. "Minor league manager", "non-clutchness". Ugh.

You guys, Loup is a lefty specialist, and several lefties were due up. It was probably the most miserable pitching conditions you'll see, and he couldn't execute. It happens. Relax. Tough play for Travis that drops. Maybe better 2B's make that play, but Donaldson had a similar play earlier and couldn't make it. Tough conditions.

Jays would have been incredibly lucky to win that game. McCann's bonehead play just about cost the Yankees badly.
China fan - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 06:32 AM EDT (#299234) #
For most of the spring, fans were complaining that the Jays were relying too much on unproven 20-year-old relievers.  And then as soon as the season begins, fans are complaining that the Jays are not using the 20-year-old kids enough.  There will always be complaints, no matter what Gibbons and Anthopoulos decide to do.
Oceanbound - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#299235) #
If you can't play matchups when you've got a fresh 8 man bullpen, I don't know when you can.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#299236) #
I can see the logic statistically behind bringing in a left hander for the eighth inning last night. What my eyes saw was Castro mowing down two batters on 4 pitches in the seventh, including the last batter, a left hander, on three pitches. I think there's such a thing as momentum in sports, even baseball, and if you have a pitcher throwing effectively with minimal pitches, why not leave him in for another inning regardless of left-right matchup ? I'm not throwing John Gibbons under the bus as he had his reasons for his relief pitcher selection, and maybe he was even protecting Castro's arm on a cold night.I just wish that he wouldn't be a slave to statistics and maybe go with his gut and eyes a bit more. It might result in 5 or 6 more wins a year.
ayjackson - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#299237) #
"How come no one is complaining about that one?"

Oh...I know, I know!!

btw, Lawrie bounced back with three hits last night. Graveman goes this afternoon.
CeeBee - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#299238) #
Blustery words on a blustery night. Horrible weather for baseball. Why can't MLB get it through their thick heads that the first couple of series should be in better weather climes or indoors. Seems like this happens almost every year.
John Northey - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#299239) #
Opening day in Buffalo today - so we start to get up to 5 levels of Jays baseball to follow starting today.  Woohoo.
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#299240) #
we've used 4rp for 4.2ip of relief and they've had 1 bad inning where they didn't even give up one well hit ball.

and jays fans are freaking out.
scottt - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#299241) #
Loup is on the team to get lefty batters out. You use him against 3 lefties no questions.

That's the curse of the 8 man bullpen, would Goins be used as a late replacement for Travis? Probably not this early in the season.

Maldoff - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#299242) #
For those clamoring for Castro, I saw his first batter (A-Rod) hit a ball that would have been out of the park on any other night. Let's not make him out to be Aroldis Chapman last night....
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#299243) #
yup. castro got lucky there. arod just missed it.
Paul D - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#299244) #
I was surprised and impressed by the fact that Gibbons didn't wait until the bottom of the ninth to bring in his closer, instead he brought him in when he thought he was needed.
eudaimon - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#299245) #
Agreed, I was actually impressed that Gibbons put Cecil in when the game was on the line, instead of insisting he only pitch the 9th.

I think bullpen management is harder that most fans think. It's easy to second guess things when they don't work out, and when you don't actually have the "make the call" on a regular basis. Loup kills lefties - usually - he just had some bad luck. Gibbons does a great job with this overall I'd say.

No matter what you do in baseball, some decisions will not work out in your favor. I understand why people are angry that things didn't work out, but I think it's a bit ridiculous to make this out to be an awful, sinful decision that no other team would ever choose. His decision was based on solid logic, what more can you ask?

Spifficus - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#299246) #
It just dawned on me - Gibbons gave Castro 4 more pitchers than most managers would have in that situation. Most managers wouldn't have put a 20 year old rookie in a game with a 1 run lead and a runner on in the bottom of the seventh in Yankee stadium for his second appearance.
Mylegacy - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#299247) #
All Jay's involved during that London, England, November early winter storm in New York - get a mulligan for that game. Even Winnie the Poo would agree that was a "blustery day" for the ages...not fit for man nor beasts.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#299250) #
I disagree with Loup and Castro pitching with 6 unused Relievers. Cecil's just not quite in shape or he's out of shape. Of course, Cecil dear boy, that's strike one. Everyone get the same treatment this year.
Lylemcr - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#299251) #
I like the fact that Castro was tagged hard by Arod and he struck out the next batter. It didn't phase him. Fearless.

I have an idea. Let's bring up all of our 20 year olds! :)
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#299252) #
see?

some people are angry that he's used too few relievers, some are angry he's used too many.

last night was the first save situation heading into the 8th of the year. of course he was going to go with his two most proven and reliably good relievers. the lefty matchups were a bonus reason .
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#299253) #
"I have an idea. Let's bring up all of our 20 year olds! :)"

sounds good!

i also don't think we should be dismissing what these two kids might be doing right now even if its in reluef...if they keep doing this, its incredibly special to have 2 20yr olds be able to do this even in relief. possibly unprecedented. it would mean they are very, very good prospects. elite calibre.
Hodgie - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#299255) #
Well, I must say I had the over on 2 games before the "Gibbons is an idiot" arm-chair managers brigade rolled into town this season. If we are honestly debating momentum and quote, unquote platoon advantages (implying perhaps they don't exist) already it is going to be a long season at DaBox.
Chuck - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#299258) #
When I saw the groundball that Cecil stabbed at, my first thought was "let it go" because it had GIDP written all over it. Had he not stabbed at it, things would probably have ended much better and there'd be nothing but happy campers at this site today.

While I know that beer leagues and MLB are two vastly different animals, having spent many years as a shortstop, I got conditioned to yelling at pitchers to "let it go" when a doubleplay ball was coming and I could see them salivating like Pavlov's dog with a deflection into left field the likely outcome. So I ask in all seriousness: do MLB middle infielders not also sometimes yell out "let it go" to their pitchers, and do these pitchers not sometimes fight their urges and let the ball go by? Is it even possible, given noise levels, for middle infielders to be heard by their pitchers?

Chuck - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#299260) #
A thought on the 20-year olds. Gibbons seems to be in a difficult spot.

There are no other RH relievers who seem to have his trust at the moment. A better script would have had Delabar turning himself around and forcing himself back into a late-inning role. Or a RH reliever of some prominence (even given their volatility) acquired via free agency or trade to be the main RH. I think many of us figured this would be a likely return for Navarro (and may be yet).

So we have migrated from surprise over Castro and Osuna even making the team (given their age, not their performance), to Gibbons having no choice but to use them as the key RHs in the bullpen, until they prove they don't deserve it. That's not an ideal way to ease young arms into the majors.

Given the absence of prominent RHs, Cecil and Loup now move to the top of the food chain (where they are not necessarily miscast, but might be) and any struggles on their part will only exacerbate the bullpen issues, forcing perhaps even more demands onto the two young RHs.

The bullpen has arms a-plenty, but precious little for the high leverage situations. If Sanchez sticks as a starter (and doesn't reprise last year's role), something will have to be done. The Padres are awash in relief pitchers. Perhaps something could be shaken from that tree?

Mylegacy - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#299261) #
OK - so during a monsoon storm some wind blown shit went down - I get it...

How come there is almost nothing, from anybody, about what a wonderful game, in atrocious conditions, Dickey pitched.

The guy who the cold (holding the knuckler grip), and vicious wind (blowing the knuckler all over gods creation) most likely impacted gets nary a grudging pat on the back.

Dicky, you were "marvellous, simply marvellous!" There. Pat. Back. Done. Next...
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#299262) #
he might just want to take advantage of the surprise factor before teams get a book on the kids and/or the bats start getting in 100mph-hitting grooves.

i'm sure he also wants to have his vet longmen all on hand for the two rookie starts coming up next.
Ryan Day - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#299263) #
Loup was always going to come in to face the 3 LHB scheduled in the eighth. No problem there - he's been lethal against lefties for his whole career. Even the RH pinch-hitter only got on via a flukish, wind-blown bloop.

Ultimately, it was just a crummy night to be playing baseball. The only thing that surprised me about Castro & Osuna was that neither one of them died of shock on the way to the mound - I can't imagine either has ever played in that sort of weather.

It's true that the Wind Gods probably saved Castro from that Rodriguez home run, but they did the same thing to Edwin at one point, and, I think, Smoak. There were two wind-blown bloops that barely dropped in, the later of which led to the whole game falling apart.

I don't think it was a bad game, even though it had a lousy result.
Chuck - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#299264) #
i'm sure he also wants to have his vet longmen all on hand for the two rookie starts coming up next.

I agree. Estrada, Hendricks and Redmond are currently sitting tight, as potential impromptu tandem starters for Norris and Sanchez. And when one gets returned to the minors (upon Saunders' return), the other two will stay in those roles unless they themselves get swapped into the starting roles.

So that leaves Cecil, Loup, Hynes, Osuna and Castro as the short men. Only two of these guys is RH, which means lots of high leverage work. This doesn't feel like a tenable situation and I'm sure it won't last.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#299266) #
I am puzzled about the need for three experienced relievers to be long-men as quasi-second pitchers after Norris and Sanchez.  Wouldn't two be more than enough?  I wonder why you wouldn't have Estrada as the 2nd right handed arm at the back end of the pen, with Osuna, Hendricks and Redmond handling the long relief.  My sense is that Gibbons wanted Osuna to get his feet wet. 

I did have a quibble with Gibbons' usage last night.  I don't think that it is a great idea to bring Cecil into a game at a point where a wild pitch is a huge deal because of his reliance on the curveball in the dirt (I guess that would be particularly important in the weather conditions last night).  I'd try pretty hard to keep him out of mid-inning situations- either have him go 2 innings or 1.  You could certainly persuade me that it would have been reasonable to start the 8th inning with Hynes and then bring on Loup if necessary.  This isn't huge- just a different way of keeping options open.

Ryan Day - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#299267) #
Estrada & Hendriks can be quite homer-prone, so probably aren't the best options in a close game. I've always liked Redmond, but I think you can argue Osuna & Castro are better.

I'm not sure I see a problem with bringing in Osuna in a tight situation like that. Even if he blew it (and I'm not convinced he was more likely to blow it than anyone else), it carries a built-in excuse - he gave up a home run to a Hall of Famer at Yankee Stadium. That sort of thing happens.
Mike Green - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#299268) #
dan gordon - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#299269) #
To me, the bottom line is that the back end of the Jays' bullpen isn't good enough. I was saying in the offseason that they needed to add at least 1 and preferably 2 good late inning guys, and they added none. How many 1 and 2 run leads are they going to be trying to protect in the late innings this year - 40, 45? I suspect we are going to see a lot more blown leads in the 8th, 9th inning like we saw last night.
Chuck - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#299271) #
I was saying in the offseason that they needed to add at least 1 and preferably 2 good late inning guys, and they added none.

Imagine what would the back end look like without Castro and Osuna. What RH would take their places? Where is Tanyon Sturtze these days?

uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#299272) #
"I was saying in the offseason that they needed to add at least 1 and preferably 2 good late inning guys, and they added none."

and there's the heart of the outrage - the desire to say look at me i told you so after 2gms.

are jays' managment allowed to say look at me i told you so about castro and osuna and travis and smoak after 2gms?
Ryan Day - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#299273) #
To me, the bottom line is that the back end of the Jays' bullpen isn't good enough. ... I suspect we are going to see a lot more blown leads in the 8th, 9th inning like we saw last night.

But they didn't lose last night's game in a way that supports that theory. Yes, many people argued the Jays needed more relief help, but I don't think anyone was suggesting that the problem was Loup or Cecil.

They lost the game last night with Loup facing several LHB, a situation in which he's been lights-out for his entire career. They turned to Cecil to salvage the situation, which is entirely reasonable given that he's been a very good, often great, reliever for the past two years.

They didn't lose because Castro/Osuna belong in the minors, or because Hendriks and Estrada are prone to throwing batting practice, or even because a lefty-specialist like Loup had to face a RHB. They lost because the two guys almost no one was concerned about couldn't get anyone out.
dan gordon - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#299274) #
Not true - I just don't see Loup and Cecil as a good enough 8th/9th inning duo. Particularly given that they're both lefties. And, it's not a matter of "I told you so", it's looking at the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and seeing a problem in a key area. Your high leverage relievers have a very important role, that, I believe, some people underappreciate.
Chuck - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#299275) #
They lost because the two guys almost no one was concerned about couldn't get anyone out.

Agreed. I think (hope?) that last night's botched game is simply being used as a launchpad for broader questions about the strength of the bullpen in general. I agree that last night's recipe should have worked and usually would have worked. The thinness of the bullpen was not to blame for last night's loss.

That said, a discussion about the worrisome state of the bullpen was going to happen eventually. It would have been preferable, and more illustrative, for it to happen on the heels of Todd Redmond yielding a 9th inning homerun in a tie game rather than the most ideal pitchers floundering when being used in appropriate roles.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#299276) #
Today, the lineup features Steve Tolleson in left-field and Kevin Pillar in center-field.  If Pompey is healthy, I am not a fan. 
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#299277) #
this game is not proof that you were right.
Chuck - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#299278) #
Today, the lineup features Steve Tolleson in left-field

Let's chalk this up to Gibbons trying to get everyone some playing time early on. A utility infielder is probably not the best choice to man the acreage in left field. Once Sabathia is chased in the 4th inning, having yielded his 3rd homerun of the day, Tolleson will be flipped for Pompey.

uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#299280) #
don't mind getting the last man in, especially given it might easily be an offensive upgrade anyways.
dan gordon - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#299281) #
Yes, I'm sure that's why Tolleson is in there. They said on the game broadcast last night that Gibbons wanted to get everybody in a game in the first series. And, he does have a career .802 OPS vs lefties. I'm happy to see Valencia being used properly, after last year's nonsense with him playing a lot against righties, it's good to see him being used in a strict platoon role, and given a good spot in the order. I think you could even use him in the #2 spot, but I know most managers like to keep guys in a regular spot if they can, so Martin stays at #2. Norris gets a very weak looking bottom 4 guys in the NY order.
China fan - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#299282) #
If there's any fault in the bullpen management last night, it might have been the assumption that Cecil was fully ready for the highest-leverage job.  In fact he probably didn't get enough spring innings, due to his injury, and his velocity isn't fully back yet.  The Jays implicitly admitted this today by designating Castro as the likely 9th inning guy, and Cecil as the 7th or 8th inning guy who will be used for specific match-ups.  Cecil might need another couple of weeks before he's back to his 2014 performance level.    Of course Cecil wasn't really the reason for the loss last night, but his lack of full spring preparation didn't help.
China fan - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#299283) #
On the Pompey/Tolleson decision:  the Jays had noticed that Pompey was getting frustrated with one or two hitless games at the end of the pre-season, and perhaps that's carried over to the regular season.  They might want to reduce the pressure on him, let him clear his head for a few innings or a game, and then restore him to the lineup.   And of course Tolleson had a big pre-season, for what that's worth.  (There's also the whole story about him getting fresh laser surgery on his eyes again, although who knows if that's really a factor.)
vw_fan17 - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#299284) #
Old friend JP Arencibia has been released by the Orioles..
Mike Green - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#299285) #
Let's chalk this up to Gibbons trying to get everyone some playing time early on. A utility infielder is probably not the best choice to man the acreage in left field. Once Sabathia is chased in the 4th inning, having yielded his 3rd homerun of the day, Tolleson will be flipped for Pompey.

I think that's what is behind it.  There are however better ways to do it- take out Travis for Tolleson in the 8th or 9th inning maybe. At least Tolleson can play the position.

I checked Tolleson's splits.  Over his major league career, he's hit .149/.204/.178 against RHP in 110 PAs and .291/.341/.460 against LHP in 280 PAs.  Over the same time frame in his minor league career (1300 PAs), he has no platoon differential whatsoever.  The only reasonable thing is to regress his splits (both ways) quite heavily.  That combined with the significant hit to the defence (left-field is larger than right-field in Yankee) make this a bad move, in my opinion. 
dan gordon - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#299286) #
As Sabathia has struggled the last 2 years, his lefty/righty splits have grown very large. He has been hit very hard by righties over that span. With a 9-righty lineup tonight, the Jays have a good chance to do a lot of damage.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#299288) #
I agree with what most of you have said about the eighth inning last night. Statistically it made sense to bring in the lefthander to face lefthanders and Gibbons played it safe and probably smartly doing so. On the other hand, it was a cold night and you have a guy, despite being 20 years old and right-handed, throwing strikes, so in this particular case, why not let him pitch the eighth? Anyway, maybe I'm just saying this because I love to watch Castro pitch. Barring injury, I think he is going to be very special for us. Also I second Mylegacy's comment that Dickey did a great job controlling his knuckleball under difficult conditions and pitching into the 7th inning.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#299289) #
Cecil has been bumped from the closer role. The Jays' front office does like to act fast after a loss. I'm half-surprised no one was DFA'd after the game.
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#299290) #
Mike there's an oddity in tolleson's milb splits...

2014: .281woba vLHP / .340woba vRHP
2013: .391woba vLHP / .353woba vRHP
2012: .385woba vLHP / .313woba vRHP

not sure what happened last year but before that he had a split.
Alex Obal - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#299291) #
If they actually think Castro is their best reliever, making him the closer is... uh... an excellent means to limit his workload with an eye toward September! I will never fault this team for its tendency to think big picture.
JB21 - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#299293) #
I don't think Castro necessarily stole the closer roll from Cecil, I think it's that Cecil's velocity is down significantly in 2015. He was consistently hitting 94 last year, last night he was hitting 87. I believe Gibby essentially said he's going closer by committee.
JB21 - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#299294) #
Kendall Gravemen got lit up today by the Rangers. 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings.
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#299295) #
i feel bad for graveman. oakland mystique led to a little too much hype for him. i still don't quite see how he's gonna make it as an mlb sp.
scottt - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#299296) #
He made it to The Show. Why feel bad for him?
scottt - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#299297) #
I feel bad for Toronto sports fan, being voted second worst city for pro sports behind Cleveland. Should have been first.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#299298) #
Hell of a job by Osuna there. Kid has a great arm, and a bulldog attitude on the mound.
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#299299) #
scares us with the leadoff walk of the #9 guy, then blows 96mph mexican cheese past Arod and Beltran.

not bad, niño.
scottt - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#299300) #
The only long relief today is coming from Esmil Rogers, unless this thing goes extra innings.

uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#299301) #
If my calculations are correct, the Jays pitchers averaged 21.6yrs old per inning this game.

greenfrog - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#299302) #
If this keeps up, it will be tempting for Gibbons to use Osuna and Castro 60-70 times each this season out of the 'pen. Not sure that would be the best thing for their development. Normally you would expect young pitchers with arms of their calibre to be developed as starting pitchers. I get that breaking young pitchers in in the 'pen can work out nicely, but I hope they don't get abused to help management save their jobs in 2015.
uglyone - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#299303) #
Jays Bullpen Thru 1 series:

8.0ip, 11.3k/9, 4.5bb/9, 1.00whip, 3.38era
Mike Green - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#299304) #
I wonder how much input Gibbons gets from Russell Martin on questions of relief pitcher role.  I have a lot of confidence in Martin's judgment (it wouldn't surprise me if he has a managerial career later on- wouldn't it be cool if he ended up as a Blue Jay manager down the road?).

Anyways, Castro passed the Yankee Stadium test with flying colours.  And the Blue Jays won twice, by 5 and by 3, and lost once, by 1.  That's a successful start to the season.  They averaged 5 runs a game in pretty miserable conditions, and that is the key for them.

greenfrog - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#299305) #
Also: it's a big deal for the Jays to win a series in New York. Good job, boys, and a nice start to the season. Now let's go get the O's.
laketrout - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#299306) #
Osuna, Cecil, Castro just may supplant my favourite bullpen trio of '92's Wells, Ward, Henke...
Cracka - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#299307) #
No modern day 20 year old pitcher has appeared in more than 62 games (Terry Forster, 1971) - but there have been several recent examples of 20 year olds that were used heavily during seasons: F. Hernandez 195 IP, Sabathia 182 IP, J. Fernandez 172 IP, Ankiel 176 IP, Kershaw 107 IP... and a slew of 21 year old high usage relievers / closers: Huston Street, Tim Collins, F. Rodriguez, Oscar Villarreal Mitch Williams,...

Castro and Osuna have been the two best bullpen arms now all spring -- might as well use them in the highest leverage situations. They will have to give Castro a day off sometime however...
Lylemcr - Thursday, April 09 2015 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#299308) #
I was impressed how Osuna gave up a hit and then closed the door.

It would be nice to have a good veteran in the pen to anchor those two. I get nervous when I see one of the others come out of the pen.

I want to point out that the Jays nearly swept the Yankees and Bautista was MIA.
92-93 - Friday, April 10 2015 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#299309) #
Marco Estrada was pretty solid as a reliever last year. If the Jays are in a tight game tomorrow they are going to need Estrada, Redmond, and Loup to handle it.

I have no idea what his stuff is like right now or what he's asking for, but Rafael Soriano might be worth more than just the innings he pitches.

rtcaino - Friday, April 10 2015 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#299311) #
"wouldn't it be cool if he ended up as a Blue Jay manager down the road?"

Les Expos?
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