I thought Thole was optioned to AAA?

Yup, Thole to AAA.

congrats colt hynes. let's hope he's more the guy who issued two walks with 58ks in 47 minor league innings in 2013 than the guy who had a whip of 2 in in 22 games with SD that same year.

does this guy have a chance to stick as a LOOGY?

5bb in 3.1ip for sanchez so far.

I'll say it again - I don't think he's ready to start in mlb. I'd give estrada the #5 slot.

isn't Goins. It seems to be Valencia, platooning with Smoak at first.

I don't like the choices they have made here. Cutting Viciedo in order to run an 8-man bullpen seems like making the worst of the situation.

Also, why so concerned about Tolleson? Isn't Goins better? Yes he would be exposed to waivers but really, who cares? He is pretty replaceable.

I wonder if the appropriate choice is Tolleson instead of Valencia. Valencia's a slightly better hitter (strong vs LHP, weak vs RHP), but with less defensive flexibility, basically playing first & third. Tolleson can play first, third, fake SS a bit, and OF. I'm sure he could figure out how to play 1B competently.

Having Tolleson and Goins on the roster would give you a pretty good mix of L/R & offence/defence.

I wonder if the club will rethink the Sanchez to the rotation to the decision. If it were me, I'd give the ball to Redmond.  He has gone 3 innings already this spring, and if you give him a 4 inning outing, he'll be all right when the bell rings.

Apparently Dustin McGowan was released by the Dodgers, for whatever it's worth. He didn't have a particularly good spring, but who knows, maybe he'd return on a minor-league contract.

I wish Colt Hynes good luck. He's had a good spring and earned the job. I'm guessing he's a LOOGY-type? I haven't actually seen him pitch.

I'm not too worried about the short bench, especially early in the season. Viciedo wasn't really worth keeping, based on his spring training and historical performance. I'm sure Tolleson could play SS in a pinch. I'm not that concerned about in-game injuries - if they do happen, then we're more likely to lose the game regardless.

Tolleson's a bit short for 1st base I think. He's listed at 5'11, Valencia is 6'2. I tend to be bullish on Valencia, especially if he's used in a Platoon.

I have more confidence in osuna than sanchez, with no caveats.

Regarding Goins: The Jays aren't going to use Goins as a late-inning defensive replacement for Reyes or Travis, and he certainly can't pinch-hit. If a middle infielder gets hurt, Tolleson can serve as an emergency replacement, and Goins can be on the next plane out.

What I noticed about the 8-man bullpen is that a number of those guys could go multiple innings and/or start a game if needed. It may take a few weeks to figure out who will be in the rotation.

I had never heard of Colt Hynes before now. His numbers look okay, but: if all three of your best short relievers are lefties, who's going to go up there against the big right-handed slugger with the game on the line? Are Castro and Osuna that good?

As for Sanchez, Norris, Osuna, Castro, and maybe even Hutchison: the saying in baseball is that young pitchers will break your heart. It's not yet Opening Day, so I am still optimistic, but I dunno.

Young pitchers can also make you smile and dream of a beautiful future. I think the break your heart saying can work for a lot of pitchers, not just young ones.

can't believe anyone cares about goins.

there's no such thing as a pinch-fielder.

The point about Goins is that he can actually play shortstop.  The club doesn't have anyone else who can.  It's a good idea for Reyes to get a significant number of days off (particularly at home) if the club hopes to keep him healthy for the season, and the idea of Steve Tolleson, shortstop, is not one that I am enthusiastic about.

Well, there are guys who can field in a pinch, like that Ortiz fella in Boston, but I guess some managers do like to bring a guy in late games for better defense. Not sure Reyes or Travis will need a caddy tho.

Reyes is a below average defender (at this point in his career) on two good legs.  If you try to get 150 games from him at shortstop in a year with 1/2 of them on the RC turf, the results will not be pretty.

I was thinking more along the lines of not needing a late inning replacement. We absolutely need somebody to give him a day off here or there.

Osuna today. 1IP 3SO.

Sick. Welcome to the big leagues kid!

Rowdy Tellez homers in his first PA in a Blue Jay uniform.  It's only spring, but that's a good start.  

The opening day roster is just that - the opening day roster - I'm not concerned as I expect it will change continuously as it does every year - when it's time to start resting Reyes, the jays will a more capable backup, be it Goins/Izturis/Diaz or somebody else - the 8 man pen won't last - it's time to get excited about the possibilities, there will be enough time to stress during the season.

Regarding Santiago, lots of veterans are being released to avoid the 100 grand salary for keeping them at AAA - the unintended consequence of trying to get a qualifying veteran a decent minor league salary - I think teams can resign them later for less.

The bottom 4-5 spots on the opening day roster means very little. To put things in perspective, the Jays made 11 roster changes by May 1st last year:

+Kratz/-Janssen; +Diaz/-Reyes; +Walden/-Jeffress; +Wagner/-Walden; +Happ/-Izturis; +Kawaskaki/-; +Franciso/-Lind; +Jenkins/-Wagner; +Getz/-Goins; +Tolleson/-Diaz; +Gose/-Sierra...

And really, this continued all season long. It's a long season... the team we'll see next Monday may be very different from the team we see by mid-Summer.

The 25 man roster is out of step with the current reality of baseball. Back in the 60's, 70's it was fine. Teams had a 4-man rotation and a 6 man bullpen and there was no DH, so a 25 man roster meant you had 7 position players on the bench. Some teams went with an 11-man pitching staff, and a 6-man bench. I'd like to see the rosters expanded to 27 players - the 25 man limit just doesn't make sense any more. I know it would add costs for the teams, but the extra players wouldn't be big salary guys, and look at how much more the teams are getting on the TV deal now.

Osuna made the team. Sigh.

Also, why so concerned about Tolleson?

I read a piece today referring to Tolleson as an outfielder and thought that was awfully telling. On this outfield-thin team, Tolleson's new lease on life is indeed as a 4th outfielder.

I think Goins is ultimately on this team, especially since Reyes can't play every day (and will be injured at some point). Saunders, or another legitimate outfielder, will chase Tolleson away.

What we're seeing now won't last for very long.

Be Careful - I remember when the Great Balbino Fuenmayor homered in his first at bat (think it was a hall of fame game or some sort) in a showcase exhibition game & the Fanbase became delirious with anticipation - it is encouraging that reports are that Tellez has lost weight & is in "the best shape of his life" and he did have an encouraging 2nd half last year.

Regarding Santiago, lots of veterans are being released to avoid the 100 grand salary for keeping them at AAA

And this is fine evidence why ownership will not be in a big hurry to expand rosters to 26 or 27 players. There are times when nickels get thrown around like they're manhole covers.

Yes, the 25 man roster doesn't make sense anymore - I'm surprised that the union (& media) hasn't made a bigger push about this - yes, it will cost more but in the last decade the players share of revenue has reportedly fallen from 58%(tops in the big 4 sports) to 42%(lowest of the big 4) - and people wanted a salary cap!

An 8 man pen. OK fine. Assume Cecil closes & Loup is one setup man. I like them both because they are good. The long men are many, so I am okay with that. Who else is setting up? I always assumed, was quite sure, it was Castro & Osuna. But some have suggested low leverage roles to avoid shell shock or something.
I am sure the answer will come quickly.

The always ever-changing 25-Man Roster comes out and people start complaining. It's liable to change at least once when Saunders returns around the 13th, again when Izturis returns. Until the Jays are playing Regular Season Games, it doesn't matter and might still change.

It is true.  There are many positives from spring training 2015.  The development of Norris, Pompey and Travis has been plain to see, and it is great that all three have significant roles alongside the seasoned core of the club.  I think this club is going to lead the league in runs scored and field a decent defence, which should make for interesting times at the RC. You can call the club Big Blue if you like.

I would be hesitant to raise the roster to 27 players. After all who wants to see a 10 man bullpen?

I was just thinking the same. Raising to 26 seems like a great idea, but I could see teams adding on yet another pitcher. Potentially restricting the numbers of pitchers could be an idea, but tough to manage.

I don't even want to see an 8-man bullpen.

I see a restriction on number of pitchers or other rules coming into play soon, especially if rosters expand (as I suspect the players union will push for).  Put in a rule that each pitcher stays in until they allow a run or finish an inning.  Thus killing a lot of the Loogy use that goes on now.  As a fan I'd love to see that type of rule put into place. 

You could always just create a 3 day NA spot akin to the DL. This would allow you to rest relievers who are overworked without having to worry about optioning a veteran.

I haven't really wrapped my head around how much of the Chad Jenkins shuttling that would prevent, but it certainly would prevent a situation like last year where we couldn't recall him.

We don't have a minor league thread active, so I think that I'll post this here.  The more I think about Rowdy Tellez, the more I like him.  He apparently plays first base very well defensively.  He's got good control of the strike zone and he can hit the ball out of sight.  I imagine that he'll start the season in Lansing, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they skip a level with him. 

Somebody mentioned Fuenmayor's name in relation to Tellez.  Fuenmayor was a big guy who could also hit the ball out of sight, but did not have control of the strike zone and wasn't an effective defender.

Mike, I am also waiting for the minor league season to start.

agreed on rowdy mike. kid had elite zone control even when he was struggling the first month or two. once his expected lighttower power showed up in the 2nd half, he was lights out dominant.

couple of questions for everyone:

1. what are your projections for our rookies?

me....

The Star: Daniel Norris. As much hype as he's had he still might be underrated. I think he's going to a very good SP, right away.

The Solid: Pompey and Travis. I think both will be solid everyday starters, right in around average for their positions.

The Flop: Aaron Sanchez. No matter how hard I squint I can't see a road to success for him as an SP this year. He'll need a sudden drastic improvement in some area to keep his head above water this year. he might be successful in relief, but even that's no lock. I think he's my least favorite of our 7 Young SP Studs and I honestly look at him as better trade bait than pitcher.

The Good but Irrelevant: Castro and Osuna. I think they both might be fine in the pen. or maybe one is great and the other flops. either way we should get some useful relief out of the pair but the overall impact won't be huge.


2. which prospects do you think are significantly over or underrated?

me.....

OVER: Sanchez, Nay, Labourt, Tirado
UNDER: Travis, Jansen, Urena, Tellez

not sure I see much mlb success from the first group other than maybe in relief.

on the other hand, I think the second group all has legit good odds at becoming quality starters.

In an effort to be positive (WTF- it's April Fools Day), I won't comment on prospects that I am concerned about.  The minor league position players I like are the same as uglyone's- Urena, Tellez and Jansen.  I also like Lane Thomas and Dwight Smith Jr.. The system is in pretty good shape, but It would be nice to have another middle infielder or two. 

Among the major leaguers, I am most interested to see how Pompey develops.  He and Norris probably have the widest reasonably possible set of outcomes of any of the rookies.

Absolutely agree on the prospects to watch. Might add Mitch Nay to the list. I'm hoping for a power surge from him. Of course, the biggest wildcard is Anthony Alford who barely has a half season of PA's if you include the Aussie league. I'm curious as to where he starts.

This will be a fun year as a Jays fan - tons of minor leaguers who are trying to get to the near ML ready stage, a few graduating to the majors, a good ML team fighting to make the playoffs.  The team talking of blowing the budget in the IFA and maybe the draft as well.  What more could you ask for on an entertainment level?

Did Pillar take any reps at first base? Expecting his bat to be a bit too hot to take out of the lineup when Saunders returns.

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"Did Pillar take any reps at first base? Expecting his bat to be a bit too hot to take out of the lineup when Saunders returns."

Agreed with that ayjackson. My money's on Pillar over Pompey to maintain an everyday position in the outfield this year.

I'm excited about this youth movement, but wonder if it doesn't make it much more likely that there is some sort of fire sale mid-season if the team plays poorly.

looks like it is just a choice between goins or hendriks now.

this puts me in a corner - I like hendriks, don't like goins, hate keeping guys who haven't earned it due to no options, and really hate 8 man bullpens.

sticking with principles, I'd risk losing hendriks and keep goins.

(though really, kawasaki is probably the better bench if option).

If the team refuses to take Reyes out for defense when they are ahead and he isn't likely to receive another at bat, I agree that Kawasaki is a better bench option than Goins.

The Pompey-to-AAA scenario if and when Saunders gets healthy is not unlikely. Pillar has the MiLB experience that Pompey doesn't have.

With options on EE & Bautista I don't think any sort of firesale is likely, but boy could they load up on youth if they chose to do so.

numbers say kawasaki is a perfectly fine defensive ss (721inn, +2drs, +1.9uzr/150).

for ogator:

Jon Heyman ✔ @JonHeymanCBS
Ramon Santiago will sign back w/ jays. Off to hot start (5 for 12) before suffering broken collarbone @Enrique_Rojas1 on it

one more goodie - apparently Hoffman wascworking at 95-98mph in a minor league game today. had a tidy 123 inning to boot.

"With options on EE & Bautista I don't think any sort of firesale is likely, but boy could they load up on youth if they chose to do so."

I wasn't thinking of Bautista being moved, but Dickey, Buehrle, and possibly EE could all fetch a nice return if it's decided that the team needed to accelerate the youth movement.

I think an intriguing sleeper might be Christian Lopes - he was well-regarded as a HS 7th round pick in 2011, looked great in rookie ball in 2012, decent in Lansing 2013 and Dunedin 2014 with great BB/K ratios. 22 years old in AA this year after absolutely dominating Australian winter ball with an OPS of 1.002.

no idea what the quality of that league is.

Bautista is 2 years older than Encarnacion, so you'd think any firesale that extends to EE would involve Bautista too.

Kawasaki being an acceptable SS is why I would rather he be on the bench than Goins - on a day you are actually giving Reyes a day off, it's nice to have a functional bat at SS. If they were constantly removing Reyes for a defensive advantage late in games you would want that advantage to be as large as possible (and go with Goins > Muni), but they don't appear willing to do that to Reyes.

turns out Smoak has had a pretty good spring after all. OPS over .800 now.

92-93...I kinda agree....but even the jays firmly committing to replacing reyes everyb9th inning wouldn't be a good enough reason to bring goins along, imo.

I don't know that Kawasaki can be counted on to be a significantly better hitter than Goins in 2015.  He is getting older.  He was a passable hitter last year, with 30% of his balls in play being line drives.  That's a difficult thing to replicate at his age.  In any event, he is still likely capable of being a serviceable replacement shortstop for 15-20 games a season.  I am not wild about Goins either, but you do need somebody who can fill the role.

If Ryan Goin's Spring Training Stats are an indication of his new found ability to Hit, he's going to be up as soon as possible. If he shows in AAA Buffalo exactly what he's showing now in Spring Training, then we have something to really discuss. I just didn't see enough of his ABs to judge whether or not he's made changes.

If Ryan Goins Spring Training Stats are just the magic of Spring, then that's a whole different story. If he can't show in AAA Buffalo anything close to what he's shown in Spring Training, then we have nothing to discuss. He comes up if it's D.L. relief but not before need.

Steve Tolleson had Offseason Laser Surgery to correct vision problems. Strange thing happened, he's hitting RHPs better, not well, just much better. To me that says he shouldn't need to be platooned. That's says he'll be lost on waivers if waived at any time. And that might present a problem, just not now.

Goins has a bit of a history of initially struggling badly when promoted, but then figuring it out. In his first crack at Lansing, he hit .198, then in his second try, .308. His first shot in Dunedin produced a .205 average, then .286 in his second. It wasn't as pronounced in Buffalo, but he did boost his average from .257 to .284 in his second AAA season. He's only managed .213/.231/.300 so far in the big leagues, but he may be able to make a significant improvement on that.

sticking with principles, I'd risk losing hendriks and keep goins.

The crunch is brought on by the notion that Castro and Osuna should be on the opening day roster. I don't agree with that, but accepting that that's how things are I'd keep Hendriks for the time being. I think he's an asset, and I can't see Goins getting any playing time. Unless he takes it from Tolleson, in which case you wonder why Tolleson is on the roster.


The Pompey-to-AAA scenario if and when Saunders gets healthy is not unlikely. Pillar has the MiLB experience that Pompey doesn't have.

But if you do that, do you bring up Gindl? I can't see sticking with just 3 outfielders on the roster for very long.


I am not wild about Goins either, but you do need somebody who can fill the role.

Indeed. Unfortunately, in the bag of bad options is Izturis and his $3M. Does the "going with the best players" philosphy still hold when it necessitates eating that contract?

I'm really glad to see the jays try to fill holes internally through promotion. I have been pounding the table for years that they should do this the way the Twins do. Every minor league guy will be busting his butt cause he thinks he has a chance to make it.

The Pompey-to-AAA scenario if and when Saunders gets healthy is not unlikely. Pillar has the MiLB experience that Pompey doesn't have.

On the other hand, it doesn't look like the Jays see Pillar as a real CF option - he's never played there full-time. Granted, some of that is likely because he was on teams with Anthony Gose.

I could see Pillar taking over in CF if Pompey tanks. But otherwise, I think they'll both stay - Saunders is coming back from a knee injury and no longer has any cartilege, so he's not going to be playing every single day.

I wonder if Saunders might see some time at first base this season.  Hopefully, Smoak is on fire to start the season, but if not, moving Saunders to first base temporarily is one solution.  If they do, it wouldn't be the first time that a rehabbing outfielder played first base for a season in mid-career. 

Does the "going with the best players" philosphy still hold when it necessitates eating that contract?

I sometimes think that the "sunk cost" phrase is a polite alternative to a cruder account of digestion and excretion.  Anyways, it does pain me a bit.  I supported the Izturis signing, as I thought that he would be a serviceable infield backup for the duration of the contract.  It hasn't turned out that way unfortunately. 

And so it starts: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/blue-jays-sign-felix-doubront.html . A.A. will be adding anyone useful, with upside/value.

In a bit of a surprising move, the Reds outrighted this guy

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/reds-outright-sam-lecure.html

 

Worth picking up and sending down one of the young arms?

Lecure cleared waivers and looks like a guy who would be worthwhile to have if he refuses the AAA assignment from the Reds (the Reds are on the hook for his $1.2 mil salary).

Actually LeCure has a 2yr/3.05m contract which is likely why he cleared waivers and is unlikely to refuse the AAA assignment - if he does, then he becomes a FA, forfeiting his GTD. contract - unlikely.

John, Jester's link has him at 1.9 million in 2015, but I guess that's moot if the Reds are on the hook for him?  I'm not sure how that works, is he not Reds property ala Thole?

Arizona is on the verge of unloading Trevor Cahill to Atlanta - even if they have to eat half of his 12m salary, it could free up enough money to afford Navarro.

John Lott on twitter linked to this fine piece by Joey Bautista on the realities for prospects from the DR.  Rogers, what say you to Joey's suggestion that all teams should offer a program similar to the Diamondbacks' one which offers prospects a chance to complete their high school education while in the baseball camps?

Great article by Bautista.  Makes one hope the Jays resign him to a career deal so he is a Jays to the end and employ him in the front office as well to help with players from the Caribbean.  Education and English training is something that should be step 1 with all those kids just to save time with coaches if nothing else.

Atlanta released Wandy Rodriguez. THAT is the pitcher the Jays should sign.insert Wandy, shift Sanchez to bullpen, send Osuna to minors. Lose Hendriks, start with Goins.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/braves-release-wandy-rodriguez.html

Baltimore has waived Ryan Webb, who seems to be ahead of McLure and has AL East stats to boot. He's likely to reject assignment, leaving Baltimore on the hook to pay him. In other words: league minimum. Thing is, he's a long relief type. I'd say as a ground ball guy, he's far preferable to Hendriks in Rogers Centre.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/ryan-webb-clears-outright-waivers.html

In other news, how's this body blow for the Twins...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/ervin-santana-suspended-80-games-for-ped-use.html

Wandy Rodriguez is a bit of a surprise - owed $13 mil this year.  I remember the Jays chasing him years ago both in trades and as a free agent.  Lucky they didn't get him then as he has been horrible the last 2 years - just 89 1/3 IP.  Sky high HR/9.  Not a good fit in the Rogers Centre.

Santana is another example of the dangers of free agency.  PED use - Stanozolol, sounded familiar to me and probably anyone else who remembers 1988 and Ben Johnson.

Ryan Webb being paid just shy of $3 mil this year after a 101 ERA+ last year 2.2 BB/9 6.8 K/9, 0.4 HR/9 - looks like a good fit here.  Plus it is always fun to have your opponents pay for your players.

Don't think Wandy is owed 13m, the MLBTR article says he would've gotten 2m if he made the team. He'd be an interesting pickup at that price.

Wandy R. has been hurt, but seems to have recovered. Spring training reports show promise, and at $2M, it might be worth a flyer. Worst case: Buffalo depth who may make further progress during season.

Agree Webb is a good fit. Question is whose spot he takes.

I see my problem - The $13 mil was last year on B-R.  They didn't list this years salary so when I just checked the bottom line I should've checked the year.  Boy did the Pirates blow a lot on him over 3 years ($36 mil).  Talk about a bad deal that Houston signed.

with Goins down and Hendricks coming to Toronto, the 25 man is set.  The position side of things played out as expected with the only wildcard being who won the 2b job.  Thole had no chance IMO once Martin showed he could catch Dickey and Navarro was revealed as a pretty minor trade chip.

But the pitching? who saw a bullpen of Cecil, Loup and Colt freakin' Hynes from the left side, with Castro, Osuna, Redmond, Estrada and Hendricks from the right?  I had Jenkins, Delabar, wilton lopez and Rasmussen ahead of most of these guys on my depth chart, and Sanchez at the back end of the pen.  I had a sense that Castro might make the team during the stretch drive but never saw it happening to start the year.  Certainly fun to follow a spring training where jobs were actually up for grabs!

The Arik Sikula's of the world have to be encouraged, at least.  Hynes is a career reliever with one failed stint starting in Tucson of the PCL, which I assume is pitcher unfriendly in the way that vegas is.  I'd be pretty nervous as a minor league pitcher in the PCL.  Same for Bo Schultz, who's minor league numbers are pretty inflated by a stint starting in Reno.  I expect to see him at some point this year as well.   I always enjoy when a minor league soldier gets a shot - so rarely does the shot really launch a career, but my fingers are crossed for these guys. 

the pen is an  interesting story to follow - Fangraphs predicted us to be the 29th best pen according to WAR (which i know is not the best metric, but sheesh, 29th).  So Bauxites, any bold predictions for this group?  Will the kids emerge like Sanchez last year?  will the vets with options like Jenkins and Delebar have any impact?  what about the fringe AAAA types like West, Hynes, Guilmet, Lopez and Schultz?  do any homegrown relief prospects like Tepera, McFarland and Rasmussen make a difference?  do we trade for a paplebon?

I don't have any predictions except I expect quite a few different guys to pitch out of the pen this season. I'm pulling for Colton Hynes though. After being picked in the 31st round of the draft and bouncing around the minors for 8 years, he has defied expectations by just making the opening roster. In other news, I see Dustin McGowan has signed with the Phillies.

The pen looks fine with lots of depth stashed down, but it wouldn't be abnormal for Cecil and Loup to have an off year pitching mostly in high leverage situations.

I don't know what will happen with Navarro. A slow start will make him just about untradeable. He could catch Norris at Yankee stadium or Hutch at Baltimore and then Hutch again on the 23rd.

Here are fangraph's projections for the Blue Jays, which add up to an 82-80 record.  I have a different view from the projections.  The key differences are as follows:

• I expect the club to face more RHSP than expected, with minor adverse effects on Martin, Encarnacion, Bautista and Donaldson and significant positive effects for Smoak, Saunders and Pompey
• The park changes for Donaldson, Saunders and Smoak will have more positive effects than projected by fangraphs
• The fangraphs BABIP projections for Travis and Pompey are very low taking into account batted ball profile, speed and pop
• The defensive projection for Pompey is far too low
• The pitching projections (and not just for the Blue Jays) fail to take into account the difference between pitching in the rotation and in the bullpen- if you have the same figures for a particular pitcher in the two roles, you are doing something wrong (this is particularly important for a pitcher like Castro- the projections essentially use his starting pitcher performance to project what he would do in a major league bullpen without any regard for the difference in role).
• No account is taken in fangraphs' projections for Martin's framing ability.  This should show up in better projections for starting pitcher FIP all the way around; I think that it is particularly important for a pitcher like Norris, and will lead to both better performance and more efficiency than would normally be anticipated..

So, without further ado, Green's projections for the hitters:

Player	Green's PA/Fgraphs PA	Green's slash	Fangraph's slash	Green's D/Fgraphs D
Martin	518/518	.236/.330/.390	.239/.338/.404	+8/+6
Smoak	440/315	.245/.330/.440	.239/.317/.407	-3/0
Travis	520/455	.275/.320/.400	.251/.296/.389	+2/0
Reyes	595/595	.284/.338/.410	.284/.338/.410	-9/-7
Donaldson	650/630	.270/.350/.500	.265/.339/.470	+10/+10
Saunders	420/455	.255/.335/.460	.246/.322/.420	+2/+4
Pompey	550/455	.265/.325/.380	.237/.295/.352	+10/-1
Bautista	625/665	.260/.375/.500	.266/.380/.513	-2/+1
Encarnac'n	615/595	.260/.350/.500	.268/.357/.512	-1/-1
Pillar	350/490	.275/.300/.400	.265/.297/.397	+2/0
Valencia	245/245	.246/.284/.402	.246/.284/.402	+2/0
Navarro	280/335	.264/.315/.398	.264/.315/.398	+1/+1
Toll'n/Goins/etc	355/420	.225/.280/.310	.230/.290/.327	+1/-1

 And for the pitcher's:

Pitcher	Green's SP inn./F'graphs SP inn	Green's SP ERA/F'graphs SP ERA	Green's RP inn/F'Graphs  RP inn	Green's RP ERA/F'graphs RP ERA
Buehrle	204/204	3.85/4.10
Dickey	209/209	3.95/4.08
Hutch	185/167	3.75/4.14
Norris	185/139	3.50/4.26
Sanch	60/150	4.85/4.54	50/20	2.25/4.54
Redm	80/0	4.50	55/30	3.35/3.90
Estr	70/38	4.40/4.17	40/55	3.85/4.17
Santan	35/65	4.50/4.31
Cecil			65/65	2.50/3.29
Loup			65/65	3.35/3.57
Castro			60/45	3.25/4.84
Osuna			40/40	4.50/4.61
Hynes			50/35	3.70/3.92
Hend			30/30	3.70/4.08

These are not my subjective opinions- I think that Pompey will do considerably better than .265/.325/.380 (for instance).  What I have tried to do is to incorporate what I know about a player's abilities (so for instance, f'graphs is using a .299 BABIP projection for Pompey and given his bunting ability, speed and pop and his BABIP in the minors last year, this does not seem to me to be reasonable).  Obviously, there is some element of subjectivity.

Ack. Typo alert: not "pitcher's" but "pitchers".  Dewey, please forgive me.  With the coincidence of both Easter and Passover, maybe the forgiveness for this almost mortal sin will come easier than at other times. 

And one more typo.  In the chart, I have Redmond with 55 relief innings for me and 30 for fangraphs.  The figures should be reversed.

Mike, don't leave us in suspense -- how many wins are you predicting for the Jays this year, based on your individual player projections?

well done Mike, very thoughtful stuff and I echo China!

Typos are a fact of life, Mike.  No need for any concern.  It’s other, sloppier slips that bother my debilitated old brain. 

Nonetheless, I am singularly upbeat about the Jays this season.  I look for Donaldson to have a monster year, in tandem with Jose and EE.  The pitching is more precarious; and I was gobsmacked by Stroman’s injury.  Still ... still.  Martin will help, a lot.  Perhaps it’s the time of year, or senility, but I am irrationally optimistic about this season.  Based on absolutely no stats.  If we can control Baltimore, we can win the A.L. East.   Just before Harper is voted off to his deeply-deserved oblivion.  It’s going to be a fine year.

Objectively-770 runs scored,  690 runs allowed and 89 wins.  Subjectively- 800 runs scored, 690 runs allowed and 92 wins.  I think that the offence is going to get deep into bullpens more often than usual and do better all around.

Based on absolutely no stats.

Pardon my ignorance, but isn't this a sentence fragment?

Thanks, Mike!  Intriguing prediction, and I have no reason to quibble with your analysis -- I think it's much better the Fangraphs projection. But in a way, I think you're exposing the flaws of a lot of projection systems that we tend to rely on too much.  They've all got the weakness of ignoring fundamental data about players and performances that aren't picked up from statistics alone.

If healthy, I think we should hit more HRs and steal more bases this year compared to last year. I hope I am right.

I agree that the projections do not seem to do a good job taking into account the move to the Rogers Centre. That is especially odd for Fangraphs considering their own Tony Blengino had this to say about the Donaldson trade. With an appropriate amount of injury luck, it is not hard to envision the Jays scoring 800+ runs this season.