In the Estrada ankle injury link above, Gibbons was quoted indicating that Estrada would likely get a start Tuesday or Wednesday but he hasn't pitched since the injury.  Two pitcher's fielding practice injuries in one spring.  Blah.

The DL is going to help the Jays with their roster squeeze.  Saunders will start on the DL, and I wonder if Estrada might also start on the DL?   That would allow the Jays to keep Drabek or Hendriks on the roster for a week or two, and then sneak them through waivers. 

With Saunders starting on the DL, who will be the 4th outfielder and who will be the starting 2B?  There is some speculation that the Jays could begin the season with Tolleson and Goins, rather than Travis, because it gives them more flexibility and requires fewer roster spots.  Goins can back up Reyes, while Tolleson can be the platoon 2B and the emergency LF if there's an injury in the outfield. (Whoops, will this speculation incur the wrath of Jonny German for daring to suggest that Tolleson can play an adequate OF in an emergency?  I think Jonny's point was that Tolleson can't play CF.  But he should be okay at LF for a couple of innings in an emergency, surely?  Since Pillar can slide over to CF if necessary?   Tolleson has played 76 innings in the outfield in the majors, and 113 games in the outfield in the minors, so LF shouldn't be a problem for a few innings in an emergency.)

To be honest, Tolleson probably wouldn't be needed in the OF unless there's an unexpected mid-game injury.  We'll likely see Bautista, Pompey and Pillar for almost every inning for the first couple weeks (except for blow-outs), and then Saunders will be back.

It's just a hunch, but I'm thinking that Smoak will make the team, along with Navarro, so the Jays will have three options for 1B and DH and pinch-hitting.  So if they demote Thole, the bench becomes:  Navarro, Valencia and Goins and/or Tolleson.  Then the only decision is whether Travis could still benefit from a couple weeks at the AAA level, to give the Jays a better chance of keeping the useful Tolleson at the start of the season (and perhaps sneaking him through waivers later).  If the Jays decide that Travis can start the season in the minors, it gives them an extra roster spot for a legitimate 4th outfielder (Gindl?) or for Thole, or even for an 8th reliever.

I know everyone loves Travis, but from a roster perspective it might be best to start him in the minors.  Unless he is clearly superior to any other 2B option.  If he's deemed the best 2B, then yes, start him in the majors, and keep Goins and Tolleson on the roster as back-ups for the infield and outfield.   I'm just not completely convinced by his spring-training hot streak yet.  He's still a player without any experience above the AA level -- can he make the leap straight to the majors?

Here's John Sickels' item from today reviewing various observations he has made about Travis over the years.

Easy to see the Jays leaving Travis down for a couple of weeks (gaining an extra year of control) so Tolleson can be kept in Jays hands.  Goins/Tolleson mix at 2B for 2 or 3 weeks might make sense in that respect but if Travis hits in AAA then get him back up fast. 

Goins/Tolleson for April seems sensible - let Travis get some AAA experience & delay him for a year while giving the youngsters in the rotation excellent defence.

Mike Green - your Johnny Ray comparison for Travis hit the nail on the head although I hope Travis has a few more homers. You must be happy that Kendall Graveman's excellent spring has probably won him a rotation spot in a park that suits him perfectly - just wondering - if we had offered the A's Lawrie, Nolin & Sanchez, keeping Graveman & Barreto , would the A's have accepted? , would the Jays fanbase have gone nuts? (not advocating this idea)

I know everyone loves Travis, but from a roster perspective it might be best to start him in the minors.  Unless he is clearly superior to any other 2B option.  If he's deemed the best 2B, then yes, start him in the majors, and keep Goins and Tolleson on the roster as back-ups for the infield and outfield.   I'm just not completely convinced by his spring-training hot streak yet.  He's still a player without any experience above the AA level -- can he make the leap straight to the majors?

It's not about loving Travis. It's about hating Izturis and Goins who are both in the negative WAR territory. Travis is a replacement level player.  ( about 1.5 WAR on a full year) The only question about him is regarding his ability to hit and it's easily answered. He's a sub-average defender who doesn't run the bases particularly well. He has no skills to hone at AAA, so the only things that can happen there are negative (injury, slump, etc...) and the extra year of control is not a factor. 

I'm mostly surprised that the roster is turning out almost exactly as I hoped thanks mostly to the great performance of the kids. sanchez/estrada swapping roles and castro beating out hendriks might be the only differences from what I was hoping for.

as a sidenote - its funny to me that team/media keep labelling sanchez the #4 and norris just beating out estrada for the #5 slot.....when norris has been far better than sanchez this spring and was last year as well.

I have quite a bit of faith in norris' ability to be at least a competent mlb sp this year...and i have very little faith in Sanchez doing the same. I'd hope that he does well but I anticipate struggles for sanchez, likely enough to push him back to the bullpen. I can't be the only one who feels this way?

lost in all the great performances this spring is that sanchez actually hasn't been all that effective. not many strikeouts and an era near 5. of course he still has looked good doing it, but that's never been a problem for him. I will say in his favour, though, that the low walk totals are encouraging. if he can keep that under control then he might be ok.

scott - replacement level would be 0war. 1.5-2.0war like travis projects to is more aptly described as "league average".

ach, sorry in advance for the triple post but I just noticed that your stats don't include today's games, John. mlb.com updates them live now:

ss reyes 1.097
c martin .706
rf bautista 1.215
dh En'cion .250
3b Donaldson 1.084
lf saunders ---
1b smoak .647
2b travis .904
cf pompey .769

ut valencia .884
of pillar .852
if izturis .451
c navarro .601

ut tolleson .866
of gindl .999
if goins .790
c thole .727

ut barton .606
of viciedo .569
if kawasaki .984
c jimenez .152



Dickey 12.0ip, 7k, 0.83wh, 1.50er
Hutchison 10.0ip, 5k, 0.90wh, 1.80er
Buehrle 9.2ip, 5k, 1.14wh, 2.79er
Norris 18.2ip, 21k, 1.07wh, 2.41er
Sanchez 13.0ip, 7k, 1.23wh, 4.85er

Castro 9.0ip, 8k, 0.33wh, 0.00er
Osuna 9.2ip, 8k, 0.83wh, 0.00er
Hendriks 6.0ip, 7k, 1.50wh, 4.50er
Estrada 7.2ip, 4k, 1.70wh, 9.39er


Cecil ---
Loup 5.0ip, 1k, 1.20wh, 3.60er
Delabar 7.0ip, 9k, 1.14wh, 3.84er
Redmond 9.0ip, 4k, 0.78wh, 2.00er
Estrada 7.2ip, 4k, 1.70wh, 9.39er
Castro 9.0ip, 8k, 0.33wh, 0.00er
Hynes 7.2ip, 7k, 0.26wh, 0.00er
Osuna 9.2ip, 8k, 0.83wh, 0.00er
Hendriks 6.0ip, 7k, 1.50wh, 4.50er

thanks for that sickels link, mike. he made a comment there that caught my attention - travis had an oblique injury to start last year. I didn't know that.

to be honest I was a bit skeptical on travis because while he was phenomenal in 2013 (near 170wrc+ at two levels is just incredible even if he was a bit old for the levels), his 2014 numbers were only decent (124wrc+) especially since he was 23 in AAA.

but that sickels comment made me doublecheck....and it seems like there's some good news here.

travis played 4gms in april before going down with an oblique injury for about a month. he came back in mid may and struggled for his first week or so back. On may 26 he had a total of only 50ab and a horrendous .294ops and -27wrc+.

but a week or so after returning, he exploded. from may 27th to the end of the year he had 350ab and posted an .891ops and 147wrc+....which are once again great numbers, even for a guy a year old for the level.

that is really encouraging stuff. that's an explanation for his just ok numbers last year that I can believe in....and a healthy performance which really does indicate mkb potential.

that just made my day. sweet.

A hat tip to Dan Gordon who, when the Travis-Gose trade was made, pointed out Travis' improvement after the oblique injury last year.

"Travis is a replacement level player. ( about 1.5 WAR on a full year) The only question about him is regarding his ability to hit and it's easily answered. He's a sub-average defender who doesn't run the bases particularly well. He has no skills to hone at AAA..."

Exactly what are you basing such a definitive statement upon? Surely not your own extensive scouting experience and observation of Travis? Such an assessment contradicts pretty much every scouting report and projection for the player, which in summary is a league average hitter with league average defense.

It's amazing how confidence people have in predicting exactly what sort of ML player Travis already is, quantifying his 2015 batting average, HR and SB totals, total WAR, etc. He has no ML experience, but he's already an average ML hitter (or an above-average hitter), an average fielder (or a below-average fielder) and a 1.5 WAR player. Remarkable.

I'm happy to see that he's had a good spring training and that he could end up being the solution at 2B.

Never make assumptions on what a player is, just based on what's available to us. We are generally the last people to find out anything.

Thanks, Mike. The other player who got off to a terrible start in the minors last year was Pillar. He wasn't hurt, like Travis, but I suspect he was disappointed at not making the big team, and he started out 5 for 44. After that point, he was one of the best hitters in his league. That, plus the very rapid rise from rookie ball in 2011 to the big leagues in 2013, give me a lot of optimism for Pillar.

I really liked the Travis acquisition when the trade happened, and I think he's going to have a very good big league career, maybe along the lines of Howie Kendrick, with a few more walks thrown in.

As Blue Jay/Baseball fans we see it all too often, Players returning from the D.L. before their time. Missing just fifteen games must disrupt a player's timing, it's impossible to not be disrupted. 30 ABs for hitters should be the minimum needed to regain timing. Five games/5.0+ IP for Relievers should be their minimums. But more awkwardly, three Starts/16.0+ IP should be the Starter's minimums.

With more time lost, you almost need to repeat Spring Training to get good enough timing back. Almost all Teams rush their players back because their replacements (AKA: Depth) are less than adequate. It remains to be seen how that works this Spring/Year.

Holy cow, if Travis turns into Howie Kendrick + some more walks that would be amazing. I have hope that he'll be solid but I doubt we'll be that lucky.

Clarifying the last comment, I have hope he can be a solid player, but doubt we'll be lucky enough for him to turn into a Kendrick who walks.

I'm just confused by the idea that 1.5 WAR is 'replacement level'.

Do you know what WAR stands for?

(as opposed to 'what is it good for')

Delabar optioned to minor league camp today. I'm very skeptical of this move. He walked 1 guy in 7 innings this spring, striking out 9. What more could you ask from him to show he's back to form?

If the point is to make a spot in the pen for Drabek, in the hopes of sneaking him through waivers in mid-April, it's a bad idea. Drabek is not an asset.

If the point is to make a spot in the pen for Hendriks, in the hopes of sneaking him through waivers in mid-April, it's a bad idea. Castro should be sent down instead.

If the point is to make a spot in the pen for Osuna, it's a bad idea. The team is already placing three eggs in the Very Young Pitching basket, which is at least 2 more than ideal.

Maybe the club believes that Hendriks is a better pitcher in the relief role right now, Jonny.  I haven't seen Delabar, but perhaps he's been much more over the plate without as much movement and he needs to make a further adjustment to be effective. 

I confess that I still hold out hope that the club will decide to move Sanchez back to the bullpen, and maybe start Redmond in the 5 slot to begin the season.  Redmond would probably have an ERA of about 4.5 in the rotation and give you 6 decent enough innings most times out.  I don't believe that Sanchez is likely to do better in the rotation, but that he would be much more valuable than Redmond in the pen.  To Jonny's point about gambling on young pitchers, if the club decided to lay its money on Norris in the rotation and Sanchez and Castro in the bullpen, I could see it.  I'd be happier if Castro had an apprenticeship in Dunedin and New Hampshire in the pen. 

unconfirmed report that delabar was topping out at 92 yesterday. that's not good.

Lots of Delabar's innings have coem against later inning platers from opposing teams. He's been leaving his pitches over the plate and hasn't had a feel for the breaking ball.

For the first time in a LONG time, the Jays seem to be lining things up to bring the best possible team north. If Castro and his 97MPH fastball that he spots at the corners, and filthy change up doesn't work for some reason in MLB, then they can option him down and bring somebody else up. IF Osuna can't cut it in the bullpen then same thing. If they send these guys down to start the season then they're not even trying to bring the best team north. These guys are unbelievable, and incomparable to Hendriks and Delabar.

The one exception is Drabek, he definitely is under Hendriks and Delabar, and I think the Jays are at a point where they're going to try to give him low leverage innings and let him work on his mechanics and if it doesn't work, cut bait.

I'll wager you that Castro will be closer by years end and Osuna will be in the rotation. Only guy who worries me is Sanchez, and he worries me as a number 1/2/3 SP. If he's our 5th starter (where he should be) then that's pretty damn alright, and if he fails, switch him with Osuna.

Delabar optioned to minor league camp today.

While you can debate the merits of this move, I wouldn't pine for anyone on the roster. If he ain't up now, he probably will be soon. Given existing injuries, question marks at 1B, 2B and the outfield, and a batch of baby pitchers (to say nothing of options-related gerrymandering), the team clubhouse figures to look like Grand Central Station with all the comings and goings.

"I'll wager you that Castro will be closer by years end and Osuna will be in the rotation."

The two guys who are a combined 40 years old and have pitched 30-1/3 innings above low A. Right. Seems probable.

Interesting quote from Gibbons:  he says Delabar was demoted because he's only a one-inning guy at this point, and the Jays want a multiple-inning reliever in his slot.

It is true that the bullpen is stronger and deeper if it contains guys who can go multiple innings (and not just Redmond).

Too much groupthink around the issue of whether or not to aggressively promote a young player right now. Holding to an arbitrary rule is worse than aggressively promoting a youngster who projects to be better than the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart.

BP notes today that the Marlins have used aggressive promotions to tremendous effect - Jose Fernandez didn't pitch a game above high A and has 4.1 career WARP, Christian Yelich had 49 games about high A and he's at 4.9, Marcell Ozuna debuted in the bigs at 22 and has 3.1 career WARP, with other prospects like DeSclafani and Marsinick and looking to make an impact this year.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25887

To Chuck's point, I think that some turnover is necessary and desirable.  On the other hand, it is probably a good idea for the club to make a longer-term commitment to several of the players.  So, if the club decided that it was going to give every opportunity to Pompey in centerfield, Travis at second base and Norris in the rotation (and not pull them at the first sign of trouble), I would approve.  I'd also approve if they did the same thing with Sanchez in the bullpen. Having a fair bit of uncertainty at one position (first base here), the #5 slot in the rotation and the lower leverage roles in the bullpen is entirely typical.

If the biggest complaint this year is that Steve Delabar isn't in the bullpen on Opening Day, I'm going to be pretty happy. I've seen Delabar pitch here in Forida a few times. He looked really good one game and average otherwise. He hasn't looked good enough to start talking about losing other players so that he can be kept on the roster. Frankly, I'm more surprised Bo Shultz didn't make the team than Delabar.

I suspect the team has thought out what the back end of the bullpen looks like. It obviously didn't include Delabar. He's not in the mix for long relief.

I'm excited about the possibility (emphasizing possibility) of having Osuna in the pen. I'll go with the org on player development.

I like Delabar a lot, but bringing a long man instead of him makes a lot of sense - generally, because I hate pitching changes, and for 2015 in particular because you probably want to baby Sanchez & Norris for a while.

I would have liked Bo Schultz & Matt West both of whom have pitched well, apparently have a big fastball & have pitched above "A" ball to be given a longer audition - seems the jays brass were intent on Castro/Osuna as first among equals in the BP audition coming into spring training - I still would prefer Castro/Osuna to start in the Dunedin pen and fast-tracking them could get them to the show by the end of April if needed.

starting to get the feeling that Mike Green's gonna get his wish of seeing something approaching tandem starters at the back of the rotation.

In photos I've seen, Miguel Castro (listed @ 6'5") appears to be more than 3" taller than Roberto Osuna (listed @ 6'2")

I don't think they ought to do that with Norris, but if they ran out a tandem with Sanchez where he threw 4-5 innings per outing, it would not terrible.  I still think that the club is better off with him pitching in a high leverage (often multi-inning) bullpen role. 

As much as it makes me nervous that we have a bunch of rookies in the lineup, I am also excited to have a bunch of rookies. It is all about potential. And right now we haven't lost a game this year(or won, but that isn't the point).

It makes the year exciting. Let's see how I feel in July...

Checking opponents quality via B-R Delabar as of their last update was at 9.0 mid-way between AAA and major league quality.  Osuna is at just 8.4, and Castro at 9.2, Drabek 5.9 (High A to AA level), Hendricks 8.7, Hynes 8.9

Agreed Lylemcr, we are rolling the dice with the rookies. I haven't been this excited about a crop of young Jay's talent impacting the team since, uhhh, ever.

When was the last time we looked to have so many impact rookies? just a quick look back so pardon any omissions. I didn't list years with only one impact rookie, even if it was a dave steib or a doc halladay.

1981 - Bell, Barfield

1985 - Cerutti, Fielder , lee, stottlemeyre

1991 - alex gonzalez, juan guzman, pat hentgen, ed sprague

1993 - Delgado, Green, woody Williams

1997 - Kelvin Escobar, Chris Carpenter

2014- Pompey, Sanchez, Stroman

2015??? - Travis, Osuna, Castro, Norris (let's discount his cup of coffee in 2014)

quite a young talent wasteland from the late 90s till the AA regime's approach began bearing fruit, but exciting things to come!

if we had Like buttons I'd have liked the last 5 posts.


and its getting to the fun part of ST now.

up against Hamels today goes our full projected starting lineup vLHP:

SS Jose Reyes (S)
C Russell Martin (R)
RF Jose Bautista (R)
DH Edwin Encarnacion (R)
3B Dosh Jonaldson (R)
1B Danny Valencia (R)
LF Kevin Pillar (R)
2B Devon Travis (R)
CF Dalton Pompey (S)

RHP Aaron Sanchez

ugh shoulda known better than to copy from DJF.

Dosh Jonaldson is such a wilnerish joke I hate it.

Kevin Dingerbins, on the other hand...

"It's amazing how confidence people have in predicting exactly what sort of ML player Travis already is, quantifying his 2015 batting average, HR and SB totals, total WAR, etc. He has no ML experience, but he's already an average ML hitter (or an above-average hitter), an average fielder (or a below-average fielder) and a 1.5 WAR player. Remarkable."

That's a nice straw man you've built, feeling contrarian?

solid outing from sanchez today. 5.1ip, 2ht, 1r, 1bb, 2k. 10gb/3fb.

I wish he would K more guys but if the drop in walks is real then combined with his groundballness he might just be ok.

Tolleson really doesn't want to be cut.

Is there any possible parallel between Sanchez and Henderson Alvarez?   Both are flame-throwers with relatively low K rates.   Despite that, Alvarez has turned into a pretty good pitcher -- an excellent pitcher if 2014 turns out to be a normal year for him.

Drabek mows down Howard, Bogusevic and Hill for the save. Groundout, strikeout, flyout.

I am hoping that Viciedo is cut already. How much longer until he's cut?

Looks like Ryan Goins played the final 2 innings in LF. It seems very likely at this point that the opening day roster will only have 3 regular outfielders (Pillar, Pompey, Bautista) with Tolleson OR Goins available as LF replacements if required until Saunders is ready. Maybe only one spot left up for grabs: 3rd catcher or 3rd infielder.

Goins getting time in LF makes a lot of sense.  I am pretty sure that he'd be better than Dave Berg if push came to shove.

".....with Tolleson OR Goins available as LF replacements..."

Tolleson AND Goins available in LF if they both make the roster, which the Jays could well do if they decide to give Travis a few weeks in Buffalo.  In which case, if Thole is cut and Smoak makes the team as expected, the bench becomes:  Navarro, Valencia, Goins or Tolleson (depending on which one is playing 2B on that day) -- and one one more slot is available!   From roster squeeze to roster surplus.  Does that open the door for an 8th reliever?  Or would you give the spot to a Gindl or Barton?  (I'm not even mentioning Kawasaki because why would the Jays need two back-up infielders? But I suppose he could be an option too.)

I don't think Osuna starts with big club. Remaining spot will go to Drabek, Hendriks or someone yet to be acquired.

Interesting how the pen has developed.  Has AA been influenced by the success of the Royals with their big arms in the pen?  I wonder what Delabar's demotion does to the morale of the Buffalo shuttle optionable guys?  obviously, rookies and fringe guys without options may benefit, but I assume from the projected roster lists people have been posting that most of us (myself included) thought Jenkins and Delabar were near locks to make the team out of camp.  the pay difference is so significant that it's hard for the player's personal lives not to make the team simply because of the labour conditions of MLB. 

still nervous about the OF depth with talk of Goins as a fourth OF.

and promising news on the rookies from BP, with Chris King saying of Alford that "you'd be hard pressed to find another prospect with his breakout potential this year." and noting about Rowdy Tellez that "the very first thing that stood out was Tellez and his slimmed down frame. While he's still a very large human being, the body looked trimmed and stronger. Once in the cage, Tellez put on a very impressive show during his BP session."

Goins getting time in LF makes a lot of sense. I am pretty sure that he'd be better than Dave Berg if push came to shove.

Better than Berg, but as good as Tom Wilson?

Sanchez and Alvarez are similar as regards fastballs that generate a lot of ground balls. If Sanchez can develop his breaking ball he will be better than Alvarez, if not he will be similar to Alvarez.

heckuva battle for the bench spots:

ut valencia .875 -- tolleson 1.012
of pillar .834 ---- gindl 1.012
if goins .846 ----- kawasaki 1.008

and then the guys not hacking it:

ut barton .606
of viciedo .552
if izturis .451


and I don't known if our projected starting 5 has ever looked any better than this in spring:

Dickey 12.0ip, 7k, 0.83wh, 1.50er
Hutchison 10.0ip, 5k, 0.90wh, 1.80er
Buehrle 9.2ip, 5k, 1.14wh, 2.79er
Norris 18.2ip, 21k, 1.07wh, 2.41er
Sanchez 18.1ip, 9k, 1.04wh, 3.93er

hutch and buehrle each had dominant milb games this week too. I seem to remember always fretting about poor sp performances every previous spring.

Better than both the guitarist and the catcher in left, although no word yet whether Goins can play like Bernie Williams or even Aaron Hill.  Versatility is key if he's going to keep a job and there's nothing like an 8-bar blues in the clubhouse after a tough loss!

My baby's goins, goins, gone.

heckuva battle for the bench spots... ut valencia .875

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that a wobbly Edgar means that he DHs while Valencia assumes fulltime 1B duties? (Valencia vs. RHP is John McDonald. But that just could be an unfair label, 1000 career PAs be damned.)

".....Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that a wobbly Edgar means that he DHs while Valencia assumes fulltime 1B duties?....."

I'm assuming you mean Edwin, rather than the noted blues guitarist Edgar Winter.

In any event, I don't see any scenario where Valencia is the full-time 1B.  As noted above, the roster squeeze isn't actually that bad.  There's room for Smoak or Barton.  And even room for Navarro, which would nudge Encarnacion to more playing time at 1B.

I'm assuming you mean Edwin, rather than the noted blues guitarist Edgar Winter.

Yes. I'll blame Mike for that gaffe. I made the error, but he made me do it.

In any event, I don't see any scenario where Valencia is the full-time 1B.

I don't think it would be an indefinite thing. It's just a concern I have based on something Gibbons said. I may have missed the context or misheard or misinterpreted. I'll be happy to have this suspicion proven entirely unfounded.

2015 spring training stats:

Travis: 364/404/500, SB:CS 0:2, BRef opp. quality 8.1 (8 is AAA, 10 is MLB)
Gose: 333/388/556, SB:CS 5:1, opp. quality 8.7

Not sure what this means (that ST stats aren't all that significant?), but it will be interesting to see how the Travis/Gose trade works out for both teams, in 2015 and beyond.

I heard Gibbons on 590 express a similar Valencia sentiment, Chuck. Edwin got 3 at bats today so if he can stay in the lineup from here, I don't think we need to worry about Valencia playing everyday.

The next week should be very interesting, because at this point I'm pretty sure even AA has no clue who he is taking north. Too many permutations and plenty of time for things to sort themselves out.

Here's an easy solution for a roster crunch: 6 man bullpen!

Yes. I'll blame Mike for that gaffe. I made the error, but he made me do it.

Sometimes I'm a devil, but I'm not a relation of any of the Wilsons, Tom, Tom or Flip. 

Brady Aiken just had TJ surgery - if he falls to the jays compensation pick (#29) I'd like them to draft him.

Edwin Encarnacion. EDgar WINter. Blues. Blue Jays. Reds. Red Devils. Devil made me do it. Flip Wilson. Top Wilson. Wilson Phillips. Papa John Phillips. Big Papi. Stan Papi. Stan the Man Musial. Stan the Man Unusual. Earl Weaver. The Weavers. Hugo Weaving.

It's all the matrix, man. My little brain doesn't stand a chance.

Gindl was really hot to start the spring but he has cooled off recently and with Pillar back he is not getting as many at-bats.

Travis has been hitless for a couple of games now. Before we decide he is definitely on the team we need to see him get some hits against the top pitchers who are getting most of the innings now.

I'd be OK if they moved Navarro now.
Even for prospect or a bag of Rosin.
I guess they can keep him round and send Thole down for awhile but it seems like more disruption that benefit..
...disappointed he didn't accept the challenge and show up in shape.
The rest of team looks exciting and in a great frame of mind.
It was worth a lottery ticket to see if some catcher got injured but time is running down.

At this point in time a year ago ( Looking back in the archives ), the fifth spot in the order seemed to be a competition between Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, and Dustin McGowan. Brandon Morrow was already assured a spot in the rotation while J.A.Happ was pitching terribly and some posters wanted him sent to the minors or anywhere but Toronto. The fourth outfield spot was Moses Sierra's to lose although Mike Tuiasosopo ( Remember him ? ) was in the mix. Jeremy Jeffress was in the bullpen and Eric Kratz was ticketed for the bench as the third catcher and Maicer Izturis was the backup to Ryan Goins at second. I think I like this years team a lot better, especially with the addition of Donaldson and Martin, but no doubt this time next year we'll find that some of the fringe players we are debating about now have contributed little or nothing.

Travis has been hitless for a couple of games now. Before we decide he is definitely on the team we need to see him get some hits against the top pitchers who are getting most of the innings now.

Hamels gave only 2 hits in 5 innings. Toronto had only 4 hits in that game. You're setting expectations too high.

At this point in time a year ago ( Looking back in the archives )

Well, this was my take a year ago (26 March 2014):

One positive for the Jays is that if the team stays relatively healthy (big if), they should be in a position to really improve the club with a move or two during the season. For example, at some point a team may prove willing to move a quality second baseman or starting pitcher. This could coincide with the Jays having some attractive trade chips on the farm (they have a number of high-potential players whose stock could really rise with good first halves in 2014).

It isn't like some post-1993 stretches when the team was sort of average across the board, with no obvious ways to push the team into contention with a savvy move or two.

Everything rides on health, though.

If they are demoting Delabar to keep Hendriks, then I'm on board. I think Hendriks is worth keeping around as a spot starter, as the Jays really lack SP depth.

If they are demoting Delabar to promote Osuna, then I'm at a loss for words. Hopefully that's just Twitter speculation.

With the season a little over a week away, we will start to see players suddenly become available due to being out of options, or pitchers who signed minor league deals with opt outs hitting the open market again. Jays have to be patient and see what's out there before doing irrational things (Osuna/Castro in the MLB pen, for example).

Delabar's demotion resulted from lack of command/control of all his pitches. His slider reportedly sucked. He was acquired because he had a big power arm and was dominant. As he was in 2013, until his arm got too tired. I just think he was sent down because he needs be just so much better, but also because he could be sent down. He and Bo Schultz will be needed for sure this year, because the Season's at least six months long.

I don't know the source, but a Delivery Guy came by a work and said the Jays announced Delabar being sent down and Castro and Osuna making the Team. So until it's confirmed I'll consider that probable but not definite.

( Looking back in the archives ),

It tells you that ppl look at history so watch out when posting ?

richard, that might be the best post I've ever read.

Well, you know what they say about delivery guys. They deliver.

Have finally realized that Richard S.S. is a parody account.  He's been slyly spoofing us for years.

I don't have a Twitter account, nor a Facebook account. I do as little as possible on the webby because you always leave traces behind, no matter how well you clean up behind you or how good your security is. I stay out of any of the gray/dark parts of the web, because it's too easy to get hacked/cloned/invaded/other bad stuff.

I post on this site and this site alone about what interests or annoys me, or in other words, I have fun talking with others on this site. If I bother someone that much, don't read what I post. You apparently don't need the extra stress.

"....I stay out of any of the gray/dark parts of the web...."

Twitter and Facebook are the "gray/dark" parts of the web?

"....If they are demoting Delabar to promote Osuna, then I'm at a loss for words...."

Gird your loins for more outrage, because it seems to be happening!   Shi Davidi reports today:  "Barring sudden and drastic events, mesmerizing rookies Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna are breaking camp in the bullpen."

He also predicts that Travis and Smoak are likely to start the season at 2B and 1B.   If that's true, the only remaining question is whether the Jays keep a 3rd catcher and whether Navarro is traded.  I'm still leaning towards the scenario in which Thole is demoted and the opening-day bench becomes:  Navarro, Valencia, Goins and quite possibly Tolleson.

As for Castro and Osuna:  I'm as surprised as anyone.  But if they are the best pitchers available for those two bullpen slots, I think the Jays should choose the best pitchers and deploy the best team.  As I've said before, I don't think it damages the development of those two young pitchers in any way.  If they're able to pitch in the majors now, even in a bullpen role, it can only boost their development.  The ability to get major-leaguers out, even from the bullpen, is a skill that they need to master.  If they are capable of doing it now, the experience can only be good for them.

Given this is a win now team I can understand calling up 2 20 year olds if they appear to be the best options available.  Very odd though that two 20 year old kids would be the best options in the pen.  Between the 2 of them they have 18 2/3 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 Walks, 16 K's.  Hard to argue against that.  Both have options of course which is a plus for the Buffalo/Toronto 8th man shuffle.

its a pretty crazy move, really.

but it might just be crazy like a fox.

at least they earned it with their performance.

I don't know what to think, the Castro/Osuna hype this spring has been so crazy. Last night on the radio they were suggesting as a real possibility that Castro could be the closer by June. It seems insane. But then again people who know a lot more about baseball than I do are saying that these guys are the real deal.

".....at least they earned it with their performance...."

That's the crucial point here.   But note that the Jays have also admitted a change in "philosophy" in developing prospects.  It's not a clearly defined or absolute philosophy, but it appears to indicate a faster track for top prospects who seem capable of handling it.  Sanchez last year was an example.  The problem, of course, is that it's not a perfect system, because there will always be cases like Travis Snider who seemed capable of handling it but ultimately were not.

There is an old rule - top players climb faster than average ones.  If Osuna/Castro are top players then this makes a ton of sense as high end guys reach the majors by 20/21 often.  It is rare a high level player is left down until 25 and beyond.  Also for pitchers they can blow out their arm at any time if they are going to it might as well be in the majors.

Promoting Travis makes sense. He's older (for a prospect) and advanced.

Norris has also earned a spot with his performance last season and this spring.

I'm even OK with Pompey up since he plays a critical defensive position and does things that should compensate a bit for whatever offensive issues he may have.

But Castro and Osuna? Bad, bad move. People are suggesting they are the best of the internal candidates, but objectively speaking, how likely is it that 20 year old's from the lower minors are going to jump straight to the Majors and succeed at the MLB level? The probability of that is so low. Castro by himself would have been jumping the gun, but Castro and Osuna?

Just put Sanchez in the pen, and Norris/Estrada in the rotation, while Osuna and Castro can stretch out in the minors before coming up mid season. But I guess Stroman's ACL put that option to rest.

I was pleased to hear that Gibbons' only expressed concern about Delabar was about outings of more than an inning. Perhaps he is going to ease up on the mid-inning platoon matching.  Let's imagine that the club brings both Castro and Osuna north in low/medium leverage multiple inning roles (at least at the beginning).  That leaves 5 relievers who will generally only be called upon in the 7th inning or later- presumably Redmond in medium leverage situations and Estrada in higher leverage situations from the right side, and Loup and Cecil from the left side.  Which leaves one additional spot, presumably Hynes, Hendriks or Drabek.

It's not what I would do, but it is a reasonable adaptation to the Jays' circumstances.  I wonder if the club is going to have some (presumably internal) guidelines on the usage of Norris.  The more I see of Norris, the more I like him.  I imagine that the club just may let him go 6-7 innings a start assuming that he is pitching reasonably well and it makes sense in the game context.  Perhaps the guideline might be a little tighter with Sanchez- 5-6 innings being the goal and then on comes Castro...

I do not know how the Jays will use Castro or Osuna. AA said Castro was being stretched out to pitch 3 innings.
So it could take 30-50 pitches to do that.
40 outings is 120 IP. Too many IP ? He can work on this 3rd and/or 4th pitch, somehow I hope.
How does he get developed to eventually start, while pitching in the Majors, if he performs well enough?
I hope that this works out well and we end up with a stud pitcher.

I was pleased to hear that Gibbons' only expressed concern about Delabar was about outings of more than an inning. Perhaps he is going to ease up on the mid-inning platoon matching.

That was my first reaction too - the hope that Gibbons might move away from his current style of multiple relievers being used unnecessarily. That would allow for a shorter pen and longer bench, as well as avoiding reliever roulette. But I think his comment was only to denote that Delabar is not in the short reliever mix, and they are filling out the long reliever part of the pen.

Even the most Pollyanna among us (dare I blush?) did not see us going North to Alaska - er - Toronto with FOUR bushy tailed, rookie pitchers. Clearly, the Slaughter of Stroman has caused deep and cosmic changes (I shudder to think how many butterfly's in the Amazon Rain Forest have been killed by the reverberations).

I believe had I been in charge at this I might be one of the few who might actually have reached the same conclusion AA has come to regarding the Four Kiddies. Here's why. We thought we would be testing a raw rookie - either Norris or Sanchez in the starting rotation. All winter we've been hyperventilating about how that might go. With the loss of our one true, near child Ace - looking like a bridge too far - AA had to not only think out of the box - he had to destroy the box and replace it with a whole carton of Baby Diapers.

What we have now is not TWO babies trying to hold on to two starting pitching spots - but FOUR babies trying to hold on to two spots in the rotation. IF - Sanchez (and or Norris) falter we'll have in house, on the team ready, two more infant Aces in diaper training ready to be led to the front. Since I've actually been calling for a four player, two starter, piggyback set up with the Fantastic Four - this gives us what I want - only not so obviously.

Will we need all four in the rotation this year at some time? You bet your little purple butt we will. Remember, baseball has a rule; what can go wrong will go wrong, and ...er... baseball has two rules what can go wrong will go wrong and injuries will always strike when you least expect it, and ...er... amongst the many baseball rules are such as: what can go wrong will go wrong, injuries will always strike when least expected and young pitchers will always, always, always, break your heart. At least this way we've a couple of extra broken hearts on the team to soften the blow.

Surely it's April by now isn't it????

If Osuna and Castro can both pitch close to 100 innings out of the bullpen (or spot starting), then it would minimize some of the damage as it relates to their innings. Although I'm not sure 100 IP relievers exist anymore.

Why the heck did Eck become a closer? He was a pretty good SP before. Can a reliever become a good starter? Never mind. Thanks Jimmy Key. Really!! Thank you.

".....how likely is it that 20 year old's from the lower minors are going to jump straight to the Majors and succeed at the MLB level?....."

If this has now become your main objection, what's wrong with the Jays at least giving it a try?  Even if it's unusual and unlikely, there are always exceptions.  The Jays have assessed that these two guys are the unlikely exceptions that could work, so why not give it a try?  And why are you completely discounting their very impressive spring performances?  Even as the spring has gone on and the competition has gotten tougher, they have still thrived.

Taking Gibbons' Delabar multi inning comment at face value and piggybacking off of Mylagacy's 4 pitchers for 2 SP spots.

I'm thinking this just might be AA's version of the piggybacking the rookie starters and manage innings. Something they've used to manage innings for SP in the minors. If Sanchez and Norris become the best thing since sliced bread, they will run invariably run into that dreaded inning limit issue for young arms. Having Castro and Osuna in the minors stretched out as SP will also run into a innings limit (100 seems to be mentioned often) for them as well. Well if Castro/Osuna have only so many bullets to fire this year, why not fire them at the MLB level, thereby reducing the possibility of having to shutdown either Sanchez/Norris early if this team is built for a playoff run.

I can see Sanchez/Norris going 5-6 innings, bringing in Castro/Osuna for 2-3 innings before turning it over to the rest of bullpen. Once upon a time there were relievers that could go multiple innings before the days of ROOGY/LOOGY and one inning guys. Key/Stottlemyre/Wells and probably more got their first taste of MLB as RP. The con of taking this approach is potentially spots on the 40man and burning options early if Castro/Osuna get sent down.

Following the theme of taking the best players for opening day, why not?

Why the heck
did Eck
become a closer?

We have an early favourite in our Batters' Box poetry contest revival.

In reply:

his career was pushed to the brink
by drink

Why would you make a decision that is unlikely to yield positive results when there are alternatives that are far more predictable and/or better? Hendriks, Guilmet, and West have projected FIP in the 3's. Castro and Osuna are both near 5.00. Again, what are the odds are of those two reaching the type of performance you are expecting?

Everything from history, to projections, to minor league performance points to internal options being far better than Castro and Osuna in 2015. What other than blind faith makes you believe in these moves? Bo Schultz gave up 0 runs in the spring and he was demoted. So do spring training stats really matter? Where do you draw the line? What if Richard Urena starts at 2B in 2015? Sure he's raw and young, but why not try?

Decisions should be made on probability of success. Not "ooh, look at that shiny fastball....". And I don't blindly trust every decision the FO makes. They can be predictably wrong on some things.

do projections for rookies and 4A type guys really count for much? IMO not so much as to overlook what they have done so far.

I thought Castro looked major league ready but I thought Osuna struggled with his command and I wonder if he needs more minor league time.

"Let's imagine that the club brings both Castro and Osuna north in low/medium leverage multiple inning roles (at least at the beginning). That leaves 5 relievers who will generally only be called upon in the 7th inning or later- presumably Redmond in medium leverage situations and Estrada in higher leverage situations from the right side"

Bringing up two inexperienced arms to act as your low-leverage long relievers makes no sense whatsoever unless you actually believe it is the best thing for their future development. Anybody can soak up the innings nobody really cares about, and you don't need to bust Castro & Osuna's service time on a year of a mop up duty. I would only take them north if Castro is ahead of Estrada and Osuna ahead of Redmond with regards to leverage roles.

Hendriks, Guilmet, and West have projected FIP in the 3's.

You can't be serious. Those projections are based on them throwing 10 innings, 15 innings, and 1 inning respectively.

Zips, which provides a much larger IP projection, is kind on Hendriks (4.3 FIP in 28 starts) while Guilmet and West are both below replacement level. Come on now. You don't have to agree with taking two 20 year olds north but your argument is absurd.

That sounds reasonable, Gerry. On the other hand, I wouldn't be talking about Castro as "a potential closer by June".  Young pitchers do not need to hyped. 

It's not an exact science but the projections are pretty reasonable based on history, ratios, etc. Sure it's possible that Osuna and Castro outperform their projections while the others do a lot worse. But again, you're dealing with probability. The odds are not in favor of 20 year old's in short season or A ball coming up and succeeding right away.

Even if Castro and Osuna do turn into good relievers, how many wins will they be worth? 0.5-1.0 is generally the range of a good MLB reliever. Even if they reach that, would it be worth it? How many runs would they have saved in that scenario over other internal options?

I don't think it's worth it. I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but it's not a very common thing for a reason. Very few, if any, other teams would do this. Friedman was notorious for making sure pitchers have a certain number of innings in the minors before coming up. I'll take his methods any day of the week with the Rays success of developing pitchers.

I'm ok with keeping Castro for the pen in medium to high leverage situations, but keeping Osuna too makes no sense to me. He looks much more like a starter than Castro to me, so why not have him stretched out and ready to go when one of our SP's goes down to injury? Otherwise, who is our #6 SP?

You can't be serious. Those projections are based on them throwing 10 innings, 15 innings, and 1 inning respectively.

Zips, which provides a much larger IP projection, is kind on Hendriks (4.3 FIP in 28 starts) while Guilmet and West are both below replacement level. Come on now. You don't have to agree with taking two 20 year olds north but your argument is absurd.

======

I stated a fact (steamer projections for certain pitchers) and that makes my argument absurd? What was my argument when listing their projections?

More importantly, If you honestly believe any projection system would project numbers over a one inning sample at face value, then I don't even know if I should waste time explaining it. Read up on Steamer projections. Learn what they mean. Understand why they have one inning listed in their projections. Then respond.

And I never said internal options were great. I said they were better than Castro and Osuna. Your reading comprehension is more absurd, if anything.

My take on Castro and Osuna from a development perspective is as follows.  I believe that Castro is likely to end up in the pen.  Ideally, I'd have given him a month in Dunedin and then a month in New Hampshire or Buffalo as an ace reliever before considering him for a high-leverage role in the major leagues rather than using a low-leverage role as an apprenticeship or just throwing him into the fire.  I am not really that worried about service time; it is more about giving him the best chance to succeed. I think that Osuna will end up as a starter if his arm holds up (remember that TJ often fails).  I'd put him in Dunedin as a starter, see how that goes, and maybe send him up to New Hampshire in June.  My inclination is that Gerry is right about his command. 

there was an article about the jays a couple weeks back in one of the new york papers that contained an AA quote that I'm surprised didn't get more play up here...

http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-toronto-blue-jays-turn-kids-article-1.2157870

"“When I heard about Marcus, I was completely numb. I got into my car and just drove and drove and drove,” said Anthopoulos. “Finally, when I couldn’t drive any farther, I just stopped the car and said: ‘Okay. Let’s bring on the kids!’ and I started to get excited again.”

so it seems that this is not exactly a surprising development.

of course, we could argue about whether this quote shows a rational or emotional motivation to go with the kids.

Can a reliever become a good starter? Never mind. Thanks Jimmy Key.

Jimmy Key and David Wells were starters in the minors. They were broken into the majors as relievers but with the plan of ultimately becoming starters again.

"Hendriks, Guilmet, and West have projected FIP in the 3's. Castro and Osuna are both near 5.00. Again, what are the odds are of those two reaching the type of performance you are expecting?"

I agree with you in general, SK, but odds are a funny thing.

the odds of blowing are are bigger for the kids, no doubt, but the odds of being really good are also bigger for the kids. and while safer, the likes of hendriks guilmet west arent exactly safe.

and this is a big risk no doubt but at the same time what's the actual downside here?

cy hentgen also started on relief. as did woody.

I think some of these folks cited were developed as starters when they made their ML bullpen debuts. My question is whether Castro and Osuna will continue to develop in the bullpen or whether they'll take the truncated route to career reliever.

If they can get them 100 innings and focus on pitch development at the ML level, great.

Fair enough SK in NJ. I was too hasty and I apologize for that. However, the fact is that you're still basing your argument on one particular projection while ignoring another that suggests that those three guys won't perform nearly as well. And even if Castro and Osuna really stink up the joint, do you really think they'll be kept up for long? Would it do them some sort of lasting damage?

I don't think Osuna should be brought up, because I don't think there's any benefit in doing so right now. He seems like a future starter, and I don't know why having him in the bullpen at this point is going to help him get to that goal. But I'm also not prepared to just insult the front office and imply that the reason they want him here is because he has a big shiny fastball. I want to give the team more credit than that.

best jays' rookie pitcher seasons, age 22 or younger:

Relievers (min 20ip)

1. V.Cruz '78 (20): 47.1ip, 1.71era, 2.71fip
2. K.Escobar '97 (21): 31.0ip, 2.90era, 3.04fip
3. A.Sanchez '14 (20): 33.0ip, 1.90era, 2.80fip
4. R.Halladay '99 (22): 45.0ip, 3.80era, 5.18fip
5. B.League '05 (22): 35.2ip, 6.56era, 6.83fip

so they've really only tried this 5 times, and its worked real well 3 times and blown up badly once.


Starters (min 50ip)

1. K.Escobar '98 (22): 69.0ip, 2.35era, 2.99fip
2. J.Garvin '77 (21): 244.2ip, 4.19era, 4.24fip
3. D.Steib '79 (21): 129.1ip, 4.31era, 4.24fip
4. C.Carpenter '97 (22): 75.1ip, 5.02era, 4.22fip
5. B.Lyon '01 (21): 63.0ip, 4.29era, 3.94fip
6. J.Gott '82 (22): 121.1ip, 4.66era, 4.67fip
7. H.Alvarez '11 (21): 63.2ip, 3.53era, 3.97fip
8. R.Halladay '99 (22): 104.1ip, 3.97era, 5.43fip
9. J.Litsch '07 (22): 111.0ip, 3.81era, 5.14fip
10. J.Clancy '77 (21): 76.2ip, 5.05era, 4.62fip
11. P.Huffman '79 (21): 173.0ip, 5.77era, 5.14fip
12. D.Hutchison '12 (21): 58.2ip, 4.60era, 4.48fip
13. J.Byrd '77 (20): 87.1ip, 6.18era, 4.90fip
14. B.Edge '79 (22): 51.2ip, 5.23era, 4.98fip
15. B.Cecil '09 (22): 92.2ip, 5.34era, 5.38fip

they've actually had some surprising success here, other than those early expansion days when they were likely forcing kids who weren't very good to begin with.

also, given the careers many of these guys have, I'm not sure we should be too worried about ruining them.

OK - my summary...

Clearly, some of us here are going to be proven wrong. Either, the 43 rookies will prove to be a mistake or a stroke of genius. I honestly think we are doing the right thing under the circumstances - but I agree I could be 100% wrong.

I know this - all of us here, eat, sleep, breathe the Blue Jays. We ALL desperately want our beloveds to shine - to be our "precious" - to quote my little friend Gollum. I feel about this year like I felt just before the start of the 1984 year. I feel (and felt then) that we have a winner. Detroit crushed my soul that year with their outrageously good start to the season and no doubt some team (perhaps - curse their souls - Boston) may do the same this year.

This I know - all of us - pro or anti these moves - must be super excited about our team as we get ready to enter this year's fray. We're going to have a wonderfully exciting and interesting team to watch and savor all season. So many story lines to watch unfold. Still so much talent in the minors, so many stories, at so many levels. What a delicious journey we're about to take. This might just be the year I actually reduce my intake of single malt - I don't want to have even one moment of what's about to unfold to be remembered with any blurryness. Perhaps it's time for a Scotch - and to get off to get a responsible start - I'll only make it one shot - single malt of course...

The problem here is the sequencing of the Jays approach to Castro/Osuna. It smells of desperation.

People can say "well what's the downside of trying them in the pen and then demoting them if it doesn't work?", but there are consequences to this. There will almost certainly have to be someone or multiple someones (Hendriks, Drabek, etc.) cut who is out of options. There is the service time issue. What happens to Castro's or Osuna's confidence if they get shelled? You may be messing with there development time. You may not think those are big issues but they do exist. What the Jays should be doing is finding out whether they need them or not. Why not try Delabar, Drabek, Hendriks, etc, in the pen first (on a short leash) and then demote them if it doesn't work? That way Castro and Osuna can pitch at least some innings above A ball before they reach MLB.

You can also point to April and say that they need to win now but the odds of Castro/Osuna at 20 being appreciably better this year (not talking long term) than Delabar, Hendriks or Drabek aren't high (I agree they do exist). So why play the Loto with them first rather than going to them when you have to? To use a poker analogy, its like a short stacked player going all in on a meh hand. I think its a combination of Stroman's injury and masking the fact that the bullpen didn't get fixed properly in the offseason.

What happens to Castro's or Osuna's confidence if they get shelled? You may be messing with there development time.

If they can't get over being shelled, they're never going to make it in the majors. Just about everyone gets shelled at one point or another; Marcus Stroman gave up 9 earned runs in his first five games relieving in the majors.

If you get hit, you make adjustments. If you can't make adjustments in the majors, you do it in the minors.

Heck, Liam Hendriks has been getting shelled in the majors for the past four years, and people still think he's going to bounce back.

I think their mental makeup is a big reason why they're getting pushed.

actually all this current crop of kids really seem like they have their heads on straight.

they seem much better in this regard than the likes of gose, drabek, snider, jpa, etc. all of whom leaned towards being problem childs.

and to add to that, I think the larger group of leaders this year, thanks to adds like martin and Donaldson, make them more comfortable pushing the kids up.

and I have to say that Martin's effusive, unreserved praise of these two kids and their ability to contribute this year calms my nerves quite a bit.

Dalton Pompey gets Hernandez in September, and Verlander in March.  Nice.

Whether or not you think Osuna/Castro should be promoted I think comes down to whether or not you're looking at it from a historical perspective or in the here and now. Of course there aren't many 19 and 20 year old players that have found much success in the majors, but that's because very few have been given that opportunity. You're starting to see more teams take chances on younger arms especially now that almost a quarter of every at bat ends in a strikeout - the highest it's ever been in baseball history.

Also, Osuna is waaaay more advanced than most other pitchers his age. He was pitching at the equivalent of a AAA league in Mexico years ago, and holding his own. And I'm sorry, if you're argument is that you don't think they will be better than the scrubs we have...I just find that incredibly hard to believe. Are you reading that a 20 year old is being promoted and making assumptions that they aren't ready or are you actually watching these underdeveloped 19/20 year olds pitch in these spring games then determining that they can't cut it? Because if you're watching the same guys we are so far, even if hitters aren't at 100%, these kids are dominating with command, velocity and composure, especially Castro. He's outpitching everybody else in the bullpen except Cecil. It's not even close which is why AA told the media a week ago that if Castro didn't make the team he wouldn't know what to say for a reason. Watch the guy pitch and tell me you don't think that will play. If he loses it and can't pitch then send him down, but to send him down now when he's one of your best pitchers, and has little to do in the minors to improve makes no sense. Sure, he can get shelled and learn to bounce back from a bad outing and sure he can work on extra pitches to develop as a starter and sure all of that is easier in the minors, but he can do that in the majors if his stuff plays and become a better player sooner...it's 2015, those things can be done in the bullpen especially with long relief pitchers. See Sale, Chris, Price, David. Not to mention the better staff in the majors and mentors he would have. If you think a guy is special then promote him and find out. In an alternate universe Jose Fernandez is a top 50 prospect who blew out his arm and might not see a major league debut until later this year.

As has been noted earlier, the Marlins approach to prospect promotions has seen some recent success as detailed here. Whether it is ultimately successful remains to be seen but I have no problem with Anthopoulos taking risks and thinking outside the box with Castro and Osuna. Both players have elite stuff and it would appear that Toronto brass are confident in both pitchers' ability to command it down in the zone.

The linear progression of prospects through the minors can often be an exercise in CYA and if the team believes they can contribute now then good on them for trying. Considering how close the AL East projections are this season, that extra (combined) win some are lamenting as the only upside could decide whether Toronto is playing deep into October. This is also only my impression, but I could easily see each deployed as multi-inning relievers logging 70-90 innings each in medium to high leverage situations depending upon their respective performances given Sanchez's utilization last season.

And now Smoak takes Rondon out to centerfield.  New nickname: Justin "Time" Smoak.  Nevermind.

The Jays' usual approach to filling out the back end of their bullpen in April is to stick one or two guys in there whose primary qualification for the job is that they are out of options. This year, they seem to be going with the guys they think are the best. I'm okay with that.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays employe a sorta tandem starter setup with one of the 20 year old teamed with Norris and another with Sanchez early on.  Both could be used other days as well.  AA has said before he expects most prospects to get sent back down at some point and thus doesn't worry about the 10 days to ensure they get an extra year.  Delgado was up and down a few times, Vernon Wells the same for a couple of hundred million dollar players off the top of my head.   If Travis, Osuna and Castro can stay in the majors non-stop from now on then it is a good problem for the Jays in 2021/22 and focusing on stuff like that today is just silly.  Do 20 year olds make jumps like this and succceed?  Felix Hernandez was in the majors at 19, but it is rare and thus why we are all noticing it.  I'm sure someone out there has a BR subscriber account thus can check for 20 year olds who reached the majors opening day as relievers.

dalimon5 - I have seen both pitch live in Vancouver - Castro several times. None of my comments should be taken as not being highly impressed with them and their potential. I am higher on Castro than many - I think he has what it takes to be a starter not just a high leverage reliever. But when I say they don't stand a high chance of being better than the names I mentioned, its a question of odds and trying to beat the historical evidence that even really good prospects tend to struggle when they first arrive. There are of course some exceptions.

All of my comments come with some bias of course. I used to follow the A's and listed to them tell the world that Mike Morgan's stuff was just too good to hold back and he would be just fine going straight to the majors. Everyone who has ever promoted someone so quickly has said that their guy was the exception. I'm old and I remember these things!

There will almost certainly have to be someone or multiple someones (Hendriks, Drabek, etc.) cut who is out of options.

Liam Hendriks has already been claimed on waivers three times in his career, and included in two fairly low-stakes trades. If the Jays do lose him on waivers, I'm pretty sure they'll be able to pick him up again a month or two later.

amen to that, Dave Till.

this one might be over due to rain.

another dominant outing from an SP, this tome hutch. kind of amazing how good our sp have been so far.

That was a pretty solid home run by Pompey. I think he's got a lot more power potential than he showed in the minors, and will soon make people forget that he was merely a 16th-round pick from Mississauga.

That Bautista guy looks pretty sharp, too.

pompey posted about a .150iso over four levels at age 21. that's not powerless.

I'd love to hear more about how the team's current youth have their heads screwed on straight, while the past crop of heavily touted prospects did not.

Reminds me about how in the past few years, when many of us were arguing the Jays should be taking the best players north, certain people were very adamant in explaining how it made more sense to play the options game. The very same people, unsurprisingly, are now in full defense mode of the team's current approach.

Not powerless, no, particularly in 2014. But I got the impression from following him in the minors that his power came more from running out doubles and triples, and the occasional wind-blown homer. So I was surprised when I watched him play in September, and he was hitting the ball with authority.

"21-year-old starts hitting for power" is not the most radical concept, obviously.

"If you think a guy is special then promote him and find out. In an alternate universe Jose Fernandez is a top 50 prospect who blew out his arm and might not see a major league debut until later this year."

Interesting example, dalimon5. I'm guessing the Marlins would prefer your theoretical scenario to their existing one, one in which they didn't waste 2 years of Jose Fernandez at the MLB minimum on years they had zero chance of contention. He may have blown out his arm at the same time in the minors (or maybe not, sans MLB stress) and they'd be excited to potentially be able to add him this summer to a contender's pitching staff, and then to have 6 full years of control after that. Of course the 2015 Jays and 2013 Marlins are in VERY different spots, but Fernandez' promotion was thought of as unnecessarily aggressive and I don't think his early, dominant success changes that.

It actually started when Pompey was 20.  He hit 6 home runs in the month of August (the final month of the minor league season). 

I thought a bit about Mookie Wilson.  When Wilson was 21, he was in A ball and hit .290/.375/.420 with 33 walks and 57 strikeouts in 286 PAs and 23/7 stealing bases.  He ambled through the high minors at age 22-24 never hitting near as well as Pompey did in his stint there in 2014.  Mookie had a September call-up at age 24 and then got his first regular action at age 25, going .271/.317/.372 with 24 stolen bases in 36 attempts.  He finished 7th in Rookie of the Year voting and went on to a pretty decent career. Obviously there are centerfield prospects who started out hotter than Pompey  and didn't end up too well- Lastings Milledge comes to mind immediately.

If the Jays think Castro and Osuna can perform well in a big league bullpen right now, fine, let's see them. If they struggle, they'll be sent down. There will be dozens of roster changes over the course of the season. Who is or is not on the roster on opening day just doesn't seem like that big a deal to me, if you're talking about who is the backup middle infielder, or the 5th/6th/7th man in the bullpen. The roster on April 6th isn't going to stay the same for long.

Far more important is how the young starters look - I'm becoming more and more convinced that Hutchison is going to really have a breakthrough season, and Norris has been extremely impressive.

another dominant outing from an SP, this time hutch. kind of amazing how good our sp have been so far.

ugly, without tempering your enthusiasm, that was a thin Tiger lineup there today. No Miggy or VMart for example. Similarly, the 3 run breakout that included the Smoke Bomb, came off Bruce Rondon, who couldn't get anyone out. The rain brought a merciful end to his afternoon.

Kyle Drabek has been claimed on waivers by the White Sox. Unfortunately Drabek hasn't been the same since his second TJ surgery.

92-93, from your first sentence it seems like you're calling me out, but the options comment wouldn't make sense in that case, since I raged at us being stuck with the likes of rogers and jeffress on the roster last year.

I think I like this years team a lot better, especially with the addition of Donaldson and Martin, but no doubt this time next year we'll find that some of the fringe players we are debating about now have contributed little or nothing

The Jays seem to have plentiful of hitter and pitcher assets in young players. Do you package them with a veteran - say Navarro - to another team in return of considerations to get more funds or asset to go for postseason this 2015 regular season ?

Out of options Jays

Donaldson, Smoak, Tolleson, Valencia,
Barnes, Cecil, Drabek, Hendriks, Redmond

Trade ideas:
1) D-backs: Navarro + Barnes + a 2B (Kawasaki ?) for Hill and Gosewich/Laird? This opens a slot on 40-men roster by DFAing Gosewich. Thole catches Buerhle and Dickey; Martin on all young pitchers.

Kyle Drabek has been claimed on waivers by the White Sox

Why the White Sox likes to pick up Jays players: Alex Rios, Moises Sierra, Kyle Drabek ....

With Drabek being claimed and apparently Barnes passing through waivers, it furthers the notion that Castro and Osuna are both making the opening day roster.

as if you could temper my enthusiasm, ComebyDeanChance!

no doubt ST stats are sorta useless.

still, this makes me happy, because usually we don't get this even in ST:

Dickey 12.0ip, 7k, 1bb, 0.83wh, 1.50er
Hutchison 15.0ip, 11k, 4bb, 0.93wh, 1.80er
Norris 18.2ip, 21k, 4bb, 1.07wh, 2.41er
Buehrle 9.2ip, 5k, 0bb, 1.14wh, 2.79er
Sanchez 18.1ip, 9k, 4bb, 1.04wh, 3.93er

that is pretty.

In AA's first season as GM, the jays acquired 2 pitchers who were expected to be at least rotation regulars by 2012 - Kyle Drabek in the Halladay trade & AA's first draft pick Deck McGuire - the complete bust of these 2 pitchers really set back the jays a few years.

The BP is taking shape - Cecil,Loup,Richmond,Osuna,Castro and Estrada (unless he starts on the DL) - final spot may come down to another lefty in Hynes and risk losing Hendriks or carrying Hendriks as another multi-innings guy as a safety precaution with 2 rookies in the rotation.

Why didn't the jays wait until the end of spring training to waive Kyle Drabek when teams would be more reluctant to claim him - my guess is that the White Sox will try to sneak him through waivers next week - Sox have an excellent pitching coach, so if Drabek has anything left Cooper should be able to help him.

".....when many of us were arguing the Jays should be taking the best players north, certain people were very adamant in explaining how it made more sense to play the options game...."

This is an irrelevant and meaningless comparison, because in the past we were talking about "best players" such as Chad Jenkins (who still hasn't cracked the Jays lineup even now) and today we're talking about "best players" like Castro and Osuna, who are in a whole different league from Jenkins or his ilk.  (Don't believe me?  Where was Jenkins pitching when he was 20 years old?)   I find it entirely plausible that Castro and Osuna are clearly better than Hendriks or Delabar, whereas last year it was quite unclear if Jenkins really was the "best player" for the final bullpen slot.

Moreover, the options game in 2014 was aimed at protecting Jeffress -- who turned into a very good pitcher for Milwaukee after the Jays lost him.  You can see why the Jays were juggling options to try to keep Jeffress.  His performance for Milwaukee last year was better than Jenkins has managed at any level in his career.  So, yes, it was certainly worth the effort to protect Jeffress and try to keep him on the roster.  He was close to turning the corner, and the Jays were perhaps just a few weeks early in their efforts.

I've been defending Sanchez against the doubters for a couple of years now. I think there is a good chance he puts it together as a starting pitcher. He's young, he's talented, he continues to refine his game, and he seems to be gaining a lot of confidence. And he has really limited his walks over his last 50-odd innings. No guarantees, of course, but I'm looking forward to see how the next couple of years go for him.

"....In AA's first season as GM, the jays acquired 2 pitchers who were expected to be at least rotation regulars by 2012 - Kyle Drabek in the Halladay trade & AA's first draft pick Deck McGuire - the complete bust of these 2 pitchers really set back the jays a few years...."

Set back the Jays a few years??  That's totally over-the-top hyperbole.  Prospects go bust all the time -- all the time.  McGuire was a poor draft pick, but he was the 11th pick, not the first pick, and even first-rounders don't routinely turn into stars.  Look at all the prospects who were drafted ahead of Mike Trout -- were all of those teams set back "a few years" because their first-rounders didn't turn into superstars?  A high percentage of all first-rounders are busts, and their teams survive without being crippled for several years.  As for Drabek:  were you predicting Tommy John surgery when he was acquired?  Injuries are unpredictable.

If you're looking for pitchers who set back the Jays, it would be more logical to focus on Romero and Morrow, rather than Drabek and McGuire.  Everyone, not just AA, thought that Romero and Morrow would be the cornerstones of the Jays rotation for many years to come. 

Anybody can soak up the innings nobody really cares about, and you don't need to bust Castro & Osuna's service time on a year of a mop up duty.

But they won't be on mop-up duty.  AA is going full on KC with this move- Castro and Osuna will be pitching key innings out of the gate. 

Why didn't the jays wait until the end of spring training to waive Kyle Drabek when teams would be more reluctant to claim him?

Because the Jays haven't valued Drabeck at all since he was moved to the AAA pen - a last ditch effort - and saw pretty dreadful results.  I've been saying this for over a year - Drabeck was never in the Jays plans, and Bauxites are only attached to him because of his role in the Halladay trade.  I'd rather they take pains to get Hendricks or Tolleson through, not a mediocre AAA reliever. 

A bit off topic, but has anyone heard what happened to Wilton Lopez?  He never seems to get mentioned when anyone is listing the likely Buffalo bullpen.  He was a non-roster invitee on a minor league deal, so he didn't need to be optioned or to clear waivers.  But I think theoretically he could have looked for a contract with another team after he got cut from training camp.  Do we assume he's still on Buffalo or is he looking around for a deal with another team?

I believe that Lopez was sent to the minor league camp.

One reason for my question about Lopez:  the Buffalo bullpen now seems to be very overcrowded, with about 11 pitchers in it, as noted in TamRa's excellent blog.  (Link here:  http://thesouthpawbaseball.blogspot.ca/2015/03/minor-league-roster-previews.html)

He may have blown out his arm at the same time in the minors (or maybe not, sans MLB stress) and they'd be excited to potentially be able to add him this summer to a contender's pitching staff, and then to have 6 full years of control after that.

There's no reason to think playing in The Show is more dangerous than playing in the minors and taking the bus every day. I'm positive that going on the DL in the minors doesn't protect you from injury later either.

But they won't be on mop-up duty.  AA is going full on KC with this move- Castro and Osuna will be pitching key innings out of the gate.

Somebody will have to soak those innings. I'm not to worry about Castro and Osuna, but the Jays will need to come out strong of of the gate, because Norris and Sanchez won't last the whole year in the rotation.

That's one reason why I would've liked to see Osuna start in the rotation for New Hampshire. Chances are he'd be needed in the rotation at some point, where I think he's better served.

On the emotional/fun side of baseball. This is great by John Lott.

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/27/the-unlikely-rise-of-rookie-toronto-blue-jays-pitchers-roberto-osuna-and-miguel-castro

I like that AA is bringing the best players from spring training. No question, this is AA's year to make or break. He is leaning heavy on rookies.


If 1/2 of these rookies payoff, I am very excited for next year then. We have some payroll coming off the books, Stroman comes back. We can fill a couple more holes.

I love spring training.

Interesting tidbit....

Papelbon pitched the 1st inning of the game between the Phillies and Yankees today and Anthopolous was there to watch it (or at least was there coincidentally while his team was down the road at home playing the Tigers). Shortly after Papelbon finished, AA left.

Taken in conjunction with the fact that Gibbons said something like "well it will all make sense by Sunday" when probed about Delabar being send down, I am calling it. Papelbon will be a Blue Jay by the end of this weekend. Strange timing though if this were to happen. Here is the link to the CSCphilly article.

Question then, whether right or wrong anyone want to guess what it would take to get him? Just taking on his salary and 2016 option enough to get him for next to nothing? If this were to happen, I can't imagine AA would give up any prospect of significance.

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/huh-interesting-blue-jays-general-manager-alex-anthopoulos-watches-jonathan-papelbon-pitch

Interesting comment by Theo Epstein on the Bryant situation (per ESPN), in light of the Jays' expected decision to include Castro and Osuna on the ML roster. Not saying I disagree with the Jays' decision, but when Epstein talks, I listen:

Epstein told ESPN on Thursday that he prefers young players to make their debuts in-season, which was his approach with Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury during Epstein's tenure as general manager of the Boston Red Sox.

"I've never put a guy on an Opening Day roster who hadn't played in the big leagues previously. In 13 years, I've never done it," Epstein told ESPN. "I'm not saying I'd never do it, but the general rule, the presumption, is to allow those guys to go out, play, get comfortable, get in rhythm, and come up when you handpick just the right moment for them to have success."

I would like to hear an honest answer from Epstein to this question: If you could start Bryant in the majors on opening day and have him for 7 years before free agency (rather than sending him down for 2 weeks to achieve this), would you do so? Of course such an answer might require sodium pentothal...

Whatever Epstein's motivations (and there could be more than one at play), other GMs could do worse than by emulating him. Between Boston's WS wins and the Cubs' rebuilt roster and farm system, he's had quite a career.

To make it more interesting.... Jays needs are 2B & 1B - could AA be planning a big deal with Philly with a few contracts jumping around?  Navarro to Philly with Utley and Pap here?  Can't imagine AA is insane enough to take on Howard even if Philly eats the whole contract.  AA wanted Domonic Brown way back in the Halladay trade but Philly wouldn't give him up but now he had a 77 OPS+ season last year just a 657 OPS this spring could AA demand him to be mixed in for taking on Pap's contract?  Plus of course everyone is after Cole Hamels.  Might try to draw a 2nd reliever like Jake Diekman out of them too.  Some interesting mix and matches possible there to try to improve the 2015 Jays but all involve a lot of cash.  My guess is something like Pap & Brown for nearly nothing. 

Re: Bryant -- there's no question that the incentives are off here and the fans and young players lose.

I hope the union fights hard to change the rules to avoid this sort of situation in the future.

the red sox' projected starting catcher, vazquez, looks like he needs TJ.

navarro could be a fit there.

Branch Rickey had no trouble bringing up a great player on Opening Day.  It has everything to do with the CBA.  It would be better if Epstein simply admitted that his job requires him to balance the short and long term interests of the club.

If Hutchison continues his present schedule, He's the Opening Day Starter in New York and will pitch in Baltimore. The Split-Squad games today have Estrada verses Atlanta and Wolf verses Pittsburgh. Tomorrow, Sunday's game should be Dickey. He would then be on schedule to pitch Game Two in New York, miss the Baltimore series and pitch two or possibly three games at home (maybe under the Dome). Whoever pitches Monday would be on schedule to start Game Three in New York. The Jays do not want Buehrle pitching in New York as apparently he doesn't do well there. That leaves Norris or Sanchez to start that game. As I don't think they want back-to back lefties pitching in the Rotation, I suspect Norris starts, followed by Sanchez, then Buehrle.

With the exception of three games with Atlanta in Toronto, 19 of the other 20 games in April are with the A.L. East. Doing well in this month could mean a lot by Season's end on whether or not Post-Season play ensues. The Jays get hot in April could mean an easy run to Post-Season play. That's why I think A.A. is manipulating the Rotation to maximize chances for winning.

Boras clients rarely sign early extensions, but only if the player insists. Usually they go year to year seeking max value until free agency then seeking a windfall contract. Keeping a talented Boras client once Free agency starts is very rare and very expensive.

The choice is going from Spring Training to Opening Day means you keep a talented Boras Client at most 6 years. Sending that client down for just a couple of weeks means you can keep him now for 7 years. That's an easy decision.

Yep, Richard, pretty easy. Don't think that makes Epstein any more of a genius than any other GM who would have done the same thing under the circumstances the Cubs are in..... Not really aiming for the playoffs this year.

Whenever I see Boris' name my mind starts thinking about money...who'd a thunk it, eh?

SO - I went to Cots Baseball Contracts and found that the Jays will have quite a few extra pieces of eight to play with next year - actually, more than quite a bit - they'll have about $53,400,000.00 to play with (I should be so lucky).

Here's where we'll save: Burhrle, $20,000,000.00, Dickey $12,000,000.00, Romero $7,750,000.00, Navarro $5,000,000.00, Estrada $3,900,000.00, Izturis $3,000,000.00, and Thole $1,750,000.00. That is some serious cheese. The only big addition from guys now on the team will be Martin - going from $7,000,000.00 this year to $15,000,000.00 next. Oh well, there goes the Romero savings. But still even a paltry - $45,000,000.00 (give or take a schekel) to play with ain't exactly chopped liver.

Thinking about it...we'll have Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Norris, Osuna and Castro all locked and loaded and available for at least $0.10 on the dollar what they'll be worth. We'll have EE, Bautista, Donaldson and Martin - cheap(ish) (as a group). Not to mention, young Starlets like Hynes, Pompey, Pillar, Travis - all at a fraction of what their contributions would warrant on the open market.

So what would we actually go after? A first baseman? Give Saunders a big raise in his final year of Arb? It's almost scary how little we might actually "need" to add in 2016. Perhaps, the best way to spend it would be to find a way to get two big bats to replace EE and Bautisa for the longer term. Perhaps, some combination of a trade and or free agent signing to get a couple of young bashers.

I have a feeling next off season might be very interesting...

Interesting split-squad for today's games.  The A team plays behind Estrada against Atlanta- Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion, Martin(DHing), Donaldson, Pompey, Pillar, Travis and Thole catching.  The B team plays behind Wolf against Pittsburgh.   Barton homered in the B game. 

The nice thing about being a GM of Epstein's stature is that you can say and do what you want. You don't have to do - or comment on - anyone else's agenda.

John Lott reports that Marcus Stroman is going back to finish his degree.  Great.  While he's at it, he might want to take a page from Joe Morgan's playbook.  Early in his career, Morgan lost a year due to a knee injury.  He used the year in part to study pitcher's moves and became easily the best player at recognizing the pick-off move.  I am sure Marcus will be watching a few baseball games this summer; I don't know if the Duke sociology program will give him credit for it but I am sure that he'll put the time to good use...

In other inspiring news, Jonah Keri tweets that when Stroman arrived in the majors last May, he told his friend Sanchez how great it was to be in the majors and that he had rented an apartment near the RC with an extra room for Sanchez  for when he got the call.

Just lookin' at our Top 30 at the Jay's MLB site and realized that our/their Top 10 is gonna take a devastating hit this year. Norris #1, Pompey #2, Sanchez #3, Osuna #6, Castro #7 and Travis #9 all graduating and not another guy on the list looks that close to being ready - 'cept perhaps Pentecost and Hoffman... anyone heard anything about those two? Could they be keepers? Chuckle, chuckle...

01) Jeff Hoffman RHP (22) Inj./High-A
02) Max Pentecost C (22) Inj./Mid-A?
03) Anthony Alford CF (20) Mid-A
04) Sean Reid-Foley RHP(19) Low-A
05) Mitch Nay 3B (20) High-A
06) Jairo Labourt LHP (21) Low-A
07) Ryan Borucki LHP (21) Mid-A
08) Dwight Smith 2B/LF(22) AA
09) Matt Smoral LHP (21) Mid-A
10) Jesus Tinoco RHP (20) Mid-A
This isn't a great bunch, but until we see performances this year, we won't know how good they are.
11) Alberto Tirado RHP (20) Low-A
12) Clinton Hollon RHP (20) Short Season
13) Dan Jansen C (20) Mid-A
14) Richard Urena SS (19) Mid-A
15) Yeltsin Guidino SS (18) Short Season
16) Juan Mesa RHP (17) Short Season
17) Lane Thomas 2B/SS (19) Short Season
18) Dawel Lugo SS (20) Low-A
19) A.J.Jimenez C (25) AAA
20) Adonys Cardona RHP (21) Mid-A

Osuna today looked to me like a terrific young pitcher who needs to spend at least one more season in the minors.  He doesn't quite have the command. 

So Mike - do we go get us a Paps and send Osuna back to the minors for some maturing?

"This is an irrelevant and meaningless comparison, because in the past we were talking about "best players" such as Chad Jenkins (who still hasn't cracked the Jays lineup even now) and today we're talking about "best players" like Castro and Osuna, who are in a whole different league from Jenkins or his ilk."

And do you know why the "best player" being left off the team was only somebody as talented as Chad Jenkins? Because the thought of bringing Stroman & Sanchez north as relievers to start the season never even crossed anybody's mind, because it would have been so ludicrous an idea to fast track them to the majors and hinder their development as SPs simply because they were the team's best looking arms.

Kiley McDaniel suggested AA or high-A as a logical place for Osuna to start the season (as a starter, presumably).

I remember when Osuna signed with the Jays. Epy Guerrero was really high on him and I've been following his progress ever since. Osuna certainly has everyone's attention now. Nice work on Guerrero's part.

Mylegacy's post about next year's commitments had me thinking about 2016. While AA and Gibbons may be on the chopping block if the team has a poor season, if you look up and down the roster it's really 2016 that would be this team's last chance, not 2015. This is primarily based on the affordable options remaining on Bautista & Encarnacion's contracts. If Dickey throws around 200 innings his 2016 option will likely be picked up, so you're looking at 73m for the team's veteran core.

Reyes 22m
Martin 15m
Bautista 14m
Dickey 12m
Encarnacion 10m

If you throw in at least 20m for arbitration players such as Donaldson, Cecil, Saunders, Hutchison, Smoak, Loup, etc. you're at approximately 95m. The Jays should be able to field a pretty competitive team next year, even if payroll was slashed under the first year of new management under the guise of the team's fiscal "losses".

".....Because the thought of bringing Stroman & Sanchez north as relievers to start the season never even crossed anybody's mind, because it would have been so ludicrous an idea to fast track them to the majors and hinder their development as SPs simply because they were the team's best looking arms...."

You persist in the idea that 2014 was identical to 2015.  It was a very different situation.  You want us to believe that Castro and Osuna are exactly the same as Stroman and Sanchez.  It's self-evident that they are not.  You want to argue that the bullpen competition and the team's situation were exactly the same in 2014 and 2015, when clearly they are not.  You're tossing around the term "best-looking" as if anyone will ever agree on the use of such a nebulous and subjective term to describe a pitcher.  And you're convinced that the Jays management are "ludicrous" people who will stupidly "hinder the development" of their pitchers -- when it's been pretty widely established by most experts already that a year in the bullpen doesn't hinder the development of any pitcher.   If the ludicrousness of the Jays management is so obvious to everyone, I don't know why they weren't fired long ago and replaced by a knowledgeable fan such as yourself.

The Jays could have a pretty economical rotation (six deep) in 2016:

Dickey
Stroman
Hutchison
Norris
Sanchez
Osuna

That's a lot of talent per MLB dollar.

Questions exist in the Bullpen that may concern Anthopoulos. Will Brett Cecil be healthy enough to start the Season as well as pitch effectively if he can? Can he pitch effectively in back-to-back games? Who closes if or when he can't? Even with a 110% healthy and effective Brett Cecil, there are still questions? If A.A. thinks he needs something, who knows, especially after whatever is to happen tomorrow happens.

One of the team's obvious needs, created by the injury to Stroman, is the need for greater depth among the starters.  Right now, I suppose the 6th starter is Estrada, who is a question mark, or Redmond, who hasn't been a starter for years, or perhaps Hendriks if he somehow survives the roster squeeze.  But an interesting candidate is emerging now: Randy Wolf.  He'll start in the Buffalo rotation, but he showed some signs today (against some good Braves hitters) that he might still be capable of getting good hitters out.  It wasn't a great outing overall (4 hits and 2 walks in 2.2 innings) but this is a very very early point in his comeback journey.  He seems very committed to the Jays and willing to do the necessary work to get fully in shape.  Give him a month in Buffalo and he might be major-league-ready.   Nice to have that depth.  There's no guarantee that Sanchez or Norris will make the leap to the starting rotation immediately -- they might yet have setbacks.  And injuries are always a risk.  That 6th starter slot will be important.  Wolf could become the best candidate for that slot.

Chad Jenkins has been a fairly decent pitcher for the Jays. They wanted him to learn to throw a Cutter, to which he showed some reluctance to use. If he learns it, he will be much more effective. If he learns it.

If they send Osuna down and keep Castro, somebody will have to be around to help Castro adjust.  Can someone help Mark Buehrle learn Spanish, stat?

Other than Hoffman, who might not be ready until 2016 or even later and Pentecost, who is at least two to three years away, there's a gap of about one year before the next wave hits, mid- to late-2016. Baring any breakout candidates like Norris, Graveman and Pompey, it will be interesting to see who leads the pack coming up now. I'm not sure who it might be.

Unless I'm mistaken, basically anyone that might be needed very quick are about replacement level to barely major league players. But if not on the 40-Man Roster, I don't know for sure who they might be because anyone better has either been traded or is or will be on the 25-Man Roster. There are Prospects and there are MLB-ready/Near MLB-ready Players, they are not always the same thing. Right now MLB-ready/near MLB-ready Players are much more important/have more significance. Does anyone have any suggestions?

Richard, I assume that you are talking about elite prospects. So I basically agree with you.
We/I have to say that there is nobody good enough to qualify, starting in AA or AAA this year. However A Loup fits this qualifier condition, that I set, but Loup has been great.
Travis will be in AA or AAA if not on the Jays. If so he may be one player on our list.

Throwing from the mound and pitching in the majors are two very different things. Of course, Castro might not still be in the majors if and when Santana ever returns.

Thanks, Chuck

For someone to help young players adjust, shall he or she be on the same team ? Or being on the same team is usually the situation to provide help ?

Well, I was wondering if someone was really needed quick, due to an injury or someone being traded/etc., who comes up that's competent enough for more than a few games. As far as I know, A.J. Jimenez is an adequate catching solution if needed (as Josh Thole hits much better with consistent ABs). But I'm not sure who's at Buffalo or New Hampshire who are that good or better at what they do.

@Rich S.S.: How about in the trading away Navarro for players, among whom a catcher comes to Toronto. He doesn't have to be very good, and he would not be anyway; nonetheless he can pair with Jimenez in Buffalo but too old as a prospect. Is Tuffy Gosewich a candidate if the other trade partner is the D-backs ?

shoot, lost that comment to the internet.  but to try to recall quickly - richard, agreed that theres a real gap between the current group of prospects threatening to stick with the big league team and the next wave

SP - boyd and castro, fringy prospects, are the closest, with Hoffman likely to move fast when back from injury.  lower level guys like reid-foley, smoral and laibourt have plenty of promise, but appear to be a ways off

RP -  theres not a lot of value in relief 'prospects' so a stilson / rasmussen isnt much better than a west / infante / schultz type in my book.  i had been following canadian jordan romano but hes out for the year with an injury.

1b - tellez and dean in A ball

2b - heidt, and lopes, who tore up aussie baseball this winter.  also a ball guys

ss - urena and Lugo have the most upside, but lots of other talent - mostly A ball. 

andy burns and a few others do profile as quick moving utility types.

3b - nay could finish the year in AAA but he's still at least a year off to me

Of- dwight smith jr. is my pick for most likely to be with us by september, although if he's playing lots at 2b that will slow him down.

c - pentacost should move fast when recovered but was only just drafted.  dan jansen could be a talent but is a ways off.  Jiminez off course is likely ready to be a big league back up. 

and that's it?  smith jr., jiminez and a bullpen wildcard or two could help this year?  unless someone goes all pompey / norris on the system - totally possible with a group this talented. 

Right now Dave Stewart isn't a very good GM, and at the present time he has a non-achieving Team. Every Pitcher on his 40-Man is an MLB Pitcher or MLB-Ready Pitcher as that's all he acquired in the Offseason. There are at least four Pitchers to as many as seven Pitchers that are without options and without a place on the Team. His complaint is he can't afford Navarro. I just don't think trading $$$ for $$$ is possible as he doesn't know who to keep and who to trade. I just don't think he considers how much better off young pitchers are learning from a veteran Catcher.

Thanks Guys, for your help. So for the most part, any help is on the 40-Man or a NRI this Spring that sticks with the Team (AAAA types?).

i give 92-93 a TKO over china in this round.

you're trying to have it both ways, CF.

my 2 cents on the prospects is we have a number of guys with legit talent who could take a huge leap up the prospects charts merely by repeating last year's performance at a higher level (smith, jansen, urena, perdomo, borucki), or by building on some late season improvements last year (tellez, smoral, nay) in addition to high ceiling guys getting their first real milb seasons in (hoffman, alford, hollon, reid-foley). not to mention the rumored addition of vladdy jr.

there's a decent chance at having a number of top-100 type prospects again this time next year, even with all the guys we're graduating.

a ball guys

For a sec there I was pondering if a ball guy is anything like a glove guy.

Blue Jays claim Andy Wilkins 1B - 26, Bats left, off waivers from White Sox. https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=Wilnerness590

Anyone spend any time here: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-live-spring-training-news-tweets/

".....you're trying to have it both ways, CF....."

Not at all.  Last year Sanchez and Stroman were brought to the majors much earlier than many people had expected. Both of them absolutely thrived in that situation.  From that experience, 92-93 apparently wants us to conclude that Castro and Osuna should NOT be brought early to the majors.  In fact the obvious conclusion, from the Sanchez and Stroman experience, is that the Jays have a good eye for when is the right time to bring young players into the majors.  If they assess that Castro and Osuna are now ready, they have a recent track record of being correct about these things.  I think the Jays have earned the right to be trusted about these things.  (They were wrong, obviously, about the correct time to bring Snider to the majors -- the correct answer turned out to be "age 26" rather than "age 20."  But I don't think the Snider mistake outweighs the success of the Stroman and Sanchez move.)

The other important point:  there is absolutely no pressure on the Jays to promote Castro and Osuna so early.  This is not some crowd-pleasing populist move.  Every fan would have been perfectly content if the Jays did the "safe" thing by leaving Castro and Osuna in the minors for the full season.  For the Jays to take such an unexpected move, knowing that they would only be criticized for it by many fans, tells me that Castro and Osuna have forced their hand.  It tells me that the Jays must be very convinced by the abilities of both pitchers.  I don't see any way the Jays would do this if it was a "meh" move, a 50-50 gamble, or a very risky leap in the dark.  Why would they take such a chance, with zero pressure from anyone, unless their coaches and scouts and managers were absolutely convinced that both pitchers can handle it?  I don't see any alternative explanation -- except, of course, the 92-93 claim that the Jays are just "ludicrous." I suppose that's possible -- the Jays were seized by a massive outbreak of absurdity and fell into temporary insanity. 

Having said all that, of course it's a gamble.  Nothing is certain in the world.  There's a chance, in my view, that yes, both of them could fail.  Every baseball move is a calculated estimate with no guarantee of success.  But the evidence, in my view, suggests that it's a chance worth taking.

I have never suggested that Castro & Osuna should not be brought to the majors if they are the best options for this team. I am fully in favour of taking the best team north, and I think especially with young pitching prospects that it's silly to worry about the service time game.

The only thing I was getting at was that if the Jays weren't planning on taking them north, China fan would be in here vehemently defending how important the depth game is, and how it doesn't make sense to lose guys like Drabek when you can use options to manipulate your roster.

But hey, thank god the Jays went with an 8 man bullpen so they could see what they had in Jeremy Jeffress. Always trust the FO.

stay down, china. I already threw the towel in for you.

I'm calling that scrap a majority draw, Uglyone.  No need for any towel throwing, a good 92-93 / ChinaFan scrap is worth the price of admission any day, up there with an SS rant, a magpie reminiscence, or a mylegacy exposition on the value of a good single malt. 

Oh and one other thing - aggressively touting and promoting prospects is absolutely a crowd-pleasing, populist move. Why would they be criticized for it by fans? Fans criticize when they DON'T get to see the prospects you've been hyping, not the other way around. The types of fans who are worried about team control and 2021 make up an incredibly small portion of the fan base. One of the hallmarks of a GM under fire is the last ditch effort to show the results of their efforts, and demonstrating the depth of your system through the prospects you've collected is the primary way of doing so. It leads to things like Ricciardi rushing up Travis Snider, or Omar Minaya bringing Jenrry Meria north as a reliever years before he was ready for MLB. I was reading Steve Simmons the other day, and his enthusiasm for AA and the job he is doing should make it very clear that GMs have every incentive to create buzz around prospects, especially when their job has been declared as being on the line by pretty much every media member. I'm sure many of you in here have lots of friends who are casual Jays fans, I know I do. And they are all excited about one thing - the depth of the Jays young arms they keep hearing about.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/03/28/anthopoulos-draft-record-shows-his-true-value-as-jays-gm

"Any mention of Alex Anthopoulos being on the firing line should end now.

It is borderline ridiculous to consider dismissing the Blue Jays general manager, now or at the end of the season, no matter who ends up replacing Paul Beeston as president of the club.

What Anthopoulos was hired to do was replenish the Blue Jays flow of talent: So all he has done since being hired was select Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris and Marcus Stroman in consecutive major league drafts. In those same drafts, he came away with starting centre fielder Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar"

92-93, doesn't it seem that Jeffress was actually worth the roster machinating after all?

any sense of whether the wilkins claim means that smoak is on thin ice?  he has been underwhelming to say the least thus far, but just today we saw Edwin miss an errant donaldson throw - how's wilkins' glove? 

drabek for wilkins is a good swap.

wilkins has actually performed well in the minors. Nothing awesome and way old for his levels but might be useful at some point.

1B A.Wilkins (26, 6'2"/225lbs)

AAA (24-25): 763pa, 6.3bb%, 18.7k%, .232iso, .308babip, .285/.330/.517/.847, 130wrc+
AA (23-24): 787pa, 12.8bb%, 19.3k%, .187iso, .292iso, .257/.353/.444/.797, 127wrc+
A+ (22-22): 556pa, 10.1bb%, 16.4k%, .207iso, .298babip, .278/.349/.485/.834, 136wrc+

not a bad K rate for a guy with legit power, even if he did K in half his PAs in his cup of coffee in mlb last year. though the BB% falling so low in AAA might be a clear warning side.

of course, what might be more important are his platoon splits:

MILB Totals

vLHP: 634pa, 6.9bb%, 19.9k%, .198iso, .276babip, .253/.303/.451/.754
vRHP: 1469pa, 11.0bb%, 17.6k%, .212iso, .309babip, .281/.361/.493/.854

that's an encouraging split vRHP. could be a francisco type but with less power and fewer Ks.

If he was, maybe they shouldn't have cut bait after 3 innings!

The Wilkins claim is interesting, because it creates a bit of a logjam with Colabello and Barton. Probably just trying to throw as much at the wall as possible.

I never liked Colabello. Righty DH never seemed like a fit to me, even if he suddenly became a passable hitter at 31.

I thought francis might be pitching his way into a bullpen spot but I'm guessing he gets cut now after today's performance.

Jeffress had a good 28.2 innings with Milwaukee, but let's see if he can keep it up. This spring he's walked 6 in 9.1 IP against AAA-quality pitching (8.0 on BRef's opp. quality scale). His career BB/9 IP is 5.0 in the majors and 5.2 in the minors, although he did improve on those numbers in 2013 and 2014.

I'm pretty excited about this season. Even with the injury to Stroman, the Jays are an interesting team that has a legit chance of making the playoffs. Three keys to a successful season will be (1) health, (2) young players performing well (no doubt there will be some struggles, but with luck many players will hold their own or excel), (3) Rogers not starving the team of needed funds at the trade deadline. I think Martin and Donaldson are going to help this ballclub stay relevant.

yes, yes and yes on your three keys Greenfrog.

I would have to say that Colt Hynes is the man if we go with three lefties.  He's looked great and Francis has been very hittable. 

I thought today was the first day I saw Travis scuffle a little on defence. He wasn't terrible and if his bat is ahead of his glove so be it but there were one or two plays (the bounced stolen base/ball four throw that he didn't block and a dying quail to right field that I thought he quit on a little early). Neither of the plays were errors and maybe even a good 2B man doesn't make those plays but the game turned on those plays. I expect to see him struggle on defense at times this year but everyone has strengths and weaknesses. His bat stings the ball. I would think we will see Goins caddy him in the late innings if the Jays have a lead.

those were tough plays Ogator, but i certainly haven't watched enough to get a sense of his defense overall.  thus far, he looks solid to me, and more athletic than I anticipated.  I do like your idea of Goins as his defensive caddy.  i also like that idea for Reyes, but i can't see Gibbons doing that with a vet ...

Some love for Travis in this fangraphs article from today:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-perkins-varvaro-travis-in-toronto-dozier-ducks-much-more/

I like the A Wilkins pick up because he probably has 3 options left. If he was a Sept call up in 2014 then he would have all 3 options unused.
If he does nothing at the Major League level, we still have a good player for Buffalo. Buffalo is crucial to the success of the Jays IMO because it is so close to Toronto. The Buffalo fans must be kept happy, WIN, WIN, WIN!! We have an express shuttle.

Far be it from me to struggle up from the canvas after that TKO, but I'm reasonably sure that the "hype" claim about Castro and Osuna is just plain wrong. I'm pretty certain that 98% of ordinary Jays fans had never even heard of Castro or Osuna until a few weeks ago.  The Jays would have sold far more tickets if they had signed a well-known veteran free-agent closer like Miller or Robertson, or even a lower-priced free agent, rather than promoting a couple of obscure kids from the lower minors.  And what 92-93 characterizes as the "hype" about them was just the normal media coverage that always results when a couple of unknown players make an impression at spring training.  Nobody knew anything about them, so the media logically wrote stories to explain why these kids had a chance to make the roster.  This wasn't some cynical corporate exercise in fooling the masses and creating false idols for the fans to worship.  It was a normal scouting assessment in which the Jays simply identified the best players in the system for the bullpen vacancies. 

And by the way, I've never been a big fan of Drabek since his TJ surgery, and I don't see any parallel between him and Jeffress.  I always recognized that Drabek might have a slight edge in the bullpen race because he was out of options, but I never argued that he must be kept on the roster for that reason alone.  Jeffress, at this point, clearly has a better record and greater potential.  Comparing 2014 and 2015 is apples and oranges, to be honest.

One thing the Jays misread last spring was McGowan's viability as a candidate for the rotation. Lots of people jumped on that bandwagon, but I never really felt he would hold up in that role (Gibbons didn't either, but the call apparently wasn't his to make). He more or less flamed out (5.08 ERA as a starter) and ended up back in the 'pen, where he was somewhat better. But his season ended up being pretty much a dud (-0.4 fWAR).

If Dickey throws around 200 innings his 2016 option will likely be picked up, so you're looking at 73m for the team's veteran core.

Reyes 22m
Martin 15m
Bautista 14m
Dickey 12m
Encarnacion 10m

And, except for Martin, their contracts will all expire after 2016. Anyone else think that AA is salivating at the prospect of making FOUR QOs? Is this the new market inefficiency? Good/great players with some game left that you can QO? If you add in Buehrle after this year, that might be five extra draft picks in 2 years.. You gotta imagine that, barring them falling off a cliff, all of Buerhle, Reyes, Bautista, Dickey and Encarnacion will find employment for 2017... Maybe not Dickey, since he's around 40 at that point (IIRC).

For a guy like AA who loves to sign prospects the next few years could be a bonanza.  The Jays are going over budget according to all rumours to sign a batch of top international free agents (Vlad Jr being prime among them).  Add bonus picks as they lose a few expensive 30+ players and the farm should be well stocked for a long time.

Makes me wonder if AA has a total number that he has for the season including draft spending, salaries and international spending. And he refuses to sacrifice that for the MLB payroll. Just a curious thought I just had.

You've been mentioning some very interesting stuff.

When Drabek was acquired, did A.A. and his Team see any pre-1st T.J. Surgery pitching feeds/film of Drabek pitching? I recall seeing people here and elsewhere talking about his delivery issues. If he hadn't changed anything that got him hurt, why didn't Toronto? If he had changed things, did he make it worst, or just different bad? I don't think we'll ever know for sure what's accurate. I do think that after the 2nd T.J. Surgery, all responsibility for knowing what to do must rest with Drabek. He must have known how remote his chances of being a Starter once again were, or he should ask. If necessary change what you throw. Just find pitches you can throw effectively, consistently with command and control. I think results explain everything. He's about to become expensive soon and he still isn't very good. Good decision to let him go.

The Andy Wilkins claim is interesting. He apparently can be a monster with the bat. Apparently 45 PAs are enough to decide he can't hit MLB pitching. With Wilkins having options left, this seems more like a trade than a waiver claim. This is a huge acquisition for Buffalo and might work out for the MLB/Jays side in time.

I thought McGowan should have been stretched out as a Starter in the Spring of 2014. That's about the best way to develop Relievers who can pitch multiple innings. If the entire offseason and Spring hadn't turned into such a dumbed up disaster/cluster eff , it wouldn't have been an issue. It was time to get younger, healthier and better so it was better to not keep him.

If you need something to do visit other team blogs and read the comments to the articles. It just might be possible Toronto has fewer issues than most other teams. So far the Jays have the best Pitching in the Majors this Spring and that never happens for this Team. Defense when the regulars play is much better than I expected and it should get better. I believe the offense will be better 1-9 than most people expect. They seem to be having better ABs than expected chasing fewer bad pitches and that's better than expected.

Tuesday's supposed to be the day Gibbons announces the 25-Man Roster and it's unlikely to hold many surprises. The elephant in the room is the Navarro trade. What trade you say? Exactly.

I suspect all Teams have a budget number for all things and everything they need to do. That I believe covers more than just the Roster. Alex Anthopoulos should know how much he's using in the June Rule 4 draft. He could max it out here as the maximum penalty, that's not cash, is losing two first round picks. He can give Buehrle a Qualifying Offer after this Season (2015) and give both Dickey and Bautista Qualifying Offers after next Season (2016). A.A. probably knows who he wants in the July 2nd Draft and who he might also get so he's made provision for how much he spends here. Alex said early in the Offseason that he'd liked a Reliever very much but that he'd signed elsewhere. He never said it was for more money than he wanted to spend. So I expect he has more money than we think. I just don't think he was willing to spend/overspend on players who might not be better than anyone he already had. I think he had a number he could go to if needed, but had a lower range he would operate in, unless something special happened. (EG.: $150.0 MM with $135.0 MM - $140.0 MM as his operating range.) I don't think he would let another year like last year occur. I just don't think he's willing to spend money for less than the best he can get/want.

Very few people are going to go get themselves seasons tickets because the team they root for just signed a closer.

As the offseason unfolded, there was a debate about the bullpen and the importance of its improvement. Some, including China fan, were squarely on the side that the team needs to add 2-3 RP. I felt the team desperately needed a SP, and that by adding one the bullpen would figure itself out. I felt (and still feel) there were other holes on the team that needed to be addressed first if the team actually had money to add talent. Nobody was talking about Miguel Castro in the bullpen, and when Gerry put him in the BB Top 10 he expected him to begin the year in Dunedin. We only started hearing Castro's name flown around after it became readily apparent the team's offseason was more or less over, and that they weren't going to be doing anything to address a bullpen that was already short arms and losing its closer. This followed a mention in payroll increase that never materialized as well as a Gregor Chisholm article explaining how next year's option buyouts have to be factored in to the potential 2015 budget. People were getting frustrated that the team hadn't really done anything since the early moves on Martin, Donaldson, and Saunders once they started to realize the offseason was done.

In fact, the first mention I can see of Miguel Castro being a bullpen candidate in 2015 came straight from AA's mouth, and it was during a January conversation with McCown about the payroll and bullpen. It isn't a coincidence that AA brought up Miguel Castro right after Janssen, Papelbon, and Sanchez as a starter discussions - he was planting the seed that would turn into "normal media coverage". Talking about 101 MPH fastballs are what some might call hype.

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/01/28/anthopoulos-speaks-on-the-budget-shields-janssen-sanchez-papelbon-roster-holes-and-more/

“I know I’ve said this before — we’re very high on a kid named Miguel Castro. Has a changeup as good as you’re going to see from the right side, and a fastball that will get up to 97, 98 — it’s been up to 101. Started with the Vancouver Canadians last year. We moved him up to Dunedin at the end of the year, we’re bringing him to camp. We think as a reliever — he throws strikes. He’s going to get a chance to make the team. I don’t expect him to, but I think he’ll open up some eyes, and I think he’s got a chance to come quick and be here. So… we’re going to give a lot of guys some opportunities.”

I'm all for starting the season with Castro in Toronto, but I can still feel it's a result of a lack of depth stemming from an offseason of limited activity to actually address the team's holes. In an ideal world what's best for the team always matches up with what's best for the player's development, but if it doesn't you don't necessarily need to hamstring your MLB team by always trying to maximize a pitcher's value by taking it slow and letting him cook as an SP across the various levels.

Reply to VW_fan17 re: FOUR QOs

I never thought of that. No panic at all for those kinds of very good players at waning part of career that we have so many of. If they stay for one more year at a time - great - if not then thanks for a great draft pick and use the $$ elsewhere. Ultra Low risk. Sure offer some longer term extensions to be nice - but its good to know the alternative is acceptable

Re: big hit to our prospect lists: man if all/most of these rookies make it at MLB level then we'll have lots of time to restock & develop those high upside at lower levels.

The MLB qualifying offer was at 15.3m this year, and 14.1m the year prior. I don't think the Jays are going to be willing to pay Buehrle 16m+ next year, regardless of how this season plays out. If the team goes to the playoffs he may be willing to come back for less, though.

if he keeps on trucking at his usual 3war pace, a 1yr/$15m deal is very good value.

Yeah, if Buehrle keeps on Buhrlin (thanks for the verb Stoeten) he gets a QO, no question.

also, 92-93, I seem to recall AA talking about Castro as an arm in the pen as early as the end of last season.

I remember hearing Alex Anthopoulos talking on one of his talks/appearances on a Fan 590 show late last season. He mentioned the performance of Osuna first then mentioned Castro and how the organization had missed them/fallen asleep on the job. He said they would be moving fast and added something about needing to make changes in how pitchers are evaluated.

I just don't think he'd come across anyone with their stuff, with their command and with their control.

I fully expect any and all Pitchers with the stuff, plus the command and control that Castro and Osuna show to move fast, with inning limits ignored. A season in the Bullpen, then a season or two as Starters and Relievers before becoming just Starters if they can.

I don't think inning limits matter than much any more. It's going to be about each Pitcher's work load and not letting pitchers get arm tired or pitch hurt.

roster predictions before gibby's big reveal tommorrow:

1. SS Reyes
2. C Martin
3. RF Bautista
4. DH Encarnacion
5. 3B Donaldson
6. 1B Smoak
7. LF Pillar
8. 2B Travis
9. CF Pompey

B. Valencia
B. Tolleson
B. Goins
B. Navarro

IR: Saunders, Izturis


SP Hutchison
SP Dickey
SP Norris
SP Buehrle
SP Sanchez

CL Cecil
SU Loup
SU Estrada
MR Redmond
MR Hendriks
MR Hynes
MR Castro

IR: Stroman, Santana

Closest Calls: Gindl, Barton, Osuna

Casey Janssen about to get an MRI on his sore shoulder. Possible bullet dodged?

Casey Janssen about to get an MRI on his sore shoulder. Possible bullet dodged?

Well, either that, or, his usual spring training injury where he's out for 2-3 weeks at the start. Janssen's always been somewhat fragile and can't be used 2 days in a row very often, etc..

He's sort of the pitching version of Adam Lind.

some interesting possible SP names getting cut, like J.Chacin and P.Maholm.

Id have interest in Chacin. Between Wolf, Francis and Santana we probably have a Maholm equivalent in house.

Every teams moneyball at BP featured the Jays today.  The takeaway is that AA has done a great job selling high on prospects who still have lot of development left to do - they often have yet to make AA.  Chris Mosch speculates that the Jays are trying to identify which of their prospects to keep and which may be overrated by the league.

We’ve seen evidence that top-10 prospects who have been traded away over the past 25 years have fared worse than those who weren’t dealt, with the most reasonable explanation stemming from the information advantage front offices have about their own prospects compared to the rest of the league. If Toronto’s constant signing and selling of high-ceiling prospects is in fact a conscious effort, perhaps leveraging the information advantage is the driving motivation behind it.... By hoarding so many high-ceiling prospects, it would follow that there would be a few that stick out internally as guys the organization feel less confident about relative to the industry consensus. This could have very well been the case when deciding whether to send Syndergaard or Sanchez to the Mets as the key secondary piece for Dickey

At the time of the Happ deal I thought AA had paid way too much talent, but certainly in retrospect that move seems to fit the 'sell high' model.

1. Barton just got cut.

2. brace yourselves - gibber just said that we may start the year with 8 relievers.

3. better news - gibber just pretty much confirmed no 3 catchers.

4. santiago released

5. navarro has been practicing some 1B

navarro has been practicing some 1B

Has he been practising height?

love that article jer.

I love prospects, but I love selling high on them even more.

people - even baseball people - don't have a real appreciation of just how often prospects bust. even the top prospects. billy beane is one who seems to understand that.

if AA is indeed one of the few with a good grip on that attrition rate, and it seems he might, then that's a great advantage.

for example, why the sox won't give up a swihart or owens for Hamels ia beyond me. chances either of them are ever as good as hamels is slim.

"Has he been practising height?"

he's relying on volume I think.

I mean, it still makes for a "big target", no?

At 5'9", 205, Dioner will make a wide target if not a tall one.  I guess Donaldson and Reyes have more issues with throwing the ball in the dirt, so it might work. A bench of Navarro, Goins and Valencia, I guess. 

Eight relievers and no Delabar (because he can't throw more than one inning?).  Maybe they'll have Osuna on the roster to help Castro get acclimated and six other relievers.  Presumably, one of the relievers gets sent down when Saunders comes off the DL. 

I mean, it still makes for a "big target", no?

Well, Josh Donaldson certainly won't be squinting from the other corner of the infield, wondering where on earth his first baseman is.

Navarro would generate a great deal of gravity. Maybe that could cause errant throws to bend in his direction.

I'm not sure if they sold high on Kendall Graveman. Josh Donaldson is a stud but they paid a very serious price for his studliness.

graveman should be a good test of this, for sure.

superficially, it does look like a perfect sell high - one good year where he was old for levels, didn't K many guys, for a guy with only a couple of pitches. usually that's the profile of a guy who doesn't last long in mlb.

but maybe he's different. he's dominated this spring.....but then again, he's still not striking anyone out.

barreto should also be a good test of this theory.

I am not a huge fan of the BP study.  There is a lot of difference of opinion about who is a #1 prospect and when.  It seems to really matter for BP, you'll rarely find consensus on the point. Anyways, there's a bit of a bias.  Teams are more willing to trade top prospects with known problems- Delmon Young and Josh Hamilton would be good examples- than those without them like Mike Trout.  That observation applies to not only prospects but good young players as well.

Graveman was not "sell high".  He had very modest trade value, and would (in my view) have had at least as much value to the Jays in 2015 as to the A's.

What interests me more is the relatively simple baseball trades- like Gose for Travis.  The Jays had Pompey and a hole at second base,  the Tigers had Kinsler and a hole in centerfield.  Ergo, the trade makes a lot of sense from a positional perspective.  I happen to like Travis more than Gose, but this is a trade that could work out for both teams. 

Is there a rule preventing the Jays from keeping Norris down until the 5th game of the season, and then calling him up (hopefully) for good?

"Maybe they'll have Osuna on the roster to help Castro get acclimated and six other relievers."

Now you're just trolling Mike. They are going to go with an 8 man bullpen and include Roberto Osuna so he can be Miguel Castro's personal translator?

Graveman has had a heck of a spring.  5 starts, 21 1/3 IP 0.42 ERA, 4 BB vs 11 SO.  guys with a sub 5 K/9 rate tend to not last.  I'd love to see him have a ML career though - he was a cheap draft pick not a guy who should've made it.  Odds against him were crazy but here he is.  Reports I'm reading online suggest he is in line for the #5 slot in the A's rotation.

Davidi has an... interesting... article about Smoak's defense on Sportsnet.ca where he uses DRS to illustrate the Jays' terrible 1B defense over the last two years, and then gushes over what an improvement a great defender like Smoak would be, while ignoring Smoak's own -12 DRS over those same two seasons. Yeah he's better, but he still isn't any good. Also, he can't hit.

I honestly expected a lot better from Davidi; he never really struck me before as being from the "never let the facts get in the way of a good story" school of sports journalism.

Back in November, Dave Cameron made the same point about the Gose-Travis trade in a nice writeup:

[B]oth guys bring enough to the table that this is the kind of small move that could look like an underrated pickup for both sides. I think it probably has a better chance to work out for Toronto long term, but like Jeff noted earlier, the Tigers don’t really care about the long term. They made their 2015 team better than it was. That’s what they’re going to do this winter.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/blue-jays-and-tigers-make-minor-trade-that-might-matter/

he's dominated this spring....

Assuming no doubleplays behind him, I am seeing opponents going 10 for 53 off him, for a .189 BABIP. Safe to say that ain't going to last.

That said, he has logged 212 inning in the minors and majors (albeit just 4.2 in the latter) during which he has yielded just 5 homeruns and walked just 44. Both of those rates will forgive a low K rate. Steamer and ZIPS, however, have him just a shade over replacement value.

Scott Downs was just released. Do we need a LOOGY?

No to Scott Downs. The Jays are taking Castro instead.

Just goes to show the difference in Catchers, Norris is better than this shows. Why are the Jays keeping Navarro again? Because he's hitting well? Really?

Mike Green - you made a few points there.

I definitely agree that the gose/travis deal is a fascinating challenge trade featuring 2 oppositely built and developed 24yr olds.....but I think bp (and I ) were talking more about moving kids for proven vets.

As for Graveman...he was nothing at all this time last year, had a huge year moving four levels up to the bigs, and given that the As are slotting him in their rotation right now, they obviously valued him. thst could easily turn out to be a sell high move.

as for BPs thesis in general, it definitely rings true to me. I remember going through all the big prospects-for-stars trades a couple years back, like teixiera, sabathia, etc. and noticing that the team getting the star almost always won the trade, no matter how good the prospects were. and these weren't just flawed disposable prospects but elite ones like say Smoak. these weren't prospects that teams wanted to give up, but that they had to give up to get the star.

this is also why I loved when the royals traded for Shields, even when all the prospect guys thought they were crazy. the royals were well experienced in the disappointment of elite prospects, and they finally learned and traded some for a stud instead. and they made the playoffs because of it.

this is also why I loved the Donaldson deal, even though I loved the kids we gave up.

"Maybe they'll have Osuna on the roster to help Castro get acclimated and six other relievers."

Now you're just trolling Mike. They are going to go with an 8 man bullpen and include Roberto Osuna so he can be Miguel Castro's personal translator?

Devil, sometimes.  Troll, never.  What I imagine is that the club might decide to carry Osuna but only use him in very low leverage situations.  As you might do with a Rule 5 player. 

go figure norris, castro, and osuna had to get roughed up a bit in their last outings just to get me worried again

Is there a rule preventing the Jays from keeping Norris down until the 5th game of the season, and then calling him up (hopefully) for good?

If they option him to start the season, he can't be called up for 10 days unless he's replacing someone going on the DL.

What do you mean by "won" the trade, uglyone?  Most subsequent WAR?  Most subsequent surplus value (which takes account of salary)?  Something else?

The nature of a prospect for veteran trade usually involves the possibility of a possible high later surplus value for a team not yet able to contend in exchange for a higher possibility of a significantly lower current surplus value for a team in contention.  Hence, Dale Murray for Dave Collins and Fred McGriff.  Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell. You have to tally up a lot of these trades to see who it worked out for (and acknowledge that it might have worked out for both teams- as say Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz). 

looks like norris recovered nicely. 8ks in 6ip, 5 hits and 1 walk. 2 of those hits were homers though.

mike - to be honest the comparison wasn't all that close. the teams getting the vet stars almost always got a very good player performance, while the team getting the prospects rarely did. some of the prospects turned out and ended up making the trades even, but there weren't many where the prospect end won. there were some though.

but its probsbly time to look at the numbers again. its been a while.

pretty sure norris leads all spring training with 29 Ks now. in 24.2ip.

same guy who led the minors in k/9;last year.

Hence, Dale Murray for Dave Collins and Fred McGriff.  Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell.

well sure Mike, if you want to cite only a handful of the most infamous missteps of the modern baseball era.  prospects are like a lottery - when you hit it, it's memorable.  AA's willingness to deal them - and lose the odd Yan Gomes - makes him fearless and strategic in my mind - but everybody brings up that one damn deal.

I would love to see deeper analysis into this question involving  career WAR, salaries, etc - anyone up for the task? 

without the number-crunching, ive got to agree 100% with Uglyone - proven talent is worth more than prospects in the current market.

Nice "bad" outing for Norris- he gave up 4 runs in 3 innings and then settled in to go 6.  He was facing a major league lineup. 

You've missed the point, jerjapan.  I am not suggesting that one team or another invariably "wins" a trade depending on whether prospects or established players are brought in/given up.  I am saying that there is no one right way to measure it.  For instance, in 2011 at the deadline, the Phillies acquired Hunter Pence at the deadline from the Astros for a package of players including Jarred Cosart and Jon Singleton.   The Phillies assumed part of his $7 million salary that year, and he played very well in the regular season as the Phillies finished first in their division.  Unfortunately, he did nothing the playoffs and the Phillies fell in 5 games in the ALDS.  His salary for 2012 was $10 million and through the deadline he wasn't earning his keep, so the Phils traded him to the Giants for Seth Rosin, Tommy Joseph and Nate Schierholtz. 

How do you measure who "won" the Phillies-Astro trade?  And when? 

Thanks, James W. I guess the optional assignment doesn't start until the MLB season opens up.

go figure norris, castro, and osuna had to get roughed up a bit in their last outings just to get me worried again

Didn't there used to be an axiom about not putting too much stock in pitching lines during the last week or so of ST?

According to a Jeff Blair column, the Jays might be taking a new philosophy of using the bullpen as the entry point for all young pitchers when they reach the majors.  Very interesting quotes from Anthopoulos:  "With Osuna and all these guys, we’re really starting to be big believers in breaking guys into the majors as relievers like the industry used to do,” Anthopoulos said in a text exchange Monday. “You definitely get to monitor workload that way for the first time in the major leagues. Ideally … we would break all our pitchers in out of the bullpen.”

Any thoughts on this?  It does potentially shed new light on the Castro/Osuna controversy this spring.

Here's the Blair column:    http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jays-taking-old-school-approach-young-arms/

On the likely decision to begin the season with 8 relievers:  there's a bunch of reasons why it makes sense at this time.

1) Due to their minor injuries, Cecil and Estrada haven't had enough of a spring workload to build up their strength fully.
 
2) The Jays have Sanchez and Norris in the rotation.  They don't want to be forced to keep those two pitchers in games for lengthy outings if they are tiring.  They want the ability to bring them out after 5 or 6 innings if necessary.  An extra reliever makes it easier for them to do that.

3) They like Hendriks.  More than I realized.  There are quotes from Gibbons about how much better he looks as a reliever, rather than a starter.

4) The only cost for the 8th reliever is the temporary demotion of Goins for a week or two.   During that time, Reyes is expected to play every game anyway.   The only risk is a mid-game injury to Reyes.  In that scenario, Tolleson would have to cover SS for a couple of emergency innings, but it's really not likely.  You can't build your entire roster for every game on the basis of having a top-quality back-up for every position.  That's what Buffalo is for.

5) After a week or two, it should be much easier to get Hendriks through waivers.

It's very short sided not to have a suitable backup at each position and Reyes is probably the most injury prone player on the team at this point. I don't see how April is the perfect time to play someone every day when that person hasn't played a complete game since September. Didn't he sprain his ankle in April 2 year ago or did I dream that?  Last year's team always had 1 or 2 day-to-day guys on the bench while the 8th reliever was hardly used.

Navarro has had a terrible spring.

replacement level would be 0war. 1.5-2.0war like travis projects to is more aptly described as "league average".

It's not that simple. Apparently WAR was adjusted down in March 2013 such that 2013 MLB has 1000 WAR in the entire major leagues. You can find a lot of guys in the minors worth 1 or 2 WAR, hence the replacement value is around those lines. It's not calibrated so that backup produce 0 WAR.

The WAR-related article that Scott is referring to.

It serves as a good reminder to not get so enamoured with the metric, regardless of whose version, that we start looking at digits after the decimal point as light rather than noise.

It's very short sided not to have a suitable backup at each position and Reyes is probably the most injury prone player on the team at this point.

Conceivably, scott, it could be “short sided”; but I think the term you want is “short-sighted”.  No charge.

(And Chuck, wouldn't it be "signal" to "noise".  Just checking.)

Da Box is soo high maintenance.

Per Shi Davidi: "#BlueJays say Devon Travis, Justin Smoak, Steve Tolleson, Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar make team"

John Lott confirms Thole is going to AAA. He says Goins' roster spot depends on how many relievers they carry, which is yet to be determined.

And Chuck, wouldn't it be "signal" to "noise".

I was mixing heat/light and signal/noise metaphors. Was I doing so intentionally, for purpose, or unintentionally, as a rube might? I'll let you decide... or perhaps you already have!

Chuck, don't worry you're among friends. As for their being "rube(s)" on the site - pshaw - as far as I know the only rube(s) on the site drink scotch - single malt of course... and who could possibly be that rube(ish)?

Is it opening day yet?

Ah, Chuck, I confess I hadn't even thought of that!  (tips cap)

My Legacy, I've often wondered how you feel about Irish single malts (they invented the stuff, you know).  I can recommend Connemara's peated single malt.  An ounce or so in your porridge is a splendid way to start the day.  Try it.

What's up with two spaces after a period?

I am not a fan of an 8 man bullpen, for any reason.

What's up with two spaces after a period?

Dates back to life on a typewriter.

With our current roster construction I feel that an 8 man bullpen is unnecessary even in the early part of the year.

- Our affiliate is in Buffalo
- We have already used options on Castro and presumably Osuna we might as well take advantage of the shuttle we can put them on in an emergency
- We have plenty of long-ish options in the pen
- We have the likes of Chad Jenkins on the 40 man already just waiting for the call.

Just burn through your relievers in the 1 game and call up guys as needed- especially with Tolleson making the roster- Goins would be pretty nice as an extra bench option as defensive replacement and pinch runner.

scott and chuck - what you are talking about is an improvement in WAR. a feature, not a bug.

fangraphs and B/R talked to each other to improve their definition of replacement value, and in the process fangraphs raised theirs while BR dropped theirs, with the new number (.294w%/1000war) ending up near exactly Tom Tango's original formulation (.292w%/1009war).

what this did was get a more accurate replacement baseline for all WAR calculations. So its even more accurate to say replacement = 0war and average = 2war than it was before.

the details are here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/unifying-replacement-level/

the new number is validated by numerous ways of evaluating replacement level, which this article gives some examples of:

"There are a variety of ways you can measure what kind of expected performance you might get from a replacement level player. A few months ago, I looked at the performance of position players who were acquired via minor league contract or waiver claim this winter, and over the last two seasons, those 24 players had accumulated almost exactly zero WAR in over 10,000 plate appearances. So, that suggests that the baseline has always been in the right neighborhood, at least.

That’s not the only way to figure out where replacement level should be, however. We can also look at the worst performances of players who have long Major League careers, and see what the minimum level of production teams have required in order to keep a player in the league for an extended number of years rather than simply swapping them out for someone else. Major League teams don’t always evaluate talent perfectly, but if they were continually employing players that were below our established replacement level for 10 to 15 years, it would be a pretty good sign that our replacement level was too high, and that they couldn’t simply replace these guys with someone better with minimal effort.

That’s not what we see, however. If you use .294 as the replacement level, 627 of the 628 players with at least 6,000 Major League plate appearances — that is, the equivalent of 10 full seasons of regular playing time — have a career WAR north of 0.0. The only player who falls below replacement level with this baseline is Alfredo Griffin, coming in at -1.0 WAR in 7,331 plate appearances, which works out to -0.08 WAR per full season. For all intents and purposes, that’s zero.

You can calculate replacement level a number of different ways, but in the end, it always leads back to a number in this vicinity. Baseball-Reference arrived at a number a little higher than what Tango had used, while we came up with one a little lower. Because they were at opposite ends of the defensible spectrum, the different baselines gave a false sense of difference in the actual calculations. Now, with an agreed upon replacement level, those differences that are solely due to scale will go away."

after a slow start hendriks has been very good.

the answer here is to sene osuna down to start in AA.

Viciedo is gone.
Hutch is the opening day starter.

People are freaked out about bringing up Osuna and Sanchez. I think it is a great idea (other than burning options). You can put young players in the bullpen and in situations where they can succeed. For example, could you imagine how Osuna would feel to play in Yankee stadium when the Jays are winning 8-0 and he comes in to mop up the 8th. The good players seem to be able to rise up to the challenge. I always think of Roy Holliday.

Also, without Osuna and Sanchez, our bullpen would be essentially the same as last year. It would be a big sigh comes to mind. This year really depends on 2 starting rookies and 2 rookies in the bullpen. We have the offense, even if Pompey and Travis struggle. It is all about pitching.

Brendan Kennedy "tweets" : Valencia and Smoak to "platoon" when EE is DHing.

Valencia (career) vs LHP : .327 .368 .502 .870 (not so worse...)
Smoak (career) vs RHP  :  .224 .318 .391 .709 (meh...)

Since there are more RHP than LHP t'is a pity t'aint Valencia's stats that favour the RHPers. However, by no stretch of the imagination does that mean we have a "Black Hole" at first.

looks like the opening day lineup playing today.

with the interesting part being pompey slotting in at #6 ahead of smoak pillar travis

I don't care so much about Osuna and Castro out of the pen. It's a lot easier being a reliever than a starter. I am a bit concerned about two-fifths of our starting rotation having one major league start combined.

I still predict that the combination of improvement, playing at the RC, and defensive ability will mean that Smoak is the full time 1B by the end of May.

mylegacy yeah that's league averagish from smoak and way above for valencia, which would be very nice production from a #7 slot.

but while valencia is a pretty safe bet there, smoak is questionable. he didnt come near that last year. then again, finding league avg production vRHP from a 1B/Dh type shouldn't be hard even if smoak fails. barton and wilkins and many others might be able to do it. So could Juan Francisco.

if the rooks can just not embarass themselves this year (and we avoid too many injuries of course) I don't think there'll be the big "holes" at the bottom of the lineup that everyone is predicting.

Since there are more RHP than LHP t'is a pity t'aint Valencia's stats that favour the RHPers.

For what Valencia does to LHP (870 OPS), there's a word for doing that against RHP: Lind (860 OPS).

Chuck - toucheh (Canadian English spelling of French word having to do with something or other about swords or fencing or the spacing of shrubs, or some such...)

If I read right, a high priority has been put on keeping Tolleson in the organization. I confess that I don't understand this.  With a right-handed second baseman starting and a switch-hitter due off the DL fairly soon, it seems to me to be a low priority for scarce bench spots.  It's not as though they need a RH pinch-hitter off the bench- Pillar can pinch-hit for Saunders (if desired) and Valencia is around as well. 

I guess we'll know more when the 25 man is confirmed. 

I would like to very briefly discuss the treatment of Ramon Santiago. I didn't really want him to make the team but I think that he was simply released is deplorable. I know, I know, the Blue Jays were only behaving as the MLB players agreement allows them nay encourages them, to behave but Santiago was clearly injured on the job and is unable to work because of the injury he sustained in the employ of the Blue Jays and that the Blue Jays are able to simply walk away from that obligation stinks. I think they owe him (morally not legally) whatever medical expenses he faces and whatever rehab costs he incurs.
Okay, go back to arguing about who is going to be the 25th man.

AA on the radio sounds like he's working on adding RP from outside. says only cecil and loup are locks. also repeats that his analytics guys love smoak.

also, Travis says this is the best day if his life.

and saunders is back running today.

While I'm definitely no Smoak fanboy, I remain mildly optimistic.  I don't think it can be emphasized enough how much better Smoak was away from Safeco.  Over his career, OPS is 80 points better on the road.  730 OPS away from Safeco, even with the horrible years he has had.  Now you put that bat into Rogers center, and that has to add at least 20 points doesn't it?  Is it unreasonable to expect a .750 OPS from Smoak playing his homes games in RC?  Another thing to consider is Smoak's career Babip is .260, about 40 points below league average.  .235 at Safeco, .280 on the road.  And lastly, Smoak has flyball tendencies.  Lets look at career rates (keeping in mind his home ball park).  42 % flyball hitter.  HR/FB rate is 12%.  So if he got 600 plate appearancies, that's about 255 flyballs.  At a 12% HR clip, that's 30 dingers.  Now again, move that into RC.

All of this is back of the napkin math, but I think there is plenty of reason to be at least mildly optimistic about Smoak now that he's out of Safeco and into RC.

All IMHO of course.

ogator I'm pretty sure they're paying for his rehab. the release was probably a favor to him. I seem to remember a similar situation last year or the year before.

I am embarrassed to be ignorant of any general disability plan that covers players during spring training.  It seems that generally players are expected to self-insure whether it be for accidents or repetitive strain injuries (such as TJ).  It's definitely a big issue for minor leaguers in camp, who may not have enough to adequately self-insure and who may or may not have an adequate earnings base to be able to obtain enough insurance.

It's a very good question, ogator.

Yeah I don't think the Jays can be criticized for releasing Santiago when there's no way of knowing anything behind the scenes about that.

Also, this amazing quote should be brought up whenever benches clear, from now on: (Sean Rodriguez got mad that Slowey made a pitch when he thought he'd called time)

"It surprises me to be that upset, and challenging somebody to a physical altercation hardly seems like the best way to resolve your frustrations," Slowey said. "I was kind of taken by surprise at his animosity after his at-bat. I know the kind of guy that he purports to be. That surprised me that that would be his choice of words and reaction. I guess I understand the frustration of a singular failure. It’s a game of failures. But to react that way to me was very surprising."

On principle, I agree that it looks kind of dodgy to release an injured player. But in this case, I'm not sure it's such a big deal - Santiago has made nearly $10 million in his career. He'll be okay.

Someone noted on twitter (can't find the link now that I'm looking for it) that Santiago was eligible for a $100,000 bonus if he was still on the roster at the end of spring, so that was probably a factor. It seems fairly likely that he could sign a minor league deal and rehab with Toronto.

Sanchez - who dat bum?

The game today reminds us of the wildness Sanchez has shown at times throughout his career. It also reminds us that "Young pitchers will break your heart."

MOST IMPORTANT - it reminds us that not only do we have two exceptional young starters (Sanchez and Norris) BUT we have the almost unheard of luxury of having two other young potential "starters" Castro and Osuna on the team at the same time. I would not be in the least surprised to see either Castro or Osuna replace one of Sanchez, or Norris, as a starter this year. For instance, I can see Castro starting in place of Sanchez and Sanchez pitching late innings in the pen.

Has any team, anywhere, at any time, had FOUR young ROOKIE starters, of the caliber of our four, on their team at the same time? I'm ever so delighted - I might even try an Irish single malt - just for a change mind you...

Tellez another one big boy!

A small correction here. Neither Osuna nor Castro have used any options yet, as they haven't been added to the 40-man roster.

The downside of burning through relievers is that any player who is optioned down must remain in the minors for 10 days, unless being called up to replace someone who is placed on the disabled list.

And an addendum to my correction. Adding any player to the 40-man roster does not use an option. Sending them to the minors for at least 20 days in a season will use up one of their options.