Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Spring Training

The Jays have 14 games left in their grapefruit league schedule. Then it is two games in Montreal before they head to New York. The games so far in spring are less meaningful than the next two weeks. Starting pitchers have been pitching two, three or four innings and a lot of innings have been thrown by minor leaguers. But over the upcoming two weeks the starters will be going five, six or seven innings and most reliever innings will be thrown by major leaguers or almost major leaguers.

There are several battles still open in camp and these players need to be watched carefully over the next two weeks.

Here are the questions as I see them:

Overall roster: If we assume the Jays take 13 hitters then the bench will have four players. The players in the competition for those four spots are Dioner Navarro, Josh Thole, Danny Valencia, Ryan Goins, Steve Tolleson and Kevin Pillar. That is six players for four spots. If they are not traded then Navarro and Valencia seem like locks. If Michael Saunders has to start on the DL then there might be an extra spot.

Catcher: Listening to the radio this morning both Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt do not believe that Russ Martin can catch Dickey. If true that would mean the Jays would have to carry three catchers, absent a trade. That really complicates roster construction and is close to impossible. Gibbons today suggested that Martin's experience with calling a game has no value when he is catching Dickey but has a lot of value catching the other guys, particularly the young pitchers. It sounds like Thole will make the team.

First base: no-one has stepped up to take the spot, although per AA on the radio today Smoak's track record and defense give him the inside slot.

Second Base: Izturis, Goins, Tolleson and Travis are all in the mix. Given his inexperience I expect Travis to be sent down, despite his good hitting over the last week. That leaves three players for two spots. It could be a platoon between Goins and one of the right handers. the caveat is that Izturis has not fully recovered from his knee injury and that could open a spot for Tolleson or Travis.

Centre Field: It is Pompey's job to lose but his numbers need to be watched over the next two weeks to see if he is handling it OK. Many rookies have stalled coming out of the gate, we shouldn't assume it's a done deal that Pompey is the guy.

5th Starter: The Jays want Norris to take it and it looks like he will.

Bullpen: Cecil, Loup, Delabar, Redmond, Estrada and Castro makes six with one lefty spot left. Colt Hynes has the inside slot given his performance so far in camp.

If I had to predict what the Jays will do I would say that Navarro will be traded, Thole, Valencia, Pillar and Goins will be on the bench. Izturis will start at second, Smoak at first, Pompey in centre, Norris the #5 and Hynes in the pen with Castro and Estrada.

What say you?

Posted by Gerry on Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 10:57 AM EDT.

Spring Training - Time To get Serious | 186 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

scottt - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#298437) #

In the best of case, Martin and Thole is a wash when catching Dickie. And you want Martin to catch as much of the other pitchers as possible. It's a simple equation.

China fan - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#298438) #

Gerry, I agree with you on the bullpen -- your prediction is basically what I've been saying for a couple of days. One caveat: I think Lopez and Drabek are still in the hunt, possibly competing with Delabar for a bullpen slot. And if the Jays begin the season with 8 relievers, as AA hinted today, there could be room for two of those three (Delabar, Lopez, Drabek). Jenkins is also still in the race. I think Delabar and Jenkins are both penalized by their option status, both still having options.

I agree that Izturis and Smoak look like frontrunners at 2B and 1B, but personally I'd like to see room for Viciedo on the roster -- he brings some serious power that the Jays could use from the DH slot.

Here's the latest Sportsnet report on Castro's near-lock on a bullpen slot:

Miguel Castro may have arrived at spring training as a longshot to break camp with the Toronto Blue Jays, but it would now be a surprise if he doesn�t crack the opening day roster. On Thursday, Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that it would be extremely difficult to keep Castro out of Toronto�s bullpen if his strong spring continues.

�It�s the elephant in the room,� Anthopoulos told Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt on Sportsnet 590 The FAN. �He�s just looked so good. I guess all I�d say at this point is if he continues to perform like this and he was to not make the team and I had my media scrum, I don�t know what I would say as to why he wouldn�t make the team.�

�Castro�s been so dominant to this point � we still have the remaining half � but he�s certainly putting himself in an unbelievable position,� Anthopoulos continued.

ogator - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#298439) #

In the "What a Week" thread there is a quotation from AA saying the Jays "might" have to look outside the organization for help at 1B. When they traded Lind for Estrada, I thought, "Well, Lind can't hit lefties, he gets hurt a lot and he isn't a great defensive first baseman." When they signed Barton and Smoak I thought, "Well, it never hurts to have some insurance in Buffalo."
If the plan now is to start hunting for a first baseman with two weeks left in Spring Training, I am just dumbfounded. I would have thought that the planning would have been a little more farsighted than that.

scottt - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#298440) #

Has Sanchez won the 4th starting spot? Did I miss anything?

Everyone assume Travis goes down, but ideally, you find some way to rehab Izturis and throw Travis in there for a couple of weeks.

Nigel - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#298441) #

I really don't understand the comment about Smoak's defence giving him an advantage. He is not a good defensive 1B - in Vancouver we get many M's games and I have seen a great deal of Smoak. He came out of the draft with a good defensive rep but he just can't play it very well. He has decent lateral range into the hole and that is it. The knowledgeable writers at USSMariner have been ripping his defence for years. Seattle kept trying to find alternatives at the position. Smoak's only role is as a very poor man's Adam Lind. He won't kill you as the LH of a platoon DH. This roster really can't afford that if Thole has to stay.

China fan - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#298442) #

"....Has Sanchez won the 4th starting spot?...."

Yes, according to AA and Gibbons today. The 5th slot is still between Norris and Estrada, although I agree with Gerry that the frontrunner is Norris.

Maldoff - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#298443) #

I think Navarro sticks around as the DH and Edwin plays 1B. In that scenario, I think you could find a spot for Viciedo on the bench as the righty Juan Francisco.

Ryan Day - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#298444) #

I'd rather see just about anyone at 2nd than Izturis, who wasn't looking so hot even before he blew out his knee. I suppose I'd prefer Travis, who has some upside. If not him, Kawasaki or Goins - Goins can't hit, but can at least play some great defence, while Kawasaki does a little bit of everything and remains tremendously entertaining to watch.

China fan - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#298446) #

"....If Michael Saunders has to start on the DL then there might be an extra spot...."

Seems like the obvious way to solve the roster squeeze. Give Saunders a few rehab games in the minors to begin the season. It allows the Jays to keep someone like Tolleson or Viciedo on the roster until mid-April when it's easier to get a player passed through waivers. Pillar could be the starting LF and back-up CF for a couple weeks to start the season. The 4th outfielder could be Viciedo or even Valencia. But I still don't know how to solve the squeeze if the Jays begin the season with 8 relievers or 3 catchers -- or both.

"....I think Navarro sticks around as the DH and Edwin plays 1B. In that scenario, I think you could find a spot for Viciedo on the bench as the righty Juan Francisco...."

This is a solution that I like. But I hope Viciedo could out-perform Francisco over the course of a season. Maybe not, but worth trying.

Mike Green - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#298447) #

If Valencia and Encarnacion are on the roster, Viciedo only has utility with a longer bench (in the Earl Weaver Benny Ayala role- the guy who pinch-hit the key home run for you a few times a year and play outfield or first base in a pinch). This club does not have a long enough bench to warrant the roster spot on Viciedo.

Smoak/Izturis won't be inspiring huge amounts of confidence. Izturis hasn't hit much in the spring and hasn't played in almost a year. Perhaps he's not in the BSOHL.

uglyone - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#298448) #

time for some solidifying ST opinions:

1. As someone who was adamantly opposed to having Thole on the team this year, I have to say that Smoak's complete no-show this apring has me much more eager to see Navarro's bat in the lineup. This is me admitting I was wrong.

The downside here of course is that EE has to play 1B vRHP at least, but if valencia gets all the 1B starts vLHP that shouls eliminate much of the health and defense concerns.

Sidenote: If Christian Vazquez is hurt, I'd love to see AA approach the sox with a navarro-nava proposal.

2. Izturis is toast. He was toast before the injury. He's worse now. Dfa him. He's not even a good bench option as he can't field SS. With Travis coming on strong we just have to give him a shot to start. nothing else makes sense. I would lean towards Kawasaki as the bench IF. he can hack it at SS and xan still have quality AB vRHP.

3. I'm very skeptical of the decision to start Sanchez. I really don't think he'll be effective there. That being said, it's not the end of the world if he fails and moves nack to the pen, so gambling on the upside makes sense.

4. Castro to the pen I feel food and bad about. I think he'll be effective.....but I worry about hom never getting a chance to develop his 3rd/4th pitches. Then again, risking some development of our 6th or 7th best young arm for the sake of contending now isn't something that upsets me too much. I usually complain about people overvaluing prospects at the expenae of team success anyways.

uglyone - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#298449) #

yeesh. sorry for the typos. eating and typing.

Tentative roster:

1. SS Reyes
2. C Martin
3. RF Bautista
4. 1B Encarnacion
5. 3B Donaldson
6. LF Saunders
7. DH Navarro
8. 2B Travis
9. CF Pompey

B. UT Valencia
B. OF Pillar
B. IF Izturis/Kawasaki/Goins
B. C Thole

SP1 Hutchison
SP2 Buehrle
SP3 Dickey
SP4 Norris
SP5 Sanchez

CL Cecil
SU Loup
SU Delabar
MR Redmond
MR Castro
MR Hendriks/Lopez/Jenkins/Osuna/West
MR Hynes/Rasmussen/Francis/Wolf/Santana

some big upside on that roster.

Gerry - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#298450) #

You forgot Estrada, uglyone.

joeblow - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#298451) #

I'd gamble that Drabek makes the bullpen despite the need for a lefty.

Chuck - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#298452) #

If all you can day is hit LHP (and not hit RHP and not play defense), you had better be slated for a platoon starting role because the short modern day bench has no room for you. Viciedo, with his 837/679 career OPS splits, has no role on this team, barring an injury, that I can see.

Against LHP, he is blocked at DH (Encarnacion), 1B (Valencia) and LF (Pillar).

As Mike said, he could have filled the Benny Ayala role on a long bench.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#298453) #

To keep Thole to catch Dickey you must trade Dioner Navarro. To keep Navarro you must trade Dickey and Thole for a Starter as good or better than he is. To keep three catcher is unwise as it cripples your Bench or reduces the size of your Bullpen, one or the other must happen. Interesting decision isn't it?

Oceanbound - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#298454) #

Navarro's presence is pretty awkward. He's a good hitting catcher who obviously won't be catching much bar a major catastrophe, and a poor DH. And those are the only two places where he can play.

uglyone - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#298455) #

ah thanks gerry. that deepens the pen out.

1 spot left for a whole smorgasbord of guys. gotta think they lean lefty....and based on spring so far that would put Hynes in the lead I think.

interesting to see if we have enough room in buffalo for all these guys.

who am I missing here?

SP Hendriks
SP Wolf
SP Santana
SP Francis
SP Jenkins

RP Lopez
RP West
RP Rasmussen
RP Stilson
RP Barnes
RP Schultz
RP Infante

(RP Tepera
RP Albers
RP Burke
RP Burns
RP Copeland)

Mike Green - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#298456) #

What could you expect from Navarro as a DH? Just below league average hitting and poor baserunning. In the fangraphs way of looking at it, it works out as -1 batting, -4 baserunning, -10 positional or slightly below replacement level production. Daric Barton is a better bet than that. You can at least leverage his fielding talent, even if he hits as ZIPS projects (.233/.324/.351). Of course, it would be preferable to trade Navarro for a left-handed first baseman who can hit.

uglyone - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#298457) #

Is Navarro really a poor DH?

over the last 3yrs he'd been pretty much bang on league average vRHP (wrc+: 96-111-97 = 101 avg), and great vLHP (
103-210-93 = 135 avg), for a solid 111wrc+ overall.

aside from guys in their late 30s like ort/vmart/cruz who could fall off at any second, what DHes out there would you expect much more from?

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#298458) #

It doesn't always matter whether your Closer is LH or RH. What a Closer throws with is meaningless for formation of the Bullpen. You need two RH power arms and two LH power arms, pitchers you can throw out there continually in any situation. The Blue Jays don't always have this. The remaining one or two spots are filled by whatever the Team feels it needs.

Possibly Delabar and Castro might be the RH power arms, Loup suffices (don't laugh) for one of the LH ones. Estrada should fill one of the two remaining spots The only other key and critical feature is another LH power arm. I don't know who is good enough for the job. Future speculation while fun could be futile.

uglyone - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#298460) #

last 3yrs:

BOS Ortiz: 1585pa, 150wrc+
DET Martinez: 1309pa, 139wrc+
TBR Jaso: 954pa, 129wrc+
SEA Cruz: 1776pa, 122wrc+
OAK Butler: 1950pa, 119wrc+
CHX Laroche::1853pa, 119wrc+
HOU Gattis: 783pa, 117wrc+
MIN Vargas: 234pa, 114wrc+
NYY Rodriguez: 710pa, 113wrc�
LAA Cron: 253pa, 113wrc+
TOR Navarro: 859pa, 110wrc+
CLE Swisher: 1659pa, 110wrc+
KCR Morales: 1580pa, 107wrc+
BAL Snider: 829pa, 97wrc+
TEX Moreland: 1059pa, 95wrc+

doesn't look like a big hole to me, especially since unlike most of those guys, we don't need to count on our DH to be one if our best bats.

Mike Green - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#298461) #

Reasonable expectations for Navarro as a LH DH in 2015 are best not limited to his 3 year splits because of the relatively small sample. He absolutely killed pitching in Wrigley in 2013 and especially against LHP. His 2013 line stands out like a sore thumb in his career. It is for that reason that Steamer, ZIPS and the fans all have him performing right around his 2014 level in 2015. Given his age and career line, that is, if anything, optimistic. Add in his baserunning and you have a replacement level ballplayer. Teams can survive with replacement level ballplayers, but it is a good idea to shoot for better, particularly at a position which ought to be the easiest to find a below average but better than replacement alternative.

It is a completely different story if Martin can catch Dickey and Navarro is the 2nd catcher.

uglyone - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#298462) #

warms my heartcockles seeing the jays beat up on yet another overrated sox prospect.

and by far the most important thing to watch for in sanchez is the BBs......and 2 in 12ip so far is pretty dang encouraging.

and don't look now but Travis is up to a .323avg now, with pop.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#298464) #

So someone is implying Navarro and Edwin as equal D.H.s?

Gerry - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#298465) #

Travis with two doubles today, he might be playing his way onto the team.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#298466) #

To solve to Smoak criticism once and for all.
1) Jose Reyes can unleash some rockets that sail forever.
2) Josh Donaldson occasionally emulates Jose Reyes in his throws.
3) Edwin, despite working very hard at his First Base defense, won't come close to those throws. That we saw last year.
4) Justin Smoak has a huge wingspan and could/should reach those throws. He will eventually hit well enough.
5) Best defense when no other option gives good defense.

The only black holes on this team exist when someone needs to complain.

JB21 - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#298467) #

Does FG's defensive metrics for 1B's count throwing errors saved? I do agree that a 1B that can go pick'em would be a big benefit for this team with Reyes and Donaldson on the left side of the IF.

Mike Green - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#298468) #

Here's an article on scooping. It's hard to imagine but Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Wallace make a "best of" list.

John Northey - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#298469) #

When something talking about defense has 3 of the top 4 listed as Adam Dunn, Encarnacion, and Wallace I have to question the tool being used. It listed scoups per putout - which suggests they all had teams that forced a lot of scoops to happen. A far better metric would be outs per scoop attempted.

scottt - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#298470) #

This roster really can't afford that if Thole has to stay.

It doesn't really matter. That roster is quite strong against left handed pitching.

scottt - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#298471) #

1. As someone who was adamantly opposed to having Thole on the team this year, I have to say that Smoak's complete no-show this apring has me much more eager to see Navarro's bat in the lineup. This is me admitting I was wrong.

Not sure what's going on here. The equivalent of AA playing the stock market.

2. Izturis is toast.

Agreed. Don't they get a bit of money back if they release him?

3. I'm very skeptical of the decision to start Sanchez. I really don't think he'll be effective there. That being said, it's not the end of the world if he fails and moves nack to the pen, so gambling on the upside makes sense.

Sanchez needs to start until it's proven that he can't. A good starter is more valuable than a good reliever. I would have preferred to have him start in AAA to work on his stuff. The key here is to move him back to the pen once he has enough starts. around mid-year.

4. Castro to the pen I feel food and bad about.

Same here. Quite conflicted.

scottt - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#298472) #

Travis with two doubles today, he might be playing his way onto the team.

Reminds me of the situation with Brett Lawrie who started in the minor and got injured there.

What about Gindl? He seems to be hitting well. 
Wouldn't he be a perfect replacement for the couple of weeks Saunders need?

acepinball - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#298473) #

One thing to think about RE: the DH position. Maybe there isn't one guy that will take the role. By that I mean, Martin may get a start at DH per week (when Dickey is pitching or a day game after night game). Reyes (when groundball machine Sanchez is playing) or Baustista (say, when Buehrle pitches) could both probably benefit from an added day off the turf. Mixing in Navarro to get him additional at bats. Getting Valencia to handle first or third vs. LHP to rest EE/Donaldson.

That's a lot of value from the DH spot.

As for the players not currently on the 40 man (Castro, Osuna, Travis), I'd personally lean towards keeping them off the roster until they prove they're absolutely ready (over ripe) or badly needed (say the RHRP like Delabar/Drabek fail or Izturis is finished). This preserves an option and gains an extra year of service time.

The Jays majorly buggered up the Sam Dyson and Sean Nolin options, so there is a precedent to shoot first and ask questions later, but not a best practice. The Jays could get an extra year of service from Norris by stashing him in Buffalo for April. But is it worth it?

There's no such thing as a pitching prospect. Ultimately, if AA & team decide Castro and Norris are both essential parts of 2015, then let's see it. Last year's bullpen was atrocious in April and cost a handful of wins. What's that they say- you can't win the division in April, but you can lose it?

JB21 - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#298474) #

I agree regarding the DH spot. Getting creative could be our best bet.

Vs LHP EE DH's and vs RHP he plays first and the DH is used to give guys like Reyes, Bautista, etc. a day off in the field. Especially at home.

scottt - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#298475) #

As for the players not currently on the 40 man (Castro, Osuna, Travis), I'd personally lean towards keeping them off the roster until they prove they're absolutely ready (over ripe) or badly needed (say the RHRP like Delabar/Drabek fail or Izturis is finished). This preserves an option and gains an extra year of service time.

Travis looks ready. Izturis looks finished. You don't preserve an option by sending players down in April. You preserve an option by keeping them off the 40 man roster or in the 25 man roster the entire year. What's interesting is that there is no free spot on the 40 roster.

Service time should never be a consideration if you're contending or intend to.

China fan - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#298476) #

"....who am I missing here?
SP Hendriks
SP Wolf
SP Santana
SP Francis
SP Jenkins...."

Personally I don't think any of those 5 pitchers will be in Buffalo's starting rotation when the Bisons open their season on April 9. Santana and Wolf aren't likely to be ready by then. Hendriks will probably be lost on waivers if he doesn't make the Jays roster. Francis and Jenkins are strictly relievers these days, I believe.

Who else then? Scott Copeland and Andrew Albers might have a shot at the Buffalo rotation -- both are starters these days, if I recall correctly. There is always the journeyman Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who remains on the Buffalo roster these days. A couple of wildcards: Roberto Osuna, although he'll probably go to New Hampshire if he doesn't make the Jays bullpen, and Ricky Romero, who could also be sent to NH rather than Buffalo.

But overall I must admit the Buffalo rotation looks rather thin. That's probably due to AA's preoccupation with acquiring relievers on the waiver wire, rather than starters. And of course the Stroman injury has probably deprived Buffalo of the potential presence of Daniel Norris. So, unless Hendriks can be sneaked through the waiver wire, or unless Wolf is ready sooner than I expect, the Jays might have to acquire one or two AAAA guys to fill out the rotation. If I'm missing any Buffalo rotation candidates, please let me know.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#298477) #

Travis with two doubles today, he might be playing his way onto the team.

I see Devon Travis has knocked the ball senseless since I put the cleverly disguised reverse jinx on him Monday, which no doubt the less generous will see as my being 180 degrees off on the guy

Mike Green - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#298478) #

He certainly wasn't hitting early in camp, CBDC. It might have been rust or the lingering effects of his injury.

The Rockies released Buddy Boshers today. Now there's a name I can get behind.

SK in NJ - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#298479) #

Encarnacion already has back issues, and is a poor defensive 1B. Why would they put him at 1B just to get Navarro's bat in the lineup? Smoak/Valencia at 1B is a far better option. It will keep Edwin from playing the field too much, and someone is going to have to scoop up the wild throws from Donaldson and Reyes all season, and it sure won't be Encarnacion if history is any indication. I like Smoak at 1B. Give him a chance to see if his fly ball tendencies work at RC. If not, go with Barton.

Navarro really should be traded, regardless of the return. He's a replacement level catcher making 5m. He won't fetch anything decent in all likelyhood. Just take what you can get and make the roster a bit more diverse and flexible. Thole catching once every five days is not the end of the world, and AJ Jimenez looks like an ideal back-up catcher in case of injury/need.

I still don't like Castro making the team, but I'll have to learn to accept it. There is still two weeks for common sense to prevail though. Hoping one of the relievers on the bubble (Hendriks, Drabek, etc) pushes Castro back to the minors. Wishful thinking on my part, though.

cybercavalier - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#298480) #

My 2 cents with a non baseball perspective:

1) Can Smoak be trained to play LF if he is deemed not that good to play 1B ?

2) If Sanchez may not get enought chance to develop 3rd and 4th pitches in the bullpen, is he that crucial to team success that he can not be sent to Buffalo so he can develop fully as a starter ? The Jays seems to have many bullpen arm options: veterans SP Francis and Santana, veteran RP Lopez, Burke, in-house choices Rasmussen, Hendriks, not to mention Drabek et al. who need to prove their worth as starter this season. IMO, just send Sanchez to Buffalo to start.

3) I felt good about a Navarro - Nava trade but when to put an extra 6th OFer when Sauders shall be eventually back from the DL, not to mention taking Viciedo on the active roster. Pillar, Bautista, Pompey, Nava, Saunders and Viciedo mean six OFers, one or two need to give. Can Navarro be traded to some other team, not to mention after-the-trade gossip and talk about trading to a divisional rivalry that blows back to haunt the Jays ? From the perspective of Navarro trade value, no secret to his skill repertoire on how he helps his team. Talking about a 1 for 1 trade, I think the Jays can be more creative.

4) Goins seems to hit better this spring training than last; can he progress when he is on the active roster ? If so, the reasoning shall also works on Viciedo. However, I may remind that Nelson Cruz played with both the Brewers and Rangers and their Triple-A teams for multiple seasons in 2006 to 2008.

5) Do evaluation on izturis need regular season Jays game ?

6) I still don't like Castro making the team, but I'll have to learn to accept it. There is still two weeks for common sense to prevail though. Hoping one of the relievers on the bubble (Hendriks, Drabek, etc) pushes Castro back to the minors. Wishful thinking on my part, though.

Can the Jays just let the old veterans Francis and Santana take pitcher roster spot so the young players can improve whatever they need to in Buffalo while the Jays evaluate these veterans value in performance. Relievers on the bubble would burst out in good performance when they can; the Jays need not to wait for them when playing old veteran, who knows what to do in game time situations but only could or could not perform well enough.

--------
My own questions:

a) I would like to see Navarro traded, probably not for Nava as such scenario will create a logjam in OFer spots. Creativity ? AA has shown that in past trades.

b) If Navarro is traded, a personification who may fill in some playing time at C, 1B, 3B, LF, RF is Jake Fox. He played all these infield positions for Philadephia Double-A team and outfield positions in the Mexican League.

cruzin - Thursday, March 19 2015 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#298481) #

I think since the FO was under the pressure to win now, as shown by all the leaks of the off season pursuit of Williams and then Duquette, AA is probably going to put players on the roster he would've otherwise delayed for a month or 2 for financial reasons related to service time. I'm thinking of Castro, Travis and possibily Norris. But since they're under the gun to win now, they'll be fielding the best team without regard to the financial impacts down the road.

Therefore, I see Castro making it, Travis making the team as long as he continues to outperform Goins/Izturis, the Norris/Estrada battle will head into the final weeks of ST.

I hate the possibility of carry 3 catchers, but resigned to that it's likely to happen. I really hate the idea of a 8 man bullpen so I'm going to construct anticipated roster using 7 guys.

Martin, Navarro, Thole
EE, Smoak, Valencia, Travis, Izturis, Reyes, Donaldson
Pillar, Pompey, Bautista
Dickey, Buehrle, Hutchison, Sanchez, Estrada
Cecil, Loup, Hynes, Redmond, Delabar, Lopez, Castro

I went back and forth on Smoak vs Gindl, which comes down to when Saunders is ready to take the field. I just think the Blue Jays want to give Smoak a chance at the Dome before cutting bait. I have Estrada beating out Norris for the final SP spot, which I admit I could be very very wrong about and if I'm wrong then Estrada takes Delabar's spot.

John Northey - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#298482) #

Just going through the spring stats at B-R and noticed Jimenez, A.J. has had a poor spring 0-6 with a walk The 3 catchers who aren't likely to be in the majors (Ochinko, Jimenez, Murphy) are a combined 1-15 with 2 BB's. That has to make it a bit tougher to dump Navarro - as any injury means Thole plays full-time. Ick. Kawasaki still playing well - 333-500-500 in 16 PA. How to tell it is spring - Goins is hitting 333/379/444. Navarro isn't letting the uncertainty affect him hitting 353/450/412. Wonder if the fact only 6 guys have started more than one game (Sanchez, Hutchison, Dickey, Buehrle, Norris, Stroman) says what the Jays have decided for the rotation? Estrada has 1 start and that is it. Castro & Osuna are getting tons of chances, over 6 innings each which for relievers is 2nd & 3rd for all Jays.Castro has faced tougher opponents than Osuna - Castro in the 9's (near ML quality) while Osuna is in the low 7's (AA quality). Hynes has faced 9.0 quality (mid-way between AAA and the majors) while K'ing 5 of 15 faced.

Checking MLB.com I can see Bautista is tied for 2nd in the majors for spring HR with 3. No one else shows up on the mini-leaderboard MLB has on their front page.Gindl is 7th in Slg% with a 714 figure his 393/455/714 line is sweeet he also leads the majors in doubles with 7 his opponent quality is 8.6 so closer to AAA than majors but still sweet numbers Gindl has to be forcing the Jays to at least think about him as a DH/4th OF. Carrera is 3rd in K's - not good.

FYI: Gose is leading in triples this spring with 3 hitting 371/436/629 - sigh. Wojiechowski hasn't allowed a run in 9 innings this spring.

Sanchez is 4th in innings ptiched - clearly the Jays are determined to fully stretch him out. Remember how many of us wanted the Jays to sign U Jimenez last winter? He has a 8.74 ERA this spring and is 2nd in runs allowed.

Chuck - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#298483) #

Can Smoak be trained to play LF if he is deemed not that good to play 1B ?

What would be the advantage of asking a non-hitting, lumbering first baseman to play an even more challenging defensive position? If his bat can get him into the lineup at all, it'd be to deal with the first base problem. No one on the pitching staff needs to see Smoak doing the statue thing in left field.

If Sanchez may not get enought chance to develop 3rd and 4th pitches in the bullpen, is he that crucial to team success that he can not be sent to Buffalo so he can develop fully as a starter?

It depends what the team's official posture is. If they are win-now mode, then a struggling rotation-version of Sanchez would likely be moved to the pen, where he showed last year that a minimal arsenal does not preclude being a major contributor.

I felt good about a Navarro - Nava trade

I would love a trade like this. Nava has a career 813 OPS vs RHP and despite his age and checkered performance history, would make a suitable plug in the outfield until Saunders is back and a valuable 4th outfielder thereafter. He even has a little experience at first base.

Goins seems to hit better this spring training than last; can he progress when he is on the active roster?

Nothing is impossible, but counting on a 27-year old to suddenly get a lot better is asking a lot. The Jose Bautista career progression model is a ridiculous anomaly that I think sets expectations too high for other struggling players. Best to forecast via the normal development curve and treat anomalies like found money.

Do evaluation on izturis need regular season Jays game?

I have not seen a single inning so can only go by what others are saying. Were Izturis not under contract, and were he a non-roster invitee, I wonder if he'd still be around. I wonder if the team wants Travis in the minors for a while and is willing to throw some permutation of slop at 2B in the interim, with Izturis just one anonymous face in the slop brigade who maybe gets bonus points for being a switch-hitter.

Can the Jays just let the old veterans Francis and Santana take pitcher roster spot

Santana hasn't pitched yet, has he? Won't it be a while until he even starts throwing (if he ever even starts again)? And Francis seems little more than a generic warm body you bring in to fill out a roster, not someone you count on actually contributing to a winning team. If we see Francis this year, a whole lot of things will have gone terribly wrong.

scottt - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#298484) #

Wonder if the fact only 6 guys have started more than one game (Sanchez, Hutchison, Dickey, Buehrle, Norris, Stroman) says what the Jays have decided for the rotation?

There's only 1 official start a day. Until they start go 5 innings it doesn't mean much. They are stretching more than 5 guys.

rpriske - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#298485) #

Tyler Pastornicky was just released. The Jays should get on that and sign him to a minor league deal.

I would sure rather have him ready in case of injuries to middle infielders than Kawasaki.

China fan - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#298486) #

Rumors today that the Jays might try to acquire Swisher or Trumbo if they decide that Smoak and Barton just can't produce enough hitting to warrant the 1B job. Thoughts on this? Swisher had a terrible 2014 season and has an expensive contract -- not sure how much of it the Clevelands would cover. He also has health issues. But he was consistently good before 2014. Trumbo has a somewhat more affordable contract (less than $7-million) and has at least been having a good spring at the plate this year.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#298487) #

I'd say those two are worth a similar investment as smoak was.

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#298488) #

Trumbo doesn't exactly fit the needs of the organization. They don't really need a right-handed power hitter who doesn't reach base often. For his career, he's .242/.294/.442 against RHP, and they already have a homemade solution for the rare times that they face a lefty. On the other hand, he was apparently a pretty decent defensive first baseman prior to last year and he has lost some weight. Meh. If he were a left-handed hitter with typical splits and the same overall line as Trumbo, I'd say that he was a fine target.

Swisher is 34, not healthy and coming off a terrible year. He's an awfully expensive reclamation project and it's a little late in the spring for that.

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#298489) #

Tyler Pastornicky was just released. The Jays should get on that and sign him to a minor league deal.
I would sure rather have him ready in case of injuries to middle infielders than Kawasaki.

I was a big Pastornicky fan, but it looks to me like he's a ringer for Kawasaki rather than Eckstein (as I hoped). Still, he's only 25 years old and maybe he will yet develop better control of the strike zone.

vw_fan17 - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#298490) #

What about EE taking maybe 2/3 of the 1B innings, and Bautista taking the other 1/3? We seem to have more players in the OF who could be "acceptable", compared to 1B candidates.. How much 1B has Joey played?

Ryan Day - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#298491) #

Trumbo looks like a slightly better & more expensive version of Viciedo - hits for some power vs LHP, rarely draws a walk, glove is largely ornamental. I'd rather just see what Viciedo can do - he's a few years younger, and might improve. (you might at least get Juan Francisco repeat and be able to ride a hot streak for a couple months)

Swisher has at least another two years at $15 million, with a third year vesting if he's healthy. I can't imagine Cleveland would pick up enough of his salary to make that a worthwhile gamble. (He also has yet to appear in a spring game due to knee issues.)

Lylemcr - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#298492) #

- I like the idea of Goins as the backup 2nd baseman\SS. Release Izturis and give the job to Travis.
- If I was management, I would put Sanchez in AAA and keep Drabek. For not other reason but to keep Sanchez free agency one year off and to see if they can get some value out of Drabek before losing him. But... I love the fact that he earned that spot. (like what is happening with Bryant)
- I like Estrada as the swing man. I am also curious what Sanchez and Norris can do in MLB. It really sets up for next year and they will know what they need to do next year for free agency.
- I am still worried about the pen(Cecil in particular). That being said, bullpens are so unpredictable.
- All those 1st baseman, and nobody grabbed the ring. I don't see how you give it to any of them. Stick with Navarro

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#298493) #

Bautista has played some first base and has looked completely at home there. The club could do a lot worse than to move Bautista to first base, install Encarnacion as its everyday DH and run with an outfield of Pillar, Pompey and Saunders with Gindl or Carrera backing up. You could get fancy and have Bautista move back to right-field against LHP with Valencia at first base.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#298494) #

I'd have some hope for pastornicky's bat, the bigger problem seems to be he can't field at all.

I still like kawasaki as the bench IF. The numbers say his defense is legit at both 2b and SS, and he's not awful vRHP.

If Travis is the best hitter now then he should start. there's really no developmental issue here imo - the guy is 24 with plenty of milb experience. the only reason you send him down is if he's not our best option right now. imo.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#298495) #

I agree with you guys on Bautista at 1b. he might be our best defensive 1b actually.

if pillar (or gindl or dirks) can hack it vRHP, that likely upgrades us defensively all over the diamond, and reduces wear and tear on both joey and ee.

could be a perfect solution.

John Northey - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#298496) #

Goins as the backup makes a ton of sense - he is high level defense which is useful when you have Reyes at SS and a good offensive team around him.
1B/DH mess - best solution right now might be moving Bautista to 1B, EE to DH, and put in RF a mix of Gindl/ Pillar that would be far better on offense & Defense and probably help keep the big 2 healthy.
Bullpen - so many options.... Cecil/Loup/Redmond/Estrada are the locks. Delabar I expect to make it and Drabek I've figured would all winter.Castro is a good possibility now. Hynes has shown a lot too. Options might cost Delabar & Jenkins any shot with a crowded situation. Hynes I could see missing out due to his not being on the40 man thus can easily be put in AAA. Castro & Osuna will probably spend most of the year in the minors but as long as they keep putting up 0's it will be hard to ignore them. Not an easy set of choices for AA - but a good problem.
Travis should be at 2B over Izturis I think. Izturis being 1 for 15 says 'time to let it go'. Yeah he costs the Jays a few million this year no matter what so why lose games due to that. He was a mistake...just accept it AA and move on. Sunk cost.

China fan - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#298497) #

"....Bautista at 1B.... could be a perfect solution..."

Could be, but Jeff Blair on the radio today said it would be "crazy" and has never even been discussed by the Jays. Is this irrational intransigence, due to the myopic stubbornness of the team and the player? Perhaps. But I can also think of a few reasons why the Jays would be hesitant. First, do we know if Pillar or Dirks or Gindl can actually hit well enough to justify a major position change for the team's best player? It would certainly be a gamble. Pillar has hit well in the minors, but his major-league hitting is still unproven. It makes sense to break him in as a 4th outfielder or to rotate him with Pompey in CF, so that the team doesn't entirely depend on him as a full-time starting player. If he slumps, it doesn't hurt the team because there are 3 other outfielders. Making him the everyday starter, without a strong back-up, could be risky at this very early stage of his major-league career. As for Gindl: he looked good in 2013 but had a bad year in 2014, and has to be considered a big gamble, since his major-league record is so limited. As for Dirks: he is still recovering from injury, won't be ready for the start of the season, and hasn't had a good season since 2012. Viciedo is another option but he is defensively poor. So, do you really want to force the team's best player to shift position to make room for a player whose offensive or defensive skills would be unproven and risky?

Another reason: the Jays do like Bautista's cannon of an arm in RF. He might not be the best defensive outfielder around, but he has some strengths in the outfield. Shifting him to 1B is under-utilizing his abilities. He is better than that. And a good 1B shouldn't be as hard to find as a good outfielder.

And a third reason: Bautista himself might be upset by it. I know, I know, nobody cares about the wishes and desires of highly paid millionaire baseball players, and Bautista himself has always professed to be willing to do whatever the team wants, whatever will help the team win. But this has got to be a factor, to some extent. He's probably the most valuable guy on the team, and you don't mess with him without a very good reason.

Personally, if it was up to me, I wouldn't oppose any shift that strengthens the team. If putting Bautista at 1B and Encarnacion at DH would strengthen the team without much of a loss in the outfield, and if Bautista was fine with it, sure, do it. But I suspect it's more complicated than that.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#298498) #

something to keep an eye on - orioles have 8 relievers of varying interestingness out of options - they're gonna move one before waiving.

also, wieters is hurt.

rafael - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#298499) #

There's many things going well in Spring Training so far - with exception of Stroman's injury and no hitting from1st Base;
Trending positive: Pompey, Travis, Sanchez, Norris, Castro. Not bad; Pillar, Goins & Thole's bat.
I wouldn't mess with Joey this year (different muscles & routine)
See what happens with Navarro and other cheap 1st base pickups.

Ryan Day - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#298500) #

I'm pretty sure Bautista would be opposed to playing 1B, so you'd definitely have to frame it more effectively than "all our other options suck." If they had some great RF option, a move to 1B could be more soothing to his pride; as it stands, they'd be making him change positions because a) the Jays couldn't find an even remotely competent 1B, and b) a couple guys might be able to play RF okay.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#298501) #

I got the impression he kinda liked being in the middle if all the action every play, chatting away and "leading", the couple times he played 1b.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#298502) #

carrera gets his first hit of the spring!

smoak gets his first homer!

against some guy named burch smith.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#298503) #

maicer injured I think.

Lylemcr - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#298504) #

Smoak knows we were poo pooing him and finally hit something today :)

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#298505) #

And Barton doubles twice...funny how that works.

uglyone - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#298506) #

ANOTHER SMOAK BOMB!

I take back everything I said about taking 3 catchers.

eudaimon - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#298507) #

Great to see Smoak doing well. He may or may not still be a bad player, but he's definitely not as bad as he has been thus far in camp. Hopefully they've been working on his swing, and found something that worked. Hopefully he keeps it up going forward. This is what spring training is for.

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#298508) #

That's a really nice outing from Norris with the key Tampa bats in the lineup. It does look like he is going to start the season in the rotation now.

SK in NJ - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#298509) #

Bautista is a free agent in two years. I think he'd rather head to the market as a RF than a 1B. He can always move to 1B after signing his last big contract. He's been a good team player in terms of playing any position the team needs him to, but I think a permanent move to 1B would be vetoed by him for the reason I mentioned above.

The Jays are fine with Smoak and Valencia at 1B. If Smoak does not hit, then go with Barton. I don't think people realize how important a defensive 1B who can pick up bad throws will be for this team. Donaldson and Reyes will need one.

CeeBee - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#298510) #

Very nice outing by Norris. Smoak smoking, Barton doubling(2), even Goins getting in on the action. too bad it's still spring training.

China fan - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#298511) #

And bad outings by Lopez and Hendriks helping to clarify the bullpen situation....

I'd love to see Smoak turning into a good hitter, but it's still spring training, he's batting against mediocre pitchers, and he's still hitting only .129 this spring. We'll see. I'm optimistic, but he needs a bunch more good games this spring if he's going to win the job.

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#298512) #

Hendriks faced 3 batters, retired 2, one by strikeout, and gave up a hit. If that's a bad outing, we're guaranteed to see a whole bunch of them during the season. I'll grant that he didn't look great when I saw him even throwing 92 in the pen rather than 89-90 from the rotation.

Mike Green - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#298513) #

And Richard Urena gets a hit in his first at-bat in a Jay uniform. Hopefully the first of many.

China fan - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#298514) #

Hendriks pitched only two-thirds of an inning, and he gave up a double, allowing both of his inherited runners to score. I'll admit that's technically not an earned run against him, but it's not great. And he's already having a mediocre spring. If he's going to win a job, he'll need to start throwing some clean innings, which he hasn't done so far.

Barnes also looked bad with 3 walks in less than an inning. Giving up hits in spring training is one thing, but allowing 3 walks in less than an inning is less excusable. Hynes, meanwhile, pitched a perfect inning. Hynes has moved ahead of Barnes and Francis in the race for the potential 3rd LHP job in the bullpen.

Richard S.S. - Friday, March 20 2015 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#298515) #

Spring Training Stats can matter much more than can be believed. Ryan Goin's issue with his hitting was said to be the large Bat he swung and the large loopy swing he used while "hitting". If he's changed any of that, that could be why he's hitting so very well now. I didn't see enough of him last year or this Spring to fairly judge, so I'm not sure. Perhaps someone has seen him well enough to judge fairly?

During the last 14 games most Teams' Pitching and Hitting starts showing very, very near Season-ready stuff and staying longer in games. How others fare against them tells a truer story on how well your guys are doing. It's also when injuries of consequence occur.

The problem at 2nd Base may have been solved with the injury to Izturis. Groins strains can matter for 5-7 days, 2-3 weeks, or 1-3 months, because I'm never sure how fast it heals 100%.

China fan - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#298516) #

Wilton Lopez has been "cut" from the team, according to a Barry Davis tweet. Waiting to see if he's been released from the organization or optioned to Buffalo. But again the bullpen situation is looking clearer. Delabar's chances of making the team have increased.

ogator - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#298517) #

My reading of Justin Smoak's major league career is that it has almost always been as we are seeing it in Spring Training. He goes games and games with nothing and then impressive power tantalizes and tempts but the overall result is inconsistent and inadequate. I am inclined to think that the two long home runs did more to muddy the picture than to provide realistic hope. I still want the club to look for a player who will provide a more consistent bat.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#298518) #

I don't consider the handedness of the Closer as being significant (LH or RH) as long as that person did his job. So when someone talk about Hynes being our third Lefty. Are we talking about someone more than just Loup as Lefties? Or Is someone else, other than Cecil our Closer? If so, he counts as a Lefty. If not, he doesn't. Why? It's because he doesn't pitch any inning needed, just the last.

China fan - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#298519) #

Okay, so Lopez has been reassigned to the minor-league camp. He was a non-roster invitee on a minor-league contract, so it seems that he'll remain in the Jays system. With his experience, he will be a useful depth piece. It sounds like Buffalo will have a lot of bullpen depth this season -- relievers who are capable of helping the Jays bullpen if there are injuries or slumps by the major-league relievers.

By the way, does anyone know if an NRI player on a minor-league contract has the right to sign elsewhere if he doesn't make the major-league team? Do most NRIs have opt-out clauses, or only the high-profile ones like Santana and Wolf?

greenfrog - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#298520) #

Ken Rosenthal has written an article on the possible connection between the Jays' spring training playing surfaces and the injuries to Saunders and Stroman. The bottom line?

"some with the club believe that an unsafe field may have contributed to an injury to the team�s new left fielder, Michael Saunders"

"most with the team believe Stroman�s injury was flukish and not attributable to the surface"

He also mentions the need to upgrade RC and the possible price tag of $200m to $400m.

There isn't much analysis or substance to the article, but I'm glad that a prominent writer is at least highlighting the possibility of a connection between the playing conditions in the organization's parks and injuries. It might help light a fire under Rogers and the Jays to invest some money in improving those playing conditions.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-michael-saunders-unsafe-field-injury-031915

krose - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#298521) #

4 IP by Dickie and no passed balls by Martin!

jerjapan - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#298522) #

and Delabar strikes out the side to finish the 9th

eudaimon - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#298523) #

I suspect that Martin could catch Dickey, but I think Thole might as well do it. I think Martin's defensive abilities are slightly wasted when catching Dickey (and extra valuable when catching the other pitchers).

People don't seem to like Thole much, but he's pretty average for a backup catcher. I challenge anyone to name a particularly notable backup catcher, on any team. If any teams top catcher gets injured, there's going to be problems - that's not a situation unique to the Blue Jays.

Hopefully they can find a taker for Navarro soon. They have a few weeks to figure something out.

Travis has been looking pretty good. Apparently he made a couple nice defensive plays today (though I was looking away when they happened). If he keeps it up he's likely our opening day 2B, and I'd be happy with that.

uglyone - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#298524) #

". I challenge anyone to name a particularly notable backup catcher, on any team. "

Dioner Navarro

scottt - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#298525) #

Both Thole and Navarro have had up and down years with the bat and they've both been backups and starters.

Thole has been around replacement value the last 3 years, but Navarro wasn't any better in his 25-27 years either as he accumulated -0.5 WAR over those 3 years. Navarro would be a better backup on a team that doesn't start a knuckleballer. There's 28 of those. Problem is, backup catchers don't usually make $5 million.

uglyone - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#298526) #

quick little statspac for the expected starters as well as the other guys with a chance to crack the roster:

ss reyes 1.183ops
c martin .483
rf bautista 1.391
dh En'cion .250
3b Donaldson .976
lf saunders
1b smoak .625
2b travis .910
cf pompey .802

ut valencia .945
of pillar .758
if izturis .451
c navarro .778

ut tolleson .671
of gindl 1.028
if kawasaki .932
c thole .852

ut barton .599
of viciedo .692
if goins .945
c Jimenez .143

Dickey 12.0ip, 7k, 0.83wh, 1.50er
Hutchison 10.0ip, 5k, 0.90wh, 1.80er
Buehrle 9.2ip, 5k, 1.14wh, 2.79er
Norris 12.2ip, 14k, 1.34wh, 2.84er
Sanchez 13.0ip, 7k, 1.23wh, 4.85er

Cecil
Delabar 6.0ip, 9k, 1.00wh, 3.00er
Loup 5.0ip, 1k, 1.20wh, 3.60er
Redmond 6.0ip, 3k, 1.00wh, 1.50er
Estrada 7.2ip, 4k, 1.70wh, 9.39er
Hynes 5.2ip, 5k, 0.18wh, 0.00er
Castro 6.2ip, 4k, 0.30wh, 0.00er

Osuna 6.0ip, 6k, 0.83wh, 0.00er
Schultz 6.0ip, 2k, 0.50wh, 0.00er
Hendriks 5.0ip, 7k, 1.80wh, 5.40er
Jenkins 5.0ip, 4k, 1.80wh, 9.00er

China fan - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#298527) #

Some thoughts on the roster squeeze and how to solve it:

The Jays seem increasingly likely to keep Thole on the opening-day roster. That's the upshot of all the hints that we're hearing from Gibbons and Anthopoulos. And much as they are trying to trade Navarro, I don't think we can assume that he will be traded before opening day. There's a pretty good chance that he won't be traded, simply because of his salary and the absence of any natural trade partner. So the roster squeeze will be at the DH/1B positions, and Justin Smoak has got to be worried.

One quite possible scenario is that the Jays keep a bench of Thole, Navarro, Valencia and Goins or Tolleson. That's if Smoak makes the team. But that bench doesn't include a 4th outfielder, since Pillar will likely be the starting LF until Saunders is ready. I'm not sure if the Jays would be willing to go for a week or two with Valencia or Tolleson as the emergency 4th outfielder. So if the Jays need a genuine 4th outfielder on opening day (Carrera or Gindl or Dickerson), then the only way to do that is to make Navarro the starting DH and to put Encarnacion at 1B and to ditch Smoak. That's not ideal for several reasons, including Encarnacion's health and Navarro's hitting. But it's the only way to keep a 4th OF on the bench along with Thole, Valencia, and a back-up middle-infielder such as Goins.

I recall hearing rumors that Valencia could play the outfield on an emergency basis. But I don't recall him playing any innings in the outfield this spring, which seems to suggest that the Jays don't see him as an emergency OF. Unless I am recalling wrongly.

And the squeeze is much worse, of course, if the Jays decide to keep 8 relievers and 3 catchers. I have no clue how that problem could be solved.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#298528) #

There is apparently being a lot of consideration given as to who Pitches the first three Series (9 games). The thinking is, Mark Buehrle does not pitch in Yankee Stadium. R.A. Dickey is set up so he pitches twice in the Dome. Other things were said but I can't remember.

Mike Green - Saturday, March 21 2015 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#298529) #

Mike Wilner tweeted that Russell Martin looked much better handling the knuckleball today. That's what it looked like to me, as well.

I didn't see any of Jimenez, but I gather that it appeared that he wasn't ready to step in should injuries occur. Are Thole and (perhaps) Martin the only catchers in the organization who can handle the knuckler? If so, the problem isn't so much a roster squeeze as a depth problem combined with a lack of options.

TamRa - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 03:41 AM EDT (#298530) #

some random suggestions and thoughts (mentioned on my blog but that doesn't really get them into the conversation)

3 Catchers? Nonsense. Send Thole to Buffalo (he has an option) until a trade arises for Navarro, meanwhile let Navarro catch Buehrle (they worked together well last year and Buehrle is least in need of Martin's magic). Not the whole season but works for a while, and maintains veteran depth in the meantime. And a ox on Navarro as DH

1. Worried about Smoak et al? Push for Morneau (and not because he's Canadian, I'm not so why do i care?) given he's the only practical target that fits the circumstances.

2. Save Drabek and Tolison from waiver claims? Simple, let Estrada start the 5th game with Norris in Buffalo until the 15th while Drabek is in the major league 'pen. Then you try to sneak Drabek through for Norris and you've bought, potentially, another year of team control of Norris. As for Tolison, keep him while Saunders opens on the DL and you can the opportunity to sneak him as you do Drabek when the home games start. The only person you have to put through waivers in March is Hendricks

3. the third lefty is probably Scott Barnes unless he spits the bit since he's the one who's out of options (as opposed to Hynes who isn't and Francis who's NR)

christaylor - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 03:48 AM EDT (#298531) #

Does Thole have options? My memory is he had two when he came over in 2013 at least one of which was burned.If he has options, I'll be disappointed if they don't give Martin the opportunity to fail to catch the knuckleball. 3-4 starts ought to be enough and it would give Smoak time to show what he can do at the Dome. Add EE's wonky back and the throwing abilities from the left side of the to the mix, it all adds up to needing Smoak to find his form at the plates, especially from the left side. I can't see carrying 3 catchers as anything but a massive mistake in roster construction.

China fan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#298532) #

To update my previous post: after Russell Martin's strong performance in yesterday's game, John Lott now says there's a very good chance that Martin will be deemed good enough for the knuckleball, and Thole won't be needed. This is somewhat surprising to me after the earlier comments by Gibbons etc, but Lott says the Jays are "headed clearly" in the direction of not needing Thole. That's good news for roster construction, and good news for Smoak. So the opening-day roster could include a bench of Navarro, Valencia, Goins (or possibly Tolleson or Kawasaki) and a 4th outfielder. But Smoak really has to produce, because he's the one on the bubble at this point. (I'm assuming Travis is the opening-day 2B but of course that's certainly not carved in stone yet.)

Lott's article on Martin, Thole and Dickey:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/03/21/toronto-blue-jays-knuckleballer-r-a-dickey-gives-russell-martins-catching-a-rave-review-he-has-been-fantastic/

China fan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 06:59 AM EDT (#298533) #

"....Does Thole have options?...."

Yes, he does. He was previously optioned in 2010 and 2013 so he has one more option year remaining. Technically, because he's more than 3 years removed from his first appearance on a major-league roster, he can't be optioned outright but must be exposed to "optional waivers." But optional waivers are revocable by the team that options him, so players are rarely claimed in this scenario.

China fan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#298534) #

As we move closer to the roster-crunch decisions, a reminder of this excellent resource from Bluebird Banter: a complete list of the option status of every Jays player, and all the technicalities of what can be done with each player:

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/pages/blue-jays-option-and-outright-status

China fan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#298535) #

Sigh. John Lott has now rewritten his entire article on Martin/Dickey, deleted the reference to the Jays "clearly heading" in the direction of dumping Thole, and made the entire analysis far more ambiguous and unclear. So we're back to square one: the Jays might keep 3 catchers, or might not.

Mike Green - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#298536) #

Thanks, all, for the correction. Thole has an option year left, the club has three reasonable choices. Trade Navarro, send down Thole or keep both and run with a six man bullpen. I think there is zero chance that they choose the third option.

uglyone - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#298537) #

I think people read to much into every quote from management. don't take everything they say at face value.

the way the roster is set up makes it very unlikely that they carry 3 catchers. that's more of a worst case outcome - I.e. martin struggles withwith the knuckler AND none of smoak/barton/whoever show anything at the plate.

jerjapan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#298538) #

I like Tamra's idea of starting Norris in the minors in order to get an extra year of service time but I'm unlclear - how long would he have to stay in Buffalo to get us the extra year?

I'm all for protecting assets, but I think people might be overthinking things a bit - I can't see a Scott Barnes types winning the third lefty role simply because he's out of options - these waiver claim, 25th guy on the roster types are fungibile. Kyle Drabeck is in that category for me as well.

Chuck - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#298539) #

Watching today for the first time all spring. Being bemoaned is Valencia's "label" of "platoon player". We used to hear this kind of thing for Lind all the time as well, as if some nefarious cabal had arbitrarily and unjustly imposed the labelling. As if there wasn't a lifetime of evidence to support the position.

cruzin - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#298540) #

I too would like an extra year of control for the young guns, such as Norris, Pompey and Travis.

I think Travis would only be required to be down for 2 weeks, much like Bryant since he doesn't have any MLB service time. In the case of Norris and Pompey, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they need to be down for about 6 weeks since they got MLB service time since they were called up last Sept.

I'm less concerned about Castro since if he's targeted for the bullpen this year, they can change that direction next year for him to be a SP and option him then.

Unfortunately, I don't think AA has the option of looking forward to 6 years down the road and free agency issues. He probably feels the need win this year or lose his job. Getting that extra year of control is the least of his concerns now, but would be different if AA had confidence he was sticking around for a while.

uglyone - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#298541) #

Osuna is so good.

It's funny - of the 4 potential rookie pitchers, I think I am least confident in the most famous one - Sanchez.

Osuna mightvalready have more pitches and better command than sanchez.

uglyone - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#298542) #

Chuck - i couldn't agree more. it's hilarious.

uglyone - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#298543) #

as far as the extra year of control goes, I don't see why we should prioritize that over fielding the best team this year, given the age of our core. this core has s few more years in it.....but not 6 more.

scottt - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#298544) #

I like Tamra's idea of starting Norris in the minors in order to get an extra year of service time but I'm unclear - how long would he have to stay in Buffalo to get us the extra year?

Around 2 months, depending on where the other super-two candidates sit. Teams not in contention can wait longer.
For example David Price started his rookie year on May 25.

I don't understand how the same team can sign back loaded contracts and seemingly worry about the future by sending some of their best players down to the minors.

cybercavalier - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#298545) #

I like Tamra's idea of starting Norris in the minors in order to get an extra year of service time

According to this, Thole has options.

Builiding on Tamra's minor league transaction ideas,

1) If Navarro is not traded by the start of the season, Thole starts in Buffalo. His chance to improve from his upper .800 OPS in 2104. Navarro can catch Buerhle.

2) How about a package of Navarro and Barnes to the D-backs, despite what mentioned in the media ?

3) Aaron Sanchez to start in Buffalo to work on 3rd and 4th pitches, and whatnots. Hendriks, who is also out of options, plays in Toronto. In other words, a mini rotation of Estrada, Hendriks, Drabek, Redmond for the last 2 of 5 rotation spots and the 6th starter. In game time situation, let us see which players come out on top. Who loses out can be part of the Navarro and Barnes' trade package.

Chuck - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#298546) #

There seem to be two reasons for monkeying with service time, and it seems they are being conflated. One reason is to stave off free agency by a year. Another reason is to avoid a player gaining Super-2 status.

Kris Bryant will be sent to the minors for 2 weeks so that by the end of his 6th season, he'll only have 5.xx years of service time and thus won't qualify for free agency, thus giving the Cubs 7 years (less 2 weeks) of his service, rather than 6.

What we are more used to seeing is players being sent down for 2 months, so that they do not accrue enough service time to be Super-2s, and thus arbitration-eligible in season 3 rather than not until season 4.

The Bryant situation buys the Cubs an entire extra year of Bryant's services. The second situation presents a cost-saving for the team, the difference between a "forced" salary and an "arbitration-eligible" salary.

jerjapan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#298547) #

Thanks for the clarification on service time and arb eligibility guys.

Turned on today's game and literally the first thing I heard Buck saying was about Viceido trying to shed his platoon label. The FO can go as new school as they want, we are going to have old school commentating.

With it looking more and more likely that Pompey, Sanchez, Norris, Travis, Pillar and Castro will all be with the team for most or all of the season, and other youngsters figuring to get called up for the pen, I think it's safe to say that this is going to be a fun, fun season to follow the Jays.

Finally, poor Chad Jenkins. I thought he was a lock for the pen this year and he's looking to be on the outside again.

China fan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#298548) #

"....I think people read to much into every quote from management. don't take everything they say at face value..."

For example, when they say that Castro is being stretched out to 4 innings, don't read too much into it....

scottt - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#298549) #

Izturis won't be able to play for another 10 days and won't be ready on opening day. That's great news.

Richard S.S. - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#298550) #

It is entirely possible that final decisions won't be made until the last two Spring Training games in Montreal. As for what happens until then? Curiouser and curiouser?

vw_fan17 - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#298551) #

The Rockies have released Jhoulys Chacin. Before 2014, he had some pretty good numbers for 4 years in a row: ERA+ of 142, 126, 105, 129. Then a 79 in 2014.

Worth taking a flyer on?

Smaj - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#298552) #

I was at the game today & I'm still smiling. Osuna was impressive with his velocity and for the most part his location was excellent. He looks extremely composed & confident on the bump. I saw him prior to his TJ surgery & he looks far more athletic and agile with his fitness commitment. Castro is simply dominant. His change was overwhelming for the Rays today often hitting 83mph while his fastball sat at 96 to 97mph. Castro threw a lot of change ups today which befuddled the Rays but most importantly his location with every pitch seemed down in the zone. The sound of Castro hitting the glove or a bat was simply different than any pitcher today. A thud popping sound occurs in the glove and a hollowed empty bat sound occurred on contact. Castro walked down the right field line after his outing & held his head high looking fresh and confident. He has a presence about him.
Bo Schultz came in & hit 97mph. He was impressive throwing strikes at high velocity (he's 29 so not a prospect but showed a power arm today). Chad Jenkins came in to close and simply burrows the ball down & in as much as possible. I think he is highly under-valued as a major league pitcher. Put a strong infield behind him & i like his chances at getting outs consistently.
Devon Travis is a very thickly built young man, reminds of a Running Back with large quads, hammies & glutes. He warmed up with Reyes pre-game & they seem to have great rapport. In the field he has quick feet & pivots well. At the dish he seems to have a plan and has a quick bat. I'm really a fan of this kid thus far.
Some long time Rays fans were sitting behind me & they were simply aghast over the power arms the Jays sent to the mound today with my favourite quotation being "this could be a tough year for us; these guys are filthy". Obviously, it is pre-mature but it is encouraging to see young confident power-arms having success at major league spring camp. The Jays are building a strong arsenal of young arms that seem likely to contribute in Toronto sooner & later.

Oceanbound - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#298554) #

Chacin probably needs shoulder surgery, so.... no.

jerjapan - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#298555) #

Thanks for the update Smaj - encouraging stuff, and I love that the Rays fans were nervous.

Lylemcr - Sunday, March 22 2015 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#298556) #

I can't admit my man-crush on Osuna until he turns 21.

But wow. They can't have both of them to start the year, but it is good to know we may a couple callups later in the year that could make a difference.

Mike Green - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#298557) #

Your Monday morning blast of cold courtesy of THT. Another study on recovery rates from Tommy John surgery which points out how limited the median recovery is. Interestingly, the best results were achieved (for major league pitchers) with return to MLB 14-20 months after surgery. The results were significantly worse for returns in less time and in more time.

Mike Green - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#298559) #

Happy birthday, Mark Buehrle. The March 23 team has a couple of PCL stars who made it big in the majors in their 30s:

C- Bo Diaz
1B- Lee May
2B- Fred Parkinson
SS- Johnny Logan
3B- George Scott
LF- Mike Smith (also SP)
CF- Homer Smoot
RF- Gavvy Cravath

Bench- Peaches Graham (C), Jim Lemon (OF), Chile Gomez (Middle IF), Farmer Weaver (early Cesar Tovar), Johnny Moore (OF)

SP- Mark Buehrle
SP- Rey Kremer
SP- Bruce Howard
SP- Danny Combs
SP- Mike Smith

Ace- Dellin Betances
SU- Joel Peralta
LH- Mike Remlinger
MI- Jack Meyer
LR- Lou Lucier

There are no Hall of Famers (yet), but some awfully good players. It's just a bit thin. Ideally, you'd like to have a real third baseman, so you could DH May and play the great Scott at first base.

cruzin - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#298560) #

As we get into the final days of ST, we're all getting excited about the potential rookies making an impact on this team. It feels like this year's success will be determined by them. It feels a bit akin to the Yankees of the mid 90s and their cour four, allow me to dream of success like theirs.

Sanchez, Norris, Pompey, Travis, Castro, Osuna

Now we brought up the topic of manipulating service time to get an extra year before FA. Should it be something that should even be contemplated?

Sanchez, accrued over 2 months last year, too hard time to adjust for
Norris, only has sept accured time, if optioned for about 6weeks could delay FA
Pompey, same as Norris
Travis, not on 40man, if optioned for 2weeks during year would delay FA
Castro, same as Travis
Osuna, same as Travis and Castro

So 2 players which would require significant time time in minors, which would only happen if they aren't doing well or if another player (pillar in pompeys case) is playing a lot better to squeeze them out of playing time.
Another 3 players which would need to be added to the 40man removing fringe players which we wouldn't lose much sleep over.

Given that AA needs to win this year and a heavy AL east schedule the first month or so, we'll probably take the best players without consideration of service time, 40man or options.

Anyway, spring hopes eternal but looks like AA has hitched his future on the farm system he rebuilt to produce at the MLB level this year. Looking forward to what the home grown talent is able to bring. Having 6 studs reaching free agency at the same time may be a good problem to have afterall, after they've won a few WS along the way :D

Mike Green - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#298561) #

Mark Buehrle helps Daniel Norris by telling him to slow down. What works for me may not be what works for you...

I never thought of the analogy between pitching and making music, but the focus on rhythm and timing seems to be common to both.

China fan - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#298563) #

".....Given that AA needs to win this year...."

So many people seem to assume that this is true. It's become conventional wisdom: AA will be sacked if he fails to make the playoffs. Is this really true? What is the evidence for it? There are some obvious arguments against it. Ricciardi was given 8 years as GM without making the playoffs, so why would Anthopoulos be fired after 6 years? If the Jays are contenders in 2015, with attendance higher than in the Ricciardi years, with a strong farm system, with many good young players on the roster, and with no albatross contracts and the payroll still at a reasonable level (i.e. nowhere near Boston or Yankee levels), why would AA necessarily be fired? If he creates excitement about the team this year, if he's laid a strong foundation for future growth with exciting young talent and great prospects, why would he get the sack? I just question the unthinking assumption that many people have that AA is "fighting for his job" or "knows he needs to win."

The other corollary, according to some people, is that AA might somehow sacrifice the future by trying to win this year. After 21 years of the team failing to make the playoffs, why shouldn't he try to win this year? He should certainly be trying to do everything possible to make the playoffs this year -- everything short of dumping his best prospects for aging veterans, which he certainly hasn't done to any extreme. Yes, he traded a few good prospects (Syndergaard, d'Arnaud, Alvarez) but he didn't mortgage the future because the Jays, by consensus, still have a top-10 farm system. While acquiring good veterans like Dickey and Buehrle and Reyes, he has still managed to keep (and acquire) an impressive collection of great prospects: Sanchez, Norris, Castro, Osuna, Travis, Pompey etc. He's got a great balance of youth and experience. Why would he necessarily be sacked, unless the Jays visibly do worse this season and don't come anywhere near the playoffs? I think a lot of people should question their assumptions here.

bpoz - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#298564) #

There is talk about AA being on shaky ground.

If the team wins 90 games, his job is safe IMO. 85 games is a maybe safe. 85 should not be hard to do IMO.

What AA has against him IMO is that he increased payroll in 2013, without getting any real increase in wins. By that I mean getting to the next level 88-91 wins. The increased expectations of 2013 and the disappointment created a gloomy future, in the minds of many.

So for me, this team has to win enough and show promising advances by some young players. Hutchison and Stroman looked like locks to show this promise if they stay healthy. The positive opinions and praise for all the other rookies has to translate into actual good performances for a positive future outlook.

bpoz - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#298566) #

I started writing my post before CF's post got on line.

Many good points by CF. But AA's record is bad IMO. If anyone disagrees with that please say so. IF 2015 produces a worse record than 2014 then someone is being very patient with AA. Which would be lucky for AA considering the strong farm system he built finally contributing.

HS & young Intl picks need a long time to mature. The 2010 signees have played for 4 years... 11,12, 13 and 2014. I do not count the small playing time of 2010 due to the old signing deadline.

viktor_haag - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#298568) #

Re: Tommy John -- while overall I like the point of the article (TJ is no panacea), I think it's presentation of the "useful rehab time" might be a bit mixing apple's and oranges. It seems that one could say that historically "coming back too early ended up correlating with a lower success rate", but I'm not sure how you can tell the difference between those people who "took too much time" and would have benefitted from the sweet spot of rehab time and those whose longer rehab time was merely an indication that they were closer to the "surgery just wouldn't help at all" category, and whether that difference is meaningful or not.

What I mean is, perhaps the real reason many of the rehab stints were longer than the sweet spot is down to problems in the rehab not even allowing a shorter stint and not necessarily being "too conservative", and I'm not sure this analysis has any hope of showing it.

Whatever the case, TJ-'d pitchers seem to be instantly a much lower-value commodity than one might think, the numbers are quite plainly there, which leads me to wonder whether TJ surgery is being overhyped by agents and players who want longer, richer deals despite troubles which really should limit their value?

cruzin - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#298569) #

"So many people seem to assume that this is true. It's become conventional wisdom: AA will be sacked if he fails to make the playoffs. Is this really true?"

That's certainly a fair question, however we do know by all accounts this will be Beeston's last year. When the new president gets hired and assuming it's not AA getting promoted, chances are the new president is going to bring in a new GM as their guy. Now if AA makes the playoffs, it's a lot harder for said new president to replace AA with his own guy for GM. It doesn't take a giant leap to connect these dots and make this a logical assumption even if it hasn't been confirmed as fact, as that confirmation one way or another isn't forthcoming.

uglyone - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#298570) #

there is something to be said about the fact that AA has:

1. built what looks to be a great system.
2. built a roster that at least the projections and prognosticators have liked the last 3yrs, which might indicate some bad luck rather than bad roster.
3. finished with similar standings rank as payroll rank, even with arguably more injuries than should have been expected.

China fan - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#298571) #

"....chances are the new president is going to bring in a new GM as their guy...."

Interesting point, but does the data support it? Do new presidents in MLB usually hire a new GM as soon as they become president, or do they often wait a year or two? I don't know, but I'll bet there are Bauxites who can provide some data or examples to illuminate this question, even if it's anecdotal.

Ryan Day - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#298572) #

Do new presidents in MLB usually hire a new GM as soon as they become president, or do they often wait a year or two?

I hope he doesn't wait a year or two, because that means a year or two of stories speculating on whether or not Anthopoulos is a lame duck, and who's really calling the shots. I hope the new president either sacks or extends AA within a few months of taking the job.

Of course, this depends on who the president is. Someone like Duquette, who had a lot of hands-on front office experience, would view AA differently than someone like Paul Beeston, who was basically an accountant & businessman who just happened to work in baseball.

Mike Green - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#298574) #

There are definitely limitations in the TJ study. If you take any group of pitchers, injured or otherwise and of pretty much any age, the median number of subsequent appearances is fewer than one might expect. It is the difference between the random group of pitchers without TJ and the TJ pitchers of the same age that you want to know.

Richard S.S. - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#298576) #

GM Dave Stewart may still want Dioner Navarro but not at $5.0 MM. https://twitter.com/SteveGilbertMLB/status/580052889810300928 and https://twitter.com/nickpiecoro/status/580053219465768962
It's possible he doesn't want to give anything of value up. It's easier if $$$$ out and $$$$ in are closer.

Miguel Castro pitched 80.1 IP last year. His chances of pitching as an innings limit-free Starter before 2019 are remote. So when does Tommy John hit, if ever? That would extend his arrival time to 2020 or later. He's presently the best pitcher on this team, with the best stuff and the best control. Over the next few years, he's likely to be buried in newer arrivals. I'd really like to see how well his stuff plays before that happens.

Even if everything possible goes wrong, this team is in good shape going forward. This will be Mark Buehrle's ($19.0 MM) last year. As well, it's the last year for Rickey Romero ($7.5 MM), Marco Estrada ($3.9 MM) and Maicer Izturis ($3.0 MM) If not traded it's also the last year for Dioner Navarro ($5.0). Even with normal increases and picking up Dickey's, Bautista's and Encarnacion's options, that significant savings. Despite what is being said, I can't see any reason to replace A.A.

Richard S.S. - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#298577) #

I heard things about the Rotation that are interesting and make sense. The Jays are doing everything possible to maximise winning the first nine games. They want Drew Hutchison pitching in both New York and Baltimore. They want R.A. Dickey to pitch in New York and at least twice under the Dome. They do not want Mark Buehrle to pitch in New York, but they want to pitch a LH at the lefty dominant NY hitters. Using common sense and not running out back-to-back LHPs, the rotation is simple.

April 6th, at New York: Drew Hutchison
April 7th, Off Day.
April 8th, at New York: R.A. Dickey
April 9th, at New York: Daniel Norris

April 10th, at Baltimore: Aaron Sanchez
April 11th, at Baltimore: Mark Buehrle
April 12th, at Baltimore: Drew Hutchison

April 13th, vs Tampa Bay: R.A. Dickey
April 14th, vs Tampa Bay: Daniel Norris
April 15th, vs Tampa Bay: Aaron Sanchez
April 16th, vs Tampa Bay: Mark Buehrle

April 17th, vs Atlanta: Drew Hutchison
April 18th, vs Atlanta: R.A. Dickey
April 19th, vs Atlanta: Daniel Norris

April 20th, Off Day. Here is where any changes could be made to the Rotation if needed.
April 21st - 23rd, vs Baltimore.

I don't know how accurate my information is but if I've pieced together the right stuff, it should be interesting season to come.

scottt - Monday, March 23 2015 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#298578) #

Do new presidents in MLB usually hire a new GM as soon as they become president, or do they often wait a year or two?

A guy who needs a year or two to decide who he wants to run his team is not a guy you would want for president.

China fan - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#298579) #

"....Do new presidents in MLB usually hire a new GM as soon as they become president, or do they often wait a year or two?...."

Forgive me for phrasing this poorly. I thought my meaning was clear, but apparently it wasn't. Of course I wasn't suggesting that a new president would allow a lame-duck GM to drift on from inertia and indecision. I was simply suggesting that a new president wouldn't necessarily fire his GM but might instead decide to extend the GM's contract. I was querying the assumption that a new president would automatically hire a new GM. Still waiting for evidence for and against this assumption, but I think the Duquette point is a very good one: if Duquette is hired, he might have less need for Anthopoulos. Still, even in that scenario I don't think the outcome is known for certain.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 08:05 AM EDT (#298580) #

On one other post, The D-backs is noted for a need of starting catcher. Can the Jays just trade Navarro to D-backs for Tuffy Gosewich and cash consideration or PTBNL, and Barnes, who is out of option, to the Rockies for cash consideration and/or PTBNL ?

Gosewich can play in Buffalo. Thole will again be Dickey's catcher and probably more playing time.

Catcher depth:
1) Martin
2) Navarro
3) Thole
4) Jimenez
5) Gosewich
6) etc.

The Jays trade away a #2 for a #5, and use the cash for budget ? In essence, Gosewich is this season Nickeas, whom I hope he works well as a coach.

uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#298581) #

I don't get the rush to trade navarro. He's much better than Thole. why are we in a rush to make the team worse?

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#298582) #

Someone made the suggestion that if Navarro is the back-up catcher, he should regularly catch Buehrle because they worked together well last year. I agree with the suggestion and would add that Buehrle helps to negate Navarro's so/so arm with his superior ability to hold runners. Let Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez (or Estrada) benefit from Martin's framing/receiving skills and throwing arm.

China fan - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#298583) #

"....I don't get the rush to trade navarro...."

To be fair, the desire to trade Navarro was based on several assumptions, which turned out to be false:
1) The assumption that only Thole could catch Dickey. Seems to be false, since Martin can do it, but this was only known for certain in the past week or two. So, demote Thole, keep Navarro.
2) The assumption that Navarro would have a lot of trade value as a starting catcher. Turns out that almost every team is already content with their starting catcher, or at least feels that Navarro isn't any better than what they've got. The main exception is Arizona -- but they're not making the playoffs this season anyway, so they might see little reason to pay $5-million for a catcher who becomes a free agent at the end of the season.
3) The assumption that Smoak would be fine at 1B. This now seems a lot less clear, despite his two-HR game. If Smoak isn't good enough for 1B, and if Encarnacion shifts to 1B full-time or even part-time, the Jays need one or more players to help out at DH, and Navarro would be one of them.
4) The assumption that the Jays would be desperate for a good reliever and would need to trade Navarro to get one. Turns out that their bullpen looks okay as is, due to Castro and Delabar looking good and due to Estrada probably not being needed in the rotation.

At this point, keeping Navarro as the back-up catcher and part-time DH and pinch-hitter looks like a good idea, if the Jays don't need Thole. Of course that's still not absolutely certain. There are reports that Gibbons would like Martin to concentrate fully on the non-knuckleball pitchers, to maximize his value with them, whereas Anthopoulos would prefer to demote Thole and keep 2 catchers only. And if a contending team suddenly loses a top catcher to injury and desperately wants to trade for Navarro, everything will change. We'll see what happens.

China fan - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#298584) #

By the way, the other technical objection to keeping Navarro (and demoting Thole) is that Martin could get injured in the middle of the game, forcing Navarro to switch from DH to catcher, which would cost the Jays their DH. So the pitcher would have to bat instead. But my feeling is: 1) this is a remote possibility; 2) it would happen, at most, once in the season -- unless Martin is prone to minor injuries, which doesn't seem true; 3) if a pitcher has to bat once or twice in an AL game, this would probably happen just once in a season, so it's not a big deal. The remote possibility of this happening isn't outweighed by the greater advantage of having Navarro as DH (if he's on the team anyway, and if Encarnacion is at 1B).

cybercavalier - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#298585) #

Although I wish not getting into a debate or whatnots for discussing the rush to trade Navarro. To be fair:

1) Even if only Thole could catch Dickey, Navarro can be demoted to Buffalo, without considering losing him as long as he is on the 40-men roster

3) Depending on how valuable Navarro's offensive skills to Jays' lineup, could players at 1B and DH, the other positions Navarro could play, outperform Navarro ?

4) Bullpen need or non-need as a basis of keeping or trading Navarro is irreverent because their bullpen looks okay as is with the probability for likes of Jenkins, Francis, Santana looking from the outside. In other words, the reliever in Toronto shows depth.

2) Depending on the D-backs' need, why would they not aim for better performance despite not contending this season ? Does getting one player - Navarro - suddenly would make the D-backs a contending or greatly improve their performances ? In other words, Navarro is not valuable in trade value despite the media hype and so the D-backs can get Navarro for a reasonable value. From the Jays' perspective, shall they stay put and wait for a sudden loss of a top catcher on a contending team ?

So as things appear now, Navarro shall stay with the Jays.....

uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#298586) #

bench bats are important. last year we gave ~2200pa to guys who weren't in our starting 9 last year. 550pa per bench slot. the rest of our division ranged from 1600 to 2400, or 400-600 per slot. That is way too much offense to just give away to non-mlb quality hitters.

this year we seem to have bench guys who have actually shown the ability to hit a bit in mlb.....even if that mostly comes as the short half of a platoon split.

and as for the part about losing the DH to an in game catcher injury, that seems besides the point. If smoak can just hold his own vRHP, then there won't be any healthy DH at bats for navarro anyways. What navarro gives us is injury cover for injuries to any of Martin, EE, Smoak, or Valencia - a capable bat to put in the lineup if any of those guys can't go. and if any of the 1b/dh guys go on the dl we can always call up thole at that point anyways...unless there's a hot bat we'd rather call up to fill that 1b/dh slot directly.

and then of course if martin hits the dl at some point we don't have to start thole everyday for weeks.

and for all the criticism of navarro defensively, the starters seemed to like him just fine - both vets like Buehrle and happ, and the kids stro and hutch. he seemed to handle the staff pretty dang well.

and I don't know why we get so focused on personal catchers - imo the beauty of getting rid of thole is that it frees us from all that. navarro is a backup that you can play with all but one pitcher, while thole is a guy you want playing only with one pitcher - and even then you do it only because you have to, with gritted teeth. having navarro as backup frees us up to rest martin based on more relevant factors - like whether he's banged up, or whether its a day after night game, or if the opposing pitcher is a good matchup for navarro or a bad one for martin - rather than being forced to play thole every 5th day no matter what, and be reluctant to rest martin any other day.

I guess the bottom line is that thole only makes us a worse team. even with Dickey we'd rather martin be in the lineup. navarro on the other hand gives us a valuable bench bat which can help us in all sorts of situations.

Now of course he's tradeable for value....but are we even sure what holes we need to adress? all the holes in the roster look like they're going to be filled with legit promising kids - at this point we're probably best served to see which ones flop before moving our best trade piece. Not to mention that there WILL be some injured catchers this year...at which point his price could skyrocket...especially if we've used him carefully in good matchups to goose his numbers.

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#298587) #

I was not suggesting a hard and fast rule. I was merely suggesting that it would be beneficial to give Martin more days off when Buehrle is pitching than on other occasions. So, in day game after night game situations where Buehrle is pitching one, let Navarro catch Buehrle.

Last year, Hutchison pitched exceptionally well with no one on base and got banged about with runners on. His move is not very good and a little help from the catcher might go a long way.

85bluejay - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#298588) #

For me, moving Navarro is an easy call - Yes, Navarro is better than Thole & Martin can probably can Dickey adequately, but from former catchers that I've heard (Joe Siddall & previously Alan Ashby who caught a Knuckler) catching a knuckle ball pitcher takes so much out of you that it takes days to recover - do we want to subject Martin to that & wear him down - we want Martin catching the 3 kids & Navarro can't catch Dickey, which leaves only Buehrle - I'd rather have Thole catching Dickey & Martin catching everyone else without having to endure the physical punishment of catching Dickey. I want EE as the everyday DH, his bat is too valuable to risk that back at 1B - Valencia is likely the 1B against LHP - I'd rather have Smoak/Barton at 1B against RHP with EE at DH - the marginal ops advantage with Navarro is more than negated by better defence, Navarro not clogging the bases & protecting EE's back (Smoak did put up an .839 OPS against RHP in 2013 in Seattle), in fact I'm confident that Smoak will outproduce Navarro against RHP this year. Also, clearing that 5m off the budget will be a nice chip to have if the team is contending in July - when the jays trade Navarro, I want a prospect not on the 40 man roster in return.

The problem with trading Navarro is that teams know the jays desire to move him so there is a cat & mouse game regarding his acquisition cost - AA saying he would only trade Navarro to a team that would make him their #1 catcher is all about value, after all, it's none of the jays business how his new team uses Navarro - I suspect it's the same thing with Dave Stewart saying Navarro is too expensive for them.

I suspect that to start the season, the jays will option Thole & keep Navarro as the 2nd catcher & wait for the 1st opportunity to dump him.

I also hope the jays can move Estrada and his salary - I don't think there's much difference between Hendriks & Estrada as the long men/ spot starter & I'd rather keep the cheap Hendriks and have the extra spending money for July.

PeterG - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#298589) #

agree with moving Navarro but not Estrada a we are a bit short on pitching depth as it is. I must be the only one who thinks Thole is a better catcher than Navarro but starting to wonder if some GM's agree.

uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#298590) #

the only way what you say makes sense, 85jays, is if you believe navarro and estrada have little chance to be above replacememt value....and every number disagrees with that.

Four Seamer - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#298591) #

Reading all of this back and forth on Navarro/Thole has convinced me of one thing: R.A. Dickey really ought to have been traded this off-season, if only to spare us all this agony.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#298593) #

Let's assume there are two significant dates for this Team. There's the Season Opener in New York on the 6th of April. Then there's the Home Opener on the 13th of April. We have Question Marks about who starts when. For some, it's all about getting 110% healthy. For others who are now healthy, it's about getting enough reps at the plate. John Gibbons said, "30 is fine, 60 is best." In other words that's one or two weeks or 7-14 games. Right now there's only 12 Spring Training games remaining.

Michael Saunders is about as healthy as he can get, but has barely started getting back. To this best of my knowledge, he's still not in any S.T. games. Season Opener is possible, but iffy.

Sneezy will have recurring issues because of too tight muscles? Wow! He's not expected to play games before the 24th or 25th. Even the Home Opener is not possible, not enough reps available.

Andy Dirks should be healthy about now, but may still be 30-45 or more games away even if 110% healthy.

Edwin Encarnacion is too vital to this offense to risk in the field except in an emergency. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5904/edwin-encarnacion This indicates he's back in games starting Thursday. That might give him 30-40 reps before Season Opener. He'll know if he can play.

Maicer Izturis is in the beginning of a 10-day shutdown of any Baseball/Other activities. He will not make Season Opener. Making the Home Opener is very questionable.

Ramon Santiago is out until at least mid-May. He needs to heal 110% and get in enough reps to regain his timing.

All indicators have Brett Cecil rejoin the Team now and pitching in live games. It's been suggested (by him) that six games should be enough to get up to speed. I have my doubts. Season Opener is probably a given.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#298594) #

For others who are now healthy, it's about getting enough reps at the plate. John Gibbons said, "30 is fine, 60 is best." In other words that's one or two weeks or 7-14 games. Right now there's only 12 Spring Training games remaining.

Cannot find the Gibbons' quote by googling. May I get a source of it ?

According to Spring Training Stats on MLB.com, the following players have more than 20 PA and over 650 OPS

Travis, Pompey, Gindl, Goins, Donaldson, Martin, Reyes, Bautista, Pillar, Valencia, Viciedo, Thole, Navarro, Colabello = 14 players

2B Travis
CF Pompey
LF Gindl/Pillar
SS Reyes
3B Donaldson
C Martin
RF Bautista
1B Valencia/Navarro/Thole
DH Colabello

Bench
IF Goins
OF Viciedo + Gindl/Pillar
C Thole
C Navarro

Buffalo:
1B Smoak
DH EE
LF Barton or Tolleson
CF Carrera
RF Dickerson
SS Diaz
2B Kawasaki
3B Hague
C Jimenez

bench
IF Izturis
IF Santiago
IF Diaz/Barton
C Ochinko/Murphy

Dirks ?
Saunders ?
------------

Take someone off 40 men roster and put Gindl in ?
Train both Thole and Navarro for 1B ?
Can Valencia start the season as a 1B ? His OPS on L/R split is about equal but much more slugging versus LHP. His 3B availability could be appealing to some other teams.
When EE and/or Saunders is back, the Jays shall decide what to do with Viciedo ?

jerjapan - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#298595) #

The ongoing "Every team's moneyball" series at BP has been highly enjoyable, and most of it is free content for non-subscribers. The premise is that every team has one prominent, unique strategy that they use well to gain a competitive advantage. The Giants pay for performance certainty, spending a lot on mid-tier players to decrease performance volatility, the A's will try anything (short pitchers? tall pitchers? flyball hitters?), the Pirates will spend in unusual areas (setting a record for signing 2nd round draftee Josh Bell for a cool five million, signing Korean IF Jung-Ho Kang), and the Dodgers appear to have unlimited financial resources.

So what do you guys think is the Jay's moneyball? AA's unique approach to the draft, getting 2nd round comp picks for mediocre FAs until that practice was banned, and punting picks to free up slot bonus money to nab high end talent? upgrading to elite players at areas of moderate talent (catcher, 3B) while leaving potential replacement level guys at RP, 2nd and 1st - Who can theoretically be easily replaced if they don't pan out? Something else?

China fan - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#298596) #

".....the Dodgers appear to have unlimited financial resources...."

Well, that's a very different definition of "moneyball" -- not exactly the Billy Beane version -- but might still work!

Meanwhile, some more clarity from today's pre-season games. Travis had two more hits, going 2-2 against the Twins today. How can the Jays not give him the 2B job at this point? (With the back-up job going to Goins or Tolleson.) Encarnacion hit well in a minor-league game today and seemed to have no health issues at all, so that's reassuring and it suggests that the Jays can still use him at 1B if they're unhappy with Smoak (who went hitless in two ABs today). Jenkins and Drabek did not pitch well -- their chances of making the opening-day bullpen seem to be fading. Redmond looked good; he remains a lock for a bullpen slot.

One of the under-the-radar guys is relief pitcher Bo Schultz. He again pitched a perfect inning today. So far, in 7 spring innings, he's only allowed one hit, two walks, and no runs. He might not make the bullpen on opening day, but he's got a good chance to contribute to the Jays this season. The story of how the reached the majors is a fascinating one. Just a few years ago, he was playing bar-league softball in Brooklyn, while working as an intern at "Men's Journal" magazine. Here's the story on him from Vice:

https://sports.vice.com/article/bo-schultzs-long-road-from-williamsburg-bar-softball-to-the-american-league-east

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#298597) #

How can the Jays not give him the 2B job at this point? (With the back-up job going to Goins or Tolleson.)

They might send Travis down for service time reasons. Not that I think that would be a good idea. If Travis is the opening day second baseman, I anticipate that Goins will be the back-up middle infielder because he can play shortstop.

Travis has been banging out line drive after line drive, with enough pop to keep defences honest. Watching him brings me back to those Pirate second basemen of the 70s and 80s from Dave Cash to Rennie Stennett to Johnny Ray. He's a little shorter than those guys. Ray got a late start as Travis has.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#298598) #

If you want to find the John Gibbons quote try the 10 AM Jeff Blair Show Podcast of March 19th. I work 12 hour day shifts and night shifts (no Wi-Fi) so even being busy I can still listen to Podcasts, a lot of them (no data used). I find if you don't listen, you don't stay current with what happens. It all depends if you've got enough space on your phone. Voice podcasts use 20-50 MB for 12-44 minutes, while video podcasts use 480-550 MB or more for 42-45 minutes.

Four Seamer - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#298599) #

Mike, I agree entirely that delaying his start for service time reasons isn't a bright idea (whether he's the best option at 2b for opening day I leave to more astute talent observers, though it certainly looks like that way to these distinctly amateur eyes at the moment). Not fielding your best lineup, for any length of time, in order to delay the service clock of a player who by virtue of his position and skill set when it comes to the counting stats isn't going to command huge dollars in arbitration in any event strikes me as absurd. Worrying about whether he will be a free agent in six years or seven also seems preposterous to me - there are obviously a handful of players every few years who seem like very strong bets to have superstar careers and for whom that extra year seven years out has significant meaning (e.g., the Longoria's and Bryant's), but let's face facts: many of the players we talk about in his context won't even be in the league in six years, let alone walking as free agents.

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#298600) #

Four Seamer, I think that it's a little more complicated than that (and if I have made a mistake, I am sure someone will correct me). Let's say you call up Travis 3 weeks into the season rather than starting him with the big club. After 2017 he has less than 3 years service time rather than having 3 years. He is a Super Two, but he'll get noticeably less in arbitration than if he had 3 years (see Donaldson,J). After 2018, he has less than 4 years service time rather than having 4 years, and he'll get quite a bit less. It's not so much the extra year before free agency as the difference in salaries for each year in arbitration that might be considered important for a 24 year old player of Travis' quality.

All that said, winning in 2015 or 2016 seems more achievable than in other years and it seems a shame to field less than one's best club now because of a relatively modest additional expenditure 3 years from now.

scottt - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#298601) #

They might send Travis down for service time reasons.

That's ridiculous. The guy doesn't have enough upside to rank as a prospect. That's the equivalent of signing Mario Scutaro on a 10 year deal.

uglyone - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#298602) #

always easier when guys play themselves out of a spot. bubble guys can't afford many slip ups at this point, especially when other guys aren't.

today Jenkins drabek barnes likely earned a demotion while hynes hendriks schultz kept themselves in competition.

viciedo isn't earning a spot and goins' chance at starting is dissappearing as his hot streak fades....and whike travis just keeps heating up.

its starting to feel a little weird - almost all the guys we want on the team are playing well this spring, while the guys we don't aren't. that never happens.

speaking of travis, I wonder when someone is gonna bust out a comp to another 5'9" linedrive machine AL East 2B...

Four Seamer - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#298603) #

Mike, I agree entirely that concerns about modest payroll escalations three and four years out should not be driving lineup decisions in April for a team with playoff aspirations. Unless Travis wildly exceeds the expectations of most observers (although maybe not yours, as I know you're quite bullish on him!) he isn't going to command a king's ransom in arbitration (especially in the context of a team with a $130 million payroll), and if he does, that would be quite the nice problem to have (ie, paying Maicer Izturis money for Josh Donaldson's performance).

scottt - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#298604) #

Let's say you call up Travis 3 weeks into the season rather than starting him with the big club. After 2017 he has less than 3 years service time rather than having 3 years. He is a Super Two, but he'll get noticeably less in arbitration than if he had 3 years (see Donaldson,J).

Not really. Donaldson got too little because he asked way too much. Arbitration would depend on the performance of the player. We're not looking at an all-star here.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#298605) #

Devon Travis should be the Starting 2nd Baseman on this Team commencing April 6th. He rates to be an average to above average 2nd Baseman for his career. Any discussion of super two status or extending control for another year might just be premature. A.A. (or to make everyone happy, the new GM) might acquire an upgrade here at any time. The Jays might have an upgrade currently in the system. I don't know who gets drafted but an upgrade could be drafted soon. I don't think anyone should worry about Travis beyond this Season, until the Season's over.

Mike Green - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#298606) #

Not really. Donaldson got too little because he asked way too much. Arbitration would depend on the performance of the player. We're not looking at an all-star here.

That was the point that I got wrong. I thought that Donaldson's performance was so obviously great that he would get big dollars (hypobole correctly thought the contrary). As it happens, the $ amounts awarded to Super Twos seems to be significantly less than first year arbs. It certainly is the case that the $ awarded to first year arbs is less than to second year arbs.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#298607) #

When A.A. talked about "the Elephant in the Room" I thought he was talking about Dioner Navarro, the extra, unneeded, out of shape and overweight third Catcher on this team. Until either Navarro or Dickey plus Thole get traded, this will always be a problem. So for any future discussion of who makes the team, let's ignore Navarro until he actually makes the team. That's the only time a problem will occur.

scottt - Tuesday, March 24 2015 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#298608) #

An other way to see it is that the last year salary is the starting point to calculate the next year salary. Like a raise in percentage.

rtcaino - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 01:54 AM EDT (#298610) #

Fangraphs posted it's positional power rankings for 2b. The Jays placed 30th.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-positional-power-rankings-second-base/

scottt - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#298611) #

That's assuming Izturis starts in April and Goins take over until August.

The Jays have a huge whole there unless Travis plays.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 06:36 AM EDT (#298612) #

Thank Rich S.S. for information.

For others who are now healthy, it's about getting enough reps at the plate. John Gibbons said, "30 is fine, 60 is best." In other words that's one or two weeks or 7-14 games. Right now there's only 12 Spring Training games remaining.
Until either Navarro or Dickey plus Thole get traded, this will always be a problem. So for any future discussion of who makes the team, let's ignore Navarro until he actually makes the team. That's the only time a problem will occur.

According to D-Backs`Spring Training Stats on MLB.com, the D-Backs`catchers did not achieve enough PAs to show the usefulness of their OPS. However, aged 31 C/1B Blake Lalli and aged 29 C/1B/3B Jordan Pacheco are hitting well. Because of their position versatility, Navarro could be a full-time catcher if traded.

Just package Navarro, Scott Barnes to the D-backs ? In other words, shall the Jays trade away out-of-options players who do not make the team for cash consideration or PTBNL ?

John Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#298613) #

Any article that says Goins will get over 300 PA is getting a big question mark from me. No way that happens unless Reyes is hurt a lot this year. I see Travis getting 450 PA at 2B as being far more likely. Especially with Izturis hurt. If you cut Goins to 100 PA and triple Travis' to 525 you get an extra 1 WAR which pushes the Jays from 30th to 25th between the Diamondbacks and SanFran. Still not good but a heck of a lot better. We need a prospect to come up and tear the cover off here as AA seems unable to find a trading partner for 2B outside of Travis.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#298614) #

I don't know how the team could reconcile promoting Castro while leaving Travis in the minors. Castro's younger, rawer, and probably has more star potential, but he's making the team because he's better than any of the other options. It may or may not be a good idea, but it's definitely a "Win Now" move. Travis should be the same - he's better, perhaps by a wide margin, than any of the other 2B options.

The only argument against Travis would be that they want Goins' glove in the lineup - but if they were considering starting Izturis, they probably weren't that focused on defence to begin with.

bpoz - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#298616) #

All the teams have to make their last cuts at some time. My guess is 1-3 days before the season starts. Over the last 5 years there have to have been a few mistakes made. I mean that someone picked up your out of options cast off and it paid off handsomely.

Since most teams do not make the post season. How many have actually lost it with a horrible April. I remember Boston having a V Bad start to a season a few years ago. And twice the Jays had a bad start and it cost the manager his job.
As fans we never give up in April & early May because there is time for a hot streak.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#298617) #

Izturis will be back on the Team as soon as he's healthy with some ABs in. He was making the Team because he's paid $3.0 MM for this year with $3.0 MM and a $1.0 MM buyout for next year. Under no conditions were they letting him go if not injured because he plays the position fairly well, and what he has now is rather minor. The Jays are already paying out a lot of money for Players not on the Team, they're not adding more. At the same time, Travis wasn't yet hitting the ball that well or as consistently as he is now. Goins is and probably always will be an afterthought when considering who to take, because he still has options. Until he shows he can hit up here, that won't change. But to show you can hit up here, you need to play up here.

Miguel Castro is making the Jays Starting 25 for several very good reason. He throws very free easy and repeatable and plus, plus. His command and control is very consistent and plus, plus. His stuff is basically plus, plus, plus. The only reason you send someone down is to improve on these things and I don't think it's of any value. He just needs to pitch innings against the best opposition he can find. It might as well be up here as anywhere else. He's consistently been the Best Pitcher in the Organization. I personally think if they had been paying as much attention to him as they were to their draftees, they'd have had him in AA at the end of last year. He spent too much time in the DSL in 2013, that slowed his rise.

With Maicer not being ready for the Season Openers and Ramon Santiago being on the D.L., both Devon Travis and Ryan Goins as frontrunners for the 2B (Travis)and Middle Infielder (Goins) spots on the Team. Unfortunately both still have options left. Both Steve Tolleson (2B/SS/3B/LF/CF/RF) and Danny Valencia (1B/2B/3B/LF) are out of options. They hit very well against one type of Pitching and not so much against the other type, although that's seems to be changing. As such, they are much too valuable to lose.

BlueMonday - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#298618) #

I disagree with handing Travis the starting 2nd base job now rather than Ryan Goins. Goins defence is elite, while Travis projects as league average. We're going to need elite defence next to Reyes. Starting Travis now (rather than in AAA, a level he hasn't played at in regular season yet) will be a learning curve where our defence will suffer.

Goins has had 1 April where he didn't bat. I know its a stretch to put too much emphasis on spring training numbers, but this spring he is 294/368/839 compared to spring 2014 at 169/250/465. I think he deserves another April. Maybe his 2013 call up batting numbers weren't a tease after all.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#298619) #

Donaldson's elite range probably covers enough for reyes lack thereof. might even let him cheat to the middle.

it would be cool if we had fielding stat splits so we could see if reyes fared any better defensively when lawrie was healthy and playing 3rd.

cruzin - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#298620) #

"Interesting point, but does the data support it? "

I didn't go through any in depth research into the matter, but 2 of the presidents in my recent memory that got hired out of the ALE quickly brought in their own GMs FWIW. Friedman hired Zaidi and Epstein brought along Hoyer.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#298621) #

great test for norris today against the orioles 100% full starting lefty mashing lineup.

kevin pillar is back playing cf and hitting 3rd.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#298622) #

His spring training OPS on L/R split is about equal but much more slugging versus LHP. His 3B availability could be appealing to some other teams.

Both Steve Tolleson (2B/SS/3B/LF/CF/RF) and Danny Valencia (1B/2B/3B/LF) are out of options. They hit very well against one type of Pitching and not so much against the other type, although that's seems to be changing. As such, they are much too valuable to lose.

If Valencia can field 2B adequately, his performance solve much issue around 2B. Smoak is also out of option.

Jays
bench 2B, part-time starting 3B/1B Valencia
bench IF Goins/ Tolleson
bench OF Gindl/Pillar
C Thole

This still leave room for Travis as a starting 2B.

LF Bautista CF Pompey RF Gindl/Pillar
3B Donaldson
SS Reyes
2B ? - Izturis, Travis
1B Smoak
DH EE
C Martin

Would a trade package of Navarro, Izturis and out-of-option Barnes for Aaron Hill ? Hill, if his offense rebounds, shall hit better than Izturis and Navarro combined. Goins can be late-inning defensive sub such that Goins gets experience in "clutch" situation. Is paying $4M this season and $12M next season worth that rebound ? 2015 Jays is obviously in win now mode so I lean on getting much boost in one player than performances spread out in few players.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#298623) #

Correction: I meant trading for Hill will increase this season payroll by $4M.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#298624) #

I didn't go through any in depth research into the matter, but 2 of the presidents in my recent memory that got hired out of the ALE quickly brought in their own GMs FWIW. Friedman hired Zaidi and Epstein brought along Hoyer.

Too bad you really missed something interesting.

Ned Colletti (2006-2014 - Five National League West Titles)was replaced because: http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20141014/five-reasons-why-the-dodgers-replaced-ned-colletti He was hired to be Senior Advisor to Friedman. Friedman basically hired A.A. and gave him an unlimited budget.

Jim Hendry (2002-2011) was fired by Chairman Tom Ricketts (for being a bad GM) and replaced on an interim basis by Assistant GM Randy Bush. Hoyer represented a huge upgrade, but he's not better than A.A., just fewer restrictions.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#298625) #

Norris: 6.0ip, 3h, 1r, 0bb, 7k

against a 100% full lefty mashing orioles line up. only run came when he hit reimold and let joseph double him in.

I think he passed the test.

pillar also apparently smashed a dingerbin his 1st game back.

pooks137 - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#298626) #

If Valencia can field 2B adequately, his performance solve much issue around 2B.

I haven't been following ST too closely to know if he has had reps there, but I would just point out that I keep hearing that Valencia is an option at 2B, but he is considered to be a poor defensive 3B (lower on the defensive spectrum than 2B) and has never played any significant time at 2B at any professional level. And he's a poor defender now on the wrong side of 30

Other than as an emergency 2B option, I don't see Valencia contributing at 2B. It would be nice to have his platoon bat, but it seems unrealistic to have mediocre veterans try to learn defense-first positions at the MLB level

And a Reyes-Valencia-Encarnacion 3/4 infield is all kinds of terrible if Smoak doesn't make the team, even on a PT/platoon basis for Valencia

uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#298627) #

goins switched over to 3b this game. there's your bench IF. (and I can actually stomach him as our uber defense bench IF given that the other bench bats can all hit).

I think smoak gets a few week tryout no matter what.

and as far as odd scenarios like the ones above, I still think the most interesting one is pillar earning a fulltime gig and bautista moving to 1b.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#298628) #

I think chances of signing Jose Bautista to an extension beyond 2016 are remote. Jose is rated as an above average Right Fielder due to his powerful arm. He's been a game changer on defense. Playing at First totally negates that asset for him. Neither Jose nor his Agent will agree to anything that weakens his possible market. I suspect he'll play another 4-5 years, but his last three years might cost more than Toronto could pay.

Mike Green - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#298629) #

pillar also apparently smashed a dingerbin

When I first read this, I thought "first an oblique injury after sneezing and then a smash of the dingerbin, what in the name of Ruth is a dingerbin and how did Pillar manage to smash that first day back?". Maybe I need another coffee.

Mike Green - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#298631) #

John Lott reported on twitter that Norris added a sinking change which he learned in the bullpen this week. He used it today to K Adam Jones twice. Cool.

John Northey - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#298632) #

Maybe we need more guys to smash their dingerbin :)

uglyone - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#298638) #

heheh.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#298639) #

Marcus Stroman had his Surgery on or about the 19th. Recovery time varies from 4-6 months to 6-8 months. Four months is July 19th, five months is August 19th, while six months is September 19th. Now I don't know if Recovery time means ready to pitch in the MLB or ready to get back into shape? Just getting him back come mean something special.

Spifficus - Wednesday, March 25 2015 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#298650) #

I'm a huge fan of the dingerbin!
I'm also a huge fan of the way Norris was able to command the inside corner with his fastball against the plethora of righties he faced today. That was something to get a bit excited about.

cybercavalier - Thursday, March 26 2015 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#298691) #

Both Steve Tolleson (2B/SS/3B/LF/CF/RF) and Danny Valencia (1B/2B/3B/LF) are out of options.

According to this battersbox source, Valencia is a 2B option; however, I do agree that veterans learning defense-first position at the MLB level is unrealistic.

he is considered to be a poor defensive 3B (lower on the defensive spectrum than 2B) [...] And a Reyes-Valencia-Encarnacion 3/4 infield is all kinds of terrible if Smoak doesn't make the team, even on a PT/platoon basis for Valencia

Valencia seems to be the 1B at this time as he has improved based on ST stats on hitting RHP's but entertaining the thought in switching Reyes to 2B and Goins playing SS is a fun.

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